The hog situation

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Title:
The hog situation
Physical Description:
32 no. : ; 28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Swine -- Marketing -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
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serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
HS-1 (Nov. 1936)-HS-32 (June 1939).
General Note:
Title from caption.

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Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
oclc - 04752171
ocm04752171
Classification:
lcc - HD9435.U5 A25
System ID:
AA00011234:00009

Related Items

Preceded by:
World hog and pork prospects
Succeeded by:
Beef cattle situation
Succeeded by:
Sheep and lamb situation
Succeeded by:
Livestock situation


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UNITED STATES DEPATrMZ1T OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington
July 0, _.l".
HS-9. .. .


THE HO G S I TU T ION
c---------------------------------





This issue contains the significant facts relating
to the summer outlook for hogs. A separate report
on the Hog Outlook will not be issued this summer.



Summary


In the first half ofthe 1937-38 hog marketing year, beginning October

1, the number of hogs slaughtered will be smaller than in the corresponding

period of 1936-37. Only a small decrease is expected in the total live

wei.ht of hogs slaughtered in this period, however, since average weights

of hogs marketed are expected to be much heavier than a year earlier. With

prospects fairly favorable for a continuation of the present relatively

strong consumer demand for meats, hog prices next f-ll and winter probably

will average as high as, or perhaps higher than in the fall and winter of

1936-37.

If the corn crop is about equal to the 1928-32 average, as was

indicated' by the July 1 Crop Report, supplies of corn for hog feeding will

be larger than for several years. In view of short supplies of hogs in

prospect, the larger supply of corn probably will be reflected in a fairly

high hog-corn price ratio by late fall or early winter. This will encourage

producers to delay marketing of spring pigs in order to feed to heavier

weights. Consequently the proportion of this year's spring pigs marketed

before January 1 may be much smaller than usual, and the seasonal decline

in hog prices this fall may be less than average.





HS-9


Hog prices advanced sharply in M~iay, and in early July reached the

highest level in about 9 years. This d'vrnco in prices was brought about

chiefly by a marked decrease in hog markotings. With a smaller number of

hogs over 6 months of age on farms June 1 than a year earlier, market

supplies of hogs are likely to continue small during the remainder of the

summer. Hog prices, therefore, are expected to be well maintained in

late summer and early fall, and they may make some further advance.

The return of hog production to a normal level depends largely

upon corn production this year and in the next 2 or 3 years. If the 1937

corn crop proves to be as large as now indicated there will be a consider-

able increase in the number of pigs raised in 1938. This upward trend in

hog production will be stimulated if there is an average or better than

average corn crop in 1938. But even under continued favorable conditions

it does not seen likely that hog slau.-hter will reach the ivr:c-e of the

5 years preceding the 1934 drought before at least 1940.


REVIEW OF THE 1936-37 HOG rI..FJE.TIIJH YEAR


S':t .gihter supplies of hogs thus far in the current hog marketing year
have been somewhat larger than those of the prcc.diii, year but much smaller
than average. Consumer demand for hog products has improved materially and
demand conditions are new more favorable than for several years. Her prices
in 1936-37 averaged slightly higher than those of a year earlier, but as a
result of the short feed grain supplies caused by the severe drought last
year, corn prices this year have been hi:ghr than at any time in the past
16 years. As a consequence, the hog-corn price ratio has been unfavorable
for :rj production even th'i-u-i :.: prices have been high in relation to
those of other recent years.






HS-9


1936 2pi crops marketed early

The 1936 spring pig crop was 29 percent larger than that of 1935, and
the fall pig crop of last year was 6 percent larger than that of a year
earlier. Because bf the short supplies and high prices of feed grains, the
market movement of both the spring and fall pig crops began earlier than
usual. The seasonal increase in hog slaughter during October, November and
December 1936 was greater than average. And the total for those months
was much larger than that of a year earlier and represented a much l- -r-r
than average proportion of the total slaughter for the winter season. After
December, hog slaughter was reduced but it continued larger through April
than a year earlier. Marketings of f.ll pigs, which normally are in
largest volume in May and June, began in March this year and by the end of
April a much larger-than-usual proportion of such pigs had been marketed.



Inspected hog slaughter, specified periods


: 5-year
: average
Period :1929-30 to : 1934-35 : 1935-36 : 1936-37
: 1933-34
: ThrL,>:.ri 7n'i;us-.ni Thousands Thousands

Oct. Dec. .....: 12,607 12,054 7,432 12,464
Jan. Apr .....: 16,097 9,793 10,923 12,204
Oct. Apr. ......: 28,704 21,847 18,355 24,669
May June .....: 7,665 4,000 5,319 :-4,208
Oct. Sept. ....: 45,354 30,680 31,022 1/34,500

Bureau of Animal Industry.

_/ Tentative estimate.



Although many producers marketed fall pigs early, a considerable
number of such pigs apparently have been put on pasture and will be finished
on the new crop of small grains this summer and on the new crop of corn
this fall. As a result of this shift in the time of marketing, hog slaughter
in May was sharply reduced and continued small during June. For the 2 months,
May and June, inspected hog slaughter, except for 1935, was the smallest in
more than 40 years. From October through June, inspected slaughter totaled
28,877,000.head, an increase of 22 percent over that of the corresponding
9 months a year earlier.








Storage hcldingrs reduced since early spring

In: increase in storage stocks of nog products during the first 5
months of 1936-37 marketing year was much greater than average. On October
1, 1936, stocks of both pork and lard were below average, but by March 1,
1937, they were considerably above average and were much larger than those
on the c.:rr--_Zondir.. 'dates of either 1935 or 1936. March 1 stocks of pork
and lard exceeded those of a year earlier, by 448 million pounds. This
increase was equivalent to the products obtainable from 2,800,000 hogs of
aver-ce market weight. With a much smaller hog slaughter in May and June
than in the earlier months of the year, storage holdings of pork and lard
have been reduced materially since May 1. & decrease in pork stocks
usually occurs during the summer, but lard stocks normally increase until
August 1. July 1 stocks of pork, although larger than a year earlier, were
somewhat smaller than the 1929-33 average for that date. Stocks of lard
on July 1 were larger than average and much larger than on July 1 last year.


Storage holdings of pork and lard, specified periods


:5-year average :
: 1929- to : 1934-35 1935-36 : 1936-37
Date :1933-34____ _______
Pork Lard Pork Lard Pork Lard Pork Lard
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 ,0
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds r unis

Oct. 1 ....:530,300 109,087 524,220 128,054 277,605 45,350 361,608 101,7?6
Jan. 1 .....:565,206 71,671 687,563 118,107 326,777 52,718 666,891 145,8,09
Mar. 1 ....:758,930 102,796 '666,598 110,197 451,418 78,725 775,688 2:2,476
July 1 ....:713,460 149,526 445,307 84,680 435,130 106,7741/580 825 1/185,5t7


1_/ Preliminary.



I- prices reach 9-yoar high in July

S.g prices thus far in 19.--37 have folloiwd a course somewhat diff.rcnt
from the usual seasonal pattern. Instead of aeclininr from October through
c .~.uer as they usually do, prices wore fairly steady and they advanced
moderately in late Dccemrber and early January. Frc-i Fcbru iry thr.:ur-h April
thuer was little ch,:.: in prices, the Chicago weekly -aver:-e flucti~-ting
around thu $10 level during most of that peri-ed. In most years prices have
advanced in late February and March. In the last half of May .; prices
dvwnce1 ... -r ly; while ordinarily they decline during May. In June, prices
Idclineo.. :.. .tly, but durii.,- early July they advanced to a higher level than
in lrte May. i, average price .,f h! -; at Chicago for the first week of July
w-s -i.'-'- which was nearly 2 hi -h-.r than a year earlier and the highest
weekly iv r- o since .,tembor 1;i'5.




HS-9


In the first 9 months of the present marketing year (October through
Tune), hog prices averaged slightly higher than in the same period in 1935-36.
Sino- pla iht er supplies have been larger this year than a year earlier,
the higher average price reflects both a stronger storage demand and a
greater consumer demand this year than last. Total payments by packers for
hogs slaughtered under Federal inspection from October through June 1936-37
were about 17 percent greater than those of the corresponding months of
1935-36.

OUTLOOK

Prospective supplies in 1937-38

The number of hogs slaughtered during the coming marketing year, which
begins October 1, will be somewhat smaller than that of the current marketing
yeer but probably larger than in either of the 2 previous marketing years,
in which the number slaughtered under Federal inspection approximated
31 million head. Present indications point to an inspected slaughter in the
current marketing year, ending September 30, of about 34,500,000 head.
Inspected slaughter from the pig crops of 1930 to 1933, inclusive, hanged
from 43,500,000 to 47,100,000 head.

The extent to which hog slaughter in the 1937-38 marketing year will
be smaller than that of the current year will depend largely on the size of
the 1937 fall pig crop. The spring pig crop this year for the entire
country was estimated to be about 3 million less than the 1936 crop. This
is a decrease of 7 percent. In the Corn Belt States the decrease in numbers
was slightly greater than for the country as a whole, amounting to
3,157,000 head, or 10 percent.

As to the number of sows likely to be retained for farre.::in- in the
fall of 1937, the Bureau's June Pig Report indicated a probable reduction of
slightly moreihan 3 percent from the number farrowed in the fall of 1936.
If the number farrowing should be about as indicated and theaverage number of
pigs per litter should be equal to that of last fall, the combined spring and
fall pig crop of 1937 will be about 4 million less than the combined crop
of 1936. This would be a decrease of about 6 percent.

The size of the fall pig crop will depend to some extent on. corn crop
prospects during the remainder of the gro .in- season. In view of the present
favorable prospects for the corn crop, farmers may retain more sows for fall
farrowing than was indicated by the June report. The total number of pigs
raised this year, therefore, may be somewhat greater than that indicated in
the report.

Corn crop prospects dwindled rapidly in the summer of 1936 as drought
conditions became steadily worse in the greater part of the Corn Belt. The
unfavorable conditions caused hog producers to dispose of many brood sows
that otherwise would have been retained. Marketings of packing sows from
Juno to September comprised a larger than average proportion of slaughter
supplies and marketing of spring pigs in August and September were relatively
large in August and September. Hence, total slaughter during that period was
much larger than had been anticipated earlier in the year. Crop conditions
this year are practically thd reverse cf these in the summer of 1936, and it is
expected that total a,-.rk':-tings of packing sows this summer and fall will be
relatively small and that very few spring Iigs will be marketed before October.





HS-9


New crop hogs likely to be marketed li::t, and at heavy weights

The larger supplies of feed expected to be available this fall as
compared with a year earlier will caus- producers to feed hogs to heavier
weights and sell them somewhat later than they did in the winter of 1936-37.
The seasonal distribution of hog mar'ketings during the 1937-38 marketing year,
therefore, will be much different from that of the present year. Slaughter
during the first 3 months, October to December, will comprise a relatively
small proportion of the yearly total and also of the total for the first half
of the year. In numbers, the total during the October December quarter
probably will be larger than in the corresponding period of 1935 but smaller
than in the same period of 1936. The proportion of the winter slaughtcr
supply which is marketed from January to March, inclusive, is expected to
be considerably larger than that marketed from October to December, whereas
in recent years the proportions marketed in these two periods have been
about the same.

Average weights of hogs marketed in the 1937-38 marketing year are
likely to be somewhat heavier than in the current year but possibly not
greatly different from those of other years of average corn crops. This
expected increase in weights will offset in large part the probable reduction
in the number of hogs slaughtered. Total supplies of pork and lard, therefore,
probably will not be very much smaller than those in 1936-37.


Domestic demand for hog products improved

Consumer demand for meats improved materially from 1933 to 1936. In
the latter year retail expenditures for federally inspected meats consumed
in the United States were approximately 10 percent greater than in 1935 and
more than 40 percent larger than at the depression low level of 1933. The
marked improvement in consumer demand for moat s ince 1933 has resulted from
the material increase in incomes of consumers brought about by the increases
in industrial activity, employment and w.vc-s. Estimates of the Department
of Commerce show that the national income paid out in 1936 was 14 .crc.-nt
larger than in 1935 and nearly 40 percent greater than in 1933.

In the last half of 1936 there was a considerable increase in industrial
activity and incomes of consumers as cr-:.-ir,;rd with the corrcs3;r:ndin period
a year earlier. Likewise consumer expenditures for meats showed a
substantial increase during this period. In the first half of 1937, the
increase in industrial activity over the corres--cndirng months a year earlier
was much less marked than that indicated for the last half of 1936, and retail
expenditures for pork and for all mnats in the first half of 1937 were about
equal to those of a year earlier.

Prospects as to the probable consumer demand for meats in the last half
of 1937 and in early 1938 are now rather uncertain. In view ;f the recent
tendency for industrial activity to level off and the lack of definite
i-..z pointi.,- to a continuance of the rise, it seems unlikely that this
demand will experience an increase in the last half of l1'37 such as occurred
uri:. the last 6 months of 1936. On the other hahd, there is no, indication
that it will weakon :-..rrcci-.bly in this period. Thus, a relatively stable
demand for nats during; the remainder of 1937 seons to be the most logical
-.: .-- :tion,






HS-9


Hog prices next fall and winter to average as highas year earlier

Since slaughter supplies of hogs during the remainder of the 1936-37
marketing year, ending :September 30, are expected to be considerably smaller
than a year earlier, hog prices during the next few months are expected t o
be well maintained near the level of mid-July. A further moderate advance
in prices in this period may occur if suppliess are reduced much below the
low level of May and June.

With prospects for a slightly smaller tonnage of hogs to be marketed
in the fall and winter of 1937-36 than a year earlier and forth
maintenance of a fairly high level of consumer demand, hog prices in this
period probably will average as high as and perhaps higher than in 1936-37.
The average price paid by packers for hogs slaughtered under Federal
inspection from October through April 1936-37 was about $9.75.

Seasonal changes in hog prices during the next marketing year cannot
be predicted now with any degree of certainty since neither the corn crop
nor the fall pig crop of this year is known. With relatively small slaughter
in prospect for the first 3 months of the marketing year, the decline in
hog prices during this period (October-December) may be somewhat less than
usual and prices in these months probably will be high in relation to prices
prevailing in the late winter. The level of prices from October through
January or later will depend partly upon the demand of packers for hog
products for storage. The storage demand in the eorly months of 1937-38
may not be as strong as it was a year earlier, since prospects for slaughter
supplies the following summer may be somewhat different in late 1937 than
they wore in late 1936.

If the 1937 corn crop is about equal to average, it seems probable
that hog slaughter in the 19j7-38 winter marketing season will represent a
smaller than usual proportion of the yearly total. In this event hog
prices in the winter season of the coming marketing year may be higher than
usual in relation to prices prevailing during the following summer.

Pork and lard exports continue small

Exports of hog products thus far in 1936-37 have continued near the low
level of 1935-36, and have been much smaller .than the exports of all post-war
years prior to 1935. Exports of pork and lard decreased materially from
1925 to 1933 chiefly because of increased hog production in Europe and
restrictions placed on imports in several foreign countries. A further marked
reduction in exports occurred in 1934-35 and 1935-36 as a result of short
Supplies and high.prices of hogs and hog products in this country. In the
years 1925-29 the average annual exports of hog products were roughly equiva-
lent to the products obtainable fromabout 7 million hogs of average market
weight, or about 15 percent of the average number of hogs slaughtered under
Federal inspection during that period. In 1935-36 experts were equivalent
to only about .1 million hogs, or about 3 percent of inspected hog sl-aughter.




HS-9


Exports of pork and lard, specified periods


Year beginning Pork Lard
Oct. 1

1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
AvErage,
1924-25 to 1923-29 ..: 380,457 742,624
1929-30 to 1933-34 .." 178,550 596,005

1934-35 ...............: 104,279 142,060
1935-36 .................: 69,189 101,151

Oct. May,
1935-36 .............: 41,882 68,461
1936-37 .............: 40,391 72,314


United States Department of Commerce. Pork includes
bacon, hams and shoulders, and fresh canned and pickled
pork. Lard includes neutral lard.




Exports of pork, mostly hams, and of lard, to the United Kin-dom have
continued in limited volume during the past 2 years. British imports of
pork from non-nmpire countries have been limited by a quota since late 1932.
The share of the United States in the total import quota during the past
3 years has been 8.1 percent. In 1936-37, however, exports from the United
States to Groat Britain have not been sufficiently large to fill this quota,
and the unfilled portion has been temporarily allocated to other countries.
Exports of lard from the United States to Germany have been n:igligible in
the past 2 years because of foreign exchange restrictions adopted by the
German Government. Germany formerly imported from 100-300 million pounds of
American lard annually. Shipments of lard to Cuba have'increased greatly
since the Cuban duty on lard was lowered by the Cuban trade agreement in 1934,
but exports to Cuba are still considerably smaller than they were for
several years prior to 1931.

Ii c_-ts of pork increase in 1937

Imports of pork thus far in 1936-37 have been considerably l.:r.r than
in 1935-36, and much larger than aver-g. They continue to be very small,
however, in relation to domestic production. In CLOr.'. r 1936, probably
for the first time on record, i..ports of pork wore larger than o' product. L .r'er imports than e-.xprts also were reported fror; January
through March 1937. For the period October throu.l. May 1`'36-37, the combined
imports of pork and live hogs woer equivalent to about 45 ," hcis of .,vcry.c
market weight. Inspected hog sl .ugltcr in the United States during, this
rnod totaled 26,768,01:'0 head. Since the total :.[..,'rt.s of h!.-.s and pork in
the present year are equivalent to only about 1-1/2 percent of inspected
slaughter in this country, it is ovilont that prices of ho.Js in the United
.' .t.cs have not been affected p.Lr-ci-Lbly by the increase in imports.






HS-9


Imports of pork, specified periods


: Hams, :Pork,
Year beginning : Pork, : shoulders,: pickled,
Oct. i : fresh : and : salted, : Total
:: bacon :and other
: 1,000 1,0 1,000 1,000
: pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average,
1929-30 to 1933-34 : 924 1,957 1,110 3,991

1934-35 ................: 3,225 '3.233 879 7,337
1935-36'...... ....: .9,942 19,886 2,522 32,350

Oct. May,
1935-36 ............. 5,128 10,655 1,676 17,459
1936-37 ..............: 12,487 28,347 3,044 43,878


United States Department of Commerce. Beginning January 1, 1934,
imrors for consumption; general imports prior to 1934.
"Supplies of vessels" included since January 1934.




The increase in pork imports in the present year has been largely in
shipments of canned hams, mostly from Poland. The principal reason for
the increase in pork imports has been the greater advance in prices of hogs
and hog products in the last 3 or 4 years in this country than in foreign
countries. For example, the average price of hogs at Chicago in early 1937
was about 160 percent higher than in 1932; in Canada hog prices were about
100 percent higher.in early 1937 than in 1932, while in Poland the rise in
prices during this period amounted to onlyebout 50 percent.

A marked increase in hog slaughter in European countries was reported
in the last quarter of 1936 and slaughter has continued large in the first
half of 1937.. Latest census enumerations for hogs and the high level of
feed prices in Europe, however, indicate that there will be some decrease
in European hog slaughter in late 1937 and early 1938..

Eur-p;.' -as a whole, generally produces a smaller quantity of hog
products than is needed for European consumption requirements. The increase
in hog production in Europe in recent years, however, has reduced materially
the need of European countries for imported pork. On the other hand, fat
production in Europe is still considerably short of European needs for fat,
In some European countries increased hog production has been made possible
by larger imports of foodstuffs.


-9-





-10-


In view of these considerations, it sooms unlikely that exports of
pork from European countries to the United States will ever become large,
despite the recent increase in imports <.f hams from Poland. If feed crop
production in the United States in 1937 and 1538 returns to a normal level,
hog production will increase greatly. Under such conditions a considerable
decrease in imports of pork will occur, and it is likely that the United
States will again become a net exporter of pork.


LONG-TIM! PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

The effects of the dr-.u-hts of 1934 and 1936 on hog production were
much more severe than on that of ether species.of livestock. At the
beginning of 1937 the number of hogs on farms, totaling 42,774,'0' head,
was more than 30 percent smaller than on January 1, 1933. More than two-
thirds of this reduction occurred in the Western Corn Belt. In 1933 the
number of hogs in this area represented 46 percent.of the United States
total, but by January 1, 1937 this prcprrtion had.been reduced to 34 percent.

The 1937 spring pig crop in the Corn Belt States was 32 percent
smaller than the 1932-33 average. The decrease from this average in the
Western Corn Belt was 38 percent and in the Eastern Corn Belt 17 percent.
In the States cutsid the Corn Bolt the spring pig crop was only 5 percent
less than the 1932-33 average. In the past 3 years an increasing proportion
of the slaughter supplies of hogs has come from areas outside the Corn Belt,
notably the Southern States.



Spring pig crop, by gt~.- g-r.phic divisions, 1932-37


:North Central States : their United
Other United
Year East West Total States : States

:Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands

1932...........: 12,237 27,470 39,707 11,324 51,031
1933...........: 13,475 28,462 41,937 11,523 53,460
1934...........: 10,202 20,206 30,408 9,290 39,61?
1935...........: 8,830 14,597 23,477 8,961 32,438
1936...........: 10,579 20,462 31,041 10,795 41, C '
1937........... 10,641 17,243 27,C::4 10,895 3,7 '


___


HS-9





-11-


The return of hog production in the Corn Belt to normal depends largely
upon corn production this year and in the next 2 or 3 years. If the corn crop
this year is fairly large, as now seems probable, there will be a considerable
increase in the 1938 spring pig crop. A corn crop of average size in 1938
would further stimulate hog production. But even under favorable conditions
it does not seem likely that hog slaughter will reach the average of the 5 years
preceding the 1934 drought at least before 1940. In areas outside the Corn
Belt, where hog production is now nearly as large as it was before the 1934
drought, no marked increase in production is expected in the next few years.
Some increase in the South, however, is possible in view of the present high
level of hog prices and the increased acreage of feed crops in that area.

If the number of pigs raised in the Corn Belt increases in the next
2 or 3 years, hog slaughter also will increase beginning, perhaps in late 1938.
Hog prices, of course, would be lowered by such an increase in supplies, unless
there is a corresponding increase in consumer demand for meats. Nevertheless
an increase in hog production seems highly desirable both from the standpoint
of producers and consumers. In order for producers to realize something like
maximum total returns from hog production at the present level of demand an
increase of from 20 to 25 percent in hog slaughter from the 1937 level appears
necessary.

In the years from 1922-34, inspected hog slaughter fluctuated roughly
between 42 and 54 million head, and the yearly per capital output of pork
ranged from 66 to 85 pounds. During this period,with the variations that
occurred in supplies and with the prevailing demand there was a distinct
tendency for the total income to hog producers to vary inversely with the
supply of hogs. That is, a large supply at a given level of demand, brought
smaller total returns than a small supply. As a result of the droughts of
1934 and 1936 the yearly inspected hog slaughter was reduced to 31 to 34 million
head in 1935-37, and the per capital production of pork varied between 46 and
58 pounds in this period. It appears that this volume of production was so
much below the level of the previous 12 years that total income from the sale
of hogs in the last 3 years would have been greater if hog production had been
substantially larger. A substantial increase in income, however, did occur in
this period, but it resulted from causes other than the greatly reduced supplies.

Since most of decrease in hog production occurred in the Corn Belt,
especially in the western part of that area, the effects of the severe droughts
upon income to hog producers in the Corn Belt are evident. Increased pro-
duction of feed grains and ':ls in the next 2 or 3 years in the Corn Belt,
therefore, is necessary if livestock production and farm income from livestock
are to regain their former importance in that region.

If feed crop production in next 5 or 6 years is average or better than
average, it is possible that in the latter part of this period hog production
will reach a level equal to or greater than the average of 5 years preceding
the 1934 drought. Such a level of production probably w uld be in excess of
that necessary to provide maximum returns to hog producers. Also during this
period if weather and feed conditions arc favorable it seems probable that
there will be an upward trend in cattle numbers. Thus at the end of the next
5 years, it is possible that the number of both cattle and hogs will be as
large as or larger than the average for the 10 years, 1924-33. Such a level
of livestock population probably would result in a volume of meat production
considerably in excess of that in the last 3 yo:ers.










HOGS: NUMBER ON FARMS JANUARY I, UNITED STATES AND
BY GEOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS, 1920 TO DATE


HEAD
(MILLIONS) Uited Sttes
60 -

I ofer --- West North Centr,-/ States -



East North Centra/ States
0 24 '26 '2 '3 3
PERCENT I I I I 1
West North PROPORTION OF Ti
60 Central States I
,- ---- -- ---^
,0 a,--"-- Other Stotes

20
East North Central States
1920 '22 '24 '26 '28 '30 '32
1937 DATA ARE PRELIMINARY
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 32226


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIounc I


HOG-CORN PRICE RATIOS AND HOG MARKETING
RATIO^
RATIO HOG-CORN PRICE RATIO, CHICAGO
16
1:2 A v.
8
MARKETING .... ..II Il II 'I ~ .I I
(MILLIONS) I HORT-TIME TREND OF HO MARK TINGS

4
3
2


0


1901 1905 1910 1915 1920 19Z5 1930 1935
S*I-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE OF HOG SLAUGHTER. FEDERALLY INSPECTED
'AVERAGE PRICE OF HOGS AND NO. I YELLOW CORN
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 15242 BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FieauN 2


I




UNIVtnUllI T U r rLLUKIUlu


3 1262 08861 7393



SPRING PIG CROP, AND FEDERALLY INSPECTED HOG SLAUGHTER
DURING FOLLOWING OCT.-APR., UNITED STATES, 1924 TO DATE
HEAD
(MILLIONS) SPRING PIG CROP
( FARROWED BETWEEN DEC.I AND JUNE ) Other States
60 Corn Betr States


40 -





0


40 INSPECTED HOG SLAUGHTER
(OCT. APR.)


20



1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG 31411 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 3.- THE 1937 SPRING PIG CROP WAS 7 PERCENT SMALLER THAN THE SPRING CROP
IN 1936, WITH MOST OF THE REDUCTION OCCURING IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT. THE SMALLER
SPRING PIG CROP THIS YEAR WILL BE REFLECTED IN A REDUCED NUMBER OF HOGS SLAUGHTERED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING MARKETING YEAR, MICH BEGINS OCTOBER I.




HOGS*: AVERAGE PR!CE AT CHICAGO, OCTOBER 1901-
SEPTEMBER 1903, AND OCTOBER 1934 TO DATE
DOLLARS
PER 100
POUNDS

12
1936-3 1934-35-1935-36


10o



8



6 / -
1901-02-1902-03



OCT. DEC. FEB APR JUNE AUG. OCT. DEC. FEB. APR. JUNE AUG.
I ACKER AND SHIPPER PURCHASES

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICLTUiUR NEG 32~43 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 4.- IN YEARS FOLLOWING SHORT CORN CROPS, nOo PRICES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD,
REACHING THE HIGHEST LEVEL FOR THE YEAR DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. THIS WAS TRUE IN
1901-02 AND iN 1934-35, AND ALSO IN THE PRESENT YEAR, 1936-37. WITH A MUCH LARGER
CORN CROP IN 1902 AND 1935, THAN A YEAR EARLIER, HOG PRICES IN 1902-03 AND IN 1935-36
DID NOT REACH AS HIGH A LEVEL AS IN THE PRECEDING YEAR. IF THE 1937 CORN CROP IS
ASBOuT aEEHE. THE TREND IN HOC PRICES IN 1937-38 MAY BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THAT IN
1902-03 Aho ,- 1935-36.




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