Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00013

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Succeeded by:
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Full Text




THE


~~~~1


FOR RELEASE
DEC. 6, A. M.



SITUATION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

0P SEPTEMBER NOVEM


1BER 1948


ORIGIN OF WORLD EXPORTS OF GRAIN
AND GRAIN PRODUCTS


1946-47
(ANNUAL)


ALL OTHERS
ARGENTINA 4' 4 3%
149%
AUSTRALIA \
48%


1947-48
(ANNUAL)

ALL OTHERS
10 3%.


ARGENTINA
20 3 ?.
\/

y/',,'.

AUSrRALIA
9 6
CANADA 1674'v


28,248,400
LONG TONS


28,488,800
LONG TONS


34,612,000
LONG TONS


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 1050 OFFICE OF FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL RELATIONS


World exports of grain and grain products, exclusive of rice. for the year ended
June 30, 1948, totaled 34.6 million long tons, nearly all of vhich was for direct human
consumption. This compares with 28.5 million tons exported a -year earlier, the prewar
(1934-38) average of 28.2 million tons, and the all-time record of 40.6 million tons in
1928-29. Approximately 90 percent of the 1947-48 exports were supplied by four countries
--the United States, Canada, Argentina and Australia, The United States alone accounted
for 43.6 percent of the world total, In the 1934-38 period, when the U. 5. had two of
its worst crop years, U. S. exports were only 7.4 percent of the total.


WS-108


1934-38
(AVERAGE)


RUSSIA
4 1- ,

DANUBE
BASIN I







2-


WORLD EXPORTS OF GRAIN AND GRAIN
FOR SPECIFIED PERIODS


PRODUCTS


UNITED STATES
1910 -14 AV -
1925-29 A -
1929-3 AVl -
1934-38 AV -
1945-46---
1946-47 -
1947 48 -
CANADA
/910 14 AV -
1925-29AV --
1929-33 AV -
1934-38 AV- -
1945-46 ----
1946-47- --
1947-48 --
AUSTRALIA
19/0 14 AV -
1925 29V A-
1929-33 AV4
1934-38 AV- -
1945-46 -- --
1946-47- ---
1947-48- --
ARGENTINA
1910 -14 AV -
1925 29 AV -
1929-33 AV -
1934-JBAV.- --
1945-46- --
1946-47- -
1947-48- -
'DANUBE BASIN
1910 14 AV- --
1925-29 AV ---
1929-33A.- --
1934-38 A -
'U.S.S.R.
1910- 14 A.- --
1925-29 AV -
1929-33 AV --
1934- 38 AV -
ALL OTHERS
1910 14 AV --
1925- 29AV -
1929- 33AV. -
1934-38 A --
1945-46---
1946-47- ---
1947-48- -


LONG
0 2 4 6


I I


I -


'tER CENLJA/ .'L E 30 '*1r 9-0' 4, 929-33, 1945-46. ,946 *47, 4D '94?7-4 19J4-38' rEdRENDOIlG JUNE5 O FOR
St4e GRA.'IS 4IL0 f/id BEGI.RING/ JAj I FOR COARSE GRAINS
,9?~5 9: rEva BEGiN'N4VG jA I
WtECIa a4NC rt "COOA, J rS. 4YD BARLE 'DATA FOR 1945-46, 946- 47, 4ND 1947-48 INCLUDE IN ALL OTHERS


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEC 1054 OFFICE OF FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL RELATIONS


United States exports of bread grains in 1947-48 established a new record for a
single country. Corn exports were restricted by the small size of the corn crop.
Argentina is historically the leading corn exporting country, and until recent years
Canada has led in wheat and flour exports. Grain exports from Soviet Russia and the
Danube have been greatly reduced since 1910-14.


TONS (MILLIONS)
8 10 12


14 16


~I
----------------------
~r~mrm

m
~rJ


BREADm COARSE'
GRAINS GRAINS


ALL GRAINS


su


I





.WS-108 3 -


THE WHEAT SITUATION
4 - -
Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, November 22, 1948

SUMMARY

Cash wheat prices on November 22 were 10 cents above the loan
at Kansas City and 15 cents above at Minneapolis. This s a considerable
advance from the low point on August 2 when prices at Kansas City were
about 18 cents below the loan. However, even at the higher price level,
selling by growers has not developed on a broad scale, And, while no
substantial changes in prices are likely, at least until 1949 crop
prospects are better known, prices may further strengthen in the next
few months. Loans through October 30 totaled 192 million bushel. In
addition, there were 24 million bushels under purchase agreements.

The quantity of wheat processed for domestic food use in July-
September was about 124 million bushels, and exports were the equiva-
lent of about 155 million. Estimating 30 million bushes used as seed
prior to October 1 only about 28 million bushels were fed in that quarter.
With the very large corn crop, wheat feeding will continue small in the
remainder of:the marketing year.

In-the United States, wheat disappearance for the 1948-49 year
is now estimated as follows; Food, 500 million bushels; seed, 93 mil-
lion; and feed 110 million. This leaves about 775 million bushels for
exports in 1948-49 or carry-over July 1, 1949. The July-December
export program totals about 290 million bushels. The extent to which
this program actually moves during the period is uncertain, however,
because of current longshoremen strikes on the East and West doasts.
Total exports for the marketing year may be between 450 million and
500 million bushels. With supplies of 1,479 million bushels (July
stocks plus production), this would leave a carry-over of between
275 and 325 million bushels on July 1, 1949 compared with the prewar
average of 235 million.

With no marketing quotas on the 1949 crop and 90 percent support
for another year, seedings of the 19h9 crop are likely to exceed the
77.7 million acres in 1948. In the fall of 1947 plantings were restricted
by unusually dry weather in the Southern Plains at seeding time. The
State Produstion Adjustment Committees estimate that almost 80 million
acres will be seeded for the 1949 crop, which approaches the all-time
high of 1937, and is about 10 percent above the recommended national
goal of 71.5 million acres.

World bread-grain production in 1948 is slightly above the.prewar
average and well above the 1947 crop. Production in Europe is substan-
tially larger than in 1947, as a result of very favorable yields per
acre, but it is still well !lelow prewar levels. Moisture conditions
for fall-sown wheat and rye in Continental Europe are now generally
favorable. In the United Kingdom, weather has been seasonable and
an increase in acreage is planned. In the U.S.S.R. a larger acreage
of winter wheat is being seeded than last year, and plowing for spring-
sown wheat is aead of a year ago.





SEPT. NOV. 1948


Exportable wheat supplies for 1948-49 from all countries are
about the same as the 935 million bushels exported in 19L7-48.
Available supplies in the four principal exporting countries--United
SLates, Canada, Australia, and Argentina--are tentatively estimated
at about 880 million bushels. Other countries, including the Soviet
Union, may possibly export another 50 million bushels, or about the
same as in 1947-48.

United States exports of wheat (as grain or flour in terms of
grain) reached a record total of 480 million bushels in 1947-48. This
is 'he largest quantity exported by this or any country in any single
year in all history and accounted for about half of the total world
Lrade in bread grains.

THE CURRENT DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND: An abnormal world demand for bread
grains made it possible to export the excess over domestic
needs from four successive record wheat crops in the United
States. Furthermore, the carry-over was cut down to very
low levels on July 1, 1946 and 1947 (table 10).

In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in continental
United States averaged 982 n111ion bushels consisting of
carry-over old wheat, 235; production, 738, and imports for
domestic use, 9. Total disappearance averaged 721, consist-
ing of food, 475; feed, 122; seed, 81; and exports and
shipments 43.

Net exports from the United States have exceeded
300 million busheL only in 1911-15, 1920-21, and in the
years beginning vith 1945-46. Very small U. S. wheat
crops in 1.933-36 together with drives toward greater self-
sufficiency in many countries greatly reduced exports in
the 30's and the war curtailed shipping in the early hO's.
In 1921-30 net exports from the United States averaged
177 million bushels. In the 35 years since 1909,leaving
out the years of net imports, net exports averaged
169 million bushels.

Wheat prices to growers advanced from an average
of 69 cents per bushel in 1940-41 to a record high of
$2.81 in mid-January 1948, and a record season average
of $2.29 for the 1947 crop. From 1938 to late 19t4 the
logn program, which reflected the rise in the general
price level, was the most important factor in domestic
wheat prices. From that time until the 1948 harvest, very
heavy exports of wheat and flour were most important to
price.l/ However, domestic use also was large from 1942-43
through 1947-48,


1/ The figure on page 8 and taole on page 14 in Tho Wheat Situation.
issue of May-July 1948 show the price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat
at Kansas City and the annual loan rate beginning with July 1937.


- 4 -





WS-108' 5 -'
\"
In 1947-48, U. S. wheat prices reflected the
unavailability for feed grains for export, the additional
world demand resulting from short crops in importing
Countries, as well as the continued rise in the
general price level. With the harvest of the near-
record crop in 1948 and favorable crops in importing
countries, the loan program again became important
in July of'this year. 2,

Marketinf-Year Exports MYa
Total _450-00 Million Bushels
T.ith 275-325 Million Carry-over

On the basis of disappearance in July-September, estimated
disappearance for the year beginning July 1, 1948 would be: Food,
500 million bushels; seed, 93 million; and feed, 110 million. This
would leave about 775 million bushels for export in 1948-49 and
carry-over July 1, 1949. The July-December export program totals
about 290 million bushels, and the total for the extent to which
this program actually moves during the period is uncertain, however,
because of current longshoremen strikes on the East and West coasts.
STotal exports for the marketing year may be between 450 million and
500-million bushels. Taking these estimates from total supplies of
1,479 million bushels (July 1 stocks plus production) leaves a
carry-over of 275-325 million bushels on July 1, 1949, substantially-
above the prewar 1932-41 average of 235 million bushels. The size of
our exports.would depend largely upon the progress of the 1949 wheat
crop.

Wheat stocks in the United States on October 1 totaled
1,142 million bushels (table 9). Since total supplies at the
beginning of the marketing year totaled l,479 million bushels,
the indicated disappearance for July-September is 337 million
bushels. The quantity processed for domestic food use was about ..
124 million bushels, and exports of wheat and flour were equiva-
lent to about 155 million. Estimating 30 million bushels were
used as seed prior to October i, only about 28 million bushels
were fed in the July-September quarter. This is lighter than
expected. However, there is no direct method of obtaining a
figure for the quantity fed. It is derived as a remainder, after
deducting for food, seed and exports from total disappearance and
can only be an approximation of the quantity fed, as it reflects
inaccuracies of the various items involved. Any-revision in the
December estimate of production as well as any other item will
necessitate a revision in the feed figure for July-September. With
the very large corn crop, it is not expected that wheat feeding will be
heavy in the remainder of the marketing year. However, the January-March
quarter is usually heavier than either of tie other two remaining
quarters.


2/ Loan rates for 1948 with comparisons are shown in The Wheat Situation,
issue of May-July 1948, table 5, page 14.
...
4 A .*


7"M .......







heat Prices Above
Loan Levels

Cash wheat prices on Novemb-r 22 were 10 cents above the loan at
Kansas City and 15 cents above at I'iinneapolis, This is a considerable
advance from the low point on August 2, when prices at Kansas City were
about 18 cents below the loan. However, even at the higher price level,
selling by growers has not developed on a broad scale. And, while no
substantial changes in prices are likely, at least until 1949 crop prospects
are better known, prices may further strcnghthen in the next few months.

CCC wheat loans through October 30 totaled 19.24 million bushel, In
addition, there were 2,3million bushels under purchase agreements 3/.
Grovers have until December 31 to decide whether they want to use these
programs, but currently rising prices probably will reduce the quantity
vwich otherwise might have been placed under loan between October 1 and
December 31. As usual, many farmers will store outside the loan program.

CCC July stocks plus purchases through November 19 totaled 237 mil-
lion bushels, of which 208 million bushels were wheat, and 29 million
flour in terms of itheat. The quantity of Aheat is sufficient to meet the
announced CCC allocations .for most of January. That of wheat in the form
of flour is slightly short of meeting announced allocations through December&
The December flour program is not fully covered because of recent substantial
allocations to China in lieu of heat,

Another Very Large "'heat Crop in Prospect
For 1949; Carry-Over to Increase Arain

''ith the assurance given farmers that there will be 90 percent sup-
port and no marketing quotas in 1949, it is generally expected that the
acreage for the 1949 crop will exceed the 77.7 million acres in 1948. In
the fall of 1947 plantings were restricted by adverse weather in the
Southern Plains at seeding time. The State Production Adjustment Committees
estimate that almost 80 million acres will be seeded for the 1949 crop, which
approaches the all-time high of 1937, and is about 10 percent larger than
the recommended national goal of 71.5 million acres.

Following an extended dry period, practically the entire hard winter
wheat belt of the Southwest received soaking rains in early November.
Seeding is now practically complete and reports indicate that the crop is
in satisfactory condition in most sections of the country. This is a very
different outlook from that of early November last year T.hen much of the
seedings were in the dust.

If 80 million acres are seeded and if average yields of 15 bushels
per acre are obtained, a crop of 1,200 million bushels would be produced.
(This is 35 million bushels more than the allowance made in the Outlook
issue of The "'h.at Situation, which used the 1948 acreage as the basis
of calculation,7T
3/ These figures arc a compilation made by the County Agricultural Con-
servation Committees and reported through State P.M.A, Committees, and are
not comparable vith published figures for previous years.


,.





'S -108


With the likelihood that domestic disappearaiinc in 1949-50, includ-
ing food, f-ed, and seed, ,will total about 700 million bushels--the same. as
new estimated .for the: current year--about 500 million bushels of 1919 crop
wheat would be available for export or addition to carry-over. Exports
in 1949-50 could be substantially below the unusually high level of the
past 3 years. Compared with exports last year of 430 million bushels, and
450-500 million in the current 1948-49 year, a t-ntative range of the
United States w-.het exports in 1949-50 is 300 to 400 million bushLls. This
is still considerably above average annual exports sine. 1909

The size of our exports in 1949-50 r'ill depend to a large extent
upon the ray the crops turn out in both exporting and importing countries.
Further recovery of agricultural output in iurope and Asia, and a wider
distribution of grain from surplus producin- areas .f Eastern Europe and
the U.S.S.R. arc assumed for 1949-0.0 In a.'ditjon to crop out-turn, the
financial and political role played b:, t-he '.nitrd Stjtcs in international
affairs will continue to be vry important in dct,.rminin. rThc quantity of
Leports from the United States

If exports amount to .00-100 million bushels, a crop of 1,200 mil-
lion bushels in 1949 v.ould add 10U-20OC0 Million btirhels to the carry-.ovcr
at the end of the 1949-50 markctin4 ytar. Thus, the building up of stocks
vhich began last y.ar, v.ill continue. During th.. currentt 194S-49 market-
ing year, the carry-over is likely to b. increased from 196 million bushels
on hand at the .beginning of the s ason to around .70O million on July 1,
1949, And, on lhe basis of the foregoing. assumptions for 1949, stocks on
July 1, 1950 could be 400..500 million bushlcs. This ,.would be about double
the prewar avLral.c of 235 million but would rb vrell below the all time
peak in 1942 of 631 million,

Domestic Food Use Revised by Amount of
Exports of Semolina and Products

Annual exports of crmolina, and macaroni and related products have
exceeded the equiva.cnt of a million bushels of 'iieat in rLcent fyars.
In the Supply and Distribution tablu 11, thcsL. h-ve teen ndd.:d to exports
and deducted from domestic food rctL.ntion beginning July 1, 1915, Figures
for earlier years are sho"-n in the footnote to table 10,

The determination of the quantity of vrhcat used for U.S. food tin-
cluding food i'or military services) inolves certain -trditions and deduct-
ions from th.e total flour Zrin.3. 'The additions include flour imports and
an allowance f'or breakfast foods procesecd outside the flour milling in-
dustry. The deeductions include; flour Exports :.Iad bot$ from Unitrd States
wheat and front Canadian wheat milled in bond, and shipments of flour to
Alaska, Ha:.aii, and PuLrto Rico, b.-sides the ex:norts of semolina, and
macaroni and related products. Iliilit:try .expcrts for civilian feeding aru
incluodd in exports.

Figures for total grind for July 1, 1939 through Decembcr 1946 are
those published'by the BurLau of Census for calendar years 1939-46,
adjusted to a marketing year. Figures since 1946 assume that the monthly
figures as reported currently by Census represent 98 percent of the total
grind. The series on total grind will be rc--is-d on the basis of the
1947 Census of MIanufacturers xhen it becomes available in carly 1949.
0


- 7 -





SElPT.-NOV. 1948 6 -

The detornination of the quimtity of wheat flour used by the United
States civilian population involves deductin- from the United States total
wheat food the qu-aitities used by the military y services for their food 4/
and deducting also civilian brca.zfast food use. On this basis, domestic
civilian flour consLumption was 148 pounds in 1945-46, 140 pounds in 1946-47,
and 1-10 pounds in 1947-43, compared with the 1935-39 average of 153 pounds.

T.'E WORLD 'FTiAT SITUATION!

BACKGROU1ID.- On July 1, 1943, stoci:s in the four -principal
exporting countries were a record of 1,7.57 million bushels.
t.; July 1945, however, they wero donm to 318 million bushels.
In 1946 the:, were 387 million and in 1047 were 385 million.
Greatly increased disappearance was caused by wartime de-
pletion of food supplies in importing countries and b:y poor
crops in many oreas. Stocks in these countries on July 1,
1347 ".:ere the smallest since 1939, about 1G percent less
than t;he 1C35-39 average. of' 458 million bushels. On July 1,
1C'43, these stocks had incre-te'i to 535 million bushels.

Tr-xortaule "'.:,'liez About the Sa.'e
As i. 1947-48: European Import
lieeds Continue Laar-e

E::portable wheat s..pplies for 104'3-40 from; the four principal ex-
pc..rtit J- countries--United States, Csiaada, Ar.s tralla alId Arentina--are
tentrLtivel" e-tintated at ab..utut Su millionn : bu':Lcl-, assnmin'g 475 million
from tl] e United States aDnd about '"4''~ Lillion bushels f'rorL Canada. 'th3r
countries, including the Soviet 1Unicn may ):'asi' ly export another 50 mil-
lion, i.iaiing a total 'or 1-4.'-40 a'.out teo sacie t.s the 935 r;iilion bushels
e:Ported rin 1C47--1, wheo: e::i:orts from other countries also totaled about
50 million bushels.

lou :hl: it is :-::-ecteed that about t.o-thirds of such a quantity
will -Co to EuroLcar. c.u:'ril participating in the European Recovery
Program. Exports of Lhis sfze t..-. those countries, in addition to esti-
mated dom;:ietic production, would provide a ca;r capita consumption of wheat
approaching prevwar levels for i'te -area aT a whole, if no allowance is made
for rebuildinC stocI:s. However, in addition to a substantial increase in
population, these countries have a lowv level of reserve stoch s of all food
products, and there is continu-LC need for using food grains as a substitute
for other foods in s3'hort sup:l;.

United S tate- Exrprts :f heat and ?!hur
riai"r or o '2 otal; Largest In
ictor' f Er a 'injg-le C'-ontr.y

'.orld e::;po;ts of whea'l and rye, including. flour, in 1947-46 totaled
C.."' million lonx tons, c.:-"rc -!d iit!L ?0.7 million lon,- tons in 1943-47
and their prc:.-'ar cveC'ra e c 1-.. 6 million ion; tons. Exports from the


/' militaryy food use by cars beginning July 1, 1045 were 20.48 million
bushols, 5.51 million Lusliel-, and 6.60 million bushels.






13S-108


United States accounted for 49.5 percent of the total. Canada supplied
21.6 percent, Argentina 11.8 percent, Australia 10.6 :..er.ent, and all ether
exporting countries 6.5 percent; Exports of these bread -rains constituted
76 percent of the total world's grain e::ports, e::cluding rice. Other grains
in this total are corr., oats, Larley, and grain sorghuzis.

Because of the record 1.047 wheat crop in the United States and the
small corn crop that year, .:heat and wheat L'rour made up a much larger pro-
portion of exports from the United States i.n 1947-48 than in an", of the
preceding postwar years. United States exports of wheat and wheat flour,
in terms of grain, reached a record total of 480 million bushels (,:05 mil-
lion bushels of.w-heat and 175 million bushels in form of flour) last
season 5/. That ras the largest quantity of w-.heat and flour exported by
this or any country in any single year in all history. The previous record
was 423 million bushels exported 1.,y Can.da in 19'8-29. Sinco the end of
the war, the United States has assumed the position held for many -ears by
Canada as the world's largest single: ec:-.orter of wheat. This resulted from
an abnormal trade situation and a success:on of record-brca::ing crol s in
the United States. In the npotuwUr years, 'aztern .'.:rope and Ar-entina have
supplied a much smaller proportion of world grail e::po--ts than the;.' did in
the late Thirties.

A number of special table: are Lncluded in tnis i'sse which give
details on exports. The c.untri s o'f rigin ..f gra.in exports for selected
average periods and the past two narl:etinn yea.r: ai-e ]shovrn in table 1. The
countries of destination of world grain ex;:orts for th- past tvo .years are
shown in table 12, and the destination of United State: e::rorts of wheat
and flour for 1955-39 and the past hrtwo years are shounr in tale 2. United
,States exports of rhcat and flour are further s'.oiw. by, procurinP agencies--
BIRA, military, and c.,.mmorcial--in table 3. This table also si.or'e exports
of semolina, and macaroni and related products not included in ';he o;her
export tables.

World Bread Grain Crop in 1948
-S-ighty above Average

World broad grain production in 1948 is slightly a"jove the 1935-39
average and well above the 1947 crop. European bread Crain crops are sub-
stantially larger than in 1947, as a result of ver. favorable yields per
acre, but production is still well below prewar levels.

WIorld wheat production is estimated at 6.285 million bushels, which
is 5 percent above the 6,310 million bushels, the prewar average, and
8 percent above the 5,815 million bushels produced in 1947 (ta'-le 4). The
sharp increase in wheat production in -,he United States and a substantial
increase in China, compared with prewar, jiore t;ian offset reductions in most
other areas. Rye production is forecast at 1,625 million bushels, compared
with'the average of 1,730 trillion bushels and the 1747 crcp of 1,420 millionn
bushels (table 5).

Moisture condition in Argentina is fairly satisfactory in the south,
but in northern sections moisturere is ne:led. Seedings are unofficially esti-
mated at about 13.0 million acres, compar-d .ith 12.3 million acres last year,
and yield is expected to be average or souev.i:wat better t.ian average but below
the 20.3 bushels of last year.

5/ In addition to flour, semolina and macaroni totaled 6.4 million bushels in
terms of wheat (table 3).





SEPT.,-NOV.,1948 10 -

The crop in Australia is unofficially estimated at about 190 mil-
lion bushels. Both acreage and yield this year are.below last year when
228 million bushels were produced on 14.0 million acres.

European LIoisture Gencrally Favorable

Moisture conditions for fall-sown wheat and rye in Continental Europe
are now gcncrally favorable. Conditions were spotty until late October,
when rains relieved the situation and facilitated seeding. As yet there
is little information on acreage but some increase in the total is expected
In the United Kingdom, wcath..r has been seasonable, and an increase in'
acreage of as much as 10 percent is planned. In the U.S.S.R. the seeding
of winter wheat is heavier than last year, and plowing for spring wheat for
1949 is ahead of a year ago. The 1948 winter wheat crop in that area,
turned out well, but yields per acre of spring 1.'heat vrre reduced by un-
favorable conditions, especially by drought in the middle and lower Volga
Regions.

Trend toward Bilateral State Grain
Trading Continues

A significant feature of the grain trade during 1947-48 was the'con-
tinued development of the postwar trend toward bilateral state trading.'
Exporting countries having such arranCcm.nts included Canada, Australia '
Argentina and the U.S.S.R. Substantial quantities of the 1947-48 exportable
surpluses of th.-at in those countries had been committed before the begin-
ning of the marketing year. Of the 4-50 million bushels of vheat and flour
exported front countries other than the United States during the year, approx-
imately 350 million bushels, -or 73 percent, moved under such arrangements.
Practically all of the coarse grains exported from Argentina and the U.S.S4R6
also were included in this category of trade. whilee various types of
com'::it.lnnts such as long-term trade agrccments, bulk purchase contracts,.
and barter dtals, vcre in effect, all r'crc characterized by govcrnment-to-
govcrnrment sales at fixed prices or their equivalent.

The bilateral agreements and cornmitnents in existence at the present
time are probably not of immediate concern to the United States because of
the continuing abnormal postwar denend for cereals, Nearly all the contracts
now in existence: have not provided for quantities approaching the total
cereal requirements of any importer. Th! Canadian-United Kingdom and the
Argintina-Brazil agreements come close to covering total needs but the latter
agreement has not b en fully implemented. These agreements do have the
effect, of course, of restricting the area within which the United States
may compete.

The current situation represents a growth of developments that were
apparent even before r.orld ".'ar II. Importing countries have seon in the
agreements a way to assure stable supplies of a basic commodity.- Exporting
countries, on the othc.r hand, are seeking assured markets for their export-
able surpluses. At the same time, both have bcn motivated by a desire to
encournge two-ay'tradc as a miens of solving balance of payments and other
exchange problems. Unless othtr means of trade are developed, the United
States in the future'could br a residual supplier to many of the grain
markets of the world.-


......................... ....... ......... ...





S- 108 "- 11 -
Table .- Origin of vorld exports of grain and grain products, averages
for specified periods, annual for 194b-47 and 1947-48


Exporting
countries


1910-14 avernae /

U. S.
Canada
Australia
Argentina
Danube Pasin
Russia
All others
Total
1929-33 average 2/.
U. S.
Canada
Australia
Argentina
Danube Basin
Russia
All others
.Total
1934-38 average 2/.
U. S.
Canada


Australia
Argentina
Danube Basin
Russia
All others
Total
1946-47 2/
U, S,
Canada
Australia
Argentina
Other
..Total
1947-48 2/
U. S.
Canada
Australia
Argentina
Other
Total


S Bread
: Total :


grains Coarse grains
Petcen:t : Total : Percent
:Th. long
tons
148 : 1,342 98
13.0 : 329 2,4
6.8 .
11.8 : 3,502 25.5
18.3 : 2,387 17.4
27.0 : 5,428 39o5
8.3 : 737 5.4
100.0 :13,725 100,0


:Th, long
tons
:2,891
: 2,527
: 1,332
:. 2,289
: 3,555
: 5,266
: 1,615
:19,475

: 3,418
S7.,291
: 3,304
: 4,267
: 1,399
: 1,575
: 1,107
;22,361

: 1,019
: 4,945
2,792
: 3,560
: 1,344
753
: 1,212
:15,625

:O10,767
: 6,214
: 1,315
: 1,707
: 663
:20,666

:12,946
: 5,659
: 2,777
: 3,076
: 1,693
:26,151


4u8
2.9
.4
5207
20o2
7,0
12,0
100.0

8.4
3.7
-5
56,4
11,8
3,2
16,0
100.0

52,9
6.9
,6
32.6
7.0
100.0

25,2
1.5
4.4
.46,5
22.4
100.0


: All grains
:"Total : Percent
:Th. long
Stones
: 4,233 12.8
: 2,856 8,6
: 1,332 4.0
: 5,791 17.4
: 5,942 17.9
:10,694 32,2
: 2,352 7.1
:33, 200 100.0

: 4,057 11.4
: 7,669 21.5
:3,359 9.4
:11,278 31.6
: 4,094 11.5
: 2,512 7,0
: 2,707 7.6
:35,676 100.0

: 2,079 7.4
: 5,409 19.2
2,364 10,1
:10,679 37.8
: 2,832 10.0
: 1,153 41
: 3,232 11.4
:28,248 100.0

:14,903 52.3
: 6,757 23.7
: 1,366 4.8
: 4,254 14.9
: 1,209 4.3
:28,489 1.00,0

:15,031 43.6
: 5,783 16.7
: 3,150 9.1
: 7,013 20.3
: 3,585 10.3
:34,612 100,0


/ Fron official records of the U. S. Department of Agriculture. Years
beginning July 1 of previous year for wheat, corn, oats and barley, and '
August 1 of previous yea r for rye.
2 Front official records of the U. S. pepart bent of :Agriculture. Years beginning
July 1 of previous'year for wheat and rye, and January of specified year
for corn, oats and barley.
Preliminary; '
3/ From record of the International Eiergency Food Conmittee. Exports for .
July-June yar for all grains.


15.3
32.6
14. g
19"1
6.3
7. 0
4.9
100,0

. 6.5
31,6
17o9
22,S
8.6
4.8
7.8
100.0

52.1
30.1
6;4
802
3,2
100.0

49.5
21.6
10,6
11,8
6,5
100o0


: 639
378
: 55
: 7,011
: 2,695
937
1,600
:13,315

: 1,060
S464
72
:- 7,119
: 1,483
S400
: 2,020
:12,623

4,136
S 543
S 51
:2,547
54o
: 7,23

2,135
S124
S 373
: 3,937
: 1,892
:8,461


ExportinZ
counta'ius





Sept. Nov 1948 12 -

Table 2 .- Destination of U.S. exports of heat and flour 1j average for
2 years beginning July 1, 1937, and annual beginning
July 1, 19.16 and 19-27.


Destination


Austria
Belgium and Luxembourg :
Denmark
France and French Iorth :


:1937 and 1938::
a'1940-47 1947-48
: average _: ____:_
: Wheat and :Wheat and: ht F
flour : flour : heat Flour


M.1llion
bushels

12.8


iiillion
bushels
11.8
15.4


Million
bushels
13.8
8.7
.7


)I,llion
bushel s
7.0
3.0
,2


-heat and flour
I Wheat and flour |


Million
bushels
20.8
11.7
.9


Africa .8 12.4 40,9 18.9 59.8
Germany 2.0 80.9 92.6. 46.2 138.8
Greece : 1.' 10.3 14.3 8.5 22.8
Iceland : -- --- --- .1 1
Ireland -- ?.? 2.1 2.0 4.1
Italy : 1.0 35.4 3516 14.1 49.7
le't'ierlands : 15,8 18.6 16,7 7.5 24.2
ior'-.ay : 6 5.8 2,4 1,5 3r9
Portu.l -- 5.3 4.6 2.0 6.6
Swveden -- .3 1.7 .4 2.1
Switzerland : 1 3.4 1,5 4.9
Turkey : ---- .3 --- .3.
United i:ingdom 2/35.6 30,7 _27 .7 3.4
Total ECA Participants: 70,0 235,2 240.5 113.6 354.1


Spain
U.S.S.E.
Other Europe
Total Other iurope
Total Lurope

Philippines
China
India
Japan, Eorea, Ryukyu
Thailand & Burma
Other Far East
Total Far _ast


w---- --... .. m---
S 4,0 17.1 2.1 4.1 6.2
: 4.0 17. __ 2.1 4.1 6.2
74.0 252..3 242.6 117.7 360.3


7.1
5.6
21,4
36.1


1.7
10,8
35.1


4.7
2.3
4.3
10.2


S 3/--- 8.8 --- 6.0
10.0 79.0 47,6 27.5


4.7
4.0
15.1
45.3

6.0
75.1


Canada
Latin American Republics:
Other Areas
Total 'forld


9.6
9.6
103. ?


1--6
16.6


.8
11.9
1.8


m---m
21.6
8.0


394.7 304.7 174.8


1/ In grain equivalent, holly of U.S. ":heat.
2 Ireland included.
3/ Included in otl:er areas.

Destination of wvcrld c:-ports of gr-in and grain exports, 1946-47 and 1947-48
shown in t-bl. 11, pa g 21.
- -- -- -- -------------------------------------------- ----- -- -- -- -- -- ---


.8
33.5
9.8


479.5


----~








Agencies and products


EXPORTS AIID SHIPMENTS BY AG-ECIES :
Exports
P.M.A. Non-Civilian Relief
Whft and flour ...................
Semolina and macaroni .............:
Total P.M.A. non-civilian relief :
Commercial Non-Civilian Relief
Wheat and flour ...................:
Semolina and macaroni .............:
Total commercial non-civ. relief :
Civilian Relief ''heat and Flour
P.I.A. procurred .................. :
Military rrocurred ................:
Civilian Relief, Semolina & Macarani:
Total civilian relief ...........
TOTAL EXPORTS ...................:
Shipments (Commercial,) j/ .........:


:Jul-De:Jan-June: Total :July-D n-
:July-Dec:Jan-June: Total :July-Dec:Jan-June:


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


111,951
124
112,075

34,863
163
35,026

20,946
32,181

,53,12(
200.2?2
1,gI1l


110,726
217
110,943

51,720
245
51,965

25,554
1,996
456

1)0,91 L
2,7l~l


Total :July-Dec:Jan-June: Total


TOTAL EXPORTS AMl SHIPI EIS ...... 202,069 1 ,075 15.144 163, 352 237,381 400,733


EXPORTS AND SHIPi-.i;TS BY PRODUCTS
Exports
1.heat ..............................
Flour ....... ...................... :
Total wheat and flour ...........:
Semolina and macaroni ..............:
TOTAL EXPORTS ...................:
Shipments
,Wheat ..............................:
Flour .......................... :
TOTAL STIPIM~2TS .................:


139,o0 o

199.941
287
200,P289

66
1,775
1,841


1 -,03o4
5i,912
189, ,-

190 ,91

51
2,110
2,161


273,144
116, 793
3S9,9 37
1,205


117
3,325
1,002


99,950
60,137

1,1-37



1,995
2,128


98,860
135,1


2 ,5,71

35
1,775
1,810


198,810
195, 301
394,111
2.684


168
3,770
3,9 ~5


256,831 232,713 489,544


166,173
97,51)
253, 5S
1,114
254,803

78
1.950
2,028


TOTAL NXPORTS AND SHIPMET'S .... : 202,069 193,075 35,1k 16, 52 237, 731 200,733 56, sI


87,422
225,9350

231.171

10
1,510


304,637
174,932
479.619
6,35


3,480

3.568


b
El""
DQ~


IJ Includes macaroni products in terms of -,heat. 2/ Products in terms of wheat. _/ Tc Alaska, Hawaii, Puert(
. nd Virgin Islands. Prepared from reports of Bureau of Census, Department of Agriculture and National Defense
. Ad..mini trati un
i? : ".. ". '^ k: % ..'.'. -..E ....... .,, .


232,713 49q,544


) Rico


'


:


1,000
bushels


222,677
341
223,013

86,583
408
6,991l

46,500

456

391,142
4,002


1,000
bushel s


87,066
15
87,081

37 590
1,076
-1 6bhb

35,454

23
3 .., 77

2 .12g


1,000
bushels


87,398
62
87.460

95,213
1 45
9b.b98

51.413



235 571
1 .10


1,000
bushels


174,464
77
174, 541

132,803
2 561


86,867

23
8b 890
3'6,795
.9 38


1,000
bushels


135,195
43
135,233

57,301
1,071
58, 373

61,193


61,193
254,803
2,023


1,000
bushels


110,529
315
110.844

40, 385
928
S45,313

75,016


75,016
231,173
1,540


1,000
bushels


245,724
358
246,082

97,686
5.999
103,6895

136,209


136,209
485.976
3.56S
















WHEA: Acreage, yield per acre, and production In specified countries, year of harvest,
average 1935-39, annual 1946-48 A/


Continent : __
and : Average :
country : 19%i 9 :
: 1,000 :
: acres
NORTE AMERICA::
Canada.................... ..' 25,595:
Mexico................... :. 1,244:.
United States............... 57.2931
Estimated total / ........: .f170:

EUROP: : :
Albania..................... 99:
Anstria.....................: 630
Belgium................... 402:
Bulgaria ................... : 3,362:
Czechoslovakia.............. 2,175:
Denmark..................... 319t
Sire ....................... 225:
Finland..................... 230:
France....................... 12,560:
Gerany ......................... 4,250:
Greece...................... 2,150:
Hungary ..................... 4,091:
Italy.......................: 12,577:
Luxembourg.................. 47:
Netherlands................. 338:
Nora.................... ...: 80
Poland...................... 3,260:
Portugal................... 1,227:
Rumania..................... 6,900:
Spain....................... q/ 11,253:
Sweden...................... 7:
Switzerland................: 183:
United Kingdom.............. 1.843 .
TYugolavia .................. : 5.400,
Estimated total eg/........ 74.30-;

U.S.S.E. (Europe and Asia).... 104,000:
31l


Acreage b/ : Yield per acre / Production


1946 : 1947


1,000 :
acres :

24,076:
.1,025:
67.07-9:
92.250:



545:
376:
3,768:
2,250:
2211
643:
390:
10,106:

1,875:
2,698:
11.700:
41:
302:
95

1,616:
a
9.400:
748:
232:
2,062: .



73.000:
I


1,000 :
acres :

24,260:
1,236:
74.186:
99.750:


130:
495:
220:
3,680:
2,140:
60:
580:
398:
9,250:

2,000:
3.100:
11,500:
20:
212:
86:

1,636:

9,625:
723:
230:
2,163:

75,580:

75,000:
!


1948 : Av
1,000 :
acres : Bu

24,106:
1,483:
71. 02:
97.150:



520:
385:

171:
0o:

11,100:

1,980:

11,860:
40:
244:
94:


a
1,640:


780:
230:
2,282:

68i9q60:


erage :
35-39 :


hale
abels :

12.2
11.5 1
13.2 :
- a


15.2
25.3 :
40.2 :
20.5 :
26.2 :
45.4 :
34.2 s
26.5
22.8 :
34.6 :
14.0 s
22.3 :
22.1
25.9 9
43.8 :
29.9 1
22.7 8
13.1 3
16.2 :
14.0 :
35.6 :
33.1 :
33.8 B
18.1 1


11.9


1946 1947

Bushels : Bshels :

17.2 : 13.9 8
12.2 : 12.6
17.2 : 18.4
::

16.3 : 15.4
18.9 : 19.6 :
43.1 29.5 :
18.0: -
23.6 -
.4 : 36.7 :
26.9: 29.3
20.5 : 19.1
24.7 : 16.2

14.1 10.6
17.8 : 14.8 s
20.3 : 17.8 1
23.4 : 22.5 1
43.6 : 35.
29.1 27.8

11.6 7-9 a

14.1: 11.4 3
33.4 : 20.3 1
32.2 : 31.3
55.6 28.8

: -
:I
10.7 : 11.7 a
3 3


1948 : Average 1946
: 9199-3L :


Bushele :

16.3 :
12.04 8
18.0 I
:1


22.1
41.6


51.6 a
34.3
22.1
27.0 1

14.1

21.1 :
27.5 3
45.6 :
29.8 1
- a
9.1 1

12.4 'L
32.1
39.1 1
37.2 1



- :1
Il


1,000 :
bushels :
:


1,000 :
bushels :


312,399: 413,725:
14,284: 12,493:
758.629:1.15.6i461
.086.000:1.580.0001l
: *

1,507: 2,200:
15,942: 10,300:
16,150: 16,200:
69.080: 67,900:
57.000o 53,000:
14,470: 10,915:
7,689: 17,274
6,100: 8,000:
286,510: 250,000:
147,000: :
30,205: 26,500:
91,210: 48,000:
278,366: 238,000:
1,2158 959:
14,791: 13,180:
2,391: 2,7611
74,0001 -
16,092: 18,666:
112,000: s
/157,986: 133,000:
26.351: 25.0171
6,050: 7,477:
62.361: 73,442:
q7.700: I


,592,000.1

,240,000:
:


1947
1,000
bushel. :

336.758:
15,616:
,3b4.919:1
.718,000:1


2,000:
9,700:
6,500:
a
I
2,200:
17,000:
7,600:
150,000:
21,200:
46,000:
205,000:
450:
7,500:
2,390%
3
12,860
3
110,000:
14,660:
7,200:
62,250:
I


.310.000:1.025.000: 1.46bo00

780,000: 875,000:


1948
1,000
bushels


393.342
18,372
.28.770
Aofi 000


-
11,500
16,000
-

8,820
18,500
9,100
300,000

28,000
-

250,000
1,100
11,130
2,800

15,000

120,000
25,000
9,000
85,000


u


I


, .lw--


I









AS












St


Total. .................. 1 14: 21.321: 1,991.: 13,1 .1:

Estimate world total a'... .. 4.Q9C': 3040: ci10: 40700:


IA : : : :
Iran.......................: / 4.191: I -
Iraq........................g 1,724: 2,000: 2,000: -
Lebanon..................... W : 160: 173: 173:
Palestine...................I 53: 340: : -
Syria.......................: / 1,363: 1,927: 2,0854 2,132:_
Turkey ...................... 8,952: 9.24-6 9,6581 9,884:
Chin............................./ 49,000: 56,800: 56,900: 52,200:
Manchuria...................: 2,896: 1 : :
India Y/....................: .,,492: ?L,9 7: .,1:': 5.,000:
Japan........................ 1,73 : 1,562: 1,492: :
Rorea........................ : S 2: : : -
E'.tiatei totu.l e ......... 107,j00: 114.b70: 115.110: 1ih.--L:

OUTH AiU CA::
Ar-. r ttlr. ............. ... .... : 1I.,8:4: iF.,, '-: 1l .56: 1- .X
Bratil....................... : 4 : All: :
Chil.e............. ......... : ,' : 1,873 L,023: L', i1
P. ni........................: 2. .: 247: 247:
Uru s uay......................a 1.2110:_ oC: 1_ .: :
E Lin~e-..d total ae ........ 20.00 1.200: 1',, '4 17. :-"


Algoria........ .. ...... 4,i41 i 20C : 3.,700: ,7'0:
F~rpt...................... 1,4614: 1,tjo: 1,692: 1.573:
Frrnch llorocco..............: 3.24: 2,417: 3,000: 2,590:
r.Ai ii..................: 1,915 1 .bt70: : 2,044:
Union of South Africa ....: 1,92b: 2,500: 200: :

EstimatBld total e'..... ..... 1.820 : 12,60 1 .30: 11,7C0:

CLANIA:
Australia ................. ... 13,125: 13,180: 11,871 : 13,000:
Ne, Zealand ........ ..... : 221: 1411 119: 150:


/' Year asbwn r'"fer to y:-.r- oIf harnet Il the NIcrth.-r Hamierr..r-. Kir-v. ts of :Itia:n her ipr-. ; :ouL c rt r1s are comblLr.d witr LLose of tl. -..
H-m.laphrrn wnich nImmditely fvllo,. thrus, tt- crop hart-st.dJ in itL !'orthper :enl e-lh ir ir .4g 1 :z.b-ird with prt pi mir i.ry for'cOizsb for :t.
Sootthprn HvBlpbhi- h'arv'.-st.- w-rl'h will t'rit late' In 1i?:S and e.i ."ly :. 1-. t F--,-'-r.- r--r to nasrva-d ar&as as :ir posslitl. T -..
per acre calculated from acr ir-e an.' production datai slow. n-cet fr inr...?:.l,- :. o1 d TV'.-r i -'.:Li.t.s for Nortern Beedspnere cou.t:r.
for Snuthrn Bemlsphere, pr-pltmin-ary force -,sts b-sed r lare-ly on ,:r'_- i .-(.t'Irr ci.l 1:1 ori t t. dat, g' Elstlmreted tot -al, whicn in te caie of
production are rounded to million,, Include alloa-nc's f:r an.y missint: .lit:. for countril. ain:.n airn fo or other producing countries not ahoi.n. f Fi -_
for 1935 only. g/ Avcrage of less lhan S years. h/ Fstlumten for Syria rd Lebanon not sh-wr. separately au.rinZ tLis period. i. Ir.cl .s r',ja.n...
r.;tinnts for rop.rtini ar'i only. Allowances for non-riporting area, hot shown, are included Itr estimated total for Asia. ,1' uaroFean production
only.

Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, reports of United States
Foreign Service officers, results of office research or other information. Prewar estimates for countries having changed boundaries have been adjusted
to conform to present "oundaries.


S7.2 : 7/ 72.128: 76,5361 70.731: 77,000
S10.7 7.3 : 6.2 : 18,114: 14,697: 12,500: 12,000
h 16.1: 11.7 13.9 / : 2,570: 2,021: 2,400
S 8.4 : : 3244: 2,873: I -
/14.3 10.8 : 7.1 : 10.8 :h/ 19, 85: 20,900: 14,838: 23,000
15.2 18.9 : 13.5 15.7 : 135,690: 175,000: 130,000: 155,000
/ 15.3 : 15.6 : 16.2 : 18.0 :/750,000: 387,800: 919,600: 940,000
12.4 : :- 36035: : : -
10.7 9.: 8.5 : 10.0 : 70,660: .37.415: 290,752: f,' .j
28. : 14. 19.1 : : 49,94: 22,613: 28,55i0: -
12. : : : 10 : -
: _- : .- :15. 0.0. r.-. 000:1,51.,000: -]1 10



:.. 1 .0 L .2 : 16,C: : '
In.1 : 17.? : lit, : -..: : -,s.2: :} ,i .: 439,4 C': t
1 : 1: I .1 : : ',174: 3,17: 3,491:
: I : 0_ : 0 tS : .000i: 1lc. 00: 2 0-j


: 1: 1. 7. : 12.1 : }i..x l: J C,,000: 28,000 '45,6.
51.7 I -: 1 : 3.q. : : 24 ,8. 4: 42,74 ; ,: 40,00: 1, yI
7.(. 11.4 : 8. : 24,714: 27,412: 24,500: 3 .'C,*
7. : 7.5 :1- : : ,9 ;2: 12zX : 11,000: .1.,.
8.3 : : b : : lb.025: 1 22: 16,777:
: _- : 144.,000: IL4.000: 13o0.00: i* *


12.? : : 15.9 14.2 : l9,714: 117,. 2: 220,000: 1L-;',
12.5 : .1 : _. 12: 4.284 : _

: :.7 : l .17 3: 122l.b'.0: 224.28: 100, 'C

: 6:o.010,O:;.75. O000i1 ,8 15,00*: t-L',-. _.


0


il





ETES Acreage, yield per acre, and production in specified countries, year of harvest,
average 1935-39. annual 194b-48 &/

Continent : acreage b/ : TYie per acre c : Production
and :Average : 1946 1947 194 Average 1946 g197 1948 Average 196 1947 1948 /
country :1935-39: : : 1935-9:9 : : :19,5-39 :
: 1,000 : 1.000 : 1,000: 1,000 : : : 1.000 : 1,000 : 1.000 1.000
: acres :a : acre e : acres : Bushe l : BUhels : hurih : Bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels
NOBTH AMERICA: : a : : : :
Canada...................... 816: 715: 1,156: 2,103: 11.3 : 12.3 a 11.4 : 12.1 .,191: 8,8111 13,217: 251.8
United States............... 1 .699 1,607: 2.022: 2.187: 12.1 t 11.7 : 12.8 a 12.2 s 44.917: 18.579: 25.977: 26,664
Total...................... 4515: 2.322: 3.178: 4.,90: : 4.108: 27.690: 39.19: 52,012
ERO PE :
Austria ..................... 8811 620: 580: 640: 23.4 s 19.0 a 19.7 a 21.9 20,611: 11,800s 11,400: 14,000
Belgium........... ........ 369: 287: 230: 235: 389.8 36.6 37.8 40.4: 14,319: 10,500: 8,700: 9,500
Bulgaria .................... 635: 500 746: a 17.6 a 17.0 11,150: ,500: : -
Czechoslovakla ..............: 2.50: 2,160: 2,100: : 6.0 25.5 61,000 55,000: -
Denmark..................... 354: 343 259: 415: 28.2 : 32.9 27.2 : 37.1 : 9973: 11,289: 7,050: 15,500
Finland................. ....: 00: 366: 387: 368: 24.6 19.7 : 20.9 20.4 : 12.300: 7,200: 8,100: 7,500
Prance..................... 1,614: 1,150: 1,170: 1,360: 18.6 : 17.0 a 15.1 : 17.8 : 30,013: 19,500: 17.700: 24,200
Germany..................... 7,055: I : : 29.1: 205,000: : -
Greece......................: 163: 133: 158: 125: 13.8 14.8 a 10.8 14.4 : 2,a2 : 1.970: 1,700: 1,800
Hungary..................... : 1,583 1,122: 1,210: : 18.5 : 14.9 14.5 : 29,35: 16,701: 17,500: -
Italy........................ e/ 252: 255: 250: 260:e/ 21.7 : 17.6 17.2 19.2 :g/ 5.456: 4,500t 4,300: 5,000
Luxembourg.................. 1:8 15: 13: 15 25.7 : 25.7 : 21.2 r 26.7 462: 386: 275, 400
Netherlands....................: 559: 556: 44: 454 35.1 5 32.3 s 27.9 a 32.7 19,626: 17.948: 12,506: 14,860
Norway........................ 13: 6: 4: 7I 31.2 : 32.8 25.0 1 35.7 a 405: 197: 100: 250
Poland...................... 13,425 : : a 21.2 : :24,000: : -
Portugal.................... 342: 598: 625: 625: 13.1 10.2 : 9.4 10.4 4,485: 6,100: 5,900: 6,500
Rumania...................... 640: I I 15.6 : 10,000: : : -
Spain................ .... / 1,415: 1,466: 1,460: 1,460:t/ 13.6 : 13.7 12.3 13.7 a/ 19,205: 20,078: 18,000: 20,000
Swedan ....................... 495: 387 285: 395: 30.0 a 29.4 a 19.7 a 31.0 : 14,828: 11.384: 5,614: 12,500
Switzerland..........3..... 3835 35: 3.2 : 30.6 3 25.3 31.4 1.260 1,134 990: 1,100
United ringdom.............. 161 55: 36: 61: 2.9 : 28.4 : 24.4 30.2 : 398: 1.560: 880: 1,s84
Yu&oslavia.................... 6 : .1 -.4 -1 8. 00: -- -
Estimated total / ........ 0.46l 26.:70: 27.2903 2.2000 2 : 7 : 0: 4q.000w 660.00
: a a a : I : :
U.sJ.. (Etrope and Asia).... 60,800: 70,000: 71,000. a/ 14.6 1 12.3 13.0 3 e/885,O000 860,000: 920,000 -
a a : a a a : : ;
Turky.................... 99 939: 8: 1,o46 1,070: 15.2 18i.4 : 14.3 14.5 : 14.301: 18,200: 15,000: 15,500
SOUTH a a a a :
Argentina................. s 1,078: 2,2821 1,731: 1,7001 9.1 9.5 : 10.8 : 9.4 s 9,771: 21,739: 18.700: 16,000
AFRICA: a
Union of South Africa....... e./ 1171 191 191: :_/ 6.8 7.1 8.4 794: 1,3 1,604: -
Estimated world total / ......i 100,900: 102,290: 104,580: 107,890: : : : '1,730,000:1.-41'000:1,L90,000:1,65.2500
-I U -* S *


a/ Tears shown refer to years of harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. Harvests or Northern aemlspnere countries are co uinea wIW u e uM iuo 0.- u
Hemisphere which immediately foolor; thus, the crop harvested in the Northern Hemisphere in 1948 is combined with preliminary forecasts for the
Southern Hemisphere harvests, which will begin late in 1948 end end early in 1949. / Figures refer to harvested areas as far as possible. a/ Yield
per acre calculated from acreage and production data shown, except for incomplete periods. /,' Revised estimates for Northern Hemisphere countries;
for Southern Hemisphere, preliminary forecasts based largely on acreage and weather conditions to date. e/ Average of less than 5 years. I/ Figure
for 1935-only. 6/ Estimated totals, which in the case of production aro rounded to nllions, include allowances for any missing data for countries
shown and for other producing countries not shown.

Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments reports of United States
Foreign Service officers, results of office research, or other information. Prewar estimates for countries having changed boundaries have been adjusted
to conform to present boundaries.


k4.





7IS-108


Ile 6.- Wheat: Y7eighted averagee cash price, specified markl:ts and plates 1947-48

-jAllT closes : HTo. 2 : I. : T.2 : 1.. 2 : Soft
Month 'and grades z Hard : Dark A Hard : Rod : White
and ': six : Winter 1/ : II. Spring :munber Durun: Winter : Portland
date : markets :Kansas CTty:]Iinneapolis:lIinneapolis: -t. Louis : 2/
:1947 191 947 9448 ;:184479 :948 1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948T
:Dol. 'Dol. Dl. DDolj Dl. DD'D. Do. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.
I. -


t1S ... -
liaeber
ober
ended:
tembor 4:
11:
18:
25:
itober 2:


23:
30:
november 6:
13:
- -j-


2.26. .265 2.20
2.28 2.95 2.23


2.54
2.69
2,72
2.67
2.86
2.87
3.00
-.04
* 2..95
S2..33
3 .00


2.20
2.20
2.22
2.22
2.19
2.20
2.21
2.24

2.27
2.27


2.04 2.35 2.73
3.18 2.30 2.95


2.72
2.84
2.85
2.87
3.10
3.05
3.21
3.28
3.24
3.17
3.21


2.33
2.35
2.38
2.34
S-c
2.37
2.43
2.42
2.43
2.50


2.65
2.72
2. 74
2.71
2.92
2.89
2.08
3.07
2.97
2.9G
3 .02


2. 3 2.70 7"25
2.37 2.95 2.26


2.37

2.33
2.33
S.32

2.34
2.44
2.-143
2.42
2.4C


2.62
2.74
2.78
2.67
.2.75
2.93
:3.02
3.13

: ?.34
2.99
L,r*


2.46 2.18
2.75 2.19


2.25 2.35 2.18
2.25 2.46 2.18
2.27 2.46 2.18
2.22 2.48 2.18
2.23 2.61 2.18
2.24 2.67 2.19
2.26 2.77 2.19
2.30 2.82 2.20
2.2V .2.78 2.20
2.32 2.84 2.20
::.36 2.93 2.22


Beginning July 9., 1947 sales of hard ard dark hard winter combined.
Average of daily cash quotations.


Table 7.- VTheat: Average closing prices of December wheat futures,
specified n rlketi and dates, 19'7-43

': 'Chicago : Iansas Cit, :. minneapolis
Period : : :
1347 1948 1947 1048 1947 1.948


: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.


month:
august
September
October
sek ended: :
eptember 4:
11:
S18:
25:
october 2 5
9:
. 16:
23:
30:
'ovember 6:
S13:


2.39...
2.71
.2.96

- 2.63
2.74
2.72 '
2.G9
2.86
2.88
2.99
3.07'
2.95
2.93
3.00


2,.2 6
2.25
2 .27

2.25
2.25
2.26
2.25
2.25
2.25
2.26
2.28
2.29
2.30
2.32


2.30
2.62
2.87

2.54
2.65
2.63
2.61
2.77
2.80
2.91
2.98
2.86
2.86
2.91


2.18
2.17
2.17

2.17
2.17

2.17

2 16
2.16
2 ;13
2.20
2.20
2.22


Dol. Dol.


2.36
2.65
2.88

2.58
2.67
2.65
2.65
2.79
2.82
2.92
2.97'
2.87
2.86
2.93


2.21
2.19
2.20

2.20
2.20
2.20
2.19
2.18
2.19
2.19
2,22
2.22
2.23
2.26


- 17 -


2.80
3.09

2,68
2.80
2,82
2.82
3.05
2.98
3.13
3.19
3.14
3.10
3.13


2.24,
2.25
2.28
2.26
2.23
2.25
2.27
2.33
2.53
2.32
2.36


/


i,


---





SEPT.- NOV. 1948


- 18 -


Table 8 Wheat: Prices per bu ,


Friday nearest mid-month, Jan.-Nov., and weekly, Sept.-Nov. 1948
--- HARD WHEAT : HARD WHEAT : SOFT WHEAT
:United States : Canada :United States: United :
Date :No. 1 Dark No. : No. 2 Man. : No. 1 Dark : States .Australia.
(Friday) :Spring, 13 per-:No. at Fort :Hard Winter : No. 1 / :.
:cent protein at: William : Galveston ;Portland:
: Duluth 1/ : 2/ j- L : It/ .
: Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Ddllaz


Friday mid-mont n
Jan. 16 : 3.23
*Feb. 13 : 2.52
IMar. 12 : 2.62
.Apr. 16 2.79
May 14 : 2.62
.June 11 : 2.57
-July 16 : 2.40
Aug. 13 2.32
Sept.17 2.33
Oct. 15 : 2.34
Nov. 12 : 2.43
Weekly
Seot. 3 : 2.28
10 : 2.27
24 2.27
Cct. 1 2.28
Oct. 8 2.33
Oct. 22 2.40
Oct. 29 : 2.36
Nov. 5 : 2., _
j_ FO.B. spot or to arrive. 2/


3.34
2.59'
2.61
2.69
2.71
2.55
2.47
2.44
2.35
2.33
2.37


3.19
2.345.
2.555
2.615
2.525
2.375
2.33
2.38
2.39
2.405
2.46


.2.91
2.10
.2.25
.2.40
2.37
2.30
2.18
2.185
2.185
.2.185
2.225


2.34 2.37 2.175
2.34 2.39 2.175
2.34 2.365 2.185
2.32 2.37 2.185
2.33 2.37 2.19
2.34 2.425 2.195
2.34 2.41 2.195
2.35 22L 2.5
Fort William quotation is in store.


Table 9.- Wheat: Stocks in the United States on October 1,
averages 1937-41 and 1942-46, and annual 1945-48.

'Stocks position Average : Average 1945 1946 1947 :194&
1937-41 : 1942-46
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1.000
bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushel
Farm ............. 378,777 549,317 517,823 551,669 610,300 542,893
Interior mills, eleva-
tors, and warehouses: 183,988 206,27.8 181,4lO 177,351 203,338 246,93E
Commercial _/ ........ 182,840 188,451 170,305 103,595 175,069 219,113
Merchant mills and mill
elevators .......... 138,782 131,745 128,261 114,463 135,346 129,239
Commodity Credit Corp.
wheat in transit and:
in steel and wood
bins j/ .......... --- 31,267 22,189 2,184 3,990 3,96(
Total ......... 884.387 1.107.058 1.019.988 949.262 ;128.043 1.142.13


/ Commercial stocks reported by Production and Marketing Administration
Commodity Credit Corporation in transit reported by CCC. Stocks in other
are estimates of Crop Reporting Board. CCC-owned, other than in transit,
in estimates by positions.

Annual 1942-44 in The Wheat Situation September-December 1947 page 13.


and
positions:
included


. .


3.30



2.89
2.75


2.50







2.50
---5 __


.:':
A i
4 t





S -108 19-

:.',. Table 10.- Wheat: Supply -nd distribution in continental United States,
S*. 1930-48


,Y ear
. begin
Snin g
:uly .


:
I

i930 :
. 9. 931 :
1992 :
1933 :3
1934 :
1935
1936 :
197 :
1938 :
1939
1940
3941
1942
1943
1944 :
19452:
1946 :
1947Y
194 .


StOck.s
July 1'
1/


La
b7n.

* 291.1-
-312.5
375.3-
377.8-
272.9
145.9
140.4
83.2
153.1-
250.0-
279.7-
384,7-
630.8
618.9
316.6
.279,2
.100.1
83,8
-195.7


Supply -


N eir
New
croo


Ilil.
bu.

886.5
941.5
756.3
5522.
526.1
628.2
629.9
873.9
919.9
741.2
814.6
942.0
969.4
843.8
1,060.1
1,108.2
1,153.0
1,364.9
1,283.8


:: In- :
;:gorts :
: 2/


lMil.
hu.

0.4
*'/
:5/
0.1
15.5
34.6
34.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.5
3.7
1.0
136.'0
42.0
2.0


Totup:
sup:


uIi
bu


S_ Di s tribr tion : Ex-
: Dc-'' tic di sap ocr race_ ports
al : Prc-': : : In- : :in-
ply :cesscA: : :du sri: :. cluding
: for : Fced : Sied : al ':Total : ship-
: food : :: us : : rents
S bu. bu_. bu bu. ba bu
b1. bu. i. bu, bu.


1,173.0
1,254.0
1,131.6
930.1
314.5
803,.7
804.3
957.7
1,073,3
991.5
1,097.8
1,330.4
1,601.2
1,598.7
1,41,.7


4.9.6
4;2.3
49.2.4
44.; .4
459.1
472.6
477.9
*474.6
4-31.4
* / nr ,
- .4 1 -
'470.5

537.0
543.1
537.0


1,339.46/487.4
1,253.1 -491.C-
1,449.7 '491.9
1,47Q.53/4'35.0


179.5
190.2
142.7
102.3
113.4
101.0
115.3.

.153.1
115.1
12:.1
110.3
291.0
488.1
2"7.0
303.
190.5
179,5
110.0


81,I
,0.1j
83.3
78,1
'2.7
82,7
27.5
.95.9
93,1
74.2
72.9
74.3
62.5
65.5
77.3

82.0
86,5
91.4
93.0


5/
* 5/
0.1
0,1
0.1
*5/
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.6
54.3
107.5
82.3
21.0
.0
0.7
0.0


750.2 115.3
7531 '12'5.6
718.' 34.9
6n2.8 28.4
655.3 13.3
661,2 7.1
689.7 12.3
701.2 .103.4
713.1' 109.5
653.5 "48.3
c76.0 37.1
538.2 : 31.4
947.3 34.5
1,216.0 .66.1
986.7 1152.8
_34.2 395.1
763.6 "400.7'
763.5 498.5
ELJ%0o


1/ 1930-36, inclusive, :om.e new wheat included in conmnrcial stocks and !i rchaint
mills stocks; begininng with 1937 only old cro.' :hcat is shoim. in all Atockp
positions. The figure for July 1, 1037, including the ne1. rhcr.t is 102.8 .il-lion
bushels, iuhich is used as year-end carry-over i.:1 'the'1936-37, fir.:zrtir.n year.
j Imports cover all xtheat and flour, c::cu,)t wheat -inprted for nillinG ihi bond
is excluded.
'/ Includes food for. both civilian po ul: tion nnd th:, !-ilita'.,r forces.
SIncludrs flour nade only fror. domestic ;:.e.rt and chi :.ints, to U. S. territories
beginning with 1940 incltidec militaryy exports for rr.-li2., ain exports by the
DepartLment of Agriculture.
/ Less than 50,000 bushels.
6/ Ex-orts July 1, 1945 to date revised to inclbdr slnolina, and tancaroni and
related products, therEby reducing three .,;antity shown for domestic fdod. ibtal
exports and food use ..re not adjusted for serolina and :iac.roni exports prior
to July 1, 1945. These exports for the i.a rketing year be.ninning July l, 1936,
in million bushels, were as follows: 0.1, 0.1, 0,2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.9, 1.4,
Sand 2,6 in 1944-45.
8/ Prelinjirary.
f Supply preliminary, distribution tentative.
/ Rounded to 500 million buLhels in te::t.

:,:, *


I


___


----;------


''
,.
.

.


. ~




SEPT.-NOV. 1948 20 -

Table 11.-Wheat: Supply and distribution, United States, by quarters, 1945-J4&1/

: Supply Distribution
: : : : : iExorts Domestic disappearance
Marketing: : : : Total : :Proc-: : :
years by : : :Im- : Total :disap- and : :essed: :In- :Feed
quarters :stocks Cp prts:suply :pear- snhip- :Total: for :Seed :dus- :
ap 'os: suvosly :pear- ment s
: : :ance : : :food : :trial: 3/
: : : : 2 : 2/ : :
: Mil. Mil. iil. Mil. Mil Mil. Mi Mil. Mil Mil. Mil.
: bu. bu. bu, bu. bu. bu. i, bu. bu. bu. bu.

1945-46 :
July-Sept; 279,2 1,108,2 1.3 1,388.7 36s.7 94.8 273.9 125.4 32.1 16.4 100.0
Oct.-Dec.:1,020.0 --- 0.5 1,020.5 338.5 107.2 231.3 137.2 27.0 3.0 64.1
Jan.-Mar.: 682.0 --- 0.1 682.1 350.0 105.7 244.3 134.4 1.5 1.6 106,8
Apr,-June: 332.1 --- 0.1 332.2 232.1 87.4 144.7 90.4 21.4 4/ 32.9
JULY-JUITE: 279.2 1,108.2 2.0 1,389.4 1,289.3 395.1 894.2 487.4 82.0 21,0 303.8
S
1946-47 :
July-Sept: 100.1 1,153.0 4/ 1,253.1 503.8 79.7 224.1 129.7 34.2 6 60.2
Oct.-Deb.: 949.3 -949.3 707.0 -.7 223.- 134.5 28.8 0 60.0
Jan.-Mar.: 642.3 --- 642.3 33T,7 121.5 .212.2 140.2 1.6 0 70.4
Apr.-June: 308.6 --- -- 308.6 224.9 115.8 109.19/87.2 21.9 0 0
JULY-JUTE: 100.1 1,153.0 4/ 1,253.1 1,1 9.3 4oo.7 76S.6 491.6 86.5 0 190.5


19147-48- ,/
July-Sept: 83.8 1,364.9 ---1, 48.7 320;'7 140.7 180.05-32.5 29.0 .2 18.3
Oct.-Dec.:1,128.0 -- -- 1,128,0 331.4 116.2 215.2 135.9 38.9 .4 40o.
Jan.-Mar.: 796.6 796.6 317,0 118.6 193.4 113.4 1.6 0 83.4
Apr.-June: 479.6 -- --- 479.6 23,39 14.0 169.9 110.1 21.9 .1 37.8
JULY-JUNE: 83.8 1,364.9 4/ 1,448.7 1,253.0 489.5 763.5 491.9 91.4 .7 179.5


July-Sept: 195.7 1,283.8 --- 1,479.5 337.4 -- -- -- --
Oct.-Dec.:1,142.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -


1/ 19h2-44 in The Wheat Situation, March-.tpril l148, page 2.
2/ Exports July 1_ 1945 to date revised to include semolina, and macaroni and
related products, thereby reducing the quantity si.own for domestic food.
3/ R sidual.
SLess than 50,000 bushels.
S7.2 million bushels estimated as in process from 1947 crop wheat included in
figure for July-Seotember 1947.
6/ PreLiminary.





W S 108


- 21 -


S Table 11.- Destination of world exports of grain and grain products, /
1-946-47 and 1947-1948


Countries of
destination



1946-47.
European
Caribbean & Latin America
African
Asiatic & Pacific
Misc. or others
All countries


S !heat 2 : R: : Coarse 3/ tbtal
: ___ .rains :
Thou : 'ou s. Thous. : Thous.
long tons : long tons long tons : long tons


13,77 23/ : 4,893 : 18,505
2,22, : 7 170 2,462
S 309 : 23 433 812
: 3,937 11 1,743 5,741
: 393 : 42 :53" : 969
20, 52 314 7, ?23 28,489


1947-48
Europern 17,C41 1,234 : ,438 25,513
Caribbean & Latin America 1,707 : 15. 1,359
African 79 : -- : 14 37
Asiatic & Latin rAmeric 4,016 9 1,330 5,355
Misc. or others : 519 : 3 :393 943
All countries : 24,7. : 1,27) : 3,4.1 : 3 612

From official sources and from recor-.' of th,: International Enci enc;' Food CQnmitte(
l/ Excludes rice.
/ Includes flour
2' Includes corn, barley, or ts, and grain sorghrnis.


CORRLCTIO!';. to "The Agricultural Act of 1943"
In the August iss-e o The heatt Situation

Page 24, footnote 6, first sentence should read:
This inolies that thu 1950 or long-tinc orovi-
sion's of tlhe- ;.ct of 19.I apply to tii 1950
narl:uktnr quotas.

Page 26, last line: ...until the transitional
parity price has b'--e r-duccd to '.he new
parity price.

Page 31, footnote 5, l-st line: ... at a higher
level may oc unidertciktil Vh-en n,-ce.ss.ar. in the
interest of national securit-.





UN a@ i er Xf LLZF.
Washington 25, D. C.

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

BAE-WS-108-12/48-5500
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