Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00007

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THE


WS-106


FOR" RELEASE
AUG. 3, A. M


SITUATION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Q_ fMAY-JUNE-JULY 1948


Bi- vr --i- et a orlplo o -. &Ia -n1 -icmUvl,

Before the war the main flow of international trade in foodstuffs was from South
America to Europe. Asia and Australia, as well as North America, exported considerable
.quntitles to Europe.

01 ea h m i M o We 2 i a


In 1946-4 North America was the main source of
Imported larrquant cities.


trade in foodstuffs.


The Orient









































... .a ... o.. .

NM BI OMia OF FORIN AWCMTURA. n.LATMS


Of the 10 principal countries producing grains and soybeans, only the United States
had heavy Increases in 1947 compared with 1935-39. Australia andCanada produced slightly
larger crops than in the prewar period. Heavy decreases occurred mainly in the western
European countries and the Far East. The relationship of these changes in production to
the food needs of the population can be gained roughly by comparing the charts above and
below.

Nag. 916


OS NTS~ cinO.sr. a os. ~e r .LflL A.


L w T






WS-106


THE HEA T SI TUA TION 0


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, July 23, 1948


SUmIARY
United States wheat supplies for 1948-49 are now estimated at
1,437 million bushels. The 1948 crop, estimated as of July 1 at 1,242 mil-
lion bushels, is second only to the record high of 1,365 million bushels
produced in 1947. The carry-over, reported at 195 million bushels, is
111 million bushels above a year earlier, but still bLlow the prevar
(1932-41) average of 235 million bushels. With the increase in the
carry-over, total supplies are almost as large as in 1947, a level cx-
ceeded only in 1942 and 1943 whcn July 1 carry-over stocks were at
record highs.

Domestic disappearance in 1943-49 may total about 750 million
bushels, consisting approximately of the following quantities, in million
bushels: Food 510, feed 150, and seed and industrial uJe 90. If total
supplies are 1,437 million bushcls arddomestic disappearance totals
750 million, 687 million will be available for export and carry-over.
A preliminary analysis of supplies available in other exporting countries
and probable takings by importing countries indicates that 1943-49 exports
from the United States may total about 450 million bushels. On this basis,
the carry-over July 1, 1949 would approximate the prewar average.

Wheat disappearance in 1947-48 was the third largest on record.
Exports are estimated at about 485 million bushels, including flour in
terms of wheat and 4 million bushels shipped to U. S. territories. This
is nearly as much as the total world trade in wheat and flour in some
prewar years and is about equal to U. S. domestic food consumption.
Iloreover, it is the third consecutive year in which U. S. exports have
bettered previous records. Domestic-disappearance was approximately as
follows, in million bushels: Food 498, seed 91, alcohol 1, and feed 179,
making a total of 769 million bushels.

Prices of new crop winter wheat are at present below the loan
level. The loan program and heavy movement into storage, however, is
expected to strengthen prices as the season advances. Storage has been
so heavy and cars inadequate that for the time being the Association of
American Railroads has placed embargoes on shipments for storage into
all terminals in the Southwestern winter wheat area. Wheat offered for
sale is still permitted to move. The shortage of cars to move the large
crops presents a difficult transportation problem again this year.

The wheat price support at a national average of i2.00 a bushel
to farmers for the 1948 crop was announced on June 30. Last year's an-
nounced rate was ,l.83. Corresponding rates this year arc :2.23 for
No. 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City, and $2.25 for No. 1 Dark Northern
Spring at Eiinneapolis. In addition to loans, purchase agreements are
again available in substantially the same terms as those which applied
to the 1947 crop.
0


- 3 -





MAY-JULY 1948 .

Wheat prices in 1948-49 are expected to average moderately abovc the
loan level. It is not likely that average prices in 1948-49 will exceed
the loan rate by as much as in the past two years, because of the increase
in the size of the carry-over, and the plentiful supply and lower cost of
other grains. -Prospects for the growing 1949 crops will again be an im-
portant price factor.

The European wheat crop for 1948 (excluding the Soviet Union) is
tentatively forecast at 1,450 million bushels compared with 1,015 million
bushels in 1947 and an average of 1,588 million bushels in the prewar years.
Larger crop than in 1947 are reported for all countries. Eye production,
forecast at 600 million bushels, Is about 20 percent larger than the low
production last year, bilt still 20 percent less than the average for 1935-39.
In the Soviet Union, the present outlook for total grain production is about
the same as it was in 1947, but still below the prewar average.

Production in Canada may fall below the 1935-39 average of 312 million
bushels. Last year's production was 341 million. The 1948 crop deterio-
rated steadily from the middle of May through June according to the Dominion
Bureau of Statistics. Deterioration was temporarily checked throughout
most of the drought area by rains in the first week of July.

On the basis of very tentative figures on production, world supplies
available for exports in the year beginning July 1, 1948 may total about
900 million bushels. Roughly, it would be expected that about two-thirds
of such an amount would go to European countries participating in the ERP.
While such an amount, in addition to domestic production, would not be enough
to restore prewar pcr capital consumption, it would be about 15 percent above
the low level of consumption in 1947-48. In addition to a substantial
increase in population, these countries have a low level of reserve stocks
of all food products, and there is continued need for using food grains as
a substitute for other foods which are short.

THE CURRENT WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND: In 1939-41, the supply of wheat in
Continental United States averaged 982 million bushels
consisting of carry-over old wheat, 235; production,
738, and imports for domestic use, 9. Total disap-
pearance averaged 721, consisting of food, 475; feed,
122; seed, 81; and exports and shipments 43.

An abnormal world demand for bread grains has
made it possible to move the excess over domestic needs
from four successive record wheat crops in the United
States. Furthermore, the carry-over was cut down to
very low levels on July 1, 1946 and 1947.


9






Net experts from the United States have exceeded
300 million bushels only in 1914-15, 1920-21, and in the
I- 3 years beginning with 1945-46. Very small U. S. wheat
crops in 1933-36 together with drives toward greater self-
Is. ufficienoy in importing countries greatly reduced exports
In the 30*s, and the war curtailed shipping in the early
S40's. In.1921-30 net exports from the United States aver-
aged 177 million bushels, while in the 35 years since 1909,
leaving out the years of net imports, net exports averaged
p -, 169 million bushels.

Wheat prices to growers advanced from an average of
68 cents per bushel in 1940-41 to a record high of $2.81 in
mid-January 1948, and a record season average of about
$2.31 for the 1947 crop. Until 1943-44, the loan program
was the most important factor in domestic wheat prices. Be-
giTnitg in that year heavy exports of wheat have been the
chief price factor. However, domestic use also has been
Above average. The 1947-48 prices reflected the reduction
in supplies of feed grains, the additional demand resulting
from the lack of corn and other grains for export, and the
rise in the general price level.

,IEEs to Continue large; Carry-over
A b9 Mt e about Average
United States wheat supplies in 1948-49 are now estimated at .1,437 mil-
- hOn. bushels. The crop, estimated at 1,242 million bushels is second only
t the record high 1,365 million-bushel crop in 1947. With an increase in
i ;:the carry-over this year, total supplies are almost as large as last year,
h-whiobh were exceeded only in 1942-43 and 1943-44 when the carry-overs at the
b..ainag of the year were at record levels (table 6).

...: Domestic disappearance may total about 750 million bushels, consist-
4:$g approximately of the following, in million bushels: Food 510, feed
Xi6a,'.and seed and industrial use 90. The food item is slightly above the
taiBLty used in 1947-48. With a record large corn crop in prospect,
:hsa feeding of wheat will be reduced from the estimated 179 million bushels
t v: 14-7-48. HOwever, it is expected to be heavy in the July-September
mrte, r because of short corn supplies. The use for distilled spirits,
:Oaqh'ol and malt beverages will again be very small. In 1947-48 it amounted
to inly 600 thousand bushels.

If total supplies are 1,437 million bushels, and domestic disappearance
totals 75O million..bushels, 687 million bushels will be available for ex-
pt. and carry-ower. A preliminary analysis of supplies which may be avail-
-able in other exporting countries and probable takings by importing countries
indicated.that exports from the United States amy total about 450 million
bushels.. On this basis the carry-over July 1, 1949 would be about the
1932-41 average of 235 million bushels.




~ 's-t








195 iiillion Bushels; ". '
111 Hillion Above Year Earlier '.

The carry-over of old wheat on July 1 was reported at 195 million
bushels. This was over twice as much as the 84 million bushels a year
earlier, almost twice the 100-million in 1946, but it was smaller than
any other year since 1938. Table 8 shows July 1 stocks in .the various
positions compared with the same positions in recent years. Stocks of
old wheat on farms July 1, 1948 were estimated at 94 million bushels,
which was more than double the small July 1 stocks of the past 2 years,
and slightly above the 10-year average of 92 million bushels. These July 1
stocks represent 6.9 percent of the previous year's crop, compared with
3.5 percent on July 1, 1947, and the average of 10.2 percent. About
two-thirds of the farm stocks this year are in the five States of Nebraska,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota and I.iontana. Tbtal off-farm stocks are
estinnated at 101 million bushels, compared with 43 million a year earlier,
58 million on July 1, 1946, and 191 million on July 1, 1945.

Wheat Disappearance in 1947-48
Third Largest; Exports Set Record
For Third Constecutive Year

VWheat disappearance in 1947-48, at 1,254 million bushels, was
exceeded only by the 1,282 million in 1943-44 and the 1,289 million ih
1945-46. In 1943-44, 488 million were used for feed, 107 million by in-
dustry, and only 66 million exported. In 1945-46, 304 million were used
for fFcd, 21 million by industry, and 394 million bushels exported
(table 6).

Exports for 1947-48 are estimated at about 485 million bushels, in-
eluding flour in terms of wheat and also shipments to U. S. territories of
4 million bushels. This approaches total world trade in wheat in some
prewar years and is about equal to U.-S. domestic food consumption. ilore-
over it is the third consecutive year .in which U. S. exports have set a
ne'.7 record. Exports in 1945-46 totaled,394 million bushels, and in.
1946-47 they were 398 million bushels. Estimated exports to the various .
foreign relief agencies, other Government exports and commercial exports
are shown in table 3. (Comparable figures for 1945 and 1946 are shot in
The Whuat Situation, issue of August 1947). The quantities by countries
of destination for wheat and other grains, under the export program is
shown in The ifmheat Situation, issue for LI:arch-April, 1948,' page 18.

Domestic disappearance in 1947-48 was approximately as follows, in
million bushels: Food 498, seed 91, alcohol 1, and feed 179, a total of
769 million bushels.

New-crop Prices Below Loan;
Purchase Agreements Again Available

Prices of new crop wheat on July 23 at Kansas City were 4 cents
below the loan and at St. Louis 1 cent below the loan. The loan program
and heavy movement into storage, however, is expected to strengthen prices .k:
as the season advances. Storage has been so heavy and cars inadequate
that for the time being the Association of American Railroads has placed- .
embargoes on shipments for storage into all terminals in the southwestern
winter wheat arca. 'Wheat offered for sale is still permitted to move..
shortage of cars to. movo the large crops presents a difficult tranwap
situation again this year. .. ..1..":




S WS-106 7 -

Wheat price support for the 1948 crop was announced on June 30 at a
national average of $2.00 a bushel to farmers. Last year's announced rate
was $1.83 a bushel. Terminal prices comparable to this rate for the current
year, with earlier years for comparison, are shown in table 5.
The price support level for wheat is 90 percent of the parity price
at the beginning of the marketing year, July 1. The 1948 parity was J2.22 a
bushel, 18 cents higher than the $2,04 a bushel a year earlier. The increase
since that time is a measure of the rise in the index of prices paid by
farmers including interest and taxes.
Only wheat grading No. 3 or better, or No. 4 or No. 5 because of test
weight only, will be eligible for loan or purchase. The loans will be avail-
able through December 31, 1948, and will mature on April 30, 1949, or earlier
on demand.
On May 25, interim loan rates were offered by the Department for the
protection of growers harvesting early wheat. This rate was based upon
parity as of April 15.
In addition to loans, purchase agreements on 1948-crop wheat will be
offered to farmers as a further means of price support. This was announced
July 15. Farmers may use either or both the loan and purchase programs.
The purchase agreements will be offered from time of harvest through
December 31, 1948, in all States and counties where commodity loans are
available, in substantially the same terms as those which applied to the
1947 crop.
Under the agreements the producer will state the maximum quantity of
eligible wheat upon which he desires an option to deliver to Commodity
Credit Corporation. The CCC will accept any quantity up to that maximum
any time before Lay 30, 1949. Purchase prices will be the same as the loan
delivery rates.
By July 22, CCC had enough wheat to cover its announced wheat export
program through September and flour export program well into September.
A The July 1 inventory of CCC totaled about 45.5 million bushels of wheat
and the flour equivalent of about 12.5 million bushels of wheat, or a total
of about 58 million bushels. In addition, purchases through July 22
totaled 28.7 million bushels, consisting of 22r4 million bushels of wheat
and 6.3 million bushels of flour in terms of wheat.
1948-Crop Prices Expected to Average
Moderately Over the Loan

Wheat prices to farmers in 1948-49 are expected to average moderately
over the loan level. Prospects for growing 1949 crops will again be an
important price factor. Crop prospects were important in strengthening
prices last fall when some winter wheat was seeded in dust, or seeded late.
During the winter, prices wore weakened by the large Australian crop,
unexpectedly good yields per acre in Argentina, and the improved outlook
for winter wheat in the Great Plains and in European countries.
In the 10 years since the loan program was started, prices have
averaged below the loan in only 3 years, and then in a range of 3 to 4 cents
(table 1). In one of these 3 years, 1938-39, the program wvas new and slow
in getting started with the net effect that only 86 million bushels were
pledged for loans. In 1941-42 and in.1942-43 prices were depressed as exports
were restricted by war and the carry-over reached all-time high levels.








WHEAT. NO. 2 HARD WINTER: CASH PRICE, LOAN VALUE.
AND CEILING AT KANSAS CITY, 1937-48


Il i lil I illi| | L iL i i i I ll l il II. I I a. I, l i .Li
JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JUIY JAN JULY JA* JULV JAI 'JUiV JAN. JULY JAW. JULtW JULYY JAN. JULY JAN JULY
1937-38 1938-39 1939-40 1940-41 1941-42 1942-48 1943-d4 1944-45 1945-46 !B46-47 1947-48 1948-49
MARKETING YEAR BEGINNING JULY
AVERAGE OF ALL BEPOREED SALES A ORDINARY PRBOTEIN


U.5 DEPARIMEhT Or aGRICULTuRE


. G. 41UII BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Wheat prices in 1948-49 may follow a pattern similar to that for each marketing
year from 1938 through 1942, when the wheat price started below the loan level and ad-
vanced substantially by spring. Largely as the result of a very large non-food demand,
the price in 1943-44 started above the loan level and by December advanced to about par-
ity, where the ceiling was established. From 1945 through 1947, the price was held
above the loan level by a very large export demand. In the chart above, the cash price
rises from the ceiling level because the cash price used includes the payment of premi-
ums for above-average protein. Although the ceiling prices permitted payment of these
premiums', they are not reflected in the ceiling shown in the chart.


WS-106


MAY-JULY 1948


CENTS
PEP
BUSHEL


240


MAY -L




H.,-
Table 1.- Wheat loan rate and actual price to growers, exports,
carry-over, and quantity pledged for loans, 1938-47

: : : : : : Quantity pledged
Year : Loan : Actual : Price : Net :Year-end: for CCC loans
beginning: rate : price : above : exports: carry- : : -
iJuly : : to : loan : 1/ : over : On :In warc-: Total
*.: : growers : : : : farms : houses :
: Dollars Dollars Dollars .Iil. bu. Llil. bu. 1iil. bu. iil. bu. Mil.bu,

1938 : .59 .56 -.03 109 250 23.8 61.9 85.7
1939 : .61 .69 .08 48 230 33.0 134.7 167.7
'1940 .64 .68 .04 34 385 50.1 228.3 278.4
1941 : .98 .94-1/2 -.03-1/2 28 631 118.9 247.4 366.3
1942 : 1.14 1.10 -.04 33 619 186.2 221.9 408.1
E.1943 : 1.23 1.36 .13 2/-70 317 45.5 84.7 130.2
1944 : 1.35 1.41 .06 111 279 47.8 132.6 180.4
1945 : 1.38 1.50 .12 392 100 22.2 37.5 59.7
S1946 : 1.49 1.91 .42 398 34 13.1 8.9 22.0
1-1947 : 1.83 (2.31) (.48) (485) 195 12.7 18.5 31.2
'1948 : 2.00

'Includes shipments to U. S. Territories of about 4 million bushels annually.
/Exports totaled 66 million bushels-and imports used to supplcuient domestic
imal feed supplies totaled 136 million bushels.


Of the 7 years in which prices averaged above the loan, the smallest
amount was 4 cents in 1940-41, when the carry-over rose considerably above
average. In 1939-40 .the average price was 8 cents over the loan, zuhcn the
carry-over was increased slightly by a crop of only 741 million bushels.
In the 3 years beginning with 1943-44, the U. S. shifted from a net importer
p *to a heavy exporter and the carry-over declined from 317 million bushels
> to 100 million. During these years, prices were 13,6, and 12 cents,
.respectively above the loan. In the past 2 years, when exports reached
. record levels, prices averaged over 40 cents above the loan. In 1946-47
-the carry-over dropped to only 84 million bushels. In 1947-48, the carry-
Sover remained below average but increased about 110 million bushels.

It is not likely that the average price in 1948-49 will exceed the
loan value by as much as in 1946-47 and 1947-48 because of the increase in
f- the size of the carry-over from the low levels of the past two years, and
the. plentiful supply and lower cost of other grains. However, on the basis
of cuirrnt prospects and price movements in previous years, it is expected
that the 1948 season average price will be moderately above the loan level.

No Wheat Iarketing Quotas
for 1949-50; 1949 Crop Will Be
Supported at 90 percent of Parity

Formal announcement that there will be no wheat marketing quotas
and acreage allotments for the 1949-50 wheat production and marketing year
was made July 15., This action was taken in view of the world food situation.


'


i





I.AY-JTJLY 1948 10 ..

Under the Agricultural Act of 1948 the present support at 90 per-
csnt of parity will apply to the 1949 crop. Beginning with the 1950 crop,
the parity formula is changed and a new price support schedule is introduced.
It is planned to describe these in detail and illustrate their affects in ;
the August Outlook issue of The Tfheat Situation.

International Wheat Agreement
Hot Ratified by U. S. and a
Number of Importing Countries

The International Wheat Council at a meeting in W-ashington on July 7
decid-d to abandon further efforts to apply the International Wheat Agree-
wo.nt to the 1948 production. The Agreement had not been ratified by the
Gov.. rnnont of the United States and by the Governments of a number of im-
porting countries by July 1, 1948. Subsequently, representatives of some
of those countries which had already ratified the Agreement withdrew be-
cause the guaranteed quantities of the countries which had formally ac-
cepted the Agruement were insufficient to insure its successful operation.

The meeting on July 7 agreed that later consideration should be
givtn to the possibility of considering an International Wheat Agreement
on the lines of the document signed in March 1948 to be brought into
operation on August 1, 1949. A preparatory Committee was appointed to
keep undcr review the prospects of concluding such a new agreement. This
Commititce consisted of the representatives of Australia, Benelux countries,
Brazil, Canada, Egypt, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United
S states.

THE JOPRLD .HEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND: On July 1, 1943, stocks in the four
principal e -porting countries were a record of 1,740 million
bushels. By July 1945, however, they were down to 824 million
bushels. In 1946 they werc 386 million and in 1947 were
379 million. Greatly increased disappearance was caused by
an accumulated demand brought on by the war and by poor crops
in many areas. Stocks on July 1, 1947 were the smallest sincb
1938, about 20 percent less than the 1935-39 average of 458
million bushels.

European Crop Outlook Continues
Favorable; Canadian Crop
Has DctLriorat:d

This year's production of bread grains in Europe, excluding the
Soviet Union, is expected to be about 35 percent higher than the small
production in 1947 tut still 13 percent below the 1935-39 average. I/


1/ This report for Europe indicates conditions as of about July 1, and is
based on information received by the Office of Foreign Agricultural
Rclatic.ons.






































1,450,000
-


284,000
4,485
10,000
4/ 19,205
14,828
1,260
398
8,500
763,000
6/885,000


12,506
200


7,000
62,250


135,000
24,000
8,000
95,000


5,500

18,000
5,597


6,100

20,078
11,384
1,200
1,560
-
510,000
860,000







The European wheat crop for 194,U is tentatively o7reoa.a- a ...
1,450 million bushels compared with 1,015 million budhels in 1947 and
an average of 1,588 million bushlt in the prewar years. Larger crops than
1947 are reported for all.oountrin.e of the Continent. Both inoreaped-yiel
and larger acreages are forecast for all countries, with only a few minor
exceptions, and account for the substantial increase. Rye production, fore-|V
cast at 600 million bushels, is aboui 20 percent larger than the low pro- -t
ductior last year out is still 20 percent less than the average for 1935-59.2
Recent reports received from Europe indicate wet conditions during harvest,',
which will lower quality but may not materially affect yields.

The wheat crop of 275 million bushels in France compares with 150 mil-3
lion bushels in 1947 and 287 million in prewar. In Italy production is .
estimated at 255 million bushels compared with 205 million in 1947 and -
27 million in prewar. The United Kingdom crop of 95 million bushels is over.
50 percent above both last year's and prewar. Details by countries are given
in table 2.

In the Soviet Union, the harvest of small grains is in full swing
in the southern regions and has begun also in the central and Volga regions.
By July 5, the area harvested exceeded by more than 5 million acres that
harvested on the same date a year ago. Good yields, especially of winter
wheat, are reported in the south where Soviet grain exports usually origi-
nate. However, the June drought apparently lowered yields in important spring
wheat areas along the Volga. The situation in Siberia, where harvest had not
yet begun, was still uncertain. On the whole, the present outlook for total
grain production in the Soviet Union, therefore, is about the same or perhaps
slightly less favorable than it was in 1947. It is much better than in 1946
when a largo area was affected by a severe drought and the acreage was smaller
However, even in 1947, Soviet production of the five principal grains (wheat,
rye, oats, barley, and corn) was about a fifth below the prewar average of
86.7 million metric tons.

Production in Canada may be no more than the 1935-39 average of 312 mZ5
lion bushels. Last year's production was 341-million. According to reports
of the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, the 1948 crop deteriorated steadily-frci
the middle of :ay through June as a result of persistent drought conditions.,.
At the end of June, condition as a percentage of the long-time average yields:
per acre, were reported as follows(June 30, 1347 in parentheses): All wheat
95 (125), fall wheat 97 (91), and all spring wheat 95 (125). lianitoba was
113 (126), Alberta 94 (123), and Saskatchewan 93 (127). Deterioration was
temporarily checked throughout most of the drought area by rains in the first:
week jf July. Subsequent rains are reported to have somewhat improved the
outlook. Of the total of 23.2 million acres reported for spring-wheat 2/
(slightly below the 23.5 million acres last year), 2.4 million is in abnitoba,
6.3 million in Alberta, and 14.4 in Saskatchewan. Based on current reports,
prospects indicate a somewhat better than normal crop for Hanitoba and also
three-quarters of Alberta, almost entirely in the western areas. Less than
2 million acres in Alberta is in only fair condition. In Saskatchewan, how-
ever, with the exception of eastern and northern districts which received ..
normal rainfall, prospects are only for a very poor to fair crop. It is
estimated that about 5 million acres may not produce half a crop.

WVoather has been generally favorable for the recently seeded crops in..
Argentina and Australia. A very srall acreage is again expected in Argentfr#

2/ Totl winter wheat acreage in Canada is less than a million acres..





;. '- .- 13 -


L European Import Needs Again Large,
Even with Improved Production

IN -- --- --- ---
On the basis of very tontativo figures on production (crops in
Argentina and Australia will not to harvested until December) wheat supplies
available from the 4 exporting countries, for the year beginning July 1, 1948,
*.may total about 825 million bushols. Other countries, including the Soviet
Union may possibly export another 75 million, making a total of about 900 mil-
,- lion bushels. World trado in wheat and flour in 1947-48 totaled about 950 mil-
lion bushels, with countries other than the 4 major exporting countries
contributing about 60 million bushels.

Roughly, it would be expected that about two-thirds of such a quantity
would go to European countries participating in the European Recovery Program.
While such an amount added to domestic production would not be enough to fully
restore per capital consumption to prewar levels, it would be about 15 percent
above the low level of consumption in 1947-48. In these countries, the current
tentative estimate of production indicates a bread-grain crop only bout
*. 5 percent bolrw the average production in 1935-39. However, before the war,
'countries in this group supplemented their own production by importing about
.i::13 million tons of wheat and rye, or over 25 percent of their consumption.
:'In addition to a substantial increase in population, these countries have a
*:low level of reserve stocks of all food products, and there is continued need
Ffor using food grains as a substitute for other foods which are short.

Table 3. U. S. exports (preliminary) of wheat and flour, 1947-48,
for non-military rcl'of, military relief, and
":* cash-paying countries I/


Item : Wheat Flour 2/ : Total

SMillion bushels Mi.1llion bushels Ei on Fbusle

on-military relief
oast UNRRA (Foreign Relief) 34.8 13.1 47.9
.Interim Aid (Foreign Aid) 36.5 16.1 52.6
Greek-Turkish Aid 4.6 5.1 9.7
ECA 21.5 7.2 28.7
Total non-military relief 97.4 41.5 138.9

itlilitary rolief total Y _3/125.5 A/46.9 172.4

||Cash-paying countries
'" By USDA : 72.6 0.4 73.0
By commercial firms 13.1 83.1 96.2
b Total cash-paying 85.7 83.5 169.2

Total of all exports 308.6 171.9 480.5

Comparable figure for 2 previous years in The hcoat Situation, issue of
SSngusat 1947. _/ Wheat equivalent. Y/ Of which about 23.0 million bushrls
,WaWerp paid for by the British. 4/ Of which about 9.0 million bushels ue:-e paid
ifor by the British.
i.." :' "
i ''':;:!.- : ::',:.:


w -Cr W tSr






Table 4.-Wheat, No. '2 Hard Winter: Pricq -Voan value and. ceiling
at Kansas City, 1937-48 i
(Data for figure 1)
Year: Weighted cash price of No. 2. Hard Winter Wheat at Kansas City I/ tLan0 .
S_________ value
beg-: -:va
in- : : : : : : : : : : : ..: at
ning:July :Aug. :Sept.:0ct. :Nov. :Dec. :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr; :May :June :Kanuaa
July: 2 : ty
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent"
1937:122.5 111.B 109.5 106.0 94.2 96.5 102.7 99.6 91.5 84.6 79.7 76.7 --
1933: 70.0 65.5 65.7 64.7 63.3 66.9 70.9 69.2 68.7 69.6 75.7 70.9 729
1939: 66.7 66.6 85.9 82.7 85.8 98.3 101.2 99.4 102.1 105.7 94.7 76.3 77
1940: 70.7 69.3 75.8 81.6 84.5 83.0 84.7 77.8 85.1 87.2 90.4 97.3 77 2
1941: 98.3 106.6 114.1 112.2 113.4 120.1 125.6 123.1 121.0 114.6 114.9 110.9 110
1942:107.9 111.2 120.3 120.5 121.1 130.5 136.8 137.0 139.9 158.4 138.1 137.0 127t
1943:140,1 139.8 145.8 152.3 156.4 162.8 164.8 163.0 165.2 164.0 163.2 155.6 137:'
1944:152.1 150.8 153.0 161.3 159.1 162.0 163.6'i65.8 166.3 165.7 166.7 168.2 150
1945:158.3 159.8 162.1 168.3 168.9 169.2 169.2 169.1 172.0 172.1 --- 186.1 153
1946:197.8 193.8 196.0 203.9 210.4 207.2 209.0 226.1 269.4 267.6 269.3 237.3 164
1947:229.0 232.0 265.0 295.0 300,0 301.0 303.0 251.0 245.0 245.0 240.0 229.0 202
1948: 223
17 Computed by weighting selling price by number of carlots sold as reported in the
Kansas City Grain Market Review. In this price, wheat of above as well as below
13 percent protein is included. 2 Loan rate is for wheat of less than 13 percent.
Ceiling became effective January 4, 1944 at $1.62 including 1-1/2 cents commission,.
basis protein of less than 13 percent. On December 13, 1944 it was raised to
$1.66, on May 34 1945 to $1.691, on March 4, 1946 to 172.1, and on May 13, 1946 to
187.1. On June 30, 1946 ceilings expired.

Table 5.-Wheat loan rates: At specific terminal markets, national average to
growers, and percent of parity, 1938-48
Year: EEounced lTan '-Tt aFtmarkets :Average :Average : Announced
beg-:No. 2 Hd. :No. 2 :No. 1 Dk.:No. 1 :No. 2 :loan an-:loan : rate per-
in- :Winter at :Hard :No. Sp. :Soft :Red :nounced :received: cent of
ning:Kansas City:Vinter at:at Min- :White at:at St.: to : by : parity i/
July: :Chicago :neapolis :Portland:Louis :growers :growers : .
:Do-llares bolars DollarD r -Dolr-Ts Dollars Dollars Dollars Percent.
1938: .72 .77 .81 .67 .73 .59 .53 52
1939: .77 .80 .87 .73 .80 .61 .63 55
1940: .77 .81 .87 .73 .81 .64 .655 57 -
1941: 1.10 1.15 1.15 1.05 1.15 .98 .98 85
1942: 1.27 1.32 1.32 1.21 1.32 1.14 1.13 85
1943: 1.37 1.42 1.42 1.34 1.42 1.23 1.25 85
1944: 1.50 1.55 1.53 1.46 1.55 1.35 1.38 90
1945: 1.53 1.58 1.55 1.49 1.58 1.38 1.345 90
1946: 1.64 1.69 1.66 1.60 1.69 1.49 1.445 90
1947: 2.02 2.07 2.04 1.98 2.07 1.83 1.84 90
1948: 2.23 2.28 2.25 2.18 2.28 2.00 ---90 .


Compiled from records of the Commodity Credit Corporation.
I/ Parity is determined by multiplying the base price to growers of 88.4 cents pe::
'bushel (average of 60 months from August 1909 to July 1914) by the Index of prices.
paid, interest and taxes (1910-14=100), which in mid-June 1948 was 251 percent, i


A




- 15 -


Table 6.-Wheat: Supply and distribution, United States, 19l5-48 i/
_- _S t =u t 1 -n -
;ing : : : : Total :Ex- : Domestic disappearance _
a : : : :Total : disap-:ports: :Proc- : In-.
:Stocks: Crop :Imports:supply : pear- :and :Totaleas" :seeddus-'eed
rs : : : : ance :ship-: :ed for: :tri-" /
: : : : : :ments: :food :al"
: Mil. Nil. M-I.-MIT. -MrT. "-Ri Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. il.


bu. bu.


f-Sept. : 279.2 1,108.2
.-Dec. :1,020.0
,-Mar. : 682.0
r-June : 332.1
LEr-JUNE : 279.2 1,108.2


ept. : 100.1 1,153.0
ec. : 949.3
: 642.3
: 308.6
JUHE : 100.1 1,153.0



-Sept. : 83.8 1,364.9
.*-Dec. :1,122.2
.-Mar. : 796.6
.-June : 479.6
rY-JUIE : 83.8 1,364.9


bu. bu.


1.3 1,388.-i
0.5 1,020.5
0.1 682.1
0.1 332.2
2.0 1,389.4


1,253.1
949.3
642.3
308.6
3/ 1,253.1


1,448.7
1,122.2
796.6
479.6
3/ 1,448.7


bu. bu. bu.


94.7
107.1
105.3
86.8
393.9


79.3
82.9
120.8
115.0
398.0


140.4
117.7
113.1
113.3
484.5


368.7
338.5
350.0
232.1
1,289.3



303.8
307.0
333.7
224.9
1,169.4



326.5
325.6
317.0
284.6
1,253.7


274.0
231.4
244.7
145.3
895.4


bu. bu, bu. bu.


125.4
137.4
134.8
90.9
488.5


224.5 130.0
224.1 148.2
212.9 128,.0
o109.9 /88 .0
771.4 494.2


186.1113a7
207.9 136.2
203.9 119.5
171.3 109.6
769.2 498.0


32.
27.0
1.5
21.4
82.0


34.2
28.8
1.6
21.9
86.5



29.0
38.9
1.6
21.9
91.4


3S,4b
3.0
1.6
3/
21.0


0
0
0
0
0



0
0.6
0
0
0.6


10i.1
64 C
106.8
33.0
303.9


60.3
47.1
833
0
190,7



24.4
32.2
82.8
39.8
179.2


195.0 1,241.8


1,436.8


PAnnual data 1930-41 in The Wheat Situation, Sept.-Dec. 1947, page 12;
j'terly data 1902-44 in issue of :;.rch-April 1948, m-ae 2.
:.Residual.

less than 50,000 bushels.

Preliminary.

7.2 million bushels estimated as in process from 1947 crop wheat included in
Lgure for July-Sept. 1947.







'Tblc 7.- Wheat: Weighted average'cash price, specified markets and dates 1947.

:All classes:- .'. 2 :- o10.-1 : No. 2 : No. 2 : Soft
ilonth :and grades li ard : Dark : Hard : Red : White :-
and : six : jTintor I/: N. Spring :Amber Durun: Wint-cr : Portland
date : markets :Kansas City:Minncapolis:i:innLapolis: St. Louis: 2/ .
.. 947 :1-943 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1948 :1947 :1949'

Ilonths:
Apr.l :42.62 42.61 ,2.68 $2.45 ;2.64 '$2.67 '2.47 $3.06 $2.74 $2.55 $2.34 $2.39
2ay : 2.64 2.60 2.69 2.40 2.68 2.62 2.49 2.98 2.70 2.44 2.38 2.36'::
June : 2.56 2.56 2.37 2.29 2.72 2.60 2.38 2.84 2.59 2.32 2.28 2.30.


iCo: ended :
Li.ay :
15
22
29 :
June 5
12
19 :
26 :
July 3 :
10 :
17 :


2.59
2.60
2.36
2.70
2.60
2.55
2.55
2.57
2.48
2.42
2.41


2.60
2.58
2.59
2.61
2.61
2.58
2.57
2.55

2.34


2.66
2.64
2.69
2.75
2.56
2.41
2.32
2.26
2.15
2.21
2.31


2.42
2.42
2. 39
2.36
2.39
2.31
2.26
2.30
2.24
2.22
2.21


2.63
2.66
2.69
2.75
2.68
2.63
2.72
2.36
2.86
2.90
2.95


2.62
2.61
2.62
2.63
2.62
2.60
2.60
2.60
2.53
2.46
2.44


2.35
2.42
2.54
2.56
2.41
2.34
2.34
2.39
2.35
2.46
2.47


3.00
2.95
2.96
3 .00
2.93
2.92
2.90
2.72
2.62
2.55
2.50


2.67
2.73


2.60
2.59
2.57

2.34
2.38


2.44
2.48
2.50
2.41
2.39
2.36
2.37
2.31
2.28
2.27


2.34
2.38
2.41
2.43
2.41
2.34
2.29
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.15


2.38
2.37 :
2.37
2.34
2.30
2.30
2.30-
2.30
2.27
2.21
2.18


V1 Bcg'.nning July 9, 1947 sales of hard and dark hard winter combined.
j Average of d._.il; cash quotations.


Table S.- Yiheat: Stocks in the United States on July 1,
avorages 1937-41 and 1942-46, and annual 1945-48 .

Stocks position Aerae : rag : 1945 : 1946 : 1947 : 1948
_: _1937-41 : 1942-46 : : : :
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushel s bushels bushels

Farn ................. 67,018 117,045 87,703 41,606 40,477 94,312P:
Interior nmills, cleva-
tors, and wnrhouses 37,797 65,401 42,129 8,376 10,116 29,683.
Commercial 1/ .........: 64,435 113,321 67,185 29,917 8,129 34,065
Merchant imills :and mill:
elevators ...........: 60,898 67,965 58,463 12,838 24,591 34,300:"
Commodity Credit Corp. :
wheat in transit and :
in steel and wood :
bins .............: -- 25.,366 23,700 7,351 500 2,530..
Tbtal ...........: 230,148 389,098 279,180 100,088 83,813 194,890:


1/ Commercial stocl:s reported by Production and Ilarketing Administration:and
Commodity Credit Corporation in transit reported by CCC. Stocks in other-po.
are cstimaits of Crop Reporting Board. CCC-owncd, other than in transit, in(
in estimates by positions.


sitions.
1 uded, -.


Annual 1941-44 in The Jheat Situation July 1947 page 9.


. .. ...
, : fs:".,, i







Table 9.- 'heat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries,
Friday nearest mid-month, Jan.-July, and weekly,
May-July 1948

:"" HARD WHSAT : L'D TE.T : SOFT WHEAT
:United States : Canada :United States: United : Aus-
Date :No. 1 D. N.Sp.: No. 2 Man.:1o. 1 D.H.W. : States :tralia
(Friday) : 13 pet. pro-:No. at Fort: Gelveston : To. 1 :
:tein at Duluth: William : j/ :Portland:

: Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollare Dollars
Friday mid-month:
M Jan. 16 : 3.23 3.34 3.19 2.91
Feb. 13 : 2.52 2.59 2.?45 2.10
Ear. 12 : 2.62 2.61 L.555 2.25 3.30
Apr. 16 : 2.79 2.69 2.615 2.40
May 14 2.62 2.71 2.525 2.37
June 11 : 2.57 2.55 2.375 2.30 --
July 16 : 2.40 2.47 2.73 2.18
Weekly
| Hay 7 : ?.60 2.68 2.515 2.39 ---
I May P1 : 2.60 2.64 2.50 2.39 ---
May 28 : 2.61 2.64 2.48 2.4 ---
I June 4 : 2.59 2.60 2.425 2.30
June 18 : P.59 2.56 2?.43 2.30 ---
June 25 : 2.575 2.56 2.42 2.30 ---
July 2 : 2.465 2.54 -.38 2.25
July 9 : .43 2.50 2.37 2.21 ---

7 F.O.B. spot or to arrive. 2/ Fort 'Jillian quotation is in store.

Table 10.- Rye: Supply and distribution, United States
1931-48

Year : ____ Supply : Distribution : :Total
beginning: :Pro-: : : : : :Alcohol:, : S- :disap-
July :Stocks:duc-:Im- :3Total:Food:Feed:Seed: spir-:Total :ports:pear-
/ :tion;ports: : 2/ : 3/ : its : : 4/ :ance
: .il. D.il. Nil. Mil. Nil. ;il. lil. hA:il. :'il. il. Mil.
bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu.

1934 :14.9 16.3 11.2 42.4 8.0 4.8 8.6 10.. ? 31.6 5/ 31.6
1935 :10.8 56.9 2.3 70.0 6.9 21.9 8.7 12.8 50.? 5/ 50.3
1936 :19.7 P4.2 3.9 47.8 7.0 13.8 10.0 11.6 42.4 0.2 42.8
I 1937 : 5.2 48.9 5/ 54.1 5.9 18.0 9.1 6.0 39.0 6.6 45.6
1938 8.5 56.0 5/ 64.5 6.8 19.P 9.7 5.5 41.8 0.8 42.6
1939 :21.9 38.6 5/ 60.5 7.0 20.2 7.4 .5.6 40.2 0.7 40.9
:' 1940 :19.6 39.7 1.4 60.7 7.1 19.9 8.1 6.7 41.8 0.2 42.0
1941 :18.7 43.9 8.8 71.1 7.8 19.4 8.3 6.8 42.3 5/ 42.3
1942 :29.1 5P.9 1.5 87.5 8.3 27.? 6.8 2.1 44.4 0.5 44.9
1943 :47.1 28.7 P.3 8,.1 8.7 33.5 5.8 4.5 52.5 0.6 53.1
1944 :31.0 22.5 4.1 57.6 7.8 19.8 5.4 10.z 42.3 3.1 45.4
1945 :12.2 24.0 2.0 38.2 6.7 9.2 4.5 P.- ?8.7 7.2 35.9
1946 : 2.3 18.9 1.6 22.8 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.;? 19.9 0.6 20.5
1947 6/ 2.3 26.0 5/ 28.3 5.6 3.0 5.C 6.7 22.3 2.7 25.0
19486 :3.3 26.8 30.1
g34*4, fa rnd commercial stock only.Beginni in 1943the figures a In da
i1 atorst'ocks.r EIt imatesbaaedn tade in res angea
of. IS?1 ie8aua Imemx-7 oes nour.j. s a u. J elimimey.








OFFICIAL BUSINESS

WS-106-8/48-3500
PERMIT NO. 1001


urIVER-.iryT OF FLORIDA

3 1262 088626394


UNIVERSITY OF FLA LItMR \
I REFERENCE DEPT
\ FIS-X G ,I n 3SVILL F SA j


**.................****.............................................................**S **

18 :


Table 11.- Wheat: Average closing prices of wheat
markets and dates,. 1947-1948


futures, specified


Chicagoa


1947 1948 ]


: Kansas City


-947


1948


.: 1iinneapolis
1947 1948
*________S ,* .. .


July futures


$2.51
2.40
2.34


2.36
2.55
2.38
2.45
2.45
2.3-6
2.26
2.28
2.44


$2.46
2.36
2.35



2.38,
2.36*

2.51

2.38 ."
2.37;


September Futures


2.16
2.29
2.35


2.29
6 ::

2..2..


Period :


Month,g
April
I'ay
June
Week
Ended
May


1


$2.22
2.29
2.19


2.25
2.25
2.27
2.35
2.36
2.2
2.16
2.15
2.17


$2.47
2.34
2.31


2.32
2.33
2.34
2.34
2.35
2.33
2.29
2.30
2.52


8
15
22
29
June 5
12
19
26


*2.15
2.22
2.11


2.19
2.18
2.1-9
2.26
2.28
2.20
2.08
2.07
2.09
1


$2.36
2,25
2.22


2.24
2.24
2.24
2.25
2.26
2.23
2.20
2.21
2.23


July 3
10
17


2.17
2.27
2.34


2.31
2.31
2.30


2.09
2.18
2.24


2.23
2.24
2.21


--k


...... i Im m .


Kansas CIEV


*




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