Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00002

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Full Text
34 3 4 ,' // 0


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL E COJr.MICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

hI1p MARCH- APPIl 1 *


Ir this issue:
The Internat ronal Wheat A.jrecmrnnt
The Rice Situation



ALL WHEAT AND ALL SPRING WHEAT ACREAGE,YIELD.
AND PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-49


SEEDED ACREAGE ,heat*





I -
I I / prinq L',Pe.t ,
25 ci-'-- -I-------------.,, -
-. ...- )


SBUSHEL

12.


: .' YIELD PER
~r '. f ,,~'' ^ SEEDED ACRE "" ""



-- A- wha---- -er -
l ,i, t
t' I V


0
.* ,,.,.. ,: .PRODU.ICTIN f





., t ..'-.. t ',

o FI


1 ? 1I 43 1946 1 J-
S. NARY


A total of 81.67 million acres of all wheat is reported seeded or to be seeded for
J134 This includes the prospective spring -iheat acreage and last DecemDer's estimate
of winter wheat seeded acreage. This total would be about : percent abo/e the 77.75
mi 1 lion acres seeded for the 1948 crop. and I percent above the previous rec'nr -I f
80.81 million acres seeded for the 1937 crop.
On March I, growers reportp1 that the planned to seed 20.30 million icres .-If .ll
spring wheat. This is about 4 percent 1n.' the 13.5% million acres seeded in 9I'ji .
Very large yields have been iar1q.l. responsible for the record crops procj.ced I t
recent years. Present prospects arr f-ir '* e rouc.tinn of a near-record crcp In 1949'.


FOR RELL [
APR. 20 i M



SIT UATI()N


THE


WS 110


--


191'? 19 C 9 5 28 19 1 193J


; CE L .A E I : ; I A s IL I -


.-aCULTURAL ECONC-






WHEAT: ACREAGE SEEDED, BY REGIONS, UNITED STATES, 1919-49


1920


1925 1930 1935 1940


1945


1950


NUMBER OF STATES INCLUDED SHOWN IN PARENTHESES


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


DATA FOR 1948 AND 1949 ARE PRELIMINARY

NEG. 31781 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Wheat acreage increases are general for the 1949 crop, except in the Pacific
Northwest, where there was little change. Based on preliminary figures, in the hard
red winter region the increase amounts to 8 percent, in the spring and durum region 5
percent and in the soft red winter region 2-1/2 percent.
From 1929 through 1933, acreages were fairly stable. In 1949 the acreage of hard
winter wheat is 40 percent higher than in 1929-33, while in the soft red winter region
It is 13 percent above that average. The Pacific Northwest and spring and durum re-


ACRES
(MILLIONS)





W-11.0


THE WHEA r S I TUATI ON
Inc2uiin:r rice


Approved by the Cutlook and '-tuatic.n Loard, April 11, 1949

SUMMARI OF THE WEIAT OUTLOOK FOP 1949-50

With the likelihood that the ]Q49 wheat crown In the Unitad States
will materially exceed domestic di p.rear.r'- a."i exports, market prices
for this crop are e.':ie5te. to fall :.clow .:he loci., rate l1o'i: ,*ba harvest
and probably average at about the lon 1Dr the :,Lareting year as a wh le.
If the index of prices paid b,- farmers includ.n', interest anr. taxes is
the same on Juno 15 (the period for deterninirE wheat parity for the loan)
as on March 1,, or 22'6, the rate on the nvr crop at 90 percent of lari.ty
would be abcut $2.20 for No. 2 ur.rd V.inter at Kmnsan City. A comparable
rate for the 1948 crop was $2.23 per bushel.

A winter wheat .crop of ],023 mill-ion bih-irela was indicated as of
April 1. rrodi'ction of spring wheat .:aE nt ye teen est-inaced. However,
if yields per seed.e: acre sheoild eq-ial the 19,'.-17 avereae on the
prospective spring acreage, atout 1,. million buishnl would b'e produced.
This would give a total wheat production of 1.310 million bushels, second
only to the 1,36' million proaucted in 194;. With a domestic. use c.' about
665 million bushels (ford assumed at 490, feed 1'0, 5nd seed 'I, a cr'op
of this size would prov-'de ab-.ut 6.' million bushels fc.r export in
1949-50 and. for addition to the carry-over July 1, 1c c0.

Exports in 1949-i5 ,:,f 450 million bushels would leave around 200 mil-
lMn Inf hels tn be addrtA to -Iue c-.rry-over ;:ith old-crop Ptuc'-s on
July 1, 199', this w':uld mean a carr.,-over July 1, 1950 of about "00 mil-
lion bushels, which comnares with the 1932-41hi average of 23.5 millio--n, and
the all-time record high of 631 million in 1942.

Europe apparently seeded a somewhat smaller acreage of winter wheat
last fall than it did a year earlier On the basis of the season to mid-
March. -- the very good yields per acre obtained in r.ost areas in 19)4-
. ill not be repeated this year, Feports indicate tnat intensive campaigns
will be made in some areas to incre-ase spring plantings. The effect on
total production of an increase in spring wheat acreage is expected to be
small, however, since winter wheat usually accounts fir more than 90 percent
of the total wheat area, and spring varieties in Europe are generally
lowe:,-yielding than winter varieties.

A four-.'ear International Whieat Agreement fixing a range of prices
within which a56 million bushels of wheat, including 1i.3 mill:'n from the
United. States, will move annually in wzrld trade was concluded on -arch
23 by the International Wheat Conference whichh had been meeting in Wash-
ington since late January. Subject to ratification by the governments
concerned, the Agreement will &o into force not Ieter than Septemter 1, 1949.


(bummary of the 1948-h9 Situation follows)


- 3 -





I.MARCH-A/PRIL 1949 4 '

SUi.'UARY OF TIT 1943-49 FLAT SITUATION


Total disappearance of -.heat in 1943-49 is now expected to be about ,
1,170 million Lushels, Of this total 435 would be for food, 90 million
for feed, 95 milli-m for seed and FOO million for export. With total sup-
plies of 1,.1_84 million biirhels, consisting of July 1 stocks of 196 million
and production of 1,288 million bushels, the carry-over July 1. 1949 is
estimated at 30nl-325 million bushels.

Cash wheat prices in Ifarch continued around loan levels. If prices
do not advance enough to covcr loan value plus cost, much of the 364 mil
lion bushels of heat undrr loan or purchase agreement Mill be delivered ..
to CCC followinC the April 30 expiration date. As a result, the carry- .
over on July 1 rould bc :mostly CCC owned. If free market supplies should ..
fall beloi; minimum requirements before the new crop 'meco:.ies available CCC
Right sell some of its vhca-c in the d-'me:.tic market. In December there
wias an announcement whichh established a pri'e floor, below which CCC could .
not sell. This floor vaEs the lo'.'est of Whe following: (1) a rrice that ,
will reimburse CCC for its costs; (2) 90 percent nf the parity price; and
(3) a price halfwa:,- bctrv-n th. support price and parity.


S'L.'MA2Y 0' THJ. EICE SITUATION


Rice production in lhe 'Jni':cd States was increased greatly when
Oriental trade in ) icu r'ias cut off' bby +l e aar. This Far Eastorn trade has
not yet been restored, and in 1948 vas only abcut 30 percent of prewar.

Rice prices to grnwers for dic 1948 crop have b:-en above tie loan
but arr bclo: t.L- all-ti-re high level for the 1947 crop. This is the first
bear in which growers ha--e avallcd tier.slves of the loan and purchase
agrceet.nt prngrar. '""ith oxpor- deranri prospects lcs, favorable, prices
for the 1l'49 crop may be somc-.nrat lo'.cr than for the 1948 crop.

The prospective s-edings of rice arf: estimated at 1,755,3000 acres
this '"ar, only sl' -htly s allc.r thr.n the 1949 record planting. If the
intt.nderd seedings mat'.rialize and yields ;cr acre equal the 1943-47
average, this year's rice production "'ill amount to about 79 million
bush.cls, or about 2 million bushels b,_lov: last year's record crop.


(E.-d nf .-unriary statenents.)







,I, .

,4





V.S-3 10


- 5 -


TIIL OUTLOOK FOR "7i AT Ii! 1949-50

"BACKGROUND,- The acreage s,- ed rto wheat for the 1949
crop, estimLtcd at, about C0l7 zillion acres, is 5 percent
above Ut e 77.7 million acres scecled for the 1947 croj ard
24 percent rbove the 59..3 million-acre avxcztnc for 1939-43
when exports cere small and c:arr,-o. r st,, ks accu:r-nlatcd, I/
Seedings of 81.7 million acres a.-c 14 per-?nt above the
goal of 71.5 million acres, rViicn wns considered neces-ary
at average yields to meet estia',cd domestic di--ap-osrariee
and exports, Yiclds per seq',;dd acr-3 have bucen v-ry l-rre
in recent year, and h.-e been largely responsible for the
record crops produced.

nn abnormal world drmnand for bread grains made it
possible to move the excess ovcr domestic needs from four
record wheut crops produced in 1944-4:7, and to minimize
the incrca' in the z-izr of the -arry-ovcr on July 1, 1948
(table 4 ).

On July 1, 1945, stocks of :'...It in the four
principal exporting c-ontries v.erc n record of 1,7..7 mil-
lion tushels. bv JuLy 1945, 'ho'.e- er, they were uo,"n to
218 million bushels, 'LTe .,E we'.e 87 million in 1946 qnd
385 million in 1947, Grj-ctly incran.t.,,d disaL)prc:ran'?e was
cn.ursed .y wartime deplctin -:i' food suiplip s in nimpcirting
ccuntrixes .-nd by poor crops In' :,.any areas., Stock-s i"n these
cuLtlncrics on July 1, 137 wcre the smallest sincr. 1938, and
were about 16 percctnt lcrs in-n the 19.G-b. average of
458 million bushels, '-n July 1, 1918 theo'e s'to:l-s had in-
creastd to 552 million hus! hls0

Prospect Are -hat Crop "'ill ?.c 'fear
Record; Ca ry-Over July 195 i ay fr.-al
about 500'-.*al.Lion [uzhc1s

A winter wheat crop of 1,00 million bushels v.as jnr;icate. as of
April 1. Production of spring vhcat .has not yet Kren estimntrd. How-
evur, if yi.:lds peor seeded ac.-e shr';lId equal the 1036-47 aver'.ge on the
prospective spring acreage, ab.ut ?29 million bunsi17 s w.-7uld be produced. _/
This v...uld rive a total viheat production of 1,310 million bushels, second
only to the 1,367 million produced in 1347. "ith a -mosrt'.c -se of about
665 million bushels (food assumed at 490, f'ed 100, and seed 75), a cr.op
of this size would provide about 6.C0 million bi.,hels frc- e.:port in 1949-50
and for addition to :.he carry-over July 1, 19P0.
/ Until the snri'E o2f 143 it v.as thl policy of the Go1crrnmecnt, under
the acre'agie adjustment progrti,, to lirit acre:L'e +o an uamou'it rhich would
meet domestic qnd. export needs and provide a carry-over v'inch included a
reserve for 1ryers nf sEall yields, In February 1C.-.3 aciea,-e and narleting
restrictions were removed, permitting increas-d s,-dings in the spring of
1943, Total acreage "nd spring acr-.age, 1919-49 ar? sho.n in table 5
2/ The first indication for sprin,'- -hrat .'ill be issued on June 10.




. 7" "'.7


MARCH-APPIL 1949


- 6 -


Exports in 1949-50 of 450 million bushels Y.oiuld leave around 200 mil-
lion bushels to bL: added to the carry-over. ':'ith old-crop stocks on July 1,
1949, this would mean a carry-ovwr July 1, 1950 of about 500 million bushels,
which comparr-s with th'- 1932-41 average of 235 million, and the all-time
record i4gh of 631 million in 1942. The size of exports in 1949-50, will
depend upon the way the crops turn out in both the exporting countries and
importing countries. Production in Europe probabl.t will not be as large
as in 1943 because a smaller acreage is indicated and yields ar..: unlikely
to reach last year's unusually high level. In addition to crop outturns,
the financial and political role played by the United States in inter-
national affairs will continue to be very important in detennLning thr.
quantity of United Status exports.

Exports of 450 million bushels are consistent with the International
Wheat Agreement, when it is recognized that exports to military zones and
non-'.gr.eament countries as well as quantities ship, d to importing countries
in excess of guarantred takings, all are in addition to export quotas under
the proposed agreement.

A carr'-ovt r of around 5'30 million bushels would provide insurance
against adverse crop years or y.:Rrs of unusually high demands. The cros-
pect of a carry-o.ver of this size suggests a smaller acreage for the 1950
crop, with a view' of check' ing fulrt1her increases in the carry-ov,-r. In
many areas a do.nmward adjustment of i hcat acreage is desirable in the
interest of the best long-time u-'i of :.oil resources.

Total aJheat Acreage Largest on Record;
Sriing: Wheat Increased 3.6 Percent
Winter 'flieat 5.5 Percent

A total of 31.7 million acres of all wheat is rEported seeded cr
to be seeded for 1949. This includes the prospe-ctive cprinr wheat acreage
and last December's estimate of winter-wheat seeded acreage. An acreage
of this size would be the largest on. record, slightly exceeding the pre-
vious record of 80.0 million acres in 1937.

On March 1, growers reported that they planned to reed 20.30 million
acres of all springg wheat. This is 3.6 percent larger than the 19.59 mil-
lion acres planted in 1943 and 11. percent larger than thp 1938-47 average
of IC.32 million planted acres. (The increase in winter wheat acreage
report-ed in Dec-anber was 5.5 percent.) The intended seedings of durum
wheat of 3.39 million acro's is nrariy 1. ner.rcnt mor.: th i t> 3.25 million
acres e-ded la st year, and 27 percent nore than th' 1938-47 averag.: of
2.63 million acres. Incrc as. in dJurum -.heat. crJr.? are indicated -t
20 ncrccnt for SoutU Dako La, 10 percent for Minnesota and '3 perc rnL for
North Da'ota.

Intended acreage of ather z,.ring wheat is 16.'" million acres, an
incrcaj,- of j.. nercernt over the 16.34 million acre.: brseaed in 1948 talee
6). The acreage, in th" Dakotas, kcintana, and ilinnit -ota i.1 increased by 4.6
percent (tablt 6). The acreaCe in Colorado, Ir;.-raska ant :yoming is 2.0 per-
cent below 1948, and that in the Pacific 1'ortht:cst 21.4 pe.rcirnt below.: 1949.


ii















N
A:


S.4
t.<

I






"1
'J

'





WS-110


- 7 -


The Crop Report of April 10 reported that soil moisture was
generally ample for spring development, particularly in the Great Plains
from New Mexico and Texas northward, with the possible exception of
southeastern Colorado.

Crop Prospects in May Counrries
below Year Ago

The acreage of winter wheat seeded in Europe in the fall of 19'9
evidently was somewhat less than that of a year earlier. While it is yet
too early for definite indications of prospective yields, it is unlikely
that the very-good yields per acre obtained in most areas in 1948 will be
repeated this year. Reports indicate that intensive campaigns will be made
in some areas to increase spring plantings. The effect of these cimpeigns
will be limited, however, since winter wheat usually accounts for more than
90 percent of the total wheat area, and spring varieties in Europe are
generally lower-yielding than winter varieties.

Unfavorable weather during the fall seeding period cut the acreage
of winter wheat in some areas, particularly in Portugal and in southeastern
Europe. In other areas, the decrease from a year ago is partly the result
of relatively more favorable returns from other grains and from livestock.
Countries in which a decline from the 1948 level of winter wheat acreage
is reported include the United Kingdom, Ireland, Portugal, Sweden,
Yugoslavia, and Greece. Winter wheat acreage ii Bulgaria and Rumania
also may be below the 1948 level. Increases are reported fir the Low
Countries, Denmark, Poland, and Hungary. The acreage of Winter wheat in
France and Italy is reported to be approximately the same as in 1948.

In general, the winter in Europe has been open and mild with
precipitation below average in most areas. In western Europe and parts
of central Europe, however, the condition of winter wheat is reported to
be satisfactory despite moisture deficiencies. The effects of dry-weather
are apparently most unfavorable in Spain and Portugal, and in southeastern
Europe. Latest reports indicate, however, that rather general precipitation
during early March provided at least temporary relief in most areas.

In the U.S.S.R. the acreage planted in the fall of 1948 to winter
grains (winter wheat and winter rye), increased by approximately 7 million
acres or 8 percent compared with the acreage seeded in the fall of 1914'.
The winter wheat acreage in the Ukraine increased by approximately
1.6 million acres. There was little snow in a number of central and
western areas of the U.S.S.R., but the winter was mild and winter killing
probably not above average. The lack of snow, however, ztiy affect
adversely the 1949 moisture supply.

In Canada some increase in wheat acreage is expected. Fall moisture
in the Prairie Provinces of Canada up to freezing time last fall was only
64 percent normal, much less than the 121 percent a- year earlier-. Also
unfavorable is a prediction by entomologists of one of the severest out-
breaks of grasshoppers ever experienced in Canada. Plans are being made
to carry out as effective control methods as possible.





MARCH-APRIL 199


Soil conditions in Australia favor plowing for the crop to be
harvested in December. In Argentina, little change from the small
acreage of the past 2 years is expected. Rainy weather has improved
the soil for plowing.

In India, where the 1949 harvest has already started, a crop of
around 360 million bushels is unofficially indicated. This compares with
340 million bushels in 1908 and the 1935-39 average of 370 million.

Wheat Loan in 1949 May Be Slightly below
1908; Price for "Marketing Year yr
Average aoout at Loan

With the likelihood that the 1949 wheat crop in the United States,
will materially exceed both domestic disappearance and exports, prices
for this crop are likely to fall below the loan rate following harvest
and probably average about at the loan for the marketing year as a whole.

Price supporting loans on the 1949 wheat crop are provided at
90 percent of the mid-June parity. If the index of prices paid by
farmers including interest and taxes is the same on June 15 (the period
for determining, wheat parity for the loan) as on March 15, or 246, the
rate on the new crop .at '0) percent cf parity would be about $2.20 for
No. .2 Hard Winter at Kansas City, I/ A comparable rate for the 1948 crop
Was $2.23 per bushel. On a national farm basis, the comparable loan rate
.would be $1.96 compared with $2.00 for the 1948 crop.

THE CURRENT WHEAT SITUATION

-BACKGROUND.- -In 1932-1l, the supply of wheat in conti-
nental United States averaged 982 million bushels consisting
of cbarry-in of old wheat, 235; production, 738, and imports
fordomestic use, 9. Total disappearance averaged 721, con-
sisting of food, 475; feed, 122; seed, 81; and exports and
shipments 3. Carry-over stocks at the end of this period
were much larger than at the beginning.

Net exports from the United States have exceeded q
300 million bushels only in 1914-15, 1920-21, and each of the
past A years beginning in 1945-46. Very small United States
wheat crops in 1933-36 together with drives toward greater
self-sufficiency in many countries greatly reduced exports in
the 30's and the war curtailed shipping in the early 40's.
In 1921-30, net exports from the United States averaged 177 mil-
lion bushels. In the 35 years since 1909, leaving out the years
of net imports, net exports averaged 169 million bushels.


3/ Parity is determined by multiplying the base price of 88.1 cents per
bushel (average 60 months from August 1909 to July 1914) by the index of
prices paid interest and taxes (1910-14 = 100) which in mid-June 1948 was
251 percent. The loan at 90 percent of the resulting $2.22 parity equaled
$2.00 at the national farm level. j


- 8 -








Wheat prices to grcwers advanced from an average of
68 cents per bushel in 1910- L1 to a record of $2,81 in mid-
January 1948,-and a record season average of $2.29 for the
1947 crop. From 1938 to late 1944 the loan program, whicr
reflected the general rise in prices farmers pay, was the
most important factor in domestic wheat prices. From
1942 through 1945 wheat feeding was exceptionally heavy and
very large quantities of wheat were used for ,ar industrial
purposes, Beginning IL early 1945 exports became the most
important price factor.

In 1917-48, Un"ted States wheat prices reflected the
unavailability cf feed grains for export, the additional
world demand resulting from r ort crops in importing
countries,,and the continue rise in the general price
level. With the harvest of the near-rccord crop in 1908 and
favorable crops in importing cacntries, the loan program
again became an important price factor.

Carry-over July 1 May Total
IOO=25 Million Bushels

Exports for the year ending June 3' are expected to total about
500 million bushels. Exports through February ootalad 351.5 million
bushels, of which 250 million were wneat ani 101.5 mi-lion of wheat as
flour. TRis would leave 217.5 million bushels for export in the remain-
ing months, or about 37 million a month compared to 4 million per month
for the first 8 ncnths. Domestic disappearance may not exceed 670 rmil-
lion bushels, of which 485 million would be for food, 9) million for feed,
and 95 million for seed.

With supplies for the year Lot-.ling 1,48h million bushels (carry-
over July 1, 194!8 of 196 million and production of 1,288 million) and a
total disappearance of i,160 million bushels (exports and domestic), a
carry-over cf 300-325 million bushels is indicated fcr July 1, 1949.

Market Price Will Determine Deliveries
to CCC; Cash Wheat fay Be
Limited before New Harvest

Cash wheat prices in March continued around loan levels. If prices
do not advance enough to cover 'oan value plus costs, much of the wheat
under loan or purchase agreement will be delivered to CCC following the
April 30 expiration date, A total of 364 million bushels is reported to
have been put under these programs, of which 231 million were under loan
and 113 under purchase agreements. As a result of large deliveries the
carry-over July 1 probably will be mostly CCC ovned. If free market sup-
plies should be belcw minimum requirements before the new crop becomes
available CCC might sell some of its wheat in the acmestic market. In
December there was an announcement which established a price floor, below
which CCC could not sell. This floor was the lowest of the following:
(1) a price that will reimburse CCC for ts costs; (2) 90 percent of the
parity price; and (3) a price halfway between the support price and parity.


WS-110


- 9 -











WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF REPORTED CASH SALES OF No 2 HARD WINTER WHEAT AT
KANSAS CITY AND REPORTED COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION PURCHASES OF WHEAT
AND FLOUR GRAIN EQUIVALENT. DAILY, JULY 1946-DECEMBER 31. 1948


300

275

250


22'


I = I ji A i,. I Al .- I, lkl,.J1.... ii l ~il. i j ... ii 1 Li6.!, 11.. i.. Iit k ljiii L, J i 1.1. j .j

JULi AuP. SEPT C T'" C'.i E C iAN P MUAA" P .A F, V I.Ni uL, L Au L AL- 'E .: ., uI NO CE TTN Ai M' 'IN A Iif LI AL. 5 1t Pi OC T SPA DEC
194 194I' ) .1
CA -A e '.A i: .-' :i Fl i OLCr I ON AntA, i4i4iKE i. .l1ul i i7 A s' :N


u I DEPARTMENT OF AGR|CuLIuAE




Despite record crops. wheat prices have increased in the past few years because
of the iver large eXport demand, abo e-normal demand within the United States, and a
rise in the general price level. In 19i7-48 wheat prices were strengthened because
corn supplies were too small to provide substantial exports r. addition to feed re-
quirements. Exports of corn and corn products October 1947 to September 1948 totaled
only about 11 million bushels comipared with 131 million bushels a year earlier. wheat
for export has been purchased largely by the Commodity Credit Corporation. while
over half of the flour for export has oeen purchased by the commercial trade.
Among the factors contriouting to price changes since July I. 1946 (numbers
refer to numbers on chart) are the following:
1946-47 Year.- (I) Adjustment of price to 1946 new-crop supplies. (2) Price
effect of record crop offset br large demand; CCC purchases heav:; transportation
inadequate and Supplies in market centers small. (3) Car shortage acute. (4) Coal
cars. made available by coal strike, used to relieve shortage. 15) Terminal sup-
plies small: export demand large: some price bearishness from high winter wheat
forecast; January CCC purchases heavy. (6) Effect of huge export demand On supplies
recognized; export program expanded as winter wheat prospects continued excellent;
CCC purchases insignificant. (7) General reaction to sharp advance: CCC purchases
mostly nominal. a) Good demand for limited remaining supplies. (i) Seasonal decline
to within 6 cents of loan level on July 7: CCC purchases heavy.
i1947-id Year.- (10) Increased buying by mills and elevators in face of limited
market supplies, small corn crop reported July 10. (1|) Market receipts generally
adequate to take care of demand; CCC purchases heavy. (1l) Corn crop prospects con-
tinue poor; Canadian crop deteriorated; Conservation Program interpreted as indicat-
ing urgency of maximum exports; purchases for export July-October seasonally heavy.


.' B


MIs 456f9 8iilua. OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


(13a) Announcement that CCC purchases exceeded July-December quota by 57 million 0
bushels; feed estimate for year reduced. (14) Large export needs reemphasized; low
carry-over feared: CCC purchases mostly small. (15) Carry-over July 1. 1948 set by
law at a min.ium of 150 million bushels: winter wheat report on December 18 higher
than general, expected; with light wheat feeding reported. exports of 4L50 million
bushels still probable: market weak over nol days. (161 Wheat prices reflect
strength in corn; expected increase in marketing beginning of new tax year did not
materialize. (17) Price break of over 55 cents from February 3 through 13 followed
a decline of about 19 cents between January 16 and February 3. Contributing factors
include: (a) Prices had advanced too far in view of the large supply still remain-
ing and the fact that export purchases were largely already made. (b) feeding of
wheat lighter than expected. tc) Market receipts of corr. were much larger and feed
prices continued ver, high inrelation to prices of livestocki and livestock products.
(a) Marked improvement in crop prospects was reported for most importing countries.
kel Weather through January "as favorable for our winter wheat crop. (1i) Conditions
unsettled following the shara price break: reactions to weather reports. (19) Dvwn-
ward adjustment to new crop conditions; April I forecast 3 percent above December I;
CC' purchases -hich started in March. continue large, reaching peak in July.
1946-49 Year.- (201 heavy movement into export relieved tight storage situa-
tion. CCC purct.ases continue heavy: price la cents below loan on August 2. advanced
to 10 cents above loan on November 22. (21) Large winter wheat crop indicated;
late December price level maintained to mid-Januar, at about 3 cents above loan.
(On Februar, 3. associated with sharp declines in other commoditiess, price dipped to
15 cents below an. In loan. In late February price was again above the loan, and in March
fluctuated around that level.


. ;.... .: ...-...:








CAITADIAN 1ffA T PAYMENTS

Initial Pa.ments Increased

The initial price paid to Uestcrn Canadian producers was raised
by 20 cents to. $1.75-per bushel, basis. No. 1 Northern in store at Fort
William, Fort Arthur or Vancouver. Accordin; to an official announce-
ment of February 24, this price affects all wheat delivered from August
1, 1945 through July 1950. In addition, growers will be entitled to
-receive any -. plus which may be in the hands of the Uanadian Wheat
Board after the wheat delivered during the five-year period has been
sold. When the pool was first established, the initial price was set
at $l,35 per bushel. Last Larch the initial prie,- w asraised to W1.55
per bushel effective on all vrheat delivered to the Board between Au-gust
1, 1945 and arch 31, 1948.

During 1948-49 the Board will sell wheat to the United Kingdom,
under the Canada-Unitcd Lingdomr wheat agreement, at ,$2.00 per bushel plus
a carrying charge of 5 cents per bushel. The board also is selling wheat
for domestic purposes at the smms price, Substantial export sales have
been ,made to countries other t.'an the United I L.indoma t prices in excess
of $2.00 per bushel. For the 19,.4-50 iLarketing :'ear, the last of the
five-year pool period, a pricc of p2.0J was agreed to by the United King-
dom.

The Foard estimates that its receipts of wheat from farmers under
the five-year pool will amount to about 1,070 million bushels through
March 31, 1949.

Payments under Assistance Act

Some 52,944 fanners living in areas of the Prairie Prodinces where
wheat yields were unduly low in 1948 will receive more than '12 million
under the provisions of the Prairie Farmers' Assistance Act.
The distribution of payments by provinces is as follows:

Province Paynent No. of recipients

Mlanitoba ..........................$ 43,173 354
Saskatchewan ............... ...... 11,112,671 44,660
Alberta ........................... 1,637,306 7,930
12,793,150 52,944

Payments under the Act fal 1 into two classifications. Where the
average wheat yield in a tomnshi3 is 4 bushels or less per acre, payment
of .'2.50 per acre is made on h-.lf tne clItivated acrea-e, up to a maximum
of $500. Where the wheat yield in a township averages from 4.1 to 8 bus-
hels peracre, payment i.s made at the rate of $1.50 peracre on half the
cultivated acreage up to a maximum of $300.


- 11 -


VS-110






. ....: .
1'


MA.RC-APIIL 1949


- 12 -


Since the inception of the plan in 1939 the total amount
expended has amounted to $102,295,683, including the payments on the
1948 crop. A tax of 1 percent on the value of grain marketed by farmers
provide part of the cost of payments. Up to March 51, 1948, more than
$32,000,000 had been collected under this levy.

FOUR-YEAR INTERNATIONAL WHEAT AGREEMENT NEGOTIATED


A four-year International Wheat Agreement fixing a range of prices
within which 456.3 million bushels of wheat will nove annually in-world trade
was concluded. on .Vaoh 23 by the International Wheat Conference, which had
been meeting in Washington since late January. Subject to ratification
by the Governments concerned, the Agreement will go into force not later
than September 1, 1949.

The International Wheat Agreement, according to its preamble, is
intended "to overcome the serious hardship caused to producers and con-
sumers by burdensome surpluses and critical shortages of wheat." The
Agreement's stated objectives "are to assure supplies of wheat to import-
ing countries and markets for wheat to exporting countries at equitable
and stable prices."

Provided it is approved by the governments concerned, the Agreement
will successfully conclude many'years of effort to establish international
cooperation in the world wheat market. A similar agreement, the first
multilateral agreement of its kind in history, was negotiated in Washington
last year, but was not ratified by a sufficient number of countries to
bring It into force.

Highlights of the Agreement

1. A four-year duration is provided--from August 1, 1949 through
July 31, 1953.

2. Maximum and minimum prices are fixed for en.ch of the four years.
Transactions outside the agreed range of prices will be entirely free, but
they will not count toward fulfillment of the obligations assumed by
signatory countries.

3. So long as governments take the necessary measures to see that
their obligations under the Agreement are carried out, it is open to them
to conduct their trade in whatever manner they wish, by private trade or
through governments.

'4. Delegations from 37 importing nations and 5 exporting nations
will sign the Agreement on March 23 or before the closing date-- April
15, 1949--for signatures. The list includes all importing nations and
all principal exporting nations except Argentina and the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republicb.


I


I
1'


..{.





VWS-110 13 -

5,. A new Internatinnal Vlhcat Council ic formed, c6nsi.-ting of
representatives of all nation.-: hic.h ratify th, n2re, ".nte

6, 9 xportirg countries (Australia, C-irata, Finncc, tho Unitrd
States of An.eri.a, iand Urug ay) guiarnntee to crll 156.Z rmillicn bu-
shels of v'ieat oani'al?'y to sii zatory mport;.ng c.-inbri-;s at -rir-es no
higher Fhan t'io maximuimro

7. Importing coantrics (37 in all)i uarantee to buy 4.56,0 mil-
lion bushels of Their from the sinator:, export.nr onuntrics nnrua'ly
a.: prices no locwr than +he mini.m:um.

8e Theo ;iarantc,."n sales nd guaranteed Lpurchases arc tht same
for erch country for each of thc f'ir years of the Agreer.:rt.

9. Provision is made in thi Agrce.-.n.t for acconodatiun already
existing agrc2mernts covering --heat sc.lc 'n purc}.acss. It is provided
that 'f the e-xforting country '-d tji.- importng c..untry concorn--.d arrec,
a transaction or part of a transacti *n for tle pitrciiasc. and sale of
what. entered ir.tu b.-fore the entry into force of the operating sections
of th4 nuew Agrccr.nt s'iall, irrcsprctive of ;rict, count tcv.rrd the
guaranteed quantities of ticsr'? c.'rntricso

10. "?.Jcat-flciir can to suinstitutcd fc.. -'" .n-t if ar-.:d b',tv'.cn
buyer and sr.ler. ,h Ver : coun-r..rs cannot arrco as to 'he r lati: anr.:nnts
of v'. cat and flour which rheT.y cho ol' -uz.uy or sell, the notttc-r is to be
settled Lu: 'the Counrcil. ...

Price2 .

Thu Agrcn.ment fixes celin., and floor prices r-ctv: en which trans-
actions ar-c to hr concudtcd .Ticn requustca to do so the exporting
country .must sell at the rax:L.im price the quantity it has guara:Ltccd to
deliver. VWhen requested to co so ,he irpbrting country must purcha.n
at the minimum prico th, quantity it has guaranteed t,. buy.

These basic minimum and maximum prices aro:

Crop Year T ini'-uIr I a::inum

August/July 1949/50 $Io0 01.80
1950/51 1:'40 1.80
1951/8.2 I z3 *.... 1.30
1952/53 l.'20 1.30

Basic minimum and maxi.,'m prices aro "fi: per bushols,.at. to...parity for theq Canadian collar ruling on Llarch 1, 1949,
for No. 1 Manitoba Northern ITu. at in bulk in store at Fort !William/Port
Arthure Since the .Canadian dollar nas at par -it+h the U. So dollar on
tLat date, the foregoing prices also represent U. S. currency per bushel.





TAIJrH-APPTL 1949


To administer ti}- provisil.n of lhi. article on prices, a standing '
Advisory Comriit'tco on Pri-e .,quiva?.ents is established, consisting of
repr.senitativi.s of 3 exporting countrir.s and of 3 importing cointrics.
This Comimttt,., 'vill advise the Council and the E-xecutive Couiittero in
the matter of equi'ralu'nt prices ,h -ich .ill operate for -dIoats of othrr
grales and at vari.-us markets in each cxpcrting, country Transactions
in -.+-eat flour under the Agreement will take place at prics consistent
vr. th the. prict-s fixed for what.

Any country is free to buy Lr sell any additional -iheat front' or
to any country it desires a.nd at any price it desires. Furt!. :moirc., undcr
T.he Agrcement, exporters have no obligation to sell :*.ica unl-ss buyors
offer the coiling price, and import..rs have no obligation to buy '.-rhat
unless cxportL.rs offor it at the floor prico,

The signatory governments oxpressl:y r-scsrve to themselves cor.;plcto
liberty of action in the dLtcrrminat.Lon and. administration o0" their
domostio agricul+ur .l and price policies, but they v:ill unduavor ho
operate those policies in such a v.~.y as not to imp,'de thtw fr.:o movci-ent
of prices of thcat in international trado b.otv:ccn the maximum pri o and
the minimum price.


Table le. Illustration of op-rati-n of pri'-.1 formula on basis of freight
and exchange r..tcs as of i..d-:'arch 194, I1/

restinmati n
: Vics t.rn India,
Exporter 7uro.o : C -on_- e-11 C 4r:"
:a~::imum r [il .,ur .. Haxi Q ,,um :.inij:'um; 'In .xinmun" ." minimum
: (Ccntz Lr i'us;icl)



No, 1 Hard W.intor f.oOb. :
Gulf ports .......... 101 101 192 iCi 1973/41 1C.1
No* 1 Hard VWintr'toob. :
Atlantio ports :.... : 196 Z/4 166 3/4 194 1663,/4 197 G3/4
Hi. 1 Soft VWhite/ro. 1 :
Hird f7inter f.,bo.,
Facifio ports ***.****e : 1'0 1415/p lo' 11/8 13o0 !.415/8
Noo 1I Hard .intcr in
store at Kansas City ,a : 1C7 137 16 137 1733'' 137


I/ Illustration does not provide aU allovr-nce for quality discounts 's may
be mutually agreed upon b. tlh.c -rtic.. coneo-rnr.d. The ?minimum prices shown
are based on the basic minimum .rico for th'. first year of lhe Agreemcnt.
For the ronaining y6ar,s 'h., minimum price would d decline 10 cnots per bushel
each suceeding year.


- 14 -





NSE -110


The equivalent price prevailing at a particular time or shipping
point for any description of ih.at vill be subject, of course, to trans-
portation and oxohange rates prevailing at .that tirn. It 1will also be
subject to such allowance for diffcrrnc.s in quality as may be mutually
agreed by the importing and-exporting partic-s concerned. It is difficult,
therefore, to translate the basic maximum prices to an equivalent basic
price for heat in the United States. The fo:egoing example, however,
will illustrate how the price formula would opra-e as of ihc day it was
computed. "It is emphasized that the oxamplo does not attempt to forecast
price equivalents for the duration of the Agrr.cmcnt. It does no more
than illustrate the formula on T-he basis, of. freight and exchange rates
ruling in midai-ach 1949,

Quantities .. ..

The participating exporting countries, together with their guaran-
teod sales aro shove. in table 2, and the participating importing
countries, together with their guaranteed purchases arc shown in table 3.

Oth.'r Provisions

The aaninistrativ. provisions of the A~grLzmcnt go into effect on
July 1, 1949# provided that thu gov.:rnments of importing countries re-
sponsiblo -for not loss than 70 percent of the guar.ant.od puirchascs and
thc governments of exporting countries responsible for not 1.,ss than
80 percent of the guaranteed sales have ratified the Agremenrt by that
date. The Council is to fix a date which shall not be later than
-Septcmb.r 1, 1949, on "rhich the operating sections of the A-roomnAt shall
untcr into force between those go-.'crnments which have accepted it.

This arrangement is made so as to allow the new international
Tiheat Council created under the Agreement to moot early in July and work
- out administrative procedures preparatory to tho Agreementts -becoming
fully effective.

The Government of the United States of Amxarica wil-l conv'dno in
the United Statch tho first meeting of the newly crcated- Council -carly
in July At that m.ceetipg the Council will select its dffi'etr's and.
temporary seat, The pprpnan.ent scat will be fixed in consultation with
the appropriate organ.s. ?ad agencies of the United Uations.*....

Each country which ratifies the Agrcoment will hold membership on
the new Council, and may appoint one delegate and one alternate, to-
gether with any number of. advisors desired The Food and-Agriculture
Organization, the Internati-nal Trae' -Organization, the-'Interim Coordi-
nating Co6mmittue for International Commodity Arrangcmonts, and such
other inter-govcrnmontal organizations as the Council may doctdq, are
coach entitled to have one nonvoting representative at meetings'of the
Council. .


- 15.-





MARCH-APRIL 1949


- 16 -


Table 2.- Guaranteed wheat sales by exporting countries un
Wheat Agreement, annual quantity for eac
of 4 years beginning August 191,9


Year beginning
July 31


Quanti
per ye


- Thousand b


der International .
h



ty
ar

ushels I/


Australia .......................:
Canada .........................:
Fran.e .........*..*........*o.6Seg.:
United States .....................:
Unuguay .................,.......:

TOTAL (5 countries) ..............:


80,000
203,069
3,307
168,070
1.837

A56,283


1/ Unless the Council decides otherwise, 72 metric tons of wheat-flour
shall be deemed equivalent to 100 metric tons of wheat for the purpose
of relating quantities of wheat-flour to the quantities of wheat specified.

Table 3.- Guaranteed wheat purchases by importing countries under International
Wheat Agreement, annual quantity for each
of 4 years beginning August 1969


Year beginning
August


Austria .........:
Belgium ........
Bolivia .....,.. :
Brazil ........:
Ceylon .........:
China ..........:
Colombia .......
Cuba ............:
Denmark .........:
Dominican
Republic .....:
Ecuador .........:
Egyrpt .........:
El Salvador .....:
Greece .....o...:
Guatemala .......:
India .......... .:
Ireland .........:
Israel ..........:
Italy ..........Z:


Quantity
per year


Thousand bushels :
11,023
20,209
2,756
13,228
2,939
7,349 ::
735
7,622
1,617

735
1,102
6,981
LOL ::
15,726
367
38,287 ::
10,10)5 ::
3,676 ::
40,418 ::


Year beginning
August


Lebanon ......a,.:
Liberia ........ .:
Mexico 0...,o..6.:
Netherlands .....:
New Zealand .....:
Nicaragua ...s.ee:
Norway ..........:
Panama ..,...,...:
Paraguay .,......:
Peru ......o..,..:
Philippines ..... :
Portugal ........:
Saudi Arabia .... :
Sweden ..........:
Switzerland .....:
Union of
South Africa ..:
United Kingdom ..:
Venezuela .......:
TOTAL
(37 countries)..:


Th


Quantity


per year

ousand bushels
2,388
37
6,246
25,721
4,593
294
7,716 .;
625 .
2,205 |
7,39
7,202
46,09
1,837
2,756
6,430

11,023
177,068
3.307

456,283


Tn





- 17 -


Table 4 .- Bheat: Supply and iAstribution in continental
United States, 1930-4'

Supply D_ Tstribution : Ex-
Year : : : Domestic disappearance : r-rts
,begin-:Stocks: : Im- : : Pro- : In- : in-
ning :July 1: New :ports: Total : ceased : : :dustri-: cloud nc
July : : crop : 2/ :Supply : for : Feed : Seed: al : Total chap-
: : : : food : : use : mo.nts

*: Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. 11M M1i. 1:.. Ml
: bu. u. bu. bu. b bu b b bu, bui bu. ii.,

1930 : 291.1 886.5 o0. 1,178.0 489.6 179.5 81,1 --- 7T 2 115.3
1931 : 312.5 941.5 s/ 1,254.0 482.8 190,2 ,0 1 -- 73.1 _-1.6
1932 : 375.3 756.3 5/ 1,131.6 492.4 142.7 "3.8 1dJ.9 34,9
1933 : 377.8 552.2 0.1 930.1 4L8, 102.3 78.1 8/ r2i,.i 28.h
193 : 272.9 526.1 15.5 814.5 4'9.1 113.4 82.7 0.l 6.1,: 13.3
1935 145.9 6238,2 34.6 808.7 472,o 101.0 87.5 0 1 61i.2 7.1
1936 : 14o.4 629.9 34.5 804,8 877.9 11-.8 15.9 o.1 `P9.7 12.3
1937 : 83.2 873.9 0,. 957.7 474,6 153 5 93 1 '' 701-2 103.4
1938 : 1)3.1 91),'? 0.3 1,073.3 481,4 1.:,1 74.2 0.1 713,. 109.5
1939 : 250.0 741.2 0.3 991.5 475. -4 1 72.9 0.1 '"3.5 48.3
1940 : 279.7 814.6 3,5 1,097.3 478.5 123.1 7;',3 0.1 6.6.L 37.1
1941 : 384.7 942.0 3.7 1,330>. 4,7,3 116.3 62,5 1.6 i8.2 51.4
1942 : 630.8 969.4 1.0 1,601.2 536.5 291.0 65.5 54.3 94b.6 34.5
1943 : 618.9 843 8 135.0 1,598.7 543.1 b4E 1 77.3 107,5 1,216.n 66.1
1944 : 316.o 1,060.1 42.0 1,418.7 530.O 2..-, 83,4 82.3 k-. .7 152.8
19456/: 279.2'1,108.2 2.0 1,339,9 6/ 437.4 3,' 3. 92,0 21.. c.94.2 6/ 395.1
1946 : 100.1 1,153.0 :j 1,253.1 4)1. 190, "4r., .. "('- 400.7
1947 : 83.8 1,367.2 / 1,41.0 491.9 l31.6 s91.' I 0. 75.( 49?.95
L9487/: 195.9'

1/ 1930-36, Inclusive, same new wheat included in co.nmercial stocks and merchant
mills stocks;' beginning with 1937 only old cronp heat is shown in all SL'cIcC
positions. The figure for July 1, 1937, includ-ng the new what JE 10?. million
bushels, vhich is used as year-end carry-over in the l9j6-37 mark?tinc year,
2/ Imports cover all wheat and flour, except wheat imported for mIlling in teond is
excluded.
SIncludes food for both civilian population and the military force's.
Includes flour made only from domestic wheat and shipments 'to U. S. territories
*Be1ginning with 1940 includes military exports for relief and axrorts by The
Department of Agriculture.
Less than 50,0C00 bushels.
6 Exports July 1, 1945 to date xavised to include semolina, and macaroni and
related products, thereby reducing the quantity shown for domestic food, Total
exports and food use are not adjusted for somolina. end nacarcni exports prior to
July 1, 1945. These exports for the amar::et:ng years beginning July 1, 1936, in ,
million bushels, were as follows: 0.1, C.1, 0,2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 3.9, 1,4, and
.2.6 in 1944-45.
7/ Preliminary.






!APCB-APRIL 19-49


Table .- All wheat and all srriig .'heat: Acreare, v'.elj, an- production,
United States, 1319-49


Al wh-ieat


jr ede.d
acreage


!l,.'O acres


Ave r'i :e
19':'23-55:
1A,, : e


121 :

102.52
1924 5
1: 25
1927 :
1923 :
I??


67,293

77,440:

6'9,9397
,07 3l3
"7, 113
64,.93
55,70C
61,75
2,71 .


67,177


Yild


: Production


Pushels 1,000 bushels


11.3

1". 5

12.4
V.L


1 .L

1. 9
i .1

13.7
15.
1-.9


702,153



'4.5,277
316,964

75.:, %,
4, 17
'53,7-


;4 1


Seeded
acreage


1,0CO acres


22, ;50

-6,043

22,472P
-",202
13,743
1 1'2
17,068
rO, 71.

2l^0"71
?^ ,C'?1


1930 67,5 9 15.1 9.46,.22 C2,311 11.3
1931 : 63,433 14.2 341,540 20,.-4? 5.7
1932 : 6 2-31 .1.4 756,307 Z-',F3 1.
195: 6:d-,0Cv ,.0 552,21 2,, .)7 7.2 ,
123- : 64,064 9.2 5?6,0 ? lE.,7:' 4.5
1935 : '',811 .3.0 6.9,2'27 ..... 7.
193 : 73,970 8._ -329, ,:0 .3,9-4 4.4
193" '_.0,814 10'. A 373,914 .22, 9 .1
19353 70,931 a].F 91]',?16 2,. Fl 7 10.4
1939 6-?3, 02 11.9 741,:'10 19,6489 D,5

1940 31,320 13.2 314, 1P,; 34 12.1l
194 62,707 15.0 '041,70 16,69P: I'-
1?4P : 53,000 18.3 9H9.681 4I,145 1P.9
1943 : 55,934 15.1 84S,-15 17,469 17.5
1944 : 66,110 16.0 1,0 1, 11. 1' ,369 1..9
1945 : 6'9,130 1.0 1,108.C-41 i ,, ?15 15.5
149 T : 73 ,536 1 1i 1,1,?,046 ),541 14..
]9.-' : 78,169 17.: 1,J ,19 ,.1,056 14.9
1943 : 77,749 16.-. 1,: ,4, I> 5' 1.if.?
1949 1/: 81,670 163.0 1, I2,000 (_;.20,t".6 1.3
1/ Figures for acrcaci-e co:,nsi.;t o" the Dccrm., r 1 '43 A'in.? estimate
194' scoring prospective plant;n r.; thoe for prcducti-'n consist of
'inter evtim.3tc an-' an ass .mpnrjtion o1' viels nr su.rin what equal
avera c'.


.=2,715
116, 22"5
24 ,"'96
17: ,'0?2
37,363
1*", 315
luc ,277
15,540
54, 755
175, -33


221, 837
268, :43 3
267,222
306,337
303,910
290,330
282, 21
939,138
213 .00 3
C290,000)


and the March
tho April 1949
to the 1358-47


of
har.-e it


%.A

i:


Spring ,uhrat


Yicld n *_'d.. i. -'.n

Pushels ,"' rr hei 1;


9.2 203, a 956

7.-i 23,-36" 7

10,." 230,0 ,:
'I.7 '16,171
13. 27.', 190
10.7 204,183
1].7 8,054 i
33.0 .20,011 I
SC.0 200-),606
] b.2 5.,n 71
14.8 53E',5307
1':.3 237,12e


- 18 -





WS-J10.


- 19 -


Table 6.- Spring Wheat; Seeded acreage by arcas, nv-ragc 1938-47, annual 1947-49


L.---------- ------ -- ------


Area


- -


:Average- :
:1938-4' :
S1,j000


: 1949


1947 1948 prospec-
197 19 : tive
:_ __ : lan-itings
1,000 1,000 1,000


: acres acr,-s acres


Spring wheat other than durum
ont.,It.D1,, S.D., and Minn..
Wash., Orcg., and Idaho
Colo., Nebr., and .iyo.
All othur Stat'es
Total
Durum wheat 1/
SqTbtal, all spring


:13,567
: 1,416
444
: 214
:15,641
: ',.77
13,31Q


15,190
1,378
230
205
17,061
2-975
20,03 6


1/ Figures for duriur r-.pres.nt thrc,.


State-;s only--iinn.msota, Ilorth Dakota, and


South Dakota, Durum production i-n -ther states is unimportant and figures
ar. included with "other s-..rine" virn-at,


Table 7.- Lurum and othur spring wlcat: Sccdc. acr-a .-., yield per acre,
and production 1939-49 1/
u~ m 2 "_ 0 -j: ^11' ?
: _Durum. 2Z : ot h r ring ..
Year:
Acreage : Yield : Production" Acreagc : Yield Production
-~ -- -,0 -- -- -- --- -Qu -- --- --- -[QQ
: 1, 000 1 000 1, 000 1,000
: acres Bu shels bushels acres Bushel1s bushels


3,128
3,371
2,593
2,155
2,136
2,099
2,026
2,493
2,975
3,245
3,392


10.4
9.6
15.6
19.1
15.7
14.1
16,2
14,4
14,9
13.8


32, 486
32,294
40,653
41,236
33,505
29, O66
32,840
35,836
44,328
44,7422


13,520
14,0613

11,990
15,333
17, 270
16,689
16,848
17,061
16,343
16,908


10.'
12.7
16.2
13.8
17.8
16.1
15.4
14.6
14.9
15.5


143,052
1 ", 543
227,585
225p986
272,832
273,544
257,5.50
246,485
254,810
253,5 s66


1/ Data for 1929-38 in The Uih.at Situation, harch-April 1'-43, page 11.
2/ Figures for durun represent thrc- Stat-.. only-4 inncsota, i:orth Dakota,,
and South Dakota. Duran production in othe-r States is unimportant and figures
are included.vwith :other spring."


: 1949 as
: pcrcen-
: tage of
_:_ 1943 _

Pe-rcent

104.6
78.6
98.0
91.1
103.5
104.5
103.6


14,555
1,252
21'Q
237
16,343
3,245
19,588


acrcs'

15,415
984
293
21o

3,392
20,300


1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1943
1949





(1.- CiH-A _-'RiL 1949


Table 8.-.Wheat Acreage seeded, by regions, United States, 1919 48


: Hard winter : Spring wheat : Soft winter :
: wheat re on& -_ .region 2/_ -: wheat reason /.1
: 1.000 acres 1,000 acres .i000 acres


Average
1929-33

1919

1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939


27,636

24,727

: 22,066
: 23,830
: 25,478
23,910
20,177
: 22,893
: 23,935
: 26,537
: 2,204
27,234

: 28,327
: 28,434,
: 27,109
27,078
: 26,615
: 28,14
: 29,931
: 34,933
: 35,356
: 28,028


20,416

21,706

19,905
20,426
18,065
17,533
16,006
18,295
18,056
19,487
21,130
20,687

19,959
19,116
20,783
21,525
17,718
20,605
21,806
20,086
20,904
15,929


Pacific Northwes
_ region _A-_
InOsO acres

5,202

4,774


10,568

20,660

17,106
15,481
15,404
15,439
12,414
11,945
11,26,,
11,681
14,498
10,623

10,609
10,787
10,065
10,755
11,745
12,608
13,042
15,733
13,620
11,392


1940 26,112 17,248 10,658 4,171
1941 27,508 16,762 10,736 4,12.9
1942 23,280 14,737 8,339 3,502
193 : 23,525 17.083 8,238 4,205
1944 28,961 19,193 9,905 4,602
1945 31,863 18,616 10,353 4,793
1946 33,695 20,037 9,076 5,128
1947 37,274 20,648 10,436 5,314
198 / : 36,016 19,865 11,618 5,455
1949 / : 38,821 20,817 11,914 5,421
17 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska and Colorado
/ North Dakota, Montar.a, South Dakcta and Minnesota.
2/ Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia,
Kentucky, Tennessee, Maryland, South Carolina, Georgia, and West Virginia.
/ Washington, Oregon and Idaho.
/ Preliminary.
December 1948 winter estimate and March 1949 spring prospective plantings.



*^
:, '.


4,817
4,288
4,268
3,974
3,958
5,436
4,256
4,612
4,699
5,186

5,361
4,662
4,853
5,946
4,293
4,365
5,117
5,349
4,805
3,941


- 20 -







Table .-Destination of United States exports of wheat and flour j/,
average for 2 years beginning July 1, 1937, and annual
beginning July 1, 1946 and 1947, and six months .for 1948

.:1937 aS :
; 1938 :1946- 47, 1947-48 July-December 1948

Destination Wheat : Wheat : : Wheat : : : Wheat


and : and : Wheat : Flour : and : Wheat : Flour : and
flour ; flour : : : flour : : : flour
;Million Iillion Millioi; Mil] ion M-llion Million Million Million
bushels buLbhels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


Austria *........,, :
Belgium and


--- 11.8 13.8


Luxembour6g. ....; 12.8 15.4
'Denmark ......... :
France and French. -
North Africa...-.,: .8 12.4
Germany ........... 2.0 80.9
Greece .. ... .... 1.4 10.3
Iceland ..........: -- -
Ireland ..... ......2 --- 2,2
Italy ...........: l.n 35.4
Netherlands .* .,.... 15.8 18.6
.Norway ........ ..... .6 5.8
Portugal ............ --- 5.3
Sweden ....,,....... -- .3
Switzerland .......g-: --- 6.1
.Turkey ............. -- -
United Kingdom ..... 2/35.6 30.7
Total ECA
Participahlts .,. '0.0 2?-5.2

Spain ....;........ --- ---
U.S.S.R. .......... ..: -- --
Other Europe .4...... __ 04, 17.1
Total Other Europe: l.j 171
Total Europe ...: 71.0 252c3


8.7
.7


40.9
92.o
14,3


7.0


20.8


3.0. 11,7
.2 .9


18.9
46,2
8.5


.1
2.1 .0
35.6 14.1
16,7 7,5
.2.4 1.5
4.6 2.0
1.', .4-
'3.4 1.5
.3
2.7 .7


59.8
138,8
22,8
.1
4.1
49.7
24.2
3.9
6.6
2.1
4.9
.3


3.4 --


9.3

.7.4


4.
72.1
7.7

1.2
18. 4
10.8
3.7
5.2

4.4


2.3 11.6


7.4


-9 4.9
7.8 79.9
3.8 11.5

.4 1.6
6.6 25.0
4.4 15.2
1.4 5.1
.7 5.9
.1 .1
--- 4.4


240.5 113.6 354.1 .1.4.2 28.4 172.6


2.1 Ll
2.1 4.1
2L2.6 117.7


... --- ---- ---
6.2 .3 .5 .8
6.2 .3 .5 .8
360,3 144.5 28.9 173.4


Philippines ........: 4.0 7.1
China ....... ......,: 6. 5.6
India .............. --- 21.4
Japan, Korea, Ryukyu. --- 36.1
Thailand and Burma..: -; --
Other Far East .....: 3/--- 8.8
Total Far East....: 10.0 79.0


4.7
1,7 2.3
10.8 4.3
35.1 10.2

-.. 6.0
07.6 27.5


4.7 ---
4,0 1.0
15.1 11.1
45.3 17.5

6.0 ---
75.1 29.6


4.8 4.8
2.4 3.4
1,8 12.9
12.3 29.9

2.2 2.2
23.5 53.2


Canada ......8.... : -- -- .8 --- ,8 -- --
Latin American
Republics ........: 9.6 46.8 11,9 21.6 33.5 7.9 21.0 28.9
:Other Areas ........: 9.6 16.6 1.8 8,0 9.8 7.0 7.6 14.6
Total World ...... : 103.2 394.7 304.7 174.8 479.5 189.0 81.0 270.0
In grain equivalent, wholly of United States wheat. 2/ Ireland included.
Included in other areas.
Er f


WS-110


- 21 -









LAF.CH7I-AFRIL 1949 -. 22

Table 10.- '.7.cat: "Woghtccd. av rage cash prico, specified markets .
a.i'd dftes 194c3-49


:All classes : Ilo, 2 io. 1 : 11o 2 1Io, 2 1 No. 1
tonth -and grades : ark rk Hard Rod s oft
and a six : and Hard N. Spring :_ .bor Durum. inter t hn./at
date m arkots Winter "
date arkot :Kansas Citcr .inncapolisHirmnacapolis: St. Louis:.Portland / 1
S:Kansas City. 1 9 1 '

; 1948" 1949 :1948 ;1949 ;.948 -1949 : 1948-1949 : 1948' 19^.9 1948'1049 i.


Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol, Dol, Dol.


345
2.68
2.61


2.91
2.60
2.58
2,57

2.67'
2.56
2,63
2.56


2.27
2,27
2.85
2,28


2.25
2,17
2.24
2.29

2.30
2:29
2.27
2,27


3.03
2951
2.45


2.82
2,41

2.43
2,55
2.43
2.48
1.38


2,25
2,20
2.24


2.22
2.14
2.20
2.26

2.27
2.25
2.23
2,23


3.20
2.77
2.67


2.94
2.5
L266
'.66

2.78
2.63
2.71
2.55


2.35

2.35


, ". -7
2.28

2.37


2,36
2,36
2. 34


Dol. Dol, Dol. Dol.


3.19
2,84
2,94


2.99
2.'7
2.75
2,80

2.98
2.93
2. 95
2.84 -


2,35
2.35
2, 30


2.35
2.26
2.32
2.40

2..59
2,32
2,27
2.28


3.12
2.87
2.54


2.94


2,48

2.60
2.50

2,52


2.29
2.29
2.33


2.29
2.23

2,3]


2.38

2,28


Apr, 2 : 2.62 2.28 2o44 2.25 2,65 2.3.5 3.04 2.34 2.59
9 : 62 2..0 2.46 2.27 2.67 2.35 3.11 2.31 2,56


--- 2.39 2.21
2.36 2.41 2,21


./ Avcrago of daily cash quotations.


* "
*.. ,. :.:: ?


Dol. Dol,


Jane'
Fob,
LMar.


Fob, 5
12
19
26

U ar.. 5
12
19
26


2,85
2-33
2.36


2.58
2.15
2.22
2.34

?.41
2.30
2,34
2.35


2.21
2.17
2.24


2.15
2.12
2.19
2.22

2.26
2.25
?.23
?.22




- o110 23 -

Thble 11.-Whcat: Average closing prices of May wheat futures,
specified markets and da.t. -, 19.1-4')

: Chicagg : Kansas cit : Minneapolis


Period *
Pcrod o 1948 1949
: Dollars Dollars.


2.96
2.47
2.40


2.71
.2,42.
2.36
2.37
2.46
.,37
2,37
:2.40
2.44
2.47


2.24
2.15
2.16


2.18
2.11
2,16
2,17
2.18
2.16
2.15
2,1 .
2,15
2.17


January
February
larch


Week ended :
February 5
*. 12 :
19 :
26
.., I1arch 5
12
19 :
26 t
April 2
9


S 1948 :
: Dollars


2.85
2.36
2,29


2.60
2.30
2.26
2.27
2.35

2.26
2-28
2.3)
23 36


1049
Dollars

2.12 :
2.03
2,03


2.05
1.99
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.03
2,02
2.01
2,02
2.03


1948
Dollars

2.92
2.44
2.38


.2.67
2,39
2.34
2.34
2.43
2.33
.2.35
2.38
2,442
2.46


Table 12. -. h.--.t: -.'ric -. s 'LI"
*Fridly nearc:t
... kly Jan.:-


..iEihel in threC e exporting countries,
:aiid-nonth, Jan. iTar.
or. 1949


- -: HARD "'T!PAT
: Unitcd States : Canada


Da. w
(Friday)


: No, 1
: Dark
:Northern Spring


: 13 ocrcant :
: protein at- :
: Duluth i/ :
: Dollars
Frmdvy mid-.onth :
*January 14 : 2.30
February 11 2.24
17arch 11 : 2.33

Weekly


:


Io,. 2
FIanitoba
at
Fort Liilliam.


rollars-

2.32
2,18
2.16


HARD ,'HFAT_ _SOFT WH
United States:United :
:States :


No, 1
Dark
VUinter
Galve ston
1/


: No. 1 :
:Portland:Australi:
: i/ : I/


Dollars Dollare Dollara


2.44
2.35
2.42


2.225
2.16
2.235


3/ 2.50


January 7 : 2.31 2,34 2.40 2.21 --
January 21 2.29 2.27 2.42 2.22 --
January 28 2.29 2,22 2.375 2.16 3/ 2.50
February 4 : 2,27 2.22 2.39 2.15 J/ 2.50
18 : 2.32 2,20 2.37 2.19 --
25 2.35 2,30 2.475 2.25 ---
March 4 2.33 2.27 2.485 2.265
18 : 2.34 2,19 2.465 2,235 ---
25 : 2.31 2.18 2.43 2.22
April 1 2.35 2.20 2445 2.20
^ 8 : 2,37 2.18 2,46 2.20 ---
1.7 F,0.B spouto arrive,.- Fort william quotation is in store. 3/2.50 for
: *Btia ower countries 2.66


: 1949
Dollars


2.17
2.08
2.10


2.10
2.03
2.09
2.10
2.11
2.10
2.10
2.09
2.11
2.11


EAT




MARCH-APRIL 1949 24 : .

THE PrIPE SITUATIOTI

BACKGHJ'C'IDc- Th.. riiec acruagc in 'J.e United States 1o4"
in 1944,148 averaged 1,611 thlu and, vhich is 60 percent
above the 1975-39 average of 1,007 thousand, Production
in the United States was increased vhen Oriental trade
in rice .as cut off by the :'.ar, This trade has not yet
b,':n restored, and was only about 30 percent of prewar
in 1948, Considered from "hc standpoint of supply, the .
inrrcase in Unite.cd Statc.s acreage is not significant in '
relation to the total world supply, since the United '
States produces only about 1 percent of the total. How..
cv-r, from tho standpoint of trado, Unitecd Sttos rico
exports in 1948 were 11 percent of the total compared
vitlh 1 pcrcentin 1934-38, This is the result of a 6-fold
incr.ase- in'United States export. and a sharp drcp in
v.'orld trado.

Rico Prices above Loan but
below Those for 1947 Crop

Rice pric' s t.. growers 'ior the 1948 erop have. born aoove the loan
but arc below the all-timo hith luvcl for the.- 1947 cror. (tables 14 and 15).
This is the first y,-ar in vh Lch grovr'.rs have availed them -.lves of thu
loan program, By Janvary 31, th-': t-rmnination date for placing loans,
348 thousand 100-pound bags had bt.cn put under loan. A part of these has
already bccn redeemend and sold in the raarkut, and it is expected that
littL., if any, w-ill oc delivered en (CC, In addition to the loans,
growers put 3,565 thousand bags under purchase agrrcmcnts. With export
doiand prospects less favorable, prices for the 1949 crop mnay be somewhat
lo":er than for thu 194S crop.

United States Rico Produetion
in 1948 an All-Timo accord;
Exports Continue Larc

United States suppliLS of rice, in tirns of nillc:.d. in 1948-49
total 24,120 thousand 100-pound bags, an all-tinj record. Stocks at the
beginning of the year wcro equivalent to only 260 thousand bags, but the
crop vas 23,860 thousand bags, :/ exceeding the previous record of
22,990 thousvnd bags in 1947. Civilian 2ood use from +hu 1948 crop is
expected to be about the same as thc 7,070 thousand bags in the preceding
yearn This amounted to 4.9 pounds per capital, compared v.th 5.6 pounds
in the 1935-39 period, Seed and f..cd use w-/ill be about the sane as tho
1,370 thousand bags used from the 1W47 crop, twhilo brewrs iAll use

4/ F'iuros in terms of rough rico as woll as milled rice for a series of
years arc shown in table 13






YJ -110


- 25 -


substantially l,.s- bro'-on rico 5/ than the 2,030 thousand bags uscd in
1947-48, Shipments to United States territories ar-. expcteca to continue
at about 3,210 thousand bags. ;R:ports will continue at a high levcl for
tho rest of the marketing year, but thoro is a likelihood that the year-
end carry-ovcr from the 1948 crop will bo larger than the honinal" amounts
of recent yoarb,.

United States Rico Acreageo Muintainrd
at cNar l'ecord Lovol; Production .in
1949 May be Slightly beloyv 1948

The prospective acreage of rico is estimated at 1,753,000 acres
this year, or slightly erm-illor than the 1948 record plantings of
1,757,000 .crc.s (table 17), If thoco prospects arc realized, the doclino
in planted acreau.e would be the first since 1944, Plantings in the
southern'rice ar-a are indicated to be about 2 percent below thoso of a
yoar ago, while th-os.j in Cal-fornit are indicated at 10 percent abovo last
yoar, California plantings in IEv48 wiro limited by a shortage of irri-
gation "nat'r. Had hhc same acr-.a o beon seeded as in 1947, this year's
increase :,oI'ld have b.cn only 5 pccccnt in that State., If tho intended
plantings r.-. i ziio and ,i'clds -.or acre equal the 1943-47 average, this
year's rico pro.luction -.ill amount to about 79 million bushels, or about
. million l.ushcls below last year's record.crop.

Vforid .aico Production nbh.ut :,amn az
Prewar; Exporc Fbl c SiCoplic' C'c.lr
About Half 76,

Th. v-orld ricc harvest for ALugust 1-18 to July 1949 is ostirratcd as
the largest sncc the rTar, a'2mst 6 ip-,rccnt above that of the preceding
year a'id about the same as t.c 19.5-39 avcrageo .Vorld production approxi-
mates 117.7 million short tons in t.rms of milled rice (7,470 million
bushels of rough rico) compared -ith llo12 million tons (7,060 million
bushels) in 1947.-4S

Supplies for cxpprt in 1l49 arc estimated to be only a little larger
than the 4 million tons for 1948 (table 16), They aro only about one-half
of the prrcm.r c:.p-rts of 8,7 million tons, whichh included shipments from
Fornosa to China, The slight incrcaso in ceportable supplies over last
ycEr is due +.to larger production in the exporting countries of Asia,
primarily Siam, and unexpected larg-r stocks carried ov-r fron the pre-
coding year, Actual exports during 19C4 depcnd to some extent. on the
political situation, particularly in Burma*

5/ Other than thec class called brxewcrs rico.
6/ Adaptc '-omn "Jorld ice export supplicrr increase", published as Foreign
Agricultural Jircular, Office of Forcign Agricultural Rolations, United
States Dopartment of Agricultiure, FR 1.-49, February 7, 1949






MARCH..APRIL 1949


Supplies for export in North America and Europe may slightly exceed
1948 shipments. Those in South American countries, however, are sharply
below last year. Deliveries from Fgypt are expected to surpass the
1948 record.

Siam Now the Primary Scurce of Rice

Siam, formerly the world's third most important exporter, is expected
to rank first in 1919. The 1948 acreage was 90 percent of the prewar
average and the cr:p was the largest since 1932. Taking Into account
larger domestic requirements because of the increase in population, the
surplus for export is estimated at 1,375 thousand tons, or 88 percent of
prewar exports. This compares with the shipment of about 8"50 thousand tons
in 1948, the largest since the war, and wjth 423 thousand tons in 1947

Before the war, Burma was the most important exporter of rice,
shipping more than one-third of the wozid exports. Until August 194 that
country showed the greatest promise for recovery toward prewar production
and trade. Acreage had increased steadily, and yields per acre were good,
with the result that about 1,6%0 thousand tons were reported available
for export in 1948. Since August of last year, however, political distur-
bances have restricted transportation and held up movement to ports. Stocks
have sccumuilated in the interior of the country. The amount exported
during 1 '8, therefore, was reduced to approximately 1,350 thousand tons,
300 thor -nd tons below the quantity previously reported to be available
for del, ,ry. Burma's 1948-49 crop may be around 15 percent below that of
the pre--, :-s ',ear. Even if order is restored in Burma, actual exports,
including some reserve stocks held in the interior, are not expected to
reach the .948 level of 1,350 thousand tons, which was 4l percent of the
prewar average

Political unrest in French Indo-China has rotardod recover:,- of
rice production and trade since the end of the war. The 19483 exports are
estimated at 201'- thousand tons, well above the 75 thousand tons exported
in 1947, but only 12 percent of prewar. A typhoon in September reduced
yields. As a result, total exports from Indo-China in 1949 may not exceed
those in 1948 unless the political situation improves,

Mexico, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are proJucinC large crops, and
export supplies from that region may approximate 5` thousand tons, the
largest on record. Production in the Dominican Republic was considerably
larger than the drought-reduced crop of 1947, and some rice may be available
for export. Haitian production also was reduced by dry weather. As a
result, a scarcity may exist instead of the relatively small export surplus
which is usually available from the country.


- 26 -


.3 :.





WS-1lO 27 -

Egypt produced a near-record crop. Since not as much will be
substituted for wheat flour as in 1948, when bread grains were short,
export supplies are estimated at about the same as in 1948, when a
record 330 thousand tons were shipped abroad. Madagascar's production
has declined in recent years. Because of political conditions, that
country is now importing rather than exporting rice.

I The 1948 crop in Italy was not quite so large as that produced
in 1947. Exports in 1948 are estimated at 50 thousand tons. They
should increase in 1949. Iran produced a large crop, at least 45 thous-
and tons of which are expected to be exported. Reduced production
restricted exports to only 17 thousand tons in 1948, compared with
average exports of around 65 thousand tons. The major part of the
Iran's supply usually is exported to the U.S.S.R. Australia's
' production is estimated at 45 thousand tons, and exports may again
approximate 20 thousand tons.

Rice production statistics are not yet available for most South
American countries since the harvest of the main crop will not be
completed until July. Indications are that the output will be above
. last year. The crop in Brazil is estimated at 1,609 thousand short
tons of which about 100 thousand short tons may be available for
export.

Malor Part of Increase in
World's Production Occurred
in Importing Countries

The major part of the 1948-49 increase in world production
occurred in the importing countries of Asia. Weather generally was
favorable for rice production, especially in Japan, Korea, and the
Philippines. Larger crops also are being produced in China, India,
Formosa, and Ceylon.

The countries having the greatest need for rice are those which
had the largest imports before the war--Japan, India, Malaya, China,
and the Netherlands Indies. Production in these.. countries, with the
exception of India and Pakistan, is not yet up to prewar levels.
Population increases in some countries, particularly in Japan, also
pose the problem of increased needs.















I'






Table 13.- Bice: Supply and distribution, milled and rough-equivalent basis (excluding brewerss,
Continental United States, 31934.-L


Tal )oRc:Spply distra tonpilepn rofj-quvln ess( cudn h er ,


Tear beginning : : : : : : :
AULEt :Stocks at: Farm : I Total :Civlliaz: Seed :
I/ I:begiing:production:Imports:supply Ifoo 1/ I and :
_________ : : : : feed :
In terns of called rice 10/
M illor Million Million Million Million Million
bags 10/ ba bags s b bags

193L : 1.74 11.25 .33 13.32 7.13 .77
1935 : .53 11.55 .16 12.24 b.65 .89
1936 : .s4 13.76 .25 l1.87 7.6V 1.29
1957 1.69 15.19 .11 16.99 7.61 1.09
1938 1.50 15.23 .12 16.65 7.31 .93
1939 a 2.32 15.30 .13 17.75 7.75 .96
19140 : 2.70 15.41 .08 15.19 7.69 1.10
19g1 : 1.69 14.62 .09 16.40 7.00 1.24
1942 : .19 18.90 .09 19.18 7.35 1.28
1943 : 1.19 19.48 .01 20.98 6.96 1.28
1911 : 1.97 20.45 -- 22.12 6.33 1.27
1945 1 .77 20.44 .02 21.23 5.bo 1.37
1946 .: 85 22.07 --- 22.92 8.26 1.41
1947 11 : .35 22.99 -- 23.34 7.07 1.37
1948 11/ : .26 23.86 --- 26.12


Broken rice
used by
brewer's
41/


el : : !
: Total : Com- :USDA not:
idomeEtic:mercial:military:
: : 6l : :


I Shipments 5/ : : :
Total : : : Total :Military:Balanc-:
ex- : Com- :USDA not: ihip- :procure-: ing :
ports :merci&l:millitary: ments "ment 8/ : item :
71 : : : 7/ : I


Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million
bags bags bags bags bags e ag* bags bae b*s


7.93
7.54
8.97
9.10
8.59
9.?5
9.30
8.92
9.27
9.55
9.12
8.39
10.51
10.47


:Civilian
Carry-: per
over : capital
stocer: con-
21 :sumotion


Million Million Founds
bjSe..._ bags_ t lled rice


3.14
2.95
3.00
3.39
3.02
3.16
3.31
2.81
2.91
3.13
2.56
3.16
, 1.S5
3.21


In terms of rough rioe
Million
bushels

193 : 6.06
1935 : 1.84
1936 : 2.87
1937 : 6.11
19 8 5.28
1939 a 8.00
1940 : 9.51
1941 : 5.97
1942 .67
1943 : 5.10
1944 6.58
1945 : 2.59
1946 : 2.83
1947 1/ 1 1.15
1948 11/ : .89
*


Million Million Million Million Million
bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


39.05
39.1,5
49.82
53.t42
52.51
54.06
514.43
51.32
64.63
65.03
68.83
68.15
72.22
78.26
81.17


46.26
41.84
53.59
59.92
58.20
62.52
64.25
57.61
65.61
70.16
75.41I
70.61
75.05
79.41
82.06


24.75
22.71
27.59
26.87
25.20
27.38
27.16
24.57
25.13
23.23
21.31
18.00
27.03
24.07


Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million Million
bushels bushels bushels bunhele bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


27.52
25.75
32.143
32.00
29.62
32.68
32.85
31.31
31.70
31.87
30.70
27.97
35.37
35.64


4.20
2.70
3.?29
10.73
11.48
10.95
13.95
16.04,
9.147
11.25
14.514
13.914
14.76
21.55


0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.11
5.51
5.5U&
2.56
9.73
12.60
7.S6


*.?20
2.70
3.29
10.73
11.48
10.95
13.95
16.15
14.98
16.79
17.10
23.67
27.36
29.41


10.90
10.07
10.85
11.92
10.'h
11.17
11.69
7.58
1.33


8.30
6.02
10.93


0
0
0
0
0
0

2.28
8.62
10.45
8.62
2.23
.03


10.90
10.07
10.85
11.98
10.41
11.17
11.69
9.A6
9.95
10.45
8.62
10.53
6.05
10.93


.70
2.80
--






2.67
13.6o
6.40
2.29
1.46


.1.6O

+.91
-.01
-1.31
-1.82
-.21
-1.08
*1.08
+1.80
+2.80
-.59
+2.93
+1.08


Data from Production and Marketing Administration of the U. S. Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of Rational Defense, in addition to the Bureau of
Agricultural Iconomics. Unmilled rice is converted on the basis of pounds of milled rice (heads, second heads and screenings, excluding brewers) produced annually from
100 pounds of rough rice, converted separately for the Southern States and California.

I/ Includes California on an October 1 year. 2/ Stocks on farms, in country warehouse and in mills, and In addition includes U.S.D.A. holdings outside of mills, in million
r'age as follows: 1.06 In 1943, 1.79 in 1911, 0.25 to 1945, 0.37 In 194o, 0.16 in 1917 and 0 in 19 8. j/ Civilian food disappearance of commercially milled rice produced
from domestic grain plus rice used on farms where grown and by custom mills for local consumption, adjusted for military procurement and use of broken rice by brewers. Thus,
consumption data represent the year rice enters trade channels rather than the time of actual human consumption. In some years large stocks are held by wholesalers and
retailers while in other years such stocks are small. 4/ Rice used by brewers other than brewers rice as such, which is not included in this table. 2/ Beginning with
1941, exports and shipments are on a July year. Complete figures are available for such a year, whereas they are not for an August year. Insofar as the figures for the
lmnth of July are not much different from one year to another, the use of the July year to Justifiable. 6/ Includes exports of rough rice in terse of milled equivalents.
/ Izxaludes shipments by military for civilian relief feeding. 8/ Procurea for both civilian relief feeding and for military food use; military takingB for civilian feeding
in occupied areas measured at time of procurement not at time of shipment overseas. j/ Balancing item results from drying loss, vwate, and errors in data and conversions.
1O/ Bag equals 100 pounds. II1 Preliminary.


.1 -


1. .j..*'


i.,. _,


I m


U S di




-r


Table 14.-Rice, Blue Rose (Zenith beginning 1947), extra fancy: Average wholesale price per pound, milled,
New Orleans 1929-30 to date


9._ ear
*:


Aug. : Sept. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. : Apr. : May : June' : July : Average
Cents : Cents : Cents Cents : Cents : Cents Cents : Cents : Cents : Cents : Cents .: Cents : Cents


Blue Rose
1929-30 : 4.60
1930-31 4.31
1931-32 3.38
1932-33 : 2.26
1933-34 : 3.41
193h-35 : 3.92
1935-36 : 4.21
1936--37 : /465
1937-39 : 3.56
1938-39 : 3.05
1939-40 : 2.86

1930 39 Ai., q.;56

1940-/1 : 3.52
1941-42 : 4.17
1942-43 6.95
19413-J44 6.60
194h-45 : 6.60
195-A&6 : 6.60
194c-4? : 6.60
19"-L8 : 13.15


4.22 :
4.0 :0
3.25
2.45
3.67
3.88
4.22
Z../ :
3.9:
2.90
4.19

3.65


4.16 :
6.65



7.38
11.80


3,98 3
4.00 :
3.00 2
2.28
3.90
3.81:
4.50 :
3.77
3.21
* 2.73 -
3.58:



3.04

6.15
6.60
6.,60 -
6.60
8.15
11. :0


4.07 .
3.70
3.05
2.16 :
3.92
3.73 :
4...78
3.63
3.32
2.82
3.5 :

3.46

3.22
4.88
6.56
6.60 :
6.60:
6,40 .
8.58
12.1?-


4.07
3.6 :
3.06
2.08
3.99
3.72
,.O :O
3,01
?.12
2.85
3.38 -



3.3 .
6,. 2
6.63
6.6:
6-0 .


2. 1 V'


4.08
3.55
2.97
2.00
4.03
3.58
4.18
3.7?
3.19
2-96
-3.3'

3.3S


6.76
6.65
6.60
6.60
6. 05
9.00
12.65


4- 44
3.75
2.2 :
1.95
4.03
3.56
3.87 :
4.22
3.05 :
3.00
3 .i :Q

3.34

3.97
6.81
6.50
6.60
6.60
6:60
9.00
1j).40


4.44 .:
3.66
2.67 :
2.14
4-03 :
3.78
3.98
4.26
2.87
2.94 :
2.93

3.') .

4.22
7.00
6.50 :
6.60
. 6.60
6.60 :
'. 30
2.3 :


4.4.4:
3.62
2.21 :
2.30 .
4.03
3.93

4.26
2.76
2,02 :
2.93

3.36 .

.7 .


6.60
6.60'
6.60
i fl0


012. 0


4.44
3.53
2.37
2.91
4.03
4,12
4.55
4.16
2.66
2.95
3.16

3.44

4.81
7.-60


6.60
6,60
6,6o
6.60
9.00
13'. C0


Zenith : : : : :
194 "--8 .12. '5 11,O 1..) 12.10 I .15 12.65 : ]. 0 :'5 .60 : 13.13
1&42.. 11,00 P 8d. 0 : 8..3 ..i.s 17.1 3: 9.5 :9.3.' U,9.
Data from Production and M!arket-tg Adman .sLraLion, U, 3. D. A.


: 4.4/4
: 3.50
: 2.34
: 3.00
: 4.03
: 4.24
: 4.57
: 3.85
2.82
: 2.92
3.23

3.45

4,78
.7.'25
6.6,0
6.60
. -6,60
6.60
9 901


: 4.44 : 4.30
: 3.50 : 3.72
2.16 : 2.79
: 3.09 : 2.38
4 ..00 : 3.92
: .4.31 : 3.85
: 4.52 : 4.39
: 3,86 : 4.05
: 2.87 : 3.08
: 2.93 : 2.91
: 3.45 : 3.30

S3.47 : 3.44

: -..62 : 3.93
: 7.15 6.16
: 6.60 : 6.58
- 6.60 6.60
: 6.60 : '6.60
: 13.50 : 7.17
13.25 : 8.91
: 16.50 : 13.20

: 16.25 : 12.95


I
ro
'0





MI-AR'CH-APRIL 1949


Table 15.- Rice rcugh:


Louisiano and California prices received by farmers,
b,' months, 1933-49


Louisiana price per barrel oP 162 pounds
Year : : : : :
beginning: Aug~.Sent,0Oct. :iov. -Dec, nJan, 'Feb. :Mar, :Apr. :?iay :Jane :July
Aug. D o : : l D D D Dol.
SDol, ol, Dol. Dol. Dol, Dol. Dol. Dol. Dl Dbol. Dol. Dol..


1933
19 34
1935
1936
1957
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948


: 2.34
: 2.84
: 2.66
: 3.28
: 2,74
: 2.30
: 2.09
: 2.84
: 3,82
5.76
: 5o83
: 5.94
: 6,12
: 6,30
.10 80
9,00


2.70
2.81
1098
3.56
2.34
2.16

2.30
3,13
5,76
5.80

6 4-3
7c09
8050
7,09


2.81
2.99
2.34
3.13
2.88
?2,34
2,74
2,52
3,46
5.29
6.26
6. 59
6.41
7.81
8.75
7.38


2.88
3.06
2.52
3.02
2,99
2.48
2.81
2.388
4.62
5.58
6.91
6.65
6.84

9o54
8.57


2.70
2,81
2.66
2 95
2,45
2.34
2.66
2.99
5.36
6,12
68,84
G.77
G,66

10 01
8,75r


2.;81
2.77
2. 99
3.31
2.59
2,38
2.70
3.46
5.69
6.48
6.98
6,66
E ,66
8.4G
10.70
8,,50


2.84
2.95
3.06
3.49
2,38
2.48
2.48
35.82
5.98
6.!48
7.06
6.66
6,48
9,72
11. 50
7.67


2.88
3.06
2.99
3,53
2,27

2,34
3,78
G.41
6.55
6,84
6.66
7,0?
9o72
11 ,00
7,38


2.92
3.10
3.0C6
3.60
2.05
2,30
2.34
4.50
6,55
6.73

6, 66
7002
.33G
11020


2,81
3c13
3 20
3.42
2.09
2,30
2.70
4,,50
6. b5
6.62
6.48

7:20
9.360
1102


2,77
3.
o.20
3,,20
2.27
2.30
2.70
4.36
6-19
6.62
6.26
6,66
7.20
8 886
1130


2.70
3.17
3. 24
3.0J6
2.30

2c84
4.21
6,12
6,48
6.30
C.66
7,20
10.10
11.20


California price per 100 pounds /,'
Year s : : :
beginning: Aug,:Sept.:Oct '.'ov. :Dec. :Janc :Feb. .iar -Apr. :May :June :July

: Dol. Dol, Dol, Dol. Dol, Dol, Dol, Dol. Dol, Dol, ola, Dol.


1933
1934
1935
1936
19,7
19:33
1939
19 10
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1941.
1947
1948


172
1.75


1,51
i; 51
1.33
1l 27
1,36
1.93
3436
3,p64
3.44
5o44
3.42
5.89
6.00


1,73
l175
1.11
2.00
140
133
3,31
1133
2,00
4.00
3,64
3,44
3044
3.4?
4,89
6.00


1.72
1.74
1420
1,56
1.24
1,27

1,29
2,22
3.00
3.40
,",44
4.42
4.22

4,00


1,75
1,65
1.15
1.56
1I 20
1,24
1.31
1.24
2.38
3 .00
3.44

3.42
".33
6,11
4,11


1,77
1 c6
1,15
1.29
1. 20
1.'2/'
1.31
1031
2.89
3,16
3.60
3,44


5.89
4.78


1.80


lo33
1.31
Ir 2?
131
1.38


3,73

3.42
4.33
6.11
4.67


lo80
1.60
1, B:C
1.53
1,40

lo.58
1L42
3q11
3.33
3.73
3.44
3.42
4.33
6.33
4.33


1079
1.47
1,96
1,56

1, 24
1,27

3.11

3,96
3,144
3.42

O,33
4.11


1.7C
1.67
2,00
1., '3
1,33
1,22
1.29
1,51
3.-36
3.64
3.96
3.44
3.42
4.53
6,33


1,75
1.91
2.00
1.;51
1.33
I1 20
1.27
1,56
3336
3.76
3. 44
3.44
3,42
4.75
6.441


1,74

2.00
1:,51
1.29
1.13
124
1,73
3,36
3576
3,44
3,44
3,42
4 -.3
r,56


1.75
1.89
2.00
1.51
1,31
1.13
1,33
1.87
3-,36
3.64
3,44
3.44
3.42
5,89
6,56


1/ Prior to January 1936, price of
Rural Press.


-alifornma paddy,


foobu varehouse, from Pacific


2/ Prices beginning with January 1946 subject to revision, the price on December
1946 vas revised from $3.67 to $3.412.


- 30 -






r, ; ', t i i
17-110 31 -

Table 16.- Rice (in terms of milled): World production and trade 1935-36
to 1359-40, estimated production and export supplies,
1948-49 1/

',: ,Apparent:
: Estimated :dome.ti"
Continent : production : -isap- International trade
and : :ccara ncere:
country : 1935-36: Prewar average : Export
.* to : 2/ : Net Net :supplies
S1959-40 : -4 0 imports exports:1940 2/
h ,OCO : I,C0 1,000 1,000 ; 1,000 1,000
: sh. t.ons:sh.tons:sh.tons :sh.tons:sh.tons:sh.tons
':... stern emishere: : : :
,"' North America: : : : :
S United States ......... 729: 1187 622. : 107. 450
Mexico ................. : 5__ 107: 5C : 13 9: 45
... Estimated total.....: 24 1570. 1,140: 332: 1.6: 70
S.South America: : : : : : 6
Brazi] ................ : 971: 1,609: 929 : 42t 100
Bri Jt sh ionj. ....: 5./ : 35: .- : 17. 25
:. Ecu .,r., .............. 50: ?/' : 37: : 13: 50
Es t'i.mj ed total..... : I,'C: ,767: 41,329.: 101: : 170
S Total western n Hemisphere.; 2 25 .- 5-7 _27469: .5 4,5 1J96: 675
S Asia: : :
S French In.d!o-China 3.... 5,.',5 5,23: 3,429 1l',1) 200
SSiam.......... .......s ., 56. .,'39: 1,8l.6: : 1,460: 1.375
.. Bu na ...............: 5,499: 4 ,166: 2,221 3,269: 1,700
SChina....... ........ : 41,F18: 37,17D: 41,729: 411: : -
Japan ................. : 3,33 : ,,072: 11,351: 1,946: -
S Korea.......... ...... : 3 .23:4 2,4 ,- ?1: 2,022: 1,061: -
S Formosa ..............: 1,350: 1,169 641: : 709- 5/ 400
Philiopines......... .. l,C6k: l,d.4: 1,717: 65: -
Mal"yan Union...... ..,: 427: 425: 1,206: 79: : -
Ne'herlands Indies 6/.: 6.,': 0 3/ 7,172: 12 -
Indian Union...... ...:7/22,11?: 24,12? (2 1,, 1 -
P% kistan............ :7/ .: 3, 78: ( ,- ,
Others. ............... 3,4 : 3/ 4,86: 1,0_35: 30: 45
kEstimwted total.....: 112,200:109,700: 110,1CO: 6,060 8,140: 3,720
Europe: :
Ita.ly.................. .CSO: 463: 382 163: 65
*s tima ted to ta 1.....: 77: "92 2, 5: 1,416 170 65
Africa: : :
Eg1 pt., ..... ........ : 1,';.24 ,0: 132: 330
iL.timated total.....: i.693 : Z'm65-. 1' :" 4-E, 156; 340
Estimated world total1.: i1, 520;i-1.7CC' ''' ,J i-0~ ,' 00; 4,300
Compiled in the Of'ice Gf Fo.reivr. A.gri-ul.ural ..-5t..Jls.
1/ For co'tntria? o' Asia and Africa, rour. -:,.ce i. converted to terms of
milled at 70 percent, and for other *-'unt.riWs :.L 5S perT'ant. P/ Preliminary.
3/ Sta-istics nat yet ava'labie. 4/ Soi-ah Forea :,nly. s5/ Available for
shipment tc-China. 6/ Estim&te for all Net.,erlands indies. 7, Less than
5-year average,

'C*




U..S. DEPART LET OF AGRICULTURE Penalty for private uM
WAS!TINTON 25, D, C. payment of postage $0SB L .
uLIj ERSIT Y OF FLORIDA
OFFICIAL 7UTSINESSI 1 I I II
3 1262 08862 6550
BAL.-.'S-110-4'/ 9-53 00 U:IVER3;TY OF FLORIDA I :
PLRiIT 1?;. li01 LIBRARY
DOCUMENTS DEPT ;
9-13-48
FNS-x GAIUJESVILLE, FLA





I'ble' 1, .- Rice, rough: Acreage seeded, yield, and production in
Southern States and California, and total acreage and
production in the United States, 1925-48 24

Acreage : Average .i Id : Production
Year : per ae. -- per acre -
:Southern: Call- :United:Southern: Call- : Southern: Call- : United
: States :fornia :States: States :fornia : States :fornia : States ...
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
acres acres acres Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels
1925 7: 0 103 853 37.6 46.6 1/28,236 4,800 33,036
1926 : 867 149 1,016 39.3 53.6 \L/34,039 7,986 42,025-
1927 : 867 160 1,027 41.0 56.0 1/35,537 8,960 44,497
1928 : 840 132 972 42.5 61.9 1/35,663 '8,171 43,834 ':
1929 765 95 360 44 2 60.2 33,815 5,719 39,534
1930 : 856 110 966 44.0 66.1 37,658 7,271 44,99 'I
1931 840 125 965 43.3 66.o 36,363 8,250 44,613
1932 764 110 874 44.3 70.9 33,819 7,800 41,619
1933 690 108 798 44.5 64.0 30,739 6,912 37,651 `
1934 704 108 812 43.7 76.4 30,791 8,256 39,047 -:
1935 717 100 817 44.7 74.0 32,052 7,400 39,452
1936 843 138 981 48.0 68.0 40,435 9,384 49,820
1937 967 149 1,116 45.8 61,5 44,314 9,108 53,422 '
1938 951 125 1,076 46.4 67.0 44,131 8.375 52,506 o
1939 925 120 1,045 48.7 75.0 45,062 9,000 54,062 M
1940 : 972 118 1,090 46.3 80.0 44,993 9,440 54,433
1941 : 1,110 153 1,263 38.7 55.0 42,908 8,415 51,323
1942 : 1,278 212 1,490 40.7 56.0 52,000 12,627 64,627
1943 1,280 237 1,517 39.4 61.4 50,471 14,560 65,031 A
1944 : 1,257 246 1,503 42.8 61.0 53,830 15,000 68,830 '.' m
1945 : 1,268 239 1,5C7 42.8 53.2 54,235 13,915 68,150 4I
1946 : 1,331 255 1,586 41.2 66.1 54,632 17,584 72,216 .
1947 : 1,453 250 1,703 41.6 71.4 60,403 17,856 78,259
1948 2/: 1,519 235 1,757 43.6 62.5 66,302 14,868 81,170 :
1949 3/: 1,491 262 1,753 (79,000):.

I/ Includes production in other States, in thousand bushels, as follows:
300 in 1925, 610 In 1926, 75 in 1927 and 400 in 1928.
2/ Preliminary.
3/ March, 1949 Prospective Pl14tings.
.,. ....... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ;- .,.,,, .- -.,.'i ..-




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