The wool situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington


WOOL-19 July 9, 1938

----------------HE-WOOL-SITUATION
UNIV OF FL LIB TI1 HE W 0 0 L SITUATION
DOCUMENTS DEPT


Summary


US DEPOSITORY


Although little change in domestic wool prices is expected in the

immediate future, some strengthening in prices may occur,before the end of the

year, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics reports. Stocks of finished and

semi-finished goods-probably have been sharply reduced in recent months, and

some recovery in mill consumption of wool from present low levels appears

likely for the late summer and fall. Prices in foreign markets may

continue steady in view of prospects for some decrease in production in the

Southern Hemisphere.

Supplies of raw wool in the United States at the present time are

considerably larger than at the same time in 1936 and 1937. But if imports

remain small, as now appears likely, an increase in consumption in the latter

part of 1938 over that of a year earlier might result in smaller stocks of

wool on January 1, 1939, than at the beginning of the current year, but

stocks probably will remain relatively large.

The weekly rate of mill consumption of apparel wool in the United

States during May was the highest reported since last September. The May

consumption, however, was 43 percent lower than in May 1937. Consumption in

the first 5 months of the year was only half as large as in the same months

of last year and was about 30 percent smaller than the average consumption

for those months in the 5 years, 1932-36.


i) r ---r
I,







WOOL-19


Although present indications point to a fairly large carry-over

into the 1938-39 season in the Southern Hemisphere, this may be largely off-

,set by a decrease in production. Supplies for the 1938-39 season,

therefore, may be no larger than in 1937-38. The new Australian clip

will amount to approximately 960 million pounds, grease equivalent, accord-

ing to a preliminary estimate. This is a decrease of about 6 percent

compared with the 1937-38 clip and will be the smallest clip since 1930.

From such information as is available it appears that supplies of

raw wool in European countries are not large, but apparently are adequate

for current mill requirements, which are at a reduced level. Stocks of

raw wool in..Japan are..the .-smallest in many years. Imports into that

country are likely to continue relatively small but perhaps not so small

as in the season now closing.



RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN DOMESTIC SITUATION


BACKGROUND.- The domestic wool situation thus far in
1938 has been marked by low mill consumption and
large stocks of raw wool. Wool prices declined
rapidly in the latter part of 1937. And by May of
this year, domestic prices wore lower than at any time
since 1933 except for the spring of 1935. The unfavor-
able conditions in the domestic wool market early this
year were accompanied by declines in prices and in
mill activity in foreign countries, and stocks have
accumulated in Southern Homisphere selling centers.
Since April, however, prices in foreign markets have
been firm to slightly higher.


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7OOL-19


-3-


Wool Sales and Prices


Domestic wool prices w~re irregular in early June but prices were firm
to slightly higher later in the month as the demand for wool improved.
Buying increased somewhat over the small sales of the previous month,but
sales were still very moderate.

The average farm price of wool on June 15 was 17.7 cents a pound
compared with 18.7 cents a month earlier and 31.4 cents a year earlier.
Average quotations for June on representative grades of domestic wool at
Boston were about 2 cents a pound scoured basis, below the May average and
were 30 to 40 percent lower than in June 1937.

Spot bright fleece wools of combing length sold in Boston at 26-27
cents a pound, grease basis, the last week of June. These prices were
1 to 2 cents a pound higher than those quoted at the beginning of the month.

Good French combing length fine territory wools in original bags
were quoted in Boston at 62-63 cents a pound, scoured basis, the last week
of June, compared with 60-62 cents a nonth earlier. Prices of Texas fine
12 months wool were slightly irregular during June but for-the last week of
the month were equal to those quoted at the beginning of June.

Few sales of foreign wool vere reported at Boston in June and prices
remained nominal and unchanged.


Wool Imports and Supplies


Unit? a Stat:. imports of apparel wool for consumption were only
6.5 million pounds from January to May, compared with about 111 million
pounds imported in those months last year and an average of about 20 million
pounds for the 5 years 1932-36. The January May imports were the
smallest for those months in any recent year except 1933.

Because of the small imports so far this year supplies of wool in
the United ....tates are not so burdensome as night be expected from current
mill consu iption levels. While mill consumption of apparel wool front
January to May was about 130 million pounds, grease basis, smaller than in
the sane months of 1937, the decline in consumption was not quite so large
as the declii.e in general imports of such wool. Present stocks of raw
wool in the United States are nuch larger than at the corresponding time
in 1936 and 1937 and are large in relation to current mill consumption
requirements, but they probably do not differ greatly front the average
stocks of he corresponding date in the 5 years 1931-35.






WOOL-19


Mill Consunption

Consumption of wool by domestic mills in May increased fro: the low
level of recent months. The weekly average construction cf 3,236,000 pounds,
scoured basis, was the highest reported since last Septealber. The May
consumption, however, was 43 percent lower than in May last year and was
about 20 percent below the May average for the 5 years 1932-36. The only
years since 1918 in which May consumption was smaller then this year were
1932 and 1934.

Consumption in the first 5 months of 1938 was equivalent to 103
million pounds of shorn wool, grease basis, and 23 million pounds of
pulled wool. Consumption during the period was only half as large as in
the same months last year and about 30 percent smaller than the average
consumption for those months in the 5 years 1932-36.

Mill sales of men's wear fabrics remained relatively small in June
but the women's wear market was more active, according to reports of the
New York Wool Top Exchange Service, It was recently announced that the
Works Progress Administration will expend 10 million dollars for the
purchase of madd-up garments for relief distribution. Such purchases
should be helpful in clearing the way for now sales of piece goods. The
purchases probably will over cotton garments as well as wool and wool
mixtures.


OUTLOOK FOR DOMESTIC PRICES

Current factors in the domestic wool situation indicate little change
for domestic prices in the immediate future. Prospects for the fall and
winter, however, appear somewhat more favorable.

Since retail sales of wool goods have not dropped so much as mill
consumption of wool, stocks of finished and semi-finished goods probably
have been sharply reduced in recent months.

The proposed purchase of made-up garments by tho W.P.A. should
further reduce stocks of finished and se-li-finished gc.ds in t he domestic
wool manufacturing industry, and an increase in mill consur.tion in lato
summer and fall appears probable. Such an increase woul- be in contrast
to the second half of 1937 when consumption declined rapidly.

Stocks of wool in the United States at the present time are
considerably larger than at the same time in 1936 and 1937 but the increase
over a year earlier is no greater, if as groat as on January 1. If imports
remain small, as now appears likely, an increase in consuL.ption in the
latter part of the year over that of 1937 might result in smaller stocks
of wool on January 1," 1939, than in January of this year. The carry-over
at the beginning of 1938, however, was relatively larCo,


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WOOL-Z19


The spread between foreign and domestic wool prices is now somewhat
less than the tariff. If foreign prices remain fairly stable as now seems
likely, a moderate advance in wool prices in the United States could occur
without causing much increase in imports.

Present prospects indicate that foreign prices will remain firm, at
least until the now Southern Hemisphere clip becomes available next fall.
The relatively large carry-over of wool now in prospect in the Southern
Hemisphere is expected to be about offset by a decline in production.
Foreign supplies in the 1938-39 season, therefore, nay be no larger than in
1937-38.


FOREIGN SITUATION

Wool Sales and Prices


Clearing sales were held in Australian selling centers in late May
and June, the final sales for the 1937-38 season closing at Brisbane on
June 28. Prices declined slightly at the Sydney sales which closed Juno 9
but were firm and unchanged during the remainder of June.

The South American markets reported little change in conditions
during May. Sales were small and prices remained unchanged. Much wool of
the current clip remains to be sold although normally the active selling
season in South America is drawing to a close at this tine.

No public wool auctions were hold in London in June. The next
series in that market is scheduled to open on July 12. As reported last
month,prices at the close of the May sales in London for all except
scoured, medium and low crossbred wools and slipped wools were equal to or
somewhat higher than at the close of the March series.


Wool Supplies in the Southern Hemisphore,June 1

Although 'indications point to a fairly large carry-over of wool in
the Southern Hemisphere at the end of 1937-38 season, this may be offset
to a largo extent by a decrease in production in 1938-39. Carry-over
stocks at the end of the present season nay be as large as at the end of
the 1931-32 season, but production in 1938-39 will probably be somewhat
smaller than it was in 1932-33.- The carry-over in the Southern Hemisphere
at the end of the 1931-32 season was the largest since early post-war years.


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WOOL-19


The new Australian clip will amount to approximately 960 million pounds,
grease equivalent, according to the preliminary official estimate issued in
June at the conference of..Australian wool growers and brokers. This is a
decrease of about 6 percent compared with the 1937-38 clip and will be the
smallest since 1930. A report accompanying the estimate stated that owing
to the fact that s seasonal prospects were still very uncertain in several
States, the making of the estimate this season presented unusual
difficulties. Australia produces about 50 percent of the Southern Hemisphere
wool clip. The Union of South Africa, and parts of Argentina also are
recovering from prolonged drought. The extent to which the drought conditions
will affect the size of the coming wool clips in those countries is not
yet known.

According to the new livestock census just released, the number of
sheep in Uruguay in 1937 was 17,931,C00, an increase of 16 percent compared
with the 1932 estimate but a decrease of 13 percent compared with the 1930
Census. Ewes numbered 9,830,000 compared with 11,919,000 in 1930. Wool
production in 1937 probably reached 120 million pounds or more, compared
with 116 million the previous year. Production in 1930 was estimated at
153 million pounds,
1/
Apparent supplies of wool in the Southern Hemisphere on June 1,
were estimated to be 48 percent larger than a year earlier, and 26 percent
greater than the Juno 1 average for the 5 years 1932-36. If deductions
are made for wool consumption in such countries now estimated to be about
10 percent of total supplies, the increase in supplies on June 1 above
the 5-yoar average would be about 10 percent. Domestic consumption in
Southern Hemisphere countries has been increasing in recent years.
Consumption in the five principal wool-producing countries increased
from about 110 million pounds in 1933-34 to about 150 million pounds in
1936-37 or 36 percent.

Receipts at selling centers in May exceeded those of a year earlier
by 7 percent and the average May receipts for the preceding 5 years by
17 percent. Receipts of 1937 clip wool at selling centers from the beginning
of the season to June 1, for the five Southern Hemisphere countries combined,
amounted to 1,498,000,000 pounds, which is only 1 percent smaller than in
the corresponding period of 1936-37. Exports of wool front Southern
Hemisphere countries, on the other hand, totaled only 1,458,000,000 pounds
and were 13 percent smaller than a year earlier and about the same percentage
smaller than the procoding 5-year average.






1/ Carry-over plus estimated production minus exports to May 30.
No deduction made for relatively small quantities consumed locally nor for
stocks sold but not yet exported.


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WOOL-19


Exports of wool from Argentina and Uruguay for the 8 months of the
season up to May 31, were almost 30 percent smaller than a year earlier.
Germany and France were the only important countries to which shipments
increased, the former country taking almost three times as much as in
1936-37. Decreases in shipments to other countries in the first 8 months of
the current season as compared with the same period of 1936-37 were as
follows: United States, 90 percent; Japan, 80 percent; Belgium,
45 percent; Italy, 59 percent; and United Kingdom, 15 percent. Last
season for the 8-month period the United States took the largest amount or
95 million pounds with the United Kingdom next with 82 million pounds.
So far this season Germany has been the largest purchaser, taking 82 million
pounds; the United Kingdom second with 69 million pounds, while the
United States took only 10 million pounds.

Shipments from Australia and the Union of South Africa vore reduced
12 percent in the first 10 months of the season through April 30, exports
from Australia decreasing 12 percent; and those from the Union of South
Africa, 14 percent. As was the case with exports from South America,
exports from Australia and the Union of South Africa to Germany and
France increased. The three largest purchasers from Australia and South
Africa in 1936-37 show.'d the following decreases in the first 10 months
of the 1937-38 season. United Kingdom 1 percent; Japan 59 percent,
and Belgium 32 percent. The United States has taken only 5 million pounds
of wool from Australia and the Union of South Africa compared with 78
million pounds a year ago.


Supplies in Importing Countries


With prospects of a substantial carry-over of wool into the 1938-39
season in Southern Hemisphere selling centers, the supply situation in
importing countries is of particular interest. Statistics of raw wool
stocks in importing countries are incomplete but information on imports
and manufacturing activity afford some chock on the supply situation.

The decrease in exports from. the Southern Hemisphere in the current
season as compared with the preceding season is largely the result of
the decline in demand from Japan and the United States. Imports into
Japan from July 1937 to April 1938, inclusive, were only 68 million pounds
compared with 178 million pounds in the sane months of the previous season,
and a 5-year average of 185 million pounds. Imports into Japan are now
under Government control. While special provision is being nade for
supplies for the export trade the Japanese Government has decreed compulsory
admixture of staple fiber with wool for home consumption. Stocks ofraw
wool in Japan are the smallest in many years. Imports are likely to remain
curtailed under present economic conditions in that country but perhaps
not to so great an extent as in the season now closing.


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WOOL-19 -8-


From available information it appears that supplies of raw wool in
European countries are not large but are adequate for current manufacturing
requirements, which have been reduced. No general increase in the demand
for raw wool from those countries appears likely until there is a
substantial improvement in mill activity, particularly in the United Kingdom,
Belgium, and France*

Retained imports of wool for the United Kingdom, France, Germany,
Belgium, and Italy combined from July 1, 1937, to the latest date for which
statistics are available (March May) were slightly larger than in the
same months of the previous year but were about 10 percent smaller than the
5-year average 1932-33 to 1936-37. France, Germany, and Italy have imported
larger quantities of wool than in the previousseason while the United
Kingdom and Belgium report smaller imports. In all countries except Germany
and Belgium imports were below the 5-year average.

Retained imports for the United Kingdom from July to May were
approximately 511 million pounds compared with 516 million for the same
months of the preceding season and a 5-year average of 538 million pounds.
Mill consumption of wool in the United Kingdom has declined sharply since
last July. Consumption from January to May was estimated by Mallett &
Company to be almost 100 million pounds smaller than in the same months of
1937 and the smallest for the period since 1932.

Wool stocks at -the principal English ports and at railway and-canal
depots in Yorkshire at the end of April were about the same as a year
earlier when stocks were relatively small, according to datistics published
in "Wool Intelligence Notes." Stocks this year were much smaller than on
that date in the years 1933-36. Such statistics do not cover all stocks of
raw wool in the United Kingdom.

A sharp decline in imports into Belgium has accompanied a decline in
manufacturing activity in that country. Stocks of wool tops at Belgian
combing establishments at the end of April, however, were the largest since
1933.

Imports of wool into France through March wore larger than in the
previous season when imports were unusually small, but the 1937-38 imports
are smaller than the 5-year average, 1932-33 to 1936-37. The increase in
imports in the current season nay have been partly the result of the recent
currency devaluation. Manufacturing activity in France has continued at
a relatively low level.

Imports into Gcri.ny and Italy are subject to government control,
and supplies are reported to be inadequate for mill deon.nd in those
countries s.







IWO7OL-19


SUPPLE:. ITJi.Y D,12A

Table 1.- Price of wool per pound in specified markets and prices of
toxtile raw materials in the United States, solcoted periods,1936-38

*: : : 1938
A A~' Jw ~'f .t /k"^^ ^ *^ *. n r~iin111* .- w iii~iiiii --i -* -


Market and description


. V '- J. -vor "..
:1936 ; 1937


1937


: Cents Cents Cents


Boston:
Territory cofioing scoured 'jsis:
64s, 70s, 80s, (fine)....:
56s, (3/8 blood) .........
46s, (low 1/4 blood)......:
United States:
Faru price, 15th of month,
grease basis ........... .....:
London: 1/
Average quality, clan cost 2/-:
70s ... ...... .........


92,0
80.4
65.9


26.9


58.4


56s .. ..... .. .... ...... : 35.1
46s ......................: 23.8
Bradford: 2/
Scoured basis -
64s warp ..5.............. : 59.8
50s .... -..... .........,.: 29.7
Australia:
Average price at all selling
centers, greasy wool h/.....: 23.0
Sydney (Delivered Bradford) J/-:
70s warp, clean basis ....:11/62,9
Union of South Africa:
Average export price,greasywool: 21.4
Price at selling centers 6/-
70s warp, cleca cost .....:15/60.5
Argentina:
Buenos Aires -':rket -
Buenos Aircs,South & Southeast
coarse crossbred, greasy -
32s 50s ................:!6/15.6


Uruguay:
Montevideo Market -
Fine crossbred, greasy -
5o/56s 60s .........:
Coarse crossIrod -
32/36s 44s ..........
United States;
Textile fibers -
Wool, territory fine staple/ :
Cotton, 7/8 Middling 8/......
Silk, Japaneso 13-15 2/......
Rayon yarn, 150 denier ........:


101.9
87.1
72.1


32.0


62.1
46.3
39.5


64.7
43.2


102.0
88.5
68.5


31.4


70.4
51.4
44.2


72.0
49.4


24.7 10/14.5


12/67.5.


13/


25.1 241.4


151/62.9


13/


17/21.7


34.2 18/39.8

23.9 18/30.8


92.0
11.9
176.6
58.6


101.9
11.2
186,0
62.2


Apr. May Juno
Cents Cents Cents


69.0
57.5
51.0


18.3


43.1
31.1
26.2


45.7
.28.0


11.1


68.0
55.8
51.0


44.5
31.6
26.9


46.4
28.9


10.9


65.0
54.0
49.0


17.7


43.4
26.9


49.8 14/51.0

17.5 15.4

47.8 47.6


15.4


13/ 19/18.6

13/ 19/17,0


102.0
12.5
182.7
63.0


69.0
8.8
161.9
54.0


18.7

17.3


68.0
8.5
160.0
52.0


65.0
8.4
160.9
49.0


Continued -


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WOOL-19


Table 1.- Price of wool per pound in specified rarkcts .and prices
of textile raw materials in the United States, selected
periods, 1936-38 Cont'd.


Foreign.prices have boon converted at prevailing rates of exchange.
Yearly averages are averages of monthly prices, except United States farr
price which is weighted average.


1/ Average of quotations for each series of 'London sales reported by
the London Office of the Bureau. For months when no sales wore
held figures are interpolated.
2/ Top and noil in oil,
3/ Quotations reported about the 25th of the month by the London
Office of the Bureau.
/ National Council of Wool Selling Brokers of Australia.
5/ Wool Record and Textile World, Bradford.
6/ South Africa Ministry for Agriculture.
7/ Scoured basis, Boston market.
8/ Average at 10 markets.
2/ 78 percent white, at Now York.
10/ Low price due to miscellaneous quality of offerings.
.11/ 7-lonth average. No quotations April to August.
l12/ 8-nonth average. No quotations Ilay to August.
13/ No quotations.
l/ First week only.
15/ 9-nonth average. No quotations Juno to August.
16/ 10-nonth average.
17/ 4-month average.
18/ 5-month average. Only months quoted,
_9/ Average for 3 weeks.


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WOOL-19


Table 2.- United Statos: Wool imports, consumption and machinery
activity, specified periods, 1936-38


Item


SJan. Dec.


Jan. May


: 1936 : 1937 : 1937 : 1938

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000.
: pounds pounds pounds pounds


Imports for consumption,
actual weight: 1/
Apparel ..............:110,712
Finer than 4Qs ..... 84,759
Not finer than 40s : 25,953
Carpet, including


150,160
126,601
23,559


111,095
95,444
15,651


6,529
4,586
1,943


camels hair .........:143,276 172,091 96,321 12,647


May Apr. .I ay
1937 : 1938 : 1938


1,000
pounds


16,019
14,636
1,383


1,000
pounds


999
692
307


1,000
pounds


1,169
664
505


13,629 2,509 2,784


Consumption, scoured
basis 2/-
Weekly average -
Apparel ..............: 5351
Carpet ............... .. 2,029
Aggregate -
Apparel ............ 278,258
Carpet ...............:105,504


4,772
2,023

248,121
105,197


6,053
2,788

133,162
61,341


2,763
834

60,778
18,347


5,718
2,524

22,872
10,096


2.525
668

12,623
3,329


3,236
759

12,944
3,036


:Perccnt Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent


Machinery activity: 2/-
(40-hour shift)
Worsted conbs ........
Wprsted spindles......:
Woolen spindles ......
Loons, broad .........:
Looms, narrow ........
Carpet ard rug looms


121.1
83.5
118,2
98.9
51.9
68.3


115.2
82.2
107.8
97.2
51.0
71.3


148.5
106.2
133.3
121.3
69.7
87.6


64.6
44.2
58.9
55.8
25.0
40.0


140.4
102.0
128.1
117.9
64.5
85.4


60.9
38.4
45.1
39.4
18.5
43.3


80.3
52.4
54.2
49.9
22.6
33.2


Impoxt figures from official records of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic
Co.. orcc. Consumption and machinery activity figures from the Bureau of the
Census,
1/ Weight of greasy, scoured and skin wool added together.
2/ Figures for April based on 5 weeks, May on 4 weeks, January to May on 22 weeks.
No adjustment made for holidays.


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WOOL-19


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08861 5744


-12-


Table 3,- Exports of wool (grease,scoured and washed combined) front
Australia and the Union of South Africa first 10 months of season,
July 1 to April 30, 1936-37 and 1937-38

: Australia : Union of :
Country of : 1/ : South Africa Total
dostinat ion
:1936-37 :1?37-38 : 1936-37: 1937-33: 1936-37 : 1937-38
: Mil.1b. Iil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb.
United Kingdom ....., 293.4 284.8 29.5 33.8 322.9 318.6
Germany ...........: 36.4 47.7 41.4 78.1 77.8 125.8
France ............: 76.7 111.7 29.5 33.6 106.2 145.3
Italy ........3.....: 30.0 28.5 10.3 14.5 40.3 43.0
Boelgium ...........: 126.3 82.4 17.8 15.7 144.6 98.1
Netherlands ........: 9.7 6.7 2/ / 9.7 6.7
Japan ..............: 71.1 57.3 60.2 4.5 151.3 61.8
United States.......: 73.4 4.5 5.0 0.3 78.4 4.8
Canada ..........;.: 3.6 3.1 1/ 2/ 3.6 3.1
Total............ : 721.1 626.7 213.7 100.5__ 934.8 807.2
Other countries..... 38.1 3_- 8.6 9.7 46.7 53.2
Grand total.....,: 759.2 670.2 222.3 190.2 981.5 860.4

Wool Intelligence I'otes.
1/ Statistics of the Cor:.;onwcalth of Australia Bureau of Census and Statistics.
2/ Report of the South African Trade Connissioner in London.
3/ If any,.included with "other countries".


Table 4.- Exports of w.ccl(;rcn.sc,sccurcd and washed combined) from
Argentina and Uruiuay to principal conzunin; countries, first 8
months of season, Octob-r 1 t:, Lay 31, 1936-37 and 1937-38


Country of
destination.


: Argci.tin : Uruguay : Total
S193637 1937-38:
S1936-37. 1936-37:1937-38 :1936-37 :1937-38


:M.il, lb. ;.1iJl.lb.
United Kingdon .....: 63.5 51.9
Germany ........14.4 57.7
France ............: 30.5 .34.1
Italy ..............: 20.8 6.5
Belgium ...........: 22.0 12.1
Netherlands ....,..,.: 0.7 1.3
Japan ............: 20.7 6.5
United States .......: 60.7 9.1
Total .1 ...,...-.:21_ 3 179.2
Other countries.....,: 11.5 13.0
Grand total.....: 252.0 192.2


.1il. Ib. lbil. b. Mil. lbe Mil.lb.
18.0 17.5 81., 69.4
14.8 24.0 29.2 82.5
4.8 3.5 35.3 37.6
7.3 4.9 28.1 11.4
8.0 4.5 30.0 16.6
1.5 2.0 2.2 3.3
26.4 2.7 47.1 9.2
_26.4 0.6 55.1 9.7
1o7.2 60.5__ 3l4.5__ 239.7
1.9 5.2 13.4 18.2
109.1 65.7 361.9 257.9


Trade reports supplied by Buenos Aires Office of the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics.
l/ Prolininary.

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