The sheep and lamb situation

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Title:
The sheep and lamb situation
Physical Description:
30 no. : ; 28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Sheep industry -- Marketing -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Lamb meat industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
SLS-1 (Jan. 1937)-
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Ceased with SLS-30 (June 1939).
General Note:
Title from caption.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: SLS-24 (Dec. 20, 1938).

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University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
oclc - 01642958
ocm01642958
Classification:
lcc - HD9436.U5 A2
System ID:
AA00011235:00017

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Hog situation
Succeeded by:
Beef cattle situation
Succeeded by:
Livestock situation


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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington


SLS-19 July 20, 1938



THE SHEEP AND LAMB SITUATION



Summary


Prices of lambs probably will remain below those of last year during

the next few months, with some decline from mid-July levels as supplies of

grass-fat lambs increase seasonally. The Bureau of Agricultural Economics

points out, however; that in the late fall and early winter months

improvement in consumer demand for meats and in prices of wool and pelts

probably will be strengthening factors.

All indications point to a larger lamb crop this year than last.

And slaughter supplies of sheep and lambs during the late summer and early

fall are likely to be larger than in the corresponding period a year ago.

The number of lambs slaughtered may be increased also by the large

proportion of fat lambs in supplies from the late lambing areas in the

Western Sheep States, together with a weak demand for feeder lambs. Few

contracts for western lambs for feeding had been made by mid-July this

year, whereas last summer relatively large numbers of western lambs had been

contracted by mid-July,

Prices of lambs in June were somewhat higher than in May, as n "rropc
p' I <
lambs wore marketed in volume, Prices of lambs, however, weakened in i

late June, Slaughter supplies of sheep and lambs in Juno were smaller

than those of a month earlier, but continued to be larger than those i

last year.






SLS-19


REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

BACKGROUN1D.- With marked weakness in consumer demand
for meats and in prices of pelts and wool, the seasonal
decline in prices of lambs which begin in the summer of
1937 was ext'-ndid into a general decline and reached a
low point in February 1938. since February, lamb
prices have recovered somewhat but have remained well
below those of corresponding months last year. During
the fed-lamb marketing season (December-April), prices
paid by packers for sheep md lambs averaged 20 percent
lower than a year earlier, and the lowest fort he period
since 1932-33. The live weight of sheep and lambs
slaughtered under Federal inspection during this period
was abcut the sane as a year earlier. In May, the live
'.cilht of inspected sheep and larb slaughter was 15
percent heavier, and the average price of spring lambs
at Chicago was nearly 30 percent lower than a year
earlier,


Prices of lambs advanced in early Juno but declined later

Prices of good and choice spring lambs at Chicago in June averaged
about $9.30 per 100 pounds, a.pproxinatoly 40 cents higher than a month
earlier, but more than $2.50, or about 22 percent lower than in Juno 1937.
The number of sheep and lambs slaughtered under Federal iispLction in
June, totaling 1,485,000 head, was 4 percent smaller than a month earlier,
but was somewhat larger than in June last year.

The eastern movement of spring lambs front California was virtually
completed in early June. Prices of spring larbs advanced sharply at
that time, but declined during the rour.iinicr of the month. although
marketing of new-crop lambs from the Southeastern States, Idaho, and some
sections of the Corn Belt got under way in fairly larec voluno, receipts
of sheep and lambs at seven markets in late June and early July were
somewhat smaller than those of a nonth earlier. In early July, some
recovery in larb prices occurred, but for the week ended July 16 prices
of good and choice spring lambs at Chicago, averaging $9.14, were 80 cents
lower than at the high point in early Juno.


Sheep :and iambs in good condition

With continued favorable range and pasture conditions, sheep and
lambs on July 1 vore in very good condition in nearly all areas of the
country. The average condition of western sheep and l.-r.bs was estimated
to be 90 percent of normal, the saio as a nonth earlier, and 2 points
higher than the 10-year average for that date.






SLS-19


Rains in late June and early July brought improvement to some
ranges in the Western Sheep States, particularly in western Texas, New
Mexico, and parts of Arizona. During June, early lambs made very good
gains in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Late lambs made good gains in all
areas of the Western States, except New Mexico.

More early Texas lambs were marketed during the spring than a year
earlier, Very few western lambs have been contracted for future delivery
as feeders this year. Prices offered for such lambs have been much lower
than those paid a year ago,


OUTLOOK

In the Jiune issue of -thisreport- the foll-owing-indications were
given with respect to supplies and prices of lambs during the summer
months:

I. -Markotings of lambs this summer probably
will be larger than in the summer of 1937. But the
number of yearlings to be marketed from Texas is expected
to b.e smaller than the unusually large number marketed
a year ago.

2. Prices of lambs are expected to decline
seasonally during the summer months, as supplies of
grass-fat lambs increase.


Slaughter supplies of sheep and lambs during the late summer and
early fall are likely to be larger, and consumer demand for meats and
prices of pelts and wool weaker, than in the corresponding period a year ago.
Hence, prices of lambs probably will remain below those of last year
during the next few months, with a tendency to decline as supplies of grass-
fat lambs increase seasonally. But improvement in consumer demand and
in prices of pelts and wool from present levels probably will be
strengthening factors in the late fall and early winter months.

The number of lambs to be slaughtered during the summer and early
fall months will depend partly on the number sold as feeders. Last
summer relatively large numbers of wester, lambs wore sold on contract
for fall delivery as feeders. But up to mid-July this year, the demand
for western lambs for feeding, as indicated by the number of contracts
made, was much weaker than a year earlier.

All indications point to a larger lamb crop this year than last,
but estimates of the lamb crop will not be available until July 27.
Estimates in March indicated that the early spring lamb crop was at
least 15 percent larger this year than last. Since March, conditions have
been generally favorable for the development of other lambs.






SLS-19


WOOL SITUATI lOl 1/


Although little change in domestic wool prices is expected in the
immediate future, some strengthening in prices may occur before the end
of the year. Prices wore irregular early in June but were firm to slightly
higher late in the month as demand improved. Stocks of finished and soni-
finished goods probably have becn sharply reduced in recent months, and
some recovery in mill consumption of wool from present low levels appears
likely inthe late summer and fall, Prices in foreign markets may continue
steady in view of the prospects for sono decrease in production in the
Southern Hemispherc.

Supplies of raw wool in the United States at the present time are
considerably larger than at the same time in 1936 and 1937. But if
imports remain small, as now appears likely, an increase in consumption
in the latter part of 1938 over that of 1937 might result in smaller stocks
of wool on January 1, 1939, than on January 1, 1938, but stocks probably
will remain relatively large.

The weekly rate of mill consumption of apparel wool in the United
States in May was the highest reported since last September. The May
consumption, however, was 43 percent lower than in May 1937. Consumption
in the first 5 months of this year was only half as large as in the same
months of last year and was about 30 percent smaller than the average
consumption for those months in the 5 years, 1932-36.

.Although present indications point to a fairly large carry-over
into the 1938-39 season in the Southern Hemisphere, this may be largely
offset by a decrease in production. Supplies for the 1938-39 season,
therefore, may be no larger than in 1937-38. The now Australian clip will
amount to approximately 960 million pounds, grease equivalent, according
to a preliminary estimate. This is a decrease of about 6 percent compared
with the 1937-38 clip and will be the smallest clip since 1930.

From such information as is available it appears that supplies of
raw wool in Europcan countries are not largc, but apparently are adequate
for current mill requirements, which are at a reduced level. Stocks of
raw wool in Japan are the smallest in many years. Imports into that
country are likely to continue relatively small but perhaps not so small
as in the season now closing.


/ From the July 15 issue of the Demand and Price Situation. For a more
detailed discussion see the monthly Wool Situation, copies of which
may.bo obtained from the Divizion of Economic Information, Bureau of
Agricultural Lconc:-ics, 'Washington, D. C.







SLS-19


Supplies of sheep and lambs, specified periods


f Year Month
Item :Unit Avora. Juno : June May : June
Item Unit Avorap
.*, : 1936 : 1937 :avorago:
-9 211-r
: : :1-24-33: 1937 : 1938 : 1938
Sheep and iambs:
Number slaughtered
under Federal : Thou-
inspection l/....: sands 1: ,737 17,216 17,270 1,216 1,425 1,550 1,485


Receipts at seven :
markets 2/.......: do. :3/15,241 11,892 11,470 3/ 818


682 883 669


Year : Month
SMay : May : Apr. : May
average : 1936 :1937 :average:
.1924-33 : :1924-33: 1937 : 1938 : 1938


Slaughter under
Federal inspection::
Lambs & yearlings-: Thou-
Number slaughtered sands
Percentage of
total sheep and
lambs.......... :Percent:
Sheep: : Thou-
Humb br slaughtered sands
Percentage of
total sheep and
lambs .......... :Percent:
Sheep and lambs:
Average live
weight ......... Pound

Average dressed
weight ........: do.

Total dressed
weight .........:Mil.lb.:


13,678 15,647 15,912


92.8


1,081 1,263 1,354


90.9 92.1 90.7 92.2 95.0 93.8


1,059 1,569 1,358 111 107


7,2


7.9 9.3


81 85 85 8 80


71 95


7.8 5.0 6.2


82 87 83


39 40 40 38 40 41 40


569 680 683


46 54 58 62


1/ Bureau of Animal Industry.
2/ Chicago, Kansas City, Omaha,
3/ Average 1929-33.


Denver, St. Joseph, Sioux City and St. Paul.


1,455





SLS-19


Price per 100 pounds of sheep and lambs, by months, April June, 1936-33


9: -_ 7_ : 1938


Item : Ar. May June Apr.: May


June Ar. May


: Dol. Dol.


Slaughter lambs,
Chicago:
Good and Choice :10.98 1/10.26
Common & '.ediunm :10.01 1/ C.86


Slaughter ewes, :
Chicago:
Good and Choice :
Common & Medium


5.70 /
4.63 /


Dol. Pl. Dol. Dol.


/11.44
2/ 9.32


4.4 /0 3.45
3.36 1/ 2.28


12. '2 1/
11. /


5.67 1/
4.17 i/


9.99 2/11*.)
8.42 2/10.42


4.50 -/ 3.73
2.93 1/ 2.30


Dol. Dol.


Dol.


3.26 1/7.37 2/9.30
6.44 1/5.82 2/7.76


4.82 1/3.62 1/3.39
3.41 1/2.69 1/2.59


Feeding lambs,
Omaha:
Good and Choice : 9.05
.:v.rJe price paid:
by packers:
Shepr & lambs : 9.70
Average price
received by
farmers:
Shiep ..........: 4.48
Lambs ........: 8.46
Lamb, New York:
holesle.
carcass: 3/
Choice .......:20.67
Good ......... 20.06
sodiumm ....... :19.08
Pulled wool
Boston: 4/
Choice: AA ....: 93.2
Choice 17hite E: 73.1
Shccp poltzpac! :rs
shearlings, iv. :
Chic-..-o oc~ch e/..: 1.00


c.99 8.60 10.20


9.76 9.66 10.92



4.30 4.03 4.93
8.59 8.33 9.19


22.15
21.26
19.68


91.2
75.5


1.05


23.15
21.80
19.65


21.05
20.05
16.85


--- 8.53 7.21 --


9.69 9.95 7.91 7.37



4.89 4.52 3.90 3.59
9.16 8.83 7.23 6.90


21.32
20.20
18.38


21.40
20 20
13.13


93.1 1 3.3 110.0 107.5
7'.1 ..0 94.2 91.2


1.12 1.55


1.4'


18.66





56.5


1.39 0.52


18.52
171
17.8803
16.39


72.5
57.5


6.97


3.43
6.84


15.88
17.98
16.39


69,0
54.0


1/ :.rn b.sis.


2, w..r.w cro..


3/For :'; :*.n-c Goo' ".r?.:;es, 38 pounds down; For Medium carcasses, 38 pounds
dcn in -j id 1 J3' .. .:u al ai weigt in .19 l...
_/Ccnts per pound. /BLureau of Labor f;'.::tistics.


0.52 0.52


June







PRICE OF LAMBS AT CHICAGO, FEDERALLY INSPECTED SLAUGHTER
OF SHEEP AND LAMBS AND INCOME OF INDUSTRIAL WORKERS,
UNITED STATES, AND PRICE OF WOOL AT BOSTON, 1929-38
DOLLARS I I I I I I THOUSANDS
PER 100 Price of lambs at Chicago
POUNDS (Bulk ofsales) Inspected slaughter of
16 -____-- --____ sheep and lambs 1,800
(3-months moving average)

14 -- -- ------ 1,600
\s.,% A A, I"A

S12- -I It i 1,400


10 1,200


8 -----1,000


6 ft 800

INCOME I I I I PRICE
(PERCENT) Inco e of industrial workers* (CENTS PER
:4 Index numbers (1924-29 100) POUND )
100 ,- 100

I I
80 80

60 ---- ;cI 60
L I ^ Price of '
wool at Boston,
40 \- I' 40


1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
* ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION d TERRITORY, SCOURED BASIS, GRADE 56'S


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 34448 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I.- THE USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION AND PART OF THE YEAR-
TO-YEAR CHANGES IN THE PRICE OF LAMBS MAY BE EXPLAINED LARGELY BY
CHANGES IN SLAUGHTER SUPPLIES. OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING LAMB PRICES
ARE CONSUMER INCOME AND WOOL PRICES. SLAUGHTER SUPPLIES OF SHEEP
AND LAMBS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEASONALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS. HENCE SOME FURTHER WEAKNESS IN THE PRICE OF LAMBS SEEMS
LIKELY, BUT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSUMER DEMAND FOR MEATS AND IN
PRICES OF PELTS AND WOOL PROBABLY WILL BE STRENGTHENING FACTORS IN
THE LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER MONTHS.




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