Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00010

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Full Text



6Mar'4A


FOR RELEASE
FEB. 21, A. M.


SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

S-104 JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1948




RYE AND RICE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE



WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF REPORTED CASH SALES OF NO 2 HARD WINTER WHEAT AT
KANSAS CITY AND REPORTED COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION PURCHASES OF WHEAT
AND FLOUR GRAIN EQUIVALENTi DAILY JULY' 1946-DECEMBER 1947

I| |.. ..


I 'i 1.. if 9 : 1 i .. .I ,, ;
JULI AIJG SEPT CCT N DEC IAr N E MJF a-P Fr, J'J i .''J I-_ "1
194 I1ji '
t ~i F.A F. j-j "^Lt 6 ii"": .' *:.. : :*' a i .iar* *'* .-a. -


Despite record crops, wheat prices have Increased in
the past few years because of the very large export demand,
above-normal demand within the United States, and a rise in
the general price level. In ,1947-48 wheat prices have been
strengthened because corn supplies have been too small to
provide substantial exports Inadditlon to feed requirements.
Exports of corn and corn products October 1947 to September
1948 are expected to total only about 10 million bushels
compared with 131 million bushels a year earlier. Wheat for
export has been purchased largely by the Commodity Credit
Corporation, while over half of the flour for export has
been purchased by the commercial trade.
Among the factors contributing to price changes since
I. July I, 1946 (numbers refer to numbers on chart) are the fol-
.;i:... Iow Ing:
iISZtYear. (1) Adjustment of price to 1946 new-
crop supplies. (2) Price effect of record crop offset by
large demand; CCC purchases heavy: transportation inadequate
and supplies inmarket centers small. (3) Car shortage acute.
(4) Coal cars, made available by coal strike, used to re-
lieve shortage. (5) Terminal supplies small: export demand
rge; some price bearishness from high winter wheat fore-
4{.i s


:: : 4


ii- *.... Li


cast: January CCC purchases heavy. (6) Effect of huge ex-
port demand on supplies recognized: export program expanded
as winter wheat prospects continued excellent: CCC purchases
insignificant. (7) General reaction to sharp advance: CCC
purchases mostly nominal. (8) Good demand for limited
remaining supplies. (9) Seasonal decline to within 8 cents
of loan level on July 7: CCC purchases heai.
SIZ. iB Yeas.- (101 Increased buying by mills and ele-
vators in face of limited market Supplies, small corn crop
reported July 10: (ll) Market receipts generally adequate to
take care of demand: CCC purchases heavy. (12) Corn crop
prospects continue poor: Canadian crop deteriorated: Conser-
vation Program interpreted as indicating urgency of maximum
exports: purchases for export July-October seasonally heavy.
(13) Announcement that CCC purchases exceeded July-December
quota by 57 million bushels: feed estimate for year reduced.
II4) Large export needs re-emphasized: lowcarry-over feared.
15) Carry-over July I., 1948 set by law at a minimum of 150
million bushels: winter wheat report December 18 higher than
generally expected: with light wheat feeding reported,
exports of 450 million bushels still probable.


THE


CENTS
PER
BUSmE Lj


W


u IT EI ni)IN E o ..'.. u .












lBo G6t l4e *20' HD0o a d 'f f ea 2f 0 tf 40" 60 atd 100' 12d' 4* Hid6' i o













































lao" 6o" 80m" lo ao" so" 06 4 o" 0 0 o g o 40 eo BO 10 6Oo 1 2 o 40 o 160 160
AFRICAE NEG 970 OFFICE OF FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL RELATIONS







AUSTRALIA

WORLD
WHEAT PRODUCTION AR
States the next lAV.195-39 In 197, tWHEAT PRODUCTION ewar, produc39ond 1947) in Canada is slightly larger,

C.UNITED STATES- "NA'-, -- -

Each dot represents CANADA -----
1,000,000 bushe/S AUSTRALIA- .. .
ITALY ....... 1947
ARGENTINA. 1935-59


480* 560" 140. 120 Ioo" 80" 60 40" RO* 0* E0 40 60* 8 100' ~idO' 140' Ise 180'
U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 970 OFFICE OF FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL RELATIONS


Although wheat production is world-wide, production for in Soviet Russia that little wheat is exported; and China
export is concentrated in a few areas. Before the war Sov- usually has to import grain. The United States, Canada, Ar-
let Russia wasthelargest producer with China and the United gentina and Australia are the important exporters. Compared
States the next largest. In 1947, the United States was by with prewar, production iT1947 in Canada is slightly larger,
far the largest producer. Normally, consumption is so large in Australia considerably larger, and in Argentina smaller.




WS-104


S.: ': H E WHEAT S I T U A T ION
.- *- -Inolud.ing Rye and Rice "

Arprovr. by the Outlook and Situation Board, Februnry 13, 1948

SU '.AR Y

Wheat prices broke sharply on February 4. From February 3 through Febru-
ary 13 cash prices.at Kansas City and Minneapolis d6dlin6d over 55 cents. This
break followed a' decline of' about 19 cents betweeniJanuary 16 and February 3.
Among the factors which contributed to the ,slump are: ...(1) Prices had advanced too
far in view of the large supply still remaining and the fact that export purchases
were largely out of the way. (2) Carry-over is set by law at a minimum, of 150 mil-
lion bushels. (3) *Feedi'ng'of wheat is lighter than expected (4) Market.receipts
of corn were much larger and feed prices continued very high in relation to prices
of livestock and' livestock products (5) Weather th..-ugh January was favorable for
the winter wheaticrop in the United States. (6) Marked improvement in crop pro-
spects was reported for most importing countries.

The latest estimates ori-wheat give the following picture: On January 1,
795 million bushels were on hand, out -of the 1947-48 supply of 1,449 million bushels,
This indicates that 654 million bushels disappeared during the 'Ju'ly-December period.
Two hundred fifty-eight million -bushels were exported. Domestic uses included about
265 million bushels for food, 65 million for seed, 65 million for feed, and 1 million
for industrial use.

.For the period from January 1, to June 30, 1948, we have this situation:
Of the 795 million bushels on hand at the beginning of the year, about 245 million
bushels are expected t6:be used for food and about 25 million for seed. .Feed use
is more difficult to-e'st'imate but probably will range between 125 and 175 million
bushels. The Third Supplemental Appropriation" Act of 1948 requires'that t.ie carry-
over next July 1 be at least 150 million bushels. Assu T:in, the above estimates of
domestic disappearance, this would leave between 450 million and' 500 million bushels
for the total year-s experts,. .." '". ""..."'

Commodity Credit Corporation purchases,, of -wheat and flour (wheat.equiva.leunt)
from July 1 to December 31 plus its stocks ':*fJuly-1, 1947 tottVTle:.ar ` r6.E276.n.iUflYon
bushels. Ap-:roxim[tely 68 million more ha"-b'een purche'd"by' dmeria'l"'concesn
for export through January bringing tQtal Cr-chases by Pecember .31 to 44. million
bushels or 86 ri1l ion bushels more .thna -the quantify. exported .in:the J4ly-December
period." The total t6 February '5' rchi}'d bythe CCC. plus purchases by commercial
concerns for export through Febfi.ry a'pun'ie-! to 37'7.million bushels, leaving:only
73 million to be bought, chiefly-by 'the -CC,,to' carry out* the 450 million-bushel
export program. Additional wheat, must be-purchased beforee July. l,for e::.ort after
that date, ralthouh some of it will come .fr.7m the new crop. :

The total-area sown to Winter grains in. Europe for harvest in 1t9 probably
was larger than in the ast two years. In most .areas, the dr.'1urht of the past sum-
mer continued into the Fall With only scattered rains. After ri-~':..-.ner, however,
rains were general over most of Europe and mild weather enabled farmers to seed
later than usual -.-- ...-. ....

Australiar has just-l produi'ied the 1' r r4t r }-.*-,t crop in its historyr. Th'e.: ttes+
official report set the crop at 228 million bushels, '112 million bushels larger than
the poor crop of last year. Although the acreage seeded to wheat in Argentina is the
smallest since 1904. The crop may be at least as large as the 206 million bushels
produced in 1947#
(For release February 21, a.m.)


- 3 -




JAMUAW-EBRUARY 1948


yeo atocko on January 1 were 14,4 million buchols compared with 8,5 million
buchola a year earlier. In apite of larcor oupplos,pricoos received by groworo
from July to January averaged 43 conto above the cane period in 1946-47. Total
disappearance of ryo in July-Docombor thio year wao 13.6 million bushels conparod
with 14.0 million a year ago.

OutotandinG In the rice situation lc the current heavy export donand and
proopoets that it will continue In 1948-49. Rice price In the last half of 1947
were the hihooest In history except in 1919 and 1920. Dooottic food conaumption
in tho current year is above a year aGo but still below proewr lovelo.

THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND. Record wheat crops were produced In the United Statoo
in each of the lact four years. Bccuaco of unusually larCo world
donand for broad Grains, however, It waa posciblo to novc the ox-
coca over dosuctic roquircoents and reduce the carry-over to vory
low levels, 1/

In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in Continental Unlted States
avoraGed 982 million bucholo conolstinG of carry-over old wheat, 235;
production, 738; and Itporto for doeostic uose, 9, Total disappoaranco
avoraiod 721, conolotinM of food, 475; food, 122; aced, 81; export
and ohipmonto, 43.

Wheat price oo to Growero advanced from an average of 68 conto
per buohole in 1940-41 to a record hich of $2.81 in aid-January 1948.
Unit1 1943-44, the loan program woo the noot important factor in do-.
nectic wheat prices. BoGinning in that year, however, heavy oexpt
buyinG of wheat rooultiln from war and postwar condition hao been
the chief price factor. However, donootic uao also has been above
avorace. The 1947-48 pricooes reflect the reduction in supplies ct
food Graino, the additional export demand rooulting from the lack of
corn and other Vraino for expct,, and the rico in the coneral price
level.
Stocks of Whoat on January 1,, 1948 Iarco;
D sparanco July-Doconber Near =cord

Stocks of wheat in all positions on January 1 totaled 795 million bushel
out of nearly 1,449 million bushels on hand July 1, 1947, the beginning of the -
narkotlnM year. Although January 1 otocks are inallor than those in each year fran
1942 to 1945, they are lar3cr than any other January 1 of record,

Stocks on January 1 (table 1) consist of 427 million bushels on farms,
112 million at norchant mills and 111 million in Interior nilla, elevators and
warehouseso, 142 million coimorclal stocks at terminals and 3 million busholo In
transit owond by Comodity Credit Corporation. Other CCC-owned wheat Ia Included
in the other oatimatooes. No ootIViato Io made for other wheat in transit.

STiWheat supply ana distribution 1909-47 condensed and 1930-47 in detail in The
Wheat Situation for Septombor-Decembcr 1947, paGoo 11 and 12. (Flauros for T17-49
"eaosed in this current Isscue,)


- 4 -





VS-104


- 5 -


Disappearance front July 1 to December 31, 1947 to cctinated at about
654 millionn bushels. This exceeds disappearance In any other July-Dccoubcr
except 1945 when 705 million bushels wore used. Disappearance in the Octobcr-
Dcccbecr quarter mac 327 million bushels, copparod with 307 million In the
caic pcricd of 1946 and 338 million bushels In 1945, Disappearance has boon
bclow 300 million bushels in the last quarter of all other years.

Of the 654 rillion-busholo disappearance in July-Dccenbcr 1947, the
proli-iinary estimato of food uso to about 265 million bushels, rxport3 258 nil-
lion, scod 65 nf.1.'.l.n, and .induotrial uso o million. This Indicateo that about
65 million bushels were fed 2/, nuch less than was expected earlier in the
uarkcting year,

Export Projran of 450 Million Bushels
I.fy be Sxcocdod

In January-Junc 1948 it to cotimated that 245 million bushels 3/ of what
will be uscd for food and about 25 million bushels for cCed. If carry-over next
July 1 Is down to 150 million busoolo, the ninium required by law 4/, about
375 million bucheol will be available for feed and export in January-Juneo Feed
ucc is difficult to estimate but is expected to be between 125 million and
175 million bushols. This would leave from 200 million to 250 million bushels
for export and would bring the total for the year to between about 450 million
and 500 million bushols, Theco estinatco assume that prospects for the 1948 crop
will not dotorlorato to any extent

Eotimntcc of disappearance for the first half of the marketing year and
prozpccts for the second half indicate that the 1947-48 wheat supply will be
distributed about as follows (in million bushels): food, 510; oced, 90; food,
190 to 240; industrial use, 1; exports and carry-over, approxlzatoly 610 to 660.

During the last five years, an average of about 130 million bushels of
daneotic wheat was fed in January-Juno, Feeding in Januar-I larch vas about
twico as heavy as in April-Juno, Other factors ei=h will influence the fccdinG
of what in January-Juno include the relationships c:onj what, corn, livestock
and poultry prices, the severity of the winter, the quantity and distribution of
remaininG stocks of wheat and feeood rains, condition of spring pcsture., and the
earliness of maturity of now rain crops.


2/ Food is calculated as the residual after deducting ostinates of other itens
of distribution. At best it is a rough approximation for food, since it i--ludco
quantities wasted and net errors of ostiatoes and of computations.
3/ In the last two years, with largc flour exports, flour remaining for donostic
use from the total Crind in January-June has been substantially less than in the
preceding six nontlic,
4/ Provision in the Third Supplemeontal Appropriation Act of 1948.




JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1948


Wheat Prices Sharply Lower:
Winter Crop Prospects Continue Favorable

Wheat prices broke sharply February 4.' From February 3 through 13, cash
prices at Kansas City and Minneapolis declined over 55 cents. This break
followed a decline of about 19 cents between January 16 and February 3. Among
the factors which contributed to the slump are:' (1) Prices had advanced too
far in view of the large supply still remaining and the fact that export pur-
chases were largely out. of the way. (2) Carry-over is set by law at a minimum
of 150 million bushels. .(3) Feeding of wheat is lighter than expected.
(4) Market receipts of corn were much larger and-feed prices continued very
high in relation to prices of livestock and livestock products. (5) Marked
improvement in crop prospects was. reported for most importing countries.
(6) Weather through January was favorable for the winter wheat crop. While
temperatures have been low, the wheat plants have generally been protected by
snow. Moreover, rains over wide areas occurred just before the freeze. The
additional moisture helped protect the crop.

Through December 31, Commodity Credit Corporation purchases of wheat and
flour in terms of wheat plus the July 1, 1947 stocks totaled about 276 million
bushels. Approximately 68 million 5/ more had been purchased by commercial
concerns for .export through January, bringing total, purchases by December 31
to 344 million bushels, or 86 million bushels more than the quantity exported.
in the July-December period.

Commodity Credit Corporation purchases July 1 to February 5 plus stocks
last July 1 totaled about 303 million bushels. Approximately 75 million had
been purchased for export by commercial concerns. This brought the total to
377 million bushels, and left the CCC and commercial concerns only 73 million
to carry-out the 450 million-bushel export program. A ditional purchases will
be made before July 1 for export after that date, although some of it will
come from the new crop. In addition it is possible that .exports may exceed
the 450 million-bushel program.

After buying very little for several weeks, the CCC resumed purchases on
a moderate scale in mid-January. The wheat was obtained with little difficulty,
even though sales by growers had not increased much since the beginning of the
new tax year.

Loans on wheat outstanding on December 31, 1947 totaled only-20.8 million
bushels. A total of .29.6 million bushels had been placed under loan but loans
on 8.8 million bushels had been repaid by December 31.

THE WORD WHEAT SITUATIONS

BACIEROUND: On July 1, 1943, stocks In the four principal
exporting countries were a record of 1,740 million bushels.: By.
July 1945, however, they were down to 824 million bushels. In
1946 they were 386 million and in 1947 were 379 million. Greatly
increased disappearance was caused by an accumulated demand brought
on by the war and by poor crops in Southern Hemisphere countries and
elsewhere. Stocks on July 1, 1947 were the smallest since 1938, and
about 20 percent less than the 1935-39 average of 458 million bushels.


5/ This assumes that none of the February program announced December 27 had
been purchased by December 31. Includes 1.8 million bushels of shipments to
U.S. Territories.


- 6 -







Increase n European Acreage Probable;
late Pains and Mild Winter Favorable

Althoug.i official estimates from all countries are not available, in-
formation received indicator that the total area own to winter grains in
Europe for harvest during 1948 probably is larger thsa that of the past two
years. In most areas, the drought of the past su aer continued into the fall,
with only scattered rains. Since midBorvember, rains, which promoted favorable
crop development, have been general over most of Europe and mild weather has
enabled seeding to be continued later than usual.

The mild weather and rainfall in France have been especially beneficial
and prospects there are reported to have improved considerably. The total
area sown to winter grain in that country on January 1 is officially estimated
at 13.2 million acres, compared with the 12.1 million acres a year earlier..
Weather has been favorable in contrast with the severe winter of 1946-47
when wheat acreage lost through winter kill in France was reported at about
3.7 million acres. Improved prospects are also reported in the United King-
dom and Scandinavia because of rains.

In Sweden, seedings of both wheat and rye are larger than in the fall
of 1946, with the combined acreage about 25 percent larger than a year ago.
Denmark's acreage seeded to fall rye is substantially larger than that of a
year ago, more than offsetting a reduction in winter wheat acreage. The con-
dition of winter crops also is much more favorable than a year ago when about
two-thirds of tae winter wheat acreage was reported lost through winter kill.

In the Mediterranean region, Italy and Turkey are reported to have seeded
increased acreages under favorable conditions, and the weather continued good
during November and December. It is also reported that abundant rains recently
relieved the drought in parts of the important producing areas of North
Africa, and somewhat larger acreages are expected there.

Generally favorable conditions are reported for Poland, where the
acreage seeded to grain was increased. Over much of central Europe, the fall
season was backward and moisture supplies generally inadequate for land pre-
paration, seeding and germination of fall-sown grains. The greatest delay
was reported in Austria and parts of Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary.
The extent to which rains during the past two months may have improved pro-
spects in this area is not yet known.

Fall moisture conditions have been favorable in the U.S.S.R. and south-
eastern Europe, particularly in the lower Danube. Seeding apparently has
progressed satisfactorily and increased acreages are reported for those areas.

Fall Precipitation in Canadian Provinces
141 Percent of Normal

Precipitation in the Prairie Projinces of Canada in August-October,
weighted on the basis of acreage, is reported at 141 percent of normal, and
was fairly evenly distributed. It was 151 percent of normal in Alberta, 139
percent in Saskatchewan, and 121 percent in Manitoba. Rains between harvest
and the time the ground freezes are a valuable reserve for the next crop.


ws-16


- 7 -




JANUARY-FEB IURY 1948


Australia's Wheat Crop a Record

Austr.;lia's wheat production in .19.7. Is 'official-y 'estimated at 2239
million bushels. This i the lares', crop on record and 112 j.illion bus.ela,
or 96 .urcei laraer-+han th'e .small 196"'harvaet.' However, it is somewhat
less than eat'ly:-sec'.-. for6cas',s because'of unfavorable ripening condiTions,
severe outbreaks of- rhts and- damage by vind ') ail and tGin.

Australia-s .has d. 'onlj three "'r6j abov.a 200 million bus.iels. bb:ut. 214
million bushels- were produced' in both 3.930 .nd 1932 and 210 lion buo'.els
ln 1939. Handling a crop of-the .volt, reported for this'season presents
many problems because of shortages of harvest t-achiinery, labor, storage and
ranspor. facilities'. : "

Growing cbnditionb were.:reported' exceptionally.fa.' or-ble' until .mia-
October when, u.ifa.orE.ble weather bbegan.- Followintg t'at-tlH', widespread rains
in some-States caceeG-dama.e, especially ft'm rust and-'Tungus"disease. Ex-
cessive raihfal&l, also caused lodgia'i of grain and delayjrdnarveasts.. Reports
state'that' a -consi.derable amount of grain in-the eastern States will be below
standard, "

If the' wheat harvest is as large oas forec,":, a'ooul45 million busnels
is expected to be available .for-export; About 60 million bushels would be
used domestically, of which about-35 million wouid be fed to livestock ai.d-
pobultry. In addition about .20 million bushels-are expected to-be retained'
on farms. .... .......

By mid-December, the export price of wheat increased to $3.13 (U.S.
currency) per bushel, bulk, f.o.b,..mai'ports;- This reflects "higher prices
on the world market. The price of baeged wheat :rose to $3.26' per bushel.

Argentina Wheat Crop About Same as last Yea;
Acreage Smallest Since j .

The outturn from the Argentine wheat -harvest -just compFleted will'be
larger 'than was expected earlier, 'according to'recen-t ropoi'tsQ "The' fj.rit of-"
ficial forecast of the crop, usually publillhed-early 'in Locember, -has not ye't
beeh"rel,-ased,': Current .indJcations) however; are that the crop m- ai beat'
leastas 'large as -last year's production f. 206 million bushels. '"

According to the final estimate, the acreage seeded t'o'whCat 'thn' yea
was 13,641,000 acrea, the smallest recorded since 1904. The bonus to be paid
producers* for.deliver J6s *of wheat from tne current crog before July-31, was
annouviacd tco'late in the- beason.t.6d provide',anr- incentive to increase the '
.acrese ee.je'd. .Incre.aed;arvesting costsare said t6':largely offdet t.';
increase in price paid to producers. The price paid for deliveries up to
July 31, 1948 has been set at $1.62 per bAsie-l, bapjed, on trdck' at 'Bueno*
Aires, deliveries after that date at $1.46 per bushel ccmpared.w.th-.last
year's price of $1.38 for the first 11,000 tons delive-:ed..
U. S. eat exports A ain Cver 'iTlf' o World Ti:al ...
vWieat Exports larger to. Cffset Peductio.- in Corn' Exporto .. -'

World,trade in wnedt and lourr (in' grain e.ptvaer.t) in 1947-4i is now.
expected to total between -0oO million and 930 million bushels The United.
States will again contribute over half of the total, Exports from Canada
may approximate 200 million and those from Argentina *and Australia about.
90 million each. E::-c.rts from other countries, including Soviet Russia may
total about ,0 million.


- 8 -






If -the U. S. exports 500 million bushels of wheat and flour (in grain
equivalent) and 70 million bushels of other :grains in 1947-48, exports would
be about 2 .percent above the tonnage in 1946-47. This year, exports of wheat
and flour will be substantiallyy larger than'the 400-million bushels exported
last year and. will offset reduced exports: of corn.

While supplies 6f Wheat available for export are somewhat above prewar,
thed.need for bread gricns in importing countries is far greater. Due to winter
kill.followed. by summer drought, bread grain production in.western urope this
year"fell more thn.5. million:iong tpnesbelo~,the 1946 level and about 10 mil-
lion"tons below prewar. :Conse4uentlyj: considerably .larger imports are needed
to maintain rations in western Europe at last year's relatively low level.
The quantities needed are likely to exceed those available from all sources.
As a result, the bread ration in France, the Netherlands and' other areas
has been reduced.

Exports of .heat. and flour from the United States by countries of
destination in 1946-47 and July-December 1947 compared with 1937-38 and. 1938-39
are shown in table .6, United States exports of wheat and flour, together with
exports of other grains, by countries of destination, July-December 1947 com-
pared with 1946-47 are shown in table 8.

THEERYE SITUATION

1947-48 Rye Supplies and Prices
Above Year Earlier -

Total rye supplies for 1947-48, including July 1, 1947 stocks of 2.4
million bushels and a crop of 26.0 millions, are 28.4 million bushels. On
January 1, stocks in all positions totaled 14.4 million bushels while total
disappearanc- for..July-December was 14.0 million bushels. Exports during the
half year were. 16 millions. Domestic disappearance.was 12.4 million. bushels
of which it is estimated that 2.9 millions were used forfood, 3.2 millions
for feed, 4.4 millions for seed and 1.9 millions for alcohol and spirits.

Total supplies'in 1946-47:were 22.8 million bushel., including July 1
stocks of 2.3 millions,. production of 18.9 millions and import of 1,6 millions,
of which 0.9 million were imported in July-December. Items of disappearance
during July-December 1946 (in million bushels) were: food,.2.9; feed, 4.7.;
seed,*4.4;alcohol and spirits, 1.4.; and exports, 0.2. This left stocks of 8.5
million bushels on January 1, 1947. Total disappearance for 1946-47: (in million
bushels) was: food, 5.5; feed, 5.5; seed,4.7; alcohol and spirits, 4.2; exports,
0.6. *This' left cerry-over of. 2.3 million. bushels on July 1, 1947. (table. .9).

Although rye supplies are materially larger .han in 1946-47, pricess have
been sharply higher. U. S. mid-mon.th prices to, grcrers for July-January averaged
43 cents higher than in. the same period a. year .earliep. In mid-January, the
United States price to growers was $2.47,. the highest, in history except in March
and September-INovember 1947, (table. 11) As in. the case of wheat, rye prices
dropped sharply between February 3 and. 1 .

Rye Acreage About the Same;
Condition Poorer

The acreage of rye shown fcr'a31 purposes 'last fall for the 1948 crop is
estimated at 3,726,000 acres, only slightly above the 3,709,CCO acres seeded a
ear earlier. Ccnrditior on Decc:.ber i was reported at 86 percent, 6 points
elow a year axrler. The 1r.dicated acreLce is little more than half of the
1936-45 -average cr 5,945,000 acres.


WS-104


-.. 9 9- -





JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1948


- 10 -


Table 1. Wheat: Stocks in the United States on January 1,
1942-48 /

Stocks position 1942 1943 1944 : 1945 1946 : 1947 : 1948
,ooo T-Tooo 1, 0 0-0-,000 17,ooo 1-,00o00 100oo
:bushels bushels bushels bushels' bushels bushels -bushels
Farm ............. :371,775 484,754 382,351 384638 361 9311 365,794 427,620
Interior mills, eleva-:
tors, and warehouses:271l708 258,124 145,454 160'432 108,776 1X19044 110f796
Terminals *(oonmercial) :270855 2415 10 186,264 152a043 102,131' 56tE56 141C889
Merchant mills- and- I
mill elevators .....:135,601 139,385 112,130 114,387 5,276 96P779 111,730
Comnodity Credit Corp.;
wheat in transit and:
in steel and wood
bins ......,......... --- 45,0QQQ 41,400 16,847 14,778 4,404- 3,100
Total ....:999,919 1,152,414 817,599 828,347 681,992 642,277 795,135


Commercial stocks at terminals are reported by the Production and Marketing Administ
tration. Commodity Credit wheat in their steel and wooden bins and in transit are
reported by the Commodity Credit Corporation. Stocks in the other three positions
are estimated by the Crop Reporting Board.
l Table includes revisions in farm stocks beginning with 1940. Total .stocks Jan.. 1
1940-1942 in thousand bushels are as follows: 606,013; 723,776; .999,919., Figures
in the table include quantities owned by the Government or still outstanding under
Government loan.

Table.2. Wheat: Weighted average cash price: specified markets
____ and gates, 1946-48
:A11 classes: T 2 : No. 1 : No. 2 : No* 2 : Soft
Month :and grades : Hard : Dark : Hard : Red : White
and :six-markets: Winter : N. Spring :Amber Durum: Winter : Portland
date : :Kansas City:linneapolis:linneapolis:St. Louis : 2/
:-- 1946-14 t77 -.s1946-:1947-:T-94-':1 7-: 1946-:1947-:T96-: 947- 194-6- :1947-"
:1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948
Months: :


Dec.
Jan.
Week
ended
Dee. 20
27
Jan. 3
10
17
24
31
Feb. 7


4$2.17 $3.11.$2.0 $83.01 #226 $3.36 $2.29 $3.11 $2,.2 S3,09 $1.89 $2,87
: 2.18 :3.15 2.09 3.03 2.25 3.20 2.24 3.19 2.33 3.12 1,88 2,85
: "


2.23 ,3.10
2.15 3.07
2..15 .3.05
2.20 3.12
2..19 3-.2-1
2.14 3..15:
2.18. 3,.10
2.22 2.91


2.11
2.06
2.05
2. 08.
2.10
2.09.
2.11-
2.17


3.02
3.00
2. 95
2.97
.3.10:
3.04
2.97,
2.82


2.37
2.23
S2.24
2..29
2.27
. 2'19'
2.24
2.26


3.14
3.12
3.10
'3.5 15
3.27
*3. -19
-3.16
2.94


2.32 3.10
2.29 3.07
2.29 3.08
2.29 3.15
2.25 3.24'
*2.18 3..19"
2.17' 3.1-8
2.18 2.990


2.34 3.15
2.35 3.08
2.26 3.04
2.37 3.06
2.39 3.18
2,25 3.10
2.26 3.04
2.34 2.94


1.88
1.89
1.89
1.89
1.88
1.87
1.88
1.91


2.92
2.80
2.79
2.81
2.88.
2,90
2.83
2.58


_/ Beginning July 9, 1947 sales of hard and dark hard winter combined.
_/ Average of daily cash quotations.


I





Table 3.-Average price per bushel of wheat received by farmers,
United States, 1909-47 l/
Year : : : : : : : : : : :Crop
egin-:July :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Nov. :rec. :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. : May :June :year
ning : 15 : 15 :15 : 15: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 :15 : 15 :.15 :aver-
.July : age: .. : : e
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

909 :114.0 101.2 94.9 97.2 99.2 101.0 104.2 105.0 104.8 102.2 98.8 96.4 99.1
:910 : 97.1 97.4 94,8 92.1 89.4 88.4 89,2 87.6 84.6 84.2 85.4 85.3 90.8
.911 : 33.5 83.8 86.6 90.0 89.4 87.7 89.2 90.6 91.6 96.1 101.2 100.9 86.9
.912 : 94.4 7.8 84.6 83.6 79.9 76.1 78.0 80.2 79.8 80.0 81.8 .82.0 80.7
913 : 79.2 77.1 77.5 77.4 78.4 80.4 81.3 32.4 83.6 84.0 84.2 .80.6 79.4
.91 : 76.7 84.9 93.4 95.4 97.9 103.2 118.8 131.8 132.6 135.6 135.6 117.2 97.4
.915 :104.6 100.8 93.0 92,0 92.5 97.4 108,4 108.4 100.8 100.6 101.2 :96.5 96.1
.916 :100.0 119.2 133,9 147.4 159.4 155.3 157,6 164.6 172.2 213.0 247.2 234.3 143.4
.937 :224.5 219.3 205.2 200.3 200.4 201.4 201.6 202.0 202.6 203.1 203.0 202.8 204.7
.91q :203.7 205.0 205,7 205.9 205.1 204.5 206,2 207.8 211.1 222.6 229.8 225.2 205.0
.919 :219.6 211.4 207.6 211.4 214.0 223.4 233.8 231.2 230.3 242.6 250.8 256.0 216.3
-920 :242.9 225.4 216.5 201.2 165.8 146.4 149.2 148.2 140.4 122.1 119.0 119.8 182.6
L921 :103.5 103.0 103.4 99.9 93.4 93.0 95.2 107.0 117.0 119.0 118.8 109.6 103.0
L922 : 99.3 92.6 89.2 94.1 99.4 103.2 104.6 104.4 106.0 108.4 108.2 100.8 96.6
L923 : 89.6 86.' 91.0 94.2 93.7 94.5 96.7 93.0 98.8 95.8 96.8 98.5 92.6
L924 :105.3 116.8 114.2 129.7 133.6 141.1 162.0 169.8 164.0 140.5 149.1 152.7 124.7
L25 :120.3 150.4 144.4 136.4 148.8 153.7 158.1 155.5 146.0 142.2 142.1 138.9 143.7
t926 :127.7 125.1 117.7 121.4 123.6 122.8 122.2 122.8 120.9 117.2 123.2 130.1 121.7
L927 :127.3 123.5 119.2 113.7 111.4 113.9 115.2 116.2 121.6 129.2 144.3 132.0 119.0
L929 :113.1 95.2 94.4 98.7 97.1 98.2 98.5 104.2 104.7 99.8 90.1 86.8 99.8
L929 :101.6 110.0 111.4 110.7 102.8 107.3 107.5 101.3 91.9 93.4 87.5 87.9 103.6

L930 : 70.6 74.0 70.3 65.6 60.0 61.3 59.1 58:.7 -58.3 59.2 59.9 51.9 67.1
1'931 : 36.3 35.4 35.7 36.1 50.5 44.1 44.1 44.0 44.2 43.1 42.4 37.3 39.0
L932 : 35.6 38.5 37.4 34.6 32.8 31.6 32.9 32.3 34.5 44.8 59.0 58.7 38.2
L933 : 86.9 74.7 71.1 63.6 71.1- 67.3 69.4 72.0 70.9 68.7 69.5 78.9 74.4
1934 : 7.8 89,6 92.2 88.5 88.1 90.6 89.3 87.9 85.5 90.2 87.8 77.3 84.8
IL935 : 76.4 80.8 85.1 94.8 87.5 88.9 92.0 91.1 89.3 85.4 81.6 79.9 83.2
1936 : 94.1 104.8 104.3 106.8 106.4 114.5 123.6 124.9 123.2 126.6 118.3 108.9 102.5
!L937-..*112.8 99%4 93.0 88.7- 81.9 83.6 88.6 86.6 80.3 75.0 71.4' 69.7 -96.2
L938 : 60.8 50,7 52.5 52.2 52.0 53.6 57.1 56.9 56.7 57.8 63.0 62.52/56.2
1939 : 95.7 54.5 72.7 70.3 73.1 82.4 84.5 84.1 85.0 88.9 80.7 67.4 69.1
1940 : 61.4 6041 62.6 68.2. 72.5 71.5 73.0 67.8 71.8 76.0 79.4 83.1 68.2
1941 : 85.6 88.5 95.8 91.0 93.4 102.2 106.1 104.9 105.1 99.7 99.8 95.7 94.5
1942 : 94.6 95.4 102.8 103.5 104.4 110.3 117.5 119.5 122.7 122.3 122.8 124.0 109.8
19L3 :126.0 127.0 130.0 135.0 137.0 143.0 146.0 146.0 146.0'147.0 147.0 143.0 136.0
11944 :139.0 135.0 135.0 142.0 143.0 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 150.0 141.0
1945 :146.0 145.0 145.0 151.0 153.0 154.0 154.0 155.0 158.0 158.0 170.0 174.0 150.0
1946 :187.0 173.0 179.0 188.0 189.0 192.0 191.0 199.0 244.0 240.0 239.0 218.0 191.0
1947 :214.0 210.0 243.0 266.0 274.0 279;0 281.0 .*

.1 Monthly prices by States weighted by production to obtain a price for the U. S.;
average for year obtained by weighting State price averages for the Marketing year.
2/ Beginning 1-)3i includes unredeemed loans at average loan value.


- 11 -


WS-10 4




-JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1948


- 12 -


Table 4.-Wheat: Average closing prices of May wheat futures, specified
markets and dates, 1946 1948


Pi : Chicago o8:
Period : 1946-47 : 1947-48


Month:
Dec.
Jan.


Week ended :
Dec. 20 :
27 :
Jan. 3
10
17
24
31 .
Feb. 7


$1.93
1.95


1.93
1.93
1.93
1.94
1.96
1.94
1.97
2.03


$2.97
2.96


2.98
2.94
2.94
2.95
3.04
2.97
2.89
2.71


Kansas City : Minneapolis
1946-47 1947-48 1946-47 : 1947-48


$1.86
1.88


1.86
1.86
1.86
1.89
1.89
1.86
1.89
1.96


$2.87
2.85


2.87
2.85
2.84
2.84
2.93
2.85
2.78
2.60


$1.91
1.93

1.92
1.91
1.92
1.92
1.93
1.91
1.95
2.01


$2.91
2.91


2.92
2.90
2.89
2.90 1
2.99
2.92
2.86
2.67


Table 5.-Uheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries, Friday
nearest midmonth, and weekly December-1947-February 1948

: HARD WHEAT : HARDl WHET : SOFT WEEAT
United States : Canada :United States:United States:Aus-
Date :No. 1 H.D.N. Sp. :No. 3-Canadian:: o. 1 D.H.W.: No. 1 *:tralia
(Friday) ,:13 pet. protein : 1o. Spg. at : Galveston : Portland :
at Duluth :Fort Willianza 1/ : I/ : _
___ ___ __ 2/ : ~ __ :___ ';. :


Friday midmonth :
Dec. 12
"Jan. 16 :

SWeekly


$3 14
3.23


$3.28
3.32


$3.155
3.19


$2.92
2.91


Dec. 26 : 3.08 3.17 3.06 2.77 -
Jan. 2 : 3.10- 3.16 3.03 2.78 -
9 : 3.22 3.22 3.13 2.82 -
23 : 3.16 3.20 3.11 2.88 -
30 : 3.16 3.14 3.05 2.;82
Feb. 6 : 2.77 2.85 2.63 2.40

17 F.O.B. spot or to arrive, 2- Fort William quotation is in store. No. 1
Heavy Dark Northern Spring, 13 percent protein, (Duluth) plus 1/2 cent for in-
store basis is. assumed to be fairly comparable with No. 3 Canadian Northern Spring
wheat (Fort William in store.)





V!s-101.


- 13 -


7:bTe 6.- Exports of wheat-and floijr-from the"-United States,-by countries
of destination-,-1937-38, 1938-39,-1946-47, and
._. July-December 1947 _/

C"oun trv Prewar : postwar .July-Dece,

1: 1il. bu. i..: bu. : 1ii. bu. Mil. bu.

iUnited..Kihcdor and .ire.........: 35.0 36.1 : 32.9 7.2
Netherlands .................... : 13.9 17.7 : 18,6 11.7
Belgium ........................: 12.4 13.3 15,4 3.5
2ermran'v ........................ : 1,3 2.7 : -?0.3 70.4
Italy ....................... ...: 1.2 0.7 : 35.5 21.-5
Greece .........................: 2.5 0.3 10.8 11.3
Norway .................... ..... 0.9 0.4 5.8 2.8
France .......... ..............: 0.8 0.9 12.4 *21.3
Other Europe ....................: 4.8 3.3 : 41.0 3 28,8
Total L;ro.re ..............: 72,8 75.4 : 252.7 183.5
]:exico ... ........ ............ : 3.4 2.5 : ]3.8 6.1
Cuba .......................... : 2.4 2.2 8 -.-2- 3-.
Frazil .........................: 0.1 0.1 2,21-. 3.4
Venezuela ................: 0.5 0.3 1,4
Other Latin-American Republics .: 4.4 3.3 : 10-.1. 4.1
China and i.anchuria ..... ......: 0.4 11.6 : 5-.6 1. 8
Philippine Islands .............: 3.4 4.6 : 7 *.1 .....1.8
Other non-Luropean countries ...: 12.6 6.7 : :-..l 4/ 50.1
Total non-European '. : :... ..
countries ................: 27.2 31.3 : 4-3-.6 -72.5

Total world ............. 100.0 106.7 : 396-.-3. -..256-.0-

1/ Wheat grain and flour in terms of wheat. 2F Includes expor-ts 'for- civilian '
relief not reported by the -.rt-, nit of C.onmerce; exclbudes *shipmen-ts to U.S.
territories. 3/ Includes the following; Austria 11.4, Polarnd 3.0, *Swvi-tzerland '
4.3, Portugal 3.4, Finland 2.2, and miscelanr-cii 4.5 4/ Includes -the follow-
ing:; U. S. Pacific 28.8, U. K. Pacific 2.9, India 9.8, and mi'scellaneou-s 8.6

Table 7.- 'ae3t Flour: Civilian Per Canita- calendar years, ..... .
five--.-ear averae-:, 1910-1944, annually 1938-47

5-year : Flour .: Calendar : Flour : Calenjar .. .Flour "
avera'*- :;pir capital .' er_ : notr caoit: '--:ar r. :aita
P: ounds : poundss : .. :, :


1910-14"
1915-19
1920-24
1925-29
1930-34
1935-39


1/ On basis
2/ Equal to


208.8
192.7 : 1938 153.4
179.2 : 1939 1514 :
175.4 : 1940 147.4
153.4 : 1941 152.2
153.1 1942 '155.7

of persons eating out of civilian supplies.
3.36 bushels of wheat.


.1943
1944-
1945
1946
1947


. .. .1.62.7
162.2
.. ........160.7 "
153.4
2/ 144.2




JANUARY-FEBRUARY 194g


Table 8.- U.


Item


S. grain exports July 1946 June 1947 and July-December 1947
(1,000 long tons-- grain equivalent)

SJuly 1946 4 e
: to : JUly December


June 1947
Wheat : .Other
and : grains
flour :


194.


: Total : Wheat : Other : Total
: grain : and : grains : grain
: : flour : :


United Kingdom .....:
India ..............:
UK Pacific .........:
France .............:
Belgium ............:
Netherlands ........:
Norway ........,...:
Finland ............:
Sweden ...........,:
Switzerland ........
Portugal ...........:
Eire (Ireland) .....:
China ..... .........:
Austria ............:
Czechoslovakia .....:
Yugoslavia ........:
Greece ...........* .:
Italy ...............:
Poland .............:
So. Rhodesia .......:
Hungary ...........:
Rumania ...........:
Egypt ..... ........:
Philippines ........:
Mexico .............:
Brazil .......... :
Cuba ...............:
Bolivia ............:
Uruguay ..........:
Peru ........... ...:
US-UK Germany ......:
French Germany .....:
US Italy ...........:
US Pacific .........:
Others ..... ....,..:


Total ...........:10,618


- 14 -


822
573
237
332
413
497
155
121
9
164
141
59
150
316
113
8
289
836
209

19


191
371
581
220
33
35
10
1,985
167
115
968
474


131
390
9
271
107
127
8
32
8
65
60


128
25

98
472
76
8

77
56
5
24
17
17


845
81

584
386


953
963
246
603
520
624
163
153
17
229
201
59
150
444
138
8
387
1,308
285
8
19
77
56
196
395
598
237
38
35
10
2,830
248
115
1,552
860


. 104
262
78
571
227
314
76
58
47
115
91
89
. 47
305
S 3

304
576
81



42
47
163
90
102
11

27
1,749
136

771
371


. 68
214

108
96
34


8
24

1

31


S 7
.15



52
15
10.
17
25
13

1

336
17

288
253


172
476
78
- 679
* -323
348
76
58
55
139
91
90
47
336
3

311
591
81


52
57
57
180
115
115
11
1
27
2,085
153

1,059
624


*


14,725


.6,857


1,633 8,490


4,107





WS-10o4


Table 9.- Bye: Sup-pl and distribution, United States
1934-47

Year .Sup : DistrIbition ''Ibtal
beginn- : : :: :o F : alcohol : Ex- :disap-
ing :Stocks.Produc-:Imports.Total : 2/ ee : Seed : spir- :Total: ts: pear-
Jul. : : 'ion : : -- : : its : :', ance
:Mi l.bu.Mi .bu. Mil. bu .Mil .bu .Mi .bu .Mil .bu .Mil u .Mil .bu Mil .b MTl.bu .Mi.tu

193 : 1:i.9 16.3 11.2 42.4 8.0 4.8 8.6 10.2 31.6 5/ 31.6
1116: 10.M 56.9 2.3 70.0 6.9 21.9 8.7 12.8 50.3 j/ 50.3
1936 19.7 24.2 3.9 47.8 7.0 13.8 10.0 11.6 42.4 0.2 42.6
1937 .2 J8.9 / 54.1 5.9 18.0 9.1 6.0 39.0 6.6 45.6
1938 .5 56.0 / 64.5 6.8 19.8 9.7 5.5 41.8 0.8 42.6
193 : 21.9 38.6 5/ 60.5 7.0 20.2 7.4 5.6 40.2 0,7 40.9
.94o0 : 19.6 39.7 1.4 60.7 7.1 19.9 8.1 6.7 41.8 0.2 42.0
1941 : .7 43,9 8.8 71.4 7.8 19.2 8 5 6.8 42.3 5/ 42.3
1942 : 29.1 52.9 1.5 83.5 9.3 26,5 7.5 2,1 44.4 0.5 44.9
1943 47.1 28.7 8.3 84.1 8,7 33,2 6.1 4.5 52.5 0.6 53.1
1944 : 31.0 22.5 4.1 57.6 7.8 18.4 5.8 10.3 42.3 3.1 45.4
1945 : 2.2 24.0 2.0 38.2 6.7 9.2 4.5 8.3 28.7 7.2 35.9
1946 : 2.3 18.9 1.6 22,8 5,5 5.5 4.7 4.2 19.9 0.6 20.5
1947 6/: 2.3 26,0 28.3

1/ 1934-42, farm and commercial stocks only. Beginning in 19-43, the figures also
include interior mill and elevator stocks. 2/ Estimates based on trade information
related to the Census of 1939, 3/ Residual item. 4/ Lncludes flour. 5/ less than
50,000 bushels. 6/ Preliminary.

Table 10.- Bye, No. 2: Weighted average price per bushel of reported
cash sales, Minneapolis,.by months, 1940-47 1/

Year : : : ; : : :
beginn-' *a*. *Wtd.
being July Aug. Sept..Oct..Nov, Dec. Jan.* Feb,' Mar. Apr. May June:Wtd
: : : : :Av.
July : : : : : : : : .
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents (ents (ntsCents

1940 : 43.9 41.2 43.6 47.8 50.2 50.0 52.6 50.2 52.4 56.5 58.1 56.6 50o
1941 : 54.9 61.7 67.8 60.0 64.1 67,8 80.3 78.1 75.5 71.8 69.3 60.3 65.1
1942 : 60.6 58.8 64.6 59o1 59.3 70.3 74.7 79.2 82,9 80.9 87.2 94.1 73.4
1943 101.2 95.4 101.4 108.5 11170 120.2 127.0 122.5 123.5 12721 119.43L2.1308.1
1944 : 113.0 112.1 103.1 114.8 113.1 114.3 122.8 123.5 127.2 133.9 139.2 155.3322.2
1945 152.8 144.2 151.3 164,3 183.9 175'2 198.4 212.9 235.9 269.8 284.2 --- 17-.8
1946 : 209.0 195.2 223.5 239.2 267.6 279,3 285.7 310.8 353.9 310.8 319.2 302.9 25.2
1947 : 254.1 246.6 281.7 25.3 282.4 276.9 276.3

Compiled from Minneapolis Daily Market Record, Average of daily prices weighted
by carlot sales.
I/ rata for earlier years in The Wheat Situation as follows: 1915-32, June 1937,
page 16, 1933-39, March-April 1945, page 18.


- 15 -





JAEUARY-FEBRUARY 1948


- 16 -


Table 11.-Average price per bushel of rye received by farmers, U.S., 1940-1948
Year : : : : : : : : : : :Marke.-
begin-: July: Aug. :Sept. : Oct.:Nov.: Dec.: Jan.: Feb.-: Mar.: Apr,: May :June :ing year
ning 15 : 15 15 : 15 15 : 15.: 15 : 15 : .15 : 15 : 15 : 15 ,average
July ::___: : :
Cents Cents Cen ts Cent Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Centse Cent-E Cnts Cents

1040 : 38.3 36.8 38.3 40.5 42.8 41.3 45.6 41.2 .43.1 46.5 48.1 47.1 41.9
1941 : 40.4 49.4 57.3 51.3 54.2 57.8 65.2 66.0 .64.3 .60.7 59.4 52,4 .9
1942 : 51.3 49.2 55,2 52.9 50.4 56.3 61.3 64.1 68,9 69.5 71.9 79.7 59.8
1943 ; 90.9 88.6 94.5 101,0 102.0 107.0 111.0 111.0 111.0 112.0 111.0 105.0 98.1
1944 :107.0 108.0 102.0 108.0 108.0 106.0 109.0 1C8.0 109.0 111.0 112.0 121.0 10.0
1945 :122.0 124.0 131.0 138.0 150.0 143.0 150.0 164.0 175.0 195.0 192=0 145.0 135.0
1946 :176.0 162.0 191.0 199.0 207.0 218.0 218.0 233.0 281.0 247.0 245.0 240.0 192.0
1047 :236 211 248 249 249 245 247 (243.0)

THE RICE SITi'.%TIO.

Rice Exports Continue Large;
Large Acreage in Prospect

When Oriental trade in rice was cut off by the war, production in the United
States was increased, and in the past 6 years has averaged 37 percent above the
1935-39 prewar average. However, this increase is not very significant in relation
to the total world supply, since the United States produces only 1 percent of the
total.

United States rice supplies in 146-47 were 73.8 million bushels 6/, a
record. Stocks at the beginning of the year were equivalent to only 1.6 million
bushels but the crop was 72.2 million. Civilian food use for the year was 23.1 mil-
lion bushels, the largest since 1942 but below the 1935-39 average of 26.0 million.
Seed and feed use totaled 4.7 million bushels and brewers used about 3.6 million
bushels of broken rice

A large quantity of rice was sent abroad in 1946-47. Commercial exports
amounted to the equivalent of 28.2 million bushels, more than double the average
of 11 million bushels for 1237-39. Shipments to J. S. possessions were 9.7 million
bushels. In addition, 2.4 million bushels were shipped for relief feeding by'the
military services.

Rice set-aside orders and price ceilings "ere discontinued July 15, 1947
before the marketing of the 1947 crop. This tended to increase domestic use. The
rice carry-over at the beginning of the 1947-48 marketing year was the equivalent
of 2.0 million bushels. T'.ith the record crop of 79.3 million bushels, total sup-
plies were P1.3 million bushels--another new record. Disa~c.,rance is expected to
be as follows: food about 24.8 million compared with 23.1 a year earlier, seed
and feed about the same as the year earlier, and broken rice by brewers somewhat
larger than the 3.6 million in 1946-47. Shipments and exports may total about the
same as last year, in which event, stocks at the end of the year will again be'small.,

Supplici of milled rice on January 1 were cli.-htly larger than a year
earlier. On January 1, 1947, 6-1/2 million oc&-ots 8/ of southern rice and a little
over 3 million pockets of California rice were on hand. Of the 10.8 million pockots
of U. S. rice shipped by mills .'rom the beininnig of the season thrrog-ih December,
about 3.9 million were exported, 1.5 million were shipped to the territories, and
5.4 million went into domestic trade. This includes heads, second heads, and
screenings.
,' -jures in 1itrm of milled rice os well as rough rice are shown in table 12.
7/ Other than the class called brewers rice.
A pocket equals 100 pounds of killed rice.




17S -104


- 17 -


In view of the world situation, it is, fairly certain that the requirements
against 1948 supplies will exceed our present production capacity. Another very
large acreage is expected in 1948. Prices in the last half of 1947 were the
highest in our history, e::c- t for 1919 and 1920 (table 13).

Dxportable pico Sup plies Only One-Third Prewar
World Cr.:' Vithin -1 Prcent of rearr 9

The 1947-48 (Augus--July) world rice crop is expected to be about 96 per-
cent of the prewar average. The harvest is now estimated at 7,100 million bushels
of rough rice compared with 6,950 million bushels in 1946-47 and the 1935-40
average of 7,400 trillion.. In terms of milled rice the 1947-48 crop is 111,000,000
short tons, co:.i-ared with 109,000,000 last year and 117,000,000 prewar (table 14).

Despite the gain in production over 1946-47, suurplie: for export are only
about 3,00'-.,000 tons of milled rice, compared with the prewar average of 8,800,000
tons. It is estimated that last year, 2,500,000 tons ;rere available for export.

Before the war, the surplus areas of Asia exported over 90 percent, or
8,300,000 tons of total world exports. Of this amount, over 6,000,000 tons were
shipped to other Asiatic countries. In 1946, however, Asiatic countries imported
around 300,000 tons and would have taken considerably more if it had been
available. Reduced production in Asia's ir.iportin, countries increased the need,
and supplies available from the former exporting countries were only 18 percent
of the prewar average.

At present, Europe is the only other continent showing a rice deficit.
forth. America, South America, and Africa all have surpluses though relatively
small. Of the 2,000,000 tons ship--ed from Asia's surplus area to other continents
before the vwar, about 60 percent of milled and semi-milled rice went to Europe,
over 10 percent to Africa, nearly 10 percent to the Caribbean (primarily Cuba),
and about'20 percentt to other countries. In 1947, about 3,C percent of world rice
supplies or 1,900,000 tons wore sent to countries of Asia; betwbreei 10 and 15 per-
cent were used in importing countries of the westernn Henisphere, and no rice was
allocate'! to Europe.

Production is recovering to come extent in the w:ar-affected countries of
Asia, and most of the increase in 1347-48 is in that area. In Europe, a record
acreage was planted, and production slightly exceeds the prewar average.. The
crops of north America and Africa rose above the high levels of last year. A
decrease in production; however, is possible in South America where planting is
about completed.

The 1947-48'production of Asia is estimated at 6,600 million bushels com-
pared with 6,500.c million the year before, and -with 7,100 million before the war.
Come increase took -lace in Burma, China, Forr-osa, Korea, the Philippine Islands,
Sian and the :.:alayan Uniojr. The crop is slightly smaller in Jarpan, and present
prospects indicate the output of India may be below that of last year.


./' From "The .7orld Food Situation," February 1948 (Office of Foreign Agricultural
Relations, USDA).





JANUARY-FERRUARY 1948


- 18 -


The total production of Asia's exporting countries, Burma, Siam, and
French Indo-China is estimated at 620 million bushels, or about 100 million
larger than that of a year earlier. Their combined production this season is
about 70 percent of prewar. The greatest increase is in Burma, where about
1,000,000 more acres vw.ere planted than last year. The surplus of milled rice
for export from the December 1947 harvest is estimated at 1,570,000 tons.
Although substantial gains have been achieved in the past 2 years since the war
ended, the exportable surplus is till only about 50 percent of prewar average
exports.

The production of Siam in 1947-48 is expected to be larger than in the
year before, and exportable supplies are estimated to be about 75,000 more
than last year. French Indo-China formerly supplied nearly 20 percent of the
world's rice exports but in 1948 little rice is expected to be available for
other countries.

The 1947 rice harvest of China is officially estimated to be 1 percent
larger than in the preceding year, and 96 percent of the 1931-37 average. A
good crop was also harvested in Formosa where production is reported to be
about 90 percent of prewar.

In Japan, production for 1947 equal to the good crop of the year before
had been forecast, but unfavorable weather resulted in a downwaeL revision of
the estimate. Production in South Korea is estimated at 17 percent larger than
in 1946, and 6 percent of prewar. Korea formerly exported rice to Japan, but
none has been available for export since the war.

The acreage and outturn of the Philippine Islandsexceed the prewar aver-
age, but are not as high as the level attained in the years immediately prior
'to the war. British Malaya has increased rice acreage extensively this season.
About 95,000 more acres is being planted to rice than in the preceding year, a
gain of 12 percent.

Favorable weather in :the rice-producing countries of Europe made pos-
sible a large rice harvest. Production is estimated to be 2 percent larger than
the prewar average and 32 percent above last year's outturn. In Italy, the
acreage was 45,000 acres larger than in the preceding year, and weather was
favorable for a bumper crop. For the first time since the war, rice nyay be ex-
ported from that country. Weather in Spain was beneficial, and yields approach-
ing Spain's former high yields per acre were harvested. Production in Portugal
also was larger than in 1946.

Egypt harvested a record crop from a record acreage, but, because of other
grain shortages, exportable supplies are estimated to be about the same as those
of a year earlier. Although a large crop has been reported in Madagascar, indi-
cations are that rice may not be exported from that country in 1948.

In North America, a bumper crop in the United States was chiefly res-
ponsible for a 10 percent gain over the production of that Continent in the
preceding year. The rice production of South America may be smaller than the
1946-47 outturn. Brazil's acreage Is 5 percent less, and production may be
6 percent below last season's crop. Export supplies from that country, there-
fore, may be less than during 1947.










Tablel2.- Rice: Supply and distribution, milled and rough-equivalent basis, (excluding brewer's) Continental United States,
19314-35 to 1947-4s
: supply Z U. Z. disappearance : Axports and onipments
:Stocks at : Farm : :Total :Civilian : : :Broken rice : : i: : Mlitary : Balanc- Stocks :Civilian
Year beginning:beginning :Production:Imports: supply *Pood 2j : Seed : Teed : used by : Total Exports:Shipments:Total I Services : ing 4 at Iper capital
Auguet l : : : ; .: :brewer's and relief item J t end consumption


In terms of milled rice 5J
:Thous. Thous
:Dockets 51 pockets
1934 : 1,740 11.250
1935 2 531 11.553
1936 $ 837 13,777
1937 = 1,689 .15,190
1938 1,505 15.227
1939 2,319 "15*303
1940 = 2,615 15,1o6
1941 1,658 14,615
1942 16/ 184 18,896
1943 'E/ 1.577 19, 43
1944 1,605 2043
1945 552 / 20.
1946 /5F 180 22.074
1947 I'6 610 24,051

In terms of ru rice equivalent 5/


Thous. Thous. Though
Dookots pockets pockets
230 13.220 7,130
169 12.253 '6.,64
202 14,816 7,.633
108 16,987 7.6145
117 16,849 7,306
119 17.741 -7.751
93 18,114 7,690
83 16,356 7.227
4 19.084 7,517
2 21,062 6.392
0 22,059 '6.075
0 20,996 5,483
0 22,554 7,002
0 24,245


Thous. Thous. Thous.
pmckatB pocets nocets
61 206 3
736 554 54
726 360 372
723 208 350
739 217 536
866 234 511
1,037 198 6s0
1,086 193 645
1,069 214 1,307
'1,062 202 1,522
1.157 210 1,623
1,189 235 1.085


Thous.
pockets
7,933
7.538
8,977
9,103
8,587
9.243
9.301
9,142
9,441
8,982
8,861
8.473
9.511


Tnous.

792
913
3,051
3.327
3.099
3.952
4.363
4,614
5,294
4,851
7,176
8.556


Thoue.

3.135
2,949
2.996
3,389
3,018
3,.162
3.314
2,940
2,629
3.351
2,969
2,869
2,933


Thous.

3,741'
3.909
6.440
6,345
6,261.
7.266
7,303
7.243
8.645
,820"
10,045
11.489


Thous.
pockets
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
700
855
.4,120 '
2,002
730


Thous.
+412
+137
+.241
-61
-4o02
. -378
-111
-273
+123
+974
+706
4
+214


Thoue.
pockets
531
837
1.689
1,505
2,319
2,615
1.658
184

552
610
610


Pounds

5.2
5.9
5.9
5.6
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.8
4.9
4.7
4.1
4.9


I Mil. Nil. il. Nil. Nil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Nil. Nil. il. Nil. Mil. Nil. Mil.
Sbu. bu. bu. bu. b. bun. bun. bun. bu. b. bun. b. bn. bun. bun.
1934 a -".o6 39 05 ."80 _f9fl 21 .75 1.90 .77 0.09 27 51f" "- f lo-'T 1575 0o +1.51 1i--=
1935 1.84 39.45 .58 41.87 22.70 2.33 .69 0.01 25.73 2.70 10.05 12.75 0 +0.54 2.85
1936 Is 2.95 49.82 .73 53.40 27.60 2.65 2.41 0.20 32.86 3.29 10.79 14.08 0 +0.39 6.os
1937 : 6.08 53.42 .38 59.88 26.89 2.54 1.37 1.31 32.11 10.69 11.ss 22.57 0 -0o.o7 5.27
1938 5.27 52.51 .40 58.18 25.19 2.49 .72 1.21 29.61 11.45 10.39 21.84 0 -1.25 7.98
1939 a 7.98 54.06 .42 62.46 27.38 2.60 .77 1.89 32.64 10.91 11.13 22.04 o -1.42 9.20
1940 : 9.20 54.43 .33 63.96 27.17 3.01 .83 1.80 32.81 13.90 11.57 25.47 o -o.11 5.79
1941 : 5.79 51.32 .29 57.40 25.38 3.64 .71 2.39 32.12 15.32 10.32 25.64 0 -1.01 0.65
1942 :6/ 0.65 64.627 .01 65.29 25.71 3.71 .66 2.21- 32.29 15.78 8.99 24.77 2.39 +0.45 5.39
1943 ,I/ 5.39 65.031 .01 70.43 21.34 3.57 ..71 4.36 29.98 17.70 11.18 28.88 2.85 +3.36 6.
1944 26, 5.36 68.830 0 74.19 20.44 3.63 .68 5.12 29.87 16.32 9.98 26.30 13.86 +2.30 1.85
1945 as9 1.86 68.15 0 70.01 18.27 3.86 .68 5.40 28.21 23.92 9.56 33.48 6.67 +0.05 1.60
1946 l:-j 1.60 72.22 o 73.82 22.91 3.92 .78 3.55. 31.16 27.99 9.60 37.59 2.39 +0.68 2.00
1947 1/ii 2.00 79.34 0 81.34
Data from Productioi, ,nd M-rx'Ying Ldministratlonr of the U. S. D. A. an.ilepartment of Commerce, in addition to the Dureau of Agricultural Ec3nomics. inmlled ric;
converted on the basis of pounds of milled rice (heads, second heads and screenings, excluding brewers) produced annually from 100 pounds of rough rice; converted
separately for the Southern States. and California.
1/ Includes California on an October 1 year. 2J Civilian food disar.parance.of milled rice produced from. domestic grain plus rice uped on farms plus imports, ad-
Justed for military and nee of broken rice by brewers. I/ Rice used by brewers other than class called brewers rice. V4 Balancing item, resulting from errors
in data and in conversions, as well as differences in marketing years. 5/ Pocket equals 100 ponds. 6j Stocks include production and Marketing holdings outside
of mills, in thousand pockets, as followed 20 in 1942, 1.152 in'"1943,' 1.426 in 1944, 37 in 1945, 2 in 1946,' and 417 in 1947. 7 Preliminary.





JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1948


- 20 -


Table 13. Rice rough: Louisiana and California
-rices received by farmers, by months, 1933-48


Louisiana price per barrel of 162 pounds -
Year begin-: : : : : : : : : :
ning :Aug. :Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Doe.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr :May : Juhc .: July
Aug. :_: : : : ::___ __ : : :D.
: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. --ol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Do. Do l. Dol.


1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947


2.34
: 2.84
2.66
3.23
2.74
: 2.30
t 2.09
: 2.84
3.82
5.76
5.83
: 5.94
6.12
6.30
:10.20


2.70
2.81
1.98
5.56
2.,4
2.16
3,20
2.30
3.13
5.76
5.80
5.80
6.48
7.09
8.35


2.81
2.99
2.34
3.13
2.88
2.34
2.74
2.52
3.46
5.29
6.26
6.59
6.41
7.81
8.75


2.88
3.06
2.52
3.02
2.99
2.48
2.81
2.88
4.61
5.58
6.91
6.66
6.84
8.93
9.54


2.70
2.81
2.66
2.95
2.45
2.34
2,66
2.99
5.36
b.12
6.84
b.77
6.66
9.00


2.81
2.77
2.99
3.51
2.59
2.38
2.70
5.46
5.69
6.148
6.98
6.66
6.66
8.46


2,84
2.95
3.06
3.49
2.38
2.48
2.48
3.82
5.98
6.48
7.06
,.66
6.48
9.72


2.88
3.06
2.99
3.53
2.27
2.34
2.34
3o78
6.41
6.55
6.84
6.66
7.02
9.72


2.92
3.10
3.02
3.60
2.05
2.30
2.34
4.50
6.55
6.73
6.88
6.66
7.02
9.36


2.81
3.13
3.20
3.42
2.09
2.30
2.70
4.50
6.55
6.62
b.48
6.66
7.20
9.36


2.77
3.24
3.20
3.20
2.27
2.30
2.70
4.36
6.19
6.62
6.26
6.66
7.20
8.86


2.70
3.17
3.24
3.06
2.30
2,27
2.84
4.21
6.12
6.48
6.30
6.66
7.20
10.10


9.76 10.70


California price per 100 pounds 1/
Year begin-: : : : : : : : :
ning :Aug. :S-pt.: Oct.: ]Tox.: Dec.: Jan.: Fob.: Mar.: Apr.: IMay : June : July
Aug. : :_:____:____: : :: :__
: Dlo. -Dol-. -D-ol. Dol. Dol. Doo. Dolo Dol, Dol. Dol Lol,


1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946 2/
1947


: 1.72
1.75
1.18
2.00
: 1.51
1.33
1.27
: 1.3o
: l.53
: 3.67
3.80
: 3.44
: 3.44
3.42
5.89


1.73
1.75
1.11
2.00
1.40
1.33
1.31
1.33
2.00
3.24
v.80

b.44
3.12
4.89


1.72
1.74
1.20
1.56
1.24
1.27
1.31
1.29
2.24
3.24
3.67

3.42
4.44
*11


1.75
1.65
1.15
1.56
1.20
1.24
1.31
1.24
2.38
3.24
3.67

3.42
4,33
5.78


1.77
1.65
1.15
1.29
1. 20
1.27
1.31
1.51
3.00
3.31
3.67
3.4~t
3.42
4.33
F.67


1.80
1,60
1.93
1.33
1.31
1.22
1.31
1.38
3.40
3.51
3.67

5.42
4.33
6.00


1.80
1.60
1.93
1.53
1.'0
1.20
1..:!?
1.42
3.40
5.51
3.69
3.44
3,42
4.33


1.79
1.47
1.96
1.56
1.40
1.24
1.27
1.44
3.40
3.67
3.73
3.44
3.42
4.33


1.78
1.67
2.00
1.56
1.33
1.22
1.29
1.51
3.67
3.80
3.56
3.44
3.42
4.33


1.75
1.91
2.00
1.51
1.33
1.20
1.27
1.56
3.67
3.91
3.44
3.44
3.42
4.33


1.74
1.91
2.00
1.51
1.29
1.13
1.24
1.73
3.67
3.91
3.44
3.44
3.42
4.33


1.75
1.89
2.00
1.51
1.31
1.13
1.33
1.87
3.67
3.80
3.44
3.44
3.42
5.89


I7 Prior to January 1935, price r.f C lifc.rni. rd,, fo.b. r'.arehouce, from Pacific
Rural Press.
2/ Prices beginning vith January 1946 .u-jzct t.- r ,vi ion, th. rice on December
T946 was revised from $53.67 to ,.f.42.


L. ______0_________________




.'IC-104 -21-

Table 14.- Rice, Hilled;: Torld production and trade 1.35-.6 to 1059-40,
estinmted production and exports in 1947-48 ..

:Apparent
I Estimated :domestic : n t
International trade
production : disap- :
Continent :poarance :
nl country : 10i5.6 : : : Prewar :Prospective
: to ; 17-4V : P~go0 .1 a average 3/ : 1948
: 1 -40 : 2/ 0 iet : .eot :
__A .__ _________ Z *Mjports :exports : Exports
--,00 -,UU- 1,007o.o- --,00 -I .)-I1 "- f- 7
: sh.tons sh.tons sh. tons sh,tons sh.tons sh.tons
Horth America:
United States...-......: 729 1,160 622 -- 107 390
Mexico ................ 59 1. 00 50 9 40
Estimated total.....: 920 1,483 1,140 338 118 430
Europe:
Italy............ ... 550 502 382 -- 168 60"
Spain............. ...: 155 186 224 69 -- --
7stimated total.....: "777 793 2,05I. 1,446 170 65
Asia:
French Indo-China.....: 4/4,978 3,308 3,368 -- 1,610 20
Siam..................: 3,356 2,252 1,793 -- 1,563 550
Eurma.................: 5,489 4,239 2,182 -- 3,307 1,570
China.................: 41,318 36,982 41,729 411
1!anchuria.............: 501 357 586 85 -- -
Japan.................. 9,385 8,591 11,331 1,946 -- --
Korea.................: 3,083 5/2,026 2,022 -- 1,061 --
Formosa...............: 1,350 1,151 641 -- 709 --
rhilippine Islands....: 1,652 1,715 1;788 65 -- -
British ThlaTa........: 427 394 1,206 779 -- -
1Ietherlandsa Indies 6/.: 6,960 6,200 7,172 212 -- -
India 7/..............: 32,500 35,000 34,055 1,552 -- -
Others... ...9.........: 30 1,785 2,127 1,010 30 --
Estimated total...... 112,000 104,000 110,TOO 6,060 8,280 2,140
South America; :
Brazil...............;.: 971 1,623 929 -- 42 230
British Guiana........: 52 8/ 35 -- 17 25
Ecuador.... ........: 50 8/ 37 13 65
Estimated total.....: 1,3'. 2,340 1,331 102 80 325
Africa:: '
Egypt.................: 552 9.73 30 -- 132 200
Estimated total.....: 1,670 2,520 1,74 60 156 200
iEstimnated world total...: 117,300 111, 100 116,900 8,400 8,800 3,160

Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, U. S. Department of Agriculture.
1/ For countries of Asia and Africa, rough rice is converted to milled at 70 percent,
and for other countries at 65 percent. Killed rice trade includes milled, broke.ns,
semi-milled unconverted, and rough rice in terms of milled. 2/ Preliminary.
3/ 1035-40 average ,.here available. Othenrise, the latest 5 years are included for
which figures are available. 4/ Less than .-year average. 5/ South Korea only.
6/ rIstimate for all Netherland's Indies. 7/ Including estimate of production in
unreportedd areas. 8/ Unavailable.
I





U, S. D1partiont of AyTiculturc
WaohlnGton 25, D. C.
dPiFIAL BUSINESS
SA-W 104-/48- 33CO -
PEaIt n0.1001


- 22 Ponalty for private uae to avoid
payocnt of postaco $300
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

1111 I 11111111 II l I I
.. ..... 3 1262 08862 6691


Ay for LW TA iBR

j~fl~jaaso'n*


- - *:, -22- - -
Thblc 15,.- Bico, roubh:' AcrcaGc ccdcdc, yicld, and- production in
...... Southern Statco and California, and. tdtcl aoroagc and
-_ __ ___. production in the United Stctoc, 1925-47
Acrcago : Avcr;c yicld : Production
Year : per acro :


:So+. or-n:
L___ g__ttes.:
1,000
: &crco
1925 : -75
1926 67
1927 :867
1928 -840
1929 : 765
1930 : 856
1931 : 840
'1932 : -764
"1933 : "690
1934 : 704
1935. : 717
1936 : 843 .
1937 : 967
1938 : 951
1939 : 925
-1940 972-
.1941 :1,110.
1942 :1,278
- 1943 :1,280..-..
S-1-944. :1, 257 .
1945 :1,268
1946 .:1,331
1947 /:1,450


Call1- : Uited:Southorn
fornia:'Statcd: Statec
1,000 1,000,
acroa. acroo. Buchclc
149.9 1,016. 39.3
160 1,027 41.0
132 .,97E 42.5
- 95 860 44.2
-110 966 44.0
125 965 43.3
110 874 44,3
108 798 44.5:
108 81? 43.7
100 817 44.7
138 981 480o
149' 1,116 45.8
125 1,076 46.4
- 120 1,045 48.7
118 1,090 46.3
153 1,263 38.7
212 1,490 40.7
.237 1,517 39,4
246 1,503 42.8
239 1,507 42.8
..255 1,586 41.2
237 1,687- 42.4


L: Cali- :Southcrn-:


Call- : United


: fornia: Satcc -: -fornia : Statca
1,COO 1,000 1,000.
Buchclo Buociclo Buchclc Bucshel
S466 128,3"6'- 4,800. 33,036
53,6 1/34,039 7,986 .42,025
56.o 135,537 8,960 .44,497
61.9 1/35,663' 8:171 43,834
60.2 -33,815 5,719 39,534
66.1 37,658 7,271 44,929
66.0 36,363 8,250. ..44,613
70.9 33,819 7,800 41,619
64.0 30,739-- 6,912 37,651
76.4 30,791 8,256 39,047
74.0 32,052 7,400 39,452
68.0 40,436 9,384 49,820
6105 44,314 9,108 53,422
67.0 44,131 8,375 52,506
75.0 45,062 9,000 54,062
80.0 44,993 9,440 54,433
55.0 42,908 8,415 51,323
56.0 52,0000 12,627 64,627
61.4 50,471 14,560 65,031
61.0 53,830 15,000- 68,830
58.2 54,235' 13,915 68,150
66.1 54,632 17,584 72,216
75,4 61,485 17,860 79,345


I iciudo- production in othcr Statco, In thousand buchcla, Ca f-olloro
300 In 1925, 610 .in 1926, 75 in 1927 and 400 in 1928.
2/ Prcllninnry.


I II I I




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