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U:TTED STATES D "'. U!':i' T OF .,.G I .' uF'L
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
x'.-i. s i rn it on
HS-23 September 19, 1938
- -- -
T H E H OG S IT U AT I 0 N
L..--- ," Surnary
Little change has occurred during the past 2 months in the hog
outlook, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics reports. Market supplies
of hogs in the cor.ing marketing year, which begins October 1, will be
materially larger than in the present season. It is expected, however,
that consumer demand for hog products in 1'380-39 will average stronger
than in 1937-30. Consumer demand may be weaker than a year earlier in
the early months of the new marketing season, but probably will improve
as the year progresses. Storage demand for :iog products in the coming
fall and winter also may be better than a 'uar earlier. A fairly large
seasonal increase in hog marketing is expected during the next 3 or 4 months,
After declining fairly sharply in early August, hog prices were
steady during the remainder of that month and then rose moderately in early
September. For the week ended Septombor 10, the average price of butcher
hogs at .Chicago was nearly $9 compared with $8.55 in mid-August and
$9.65 in mid-July. The drop in prices in early August was partly the result
of the contra-seasonal increase in hog marketing from July to August.
IriLi,,-ct'..d hog laughLtor in August was about 9 percent larger than
in July and about 55 percent larger than a year earlier. This was only the
second time in the past 30 years that August slaughter exceeded that of
July. The larger slaughter in ..ug.ust than in July apparently was chiefly
the result of the unusually large movement of spring pigs in J-. last month.
In most years the market movement of spring pigs does not b come large
until late September or early October.
REVI-., OF R.Ci:" DVE:::?:'l...'S
BACKGROUND.- Hog prices dropped sharply in the first
quarter of the present marketing year, which began last
October, as a result of a lar :' seasonal increase in
hog marketing and marked weakness in consumer demand.
Since January the weekly average price of hogs at
Chicago has fluctuated between $7.60 and $9.50. From
late January to early March prices advanced somewhat and
then tronded downward until late May. From late May to
mid-July prices again advanced, but declined fairly
sharply in late July and early A'-. ist. Tli. number of
hogs marketed in the current marketing year, which ends
September 30, probably will be about the same as a c. r
earlier, but average ,:eiChts have boon considerably
heavier this year. H: prices have been considerably
lower than a year earlier in most r:.nths of the present
marketing year, largely because consumer dc.:and for hog
Srodu.cts has been much weaker than in 19' --37.
H'.- ri*L:.-_ -Qtron-thon in earlyy Sopt ember
dfter decii::iz,; fairly sharply in early ..u 'ist, prices of h- -s were
steady during the rer.uinder of that month and then rose moderately in early
September. In nid-July the weekly average price of butcher '.c s at
C.. .go was about $9.65, but by rid-August it was about "'.55.- cr the
week ended S. tcmbcr 10, ho'.:eovr, it had advanced to about $3.l. The
weakness in '.i. prices in the first half of August w;as due partly to t he
contra-seasonal increase, in hog e::arketi:. and to the fact that demand for
pork oently :was restricted by unusually high t-..; creatures in many parts
-' the country.
August hog marketing much larger than a year earlier and larger than in July
Inspected hog slaughter in August totaling 2,467,000 head, was
9 percent larger than in July and about 55 percent larger than in August
last year. Only one other time (1932) in the past 30 years has sl:.J ht.er
in August exceeded that of July. The incro:.se in hog marketing from
July through August this year probably was due chiefly to the larger than
usual movement of spring pigs in August this year. As d reflection of this
early movement of spring pigs average weights of hogs were reduced somewhat
at the leading markets during August. Thus far this summer, however,
average weights of hogs have been heavier than for several years, reflecting
the high hog-corn price ratio and the abundant supplies of feed.
Prices of fresh pork and lard weaken in earl;, A'u t
After advancing in most of July, wholesale prices of fresh pork
declined in Bh6 first half of August, Ii late August and early September
fresh pork prices again advanced. :Wholesale prices of cured pork were steady
to higher during .August, but lard prices cakened somewhat during the month,
Prices of fresh: crk' and lard in late August were somewhat lower than in
late July, just as in t he case of hno prices. Prices of cured pork in late
August, however, were somewhat higher than in late July.
Pork and lard stocks reduced in August
Stocks of both pork and lard decreased seasonally from August 1 to
September 1. Stocks of pork at the beginning of Scpteibcr, totaling
334 million pounds, were the second smallest for that timo of year on record.
They were 33 million pounds smaller than on September 1 l:st year and only
9 million pounds larger than record small stocks reported on September 1,1935,
Storage holdings of lard on September 1 totaled about 117 million pounds,
which was slightly smaller than a year earlier.
Storage holdings of pork and lard n t he first of the
month, specified months
: 5-year average :
Month :1929-30 to 1933-34: 1 7 17-
: Pork Lard : Por Lard : Pork Lard
: Mil.lb Mil.1b, M1il.1lb, :il.lb, Mil,1lb. li11.1b,
Oct. ........: 530 109 362 102 283 73
Jan. ........: 565 72 667 146 399 54
Apr. ........: 731 105 756 217 544 121
Aug. ........ 692 156 467 157 379 124
Sept. .......: 605 135 368 118 1/334 1/117
Pork exports increase in July; lard exports reduced
Exports of pork in July cf about 9.3 million pounds were nearly
1 million pounds larger than in Juno and about 4 million pounds larger
than in the corresponding month last year. Most of the increase in July
as conrl.:rod with a year earlier-was in shipments of cured pork. Lard
exports in July totaling 12.9 million pounds wore more than 4 million
pounds loss than in June, but they wore about 5 million pounds larger
than in July last year. Imports of pork in Juno totaled 4.7 million
pounds, slightly less than in June and nearly 3 million pounds less than
in July 1937.
Tho pros; ects for supplies of, and demand for, hogs in the
coming marketing year have not changed much in tic past 2 months. Consequently,
the following statement is mostly a brief summary of the material given on
the Outlook in the July and August issues of the Hog Situation.
(1) L r r '. 1:ti _ng :..pcL ir. P'u-
Supplies of hogs for -uarket in the nov: m rketing year,
beginiriinl October 1, 1938, will bo materially larger than in
1937-38 in view of the 13 :.r..rc nt larger spring pig crop in
1938 than in 1937 and the prospects for a considerable
increase in the 1938 fall pig crop.
(2) Consumer demand in 1938-39 cxp ctod to be stronger
It is probable that consumer demand for ::oats for the
year 1938-39 will :iv-:..e stronger than in 1937-38, but in
the early months of 1938-39 it may be weaker than a year
earlier and then improve as the year progresses. Storage
and export demand for ho7 products next winter nay be bettor
than a year car icr.
(3 ) c '.j:r-.'. ch -. i,. h. 1:...rl: *' i .- i P 1' .-
A fairly larc seasonal increase in h.: :. market :. is
expected durir.- the next 3 or 4 :months. T.-: porconttig
increase in slaughter supplies fro:. A:i -ust thr. i-': Docc:.bor,
however, r.ay be loss thr-n that of a yer earlier. In the
fall and early winter of 1938-39 there w as a marked ,;k:ocss
in both ccnsumor and storage de.nand for h' r: 'ucts, but it
is cx .cted that consumer d.si.-.n1 in the next few months will
i-i:ro.,.: somewhat fro::: present levels.
In most years when feed supplies have been abundant
and the hou-corn price ratio high, market supplies of hogs
in the. first quarter (October-December) of the marketing
year have represented a relatively small proportion of the
yearly total. The present year, 1937-33, was an im-ortant
exception. There are indic-tions, however, that 193.-39
will not be similar in this respect to 1937-30. It may well
be that hog marketinis in the second quarter of next year
(January-March) will be larger than in the first quarter
(October-December). Such a development probably would cause
the seasonal decrease in hog marketing in the late winter
and early spring of 1939 to be less than usual.
(4) Further _increaseir ho; production in 1539 expected
The rather marked upi..ing in hog production this year
reflects the present low level of production in many areas
as well as the abundant food supplies and the fact that hog
prices in the past year have boon high in rtlati6b'to feed
prices. Although feed crcp prospects and other conditions
still indicate that there will be a further l-rg': increase
ir hog production in 1939, the increase in production in the
Corn Belt area west of the Misscuri River may be limited
by the short corn crop in that area this year.
Total supplies of food grains (including production
and carry-over) in the 1938-39 feeding season will be
slightly lr,_er than in 1937-30, but they will not be so
large as scored probable earlier in the summer. Corn crop
prospects deteriorated gr-etly in Nebraska, South Dakota
and Kansas during August as a result of cdr-iuht and
grasshopper damrrge. In all three of those States the
indicated corn production for 1933, on the basis of
September 1 conditions, was much less than average. Corn
production in these States has been severely curtailed by
drought in other recent years, and hog production is at a
very low level. The short corn crop this year in the area
mentioned above may tend to limit the increase in the
number of pigs raised in 1939 in this area. In most other
regions corn production this year is nearly as largo as
last year and feed supplies will be abundant. The hog-corn
price ratio also is expected to continue favorable for
hog production. Consequently, for the country as a whole
it is expected that the number of .i raised in 1939 will
be considerably larger than in 1938.
Prices of hogs and hog products, specified periods
Oct.-Sept. : Oct.-Au .
:1938 : to : 36 : 37 : 37 : 38
Seven markets .......
: do. :11.77
9.64 10.28 10.20
9.90 10.49 10.41
U. S. average price
received by farmers...: do.
Prices of hog products,:
Loins, 8-10 lb. ..: do.
10-12 lb. .........: do.
dry cured, 6-8 lb. :do.
H. W. tubs ........: do.
:11.46 8.56 7.31
:29.00 23.40 21.04
:13.00 9.68 8.97
6.48 9.15 9.66 9.57 8.07
17.07 21.21 22.29 21.90 19.45
20.31 26.38 24.65 24.37 23.54
23.71 30.86 28.58 28.09 27.15
9.68 12.65 13.13 13.14 9.?9
.'.. r'e price of No.3 : Cents
Yellow corn,Chicago...:por lb,: 104
Hog-corn pricu ratio:2/:
C:.ic o ... ......... :Bushel :11.3
North Central States..: do. :11.9
59 54 62 74 115 116 58
11.6 14.1 9.2 9.1 14.7
12.9 15.8 9.5 9.2 17.5
Proportion of packing
sows in total .:c':er
and shipper purchases,:
seven markets 3/..... Percent:36.0 33.0 33.0
.v. r_,e ',: .: ic it at
seven markets ........:Pound : 256 272 264
1/ Not avail able.
2/ Number of bushels of corn equivalent in valu
3/ ;ionthly figures computed from weekly aver:gdoe.
I/ 16.0 15.0 14.0 12.0
1/ 241 231 230 :46
to 100 pounds cf live :ogs.
~ _~1~1~~~ _~_I___
Supplies of hogs and hog products, specified. periods
: : : : Oct. Sept. : Oct.- July
S : :Average:
:July :June :July :1928-29:1935- : 1936-: 1936-: 1937-
:1937 :1938 :1938 : to : 36 : 37 : 37 : 36
:: : :1932-33:
Average ....: Pound
Total .......: :Mil.lb.:
AverTir .....: Pound
Total ........ ril .b.:
Yield of lard :
per 100 pounds:
live weight of:
hogs .......: Pound :
Production of :
lard ......... :il.lb.:
lard 2/ ....:
Lard .........: do.
Pork ..........: do. :
Lard ...,....: do. :
Imports of pork 3/: do. :
131 139 195
297 477 437
46,363 31,022 34,142 30,520 29,442
10.9 11.2 12.4
42 80 73 1,630 870 833 755 652
431 487 461 7,171 5,124 5,601 4,728 4,802
62 61 62 961 712 756 609 623
5 3 9 211 69 59 51 76
8 17 13 657 101 107 90 178
a 5 5 6 32 72 59 49
Proportion of sows :
slaughter 4....:Percent: 61.0
55.8 60.4 51.2 51.9
51.1 50.4 49.1
/' Bur.i-u of Animal Industry.
2/ Represents apparent disappearance of federally inspectrd pork plus unrondorod
/ United Statos Department of Commerce. Pork includes bacon, hams and shoulders,
and fresh, canneel, aiid pickled pork. Lard includes neutral lard.
,/ Includes gilts.
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
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