The hog situation

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Material Information

Title:
The hog situation
Physical Description:
32 no. : ; 28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Swine -- Marketing -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
HS-1 (Nov. 1936)-HS-32 (June 1939).
General Note:
Title from caption.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
oclc - 04752171
ocm04752171
Classification:
lcc - HD9435.U5 A25
System ID:
AA00011234:00029

Related Items

Preceded by:
World hog and pork prospects
Succeeded by:
Beef cattle situation
Succeeded by:
Sheep and lamb situation
Succeeded by:
Livestock situation


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Full Text
UNITED STATES DEPALrTt'E!iT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

HS-30 April 18, 1939.
*---- li L '-r '-1 P _-_----- -------------------------
8 -THE HOG SITUATION


1\ DEPOSI Summary

e seasonal increase in hog marketing now in progress probably will

continue into June, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Market-

ings of fall pigs are expected to get underway in large volume in the next few

weeks; the 1938 fall pig crop was 18 percent larger than the 1937 fall crop.

The extent of the seasonal reduction in marketing after mid-summer will de-

pend partly upon the number of sows retained for fall farrow and also upon

whether a large number of spring pigs reach market weights by August as was

the case last year.

Consumer demand for hog products thus far in 1939 has been stronger

than in the early months of 1938. For the entire year 1939 demand is expected

to be stronger than in 1938, but any improvement from present levels which may

occur probably will not be great.

Prices of hogs declined during March chiefly because of the increase

in hog marketing. For the week ended April 8 the average price of butcher

hogs at Chicago was about $7.10 compared with $8,05 the last week in February.

In early April last year, the weekly average price of butcher hogs at Chicago

was about $8.60.

The ratio of hog prices to corn prices has been much above average for

18 consecutive months. Except for a period of 22 months in 1921 and 1922, the

past year and a half is the longest period during the last 35 years in which

the ratio has been maintained at such a high level. In 1921 and 1922, when

hog prices were high in relation to corn prices, a very marked increase in hog





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HS-50


production followed. Inspected hrog slaughter increased about 35 percent from

1921 through 1923. The increase of about 15 percent in the 1938 pig crop over

that of 1937 and the prospective large increase in the 1939 spring pig crop

indicates that the increase in hog slaughter from 1937 through 1940 may be as

large as that which occurred from 1921 through 1923.


REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

BACYKGRU i!D.- Chiefly because of the rather large increase
in hog marketing, the price of butcher hogs at Chicago de-
clined frmrr about $9.65 in late July to about $7.15 in mid-
December 1938. Prices were about steady in late December
and early January, but rose moderately during late January
and February, as marketing were seasonally reduced.

Hog prices decline in March

Prices of hogs declined during March largely because of the increase
in hog marketing. For the week ended April 8, the average price of butcher
hogs (barrows and gilts) at Chicago was about $7.10 compared with $8.05 the
last week of Fcbru-3ry. Prices in early April were at the lowest level reached
thus far in the current marketing year, and also were lower than at any time
since late 1974.

Hog marketing increase in March

Inspected hog slaughter in March,' totaling 3,229,000 head, was about
300,000 head larger than in February and it was about 600,000 head larger than
in March last year. Marketings in the past month included some fall pigs,
but with weights continuing relatively heavy the bulk of the marketing
probably was old hogs.

In the first half of the present marketing year, which began last
October, inspected hog sl~-ghter totaled 21,733,000 head, or about 2.1 million
head larger than in the first half of the 19.:.7-38 marketing year. The increase
in sla'ught.:r this year over last reflects chiefly the increase in the 1938
spring pil crop over that of 1?77. The atv-ri.ge weight of hogs thus far in
the current marketing year has been about the same as a year earlier and
heavier than average.

Stocks of porh reduced in .March

Total storage holelrcz of pork on April 1 were about 4 percent less
than on March 1 or on April 1 last year. April 1 stocks of pFrl: were con-
siderably Icss than average and were the second smallest for that di.te in the
24 years of record. Stocks of lard on April I were slightly larger than on
March 1, and they were about the same as the 1933-37 April 1 average stocks.






HS-30


At the beginning .of April total stocks of pork and lard were only slight-
ly smaller than 'a year earlier. During the late spring and summer, the move-
ment of hog products .out of storage usually is greater than the movement of
products into storage. Since stoclls :werereelatively small at the end of the
summer of 1938, the net out-of-storage movement this summer probably will be
no larger than that of last summer. Consequently, the increase over a year
earlier in the Quantity of pork and lard *avail.ale for. domestic consumption
and export during the remainder of the current marketing year will reflect
chiefly the increase in slaughter supplies of'hogs in this period over the
corresponding period of last year. .-

Storage holdings of pork and lard on the first of the month,
specified months, average 1933-37, 1937-38 and 1938-39

5 :. -year average 8 938- 39
MoAI th -.- .* :.* 1955-57 : 1937-38 1938" -39
MOx l 1933-37 .
: Pork : Lard :Pork :Lard :Pork :Lard
: Mil.1lb. dil. b. Mil. b. Mil. b. Mil. lb. Mil.. lb.

Oct. 415 108 283 73 277 90
Dec. 425 80 307 34 .299 74
Feb. 630 118 554 99 526 132
Mar. : 647 125 583 117 542 125
Apr. : 620 127 544 121 1/ 522 1/ 129

1/ Preliminary.

Pork and lard exports continue larger than a year earlier

Exports of both pork and lard in February were substantially larger than
a year earlier, as they were in January. The February movement, however, was
slightly smaller than that for January. Exports of pork totaled 8.2 million
pounds in February arid were the largest for the month since 1934. Lard 'exports,
totaling' 24.5 million pounds, were about 8 million pounds larger than'i Febru-
ary last year and also were the largest for the month since 1934.

A large part of the increase in exports of lard in January and February
over year earlier was in the shipments to Great Britain. The increase in ex-
ports reflects not only the larger domestic production this year, but also the'
remocjl of the British duty of 10 percent ad valorem on lard under the trade
agreement recently conclud,:d by the United States and Great Britain. Exports
of lard to Cuba in -February.were about 1.2 million pounds larger than in Febru-
ary last year.

Pork imports in February, totaling 4.1 million pounds, were larger than
those of February last year, but were Smaller than the imports of most'other
months of 1938.

OUTLOOK

The outlook for hogs has not been changed to any extent during the past
month. Briefly summarized, the important points given in the March issue of
The Hog Situation were as follows:


- 3--







1, On the basis of breeding intentions reported by farmers last Decem-
ber, and feed and weather conditions since December, it is expected that the
1939 spring pig crop will be considerably larger than the spring crop of 1938.
If feed crop production is near average this year, the 1939 fall pig crop also
will be larger than that of last year.

2. It is not unlikely that the total pig crop (spring and fall combined)
in 1939 will be about 80 million head, or about the same as the average for the
5 years before the 1934 drought. Such a pig crop this year would result in an
inspected hog slaughter in the 1939-40 marketing year, beginning next October,
of more than 45 million head. This would be the largest slaughter since 1932-33
arnd would be about the same as the 1929-33 average.

3. Hog slaughter during the remainder of the present marketing year, up
to October 1, 1939, probably will continue much larger than a year earlier. In-
spected slaughter this year, 1938-39, is expected to total about 40 million
head. As slaughter in the first half (October-March) of the year was nearly 22
million head, slaughter in the last half of the year is likely to be about 18
million head, cor.pared with about 15 million head in the last half of 1937-38.

Increase in rmarketirgs to continue into June

The seasonal increase in hog marketir.gs now in progress probably will con-
tinue into June, as the market movement of 1938 fall pigs gets underway in large
vol umE. The extent of the seasonal reduction in marketing after mid-summer
will depend partly upon the number of sows retained for fall farrow and also up-
on whether a large number of spring pigs reach market weights and finish by Au-
gust, as was the case last year.

"erand for hog products stronger than a year earlier

Consumer demand for hog products in both January and February was some-
what stronger than a year earlier, as measured by changes in the quantities
taken and prices paid by consumers. In recent weeks, however, there have been
some indications that the improvement in demand, which got underway last summer,
was being checked. In view of the probability that incomes of consumers in 1939
will be greater than in 1939, it is expected that consumer d-mand for hog prod-
ucts for the entire year will be stronger than last year. But any further im-
provement in demand from present levels which may occur probably will not be
gre at.

HFg-f.corn price ratio favorable for increase in hog production

Total stocks of corn on farms on April 1 were about 130 million bushels
larger than a year earlier and were the largest April 1 stocks in the 13 years
of record. If corn production this year is near average, total corn supplies
for 1939-40 will be at least as large as supplies in the present year. Although
the trend in hog prices has been daownward since last summer, corn prices also
have declined. Thus the relation of hog prices to corn prices has not changed
much.

The ratio of hog prices to corn prices has been much above average for
18 consecutive months. Except for a period of 22 months in 1921 and 1922, the



ii.


HS-30


- 4 -







past year and a half is the longest period in which the ratioihas continued so
high during the last 35 years, at least. In 1921 and 1922, when hog prices were
high in relation to corn prices, a very marked increase in hog production got
underway. Inspected hog slaughter increased about 35 percent from 1921 through
1923. The increase of about 15 percent in the 1938 pig crop over that of 1937
and the prospective 1-- T increase in the 1939 spring pig crop indicates that
the increase in hog F7l -ughter from 1937 through 1940 may be as large as that
which occurred from 1921 through 19.3.

Supplies of hogs and hog products, specified periods


: : : Oct. Sept. : Oct. Feb.
: : ::Average: :
Item : Unit :Feb. :Jan. :Feb. :1928-29:1936- :1937- :1937- :1938-
: :1938 :1939 :1939 : to : 37 : 38 : 38 :39
: : : : :1932-33::::

Hog slaughter under
Federal inspection:
Number : Thou-
slaughtered 1/ : sands :2,833 4,043 2,890 46,363 34,142 34,580 16,998 18,504
Live weight:
Average .......... :Pound : 228 235 230 231 221 234 229 228
Total ............:Mil.lb.: 647 951 666 10,723 7,538 8,089 3,888 4,225
Dressed weight:
Average ..........:Pound : 172 177 174 175 164 175 172 171
Total ............ :Mil.lb.: 495 715 501 8,069 5,586 6,046 2,909 3,156
Yield of lard
per 100 pounds
live weight of
hogs ..............:Pound : 12.8 14.0 13.6 15.2 10.9 12.4 11. 13.1
Production of
lard ..............:Mil.lb.: 83 133 90 1,630 833 1,002 465 553
Apparent cons.:
Pork, including
lard 2/...........: do : 419 561 462 7,171 5,601 5,795 2,459 2,722
Lard ............: do : 49 79 72 961 756 777 325 408
Exports: 3/
Pork .............: do : 7 8 8 211 59 89 33 43
Lard ..............: do : 16 29 24 657 107 208 96 109
Imports of pork 3/...: do : 3 4 4 6 72 57 23 20
Proportion of sows in:
inspected
slaughter 4/....... :Percent: 45.9 43.4 44.4 51.2 51.1 49.9 47.2 44.3

I/ Bureau of Animal Industry.
2/ Represents apparent disappearance of federally inspected pork plus unrendered
hog fats.
3/ United States Department of Commerce. Pork includes bacon, hams and shoulders,
and fresh, canned, and pickled pork. Lard includes neutral lard.
4/ Includes gilts.


HS-30


- 5 -




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

1111111111111 1 1 II111111111111 1111111ii 1111ll
6 3 1262 08861 7450


Frircs :f hogs 'snd hog products, specified periods


Itcmr : Unit : L r.:
:1938:

:Dollars:
Average pri' : :pFr 100:
Se'.rn Ar-r t ........ :cur.ds : 8.90
Chicago: ..............: do 9.12

U.S.averaig, rrice re-
ceived Ky f..rr.rrs ....: d. : 8.35

Prices -f hE. ,r:-u.cts,
Chic;ce:
L:ins, 6-10 Ib. ...: d : 19.63
HL;rs,:..:i'-ed, r':. :
li .1,10-12 Ib. .... do : 23.65
B.cmr., sm'ked, Nio.1
dry curcd,6-8 lb. .: d : 2?.P5
L.a-rd, r: fir.. ,
H.'.1.tub F .. ...... : do : 9.95

Av,:-ra c rrice: o'f f.:. 3 : C'rts
YeI .*.: ..:rr.,ChiccLgo...:pcr lb.: 59,

Hg-co:rn rricc r-tio: 2/:
Chlitc ............ Pur: : 15.8
i;.rt Ci--rtr-1 St'.t.s ..: 1. : 19.0

Fr:.:rti:r :.f z:- .king
Vr:,s in t t-,l FLucker
.-rn shipr:'r purchasses,
srven m::.rkts 3' .....:Percent: 3.0
Aver e ieig-!t t:.t
r.-- -r. ,. r.-:-ts ........ :Pcund : 243



2' !u'r.ter :f b.ihcls :f crn equivalent
.* 1.:r.th1y fi -:ir .s c':r.rP:t d fr nm weekly


: : Oct.-Sept. : Oct.-Mar.
:Average: : :
Feb.: :ar.:1928-29:1936-: 1937-:1937-:1938-
1939: 1939: tn : 37 : 38 : 38 : 39
::1932-33: : : s


7.63 7.23
7.77 7.43


1/ 10.28
6799 10.49


7.21 7.10 6.48 9.66



17.50 17.34 17.07 22.28

22.12 22.50 20.31 24.65

2?.12 21.70 23.71 28.58

7.54 7.52 9.68 13.13


8.33 8.47 7.41
8.47 8.66 7.54


8.07 8.21 7.12



19.68 18.21 16.34

23.56 23.73 21.77

26.99 28.48 22.12

9.90 10.54 7.93


46 48 62 115 57 58 48


16.2 15.6 11.6 9.2 14.8 14.9
18.8 18.4 12.9 9.4 17.6 17.8


4.0 4.0 1l/

245 246 I/


in vi'lue to 100 pounds of
averages.


15.7
18.4


15.0 13.0 6.0 6.0


246 237


237


live hogs.


HS-30


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