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UNITED ST:!JE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricl3tural Economics
HS-12 \ October 19, 1937
THE HOG S I T U A T IO
Slaughter supplies of hogs in the first 6 months of the present hog
marketing year (October 1937-March 1938) probably will be smaller than
those of a year earlier, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics reports.
Demand for hog products for storage, and consumer demand for meats in this
period, however, are expected to be somewhat weaker than they were in the
fall and winter of 1936-37. Hence hog prices in the fall and winter months
of the 1937-38 marketing year probably will average little, if any, higher
than those of the corresponding period of 1936-37.
The seasonal decline in hog prices now under way probably will
continue through the fall months. Hogs will be fed to heavier weights this
marketing year than last because of the more plentiful feed grain supplies,
and marketing of the greater part of 1937 sprir,- pigs are expected to
occur somewhat later than usual.
For 1937-38 as a whole (October 1937-September 1938) the number of
hogs slaughtered under Federal inspection is expected to be somewhat smaller
than in 1936-37, when the total was 34.1 million head. The total live weight
of hogs slaughtered, however, probably will be about the same as a year
earlier because of the increase expected in average -.eights of hogs marketed.
With a hog-corn price ratio now above average, the number of pigs raise
in 1938 will be considerably larger than in 1937. This increase in the pig
crop of 1938, however, will not be reflected in increased hog slaughter until
late 1938 cr 1'39.
RL.' I V; O F .:: ', D .'TL: MENTS
BACKGRO'.1'!D In the marketing year from October
1936 to September 1937 h.. prices advanced from
late November to early January, remained fairly
steady from February to early April, but advanced
in May and again in July and early August. In
mid-Au- !at hog prices reached the highest level
since 1926, but such prices declined somewhat in
late Au.. ict and September. Although hog prices
were relatively high in 1936-37, corn prices were
relatively hi-hr; and the hog-corn price ratio
was generally unfavorable to increased hog
production. The 1937 spring pig crop was 7 per-
cent smaller than that of 1936, chiefly because
of the short supplies and high prices of feed
Prices decline further in Soptember and e arly October
Hog prices, after reaching the highest level since 1926 in mid-August
when slaughter supplies were unusually small, declined sharply in late
August and early September. Some recovery in prices was made in the second nnd
third weeks of Septcmbcr, but another sharp decline occurred in early
October. Hog prices at Chicago averaged $11.37 per 100 p:.uilis in Septomber,
which was 40 cents below the August average but was nearly $1.50 higher than
the September average a year earlier. The decline in prices since mid-August
was largely a result of a rather marked increase in market supplies of hos
and a continued largo out-of-storage movement of perk and lard.
Inspected hog slaughter in September, totaling 2,033,000 head, was 28
percent larger than the very small slaughter in August, but was about 15 per-
cent smaller than that of a year earlier. The l:-r-cr h-r slaughter in
3S,.tembor than in August probably was due partly to market .-i of hogs
finished on new crop feeds that normally would have been marketed earlier in
the suuicmr, and to fairly large supplies of spring farro~-;cd pi. With
feeding of new crop corn and small grains in many sections, hogs marketed in
late Septueber and rly October showed considerable improvement in finish
compared with those marketed in the su,:=.or months.
Slrughtcr supplies in 1936-37 larcr than in 1935-36
Inspected h clu -.ih.iter in the 1936-37 hog markotir.: year ended
September 30 totaled 34,142,:'3 head compared with 31,022,000 head in the
previous year and 30,680,000 head 2 years earlier. H-- slaughter in 1936-37,
however, was still much smaller than slau-,-htor in the post-war years prior to
the 1934 ., ,:, .t. The avor,;, yearly hog sl." iter under Fcd.ral irspctcion
for the 5 years from lI:'-29 to 193.'-33 totaled 46,363,000 head,
Average live weights of hogs slaughtered in 1936-37 were considerably
lighter than those of a year earlier when feed grain supplies were more
plentiful, andiere also much lighter than average. Because of the increase
in numbers, the total live w-ight of hogs slaughtered under Federal inspection
was somewhat larger than that of a year earlier, and was considerably laOrer
than that of 2 year earlier, but was still much below average.
Heavy out -of-storl-w.u movement of pork and lard continued
The heavy out-of-storage movement of porl: and lard which has been
under way since early summer continued in September. On Occober 1 storage
holdings of pork wore 23 percent smaller than on Septer.ber 1, and, with
the exception of 1935, were the smallest for October 1 on record. Storage
holdings of lard on October 1 wore 39 percent smaller than a conth earlier.
The decrease in lard stocks during September was some-hat greater than average.
Storage holdings of pork and lard on October 1, average 1930-34,
annual 1935-37, and Septe:iber 1, 1937
SOct. 1 : : Oct. 1,
Itcm average : Oct.l,:Oct. 1,.Spt.l,: 1937
:1930-34 : 1935 :196 : 1937 : 1/
S1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Frozen ................: 102,239 51,013 76,590 91,024 55,125
Dry salt, cured and in:
process of cure .....: 92,764 41,042 65,484. 64,673 47,256
Pickled, cured and in :
process of cure ....: 320,042 185,550 2194534 211,698 180,906
Total ............: 515,045 277,605 361,60C 367,595 283,287
Lard ............... .....: 103,960 45,350 101,796 118,094 72,535
Wholesale prices of ho- products slightly lower in September
Wholesale prices of most hog ;.r -:i.cts averaged sli hitly lower in
September than in August, but such prices were still considerably higher than
those of a year earlier. The composite wholesale price of hog products at
New York averaged $23.89 per 100 pounds in September. This price was 6 cents
lower than that of a month earlier, but was $1.71 higher than that of a year
earlier. Wholesale prices of fresh pork at Chicago averaged lower in
September than in August, but wholesale prices of most cuts of cured pork and
of lard in September averaged about the same as or slightly higher than a
month earlier. Wholesale prices of fresh pork advanced sharply in the first
half of September after declining in late August, but by the end of
September most of the gain in such prices was lost.
Exports of hog products reduced slightly in August
Exports of lard in August, totaling 7.2 million pounds,were somewhat
smaller than in July when 7,8 million pounds were exported, but were 1.1
million pounds, or about 18 percent, larger than exports of lard in August
1936. Total lard exports in the first 11 months of the 1936-37 hog marketing
year amounted to 96 million pounds, which was about 3 million pounds larger
than exports in the corresponding period a year earlier but was considerably
smaller than in other recent years. E:.ports of lard to the United Kingdom
and Germany in the first 11 months of 1936-37 were the smallest in many yearc..
Exports of lard to Cuba in this period, however, were the iarst in any
year since 1930-31.
Exports of pork in August totaled 4.6 million pounds compared with
5.4 million pounds a month earlier and 6.1 million pounds a year earlier.
In the first 11 months of 1936-37 pork exports, totaling 55 million pounds,
wore somewhat smaller than those of a year earlier and were considerably
smaller than the average for earlier years. The decrease in exports of -or:
and lard since 1934 has been the result chiefly of the marked reduction in
hog slaughter supplies and of the relatively hi-h level of prices for i.h.3
and hog products in this country.
Ir.,ort I of pork also reduced in August
Imports of pork totaled about 7 million pounds in A.ugust cc.. ,.r-d with
8 million pounds a month earlier and 4 million pounds a year earlier. In
the first 11 months of the 1936-37 hog marketing year imports of pork, totaling
66 million pounds, uxce d..1 exports by about 11 million pounds. A-!.,
pork imports wore l-.r-.r than in 1.35-36, the increase was from a very low
level. Total imports of .rk are still very small in relation to domestic
production, the i;1..rts of pork and live hogs combined in the first 11 months
of 1936-37 amountii.: to about 2 porcont of inrs.,ctod hcg sEan.r'. or in the
BACKGROUND.- In recent issues of this report the
following prospects for hog slaughter supplies and
prices in 1937-38 were indicated:
(1) The number of hogs to be marketed
from October 1937 through April 1938 will be somewhat
smaller than in the same period of 1936-37.
(2) Average weights of hogs marketed in
1937-38 are expected to be heavier than in 1936-37,
and perhaps will be heavier than average.
(3) The seasonal distribution of hog
marketings in 1937-38 probably will be much different
from that of 1936-37. Slaughter from October through
December 1937 will comprise a relatively siall prc-
pt1tion of the yearly total and also of the total for
the first half of the year. Slaughter from January
through March 1938 is likely to be somewhat larger
than in the preceding 3 months.
(4) Hog prices in the fall and winter months
of 1937-38 probably will average as high as in the same
period of 1936-37; but with delayed marketing of
1937 spring pigs, a smaller than average seasonal
advance in hog prices is to be expected after January
Further seasonal decline in hog prices ex-ected
The seasonal decline in hog prices which is now under way is expected
to continue throughout the fall months as narketings of spring pigs increase.
Although hog slaughter in the first half of the 1937-30 marketing year
probably will be somewhat smaller than in the corresponding period a year
earlier, hog prices this fall and winter are likely to average nc higher than
those of a year earlier. The demand for hog products for storage in the
next few months probably will not be so favorable as it was a year earlier,
when a sharp reduction in slaughter supplies was indicated for the spring and
summer months. Consumer demand for hog products in the next 6 months,
moreover, may be somewhat weaker than that of a year earlier if recent declines
in business activity are continued.
Supplies to continue below 1936-37 in next 6 months
Present indications are that the combined spring and fall pig crop of
1937 will be smaller than that of 1936, when the number of pigs saved amounted
to about 65,651,000 head. As a result, the number of hogs that will be
marketed in the 1937-38 hog marketing year (October-September) probably will
be somewhat smaller than in 1936-37, when inspected hog slaughter totaled
34,142,000 head. Insj>:ctcd hog slaughter in 1937-38, however, is likely to be
larger than that of 1934-35 and 1935-36. In each of these years inspected h:c
slaughter amounted to about 31 million head.
With much larger supplies of food grains this year than last, and
the hog-corn price ratio considerably above average, average weights of
hogs slaughtered in 1937-38 will be heavier than those of 1936-37.
The increase in average weights probably will about offset the reduction
in numbers -3li':htcred. Hence, the total live weight of hogs slaughtered
under Federal inspection in 1937-33 may be about the same as in 1936-37.
The foodiri. of hogs to heavier weights, however, will result in
a considerable change in the seasonal distribution of marketing.
Market supplies in the first 6 months of 1937-38 (October-March)
probably will represent a smaller than usual proportion of the total
for the marketing year, and hog marketing in this period are likely
to be considerably smaller than in the same period a year earlier.
Markotings in the second half of 1937-38 (April-Seotc nbor), on the other
hand, may be somewhat larger than in the corres;ontir- period a year
earlier. The number of pigs raised in 1938 will be considerably
larger than in 1937, but this increase will not be reflected in larger
slaughter supplies of hogs until late 1938 and 1939.
.,',plios of hcgs and neg products, specified periods
: : Oct. Supt. : Oct. Aug.
: : Averan: : : :
Item : Unit : Aug. :July :Aug. :1923-29:1934- :1935- :1935- :1936-
;:1936 :1937 :197 : to : 35 : 36 : 36 : 37
S_ : :1932-33: :
slaughter 1/..... : sands
A'v r:.,:c .......: pound :
Total .......... .: il1.b.:
Average .........: pound
Total ........... :i;il.!b.
Yield of lard per
100 pounds live
weight of hogs ....: pound
Production of Icrd..:mil.lb.:
Pork,incl.lard ..:mil lb.:
Lard ......... : :
Pork ...... ......: :
Lard ............: :
2,254 1,643 1,590 46,363
241 246 238 231
543 403 378 10,723
179 181 173 175
403 297 275 8,069
30,680 31,022 28,619 32,110
220 232 232 220
6,742 7,191 6,654 7,065
164 175 175 164
5,012 5,402 5,006 5,245
10.4 9.4 15.2 11.6 12.1 12.2 11.0
64 42 35 1,630
790 870 810 79C
422 429 404 7,171 5,102 5,124 4,668 5,134
65 62 66 961 730 712 652 677
Imports of pork 2/..: "
Proportion of sows :
slaughter /.......:percnt: 67.0
" 4 8 7 6
7 32 29 66
Bureau of Animal Industry.
United States Department of Commerco. Pork includes
bacon, hams and shoulders,
and fresh, canned and pickled pork. Lard includes nutr-.l lard.
3/ Includes gilts.
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IIIIIII3 1262 08861 74011111
3 1262 088617401
Prices of hcgs and hcg products, specified periods
Average price: :dolls.per:
Seven markets ......: 100 lb. :
Chicago ............: :
U. S. average price
received by farmers..:
Prices of hog products:
Loins, 8-10 lb ...:
No.l, 10-12 lb.....:
dry cure, 6-8 lb.
H. W. tubs ........
price of hog products:
New York ...........
Average price of No.3
Chicago ...........:per lb.
Hog-corn price ratio 2
States ........... .
Proportion of cl:ir, :
sows in total packer
and shippcr purchases:
seven markets 3/.... percent
Average weight at
seven markets ........: pound
1936 : 1937: 1937: to :
9.66 11.53 11.10
9.89 11.77 11.37
9.68 11.46 10.55
24.06 29.00 26.56
25.68 28.00 27.75
28.72 32.62 33.95
12.48 13.00 13.05
22.18 23.95 23.89
112 104 106
9.5 11.9 12.3 12.9
35 : 36
17.07 20.08 21.21
20.31 21.62 26.58
62 86 74 115
1/ Not available.
2/ Number of bushels of corn equivalent in value to 10iC pounds c.f live hc,3s.
.'/ ;.t;ly figures cjo:n, -tod from weekly av~r-r. c.
II II :
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