Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
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federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00015

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BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY ICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 1947


WHEAT: ACREAGE SEEDED, BY REGIONS, UNITED STATES, 1919-47
ACRES
IMILLIONSI I /


SSpring and D'urum 4 \ --



I f [ I -- -
- Soit Red Wn!er 3 .3




- PocI lic N'crt es i 3 -


I *"" -


1920 1925 1930
NUMBEi OF T r4TES i'NCuL'CED SHOW,.' ,", P4,.E:..HISE
U S DEPARTMENT OF kGRICULTI RE


1935


1940


A _f-' -"J. A'., .-, .- -. 4A IC
NEC 1i1'.! _u: AEi a., _r ,I:.MI,-. U L Tulfa L C G 3Ni.Mhir


Wheat acreage increases, averaging about 9 percent, were general for the 1947 crop.
In the soft red winter region the Increase amounted to 15 percent and in the hard red
winter region II percent. In the spring and durum region and the Pacific Northwest the
increases were only 2 and 4 percent.
From 1929 through 1933, acreages were fairly stable and adjustment programs had not
yet come into operation. In 1947 the acreage of hard winter wheat was 35 percent higher
than in 1929-33, while the Pacific Northwest was up only 2 percent. Spring wheat was
unchanged and soft red fell off I percent.


THE


.WS 103


1950


FOR RELEASE
DEC.31, A.M.





SITUATION





SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 1947


- w ,*. .'


-2-


Table 1.-Wheat Acreage seeded, by regions, United States, 1919-47
(Data for figure on cover)


: Hard winter ': Spring wheat : Soft red winter : Pacific Northwest
Year : wheat region 1/ : region 2/ : wheat region 3/ region 4/
: 1,000 acres 1,000 acre 1000 acre 1,000 acres


Average
1929-33


27,636

24,727

22,066
23,830
25,478
23,910
20,177
22,893
23,935
26,537
27,204
27,234

28,327
28,434
27,109
27,078
26,615
28,145
29,931
34,933
35,356
28,028

26,112
27,508
23,280
23,525
28,961
31,863
33,695
37,274


20,416

21,706

19,905
20,426
18,065
17,533
16,006
18,295
18,056
19,487
21,130
20,687

19,959
19,116
20,783
21,535
17,718
20,605
21,806
20,086
20,904
15,929

17,248
16,762
14,737
17,083
19,193
18,616
20,037
20,495


10,568

20,660

17,106
15,481
15,404
15,439
12,414
11,945
11,264
11,681
14,498
10,623

10,609
10,787
10,065
10,755
11,745
12,608
13,042
15,733
13,620
11,392

10,658
10,736
8,339
8,238
9,905
10,353
9,076
10,412


Maryland,


5,202

4,774

4,817
4,288
4,268
3,974
3,958
5,436
4,256
4,612
4,699
5,186

5,361
4,662
4,853
5,946
4,293
4,365
5,117
5,349
4,805
3,941

4,171
4,129
3,502
4,205
4,602
4,793
5,128
5,314


1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939


1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 2/


Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado.
Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana.
New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Delaware,
Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Idaho, Washington, and Oregon.
Preliminary.




a aa-
~rrr------lrl~---------------------
S. THE W HEAT SITUATI ON
,---I--------------------------~-----

Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, December 22, 1947

SUMMAPY

Total 1947-48 wheat supplies are -now estimated at 1,449 million bushels,
Including the carry-over on July 1 of 84 million and the crop now estimated at
|1,365 million.

., -Wheat feeding in July-September turned out much less than expected. Wheat
.prices were high relative to corn prices which discouraged wheat feeding. In
addition, the quality.of the corn orop-has been much better than had been expected.
:In the half year ending Tecember 31 about 260 million bushels of wheat and flour
in terms of wheat will be exported, and possibly 6n million to 75 million fed.
f, as is now estimated for the'1917-48 year, 250 million bushels are fed, 510
:AilLlion used for food, 38 million for seed, and less than a million for industrial
6hgee, about 600 million bushels would't 64 available for export and carry-over.

D United States exports during the remainder of the 1947-.8 year will depend
upon the outlook for the 1948 wheat crop. We could export 10 million bushels
more, or a total of 45C million bushels, and still have a carry-over of about 150
million bushels. With normal weather from now to harvest and a spring wheat acre-
:.age about the size seeded in 1947, another crop of over a billion bushels is
possible.

If h50 million bushels are exported in 1947-84, it will be by far the most
wheat ever exported in one year by a single nation. In the three years ended
i.OOctober 1, 1947, exports totaled almost 1.1 billion bushels. This was more than
i:,as exported in the preceding 16 years.

I: Wheat and flour exports from the United States in 1947-48 are again expected
|..to constitute over.half of the approximately 865 million bushels expected to enter
'.world trade. Compared with the possible 450 million bushels we may export, Canada
;iis expected to export about 203 million, Australia about 90 million, Argentina
aboutt 75, and other countries, including Soviet Ruosia possibly 50 million.

V A 1943 winter wheat crop of about 939 million bushels was forecast as of
december 1, based upon reported condition to that date, an appraisal of soil
isture condition and other factors affecting yields. Normal weather for the
i iainder of the crop season was assumed. If average spring wheat yields are
trained and the acreage is about the same as in 1947, resulting in a 275 million
i1hel spring crop, another 1.1 billion-bushel crop is possible. We have had only
ae billion-bushel crops in our history, four of them in the last four years.
th domestic disappearance at about 800 million bushels, such a crop would leave
but 300 million bushels for export.

IE: Wheat prices remain high because of the large domestic and export demand.
e sharp advance since August was partly due to-persistent dry weather in parts
,-the winter wheat area, which delayed seedings and prevented germination until
late November andDecember rains. If growers sell more freely after the start
the new tax.year,- there may be a tendency for the price advance to be checked.
1 0, the trade may be more willing to release wheat stocks ap the accumulation of
ii8es-for export nears completion. The Commodity Credit Corporation already has
sade enough wheat and flour to take care of its exports well into March and
flour for exports in February.




....TIB B aCMBE 1947 .4-.

The 1947 world wheat crop is currently estimated to be about the same as In
1946 when it was 4 percent less than the 193i-39 average. Record crops In the Unitedi
States and Australia bring the world total near average, despite much-bolow-avorago
crops in s.urore and the Soviet Union. The 1947 rye crop is 4 percent above 1946 but
only 38 percent of the 1935-39 average. World supplies of wheat available for export
are approximately equal to the prcwar average but the need for wheat and other grains
in the importing countries is far greater than prewar.

The acreage seeded to wheat In Europe for 1948 harvest is expected to be
larger than in the past two cars. In Western Europe conditions are reported as
fair to good. Reports from France, Italy, Grooco, and Turkey have been Generally
favorable, as are also reports from Southeastern Europe, particularly for the lower
Danube and for Russia, and also parts of Eastern Europe, including Poland. Ia centmt'
Europe the season has been backward and moisture supplies generally inadequate. The
delay is reported to be particularly serious in Austria and in parts of Germany and
Czechoslovakia.

THE CURRENT DOMESTIC HEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Record wheat crops %are produced in the United States
in each of the last three years. Because of unusually large world
demand for bread grains, however, it was possible to move the sur-
plus over domestic requirements and reduce the carry-over to very
low levels tabless 3 and4 ).

In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in continental United States
averaged 982 million bushels consisting of carry-over old wheat,
235; production, 738; and i:.lports for domestic use, 9. Total
disappearance weragnd 721, consisting of food, 475; feed, 122;
seed, 81; and exports and shipments 43, leaving a carry-over
of 261.

-Wheat prices to growers have advanced from an average
of 68 cents pc- buchel in 1940-41 to .;2.74 in mid-November 1947.
Until 194!-4;L the loan program wva the most important factor
in dome--t-. a.at prices. Beginning in that year, however, the
extra 6o:. :or wheat resulting from the war became the chief
price fa.- oj.,.

About 600 Million : '.r Available
For Export al', 'L: ".x/ ..'cr

Total 1947-43 wheaL supplies are now estimated at 1,449 million bushels. This
reflects the downz.-rd revision in the estimate of the wheet crop, which now is 1,365
million bushels, and includes 84 million bushels carried over July 1. Items of dom-
tic distribution are estimated at 250 million bushels for feed, 510 million for food,
38 million for seed, and loss than a million for industrial use. Thcso items total
nearly 050 million bushels, which would leave about 600 million bushels for export
and carry-over. Later estMintcs will reflect cavings as a result of the grain
conservation program.

The present estimate of wheat feeding is considerably below the August esti-
mate of 325 million bushels. At that time, corn prospects wore poor and wheat prioee
ware favorable for feeding. However, the situation has changed considerably. Whilo
total grain feeding wabrabout as anticipated, wheat feeding in the July-September
quarter 'as lower than had beon expected. Wheat prices werc high relative to corn
prices which discouraged wheat feeding. In addition, the quality of tho corn crop
has been much better than had been expected.






w r, *orn. prices have been advancing relative to wheat prices and this relation-
,ip"tends to encourage feeding. Possibly 60 million to 75 million bushels have
ta fed in July-December. Feeding for the remainder of the marketing year will de-
..upon such factors as the severity of the winter, livestock-feed price relation-
ps, and the rates of livestock marketing. Estimates of the quantity of wheat fed
I need to be re-examined as reports on stocks and other data for each quarter
ome available.

t.ribution as Between Exports and
!rry -over to Depend on Crop Outlook

S In the August outlook report, exports of 400 million bushels of wheat were
oated for 1947-48. Later on, it was clear that 400 million bushels would not be
Sgh to meet the minimum needs of distressed people in other countries and a cam-
lgn was launched to save Wheat so that larger quantities would be available for
art.

SIn answer to the question of how much wheat can or should be exported, Secre-
SAnderson in his statement on the food situation before Senate Committer on
ropriations on November 24 (when the crop was still estimated at 1,407 million
shels), said, "In terms of human need, the-ansver is, of course, as much as possi-
He In terms of figures, it seems to me the answer is somewhere between 400 and
0 million bushels of wheat, depending upon the amount of old wheat we decide we
ad to have on hand next July 1. In my opinion the final decision as to the most
irable balance between stocks and exports should not be made before next spring.
need to know more definitely what our wheat crop prospects are for the coming
ear before reducing stocks to a minimum level."

If out of a total supply available for export and carry-over of about 600
llion bushels we should export 450 million bushels of heatt on the basis of
rrent estimates we would still have 150 million bushels for carry-over next July.
ncarry-over of this size would be considerably below the 1932-41 average of 235
llion bushels, but much above the 84 million bushels on hand last July 1. Stocks
ere permitted to go that low last July only because of the good crop prospects.

In the three years ended last October 1, our wheat and flour experts totaled
fhe.equivalent of almost 1.1 billion bushels, surpassing total exports for the pre-
opeding 16 years. In 1945-46; our exports of wheat and flour were 29i million
bushels, a fourth larger than the previous record in 1920-21. In 1946-47, 400
-ii.on bushels were exported. In ths 19:'-48 year, we will surpass even that high
rk, exporting the most wheat ever exported in one year by a single nation..

at Prices Continue Advance
:ihich Stp. ,ed in 'ugust

Wheat prices remain high because of the large domestic and export demand.
e sharp advance since August was partly due to persistent dry conditions in parts
Kansas; Oklahoma, and Texas which delayed seedings ad .prevented germination
1l,the recent rains. If growers sell more freely after the start of the new tax
r there will be a tendency for the price advance to be checked. Also. the trade
-be more willing to release wheat stocks as the accumulation of supplies for
rt nears completion.




SEFTEMBER-DECEFBER 1947 -6-

Through December 17, Commodity Credit Corporation purchases o'f wheat'and
flour plus its July 1 stocks totaled 275 million bushels; this includes enough
wheat to take care of its exports well into March, and enough flour to take care
of February. Commercial exports scheduled for the first seven months amount to 66
million bushels. In order to export 450 million bushels another 109 million bushels'
must be purchased either by CCC or commercially. If commercial exports continue i
the rest of the year at the current rate, the trade will buy about 50 million of the I
109 million bushels needed. This would leave about 59 million bushels to be pur-
chased by the CCC for export in April-June. Of course, actual buying would exceed
these figures because wheat must be purchased before July 1 for shipment after that
date.

Coarse grains owned by the CCC on July 1 or purchased through December 17 were
34.1 million bushels. Commercial exports accounted for 34.2 million bushels. This
leaves only about 2 million bushels of the estimated 70 million bushels of coarse
grains to be shipped this fiscal year yet to be purchased.

Up to November 30, only 28.6 million bushels of the 1947 crop wheat had been
placed under Government loan. While this is a small quantity, it exceeds the 17.9
million bushels under loan a year earlier.

Another Large United States Crop in 1948 Possible

The acreage seeded to winter wheat for harvest in 1948 totals 58,848,000 acres.
which is about one percent larger than the 58,068,000 acres seeded for the 1947 crop.
If about the same acreage is seeded to spring wheat as the 19.9 million acres this
year, the wheat goal will be exceeded. The national goal, made up of figures
recommended by the State Goals Committee, and announced on October 2, amounted to
75, 095, C100 acres.

Based on the estimated seeded acreage, a 1948 winter wheat crop of about 839
million bushels was forecast as of December 1, based upon reported condition to that
date, an appraisal of soil moisture conditions and other factors affecting yields.
A winter crop of this size would be about 21 percent below the all-time record crop
in 1947, but 28 percent above the 1936-45 average (table 2). If average spring
wheat yields are obtained and the acreage is about the same as in 1947, resulting in
a 275 million-bushel spring crop, another 1.1 billion-bushel crop is possible. We
have had only five billion-bushel crops in our history, four of them in the last four
years. With domestic disappearance of about 800 million bushels (510 for food, 200
for feed, 88 for seed), such a crop would leave about 300 million bushels for export.

Any early season forecast is predicated on average conditions for the remainder
of the season. A combination of unfavorable circumstances, accordingly, could result:
in a winter wheat crop much smaller than indicated, just as favorable conditions
could produce a larger crop.

Concessions Granted on Import Duties

Under the terms of the trade agreements negotiated at Geneva last summer, the-
United States import duty on wheat for human consumption was reduced from 42 cents
to 21 cents per bushel. The import duty on wheat flour was reduced from $1.04 to
52 cents per cwt. United States imports from all countries, however, remain subject
to an annual quota of 800,000 bushels of wheat and 40,000 cwt. of flour. Of these
amounts, the annual quota for Canada is 795,000 bushels of wheat and 38,150 cwt. of
flour.



]:;






inocetsons by other countries affecting United States exports of wheat and
wa flour, include reductions in duties by Cuba on wheat and wheat flour, by
"echoslovakia on prepared cereal products, by France on wheat and semolina, and by
on oh wheat flour and prepared cereal foods. In other cases, including Norway,
oundland, the United Kingdom and China, it was agreed that present low duties or
ee entry privileges would not be changed. In the case of the United Fingdom,
eat was bound on the free list. In the case of China the duty of 15 percent on
eat floir was bound against increase and an understanding was reached that any re-
tion in the duty on wheat (also 15 percent) would have to be accompanied by a
responding reduction in the duty on flour.

T... CT.RRHI1IIT 4ORLD i4FAT SI TrATIOn

SBACKGROUINJD.- On July 1, 1943, stocks in the four principal ex-
porting countries were a record of 1,740 million bushels. By
July 1945, however, they had been reduced to 824 million bushels,
arid ty July 1946, to about 387 million. Greatly increased dis-
appearance was caused by an accumulated demand brought on by the
war and by poor crops in Southern Hemizchere countries and elsewhere.

open Acreage Increased; Fall Rains Beneficial

S It is still too early in the season for quantitative indications of the area
Ieded to winter wheat for harvest in 1948 in Europe. On the basis of information
received to date, however, it is believed reasonable to expect an increase over the
ast two years in total planted acreage, In general, the more favorable conditions
re'reported in areas where early seeding is essential.

The dry weather of the past summer continued through the fall months in many
feas, and delayed fall olowing and seedin: operations. During Iovember, however,
beneficial rains were received and reports from most areas are now more optimistic.
Di western Europe conditions are reported as fair to good, with a substantial in-
rease expected for wheat acreage in France. Reports from Italy, Greece, and
Erkey in the Mediterranean region have been generally favorable with normal fall
weatherr and seeding operations.

Favorable fall moisture conditions and increased acreages are reported for
.southeastern Europe, particularly the lower Danube, and for Russia. Parts of east-
ern Europe, including Poland, also htve reported favorable conditions. In central
6Earope the season has been backward and moisture surolies generally inadequate for
land preparation, and for seeding and germination of fall-sown grain. The delay is
reported to be particularly serious in Austria and in parts of Germany and
.echoslovakia.

7 1 World 'Theat Crop 4 Percent below Prewar:
4Kye Harvest 12 Percent below 1/

The 1947 world breed rain production is now estimated at .7 billion bushels
,wheat and 1.5 billion of rye. The wheat cr-o, currently estimated about at the
I6 .ev.el, is 4 percent less than the 1935-39 average. Record cros in the United
tes and Australia brinp the world total near average, despite much-below average
ips in Furope and the Soviet Union. The 192i7 rye crop is 4 percent above 1946,
only 88 percent of the 1935-39 average. ('World wheat acreage, yield, and pro-
*tion by countries, average 1935-39, and annual 1945-47, is shown in table 9. The
e for.rye.is shown in table 10.) The European bread grain crop is about a third
the 1935-39 .verage.
LS is one of a series of regularly scheduled reports on world agricultural
: by'the Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations.




SEPTEMBER-PECEM3 1- 47:

This places most of that contiment in a serious food position again tht "
year since bread constitutes a large part of the diet and other foods also are
scarce. Such reduction menas that import needs will be greater than during the
past season when production, though low, was estimated to be about 25 percent
larger than the outturn this year.

The wheat crop in North America is now estimated at 1,722 million bushels.
This is smaller than the previous estimate, because of downward revisions in the
estimates for Canada and the United States. The latest official estimate for Canada
is 341 million bushels and that for the United States 1,365 million. Earlier esti-
mates are shown in table 9; revisions will drop the North American total to 1,722
million and the world total to 5,733 million.

Europe's wheat production, now Pstimated at 1,020 million bushels, is 280
million bushels, or 22 percent smaller than in 1966, and 36 percent less than the
1935-39 average. Because of continued deterioration reported in many countries,
the present estimate is about 5 percent smaller than the early-season forecast.
Reductions from earlier forecasts were made for the Danube Basin countries,
Czecr.oslovakia, Spain and Italy.

European rye production apparently was less affected by deterioration caused
by the drought but the crop is less important than wheat in mcst countries. The
present estimate of 520 million bushels is slightly lees than the total in 1946,
but is 32 percent less than the prewar average because of reduced acreage and lower
yields.

In the Soviet Union good wheat yields were reported. Acreage was consider-
ably below prewar however, and production appears to have continued well below the
prewar average through Irager than for recent years. A considerable shift of wheat
acreage to rye occurred during the war, As a result, rye production is believed
to be larger than average depsite bliow average yields. Rye always has been an
important bread grain in the Soviet Union and the 1927 crop is estimated to be
about 60 percent of the world total.

Wheat production in Asia is estimated at 1,490 million bushels, slightly
above average though not up to the high 1946 figure. Acreage was about 6 percent
larger than average. Expanded acreage in Chlna, with slightly above average yields,
gave a total outturn.abcut 4h million bushels larger than in 1946 and 20 percent
above average. Less favorable conditions are reported for most other countries,
especially India, and yields are reported to be below average. Rye production in
Turkey tie only Asiatic country reporting that grain, is slightly above average.

Little information is yet available on the condition of the crops in South
America. In general, favorable growing conditions have been reported in Argentina,
the principal producing country. However a significant reduction in the area seeded
to wheat was reported and the crop is tentatively placed at 175 million bushels.
Rye acreage in Argentina seeded for all purposes is smaller than in 1946 but con-
sideratly larger than the prewar average.

The wheat crop in Africa is still estimated at 130 million bushels, about 7
percent less than in 19E6 and also below average. The decline is attributed to
reduced yields, since acreage was estimated to be slightly above average. Unfavor-
able weather reduced yields in French North Africe, the most important producing
area of that continent, and grain imports will be needed to tide this area over to
the next harvest. In prewar years, this region was on a net export basis. In Egypt.
the crop is expected to re about the same as that of a year ago. Reports from the
Union of South Africe, the only remaining area of importance, indicate that pro- ::
duction prospects are favorable and that the harvest may be sufficient for that
country's needs during the coming year, .
g






n1in Of Soubth Africa, the only remaining areas of importance, indicate that produc-
ktitn prospects are favorableu and that the harvest may be sufficient for that
Sbuntry's needs during the coming year.

S Australia's wheat outturn is expected to be about 250 million bushels, accord-
ng to the latest official estimate. A crop of that size would be a record and
-auld exceed the largest previous crop by about 35 million bushels, The present
!respects contrast with last year's poor crop of 116 million bushels and the prewar
average of 170 million. Unusually favorable growing conditions were reported and
oord yields per acre are expected in most p rts of the country. The wneat acreage
own for grain is placed at 14.5 million acres,wnhch'la the largest acreage reported
ilce 1933. With the country's domestic requirements set at 80 million bushels, a
'i:op as large as predicted would leave a balance of about 170 million bushels for
port and carry-over. Transportation end storage limitations to handling : surplus
., that size, however, will probably hold the export during the marketing year to
imewhat loss than three-fourths of the total available, F3r the year ended July
7, about 50 million bushels were exported.

portablee Wheat Supplies Approximat- Prewar,
'But Import Needs Very Great

World supplies of wheat available for export are slightly above 'the prewar;
Ierage. However, the need for bread grains in thr importing countries is far
greater than prewar. Due to winter kill followed by summer drought, bread grain
toduction in western Europe this year fell more than 5 million long tons below the
i'946 level and aoout 10 million tons below prewar. Consequently, the imports needed
"o maintain last year's relatively low rations in western Europe are substantially
Sbove the amounts received last year, and above the quantities likely to be avail-
.-able from all sources. This situation has resulted in reductions of the bread ration
Xn France, the Netherlands, and other areas.

S Wheat and flour exports from the United States in 1947-48 are again expected
!to constitute over half of tho approximately 865 million bushels estimated will
enter world trade, Compared with.the 450 million bushels which may be exported by
he United States, Canada is expected to export about 200 million, Australia about
9:0 million, Argentina about 75 million, and other countries, including Soviet Russia,
possibly 50 millic.n.

United States exports of wheat and flour, and other grains except rice, in
July-October of this year compared with'the total for last year, by countries of
destination, are shown in table 8.

It is estimated that about 16.4 million tons will be available for export this
ear from sources other than the United States, compared with about 13.5 million last
0ear. Quantities by countries are shown in table 7, A considerable part of the in-
-ase estimated for this year is based on the assumption that the USSR will have a-
St'2 million long tons of grain which could be exported, nnd that some of it will
-"a into areas which we assisted in supplying last year Finland, Poland and
achoslovakia.

sat Prices in Other Exporting Countries

S Canada.- There are two export prices for Canadian wheat, one for the United
,jgdonr whi is based on a four-year contract concluded in the summer of 1946, and
i:other for non-agreement countries A price of $2.00 a bushel has recently been
.esed upon for the 140 million bushels of wheat Britian will buy from Canada in the
-.49 marketing year. The price for the 160 million bushels contracted for in
T47 and 1947-48 had been fixed at 1.55.
;: ....







bushels to be bought by Britain during the marketing year 1949-50"' O.iu.ob
are at the present time buying wheat in Canada at about $3.25 per bishel;,'w
price varying more or less with advances or declines in the United States. All
prices are based on No. 1 Northern Spring Wheat in Store at Fort William/Port'
Farmers in Canada are currently receiving an initial payment of $1.35 per bushel:
with the provision that all deliveries within the five-year period ending July-
1950 will participate equally in any surplus that might accrue as a result of '..
operations of the Canadian Wheat Board during that period.

Australia.- The export price of wheat for JanuarydFebruary delivery is $3
per bushel in bulk and v;.29 saoked, with theifarmer receiving all of the exporti
price except about 44 cents, which is retained by the Government pool for sur .I
purposes as meeting the guaranteed minimum price in lean years.

Argentina.- Here, where grain is handled exclusively by the Government., -
farmer will receive a fixed price of .1,62 per bushel for new crop wheat (which i
now being harvested) delivered before July 31, 1948. The price to farmers for th
old crop was ^1.38 per bushel. While the Argentine Government has not publicized
prices of wheat for export, unofficial reports indicate that the price has been
about "5.00 per bushel.




Table 2.- Vinter and Spring WTheat: Seeded acreage,
yield per acre, and production,
lUited Staues, 1938-48


: -- Win ber Wheat Spring Wheat
S: Seeded : Seeded : :
ar : acreage : Yield : Production : acreage : Yield : Produoti
i1/ : : : ':;
S1,000 1,000 1,000 -1,0o
acres Bushels Bushels acres Bushels Bushels.

1938....: 56,464 12.1 685,178 22,517 10,4 234,73.5:
1939....: 46,154 12.5- 565,672 16,648 10,5 i75 58:
1940....: 43,536 13,6 592,809 18,284 12.1 221,85"
1041....: 46,045 14,6 673,727 16,662 16.1 268,243:i
1942....: 38,855 18.1 702,159 14,145 18.9 267,222.
1943....: 38,515 14.0 537;476 17,469 17.5 306,337.
1944....: 46,821 16.1 751,901 19,369 15.9 308,210
1945....: 50,415 16.2 817,834 18,715 15.5 290,390.:
1946....: 52,195 16.7 870,725 19,341 14.6 282,521
1947./.: 58,068 18.4 1,067,970 19,879 14.9 296,9i96
1948 f 58,648 14.3 838,705

/ Seeded previous fall. .:.
2 Preliminary. -- :



: i. I .. y

).:'.-"'..'ift.




*. W


S Thble 3.- Wheat Supply and distribution in Continental
United States, 1909-47


Stocks
July 1
1/
Mil. bu.


Jew : 3btal : Ibtal : Nt S.tocks
.crop : domestic : domestic :exports :June 30
__ _: supply, :disannearanse: 2/ __ .1/
Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Til. bu. Vil. bu. il. bu.


,1909
1910
L- 1911
1912
.1913
S1914
S1915
1916
S1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
: 1936
1937
S1938.
1939
1940'
1941.
F. 1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947


:*
*
*
*
:*
:*
*
:*
:*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
:*
:*
*
*
*
*
:*
:*
*
:-
*
*
*
:*
* -
*
:*
:*
*:
:*
:*


:


55
110
125
110
125
115
67
225
80
40
85
170
124
96
132
137
108
97
109
113
227
291
313
375
378
273
146
S140
5/ 83
153
250
280
S385
631
619
317
279
100
84


Stocks 1909-22 partly estimated to include same oositions as currently reported.
F Includes flour in terms of wheat and includes shipments to territories of the -
ited States; the.latter has usually been between 2 and 4 million bushels a year.
'i offers from complete figure by 1 due to rounding. 4/ iet imports.
S1909-36, some new wheat included in commercial and merchant mill stocks; 1937
i.datW, only old-crop is shown in all stocks positions.
tAsmling 510 for food, 88 for seed, and 250 for feed.
P~i.7


.Year
beginning
July


684
625
618
730
751
-897
.1,009
635
620
904
952
843
S819
847
759
842
669
832
875
914
824
887
942
S756
552
526
628
630
974
920
741
815
942
S969
.844
'1,060
*1,108
* 1,153
*1,365


739
735
743
840
876
1,012
1,076
860
700
944
1,037
1,013
943
943
891
979
777
929
984
1,027
1,051
1,178
1,255
1,131
930
799
774
770
957
1,073.
991
1,095
1,327
1,600
- 1,463
1,377
1, 387
1,253
- 1,449


538
537
552
568
612
607-
609
596
555
.580
o47
574
579
603
620
613
584
611
677
656
617
750
3/ 754
3/ 718
629
655
3/ 662
2/ 689
701
*714
663
676
668
948
S 1,216
987
898
769
.6/ 848 *


91
73
81
147
149
338
242
134
105
279
220
315
268
2D8
134
258
96
209
194
144
143
115
126
35
28
4/- 2
4/-23
-/-22
103
109
48
34
28
33
*4/-70
111
389
400
.601-


110
125
110
125
115.
S 67
225
i 80
40O
S 85
'170
124 '
96.
.132;
S 137 1
:108
'' .97 '
'109.
113
S 227
S291'
S313-
*375 .
378
273
'146
S140
S103
153
S 250
280
385
631
619
317
'279
100
84


'C
I-I
;i;
i.

t
i


.









Year
begin-
ning
July

1930
1931.
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 6/

Av. 1932-41


Table 4.-Wheat Supply and distribution in continental United States, 1930-47

: S upply D istribution
: Stocks : Total : Domestic disappearance : Exports,
: July 1 : spl : Processed : F : Industrial Total including
uy crop 2/ supply Feed Seed eTotalnt_
J/ ; -' :for food 3/: use shipmentss/
: Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil. Mil bubu. Mu. bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
: 291.1 886,5 0.4 1,178.0 489.6 179.7 80.9 --- 750.2 115.3
S312.5 941.5 2/ 1,254.0 482.8 190.3 80.0 --- 753.1 125.6
: 375.3 756.3 2/ 1,131.6 492.4 143.0 83.5 / 718.9 34.9
: 37".8 552.2 0.1 930.1 448.4 102.6 77.8 / 628.8 28.4
: 272.9 526.1 15.5 814.5 459.1 113.5 82.6 0.1 655.3 13.3
: 145.9 628.2 34.6 808.7 472.6 100.9 87.6 0.1 661.2 7.1
: 140.4 629.9 34.5 804.8 477.9 115.1 96.6 0.1 689.7 12.3
:_/ 83.2 873.9 0.6 957.7 474.6 132.5 94.1 2/ 701.2 103.4
: 153.1 919.9 0.3 1,073.3 481.4 156.8 75.5 0.1 713.8 109.5
: 250.0 741.2 0.3 991.5 475.4 115.1 72.9 0.1 663.5 48.3
: 279.7 814,6 3.5 1,097.8 478.5 123.1 74.3 0.1 676.0 37.1
: 384.7 942.0 3.7 1,330.4 487.8 116.5 62.3 1.6 668.2 31.4
S630.8 969.4 .1.0 1,601.2 537.0 291.5 65.0 54.3 947.8 34.5
: 618.9 843.8 136.0 1,598.7 543.1 487.9 77.5 107.5 1,216.0 66.1
: 316.6 1,0601 42.0 1,418.7 542.5 281.0 80.7 82.3 986.5 153.0
: 279.2 1,108.2 2.0 1,389.4 496.1 299.1 82.0 21.0 898.2 391.1
: 100.1 1,153.0 --- 1,53.1 42.3 189.0 87.5 0 768.8 00.3
: 84.o 1,364.9 --- 1,448.9 510.0 250.0 88.0 0 848.0


235.0 738.0


Av. 1930-46 : 295.0 844.0

1/ 1930-36, inclusive, some new


9.0 982.0

16.0 1,155.0


wheat included in


475.0 122.0

490.0 184.0


81.0 0.0


80.0


commercial stocks and merchant


16.0


678.0


43.0


770.0 101.0


mills stocks; beginning


with 193w


only old crop wheat is shown in all stocks positions. The figure for July 1, 1937, including the new wheat is .
102.8 million bushels,'which is used as year-end carry-over in the 1936-37 marketing year. 2/ Imports cover all
wheat and flour, except wheat imported for milling in bond is'excluded. 3/..Includes food for both civilian pop-
ulation and the military forces. 4/ Includes flour made only from domestic wheat and shipments to U. S. terri-
tories. Beginning with 1940 includes military exports for relief and exports by the Department of Agriculture.
2/ Less than 50,000 bushels. 6/ Preliminary, with estimated distribution, except exports, for year July 1, 1947,
through June 30, 1948. 7/ On basis foregoing estimates, 601 million bushels will be available either for expozl
or carry-over into next year. 8/ Average is 246.0 when not adjusted for old crop wheat only.


.'J". A.




... .. A.F: 4

: i blo 5. 1hcat: Stocks in the United States on October 1,
1942-47 1/

Stocks position 1942 1943 : 1944 : 1945 1946 I 1947
:- 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,006
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels .bushels

........ 632,573 523,394 521,123 517,823 552,715 628,773
terrorr mills, clova- : I
.ors, and warehouscs : 263,466 210,751 193,413 181,410 177,31 197,821
inals commerciall) : 269,290 199,592 199,475 170,305 103,595 175,069
hnt mills and mill
ovators ........... : 151,927 126,255 137,818 128,261 114,463 136,216
odity Credit Corp.,
seat in transit and in :.
tel and wood bins ... 55,096 54, 00 .22,365 22,189 218 999
total ......... :1,372.352 1, l4,492 ",q079,19 1f 19,96.950;,308' 1,91,69
rorcial -stocks at termina4s are reported by the Production and Mcrketing Adminis-
*tion. Commodity Credit wheat in their steel and wooden bins and in transit are
iorted by- the Oommodity Credit Corporation. Stocks in the other three positions
Estimated by the Crop leportinc Board.
2:Tablo includes revisions in fam stocks beginning irlth 1940. Stocks in 1940, not
in table, are as follows: .Farm 365,118, interior mills, elevators and wvre-
gss 192,136, terminals 136,523, merchant mills and mill elevators 133,319, total
;,096 ; total fpr 1941 is 1,162,270. FiCurcs in the table include quantities owned
the Government.or still ouLstandinc under Governm.nt loan.


Table 6. Percontage monthly sales or rvhcat by farmers,
United States, average 1935-44 annual 1934-46

:. : ___Percentagc of total sales during
I season : : : :. : :
g enning :Junc :July : Aug.:Scpt.: Oct.:NIov.:Dcc.:Jan.: Feb.:ilar.:Apr.:Iay :June
Junc __ : _____ ____
.:Por- Per- Per- P- Pr- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Por-
-:: cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent
-oat : -- "---"
Average :
1935-44 : 5.6 23.0 14.8 10.4 7.2 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.6 5.5 4.4 3.1
41934 ......:11.9 30.4 15.3 9.4 5.2 4.2 4.4 2.9 3.5 2.9 4.4 3.5 2.Q
1935 ...; 2.5 19.2 25.3 17.7 9.7 4.5 3.3 3.7 2.5 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.4
936 ......:.5.3 35.4 15.8 3.7 6.8 4.3 59. 3.1 3.4 3.8 2.7 2.9 1.7
937 ......: 9.1 30.2 16.3 10.4 6.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.3 3.9 3.3 2.0
938 ......: 5.3 24.9 17.2 11.6 7.8 4.7 4.7 3.6 3.2 3.7 3.9 5.2 3.7
-_39 ......: 7.6 23.0 13.4 9.0 5.7 4.1 5.2 3.5 6.6 7.9 10.5 2.4 1.1
b0 ......: 5.6 22.0 13.0 8.9 6.1 4.1 3.3 3.8 3.3 6.2 8.8 8.6 5.8
......: 5.0 21.9 14.4 11.4 7.4 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.1 4.0 4.1 3.1
.....: 3.3 14.5 9.0 9.0 7.4 5.2 6.6 7.5 8.1 11.2 9.2 4.9 4.1
.....: 3.9 19 1. 10.3 0.5 5.8 7.2 8.3 10.1 7.9 5.9 5.5 4.7 3.5
S*.....: 7.0 22.4 12.5 9.1 7.9 4.9 4.8 6.4 4.9 5.6 4.9 6.0 3.6
6......: 6.1 22.7 18.4 10.2 8.6 4.8 3.6 0.1 3.2 2.0 1.7 9.3 1.3
i. 6-:l0.1 18.9 13.5 10.2 .6.0 5.8 5.1 10.4 6.6 5.1 2.8 3.2 1.5

1for 1928-33 in The 'heat Situation. December 1941, pace 18.





SEPTECTE-DECE:.ER 1947


Table 7.- Origin of world exports of grain and grain products,
average 193C-34 to 1937-38, annual 1945-47,
and estimated 1947-48


rigin 193-3 1945-46
SPe37en38 Long s Per
L~ngFns Percent Long tons -Percent


United States 1/:
Canada .........:
Australia ......:
Argentina ......:
All others .....:


1,316,800
5,171,500
2,757,990
11,637,200
7,504,400


Total.......: 28,387,800


4.6
18.2
..r 9f.7
41.0
26.5


100.0


11,771,200
10,717,000
1,022,700
3.915,100
1,100,000

28,526,000


1946-47


1947-48


: Long tons Percent LIi, long tons Percent -


United States 1/:
Canada...........:
Australia ......:
Argentina ......:
All others .....:


14,903,000
6,757,300
1,365,800
4,220,500
1,197,000


Total ......: 28,443,600


52,4
23.8
4,8
14.8
4.2

100.0


2/ 13.75
5.65
2,75
5.50
2.50


45.6
18.7
9.1
18.3
8.3


30.15 100.0


I/ Includes small quantities of Canadian wheat milled in bond and ex-
ported as flour from U. S. 'ports as well as U. 3. grain and grain products..
2/ Eased on grain exports of 52: million bushels of U. S. grain, con-
Sisting of 450 million bushel of wheat and flour as wheat, and 70 million
'bushels pf other grains
rf


-Av


41.3
37.5
3.6
13.7
3.9

100.0


- 14 -





jS-103
, IQ


: July 1946


I tem





United Finpdom .....:
India ..............:
IJV Pncific .......:
France ..............:
Bel cium ............:
Nethcrlands ........:
Norway .............:
Finland ............
s edrc n .............:
Switzcrland ........
Portu-al ........... :
Fire (Ireland) ..... :
China ...............
Auc tria ........... :
Czechoslovakia .....:
Yugoslavia .........:
Greece .............:
Italy ..............:
Poland ..............:
So. Rhodesia ......,:
Hungary ............:
Rumania ............:
Egypt ...............
PhiliDpines .........:
Mexico .............. :
Brazil .............:
Cuba ...............:
Bolivia ............:
Uruguay .........:
Peru ................
US-Ilk Germany .......
French Germany .....
US Italy ..........:
US Pacific .........:
Others .............:


June 19747:
Wheat : Other : Tbtal :


and : grains
flour :


322
573
237
332
413
497
155
121
9
164
141
59
150


3
299
936
209

19






38
35
10
l,85
167
115
968
474


131
300
9
271
107
127
8
32

65
60


')Q
128
'5

29
472
76
8
#

56
5
24
17
17



845
81

584
386


grain


953
963
4o0
D 03
520
0c24
163
153
17
229
201
59
15?


8
337
1,30C3
285
8
19
77
56
196
395

237
38
35
10
2,?30
248
115
1,552
,60


July-October
1947


liheat
and
floor


10!.,
1;1
56
2834
132
218
73
59
30
97
53
74
11
2321
3

208
32b
67



13
32
77
50'
76
10

28
1,447
97

63'
253

4,941


Other b: tal
rains : 'rain


60
149

:31
65
34


8
23


1
17


5
3



52
15
3
12
19
9

1

256
17

256
127


164
330
56
365
197
252
73
59
38
120
58
75
11
255
3

213
329
67


52
28
35
89
69
85
10
1
28
1,703
114

895
380


10,618 4,107 14,725


1,213 6,154


Tobtal ............:


15-



Table 7.- U. S. rrain Pxnorts July 1946 thrnuah June 1947 and
July-Octobitr 1947 ,(l,'000 lonn ton. -- rain equivalent)











WHEAT:;


Acreage, yield per acre, and production in specified countries, year. f bhjrest,
average iq95-~q. annual 14q-47 ./


Continent 8 Acreage b/ Yield per acr


and
country
s


Av
19


North America
Canada .......... ..
Mexico .....................a
United States ............
Estimated total */ ......:
Europe:
Albania ................... I
Austria ....................
Belgium ....................
Bulgaria .................. i4/
Czechoslovakia .............
Denmark ....................
ire .......................8
Finland ....................I
Frane ......................:
Germany ..................
Greece ..................... I
Hungary ......... ..........
Italy ......................:
Luxembourg .................
Netherlands ................
Norway .....................
Poland .....................:
Portugal .......'............
Rumania ....................
Spain .......................g/
Sweden .....................
Switzerland .....'.........
United Kingdom ............;
Yugoslavia ....................
Estimated total e/ ......8
U..S.S.. (Europe and Asia) ...: 1
Asia8 .. ., ; .; ..
Iran ...........".......:...
Iraq ................. ..,;
Lebanon ............. ..3 *0
Pal etine .......... ....t
Syria ......................U/
Turkey ........"*........;..;:
China .....................
Manchuria ...............
India ......................
Japan ......... .........
Area ......................
EInllated total a/ ...... 1


7erage
35-39 ;
1,000
acres

25,595
1,244 :
57.g93 i
84,170 s

99 i
633 ;
402 S
5,078s
2,175 a
319 ;
225 a
230 1
12,560 8
4,250 :
2,150 t
4,091 :
12,581 8
47 :
338 s
80
3,260 :
1,227 ;
6,900 3
11,23
74o ;
183 8
1,8843
5.400 8
74,080 &
.04,000 ;
.: 8.
4,191 8
I.794 z.
4/. .
533 3
1.363 t
8.952 .
49,co000
2.896 8
34,492
1,738 ;
__ 2. _


1945
1,000 a
acret 8

23,414 :
1,158 :
65.120
89,740 8

109 :
47c :
455 a
3.102 :
8
216 8
662 :
342
9,400 a
8:
1,640 :
1,816 s
11,550 :
32 :
295
119 8
a
1,528:
i
8,862 "
731
242 2
2,274 8

59,580 8



2,100 8,
18 8

1,8 5h i
9,245
53.0C ".
*; 1,295
35,980 a
1.79 i
** -


1946
1,000
acres 8

24,076 8
1,124 s
67.201
92,4610

135 :
545
375 :
3.768 :
2,250 0
221 :
643 8
385 *
10,600 :
8
1,912 :
2,698
11,700 8
41 :
302
95 -
s
1,500 a

9,.400 :


2,062

67,000 $
73,000


S2,000 :
161:-
340:
1,927 8
-9,246 :
55,000 :

34,568
1.495


1945 1
8


1947 ;
1,000 a
acres a B

23,895 :
1.236 i
73.907 1
99,100 :

130 a
495 8
220
3,688 L)/
2,040o
58
580 8
395 a
9,250 :

2,000 8
3.149 :
11,550 8
20:
225:
86 :

1.545

9.625 sj

235 1
2,162 i
Z
64,460 o
75,000 :
-A .I





9,465 :
56,000 syf

34- I
1.513, ;


rage
35-39 8

ushBels

12.2 :
11.5 :
13.2 ,
:
15.2 8
25.4 8
40.2 :
20.8 :
26.2 ':

3.2
26.5
22.8 S
34.6
14,0o
22.3 s
22.2 i
25.9
43.8 8
29.9 :
22.7
13.1 :
16.2 :
14.0 :
35.6
33.1
33.8 3
18.1 :

11.9 :

*17.2 8
.10.7 ,


14.3 :
15.2 :
15.3 '
12.4 :
10.7 :
28. .
13- !


13.6
11.0
17.0


13.9
19.1
30.8
13.5

47.6
32.3
20.8
19.6

10.2
13.3
11.5
20.7
27.1
26.5

7.6

8.2
29.6
33.9
35.7





-1

6.3
7.5
8.7
16.1
11.2
10.9
19.L


$

$






|


|



|
8












i
:
8
:8














(





8
8
t
8
1
8
8

8
I

:8

8
8
1

8
8
.1

8
8
*


- Z


C7.1.0 4; 11.600 : 111,700 ; 113,100


- i "-


IS


1!


1
1


1

I
1

I





1
r

I


1

1





1



1

1
1
1


a c/ : Production
46 1947 A/ rg 194 1946 1947 d/
... 1951935-39 19
: 1,000 1,000o 1,000 8 1,000
shela B3shel: bushels : bushels bushels : buebels

17.2 14.3 312.399 8 318,512 : 413,725 : 31*0,767
L1.3 : 12.6 : 14.24 : 12,741 3 12.676 : 15,616
17.2 : 19.0 758,629 :1.108.224 1.155.715 :1.406.761
- :1,086.000 :1,440,000 1,583,3000;:1,764.000

16.3 i.5.4 1.507 : 1,516 2,200 : 2,000
18.9 : 19.6 : 16,057 : 9.000 : 10.300 9,700
43.2 : 29.5 : 16,150 14,000 a 16,200 : 6.500
18.0 : :t 64,076 : 41,818 : 67,900 -
23.6 8 57,000 53,000 -
49.4 : 34.5 S 14,h70 8.. 10,aB4 10r916 : 2,000
20.2 : 30.9 : 7,689 : 21.394 1 13,000 : 17.900
20~8 a 20.3 : 6,100 t 7.128 : 8,083 : 8,p00
23.6 : 16.2 s 286,510 3 184000 : 250,000 : 150;000
S : 147,000 : ..
14.9 : o10.3 30,205 : 16,800 : 2,00 2 o0,600
15.3 t 12.7 3 91.210 : 24,177 : 41. 0: 40,600
0.' 17.7 279.000 : 168.0o00 238,000 2n5,000
3J. : 22.5 : 1.215 a 661 : 959 : 450
43.7 : 35.6 8 14.791 a 8,oo 00 13,200 8,000
'9.1 : 27.8 2.391 1 3.152 : 2.760 a 2,390
: 74,000 : : :
11.0 a 8.4 a 16.092 : 11,561 s 16.500 : 13,000
S : 112.000 : : -
14.1 11.4 a/157,986 73.000 : 133.000 : o,0ooo
33.4 : 20.? 26.351 a 21,615 a 25,018 a 15,000
35.4 : 29.8 a 6.050 a 8,194 a 8,500 7,000
15.6 29.1 a 62,361 8,1.237 : 73.435 a 62,832
- : a 97.700 ; -
- :1.588.000 a 985,000 ;1.00,000 91,020,000
L0.7 3 11.7 11240.000 : : 780,000 a 875,000
8 8 8 ., .
/ 72.128 : 77,161 ; 76.426 : 61.178
7.3 18114 : 16,534 ; 14,697 -
16.0 : : / 1,984 : 2.572 \,470
g." I 3,244 : 2.144 a 2,873 -
11.1. : :/ 19,185 13.944 4 21,311 -
19.5 : 13.7 :' 135.690 : 80,443 : 180,000 : 130,000
iL.6' 16.2 :A/750,00C : 854.000 : 859,000 8 905,000
: 36,035 114.451 -
9.6 : 8.7 370.6bo : 393,904 : 333.237 297.920
15.1' 50.133 a 34,756 : 22,597 :
- : 10.240 : : -2 -
: i1.l8.000 :l.'55.000 :1.F48.000 11.490.000


I













South kmericat
Argentl o ..................I
Brazil ...................
Chile .....................:
Perm .....................:
Urug-ua .................. ..:
Estimated total ]/ ......
Africa:
Algeria ....................
aEypt .......................
French Morocco .............
Tunisia ....................:
Union of South Africa ...:
Estimated total a/ .....
OCesaia I
Aortralia ...................:
New Zealand ................
Total .... .............

Estimated world total o/ ..,..a


15,834
442
1,963
285 5
1,210
20,500

4,184
1,464 s
3,254 :
1,915 ;
1,926 :
13,730

13,126
221
13.341

417,000


10. CS

1,803
290

14,790 1

3.450
1,710
2,400
2,000
2,244
13,190 "

11,425
161 :

?I,o1o :C
Oi, .0 :


13,657

1,873:
280 :
659
17,990

3,200
1,646
2,200
1,670
2.300
12.380

12.52
137
12,663

387,190


12,300
:
1,965


17,000

3.700
1,692
3,000
-- a

13,940

14,500 3

14.650

397.250


14.2 :

- 3


14.2
12.?
19.0
11.0
q.1


8.4
31.3
7.1 9
7.8
8.4 s


12.9
12.1:


3.5 : 11.2 7.6
25.4 : 26.0 I 24.8
2.7 : 11.6 : 8.0
3.5 ; 7.5 -
4.2 : 6,4 -


12.5
l-.8


221.769 :
4.652 :
31,562
3.274

2d1,00 :

35.201 :
45,84 :S
23.197
14,965
16.259 :


: 143.000 :


143,556 : t,. 31 175,oco
9,114 .
34,176 33.16- -
3,200 3,0.w : -
7,958 : 6,1 : .
JO ,00 W bO2,002.O : 23 7,iCj
I
12,000 36,000 1 28,000
43,436 42,725 3 42.000
6,500 25,500 : 2",::"
7,000 12,500 : 11,000
9.493 14,.60 ;
88,0C<' 1,0. lu0 c0


9.3 17.2 169.744 142,410 : 116,490 : 250,000
36.5 7,.129 : 5,439 5,000: -
:5i76,l.373 147,? 3- 7 5',0 2:5.CC00

9 5. CO998,00. .1?).0() 5.735,000 5,775,000


C'ffice of Foreign A- at ..:U Inurl '..lions PrePgar :r eeoat lmia on the basis of official attli st :e of toret; n over Lart., i pjrts --f Ua td 5 rates !'reign
service officers, results of office research, or other information. Prewar estimates for countries having changed boundaries have been edju~ted to conform to
present boundaries, except as noted,
j Years shown refer to years of harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. Harvests of Northern Hemisphere countries are combined with those of the Southern Herdshc.- re
which immediately follow; thus, the crop harvested in the Northern Hemisphere in 1947 is combined with estimates for the Southern Hesl;---r.- harvests which will
begin late in 1947 and end early in lAhf.
F/ figures refer to harvested areas as far as possible.
Y ield per acre calculated from acreage and production data shown, except for incomplete periods.
/ Preliminary estimates in Northern Hemisphere countries; for Southern Hemisphere preliminary forecast based largely on acreage and weather conditilas to date,
!e Estimated totals, which in the case of production are rounded to millions, include allowances for any missing data for countries shown and for other producing
countries not shown.
L Estimate not adjusted to take account of inclusion of Southern Dobrdja and is, therefore, not strictly coomarable with estimatessahcn for later years.
F/ ure for 1935 only.
I Average of less than 5 years.
SEstimates for Syria and Lebanon not shown separately during this period.
SEuropean production only.


--


I


I


H


I


J,


'-- -




RYTE Acreage, yield per acre, and production in specified countries, year of harvest
average 1935-39, annual 1945-47 a/
Continent 8 Acreage b/ Y Tield per acre c/ Production
country Iag e 1945 1946 19g47 :/ A 1945 1946 1vr
and r Average a 8 3 8 1 d_/ | Average a ge 19 195 ,1946
country 1935-39 : 1935-39 t 1 195-391946 1947
S1,000 1000 1,000 8 1,000 g 1 I : 1,000 1,000 1000 1,000
3 acres I acres 3 acres : acres 3 Bushels t Bushels : Bushels 3 Bsl bushel s a bushelsls bushels bushels
North Americal : : : : : :
Canada ................... 816 1487 715 1,156 11.3 121 12..3 11.4 9,191 : 5,,88 ; s8,11 s 13.225
United States ............ 3.699 : 1.856 : 1598 8 1.953 12.1 : 12.9 11.7 : 13.0 44.917 : 23.952 : 18.685 25.405
Total .................. 4.515 : 2,343 : 2.313 3 3.109 : : 54,108 : 29,s4o : 27.496 38,630
3 : 1 -

Austria ................... 912 8 550 8 620 : 580 & 23.4 t 16.5 : 19.0 : 19.7 : 21,355 : 9,100 : 11,800 a 11,400
Belgium ............ ....: 369 : 310 ; 285 3 230 : 38.8 Z 29.0 : 36.8 : 37.85 14,319 : 9,000 : 10,50C 3 8,700
Bulgaria ................. o/ 467 : 373 1 500 7 746 :e/ 17.3 : 10.7 A 17.0 e/ 8,084.s 4,000 8,o500o
Czechoslovakia .............. 2.350 2,160 : 2,160 : 2,100 26.0 : 21*3 255 61,000 46,000ooo 55,000 a
Denmark ................ 354 398 343 257 : 28.2 : 30.7 Z 32.9 26.1 9,973 : 12,236 3 11,300 3 6,700
Finland ...................: 500 : 369 366 376 3 24.6 : 19.8 19.7 1 19.9 a 12,300 1 7,300 3 7,200 7,900
France .................... 1,614 a 940 ; 1,150 8 1,170 : 18.6 3 14.7 : 17.0 t 15.1 30,013 : 13,s00 : 19.500 17.700
Germany ...................... 7,035 I : : 29.1 ; : 205,000 3 -
Greece ................... 163 : 109 133 3 155 13.8 s 8.9 14.8 : 11.0 2,244 : 965 3 1,970: 1,700
Hungry .................. 1,585 : 913 : 1,122 s 1,225 1 18.5 I 13.1 114.9 3 13.9 : 29.354: 11,968 : 16,701 17,000
Italy .................... 258 : 240 o 255 3 250 : 22.1 : 13.8 3 17.6 : 18.0 5,700 : 3.300 : 4,500 4,500
Luxembourg ...... ;...... 18 i 12 8 15 : 12 25.7 : 20.7 : 25.7 3 22.9 462 : 248 : 386 3 275
Netherlands ............... 559 : 534 : 556 8 445 35.1 : 20.6 : 32.3 : 29.2 1 19,626 11,000 3 17,948 1 13,000
Norway ................... 13 8 : 7 : 7 : 31.2 22.1 28.6 2.6 a 405: 177 200 200
Poland .................... 13,425 8 21.1 I : 284,000ooo -
Portugal ................. 342 s 567 : 555 3 570 13.1 5 8.5 1 11.0 3 9.6 14,485 t 4,805 A 6,100 5,500
Rumania ..................i 640o 8 8 8 15.6 : 10,000 : : -
Spain .................... L 1.415 8 1.479 1,466 8 1,460 :_/ 13.6 10.0 a 13.7 : 12.3 S/ 19,205 1 14,800 : 20,07o 18,000
Sweden ................... 495 8 416 : 388 : 287 : 30.0 Z 26.1 29.3 a 20.6 : 14,828 a 10,876 : 11,375 : 5,900
Switzerland .............. 38 3 32 : 35 : 37 33.2 3 34.4 34.3 : 26.s 3 1,260 3 1,102 : 1,200 3 990
United Kingdom ...........I 19 : 80 : 55 36 : 20.9 : 29.5 : 28.4 : 27. : 398 : 2,360 1,560 a 1,000
Yugoslavia ............... 633 1.4 : 3 8,500 8 -.
Estimated total g/ ..... 33,210 : 25,340 : 27,000 27,080 : 763,000 : 471,000 525,000 520,000

U.S.S.R. (Europe and Asia) .8 60,800 8 : 70,000 : 71.000 : 14.6 12.3 : 13.0 /885,000 860,000 920,000
Turkey ...................... 939 & 936 : 988 : 1,025 15.2 : 9.5 18.4 : 15.3 : 14,301 8,896 1 18,200 : 15,700
Argentina ..................: 1,078 : 1,407 ; 1,896 : 1,800 : 9.1 8.2 11.5 ; 9.4 9,771 : 11,535 : 21,739 : 17,000
Union of South Africa ...... h 117 a :h/ 6.8 8 : 8 794 : 836 : 1,350 -

Estimated world total gr ... 100,770 : 100,390 : 102,560 8 104,380 : : -- i 81,730,000 :1,363,000 :1,455,000 31,515,000

Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, reports of United States
foreign service officers, results of office research, or other information. Prewar estimates for countries having changed boundaries have been adjusted
to conform to present boundaries, except as noted.
/j Tears shown refer to years of harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. Harvests of Northern Hemisphere countries are combined with those of the Southern
Hemisphere which immediately follow; thus, the crop harvested in the Northern Hemisphere in 1947 is combined with estimates for the Southern Hemisphere
harvests, which will begin late in 1947 and end eaxly in 1948.
g Figures refer to harvested areas as far as possible.
/ field per acre calculated from acreage and production data shown, except for incomplete periods.
/ Preliminary estimates in Northern Hemisphere countries; for Southern Hemisphere, preliminary forecasts based largely on acreage and weather conditions
to date.
ej Estimate not adjusted to take account of inclusion of Southern Dobrndja, and is therefore not strictly comparable with estimates shown for later years.
/ igure for 1935 only.
SkstiLated totals, which in the case of production are rounded to millions, include allowances for any missing data for countries shown and for other
producing countries not shown.
h/ Average of less than 5 rears.




. S-103


- 19 -


Table 9.-Wheat: Average closing prices of May wheat futures,
specified markets and dates, 1946 and 1947

Period Chicago : Kansas City : Minneapolis
: __a 1947__ ~ 94 6-n e '1947
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Mon tr.n
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Week ended
Sept. 6
13
20

Oct. 4
11
18
..25
INov. 1 ,

15
22 :
29
Dec. 6 .
13 :


&18 .7
192.4
191.9

138.3
184.8
187.9
193.2
193.3
196.3
193.3
189.7
190.1
190.5
189.4
194'.0
193.0
.189.6
194.8


266.6
283.0
289.8


259.0
270.4
.6 ,o
263.9
277.6
275.6
285.9
.292.8
282 2.
S 281.1
287.1
292.9
300.7
296.3
298.5


182.5
185.7
185.7

181.7
179.0
S.182.1
186.6
186.4
189,1
.186.5
183.2
1833.5
-1814.5
183.3
188.0
186 .0
183.5
188.5


257.2
273.4
280.6

249.2
260.5
.. .253..6
255.2
268.2
266.1
275.8
283.4
.272.6 "
272 .? -,.
S2777.
283.6
S291.1
286.9
283.1


186.1
191.5
191.2


185.6
181.0
185.2
191.5
191.4
194.2
191.9
189.8.
190.9.
139.6.
..188.4,
193.6
192.4:
S188.1.
194.0.


260.9
275.6
282.4


254.1
263.3
'261.Q
259.2
271.5
269.6
277.3
284.8
274.0
273.8
279.4
234.8
'294.3
290.1
.292.6


Table 10.-Wheat: Weighted average cash price: specified'
markets and dates, 1946 and 1947
:All classes:No. 2 Hard : No. 1 Dk. : No. 2 Eard: No. 2. : Sqft
Month :and grades :Winter'l/ :N. Spring :Amber Durum:Red Winter : White
and :six markets:Kansas City:Minneapolis:':inneaapolls:St. Louis :Por.tland 2/
date : 196: 147 :1'1946 9r947 : 1946:-i :19 194T : 197':' 1946:1947
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Months:

Sept.
Oct.
Nov.


:199.2
:204.8
:214.3
:222.7


247.2
280.1
3 .3
315.4


193.8
196.0
203.9
210.4


Week ended :
Au,'. 30 :201.2 255.6 194.6
Sept.. 6 :201.4 267.9 194.2
13:202.5 279.7 195.2
20:204.3 281.5 196.3
27:210'.3 281.8 200,2
Oct. 4 :212.0'.305.2 200.6
11:212.2 293.5 202.4
18:216.2 313,1 204.8
25:216.1 319.3 204.8
Noj 1 :215.6 313.7 206.7
3 :220.6 309.7 206.7
S 15:220.2 313.2 210.4
22:227.3 317.3 215.5
29:223.3 323.5 211.6
Dec. 6 :210.3 314,6 204.3
13:222.0 313.6 210.3
1 beginning g July 9, 1947 sales


231.8
264.6
295.3
299.9


205.7
209.7
220.3
233.1


271.0
284.0
316.7
323.1


221.2
217.1
222.9
226.2


253.9
273.2
295.5
304.5


203.1
208.2
214.4
225.0


238.4 :
270.4
295.2
302.0
-


182.6 223.3
182..4 245.5
184.9 273.3
189.6 292.0


242.8 205,5 260.4 220.6 261.4 208.4 248.1 182.8 227.8
253.7 206.3 271.9 215.5 265.3 208.3 262.4 182.0 235.0
269.1 207.1 283.5 216.5 272.4 206.7 274.0 182.0 245.7
272.0 210.0 285,2 216.5 273.6 209.3 278.2 182.0 246.5
267.4 216.4 286.9 218.0 270.7 211.0 266.7 183.2 247.7
286,0 218.0 310.3 219.0 292.4 210.5 274;9-183.7 260.7
286.7 216.8 304.6 222.0 289.2 213.3 293;5 184.2 267.2
299.7 222.8 321.2 225,2 298.5 215.0 301.8 184.7 277.2
303.6 225.9 323.5 225.9 306.6 216.5 312.6 185.8 232.5
294,8 223.8 324.3 223.3 297.4 216.5 293,0 187;0 277.5
292.6 234.8 316.8 223.5 296.4 221.0 294.'2-188.1 284.4
299.8 230.6 321.1 220.8 301 8. 817.6 299.4 188.8 293.2
300.0 236.2 327.5 226.6 307.1 228.2 306.9 191.4 295.3
309.0 232.2 330.5 228.0 318.7 229.1'317.5 191.5 297.2
303.6 216.4 319.0 226.7 314.3 229.2 313.2 189.8 287.8
302.6 234.0 318.2 230.4 311.6 229.3 308,9 190.5 290.8
"ofn ail c "y? e Tashh7 quoTffas




U. S. Department of Agriculture Penalty for private use to av at14.;;
Washington 25, D. C. payment of postage $300
urNiERSiT / OF FLORIDA

-.4 -03-1/48-3 0 3 1262 08862 6683







aSS, oI TZL1Z TVL



SEFTCELP-DECCEIBR 1947 A 20 -

Table 11.- Wheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries, Friday
nearest midmonth, Jan.-Dec.'1917, and weekly Sept.-Dec. 1047
MID AD WEAT : H!UD YVEAT : S 0T ".TEAT
; United States : Canada :UnMi SatessjUnited StatesAustralia
Date 110o. 1 M.D.]., Sp. :No. 3 Canadian :11o7 D.H.:. : Ho. 1 :
(Friday) :13 pot. protein:No.'Spg. at Fort:Galveston / t tortland _/ : 1/
:_ at Duluth / : William 2/ :_ _:
Friday midmonth : Cents Cents Cents Cents .Cents

Jan., 17 .......C.. 221* 223 -. 223 188.5 219.4
Feb. 14 ........: 227 239 244 200 227.2
Mar. 14 .........: 280 292 301 233 235.5
Apr. 18 .........o 274 284 284. 237 ---
May 16 ........:. 268 : 276 277 238 ---
June 13 .........: 263 251 223.5 233 ---
July 18 .......... 284 249 241 : 216 .
Aug. 15 ........ 257 254 242.8 222.5 ---
Sept. 12 '.......: 282 288 280.1 245 -
Oct. 17 ........: 320 319 310.2 277
Nov. 14 .......... 321 Z24 310.8 293 ---
Dec. 12 ......... 314 328 315.5 292 ---

Weekly ..
Sept. 5 ........: 275 2,85 274.5 239 ---
19......... 271 280 2C5 237 ---
26 ....... 288 222'' 285.5 250 ---
Ot. 3 ........: 307 307 200.5 258 274.5
10 ........s: 311 13 302.5 270.5
24 ....... : 323 326 307 278 299.7
31 *..,....: 317 317 3. 05 27 '316.0
Nov. 7 o........: 314 320 307 .287 ---
21 ........: 328 4 31 .2 295 ---
28 ........: .36 340 325 301 ---
Dec. 5 ........: 312 322 300 283 ---
19 .......s 3 08 324' 315 292 346.5
1/ F.O.B. spot or to arrive. W_-Fort I illiam quotation is in store. No. 1 Heavy
Dark northern Spring, 13 percent protein, (Duluth) plus 1/2 oent for in-store basis,
is assuited to be fairly comparable with No. 3 Canadian Northern Spring wheat (Fort
Tilliami'n store.). '




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