Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
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v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
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United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
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quarterly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
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statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
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Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
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UNITED STATES DEPARThE T OF AiGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

WS-11 September 23, 1937

THE WHEAT SI TU AT ION
Including Rye


Summary

Prospective world wheat supplies, according to the Bureau of Agricultural

Economics, indicate that, if disappearance in 1937-38 is about the same as the

average for the past 3 years, world stocks next summer will still be 50 million

bushels or more below the average which prevailed prior to the accumulation of

stocks in 1929-33. Prospective world supplies for the current year (beginning

July 1), excluding Soviet Russia and China, are now estimated to be about 60.

million bushels larger than the small supplies of 1936-37. Carry-over stocks,

now estimated at 210 million bushels less than last year, are more than offset

by a 270 million-bushel increase in the estimated world crop.

Carry-over stocks in European importing countries have been greatly

diminished and are now probably at or very near the low point, even considering

the next few years. Imports by Europe in 1937-38, however, are not expected to

increase stocks next July above present levels, unless the political situation

should become so tense as to bring about the desire for larger reserves. With

the rather high prevailing wheat price levels, together with the limited gold

supplies and financial and trade difficulties in many countries, any large

"reserve" purchases probably will be postponed as long as possible.

On the basis of present crop estimates, carryover stocks, and other in-

formation, it would appear that net imports by European importing countries may

be 40 million bushels less and imports by non-European countries also 40 million

bushels less in 1937-3.8 than in 1936-37. Total imports of this size would still





WS-11 2 -

be above the levels of 1934-35 and 1935-36. Because of the smaller quantity

available for export from'the Danube Basin countries, the European imports frolL

overseas countries and Soviet Russia may-not be very much below those of last

year. Smaller non-European imports are largely due to the United States going

from an import to an export basis.

Exports from the United States in 1917-38, on the basis.of present world

supply estimates, may be expected to be close to 100 million bushels. Exports

of this size would leave the United States carry-over next July near 200 million

bushels, which is considerably below 326 million bushels, the average for the 5

years 1930-34, when stocks were large: Thus far this season exports of United

States wheat and flour have been small. Importing countries have been postpon-

ing purchases awaiting a more definite appraisal o the size of the Southern

Hemisphere crops and Russian shipments, but it is probable that they will in-

crease their purchases before long.

Yields based on weather conditions to date and reported acreage now Indi-
/
cate a production of 205 million bushels for Argentina and 155 million bishdLs-

f6r Australia, which represents a net decrease of 38 million bushels for the two

countries compared with the crop -of last year.

Soviet grain exports, as usual, remain largely a matter of conjecture,

being dependent upon government policy. The apparently good 1937 crop in Soviet

Russia and the high level of prices favor fairly large Russian exports this

year. In the years 1933-34 and 1935-36, Soviet Russia exported 34 million

bushels and 29 million bushels, respectively.

The 1937 rye crop in the 25 European countries for which reports are

now available is indicated to be about 806 million bushels, or 40 million bushels








WS-11


less than the small 1936 crop. This production is the smallest since the very

mall harvest of 1951. With greatly reduced supplies in European countries,

unless Russia unexpectedly enters the export market in volume, significant

exports of rye from the United States are probable this year.


THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Total world supplies of wheat', after in-
creasing from 1929 to 1933, declined sharply as a result
of successive years of small production and increased world
demand. Apparent world disappearance has averaged about
3,775 million bushels during the past 10 -years. World
market prices of wheat have moved steadily upward since
the spring of 1933, reflecting higher world commodity
price levels, four successive below average harvests in
North America, and the 1935-36 short Southern Hemisphere
crop, World prices during 1936-37 advanced sharply as a
result of increased demand and the smallest supplies in
recent years.

World wheat supplies and disappearance

The world wheat supply situation, concisely presented in table 1, shows
the estimated supply for 1937-38 and the estimated supply and apparent dis-
appearance for the past 3 years. Total supplies for 1937-38 are now estimated
to be 61 million bushels larger than in 1936-37. Estimated stocks declined 209
million bushels, but this was more than offset by an increase of 270 million
bushels in estimated production. If Russia should export 30 million bushels
during the current year beginning July 1937, compared with exports of 4 million
bushels last year, total estimated supplies would be about 87 million bushels
larger than last year. If the disappearance in 19"7-38 is about the same as
the average disappearance of the past 3 years, however, world stocks next
summer on this basis will still be 50 million bushels or more below the average
which prevailed prior to the accumulation of stocks in 1929.

World wheat stocks

World old-crop wheat stocks, excluding those of Asia and Soviet Russia,
on about July 1, 1937, are estimated at 518 million bushels, which represent
decreases of 209 million bushels from 1936, 397 million bushels from 1935 and
637 million bushels from 1934. These are perhaps 120 million bushels smaller
than the average prior to 1929 when stocks started to accumulate. Estimated
stocks by countries are shown in tables 2 and 3.


- 3 -






S- 11


Table 1.- Estimated world old-crop wheat stocks excluding Asia
and Soviet Russia on about July 1, world production excluding
China and Soviet Russia, net exmozts from Soviet Russia,
and world disappearance, 19; Z-3. to 1"j57-38


Item :1934-;-5 : 1975-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38

: Million Million .Million P11ion
bushels bushels bushels bushels

Stocks 1/, excluding Asia 2/ and
Soviet Russia 2/ ...............: 1,155 915 727 518
Production 3/, excluding China and
Soviet Russia .................: 3,521 3,574 3,538 3,808
Total above supply ...........: 4,676 4,489 4,265 4,326

Net exports from Soviet Russia ....: 2 29 4 4/ (30)
Total above ..................: 4,673 4,518 4,:) 9 4,356

Less year-end stocks .............. 915 727 518
Apparent world disappearance..: 3,763 3,791 3,751

1/ See tables 2 and 3 for stocks by countries.
2/ Year-end stocks in India, Japan and Egypt do not change materially from year
to year and have probably averaged about 40 million bushes in recent years. No
figures are available for China.
3/ See table 4 for production by countries.
4/ Nominal figure based on 1933 and 1935, when net exports amounted to 34 and
29 million bushels, not a forecast; could be more or less largely depending on
government policy.


Stocks in European countries 1/

Carry-over stocks of wheat in Europe 2/ on August 1, 1937, were at the
lowest level in many years. In fact practically no country can be said to
have burdensome stocks at present. The low level of stocks in a grrat many
countries is even viewed with concern. The carry-over of old crop stocks into
the new season is now estimated at about 155 million bushels for the countries
outside of the Danube Basin and Soviet Russia. This is less than half the carry-
over supplies in 1934, and about 69 million bushels less than in 1936. The esti-
mate for Europe with-the Danube is about 190 million bushels, which represents a
decline of 67 million bushels from 19_36, 118 million bushels from 1935, and 167
million bushels from 1934. Estimates for the various countries are shown in
table 3, which also contains estimates of "normal" carry-ovcr.


1/ Reported by the European offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
2/ Stocks of old wheat before the new crop moved to market; August 1 arbitrarily
chosen to represent the nmid-point.between the beginning of the European harvest
in June and the end in September.


- 4 -






WS-ll


Table 2.- Estimated world old-crop wheat stocks, excluding Asia
and Soviet Russia on about July 1, 1974, to 1937


Countries : 1934 : 1935 : 1936 : 1937

: Million Mi llion Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

United States 1/ ...................: 274 348 142 103
Canada 2/ .......................... : 222 225 155 70
Argentina 3/.................. 143 105 72 59
Australia / ........................ 101 67 53 48
Danube Basin 5/ ....... ............: 33 22 33 35
North Africa 5 ...................15 24 11 5
Afloat .............................: 44 38 38 44
Total of above ...............: "832 629 504 364
Europe, excluding Danube and Soviet :
Russia .5/ ............. ...........: 323 .86 223 154
Total stocks excluding Asia and:
Soviet Russia ...............: 1,155 915 727 518

1I United States stocks of old wheat on farms and in country mills and eleva-
tors, total commercial stocks, and total stocks in merchant mills and elevators.
Commercial stocks and stocks in merchant mills and elevators in certain years
include some new wheat. Probably 4 and 7 million bushels of such wheat were in-
cluded in commercial stocks in 1936 and 1937, respectively, and 5 million bushels
in merchant mill stocks in 1937.
2/ Carry-over July .31, plus net exports and retention of flour for ,July including
Canadian wheat in United States.
3/ Carry-over on December 31, plus exports and domestic consumption, July 1-
December 31.
4/ Carry-over on Decermber 1, .plus net exports and domestic consumption July 1-
November 30.
5/ Estimated by the European ,offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
See table 3 for estimates by countries, also note 2 on page 4.


Though the present level of stocks is still statistically larger than
the estimated normal year-end carry-over for Europe, for all practical purposes
it appears that no'further significant decline may be expected. On the con-
trary, after another season it is not unlikely that further gains may be recorded
as compared with the present totals unless short world crops or other unusual
factors prevent the expected increase.

The prospective carry-over in 1938, is not expected to show much change
as compared with that of the present season. Europeran crops were not large
enough this year except in the Baltic States, possibly in Nationalist Spain, and
to a certain extent in the'Danube region (if exports do not develop favorably)
to permit of any significant carry-over. Even if there were some gain, the
present prospects are for a further decline in French and Czechoslovakian stocks
that would fully offset such an increase. Likewise the prevailing world wheat
price level is too high to encourage any significant stock accumulations unless


- .5 -





WS-11


a very serious world political situation should develop and all available sup-
plies should be purchased. In the present forecasts for carry-over into the
1938-39 crop, a further reduction in the French stocks to a quantity below
normal is assumed, as the Government police: in. that country appears to be one
of postponing imports as long as possible. Should any large imports be made
into France or into Italy next spring, howjevr, the European total would
probably show some increase.


Table 3.- Estimated carry-over of old crop wheat about


in European countries,


1934 to 1937 and.estimated


August 1
normal


C"Normal" 1937
Country 2/ 1934. :. 1935 : 1936 3/

: Million .11 ion Million i. llion Mi llion
:-bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

Austria ...........................: 1.8 2.4. 2.0 1.7 2.2
Belgium ....................... : 4,0 3.7 .2.9 3.1 3.7
Czechoslovakia .................: 4.8 12.8 12.9 25.7 14.7
Denmark ....................... : .1.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.3
Estonia ........................ : 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Finland ....................... : 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9
France ........................ : 22.0 117,5 91.9 49.6 27.6
Germany ........................: 12.9 55.1 49.6 25.7 18.4
Greece ........................ : 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.7 4,5
Irish Free State .............. : 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5
Italy ........................: 20.6 44.1 16.5 22.1 16.5
Latvia .............. ....... : 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.6
Lithuania ..................... : 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.0 0..
Ietherlands .............. ...... : 2.9 3.3 2.6 2.9 .3.1
;Iorway .. ..................... : 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.0
Poland ........................ : 5.1 9.2 8.8 5.5 6.4
Portugal .................... ..: 1.5 3.3 9.2 7.3 1.5
Spain ......................... : 10.5 18.4 40.4 33.1 11.0
Sweden ......................... : 1.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.8
Switzerland ................... 2.9 6.4 6.8 6.2 5.5
United Kingdom ................: 29.4 33.1 25.7 25.7 29.4
Europe, excluding Danube :
and Soviet Russia ......: 129.3 323.3 285.7 223.3 154.5

Danube Basin ................... : 27.6 33.1 22.0 33.1 34.9
Total Europe, excluding
Soviet Russia ..........: 156.9 356.4 307.7 256.4 189.4

1/ Refers to stocks of old wheat before the new crop moved to market; August 1
arbitrarily chosen to represent the mid-point between the beginning of the
European harvest in June and the end in September. Estimates by European offices
of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
2/ In general, this approximates one month's average requirements for human con-
sumption. These figures are revised from time to time to take account of chang-
ing consumnrtion.
3/ Preliminary.


- 6 -






- 7 -


World wheat crop prospects

The 1937-38 world wheat crop, exclusive: of the Union of Socialist
Soviet Republics and China, is now estimated at 3,808 million bushels, an
increase of 8 percent over the production in 1936-37, and a 4 percent
increase over the average production for the past 5 years. Upward revisions
in the estimates for countries other than the United States have increased
the total for the current season 37 million bushels over the total indicated
in August. Estimates by. countries are shown in:table 4.

The estimated production in the United States is now placed at 886
million bushels compared with the August estimate of 890 million bushels
and with the 1936 crop of 626 million bushels. The first official estimate
of the Canadian crop is 188 million bushels, compared with the production of
229 million bushels last year and the 1935 crop of 282 million bushels. The
1937 crop is the lowest since 1914, when a crop of 161 million bushels was
harvested from an acreage only four-tenths the size-of the 1937 .-.crca;ge
The drought damage in 1937 has been unparalleled in the previous crop history
of the Prairie Provinces and the yield per acre is at a new low level. The-
grade and the quality of the crop, however, are indicated to be very high,
although slightly below the record of 1936.

According to present estimates, the 1937 European wheat crop is well
above the small 1936 crop, but well below that of 1935 and slightly below
avcrAge. The current estimate has been revised upward about 8 million
bushels during the past month, and is now placed at 1,537 million .bushels.
This compares with the production of 1,484 million bushels in 1936. -In the
individual countries, significant decreases from last monthIs estimates were
noted for France and Czechoslovakia. These decreases, however, were more
th,.n cor.pensated for by increases reported for Germr-ny, Spain, and other
countries. The increase over the 1936 crop is accounted for largely by
marked increases in production in Italy and in Spain. The quality of the
1937 European crop is generally reported better than a year ago. The grain
is heavier than in 1936 and the moisture content less, The quality of the
crop in Italy is excepted in that it is reported to be-below average.
Reports indicate very heavy and good quality grain available for export from
all the Danubian countries.

The estimate of wheat production in North Africa remains virtually
unchanged from that reported last month. The quality of the grain, especially
in Tunisia, is reported to be above average.

In Argentina there was a continued deficiency of rainfall during August
and the first half of September. Rains during August were'well distributed
but were altogether insufficient for the needs of the growing crop and there
was a resultant poor germination of seed. Heavy rains were received over
much of the wheat area on September 18 and 19. The area sown to wheat is
estimated to be 17,594,000 acres. Assuming average growing conditions for the
rest of the season, the Buenos Aires office of the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics tentatively estimates a production of 205 million bushels. This
represents a decrease of 5 million bushels from the 210 million bushels
estimated last month on the basis of 17.5 million acres and past weather and
yield relationships.


WS-11





- 8-


Table 4.-Production of wheat in specified countries, 1934-35
to 1937-38


Country


ft
*

3
*
*


NORTHERN HEMISPHERE :
North America:
United States ............:
Canada .................. .
Mexico .*...... ...........:
Total (3) .............. :
Europe:
,England and Wales .........
Scotland *................ :
Northern Ireland .......:
Irish Free State .........:
Norway *** ..... ............:
Sweden .................. :
Denmrark ....... ...........
Netherlands ..............:
Belginum ..................:
France ...................:
Spain .................... :
Luxemburg ................:
Portugal ...................
Italy ..... .......... ..
Switzerland ..............:
Germany .................. ..
Austria ................... :
Czechoslovakia............
Greece ................ .....
Poland ..... *... ......... :
Lithuania ..............:
Latvia ...... .... ........
Estonia .................. :
Finland ..................
Malta ... ... ... ...........:
Albania ..................:
otal (26) .............:
Bulgaria .................:
Hungary ..................
Rumania ...................
Yugoslavia .............:
Total (4) ..............:


1934-35
1,000
bushels


526,393
275,849
10,950
813,192


65,259
4,144
363
3,803
1,204
27,806
12,847
18,042
16,757
338,513
186,834
1,171
24,690
233,064
5, 519
166 547
13,306
50,014
25,679
76,441
10,476
8,051
3,107
3,280
310
1,579
1,298,806
39,595
64,824
76,553
68,328
249,300


1935-36 .
1, 000C


bushels


626,344
281,935
10,712
918,991


60,592
4,480
362
6,686
1,767
23,610
14,672
16,653
16,101
284,950
157,986
1,022
22,092
282,760
5,989
171,488
15,509
62,095
27,180
73,864
10,093
6,520
2,267
4,233
179
1, 556
1,274,726
47,925
84,224
96,439
73,101
301,689


1936-37
1,000
bushels


626,461
229,218
13,606
869,285


51,445
3,547
273
7,839
2,094
21,525
11,390
15,575
16,153
255,932
121,490
1,070
8,651
224,999
4,470
4/162,660
13,514
55,583
21,338
78,357
7,949
5,272
2,433
5,442
236
1,129
1,100,366
59,304
87,789
128,717
107,421
383,231


1937-38
1,000
bushels


885,950
188,191
12,949
1,087,090


51,707
4,107
243
1/ 7,200
2/ 2,200
26,492
2/ 11,900
12,676
3 14,700
3/246,200
.3/147,000
1,123
14,540
294,305
6,162
4/157,886
5/ 13,375
49, 897
6/ 27,557
S65,771
2/ 8,500
6,393
2,903
6,030
331
(i,ioo)
1,180,298
64,233
70, 111
135,983
86,300
356.627


356.627


Total Europe (30) ...... :


1.548. 106


1. 576. 415


1. 483 59 1.56 2


Continued-


1.483.597


1.536.925


m


WS-11





- 9 -


Table 4.-Production of wheat in specified countries, 1934-35
to 1937-38 cont'd


Country : 1934-35 : 1935-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38
C C.


: 1,000
: bushels


1,000
bushels


1,000
bushels


1,000
bushels


ITORTERII HEMISPHERE COrTD:
Africa:
Algeria ...... ......
:Morocco *.. .............:
Tunisia ... ............
E .ypt .. ...............
Total (4) .............
Asia:
Palestine ............... :
Syria and Lebanon .......:
India .................. .:
Japan ... ........... ...:
Chosen ................:
Turkey ..................:
Total (6) ............. :
Total 43 countries ....:
Estimated Northern Hemi-
sphere total, exclud- :
ing Soviet Russia and :
China ............... :
SOUT_:ERN HEMISPHERE :
Argentina ..................:
Australia ................:
'nion of South Africa .....:
Estimated world total, :
excluding Soviet Russia :
and China ........... ....:


43,528
39,586
13,779
37,277
134.170'


3,044
16,279
349,813
47,660
9,268
99,712
525,776
3,021.244


33,532
20,036
16,902
43,222
113,692


3,834
18,520
363,216
48,718
9,747
92,640
536,675
3,145,773


29,774
12,234
8,083
45,700
95,791


2,795
15,998
351,680
45,192
8,078
138, 486
562,229
3,010,902


34,362
18,000
18,372
45,378
116,112


(2,800)
(16,000)
366,165
49,605
11,041
7/139,600
585,211
3,325,338


3,074,000 3,202,000 3,067,000 3,381,000

240,669 141,462 247,834 8/ 205,000
133,393 144,217 150,170 (155,000)
16,936 20,195 16,195 (15,000)


3,521,000


3,574,000


3,538,000


3,808,000


Compiled from official data except as otherwise noted. Revised from last
month.
1/ Estimate of the London office of the Bureau,
./ Estimate of the Berlin office of the Bureau.
3/ Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau.
4/! Includes the Saar.
5 fWinter wheat only,
6/ Trade .estimate. The official estimate of 37,242,000 bushels is considered
by the Belgrade office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics to be too
high.
7 Estimate of the Belgrade office of the Bureau.
:/ Based on weather conditions to date.


WS-11





- 10 -


Over large areas in Australia, weather was favorable during the past
month and crop conditions improved. The crop conditions are considered.
satisfactory over much of the country, but further rainfall is needed.
Based on weather to date and reported acreage, a production of about 155
million bushels is indicated which represents an increase of 15 million
bushels over the estimate issued a month ago.

Present official comments and reports for Soviet Russia point to an
unprecedented crop of all grains estimated in the aggregate at about 127
million short tons, or 28 percent above the officially reported 1933-35
average. There is good reason to* think, however, that this figure 'is over-
optimistic even as an. estimate of the so-called "biological yields". The
reduction of the official estimate by 10 percent would probably not be un-
reasonable. A further reduction which may well reach 15 to 20 percent or
more may be necessary in order to obtain the figure of the final "barn" crop-
(that is, the crop actually available for ultimate consumption), because of
the heavy harvesting losses experienced during the current season*

World import prospects. '"

On the basis of present crop estimates, carry-over stocks and other
information, it would appear that net imports -of wheat by European importing
countries (table 5) will amount to around 400 million bushels and imports by
nonEuropean countries about 85. million bushels, making a'total of 485 million
bushels for the year beginning July 1, 1937, compared with about 565 million
bushels estimated to have been taken by the same countries in 1936-37. This
is a decrease of about 80 million bushels. Imports by nonEuropean countries
are expected to be reduced from those of last year by about 40 million.
bushels, largely because the United States, a net importer in 1936-37,'is
on an export basis this year.

The 395 million bushels which now appears likely to be imported by
Europe 3/,is also about 40 million bushels less than a year ago, but about
55 million bushels more than 2 and 3 years ago and slightly larger than in
1933-34. Because of a smaller quantity available for export from the Danube
Basin countries (table 8), however, European imports from overseas countries
and Soviet Russia may not vary much below those of last year.

The indicated decline in European imports in 1937-38 (table 5)
compared with last year is almost entirely-the result of a prospective sharp
decrease in imports by Italy. During the past year, Italy's estimated
importations of around 57 million bushels of wheat ranked her as the second
most important European market. Prospects for a much larger crop, however,
make it possible, statistically at least, for Italy to get along with very
small imports this year. .Some decline is also expected this season in the
takings by Greece on account of the reported very good crop. On the other
hand, a few increases compared with last year are in prospect. The largest
increase in imports will likely be made by France, although with the much
better crop in the North African countries foreign wheat takings by that
country may not be significantly increased. A small gain also seems probable
in the Netherlands where a very much reduced crop has been harvested this
year.

3/ Reports for Europe from the European offices of the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics.








Table 5.- Net imports of wheat, including flour 1/, into European
countries excluding Danube and Soviet Russia, year
beginning July 1, 1933-34 to 1936-37, and fore-
cast for 1937-38

19Q7-38
Country 1933-34 : 1934-35" 1935-36"1936-37 : 1937-8
: : : : : forecast 1/
: Million Million MHillion Million Million
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

Austria ............... 11 10 7 10 10
Bel ium ................ : 43 40 39 40 40
Denmark ................ 12 19 9 7 7
Finland ................ : 4 4 4 4 3
France .............. : 18 2/-17. 7 9 26
Germany ................ : / -4 11 :3 23 28
3reece ................. : 12 13 15 21 13
Irish Free State ....... : 19 18 15 14 14
Italy ........... ..... : 8 10 7 57 6
Latvia ................. 0 4/ 2/-2 1 0
Netherlands ............. : 24 19 21 21 24
Nor -:a" ................ : 9 9 8 9 8
Portiu al ............... 1 1 2/-3 3/ 0
Spain .................. :4/ 4/ 3/ 6 1
Switzerland ............ 18 18 17 19 17
United Kingdom ......... : 216 202 205 199 202

Total, net imports : 5/ 393 6/ 358 6/350 440 399

IJ Forecast by European offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
2/ t exports.
3/ Less than 500,000 bushels
4/ Not ex-orts of less than 500,000 bushels.
5/ Includes 2 million bushels net imports by Sweden.
6/ Includes 1 million ,bushels net imports by Czechoslovakia.

The forecast of imports by Germany in 1937-38 are only moderately
larger than last year. This may be considered a conservative estimate of what
3crrnany needs and would like to irnTort. As trade is now entirely a matter
of -overnr,?ent policy, however, actual imports may be well below, or, on the
other hand, even somewhat above the recorded figure. If rye were to be
used solely as a bread grain, GGermny would be virtually self-sufficient in
bread grains even in a poor crop year like the present. In view of the short
European rye crop, however, and the very limited import possibilities for
this grain, it seems quite reasonable to suppose that Germany m ay hold part
of the rye supplies (especially as that country is desirous of replenishing
depleted stocks), and ir.,port a fair sized quantity of wheat again if it can
be satisfactorily arranged; if not, rye can be mixed with wheat to a larger
extent than heretofore. In the case of Spain v'hich country imported certain
quantities in the last season, a forecast is likewise difficult, but it now
seems likely that imports into the deficit Valencia government region will be
mostly offset by some exports from Franco's what surplus districts; if not,
the import requirements will be larrcr than estimated as will also the carry-
over into next year.


-11-


WS-11





WS- 11


MThcat requirements acnd disannor-_r.nce in many countries this year will
be reduced to a certain extent by various e2onom!,y measures. The hi h level of
world prices and the need to conserve foreign r:.xch-nec is tcndia,- to raisc the
extraction ratio wherever possible, and also tro make for some consideration of
adnixtures with bread grain flour or of the 'ubstitution of other .':rains ard
foods for wheat. With regard to aGmnixtu~res, Germany is le-ding the wa,,/ by
requiring cert,.in quantities of corn flour to be uixeoc. with vwhoat flour and..
probably later will require potato flour to be mix-i with ryc flour. Portugal
is encouraging substitution for 'n(.at when possible and in Italy is contcm-olating
the incorporation of 10 pncrcnt corn flour .with -;host flour.

Cons'zum' tion pearss to have declined considt-erably in Italy and. FrenceC
during the part 2 or 3 years, also in Czechoslovakia,' Austria, and Denmark,
and to some extent even in the United Kingd-rm. For Gireece, Finland, Norway,
Sweden, Germany, and also the Baltic States, there, hs'"been a noticeable uip'ard
trend in vhe-.t disappearance in recent years. In 'the northern countries this
appears to be largely the result of a shift from rye to v:heat, while in Greece
it appears to be largely the result of increasing 'ou'ulatio-. needs and in
Germany of a combinr.tion of irncreasin- population,' industrial r'ecov'ery, and
during the past 2 .O.nrs, army food purposes. The increasi.i.g .;hcat disappearance
in Germany has resulted in considerable concern in view of the reduced crops,
small carry-over stocks and import difficulties, so that now there appears to
be a definite policy not only to check the increase but even to roverso this -
trend.

The indispensibility of certain, and often cohridcr.-ble, quantities of
high grade foreign '.:e-nt for mixing purposes is no longer considered axiomatic.
The factors, availability of supplies by special trPde a reements, and price
when purchased again foreign exchange, are much more important than quality
or cons-umer desires, except on certain relatively free ;mnrkets, like the
United Kin,.ldon and a few others which do not have some exchange control. Con-
siderable progress also seems to have been made in recent years by European
millers in using domestic wheats effectively.

Italy and northern Africa \7 ich constitutes the imnorta.nt durum production
region of the world an,? together with France the important consJil-.l: area,
will have enough dur-m i ,'heat for all requirements this ;enr, and ;will crob-bly
take practicallyy no supplies from North or South America or tne eastern
Mediterranean. They will form a comn-letely self-contained %.-iit unless Italy
should have some net exports of durum in the form of products which h may also
include some hard bread wheat from forth America), or unless lMorocco should
be obliged to take some imports, other than minor qu'-ntitios of durun from.
Alreria and Tunisia. Estimated net i-mports or net exports of durum -./heat for
1937-38 with comparisons are shown in tnble 6.


-12-





WS-11


Table 6.- Estimated net imports or net e-:orts (-) of
for 1937-38 ,'!ith comparisons I/


durum wheat,


Aver r e 37 17-
Country : 1931-32 to 1935-36 1c-37 f 1recct
193 35-36 in. .ry forecast
: million Hillion Million 'Million
bushels bushels bushels b__..cls

Fr-iance ....... : 11.9 10.3 8.8 8.8
Ita-ly ........ : 2.8 1.0 2/ -0.3 2, -1.8
LIorocco ...... :/ 2/ -0.7 1.8 1.8
Algeria ...... : 6.8 2/ -8.4 3/ J -6.2
Tunisia ...... 2J -2.9 2 -4.5 3/ 2 -3.7


Estimated by Paris office of
ITet exports.
Not available.


the Bureau of A:ricultural Elonomics.


.70rld export prospects

Table 7 shows what seems to be a reasonable expectancy of the quantities
of wheat which h may be furnished by the various ship-ers, assuming net exports
of 485 million bushels. These estimates are based on present crop estimates
and most probable carry-over stocks. As crop estimates are revised or demand
nros-pects change, the estimates will need to be adjusted accordingly. The
figures for the Southern FHe-iisphere countries are especially subject to change
before the time of harvest in Icvenber through January, changes in which would
also affect the fi-ures for the other countries. Present prospective supplies
in the United States indicate a surplus available for export considerably
larger t'-an 95 million bushels, but it is probable that they vyill be confined
largely to hard red winter and white wheat.


Table 7.- Estimated exports in 1937-38 by countries

Country I' t exports

: Million bushels

Ar:-rentina ........................... 100
United States ....................... 95
Austr-.lia ........................... 95
Canada ............................................65
Danubian countries .................. 65
Soviet Russia ........................ : .(30)
lrth French Africa ................. 20
Others, including India and
Turkey, Czechoslova:-ia, Poland and :
Sweden .......................... : 15


Total .............. 485


MERM


-13-





T7S-11 -14-

The quantity of '::hrt avnilPblc f-r ex-port in Eurone promises to be
considerably reduced this year comp-r:- wit'. 190-6-37. Not only is the Donube
Basin surnlus snallcr, but Polan-d and Czech'.l >va.;i'., vhi.ch exncrto-,d, 16 million
bushels in the -aart season, have little wb..-t for cyn-rt this ,-ear. A some-
what larger quiLn.tit.y than last vyc.r is -vpil-.ble f.:- North Africa, but this
will be lrr.ojt entirely absorbe'. by the French market, Amprcxirn-toly t.-e same
quantity :-ill probably be nvnilnble from Turkey and, as Inst year, will move
to Eur:. oe. T':.e bettor crops in the Baltic States and Sc.andinavia, especially
Sweien, should result in some surpluses and nerhaos in small e:-:orts.

Ta.le .. shows thM estimated net exports frau ERropean an.. 'Forth African
countries in .137-3 corp-re'. with those of 193e-37. The reduction of about
25 million bushels in export supplies largely offset- the indicated dccrecse
of about .4s nil]ion bushels in net import requirements of the othor European
countries this ye'-r comoarvd rith last year. Accordi.-l:,i, the r:nrket f.r over-
seas and Russian vrhe-t is not reduced as much as seems at first annarent.

If the Danubian countries insist -.os a considerable n.rt of the w;thent
exports bein- made air.st str.on currencies the q.untity may b.% loss than
the 65 million bushels sho,,'n in tables ? .ndl 8. I-' order to disease of this
quantity a stron- :n.nrket "or Danubian .-'.eat :..ust continue, or it .ill be
necessary to subsidize exrnorts or retnrn more to special .referential a reements
involving coe-.p-.-stion tra:-e.

Table E.- Estirrtecd net exports fror. Euroncan ?and North African countries,
19Z6-37 and 1937-38

Country : 1936-37 : 1937-38

:: millionn million n
bushels bushels

Danubian countries .............. : S8 65
Ozechoslovakia .................. : 10 1
Poland ......................... : 6 1
Sw-.eden .......................... : 1
ITorth Africa .................... : 11 20
Turkey .......................... : 5 5

TotAl ............. 120 93

i/ Less then 500,000 bushels.





- 15 -


Soviet grain exports, of course, are largely dependent upon Government
policy and must, therefore, remain to a considerable extent a matter of con-
jecture. It is not anticipated, however, that exports of grain in general
and wheat in particular will be heavy this season. As has been pointed out /,
the final crop available for utilization ("barn" crop ) should show a smaller
increase over the preceding years than is indicated by the preliminary
official estimate. Furthermore, there is no doubt that following last
year's poor crop, government stocks of grain have been considerably reduced
and efforts will be made to rebuild and probably to increase such stocks in
order to be prepared to meet any economic or political emergency. At the
same time the urban population is growing and the increased army tends to
increase the requirements for government grain supplies. An increase in
livestock numbers called for by government plans should likewise require
increasing quantities of grain. Moreover, there seems to be no urgent reason
for the Soviet Government, with its improved international financial position,
to press export sales this year, and the scarcity and dearness of tonnage
may also be a limiting factor. Wheat shipments from southern Soviet ports
during the peri.i July 1 September 17 were 4.5 million bushels this year
compared with 4. million bushels for the same period in 1935 and 3.2 million
bushels in 1933.

Foreign wheat prices

Liverpool and Winnipeg prices during the last part of August continued
the decline which started the last half of July. December futures at
Liverpool declined from an avorago of $1.29 for the week ended August 14 to
$1.25 for the week ended August 28, while Winnipeg prices declined from $1.25
to $1.19 during the same period. This decline was due largely to a slow
European demand and uncertainty regarding the likelihood of significant
exports from Soviet Russia.

During the first half of September, Liverpool Deceonber futures rose to
about mid-August levels, but Winnipeg prices, after rising,. declined relative
to those of Liverpool; thereby the Canadian price became relatively more
favorable for exporting. The December futures at both Liverpool and Winnipeg
for the week ended September '11 averaged 5 cents higher than for the week
ended August 28. Table 9 shows prices of futures at Liverpool, Winnipeg, and
Buenps Aires, together with prices at Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis by
weeks for the current season.


k/ Page 10.


WS-11





WS-11


- 16 -


Table 9.- Average closing prices of December ;he-,t futures,
specified markets and dates, 1936 .r:.,d 1937


: Winnipeg : Liverpool : Buenos :
Date : 1/ : 1/ : Aires : Chicago :Kfnsis City :Minnoapolis

1.......936:1 : 1936:1937 : 1936: 1937:1936:1937 :1936: 1937 : 1936:1937
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Ce-nts Cents


: 92.5 134.1

: 99.8 122.3


:104.2

: 99.6

: 99.9

: 95.8

: 95.3

99.2

:104.2

: 83.8


123.3

125.4

122.2

119.5

120.3

124.9

138.9

119.5


98.9 140.3 -

109.7 127.5


1.13.4

109.7

109.8

106.9

108.0

113.1

113.4

90.0


131.1 --- ---

129'.0 --- --
2/ 2/
126.8 106.7 116.9

125.0 103.4 115.8
/ 2/
125.4 99.5 115.,2
2/ .2/
130.0 99.0 119.2

143.4

125.0 --


--- i'o5,9 124.6 102.7 120,3

--- 111.3 111.0 112.0 104.8


112.7 114.6

110.4 113.4

112.7 110.2

109.7 107.5

108.7 106.8

111.2 o10.6

112.7 128.0

99.3 106.8


112.9

111.5

113.9

109.9

108.5,

110.6

113.9

94.3


108.6

107.3

103.8

101.2

101.2

102.8

123.8

101.2


117.5 134.1

124.5 119.2


126.8

124.0

125.1

122.1

121.2

123.2

126.8

108.5


122.7

122.4

117.4

116.o

114.7

117.1

135.4

114.7


Conversions at noon buying rate of exchange.
November futures.
July 1 to date.


Month

July

Aug.

Week
ended-

Aug. 7

14

21

28

Sept.4

11

High 3/

Low 3/






WS-11


- 17 -


THE. DOMESTIC HEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- The carryover of wheat in the United States
for the 5-year period (1924-28) aver-ged about 115 million
bushels. Stocks which began to accumulate in 1929 reached
the record peak of 373 million bushels in 1933. Four small
wheat crops since that time, however, reduced stocks to 103
million bushels by July 1, 1937.

Domestic wheat prices since the spring of 1933-34 to
1936-37 wore unusually high relative to world market
prices as a result of four small domestic crops caused
largely by abnormally low yields per acro. During 1936-37
both world and domestic prices advanced sharply as a re-
sult of increased demand and the smallest supplies in recent
years.

Domestic supply and disposition prospects

A total wheat crop of 886 million bushels in the United States was
indicated by the September 1 crop report. This is only 4 million bushels
less than indicated by the August report. (See table 10.) The prospective
utilization has been increased since the August issue largely to allow for
additional wheat for feeding. Probable exports have been reduced, and
probable carry-over increased.

Table 10 indicates that supplies of hard red spring and durum wheats
are ample to take care of prospective requirements, and that there will be
surplus supplies of hard and soft red winter and white wheats over domestic
requirements. A carry-over of around 200 million bushels, while larger than
that .of the past 3 years, falls far short of the 1930-34 average of 326
million bushels.

The figures in table 10 are in terms of 60-pound wheat and, therefore,
take into consideration that hard red spring wheat is running light in test
weight. j/ Some substitution of heavy hard red winter wheat for hard red
spring wheat may be expected. The actual utilization by classes will depend,
of course, on a number of factors, two of which are the relative prices of
the different classes of wheat and the prices of wheat relative to feed
grain prices and supplies in the various sections of the country, especially
during the period prior to the new corn harvest.

STablo 14 chows quLality ,,f the 1937 what crop,based. on inspection at
roprosonta.tiv- markets.





- 18 -


Table 10.- Estimated prospective wheat supplies and distribution
by classes for 1937-38, on basis cf prospects,
September 1937

:Hard :Soft :Hard :
Item : Red : Red : Red : Durum : W'hite : Total
: ,'inter: Winter: Spring:
:Million Million Million Million Million Million
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July 1, 1937 stocks ........ :/ 45 15 18 3 10 91
Production .................; _375 258 115 28 110 886
Total .................: 420 273 133 31 120 977
Prospective utilization ....: 285 206 108 26 55 680
Difference ...........: 135 67 25 5 65 297
Forecasted exports 2/........: 70 0 0 0 25 95
Prospective carryover,
July 1938 ................: 65 67 25 5 40 202

i/ An estimated 12 million bushels of' now hard red winter wheat in July 1
stocks not included.
2/ Includes flour in tern.s of wheat.


Domestic'whoat prices

Wheat prices in domestic futures markets during the last half of August,
influenced by the same factors as prices in the Liverpool market 6/,continued
the decline which started in July. The December future at Chicago, however,
averaged 6 cents lower for the week ended August 28 than for the week ended
August 14, while the Liverpool price averaged only 4 cents lower.

During the first half of September Liverporl advanced while the weekly
average for Chicago changed little, thereby widening the spread between the
two markets. The December future at Liverpool averaged 5 cents higher for the
week ended September 11 than for that ended August 28, while Chicago averaged
only 1 cent higher* For the week ended September 11 the Decumber Chicago
future averaged 21 cents below Liverpo-1l. More recently the spread has
widened, at least temporarily, another 5 cents or mere. Based on past export
and spread relationships this spread is wide on-ugh to result in substantial
experts, even though that present freight rates are high. Ocean freight
space, however, has been scarce, and importing countries have refrained from
purchasing. while awaiting a more definite ,appraisal of Southern Hemisphere
crops and Russian shipments. Spreads of cash prices as well as futures rf
Winnipeg and Liverp-ol over domestic markets are shown in table 11.

Cash prices in domestic markets with the exception of durum wheat,
which declined during the first half of Septeimber, changed much the sneo as
futures prices at Chicago. Average weekly prices in the various domestic
markets are shown in table 13.
6/ Sje page 15 for discussion and tables 9 & 12 covering foreign
wheat prices.


W7S-11




WS-11


Deccmbor futures per bushel
Am..nt Chic:-.o : Amount Kpnsas City,


Month and year


aver Ied
above


:Winnipeg


averra.d
: above


.LiverTool. Winnipe.:Liver-ooel
: : -


: Csh -' c-.t -j.:r tb,.fshcl
:Amount -o.2 Hd. Winter
(Kansas City)averaged
: above
: To. 3 IMani-: Prrcels
to'ba :(Livernool)
* ('Tinni e '- '.


July
1934 ........
1935 ........ .
1936 ........ :
1937 ........
Aug.
1934 .......
1935 ......... :
1936 ........
1937 ........
7eek ended
Sept. 11
1934 ........
1935 ....... :
1936 .......
19 ,7 ....... :


Cents


12

13
-10

16

12
-11


19
4
12
-16


Cents Cents


15
13
7
-16

13
12
2
-16


17
6
-2
-21


6

10
-14

12

12
-18


16
8
11
-22


I/ Liverpool parcels not available.

Table 12.- Averag-'e price per bushel of whent,sspecified markets and dates, 1937

SKansas:innoaolsWinni- :Buenos :Liver- : Great : Berlin
Date : Cit : : pe : Aires : pool :Britain:
1 2/ : 3 / 4/ : 5 : 6____
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month
July ......... : 122.5 151.2 138.9 126.0 143.7 129.8 223.0
Au............ : 111.8 132.8 121.9 124.1 126.9 125.4 213.9
-leek ended
Au-'. 7 ....... : 113.2 139.0 123.6 125.5 130.0 132.4 208.0
14 ....... : 111.8 137.4 126.0 123.1 128.2 130.2 216.0
21 ....... : 108.9 129.8 121.8 123.2 125.9 122.5 215.5
28 ....... : 107.8 130.3 118.3 124.3 124.7 116.7 216.0
Sept. 4 ...... : 107.9 130.2 117.7 125.0 125.3 114.1
11 ...... : 112.2 138.1 121.0 1C8.0 129.6

Prices are avera. es of :daily prices for the wck ending Saturday cxcc-ot as
follows: Berlin prices are Vednesc'a; quotations. Prices at foreign ,:.-rkeCts
are converted to United States money at the current rates of cxchangc.
Ij ,1o. 2 Herd Winter. 2/ No. 1 Dar.: lEcrthern Spring. 3/ No. 3 :tanitoba
Northern. 4j/ ear futures. 5/ Home-grown wheat in England and Wales.
/ Ccr.trtl German wheat, wholesale trad.e price free Central German Station.


-19-

T-.able 11.- S-urc.s .*ct'een domestic 'oe't prices n.:... prices at
7inniToe- and Liverpool, specified periods, 1934-37


Cents


15
26
23
-16


Certs


17
19
11
-21


Cents


9
12
4
-20

9
13
2
-23


14
9
-2
-27


23


-10


28
30
26
-9


-23


1I
1
1/





WS-11 -20-

Table 13.- 7eihto'.l avern:e cash -"rice of wheat, specified markets en'.
dates, 1f36 2
:All classes: ITo. 2 : No. 1 :No.2 '".:rd : No. 2 : ocstern
Date :--d ra'dls :Hard Winteor:k.I .Srri. :.A.-rr Dirur;:Red Winter : Thite
si:: narkcts:Kansas City:Minr'a- '1s:'in: emolis:St. Louis :Seattle 1
*19 -5::1937 :1936 :1937 :19"6. :1?9 :19'.G :1937 :19'6 :1937 :192.6:1937
:Cer.t Centss:Cents:Cents:Cents:Cents:Cents:Ce.ts:Cents:Cents:Cents:CcntsCont
Month -
July .....:109.7:11 .7: 111.0:12.5: 1 5:151.2:142.7:13. 0:105. 6:22. 0:9.8:110.
Au -ust ...: 1J.C6: 107.5:12 .0:111. :146.6:122. 3:149.1:116.3:117.4:112.0: 7.2: 98.
Week end : : : : : : : : : : : :
Au. 7 ...:127.: 106.6 121.8:113.2 150.0:139.0:165.8:137.5:116.4:113.6:97.2:102.1
14 ... :12S.3:10.6:121.7:111.8:144.3:137.4:14U.2:123.5:117.8:111.2:C7.0:101.2
21 ... 1.7.3:10?7.2:125.5:108.9: 143. 7:1 J. 144.4:120.9:120.3:109.4: 9. 7: 97.4
*2 ..:121.1:109.7:120.5:107.8: 143. 4:130.3. 1-3.0:114.8 117.3: 10. 8:5.6: 94.2.
Sert. ... :119.0:08.:11I.6:107.9:139.6:130.2 --- :113.0:114.2:107.4: 3.4: 94."
11 ...:122.1:110.3:122.5:112.2:143.5:1.3 .1:140.1:112.8:117.?:111.1:94.2: 95.
H 1 : : 7 :
Hih 12.3123.0 12.3:150.0:155.8:14.1:120. 3:123.:99 7:116.
Lo-; .: 99. 1:106.6:100.3:107.8:124.5:129.S:12n.4:112.5: 96.5:103.8:31.8: 94.

/ eek:ly ver ;e :f *il.-. cash quot.t-'nen, b-nsis no. 1 sacked.

2/ July 1 to -ate.


Table 14.- E.crorts of w -heat and ''heat flour from the Unite.i States,
19.35 and 1937
(Inclides flo-ir rillc, in bond from frei -n wheat)
.V:eat : vhet I: 'paent
Period : flour : inldinf7 flour
193G : 1937 : 1935 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937
: 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,0-0 1,000 1,000
I shels bushel s barrels barrels bushels bushels
July ..............: 26 2,145 290 2.34 1,389 3, 35
Week ended -
Aug. 7 .....: 0 758 42 48 197 984
14 .....: 5 1,434 7 45 38 1,529
21 .....: 23 1,058 28 48 155 1,234
28 .....: 154 1,3L3 26 28 276 1,475 5
Sept. 4 .....: 111 403 35 44 275 610
11 .....: 0 269 40 71 1883 603


Compiled from reports of the


Denrtment of Commerce.





WS-11


: Hard red : Soft red : Thite : Hard red : Durum
:-rinter -rhrat :-inter -hea.t : wheat. : sTri:g -"hatt: -het____t
Grade
Sub- : Per-: Sub- :Per-: Sub- :Per-: Sub- :Per-: Sub- :Per-


: class :
:Dark
:hard.
:-inter.. .
:Hard.
:'7inter...
:Yellow
:h'rd
-:inter...



:.* .




*. .


1

2
3
4
5
Sample
Special
grade s:
Tough...
Smutty..
Smut
do cka ge
Garl i cky


cent: _'I.ass


:Red.
57 :winter...


0 :


:c-nt: class ':ccnt : c1as :cent: 1l:as :cent


:Hard
:white...
:Soft
:white..
:Thite
:club....
:Western
:-hite...

1 :.........

.7 :.........
3 :. .. .. .
.6 :..........
.6 :.........


O :........ 17 :.........
2 :......... 3 : .........


S......... 30


* .. .. .


:Dk. No.
66 spring...
:Northern.
23 :spring......
:Red
9 :spring...


2 :


54 :No.l Heavy 5
:No.l ..... 8
42 :.......'..... 9
4 : .......... 28
0 : .......... 19
0 : ......... 17
o : ......... 14


:Hd. amber
97 :durum....
:Amber
. 3 :durum....


:Durum....









.


7 :.........


Table 16.- Shi-ments of -heat, including floor .from.principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1936 and 1937


Argentina : Australia : Danube : North America
: 1936 : 1937 ; 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937.: 1936 : 1937
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bosh eIs ushels bushels bushels bu shels bushels bushelI


July ........

Week ended-
Aug. 7 ....
l4 ....
21 ....
28 ....
Sept.4 ....


: 5,416


588
1,060o
892
620
3~0


3,168 4,164 5,684 2,008 1,376 26,376 l0,o40


888
876
856
968
996


1,888
1,292
1,192
1,356


1,812
1,472
916
1,444
836


614)
712
1,080
1,808
1,336


472
4S4
960
1,520
712


6, 84?
5,648
6,008
5,320
5,104


2, 12
2,560
4,072
2,848
2,160


Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade Th-7s.


21 -

Table 15.- Quality of the 1937 -heat crop
(Based on inspected xeceip.ts at, representative markets,
July 1 to August 31)


100

0

0


Period


:. ..





- 22 -


Table 17.-Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal export-
ing countries, 1934-35 to 1937-38


: _Exports as given by official sources :
Country : Total : July 1 to date shown : Date
:1934-35:1935-36: 1936-37:1935-36: 1936-37: 1937-38:
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0C0 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels
a


United States ........: 21,532
Canada ............... :169,630
Argentina .............:187,000
Australia ..........108,007
Russia ............... : 4,286
Hungary ..............: 12,499
Yugoslavia ...........: 4,401
Rumania ..............: 3,432
Bulgaria ............: 375
British India ........: 2,318
Total ...........:513,480
SF*
:
:1935-36:
: 1,000
:bushels


15, 29
237,447
76,577
102,258
29,704
14,644
728
6,391
988
2.556]


21,584
213,028
162,085
95,970
4,479
27,428
17,302
35,540
7, 2'73
/13.087


1,231
34,329
22,274


1,389
50,817
8,527


3,385
17,954
7,365


July 31
Aug. 31
Aug. 31


487,222 597,776
Shipments as given by trade sources
Total : Week eeded (1937) :July 1-Sept.11
1936-37 :Aug.28 :Sept..4:Sept.11:1936-37:1937-38


1,000
bushels


North American 2/ ....:220,464 225,902
Canada,4 markets 3/ ..:246,199 194,531
United States .........: .7,219 10,049
Argentina ............: 78,312 164,678
Australia ......... ...:110,576 105,836
Russia ...............: 29,024 88
Danube & Bulgaria 4/ .: 8,312 65,544
British India ........ :5/2556 1/5/13,087
Total 6/ ...........:449,244 575,135
Total European ship- :
ments 2/ ........ :30,264 484,600
Total ex-European :
shipments 2/ ....... 131,76', 127,192


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


2,848
939
1,475
968
1,444
456
1,520
248


2,160
1,132
610
996
836
768
712
928


1,000
bushels

2,105
2,648.
603
893.
942
1,680
1,144
456


456 608.


1, 000 1,000
bushels bushels


60,928
54,711
1,696
10,720
11,812
0
11,136
608.


26,297-i
13,392
9,410:
8,6451
.13,1061
3,1761
6,7681
6,1041


95,204 64,096:1
7/ '7/
55,272 40,7368

26,240 13,368-


5,664

2,168


1 Total of 10 months.
2/ Broomhall's Corn Trade News.


Fort William, Port Arthur, Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and New Westminster.
Black Sea shipments only.
Official.
Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's,
but does not include items 2 and 3.
To August 28.


WS-11







WS-11


- 23 -


THE RYE SITUATION


BACKGROUND.- Rye production in the United States before
.. .... thoWar about equaled domestic utilization. During the
o.'ar, acreage was increased and large exports followed. In
2 1933, 1934, and 1936, reductionon was reduced by drought
conditions to less than the amount normally used in the
United States, and a considerable amount.of rye was
imported. A .large crop in.1935.greatly reduced but did not
eliminate imports. .On the.basis of.prospective utilization
and-carry over, around 15:million.bushels are.aivailable for
exports or for addition to, the. carry.-over;i-n.1937-38.

World ro production .

The 1937 rye crop in the 25 European, countries. for. which reports are
now available is inidica.ted to be about 806 million.bushels, or.40 million
bushels less than the small 1936 crop. This. production isthe lowest since
the -very snall harvest' of 1931. The reduced- crop is the result of unfavorable
weather during the growing season and considerable winter dam;.age, especially
in the two "nest important producing countries, Gort.:any and- Poland.

The 'first official estimate of the rye production in Germany places
the crop at' 266 nillioh' bushels, which: is- percent below the -1936 production
and 14 percent less than average production' for" t'h pa.st- 5 years. Production
in Poland is officially estimated at 219 rlli'in' bushols', or, 12 -percent less
than that of last year. The Czechoslovaki'an crop' i's est-iated at 57 million
bushels, which is about the same as the' crop pr'o'd'uce'd 1'ast year but is 17
, percent below the aver-.gc of the' past '5 years.' The quality of- the
Czechoslrvakian crop is reported to be g''o'd'.' There seerns to' be little
.question that the rye crop in Russia is considerablyy larger "th1ui that of
1936. The first official estimate for Cmnada' places the crop 'at 6.0 million
bushels c.-r.pared with the 1936 production of 4.3 in1i'llicn bushels.
The rye export situation
The E.uropean surplus of rye is very much reduced this year, particularly
as a result of the smaller crop in Poland and the Danube area.

Pola.nd, 'which is usually the most important rye exporterr,, has no real
surplus this year though it is possible that small quantities will be
exported at the expense nf domestic needs in order to relieve market
congestion during the heavy fall marketing period, and in order to help
so.eovihat in the present unfav-rable foreign trade outlook for 1937-38.
An exportable surplus from the Danube region of around 7 million bushels
is estir.Tted compared with exports during the past season of about 10 million
bushels. 3;.,all quantities nay be available fr-ri the Baltic States and from
Soviet Russia. 'lith reduced European supplies, unless Soviet Russia
unexpectedly enters the export market in volume, significant exports from
the United States are probable this year.






- 24 -


Table 181- Estimated rye production in specified countries,
1934-37 .-


Country : 19r4 : 1935 : 1936 : 1937


: 1,000
: bushels


United States ........ ... .... .
Canada .... ..................... :
Total (2) ... ...... ........ :
Austria ............ ............. :
Belgium ....................... :
Bulgaria ....................... :
Czechoslovakia ................. :
Denmark ........................ :
Estonia ......................... :
Finland ........................
France ........................ :
Gennany ........................ :
Greece .......... ............ :
Hungary ..................
Irish Free State ................ :
Italy ............. ............. :
Latvia ......................... :
Lithuania ...................... :
Luxemburg ..................... :
ITetherlands .................... :
Norway .......................... :
Poland ......................... :
Portugal .......................
Rumania ........................ :
Spain ............... .......... :
Sweden ......................... :
S%ritzerland .................... :
Yugoslavia ..................... :

Total (25) ................


17,070
4,706
21, 776
22,617
15,268
6,438
55,970
10,801
9,064
15,544
32,983
299,496
2,466
24,380
66
5,607
16,210
26,331
548
19,788
395
254,472
4,913
8,308
21,567
20,351
1,225
7,688


882,496


1,000
bushels

58,597
9,606
68,203
24,416
12,995
7,767
64,501
11,177
6,804
13,760
29,371
294,399
2,133
28,650
69
6,225
14,326
.25,221
452
18,311
483
260,498
4,635
12,724
19,245,
16,902
1,252
7,719

884,085


1,000
bushels


25,554
4,281
29 ,835
18,129
14,060
7,980
56,549
7,842
6,044
12,755
28,150
2/290,788
1,919
28,114
68
5,204
11,260
21,314
449
19,059
425
250,541
3,466
17,842
18,053
13,891
1,077
10,161


845,140


1,000 '
bushels


51,869
6,038
57,907
_/ 16,700
12,795
9,778
56,8965
9,645
8,031
14,944
29,526
2/266,481
2,986
25,348
79
5,752
16,180
22,833
488
18,186
433
219,279
4,642
17 393
19,684
17,125
1,213
3_/ 9,448


805,936


cultural Economics.


i/ Estimate of the Berlin Office of the Bureau of Agri
2/ Includes the Saar.
T/ Includes meslin.






- 25 -


The reduced rye crop affects both the wheat situation and the feed
situation adversely as far as Europe is concerned. In central Europe,
particularly, it tends to cause a tighter bread grain situation, and in all
countries whore rye is usually fed to any extent, the reduced supplies will
probably cause a shift to other feeds such as barley, corn, and root crops.
Some central European countries, notably Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia,
appear to be regarding rye more exclusively as a bread grain than formerly,
and if necessary nay favor it at the expense of wheat. This is believed
to be duo partly to the smaller crop this year but also largely as a measure
of insuring national sufficiency in bread grains. Fixed prices for rye in
both Germany and Czechoslovakia for the coming season have been raised more
in line with wheat, and thus from a price standpoint make rye unprofitable
f'r feeding.

Rye prices

Cash rye prices continued irregularly downward during July and August
influenced principally by increased offerings from the large 1937 crop.
The weekly average price of No. 2 Rye at Minneapolis declined from the spring
peak of $1.17 per bushel for the week ended April 10 to 74 cents for the
week ended August 28. In early September cash rye prices made some improve-
m-nt, largely as a result of smaller marketing and a good cash demand.
Demand from domestic millers continued active and the export demand has
i.iproved since the removal of the import duty on rye to Belgium. The aver-ge
price of No. 2 Rye at Minneapolis for the week ended September 11 was
78 cents per bushel.

The average price received by producers in the United States as of
August 15 was 70.6 cents per bushel compared with 81 cents for July and
75.1 cents for August last year. Although the August farm price this year
was lower than for any of the previous 12 months it was nearly double the
price of 2 years ago, and was the highest for that month since 1929, with the
exception of the two drought years 1934 and 1936.


WS-11




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