The hog situation

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Title:
The hog situation
Physical Description:
32 no. : ; 28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Swine -- Marketing -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
HS-1 (Nov. 1936)-HS-32 (June 1939).
General Note:
Title from caption.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
oclc - 04752171
ocm04752171
Classification:
lcc - HD9435.U5 A25
System ID:
AA00011234:00030

Related Items

Preceded by:
World hog and pork prospects
Succeeded by:
Beef cattle situation
Succeeded by:
Sheep and lamb situation
Succeeded by:
Livestock situation


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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

MAY 18, 1939
T H EH G S I T U A T I --------
THE H 0 G S I TUAT 0 N


AVERAGE PRICE OF HOGS AT CHICAGO. FEDERALLY INSPECTED
SLAUGHTER OF HOGS, AND INCOME OF INDUSTRIAL
WORKERS, UNITED STATES, 1929-39


DOLLARS
PER 100
POUNDS
9


6


3


1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939
*ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 34437 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


THIS CHART INDICATES THE RELATIONSHIP OF CHANGES IN SLAUGHTER SUPPLIES
OF HOGS AND CHANGES IN INCOME OF INDUSTRIAL WORKERS TO CHANCES IN HOC PRICES.
AFTER DECLINING DURING THE LAST HALF OF 1938, HOG PRICES STRENGTHENED IN
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 1939, AS HOG SLAUGHTER WAS REDUCED. BUT PRICES WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN MARCH AND APRIL, WITH A SLIGHT SEASONAL INCREASE IN SLAUGHTER
DURING MARCH AND A SMALL DROP IN INCOME OF INDUSTRIAL WORKERS FROM JANUARY
THROUGH MARCH.


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HS-31


------M----------------------^----------------
THE HOG SITUATION



Summary


Slaughter supplies of hogs for the 1939 summer marketing season,

May-September, are expected by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics to be

materially larger than during the summer season last year. But some sea-

sonal reduction in supplies is probable after mid-summer. Consumer demand

for hog products is likely to continue stronger than a year earlier during

the next several months, but any imIroven-rt from present levels may not

be great.

Relatively large losses of spring pigs have been reported in some

areas. The average number of pigs saved per litter may be smaller than

the record high average of last spring, but the reports in general indi-

cate that the number of sows farrowing this spring is substantially larger

than a year earlier. Despite the reports of heavy losses of spring pigs,

it is expected that the 1939 spring pig crop will be considerably larger

than the spring crop of 1938.

After declining sharply during March, prices of hogs weakened fur-

ther in April. In early May the weekly average price of butcher hogs at

Chicago was about $6.90 compared with $7.20 in late March and $8.05 in late

February.

Inspected hog slaughter for the entire month of April was somewhat

smaller than in March, but the slaughter at 8 important centers increased

considerably in late April. For the 1938-39 winter hog marketing season,


- 3 -





HS-31


October-April, inspected hog slaughter was about 12 percent larger than

in the 1937-38 winter season. This increase in slaughter reflects chiefly

the larger pig crop in the spring of 1938 than in the spring of 1937.





Recent Publications


The following publications relating to livestock have

been released recently by the Bureau of Agricultural Econ-

Somics. Copies of these reports may be obtained upon request

from the Division of Economic Inf:rmation, Bureau of Agri-

cultural Economics, Washington, D. C.

(1) Income from Cattle and Calves, Calendar Years
1-09-37. Part I, Section 4 of a series of re-
ports on Income Parity for Agriculture.

(2) Income from Sheep and Lambs, Wool and Mohair,
Calendar Years 1909-38. Part I, Section 6 of
a series of reports on Income Parity for Agri-
culture.

(3) Farm Production and Income from Meat Animals by
States, 1937-38.

(4) Direct Buying :;f Slught. r Livestock by Regicns,
192 -67.



NOTE: This issue of Th._. Fog Situation contains a special

article on Income From Iio-s in 1939.


- 4 -








REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

BACKGROUND.- Hog prices declined fairly sharply in late
sunner and fall of 1938 chiefly because of a rather
large increase in hog marketing. Marketings decreased
in January and February and prices rose moderately. Thus
far in the present hog marketing year supplies of hogs
marketed have been larger than a year earlier, reflect-
ing chiefly the 13 percent increase in the 1938 spring
pig crop over that of 1937. The 1938 fall pig crop was
18 percent greater than the fall crop of 1937.

Decline in hog prices continues in April

After declining sharply during March, hog prices continued to weaken
during April. For the week ended Llay 6, the average price of butcher hogs at
Chicago was about $6.90 compared with 7.20 in late !.'arch and $8.05 in late
February. The drop in prices in the past 2 months reflects partly the increase
in marketing during March and also a slight weakness in consumer demand for
hog products since January.

Marketings reduced in April

Inspected hog slaughter in April, totaling 2,931,000 head, was about
300,000 head smaller than in March. But it was about 470,000 head greater than
the slaughter in April last year. Slaughter in March was somewhat larger than
in February, but this increase was due chiefly to the fact that carch is a
longer month than February.

For the 1938-39 winter marketing season, 'ctcb-r through April, inspected
slaughter of hogs totaled 24.7 million head and was 12 percent larger than that
of the winter season of 1937-38,

Little change in storage stocks during April

Stocks of pork and lard on May 1 were about the same as on April 1.
Storage holdings of pork on May 1 were about 5 percent larger than a year ear-
lier, but they were about 14 percent smaller than the 1933-37 average for that
date. May 1 stocks of lard were slightly larger than those of May 1 last year
and they were about the same as the 5-year average.

Storage holdings of pork and lard on the first of the month,
specified months, average 1933-37, 1937-18 and 19.3839
: 5-year average 137-
1937-38 1938-39
Month : 1933-37 ::
: Pork : Lard Pork : Lard : Pork : Lard
: Mil.lb. 1il.lb. I l.1. Mil.lb. Mil. b. il.lb.
Oct. 415 108 283 73 277 90
Dew. 425 80 307 34 299 74
Feb. : 630 118 554 99 526 132
Mar. : 647 125 583 117 542 125
Apr. 620 127 544 121 523 129
May : 613 129 501 122 1/526 1/129
1/ Preliminary.


BS-31


- 5 -





HS-31


Pork exports increase in March lard exports reduced

Exports of pork in March, totaling about 10.9 million pounds, were nearly
3 million pounds larger than in February and about 2 million pounds larger than
in March last year. A large part of the increase over a month earlier and over
a year earlier occurred in shipments of hams and shoulders, most of which were
consigned to Great Britain. Exports of fresh pork in March also were larger
than in March last year.

Lard exports in March totaled 22 million pounds, about 2 million pounds
less than in February but 6 million pounds more than in March 1938. About two-
thirds of the increase in the March exports over a year earlier was in takings
by Great Britain, the leading foreign outlet for United States lard.

Pork imports in March, totaling about 4.6 million pounds, were slightly
larger than in the preceding month, but about 2 million pounds less than in
March last year.

OUTLOOK

As summarized in the April issue of the Hog Situation, the important
factors in the hog outlook are:

(1) The 1939 spring pig crop probably will be considerably larger than
that of 1938. In view of the fact that hog prices are high in relation to corn
prices and feed supplies generally are abundant, the 1939 fall pig crop may be
larger than that of 1938. Larger pig crops this year will mean that slaughter
supplies of hogs in the 1939-40 marketing year, which begins next October, will
be materially greater than in the current hog marketing year.

(2) Supplies of hogs for slaughter in the remainder of the 1938-39 mar-
keting year are expected to continue larger than those of a year earlier. Tho
increase in this period will reflect chiefly the larger fall pig crop in 1938
than in 1937.

(3) Consumer demand for hog products for the entire year 1939 probably
will average stronger than in 1938, as incomes of consumers are expected to be
greater this year than last. In the early months of the present year this de-
mand was somewhat stronger than a year earlier. But any improvement in consumer
demand from present levels, during the remainder of 1939, probably will not be
marked.

Seasonal changes in hog marketing

Although hog marketing for the entire month of April were somewhat smaller
than in March, market supplies increased materially in late April. A further in-
crease is expected in the next few weeks as marketing of fall pigs increase sea-
sonally. For the entire sunmer season, May through September, inspected slaughter
of hogs probably will be the largest for the period since 1933-34. Some seasonal
reduction in hck marktinrs, however, is likely during the late summer.


- 6 -







Losses of spring pigs

Relatively heavy losses of spring pigs have been reported in some areas
of the Corn Belt, but the extent of these losses is not known. Reports generally
indicate, however, that the number of sows farrowed this spring was considerably
larger than in the spring of 1939. The prospects for a large increase in the
number of sows -to farrow indicated in De,..-, ber 1938 Pig Crop report,. on the basis
of breeding intentions reported by farmers in early Decemiber.-

With losses of pigs reported heavy in some sections, it may be that the
average number of pigs sav:d per. litter this spring was not so great, as the record
high average last spring. But despite the indication of some decrease in the aver-
age number of pigs saved per litter, it is still expected that the total number of
pigs saved this spring was considerably greater than the total number saved last
spring.. The official estimates..of the 1939 spring pig crop will be released in
late June.

INCOME FROM HOGS REDUCED IN 1938

Cash farm income from hogs in 1938, totaling 874 million dollars, was
about 5,percent smaller than in 1937. Except for 1936 and 1937, however, the
income from hogs last year was the largest since 1930. The total volume of hogs
and hog products sold off farms in 1938 was larger than in 1937; the reduction in
income, therefore, was brought about by lower prices. The decline in prices from
1937 to 1938 resulted from larger marketing as well as the weaker consumer demand
for hog products.

The accompanying table gives the estimates of cash farm income from hogs
for the years 1924 through 1938 in the United States, the North Central States
(Corn Belt) and other States. The changes in income from.hogs for the 1924-38
period also are shown in figure 2 on the second page of this release.

It will be noted in the lower section of figure 2 that from 1924 through
1932 changes in the income from hogs in the West North Central States western n
Corn Belt) and in the.East North Central States (Eastern Corn Belt) were not
greatly different. But from 1934 through 1937, hog income in the East North
Central States increased considerably more than in the West North Central States.
In States other than the North Central States the increase was somewhat greater
than in the East North Central States.

In 1937 the cash income from hogs in the 'Jestern Corn Belt (West North
Central States) was 42 percent greater than in 1933; in the Eastern'Corn Belt
it was 97 percent greater; and in the States outside the Corn Belt the 1937 hog
income wa's 148 percent greater than that of 1933. For the United States as a
whole the cash farm income from hogs was 76 percent more in 1937 than in 1933.

These marked changes in the proportions of the total cash income from
hogs for the whole country which were received in the various regions is pri-
marily a reflection of the greater severity of the droughts of 1934 and 1936
in the Western Corn Belt than in other important hog producing areas. By far


HS-31


- 7 -







the greatest decrease in feed grain production and in hog production was in
the Western Corn Belt.

Cash farm income from sales of hogs
and hog products, 1924-38

: North Central States Other United
Year East : West : Total i States States
: 1,000 dol. 1,000 dol. 1,000 dol, 1,000 dol. 1,000 dol.

1924 ... 301,229 604,659 905,888 158,087 1,063,975
1925 ..: 360,517 763,061 1,123,578 195,034 1,318,612
1926 ...: 394,241 821,084 1,215,325 191,887 1,407,212
1927 ...: 345,129 689,724 1,034,853 202,646 1,237,499
1928 ...: 330,165 691,589 1,021,754 196,712 1,218,466
1929 ...: 353,888 753,834 1,107,722 189,043 1,296,765
1930 ... 302,943 683,046 985,989 149,511 1,135,500
1931 ...: 206,644 470,760 677,404 96,824 774,228
1932 ...: 129,213 244,093 373,306 71,286 444,592
1933 ...t 166,515 275,457 441,972 81,894 523,866
1934 ...: 165,990 272,070 438,060 82,571 520,631
1935 ...: 236,474 313,006 549,480 121,913 671,393
1936 ...: 308,121 491,896 800,017 164,665 964,682
1937 ...: 328,250 392,212 720,462 202,790 923,252
1938 /.: 301,525 389,491 691,016 183,401 874,417

1/ Preliminary.

Estimates of cash farm income from hogs by States for the years 1924-37
were published in a report of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics on Income
from Hogs, Section 3, Part I of a series of reports on Income Parity for Agri-
culture.


In the 4 years, 1934-37, the average annual pig crop in the Western Corn
Belt was 40 percent smaller than the 1929-33 average. In the Eastern Corn Belt
the 19.-4-37 average pig crop was about 17 percent less than the 1929-33 average.
But in the States outside the Corn Belt the pig crop in the years from 1934
through 1937 averaged slightly larger than in the 1929-33 period. For the
country as a whole the 1934-37 average pig crop was about 25 percent smaller
than the 1929-53 average.

Thesv marked changes in the number of pigs produced, of course, were
reflected in somewhat similar changes in marketing of hogs by areas. The
decrease in marketir.ns in the easternn Corn Pelt was much greater than in other
regions. The smaller marketing from 1934 through 1937 than in 1933 were ac-
companied by a considerable improvement in consumer demand, and as a result of
both the smaller supplies and the improved de-.L.d, hog prices rose materially.


HS-31


- 8 -






- 9 -


Combined spring and fall pig crops by regions
for selected years and periods


.... r:Average : :Average z : 1938
Region ...... .... ..34.7 1933 1937 1
:1929-733 19:7 1er g /
S. : Thou- Thou- Thou- Thou- Thou-
Ssands '- and's" sands sands sands
North Central States: -
E ast ................. 20,174_ 23,022 16,707. 17,860 20,147
West ............... : 41,012 40,670 24,407 23,581 27,81
Total .......: 61, 87 63,692 41,114" 41,441 47,959
Other States .......... : 18,845 20,508 18',55 20,466 23,129-
S United States ... .......;... 80,032 84,200 59,669 -61,907 71,088

1/ Preliminary.


The advance in hog prices was about the same for the different areas of
the country, and it was relatively greater than the-decrease in marketing for
the country as a whole. But with the proportion of the total marketing repre-
sented by marketing from the Western Corn Belt considerably smaller in the
1934-37 period than in 1933; the increase in farm income from hogs in the Western
Corn Belt was much less than the increase in the hog income in the Eastern Corn
Belt or in the States outside the Corn Belt. Stated in another way, the Western
Corn Belt sold hogs for much higher prices from 19.l4 through 1937 than in 1933,
but the number sold was much less than in 1933. The Eastern Corn Belt also had
fewer hogs to sell from 1934 through 1937 than in 1933, but the reduction was
much less than in the Western Corn Belt. The States outside the Corn Belt had
almost as many hogs to sell from 1934 through 1937 as in 1933, and the prices re-
ceived for hogs were considerably higher than in 1933.

The increase in the 1938 pig crop over that of 1937 was somewhat greater
in the Western Corn Belt than in the Eastern Corn Belt or 'in the States outside
the Corn Belt; As hog production had been reduced tn such a low level in the
Western Corn'Belt during the drought years, it is probable that the recovery in
prospect this year.and next will be much greater in this area than in other
areas, barring, of course, the recurrence of severe droughts. Such a develop-
ment would result'in an increase in the proportion of the total hog income going
to Western Corn Belt producers, brought about either by greater increases or
smaller decreases in the income from hogs in the Western Corn Belt than in other
regions. This tendency was evident in 1938, when income from hogs in the West-
ern Corn Belt was about the same as in 1937, while in the Eastern Corn Belt and
in the States outside the Corn Belt the 1938 hog income -was smaller than that of
1937.


HS-31




- 10 -


Supplies of hogs and hog products, specified periods


: : Oct,-Sept. ot.-Mar.
: : Average: s
Item : Unit :Mar. :Feb. :Mar. s1928-29:1936- :1937- :1937- :1938-
: : 1938: 1939: 1939: to : 37 : 38 : 38 ; 39
: : : :1932-33: :

Hog slaughter under
Federal inspection: : Thou-
Number slaughtered/- sands :2,610 2,890 3,229 46,363 34,142 34,560 19,608 21,753
Live weight
Average .........:Pound 228 230 230 231 221 234 229 229
Total ...........:Mil. 1h: 594 606 741 10,723 7,538 8,089 4,482 4,967
Dressed weight:
Average .........:Pound : 172 174 175 175 164 175 172 172
Total ..........:Mil.lb.: 447 501 564 8,069 5,586 6,046 3,356 3,720
Yield of lard per :
100 pounds live :
weight of hogs ..:FJund :13.1 13.6 13.4 15.2 10.9 12.4 12,1 13.1
Production of lard:Mil.lb.: 78 90 99 1,630 833 1,002 543 652
Apparent con-
sunmpt ion:
Pork,including
lard / :do. 464 463 551 7,171 5,601 5,795 2,923 3,274
Lard ........... do. 57 72 74 961 756 777 382 481
Ex :rk ..............: do. 9 8 11 211 59 89 42 54
Lard ..............: do. 16 24 22 657 107 208 112 131
Imports of pork 3/ ..: d:. 7 4 5 6 72 57 30 24
Proportion of sows
in inspected
slaughter 4/ ..... :Frr-ert: 47.0 44.4 45.9 51.2 51.1 49.9 47.2 44.5

i/ Bureau of Arn:.al r.dustry.


Represents apparent disappearance
unrendered hog fats.


of federally inspected pcrk plus


/f United States Decartment of Comrerce. Pork includes bacon, hams and
shoulders, and fresh !.rjL:ed, and pickled pork, Lard includes neutral
lard.
4 Includes gilts.


HS-31






- 11 -


Prices of hogs and hog products, specified periods


: : Oct.-Sept. : t *-Apr.
: : : average :
Item : Unit :Apr. :Mar. :Apr. :1928-29:1936-:1937-:1937-:1938-
S : 1938: 1939: 1939t to : 37 : 38 : 38 : 39
a : a : :1932-33: :


:Dollars:
Average price: tper 100:
Seven markets ........:pounds :
Chicago ............: do. a

U.S.average price re- :
ceived by farmers ....s do.

Prices of hog products, :
Chicago:
Loins, 8-10 lb. ....: do.
Hams, smoked, reg.
No.1, 10-12 lb. ....: do.
Bacon, smoked, No.l, :
dry cured, 6-8 lb. .: do.
Lard, refined,
H.W.tubs ...........: do.

Average price of No,3 : Cents
Yellow corn,Chicago ..:per Ib.:

Hog-corn price ratio: 2/:
Chicago ...............Bushel
North Central States..: do.

Proportion of packing
sows in total packer a
and shipper purchases,:
seven markets 3/ ,...:Percent:

Average weight at seven :
markets .............:Pound


8.09 7,23 6.73
8.28 7.43 6.92


6.99


7.77 7.10 6.57 6.48



19.92 17.34 17.10 17.07

25.53 22.50 21.75 20.31

25.94 21.70 20.62 23.71

9.35 7.52 7.28 9.68


59 48 49 62 115 57 58 48


14.1 15.6 14.2 11.6
16.8 18.4 16.7 12.9




3.0 4.0 5.0 y


10.28 8.33
10.40 8.47


8.42 7.32
8.60 7.45


9.66 8.07 8.15 7.04



22.28 19.68 18.37 16.45

24.65 23.56 23.70 21,77

28.58 26.99 28.11 21.91


13.13 9.90 10.37


7.84


9.2 14.8 14.8 15.5
9.4 17.6 17.6 18.2




15.0 13.0 6.0 6.0


231 246 237 239


242 246


248 /


SNot available.
Number of bushels of corn equivalent
hogs.
/ Monthly figures computed from weekly


in value to 100 pounds of live


averages.


HS-31




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