Wheat situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00025

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Wheat outlook & situation


This item is only available as the following downloads:


Full Text

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF -AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

WS-10 August 25, 1937

THE WHEAT SITUATION
Including Rye
-----------------------------------


This issue has been prepared with particular
reference to the outlook for the wheat and rye
crops to be seeded this fall. A separate report
on the Summer Outlook for Wheat will not be
issued this year.

Summary of wheat and rye outlook for 1938

If wheat growers respond to relatively high prices this year as they

have in the past, there is little probability that they.will reduce their acre-

age seeded for harvest in 1938 much below the 81 million acres seeded.for this

year's crop -- the largest acreage in the history of the country. An acreage

of this size with average yields wo uld produce a crop of 950 million bushels.

The production this year, as indicated on the basis of August 1 reports, was

890 million bushels. About 650 million bushels are used annually in the United

States and, with average yields, this quantity could be produced on about 55

million acres.

Large-scale exports of United States wheat are possible this year, as

the result of increased domestic production, small world supplies, and rela-

tively high prices in world markets. The export situation may not be so favor-

able in 1938. Unless world production in 1938 is again small or export demand

increases beyond present expectations, prices of wheat and income to United

States wheat growers from the 1938 crop may be expected to be materially lower

than during the current marketing season.




WS-10 .

With wheat prices high relative to rye prices and about average feed

grain supplies in prospect, growers will probably reduce their rye acreage

from the 3,960,000 acres harvested this year.- Rye production this year, esti-

mated at 52 million bushels, is considerably in excess of usual domestic dis-

appearance, which amounts to about 34 million bushels, and there may be a

tendency to return to about the average of 5-years, 1928-32, when 3,315,000

acres were harvested. Such.an acreage with average yields per acre would pro-

duce a crop of about 40 million bushels, which would be only slightly in excess

of usual domestic disappearance. Unless domestic rye yields per acre are

low, the world supply small, or demand increased beyond expectations, prices for

the 1938 rye crop may be lower than those for the 1937 crop.

Summary of outlook for wheat harvested in 1937

Prospective world wheat supplies for the year beginning July 1, 1937,

excluding Soviet Russia and China, are now expected to be about the same as

last year. During the past month world production estimates have been revised

upward by 50 million bushels and carry-over stocks upward by 10 million bushels.

World stocks of old wheat on about July 1, excluding Soviet Russia and China,

are now tentatively placed at about 525 million bushels which is about 235

million bushels less than last year. World wheat production, excluding Soviet

Russia and China, is now estimated at 3,771 million bushels, which is about 235

million bushels above the 1936 production. The crop in the Northern Hemisphere,

excluding Soviet Russia and China, is indicated to be about 3,354 million bushels

or 288 million bushels more than that of last year. On the basis of weather

conditions, a production of only about 350 million bushels is indicated for

Argentina and Australia, which is about 50 million bushels less than in 1936-37.

World trade in wheat and flour may be 50 to 100 million bushels less






WS-10 3 -

than in 1936-37, and United States exports of wheat, including flour in terms

of wheat, may amount to 100 to 125 million bushels. Exports will depend, how-

ever, upon final outturns in other surplus producing countries, availability

of foreign exchange, and restrictions in consumption in importing countries..

Exports will consist mostly of hard red winter wheat, but significant quanti-

ties of white wheat from the Pacific Northwest also will be exported.

Higher domestic wheat prices may be expected sometime within the next

few months as a result of prospective strengthening of world markets, unless

present prospects for a small world production are revised upward materially

or European buying does not pick up as mach as is no-r anticipated. However,

exports from Soviet Russia, which country has prospects of an increased crop

compared with last year may so affect European markets as to retard this pos-

sible advance. Temporarily, Liverpool prices may continue to decline until

European buying becomes more active, and domestic prices may decline even more

than those at Liverpool as a result of some widening of the spread between

domestic and Liverpool prices; this widening may be necessary to induce larger

exports from the United States.

'OUTLOOK FOR 1938 WHEAT-!/ CROP

BACKGROUND .2- The acreage needed to wheat for harvest
in.1937, estimated at 81 million acres, was the largest
in the history of the country. The acreage seeded for
harvest in 1919 was the largest on record up to that time.
For the 1919 to 1924 crops, seeded acreage declined from
77 million to 56 million acres. Then it rose to 71 mil-
lion acres in 1928 and during the 1924-32 period averaged
67 million acres. For the 1934 crop, seeded acreage was
brought down to 64 million acres.


1 Rye outlook statement on page 28.
2/ See also background statements on pages 5 and 12 .




WS-10


Wheat prices this year are relatively high and the United States crop is
likely to be the most valuable since 1927.. If growers respond as they have in
the past there is little probability that they will reduce their seedings for
the 1938 harvest much below the 81 million acres seeded for harvest in 1937.
In fact, there is the possibility of a larger total acreage as the result of
probable increases in certain areas. Further shifts from corn to wheat seem
likely in parts of the hard red winter wheat area, where dry weather has greatly
reduced corn yields. Increases in wheat acreage may also occur in parts of
the hard red spring wheat area, where seeding conditions were unfavorable this
year.

United States production this year, indicated on the basis of August 1
reports at 890 million bushels, is greatly in excess of the 625 to 650 million
bushels used annually in the United States for food, feed and seed (table 7),
which quantity with average yields could be produced on about 55 million acres.

The 11-bushel yield per seeded acre this year is below the 18-year
(1919 to 1936) average of 11.8 bushels (figures 1 and 2). Had abandonment not
been unusually heavy this year, over 1 billion bushels would have been produced.
.With about the same acreage as this year, a yield as low as 8.1 bushels the
record low yield of 1933 would produce fully enough wheat for usual domestic
needs. On the other hand, a yield as large as 15.1 bushels per seeded acre,
which was produced in 1924, would result in a crop of about 1,200 million bushels
Average yields would produce a crop of about 950 million bushels.

Production in excess of domestic consumption must either be exported or
go to enlarge domestic carry-over stocks. World trade in wheat has declined
sharply since 1929, largely as a result of drastic restrictions on imports and
increased production in major importing'countries. In the early part of this
period exports from the United States declined (figure 4) with those from other
surplus producing countries. During the past 3 years, small crops in the United
States, the result of abnormally small yields per seeded acre, were followed by
net importations.

Large-scale exports from the United States are possible this year as
the result of the large domestic crop of winter wheat, small world supplies
with prospective small crops in Canada, Argentina, and Australia, and rela-
tively high prices in world markets. Unless world production in 1938 is again
small or there is a considerable increase in export demand beyond present
expectations, the export market for United States wheat in 1938-39 would be
much less favorable than this year, stocks would tend to accumulate (table 7
and figure 5), and prices and incomes received by wheat growers for the 1938
crop would be materially below those of the current season.


- 4 -






- 5 -


THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION-

BACKGROUND Total world supplies of wheat, excluding
those of China and including only net exports from
Soviet Russia, averaged 4,100 million bushels for the
5 years, 1923-24 to 1927-28, increased to 5,013 million
bushels in'1933-34,, then declined sharply as a result
of successive years of. small production and increased
world demand. These supplies for 1936-37 are esti-
mated at 4,303 million bushels compared with 4,524
million bushels for 1935-36 and 4,711 million bushels
for 1934-35.

World nrrket prices of wheat have been moving
steadily upward since the spring of 1933, reflecting
higher world commodity price levels, four successive
below average harvests in North America and the 1935-36
short Southern Hemisphere crop. World prices during
1936-37 advanced sharply as a result of increased de-
mand and the smallest supplies in recent years.

World wheat crop prospects

The world production of wheat in.1937-38 excluding Soviet Russia
and China, is now estimated at 3,771 million bushels, or 7 percent above
the estimate of last year and 3 percent above the average production of the
past 5 years (table 1). The present estimate shows an increase of about 50
million bushels over the July estimate, which is largely accounted for by
increases in the estimates for the United States, Italy, Rumania, and India.
Upward revisions for these and other countries more than offset decreases in
forecasts since last month for Canada, Argentina, and Australia.

In Canada the unfavorable conditions previously reported, continued
through July. On July 31 the condition of the spring wheat crop was only
35 percent of the long-time average, compared with 51 percent on June 30,
1937, and 45 percent on July 31, 1936. The July 31 condition figure for
spring wheat is the lowest in 30 years. The fall wheat crop in Ontario is
estimated at 17,247,000 bushels, which represents an increase of about 5
million bushels over the small crop of 1936.. The wheat crops have matured
rapidly and harvesting is now under way in all parts of Canada. The 1937
season probably will equal the record for earliness established a year ago.
In Manitoba rains caused considerable lodging in the southern part of the
Province. Some good yields are being obtained but rust damage has lowered
grades amd will cause further losses to the late crops. In Saskatchewan,
wheat yields will be low, at best, with a great part of the acreage yielding
nothing but feed. In Alberta variable prospects prevail. Yields will be
below average but fairly good commercial crops are in prospect over much of
the Province. Present conditions indicate a total crop in Canada of only
about 165 million bushels.

A wheat crop of about 1,530 million bushels, for aErope excluding
Soviet Russia, now seems probable. This is about 45 million bushels, or


WS-10





WS-10


-6r


3 percent larger than the small 1936 production. It is, however, 3 percent
below the average production for the past 5 years. An increase of about 40
million bushels over the July estimate is caused by marked increases in the
estimates for Italy arid Rumania. The official estimate of 37 million bushels
for Greece seems out of line with acreage and condition figures and the more
conservative trade estimate of 27 million bushels, which is accepted by the
Belgrade office of the Bureau as the better estimate, has been used in the
production table. The total of the estimates for the four Danubian countries
shows a decrease of 30 million bushels from the large crop of last year but
is still above average. Smaller crops for Hungary and Yugoslavia account for
the decrease which is the result of reduced yields since the acreage is about
the same as last year.

Conditions in Soviet Russia are said to be very favorable and a good
harvest is expected. Harvesting is in progress in most regions but on July
25 was considerably behind a year ago. Conditions point to high harvesting
losses.

In North Africa production is estimated to be 2 percent above last
month's estimate, as a result of an upward revision in the estimate for Algeria.
The current estimate is 20 percent above that of 1936.

Present estimates in Asia, excluding China, indicate an increase of 4
percent over last year in contrast to a decrease reported last month. This
change is caused by large upward revisions in the estimates for Turkey and
India. The present estimate exceeds any recorded production for Asia.

In Argentina general rains are needed over the entire country. The
drought has held up seeding in some regions and has delayed germination of
the grain already planted. In the Buenos Aires region, however, which com-
prises over half of the total wheat acreage, the condition is reported to be
good and a considerable increase in acreage compensates for decreased acreages
in the drought areas. The general opinion is, that, in spite of adverse
seeding conditions, there will be an increased acreage of perhaps around 7
percent or more, compared with the 1936 acreage. If, however, the drought
should persist, any increase in acreage would undoubtedly be offset by lighter
yields. Moisture to date, on the basis of past rainfall and yield relation-
ships, indicates a production of around 210 million bushels.

In most regions of Australia rainfall is reported to be deficient.
The wheat crop is approaching the critical period in its development and the
outlook will be serious if good rains are not received before the end of
August. The crop is later than usual and present conditions point to a
crop of only about 140 million bushels.




WS-10


Table 1.- Production of wheat in specified countries,
1934-35 to 1337-38


Co-untry 193-35 : 1935-36 19337 1937-8


1, 000
: bushels


1, 000
bushels


1, 000
bushel s


1 001
bushels


NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
North America:
United States .............:
Canada ....................:
Mexico ....................
Total (3) ...............:
Europe:
f~_ l .9 1 f T -i


Engiana
Scotlan
Norther
Irish F
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Netherl
Belgium
France
Spain
Luxe mbu
Portuga
Italy.
Switzer
Germany
Austria
Czechos
Greece
Poland
Lithuan
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Malta .
A 1 .~_. _


& wales . :
d ............... ... :
n Ireland ..........:
ree State ..........
....................:
....................:
...................:
hands ...............:
..................:
....................:
.... ... ............ :
rg ........ ........ :
1 . . :
...................:
land ............... :
...................:
S.. ..... .. .... :
lovakia ............

....................:
ia ................. :
....................:
. . . .


Alb Uallia. ...................
Total (26) ............
Bulgaria ..................
Hungary ...................
Rumania ..................
Yugoslavia ................
Total (4) .............

Total Europe (30) .....


526,393
275, b49
10.9l50
813.192


65.259
4,144
363
3,-,03
1,204
27, 8 6
12,G47
18,042
16,757
338, 513
lS6,83e4
1,171
24,690
233,064
5,519
166, 547
13,306
50,014
25, 679
76, 441
10,476
8,051
3,107
3,280O
310
.. C' -y.-


c26, 344
281 ,935
10,712
918.9.1


G6, 592
4, 430


1, 7 67
1,767
23,610
14,672
16,65r3
16,101
284,9505
157,986
1,022
22,092
282,760
5,989
171, 48
15,509
62,095
27,180

713, c9g
6, 520
2,267
4,233
179


626,461
229,218
13. 6S
6s69. 28


51 ,445
3,547
273
7,8 3'
2, 09 4
21, 1525
11, 30
15,575
16,153
255,932
121,490
1, 070
s, 651
224,273
4,470c
6/162, 660
13,514
55,53-
21,335
78,357
7,949
5, 72

5,4~
236


890,o19
i165,ooo
12.949
.068.68


51,698
4,293
2! 240
2/, 7 300
7/ 2,200
/ 23,900
i/ 11,900
12, 643
_/ 15,100
52 62,713
4/139, 60:
1,123
14,550
294,000
6, 162
./i/143, 300
1/ 12,500
I/ 55,100
S' 27,557
1' 66.,1oo
3I 3,500
,/ ,5o00
J/ 2,700
6, 26
(200)
f -, .r \


: i, t% I, II i LU
: ;' 1 ,bjm, 1 1 ,1`7 4 ,1 ,1UD).
'193 ,g,06 1,274,726 1,099,u 1.176,
39,595 47,925 59,o04 64,227
S 64,824 84,2,2 S7,789 70,1,.6
S 76, 553 9, 439 128,717 128, O 2
: 68,328 7,101 7107,421 8/ 90,000
29, 0 30, 301, 68- 333, 231 352,935

: 1, 54,106 1,P76,41 i 1, 42,871 1,528,937


Continued -


--


---


----


--


- 7 -




7S-10


Table 1.- Production of heat in specified countries,
1934-35 to 1937-38 Cont'd.


Country 1934-35 : 1935-36 1936-37 :1937-3S
S1,00., 1,000. 1,000 1,000
Sbushels bushels bushels bushels
HORTHERq HEMISPHERE CONT'D
Africa:
Algeria .......... .......... : 43,528 33,532 29,774 34,362
Morocco .................... 39,5-6 20,036 12,234 I8,000
Tunisia .................... : 13,779 16,902 8,083 18,000
EFgypt ................... ..... :3.7,277 43,222 45.700 44.924
STotal (4) ...............: 134,170 113,692 95.791 115.286

Asia:
Palestine .................. : 3,044 3,834 2,795 (2,800)
Syria & Lebanon ............: 16,279 18,520 15,998 (16,000)
India ..................... 349,813 363,216 351,680 366,165
Japan .......................: 47,660 4s,718 45,192 49,603
Chosen .....................: 9,268 9,747 8,095 11,041
Turkey ...................... : 99,712 92,6'40 138,486 8/139,600
STotal (6) ..............: 525.776 536.675 562.246 585.209
Total 43 countries ......: .021.244 3,145..773 3.010.193 3.297.800
Estimated Northern Hemi-:
sphere total, excluding:
Russia and ,hina ......: 3,074.000 .3202,000 3,066.000 3,354.,000
SSOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
Argentina ....................: 240,669 141,462 247,814 i/210,000
Australia ....................: 133,393 144,217 150,170 (140,000)
Union of South Africa .......: 16,936 20.195 16.195 (15.000)
Estimated world total,
excluding Russia and
China .................: 3,521,000 3,574,000o 3,537,000 3,771,000


Compiled from official data except as otherwise noted.
lj Based on weather conditions to date.
2/ Approximates the estimate of the London office of the Bureau.
3/ Estimate of the Berlin office of the Bureau.
4/ Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau.
5] Forecast June 15 by the International Wheat Committee.
6/ Includes the Saar.
7/ Trade estimate. The official estimate of 37,242.000 bushels


is considered by


the Belgrade office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics to be too high.
8/ Estimate of the Belgrade office of the Bureau.


- 8 -





- 9 -


World wheat stocks and trade

World stocks of old crop wheat., excluding those of Soviet Russia and
China, on about July 1 are now tentatively placed at 525 million bushels, which
is about 235 million bushels less than stocks last year and the lowest since
1924. It is estimated that United States stocks were 39 million bushels less,
Canadian 85 million less, and Argentine 13 million less than a year ago. Stocks
in European countries-also are at the lowest levels in many years. While it is
still too early to have complete reports from European countries, the evidence
at hand indicates that stocks are perhaps 85 million bushels smaller than a year
ago.

The table accompanying figure 3 shows estimated world stocks of wheat
beginning with 1922, together with other supply figures. The table also shows
apparent world disappearance of wheat and average British Parcels price per
bushel.

World trade in what in 1937-38, on the basis of present prospects may
be between 50 ,nd 100 million bushels less than for the year ended June 30, 1937,
when an estimated 450 million bushels were taken by European importing countries!
and about 125 million bushels by non-European countries, or a total of about 575
million bushels. The comparable total for the year before was 494 million
bushels, and for 2' years earlier, 517 million bushels. On the basis of present
crop estimates and a reasr iable minimum carry-over, the following quantities, in
million bushels, appear available for export: Argentina 110, Australia 85,
Danubian countries 70, Cc.rnr.,da 60, North Africa and miscellaneous countries 25,
making a total outside of the United States and Soviet Russia of.325 million bushel

Exports this year will pro-lably depend to a greater extent than usual on
availability of foreign exchn.e between countries and reduction in demand.
European importing countries will undoubtedly again give preference to Danubian
wheat, which trade is largely on a barter or agreement basis 4/. Early esti-
mates, however, will probably be most affected by changes in production esti-
mates. The figures for the Southern Hemisphere countries are subject to consid-
erable change before the time of their harvest which takes place in November
through January. Present prospective supplies in the United States indicate a
surplus available for export of about 200 million bushels, but it is probable
that they will be confined largely to hard red winter wheat and be considerably
less than this .figure perhaps 100 to 125 million bushels.

Because of the small world wheat supplies this year, export possibilities
of Soviet Russia are of special concern. The figure used in the table was con-
sidered nominally at 30 million bushels. Resumption of wheat shipments from
the Union in small quantities at the beginning of Au-uist may presage exports on
a scale similar to 1935-36 and 1933-34 when net exports amounted to 29 and 34

3/ Excludes Danubian countries, Soviet Russia, Poland and Czechoslovakia.

4/ Early indications of import ier.ani'. by the United Kir.ndom, Germany, France,
Italy, Belgium, Spain and Portugal -ere discussed in "The WTheat Situation" for
July, pages 8-9.


7S-10





WS-10 10 -

million bushels respectively. The prospects for the 1937 grain crops in the
Union are favorable and although heavy. harvesting losses are indicated, the
outturn will undoubtedly be larger than in 1936. In that year a serious
drought affected grain crops adversely over large areas, and just as after
the drought year of 1934, exports during the 1936-37 season were insignificant.

The export outlook in the case of the Soviet Union always has had a
considerable element of uncertainty, since Soviet grain exports depend not
only upon the availability of an export surplus but also upon the policy of
the Government which has a monopoly of all export and import trade. The ap-
parcntly good 1936 crop and a high level of prices on the international wheat
market favor fairly large exports. On the other hand, the Government will
probably desire to replenish the grain reserves established for military and
other contingencies which were doubtless reduced during the past year by the
need of extending assistance in the drought-stricken areas. The Soviet Union
is also under no such pressure to expand its exports as it was during the
period of the First Five Year Plan. While it is true that there was a small
adverse balance of trade during the first half of 1937, this was apparently
due to a considerable extent to credit purchases. Moreover, gold production
has been on the increase in the Soviet Union, which was able during the months
March to June to ship nearly $150,000,000 worth of gold to Great Britain, i.e.,
an amount exceeding, several times over, the whole adverse balance of trade.
Judging from the experience of recent years of good crops (in 1.935 and 1933),
Soviet wheat exports are not likely to exceed 30 to 40 million bushels. Never-
theless, the possibility of the Government attempting somewhat larger exports,
particularly if the crop outturn should exceed that of 1935, or deciding to
export less, must not be overlooked. Tables 10 to 12 show figures on move-
ment of wheat in international trade in 1936-37 compared with other recent
years.

Foreign wheat prices 5/

Liverpool and Winnipeg prices have declined sharply since the middle
of July as the result of very heavy winter wheat marketing in the United States,
slow demand, and increased shipments from Danubian countries, besides early
offers and sales of Russian wheat to Europe. For the week ended August 14 the
October futures at Liverpool averaged $1.28 compared with $1.44 for the week
ended July 17, while at Winnipeg it declined from $1.43 to $1.28. Losses in-
both markets were about the same. Prices at Buenos Aires remained above an
export basis to Europe as a result of limited remaining wheat supplies. Table
2 shows prices of futures at Liverpool, Winnipeg, and Buenos Aires, together
with prices at Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis for the current season by
weeks.


5/ Domestic prices are discussed on page 15.





- 11 -


Table 2.- Average clcing prices .-.f September 1/ heaat futures,
specified markets end dates, 193b a,- 1937


i: inniDi, g : Liv-rp--l : Bueno : Chicago?. -Karsa City Minneapolis
Date : 7 : : Aires :___
S19iS6: 1937: 19 i : 1i97: 1036: 1-37: 13:" 1l9-LJ 1 LJ"_193L6:9 1937
:Cents Cents Cente Ccrts Cents CtCts Cents CenCts Cens Cents Cents Cents

Month-


July : 92.8 137.6 99.9 1'4.7


- in0.0 122.7 103.1 118.7 120.3 136.8


Week
ended-

July 3:

10 :

17:

24:

31:

Aug. 7:1


83.5

91.53


134.1 90.3 138.6

13s8.1 98.4 i4. 0.6


q2.4 142.9 99.0 144.1

93.0 137.6 101.3 1 41.0

38.8 131.9 1)5.2 137.0

06. 1.26.3 115.9 130.7


High 5] :106.0


142. 115.9. 144.1


Lo7 5/ : 83.5 126.3 9C.3 123.2


i/
92.S 124.5 97.9
r-'
36.2 122.5 106.
4/
97.7 12-4.3 10-.0



106. 122.; 103.9
1.',
.11.5 123. 112.4
4/

110.5 122.5 11?..
I!. 122.. 11-).

q92.8 122.^ 97.3


123.4 93.7 119.2 110.7 135.8

124.6 103.5 120,.0 121.0 139.6

]2.l1 1.02.5 122.1 120.1 141.6

121.3 10:.0 113.1 119.8 135.7

117.4 109.6 113.2 125.1 130.0

113.9 115.1 107.0 130.8 125.7

'12." .1.1 1'-.4 128.9 124.0

126.1 115.1 122.1 130.8 141.6

112. 93.7 105.4 110.7 124.0


October futures for Winnipeg and Liverpc, ].
Conversin-rs qt noon buying rate of exchange.
August futures.
October futures.
July 1 to date.
August, September, and Octob.-r futu.rec.
August and September futures.


__


WS-io


14:lo'l. 12S. 112'.2 123.2





WS-10


THE DOMESTIC HEATT SITUATION

BACKGROUND The carryover of wheat in the United
States for the 5-year period (1924-28) averaged about
115 million bushels. Stocks which began to accumulate
in 1929 reached the record peak of 373 million busnels
in 1933. Four small wheat crops since that time, how-
ever, reduced stocks to 142 million bushels by
July 1, 1936.

Domestic wheat prices since the spring of 1933
have been unusually high relative to world market prices
as a result of four small domestic crops caused largely
by abnormally low yields per acre. During 1936-37 both
world and domestic prices advanced sharply as a result
of increased demand and the smallest supplies in recent
years.

Domestic wheat respects

A crop of all wheat of 890 million bushels in 1937 is indicated by
August 1 reports on average yield per acre of. winter wheat and condition of
spring wheat. The final estimate of all wheat in 1936 was 626 million bushels
and the 5-year (1928-32) average production wis 865 million bushels. Yields
of both winter and spring wheat were reduced in a number of States from black
stem rust and in some places from high temperatures that caused premature
ripening. This not only reduced yields but also the average test weight per
measured bushel, the net result of which will be a lower output of flour per
bushel of wheat. Reports from crop correspondents and estimates of the Crop
Reporting Board are in terms of 60-pound bushels.

The preliminary estimate of winter wheat is 688 million bushels
compared with 519 million bushels in 1936 and 623 million bushels, the 5-year
(1928-32) average. The average yield per acre is 14.6 bushels compared with
13.8 bushels in 1936 and 15.2 bushels, the 10-year (1923-32) average. This
represents an increase of 24 million bushels compared with the indicated pro-
duction a month ago. The crop turned out somewhat better in Kansas, Nebraska,
and Missouri, and improvements over July 1 prospects were also noted in several
of the Western States and in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and New York. Reductions
in winter wheat yields as compared with July 1 prospects, largely due to
black stem rust, were shown in the Corn Belt States east of the Missouri River,
especially Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. South Dakota, Minnesota, 'isconsin and
Iowa also showed somewhat lower production.

Production of all spring wheat indicated on August 1, 1937, at 202 milli,
bushels shows a decline of 7.5 percent since July 1 as a result of drought,
heat, grasshoppers and :rust which did varying amounts of damage in North
Dakota and South Dakota and Montana where the largest declines in prospective
yields occurred. Rust damage was extremely spotted and varied with the variety
of wheat, the time of seeding and weather conditions since infection. On the
other hand, prospects held up well in Minnesota and improved in the pacific
Northwest States whore crops well above the harvests of both 1936 and the
5-year (1928-32) average are now expected.


-12-





WS-10


July 1 stocks

Stocks of wheat in the United Status as of July 1 comparable with the
series which covers the period beginning with 1923-24 (table 7) are estimated
at 103 million bushels. This figure is made'up of stocks on farms, in country
elevators and mills, in cities (cnLnmorcial stocks) and in merchant mills and
elevators. Stocks of old wheat on farms, July 1, 1937, were estimated at 22
million bushels and in interior mills and elevators at 12 million bushels,
Total stocks in cities (commercial) Were estimated. at 25 million bushels and in
merchant mills and elevators including stored for others at 53 million bushels.

Stocks of old wheat on July 1 on the basis of these figures were
estimated by the Bureau at approximately 91 million bushels. While stocks on
farms and in interior elevators ard'nills consist only of old-crop wheat, it is
estimated that there were 7 million bushels of new crop wheat in the commercial
stocks figure as of July 1 and about 5 million bushels in the figure for merchant
mills and elevators, which item included grain stored for others as well as
grain owned by mills. The July 1, 1936, estimate for conuercial stocks
included 4,581,000 bushels of new wheat. Ordinarily, new wheat does not get
into commercial stocks or merchant mills in significant quantities by July 1,
but stocks of old wheat were so low this year that new wheat was readily
purchased by mills and city elevators.

Stocks on farms and in interior elevators -:tnd mills and in cornercial
centers were estimated by the Bureau. The figures on merchant mill stocks
as released by the Bureau of the Census, Department of Co.imerce, were raised
to represent stocks in all merchant mills.

Table 7 shows supplies and distribution of 'whait, 1923-24 to date.
(It will be observed that the carryover for'1936 has boon changed from 138
million bushels previously published to 142 million bushels. An item of
4 million bushels of new wheat in commercial stocks not included last year has
now boon added to make a consistent series, which in every year is the sul:m of
old grain on farms and in interior mills and elevators and total grain in city
and merchant mill stocks).

Prospective suplios and distribution

An analysis of prospective wheat supplies and distribution by classes
for 1937' 38, on the basis of prospects at this tino, indicates that supplies
of hard red spring and duru:- wheat are anple to take care of the prospective
roquirements, and that there will be surplus supplies cf hard and soft red
winter and white wheats ever domestic requirements.

Table 3 shows the estimated July 1 stocks, current crop estimates and
estimated prospective utilization, by classes. Those figures are in torr.s
of 60-pound wheat and, therefore, take into consideration that h.ri red spring
wheat is running light in test weight. Some substitution of heavy hard red
winter wheat m-ny be, expected, which substitution is also taken int- considera-
tion in computing the table. The actual utilization by classes will depend,
of course, on a number of factors, two of which are the relative prices of the
different classes of wheat, and the prices of wheat relative tc feed grain
prices and supplies in the various sections of the country, especially during


-13-





WS-10 -14-


the period prior to the harvesting of the new corn crop. If exports amount to
around 120 million bushels, which seems reasonable on the basis of
prospective supplies in other surplus producing countries and an early
appraisal of:European demand, perhaps 85 million bushels of it would be of hard
red winter wheat.s Larger exports of this type of wheat would reduce supplies
available for domestic needs below a desirable minimum.


Table 33,- Estimated prospective wheat supplies and distribution
by classes for 1937-38, on basis of prospects,
August 1937

S:Hard : Soft : Hard : :
Item :Red : Red : Red :Durum : White : Total
,.- .. :Winter :Winter :Spring : : :
:Million Million Million Million Million Million
:.bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July 1, 1937 stocks ........:i/ 45 15 18 3 10 91
Production .................: 375 258 119 29 109 390
Total ................: 420 273 137 32 119 981
Prospective utilization.....: 281 197 110 27 50 665
Difference ..........: 139 76 27 5 69 316
Forcasted exports 2/.......: 85 5 0 0 30 120
Prospective carryover,
July 1938 .................: 54 71 27 5 39 196
Approximate "normal carry-
over ................: 54 24 27 5 15 125

1/ An estimated 12 million bushels of new hard red winter wheat not included.
2/ Includes flour in terms of wheat.


United States hard red winter wheat is a semi-strong bread flour wheat
and can be substituted by millers in importing countries for short supplies of
strong Canadiahneomi-strong wheats. As a result it is tc be expected that
importing countries will take about all the hard red winter wheat they can
obtain from us this year. Moreover, because of small world wheat supplies in
prospect, it is likely that more than the usual demand for soft wheats may be
expected. Most of the wheat produced in Europe and Australia consists of soft
varieties, and semi-strong and "strong" wheats such as produced in Canada,
Argentina and the southwestern United States area needed to produce a high
quality bread flour.

Table 8 shows estimated supply and distribution of wheat by classes,
1931-32 to date.





-15-


Domestic wheat prices

Wheat prices in domestic futures markets, influenced by the same factors
as prices in Liverpool 6/ declined sharply since the middle, of July as the
result of very heavy marketing of wheat in the United States, less urgent
demand from domestic millers, and increased shipments from-Danubian countries,
besides early offers and sales of Russian wheat to Europe. Table 2 shows
futures prices at Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis.

Cash prices in domestic markets declined with futures prices. For the
week ended August 14 Chicago September futures and No. 2 Hard Red Winter at
Kansas City and No. 2 Red at St. Louis were about 14 cents lower than for the
week ended July 17; No. 1 Dark Northern Spring at Miniicapolis.averaged'16
cents lower (table 6). While domestic prices are sufficiently under those in
importing countries for exports to take place, past relationships of spreads
and exports indicate that a wider spread will be necessary .fr large volume
exports. Table 4 shows cash prices in important domestic markets, and table 5
gives the price spreads between domestic wheat prices and prices at Winnipeg
and Liverpool.

6/ Foreign wheat prices are discussed on page 10.





Table 4.- Weighted average cash price- of wheat, specified markets and
dates, 1936 and 1937

:All classes: No. 2 No. 1 :No.2 Hard : No. 2 : Western
:and grades :Hard Winter:Dk.N.Spring:Ambor Durum:Rod Winter : whito
Date :six markets:Kansas City: Minneapolis:Minneapolis:St. Louis :Seattle 1/
:1936 :1937 :1936 :1937 :1936 :1937 :1936 :1937 :1936 :1937 :1936 :1937
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Month-
July ....:109.7 118.7 111.0 122.5
Week endod :
July 3 ..: 99.4 122.4 100.3 121.3
10 ..:108.8 121,9 111.4.122.2
17 ..:109.1 123..0 111.3 125.3
24 ..:110.2 119.7 111.4 122,3
31 ..:117.2 109.8 117.4 116.9
Aug. 7 ..:127.3 106.6 121.8 113.2
14 ..:128.3 106.6 121.7 111.8

High 2/ :128.3 123.0 121.8 125.3

Low / : 99.4 106.6 100.3 111.8


135.5 151.2 142.7 133.0 105.6 122.0 89.8 110.0


124.5
139.3
134.6
133.8
139.7
150.0
144.3


151.9
156.2
153.0
155.2
145.6
139.0
137.4


125.4
142.2
149.2
142.0
152.1
165.8
148.2


148.1 96.5 128.1 81.8
142.0 105.8 124.5 89.6
133.2 105.0 124.1 88.3
128.8 106.9 121.9 90.9
125.3 111.8 117.2 94.4
137.5 116.4 113.6 97.2
123.5 117.8 111..2 97.0


116.6
11.3.8
111.8
107.6
110.0
102.1


150.0 156.2 165.8 148.1 117.8 128.1 97.2 116.6

124.5 137.4 125.4 123.5 96.5 111.2 81.8 102.1


I/ Weekly averago of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ July 1 to date.


WS-10




- 16 -


Table 5.- Soreads between domestic wheat p ices and prices at
Winnipeg and Liverpool, specified periods, 1934-3T


: Futures per bushel
: Amount Chicago :Amount Kansas City :
Month and year : averaged : averaged
: above : above
:Winnipeg :Liverpool:Winnipeg :Liverpool


:Sept.

:Cents
May -
1934 : 15
1935 ........: 15
1935: ---
1936 ........: 6
1937 ........: 3
1937 *** 3
June
1934 ........: 16

1976 ........: 10
1937 ........: -
July
1.934 .......: 15
1935 ........: ---
1936 ........: 11
1937 ........: 15
Week ended.Aug.14
1934 ........ : 14
1935 ........: --
1936 ........: 10
1937 ........: 16


Oct.


Cents

16
13
- 2
- 14

20

3



9

-1I

14
10
2
- 16


Sept.

Cents

7

2
6



6
-9

14


19

12

1-
- 23


Oct.


Cents

9
q
-6
-17

12
0
- 2
-17

13
11
3
-22

13
12
3
-23


Cash wheat Der bushel
Amount No. 2 Ud.Winter
(Kansas City)averaged
above


No.3 Mani-:


*


Parcels
(Liverpool)


1/ Liverpool parcels not


avail able.


Table 6.- Averave D-ice ptr bushel


of wheat,


specified markets


and dates,193]


Date


Month


: Kansas:Minn~ aois:
: City : /
: / : nts
: Cents Cents


July ...........: 122.5


Week ended -
July 3 ...
10 ...
17 ....
24 ...
31 ...
Aug. 7 ...
14 ..
t


* .. ..

* *. .
.. ...
.


121.3
122.2
125.3
122.3
11.6.9
113.2
111.8


151.2

151.9
1.6.2
153.0
155.2
1U5.6
139.0
137.4


Winni- :Buenos :Liver- : Great : Brin
peg : Aires : pool :Britain: 6/
3/ : 4/ : 44/ : 5
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

1?,,9 126.0 143.7 129. 223.0


136.4
135.7
145.0
179.0
131.5
123.6
126.0


126.5
12. 3
126.5
126.3

125.5
123.1


i. 9. 4
1.42.6
14g.2

1440.
lo. 3
130.0
128.2


125.7
127.2
129. S
130.0
132.2
132.4


223.0
223.0
223.0
224.0
223.0


Prices a-e averages of daily prices for the week ending Saturday-excrot as
follows: Berlin prices a"e TWednesday quotations. Prices at foreign markets
are converted to United States money at the current rates of exchange.
I/ No. 2 Hard Winter. 2/ No. I Dark Northern Spring. 3/ No. 3 Manitoba Northern
W/Near futures. 5/ Home-grown wheat in England and Wales. 6/ Central German
wheat, wholesale trade price free Central German Station.


WS-10


toba
(Winnipeg):
Cents

2 ,
21
24
6

18
1 4
I

15

-16


23
07
24
-14


Cents

19
15

9

22
9
10
- 13

17
19
11.
-21

1/
i/

1/





Table 7.- Wheat: Supply, distribution, and disappearance in continental United States,
1923-24 to 1936-37


* Sunnlv


Stocks July 1::


Crop
year
begin-
ning : On
July : .farms


.1:,000
:bushels

1923-24 35,2 9
1924-25 29,349
192a-26 :.28,638
1926-27 :.27,071
1927-2 : 26,640
1928-29 : 19,58
1929-30 45,106
1930-31 60,216
1931-32 37,867
1932-33 93,769
1933-34 82-, 82
1934-35 62,516
1935-36 :44,339
1936-37 43 ,..
1937-38 :. 21,80

1I 1923 to 1926


In
:country
eleva-
Stors
*ar.i
: mills

1,00
.bushels

.37,117
36,626
25,287
29,501
21,776
19,277
41,546
60,166
30,252
41,585
64,296
48,150
31,799
22,476
12,312


b


:In mer- .
Comner-: chant
cial :mills and
stocks :elevators Total :
1i : and :
stored for:
:others 2/ :
1,000 1,000 1,000
ushels .bushels bushcls-


* 28,956
38,112
S28,900
16,148
S21,052
38,587
* 90,442
-109,327
203,967
S168,405
123,712
8o, 548
21,951
25,202
16,197


31,000
31,ooo
33,000
25,576
S27.,505
140,038
S34,920
S51,279
'59,170
41,202
71,714
107,052'
83,114
4/49,524
5/50,590
52,899


132,312-
137,087
9108,401-
100,225
109,506
112,372
228,373
288,879
313,238
375,473
377,942
274,328
1.47,613
142,256


New


:Imports
:(flour :
:included):


crop : 3


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


759,482
841,617
668,700
832,213
875,059
914,373
823,217
886,470
941,674
756,927
551,6833
526,393
626,344
626,'61l


14,578
304
'1,747
77
.188
91
53
35)-l
7
10
1:53
15,569
34,685
36,164~


Total
supply


1,000
bushels

906,372
979,008
778,848
932,515
984,753
1,026,836
1,051,643
1,175,703
1,254,969
1,132,410
929',778
816,290
g30,642
304,881


103,2'889O90,419


Bradstreets, excluding country elevator stocks.


2/ Stocks in merchant mills and elevators; 1923 and 1924 estimated in absence of actual
figure; 1925 to date, Bureau of Census raised to r*-resent all merchant mills.
Stored for others; 1923 to 1929 estimated in absence of actual figures; 1930 to date,
Bureau of Census raised to represent all merchant mills.
3V From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the Unitcd States; imports include
full-duty --heat, wheat paying a duty of 10 percent ad valorem, and flour in terms of wheat.
4! Revised on the basis of the 1935 Census of Manufacturing. 51 Au.ust osti:ic.te. Continued -


*





Table 7.- Wheat: Supply, distribution, and disappearance in continental United States,
1923-24 to 1936-37 Cont'd

: Distribution


Crop year
beginning
July


1923-24
1924-25
1925-26
1926-27
1927-28
1928-29
1929-30

1930-31
1931-32
1932-33
1933-34
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37


Exports and shipments I/
: :Shipments:


Exports : (flour
flour as: in-


Exports
(wheat
only)


1,000
bushels

78,793
195,490
63,189
156,250
145,99.9
103,114
92,175

76,365
96,521
20,887
18,800
3,019
311
'3,168


STotal


1,000
bushels

148,979
.257,839
97,358
.209,09.3
193,919
144,39.2
143,337


1,000
bushels

67,213
59,478
31,428
49,761
45,228
38,106
48,179

36,063
26,376
10,979
6,798
7,512
3,896
6,009


Seed


Disappearance


Feed
:(fed on
:farms of
.: wheat


S:growers),
1,000 "1,000
bushels bushels


74,111 .
79,895
78,828 .
83,264
89,864 .
83,663
83,353,


80,886
80,049
83,513
77,83g
.82,585
87,407
95,845


69,670
55,727.
,28,214:
.34,261
'44,507
56,566
58,769 .


157,188 .
173,991
.124,912
-72,261,
83,700.
83,168
93,282


'509,063
499,802
511,154
476,980
489,078
488,696
500,190


: Foods
and
:commercial:
:feeds
3/
1,000
bushels

476,525
'477,146
474,2235
496,391
544,091
513,842
477,305


Total


1,000:
bushels

620,306
612,768
581,265
613,916
678,462
654,071
619,427

747,13.7
753,842
719,579
627,073
655,363
659,271
689,317


1/ From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United States. Exports include only flour made
from domestic wheat; 1923-35 estimated on basis of total exports less wheat' imported for milling in
bond and export adjusted for changes in carry-over; 1935-36 'figure fdr exports of flour wholly from
United States wheat.
2/ Shipments are to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands (Virgin Islands prior to December
31, 1934 included with doirestic exports).
3/ Balancing item.
4/ For individual items see supply section.


: eluded)
S2/
1,000
bushels

2,973
2,871
2,741
3,082
2,692
3,172
2,983


2,850
2,757
3,023
2,779
2,783
2,908
3,009


wheat


115,278
125,654
34,889
28,377
13,314
7,115
12,276


313,288
375,473
377,942
274,328
147,615
142,256
103,288


: Carry-over
: 4/


lrOOO
1 000
bushels

137,087
108,401
100,225
109,506
112,372
228,373
288,879


&






Table S.- Wheat: estimated supply and distribution'b'y classes,
1930-31 1/ to 1937-38

Item ':1931-32:1932-33:1933-34 1934-35:1935-36 1936-37: 937-38
Mi llion: Million: MillionMillion: "lion:ill ion: Mill ion
:bushels:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels
All wheat
Stocks, July 1 ...: 313 375 378 274 148 142 103
New crop .........: 942 757 552 526 626 627 8g0
Imports ....... ..: -- -- 6
Supply ...... :1,25 i 1,132 930 g16 808 8015 993
ExDorts ..........: 126 35 29 13 7 12
Carryover ........ : 375 378 274 14g 142 103
Disappearance ....: 754 719 627 655 659 690
: Hard red Winter


Stocks, July 1 ...
New crop .........
Supply ...
Exports .........
Carryover ........
'Disatpearance ....

Stocks, July 1...
New crop ........
Supply .....
Exports ..........
Carryover .......
Disappearance ....

Stocks, July 1 ..
New' crop .........
Imports .........
Supply ......
Exports ..........
Carryover ........
Disappearance ....

Stocks, July 1 ...
New 'Orop ........
Imports ..........
Supply ......
Exports ..........
Carryover .......
Disappearance ...

Stocks, July 1 ..
New crop ........
Supply .....
Exports .........
Carryover .......
Disappearance ...


:153 238 201 126 68 57 57
:514 281 177 208 203 260o 75
~667 519 937 : 334 271 17 432
85 22 4 3 2. 3
:238 201 12 .. 68 5757
:344 296 248 263 212 257
: Soft red winter
S 23 59 31 3b 32 27 15
:262 159 162' 188 204 207 258_
285 218 193 224 236 234 273
: 3 --- --- --- ---
: 59 31 6 32 27 15
223 187 157 192 209 219
Hard red spring
: 5 49 98 7h 26 34 18
: 73 190 107 53. l08 s 5 119
--- --- '9 3 ---
:158 23 239 205 136 -164 113 137
--- --- --- ------
: 49 98 74 26 4 ': 18
S109 141 131 110 130 95
Durum .. .
30 14 16 8 5 7 3
: 22 42 18 7 25. 9 29
: .. -7 9 -
: 52 956 2h 22 34 25 32
5 2 --- ...
0: 14 16 8 5 7 3.
0: 33 38 26 17 27 22
White
: 22 15 32 30 17 17 10
S 71 85 88 70 86 99 109
: 93 100 120 100 103 116 11.9
.: 33 11 25 10 5 9
.: 15 32 30 17 17 10
4: 5 57 65 73 81 97


IJ See "The Wheat Situation" May, 1937 for
See table 7 for footnotes.


the figures for 1930-31.


- 19 -


WS-10





- 20 -


Table 9.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal
exporting countries, 1934-35 to 1937-38


: Exports as given by official sources:
Country :Total July 1 to date .shown: Date
S1934-35: 1935-36:1936-37. 1975-36:1936-37: 1937-38:


: 1,000 1,09j0 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels


1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels


United States ........: 21,532
Canada ...... .......:169,630
Argentina ............:187,000
Australia ...........: 108,007
Russia .. ............: 4,286
Hungary ..............: 12,499
Yugoslavia. ..........: 4,401
Rumania ..~...........: 3,432
Bulgaria ..........: 375
British India ........: 2,318
Total .........:513,480

: To
:1935-36


15,929 21,584
237,447 213,028
76,577 162,085
102,258 1/85,964
29,7041/ 3,973
14,644 226,658
.728 /16,669
9,996/ 31,830
987] 6,557
0 cc *a/i' ic


10,937 27,915
11,344 4,498


10,110
3,702


July 31
July 31


cj,J5o5 .12,258 .
490,826 580,606 ........
Shipments as given by trade sources
tal : Week ended (1937) : July 1-Aug. 14
: 1936-37 -:July 31:Au. 7 :Aug.14 :1936-37:1937-38


: 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels


North American 3/....: 220,464 225,902
Canada, 4 markets 4/..: 246,199 194,531
United States ........i 7,219 10,049
Argentina ............: 78,312 164,678
kAistralia ............: 110,576 105,836
.Russia ........... ...: 29,024 88
Danube.& Bulgaria 5/ .: 8,312 65,544
British India ........ :/ 2,5566/2/12,258


Total 7/.......:
Total European ship- :
ments / .. ........... :
Total ex-European
shipments 3/ .......:


AAQ449


F'?A 'Z(;


1,000
bushels


2,800
1,628
879
920
1,348
0
240
680


1,000 '1,000 l,oUU l,uuu
bushels'bushels bushels bushels


.2,512
is535
970
S888
1,812
184
416
840


3,870
1,417
1,696
853
917
88
872
352


38,840
32,337
802
7,054
7,012
0
3,360
472


16,422
7,995
5,448
4,909.
8,413
272
2,664
4,13,


M~74R 3iRlA


360,264 484,600 4,880 8/26,8088/19,04(


131,760


127.192


1,696


8/14,696 8/5,97E


Total of 11 months.
Broonmall's Corn Trade Iews.


2/ Total of


9. mon-ths.


Fort William, Port Arthur, Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and New wiestminster.
Black Sea shipments only. 6/ Official.
Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's,
but does not include items 2 and 3. 8/ To July.31.


WS-10


I


f w


- #




Wb-IU


Table 10.- Wheat surplus for export or carryover in the three
exporting countries; United Kingdom port stocks and stocks
July 1, 1934-37 1/


Position


1934


1935


1936


principal
afloat,


1937


:Mil.bush. Mil.bush. Mil.bush. Mil.bush.


Canada:
In Canada ...............:
In United States ........:
Argentina ..................:
Australia .. .. .... .......... :
Total ............:
United Kingdom port stocks ...:
Stocks afloat to:


213 215 145 50
10 9 16 6
107 68 34 20
83 54 37 29
413 346 232 1__ 05
15 10 10 11


United Kingdom ..........: 14 11 14 12
Continent ...............: 10 10 8 12
Orders ..................: 10 6 5 10
Total ........... 50 -_ 37 37 _A5 ~
Total above ......: 463 383 269 150
J- Carryover at the beginning of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina,
January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production,
minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly exports to date.


Table 11.- Shipments of wheat,including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1936 and 1937
:P Argentina : Australia Danube : North America
: 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


Week ended- :
July 10 ..:
17 ..:
24 ..:
31 ..:
Aug. 7 ..:
14 ..:
Compiled from


856 1,412 880 2,052 168
588 672 848 1,124 656
1,592 164 708 1,160 352
1,452 920 1,212 1,348 736
588 888 960 1,812 640
1,060 876 1,888 1,473 712
Broomhall's Corn Trade News.


808
120
208
240
416
704


5,360 1,440
5,720 2,488
4,280 3,312
5,688 2,800
6,848 2,512
5,616 2,518


Table 12.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
(Includes flour mi 936i and 1937from forcir -heat)_
: Wheat Wheat
Period Wheat. flour including flour
: 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937
: 1,01000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Week ended :bushols bushels barrels barrels bushels bushels
July 10 .......: 0 51 25 41 122 243
17 .......: 0 80 26 18 75 165
24 .0.....: 0 971 16 34 103 1,131
31 .......: 40 757 22 26 143 879
Aug. 7 .......: 0 758 42 45 197 970
14 .......: 5 1,484 7 45 38 1,696
Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce.


_ __ __ ____ __


-21T


I''







All Wheat: Acreage Seeded, Yield Per Acre,
and Production, 1919 to Date
ACRES I I I
(NILLIOM ) SEEDED ACREAGE
75

70
65 -


60 -

55
BUSHELS I I
YIELD PER SEEDED ACRE












(anMujons) PRODUCTION
1,00 -


80013 -
11

9


BUSHELS I
(MILLos) PRODUCTION

1,000


8oo -


600


400
1920 1925 1930 1935
US. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Pr LIMINARY NG p R91 UOF AGUCUWLU O ECONOMICS
FIGURE I.- THE WHEAT ACREAGE SEEDED FOR HARVEST IN
1937 WAS THE LARGEST ON RECORD* PRODUCTION DURING THE
PAST 6 YEAR HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED AS THE RESULT OF
SLALL YIELDS PER ACRE CAUSED LARGELY BY DROUGHT AND RUST.


All lnbsti Acreag. ..mdoa, ylle per ss,
aM production, 1919 to dats
I Yield I
Year I oeed I per I Produation
8 a eroag 3 seeded
I i sorO I
1 10001,000
3 rn

1919 T 77,4 12.3 952,097
1920 s 67,977 12.4 843,277
1921 67,681 12.1 818,964

1922 67,163 12.6 86,649

1923 4 6,510 11.8 759.482

1924 55,706 15.1 841,617
8
1925 : 61,738 10.8 668,700

1926 60,712 13.7 s32,213

1927 t 65,661 13.3 675,059
1928 71,152 12.9 914.373

1929 66,840 12.3 823,217

1930 67,150 13.2 886,470

1931 65.998 14.2 941,674
3
1932 : 65.913 11.5 756,927

1933 : 68.485 8.1 551.683

1934 63.562 8.3 526.393

1935 : 69,207 9.0 626,344
1936 z 73.600 8.5 626,461

1937 I 3 so,687 11.0 890o,419
1938

1 Preliminary.


L~ CL-~---~IIL~


..................


.. ..... ......





Winter Wheat: Acreage Seeded, Yield Per Acre,
and Production, 1919 to Date
ACRnES I I I I
(MILaLION) ACREAGE SEEDED PRECEDING FALL
50






35

30
BUSHELS I I \I
YIELD PER SEEDED ACRE
18is

16

14

12

10


BUSHELS I I
MILLIONN) PRODUCTION


800 -


600

400

200
1920 1925 1930 1935
PRUUMlNARY
U B.DEPARTMENT OF AGICULTUIE PRELIMINARY M3I5- *UREAu OFRUCULTURAL ECONMICA
FIGURE 2.- THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN WINTER WHEAT
ACREAGE SEEDED FOR THE 1929 TO 1934 HARVESTS. SEEDINGS
FOR THE 1936 HARVEST, HOWEVER, WERE INCREASED TO THE
SECOND LARGEST AND THOSE FOR THIS YEAR TO THE LARGEST IN
HISTORY. SMALL PRODUCTION IN THE PAST 6 YEARS WAS THE
RESULT OF LOW YIELDS PER ACRE CAUSED CHIEFLY BY DROUGHT.


Winter Wheati Acreage seeded, yield per aore,
and produtton, 1919 to date


Tear Yield I
of Aerea e per Produoction
harvest I slded I seeded* &
I I acre I
S 1,000 1,00
I sBreol bmbslm
3
1919 a 51.391 14.6 74s,86o
1920 45.505 13.5 613,227
1921 u 45,479 13,3 602,793
1922 7,15 12.1 571.459

1923 : 45,408 12.2 555,299
1924 38.638 14.5 573.563

1925 1 40.922 9.8 400,619
1926 4 o,6o4 15.6 631,607

1927 44.134 12.4 548,1s
1928 1 48,431 12.0 579,066
I
1929 s 43.967 13.3 586.239

1930 45,032 14.1 633.605
1931 45.647 18.1 25,396

1932 43371 12.0 491,795

1933 1 44.445 8.5 376.518
193 44,585 9.8 437,963

1935 i 47,064 9.9 465,319
1936 a 49,688 10.4 519.013

1937 1/ 57.157 12*. 688.145
1938

j Preliminary.







Wheat: World Supply and Price,
1922-23 to Date*


SUPPLY I
(BUSHELS)
(MILLIONS) Supply

5,000 -

4,800

4,600 ,.. \

4,200 /


4,000 t \
3,800 ^ World "
3,800 price

3,600 -
1922-23 '25-26 '28-29 '31-32 '34-35 '37-38


PRICE
(CENTS PER
BUSHEL)

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60


* YEAR BEGINNING JULY
* AVERAGE BRITISH PARCELS DEFLATED BY STATIST INDEX ( 1910-14 = 100)


U.5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 20691-8 BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIlURm 3.- PRImoR IN LIVENPOOL REFLECT CHANGE IN W*RLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND CON-
OITIONS FOR UMAT* IN OTNME OOUNTRlE RIS ICES MAY SE RELATIVELY HIGHER OR LOWER
THAN THOe8 AT LIVERPOOL AS A RESULT OF DOMESTIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING GOVERNMENTAL
OONTROL.
Wheat: World supply, disappearance and price, 1922-23 to xate

Production British
SNet Stocks Parcels
I i Canada : I eortls on Total : total :
Tear s United I Argen- 1 All I Wtorld from t I ly average
8 States stiaa and: 3 P1e 3 other I Po- t Russia July P : e ric parce
I 2 Au- I t Idution : : bushel
Si raliaI I :
I Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million
I bushels bushels bushels bushels b ushels bushels bushels bushels Cents
I
1922-23 87 705 1,o45 606 3,203 1 61 3.845 3.266 92
1923-24 759 847 1,257 656 3.519 21 579 '4119 3.396 84
1921-25 I 42 618 o05s 609 3,127 723 3.850 3,280 110
192126 669 701 1,397 613 3,o80 27 570 3.977 3.321 108
19227 832 798 1,216 6Us 3.194 1 656 4,199 3.51 108
1927-25 875 880 1274 644 3.673 5 688 4,366 3.612 104
1928-29 z 91 1.075 ,410 597 3.996 74 4,750 3,722 91
1929-30 823 54 161 706 3.584 7 1,028 4,619 3.675 101
1930-31 6 867 1,360 734 3847 112 944 4913 3.849
1931-32 942 732 1.46 755 3.865 70 1,o04 4,989 3,947
1932-33 1 757 898 1, 720 3,865 17 1.042 4,924 3,781 78
193-34 : 552 75 1.77 792 3.836 34 1,143 5,013 3,825 70
1934-35 526 650 1-54s 797 3.521 2 1.188 4.711 3.790 7
1935-36 ./ 626 568 1,577 803 3.574 29 921 4.524 3.762
1936-37 / 626 627 1483 o01 3.537 4 762 4,303 105
1937-38 3/ 890 515 1.529, 837 3.771
/ Icludae production and stocks in Russia and China.
/ Deflated by Statist Index (1910-14 = 100) and converted at par.
3/ Preliminary.







Wheat: Average Price at Liverpool and Kansas
City, and Net Exports From U.S., 1922 to Date"
CENTS
PER
BUSHEL A,-" Liverpool parcels PRICES


160


120


80


40
20
LIVERPOOL

-20


-4 0 I I.. '..T. 1 1 111l 11 N I It I' II I.. 11 1.1111 .111 i l I
1922-23 '24-25 '26-27 '28-29 '30-31 '32-33 '34-35 '36-37
BUSHELS -
(MILLIONS)
250


200

150

100

50

0


-50 -- I I a a' '
1922-23 '24-25 '26-27 '28-29 '30-31 '32-33 '34-35 '36-37
IMPORTS EXCEEDED EXPORTS
YEAR BEGINNING JULY


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 3132 0 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 4.- WHEAT PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES, AFTER
HAVING BEEN MATERIALLY ABOVE WORLD PRICES SINCE THE BEGIN-
NING OF 1933, HAVE NOW ADJUSTED TO AN EXPORT BASIS. HIGH
PRICES RELATIVE TO LIVERPOOL WERE LARGELY THE RESULT OF 4
SUCCESSIVE YEARS OF VERY SMALL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED
STATES. THE GENERAL TREND IN WHEAT EXPORTS DURING RECENT
YEARS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD, BUT SMALL SUPPLIES IN OTHER
COUNTRIES MAY CAUSE EXPORTS IN.1937-38 TO BE RELATIVELY
LARGE.










Wheat: Stocks in Major Exporting Countries

and Afloat, as of July 1,1922 to Date


BUSHELS
(MILLIONS) ust
Austral
800 Canade


600


400


200



1922 24
*INCLUDES UNIT
'INCLUDES CANA
t INCLUDES STOCI
UNITE
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


'26 '28 '30 '32 '34 '36
ED STATES WHEAT IN CANADA
DIAN WHEAT IN UNITED STATES
KS IN UNITED KINGDOM PORTS, SUPPLIES AFLOAT TO
D KINGDOM, CONTINENT, AND FOR ORDERS
NEG 21335-8 BUREAU AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGunR 5.- AFTER REACHING RECORD SIZE IN 1933 STOCKS oF WHEAT IN MAJOR EXPORTING
COUNTRIES AND AFLOAT HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO ABOUT THE LEVEL WI4CH EXISTED FROM 1922
TO 1927. THIS REDUCTION HAS BEEN LARGELY THE RESULT OF SMALL WORLD CROPS AND IN-
CREASED DEMAND. THE LARGE STOCKS WHICH ACCUMULATED FROM 1929 TO 1933 WERE PARTLY
THE RESULT OF INCREASED PRODUCTION, BUT THEY ALSO RESULTED FROM MEASURES WHICH IM-
PORTING COUNTRIES TOOK TO REDUCE THEIR WHEAT IMPORTS, AND THE EFFECT ON DEMAND OF
THE WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION*
Wheat: Stocks in major exporting countries and float, as of about July 1, 1922 to date

er ;I United States Canadian Argentina trala united Total
: grain / : grain I rgentn Australia : Kingdom
I Million bush. Million bush. Million bush. Million bush. Million bush. Million bush.
1922 110 48 2 29 61 330
192 134 44 67 1 6 352
1924 : 137 67 79 92 384
1925 111 48 73 1 51 323
1926 101 63 85 28 53 330
1927 111 67 89 46 59 72
1928 115 128 107 43 61
1929 : 232 152 155 47 61 647
1930 : 294 154 70 57 44 619
1931 : 328 158 94 77 56 713
1932 : 391 16l 73 58 56 739
1933 : 352 238 970 4 832
1934 : 274 222 143 101 48 788
1935 : 148 225 105 67 38
1936 : 142 155 73 53 7
1937 : 103 70 59 325
1938 _
Oompled as followsa United States tock. on farms, in country mills and elevators, commercial, in merchant
milla and elevator, and stored for others by merchant mills.
Canada 1922 1923, carry-over August 31, plus not exports and estimated retention of flour during Jily and
August. 1924 to date, carry-over July 31, plug net export and estimated retention of flour for Jtly.
Argentina Carry-over on December 31, plus exports and estimated domestic eonaumption, July 1 to December 31.
Australia 1922 1924, exports only plus estimated domestic consumption, J\ly 1 to December 31. 1925 to
date, carry-over on December 1, plus net exports and estimated domestic oonsumptlon, Jly 1 to November 30.
1/ Includes United States wheat in Oanada. g Includea Oanadian wheat in United States. ]/ Inludes took in
United Kingdom ports, supplies afloat to United Kingdom, Continent, and for orders.









Whebut Aweroge price per bunhl, anau V d Liverpol. mA margin bet-em the rLae. tb omaa. 1932 to date


io. 2 Hard i
Month Ia iater, i
iKauas Cityr
I Omits


Parcels I MrgeA.
Liverpool alas City over
I/ : Liverpool
Cents C2nts


o. a mrws rwarels *I Iga.
Wintse a Llwuaml Za. 01Cit vr
lanWsu Citt Liverlpool
GaBiL Olant ms


So. lamrs
tiatr i
z Nw


al au voErpao

0aso


July
lpt.
oot.
No.
Dec.
Jan.
0b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June

July
sat.
Sept.
Oct.
NOT.
DIc.
Jan.
rb.
Mar.
Apr.
JnW
Jose

July
Aog.
sept.
Oct.
Rev.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.

June



aot.

ow.
Jan.
Nb.
Ver.
Apr.
Mar
june


July 1 93-P 71.1 0.1. M i.o .9 12.1
Aug. 106.6 93.9 12.7 04. 6b.0 18.1 122.0 115.3 6.7
8ept. 107.5 85. 21.7 115.1 912 23, 122.1 13 .6 5
ct. 1 02.2 .7 25.5 119.0 98.6 2. 122.0 119.3 2.7
Nov. 101.8 76.0 .25. 112.6 16.3 6.3 121.9 115.1 6.6
ee. 1 04.2 o.8 23.4 110.8 93.1 17.7 134.2 125.6 5.6
Jan. a 10.9 78.3 a.6 na.6 99.2 5.4 131.o 132.4 6 5.6
M,. 99.6 6.0 23.6 110.0 91.4 v1 .6 1365 .o 1.5
ar. a 96.8 8.2 16.6 105.9 92. 13.5 iu.6 .1 2.5
Apr. 104.6 50.0 24.6 102.0 89.1 12.9 .0 1-9 i.1
a 98.8 84.0 1. 94.9 86.8 8.1 132.0 I 9.
a 87.7 79.0 8.7 96.0 85.9 10.1 120.s 133.4 12.6

Captled a. follower EKma u City- Emas City brain arftt evi. A er of daliy pWme wihteod by arltasales. Ltvw eli su h iasI
orn Trade leew. Staple average of dally prices. Oonuvrted from chilling per P rCal of w pounds to aon per badial at W p n s tle
July 1922-Dee. 1925, current monthly average rates of exchange. Jan. 196-Ag. 1931. at per. Mw (SUllm)w : t4.3328 ota.
Sept. 1931 to date current monthly average rates of iechange.
1/ Parcel are less than cargo lote.


heat,. Including Fnous lt exports and sports. VDited States, 1921-22 to date
Tear beginDg : I Tear be ginnng a pi Ter bea mi ao ii ewr l ors

ii a ii I II I
1921-22 265.590 1 5-2 92 .6 s as 1929-0 190 25.3
1922-23 205.079 1926b27 2 05. s 1930-31 112.35 1 ,, 3 2
922 131.s892 1927-M 1.578 1931-32 I3 30.3
19-25 a 254.695 19s-a29 14a2.3 1933-33 i 193-37 26.896
I lSet alports.
3 Pllainary.
t blee to aceofepso tart No. 313)0-.


S192-21 13P06 192Y
S112.7 1 1.1 29.1 95. .13. -2.1 1.5 -140. .3
S 104.3 129.1 214. 100.6 119.6 19.0 1190 151.5 3.5
S101.5 122.0 17.5 109.1 18.9 9.8 119.5 154.7 3
113. 134.3 21.0 111.9 M1.8 a.g 14.9 ly738
S117.. 136.9 19.5 108.8 118.9 10.2 1 .1 176.3 -
117.4 10. 2. 108.7 117.2 8.5 1616b 12.9 RL.3
a 11.5 137.8 23.3 112.9 121.0 .1 11.5 199.3 17.5
115.1 135.7 20.6 110.9 124.4 13.5 181.2 D8 8.6
115.6 1.7 -19.1 108.7 119.6 10.9 170.9 191.8 .9
S120.4 10.7 .3 2104.3 119.b .- 15.3 150.9 170.3 19.1
S116.2 13.6 22.4 106.3 121.2 1.9 lb2.9 14.2 .3
104.2 131-.4 27.2 108.1 125.8 17.7 910.2 173.3 18.1
19-i-2b 192b-2 19271-2
t 153.9 1S8.4 1-4.5 13065 lIt 30.I 135.06 1. -- 5
Slb3.9 172.2 8.3 131.0 162. 31.4 135.3 199.5 -
S157.5 15.9 1.4 132.0 159.6 27.6 1.6 1.9 3.3
* 158.2 148.5 9.7 138.6 171.3 32.7 128. 14 9.4 21.
S162.8 lb4.3 1.5 136.9 170.9 34.0 13.6 147.0 16.
a 171.b 184.7 13.1 137.7 163.5 25.l 131.8 147.5 15.7
s 178.1 1D.6 2.5 137.2 160.2 23.0 1328.7 159.5 16.1
S171.0 175.1 4.1 1354 157.1 21.7 13 .6 145.8 13.
. I.5 10. -0 132. 155-5 .7 1a.2 151.0 2.
19.1 170.9 -11.8 .7 159 5.2 15.5 159.0 6.6
S15.8 173.1 .3 1.1 1646 22.5 o0.0 15.1 9
S152.9 16.8 15.9 144.1 165.2 2.1 147.5 1.9 4 0.6

a 120-r 1".4 15.3 15.5 0.o i 21.3
S105.9 125.1 19.9 1. 142.1 19.5 D.6 105. 5.0
1 107.5 125.1 18.3 12lk4 137.4 77.6 91.4 13.8
S109.8 12s.6 18.8 1i.7 16.0 .1 74.4 5 U
112.4 128.9 16.5 11.7 127.4 .7 9. .6 .
S111.2 16.3 15.1 I 7 40.8 .1 70.6 73.5 -
a 114.5 130.6 16.1 11.9 139.8 .9 69.5 6.1 .4
S118.3 134.7 16.4 116 124.6 12.0 69.3 70.2 0.9
115.8 131.4 15.6 102.3 17.5 15.2 .2 67.0 3.
S110.5 124i9 14 10. 2.1 I.7 73.0 0.7 a 2.3
S100.6 115.7 15.1 99.1 11.6 15.5 .-1 7.2 0.9
S105.0 116. 11.8 88.7 109.9 6. 66.6 1.6
----- 151-3 --- -'-- 1-q~ae -- *- -- .0- ic-.-------
a 43.8 62.0 18.2 t4.9 3.9 9.0 95.0 79
S 42.7 52.8 10.1 47.7 57.4 9.7 59.7 67.3 4 2.4
U3.1 53.0 9-9 .5.2 11.1 7.1 72.8 t14.3
S 47.5 58.3 10.8 42 .- 9. 0 0.5 .5
S 5S.6 66.9 8.3 42.6 a2.0 9.4 a.1 68.3 4 15.8
a 52. 57.5 5.1 1.8.6 6. .A 54 15.o
S 52.6 56.1 3.5 13.6 6.6 4 6.3 15.1
53.0 59.9 6. .5 5.0 66.2 I
1 51.2 63.6 12.4 4.1 147.5 0.6 82.0 67.o 15.0
* 53.6 63.7 10o. bo.4 517 8.7 77.7 68.0 9.7
53.6 61.3 7 .0 1. 9.0 85.7 66.7 19.0
45.6 54.7 9.1 75.9 62.7 13.2 59.1 67.1 .0
1 _9 : 1 1 _


Li


- -- -- -





TS -10


OUTLOOK FOR THE 1938 RY'- CPOP

BACK(ROTND.- during the past 10 years rye acreage has
remained above pre-war levels due largely to the ex-
pansion of rye production into the sub-humid areas of
the spring wheat belt. In 1933 and 19V4 the harvested
acreage was greatly reduced because of heavy abandon-
ment. In both of these years and in 1936 production
was greatly reduced also because of unusually low yields.
In 1935 and 1937, production was large not only because
the acreage was large but because yields per acre were
above average.

With wheat prices high relative to rye prices and prospective feed
supplies above average, growers will probably reduce their rye acreage
from that of this year, when 3,960 thousand acres were harvested. For the
5 years (1928-32) the harvested area averaged 3,315 thousand acres.
It is not probable, however, that the acreage next year vill decline to
this average. An average acreage vith average (1912-36) yields of 12.1
bushels, would produce a crop of about 40 million bushels or about 5 million
bushels in excess of diaappearance under "normal" conditions. If the
acre-re is larger than average, and yields per acre are average, the excess
of supply over disappearance would be expected to be increased proportion-
ately, Iunless prices and supplies of rye relative to other feed grains in-
duced increased feeding. While average yields have been.used in these com-
putations, it is well to recognize variations in yields which are very im-
portant in determining production (figure 6).

Unless domestic rye yields per acre are low, world supply small, or
demand is increased beyond expectations, prices for the'1938 rye crop may
be lower than those received for the 1937 crop."

THE RYE SITUATION IN 1937;-38
The preliminary'estimate of the 1937 rye production Is.52.million
bushels and the carryover, computed as the total of June 1 farm-stocks and
July 1 commercial stocks, is-6 million bushels,: making a total.supply of 58
million bushels. It now seems reasonable to expect that about-7.5 million
bushels may be used for flour milling, about 11.5 million bushels.for dis-
tilling and, if seed and feed amounts to about 15 million bushels, total
disappearance would tetal about 34 million bushels. The amount used for
feed varies considerably from year to year, but with about normal feed grain
supplies this year, rye feeding would not be expected to be unusually heavy.
On the basis of these figures and a normal carryover of 8 to 10 million
bushels, around 15 million bushels would be available for export.

With our exports of rye'drastically reduc-d since 1927 and 1928,
mostly because of small crops, but also because of ample supplies or marketing
restrictions in European importing countries, it is difficult to appraise
the present export possibilities. While the opportunity for finding an
export market Tor our rye appears favorable -hen considered from the point
of view of European supplies, which are definitely below normal, imports by
European countries may be held to the minimum permitted by the supply
situation.


- 28 -





- 29 -


Table 13 shows the relative importance of the various important ex-
porting and importing rye countries. It -ill be observed that the United
States ranked first as an exporter in the period 1925 to 1929, since which
time Poland has taken the lead.

The situation is again reversed this year with the United States
having a substantial surplus and Poland having so small a production as to
cause that country to be close to a deficit basis. Only in the event that
the potato and beet crops turn out satisfactorily would exports from Poland
be expected. Some small surplus supplies of rye may be available this year
from the Baltic countries which appear to be harvesting considerably better
crops than in 1936. Because of the very short rye crop in Germany, that
country is attempting to meet the deficit by forbidding the use of this grain
for stock feed and by making other imported feeds available. Direct pur-
chases by Germany of United States rye, however, are likely to be of little
consequence.


Table 13.-


International trade in rye, .including flour, by important
countries, average 1925-2b to 1929-30, annual
1932-33 to 1935-36


Year beginning July
:Av. 1925-26: 1932-33 : 1933-3 193l-35 1935-6
Country :to 1-29-30: 193
:Net : tt Net : i t t-: Net : Net : et : Net : iet : Net
:ex- :- : ex i- c :- : im- : x- : im- : im-
:ports:porrs:por:pports :ports :ports:ports:ports:ports:ports
:Mil. :Mils :il. :hil. :Mil. :Mil. :. :bi :Mil. :Mil. :Milh.
:bush. :bush. :b.ish, :b-.ash.: bsH. : bush. : busEh. :bush. :bush. :bush.


United Stotes : 14.6:
Soviet Russia : 7.4:
Hungary .......: 6.6:
Canada ........: 6.2:
Argentina .....: 4.5:
Poland ........: 4.1:
Germany .......: 1.7:

Denmark .......:
Norway ........:
Finland .......:
Austria .......
Tetherlands ...:
Czechoslovakia.:
Latvia ........
Sweden ........ :
Estonia ....... :
Belgium ....... :


0.5:
9.6
3.0:
5.1:
5.3:
12.6


7.7:
7.0:
6.2:

4.0
3.7:
3.2:
2.5:
2.2:
1. :


Principal c-xporting countries
-- 12.0 ---: 11.2:
: 5.8: : 1.2:
: 6.5: 1.3:
: 2.8: : 1.0:
: 3.9: : 10.6:
S : 23.4: : 25.5:
9.: 11i.: ---: 8.9:
Principal importing countries


: 10.4:
5.0:
2.6:
1.1:
8.5:
0.6: ---:

: 0.7:
..0: ---:
: 4.2:


: 10.7
5.7:
2.3:
0.3
9.7:
0.6: ---

.: ---:
_--_: -__:
- : :
: 9.0:


3.4:
3.5:
1.1:


6.9:
4. 6:
0.7:
3.1:
2.5:




3.3:


---:
2.8:
0.3:
2.0:
4.2:
18.4:
---:









1.6:
0.2:
:


2.3





0.0

6.9
5.9
2.9
1.8
3.0
0.1



5.7


WS-10




WS-10


A European rye crop somewhat below that of last year now seems
definitely in prospect (table 14). For the 16 Ei-ropean countries for which
estimates have been received, a crop.of 634,368,000 bhshels, or 56 million
bushels less than the small crop of 1936 is indicated. The total of the 16
countries constitutes 85 percent of the July estimate of total European
production, issued by the Berlin Office of the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics. The decrease in this year's crop is accounted for almost wholly
by the decreased production in Germany and in Poland (the most important
European exporter in recent years), decreases of 39 million bushels and 26
million bushels, respectively, compared with last year. The rye and meslin
crop in the Danubian countries is somewhat smaller than the 1936 crop, being
estimated by the Belgrade Office of the Bureau as 64 million bushels this
year compared with 68 million bushels a year ago.

In Canada the production of winter rye is estimated at 4,276,000
bushels compared with last, year's short crop of 3,042,000 bushels.





Table 14,- Rye: Production in specified countries, 1934-37


Country


: 1934 : 1935 : 1936 : 1937

: 1,000 1,0 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushel s bushels bushels


United States .........:
Canada 1/ .............
Total (2) .........
Austria ...... .........
Bulgaria ...............;
Czechoslovakia .........:
Estonia ......... .......
Finland ................:
Germany ... ...........:
Greece ................
Hungary ...............
Latvia .................
Luxemburg .............
Notherlandc ............
Poland ..... ...........
Portugal .............
Rumania ................:
Sweden ................ .
Switzerland .............


17,070 58.597
3,588 7,795
20,658 66,392
22,617-- 24,416


6,438
55,970
9,064
15,544
299,496
2,466
24,380
16,210
548
19,788
254,472
4,913
8,308
20,351
1,225


7,767
64,501
6,804
13,760
294,399
2,133
28,650
14,326
452
18,311
260,498
4,635
12,724
16,902
1,252


25,554 51,869
3,042 4,276
28,-596 56 145-
18,129 2/17,700
8,668 9,763
56.549 2/59 ,100
6,044 8,110
12,755 14,960
290,768 2/252,000
1,919 2,986
28,114 25,353
11,260 L/ 15,668
449 488
19,059 16,535
250,541 2/224,400
3,652 4,645
17,842 15,747
13,891 2/ 15,700
1,077 1,213


Total (16) ..........: 761,790


771,580 740,737 684368


-/ Winter wheat.
2/ Estimate of the Berlin Office of the Bureau.


-30-





WS-10


Table 15.- Rye: Acreage, yield, production, supply, indicated
disappearance, net exports, and price, average 1928-32,
and 1934-35 to 1937-38


: : : Production : Iet :Stocks: Indi-
ver- Aver- : : World :U.S.as:imports at end: cated
Year age :age United exclud-:per- :includ- :of dis-
beginning har- yield State ing :cent- : ing :crop :appear-
July vestedper : :Russia :age of: flour year ance
: : : and :world :
: :acre :China : :1/ :


Farm
price
per
bushel


* :1;000 1,000 Million Per- 1,000 1,000 1,000
acrosss Bushels bushels bushels cent bushels bushels bushels Cents


Average :
1928-32 :3,315


:2,035
:4,141
:2,757
6/:3,960


11.5 38,212

8.4 17,070
14.2 58,597
9.3 25,554
12.7 50,398


969 3.9 3/2,686


942
971
913


1.8
6.0
2.8


11,230
2,236
4/3,752


11,283 --- 71.8
22,299 49,817 39.5
(6,001)(45,604) 5/80.5)


1/ Total imports minus total exports (domestic plus foreign)
( 1 bbl. of rye flour 6 bushels of rye).

2/ Includes stocks on farms as of June 1 availablee only beginning with 1935
and only for June 1 ) plus conmerciLl stocks as of July 1.
3/ Net. exports.

4/ Net imports for 11 months (July May).
5/ Prelimincay figure published December 1936.

6/ July 1 indications.


1934-35
1935-36
1936-37
1937-38


55.2









Rye: Acreage, Yield Per Acre, Production,
Exports and Imports, and Farm Price
ACRES I I I I I I I
(MILLIONS) ACREAGE HARVESTED

6


4


2



BUSHELS I i I I 1 I II


15

10

5

0
BUSHELS
(MILLIONS

100


50


0


YIELD PER ACRE






S I I II I--- I -
) PRODUCTION, EXPORTS, AND IMPORTS

Net exports l}Productton
SNet imports


n4


CENTS I I I I II
PER FARM PRICE
BUSHEL

100

50


1900 '05 10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35
YEAR, BEGINNING JULY
U S DEPARTMENr OF AGRICULTURE *AUG. 1 STlMATE NE os-B BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

FIGURE 6.- RYE PRODUCTION INCREASED PRIOR TO 1920
LARGELY AS THE RESULT OF EXPANSION OF RYE ACREAGE INTO
THE SUB-HUMID AREAS OF THE SPRING WHEAT AREA. SINCE
THE WAR THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR ACREAGE TO FLUCTU-
ATE NEAR THE 1928-32 LEVEL, ALTHOUGH IN RECENT YEARS IT
HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CROPS IN 1933, 1934, AND
1936, LARGELY THE RESULT OF HEAVY ABANDONMENT AND UNUSU-
ALLY LOW YIELDS, CAUSED SUPPLIES IN THESE 3 YEARS TO BE
REDUCED BELOW DOMESTIC REQUIREMENTS. THE ACREAGE HAR-
VESTED IN 1937 WAS AGAIN LARGE AND YIELDS WERE ABOVE
AVERAGE*




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

lliIiiiiii3 1262 088618ii9l
3 1262 08861 8219


Rye: Acreage, yield per acre, production, net exports or imports,
farm price, United States, 1900 to date

: Yield : Net : Farm
Year Acreage per acre Production : exports price i/
: Der acre : exSorts price


: 1,000 acres


1900
1901
1902
190

1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
19214
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1935
193.
1935
1936
1937 .1
1935
1.917


Bushels 1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels


2,127
2,409
2,444
2,260
2,205
2,297
2,154
2,073
2,130
2,212
2,262
2,452
2,724
3,089
3,144
3,417
3,528
5,059
6,694
7,168
4,825
4,851
6,757
4,936
3,941
3,800
3,419
3,458
3,310
3,130
3,621
3,162
3.351
2,418
2,035
4,141
2,757
3,960
3,960


12.9
12.8
13.9
12.8
12.9
13.6
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.6
12.9
12.8
13.9
13.1
13.4
13.7
12.2
11.9
12.5
11.0
12.8
12.6
14.9
11.3
14.8
11.1
10.2
14.8
11.5
12.4
10.6
11.8

8.4
14.2
9.3
13.1


27,413
30,773
33,862
28,932
28,461
31,173
29,609
28,247
28,650
30,083
29,098
31,396
37.911
0390
42,120
46,752
43,o89
60,321
83,421
78,659
61,915
61,023
100,986
55.9,61
42:316
34,860
51,076
37,910
35,282
4,o6s
33.378
39,424
21,418
17,070
58.597
25,554
51,869


2,345
2,712
5,444
751
9
1,387
769
2,443
1,295
212
2/ 187
2/ 103
1.854
2,236
12,880
14,684
13,275
16,352
35,829
40,454
46,885
29,244
51,564
19,900
50,241
12,646
21,697
26.345
9.748
2 599
139
908
304
11,998
11,249
2,257
1 2,297


I December 1 farm
j Net imports.
SPreliminary.


Table to accompany Chart No. 20705-B.


Cents per bu.

51.2
55.7
50.8
54.5
68.8
61.1
58.9
7).1
74.
74.6
73.4
81.0
68.7
62.9
83.3
85.0
113.0
176.4
152.1
145.9
146.4
84.0
63.9
59.3
95.2
79.1
83.0
83.5
83.6



62.7
71.8
39.5
80.5


price, 1900-1907: beginning 1908, average season farm price.




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID ERS1R33ZC_P5555M INGEST_TIME 2013-02-07T17:08:49Z PACKAGE AA00012162_00025
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES