Wheat situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00017

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Wheat outlook & situation


This item is only available as the following downloads:


Full Text









--- SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


WS 101


JULY 1947


DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. WHEAT SUPPLY. 1930-47


BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)

1.500


1.200


900


600


300


1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 194(
YEAR BEGINNINGJULY
'2930-38 INCLUDES SOME NEW WHEAT A INCLUDES FLOUR MILLED FROM DOMESTIC WHEAT ONLY
?PR'EULIJNARI 0 TENTATIVE


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AOniCULTURE


iNZo 4o08l BUREAu OP AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIlG


DISTRIBUTION OF WHEAT USED DOMESTICALLY, 1930-47


BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)


932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
*INCLUDES USE BY MILITARY SERVICES 1946 PRELIMINARY 1947 TENTATIVE


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


Wheit supplies for 1947-48 are estimated at 1,519 million bushels, which is ex-
ceeded only in 1942 and 1943. Because of the large supplies, more wheat can be export-
ed and the carry-over can be increased over July I, 1947 stocks. More also may be used
domestically. While little change is expected in food use, the quantity fed to live-
stock may be up because of the smaller corn crop.


36.1 ;i6/


THE


FOR RELEASE
AUG.5, A. M.


NEG 46030 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS









Table 1 .- Wheat,


principal types Acreage, yield per
1937-47 1/


acre, and production,


All wheat


of


1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

1937
1938
1939
19140
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
19142
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947


1937 ............: 3,214 2,785 429 8.7 27.957
1938 ............: 3.793 3.484 309 10.5 39.715
1939 ............: 3,128 2.965 163 10.4 32,186
1910 ............ 3,371 3,029 342 9.6 32,294
1941 ............: 2,598 2,524 74 15.6 40,658
1942 ............: 2.155 2,109 46 19.1 41,236
1943 ............ 2,136 2,078 58 15.7 33505
19 ............ 2,099 2,057 14.1 29,666
1945 ............: 2,026 .2,004 22 16.2 32.840
1946 ............: 2,493 2,453 4o 14.4 35,836
1947 ............: 2,82 2,772 52 17.0 48,018

I/ Data for earlier year as folleve: 1919-28 in The hat Situation, August 1942, page 11-13; 1929-36 In
2e heat Situation, Kareh-Apnrl 1903, pages 10 and 11. 1939-44 revised on the basie of the Censu of
Agriculture and other available check data.


JULY 1947


Year
harvest


............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............


............
...........
............
............
............
............
............
............
...........
............
............

............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............

............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............
............


A Acreage Tield
Seeded veted Seeded but per needed : Production
er: v net harvested I acre
1.000 acre 1000 acre 1.000 acres 0 are .OO acres 1.000 acres
so80,814 64,169 16,645 10.8 873,914
: 78,981 69,197 9,784 11.6 919,913
: 62,802 52,669 10,133 11.8 741,210
: 61,820 53,273 8.547 13.2 814,646
62,707 55,935 6,772 15.0 941,970
S 53,000 49,773 3,227 18.3 969,381
: 55.984 51,355 4,629 15.1 843,813
: 66,190 59.749 6,441 16.0 1,060,111
S 69,130 65,120 4,010 16.0 1,108,224
: 71,510 67,201 4,309 16.2 1,155,715
77.059 73.907 3,152 18.6 1.45.551
Winter wheat
: 57,845 47,075 10,770 11.9 688,57
S 56,464 49.567 6,897 12.1 685,178
46,154 37,681 8,473 12.3 565,672
143,536 36,095 7,441 13.6 592e809
* 46,045 39,778 6,267 14.6 673,727
38.855 36,020 2,835 18.1 702,159
* 38,515 34.563 3,952 14.0 537,476
S 46,821 41,125 5,696 16.1 751,901
S 50,415 46,989 3,426 16.2 817,834
52,206 48,510 3,696 16.7 U73,893
: 56.941 94. 493 2. 48 19.2 1.092.122
All spring wheat
22,969 17,094 5,875 8.1 185,340
22,517 19,630 2,887 10.4 234.735
16,648 14,988 1,660 10.5. 175.538
18,284 17,178 1,106 12.1 221.837
16,662 16,157 505 16.1 26.243
14,145 13,753 392 18.9 267,222
17,469 16,792 677 17.5 306,337
19,369 18,624 745 15.9 308,210
18,715 18,131 58 15.5 290,390
19.304 18,691 613 14.6 281,822
S 20.118 1q.414 704 17.1 343,429
Spring wheat other than duram
19,755 14,309 5,446 s.o 157,383
18,724 16,146 2,578 10.4 195,020
13,520 12,023 1,497 10.6 143,052
: 14,913 14,149 764 12.7 189,543
14o,64 13.633 431 16.2 227,585
: 11,990 11,6 346 18.8 225,986
15.333 14,714 619 17.8 272,832
17,270 16,567 703 16.1 278,544
16,689 16,127 562 15.4 257,550
16,811 16,238 573 14.6 245,986
S 17.2q* 16.642 652 17.1 295.411
______________________m -P-----------------


:





WS-101


T H E r H E A T .S I T U.A T I 0 I


Approved by, the Outlook and Situation Board July29, 1947

SUI.MARY

Unit-d States 'heat supplies in 1947-48 are now'estimated at 1,519 million
bushels. 'he new crop is estimated at 1,436 million bushels, the largest on record.
Even thour.) July 1 old-crop stocks were only 83 million bushels, total supplies are
exceeded ornl- b:,' the l,i?00 million bushels in 1942 when the carry-in was at a
record hiiJi levei, and in 1943 vwhen imports were large.

Because of -che large supplies for 1947-48, more wheat can be exported and the
carry-over can ;be increased over July 1947 stocks. More also may be used d:.resti-
cally, perhaps as much as 850 million bushels. Thile little change is expected in
food use, the q.uantity. fed to livestock may be up because of the prospective corn
crop.

If supplies and domestic disappearance are as large as now estimated about
670 million bushels of vj-_ia.t vill be left for export in 1947-48 and carry-over next
July 1. Because of' unfavorable crop prospects for most other grains and continued
need for grain abroad, a greater proportion of the grain exports in 1947-48 must
come from vhie'Dt su -lies. As a result wheat exports, including flour, may -.e
450 million bushels or more.. This would leave a carry-over of about 200 million
bushels.

Total vheai: disappearance in 1946-47 was 1,173 million bushels. This I.as
exceeded only in 1943-44 and 1945-46, when use of wheat for feed was very large.
Exports in 194C-47 were about 400 million bushels,'a record. Feed use amounted to
about 190 million bushels, the smallest since 1941, but much above the prewar
average of 2l million bushels. heat processed for food during the year was about
500 million bushels and seed use 87 million. The use of wheat for alcohol -:.as
prohibited.

In sE.ite of the largest v.ieat crop in our history, growers' wheat prices are
currently above the average of :1.92 received in 1946-47 which was the highest price
since 1919. Hih prices reflect very large foreign and domestic demand.

The new' loan program, and a purchase program at loan levels, was announced
June 27. '1T national rate on a farm loan basis averages $1.83. This-is interpreted
as 0,2.03 for lu. 1 HArd ,V7inter at Kansas City, and as $2.08 at Chicago, $2,05 for
No. 1 Heavy Dark Horthern Spring at Minneapolis and '1.98 for No. 1 Soft thite at
Portland.

The price of vAeat at Kansas City declined seasonally from late May and on
July 7 was leas than 10 cents above the loan rate. Prices then advanced. This
reflected increased buying by mills and elevators in the face of limited available
market supplies, and the recognition that a smaller corn crop would mean increased
demand for i.heat. Part of the mill buying was to cover flour exports. The price
at Minneapolis, which is the principal market for springiwheat, has only recently
started its seasonal decline.


- 3 -





JULY 1947 4 -

Wheat prospects in the Northern Hemisphere are for a harvest slightly above. .
average, with prospects best for North umerica and poorest for Europe. The Europeni.n'.
crop, excluding Russia, will again be substantially below the prewar average of.
1,670 million bushels, and may be.as much as 10 percent or more below the 1946
harvest of 1,550 million bushels. Conditions vary widely with poorest prospects
for Western Europe, where the unusually severe winter caused extensive winterkill.
This iTestern European area includes several countries to which the United States
exported substantial quantities of grain during the past year. Based on present
indications, wheat production in Russia will be larger than in 1946, although still .
considerably smaller than prewar. Total production in both Asia and Africa is
expected to be near the 1946 level, with smaller crops in some areas offsetting
larger crops in others.

Vlhilo prospects for large exportable supplies are favorable, especially in
the United States and Canada, present indications are that the foreign demand ,ill
again exceed supplies available for export. WYorld exports in 1946-47 totalled
about 750 million bushels. This was considerably above the 560 millionbushels'-re-
war average, but was far less than importing countries wanted. Of this, over half
was from the United States.

For the first time since the war, substantial exports of grain are possiblee.
for the coming season from Russia and parts of the Danube Basin. Because of
reduced vwheat acreage in the Soviet Union, however, it is to be expected that graan
other than v deat rill comprise a significant part of the total available for expor-'

(For release August 5, a. m. )

THi- DOMilESTIC Y~TEC.T SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Record wheat crops were produced in the U. S. in th'e
past three years. Because of unusually large world demand for bread
grains, however, it was possible to move the domestic surplus and
reduce the carry-over to very low levels.

In 1932-41, the supply of heat in continental United States
averaged 982 million bushels consisting of carry-over old wheat, 235;
production, 738; and imports for domestic use, 9. The total dis-
appearance averaged 721, consisting of food, 475; feed, 122; seed, 81;
and exports and shipments 43.

!Weat prices have advanced since 1940. Until 1943-44, the :
loan program was the most important factor in domestic wheat prices.
Beginning in that year, however, the extra demand for wheat resulting..'
from the war became the important price factor.











.1 .7





VS -101


Larger Exports in 1947-48;
Also L..rr- rCarry-over July 1948

Un ited States ;wheat supplies in 1947-48 are now estimated at 1,519 million
buchels. Th. crop--estimated at 1,436 million bushels--is the largest on record.
Even thoui, July 1 old-Qrop stocks are only 83 million bushels, total supplies are
exceeded only, by the 1,600 million bushels in both 1942 and 1943. In 1942 the
carry-in vwas an all time high of 631 million bushels, and in 1943-44 imports
amounted to 136 million bushels.

A smaller corn crop than last year may result in more wheat being fed to
livestock: a.ri domestic disappearance may reach about 850 million bushelt. On the
basis of' the estimated supplies, about 670 million bushels would be loft for export
in 19-7-43 .anr for carry-over July 1, 1948, 7Tith the reduction in marketable corn
and o*ter :r..ins available for export and the continued need for large scale grain
exports, exports of wheat includingg flour) may be 450 million bushels or more,
compared v.ith about 400 million bushels in 1946-47.- On'this basis, the carry-over
July 1, l?-'1j would total about 200 million bushels. The carry-over in 1932-41
averaged 23.5 million bushels.

The quantity of grain exports in 1947-48 will finally depend largely upon
the size of the corn and other grain crops.

Carry-cv-r July 1, 1947. -
About as S31rll as in 1937

Thi carry-over of old Iheat on July 1 is estimated at 83.4.million bushels.
This is about the same as on July 1, 1957, when stocks, because of drought, were
the s.mailest of any year since 1918. Current stocks compare with 100 million
bushels on July 1, 1946, and the peak. of-631 million on July 1, 1942. Record
exports accounted for the current low stocks, even though the 1946 crop was a record.

Table 2 shows July 1 stocks in the various.positions compared with -similar
stocks. in rocc-nt years. Merchant mill stocks are almost twice as large as a year
earlier. As a result the smaller old wheat carry-over this year did not cause the
concern experienced with the somewhat larger carry-over a year ago, when the quantity;
of W~,eat inr mills and consumption channels was smaller. -

Whca t DisapF:erance in 1946-47. Third Largest;
Exports All Time High

Total ..heat disappearance in 1946-47, at 1,173 million bushels, was exceeded
only by-the 1,282 million in 1943-44 and by the 1,289 million in 1945-46. In
1943-44, 4.3 million were used for feed, 107 million by.industry, and only 66 mil-
lion exported 1/.. In 1945-46, 300 million were used for feed, 21 million by
industry, an. 391 million bushels exported.


I/ Exports include flour in- terms of heat and also shipments of wheat and'flour
to United States territories amounting to- about 4 million bu-shels annually.





JULY 1947


Exports for 1946-47 are estimated at about 395 million bushels 2/,.a record,
While feed use, amounting to about 190 million is above the prewar average of
122 million bushels, it is the smallest since 1941, heat processed in July-December
for domestic use was large but fell off sharply in January-June, and totaled only
about 500 million bushels (partly estimated) for the,year. Seed use-ias 87 million
bushels. Use of wheat for alcohol production was prohibited...

Wheat over Half Total Food Exports

As the situation in many countries abroad continued to get worse in 1946-47,
the export objective for U.. S. wheat was raised from the original figure of 207 mil-.
lion bushels., As indicated above, about 395 million bushels were finally exported.
This made up. over half of the total tonnageiof all foods exported during the year.
Working closely with the. International Emergency Food Council and backed by allo-
cation and export licensing authority the Government was able to direct food exports
to most needy areas, On July 15, President Truman signed legislation extending.the
export controls until February 29.

Even though our exports of heat wore large, total exports from all countries
fell far.short 6f meeting the world demand for wheat.. With no let-up in this
abnormal demand, the need to keep our exports at the highest possible level continues.
As a result the Cabinet Committee on World Food Programs (appointed in September 1946)
and the Coordinator of Emergency Export Programs (office established December 1946)
,have been asked by the President to carry-on again in 1947-48,

Wheat Prices Current
Average above 1946- .

In spite of the largest wheat crop in our history growers' wheat prices are
currently above the average of $1.92 in 1946-47, which was the highest since 1919
when it was '2.16. The high prices reflect very large foreign and domestic demand

Loans on the 1947-crop wheat, based on 90 percent of the June parity of'$2.03
were announced on June 27. The national rate on a farm loan basis averages$1.83.
This is interpreted for No. 1 Hard YWinter at Kansas City and Omaha as K)2.03 and as
$2,08 at Chicago,for,No. 1 Heavy Dark Northern spring at Minneapolis as 2,05, for
No, 1 Red Winter at St. Louis as $2.08, and No. 1 Soft white or Testern at Portland
as $1.98, In addition to the loan program, the Department announced that purchase
agreements will be offered growers through December 31, 1947 for wheat to be
delivered to the CCC during the 60-day period immediately following the maturity date
of 1947 wheat loans, Purchase prices will be the same as the corresponding loan
delivery rates.

The price of wheat at Kansas City declined seasonally from late May, until
July 7 when they were less than 10 cents above the loan rate. Prices then advanced,
reflecting increased buying by mills and elevators in the face of limited available
market supplies and the recognition that a smaller corn crop would mean increased'
demand for wheat. Part of the mill buying was to cover flour exports, By May 29,
however, the price at Kansas City had declined again to within 11 cents of the loans,
The price at.Mvinneapolis, which is the principal market for spring vheat,has only
recently started its seasonal decline,


2/ Exports broken down by countries of destination are shown in table 4.





ws-1io


- 7 -


The price of 11o. 2 -Hard Winter Wheat, ordinary protein, at L:-..':-.z City
averaged S2.77 for the last week in and then declined to $2.10 on July 7.
On July l6 it was $2.29, but by. July 29 it was down a..cin to S2.1L. The price
of '-o. 1 Dark north ern Sprin- at Minnea-olis e avraged S2.76 for the last week
in May and on July 29 it was S2.46.

Prices received by rrowers in mid-July averaged $2.14k per bushel, com-
pared with S2.19 in mid-June and 1.37 in mid-July IQ0c. The July price is
105 percent of the current parity of S2.04.

Yo Wheat Market in Quotas for 194-49

Formal announcement that there will be no wheat mar-ketin.- quotas and
acrea.-e allotments during the 194S-4o wheat production and rmrk etin yer was
made July 14. This action is considered desire ble in view of the world food
situation.

.TH- WO5L -SAT SITUATION

BACGRO`C' D.- On July 1 i, 13, stocks in the four principal export-
ino countries were at a record hi-h of 1,740 million bushels. By
July 1904 however, they had been reduced to S24 million bushels,
and by July 1946, to about 372 million. G-reatly- increased disappear-
ance was caused by an accumulated demand brou-ht on by the war and
poor crops in Southern Hemisphere countries, and elsewhere. Stocks
on July 1, 1L46 were the smallest since 1935, and about 20 percent
less than the 1Q35 -39 average of h58 million bushels. 'he fin'l
total for 19l7 is expected to be about the same as in 9lhC.

Cro-o Fr:,.-s'.= in -:rt-. America Good,
in -ur,:-,- Toor; Im-ort Reauirements Large

Wheat prospects in the ,Torthern Hemisphere are for a harvest slightly
above a.vera.e, with prospects best for 'orth -:,rica and poorest for Europe.
All wheat condition in Canada on June 30 was 125 compared w 2ith 122 in 1'4,t and
100 in 195. Since June 30, rains have been fairly general in Manitoba, but
above normal tem-rp'rat:res and moisture deficiencies have caused considerable
deterioration in Sask.atc.he;wan and Alberta. In lar-:e portions of northwestern
and northcentral.Saskatchewan and in parts of southeastern and east central
Alberta deterioration has reached a stae.e where any substantial recovery cannot
be expected. Wheat acreage in the three Prairie Frovinces is estimated at 23.0
million acres compared with 23.4 million acres in !96 (revised on the basis of
Census figures).

The European croo, excludin" Soviet Russia, arain will be substantially
belot.'the prewar average of 1,o7C million bushels, and may be as much as 10 per-
cent or more below the 19'6 harvest of 1,350 million bushels. Conditions vary
widely, with prospects poorest for Western Europe, where the unusually severe
winter caused extensive winterkill. U'nfavorab-le sprin- weather and shortages of
seed and labor prevented makine- up more than a part of the loss. Floodin- in
parts of Western Euroie, especially in Spain, were also reported to have reduced
prospects. .Althouth quantitative estimates for many of the individual countries
are not yet available, production in this area generally is expected to be sub-
stantially smaller than last year's below-avera-e crops. This Western I-;.njpe.r.
area includes several countries to which the United States exported substantial
quantities of grain during: the past year (table 4).






JULY 1",nT -

1:ot much rhar.--- fro, th 1 .L ot 1 is --ct- is ---:t in C tra~.! Eiuroe,
.'her r=l 1-tiv-lv uni_--:r -- e .. .. i. i .-. ". :r.r." "re )ff" --t b ;-._: ro.e:.ent
i_.r. -rth=r rF---,:. In t'- i -.: .rt'-* i t I'..c rr -., .-:.r red ct '.r. 'C. uttur from
] s+ ;.e:;r is ,I:,e ct ed, 1. r-'-l;- r,-.: c- :",' f rl.. s -"-: : ,.:':,-.-, i,: y:,rtF ,;f


The uitl.CrC-: I:: the Sc' n.in 'i. .-: coLm-i ri-S is defi_-.it--;.'- ls f-'.jrab-le
t -'.r, Tast year, ltr-.--l : re-ull : .:.f .'_ t er inn-: iJ.f Dra,''. '-',i w den.
Ie-norts fnr o.n'.-' ini .at a r.:. ; i i t -;. bel.t r -.-

Unf-.'r:. w--.:her re'.-r..d ; din th f ull 1- -. : cr.a the
Tnit;-d :.ir.-d r. S:.c.-' v, "te-t:-_ll '... r '-.ortej .rAd ;_'x : i- i- sr.i-ir.-s- r"-"n a:nd
fl od'L re-.-; r.t--d .:t-. d.n rir.- n r-- :'.e d i r.r r7_- ct: .
T:_.- fot- .-.-ea s0 ..i vas e.-t'- i..t 'i. :; b.- a'- .ut t.' :re'-.r 'v-el of 1.. zIllion
acr.=2 or o'P-t". 'i l ss t .': 1-

In th S:.'vie : 'ni :''., t:-. cr-r is :.-_: ct d f 1 -- 'r rt. r,- in 1 6i,
t.-.' -, s 'll c::sid r_.:-.'1 ',. 1,;. t.- .rE' -r : -.: ur'.:- t -.-'" r 'r '.t acre-
.-?e f. -l t t- irf. *. f '. "!*,- .'-' 1 -, -.. -,-re r;Ye
aind .: ,h.r c r'or F re :. l : teI. :.-... -: r -.'e...'-: i : .- I i r -c t I'c i: r 'orte d,
but h ,.ilc _: c i.f ti- -I;a r .--* ar ',.v' r ..'t .. -r. ful : .:-. _- re:,'": .

T '-ino in:.to sco.:. t ':e 1:,c :.r re'-.i- -:-ir. ;:.r,,-ct' ii. : ;r as of
Z-.ircyp e 1,*:* s 11 as t1-; fact that tf.c-:: nre at rzr lo0 1 --r- i-.i rt r.ierds
ll -: irn e l r-e. ". .nf -.cr,- e 1 .i ter e?: : -tio-:. i-: r':r: .;rr be
offr-t t :. -:'e e- ert '.-r, b- t.- r-l -- 1. fta"-,r-.' r-a- cts for s-T.rin
cr:.'-? ,of ot.'isx -r-i r.. ::4. ::t4 to -. .1 ., ti- first t '_.. e 'ce ".the 'ar,
tru1.1 .t i-1 -_C oort.. :,a : I r -e c.- '"_- '' f,?r th c, i.a." e fr:r. ? -.. s-a.
:- -.rt .,f tc- D- ri.t'e tsin:. W. it is z'il. to -' -"ri:. t, i, ic-te defin-
it- : .in t iie, 'e t' -r c .lit i:*-.r ce r:.er-11;. ii'-Y b r nuit- f'v: r.': e for the
r-.ir v- r st -a d .:A i = 1-. ..-* sure .-rt .1r. c ernrurnr pali -, o.:.e fair-
:, ?-i -r.i.fic-'Lt ,uri.ti i c-. r, b- '---ie ".,v'--:!' --'l e:,f :',,r -e:-r -''. _,'_ause
'f. th._ rl-:,iuc.-- '-.he-'t -:cr '_-. i, te ..,-' _t Un .. ., ..-'.v r, it rs : e X.oe tr"d
t.[5t -rair. ct rrr tfhan, la~t w illl co'''. rise s i-n.'ific':' t r.. '-rt -.f t,." t 1:l
1.r t

T :'t..l production -i.. ':.rth. -Af'rica ,'- .e r-- t i-, :.t t_ c.m- as t.', 19h6
.harv_--e t oif l. mnilj i b:,. t, ^..._ but co ".. 't ".-: i d" ,iffer'n"t c:- .:tr eE vary
_ idel;.. Best c'-,r'.it- i t -.l 5 -re i' : -c- t-'. f.r Fr-rrc-, i r-a.cc'.:o ere tne crc.: is
report.-d be 'ell ,",--.: t -: 1' 1. h ,--.r .. Z-1 '*- er;, t'-:,- .. c-.,o sE
e'r.z- ct i to r-:-e fr. t f 1" -..:..-:c ,-:l -'-it o" : r u -i .

T'-. tnt-il cr;--: It -^ K-.-: 5- E. r tr:.- 1144. 1-'--'', '*ut prr:.? rcts .:re
not f'.--.-:'rr .- in :r i to r* '. ic" 1 .: ;i fic'.' 1p :.f -. wh-e \~re
shit ..:d ir iI.- tT. I,. : :.- r.i '- .-- ': _:, :-: t i ',-' :I-ve oeen
u if -.:r- -- nd. t ; t '- :, 1 : .. .- 1. r a :.nl-r fi ..: 1: t ;. ear. The
-:-coc d :,ffic>3 e? t i"-.:'.te of ..,:' t i- -.i.] r't-i ..n Ir IC din. T.,..lacCS the'- crroL .t 2l
.ll i: rn '-.ush-l. -- t"-,, l_- -s1 t ..ir-?e 1 -- :-r.d co:.i.'.derrbl.: Ti': 'ies of
or- in ill :.r-., t: iTr: tci -. --.'in t i ;.a To' r i l'is ri-e uited fr.m
unrfa'. r.1'a" e ,-'.'_tr r r.d r'.'t d'-r. --: ;s' c-r. .1;. I", the C-en tr l 1 r.:..ir.co.
Turke;.- 's. cro- iCc :.' s., c :..P i ,L r-ob -.ll -r thj .r, ;.-'e r :-,--3 :'.le- t,'- record
Y'arrest -f 1, 0 I 1.ill i-!. -.us- ; .- -..r:'.: ided s..e ta.r..- us fos .:_,cort .





WS-101


- '1 -


Wh-eat seo-din,7 is nov under w;,- in the So .ithlern Hemisphere and is being accom-
plished under cener7ll;- favorable co-nditions irn the principal producing countries.
About 1" million crnea werle seeded in Australih, a -sublztntial gain over recent
years. eee-din in r..--nt ina is nea,'in- corupletion and is said to have been accom-
plis'l-d urider fav-'r-le conditions

',i]e iprospect3 f1r l'r,^e ex:;lrt''ble supplies are favorable, especially in
the Uniie&_.J St.-Tes and Ci:.nd:-, _prese-t indi,'ti'.ns are that the foreign demand will
sagin e::~ed supplies av'.-ilai e f'-r ::c:-:"rt. Wci'rld exports in 1946-47 totaled about
750 million !i s Thi iiws consider.bl-y -b':e the 560 million-bushel prewar
aver-a- :.'nt Lws far less tihani imr.,.rtinc countries wanted. They were made up
about :- f.] iov: United :St tes ,7;: C_.n:r'd 2."1: Argentina 60; Australia 49; and
other c:o'.n.l ii- l1.

T-hbl- .- Wh.-t: Sto.:ks in t-ie united States on July 1,
1il'-'4l- 7 1.



Stcc ks p ios itin i' 4 -i 2 1- 4 1944 1945 1946 1947
:1,':, 1.0 1.'0 1 QO.:' -1,000' 1,000- -...,000
bti.s'ies bu.i~ 1i s rus.ic.el bushels bushels bushels bushels

Farm .................... *: '6,''T 1.; 2' Ci':'. T 103,622 87,703 41,606 40,427
Interior' ills. -]ev'_-
tors, and waieoi.ses. 7.,7' 12, :,. I.' ..'. 30,332 42,129 8,376 9,797
Terminil.s ('.on3ier-il1) :142.71 ?-4-.44L1 1 1,-11 82,912 67,185 29,917 8,129
I-Tr. ch:rn t mi1 ? i '.ndi mill :
e. .:;-.t,.rs ........... :. .. O. 7 iK.7.: 67,308 58,463 12,838 24,591
Commdc.n i t:~ rc- di: C r r-.,
whe,_-t in tr.r sit -rd in:
et.eel i w...:.d in : --- L4 "4..: 'A .32.381- 23-700 -7T,351 -500
T", .......... : 444
2t1.l .....A ... -. -, '. I' -:..1 316,555 279,180 100,088 83,444

Cc mmrc-.'l st.-.ks temin:l --e i'rp.:.'rd b t'ne Production and Marketing Ad-
ministr: ti.:n. ':'mindit- ':di-t ,",-:'t f in :i,-c- steel and wooden bins and in tran-
sit are re-...rted b,- th. .:.-. it;, 5 'red- r".:-.:.r ion. Stocks in the other three
positioii,: i'.= A tL;aite.d b-,' thK Cro-, F-e.cr' in.; Board.
1/ Table in."l- ds revis:.?-ns in fi-r sa :-- bereinning with 1940. Stocks in 1940,
not shocrT in tac.le, ar-e s fllo'.:': FSnir 7T:.':T; interior mills, elevators and
wareh.ouses :.. .2: t-i'minss ..i'.1i; I; i,-r.!i n': mills and mill elevators 80,650;
total. 2.*',721. .Fiir--r i- t'l t::tl ini.lud.e q -grntities owned by the Government or
still out, t -r-din, inder C-cvernTrent an.

Footnotes ,: ipa -e i, ttl.l:.. 1/ 1 .-.1 ". 1930-41 in The 7'heat Situation,
Febri.': r"-A.-il. 1'-17, r'A:- 1", ,-:i l. .:' L-ss than 50,000 bushels.
F Preli--,L.:.r".






Table 3.-Wheot: Supply, and distribltit.or, Unit6 States 1942-47 1'
-I
__w __
_., *_'__~L t i '. ""
marketingg : :: : Total : E:i-,rt3s : ,,;.,-:.r. i,-." :ri i- arrnce D
:,ars : : : Tofol : dia[:p- : .nd : .-eze : d -
b: : St..cs C': .r-: t? supply 0er-- : s i : t l 'or : Se. : Ind us- : eed 2 '
quarters : : : : : dance : mnties : fo,- t.-r,:l
:Mil. bu. IMil. by. 1"i1. b;. l.l. b1. 1u. 1l. b!. 11l. bi .. ;..i bu. ,1 tI. L. )iil]. b,. TA.il. bu.


1942-43 :
ul.v,-S er. t ...
Oct.-De..... :
J -n. 1 -Is.r. .. .
Ar'r.-June...:
JULY-JU T E..:
1943-44 :






19-44-45
Juil -S3e pt. :
Oct.-Lec ....:
Jan.-M'ir ....
Apr.-Jilne ..:
JULY-JUTIE..:
1944-45 :
July-Sept...:
Oct.-Dec....:
Jan. -Mar... :
Apr.-Juine ...
JULY-JUiE .. :
1945-46 4/'
July-Sept...:
Oct.-Dec....:
Jan. -TAar.... *
Apr.-June.. .:
JULY-JUIE.. :
1946-47 4/:
July-Sept...:
Oct.-Dec...:
Jan. -.Mar....
Apr.-June.,:
'JULY-JUNE..:
1947-48
July-Sept... :
!! .g b; .:--; -


630.8
1 3"2. 4
1,12 .4
890 .0
630.8

618.9
1,114,5
817.6
544.3
613.9



828.3
558,5
316.6


1,020,0
682.0
332.1
279.2

100.1
950.3
642.7
308.6
100.1


969.4

9e.4


843.8 1

4
843.8 13
.543.3 13


2
1


4


1, '.60 .1



1,060.1



1,108.2

1,108.2

1,155.7



1,155.7


(Footnotes on page 9.)


.- 1,152.4
:.' 896.9
1. 1, 1.2

.1 1,431.2
'.1 1,143.6
1.1 358.7
'3.7 591.0
6.0 1,598.7

5.9 1,-402.6
1.4 1,090.6
1.5 829.8
3.2 561.7
2 .0 1,418.7

1.3 1,388.7
0.5 1,020.5
,:.1 602.1
0.1 332.2
2.: 1,3 89.4

3/ 1,255.8
950.3
642.7
308.6
3,' 1,255.8


227.9

2567 .




32 .1 0



1,232.1

323.4
1,.22 1
27it' .4

271.3
282.5
1,139.5

368.7
S38.5
35C.U
232.1
1,289.3

305.5
307.6
334.1
225.2
1,172.4


7.6
5.I
7..7

1- .1
3-1.5

;9.
19.2
19.7
17.0
6 .1

15.
.. *1.
33.6
70,
153.0

95.0
10 7.1
105.4

591.1

79.3
8G.3
117.8
111.1
895.0


22.-.3
214.9
245.7
263.9
247.8

357.9
2 5 6

294.7
256.6
1,216 .0

307.6
22-.7 7
237.7
212.5
986.5

C i 81C 5
273..7
231.4
244.6
148.5
898.2

226.2
220.8
216.3
114.1
777.4


130.4
143 .5
149.2
114.1
53.". 0

134.4
137.4
149.2
122.1
43 .1
54..1

136.5
13.5.2
137.4
136.6
54';. 5

127.83
140.3
135.2
92.8
496.1

124.0
143.0
138.0
95.0
500.0


24 .2

1.4
19.1
'5.0-



1.5
21.3


31.0
2d.9
1.5
20.4
?8'.7

32.1
27.0
1.5
21.4-
82.0

35.1
29.5
4.5
18.4
87.5


3.4
,o 2
16.0
27.7
54.3


23.4
28.3
30 .3
107.5


22.8
31.2

15.6
12.7
82.3

16.4
3.0
1.6

21.0

0
Ci
0
0
0


62.3
44.1
82.1
103.0
291.5

166.8
121.0
117.7
82.4
487,9

108.2
46.8
83.2
42.8
281.0

97.4
61.1
106.3
34.3
299.1

67.1
48.3
73.8
.7
189.9


83.4 1,435.6


1,519.0


. W_-.







Trble 4.- Destinations of United States exports of wheat and flour /
1945-46 and preliminary for 1946-47

S: 1946-47
DestintI:z : 1945-46 :


: wheat and flour:
Mil. bu.


73.2
67.1
11.8
11.0
20.5
80.8
0.2
0.4
41.6
306.6


EUROPE
U.'.R.E .A. o.1.rItr, es 2/
MiL'itarr:,' civ-.ili.: relief /
United Kin.d.:m 4/
lIet]h-r3 v. ,.J-
Es riur.s :i
France arid Fir. ii. Africa
Svitzerland
lic~r'lay
Other Eur.-.pe 5
Total Euro,:E
FAR EAST
UnitFe K;ingdom r -cific
U.U.R.R .A.
Military civilir- relief
India
Ph ilipr.' ine
Total Far E:-t
LATIN ALEFICijAi RPUFLICS
Er izil
Me:.: ic C.
Cuba
OtlIer Latin Am. ,ep.
Totil .-.tin oAm. Rep.
OTI R. Ei:':FOPTS
TOTAL FOE ALL :C;:!TRIES


Wheat Flour Total
Mil. bu. Jil. bu. Mil. bu.


34.8
35.2
23.4


31.1
44.6
7.3


10.9 7.5
6.9 8.6
5.3 6.6
3.7 2.7
3.7 2.0
9.9 8.5
15.8 118.9


65.9
70.8
30.7
18.4
15.5
11.9
6.4
5.7
18.4
252.7


6/ 0.0 7/ 8.4 8.4
12.9 3.2 2.4 5.6
13.5 25.3 10.8 56.1
5.8 18.6 2.3 20.9
5.6 0.0 7.1 7.1
37.8 47.1 31.0 78,.

7.2 1.3 19.6 20.9
12.4 11.4 2.5 13.9
7.9 0.0 8.0 8.0
7.3 2.5 10.2 14.1
34.8 15.2 40.3 56.9
8.0 1.4 5.6 5.6
387.2 197,5 195.8 393.3


/ 'nheat equivalnt; Does not include Canadian wheat milled in bond, for export
as flour nor Chii..~its to U.S. territories. 2/ Total of all shipments toUTRRA
countries inlc,;i Nion-Ui'RRA shipments to these countries. List includes Italy,
Greece, rzech:sl:.a!:ia, Austria, Poland, Hungary and Yugoslovia. 3/ For. 1946-47
includes iI.:. :nA i..X. zones of Germany now combined and U.S. zone in Italy. In-
cludes -nsome. prcu:r d conrrercially and shipped by British to combined zone.. Does not
include qu~t'.:-i : ised by military forces. 4/ Quantities for following are
included it ".:i'.t.r Exports": ?ritish Honduras, Bahamas, Jamaica, Barbados, British
West Afrie'i-i nd 3ritish'East Africa. 5/ Includes French occupied zone of Germany,
Fortual, Fji. !:-i:l, Eire, and Sweden. 6/ For 1945-46 small quantities in "Other
Ex:ports", '_ For 1946-47. includes ? -laya, {-ong Kong, Ceylon and British Borneo.


- 11 -


S -101





JULY-1947


:All classes : No.2 : T57o TTET Io TTEFr a-rdT-o. -:--ot-
Fonth :and grades :Hard winter: Ii. Spring :Anber Durum :Red intcr: "hiite
and :six markets :Kansas City::rM!inneapolis .'inneapolis :St. Louis:Portland I/
date :1946 : 1947 :1946 : 1947: 1946: 1947 :1946 :1947 :194C:19-7:1946 :1947
:C s nts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cnts Ccnts CcntsCcnts CentC
Months:
May :178.5 263.7 --- 269.3 181.2 267.7 178.0 248.6 --- 270.5 175.8 238.4
June :189.8 256.3 186.1 237.3 190.0 271.9 --- 237.6 194.0258.7 181.6 228.0


Week ended
May 2-1
May 31
June 7
June 14


265.6
269.7
259.7
254.7
255.1
257.0
247.7
241.8
240.7
240.4


269.4
--- 275.3
--- 256.1
--- 240.6
186.1 251.8
--- 225.7
205.1 914.8
202. 4~20.9
199.4 251.1
193.2 232.2


195.0

189.0
191.0



217.0
225.3
L5.1
223.8
2,-' 8


269.3
274,8
267.9
263.4
272.2
285.6
285.6
290.0
295,3
300.7


I-!
III
-m-






230.0
---


253.5 --
255.9 ---
241.0 ---
233.9 ---
234.5 ---
239.2 194
235.4 212,
245.6 2]5.
247.0 211.
245.3 203


.0
1c
,4
2
,3
.4


273.0 181.6
--- 181.6
--- 181.6
260.0 181.6
259.0 181.6
)257.2 181.6
--- 182.2
233.9 183.2
237.7 183.1
238.5 183.9


241.0
243.0
240.8
234.0
229.2
208.0
207.8
215.1
217.6
218.6


: V
1 /, Av -e of diy cash quotations. 2T' ?cining Julv 9, 1947 sales of hard and derk
. ar.d win r co .r". ,. h- dr
Table 6.-i/heat: Prices per b',shel in three exnortinr countries, Criday nearest
niinonth, Jsn.-Ju.'ly 1917, and v'.ekly Mla,-Julv 1947

S____ __ D -JE.T __ : :LD hE AT Soft Wheat
Date : United States Canada : Jnited StqtPsUmdted 3tategsXxBta
(Fridafj :T:Iio. I T.C .-:o. C~I C1nadian: b. o. 1 1/
:13 oct. nrotei.n *No. g.. at F.pr& -. aveston I,': ortland ,1/:
d____-at L'lujth 1*": tna- e- : t.- --
Friday midmonth : Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Jan. 17........:
Feb. 14........:
Mar. 14........:
Apr. 18........:
lay 16........:
June 13........:
July 18........:
Week ended
May 23........:
29 ....... .:
June 6.......:
20 ........:
27........ :
July 3........
11 ...... :
25 ........


223
239
292
284
276
251
249

284
294
271
243
243
235
257
254


276
278
273
250
283
295
295
295


223
244
301
284
277
223.5
241

287
./ 253.5
239.5
2,3.5
224.5
224 ,5
24.5
242.5
240


183.5
200
233
237
238
233
216

241
243
242
230
206
208
220.5
217


219.4
227.2
235.5


1/ F.O.B. soot or to arrive. 2, Fort William quotation is in store, Io. 1 Heavy
Dark Northern Sprin,, 13 percent protein, (Duluth) plus 1/2 cent (for in-store basis
is assumed to be fsirlv comnerable ..ith Ho. 3 Canadirn Northern Sprinp wheat (Fort
William in soree) 3/FFor new crown wheat to be delivered first half of June. Old
crop quotation 287.


12 -
Table 5. '.heat: "reighted average cash price: specified markets
and datas, 1946 and 1947


:189.8
:190.3
139.0
:186.9
:138,6
:192.7
:207.1
:207.1
:204.8
:197.0


July
July
July
July




.WS-101 -13-

Table 7.-Wheat: Average closing price of September futures,
specified markets and dates, 1947 1/


-inne- : : Kansas 1 finne-
Period :Chicago Kansas : i Period :Chicago Ka s i
City apolis :: City apolis
:Cents Cents Cents :Cents Cents Cents
i'onth: : Week
May : 221.4 215.1 222.5 :: ended:
June : 215.6 208.5 213.7: June 17 : 222.3 215.7 220.7
V.eek : : 14 :214.0 207.0 211.9
ended: :: 21 :212.5 205.2 210.2
Y'ay 3 : 218.5 212.0 219.4 :: 28 : 213.3 206.3 211.8
10 : 217.8 211.7 219.7 :: July 5 : 216.9 208.6 215.9
17 220.0 213.2 221.4 :: 12 : 226.6 217.5 228,9
24 : 223.4 217.1 224.0 :: 19 :233.8 224.5 234.8
31 :226.8 220,6 226.8 :: 26 : 235.5 226.2 237.9

1 CoToa.rable figures for 1946 are not available as a result of action taken by
the various grain exchanges, following grain ceiling increases May 13, which are
surmmarized as follows:

\ Chicago Boerd of Trade.-Effective May 13, 1946, all transactions in the
then existing futures in wheat, corn, oats, barley and rye (except 1946 MLay rye)
we re prohibited except for rurooses of liquidation, and provided that all such
li:'o-idation should be at or below the old ceiling prices in effect May 11.
Be'-inrning Hay 14, trading began in new, style contracts at prices not higher than
the nr-.e: ceilings. Effective June 3, it was provided that trading in all futures
contr. cs- outstanding as of the close of business on June 1, should continue
for all purposes at prices not to exceed the new ce'linp. As of the close of
business June 13, trading was stopped in all wheat and rye futures, in July and
sentem~-r corn, and July and September barley. Trading was resumed in wheat
Iftures? n August 26, but has not yet been started in rye futures,

Minneapolis Chamber of Commerce.-New ceiling increases were out into
effect on all grain futures, effective Yay 13, At that time wheat and oats
futures were the only contracts open. Effective June 14, trading in wheat
fut-.ires vas suspended except for liquidation only. Trading in oats was not
restricted. On July 31, trading in wheat futures was resumed without the
res-ri-tion of trading for liquidation only

Kansas City Board of Trade,-Effective May 13, trading in all grain
futures was prohibited except for liquidation of contracts existing as of the
clos- of business on May 11, with settlement at old ceiling prices prevailing
prior to May 13, The only contracts ooen at that time were in wheat and corn.
On !,2y 20, trading was inaugurated in near style futures at the new increased
ceilin-. levels. On June 5, trading in all wheat and corn futures was restricted
to lil. idation only with settlement of all outstanding contracts at the new
incre:-.-::d oiling levels. Trading in wheat and corn futures was suspended
on Jun, 13. Effective August 5, trading in wheat futures was resumed, and
effect. e A^ugust 21, trading in corn futures was resumed,




U. S. Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, D. C.


OFFICIAL 3USTINESS

BAE-YJS -101-8/47- h100
PERMIT !'O. ICOl

U':IVER3ITY OF FLA LIBRARY
REFERENCE DEPT
F'iS-X GAINESVILLE FLA


Lrji,:E.Rt iT OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08862 6386



9--47


i,


S. .1


Penalty for private use to avoid
payment of postage 300




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID ERKCVGGWZ_U82KT3 INGEST_TIME 2012-10-26T22:13:26Z PACKAGE AA00012162_00017
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES