Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00004

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Full Text

IT I AT ION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTUF AL EC: NOM ICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT '-,F AGRICULTURE

U


UST 1949


DOMESTIC USES
MIL. BU.


400




200 ,,.



0 --
0
1930


u S DEPT OF tGR'C'-JLuBE


OF WHEAT


1940 1950
11'J 6 G'.4 j. ,n


B A F 4 .50 XX


U S DEPT OF AGRICULTURE

Wheat supplies in 1949-50 are estimated at
1,425 million bushels, 59 million below 1948-49.
Domestic appearance is expected to total
about 700 million bushels. If the total of exports
and military purchases approach 450 million


B A E A6051 X

bushels, the carryover July I, 1950 would be
about the same as the 293 million bushels on
July 1, 1949. It is expected that food use will
be about the same, feed slightly more, and seed
slightly less than in 1948-49.


THE I


WS- 113


DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. WHEAT
MIL. BU.
SYear-end carry-over
SMilitary purchases
1,500 -Exports*
Domestic use


1,000 --


500 -



1930 1935 1940 1945 1950
rEAR BFGI NING JUIl
INCluDEf. FLOURF MILLED fIOM CO- OnSH r F.l O I


1950 OUTLOOK ISSUE
FOR RELEASE SEPT. 3,P. M.






WHEAT PRODUCTION


MIL. ACRES


MIL. I



1,200



800



400



0
1


0 --
920 1930 1940 1950 1920


1930 1940 1950


DATA FOR YEAR OF HARVEST
*PER SEEDED ACRE


U. S. DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE
Production of all wheat, indicated as of August I at
1,132 million bushels, is the fourth largest of record.
Large crops in the 8 years ending with 1948 reflected very
good yields per acre. Yields in 1949 were 13.6 bushels
compared with the 1939-48 average of 15.6 bushels.
Seeded acreage for the 1949 crop at 83.2 million acres
was an all-time record. This compares with the previous


B A E 42549-XX
record of 80.8 million acres in 1937. The national acre-
age allotment for 1950, as announced originally, was 68.9
million acres, a 17 percent reduction from seedings for the
1949 crop. With moderate allowances for overplanting and
increases in individual allotments as required hv Public
Law 272, signed August 29, seeded acreage would he at
least 73 million acres below the 1949 record of 83.2 -nuilion.


80



0
BU





s -3 -


THE WHEAT SITUATION
Including Rye -


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, August 26, 1949

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT AND RYE

The 1950-51 outlook for wheat is characterized by a further moderate
decline in wheat prices, acreage allotments for the first time since 1943,
and relatively favorable export demand. Even though a 10-million acre
reduction is possible in seedings for the 1950 crop, another billion-bushel
crop is probable next year if weather conditions are normal. Exports may
total 400 million bushels compared with a record of 500 million in 1948-49
and a 35-year average of about 170 million bushels. Domestic use will
remain near 700 million bushels at prices perhaps 10 percent lower than
those of 1949-50.

The national acreage allotment of 68.9 million acres for the 1950
crop, announced on July.14, will be increased as a result of recent
Congressional action, which provides that farm allotments be not less than
the larger of one-half of the 1949 or 1948 wheat acreage and fallow which
was seeded to wheat in the preceding year, adjusted on the basis of the
national reduction in acreage. While applicable to any farm in the U. S.,
the chief effect of this, legislation will be to increase allotments in the
drier areas of the Great Plains. The total effect of this change in allot-
ment procedure will not be known until after each county has checked indivi-
dual farms .

5 If a seeded acreage of about 73 million acres is assumed for the 1950
crop (which makes moderate allowances for increased allotments and overplant-
ing), and average yields are obtained, a crop of about 1,100 million bushels
would be produced. This would allow 700 million bushels for domestic uses
and 400 million bushels for export. If exports total 400 million in 1950-51,
the carry-over July 1, 1951 would not be increased as compared with
July 1, 1950. Under these conditions, prices would be expected to average
about the support level. Under existing legislation the support level may
range from a minimum of about $1.65 to a maximum of about $1.75 per bushel,
assuming a parity indexof between 230 and 238. This compares with $1.95
for the 1949 crop.

A 1950 seeded acreage of 73 million would be about 10 million acres
less than that seeded in 1949. Substantial changes in farming practices
will be necessary in many areas to effect this reduction.

With most of our wheat produced in the Great Plains, the heavy adjust-
ments will need to come from that area. About 73 percent of the record
acreage seeded to wheat for the 1949 crop is in the 10 States from North
Dakota and Montana south through Texas and New Mexico. Another 7 percent
is in the three Pacific Northwest States, leaving only 20 percent of the
national acreage in all other areas. Included in the possible alternative
uses of wheat acreage, especially in the Great Plains States, are seeding
to grasses, sfIfting to other crops, and increasing summer fallow.




August 1949 4 -

For the past 7 years rye acreage and production have been small.
This is largely because of the *competition from other crops. While it is
not practical to attempt to equal production of former years, more rye
would be used if supplies were larger. With a reduction in wheat acreage
in 1950 some increase in rye acreage is expected.

SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT WHEAT SITUATION

United States wheat supplies are now estimated at 1,425 million
bushels. This is 59 million bushels less than the 1,484 million in 1948-49
but the fifth largest of record. The July 1 carry-over of old wheat was
293 million bushels and the crop was estimated in August at 1,132 million
bushels -- a reduction of 57 million'bushels from the 1,189 million in-
dicated in July, but still the fourth largest crop of record. Domestic
disappearance in the year beginning July 1, 1949 may total about 700 mil-
lion so that about 725 million would be available for export in 1949-50
and carry-over July 1, 1950. If total ixporta approach 450 million, the
carry-over July 1, 1950 would be about the same as the 293 million
July 1, 1949.

Exports of wheat, including products as grain, in July 1949 totaled
30.5 million bushels, which compares with 49.4 million bushels a.year
earlier. Sales by the United States under the International Wheat Agree-
ment August 1 through August 25 totaled 6.2 million bushels.

On August 26 prices at Kansas City were about 16 cents under the
loan. This represented an advance from the low point reached on July 2
when No, 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City dropped to 35 cents under the loan
rate. Last year the low point was about 18 cents under the loan. While
hard winter wheat prices are not expected to change much within the near
future, price advances are probable later in the season. Compared with
hard winter wheat, receipts of soft winter wheat are moderately heavy
and prices weaker. At Minneapolis on August 26, as the heavy market
movement of early September approached, prices were about 7 cents below
the loan.

Exports of wheat including flour in 1949-50 from the four principal
exporting countries -- United States, Canada, Australia and Argentina --
may total almost as much as in 1948-49 when they were about 950 million
bushels; during 1947-48 they were 935 million. Wheat stocks in these
four countries on July 1, 1949 totaled 638 million bushels, over 100 mil,
lion bushels above the 536 million a year earlier. While stocks this
year cannot be considered large, they are 39 percent above the 1935-39
average of 458 million bushels.

The 1949 bread grain production in the Northern Hemisphere is ex-
pected to be about 5 percent below that of 1948. The reduction is largely
the result of a smaller production of wheat, there being little net change
in rye. The indicated wheat crop is slightly above the 1935-39 average
while rye is 5 percent below. Sharply increased wheat production in the
United States is largely responsible for keeping total wheat production
in this Hemisphere above prewar levels.

in North America the current outlook is for a bread grain crop
about 10 percent less than the large 1:948 harvest but still far above
average. While the wheat crop in the United States and the ryb crop in
both the United States and Canada are below a year ago, the Canadian
wheat crop, officially estimated at 392 million bushels, is about the
same as a year earlier.






Bread grain orodu2ction in Europe, excluding Soviet Union, is about
5 percent below the 1948 total, and. i3 percent below the. 1935-39 average.
In the Soviet Union, production of both wheat and rye is expected to 1be
slightly larger than in 1948, but still *ell below prewar. Production of
wheat in Asia..is estimated to be about 12 percent smaller than last year's
harvest, principally because of smaller crops in China and Turkey. Northern
Hemisphere countries of Africa show a blight increase in wheat over last
year. Most of the gain-is In Tunisia where a good crop is reported after
the poor harvest of' 1948. ...

In the Southern Hemisphere, growing conditions in Argentina have been
favorable. Seeding is now finished and little change from the' small acreage
of the past two years is expected. In-Australia the crop is growing well
but some sections need moisture. Acreage is estimated .at 13.3, million acres,
which:compares with 13.0 last year and the 1935-39 avorahge of -13.1 million.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 1950 WHEAT CROP

BACKGROUND.- The 1949 seeded acreage totaled 83.2 million
acres, an all-time record (table 2). This compares with
77.7 million acres in 1948 and the previous record of
.80.8 million acres in 1937. Actual seedings exceeded the
goal for 1949 of 71.9 million acres by 16 percent.

An acreage allotment for 1950 resumes the procedure
initiated with the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 and
maintained until the 1943 crop, when it was suspended
.because of the war emergency.

National Acreage Allotment for 1950 Increased

The national acreage allotment of 68.9 million acres 1/ for the
1950 crop, announced on July 14, will be increased as a result of recent
Congressional action, which provides that farm allotments be not less than
the larger of one-half of the 1949 or 1948 wheat acreage and fallow which
was seeded to wheat in the preceding year, adjusted on the basis of the
national reduction in acreage. 2/ While applicable to any farm in the U.S.,
the chief effect of the legislation will be to increase allotments in the
drier areas of the Great Plains. The acreage added by this amendment will
not be known until after each county has checked individual farms. However,
it is expected that it will add over 2 million acres, bringing the national
allotment to between 71 million and 72 million bushels.

l/ Determination of the 1950 allotment of 68.9 million acres was explained
in The Wheat Situation of July 1949, page 8.
2/ Public Law 272, signed August 29, amended the Agricultural Adjustment
Act of 1938 as amended, to provide that the farm acreage allotment of wheat
for the 1950 crop for any farm shall not'be less than the larger of
(A) 50 percent of (1) the acreage on the farm seeded for the production of
wheat in 1949, and (2;) any other acreage seeded for the production of wheat
in 1948 which was fallowed in 1949 and from which no crop was harvested in
the calendar year 1949, or (B) 5Q percent of (1) the acreage on the farm
seeded.for the production of wheat in 1948, and (2) any other acreage seeded
for the prg4uction of wheat in 1947 which was fallowed in 1948 and from which
no crop was' harvested' in the calendar year 1948, adjusted in the same ratio
(continued on page 6)


WS-113


- 5 -




AUGUST 199


Acreage allotments are one method by which producers may bring
.supplies more nearly in line with demand and provide a limit to Government
expenditures for supporting the price of wheat. With an acreage-allotment
program in effect for the 1950 wheat crop, non-cooperating growers will
not be entitled to price support.

At the time of announcing acreage allotments the Secreaary of
Agriculture proclaimed that there would be no wheat marketing quotas for
the 1950-51 marketing year. ,/ With the very large decline in the 1949 crop
prospects, the total supply as projected for 1950-51 is less than the level
at which the proclamation of wheat marketing quotas is required.

1950 Crop Ma Not Increase Carry-over:
Support Level under 1948 Act May Down 20-30 Cents

If an acreage of about 73 million acres is assumed (which makes mod-
erate allowances for increased allotments and overplanting), and average
yields of 15.1 bushels _/ are obtained, a crop of about 1,110 million
bushels would.be produced. This would allow for 700 million bushels for
domestic disappearance and 400 million bushels for export. If exports total
this amount the carry-over July 1, 1951 would not be increased as compared
with July 1, 1950.

Under these conditions, prices would be expected to average close to
support levels. Under existing legislation the support level may range from
a minimum of $1.65 to a maximum of $1.77 per bushel 2/.

(footnote 2 continued from page 5)
as the national average seedings for the production of wheat during the ten
calendar years 1939-48 (adjusted as provided by the Agricultural Adjustment
Act of 1938, as amended) bears to the national acreage allotment for wheat
for the 1950 crop. This amendment also provides that in the determination
of 1950 farm wheat acreage allotments by the application of this ratio that
no acreage shall be included under (A) or (B) which the Secretary, by appro-
priate regulations, determines will become an undue erosion hazard under
continued farming. It further provides that if the allotment to any county
is insufficient to provide for such minimum farm allotments, the Secretary
shall allot any county such additional acreage as may be necessary in order
to provide for such minimum farm allotments.
3/ Had marketing quotas been proclaimed this year it would have been the
fourth time in the history of the legislation governing their use. Quotas
were proclaimed in 1941, 1942, and 1943. The required referendum resulted
in a favorable vote in 1941 and 1942. In 1943 the quotas procedure was
suspended because of the war emergency before a referendum was held.
_/ In recent years the trend has been toward higher yields per acre. This
arises, not only because of favorable growing conditions, but from the in-
creased use of more timely and improved production practices such as stubble
mulch in the Great Plains; chemical control of weeds, insects and disease;
and increased use of fertilizer; also from the development and more wide-
spread adoption of higher yielding varieties:' Average for 1938-47 was 15.1.
2/ Computations follow the procedure set up in the August 1948 issue of
The Wheat Situation in the section on "The Agricultural Act of 1948 relative
to wheat." Assumptions include: (1) An index of prices paid, interest and
taxes June 15, 1950 between 230 and 238, the mid-point of which would be
related to a parity (present formula basis) of about $2.07, (2) a transitional
parity 95 percent of the present parity formula or $1.97, 90 percent of which
(continued on page 7)


- 6 -




WS-113


Exports from U. S. in 1i50-51 Expeted
To Be Reduced but Still Large

The tentative estimateo-for the United. States. exports -in 1950-51, is
about 400 million bushels, which compares'with the i'ecord of 500 million bu-
shels in 1948-49. Much will depend upon tho size and distribution of the
world crop. It is assumed that in 1950 agricultural output in Europe and
Asia, and in other overseas exporting countries will be as large or larger
than in 1949 and that about 75 million bushels may be exported from the
U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe. In addition to crop outturn, the financial
and political role played by the United States in international affaris
will continue to be very important in determining the quantity of U. S.
exports.

Large scale exports began in late 1944. Until 1948-49, the abnormal
world import needs for wheat exceeded the relatively large supply available
for export in surplus producing countries. With good crops around the world,
supplies in 1948-49 were large enough to about take care of effective demand,
and the year thereby marks a turning point at which supplies will again allow
for the rebuilding of stocks in some areas.

Since the end of the war, exports of wheat and flour from North America
have been very large in relation to exports from Argentina and Australia.
This was made possible by record crops in the United States at a time when
production in Argentina and Australia was below average, especially in 1945
and 1946. The wheat acreage in the Argentine is still at an unusually low
level.

FARMERS' ADJUSTMENTS IN WHEAT ACREAGE

Wheat farmers faced with the need for reducing U. S. wheat production
are immediately confronted with two questions: What areas should be expected
to make the greatest adjustments? What shifts can be made to advantage on
individual farms?

Most of our wheat production is located in the Great Plains. About
73 percent of the record acreage seeded to wheat for the 1949 crop, and
60 percent of the production expected from that crop isln the 10 States from
North Dakota and Montana south through Texas and New Mexico (table 1).
Another 7 percent of the acreage and 10 percent of ths expected production is
in the three Pacific Northwest States. This leaves only 20 percent ,Qf the
national acreage and 30 percent of the total production in all other areas.

(footnote 5 continued from page 6)
is $1.77, which is the calculated maximum loan level for the 1950 crop;
(3) a minimum support level of 70 percent, which is increased by 20 percent
to 84 percent because acreage allotments are in effect; and (4) 84 percent
of the transitional parity of $1.97 or $1.65, which is the calculated minimum
loan level for the 1950 crop. The following were assumed in arriving at the
70 percent minimum support; (1) Domestic consumption 1949-50 of 700 million
bushels; (2) exports in 1950-51 of 400 million; (3) allowance for carry-over
of 15 percent of the total of (1) and (2), giving a normal supply of 1,265 mil-
lion bushels; total supply in 1950-51 of 1,400 million bushels, which is
111 percent-.of the normal supply of 1,265 million, which percentage is related
to a minimum support percentage of 70 percent.


- 7 -







Table I.- YTheat: Acres ze-ied ri'rodi'ctio*, .Un ted States and by region,
selected. aver ?-es end ers "

: U Great : 1'orth- Corn Bolt : All
Period Pins west nd Lake : South : other
: States : I/ -' 2/ : States 3/ ; / : States
S illipnion Ilillion Million l .Million Million Million
: acres acres -'. acres acres acres acres


Averages
1935-39
1941-45

Annual
1942

1946
1947
1948 5/
1949 5/


75.2
61.4


: 53.0c

: 71.5
: 77.9
: 77.7
: 83,2


4938
43.6


* 4.2


37.5 3. -3.


53.1
57.6
55.8
60.6


12.7
8.3


7.0.


5.1
5..3
5.5
5.,8


8.4
9.4
10.7
11.2


2.8
2.5


2.6'


2.1
2.5
2.4
2,4


a.2
2. 6


2.4

2.8
3.1
5.3
3.2


: Million Pil]ion Million
: bushels bushels .bushels


759
985


969


1,153
1,367
1,288
1,132


371
645


677

757
946
810
677


93
108


97

138
124
142
113


Million Million Million
bushels bushels bushels


200
148


115

172
195
241,
245


I/' N. Dak., S. Dak., Nebr., Okla., Texas, Mont., 'vwo., Colo., Kans., N. Max.
7/ Idaho, Wash., and Ore,.
5/ Ohio, Ind., Vich., Wisc., Finn., Iowa, Ill., and Mo.
4/ Va., .'. Va., N:.' C., S. C., Ga., Kv., Tenn., Al., "iss., and Ark.
SPrcliminr ry.

Most or all of our increase in wheei: acrernke since prewar has been
in the Gr- : Plains and in the NOrthwest. ?With a national increase in
seeded acreage of 10 million acres since 1935-79, the Greet Plains States
increased 10.8'million acres and the Northwest 1.1 million acres, while
all other areas decreased 1.9 million acres. Expressed in percentages,
with the increase for the U, S. of 14 percent, the Great Plains increased
22 percent, the Northwest 23 nrwrcent while all other areas decreased
10 percent.


Averages
1935-39
1941-45

Annual
1942


1946
1947
1948
1949


- 8 -


ATGIJST 1949






Major acreage adjustments will come largely in the Great Plains and
Northwest States because of the relatively small acreages and different
types of farming in other areas. ThesS other areas included the Corn belt
and Lake States, the Northeastern and Southern States, and California.
Much of the wheat is grown in these States as a nurse crop for legumes, a
cover crop, or for home use largely as feed.

Within the Great Plains, the recent increase in wheat acreage has
varied between'States and within States. The increase between 1942 and
1949 ranged from an increase of less than 50 percent in North Dakota,
Kansas and New Mexico, to an increase of more than 80 percent of Oklahoma
and Texas, and over 150 percent in Colorado.

Percentage increases within the Northern Plains States have been
fairly well distributed, but in the Southern Plains States they have been
greatest in the more humid, eastern areas and in some of the marginal
western areas where substantial acreages of sod have been broken. In one
county in Colorado, the wheat acreage has increased something like fifty
fold since 1942. In the more humid, eastern portions of the Plains, the
acreages of wheat involved are relatively small.

Included in the possible alternative uses of wheat acreage,
especially in the Great Plains States, are seeding to grasses, shifting
to other crops, and increasing summer fallow.

Grass on excess wheat land is one of the most important types of
adjustments. Both farmer experience and experimental evidence have shown
that wheat land can be seeded to grass profitably in areas which have
supplementary feeds, stock water, and which have or can develop livestock
enterprises which use grass. Because grazing is an even more extensive
type of farming than wheat production the use of grass on small farms is
limited. Grass seed as a cash crop and grass in the crop rotation, may
well be some of the answers on wheat farms which are not situated so as to
effectively utilize grass for forage.

Crops such as dorghums and barley will produce as much or more feed
per acre or per man hour as will wheat in some Of our wheat areas. Where
this is the case a shift from wheat to such crops would be relatively easy.
Cognizance should be taken, however, that row crops deplete the soils more
readily than do continuous small grains, and that feed grains also are ex-
pected to be in surplus. In the areas where they are adopted, deep rooted
legumes will increase the fertility and the tilth of the soil, and they
will facilitate a shift from wheatto livestock production.

Summer fallow represents one of the most economic and easily obtained
alternatives tq wheat in the Wheat-fallow areas. There is a sizable number
of growers wio have reduced their acreage in fallow, and a shift back to
this desirable farming practice will tend to reduce wheat acreage. However,
increasing the acreage in summer fallow in many areas will maintain or even
increase production per farm. A shift from wheat to fallow can at best be
only a temporary and partial solution to a surplus wheat situation.


WS-113


- 9 -




.-GI ST 1949


o Feeding of more wheat on wheat fTaS is an adjustment-which appears
to have some merit. While this would not serve to reduce the wheat acreage,
it would reduce the quantity wiich went to market. 'Wheat ha-s been demon-
strated to be a good feed even though it needs, to be cracked or ground for
most types of livestock, requires more care in feeding than -is required of
other grains, and it generally needs to be mixed with other grains. Pound
for ppund it is worth about 5 percent more than corn as a feed. In our
western wheat areas, it usually can provide feed at less cost than other
grains either produced or shipped in. Although the use of pastures, -such
as legumes or sudan grass, will result in better gains, no native pasture
is required in feeding wheat to hogs. Where native grass is available,
excess wheat land can be used for the production of wheat for feeding
cattle. The production of livestock with wheat produced on excess wheat
land is not likely to disrupt our livestock markets, especially if con-
samers' incomes remain at relatively high levels.. Such a shift would
provide a use for excess acres and would enable farmers at least to retard
.the depletion of soil fertility.

The present financial position of specialized wheat farmers makes
this an opportune time to accomplish some of the adjustments which are
desirable. If adjustments are delayed, they are likely to be considerably
more. difficult because operators' financial reserves will have been reduced.

THE CURRENT DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION ..

BACKGROUND.- An abnormal world demand for bread grains made
it possible to move'the excess over domestic need's from four
record wheat crops produced in 1944-47, and to minimize the
increase in the size of the carry-over on July 1, 1948
(figure on page 1, table on page 17).

In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in continental United
States averaged 982 million bushels consisting of carry-in of
old wheat, 235; production) 738, and imports for domestic
use, 9. Total disappearance averaged 721, consisting of food,
475; feed, 122; seed, 81; and exports and shipments 43.. Carry-
over stocks at the end of this period were much larger than at
the beginning.

Net exports from the United States have exceeded 300 mil-
lion bushels only in 1914-15, 1920-21, and each of the past
4 years beginning in 1945-46 (table 4). Very small United States
wheat crops in 1933-36 together with-drives toward greater self-
sufficiency in many importing countries greatly reduced exports
in the 30's and the war curtailed shipping in the early 40's.
In the 35 years' since 1909, leaving out the years of net imports,
net exports averaged 169 million bushels.










J


- 10 -






Wheat prices to growers advanced from an average
of 67 cents per bushel in 1940-41 to a record of $2.81 in
mid-Jdnuary 1948, and a record season a:.ri'.g of P2.29 for
the 1947'crop, From 1938 to late 1944 the loan program,
which reflected the general rise in prices farmers pay,. was
the most important factor in domestic wheat prices, From
1942 through 1945 wheat feeding was exceptionally heavy and
very large quantities of wheat were used for war industrial
purposes. Beginning in early 1945 exports, including ship-
ments under various foreign aid programs, became the most
important price factor.

In 1947-48, United States wheat prices reflected the
unavailability of feed grains fo r export, the additional
world deiaiand resulting from short crops .in .importing. coun-
tries, and the continued rise in the general price level.
With the harvest of the near-record crop in 1948 and favor-
able crops in importing countries, the loan program again.*
became an important price factor. The price to growers for
the 1948-49 crop averaged about 1 cent below the $2.00 loan
level.

Carry-over July 1, 1950 May Be
About Same as July 1, 1949

United States wheat sup lies are now estimated at 1,425 million
bushels, or 59 million bushels less than the 1,484 million in 1948-49
but the fifth largest of record. The July 1 caryy-over of old wheat was
293 million bushels and the crop was estimated in August at 1,132 million
bushels--a reduction of 57 million bushels from the 1,189 million crop
indicated in July, but still the fourth largest crop of record. Domestic
disappearance in the year beginning.. July 1 may total about 700 million
(Food 485, feed 130, seed 85 and shipments to territories 4) so that about
725 million would be available for export in 1949-50 and ctrry-over July 1,,
1950. If exports approach 450 million, thecarry-over July 1, 1950 would
not be much different from the 293 million on July 1, 1949.

Exports of-wheat, including products as grain, in July 1949 totaled
30.5 million bushels, which compares with 49.4 million bushels a year
earlier. .

Prices Above a Month A!g:
Expect ed to Continue Steady and Then Advance.

Wheat prices at Kansas City on August 26 were 16 cents below the
loan value, but about 6 cents above a month earlier. While hard winter
wheat prices are not expected to change much within the near future, price
advances are probable later in the season. On July 2 the price of No. 2
Hard Winter at Kansas City had dropped to P1.85, 35 cents under the loan
rate., This compared with a low point last year about 18 cents under the
1 oan. Market receipts of hard winter wheat have become rather anall and
large quantities are probably being placed under Government loan This
means tighter free wheat supplies as the season progresses. Receipts of
soft winter wheat are. moderately heavy and prices weaker as compared with
hard winter wheat. At Minneapolis on August 26, as the heavy market, move-
ment of early September approached, prices were about 7 cents below the
loan.


- 11.-


WS -113




AUGUST 1949


THE CUTRREiT WORLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND On July 1, 1943, stocks of wheat in the four
principal exporting countries were a record of. 1,737 million .
bushels, almost four times the 1935-39 average of 458 million.
By July 1945, however, they were down to 818 million bubshelc,
and by July '1946 they were further reduced to 387 million.
Greatly increased disappearance was caused by wartime depletion
of food supplies in importing countries and by poor crops in
many areas, Stocks'in these four countries on July 1, 1946
were the smallest since 1938 and wure about 16 percent less than
the 1935-39 average. On July 1, 1948 these stocks had increased
to 536 million bushels (table 8).

World Exports Expected to. Total
Almost As Much As in 1948-49

Exports of wheat including flour in 1949-50 from the four prin-
cipal exporting countries-United States, Canada, Australia and Argentina-
may total almost as much as in 1948-49 when they were about 950 million
bush,.lsj during 1947-48 they were 935 million. Of the total in 1949-50,
somewhere near 450 million may be from the United States. Countries
otner than the four mentioned, including the Soviet Union may possibly
export 50-75 million bushels, compared with about 50 million in the past
two years.

July 1 Wheat Stocks in 4 Exporting
Countries Up 19 Percent

Wheat stocks in the 4 principal exporting countries on July 1, 1949
totaled 638 million bushels, over 100 million bushels or 19 percent above
the 536 million a year earlier (table 8). While stocks this year cannot
be considered large, they are 39 percent above the 1935-39 average of
458 million bushels.

Stocks in the United States increased 97 million bushels, those in
Canada 25 million, while those in Argentina and Australia each decreased
10 million bushels, with the total decreasing 102 million.

A distinction between July 1 stocks in North America and in Argentina
and Australia should be noted. That date marks the approximate beginning
of the marketing year in North America and the stocks approximate carry-
over stocks for North America. In Southern Hemisphere countries, however,
stocks on that date include supplies for domestic use and export up to
December when the new crop year begins in those countries.

Northern Heonmi.phre 'Br- ader'in Production
.5 Percent below 1948 6/

The 1949 breadgrain production in the Northern Hemisphere is ex- :
pected to be below 1948 by about 5 percent, or 10 million short tons, A
smaller wheat crop accounts for the bulk of the decrease, with tho total
outturn in Northern Hemisphere countries now estimated to about 5 percent
less than in 1948. Total rye production shows little change from a year
earlier.

/ From the August European Crop Outlook Report published by the Office
of Foreign Agricultural Relations, U.S.D.A.


- 12 -




WS-113


-13 -'


Wheat is still slightly above the 1935-39 average level while rye
is 5 percent less. A sharp increase from prewar in the United States is
the principal factor in the maintenance of world wheat production. Rye,
grown principally in Europe and the Soviet Union, has been sharply below
average in Europe since 1939, both in area and production. Some recovery
was made in 1948, but the level is still well below the figures for
1935-39. In the Soviet Union, rye acreage is believed to have been in-
creased considerably and to be well above prewar average.

In North America the current outlook is for-a breadgrain crop
about 10 percent less than the good 1948 harvest, but far above average.
The United States wheat crop is the sixth successive billion-bushel crop
reported. The United States rye crop is one of the smallest recorded.
The Canadian wheat crop is tentatively estimated at 392 million bushels,
compared with 393 million a year age. The wheat acreage for harvest this
year is reported at 27.5 million acres up considerably from the 24.1 in
1948. Yield per acre averaged 14.2 bushels, or only 11 percent below
long-time average yields, despite earlier reports of heavy losses from
drought over wide areas. Rye acrecge in Canada this year was cut to
little more than half the 1948 area and, with sharply reduced yields,
the crop is estimated at 10 million bushels, compared with 25 million in
1948.

Breadgrain production in Europe is about 5 percent below the 1948
total, estimated at 62.5 million short tons, and 13 percent below the
1935-39 average. .Conditions varied widely in different parts of the
Continent. Small increases in Scandinavia, and in many of the smaller
producing countries of Western Europe and in parts of Central Europe
were overbelnncrd by reductions in France, Spain, Great Britain and parts
of the Balkans. Within the Balkans, too, conditions were variable, with
best conditions reported for Hungary and Yugoslavia and least favorable
in Rumania and Bulgaria. In the latter two countries drought reduced the
outturn.

Official reports indicate good yields of breadgrains for most
regions of the Soviet Union. Harvesting difficulties, however, appear
to have complicated getting in the grain, and harvest losses which are
usually high in the Soviet Union may be even heavier than.usual, WideSpread
continued rains during early July delayed the ripening and harvest of
grains in European areas of the Union. Later harvest reports indicated
difficulties from wet and loged grain, uneven ripening, low stand of the
grain, and shattering. In addition, almost simultaneous maturing of
spring and winter grains in some regions presented difficulties, and
serious lags in combine harvesting were reported from a number of regions.
Weedy fields were also mentioned as a serious problem this year. Despite
-all these handicaps, however, yields of grain are believed to be close to
the 1948 yields and production of both wheat-and rye is expected to be
slightly larger than in 1948.

Production of wheat in Asia is estimated to be about 200 million
bushels smaller than last year's harvest, principally because -of smaller
crops in China and Turkey. Reduced yields account for the decrease of
roughly 100 million -bushels in China, since acreage is reported at about
the 1948 figure. In Turkey, however, both acreage and yields are reported
substantially -emallP.r than in 1948. Serious .ro'u.ht held up fall seeding
and the area sown was reportr.n to be 10 15 percent less than the area of
recent years. Unfavorable growing weather also reduced yields sharply,
according to reports. Rye acreage was also cut in Turkey, the only country
of this area reporting rye.




AUGUST 1949


Northern Hemisphere countries of Africa show a slight increase over
last year's wheat production. Most of the gain is in Tunisia where a good
crop is reported after the poor harvest of 1948,. Changes in other coun-
tries of the area are minor. Rye is of no significance in Africa.

In the Southern Hemisphere, growing conditions have been favorable
in Argentina, wherc seeding is now completed for the crop which will be
harvested in December. Little chnage from the small acreage of the past
two years is expected. In Austra-lia the crop is growing well but some
sections need moisture. Western areas are still deficient in subsoil
moisture, The Wheat Board estimated the acreage at 13.25 million acres,
which compares with 13,0 million seeded last year and the 1935-39 average
of 13.1 million.

EXPORT OPERATIONS UNDER THE INTERNATIONAL 71HEAT AGREEMENT 7/

BACKGROUND:- The International YWheat Agreement came into
force July 1, 1949, through formal acceptance by the Governments
of Australia, Cana da, France, and the United States, as ex-
porters, and by 19 importing countries. The importing countries
are Austria, Belgium, Ceylon, Dernark, Greece, India, Ireland,
Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Netherlrnds, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal,
Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Union of South Africa, and
United Kingdom. Since that time Egypt, Norway, and Venezuela
accepted the agreement.

Under this agreement, the United States and other exporting
countries have agreed to supply 456 million bushels of wheat .
annually in exchange for a guaranteed export market, Of this
quantity, the United States will supply approximately 168 mil-
lion bushels each year for the next four crop years commencing
August 1, 1949.

The objectives of the agreement are to assure supplies
of wheat to importing countries, and markets for wheat f:r
exporting countries, at equitable and stable prices,

Export -ayments and U S. Price Equivalents

Because the maximum price provided in the agreement is below the
domestic market price of wheat, it is necessary to reimburse exporters
to the extent of the difference in order to fulfill the obligations of
the United States. These payments, which are announced daily, Pre made
on exports of wvheat and wheat flour shipped to countries participating in
the agreement, except for exports financed by funds obtained from Economic
Cooperation Administration. They are made initially from funds made
available for the purpose of encouraging the cxportations of agricultural
commodities (Section 32 funds). Payments differ by U. S. coastal areas
and by destination. T]-e destinations are the same as thosu listed below
for the price equivalents.

2/ Highlights of the agreement are contained in the March-April 1949
issue of The Wh.:-t Situation, p g- 12-15. Highlights of the Council-
first meeting, held in 'TLchington July 9, were contained in the July
issue, pages 13-14,


- 14 -





TiS-li .


The L.. port payments will apply only to exports to countries which
have. formally accepted the 7- (m,'-nt and which h ore active participants.
!Jo pr-yment wil]l be made on exports to other countries which originally
signed the agreement, until they have ratified -nd accepted the agreement .
The dato for ratification has been extended to October 31, 1949 for these
countries, ;which pres..ntly include Bolivia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Cuba,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Liberia, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Panama, and the Philippin-.s.

The agreement maximum price is the United States price equivalent
of '-1.80 per bushel for No. 1 Lanitoba Northern bulk wheat in store ob
Fort '.illiam or Port Arthur, Canada. Payments on flour are made on the
basis of tcl actual quantity of wheat used in manufacturing the flour,

On August 12 the following prices were announced as the current
equivalents of the Agreement maximum price of $1.80:
East Coast 4$1.97 f.o.b. vessel to all destinations..
Gulf Coast $1.91-1/2 f.o.b. vessel to European Atlantic Ports.
$1.93 f.o.b. vessel to Mediterranean Ports, Middle
East, South and West Africa.
$1.94-1/2 f..o.b. vessel to Asia and adjacent arcas.,
$1.97 f.ob. vessel to Latin America and to West
Indies.
West Coast $1.80 in store to all destinations.
These price equivalents are for wheat comparable in grade to No. 1
Northern Manitoba wheat. Discounts and premiums for quality factors arc
* det-rmined by negotiations between 'uyer and seller. The prices are sub-
ject to change with changes in transportation costs, particularly ocean
freight rates. In making such changes, the CCC will be guided by recom-
mendations of th; Exccutive Committee of the International Wheat Council.

Sales under the Agreement

The following sales under the a-'r cnent had becn confirmed by the
Office of t.anager up to the' close of business on Thursday,. August 25:


Country


Commercial
1,000
cwt,


Belgium
Ireland
Israel
Netherlands Colonies
Norway
Peru
Portugal and Colonies
Saudi Arabia
U. K, Colonies
Venezuela
Total


165
59
45

12
14
60
.60
415


Flour Commercial 'Jhc.t CCC ',heat
1,000 1,000 1,000
bu. bu. bu,


385
138
104

27
33
140
139
966


--- 3,449 3,449
- 747 747
-- -- 385
-- -- 138
-- 104
654 654
-- 336 363
-- -- 33
- 140
--5 5--3 139
654 4,532 6,152


No sales have as yet been consummated with the other 12 importing
countries now actively participating in the Agreement.


Total
1,000
bu,


- 15 -





- IC -


Table9 "- .hut, principal typosi Acraage, y1i9.l pr acre, and production,
19339-1l


Acr-aie
z..-ed J : rvaes 'od so. '
n .t ha+


: Yield
I but : per seeded : Production
vested : acreo
acres Bushels 1,000 bushels


1939 .*e.....Ae***
1940 ..........e,
1941 .o..**......*
1942 e...e.*.e*e*
1943 .........****
1944 ...........*,
1945 ...........,
1946 .........
1947 ......... .,
ID48 ,...........
1949 ,..........,

1939 ............
1940 ..........**
1941 ........**.*
1942 .............
1943 .............
1944 .............
1945 .............
1946 ............,
1947 .............
1948 ............
1949 ,...........o

1939 ......,......
1940 .............
1941 .............
1942 *.,,*******-
1943 ............*
1944 ............,
1945 .,,,
1945 ....#......
1946 .......,***...o
1947 ...........,
1939 ...........,
1949 ,,,,9*..f

1939 ............
1940 ............
1941 *..........
1942 .............

1944 .........o..
1945 ...........*
1946 ....,......
1947 ............
1948 ..,........,
1949 o............-

1939 e.*......e..
1940 *....'.......*
1941 ..........,
1942 .......o,.,.
1943 .....,.,,,,.
1944 ......4;...,.
1945 ,o....",...
1946 ..........ee
1947 ........ ...e.
1948 *.o......
1949 ,......,..


.: 6' 102, 5-669 10,1i3 11,8 741,210
: 61,-2. 53,273 8,547 13.2 814,646
: 6.707 55,935 6,772 15.0 941,970
5,00N- 49,773 3,227 18,3 969,381
53- 51, 55 4, 62' 15.1 843,813
: ',I 59,749 6,411 16.0 1,060,111
: 9,1 Ou C.,17r0 4,0 1 16,0 1,108, 24
71, f:.6 6.7,'j7 4,461 16.1 1,153,0 '16
S 7., ,169 .4,30- 3,780 17.5 1,36 7,136
: 7'., 7 11, jl 5,845 16.6 1, 2 ,406
: '., ..- 7 .4 .7, 915-.61 1 5
?i.-%ter Trheat
46,154 37, 6P1 8,473 12.3- 565,672
45, &.: 3,095 7, 141 13.6 592, 109
t 6,4 5 39,776 ,726' 14.6 673,7.7
0 S3 ,2.:3 Se,C; 2, 5 18.1 702, 15-
F.,3. 4, ,9 2 .. 14.0 537,476
: 46,I21 41,125 5c. 96 10.1 751,3 C)
K ..15 46, ;A83 *-.42- 16.2 817,34
: 2,19: 4.,,.&3 3,S845 16.7 870,725
5, .1 Z. 54,835 3,298 18.4 1,068,048
: 5:,r .1 2, 859 5,-. 0 17.0 990,098
.'. -,-_______ ______ 14., 894,874
S___ All sprinS vwheaat _
S 1*7,64. 1 -., .h 17 10.5/ 1756,538
2 18,2.4 17,176 1, i0I 12.1 221,837
: 16, ,62 16, 135 :,. 15.1 266,243
14.145 1I,753 9 18,9 267,222
17,469 16 "92 ."7 17.5 306,337
: 13,369 19,624. "4. 15.9 368,210
: 18,71. 18,1 71i 58-1 15,5 290,390
: 19,341 1.;? i.; 14.6 282,321
: 21156 19,:- 14..9 299,133
19,. 19,045 .n: 15.2 298,303
: .1,63333 19.7934 ., '-..10.9 236,956
:_ Spri.ng .' e,- their than durum
: 13,521) 1,/-35 1,49 7 10.6 143,05"
1-4, 13. 14,149 764.. 12.7 189, 543
: 14,064 C 1., 3 4. 1 16.2 227,535
: 11,i 11,6r C.; 18,8 225,986
1., .3 14,-14 r' 17.8 272,832
17,270 16, 5' 7 .- 16.1 278, 5!-4
: s6, 619 I, 1 1.? 15.4 257,551
C: 1i, IC, 272 .. 14.6 246,485
17,061 1,.;. '- 14.9 254,810
1: 6,343 I.,,.5 -5 15.5 253,566
S 190 .. 1 10,8 194, 678

: .. 3,126 i9C', ..: 1 10.4 32,486
: 3,371 3,029 342 9.6 32,294
: 2,593 2,524 74 15.6 40,658
-: 2,155 2,109 46- 19.1 41,236
: ...2,136 2,078 58 15.7 33,505
2,0? 2,057 42. 14.1 29,666
S'. 2,026 2,. 04 22. 16.2 32,840
: 3,493 2,453 40 14.4 35,836
a 2,975 ",948 27 14.9 44,328
a 3,245 3,17 58 13.8 44,742
3,646 3,52il 118 11.6 42,278


17Drata for earlier years as follows: 1919-9 in Tie tlheat Situations
S..' .njeat Situation, MarchA.pril 1943, pagesi 10 'rod 11.


Au,-ust 1942, page 11-13; 1929-38 in


'erar
.-fi ar.es t


S : '1.' r lar acres


.. [ '. "< ;





17 -

Table 3 .- Wheat: Supply and distribution, United States, 1939-49


SUPPLY
Old-croo carrv-over July 1


C.C.C.


Total


:

New crop :
!


Imports
2/:


:Interior : : a
: mill, :Terminal:Merchanta


market :


mill : wheat in
: transit
I /


: Farm :elevator,:
2 : and :
:warehouseQO*


1 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
i bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels
3
1939 t 88,016 36,842 64,103 61,054 --- 250,015 741,210 263 991,488
1940 a 79,572 35,312 84,,187 80,650 -- 279,721 814,646 3,523 1,097,890
1941 t 86,675 73,789 142,671 81,598 --- 384,733 941,970 3,664 1,330,367
1942 : 162,722 142,366 224,441 96,837 4,409 630,775 969,381 1,057 1,601,213
1943 1 189,574 103,804 162,151 104,378 58,990 618,897 843,813 13o,365 1,599,070
1944 : 103,622 30,332 82,912 67,308 32,381 316,555 1,060,111 42,347 1,419,013
1945 : 87,703 42,129 67,185 58,463 23,700 279,180 1,108,224 1,998 1,389,402
1946 : 41,606 8,376 29,917 12,838 7,351 100,088 1,153,046 57 1,253,191
1947 : 40,477 10,116 8,129 24,591 500 83,813 1,367,186 130 1,451,129
1948 2/ 94,511 30,645 34,065 34,240 2,530 195,991 1,288,406 1,517 1,485.914
1949 /: 65,598 65,119 128,158 30,600 3,797 293,272 1,131,830 -- 1,425,102

DISTRIBUTION 4/
Year t Continential United States disappearance :]Ailitary: Exoorts : i Total
begin- :Processed: 3 In- : : : pur- : : Fi Total : Sh isap-
ning :for food s Seed :dustrial: Feed : Total :chases : Wheat Flour Oth er Total mnts spearance
July : 5/ : : 6/ .a 7/ s : 8/ : 9/ products3 2/ 10/ i i/
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

1939 : 475,352 72,946 89 115,041 663,428 -- 23,636 21,232 44,868 3,471 711,767
1940 a 478506 74,351 101 122,746 675,704 -- 10,810 22,809 --- 33,619 3,-.- 713,157
1941 a 471,084 62,490 1,614 116,348 651,536 16,133 12,632 14,884 343 27,859 4,064 699,592
1942 : 502,418 65,487 54,342 298,407 920,654 25,244 6,553 22,828 1,475 30,856 5,562 982,316
1943 : 491,600 77,351 107,527 497,846 1,174,324 62,759 11,943 28,319 2,077 42,339 3,093 1,282,515
1944 3 477,668 80,373 82,295 296,369 936,705 150,146 19,010 27,585 2,182 48,777 4,205 1,139,833
1945 1 467,054 82,011 20,971 304,333 874,369 90,884 226,137 86,793 6,726 319,656 4,405 1,289,314
1946 2 477,341 86,498 44 181,713 745,596 92,452 154,013 1),68 3,492 327,185 4,145 1,169,378
1947 a 486,348 90,746 608 186,004 763,706 146,436 207,360 126,749 6,666 340,775 4,221 :,.,,12 :
1948 3/ 483,000 91,337 81 116,924 691,342 179,600 226,100 90,500 900 12/317,500 4,200 1,192,642

Foreign trade figures from reports of the Department of Commerce and Department of Agriculture. Military procurement
figures from the National Military Establishments.

1/ Includes CCC stocks stored in steel and wood bins 1942-45.
2/ Imports inc'-.de full-duty wheat, wheat imported for feed, and dutiable flour in terms of wheat. They exclude wheat
imported for mialing in bond and export as flour; also flour free for export, which for 1939-40 was 214,000 bushels and
in 1940-41 was 170,000 bushels.
' Supply data preliminary, distribution data estimated.
f/ Includes flour and other products in terms of wheat.
5' Food use by civilians and military services eating out of civilian supplies.is computed as follows Total grind lers
exports and shipments of flour and other wheat products, less military procurement, plus estimated breakfast food pro-
duced outside the flour-million industry, plus dutiable imports of flour.
/ Quantity of wheat ground into granular flour for alcohol production.
2/ 33lanciri- item; roughly auproximates total used as feed, including that used in commercial feeds as well as that fed
on farms.
g/ Includes procurement for both civilian relief feeding and for military food use; military takings for civilian feed-
in, in occupied areas measured at time of procurement and not at time of shipment overseas. Total procurement more re-
li.able than exports reported under Army Civilian Supply Program.
2/ Export- are of wheat and of flour made wholly of U. S. wheat. 1I 1 r.; as here used, in addition to commercial ex-
ports, include U.S.D.A. flour procurement as distinct from U.S.D.A. deliveries for export. They exclude exports under
the ArL Civilian Supply Program.
10/ Shiprents are to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands; partly estimated. For the war years, U.S.D.A.
shiptmnts for stockpiling in the territories have been added to reported Census totals.
_1/ Total disappearance plus year-end carry-over account for total supply.
J/ Total of 179.6 million military purchases, less about 6 million for military services food plus 317.5 million total
exports (which includes U.S.D.A. flour purchases instead of deliveries for export) equals 491 million bushels. This
is less than the actual exports because U.S.D.A. flour inventory at the end of the year was about 10 million bushels
less than at the beginning..


VIS-113


Year
begin-

July


Total
supply







Table 4.- Wheat and wheat flour: United States imports and exports, 1939-47

IMPORTS I_/
: For domestic use* : Wheat for :
o:r i e: milling :
Year beginning July- : pull-duty : Wheat : : Total wheat : in bond : Total
: wheat : for : Flour / : and : and :
: feed 2/ : : flour : export* :
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

1939 ..................... : 56 86 335 477 9,953 10,430
1940 ..................... : 165 3,237 291 3,693 7,331 11,024
1941 .....................: 1,699 1,785 179 3,663 11,912 15,575
1942 .....................: 806 150 100 1,056 7,577 8,633
1943 .....................: 1/ 136,013 189 158 136,360 10,952 147,312
1944 .....................: S/ 26,235 15,919 193 42,347 9,213 51,560
1945 .....................: 1,136 766 96 1,998 11,591 13,589
1946 .....................: 21 29 7 57 1,968 2,025
1947 .....................: 7 117 6 130 19 149
1948 ... .................: 1,317 10 190 1,517 3,113 4,630



Non-military exports : Army Civilian Supply Program: Total :
: U.S. Other 2 Total
Year beginning July-: Wheat : Flour : : Wheat : Flour : : wheat flour* : wheat
as : wholly : Total as : wholly : Total : and / : and
: grain :from U.S.: rin :from U.S.: : flour : : flour
S_: wheat : : : wheat : : :
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

1939 .................. 23,636 21,232* 44,868 0 0 0 44,868 9,407 54,275
1940 ..................: 10,810* 22,812* 33,622 0 0 0 33,622 6,935 40,557
1941 ..................: 12,632* 6/14,898 27,530 0 0 0 27,530 9,130 36,660
1942 ..................: 6,555* 19,938* 26,493 0 0 0 26,493 6,900 33,393
1943 ..................: 11,942* 28,337* 40,279 0 0 0 40,279 10,835 51,114
1944 ................... 19,010* 28,197* 47,207 54,358 40,233 94,591 141,798 9,398 151,196
1945 ..................: 226,135* 79,727* 305,862 46,878 35,489 82,367 388,229 12,834 401,063
1946 ..................: 7/142,656 8/164,986 307,642 47,167 31,883 79,050 386,692 6,650 393,342
1947 .................. 9/207,360 0q/133,098 340,458 97,328 41,461 138,789 479,247 1,066 480,313
1948 ..................: 500,471 2,745 503,216

*Asterisk indicates imports and exports from reports of the Department of Commerce, Figures for the Army Civilian
Supply Program are from the National Military Establishments.

j/ Includes flour expressed in wheat equivalent.
Classified as "unfit for human consumption" or imported for special feeding programs.
Includes some flour imported in bond for reexport, which for 1939-40 was 214,000 bushels and in 1940-41 was
170,000 bushels.
4/ Includes wheat and wheat products used for livestock and poultry feed, imported duty-free by the Comodity Credit
Corporation.
/ Usually all from imported wheat, although in some years small quantities of United States wheat were added.
-14,076,000* plus 822,000 unreported exports to British Services.
131,298,000* plus 11,358,000 unreported January-June 1947 exports to Germany financed by the United Kingdom.
154,391,000* plus 10,595,000 unreported January-June 1947 exports to Germany financed by the United Kingdom.
2/ 304,688,000* minus the included Army Civilian Supply Program of 97,328,000.
S174,559,000* minu the included Army Civilian Supply Program of 41,461,000.


Bureau of Agricultural Economics.


- 18 -


AUGUST 1949






Table 5.- Wheat: Weighted average cash price, specified markets
and dates 1948-49

: : No. 2 : : : : No. 1
Month :All classes: Dark Hard.: No. 1 No. 2 No. 2 : Soft
n &d .and grades : and Hard : Dark Hard Red : Wheat
dat : six : Winter : N. Spring .Amber Durum. Winter : Portland
: markets :Kansas City:Minneapolis 8Minneapolis: St. Louis : /

1948:1949 1948:1949 19481949 1948:1949 1948.1949 194819 1948.1949
Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.


.Month
May
June
July
Week
ended :
July 2
9 :
16 :
23
30
Aug. o
13
20


2.60
2.56
2.31


2.44
2.34
2.33
2.30
2.25
2.18
2.21
2.24


2.25
2.16
2.10


2.04
2.07
2.14
2.08
2.11
2.13
2.15
2.20


2.40
2.29
2.19


2.24
2.22
2.21
2.19
2.16
2.12
2.16
2.18


2.22
1.95
2.00


1.91
1.99
2.05
2.02
2.05
2.06
2.05,
2.04


2.62
2.60
2.43


2.53
2.46
2.44
2.41
2.37
2.29
2.33
2.33


2.33
2.37
2.38


2.41.
2.46
2.45
2.37
2.30
2.21
2.25
2.32


2.98
2.84
2.49


2.62
2.55
2.50
2.44
2.42
2.36
2.35
2.37


2.25
2.32
2.37.


2.29
2.35
2.38
2.36
2.41
2.27
2.23
2.27


2.44
2.32
2.25


2.28:
2.27:
2.23:
2.22
2.22
2.08
2.13.
2.19


2.34
1.83
1.87


1.81
1.87
1.92
1.90
1.87
1.84
1.90
1.84


2.36
2.30
2.19


2.27
2.21
2.18
2.17
2.17
2.18
2.18
2.18


2.22
2.18
2.11


2.05
2.12
2.11
2.10
2.11
2.08
2.09
2.09


V Average of daily cash quotations.


Table 6.- Wheat: Average closing prices of Sept, wheat futures,
specified markets and dates, 1948-49

: Chicago : Kansas City : Minneapolis
Period : : : : :


Dollars

[pnth
June : 2.31
July 2.30
Week
ended


July 2
9
16
23
30
Aug. 6
13
20


2.31
2.31
2.30
2.29
2.28
2.23
2.23
2.21


. -~ 19 ; 194 1949 *** 19y 19y49
P~ollare Pollare~ P dollars' Dollars" Dollarsa


1.95
2.03


1.98
2.03
2.02
2.03
2.05
2.04
2.03
2.00


2.22
2.21


2.23
2.24
2.21
2.21
2.19
2.16
2.17
2.16


1.88
2.00


1.92
1.99
1.99
2.00
2.04
2.04
2.03
2.01


2.35
2.27


2.29
2.29
2.27
2.27
2.23
2.18
2.20
2.18


1.93 '
2.08


1.97
2.08
2.07
2.09
2.12
2.11
2.12
2.12


WS-113


- 19 -




"rEGUsT 1949


Table 7.- Wheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries,
Friday' nearest mid-month, Jan.-Aug., Weekly July-August 1949


Date
(Friday)




Friday mid-month
January- 14
February 11 :
March 11
April 14
May 13
June 17
July 15
Aug. 12


Weekly
July 8
July 22
July 29
Aug. 5
Aug. 19


HARD WHEAT :HARD WHEAT : SOFT WHEAT
United States: Canada :United States:United
No. 1 Dark : No. 2 No. 1 :States
Northern :Manitoba :Dark Winter :No. 1 :
Spring '. at :Galveston :Portland: Australia
13 percent : Fort : : : 1/
protein at :William : /


Duluth 1/ : 2/ _
Dollars Dollars Dollars


2.30
2.24
2.33
2.37
2.35
2.32
2.41
2.22


2.43
2.32
2.26
2.18
2.26


2.32 '
2.18
2.16
2.18
2.13
1.97
2.00
2.04


*1.98
.2.00
-2.08
2.06
2.03


2.44
2.35
2.42
2.43
2.42
2.03
2.20



2.21
2.27
2.21
2.24
2.23


Dollars Dollars


2.225
2.16
2.235
2.22
2.25
2.25
2.10
2.07


2.13
,2.10-
.2.115
2,04
2.11


2.66
2.35
2.35
2.23
2,23
2.23
2.23


i/ F. 0. B. spot to arrive. 2/ Fort William quotation is in store. 3/ Sales
to non-contract countries'.


Table 8.- Estimated July 1 wheat stocks in four
countries, 1940-49


United States : Canadian :
Argentina
grain 1/ : grain 2/ Argentina
Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu.


280
385
631
619
319
279
100
84
196
293


322
517
449
630
398
314
104
124-
105'
130-


102
201
238
288
290
175
115
125
130
120


major exporting


Australia
Mil,bu.


135
75
142
200
159
50
68
56
105
95


Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations. Prepared on the basis of official
statistical reports of U. S. Foreign Service Offices, or other information,
IJ Includes. United States wheat in.Canada. Includes small quantities of new
wheat prior to 1937.
2/ Includes Canadian wheat in'the United States.
3J Preliminary.


Year


1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949


:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
3/:


: Total
Mil.bu.


839
1,178
1,460
1,737
1,166
818
387
389
536
638


- 20 -




- 21 -


THE RYE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

BACKGROUND.- Reflecting an active foreign
demand during and for a time after World War I, rye
acreage for harvest expar.:ed and for the 10 years
(1915-24) averaged over 5 iia.jlion acres. Production
reached a peak of over 100 million bushels in 1922.
Exports of rye averaged nearly 34 million bushels a
year during the 10 years ending in 1928. After that
exports dropped sharply and in only one year of the
30's did they total over 1 million bushels. In each
of the drought years of 1933 and 1934 imports totaled
12 million bushels.

Some increase in Rye Acreage in 1950 Likely

For the past 7 years rye acreage and production have been small
(table 10), This is largely because of competition from other crops.
While it is not practical to attempt to equal the level of production of
former years, more rye would be used if supplies were larger. With a re-
duction in wheat acreage in 1950 some increase in rye acreage is expected.

Rye Imports Exceed Exports in 1948=42
Domestic Disappearance One of Smallest
in U. S. History

Domestic supplies of rye in 1948-49 totaled 29.7 million bushels.
Imports of 6.8 million bushels exceeded exports of 5.4 million, making
net imports of 1.4 million bushels. These with carry-over 3j3 million
bushels and crop of 26.4 million made a net total supply 31.1 million
bushels. Imports were the largest in 5 years. Except for 1937-38 and
1945-46, exports in 1948-49 were the largest in 20 years.
Domestic disappearance in 1948-49 totaled 22.8 million bushels which
is one of the smallest in our history. Except for the past two years, it
was the smallest since at least 1909. The various items of disappearance,
in million bushels, are approximately as follows- Food, 5.6; feed, 6.0;
seed, 4.5; and alcohol and spirits, 6.7.

With One Exception 1949-50 Rye Supplies
Smallest in 50 Years

Domestic supplies of rye for 1949-50 are estimated at 27.1 million
bushels, which compares with 29.7 million available for 1948-49. With the
exception of 1946-47, when supplies totaled 21.3 million bushels, this is
the smallest supply in 50 years. The 10-year (1938-47) average domestic
supplies of rye were 54*4 million bushels.
Carry-over stocks of rye July 1, 1949 amounted to 8.3 million bushels
or 5 million bushels larger than the 3 previous years. However, this is
10 million bushels under the 10-year July 1 average. Farm stocks on
July 1 of 3.3 million bushels were larger than on that date in any of the
previous 4 years. While nearly double those of a year ago they were much
smaller than on any July 1 in the 1936-44 period. Terminal stocks of rye
were over 5 times as large as a year ago and totaled 3 million bushels.
This compares with the record of 23 million bushels in store July 1.






RYE PRODUCTION


MIL. BU.


75



50



25-
-



0 -
-'


1 920 .


1940


M' L. A.


6



0. -
BUSHE


16K


0


YEAR BEGINNING JULY
*PER HARVESTED ACRE


~1


U. S. DEPT. OF AGRICULTULRtE
A lye crop estimated, at 18.8 .million bushels was pro-
duced on 1.6 million acres in 1949. Both acreage and
production have been declining for a number of years, and
in 1949 were the smallest in 75 years (except for produc-


B A E 46025-XX
tion in 1934). Rye yields in 1949 were 11.9 bushels per
harvested acre, slightly below the 1939-48 average of
12.0 bushels.


1920 1940


I I | II II I I





WS-113


- 23 -


The increase in carry-over stocks was not enough to make up for the
sharp drop in 1949 production which is now estimated at 18.8 million
bushels. With the exception of the 1934 crop this is the smallest in
nearly 75 years. It is 29 percent less than the 26.4 million bushels har-
vested last year and only a little more than half the 10-year average of
35.1 million bushels. The sharp reduction in production is due largely to
reduced acreage for harvest as yields per acre are only moderatley below
last year. Acreage for harvest in 1949 was estimated at 1,586,000 acres
compared with 2,097,000 acres harvested in 1948 and the 10-year average of
2,874,000 acres. The indicated yield was 11.9 bushels per acre compared
with 12.6 in 1948 and the 10-year (1938-47) average of 12.1 bushels.

Each of the items of domestic disappearance in 1949-50 is expected to
be similar in quantity to those of a year earlier. Exports, estimated at
possibly 4 million bushels, however, may exceed imports. The carry-over of
8.3 million bushels on July 1, 1949 may be reduced to about half by the end
of the marketing year.

Rye Prices in 1948-49 Sharply Lower
Than Year Earlier

With the general improvement in the world breadgrain situation and
generally abundant supplies available in this country, wheat and rye prices
in 1948-49 were sharply lower than in 1947-48. No. 2 weighted average rye
price at Minneapolis in 1948-49 averaged $1.58 per bushel, a decline of
$1.07 from the 1947-48 average. They averaged $1.45 per bushel in July,
$1.35 in June, $1.78 in July 1948 and $2.54 in July 1947. Prices received
by farmers for the country as a whole averaged $1.20 in July, a drop of
52 cents from a year earlier and $1.16 per bushel under the July 1947
average. The support price for No. 2 rye at Minneapolis is $1.46 and the
average to growers $1.27.
Prices strengthened about mid-July this year, reflecting the re-
duction in the indication for the U.S. crop and the reduced prospects in
Canada. Price declines in August were associated with the approach of the
peak in 1949 market movement.
Table 9.- Rye: Estimated July rye stock in three exporting countries, 1944-49

Year United States : Canadian : Argenti Toal
Year : grain 1/ : : Argentina _
: Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

1944 : 31 6 15 52
1945 : 12 3 8 23
1946 2 1 8 11
1947 2 1 15 18
1948 / : 3 1 10 14
1949 /: 8 10 16 34
Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations. Prepared on the basis of official
statistical reports of U. S. Foreign Service Offices, or other information.
Stocks in Australia are negligible.
1/ Includes United States rye in Canada.
2/ Includes Canadian rye in the United States.
/ Preliminary.












Table 10.- Rye: Acreage, yiell, productidn,c foreign trade, and price, United States, 1901 9

ear : Price per :: : : Price per
e Acreage*,. Yield Produc- Exoort. Import 'bushel re- :be '.i Acreage -Yield Produc- E Exports I ports bushel re-
bennin arestedper acre ceived by : inny harvested er acre: tion :. I/ :eived by
Farmers 2/ l -fa-mere 2
,- { '


1,000 1,000 1,000
Bushele bushels bushels. bushels


12.8
13.9
12.8
*12.9
13.6
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.6
12.9
12.8
13.9,
13.1
13.4
13.7
12.2
11.9
12.5
11.0
12.8
12.6
14.9
11.3
14.8
11.1


30,773
33,862
28,932
28,461
31,173-
29,609
28,247
28,650
30,083
29,098
31,396
37,911
40.390-
42,120.
46,752
43,089
60,321
83,421
78,659
61,915
61,023
100, -76
55,5~61
58,445'
42,316-


2,712
5,445.
; 7841
30!
1,388.
7701
2,445
1,296
242
-40
31
1.855
S2,273
15,027
15,250
13,703
17,186
36,467
41,531
47.337
29,944
51,663
19.902
50,242
12,647


1
34
21
1
1
2
1
30
227
134
1
37
147
566
: 428
834
638
1,077
452
700
99
2
1


Cents ::

55.7::
50.8::
54.5::
68.8::
61.1::
58.9::
73.1::
74.5::
71.8 :.
72.5::
80.6::
63.3::'
59.4:9
81.2::
83.6::
112.5::
173.0::
148.7::
144.9::
146.4;::
93.4::
62.7::
58.0::
94.5:
77.5::


1,,000
acres

1926- 3,419
1927 : 3,458
1928 : 3,310
1929 3,138
1930 .3,646
1931 3.159
1932 3.350
1933 : 2,o05
1934 1,921
1935 : 4,066
1936 2,694,
1937- : 3,825
1938 : 4,0s87
1939 : 3,822
1940 : 3,204
1941' : 3,573
1942 : 3,792
.1943 : 2,652:
1944 : 2,132
1945 1,856
1946 1,607:
197 : 2,010
1948 .: 2,097
1949 l/: 1,5s6


1,000 1,000
Bushels bushels, bushels


10.2
14.8
11.5
11.3
12.4
10.4
11.7
8.6
8.5
14.0
9.0
12.8
13.7
10.1
12.4
12.3
14.0
10.8
10.6
12.9
11.7
121
12.9
11.9


34,860
51,076
37,910
35,411
45,383
32,777
39,099'
20,573'
16,285
56,938
24,239
48,862
55,984
38,562
39,725
43, g878
52,929
2?,.6g0
22,525.
23,952
-18,87:9
'25.975
2b,388
18,831


21,698
26.346
9,844
2,600
227
909
311
1 21

9
248
6,57g
784
732-
245
) 23'
S45
594
3.144
7.196-
574'
2,642
S5,431.


From rep6dts -ofDepartment -f-Commerce-. Includes flour. .
SDecember 1 nrice, 1900-1908. Beginning 1940 includes unredeemed loans at'average loan valge.
.'Pr limilnary.'


4... rl1


*1 ~~. *


1901
1902
1903
1904
1905

1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
191o

1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1.920
1-21
1922
1923
1924
1925


1,000
acres

2,409.
2,444
2,260.
2,2051
2,97.
2,154.
2,0731
2,130
2,212
2,262
2,452
. 2,724

3,144
3-.417.

5.,059
6,. P
7,16
14,925
4,851
6,75T

3,941
3,800


: :

. :



4
:

:
:e


1,000
bushels

.1
2
1


14
12,019
12,250.
2,266
3,943


1,392
8,758
1,490
8,314
4,149
1,996
I,641.
41
.6,794.


Cents

82.5
82.4
81.6'
84.4
L3.3
33.9
26.9
62.3
.72.0
38.3
80.8
67.2
32.2
42.6
39.9
52.0
58.3..
97.7 .
S109.0
-136.0
193
227
141


r "-


'. *.


\


:: +. ,.


s ;-;!





Table 11.- Bye: Supply and distribution, .United States, 1934-49


Year : Supply
beginning : Stocks : Produc-: Imports Total
Juy : 1/ : tion : :
: Million Million Million Milli
bushels bushels bushels bushe:

1934 : 14.9 16.3 11.2 42.4
1935 : 10.8 56.9 2.3 70.0
1936 19.7 24.2 3.9 47.8
1937 5.2 48.9 5/ 54.1
1938 8.5 56.0 5/ 64.5
1939 21.9 38.6 5/ 60.5
1940 : 19.6 39.7 1.4 60.7
1941 18.7 43.9 8.8 71.4
1942 : 29.1 52.9 1.5 83.5
1943 47.1 28.7 8.3 84.1
1944 31.0 22.5 4.1 57.6
1945 12.2 24.0 2.0 38.2
1946 : 2.4 18.9 1.6 22.9
1947 : 2.3 26.0 5/ 28.3
1948 3.3 26.4 6.8 36.5
1949 6/ 8.3 18.8 --- 27.1


: ___ i Distribution ; :Total
Food/ : Feed / : Seed Alcohol : Total Exp disap-
: : : :spirits : : A :pearance
on Million Million Million Million Million Million Million
Ls bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


8.0
6.9
7.0
5.9
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.8
8.3
8.7
7.8
6.7
5c5
5.7
5.6


4.8
21.9
13.8
18.0
19.8
20.2
19.9
19.4
27.2
33.5
18.8
9.1
5.4
5.0
6.0


8.6
8.7
10.0
9.1
9.7
7.4
8.1
8.3
6.8
5.8
5.4
4.5
4.9
5.0
4.5


10.2
12.8
11.6
6.0
5.5
5.6
6.7
6.8
2.1
4.5
10.3
8.3
4.2
6.6
6.7


31.6
50.3
42.4
39.0
41.8
40.2
41.8
42.3
44.4
52.5
42.3
28,6
20.0
22.3
22.8


5/
5/
0.2
6.6
0.8
0.7
0.2
1/
0.5
0.6
3.1
7.2
0.6
2.7
5.4


31.6
50.3
42.6
45.6
42.6
40.9
42.0
42.3
44.9
53.1
45.4
35,8
20.6
25.0
28.2


1/ 1934-42, farm and commercial stocks only. Beginning in 1943, the figures also include interior mill and
elevator stocks.
2/ Estimates based on trade information related to the Census of 1939.
Residual item.
y Includes flour.
/ Less than 50,000 bushels.
Preliminary.






U. 3. Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, Dj. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
BAE-WS-113-9/49-3900
Permit No. 1001


Penalty for private use to avoid
payment of postage $300
UNItvERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08862 6568


UNTVERSITY OF FLORIDA
LIBRARY
DOCUMENTS DEPT.
5-16-49
FNS-18 GAINESVILLE. FLA.


26 -


Table 12.- Bye: Average price per bushel received by farmers, parity price, and price of
No. 2 at Minneapolis, by months, 1939-h9 1/
year : July:August :September:October November:Docember :January :February: Marc : April :ay June : Crop
beginning: 15 :15 : 15 : 15 : 1i : : :1 15 15 :15 15 ser.
July : : : ... : : avera
:Centa Cents Cents Cents Cent Cents Cnt Centa Cents Cents Cents C 'nt :Cents,
Averams price to farmre 2/
1939 : 34.3 34.2 44.0 45.1 4.6 52.3 56.7 55.7 55.6 57.1 52.4 -0.3 142.6
1940 : 38.3 36.8 38.3 40.5 42.8 41.3 43.6 41.2 43.1 46.5 48.1 47.1 39.9"
1941 : 46.4 49.4 57.3 51.3 54.2 57.8 65.2 66.0 64.3 60.7 g 59.4 52.4 52.0-
1942 : 51.3 49.2 55.2 52.9 50.14 56.3 61.3 614.1 68.9 69.5 71.9 79.7 58.3'
1943 : 90.9 88.6 94.5 101.0 102.O 1 0.0 111. .0 11 11. 11.0 111.0 105.0 9 97.7
1944 :107 108 102 108 108 106 109 108 109 111 112 121 .109
1945 :122 124 131 138 150 113 150 164 175 195 192 14a5 136
1946 :176 162 191 199 207 218 218 233 281 247 2145 240 193
1947 :236 211 248 249 249 245 247 194 214 217 212 191 227
1948 :172 146 139 143 151 147 144 123 118 18 8 19 113 4/141
1949 :120. .. .
: Parity price to farmers
1939 : 88.6 87.8 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0
1940 : 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.7 90.7 91.4 92.9
1941 : 94.3 96.5 97.9 100 101 102 103 10o4 107 107 108 108
1942 :108 108 109 109 110 112 112 113 114 115 116 117
1943 :117 117 117 -108 119 120 120 121 121 121 121 12
1944 :122 122 122 122 122 122 123 123 124 124 124 124
1945 :124 124 125 125 125 126 127 128 129 130 132 135
1946 :142 145 143 .148 152 153 155 159 163 165 164 166
1947 :166 168 171 172 174 176 181 179 179 179 180 181
1948 :181 181 180 179 179 179 179 176 177 177 176 176
1949 :176
: Price of No. 2 at Miuepolis o / ls
1939 : 43.1 41.7 52.7 52.1 51.0 66.9 70.3 66.5 6.5 69.5 58.8 44.9 55.9
1940 : 43.9 41.2 43.6 47.8 50.2 50.0 52.6 50.2 52.4 56.5 58.1 56.6 50.8
1941 : 54.9 61.7 67.8 60.0 64.1 67.8 80.3 78.1 75.5 71.8 69.3 60.3 65.1
1942 : 60.6 58.8 64.6 59.1 59.3 70.3 71.7 79.2 82.9 80.9 87.2 94.1 73.4
1943 :101.2 95.4 101.4 108.5 111.0 120.2 127.0 122.' 123.5 127.1 119.4 112.1 108.1
1944 :113.0 112.1 103.1 114.8 113.1 114.3 22.8 123.5 127.- 133.9 139.2 155.3 122.2
1945 :152.8 144.2 151.3 164.3 183.9 175.2 198.4 212.9 235.9 269.8 284.2 --- 171.8
1946 :209.0 195.2. 223.5 239.2 267.6 279.3 285.7 310.8 353.9 310.8 319.2 302.9 255.2
1947 :254.1 246.6 281.7 285.3 282.1 276.9 276.3 241.0 256.2 253.0 241.2 224.7 264.7
1948 :178.3 159.8 150.3 164.5 173.1 167.6 163.2 136.4 .135.2 136.1 136.2 134.6 157.5
1949 :145.4
I/ Data in previous Wheat Situations as folloves: Average price to farmers 1930-38, August 1918, page 18; 1906-29,
September-October 1945, page 14. Part price to farmers 1922-397 September-October 1945, page 15. Price of No. 2
at Minneapolis 1933-38, March-April 1945, page MI; 1915-32, June 1937, page 16.
2/ Monthly and annual prices by States weighted by sales to obtain United States averages. Includes an allowance for
unredeemed loans at average loan values.
3/ Monthly average of daily prices weighted by oarlot sales. Compiled from Minneapolis Daily Market ;Becord.
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