Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00003

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Succeeded by:
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-&VJrIj-4`-


.9


THE


FOR RELEASE
MAY 19, P.M.



SITUATION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


MARCH-APRIL 1948


In this Issue:
Synopsis of the Proposed
International Wheat Agreement


ALL WHEAT AND ALL SPRING WHEAT: ACREAGE.YIELD.
AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES. 1919-48
ACRES I I
IMILLiS SEEDED ACREAGE A., L heat"

'5

50





BUSHELS ~
SI FIELD PER
2 SEEDED ACRE


6 A wheat *-
0 '

BUSHELS --i ----
,MILLi'O'S PRODUCTION

900



All wheat Spring wheat
300o ----------- ---------- -------------.


1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934
INCLUDESS WIITAIR WHEAT SefDfi FAEVIOULS ALL


U B.DEPARTMCr. O0 O RIC.ULTUE


193' 1940 1943 1946
LATA FOR i4d AAi f.ELMfh4it


1949


N**. A..9 BUREAU O0 AGRICULTrURA* |COfOC


A total of 78.44 million acres of all wheat is reported seeded or to be seeded for
1948. This includes the prospective spring wheat acreage and last December's estimate
of winter wheat seeded acreage. This total would be only fractionally above the 77.95
million acres seeded in 1947.
On March I, growers reported that they planned to seed 19.79 million acres of all
spring wheat, This is only slightly below the 19.88 million acres seeded in 1947 and 6
percent abovE the 18.61 million-acre average in 1937-46.
Very large yields in the last 4 years were responsible for the record crops pro-
duced. With average growing conditions, present prospects are for the production of the
third largest crop in our history.


WS-I05


." 1- .... __ ... ......... ....... ..........




W I ..I KIT


'lAi.-lPFR. 19.3


Table 1.- Wheat: Suppl-' and distribution, United States, 192-_47 1/


Surnly :


Crop Imorts: Total
o m supply

Million Million Million
bughele bushels bushels


Total
disap-
pear-
tnce


Million
oushels


Erports:
and :
ship- :
menfa g


Distribution


Total :


Million Million
bushels bushels


Domestic disappearas
Irocessed:


for
food
Million
bushels


Seed

Million
bushels


nce


Indus- Feed
trial 2
Million' Million
bushels bushel


July-Sept....
Oct.-Dec.....
Jan.-Mar.....
Apr.-June....
JUIlY-JUNIE...:



Tual-S'pt....
OcT.-Dec.....
Jan.- "ar.....
Apr.-June ....
J.ULY JUi...



July-Sept....
Oct.-Dec.....:
Jan.-Mar.....
Apr.-June....
JULY-JnJE.. .



July-Sept....
Oct.-Dec.....:
Jan.-Mar.....
Apr.-June....
JULY-jJUiE...:



July-Sept....:
Oct.-Dec.....:
Jan.-Mar..... :
Apr.-June....:
JULY-JUNE...:



July-Sept....
Oct.-Dec.....
Jan.-Mar .....


63o.S
1,372.14
1,152.24
896.0
630.8




1,111.5
?17. A

,.1?.9



316.6
1,079.2

558.5
316.6



279.2

682.0
332.1
279.2



100.1
9L9.3
642.3
308.6
100.1



83.7
1,122.2
796.6


969.u



969.1



8 3.8 19

41*
14
8543.8 13E


i .,'6o. i


1 ,o6o.I




1,108.2







1.153.0



1,153.0



1,36-.9


m.1 1,6oo.3
/ 1,372.4
3/ 1,152.4
0.9 896.9
1.0 1.601.2



?.1I 1,1481.8
9.1 1,1143.6
1.1 858.7
6.7 591.0
6.0 1,598.7



i.9 1,4o2.6
L.I 1,090.6
L.5 s2a.8
5.2 561.7
?.0 1,218.7



.3 1,3 88.7
L.5 1,020.5
1.1 682.1
o.1 332.2
.o0 1,389.71


31 1,253.1
919.3

3/ 1,253.1
309. 6
1 29- 1l


1,U 84.6
1,122.2
796.6


227.9
220.0
256.41
278.0
982.3



367.3
326.0
3124.1
2714.
1.282.1



323.4
262.3
271.3
252.5
1.139.5



368.7
338.5
350.0
212.1
1,289.3



303.5
307.0
333.7
22. .9
1,169. 4


326. 4
325.6
319.0


7.6
5.1
7.7
14.1
314.-5



9.14
19.2
19.7
17.8
66.1



15.5
33.6
33.5
69.9
152.8



94.7
107.1
105.3
86.8
393.9



79.3
52.9
120.8
115.0
398. 0


220.3
211.9
248.7
263.9
9147.8



357.9
306.8
294.7
256.b
1,21f.0



307.6
228.7
237.8
212.6
986.7



27. .0
231.41
21b.7
1'5.3
295.



224.5
221.1
212.9
109.9
771.4


10ho.h 186.0
117.7 207.9
113.1 205.9


MarketInt
yearE

.,'artere


Stocks


: Million
: bushels


21. .3
20.5
1.14
19.3
65.5



29.6
25.0
1.5
21. 2
77.3



31.7
26.7
1.5
20.5




32.1
27.0

21.0
82.0


3.-L
7.2
16.0
27.7
514.3



27.0
23.1,
26.3
30.58
107.5



31.2
22.8
15.6
12.7
82.3



16.4
3.0
1.6
3/
21.0


130.14
143.3
1149.2
114.1l
537.0



131..4
137.-1
1149.2
122.1
5U3.l



136.3
132.1
134.5
133.8
537.0



125.24
177.4,
13-.9

988.5



130.0
148.2
128.0
5/ 8s.0
1491.2



5/132.7
136.2
111.5


62.2
'3.9
82.1
102.8
291.0



166.9
121.0
117.7
82.5
488.1



108.4
67.1
85.9
15.6
287.0



100.1
61.0
106.8
33.0
303.9



60.3
47.1
83.3
0
190.7


I] Annual data 4r30-LI in The Wheat Situation, Sept.-Dec. 1947. page 12.
? ReEl.iual.
SI Less then 0.,000 bushels.
V Prel Iminary.
5/ 7.2 million bushels estLasted as in process from 1917 crop wheat included in figure for July-Sept. 1947.


29.0 0
35.9 0.6
1.6 o


ance menta




WS-105


T HE WHEAT S IT UAT I 0


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, May 10, 1948

SUIRARY

Winter wheat production is now forecast at 845 million bushels, only
15 million loss than on April 1. Although no official estimate of spring
wheat production will be available until next month, average yields on the
prospective acreage would bring the total wheat crop up to 1,117 million
bushels. 'A crop of this size is exceeded only by the 1,365 million bushels
produced in 1947 and the 1,153 million bushels in 1946. The winter wheat
crop this year, however, is unusually late, and consequently would be
unusually vulnerable to hot, dry weather.

A crop of about 1,117 million bushels, and a domestic use next year
of about 775 million bushels would provide about 340 million bushels either
for export in 1948-49 or for addition to carry-over July 1, 1949. Exports
including those for the European Recovery Program are expected to be at
least 300 million bushels.

Europe's 1948 harvest of bred grains will ho much better than 1947.
Assuming normal weather until harvest, the 1948 crop may possibly exceed
1946 production, but will still be considerably belcvow average prewar pro-
duction. On the whole, crops are in good condition all over Europe. Winter
losses were relatively light. Conditions have generally favored spring
seeding. Indications are that grain swings increased in the fall of 1947
in France, Italy, Czechoslovakia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Poland.
Declines are reported for Greece, Belgium, and Finland*

While crop prospects in many importing countries show marked improve-
ment, import requirements are expected to continue large. Sizeable imports
are needed to allow more nearly adequate rations and also to restore stocks
to reasonable working levels.

vlNoisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces of Canada are reported
as excellent. Some concern, however, is felt regarding the late spring in
the west where seeding has been delayed.

On the basis of the present outlook domestic wheat prices are not
likely to fall much below the loan level following harvest and are expected
to average above that level for the marketing year as a whole. Prices are
now about 15 cents above the probable new loan rate. If parity next June
is the same as on April 15, the loan on the new crop at 90 percent of parity
would be about $2.22 for No. 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City. This takes into
consideration adjustments for increased freight and handling charges.

The 1947-48 export' program for wheat and flour was increased to
482 million bushels on April 26. Together with an estimated 95 million
bushels fod other grains, this makes a total grain export program of
577 million bushels, or about 5 million bushels above last year's record
grain export total.


- 3 -






Total wheat stocks on April 1 were 478 million bushels. It is esti- _
mated that In January-March 120. million bushels of wheat were used for food. 1I
1 million for seed, and 113 million for export--leaving a residual of about :
85 million bushels as the quantity fed to livestock and poultry. This com-
pereg with an average of about 75 million bushels fed in the same quarter in
the past 10 years.

Of the 478 million bushels on hpnd April 1, about 105 million bushels
are expected to be used for food before July 1, over 20 millica for seed,
and about 115 million for export. Feed use is difficult to estimate but
may total as much as 60 million bushels. On the basis of these figures the
carry-over July 1, 1948 would total about 175 million bushels.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT

BACKGROTIND:-The acreage seeded to wheat for the
1948 crop, estimated at 78.4 million acres, is only
slightly different from the 77.9 million acres seeded
for the 1947 crop. These acreages are about 11 percent
above the average of the previous 3 years, when the
acreage was almost the same as the 69.0 million acres
in the prewar, 1932-41, period. Very large yields per
seeded acre in the last 4 years were responsible for the
record crops produced.

An abnormal world demand for bread grains has made
it possible to move the excess over domestic needs fro*
four successive record wheat crops in the United States.
The carry-over was cut down to a very low level.

On July 1, 1943, stocks in the four principal
exporting countries were a recrod of 1,740 million
bushels. By July 1, 1945, however, they were down to
824 million bushels. In 1946 they were 386 million
and in 1947 were 379 million. This great reduction in
stocks was caused by unusual demands brought on by the
war and poor crops in Socuthern Hemisphere countries,,
Europe and elsewhere. Stocks on July 1, 1947 were the
smallest since 1938, and about 20 percent less. than the
1935-39 average of 458-million bushels.

Third Largest Wheat Crop in Prospect

Winter wheat production is now forecast at 845 million bushels, only
15 million less than on April 1. No official estimate of spring wheat pro-.
duction will be available until next month. Production of all spring wheat
would be 272 million bushels if the intended acreage is seeded' and yields are
equal to the 1937-46 average. A production of 1,117 million bushels of all
wheat is indicated by combining such a spring wheat production with the esti-
mate for the winter crop. A crop of this size is exceeded only by the
1,365 million bushels produced in 1947 and the 1,153 million bushels in-1946.
The winter wheat crop this year, however, is unusually late, and coneetuently
would be unusually, vulnerable to hot, dry weather. J

A crop of about 1,117 million bushels, and a domestic use of about .
775 million bushels would provide about 340 million bushels either for export :.
in 1948-49 or for addition to carry-over July 1, 1949. Exports including
hui1sr the European Recovery Program are expected to be at least 300:,




fl 105 5 .

Total Wheat Acreage Up Only Slightly;
SLittle Change ir Sprr.i. Wheat Acreage

A total of 78.44 million acres of all wheat Is reported seeded or to be
S.seeded for 1949. This includes the prospective spring wheat acreage and last
[December's estimate of winter-wheat seeded acreage, and would be only slightly
above the 77.95 million acres seeded in 1947.

On March 1, growers reported that they planned to seed 19.79 million acres
oflall spring wheat. This is only slightly below' the 19.88 million acres seeded
in 1947 and 6 percent above the 16.61 million-acre average in 1937-46. The pro-
spective seedings of durum, most of which is ir North Dakota, is 3.09 million acres,
Nearly 5 percent above last year and 14 percent aLove the 1937-46 average. Acreage
-of other spring wheat is about 1-1/2 percent below last year. (Prospective durum
and other sprinC wheat acreages compared with the acreage of recent years are shown
by areas in table 5.)
Si \
; Prospects in Europe are that Crop
fBa EN7eed 1946 froductioniis
Moisture Favorable in Caneda
-
Europe's 1948 harvest of bread grains (wheat and rye), assuming normal
weather until harvest, will exceed that of the very unfavorable 1947 harvest- nd
may even exceed the 1946. production. However, it will still be considerably below
F the average production of prewar. The 1935-39 average annual production of bread-
grains in Europe, including the U.S.S.R. was 117 million long tons; in 1946 pro-
duction vas 90 million tons, and in 1917 only 86 million tons.

Indications are that grain swings increased in Frsnce, Italy, Czechoslovakia.
the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, and Poland, but some declines are reported for
Greece, Belgium, and Finland. In France, the acreage in cereels on Larch 1, 1948
Sas more than 50 percent above the acreage that remained a year earlier when acreage
for harvest was cut by severe winterkill; however, the 1948 acreage is sti]l about
one-fifth below prewar.

On the whole, crops are in good condition all over Europe, with moisture
generally good. Grain crops were not affected by the severe frost that occurred in
February. Conditions hrve generally favored spring seeding. If favorable weather
continues, better than average yields are expected in 1948, Reports indicate that
prospects are satisfactory in Algeria and I'orocco, but another poor crop is expected
" in Tunisia.

Vihil, crop prospects in many importing countries show marked improvement
D compared with the very unfavorable outturn in 1947, import requirements are expected
to continue large. Bread rations are generally very low, and .it will require
.considerable grain to bring up the rations and to restore stocks to reasonable
working levels.

Iloisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces of Canada are reported as
.Azoellent. Some concern, however, is felt regarding the late spring in the west
khere seeding has been delayed.





A"-. A .
J :.. iJ:
11' ",-?t," *": :'. .. -" ,






Prices Not Expected to ".
Decline Much Below Loan Level; ..- .
Average above that Level

In spite of the largest wheat crop in our history, growers' wheat price.
in 1947-48 have been the highest on record. The average is estimated at $2.39
which compares with $2.16 in 1919-20, the year of next highest prices. Even
after the sharp drop in February, prices were above any prices between the
fall of 1920 and early 1947 I/.

On the..basis of the present outlook for production and exports, prices
are not likely to fall much below the loan level following harvest, and are
expected to average above that level for the marketing year as a whole.
Before postwar export demand raised prices above the support level, prices
usually fell below the loan level Immediately following harvest, but rose
above it as the season advanced. Price supporting loans on the 1948 wheat
crop are provided at 90 percent of the mid-June parity. If parity next June
is the same as the $2.20 2/ on April 15, the loan rate on the new crop at
90 percent would be about $1.98. This compares with the average mid-April '.
price received by growers of $2.29.

THE CURRENT WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND:-In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in
Continental United States average. 982 million bushels
consisting of carry-over old wheat, 235; production,
738;. and imports for domestic use, 9. Total disap-
pearance averaged 721, consisting of food, 475; feed,
122; seed, 81; and exports and shipments, 43.

Wheat prices to growers advanced from an
average of 68 cents per bushel in 1940-41 to a record
high of $2.81 in mid-January 1948. Until 1943-44,
the loan program was the most important factor in
domestic wheat prices. Beginning in that year, however,
heavy export of wheat resulting from war and postwar
conditions has been the chief price factor. However,
domestic use also has been above average. The 1947-48
prices reflect the reduction in supplies of food grains,
the additional demand resulting from the lack of corn
and other grains for export, and the rise in the gen-
eral price level.

Wheat Prices Decline Following Rains

Cash wheat prices are now only slightly above the low on February 13 of '
$2.30 for No. 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City. Prices through the first half of"-'
April were 10 to 15 cents above the February low but with rains prices dropped
again. If the index of prices paid by farmers including Interest and taxes,
whici was 249 on April 15, is the same on June .15 (the period for determining .
wheat parity for the loan.) the rate on the new crop at 90 percent of parity
would be about $2.22 for No. 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City. This takes into
consideration adjustment for increased freight and handling charges.

I/ Prices received by growers, monthly, 1909-1948, are shown in The Whea .
Situation of January-February 1948, page 11. i
2/Parity is determined by multiplying the base price of 88.4 cents per. busaeC
(aver e of 60 months from August 1 09 to July 1914) byth Ideo o r
paid, interest and taxes (1910-14=100), which In AidAd pl ..1 9 0a






Export quotas for wh ot and flour (in -rhea.t equivalent) now issued, for
thu 12 months ended June 1948 (including unshippod quantities from Juno- 1947
nllCocr-tions 1, total 479.7 million buish31s. This is h-''rn brol-en down 1.ly
countrir- in table 8. The WPA portion of total, 374 million bushels, nas
alrca.y been purchased. Allocations of about 7 million bwlshols to conmiercial
firms for o::port in Jin.- still need lo be purchased, ar roll as any infillcd
parts of previous locationsn. Some additional v.he.it rust b) procured to
provide adequate operating stocks and -,Iso some will hav.:e hbe purchased
for J'uly shipment, although part of this will be fror th-e revw crop.

Export Program Increased
to 482 Million Bushels

The 19'47-48 export program of vheast, including flour in trrmns of vheat,
was increased to 482 million bushels on April 26. by the President's Cabinet
Committee or: World Food :rop-.rnms.

It is nov' est:.matcd tht about 95 miil.lon bu-hols of other grrains and
their products, will be. crxonrted dur:'.np th.. 1947-48 yonr (tableS ).. This
compares vriLh tl-.' original 70 rillionr bush.l program announced erly in the
season. Adding the firure foi- those trainss t hoho current coal for wheat
brakes a total grain -xpnrt rrocrrm of 577 million bushels, or about 5 mil-
lion bushels above Inst ye.r' r.,corr, food grain *:-;;c'rt total.

The decision to ircrcase vwhoeat export goals ias bn.zed on United States
grain stocks, the needs of foreign claimants, and the adequacy of facilities
for hPndlinr and shipping the incren.sed volume. The Cabinet Committee also
gave careful consideration to th.? need to maintain safe cirry-ovcrs of wheat
in this country.

July 1 Carry-over of
About 175 million Bushels

Total wheat stock's on April 1 we-re 478 million bushels compared -.'ith
209 million bushels v,.r .earlier, Thl. April 1 stocks chis y.vn;r wver
319 million bushels below the January 1 stocks of 797 million bushels. Of
this total disapnucrance, it is estimated that 120 riDllio. bush-els w.ere used
for food,' 1 million for s;:ed, and 113 million for exports of v.hcot including
flour -- leaving a residual of 85 million bushels t.'hich is assumed to b. the
quantity fed during, the J--nLuary-l_1rch period. Thic 85 million bushels compares
with a ten-year av%-crag of close to 75 million bushels for the sjomer quarter,
including a low of 46 million in 1940 ard a hi-h of 11II r 1943.

Of the 478 million bushels or. hand on April 1, about 105 million
bushels arc expected to be used for food, about 23 million for seed, and about
115 for export. Feed use may be as much es CO million bushols. Disap-
pearance of these qup.ntities v.ozild leave a carry-ov,?r July 1, 1948 of about
-175 million bushels, The carry-over on July 1, 1947 vics 84 million bushels
and the ten-year prewar avernige 235 million.









: *:'*. "


WBS-105


- 7 -






WHEAT: PRICE OF NO. 2 HARD WINTER AT KANSAS CITY. 1921-47'
CENTS
PER
b LI': H E L -H *

250 5I-


200 -



150



100



50


0 --
1921


1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
WEIGHT. AVERAGE PRICE OF fREPORTrE CASH SALES
DATA FOR 1947 ARE PMRLIMINART


1950


U s. DEPAETUEkT OF SMICULTUEE NEG 46705 U11AU OF AlicuLTUmAL ECOnOMICs
The maximum export price under the Agreement of $1.88, basis Kansas City (freight
and exchange as of February), is below current levels, but is above prices between No-
vember 1920 and Hay 1946. The minimum price would serve as a price floor for exports.
The Agreement does not deal with domestic prices within any of the exporting countries.
WHEAT, INCLUDING FLOUR: NET EXPORTS FROM FOUR EXPORTING
COUNTRIES AND FROM THE UNITED STATES. 1921-46
BUSHELS i
I MILLION | United States.


1921 1925


1930 1935 1940 1945
1EAR BEGINNING JULY


1950


Ui Ot PAP uEIMENI 0 AGA-,. jrulE NEG 46704 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURaL ECONOMICS
Historically the volume of wheat exports from principal exporting countries has
varied widely. The Agreement is designed to help stabilize this trade. Under the
Agreement, the United States is allocated exports of 185 million bushels, besides quan-
tities shipped to occupation areas and other sales outside the Agreement. The 185 mil-
lion bushels alone would exceed exports in any year from 1928-29 to 1944-45, as well as
the 1921-47 average exports of 141 million bushels.


I




WS-105


SYITOPSIS OF TME IUTERiTATIO.in WHEAT AGREEIFITT
With application to the United States situation

General Statement

Delegates of 3E countries, which account for the bulk of the normal world
trade in wheat comr.pleted formulation of an International Wheat AMreeme.nt in
Washincton on I'arch 6.

If approved b;, governments, the Agreement will become, effective for five
years be:-innin-7 Auc-ust 1, !9.48. It provides for an annual trade of r.OC million
bushels of wheat within the price ranges agreed to h,by. representatives of the
three ex-ortinE and the 33 importing countries concerned. The Agreement does not
apply to world wheat trade in excess of the 5CO million or b:. nonparticipating,
countries.

The International Wheat Council is 5-n :ut-rovrth of r- Whent Advi F .. r:.,
Committee formed in 1T4.. Its rurnoso is international consultation uron mea-
surrs to help stabilize the world's wheat ecoom;,'. In comr-nentinr on the Azree-
mpnt on Marcn J2 thp Spcretary, of A7ricu'tur0 t'said, "Fer the United States, a
major wheat e:-porter, the A.reement has 2rea* potential "i-nific--ice in a lon_
ranqe national asricul. ural u..olicy eimed at the ba-ic ob.:cti'.'? of c.:r'-anizr-d,
sustained, and realistic abundance. ia.rkets wh:ch the A-reemer.t ',ould h-elp to
assure would absorb oar present hi.h-le.vel production of over a billion bushels
wheat annuall:, and thus minimize any, nerd to consider whe-At product ion restric-
tions. "

The following is based in Dart on a synopsis of the main r ':i: ions of
the proposed AFreement recently, issued by the Office of Fr.rci c, .*-ricu1 ur.-
Relations. }/

Objectives

"To assure supplies of wheat to importin. countries and :' assure markets
to exporting countries ;.t equitable and stabr-.r rrices."

Entry Into Force

If approved by, the -Dvernments concerr.ed, the Areerent will come into
force on Au-h us 1I, l', 8. In The case of the Unied Ctates, particir.., ti:'n in
the A-reemrnt depends upon con.ression-! :-.c.roval.

S Duration

The A-rerment is of five-.,-ear duration -- from Au--ust 1, 1-8i to Ju1;,' 31,
19c'. 'Provision is also made for theTn.ternational Wheat Council to communicate
to contracti.r rovernments, not later than Ju"', .l 1:-2, its recommendations
recardincr renewal of the A .reerent.

3_/ Coies of the full text of the AT.reement ma;:. be obt-iined from the Office of
-Forei--n Az.rirul.tural Relations, Washinrton JZ, D. C.


- 9 -






Scope

The Agreement currently includes 33 importing countries, among which
are all of the important wheat importers and 3 of the principal wheat export-
ing countries, Canada, Australia and the United States. The U.S.S.R. and
Argentina are not parties to the Agreement. Provision is made for the acces-
sion of additional countries, on terms and conditions established by the
Council. Included in the importing countries are all those under the Marshall
Plan with the exception of Turkey, Luxenbourg and Iceland, none of which are
large importers.

The Agreement does not apply to international or domestic distribution,
marketing, or price of any wheat except that quantity (500 million bushels
annually) set aside for trade between contracting governments under the terms
of the Agreement.

Table 2.-Purchases guaranteed by importing countries, five years
annually, beginning August 1, 1948


Quantity Country
: Thous. : Thous. bu.:


:met. tons


equiv. :


SQuantity
: Thous. : Thous. bu.


:met. tons


equiv.


Afghanistan 20 735 India 750 27,557
Austria : 510 18,739 Ireland 360 13,227
Belgium : 650 23,883 Italy 1,000 36,743
Brazil : 525 19,290 : Lebanon 75 2,756
China : 400 14,697 Liberia 1 37
Colombia 60 2,205 : Mexico 200 7,349
Cuba 225 8,267 : Netherlands 835 30,680
Czechoslovakia : 30 1,102 : New Zealand 150 5,511
Denmark 40 1,470 : Norway 205 7,532
Dominican : Peru 110 4,042
Republic 20 735 : Philippines 170 6,246
Ecuador 30 1,102 : Poland : 30 1,102
Egypt : 190 6,931 : Portugal 120 4,409
Fr. Union : So. Africa 175 6,430
and Saar : 975 35,824 : Sweden 75 2,756
Greece 510 18,739 : Switzerland 200 7,349
Guatamala 10 367 : United Kingdom 4,897 179,930
: Venezuela 60 2,205

Total 33 countries .......... ......................... 13,60~5 99,997



Quantities

Under the Agreement exporting countries agree to sell, and importing
counties agree to purchase, at prices within the range of the basic maximum
and minimum prices, a total of 500 million bushels of wheat per year. Of
this total, Canada will supply 230 million bushelas Australia, 85 million;
and the United States 185 million bushels. These quantities include wheat
moving in the form of wheat flour.


..


Country







l Total annual United States exports, in addition to the guaranteed
sales of the equivalent of 185 mil-lion bushels, will include wheat for
the zone of military occupation of Europe and the Pacific together with
a small amount for non-signatory countries. Military exports to occupied
areas are currently at an annual rate in excess of 150 million bushels.
Exports would also include small quantities to non-signatory countries.
Thus total exports in excess of 300 million bushels are indicated for the
United States.

Net exports from the United States have exceeded 300 million bushels
only in 1914-15, 1920-21, and in the 3 years beginning with 1945-46. Very
small wheat crops in 1933-36 greatly reduced exports from the United States
in the 30's and the war curtailed shipping in the early 40's. In 1921-30
net exports from the United States averaged 177 million bushels, while in
the 35 years since "1909, leaving, out the years of net imports, net exports
averaged 169 million bushels.

The total guaranteed sales under the agreement of 500 million bushels
by Canada, Australia and the United States is above the total, including
Argentina, in each of the 6 prewar years, 1933-38 (fig. 1). Total trade
-was sharply lower in the 30's compared with the 20's, largely as the result
'of measures which were adopted in many European countries to reduce imports.
..Imports were restricted in order to encourage increased domestic production.

.Adjustment of Obligations

Provision is made for adjustment of the obligations of any country
prevented by circumstances from carrying out its responsibilities. These
cover such cases as short crops in exporting countries and tho necessity
of safeguarding balance of payments or monetary reserves in importing
countries.

In a case of critical nood, an individual contracting government may,
appeal to the Council for assistance in obtaining supplies of wheat in
additch to its guaranteed quantity. This provision would be invoked only
in cases of extreme nmaorency such as the severe 1946-47 winterkill of
wheat and the subsequent 1947 -drought in western Europe.

'.Prices

The basic minimum and maximum prices for the duration of this
Agreement for No. 1 Manitoba Northern wheat in store Fort William,
Port Arthur, Canada, shall be:

Minimum Maximun

1948-49 $1.50 $2.00
1949-50 1.40 2.00
1950-51 1.30 2.00
1951-52 1.20 2.00
1952-53 1.10 2.00


. X-1 -


WS-105






For the purpose of advising the 'Council on prices equivalent to the bi4
maximum and minimum prices computed under the formula for any other descrip-
tion of wheat, a Standing Technical Advisory Committdb on Price Equivalents...
will be established. This Committee will consist'of representatives of the :iA
governments of Australia, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and
representatives of at least 2 other importing countries.
The equivalent price prevailing at a particular time-or shipping point
for any description of wheat will be-subject to transportation and other
costs, and exchange rates prevailing at that time. It will also be subject
to such allowances for differences in quality as may be mutually agreed by
the importing exporting parties concerned.

Table 3.-Determination of maximum prie equivalents'for spocifled domestic pointsl
for delivery to LAverpool, basis 11o. 1 Manitoba Northern in store Fort William'
at $2.00 no of February 1948 j/

: : : Price
: Inland .:: : Rail. : Ocean : Total :equivalent
Market :outloading :Elevation:Fobbing:freight : freight: costs :per bushel
: 2/ : 3/ : / : / : 6/ : : (in store),:
: : : : : : *____
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Dollars
per bu. per bu. per bu. per bu. per bu. per bu. per bu.
Galveston' : -- 7/8 -- 31-1/2 32-3/8 2.10-5/8
Baltimore : -- 7/8 -- 28-1/2 29-3/8 2.13-5/8
Kansas City : 7/8 2-7/8 7/8 19-1/8 31-1/2 55-1/4 1.87-3/4
Portland : -- 7/8 7/8 7/1.99-1/8

_ For Gulf and Atlantic Ports: Basis February freight and exchange rates and not;
allowing for difference in quality with Liverpool at $2.43 (No. 1 Manitoba Northerfl
in store Fort William/Port Arthur at $2.00 plus 14-1/4 cents to Montreal pls
28-1/2 cents to Liverpool.) Differences in quality will be determined by 'mutual
agreement between importing and exporting countries.
2/ 1/2 cent outloading, 1/4 cent incidental, 1/8 cent weighing and Inspection.
3/ 1 cent unloading, 1/2 cent storage, 1/2 cent conditioning, 1/2 cent rail shrink
age, 1/4 cent demurrage., 1/8 cent weighing and inspection.
4/ 1/2 outloading, 1/4 overtime, 1/8 cent weighting and inspection.
2/ February rail freight,, including 3 percent tax.
6/ February average ocean freight to U. K. from Gulf and Atlantic.
7/ Maximum price at Pacific Ports is set by agreement at $2.00 f.o.b. ship.


IL
!"- J





1WS-105


- 13 -


Examples shown in table 3 illustrate how the price formula would
operate on the basis of freight and other costs Rnd exchange rates exist-
ing in February 1948, without adjustment for d.ffer'ncos in quality, }lany
countries importing wheat from the United States make no price adjustment
for quality as compared with No. 1 Ilanitoba wheat, used as the basis for
computations. The price as determined in the illustration, which would
be roprescntativa for Hard Winter at Kansas City, is $1'.7-3/4.. This is
above all prices et that maricot between 1921 and 1945, as shown in figure 2.

The Agreement does not deal with domestic prices within the various
countries themselves. During periods when domestic prices in the United
States wvere higher than world prices or the agreed maximum price, because
of supply and demand conditions in the United States or because of the
operation of domestic support programs, some arrangement such as an export
subsidy would be necessary to facilitate exports.

Any exporter of wheat or flour would bc required to cooperate with
the Government in meeting the terms of the Agreement. Such cooperation
would consist of making sales to i,.porting countries having unfilled quotas
at prices within the range except for quantities of wheat or wheat flour
available for export in excess of the agreed exports.

Stocks

1Whenever there are available supplies of wheat which -nrc not needed
to meet domestic requirements or to discharge obligations under tec Agreement,
provision is made that exporting countries maintain stocks of old rher.t held
at the end of their respective crop years as follows: Australia, 25 million
bushels; Canada, 70 million bushels; and the United States, 170 million
bushels. In the case of Canada and Australia, the total represents commercial
stocks, while that for the United States represents the total carry-over (includ-
ing farm stocks), in addition to these quantities, both exporting and importing
countries shall operate price stabilization reserv-s up to 10 percent of their
respective guaranteed purchases and sales. These reserves are to be accumulated
when free-market prices arc below the bacic minimum prices rnd sold or utilized
as soon as freo-market prices are above the basic maximum price.

The carry-over in the United States in th:- prewar, 1932-41 period
averaged 235 million bushels. In 1942 it reached an all-time high of
631 million. It was C3 million in 1937 rnd 84 million in 1947, the lowe-st
since 1918. 4/

The Council

Provision is medo for administering the Agreement through an Inter-
national Wheat Council. Each contracting government shall be a member of the
Council, and may appoint one delegate and one alternate. Erch contracting
government also undertakes to accept as banding all decisions of the Council
under the provisions of thu Agreement.


4/ Carry-over together with net exports and other itens of supply and
distribution beginning with 1909 are shown in the Vhoset Situr'tion of September-
December 1947, page 11.






Powers and functions of the council .

'The Council is charged with responsibility for 'performing the duties
assigned to it under the Agroement. It is also give such additional powers,
as may be necessary to achieve effective operation of the Agreement and to
realize its objectives. The exercise of these powers must depend upon mutual .
cooperation and agreement within the Council itself, as a self-govering body.

Voting provisions

Delegates of importing countries shall hold a total of 1,000.votes oad .
delegates of exporting countries also shall hold a total of 1,000 votes. :
These votes are in each case to be distributed between the importing and ex- 4
porting countries in the proportion that each country's guaranteed purchases 4,
or sales bears to the total of the guaranteed purchases or sales. With the
Agreement in its present form, the United States would hold 370 votes or :
37 percent of the total votes held by the exporting countries. It follows ,
that in any case where a two-thirds majority of the importing and exporting
countries voting separately is required, agreement by the United States among
others would be necessary to decide an issue. A

Emergency allocations provisions

The following resolutions, unanimously adopted by the Council, were
recorded in the minutes of the final meeting of the special session of the
International Wheat Council on March 6, 1948.

"Resolution No. 1 The Special session of the International
Wheat Council held in Washington January-March 1948, hereby
instructs its Sectetary to inform the International Emergency
Food Committee of the FAO Council that as the figures in Annex
I to Article II of the International Wheat Agreement, signed
in Washington in March-April 1948, do not represent the total
requirements of the signatory countries, they should not be
regarded as a measure of these countries' needs."

"Resolution No. 2 The Special session of the International
Wheat Council, held in Washington January-March 1948,
recognizes that the International Emergeicy Food Committee
of the FAO Council is the appropriate body to recommend the
internatical distribution of wheat and other grains used
for naman nr.nsi.uiption during the continuation of the present
severe food emerG ncy, and that international trade in wheat"-
and other grains during this emergency should be in accord-
ance with that Committee's recommendations, provided that
the recommended distribution of wheat to no country is less
than its guaranteed purchases under the International Wheat
Agreement after adjustments, if any, effected in accord- A
ance with the provisions of Article V of that Agreement."









5w...... .-,X.




Table 15by areas, average 19-

Table 4.- Spring Tiheat: Seeded acreage by areas, average 1937-46, annual 1946-48


Area


: 1,000
: acres


.gring wheat other than
-7 Mont.,N.D., S.B., and I
Wash., Oreg., Ind Idah
SColo., Nebr., and A'yo.
Aill other States
S- Total
Ehrum wheat 1/
7, Total, all spring


: Average:
: 19357-46:


durum:
Ainn.
o


13,588
1,560

224
15,911
2,701
18,612


I Figures for durum represent:thre
u, th Dakota. Durum production in
' included with "other spring" wheat.


Table 5.- Durum and other spring
prod'

j TDuTum 2 7
Year: r *
Acreage 3/ Yield : Pro'

:1,000 acres Bushels 1,004

1938 : 3,793 10,5 39
1959 : 3,128 10.4 32
1940 : 5,371 9.6 352
1941 : 2,598 15.6 40
1942 : 2 155 19.1 41


1945
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948


3
2,156
2,099
2,026
2,493
2,952
3,092


15.7
14.1
16.2
14.4
14.9


33
29
32
4Z
43


1946


1,000
acres

15,220
1,155
272
201
16,948
2,493
19,5341


1948
1947 prospec-
194tive
:__ planting
1,000 1,000
acres acres


15,068
1,378
280
201
16,927
2,952
19,879


14,R834
1,350
2953
220
16,637
3,092
19,789


s 1948 as
: percen-
: tage of
: 1947
1,000
acres

98.4
98.0
104.6
109.5
93.6
1C4.7
99.5


e States only--Minnesota, North Dakota, and
other States is unimportant and figures are



wheat: Seeded acreage, yield per acre, and
action 19538-43 1/

th-er spring
duction: Acreage : Yield Production

0 bh; 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bu.


,715
,486
,294
,659
,236
,505
,666
,340
,836
,983


19,724
13,520
14,913
14,064
11 390
15,333
17,270
16,639
16,9493
16,927
16,697


10.4
10.6
12.7
16.2
18.9
17.3
16.1
15.4
14.6
14.9


195,020
143,052
189,543
227,535
225,986
272,832
278,544
257,550
246,495
252,966


I/ Data for 1929-57 in The ";heat Situation, March-April 1943, pa-e 11.
2/ Figures for durum represent three States only--Minnesota, North Dakota, and
South Dakota. Durum production in other states is unimportant and figures are
included with "other spring."









Sri. ... .





Table .6-All wheat and all spring wheat: Acreage, yield., and production, United States, 1919-48

(Data for cover chart)


All wneat.


Year of :
harvest : Seeded


. Spring wheat
. d -


" Yield


: Production


acreage


---- CMacres Bus-hel= T, UT-bus-eLs"-- T70"K crEs


Yields


Production


-BushTiel1 1T0 busoheti


B


1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946

1948


nPV~f~A


: 77,440 12.3 952"097 26,049 7,8 "203,637
: 69,977 12.4 843,277 .... 22,472 10.2 230,050 -
: 67,681 12.1 8i8,964 22,202 9.7 216,171
: 67,163 12.6 846,649 19,748 13.9 275,190
: 64,590 11.8 759,482 19,102 10.7 204,183
: 55,706 15.1 841,617 17,068 15.7 268,054 .
: 61,738 10.8 668,700 20,816 13.0 268,081
60,712 13.7 832,213 20,108 10.0 200,606
: 65,661 13.3 875,059 21,527 15.2 326,871
: 71,152 12.9 914,373 .22,721 14.8 335,307
67,177 12.3 824,183 23,032 10.3 237,126
: 67,559 13.1 886,522 22,311 11.3 252,713
: 66,463 14.2 941,540 "20,548 5.7 116,225
66,281 11.4 .756,307 22,653 11.7 264,796
: 69,009 8.0o 552,215 24,207 7.2 173,932-
64,064 8.2 526,052 19,228 4.5 87,369
69,611 9.0 628,227 22,175 7.2 -158,815 "-
73,970 8.5 629,880 23,984 4.4 106,277
80,814 10.8 873,914 22,969 8.1 185,340
78,981 11.6 919,913 22,517 10.4 234,735
62,802 11.8 *741,210- ....... 16,648 10.5 175,538
61,820 13.2 814,646 18,284 12.1 221,837
62,707 15.0 941,970 16,662 16.1 268,243
53,00o 18.3 969,381 14,145 18.9 267,222
55,984 15.1 843,813 17,469 17.5 306,337
66,190 16.0 1,060,111 19,369 15.9 308,210
69,130 16.0 1,108,224 18,715 15.5 290;390
71,536 16,1 .1,153,046 19,341. 14.6 282,321
: 77,947 17.5 1,364,919 -19,879, 14.9 296,.949
S : 78,437 14.2 .3,117,000 19,789 13b7 .7-0 .
..- .-. -" -. ....... .-
for 194a Indl ."'' .. ...,.i4' .:%""' :


.*4




M-
.-
; E1.








I3


*







,5S-105


Tehl-i 7. '.,e.at and Flari Export.; and *h ipmcmts, quarerly aend annually. In tnrrG ..r ornt, -- 1-47


Shark irj n0r in onlGr 7: F1
:.'ar a Re rt by : "
w1th a Consus : Cthe,
_____qllua tr:r Bureau 2: ,

i buhFels burelal


ouj im t-.rms or Kfrsin': irn Flrc- in tonnr of rrrein I
erorT Iy : iiReport hys bi. Randd
Census i Other I Cens-us : C'.hr I 'ri a C t",r total
Bureau a 2. BS"reau : 2, i ..ra 2' I
bu000 bush,00 1,0000 0s0 b ola b.,sl' ele bu-s hel
bushels bushels buasqls busnola -,-s1.el; bushels bushels


1941-42
J -Ti : 12,6.32

1942-43
Jul-Sept............ 1,342
Oct.-Deao. .......... 886
J5H"an.W. ,.---..-.., 1,217
Apr.-June ...........1 3,110
JULY-JTIIE ......... 6,655

1943-44
, Jul ..........: 2,754
Cct.-Doa. ............ 4,759
Jan.-ar. ............. 2,166
Apr.-June ...........: 2,263
JULY-JUIE : 11,942


1944-45 8
July-Sept............:
Oct.-Dea. ............
Jan.-iar. ...........:
Apr.-June ...........:
JUILY-JUIIE .........i

1945-46
July-spt. ..........:
Oot.-Deo. ...........:
Jan.-l.'ar. ...........:
Apr.-June ........... I
JUILY-JT.TIFE .........

1946-47 .
Jul'-3Fet. ..........
Oct.-pec. ...........:
Jan.-'ar. ............:,
Apr.-June ...........:
JULY-JTiIE


3,622
1,968
1,738
8,672
19,010


40,748
74 ,C0
67,693
43,215



4 587
59,85'.,
4 1, 7.9
2*.,394
144,029


1947-48
duly-Sept. ...........: 47,257
Oct.-Dec. ...........: 54,054


0 14,071 1,01-0


0
.0
0
0
C,
C--

0


6,638


2,700
8, 59
11,0"i
74,322
57,05C


19,310
5,29F.
7,783
15,393




E6,
17,'5'
13,501
54,781


40,526
-'x'in?


2,966
4,755
8,352
19,946


3,820
7,538
9,784
a, 2 .8
28.330


4,r01
6,064
A,356
9,176
22, 197


10,70*
19,267
25, 215
24,986



;1, 45

? '27
55,?71C
157,710


51 115 3, I .0


265
262
625
625
1,777


2,000
7,200
4 ,200

15,900


3,362
15,631
7,971
6F,.547
43,711


24,70
7,190
3,011
2,020
36,917


6.,200
C. 2 -ij
21,254
37,591


35,5i3 15,875
29,290 7,041


51
35
F2i

-17


199



3,-85


F 97


58 1
3,770


27 0 857
51 0 1,0'35


350 31.389


1,152
833
984
1,905
4,P74


775
595
443
1.JE4
2,.77


1,377
6933
1,279
1,051
,d 40


C,


0
0


0
0



C,
0


7,571
5,098
7,707
14-. 134
34,510


9,448
I,169
19,675
17,759
66,055


16,796
33.598
33,5EF6
69,889
152,948


94,703
107,079
105,312
B6,845
393.939


79,287
82,928
120,51
114,983
398,049


0 140,425
0 117,716


I2/ xcludqs flor nmilled in bond rfron roreir, wheet.
2' Practialliy all rdlita.r. "erortid .eparntelh' by '.:encms Bureau for 1947.
not be reported separatel:.


3e7ginr.r- r,-,tr Jan. ary 1'348 "otner" will


III I in


- 17 -






Table 8.- UNITED STATES GRAIN EXPORT PROGRAM., JULY-JUNE 1947-48
(1,000 long tons grain equivalent)


Country


: miheat : Other grains :
: and Flour : and :
: : _grain products :
: Thous. ili. Thous.
: tons bu, tons


Austria
Belgium
Bolivia
Brazil
China
Colombia
Cuba
Czechoslovakia
Denmark
Egypt
Finland
France and Fr. North Africa
French Colonies
Germany (US-UK)
Germany (French)
Greece
India
Ireland
Italy
Mexico
fIetherland s
Netherlands East Indies
New Zealand
Non.'ay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Sweden
Switzerland
Trieste
Turkey
Union of South Africa
United Kingdom
Syria and Lebanon
U. K. Pacific
Other U. K. areas
U. S. Pacific (Japan and
Korea)
Uruguay
Venezuela
Other Countries
Total long tons
Total million bushel equiv.


599
775
33
215
111
33
205
3
25
42
58
1,522
49
3,216
330
620
432
106
1,264
306
613
90

109
40
132
81
130

65
162
70
21
27
104
17
84
40

1,207

81
275
12,848
479.7


22.4
10.3
1.2
8.0
4.1
1.2
7.7
.1
.9
1.6
2.2
56.8
1.8
120.1
12.5
23.1
16.1
4.0
47.2
11.4
22.9
3.4

4.1
1.5
4.9
3.0
6.7

2.4
6.0
2.6
.3
1.0
3.9
.6
3.1
1.5

45.1

3.0
10.3

479.7


54
104

42

13
24

1
15

139
25
463
17
14
268
1
38
28
37
1
1
--

18
--

52
8
28


9
69


7

333
1
28
268
2,106
95.2


Total .
-.I
Thous.
tons

653
379
33
257
111 *
46 W
229 '"
3
26
57 51
58 A:
1,661
74 .
3,679
353
634
700
107
1,302
334
650
91
3
109 :
40
150
81
180
52
73 73
190
70-
21
36
173 '
17
84
47 .

1,540

109
543 .9
14,954 .'
574.9:


_/ Includes actual exports July through liarch, plus allocations (properly
adjusted for carry-overs to preshipments on April 1) and estimated shipments.:
of non-allocated products 4pril through June). ...:. :
:. **..-; s a




-i0 19 -


ble 9.- VWheat and Rye: Production and farm disposition, United States, 1929-47 1/

,.- : : Used for seed : Gound at mills:
Crop Production :.. : Home : Fed to : for home use t Sold or
;.Year : TQtal : grown : livestock : or exchanged : for sale
S: : 2/ : 2/ : for flour :
1 005bu-.. 1,000 bu. 1,000 Lu. 1,000 000 bu.00 bu. 1,000 bu.
*.'- Wheat
1929 :- 47 ,--- 4T ---8 --0'7Sr- -5 27 --'76--6 677,922--
1950 : 886,522 81,132 73,035 157,014 10,181 641,292
?191 : 941,540 80,071 73,356 173,834 15,082 679,263
1952 : 756,307 83,760 79,617 124,691 16,125 535,874
93s 5 552,215 78,051 68,245 72,132 16,296 395,542
:9534 : 526,052 82,686 66,360 83,588 15,455 360,649
$36 : 628,227 87,479 75,158 83,375 16,179 453,515
O"36 : 629,880 95,896 71,471 88,638 13,723 456,043
i; 1957 873,914 93,060 80,914 112,613 13,226 667,161
F"1958 919,913 74,225 65,651 123,103 13,639 717,520
- 1959 : 741,210 72,946 60,185 91,737 11,084 578,204
1940 : 814,646 74,351 C2,047 38,972 10,548 643,279
1941 941,970 62,490 54,004 98,371 9,020 780,075
1942 969,381 65,437 55,040 "31,315 7,259 815,767
1943 : 843,813 77,351 61,571 89,321 5,690 686,731
1944 :1,060,111 30,373 64,731 103,420 5,383 986,577
1945 1,108,224 82,011 67,371 93,201 4,871 937,791
1946 *1,153,046 86,498 68,491 85,701 3,850 995,004
19473/1,364,919 91,363 73,655 94,249 4,285 1,192,730

Rye ___
1929 : 35,411 7,050 3,436 9,276 250 22,449
1930 : 45,383 7,740 3,796 18,638 261 22,638
1931 : 32,777 7,813 5,463 14,624 283 14,402
1952 : 39,099 6,854 3,462 16,890 296 18,451
.1953 .:. 20,573 7,585 2,695 7,829 259 9,790
1954 : .16,285 8,616 2,102 6,427 236 7,520
1935 : 56,938 8,701 4,031 21,594 339 30,924
1936 : 24,239 9,990 3,080 10,216 227 10,716
1937 : 48,862 9,105 4,119 17,493 302 26,948
1938 : 55,984 9,710 4,440 21,522 294 -29,758
1959 38,562 7,378 3,662 16,111 1:89 18,600
1940 : 39,725 8,079 3,394 16,242 163 19,926
1941 43,878 8,283 3,650 16,5238 155 23,545
942 : 52,929 6,841 3,294 20,673 163 28,794
.3945 : 283,680 5,753 2,517 13,729 96 12,338
':1944 : 22,525 5, 29 2,166 Q,602 64 11,693
'.1945 : 23,952 4,454 1,394 .,354 52 15,652
!1946 18,879 4,897 1,829 3,823 39 13,198
19472 25,977 4,968 2,036 4,261 35 19,595

1'/ Wheat: Data for 1909-28 in The .\heat Situation for May 1941, page 16; Rye:
:ata for 1909-28 in The ..heat Situation for K!arch-April, 1945., page 19.
"./ Relates quantities used by producers on their own farms: additional quantities
're also utilized.
;i!/ Preliminary.






Table 10.-Wheat: Weighted average cash price: specified markets and dates,.1947 48

Month :All classes : No..-2 I"NO. 1 : ":-o. '2 : No. 2 : Soft
and :and grades : Hard N Dark : ard : Red : White
date :slix markets: Winter I/ : N. Spring :Amber- Durum: Winter :Portland
: :Kansas Cit :Minneapolle :Minneapolis :St. Leuie : 2
1: l 948 7 l'l19-i9: 7: 194-9T--9 : -94 -19-T -' 19 7: 8


Months:
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Week ended
Feb. 7
14
21
28
Mar. 6
13
20
27
Apr. 3
10
17
24
May 1


:$2.18
: 2.28
: 2.67

: 2.22
: 2.25
: 2.30
: 2.35
: 2.51
: 2.70
: 2.77
: 2.77
: 2.60
: 2.64
: 2.64
: 2.63
2.57


$3.15 $2.09
2.68 2.26
2.61. 2.69

2.91. 2.17
2.60. 2.22
2.58. 2.29
2.57 2.34
2.67 2.56
2.56 2.75
2.63. 2.82
2.56. 2.80
2.62 2.61
2.62 2.71
2.67. 2.69
2.62 2.69
2.57 2.67


$3.03
2.51
2.45

2.82
2.4C
2.43
2.43
2.53
2.43
2.48
2.38
2.44
2.46
2.49
2.46
2.39


S$.2.2.5 $
- 2.31
2.72

2.26
2.28
2.33
2.39
2.55
2.75
2.80
2.79
S2.64
2.64
i2.67
S2.64
2.61


3.20 $2.24
2.77. 2.25
2.67. 2.50


2.94
2.65
2.66
2.66
2.78
2.63
2,71
2.55
2.65
2.67
2.73
2.67
2.61


2.18
2.22
2.25
2.32
2.37
2.52
2.63
2.58
2.44
2.48
2.51
2.48
2.34


$3.19
M.84
2.94

2.99
2.77
2.75
2.80
2.98
2.93
2.95
2.84
3.04
3.11
3.07
3.08
2.98


$2.33
2.39
2.81

2.34
2.42
2.41
2.40
2.66
2.78
2.88
2.96
2.91
2.82
2.82
2.71
2.67


$3.12 $.88 4,a5
2.87 1.98 2.3
2.54 2.29 2.3$1


2.94


2.48
2.60
2.50

2.52
2.59
2.56
2.59
2.51
2.43


1.91
1.99
2.03
2.07
2.20
2.30
2.29
2.40
2.30
2.30
2.35
2.38
2.34


2-.
2.3
2.
2.31
2.34`:

2.39
2.41
2.41
2.381
2.34


SBeginning July 9, 1947 sales of hard and dark hard winter combined.
Average of daily cash quotations.


Table 11-Wheat: Average closing prices of May wheat futures, specified
markets and dates, 1947 1948

: Chicago : Kansas CitL : Minneapolis
Period : *
Period 1947 : 1948 1947 1948 1947 1948
: ,' : ." 4 ..,


Month: *:
Jan.
Feb.
Mar. :
Week ended *:
Feb. 7
14
21
28-:
Mar. 6
13
20
27
Apr. 3
10
17
24 :
May 1 :


$1.95
2.16
2.58

2.03
2.11
2.24
2.33
2.46
2.62
2.60
2.65
2.50
2.55
2.57
2.59
2.61


$2.96
2.47
2.40

2.71
2.42
2.36
2.37
2.46
2.37
2,37
2.40
2,44
2.47
2,50
2.48
2.43


'$1.88
2.08
* 2.50

* 1.96
2.04
* ,2.15
* 2.24
* 2.37
* 2.55
2.54
2.58
S 2.44
2.51
2.52
2.53
2.54


$2.85
2.36
2.29

2.60
2.30
2.26
2.27
2.35
2.25
2.26.
2.28
2.33
2.36
2.39
2.37
2.32


$1.93 $2.91. ;'
2.12 2.44
2.52 2.38

2.01 2.67 .'3
2.08 2.39 ,.|
2.19 2.34 ..
2.29 2.34 +
2.41 2.43 '
2.58 2.33
2.54. .2j35 "
2.56 2.38 ,
2.42 .2.42.:
. 2.47 2.U46'
2.50 2.50. -
2.51 L.,;-Aij
- 2.52 a2.4,


-





- 21 -


Table 12.- Wheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries,
Friday nearest mid-month, Jan.-Apr., and weekly,
Feb.-Apr. 1948

HARD 'HEAT HARD WHEAT : SFT HEATT
United States : Canada :United States: United : Aus-
Date :No. 1 H.D. N.Sp.:No. 2 Canadian :No. 1 D.H.J. : States :tralia
(Friday) :13 pet. protein :Man. No. at : Galveston : No. 1 :
at Duluth :Fort William : 1/ :Portland :
1/ : C-2/ : 1/
: Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars
Friday mid-month:
Jan. 16 : 3.23 3.34 3.19 2.91 ---
Feb. 13 : 2.52 2.59 2.345 2.10 ---
jiar. 12 : 2.62 2.61 2.555 2.25 3.30
Apr. 16 2.79 2.69 2.615 2.40 ---
.Jeekly
Feb. 6 2.77 2.85 2.63 2.40 --
20 : 2.57 2.59 2.49 2.27 --
27 : 2.58 2.63 2.53 2.32
U9ar. 5 : 2.8b 2.76 2.59 2.45
19 : 2.63 2,60 2.465 2.34
25 : 2.65 2.65 2.58 2.37
Apr. 2 2.60 2.67 2.555 2.38 ---
9 2: .67 2.70 2.62 2.40 --
23 : 2.62 2.62 2.49 2.32 --
30 : 2.63 2.66 2.50 2.37 ---
May 7 2.60 2,68 2.535 2.39

I/ F.O.B. spot or to arrive. 2/ Fort .Jilliam quotation is in store.


Table 13.- Wheat: Stocks in the United States on April 1, 1943-48 I/

Stocks position 1943 1944 : 1945 : 1946 : 1947 Z 1948
? 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels
Farm ..................... 321,179 219,137 233,856 198,481 139,351 256,533
Interior mills, eleva-
tors, and warehouses ...: 176,591 66,535 130,386 36,477.. 61,000 73,476
Terminals (commercial) ...: 212,131 123,700 99,644 34,317. 32,838 70,174
Merchant mills and mill
elevators ..............: 123,455 96,388 78,788 55,899 71,957 73,565
Commodity Credit Corp.,
wheat in transit and in
steel and wood bins ....: 62,712 38,515 15,770 6,961 2,903 3,845
Total .............. 896,068 544,275 558,444 332,135 308,549 477,593


Commercial stocks at terminals are reported by the Production and Marit.eting
Administration. Commodity Credit wheat in their steel and wooden bins and in
transit are'reported by the Commodity Credit Corporation. Stocks in the other
three positions are estimated by the Crop Reporting Board.
I7/ Tablp includes revisions in fary stocks beginning-vwith 1940. Total stocks
Apr. 1 1940-42 in thousand bushels are as follows: 433,569, 544,987, 809,868.
SFits in the table include quantities owned by the Government or still out-
ndj Gvernrnent loan.







OFFICIAL BUSINESS

BAE-WS-105-5/48-3500
PERNIT 1'O. 1001







S/.R.-,. 104:33


* ;






U. IV R2TY OF FLA LIBRARY
REFERENCE DEPT
.FNS-X GAINESVILLE FLA

22 -


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08862 6543





.4.2


Table 14. Vhert: Supply and distribution in Canada, -Argentina and
Australia, average 1929-33 and 1934-38, and annually I
1942-48

: Aver- : Aver- : : : : : :
Item : age : are :1942-43: 1943-44: 10944-45:1945-46 1946-4711947-
:1929-33:1934-38: : : : a" : 48',
--: -i. mr iT. .Mil, 12il. i1. 111b. *Mi1. biu
: b.. bu. bu, bu bu, : bu, bu, bu :


uanada
Stocks Au. r I .....
Production .........
Total supplies ...:

Domestic use ...... :
Net exports Y/ ... :
Stocks July 31 :
Total distribution:

Argertina
Stocks Jan. 1 .....:
Production *..,...,:
Total" s'ppliec ..:

Domestic use ......:
Vet exports .......:
.Stocks Dec. 31 *...:
Total diztributionr


149 121
354 263
503 384

117 110
222 173
164 101
5C'3 384


15
228
243


93
137
13
?C3


424 595
557 284
981 879


356 258 74 84
417 1319 414 341
773 577 488 426


183 175 181 171 161
203 348 334 336 243 5/
595 356 258 70 84
981 879 773 577 488


12 155 193- 180 81 29 25 ,J
244 235 250 150 144 206 2350
256 390 443 330 225 235 255,

98 121 3/166 151 143 127
122 76 97 98 53 B 83
36 193 180 81 29 25
256 390 443 330 225 235


Australia :
Stocks Dec. 1 .....: 15 18 104 154 78 12 20 14
Production .......," 184 154 156 110 -53 142 117 228
Total supplies ..: 199 172 260 264 :..131 *....154 137 2
Domestic use ......: 5 55 69 96 100 74 77
Pet exports ..a....: 124 103 37 90 .19 60 46 .
Stocks Io". 3C ....: 20 14 154 7S 12 -* 0 .~1L..--
Total dstrlbution 199 172 260 264 131 154. 137

Includes Canadian wheat in U. S. 2/ Customs exports used for entire periodic
/ Includes ise ofvwheat as fuel and also loss due to grain going out of cond4t.b,
/ Partly estimated. 5/ On April I a total of abo f260 ill ijtbushel ...i
available for export ding the remainder of he d eren mar t.ng ya. a.
-'. .dJ j




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