Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00006

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Full Text


1947 OUTLOOK ISSUE


TH E


.---- SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE "


WS 90


AUGUST 1946


ALL WHEAT AND WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE,YIELD,
AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES, 1919-46
ACRES I I I
(MILLIONS) SEEDED ACREAGE All wheat


60


40 ---- _'.--- _9-------_- -- ----
SWinter wheat*

BUSHELS
YIELD PER I
SEEDED ACRE 1 Winter wheat *
16

12 -sS.- --

t All wheat

BUSHELS
(MILLIONS) PRODUCTION

1.000 All wheat ___


800 ----


600 0 ...

% % \ '-Winter wheat*
400
1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949
*SEEDED PRECEDING FALL DATA FOR 1945 AND 1946 ARE PRELIMINARY


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 42549 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Seedings of all wheat for the 1946 crop, at 71.9 million acres, were 5 percent
above 1945 and 8 percent above the 1935-44 average. With production indicated as of
August I at 1,160 million bushels, the 1946 wheat crop constitutes another record.
Because of the importance of winter wheat in the total crop, production changes in
winter wheat and all wheat are generally very similar. The State wheat acreage goals
for 1947 total 71.7 million*acres--about the same as the actual seedings for the 1946
crop.





AUGUST 1946


Table lo-All wheat and winter wheat .Ac-': yield. and production
United St re;., 191-'h-:


All wheat,
Year
of Z ,' eld pei,
harvest acreage seeded :r..,1:tion
s o acre


1,000
acres

1919 s 77,o44o

o.1, 5 67,977
1921 67,6s1
1922 : 67,163
1923 64,590
1924 559 706
1925 61,738
1926 60,712
1927 : 65,661
19 2-. 71,152
192-S 67,177


1,000
Bushels bushels


12=3
12,.4
12o,
12.6
11,8
15,1
10,8
13.7
13-3
12.9
12z 3
1323
14.2

So 2
9=0
S.5

11,

13=2
1501
18,7 7
15,3
16, 3
16o1


952,097
s43 ,277
818i964
846.649
759,4982
g41,617
668, 700
832-213
875,059
914,373
824,183

S6, 522
941,540'
756;307
552 215
526,052
628, 227

873, 914
919,913
741, 180

813 305
943,127
974,176
8s41,023
19072,177
1,123,143
1,160,366


Winter Wheat


Seeded :Yield per
acreage seeded ; Production
acreage acre
g acre 5
1B000 1,000
acres Bushels bushels


51,391 14.6


45,505
45,479
47,415
45,4ss
38,638
40,922
4o, 6o04
44,134
4s, 451
44,145

45,248
45, 915
43,628
44,802
44,8 ;-
4745
49,9:6
57,845
56,464
46,153

43,325
45,671
38,072
37,782
46,169
50%123
52,096


13.5
13.
13=1
12.2
14,8 g
9,8
15,6
12.4
12.0
13.3

18,0
11.3
9.S
9.9
10.5
11.9
12,1
12,3

13.6
14.7
18,3
14.1
16.4
16.9


I/ Preliminary.


748,46o
613,227
602,793
571,i459
555,299
573,563
4oo, 619
631,607
548,188
579,066
587,057
633, ?9
825,315
491qi,511
378. 2S3
4389683
469,4 1
523,605

6 5 '

590, 212
670,709
696,450
531,481
758,930
823.177
S79, 894


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1961
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946


67,559
66,463
66, 21
69 o009o
64, o64
69,611
73 970
so. s14
78,981
629801

61,610
62, 332
59, 227
55,127
65,1439
68, 781
71,896






ws-96


THE WHE AT S I TUAT ION
-Including Rye-


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, August 27, 1946

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT ANID RYE

Under present conditions, growersundoubtedly will seed about the same

wheat acreage as they did for the 1946 crop. Goals established by state

committees for the 1947 crop add up to 71.7 million acres, practically the same

as the acreage seeded for the 1946 crop, and about as great as ream nable con-

servation will allow. With average development, this acreage would produce a crop

of about 930 million bushels. If domestic use totals about 730 million bushels,

a crop of this size would leave 200 million bushels for export or addition to

carry-over stocks. Exports of 200 -illion bushels in 1947-48 are likely unless

crops in other exporting countries and principal importing countries arebetter

than average. Accordingly the carry-over on July 1, 194g may not be much differ-

ent from that of July 1, 1947, when it may be about 275 million bushels.

Present wheat prices reflect a very large export demand. This demand,

in terms of wheat exports to deficit countries, probably reached its peak during

the past year.. Future exports are dependent on the increased use of wheat in

food-deficit countries and the maintenance 6f a high level of international

trade. While our pricing policy is important,in determining our-share of wheat

exports, the future level of wheat exports is very dependent on general world-

trade policy and the success of international tr-ade agreements. If exports are

not maintained at a high level, large surpluses will again accumulate in export-

ing countries, unless means are effective to curtail production.


- 3 -






Al',jST 19467 -14-

As the currently high exports -taper off, price supporting loans may again

become effective. If growing conditions are much above average for the 1947

crop and exports are substantially reduced, prices in 1947-4S will decline from

present levels. Whether they will decline to support levels depends on the

size of supplies in relation to demand. Present legislation provides for loans

to cooperating farmers at 90 percent of parity on ih eat harvested during the

2 years following the year in which the cessation of hostilities is officially

proclaimed.

A national rye goal of 2.4 million acres for harvest as grain in 1947

was announced in late August. Assuming average yields, this acreage would pro-

duce a crop of 29.5 million bushels. A crop of this size would provide for

normal food user. but it would d be necessary to continue to use less rye for feed

and spirits, and greatly to restrict exports.

SUMMARY OF THE CUT-R.UT "E.3AT SITUATION

Domestic wheat supplies in 1946-47 are.now estimated at over 1,260 million

bushels, consisting of a carry-over.of old wheat of 101 million bushels and a

prospective crop of 1,160 million bushels.. While the indicated crop is the

largest on record, the carry-over is the smallest in .20. years, except.for.1937.

As a ro.sult, total.supplies are below each of the past .5 years, alth'ui-h over

a. fourth above the 10-year,.1932-41 average.

Restoration on September 1 of the normal milling extraction -rate and an

increase in the goal for total United, States grain, exports in lO46-47 wIas

announced August 23. The quantity of wheat for food use is now estimated at 475

million bushels, which -'ith the other uses will result-in. total domestic disagear-

ance of about 710 million bushels. This would point to supplies available for

export and carry-over o-f about 550 million bushels. On the basis of present





ws-96 5,-

estimates, exports may total about 275 million bushels, which includes 15 to 20

million bushels from the 1945 crops. This would indicate a carry-over July 1,1947

of about 275 million bushels.

Wheat prices have returned to near June 30 levels after a spurt following

the lapse of the QPA,. The decline from early July reflected arrivals of new

wheat and continued improvements in the total wheat crop prospects. Beginning

July 1 the CCC offered to purchase wheat for export at the old ceiling level plus

earned markups; and by August 19 had purchased about 12 million bushels under

this program. The very large- export demand is still the principal price support-

ing factor. Increases of 3 cents in the 1946-crop wheat loan rates because of

higher parity prices were authorized August 7. The new rates will average

nationally about $1.L9 per bushel, compared with $1.38 for the 1945 crop.

Present prospe-cts are that the 1946 world wheat production, excluding

the U.SS.R. and China, may be at least 10 percent above the reduced production

in 1945, and about equal to the 1935-39 prewar average. Even though production

prospects are better than last year, large wheat imports are expected to continue

through 1946-47. With the exhaustion of large reserves which existed a year ago,

world wheat needs will have to come out of the 1946 crop. At present, the 1946

crop in Europe is better than the poor 1945 crop, although still not up to the

prewar average. Production in North Africa is sharply above that of the last

2 years, but still somewhat below prewar. Crop condition in Canada at the

end-of July, expressed as a percentage of the long-time yield per acre, was

126 percent, compared with 92 percent a year earlier. However, there has been

some subsequent deterioration from hot, dry weather. On the basis of increased

acreage and more favorable conditions for Argentina and Australia than a year

ago, prospects are for crops above the below-average outturns of last year and

perhaps. at about prewar levels.






AUGUST 1946


THE. :OUTLOOK FOR"MHEAT'

BACKGROUTD. .The acreage seeded to heat for the 1946 crop, aO
71.9 million a ores, was 5 percent above the 1945 acreage, and
8 percent a above the 1935-44 average of 66.3 million acres (table 1).
For 1947, a large acreage continues to be desirable because of the
very large demand for vheat and the elimination of the wheat surplus
in this and other exporting countries.

With Above-normal Export Demand Expected,
-The National Wheat Goals Is Again'Large

State wheat goals for 1947 totaling 71.7 million bushels were announced
August 14 by the Secretary of Agriculture. The State totals are only slightly
different from the indicated seedings of 71.9 million acres for the 1946 crop.
About 70 percent of the total will be winter wheat. These goals, balancing
production against needs, are guides to farmers in their 1947 crop planning.
Because of the low level of world food stocks, the proposed acreage is some-
what larger than would normally be desirable for proper conservation and
land utilization. State heat goals were recommended by the State USDA Councils,

Assuming an average of 13 bushels per seeded acre (the 1935-44 average
was 12.7 bushels) 71.4 million acres yould produce a crop of about 930 million
bushels. This is approximately the total of estimated- domestic requirements
and probable exports, so that the carry-over at the end of 1947-48 marketing
year may be about the sane as on July 1, 1947. If yields equaling those of
the last few years are obtained, resulting fn the fourth successive crop of
more than a billion busbels.(the fifth in our history), or if Canada and the
Southern Hemisphere countries .have good crops, thus further reducing our ex-
ports, the carry-over on July 1, 1948 might substantially exceed 275 million
bushels. Thus, it is possible that very large stocks could be built up in the
United States again in two years.

A desirable carry-over on July 1, 1947 would include, in addition to
working stocks, a substantial reserve which could be 4z:"?i upon to meet 1947-4B
demands if yields in 1947 should be below average. Present estimates of this
level are around 275 million bushels. It is to be recognized that we have
now had 6 consecutive years of yields very much above the long time average.
(table 1) and even above the average of the last 10 'years. -This reflects the
excellent growing conditions,.improvement in scad and cultural practices, and
the absence of widespread rust and other cro.p damaging factors. "W'hile such
conditions may continue, provision for less favorable years is desirable.

Domestic Wheat Prices in 1947-48 May
Decline from Prcsent" Levels; Support
Provided

Wheat prices have recently been at the highest level since 1921 (fig. 4)
reflecting a very large export demand. Eventually when'this extraordinary
demand subsides, price supporting programs will again become effective. I9
growing conditions for the 19.47 crop are much above average and demand for
exports arc substantially below those in 1946-47, wheat prices in 1947-48 will
decline from present levels. 1heother they will decline to support levels will
depend largely upon the size of the crop and the export demand. The Agricul.-
tural Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended by the Stalilization Act approved
October 2, 1942, provides price-support loans to cooperating farmers at 90







WHEAT: PRICE RECEIVED
PARITY PRICE, UNITED


BY FARMERS AND
STATES, 1909-46


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL

250



200



150



100



50



0


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 39712 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I
Wheat prices have been above parity since early May and in mid-July were $1.87
per bushel. Since 1920, prices received by farmers for wheat have risen above parity
In 1924-25, 1925-26, 1936-37, in addition to 1946. In 1924, foreign demand for United
States wheat increased as a result of a very small crop in Canada. In 1925, the crop
in the United States was small, and in 1936, United States supplies were greatly reduced
following 4 years of drought. In World War I, the world supply was small, compared with
demand, and prices in the United States rose considerably above parity. In World War
II, both the supply and the demand were very large.


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
PARITY PRICE NOT AVAILABLE BY MONTHS, 1910-22














WHEAT, NO.2 HARD WINTER: CASH PRICE, LOAN VALUE,
AND CEILING AT KANSAS CITY, 1937-46


JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN, JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY
1937-38 1938-39 1939-40 1940-41 1941-42 1942-43 1943-44 1944-45 1945-46 1946-47
MARKETING YEAR BEGINNING JULY
AVERAGE OF ALL REPORTED SALES A ORDINARY PROTEIN


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 43311


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2
In each marketing year from 1938 through 1942, the wheat price started below
the loan level and advanced substantially by spring. Largely as the result of a very
large non-food demand, the price in 1943-44 started above loan level and by December ad-
vanced to about parity, where the ceiling was established. Beginning in 1945, the price
was maintained above the loan level by a very large export demand. In the chart above,
the cash price rises from the ceiling level because the cash price used includes the
payment of premiums for above-average protein. Although the ceiling price permitted
payment of these premiums, they are not reflected in the ceiling shown in the chart.

Fig. 2.


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL






YIS-96 -9 -

percent of parity. Loans are effective on wheat harvested during the 2 years
beginning the first of January following the official proclamation that
hostilities have ceased (provided that producers have .notdis, pprovcd of
marketing quotas). If, at the time the loan is announced in Juno 1947, the
index of prices paid by growers, including interest and taxes, should be 199
as it nBs on July 15, this year, the average loan to growers would be .1.58
per bushel I/, compared ~rith the actual price of 1p.74 in mid-June and '1.87
in mid-July 1946. Formal announcement+ that there will be no wheat marketing
quotas as well as no acreage allotments during the 1947-48 wheat production
and marketing season was made July 16 2/.

The Long-Time Outlook for Exports

International trade prospects in the lonLgr-look ahead, dall depend
among other things on general trade policy among nations. In the 1920's,
before European countries dr-astically restricted their wheat and flour imports,
world trade and United States exports ,.ve e very much largeT than in the 1930's.
Our share of the wheat export market :ill depcmd largely on whether we meet
prices of other exporting countries.

The level of prices for (xport -wheat -hich would have to be met by the
United States in the years ahead, -.ill depend upon the marketing policy
adopted by the exporting countries. The doei.and for -.heat by deficit countries
undoubtedly reached its peak in 1945-46, and is expected to be less tn 1946-47
and still less in 1947-48. The falling off in demand by deficit countries wil
mean lower export prices. The alternative would be for surplus producing
countries to check expansion or curtail production in adjusting to "world de-
mand at given prices. If efforts to curtail production arc not effective and
eacreages in the various exporting countries approximate anything like prewar
acreages, production with aver-ge yiolds iould exceed annual use :hd large
carry-over stocks ..ould again accumulate.

Our share of the total exports also depend.r upon the distribution of
surplus supplies. eor as following the last ,ar, exports by the United Stats
are large. Then, as now, we h-d large supplio.' of wheat, and supplies in othe
countries were relatively small. In 1920-21 net exports of wheat and flour
by the United States totaled 313 million bushels; 3 ycars after in 1923 they
were down to 132 million. In each of the t-o years of large exports just
prior to the last war, 1937-38 and 1938-59, they were only about 105 million
bushels. In contrast, in 1920-21 exports of wheat and flour from Canada total-
ed 200 million bushels, 3 years later they -oere up to 344 million, and 1939-4D
and 1940-41 about 210 million bushels. In 1945-46, Urited States exports were
just short of 400 million.bushels. But after the extraordinary demand.
following thue 'ar is satisified, and supplies in other" countries have had time
to. increase--both in exporting countries and in importing countries--our export
may be expected to average well under 100 million bushels.

I Price in base period (J.uly 1-09 -June 1914) of 88.4 cents times index of
t. '1-99. tines 80 percent eqau-s '1.58.
2/ The Tripple A Act of 1938 provides for marketing quotas when the total
supply of wheat exceeds a normal year's domestic consumption and expotts by
more then 35 percent. A norr.al year's domestic consumption and- exports as
defined in the Act plus 35 percent was calculated, as larger than the estimated
1947-48 supply of wheat.







AUGUST 1946


- 10 -


THE CURRENT DOMESTIC "71EAT SITUATION

BAQXGROUIID .-In the 10-year (1932-41) pre ;.r period, the supply
and distribution of ,heat in continun.tal United Stwtes aver. god
per year ac follo'.'s, in million bushels: Total supply 982,
consisting of carry-over of old w-heoat 235, production 738 and
imports 9; total .disappearance 721, consisting of food 475,
feed 122, seed 81, and exports including ;-hin!,ents 43.

NThesat prices have -generd.ly adva-..ced ,since 1938
(table 4). Up to 143-44, the loan program vms the most
important factor in domestic ":,3.t prices. Beginning in
1943-44,, the extra dr-m..ind for vheat reculting from the nr
became thp important price factor. (table 5)

Total U. S. 'h-at Supplic- .m.allest in
6 Years;. but Carry-over Tuly 1, 1 97 Lay
B- I._::, ., :..."' ::.: -' :,_. -.. ..els

Domestic ?!heat supplies in 19D6-47 are no'.-' esti-a.ated at over 1,260
million bushels, ccsistin;g of a carry-over of' old -,he't of 101 millio-.
busi els and a prospective crop as of August 1 of 1,160 million bushels.
Thile the in-diat ed crop is the largest on r0ocra -- 37 million Iushels
above the record last yoar -- the carry-over is th- snmllest in 20 -ears,
except for 1937. As .a result, total supplies arc below each of the past
E years, although ever a fort" above the 10-ycar, 1932-41 average.

Restoration on September 1 of th" ncr-mal flour milln- extrantion
rate and an increase in the goal for total niti. S.trts grain exports in
1946-17 ra.s announced Au'ust 25 3/.Th tito of v-heat for food us" at the
higher extraction rate, but still rI.intaini distribution, -.would be <, out 475 -'.illo' b0shls. "'ith fed use still
estimated at' 150 .Lillion, seed at 82 million and none for spirits and b-cr,
total domestic disappearance is expected to be about 710 million buskels.
On the basis of indicated :upplice, thi -o!.'ld point to quanni tics *for
export ad carry-ovr oort a carry-over of about 550-:millic'n ushols. On the. b'osis of prelim-
inary figures, it is likely that -.hent exports :ill b'e bout 275 million,
includingl5to20r.illions exported frmr t.hoe 195 crop. This -culd indicate
a carry-over July 1, 1947 of about 275 :illicn bushels, --hich would compare
with the 1932-41 a-orace of 235 million bushcls. Corna .cnd corn products will
supply a major portion of the incr.scs in grain exports announced August "'..

Supply and distribution figures for .1930-45 wcru included in the 2May-
Juno issue of T. e "heat Situation as table 2,. and thu distribution -.os sho.n
in the same issue in charts on pa...s 1 and 2. As now slightly revised, (table
3), the figures for 1945-46, in million bushols, are as follows: July 1
stocks 280.9 crop 1,123.1, imports 1.9, rma.:ing total supplies 1,405.9; food..
496.4, feed 313.9 seed 82.1, industrial use 21.0, making total domestic dis-.-
tribution 913.5 and exports, including shipmronts to .3. S. possessions, 591U3.
Exports of J. S,. wheat and flour .by countries of lestin.tion are shovn in
table 11.


3/ Statement on page 12.





WS-96 11 -

Of the total indicated wheat crop as -of Au-uut 1-- 1,160.4 nillion-
winter wh1at nade u-p 879.9 million (table 1), and spring wheat 250.5 million.
The winter crop, as well as the totpl, is an all-time record.. Winter wheat
yields exceeded earlier expectations and timely rains in the spring wheat belt
raised the production outlook 70 million bushels abovo the July 1 estimate.
All spring wheat -oroduction is 6 percent less than last year's production of
300.0 million bushels, but is 24 percent above average. Production by classes
for 1946 with comparisons are shown in table 6.

.Theat Prices NeIear Levels of Juho j0:
Lare 'E:- ort Demand Principal Price
Su- -orting Factor

Reflecting the marketing of new crop wheat and continued improvement
in the crop, 'prices have declined front the high levels that followed the lapse
of the OPA and have now returned to near the levels of June 30(table 7).
The very large e_-mport demand is the principal price supporting factor. Beg-
iinning July 1 the CCC offered to -ourchase wheat for export at the old ceiling
level -lus earned markups, and by August 19 had purchased about 12 million
bushels under this -rogram. ith a 4-ment markup, the purchase price of o70. 1
Hard. Winter at lansas City is $1.90-5/S. As long as the CCC continues to buy
at thIe old cc-ilings plus -markur,-s, pricr s will be supported at that level. Another
Sstr n +~h' ;r.n factor, as evidenced L'. r-la-ively sm=11 receipts, in winter wheat
markets,is a reluctance on the part of n-n- growers to sell at this time. Also,
car shortage in the, ring whet St.t s hhs blocked many elevators and greatly
r-duced terminal receopts.

Following the signing of the OPA bill on Duly 25, the milling subsidy as
well as the ceilings on wheat were removed. On August 12, the OPA announced a
higher ceiling on flour; $1.11 per 100 pounds east of the Rockies and $1.24
higher in the Pacific area. .On August 23, they were raised 7 cents east of the
Rockies and 1 cent ih the Pacific area. The second' 1-cent advance in -the price
of bread was permitted to make up for the discontinued subsidy, the then higher
price of wheat, and provision for .increased costs and -irofit as provided under th,
new act D3y -ction of the Decontrol- Board on August 20, wheat prices continued
free of ceilings.

Certificate Plan Available to Producers
Who Sold 'he,-t TUnder O l0144.

WTheat producers who were required to sell their wheat under WFO 144 be-,
tween :--- 23 and July 1, 19V4 have been given an opportunity to receive from the
CCC a sales certificate under which they ma, choose a iatbr sales dete to deter-
mine the price of such wheat. This was announced by the Department of Agriculture
on July 29 in accordance with the provisions of the Price Control Extension Act.
Producers were required to furnish evidence -prior to August 25 of their sales
and to pay to the CCC through their Courty Agricultural Conservation Committees
the amount originally received for the wheat sold. Producers ih turn received
a certificate requiring the CCC to pay the market price for the wheat sold as of
any forward date the producer elects prior to April 1, 1947.

1946-Crop 7.1jeat Loan Rates Increased
Over Rate Announced in Juho

Increases in 1946-crop wheat-loan rates because of higher parity prices
were authorized on August 7 by the U. S. Department of Agriculture. The new






AUGUST 1946 12 -

rates will average nationally about $1.49 a bushel on a farn loan basis, up
3 cents from the average announced by the department on June 11. The l4k5-
crop average was J1,3S a bushel. The new rates reflect the legislative 90
percent of -pazity at the beginning of the mark ting year, July 1.

To achieve this result to farmers, the loan rates on wheat stored on
farms and gn country and terminal elevators 'have been increased 3 cents a
bushel above the rates announced on June 11.

The new schedule of loan values at selected terminal markets is as
follows: ITo. 1 Hard Winter Wheat at Kansas City and at Omaha $1.65; at
Galveston $1.73; and at Chicago and St. Louis $1.70. Ho. 1 Soft White or
Western White at Portland !1.60. No. 1 Heavy Dark Horthern Spring at Minn-
eapolis 1.67. No. 1 Red Winter at Chicago and St. Louis $1.70; at Philadelphia
and Baltimore $1.81; and atLcuisaville $1.72.

Durum Sup-olies Smallest Since 1935

Supplies of durum wheat in the. United States for use during the 1946-47-
season will be smallest since 1935. The carry-over on Julyl,1946 amounted
to only 5.1 million bushels; this carryover and the prospective 1946 crop of-
26.5 million bushels totals only 31.6 million bushels, which is far below the
demand of recent years (table 10). In the 5-years, 1941-45, domestic supplies
averaged 61.0 million bushels.

The July 1 carry-over wrs held as follows, in million bushels: 2.3 on
farms, 0.3 in country elevators, 1.6 in commercial storage, ahd 0.9 in mar-
chant mills.

Mill grinding of durum wheat during the 1945-46 year amounted to 22.2
million bushels,-about 4 million bushels below the grind in the previous year.
Durum used for feed, cereal manufacture and other uses accounted for 14.9
million bushels, while seed requirements took 3.7 million. Total disappearance
during the year of 4Q0.' million bushels was considerable larger than the in-
dicated supply for 1946-47.

The quality of the 1945 crop was generallysatisfactory from a milling
standpoint and was a marked improvement over that of the year before. For the
period September 1945 through June 1946. about 60 percent of the receipts fell
in the Hard Amber or Amber Classificatiohs compared with 40 percent the year
before. Seventy-five percent of the inspected receipts graded No. 2 or better.
Only about 3 percent graded Sample Grade compared with 20 percent the year
before.

Grain Eroort Goals Increased;
Domestic Limitations Eased

The Secretary.of Agriculture on August 23 announced an.increase in the
goal for total United States grain exports during the 1946-47 marketing year,
and partial removal of limitations on domestic use of grains. Changes as they
affect- wheat are as follows:
1. The 1946-47 export goal has been increased to a probable total -of 400 million
bushels of. all grains and grain products from a former goal of 250 million
bushels of wheat and flour.





- 13 -


2. The provision of War Food Order 1411, requiring 80 -oercent extraction of
wheat flour as compared with the normal rate of about 72 percent is trnminated,
effective September 1, 1946. Limitations on the quantity of flour which may
be -roduced for 'domestic distribution and. restrictions on the use of wheat
for other food and non-food purposes are being continued.
3. In view of the increased availability of feed grains and the increased
quantities of mill fepds which will be made available by the reduction
in the extraction rate, the use of milling-quality wheat by feed mixers is
being further restricted. Effective Octob'er 1, 1946, feed manufacturers will
not be permitted to use any wheat of milling quality in mnied feeds, except
in the western n States, where the quantity of milling wheat which can be fed will
be limited to 40 percent of the total grains used. These States include Calif-
ornia, Idaho, 'Tevada, Orogon, Utah, or Washington, or that part of the State
of Montana which is on or south of the main line of the Chicago, Milwaukee,
St. Paul, and Pacific Railroad or west of the continental divide. The use of
wheat of non-nillirg qualities in the manufacture of feed will be restricted
in all areas only by the over-all grain use limitation.
4. The prohibition against the use of wheat and wheat products in the production
of distilled spirits and in breweries is being continued.

Changes other than those affecting wheat include the following:

1. The quantity of corn and grain sorghums that may be used monthly by wet
and dry processors and food manufacturers and the quantity of grain that
may be used by feed manufacturers will be'increased, effective September 1,
1946, by 5 percent of the 1945 base-period use.- Also, all restrictions on
the purchasee of grains by individual farmers are being removed. In the
case of w.et processors the increase is authorized front 80 to 85 percent
of the average monthly use of the first 6 months of 1945. For food
manufacturers and dry processors, the increase is from 85 to 90 percent of
the average use during the 1945 calendar year. For feed manufacturers the
increase is front SO to 85 percent of the use in the corresponding month of
1945 .
2. For the quarterly period 1 beginning September 1, 1946, breweries will be
permitted to use grain and. grain products ih a quantity oeual to 85 percent
of the quantity used in the corresponding quarter of 1945. Since March 1,
1946, breweries have been limited in their use of grain and grain products
to 70 percent of their base. period use. In view of the continuing serious
shortage nf rice, a specific limit on the use of ri e which may be used by
breweries is being included in "ar Food Order 66. This provision will
linit the use of rice by each brewery to 85 percent of the quantity used
in the base period. Breweries have been restricted since -larch 1, 1946
in the qualities of rice which they could use in the manufacture of beer,
and they will now be limited on the quantity as well as the quality of
rice which can be used for this -purpose.
3. The quantity of grain (other .than wheat and.wheat products.) which may be
used by producers of distilled spirits is being increased, from the leve! of
approximately 2-1/2 million bushels per month, which has been in effect
in recent months, to a level of approximately 3 million bushels for September.






AUGUST 1946 14 -

THE CURRENT WORLD .'HIE,.r SIT-1.T.IOl

BACKGROUND.* Large world crops and restricted trade resulted in
the largest world wheat supplies on record in the period 1938-
43. War activity on the high soas reduced world exports of wheat
and flour to a low of about 365 million in 1942-43 compared with
650 million in 1938-39 and 625 million in 1939-40o With reduced
,exports, stocks increased. On July 1, 1943, stocks in the four
principal exporting countries reached 1,740 million bushels --
the largest July 1 stocks on record. By July 1945, however,
stocks had bewn reduced to 824 million bushels, and by July 1946,
to about 373 nillibn. This increased disappearance was caused
by demand brought on by the war and poor crops in Southern
Hemisphere countries. Stocks on July 1, 1946 wore the smallest
since 1938s and about a fifth loss than the 1935-39 average of'
458 million bushels (table 12).

World 1Whoat Prospects At Least
10 Percent Above Last Year But Reserves Exhausted,

Present prospects are that the 1946 world wheat production, excluding
the U.S.S.R. and China, may be a.t least 10 percent above the reduced production
in 1945 and about equal to the 1935-39 prewar average. Even though production
prospects arc better than last year, world wheat imports are expected to
continue larger than normal- through 1946-47. In the absence of large carry-
overs, world wheat needs will have to cone out of the 1946 crop.

Prospects in Europe are for a crop better than the very poor one in
1945 and 1942, although still not as large as those of other recent year
or the prewar 1935-39 average. Wheat crops larger than those of a year ago are
expected from nost areas, but the- largest gains arc indicated throughout the
Mediterranean area and in parts of western Europoc Whoat production ostinatos
show an incroaso of nearly 30 porcont over last year's small outturn in the
countries for which prolininary information has boon received (table 13). The
countries reporting represented moro than 60 percent of the Ehropean what
production in 1945.

In the Mediterranean area good-crops- were the outcome of both increased
seedings and more favorable weather than in 1945, when severe drought took a
heavy toll of the wheat crops.. The crop in Spain is about 80 percent above
the unofficial estimate of 1945.' Though also above the 1935-39 average, it
is still somewhat smaller than production in the pre-civil war years. The
outturn in Portugal was re 'rte at 21 million bushels. Later trade reports,
however, state that harvest results are falling short of early expectations
and that the production may fall short of 19 million bushels. Even at that.
figure, the crop would exceed the 1035-39 average and would be about double
the small 1945 crop. In Italy, what production osti atod figure is over
30 percent larger than the small production of a year ago. It is, however,
still somewhat less than the pro-war a ora;o production

In western Europo prospects wore substantially improved in 1946 over
a yoar earlier, as a result of moro favorable woathor and a somewhat loss
acuto fortilizor situation, An early season official ostin.Icto places the
.French crop of 225 million bushels, but it is bolivod the final returns may
show a larger crop.





- 15 -


Even at the present estimate, however, the outturn would be about 25 percent
larger than the crop in 1945. 'The crop in Belgium, officially placed at 12.6
million bushels, also appears to be conservative. '.he- t production in the
ITe'h lands is somewhat above last year's low outturn, but is still more than
25 percent below average. Good yields are expected in Switzerland with an
acreage maintained at the relatively high level of 1945.

Production in North Africa, although still slightly below the prewar
(1935-39) average, is shapely above the much reduced crops in 1944 and 1945.

No production figures have been received from northern European areas,
but the Scandinavian countries arc reported as having about average prospects,
with little change from last year's relatively good crops expected. In Fin-
lacd, however, the crop is expected to be below average, largely as a result
of excessive rainfall.

Conditions in central and eastern Europe are relatively the least
favorable on the Continent, The lack of rainfall over much of this area
in spring ard early summer is reported to h;ve caused extensive crop damage
though rainfall later improved the outlook in some parts. In Austria, the
wheot crop is below oven the small 1945 crop. Prospects in Czechoslovakia,
,-here the crop is only about average, are the most favorable of any of the
countries in this area. The outlook in both Poland and Germany is not promising.
Unfavorable weather in Poland, together with manpo'wrer and draft power shortages,
have affected prospects, unfavorably. Land reforms and large population shifts
are factors contributing to this outlook. In Germany, weather conditions'have
been :unfvorable abd fertilizer in short supply. Fertilizer has always been of
great importance in Germany's intensive cultivation.

In the 3alkan countries, crop conditions are generally more favorable
than they were a year ago. Most favorable conditions are reported for Pulgaria,
while those for Hungary appear least promising. The crop in Hungary, reported
at the low figure of 35 million bushels, is considerably larger than the 1945
harvest but not much more than a third of the 1935-39 average. Greater war
and postwar disruption of farm operation was reported from this country -than
from others of that area. Weather conditions were also less favorable than
in the other Balkan countries. The crop in R'u," now officiaLly placed at-
aboout 70 million bushols, would be only half of the 1935-39 average and
slightly smaller than th: crop believed to have been harvested last year;
earlier prospects had pointed to a good harvest in that country and in
Yugpslavia. Production in Greece, reported at about 24 million bushels, is
below prewar but compares favorably with the production believed to have been
harvested in 1945.

The condition of the crop in the United King:dom is reported at 35-6
bushels per acre compared with 34.5 bushels a year ago. The area is 1.92
million acres compared with a prewar average of l,g4 million acres and 2.27
million acres in. 1945, The crop in Eire is slightly above a year ago and about
2- times the prewar volume. Wheat growing was greatly expanded during the war
'idl e Eire was cut off from usual imports.

The crop in the U.S.S.R is expected to be considerably below the prewar
level. The acreage is smaller' and overall yields, based on latest conditions
reports, are not expected to exceed the low average of recent years.





AU:--7T 1946 16 -

In the Far East, where rice is the food staple, conditions have not been
favorable for planting and the acreage planted in such important rice exporting
countries as Burma and Sia-j will be well below nornval. A near -average wheat crop
is estimated for several north China Provinces, ,with below-average outturn in
various central and west China Provinces.
The condition of spring -heat in Canada a.t the end of July, expressed as a
percent of the long-time average yield- per acre, w-as 126 percent compared with 122
a month earlier and 92 a year earlier. According to c-urrent reports, the c,:.-.ition
reached its peaked in late July. In early August hot, dry weather caused the crOp to
deteriorate. During the week ended August 13, however, generally light to herv--
rains, accompanied by cooler weather prevailed throughout the provinces and hcle-d
prevent further deterioration. The first official crop report w-rill be isZuel
September 12. When prospects were at their height it was considered. that the crop
might approach 500 million bushels. The deterioration may have reduced prosp ects
by possibly 50 million bushels. The area seeded to <--'eat in the Prairie Provinces
was estimated to be 25.2 million acres compared with 22.6 million acres in 1C45.
The first estimate of the Canadian winter whe-t crom is 16.1 million bushels copmIed
with 20.1 million a year ago. The acreage of winter ''heat remaining for harvest was
546 thousand compared with 675 thousand a year ago.

The area seeded to wheat in Australia for hr.rvest 1fte in 1946 is expected to
be over 17 million acres, 'rhich is well above the 11.5 million acres last year, and
about at the average of the 5 prewar years. Dryness is still causing concern in
northern ITew Wales, and Queensland, but elsewhere moisture is generally adequate.
In Argentina the acreage seeded is estimated at 16.55 million acres co:;-.reI with
14.23 million a year ago end the 1935-39 average of 1g.66 million. Moisture supplies
are anple, but excessive amounts have delayed seedingl in some areas. On the basis
of increased acreage and more favorable conditions for these Southern Eemisnhere
countries than a year ago, prospects are for crops abova the poor crops of last year
and perhaps at about prewar levels.

United Kingdom, Canada Sign
:Four-Year heatet Contract
A 4-year wheat agreement between the United Kingdom and Canada was signed on
July 24. It provides for the purchase of Canadian h-feat by the United Kir;-don as
follows: In 1946-47, 160 million bushels at $1.55 a bushel; in 1947-4S, 160 million
bushels at S1.55 a bushel; in 1949-49, 140 million bushels at a zir.i': of $1.25 a
bushel, the actual price to.be negotiated by Decembor 31, 1947; an): in 1549-50, 14O
million bushels at a minimum price of $1.00 a bushel, the actual price to be nego-
tiated by December 31, 1949. Part of the .wheat may be supplied in the form of flour.
The agreement is subject to modification to conform vith any international agreements
1: .r concluded.
Canada Announces YTew
Wheat Price Policy'

The- Canadian government recently announced di scontinuance of the o-e:d export
wheat price of $1.55 per bushel, which was announced last Seiptember. Under the new
policy, export sales to countries other than the' Unite Ei.- io are expected to be
made at prices roughly approxirmting United States export price, 'ith the W1eat
Board continuing as the sole marketin, agency for Cpanadian wheat. In line with the
new policy, effective August 2, the price of flour exports to countries other than
the United Kingdom in terms of "he.t, were as follows: $2.05 for No. 1 Northern,
$2.02 for iNo 2, and $2.00 for No., 3, basis in store Fort Willian or Port Arthur.




Vs-96


Guaranteed prices to western producers have been raised. 10 cents per
bushel, with the initial price now placed. at $1.35 per bushel, basis No. 1
Northern in store Fort William-Port Arthur or Vanceuver. That rate, which is
placed as a minimum return to producers until July 31, 1950, has been made
retroactive to cover marketing made since August 1945. The adjustments on
1945-46 deliveries will be made through a flat payment of 0l cents per bushel
on all grades. Any profits accrued from sales of the 1945 crop after the
flat payment has 'been made will be placed in a 5-year pool along with profits
from the next 4 crops. Distribution of the fund will be made after the termina-
tion of the pool on July 31, 1950.

The United Kingdon-Canada contract was an important element in the new
policy allowing western growers higher initial payments than had prevailed pre-
viously. Growers will continue to share market profits through participation
certificates. Under the terms of the new plan, the price of wheat for domestic
consumption will aitinue at $1.25 per bushel, with the Government continuing its
payment of a drawback to millers covering the difference between 77-3/S cents th1
actual cost to millers and $1.25 per buahel paid by millers for wheat.

Australian Government Guarantees Growers
Fixed Price for 5 Years

The Australian Governmenit has recently passed a '-heat stabilization bill
which guarantees growers a fixed domestic price for five years, which at the
present time is below the price at which wheat is exported. Growers will be re-
imbursed to the extent of 40 percent of the difference between the fixed price
and the export level, with the balance to go into a stabilization fund to support
the guaranteed price.

THE RYE OUTLOOK ATND SITUATION

A national rye.goal of 2.4 million acres for harvest as grain in 1947 was
announced in late August. This would be a-third larger than the 1.9 million
acres harvested in 1946, but a third below-the 5-year (1937-41) average of 3.7 T
million acres. The acreage of rye harvested for grain has been declining
steadily f6r a number of years, largely under the influence of better profit
opportunities in other crops, to the point where the acreage harvested in 1946
is le-ss than one-half the acreage harvested in 1937-41 (table 15). While the
goal for 1947 is not ss high as would be considered adequate for all needs under
the circumstances, it is deemed as large as feasible.

Assuming an average yield of 12.2 bushels per harvested acre on the 2.4
million acres, a crop of about 29.5 million bushels would be produced. In 1947-
4g their. will be a desire' on the part of U. S.. civilians to resame- a normal con-
sumption of rye for food following the limited supplies available in 1946-47.
It is-considered that the'goal would provide for this as well as for seed, but it
would-be necessary to continue to use less than average quantities of rye for
feed and spirits and to greatly restrict exports. Should production prove to be
larger than 295 million bushels, or should imports increase the supply, in-
creased utilization in the form of spirits or exports, or an increase in stocks
to more normal levels would be possible. Atproduction less than 29.5 million
bushels in 1947 would result in reduced use for human food or for livestock feel.-
PMice ceilings on rye were suspended by the decontrol Board. Under such
conditions, prices will reflect the probable short supplies and bring relatively


- 17 -





AUGUST 1946


- 18 -


good returns to rye producers. Tables 14 and 16 show m-e: prices over a period
of years.

Rye supplies indicated for 1946-47 total only 23..8 million bushels, the
smallest since 1881, and only a little over half of the quantity in 1945-46
(table'2). July 1 stocks at 2.4 million bushels were the smallest on record
and the crop indicated at 21.4 million bushels is the smallest since 1934. With
supplies as small as this, all domestic uses other than seed will be greatly
curtailed and exports kept very small.

The supply of rye in 1945-46-totaled 41.1 million bushels, consisting of
a carry-over of 12.7 million bushels, a crop of 26.4 million, and imports of 2.0
million. Disappearance -- the smallest in 11 years -- is estimated, in million i
bushels, to have been as follows (10-year, 1935-44, average in parentheses)" Food
6.7 (7.3), feed 11.6 (21.8), seed 4.9 (8.1), alcohol and spirits 8.3 (7,2), and
exports 7.2 (1.3). Reflecting the sharply reduced supplies and the urgent do-
mestic and foreign demand, rye prices advanced sharply during thepast season to
the highest levels since 1918.

Supplies of rye in Canada available for export during 1946-47 are low.
Carry-over stocks on August 1 were only 0.7 million bushels, and the fall-
seeded crop is estimated at only 5.1 million bushels. The estimate for the
spring sown crop is not available as yet, but production is small, amounting
to ..only 1.8 million-bushels in 1945.


Table 2.- Rye: Supply and distribution, United States, 1934-46

Year : Supply : Distribution : : Total
begin-: : : : : : Feed :Alcohol: Ex-: disap-
nin- 'Stocks.Produc-. Food Feed ports
ning : nrmprtsoTotal 2: / Seed :-spir-:Total p : t pear-
Juy I : Vtono 2 : its : : / dance
:Mil.bu Mil.bu Mil,bu Mil.bu Mil.bu Mil.bu Mil.bu Mil.bu Mil.bu Mil.,bu Hil.bu

1934 : 14.9 16.3 11.2 42.4 8.0 4.g 8.6 10.2 31,6 5/ 31.6
1935 : 10.8 56.9 2.3 70.0 6.9 21.9 8.7 12.8 50o3 _5/ 50.3
1936 : 19.7 24.2 3.9 47.8 7.0 13.8 10.0 11.6 42.4 0.2 42.6
1937 : 5.2 48.9 5/ 54.1 5.9 18.0 9.1 6.0 39..0 6.6 456
1938 : 8.5 56.0 5/ 64.5 6.8 19.8 9.7 5.5 41.8 0.8 42.6
1939 : 21.9 38.6 5/ 60.5 7.0 20.2 7To4 -56 40.2 0.7 40.9
1940 : 19.6 40.0 1.4 61.0 7.1 20.2 8.1 6.7 42.1 0.2 42.3
1941 : 18.7 45.4 S.8 72.9 7.8 20.2 8.5 6.8 43.3 5/ 43.3
1942 : 29.6 57.7 1.5 88.8 8.3 31.S 7.5 2.1 49.7 0.5 50.2
1943 :'1/47.1 30.5 8.3' 85.9 8.7 35.0 6.1 4.5 54.3 b,6 54.9
1944 : 31.0 25.5 14.a 60.6 7.8 20.9 5.8 10.3 44.8 3.1 47.9
1945 6 12.7 26.4 2.0 41.1 6.7 11.6 4.9 8.3 31.5 7.2 3S.7
1946. 2.4 21.4 5/ 23.8

1 1934-42, farm and commercial stocks, only. Beginning in 1943, the figures also
include interior mill and elevator stocks..
2/ ,stimiates based on trade information related to the Census of 1939.
3/ Residual item.
Includes flour.,
Lessthan 50,000 bushels.
Preliminary.








RYE: ACREAGE, YIELD, PRODUCTION, FOREIGN
TRADE, AND PRICE, 1900-1946


ACRES
( MILLIONS)

6


4


2


0
BUSHELS


16


12


8
BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)

75


50


25


0
BUSHELS
( MILLIONS)

40


20


0


ACRES
( MILLIONS)

6


4


2


0
BUSHELS


16


12


8
CENTS
PER
BUSHEL
150


100


50


0
BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)


* 1900-1907 DEC. PRICE


U.S.DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


DATA FOR 1946 ARE PRELIMINARY


NEG. 46025 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 3


Rye acreage harvested in 1946, totalling 1.8 million acres, was the smallest
since 1881. Yield was about equal to the average of recent years. Production totalled
21.4 million bushels, the smallest since 1934. With urgent domestic and foreign de-
mand, rye prices in 1945-46 averaged the highest since 1920. The acreage of rye has
been declining steadily for a number of years. Rye yields were quite stable until
1946, but have varied considerably since the expansion in acreage in the Plains States,
which began during World War I. In contrast to 1918-23, when exports were very large,
imports have been larger than exports in 9 of the past 13 years.


1920 1925 1930 1935
YEAR BEGINNING JULY




RYE: PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS AND PARITY
PRICE, UNITED STATES, 1908-46


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
PARITY PRICE NOT A AVAILABLE BY MONTHS, 1908-22


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


MCO AR.ao flub Or... neaan.r urn.


FIGURE 4..
Prices received by farmers for rye are currently above parity, reflecting
strong demand for very limited supplies. Since 1921, rye prices have been above parity
for only two brief periods, in 1924-25 and 1936-37. The 1924 crop in Europe was very
small and the demand for rye from the United States, In that year, resulted in the
largest exports in our history. In 1936, production In the United States was greatly
reduced by the drought.


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL

200



160



120



80



40



0


L ECONOMICS




Table 3.- Wheat: Supply and distribution, United States, average 1937-41 and annual 1942-46 1/


Marketing
years
by
quarters:.


T--- Spply Expt : Distribut io-nI rn
~: :: ; Total : Exports: Domestic -r ,rance .
, ... rPn+.til rl .a'- in r .....


* Stocks
:


Crop Imvorts Indus-
: supply : pear- ship- Total : Food Seed : t


Feed 2/


: ane : meits
:Mil. b'u. Mil. bu. Mil. bu, Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu, Mil. buh. Mil.bu. Mil. buo Mil. bu.


Av. 1937-41
July-Sopt....
Oct.-Dec.....
Jan.-Mar.....
Apr.-June ...
JULY-JUFLE...:
1942-43
July-Sept....:
Oct.-Dec.,....:
Jan.-Mar.....:
Apr.-June ....:
JULY-JUIE ..:
1943-.4 :
July-Sept....
Oct.-Dec.....
Jan.-Mar.....
Apr.-.June ...:
JULY-JUlE .
1944-45
July-Sept....
Oct.-Dec.....:
Jan.-Mar ..... :


230.2
884.9
702.4
512.2
230.2

632.1
1,379.9
1,15 :-.4
901.2
632.1

621o7
1,114.9
8,18.0
544.8
621.7

316.7
1, 088-3
834.7


858.3 o.6
S 0.1
0.2
0.8
858.53 -1.7

974.2 0.1
3/

0.9
974.2 1.0,

841.0 19.0
2.9.1
41.1
46.7
841.0 136'.0

1,072.2 25.9
S1.
1.5


1,089.1
885.0
702.6
513.0
1,090.2

1,6o6.4
'1,379.9
1, 15C.4
902.1
1,607.3

1,481.7
1,144.0
859.1
591.5
1,590.7

1,414.8
1,099.7
836.2


204.2
182.6
190.4
173.0


226.5
* 221.5
.257.2
280.4
' 985.6

366.8
3'26.0
314.3
274.9
1, 282.0

326.4
265'.0
273.2


16.4
14.6
18.2
16.8
-66.0

7.6
5.I
7.7
14.1
34.5

.9.4
19.2
19.7
17.1
65.4

15.8
19.2
33.5


187.8
-168.0
172.2
156.2
684.2

218.9
216.;4
249.5
266.3
951.1'

357.4
30o6.8
294.6
257.8
1,216.6'

310.6
245.8
239.7


Apr.-June 1..: 563.0 3.2 566.2 285.4 7060 2
JULY.-JUTE ..: 316.7 1,072.2 42.0 1,430.9 1,150.0 138.5 1,0
1945-46 j
July-Sopt.... 280.9 1,123.-1 '1.3 1,405.3 374.9 95.0 2
Oct.-Dec. ...: 1,030.4 0.5. 1,030.9 "341.1 107.2 2
Jan.-Mar..... 689.8 0.1 689.9 353.2 105.3 2
Apr.-June ... 336.7 ." ./ 3.36.7. 235 2 13.7 1
JULY-J-NE N 2.:...9 1,123.01 1.9 1,405.9 1,304.4 391.1 9
July-Sept ...: 101.5 1,160.4 1;261.9 ___
(Footnotes on ,.xeP.23)


15.4
11.5

79.9
33.9
48.0
51.5
13.3


126.4
122.5
116.7
113.9
479.5

130.4
143.o3
149.2
114.1
537.0

134.4
137.4
149.2
122.1


136,3

137.4
136.6
5v2.2

127.8
140.3'
135.3
.92.9
496.3


29.6 2/
24.2 2/
1.5 0.1
20.5 0.3
75'.S 0.4

24.2 3.4
20.3 7.2
1.4 1E6. .
19.1 2717.
65.0 54.3

29.7 27.0,
25.0 24.7
1.5 26..3
21.3 30.8
77.5 10S.8

31,9 31ol
26.9 22.E
1.5 15.6
S20.4 12.s
80.7 82.3

32.4 16.4
27.3 3.0
1.5 1.6
.20.9 o
82.1 21.0


31.8
21.3
53.9
21.5
12 8.

60.9






119.7
117.6
83.6
27.2.


54.2

45.6
296.3

103.3
63.3
109.6
37.7
313.9




AUTUST 1946


Table 4.- Average price per bushel of wlieot received by: farmers and -
parity priceUnitedI States, 191-46 1/


S(D.hta for figure 1)
Year: : : : : : :


* S -


S !,;% eti -


be- :July :Aug.: Sept.: Oct.: ITov.: Dec.: Jan.? Feb.: Mar.; Apr.: May : June: year
gin-: 15 : 15 15 5 : 15 15 5 15 15 15 15 15 15 : 15 : aver-
ni..: : : : : : : : : -

:Cents Cents Cents Centgs Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
: Avere:- Price 2/
1931: 36.3 5I 36.1 o50.5 ".1 4. i2 31 4.2 41 2. 537.3 39.0
1932: 35.6 '3.5 37.4 34.6' 32.5 31.6 32.9 32.3 34.5 -44.8 59.0 58,7 38.2
1933: 86.9 74.7 7L1 63.6 71.1 67.3 69.4 72.0 70.9 68.7 69.5 78.9. 74.4
1934: 7.Z 8-9.6 922 85 g8.1 9.0.6 9o.3 87.9 55.5 90.2 T7.5 77.3 s4.g
1935: 76.4 go.g- S51. 94.z8 7.5 '8.9 92.0 91.1 89.3 85.4' -l,6 79.9 83,2
1936: 94.1 104.g5 24.3 o06.5 1o6.4 114.5 123.6 124.9 123.2 126.6 11g.3 10S.9 102,5
1937:112. 99.4 5.0 gg.7 51.9 93.6 gz.6 86.6 S0.3 75.0 71.4 69.7 96.2
193g: 60o. 50.7 52- 52.2 52.0 53.6 57.1 56.9 56.7 57.5 63.0 62.-53/56.2
1939: 55.7 54.5 717 70.3. 73-1 82.4. g4.5- 54.1. -5.0 g.9. g-0.7 67.4 69.1
1940: 61.4 60.1 ;6 6,.2 72.5 71.5 73.0 67.g 71.5 76.0 79.4 83.1 63,2
1941: r5.6 58.5 VS 91,0 93,4 1022 106.1 104,9 105l1 99.7 .9.- 95.7 94i5
1942: 94.6 95.4 1iCg 103.5 104.4 110.3 117.5 119.5 122.7 122.3 122.5 124.0 109.'
1943:126.0 127.0 130o0 13750 137.0 143.0 146.0 146.0 14G6o 147.0 1L7.0 143.0 136.0
1944:139,0 135 13 135.0 o0142.o 143.0145. 0 146,o 147.0 14'g.o 149.0 149.0 150.0 14l.O
1945-:146.o 145,0 15o0 151.0 153.0 154.0 154.0 15510 1558.0 15g,0 170.0 17h.0 1h.o 0


46 7.0 Par

1931:124.6 1,229 121...120,2 .115.5 115.-5 11
1932:105,7 105.7 107.g107,0 10,1 105.2 10
1933:105.2 108l.7 1123.5112.3 112.3 112.3 10
1934:113.2 115.5 116.7116.7 116o7 116.7 11
1935:114;9 114.0 1132113.2 112,3 112.3 11
1936:112.3,114.9 1149 .114,9 14.9 *115.5 11
1937:119,3 115.5 1167 115.8 114.9 114.0 11
1933:111.4 110.5 10o6 109.6 109.6 109.6 10
1939:100.7 107.8 110. 110.5 110.5 110.5 11
1940:110.5 110.5 11Q5 110.5 110.5 111.4 11
1941:115. 11g5. 1211 122.9 124.6 125'5 12
1942:133.5 133.5 1344 135.3 136.1 137.0 13
1943:145.0 145.0 1450 146.0 147,0 14S.O 14
1944:150,0 150.0 1500 150.0 151.0 151.0 15
1945:153-.0 153.0 154.0155.o 155.0 i56.0 15
1946:176.0


ity Price ...
T.O-b 1 112,3 11l.4 109. ~1F0. 7
0.g loo1, 99,9 loc.s5 10.g 101.7
9.6 111.4 112.3 112.3 113.2 113.2
4.9 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 115. .
1.4 111,4 110,5 110,5 110.5 109,6
6.7 11.5 11S.5 120.2 120.2 120.2
4,o0 114.0 11.2 113.2 113.2 112.3
8.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 1098.7
0.5 110,5 111.il 111.4 111.4 111,4
0.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 112.3 11,4.9
7.3 129.1 130.8 131.7 132.6 132..6
7T9 139.7 140.6 141.4 143.2 144.1
9.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 150.0.. -
2.0 152.0 153,o0 1.0 153.0 153.:0
6.0 15-.0 159.0 160.0 164.o 166.0


13 Data for earlier years in The "heat Situation as follows: 1909-21, November 194l,
pages 12 and 13; 1922-3Q, Auv--st 1945, peage 2021..c .
2/ iiontriy prides by St'tes. .eig-.ted by production, to obtain a price for the United
Strtos; average for year obtained by weighting State-price averages for the
marketing year.
SBori -nI:'. 1938.inclhaies unredeemed -loans at- average loan ;value.
Preliminary .- .
Co:_putatioh of parity price:- Average price in baso period (August :1909 to
July 1914) x monht'hly index of prices paid by farnmrs, interest and taxes. Ex-'rplo
for July 1946 = 5S.4 x 199 = 176.


- 22 -


-





ws-96


- 23 -


Table 5.-Wheat, No. 2 Hard T.inter: Price, loan value, and ceiling at Zansps City,
19 7- 4 ..
: (Data f6r figure 2)

Year: Weighted cash-brrce of 2-Hard T enter he.t.at t an as City 1/ .Loan
beg-: __ -. ___ :value
in- : : : 5 .: .:. -- : : : : at
ning:July :Aug. :Sept...Oc;t.: NIov. Dec'. :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :AAr.. :May :June :Kasaer
July: : : : : : : : : : City

:Cents Cents. Cents- Cent~- Cents Cents Cents'Cents'Cents Cen.ts Cents Cents Cents

1937 :122.5 111. 109.5 106-o 94.2 96;5 102.7 99.6 91.5 84,6 79.7 76'7 ---
1938.: 70.o. 65.5. 65.7. 64.7 63.3 66.9 70.9- 69.2 6g.7 69.6 75.7, 709 72
1939.: 66.7 64.6. 85.9. 82.7 85.* 98.3'101.2 99.4 102.11l05.7 94.7. 76.3 77

1940: 70.7: 69.3 75.8. 81.6 14.5- 3.o0 54.7 77.8' 85.1 87,2 90.4' 973 77
1941 9 .3-106.6.114.1 112.2 113.4 120.1 125.6 '123.1 '121..0 11i.6 114.9 110.9 110
1942 :107.9 111.2 .120.5 3120 5 123.1 130.5 -136.8 '1370 139.9 13.4 138. 8.1 137 1943 .: 140.- 139.8 145.8 152.3 196.4 162 s8 164.8 '163.:0 165.2 164.0 163.2 155.6 137
1944 .:152.1-150.8 153.0 161.-3 159.1 *162.0 163.6 165. "166.3 165.7 166.7 168.2 150
1945 :158.3 159.8 162.1 168.3 16,.9 169.2 169.2 169.1 172.6 172.1 --- 186.1 153.
1946 :197.8 164

C Commputed by weighting selling price by number of crrlots sold as reported in
the Kansas City Grain idarket Review. In this -rice, -'heat of abovee as well as
below 13 -percent protein is included. ;
2/ Loan rate is'for wheat of less than 13 percent. Ceiling 'oeme effective Jan-
uary 4," 1944 at. 1.62 including .1-1/2 cents commiss-ion-, basis -rotein of less than
13 percent. On December 13, 1944 it was raised to 81.66, on :.-lay 30, 1945 to 31.691,(
on March 4, 1946 to 172.1, and on May713, 1946 to'187.1. On June .30n1946 ceilings.
expired.

Table 6.-Wheat production by classes, United States, average 1935-4) and annual-
19 5-146 1/

.. -Winter : S-ring W: 1 ite : e
Year ,: Rer.: :V-inter and : Total
.Hard Red *:Soft Red Hard Red rn .
......1,000 bu. .1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 'bu. 1,000 bu.: 1,000 bu.

Average :
1935-J4 ..359,476 200,727 -158,979 32,832 91,678 .943,692
1945 .. :, .519,421 234,025 .232,852 35;731 101,114 1,i.23,143
1946 572,746 209,686 *211,130 35;646 131,i58 1, 60,366

1/ Data for- earlier years in The Wheat Situation as follows: 1919-28, Fpbruary
1939r page -2-2; 1929-35, Jn~huary-February. 1943, pag6 10; 1936--4, November-Dec-
ember 1945, page 14... .

Footnotes for table 3, page 21.-
SAnnual' data for 1930-41 in The W'heat Situation0.r June-July 1946., pagell.,
/ Residual. J/ Less than 50,000 bushels. 4/ Preliminary.





AUGUST 1946


Table 7.-lheat: Weighted average cash price, specified markets and dates, 1.945
and 1946
:All classes: No. 2 : 1o. 1 :To. 2 Hard : 17o. 2 : Soft
Month :and grades :Hard winter:Dk.iT. Spring:Amber Durum: Red Winter : White
and :six markets:Kahsas City:Minneaoolis:Minneapolis: St. Louis : Portland/
date 1945:,1946 1945.1946. 1945 :1946 :1945 946 945 1946 :1945 1l946
1945 1.996 1.94 1 95 ::946
:0ents Cents:Gts gents:Gents Cents:Gents 0enut6:Qents Cants:Cents Cents
monthh : : -. :C n t :: : : :
JOneP :169.9 189.8:168.2 186.1:1-72.3 190.0:175.0 :176.0 194.0 :151.9 g11.6
.July :161.9 202.6:158.3 197.8:172.4 222.4:175.0'230.0:167.3 211-.1 :148.o 183.2
Yre&k : : : : : :
ended- : : :
July .6 :16.9 207.1:1601.4 205.1:172.4 217,0: --- 166.6 212.4 :147.6 182.2
13 :161'.4 207.1:15g.2 202.4:172.7 223.3:175,0 --- :166.6 215.2 :147.2 183.2
20 :160.5 204.8:156.6 199.4:172.4 235.1: --- 230.0:166.3 211.3 :148.2 183.1
27 :161.9 197.0:158.8 193.2:171.9 223.8:175,0 --- 16.3 203.4 :149.2 183.9
Aug. 3 :162.9 196.3:160.4 193.7:172.9 208.1:17,0 --- :168.7 201.1 :14g.3 1g4.5
16 :l63.3 196.7:160.1 193.1:172.4 205,4:175.0 -- :169.1 200.8 :148.2 182.6
17 :162.g 200.5:159.3 194.5:170.6 207.4: -- 220.7:165.9 203.4 :146.4 181.5
24 :164.7 19g.6:159.1 193.5:172.7 204.g:175.0 223.0:165.7 .207.0 :147.5 182.1

1 ifeekly average of daily cash quotations. : *

Table 8.t- Wheat:. Prices per bushel in three exporting countri-es, Friday
nearest midmonth, Jan.-August 1946, Weekly July-August 1946.
SHard WhLeat : Eard Wheat: -Soft Uheat
:United States : Canada :Uhited States:United States:Australia-
Date :No. 1 H.D.-T, Sp1o.3 Canada iqo.1 D.HE.. :.
(Friday). :13 pct.protein:ZTo. Spg. at : Galveston :. Yio.1 21
at Duluth :Fort William: 1 : Portland : .

Friday, midmonth: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Jan. 11 _174.0 137.7 190.0 -165.0 153.9
Feb. 15 174.0 139.1 190.0 165.0 16o.1
Mar. 15 : 177.0 14o.5 191.5 166.6 --
Apr. 12 : .177.0 141.8 191.5 166.6 :--
May 17 192.0. 141.8 203.4 11g.6 :162:8
June 14 .: 190.0. 141.g 2Q3.6 181.6 --
July 12 .- 230.0 156.T- *205.Q" : 13l ---
Aug. 16 : 207.5 156.0 2o6o5 181.6 -
Weekly
July 5 : 218.0 .141.g 203.6 83.1 ---
19 : -235.0 156.0 209.0 183.1 -
26 : 214.0 156.0 205.0 83.1 -
Aug. 2 : 208.0 156.o0 206.0 186.0 -
.9 : 206.0 156.0 206.0 igl.6 ---
.23 :. 207.0 156.0 '206.0 182.5 -
j .o.b., spot or to arrive.
F/ Fort William quotation is in store. No. 1 Hard Dark Forthern Spring, 13 percent
protein, .(duluth) plus 1/2 cent ..(for in-store basis) is -assumed to be fairly comr-
parable with ITo. 3 Canadian NTorthern Spring wheat (Fort Tilliam, in stor.e). -


- 24 -




ws-96


(Based on

Item


Grade
1 ..........
2 ........



Sample ....

Special grades
Tough .....
Light Smutt;
Smatty ....
Light Garli
Garlicky ..


inspected receipts at representative markets, July 1 to July 31)
: Hard Red. Winter heat : Soft-Redd Winter Wheat
classs : Average:. 5 : Average: 1945 1946
:___ : 1935-44:. i 5 : 3__5- : 4 4:
: Percent Percent Percent: Percent percent Percern,

: Hd. 46 22 42
:Hard 53 77 5
: Yellow Hd. 1 1 0

....: 33 45 52 : 19 9 25
..... 34 37 36 : 40 55 56
.... 20 12 : 24 30 14
..... 9 3 1 : 3 1
..... 3 1 1 3 0 0
..... 1 2 2: 6 3 4

s -:
.....: 2 14 5 : 15 16 20
S...: 0 0 2: 2 2 6
.... 0 0 2: 1 1 4
cky .3 4
..... : 22 i4 15


Table 10.- D-rum "'heat: Supply and distribution, United States, 1941-46

Item: Year beginning July
SItem : :19-41 19j2 1943 44 945 :19-
:M million Million Million Million Million Million
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels
SUPPLY :


"Stocks, July 1
Farm
Interior mills
Commercial
Mcerchlant mills
Total stocks,
Production
Imports
Total supply
DI STT gPJ T,(:
Mill gr"_n'ings
Seed


and elevators


July 1


FPeed, cereal mfg. & other uses
Exports as grain
Total disappearance
Stocks, June 30
Total distribution


7.2
9.6
53
3 45
25.5
42.7



19 ,0
3.0
10. 5

335
1L1
b.2


14o3
110,4
5.5
4.4

455
0.5
'0.7

23,9
3.0
25,6

5275
2L0 2
80.7


131l
6.2
2o.5
764-

36 5
;A 9


20.4
3.0
29,,4

52.8
14. 8


7o3
1.1
2, 2
4.2


4 3


26,.0
2,8
14,5


5g6
51 --9


5.8
1.4
003
1.1

35 7
1.6


22.2
3o7
14o9

4M51
5.1
45.9


2.3
0.3
1.6
0.9'
5.1
35.6

31.6


25 -

Table 9.- Percenta-e of hard- reel, and soft red winter wheat in
specified grades, average 1935-44 and annual 1945-46





AUGUST 1946 26 -

Table 11.- Destinations of United States exports of wheat and flour in
terns of wheat, year ended June 30, 1946


Destinations

Europe:
MUNIRA
U.S. Military civilian feeding :
France and French North Africa :
Belgium
Netherlands,'
Norway '
U. K. and 3Eitish S. Overseas
USSR
Other Europe
Total Europe

Far East
UVTNRAI
U. S. Military civilian feeding
Philippines
India
Total Far East

Latin American R~epublics .
Other exports

Total for all countries


Exports and :shipments
Million bushels

73.2
67.1
90.9
20-5
11.0
0.4
11.S
S. 1.3
40.3
306.4 .





.. 5.8
-5.6
37.
3" 4.
g.2

387.2


Table 12.- Estirated July 1. wheat 'stocks in four major exporting
countries, average 1935-39 and annual 1940-46


Year United States : Canadian
.___ g in_ ._ grain 2/
S: Million Million
bushels bushels


SArgentina Australia
" :
Million Million
bushels. bushels


Total
. Million
.ushels


Av. 1935-39
194o,
1941
1942
1943
j1-944..
194 5-
194 6


155
2g0
3S5
632
622
317.
281 '
101


122
322
517
449
630
40oo
318
90


121
102
201
238
* 290
S 175
115


/ Includes United Stntes wheat in Canada. Includes small quantities of ncw wheat
prior to 1937.
2 Incudies Canadian ~heat in the United States.
. Preliminary,


60
.135
75
142
200
159
50
67


45-9
S39
1r178
1,461
1,740
l.,166
.824
373





?'S-96 27 -

Table 13.- h&e4 production in &r Eur c: Pr.'reotivc 19- 0-rop, -ith corriprisons'.

: Avor'e ; : Prospective
Country 1,.. F-1939 : 1946
1,000 : ','o) 1,000- 1,000
I bushols s : .'...1 : buchels

Eire ...........: 7,0F9 20, 38 21,94 : 1, 621
Spain .......... :1/ 157,986 10C, :o' (7.,000) : 13i1,174
Fortugl .......: 1-06 : 13,525 : 1,91 21,14
Italy ..........: 27 ,519 : 26,454 : (169,019) 222,6C5
Austria ......: 1,117 : 11,,61 : 8,929 : ,l81
Czechos cv kia : 59,090 : 000 ,O : ( 50,000)
Prince .........: 28,510 : 2 .26,285 : (14,000) 22 5,000
Belgium ........: 163,10 :, 18, -.69 : (14,500) : (?1,5)
L l-. s c l.nd ....: 15,"09 : 11,8S 3 : 7,953 : 10,900
Norway ........ 2,,1 .(2,00) : 2,S3 : ---
Hungary ....: 91,210 : 81,85 ,. 22,20 : 51,9SO
Runwni ........: !0,.1 : --- : --- : 69,555
Greece ......... 3 ?0,: :_ --: : (16, COO) : 25,S3


~1


p


t.i'.nated tcb 1 :1,115,567


: 926,000 : 647,000


Fro-, official and.unofficial sources -here available: 4thcr-ise esi.'.ti'':
(sl'or. i pFar~.thess) ase,'r, s n for,'i n ."rvice reports t.,rnd othicr infor.: t.ion.
I/' roducti,:; for 19 5 oniv.
2 0 Hot. ;t : rt ,ly o':or-l. l o i"'. Jr'.c,.din- es'&i- +.;:_ sircc Pu h.:ri,:i is exclu'd d.
SBc aed o: pru:,:;.r,: lon 'ri, "r :1h ,-, 19 5 .': 19:6. Pr li'-inary for 1C .'f.
4/ Estir..-1.., tc .i Jcr I""1 !:. 5, 1316 incl0c'o :ll.'_v;= "cEs for missing d:.-a
f Pr :on -rics ,l '.7 f o


Yeanr.:
begin- :
nin : July
July :
:Cents
1940" : 417.9
1941 : 54.9
1942- 60.6
1941 :101.2
1944 :115.0
1945 :152,8


T.ble 14-Ryc, Fo. 2: "Vci4htcd _--*r-:c pri' per bushel of
reported o.B. s l-1,- .iuPcip*lis, .y :...:...s, 19_S'-4C 1/



Aug. S.c.pt.Cct.'. "'c, ,c. Doc, Jt: n AFpr. J I..Juo


Cents Cents (cnt's Cnints '"'t Cents. Cents Cents Cc_ 'nt CEcnns Cnts Csnit'

61.7 67.8 60.0 64..1 37,8 80.3 7GI.1 75. 71.2 9.5 600.O 65.:
58.8 64.6 59.1 59.5 70.3 74.7 79.2 82.9 80.9 87,2 94.1 753.
95.4 101.4 100.5 111.' 120.2 127.0- 12.5 125.5 127. 1119.4 112.1 108.
112.1 103.1 114.8 117.1 114.3 12-.8 1 13.5 127.2 1!3.' 139.2 155.3 122.3
14-11.2 151.7 164.3 18t.9 175,2 198. 212.9 c .2 269.8 284,.1 285.2 170.


s

L
T

1
2
2


1946 :209.0 0
-c..iled frc- Kir.n.~poi's D-'i1y t.:n -cord. .vr: c'Of ily pri, _yhtCd
by c'.rlot sle.s.
1/ Data for earlier yvk.r: in The "'ca itu' tior as Paoll'3's: 1915-32, Junc 1937,
page 1~, 191.7-59,.March-April 19 5, p'r:e 1,.


: 830,000







Table 15.- e: Acreage, yield, production, foreign trade, and price,
United States, 1900--46
(Data for figure 3)
: Acreage Yield Exoorts Imnorts Price
g! harvested) :r acre:Production : : :received by
: ___ : :farmers 2/
:1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels Cents per bi


Year
beginning
July


1900 : 2,127 12.9 27,413 2,346 -- 51
1901 : 2,409 12.5 30,773 2,712 --- 55
1902 : 2,444 13.9 33,862 5,445 1- 50
1903 : 2,260 12.S 28,932 784 34 54
1904 : 2,205 12.9 28,461 30 21 6S
1905 4 2,297 13.6 31,173 1,385 1 61
1906 : 2,154 13.7 29,609 770 1 -- 58
1907 2,073 13.6 2S,247 2,445 2 2J73
1908 : 2,130 13.5 28,650 1,296 1 2/74
1909 : 2,212 13.6 0, ,083 242 0 74
1910 : 2,262 12.9 29,098 40 227 73
1911- 2, -2 12.8 31,396 31 134 81
1912 : 2,724 13.9 37,911 1,855 1 68
1913 : 3,0o9 13.1 40,390 2,273 37 62
1914 : 3,144 13.4 42,120 13,027 147 83
1915 : 3,417 13.7 46,752 15,250 566 85
1916 : 3,528 12.2 43,009 13,703 4k2 11l
1917 : 5,059 11.9 6o,321 17,186 834 17
1915- : 6,694 12.R5 3,421 36,467 638 12
1919 7,16s 11.0 78,659 41,531 1,077 15
1920 : 4,c2 12.8 61,915 47,337 452 146
1921 : 4,851 12.6 61,023 29,944 700 84
1922 : 6,757 14.9 100,986 51,663 99 63
1923 : 4,936 11.3 55,961 19,902 2 59
1924 : 3,941 14. 58,445 50,242 1 95
1925 : 3,00 11.1 42,316 12,647 --- 79
1926 : 3,419 10.2 4, 60o 21,6e0 1 '3
1927 : 3,458 14.S 51,076 26,346 2 53
1928 : 3,310 115 37,910 9, 84 1 83
1929 3 3,139 11.3 35,411 2,600 1 S5
1930 : 3,646 12.4 45,383 227 SS 44
1931 : 3,159 10.4 32,777 909 1 34
1932 : 3,350 11.7 39,099 311 14 28
1933 : 2,405 8.6 20,573 21 12,019 62
1934 : 1,921 8.5 16,255 -- 12,250 72
1935 : 4,066 14.0o 56,93 9 2,266 39
1936 : 2,694 9.0 24,239 24s 3,943 S1
1937 : 3,525 12.8 '4s,362 6,578 6
1938 : 4,0o7 13.7 55,984 784 1 3
1939 : 3,S22 10.1 38,562 72 43
194o 3,194 12.5 39,9,4 245 1,392 3/41
191 3,570 12.7 45,364 23 8,758 53
1942 : 3,860 14.9 57,673 450 1,490 59
1943 2,755 11.1 30,452 5rQ 8,314 9b
1944 2,22 11.4 25,500 3,144 4,149 109
1945 4/ 1,981 13.3 26354 7,196 1,960 142
1946 /: 1,775 12.1 21,410
l1 From re-orts of Department of Commerce of the United States. Includes flour
2/ December 1 price, 1900-1907. 3/ Beginning 1940 includes unredeemed loans at
average loan value. 4/ Preliminary.


.2
-7
.8
.5
.8
.1
.9
.1

.4
.0
.7
.9
.3
.0
.0
.4
.1
.9
.4
.0
.9
.3
.2
.1
.0
5
.6
.7
.4
.1


.0
.8
.2
.6
.8
.9
.9
.9
.8
.1
.0
.0


- 28 -


AU-GUST 1946


0





TS -96


- 29 -


Tabl.e-16.-Avera.ge price por -u.41 of rye received by farmers
parity price, Unite:-'. Stats, 191-16 '_/
~(atE fr figure )
Year : : : : : : : : : .laretin
begin-: July:Auj. :Sept..Oct. -Nov.:Dec. :Jan. Feb, :Ia.r. :Apr. :,ay :Juno yearr
ning 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 .: 15 : 15 15 : 1515 : 15: 15 15 : 15 :Avr-
July : : : : .: : : : : -.< : : ae
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Ccnta Ct.nts Cents Corts Cents Cents Cents Carts
A AVerage Price 2 ____
1931 : 3.0 32.5 3T.2 33.6 41.4 36.8 36.8 36.3 37.7 36.6 33.4 28,.8 3 1
1932 : 22.0 25.3 23.6 22.3. 22..1 21.1 22.7 21,9 22.8. 6- ..- .386.9 45.5 28.1
193 : 78.2 58.8 61.4 52.7 55.': 51.9 53.6 54.2 53.1 52. 8 51.9 58.2 62.8
1934 : 61.3 73.9 79.1 75.0 71.9 74.4 73.1 8635 Z 36.5 66.0 32.0 53;7 7;:0
1935 :-35.0 35.5 36.5 42.1 -'0.4 -10. 41, 444 2.9 40.3 40.6 135. 39.8
1936 : 61.1 75.1 79.5 8.4 8.1,65 90.0 97.9 08,9 95.8 99.9 96.0 85.3 81.2
1937 81.0 70.6 68.1 63.8. 60.8 59.2 64.1 63. 58.7 52.2 49.8 46.0 68.6
1956: 41.4 3 352.0 32.9 32.1 2.' 4.'7 3.9 -2.9 3-.0 3 .4 39.1 33.8
1939 : 34.3 3-..2 4' 0 45.1 4.6 52. 56.7 55.7 55.6 57.1 52.4 4.0.3 45.9
1940 38.3 36.8 38.3 4 .5 2.3 1. 3. 1.2 -3.1 '6.5 18.1 --7.1 41.9
1941 : 46.4 49.4 57.3 51.3 54.2 57.c 65..2 36.0 14.3 30.7 59.4 52.4 53.9
1942 : 51.3 49.2 55,2 52.9 0.4 56.5 61.3 6' .1 8.9 69.5 71.9 79.7 59.8
1943 : 90.9 83.6 94.5 101.0- -D?.O 107.0 111.0 111.0 111-..0 112.0 111.0 105.0 98.1
1944 :107.0 108.0 102.0 10.30 .08.0 106.0 1.'.0 1008.0 109.0 1.11.0 112.0 121.0 109.0
1945 :122.0 12-.0 131.0 133.0. F0.0 143.0 1.C.O0 161.0 L75.0 195.0 192.0 145.0 42.0
1946 :176.0
Parity Price 4/ ____
1931 :102 100 98.6 97..9 96.5 96.5 92.9 92. 91.4 90.7 89. .88.6
1932 : 83.6 88.6 87.8 87.1 86.4 85.7 82.1 S2.1 81.4 82.1 82.1 82.8
1933 : 85.7 8&.6 91.4 91.91 1.. 99.1 1. ..7. 91..4,. 91. 92.2 92.2
13934 : 92.2 94.3 95.0 95.0 95.0 95,0 3.6 94.53 94. 94. 94.3 94.53
1935 : 93.6 92.9 92.2 92.2 91.4 91.1 90.7 90.7 90.0 90.0 90.0 89.3
1936 : 91.4 93.6 95.6 95.6 93.6 91.3 95.0 96.5 96.5 97.9 97.9 97.9
1937 : 97.2 96.5 95.0 91,. .3.6. 2.9 92,9. ..92..9 .92.2 .9.2.2 92.2 91.4
1938 : 90.7 90.0 89.3 89.3 89.3 89.3 88.6 83.6 88.6 88.6 88.6 88.6
1939 : 83.6 87.8 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.C 90., 90.0 90.7 90.,7 -90.7 90.7
1940 : 90.0 90.0 900 90,0 97.0 90,7 90.0 90.0 90.7 90.7 .01.4 93.C
1941 : 94.3 96.5 98,6 100 .102 .102 104 105 107 107 .108 108
1942 :109 109 109 110 111 112 112 114 114 115 117 117
1943 :118 118 113 119 119.5 120 121 122 122 122 122 122
1941 :122 122 122 122.. 123.. 123 124 .124 12. ..125. 125 125
1945 :125 125 125. 1286 126 127 127 128 130 150 133 135
1946 :143
1- '-ta for 1908-30 in th- -"h. t Situ-.t.ion, Sept.c-'bcr-Octobr 1945, pag' 14-15,
22/ monthly price, o b .t.. .i t production t obtp-in ft price for the.
United Staqtes: Av<.r.;< for yc.- tq.inc- ci:hting Stc ..ic &v.r.tcs for the
marketing year.
J/ Preliminary.-
4/ Computation of p-rity rric. s: Aver"y. price in .as, period (August 1909 to
July 1914) x monthly index cf pr-c p.aid b' f-.nm -,, int r. s.t. taxes,- .-xamplo
for July 1946 =. 72.0 x: 199 13. .




AUGUST 19-16


"ERE TO FID STATISTICS OF TTE ET SITATE.T NOT INCLUDED I ~TiB ISS L: (' :


TEE DOMESTIC PFE-,T SITI7 Tir 1
Supply -:nd aijs ribution
Total E -1sat, 19 b-4'1 ...........................
Total :'he t, 1909-44 .. .... .............
By cl-sse-, e.verag- 1937-11, anr=u. 19.2-45 .....
Durum, 19-'O-1f5 ..................................


Stocks
By position July 1, average 1917-11 and -anral
1942-43 ....... .... ......... .".. ........... ...o.

Acreage, yicld, producction, aQn f6rn dispoitio.
Acr'ca-e, -yield,. and product .ion, -by kinrd, 1940-45
Acreage. 'secdei b.: ro-~os,. 9~-5 ...*... *....*..
oPfoducion u 1 -v14. cr : l '',-_-. Q ., ..
Acr-eage and per-cerita-ge of r-i's- claS .e ....... .
Productiorn and 'farri -isposi-iior, *1909-45 .........

:.-p -ts and imports
Ex-ports of I.. ncliuing -flour tc ps cificd
countries 1910- 9 .... ........................
Exports -fro. iU. S.by Cdo.intrions, lb7.-8, 192 --9
I-rIports irto tihe Uniod Sttc, '2- ..........

Sale,and incor..c, an.d prices
Sales, pric r nd cc:h ircmue, n.S., 1910- ....
Percentage monthly y siles, *.v-er-: 1972-41, an,.
'urnu 1935 3 o..*.o.......... o... .. ......... -

TEE 7'DRLD 'T"LT T SITUATO -
Supply and dic-iri-utix n
:-6rld, 1922--0 ....... ........ ........... ......
Canad.1, Arg.ntina, Australia, .cr:g -- 1929-33
"and 193--56; -.naval 192--45 ...................
Production, +r -'..e, domestic us.:; 'ny countries,
193 -S8 ........................................

Stood's, July 1
1922-10 .........................................
Acreage and producti-on
7 I- .1 r. -- .7 roc Ction -orld, xcu ing
the UT.b.S.R. and China, 1923-41 ................
Acre' e, yield, an.d prcIuction, C.-rda, 1905-..15 .
Acreage, of vteo.t, 'orl6 ",nd- s "'.cifisA cn-ucntrios,
19( J'--'.o ..... ...... ...........................
Production of -whe't, world d 'n1 sp;ci'iz d
countries, 1909-40 .... .......................


12 Junc.


?.ar.


n'hr.
June




Aug.

Sept.


15 .


17 F Hov.



15 Ma r.

16 Jar..

11 Jan.


15 Mar.


19 Mar.
15 July-
17 June

10 Nov..


International traiode
Inrt,.r-tion )TTFtEc in -whoet including flour,
calondar years, 1937-40 ...... .................. 20
Intcrn.ational tra.do i: vcat flour, calendar
years, 1938-:0 ......................... ..... .... 21
Internation-l trade in -:..eat- i"-cludinc flour,
July year, av-r-rcs 1925-34, annual 1937-39 .... 16
Relative impcrtancc of vo-cat importing Countries,
195.- 8 ........................................ 8
Relative importacnce of -ic .t 'xporting ccjntri---s, ]-35 0
1/ Stelectejrr tblfe -cc-d most frocuently


*- ar.-

Har.

Fob.


1I" 6 -'9-95


1.9. IF
19 -.5


. 1.:' : 7.
. 1.515




1 ..' *
. 1 C,
. 13, -,


"3-87
-90
E-88
"3-73
"S-95



3-46
3S-83
- 3-91


1 i _6 S-94

. 1-.5 "S-92


* "
- 1911 3-53

. 91.3 --93

. 19-.5 "-86


1: 1 S"'-53


1. -s-65
1 -89

19-A 1 '-56

1 2-..5 -92


1912 -G5

1941' "3-65

19,i1 -52
1945 "IS -86
10 5 "-S-86


- 30 -


11
. 12
19
14


Jui:e
Sept.
Aug.
Jul


" -95
'?-91
- 3-90
3-09


19-.5


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

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