Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00018

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' THE


WS 99


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL

250


200


150


100


50


0


FOR RELEASE
APR.18, A. M.




SITUATION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

~ FI FEB- API



WHEAT: PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS AND
PARITY PRICE, UNITED STATES, 1909-47


RIL 1947


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
PARITY PRICE NOT AVAILABLE BY MONTHS. 1910-22


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39712 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Wheat prices have been above parity since early May 1946, except for August.
Since 1920, prices received by farmers for wheat have been above parity in 1924-25,
1925-26, and 1936-37, as well as during the past year. In 1924, foreign demand for
United States wheat increased as a result of a very small crop in Canada. In 1925, the
crop in the United States was small, and in 1936, United States supplies were greatly
reduced following 4 years of drought. In World War I, the world supply was small, com-
pared with demand, and prices in the United States rose considerably above parity. In
World War II, supply as well as demand was very large.





- 2-


Table 1.-Average price per bushel of wheat received by
parity price, United States, 1931-47 i/


farmers and


(Data for Cover Page)
Year: : : : : : Marketing
be- :July :Aug.: Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : June : year
gin: 1 aver-
ging: 15 15 15 5 15 1515 15 :15 15 5 : 15: 15: 15 : 15 : e
J ly: : : : : : : : : : : : age
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
: Average Price 2 -
1931: 36.3 35.4 35.7 36.1 50.5 44.1 44.1 4.0 44.2 43.1 42.4 37.3 39.0
1932: 35.6 38.5 37.4 34.6 32.8 31.6 32.9 32.3 34.5 44.8 59.0 58 7 38.2
1933: 86.9 74.7 71.1 63.6 71.1 67.3 69.4 72.0 70.9 68.7 69.5 78.9 74.4
1934: 78.8 89.6 92.2 88 5 88.1 90 6 89.3 87.9 85.5 90.2 87.8 77.3 84.8
1935: 76.4 80.8 85.1 94.8 87.5 88.9 92.0 91.1 89.3 85.4 81.6 79.9 83.2
1936: 94.1 104.8 104.3 106.8 106.4 114.5 123.6 124 9 123.2 126.6 118.3 108.9 102.5
1937:112.8 99.4 93.0 88.7 81.9 83.6 88.6 86.6 80.3 75.0 71.4 69.7 96.2
1938: 60.8 50.7 52.5 52.2 52.0 53.6 57.1 56.9 56.7 57.8 63.0 62.5 1/56.2
1939: 55.7 54.5 72.7 70.3 73.1 82.4 84.5 84.1 85.0 88.9 80.7 67.4 69.1
1940: 61.4 60.1 62.6 68.2 72.5 71.5 73.0 67.8 71.8 76.0 79.4 83.1 68.2
1941: 85.6 88.5 95.8 91.0 93.4 102.2 106.1 104.9 105.1 99.7 99.8 95.7 94.5
1942: 94.6 95.4 102.8 103.5 104.4 110.3 117.5 119.5 122.7 122.3 122.8 124.0 109.8
1943:126.0 127.0 130.0 135.0 137.0 143.0 146.0 146.0 146.0 147.0 147.0 143.0 136.0
1944:139.0 135.0 135.0 142.0 143.0'145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 150.0 141.0
1945:146.0 145.0 145.0 151.0 153.0 154.0 154.0 155.0 158.0 158.0 170.0 174.0 150.0
1946:187.0 178.0 179.0 188.0 189.0 192.0 191.o 199.0 244.0 185.0 4/
: Parity Price 5/
1931:124.6 122.9 121.1 120.2 118.5 118.5 114.0 114.0 112.3 111.4 109.6 108.7
1932:108.7 108.7 107.8 107.0 106.1 105.2 100.8 100.8 99.9 100.8 100.8 101.7
1933:105.2 108.7 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 109.6 111.4 112.3 112.3 113.2 113.2
1934:113.2 115.8 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.7 114.9 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8
1935:114.9 114.0 113.2 113.2 112.3 112.3 111.4 111.4 110.5 110.5 110.5 109.6
1936:112.3 114.9 114.9 114.9 114.9 115.8 116.7 118.5 118.5 120.2 120.2 120.2
1937:119.3 118.5 116.7 115.8 114.9 114.0 114.0 114.0 113.2 113.2 113.2 112.3
1938:111.4 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7
1939:108.7 107.8 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 111.4 111.4
1940:110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 111.4 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 112.3 114.9
1941:115.8 118.5 121.1 122.9 124.6 125.5 127.3 129.1 130.8 131.7 132.6 132.6
1942:133.5 133.5 134.4 135.3 136.1 137.0 137.9 139.7 140.6 141.4 143.2 144.1
1943:145.0 145.5.0 45.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 150.0
1944:150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 151.0 151.0 152.0 152.0 153.0 153.0 153.0 153.0
1945:153.0 153.0 154.0 155.0 155.0 156.0 156.0 158.0 159.0 160.0 164.0 166.0
1946:176.0 180.0 177.0 183.0 187.0 188.o 190.0 195.0 202.0

1/ Data for earlier years in The Wheat Situation as follows: 1909-21 November 1941,
pages 12 and 13; 1922-30, August 1945, pages 20-21.
2/ Monthly prices by States weighted by production to obtain a price for the United
States; average for year obtained by weighting State price averages for the
marketing year.
3/ Beginning 1938 includes unredeemed loans at average loan value.
Preliminary.
SComputation of parity price: Average price in base period (August 1909 to
July 1914) x monthly index of prices paid by farmers, interest and taxes. Example
for March 1947 = 88.4 x 2.29 = 2.02.




ws-99


7 TE H E- S T T A T T 0N


Approved y -e Oiu-lool-: nd Situation Bo3rd, Anril 10, 19L7

S'TiY OF SITiAOTTCH. AKE 0 O100K

Another "i,7 Urni.e.ed St'- es T. rheat crop may be :arveste in lc'17. On
March 7, farmers re-ored t':- they intcd 'to seed 1").2' million acres of spring
whenat. If :,hi acrae'- e is actu-.lly plen:ed ni yields eq.:al 1he 137--l6 average
produc':_on of ii sprig whea ould 'oe ,I.out 2r6, million bushes 'is, con-
binc- vi". ;e Aril es't te f i 07? illio- n bushls c-" winter ht. in-
dic:.: be a 1'7 'he.- cr' of a:.-nroxin-ely 1.2 0 million 1s3hels.

If 'le cro-o is this size and domestic d's"--,npear'nce ':s a:min abou- 790
million iusel Lcut 150 million bushels ill e aTilable either for exniorb
in .. or -d-dition ca rr-.-over- Jul3 1, 1_,3. Ex:pors p roably will again
be lar e in 1'7 -! blt scre 4ncr -'ss n .he carry-over- on July 1. 18 is
likel;. 0Co occur.

hoe pricesz ro '-e ra'Rialy from o Jn--y to March 1, *rd hen drooped
sha rply. I L .ut h -ve s ta-yd sb ns 1- ove Jan:r- levels. arket sIunrlies are
generally salll, scipecially i_ the so--thwreEt ;iber- heat tarea and where -urchasec
for e -r-,rt har ,: been heavy. Carry-over of old whe- probably will be aort
th e same -s last ye. ... ConSe'j -utl. rices are ex-ec-ed to E cin at 1-ih
levels un'il t-he movc-c-ent of the new ':ier cro;n ,ecres Geneera. Even when
new what corsas c ':,irk-t -he sea-sonal delinr- will be rioderated by thcc hevy
forem .n and donest'ic der_'nc .

Su;nort for U. S. whea,'. n.rices :t o' percent of oarity is provided intil
the end of 1 If -"ri .rst ine 15. whe n the 1 2<7 c- loan r'-te is deter-
mined s' the sa:e s in Mare h, .:. -vera.-e lo:n r os, -c grower for the 197 crop
Would e .o91 ", .2 1., c ,! f"...er. 1- "re Lhan he Il.h for the 1946 crop,
aut "aterialla 1vc' > '-'a'' r'-e of ,,.2

As ':.-ri,',lz-ural 'rc'u'l~- i -'r d -ef:eit c-'ntries is iC-.i"ally restored,
iroorts w'l dibc7erse LiT-" ,-,- i'o'.ei.Lm e:-:?.ran. in mr'nny .r c-:ntries will restrict
exneni--Liti--s 3.o T'he c. ssen- il foo" ia-seir;' s, 7'a--irticu!larlyT blre:i grains.
Fi'nncina ?f i.r-lorcs w Cthoeir- eroorts s"in ro recover ,.

SCron ct in rone for l. 1 exce-; for I-al-. and the lanu, a an
countries. are not f v"rable.1. Conditions in nTorth f-rica a-re reported satia-
foctor-y e~-erc in 'sio. In Indci ;-,were the harv s i n'o in progresss, pros-
perc: .-are fo-r r'ou-i an --era.'e cron. MoisLtre condi'i. n i Can".a are Gene-rally
fav or; .l '"


(-For -lease --.ril 1 A.M.)




FEBRUARY-APRIL 1947


The total U. S. supply of wheat for the current year (ends June 30, 1947)
was 1,256 million bushels. It is now expected tnha; exports of wheat from this
supply (as wheat or flour) will be '.bout 360 million bushels. Domestic uses are
expected to total 792 million bushels: 525 for food, 180 for feed, and 87 for
seed. This would leai'e a carry-over of old-crop wheat about the same as the
100-million bushels las July 1. The 132o-41_. prew ar average was 235 million
bushels. Last July the- CCC owned 30 million bushels of wheat as grain, at least
17 million bushels of which was old-cro: wheat. The Corporation does not expect
to have any old-crop w,.heat or next July 1.
(For Rele:se April 18, A.M.)

TIE OUTLOOK FORE WHEAT'

BACKGROiND.-The acre-ge seeded to wheat for ,he nas- 3 crops
avere d 68.94 million acres, about the same as the 6--mil-
Iloni average for 1932-41. Very large yields per seeded acre
in these three years we-e responsible for the record crops.

An abnormal world demand for bread grains has made it possi-
ble to move the domestic surplus front three successive record
crops "nd, in addition, to cut down .rry-over. On July 1,
]_.47. wheat stocks wi'.ll be only -about a third as large as on
Joly 1, 194. .

Record ".-, :t Cro- In Prospect

A record U. S. wheat cron is in prospect for 19'!7. Moisture conditions
are favorable in the sr'iing wheat area. If th:e oros-ective spring wheat acreage
is real -_d snd yields eoaual the 1937l'-46 average ,by Statees. production of all
spring whoe t would be about 265 million bushels. This combined with the April
estimate of cbout '97 milli on bushels of winter wheat would give 9 production of
all wrhea-t in 1947 of approiimr. tely 1, 240 million n bushels.

Another la-rge crop In 1947 is desirable. cro' of about 1,240 million
bushels, .;nd domestic use aerain of about 700 million bushels would provide
about 450 ',illlion bushels either for exnorts in 1947-48 or for addition to
carry-over July 1, 1. 1r-34 -. --ts probably will a;ain be large, but some increase
in -he carry-over on July 1, 19iQ also is likely.

Total 'l eat Acreage up 8 Percent; Little
n- Prospective Spring Seedings

A tot el of 75.71 million acres of all wheat is reported seeded or to
be seeded for 1947. This includes the prospective spring whest acreage. and
last December 's estimate of winter wher.t seeded acreage. This would be 6 per-
cen' larger than in 1-'!-6 and the large since 1938.


- h -




ws-99
-5-

On March 1, growers reported that they planned to seed 19.28 million
acres of all spring wheat. This is only slightly less than the acreage seeded
last year, and only about 1 percent above the 19.08 million-acre average in
1936-45. The prospective seedings of durum acreage, most of which is in North
Dakota, is 2.76 million acres, nearly 11 percent over last year, but about 2
percent under the 1936-45 average. Acreages of other spring wheat are below
last year. Prospective durum and other-spring wheat acreages compared with the
acreage of recent years are shown by areas in Table 1.

Crops in Exporting Countries May be Larger
In Many Importing Countries Less Than in 1946

Early prospects indicate that the 1947 crop in exporting countries may be
larger than in 1946, but smaller in many importing countries. In exporting
countries, s..upples available for export will depend on 1947 crops, as the
carry-over of old-crop wheat in these countries will be so small that little
further reduction in stocks will be possible.

Reports from Europe on winter grain crops except those from Italy and
the Danubian.countries, are generally not favorable. Conditions reported
include:, (1) Heavy winter killing, especially in Western and Central Europe;
(2) very late reseeding due to weather conditions and limitations resulting
from shortages of seed suitable for spring sowing, lack of fertilizer in some
areas, and relatively high prices of other grains; (3) flood damage to winter
wheat, especially in England, but also in Spain and Portugal; and, (4) very
small acreage in Eire, and not much increase in spring seeding likely. Grains
in Soviet Russia are reported, to have wintered favorably.

Conditions in North Africa, except for draught in Tunsia are generally
reported to be very satisfactory. In India, where the harvest is now in progress,
prospects are for a crop about equal to the 1935-39 average of 371 million
bushels. Production last year was 332 million bushels.

In Canada, moisture conditions are uneven but no area. has any serious
deficiency. Precipitation in the Prairie Provinces from August 1 to October 31
was 119 percent of normal, compared with 102 percent a year earlier, and 88 per-
cent two years earlier. Because of favorable prices for wheat, a large acreage
again may be expected. In 1946, a total of 25.9 million acres was seeded,
which was above the 23.4 million the previous year, and above the 25.6 million-
acre average in 1935-39.

Australia has announced a wheat goal of 15.5 million acres, which is
considerably above the 1935-39 average of 13.1 million acres..

Wheat Prices in 1947 and 1948 are to be
Supported at 90 Percent of Parity

As a result of the proclamation by the President that hostilities were
ended on December 31, the wheat war-emergency program providing price-support
program at 90 percent of parity will be terminated with the 1948 crop. Present
law provides for loans beyond 1948 of 52 to 75 percent of parity.




PU T 1.LT-APRIL 1947
6 -

The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended by the Stabiliza-
tion Act approved October 2, 1942, provided price-support loans to cooperating
farmers at 90 percent of the mid-June parity. The closing date for placing
wheat under loan customarily has been December 31. However, the price sup-
porting effect of these loans usually continues until -prospects for the new
cron dominate the market.

With the large export demand, prices are unlikely to fall to support
levels, except as a result of transportation difficulties. Before postwar
exports raised prices above support levels, prices usually fell below this level
following harvest, but advanced a'-:v.e iT later in the season.

If parity nn June 15, when the'1947 crop-loan rate is determined, should
be the same as the parity of the $2.02 per bushel in mid-Mrch 1947 _/, the
average loan rabe to growers for the 1947 crop at 90 percent would be $1.82.
While this would be considerably above the average loan rate of $1.49 for the
1946 crop, it would be materially below the avera,:- price of $2.44 received -by
growers in mid-March.

Wheat prices in exporting countries in the years ahead will depend on
volume of wheat production and foreign trade. As the critical nature of the
food shortage is eased, export prices will be lower. Surplus producing countries
may attempt to adjust production to world demand within a flexible price range.

As an exporting country, the U. S. has a strong interest in a large volume
of international trade in wheat. In order to maintain a large international
trade in wheat, it will be necessary (1) for war-devastated countries to get
back on their economic feet so that their exports will be sufficient to allow
them to import wheat, and (2) for more backward countries to build up produc-
tion and increase their exports so that -they can buy from the U. S..

Exports Will be Large Th~ro-,uil. 1947-48

exports have ruled wheat markets since late 1o44. Moreover, there has
been a demand for more whert than was available for export in surplus prcduicing
countries. E.-:orts have been made to r number of paying countries, and also have
gone to UNTJRA countries and to occupied areas.

The active period of UNTJRA operations will end May 31. From its forma-
tion in 1ii3, this organization was supported by voluntary donations frcm
member nations. Although UNPRA is ending its activities, the problem of
supplying minimum requirements to deficit nations still exists.

1 Parity is determined by multiplying the base price of 88.4 cents per bushel
(average of 60 months from Aug. 1909 to July 1914) by the index of prices paid,
interest, and t-xes (1910-14 = 100), which in Mardh 1947 was 229 percent.






S On February 28, President Truman asked Congress to provide money to con-
tinue food shipments to the countries aided by UNERA as well as for War Depart-
ment shipment to occupied areas. He also asked for extension of authority to
continue participation by this country in international food allocations, by which
the exports are apportioned according to the urgency of need. If the U. S. de-
cides to supply at least the miniuura requirements of some of the conntrioc, served
by UNRRA as well as occupied areas, our exports will, of course, remain quite hign..

Wheat imports by the paying countries will continue large f6r another year.
Many will continue to use part of their dwindl.ng and limited foreign excha7ngo to
buy substantial quantities of wheat and flour. In spite of these exchange diffi-
culties, however, exports in 1947-48 are likely to be Iarge.

After 1947-48 exports will probably decline from the current high levels,
as agricultural production in 7.i'r.[.,-r, contri~c; is restored. Limited finances
in many countries will require them to stop spending money on food imports as
soon as possible and use their foreign exchange for equipment and raw materials
necessary to rebuild their industries. Financing of imports will *be increasingly
difficult until their exports begin to recover.

The outlook for exports to the Oriont is still somewhat con-fused by sov-.
eral factors. Among these are the problems of foreign exchange, especially in
China, and an expected expansion in rice production. On the other hand. the pop-
ulation of the Orient has increased considerably in the- past decade. InIia's
larger population and the new emphasis in that country on raising levels of food
consumption indicate that a sizeable deficit wJli undoubtedly continue, at least
until production of rice in Burma recovers.

Financial aid to needy countries, permitting the purchase of food, will
help wheat exports. Loans by the Export-ImPort Barn and the IntLrnstional Bank
are made primarily for the purchase of services and nonufarm goods. Cut, some
aid to agricultural trade would arise indirectly if these loans released other
funds.

Not only will the very high level of international trade in aricultural
commodities eventually be reduced, but also the share supplied by the IU will
be considerably smaller. Since the end of the war, exports of wheat and flour
from the United States have been very iarge in relation to exports froi '.he three
other principal exporting countries--Canada, Argentina, and Australia. This has
resulted from record crops in the United States and below average production in
Agrentina and Australia.


ws- -99


- 7 -




FEBRUARY-APRIL 1947


Conference Opened March 18 to Discuss
International Wheat Agreement

The International-Wheat Council on February 18 published a draft of a
memorandum which is the basis for discussion of a proposed international wheat
agreement. Discussions started on March 18 in London. The memorandum is not an
agreement and does not bind any government. United States participation in any
agreement which may be reached at London will be subject to Congressional action.

The widespread interest in these discussions is evidenced by the fact that
41 countries are represented. These are-: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chin,- Columbia, Cuba. Czechoslovak Republic, Dermark,
Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, France, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India,
Iran, Ireland, Italy, Lebannu, Luxemburg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Peru, Poland, Portugal, Rumanian Government Mission, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria,
Turkey, United Kingdom, Uruguay, United States, and Yugoslavia.

The memorandum being considered in London is aimed at the following: (1)
stable world wheat prices, fair both to consumers and producers: (2) adequate wheat
supplies for world consumption at all times: (3) avoidance of burdensome wheat sur-
pluses; and (4) promotion of increased wheat consunption.

THE DOMESTIC .i_.-T SITUATION IN 1946-47

BACKGROUND.- In 1932-41 the supply of wheat in continental United
States averaged 982 million bushels consisting of carry-over old
wheat 235, production 738, and imports for domestic ure was 9. The
total disappearance averaged 721, consisting of food 475, feed
122, seed 81, and exports and shipments 43.

Wheat prices have advanced since 1940. Until 1943-44 the
loan program was the most important factor in licestic wheat
prices but beginning in that year the extra demand for wheat
resulting from the war became the important price factor.

Wheat Prices Sharply Higher; Demand
is Expected to Continue :'.,'-:ng

Wheat prices advanced rapidly from Late January to March 18, but after a
sharp decline stayed substantially above January levels. Before the advance,
the trade had made large sales, apparently in the belief that prices would de-
cline.After prices advanced,traders who hadsold short had difficulty in meeting
their commitments.

Market supplies are generally small, especially in the southwest winter
wheat area where purchases for export have been heavy. As a result, prices in
this area are high enough to bring wheat from the i.:"t:--rn: P'lains spring wheat
area and from the Pacific Northwest.


08





-9-


Announcement was made on February 25 that practically all of the wheat,
as grain, had been purchased to meet the enlarged export goals. 2/ This incliu-
ed some "to arrive" purchases. Some purchases of flour for export are still
to be made. These will require flour millers to purchase additional quantities
of wheat to maintain their wh-eat inventaries and assure-uninterrupted operation.
Most of the wheat and part of the flour for this year's export program again have
been handled thrci, i government purchase. However, large volumes of flour for
export as well as other grains, are being handled through commercial trade chan-
nels.

As a result of the coordinated effort of government agencies, railroads
and shipping lines, the wheat and flour transportation situation especially for
movement into export has improved greatly. A substantial number of elevators,
however, especially in the spring wheat States, are still blocked for lack of
cars. Movement to market also has been affected by the tendency to hold for
higher prices on a strong market.

Since the carry-over of old wheat probably will be about the same as last
year, prices are expected to remain at high levels until the movement of the new
winter crop becomes general. : '.pary price advances may be associated with
buying following announcements of export quo-ias, and also with reactions to re-
ports relative to any unfavorable new crop developments.

The usual seasonal decline in prices willbe moderated, even when the new crop
is being marketed. There are several reasons for this. Deficit countries will be
anxious to secure needed supplies as soon as possible. Also, the Commodity Credit
Corporation plans to export now crop wheat .-.. early harvests in the Southwest.
Moreover, mills will be -.-.i- buyers to satisfy not only their flour export orders,
but also to take care of backlogs for the domestic market.

Huge ~,.-lrts Have Reduced Supplies and
Supported Prices:

The huge export demand is responsible for the generally high prices this
year. However, only in the _t few months has its effect on the carry-over been
widely recognized.

The export program has been- expanded as prospects for the winter crop
continued excellent.. o.:-:. rts of wheat (as wheat and flour) for the year ended
June 30 are expected to be about 360 million bushels. With imports negligible.
net exports are the second largest in our history, exceeded only Ry the 387 million
bushles in 1945-46. ExPports from July 1, 1946 through March 1947 totaled 278
million bushels, which compared with 304 million bushels for the same period a
year earlier.

The reimposition of license restrictions, effective April 1, on exports
to license-free countries (the Americas, the Philippines, the Netherlands East
Indies, and designated countries in West Africa) will practically discontinue such
exports since flour not sent to these countries will be shipped to other countries.


27 The Conmodity Credit Croporation purchased 155 million bushels of wheat in the
July 1 April 4 period. This combined with stocks owned on July 1, 1946 totals
185 million bushels.




FEBRUARY-APEIL 1947


Estimates of domestic disappearance still total about 790 million bushels:
525 for food, 180 for feed, and 87 for seed. With wheat prices high relative to.
corn, the estimate for feed may turn out to be hi-h, a change that may be appar-
ant from the report of April 1 stocks in all positions to be released April 25.
With a total supply of 1,256 million bushels and exports of 360 million bushels,
a carry-over June 30 about the same size as July 1, 1946 4/. Tihe 1932-41 prewar
average was 235 million-bushels. It should be pointed out, however, that the
holdings by the Commodity Credit Corporation last July totaled about 30 million
bushels of wheat as grain of which at least 17 million was old-crop. The Corp-
oration does not expect to have any old-crop wheat next July 1.

THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION IN 1946-47

I.-.,C- TO;rUID On July 1, 1943 stocks in the four principal
exporting countries were at a record high of 1,740 million
bushels. By July 1945, however, they had been reduced to
824 million bushels, and by July 1946, to about 373 million.
Greatly increased disappearance was caused by an accumulated
demand brought on by the war and poor crops in Southern -emis-
phere countries. Stocks on July 1, 1946 were the smallest
since 1938, and about a fifth less than the 1935-39 average
of 458 million bushels,

World Exports Large, but Below 145L-6;
Almost Half Supplied by United States

Estimates of total world import requirements of wheat and flour in 1946-
47 vary, but they all greatly exceed the estimated exports of about 725 million
bushels. Exports will be below the world total of 864 million bushels in 1945-
46, but considerably above the 650 million in 1938-39 and 625 million in 1939-40.

Exports from the United States of 360 million bushels would be almost
half of this year's total. Exports from Canada have been greatly handicapped
by box-car shortages, and may not exceed about 230 million bushels. The total
Canadian exports of wheat and flour from July 1 through February amounted to
only 146 million bush-els, compared with 283 million for the same period a year
earlier.

Exports from Argentina could reach 75 million bushels. The surplus in
Australia is not large and exports may total only about 40 million bushels,
destined for nearby areas. In the world export total of 725 million bushels,
an allowance of about 20 million bushels is made for exporting countries other
than the four principal ones.

he-t Prices in the United States, Canada
and Australia Similar; In Argentina Hi;her

Wheat export prices in the United States, Canada and Australia are cur-
rently on about the same level. This is ar-parent when freight and '-.ndlin-
costs are computed to a common point such as Liverpool 3/. The similarity
arises from the fact that the Canadian price is adjusted to the United States
price and the Australian price to the Canadian. Prices at any one time are
not exactly related.

3/ Actually, Australian wheat has not been moving to Europe,
4/ July 1 stocks of wheat and flour would present a more favorable picture than
th9t of wheat alone. Flour stocks at ports on next July 1 are expected to be
fairly large.


- 10 -




WS-99 11 -

On April 3 wheat prices in the various countries were as follows: ieT. 2
Hard Winter, ordinary protein, at Kansas City $2.55-1/2; Canadian No, 3, to
countries other than the United Kingdom, basis in store at Fort William or Port
Arthur, $2.70;and Australian Western, f.ob,, ship $2.59. j/ The price being
charged by the Ar.entina, g-overnment for exports is much 4bove the rrice level in
the other three principal exporting countries. Prices have varied ccordi-n to
separate negotiations, but the highest reported in March, ,s paic biy Switzerland,
amounted to $3C55 f.o.b, Suenos Aires.-

Wheat prices are the highest on record, except for a short period in
1917 and a short period followin- World War I, because of a.n abnorr.ally 1vrc-
world trade in wheat. Prices to deficit countries usuallyr re :.c uch le-er.
Present prices of wheat, if continued, will encoura.eo greater domestic produc-
tion in importing countries and reduce their demand for imported ,h-Iat in the
years to come. It is significant to note that the price of whe-t imported from
the surplus producing- areas is higher than the "subsidized" price of domestic
wheat in most European countries. Under such conditions, imrorting countries
are unlikely to reduce protection aids to their domestic producers.

Table 2.- Sprino Wheat: SeederI acre--e by areas, avera-e 13 lo -hi
annual 19 5-'i7

91 47 -9i 7 as
: Average : 15 : .- -oros- :percentrn--e
Area 1936- : 5 pectiva : of
:____ : lantin, 1C45;
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: acres acres acres res acres
Spring wheat other than durum:
Mont.,,ND., SD., and Minn, : 13,725 14,652 15,19- l',7- 97.3
Wash., Oreg., and Idaho ...: 1,6K" 1,583 1 155 1,331 115.2
Colo., Ne'r., and Wyo. .....: 634 276 261 235 00.0
All other States ........... 23 .4 201 2C0 10.0
Total .................: 16,269 16, "1 166,11 16,523 90.3
Durum wheat 1/.,..............: 2,g0C 2,026 2,k93 2,757 110.6

Total all scrin. .......:_ 1,076 l.7l15 _1- 1' !l,20 o1 .9
1/ Fi,-ures for durum represent three States -only--Minnesott, lNorth Dakota, and
South Dakota, Durum production in other Stat-s is unimrort-nt a.nd fi-'ures are
included with "other spring" wheat.



5/ Australian quotation of previous 2 weeks in absence of one for Arril 3,






Table 3.- .Wheat: Supply and distribution in the United States, 1930-46


Year : SDl___ ______ y..__ Distribution __
begin-: Stocks Im s T l Domestic .. r-=arance Exorts
ninS : July 1 N: o : Indus trial includingc
crop J2 supply Food ./ Feed Seed Total
July : crrp : : : _: : e __ shipments 4/


Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu,


: Mil.bu.

S 291.1
S 312.5
S 375.3
: 377.8
S 272,9
145.9
: 140.4
: / 83.2
: 153,1
S 250.0
S 279.7
: 3584.9
: 632.1
621.7
: 316.7
S 280.9
100.1


886.5
541.5
756.3
552,2
526.1
628,2
629.9
873.9
919.9
741.2
813-3
943.1
974.2
841.0
1,072.2
1,108.2
1,155.7


0.1


0.1
15.5
34.6
34.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.5
3.7
1.0
136.0
42.0
2.0


i,i78.0
1,254,0
1,131.6
930.1
814,5
805,7
go4. g
957.7
1,073.3
991.5
1,096.5
1.331.7
1,607.3
1, 998,7
1,430.9
l,391.1l


4g9.6
4S2.
492.4
448.4
459.1
472.6
477.9
474.6
4glo.4
475.4
47.5.
487.8
537,0
543.1
542.5
496.1.


179.7
190.3
143-0
102.6
113.5
100.9
115.1
132.5
156.8
115.1
121.6
116.5

487.
291.6
300.4


80,9
80.0
83.5
77.8
82.6
87' 6
96.6
94,1
75.5
72.9
74.3
62.3
65.0
77.5
80.7
82.1


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1935
.936
1937
1939
194o
1941
1942
1945
1946
1943
1944

1946


750.2
753.1
I/ 718o9
5I 628.S
0,1 655.3
0.1 661.2
0.1 689.7
j/ 701.2
0.1 713.S
0.1 .6653o5
0.1 674.5
1,6 668.2
54.3 951.1l
107,5 1,215.9
82.3 997.1
21.0 899.6
(792.0)


I/ 1930-36, inclusive, some new wheat included: it commercial stocks and merchant mills stocks; beginning
with 1937 only old crop wheat is shown in all stocks positions. The figure for July 1, 1937 including the
new wheat is 102.8 million bushels, which is used as year-end carry-over in the 1936-37 marketing year.
/ Imports include full-duty wheat for milling, wheat "unfit for human consumption" for animaljfeed, and
dutiable flour in terms of wheat. Wheat imported for million, in bond is .excluded.
Included food for both civilian population and the military forces .
5 Includes flour made only from domestic wheat and shipments to U. S. -territories. Peginning with 1940
includes military exports for European relief and exports by the Department of Agriculture.
5/ Less than 50,000 bushels.


--- 1,255.8 (525.0) (180.0) (87.0)


115.3
125.6
34.9
.28.4
13.3
7.1
12.3
103.4
109.5
:48.3.
37.1
31.4
34.5
66.1
153.0
391.4
(363.0)


Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.11.bMil.bu. Mil.bu,





- 15 -


Table 4.-Wbheat: Supply and distribution in Canada, Argentina
and the UT-ited States, average 1929-33 and 1934-38, and
annually 1941-47

SAver- : Aver- : : : '
I : age age .1941-42:1942-43:1943-44:1944-45:1945-4:1946-47
929-33 -1934-38: : ": ._ :
: il. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
: ba. bui bu. bu. .bu. bu. 'bu. bu.


Canada
Ctoc-s Aug. 1/ .....:
Production .......:
Total supplies ...:


149
354
503


121
263
3- 57


48o
315
795


424
557
9'1


595
284
8579


356 258
417 319
773 577


Domestic use .......: 117
Net exports 2/ .....: 222
Stocks July 31 1/ ..: 164
Total distribution: 503

Argentina:
Stocks Jan. 1 ......: 15
Production .........: 228
Total supplies ..,: 243

Domestic use .......: 93
Net exports ........: 137
Stocks Dec. 31 .....: 13
Total distribution: 243


110 149 183
173 222 203
101 424 595
384 795 ~98f


12 117
244 224
256 341

98 103
122 83
36 155
256 371-


155
235
390


175 181
348 334
356 258
-7B9 773


171
336
70
577


193 180 ..80
250 150 144
4~3 330 22


121 3/166
76 97
193 180
390 -43


25
221
246


152 146
98 4/ 53
80 25
330 224


Australia
Stocks Dec. 1 ......: 15
Production .........: 184
Total supplies ...: 199

Domestic use .......: 55
Net exports .......: 124
Stocks Nov. 30 .....: 20
Total distribution: 199


18
154
172


42 104
167 156
209 260


55 60
103 45
14 l104
172 209


69
37
154
260


154
110
264


78
53
131


96 100
90 19
78 12
264 131


12
142
1547


18
117
135


76
60
18
151i -


/ Includes Canadian wheat in U. S.
2/ Customs exports usel for entire period.
3/ Includes use of wheat as fuel and also loss due to grain going out of condition.
_/ Incomplete.


70
421
~W1




"? -APRIL 11947 14 -

Table 5.-iif 7 Exports i/ of wheat. TnIIu-in;7 Flour in Wheat
Equi.valent: from Four Pri.cin~il exporting Countries,
1922-6 .

Year :United: : : :-Total 4: Percent of total
August- :States: anida : Argen-: Aus- : coun- :United: Canada:Argen-: Aus-
__ July __/ : tine ;tralia :: tries :Sta.btes. : tina :tralia
:_ : 2 3 : 5 : 6 ?7 : : 9
:MI1 .bu.Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. PererrcentPeicbntPercentPercent
1932-23.------: 203.0 279 0 139.4 50. :4 71. 30.2.- 41.5 20.8 7.5
1o -2 .---- 130.3 346.1 172.9 85.6 734.9 17.7 47 1 23.5 11.7
1';-? ---- : 59 .3 192.1 125.3 123.6 700.3 37 0. 27.4 17.9 17.7
1i25- 6-------: 106.2 324 .2 97 3 77.2 604 9 17.6. 53 6 16.1 12.7
o1 '2-2.--- ---: 201.7 292 5 144.14 102.7 741.3 27.2 39.4 19.5 13.9
192I -----.-- : 186 8 332.5 178.1 70.7 768.1 24.3 '13.3 23.2 9.2
1922------- 152 9 406.2 222.4 108.6 890.1 17.2. 4.6' 25.0 12.2
1i9,-3'------- 14 5. 184.9 151.0 62.6 544.3 26.8. '34 0 27 7 11.5
193031--------- 116 1 258.4 124.7 152.3 651 5 17.8. -39.7 19.1 23.4
1931-32--------: 114.8 2)6. 140.3 156.3 618.3 18.5 33.5" 22.7 25.3
1932-33--------: 31.3 264.1 132 3 150.2 578.4 5.4. .7 22.9 26.0
103- '------- 29.1 1944.4 147 1 86.1 456 7 6.4 42.6 32.2 18.8
1934--31--------: 2.7 163.1 181.5 10l.1 456.4 .6 35.7 39.8 23.9
1905-36--------- 2/(31.3) 246.5 69.9 102.1 418.5 2/. 58.9 16.7 24.4
1936- 7 ---- ---- :/(15.8) 210.0 162.2 101.7 73. 9 443.3 34.2 21.5
1937-3--------: -112.6 89.4 71 5 125.9 399.4 2s.2 "22'.4 17.9 31.5
1i3,--0-------: 103.1 158.1 122.0 95.6 478.8 21.5 '33.0 25.5 20.0
193'-0..-------: 44 5 192.7 179.1 8 6.4 502.7 8.9 ''38.3 35.6 17.2
lob-hi--------: 31.9 231.2 95.9 75 6 434.6 7.3 53.2 22.1 17.4
1941-42-------- 28.4 .225.8 83.1 40.9 378.2 7.5 '' .7 22.0 10.8
1942-4 ---------. 30.8 214 7 68.4 38.3 352.2 8.1 1.0" 19.4 10.9
lQ3-44 --------:2'/(5.6) 343.8 97 65 .4 507.0 2/' '6.8 19.3 12.9
194 -4 ---.-----: 126.6 342.9 106.4 -5 3 631.2 20.0 54.3 16.9 8.8
1'~--46--------- 403 7 337 5 69.3 41.7 852 2 47.4 39.6 8.1 4.9
-------- ;
1. U.S. includes shipments to U.S. i=_- .tories. Milit-'ry and other wartime exports
not reported 'by Department of Conmerce are included for World.' a II period on a
fiscal yealr basis Commerce figures include Lend Lease. 2/ 'Net im6pts.

Table 6.- Durum :nd other spring wheat: Seeded acreage,
yield -er acre, ancd nrcduction 1941-47 1/. '

:__ Durum 2/ Other. spring
Acre / : Yield T Produc!tion. Acreage .: Yield Production
1,)00 1,000 .1,000 1,000
acres Bushels Bushels acres Bushels Bushels

1941 ......: 2,598 16.0 41,653 14.,063 16.4 230.765-
194 ......: 2,155 20.7 44,660 12,000 19.4 233,066
1943 ......: 2,154 16.5 35.574 15,191 18.0 273,968
19441.......:3/ 2,160 14.8 31,933 17,110 16.4 281,314
1911.. ....: 2,025 16 2 32,840 16,689 15.4 257.550
1945......: 2.493 14.4 35,836 16 811 14.6 245,986
1947 4/...: 2,757 16,523
1' Data 1920-40 in The Wheat Situation, March-April 1943, page 11. 2/ Figures for
durumi represent three Staies only -- Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
Durum production In other States is unimportant and figures are included with "other
spring." 3/ 1939-44 subject to revision on thebasis of the Census of Agriculture
and other Ivail.ble check data. 4/ Prospective plantings.






Table 7.- TWheat: Avera-e closing' price cf TIPy wheat futures,
specified markets and drLtes, 1946 and 1947

:__ Chicagc-o __: City : ; innearolis
Period __: 19 46 : 1947: 1946 : 7__ 1-6 _:
: Cents Cents : Cents Cents : Cents Cents


M'nth:
January ,.:
February .
March
Week ended::
January 4 :
11
18 :
25 :
February 1
:
15:
22
March .1
C:
15:
22
29
April 5:


180.5

183.2

180.5
180.5

180,5
180,5
180.5
lg505

180.5
18C.5
183.5
183.5
1s3.5
---o5


19 .7
215.6
257.6

193.3
194.4
195.5
193.6
196.6
203.1
211,0
223.5
233.0
245.7
2o2.1
260,2

250.5


170 C 6
170.6
170*6
173.3

170.6
170,6
170 6
170.6
170.6
170.6
170.6
17 '. G
170.6
170.6
173,6
173.6

173.6
173.5
1---


188.1
207.8
250.2

106.2
189.2


189.k
196,5

203 8
214.b
223.9
237.2
2)4.6
253.9
2 3. C
21L3.7


172.5
172.5


172.5
172.5
172.5
172.5
172.5
172.5
172.5
172.5
172.5
1;75.5
175.5
lf5.


192.8
212,4
251,7
92o2
192.5
193.3
191.5
1,91.8
200.9

219.3
228.8
24 12
257.,
254.2
256.3
241.7


./ For Esir: of actions by grain exchrnr-es in 1946 see TheSt Situatirn
Sept.-Oct. 1946, p. 18.

Table 8.- Wheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries Friday
nearest midmonth, and Weekly, Jan.-Apr. 19)7
_: : Eard Wheat : : Hard Wheat Sdfft heat
Date :United States : Canada :Urited ta.teo:United Sta.tesAus~tra.l
(Eriday :No. 1 H.D.N. :p. :No. 3 Canadian:NJo. 1 D._-W. : _L.. 1
:13 pct. protein :Io.Spg.at Fort: Galveston IPcrtl,,nd : _/
___ :at Duluth I/ WilliLa 2/ := /1/ ___
Friday mi dimonth: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Jan. 17 .......
Feb. 14 .......:
Mar,14 .......
SWeekly
Jan. 3 c...,,:
10........
24 ........ :
,31 ... ... .
Feb. 7 ........
21 ........ :
28 ........:
Mar. 7 ........:
21 ........
28 ........ "
Apr. 3 ........


221
227
280

218
216
214
220
227
234
244
254
276.5
271.5
259


223
2-39
292

222
221
222
227
235
S246
254
269
279
285
270


223
244,
301

219
222
22
229
233
246
267
281
290
288
275


188.5 219.4
200 227 2
233 235.5

189 219.4
189 219,8
87 219.4
188 219 ,4
192.5' 227.2
202 235.5
209' 235.5
221 235.5
223 259.4
236 259.4
227 ---


1/ F.O.B. spot or to arrive. 2/ Fort Williai quotation is in store. No. 1 Heavy
Dark Northern Spring, 13 percent protein, (Duluth) plus 1/2 cent(for in-store basis
is assumed to be fairly comparable with No. 3 Canadian Northern Spring wheat (Fort
William in store.)




U. S. Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, D. C0,


OFFICIAL BUSTINSS
ws-99-3/47-3800
PERMIT NO. 1001


Penalty for private use to avoid
payment of prostate $300
UNIVERSII OF FL'.RIA

3 1262 08862 6220


UNIVERSITY OF FLA LIBRARY
REFERSNCE DEP7
FNS-X GAIN-ESVILLE FLA'





. ....................... o.. ...... 0 0 .. .......... ..... ... ........ ..
-16 -

Table 9 .- Wheat: Weighted average cash price:.specified markets
and dates, 1946 and 1947

:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 Dk.: o. 2 Hard: No. 2 : Soft
Month :and grades :Hard winter: N. Spring :Amber Durum:Red Winter : White
and :six markets:Kansas City:Minneapolis:Minneapolis :St. Louis :Por-tland 1/
datee --T:: 4 :1947 19T-:6-:i96479 -47 : :1914 17:97 :--947::1 194-7 1- -: 19I
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cento Cents Cents
Months: :


Jan. ......:171.9
Feb. ......:172.3
Mar. ......:174o9
Week
Ended --
Jan. 4 ...:173.2
11., :171.9
18... :17.3
25...:171.1
Feb. 1 .,.:172.4
8 .o.:173,1
15 .,:172.9
22 ..:171o0
Mar, 1 ...:171,9
8 ...:175.1
15 ...:175.8
22 ...:173.9
29 ...:175.2
Apr. 5 ...:176.2
t.'


169.2
169,1
172.0


209.0
226.1
269.4


169.1 204,7
169,1 208.5
169.3 209,9
169.1 208.8
--- 211.0
169.1 217.0
--- 222,5
169.1 229.4
169.1 233.6
172.1 256.2
172.1 275.3
--- 282.1
--- 280.1
--- 261.3


173.6
174.5
176.5


175.4
173 o0
172.9
172.9
174.6
17349.
173.8
171.7
174.9
177.6
176.0
175.3
177.6
177.5


224.8
231.4
271.5


223.7'
229.5
227.5
219.0
223.8
226,3
227.9
233.5
238.7
254.9
275.4
279.5
279.1
263.8


174.8
174.9
177 6


224.3
225.1
249.8


175.0 228.8
174.7 229.3
--- 225.2
--.. 218.1
175.0 2136.9
175 9. 217#.7
174.0 221.8
175.0 224,7
175.0 231.7
178.0 237.1
178.3 251.9
--- 263,1
--- 257.5
178.0 243.6


--- 233.1
--- 239.5
281.1


--- 226,3
--- 237.0
--- 238.7
--- 225.0
--- 225.8
--- 234.5
--- 241.5
--- 241.4
--- 240.2
--- 266.3
--- 278.5
--- 288.0
--- 296.2
--- 291.0


165.0 188.3
164.5 198.5
166.4 229.2


165.0 188.8
165.0 189.3
165~,0 188.4
165.0 18('.4
165.0 187.6
165.0 191,2
165.0 198.7
163.6 202.6
163.6 206.7
166.6-220.3
166.6 230.0
166.6 228.7
166.6 239.7
166.6 230.0


7-Average of daily cash quotations.


217.5
227.9
267.1


214.7
219.7
218.8
214.0
218.0
221.8
224.7
230.4
235.1
250.6
269.8
276.5
277.4
260.1




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