UNITED STATES DEPA1.T: :.'T OF LGRICULTUAE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington


WOOL-15 :.:ich 10, 1938


THE WOOL SITUATI ON


I U.S. DEPOSITORY


Summary


Supplies of apparel wool in the United States at the beginning of the

new domestic wool m::.rkting season on April 1 will be larger than on that

date in 1936 and 1937, and present indications are that world docks of raw

wool also will be larger on April 1 than they have boon since 1935, the

Bureau of Agricultural Economics reports,

Apparent supplies in the five principal wool producing countries of

the Southern Hemisphere on February 1 are estimated at 1.5 billion pounds,

and were 23 percent larger than on the same date of 1937 and 5 percent

greater than on February 1, when supplies also were relatively large.

The 1938 shorn wool clip in the United States may be slightly smaller

than that of 1937 as the number of stock sheep on hand on January 1, 1938,

was smaller than a y.'ea earlier. Total production of shorn and pulled wool

in the United States in 1937 amounted to 432,544,000 pounds. This estimate

includes 66,200,000 pounds of pulled wool.

United States mill consumption of apparel wool in January showed no

improvement from the low December level. The January consumption was more

than 50 percent smaller than in January 1937 and was smaller than in any month

since September 1934.


c







IcO3L-15


The large stocks of finished and semifinished wool -oo'-r in the United

States, which resulted from the high mill consumption in the first half of

1937, will be Creatly reduced during the winter and spring. 7'ith lower

inventories, some improvement in mill consumption should occur during the

last half of this year.

In orts of wool into the United States so far in 1'?38 !:avc been

negligible com-parcd with the large imports in the early months of 1937.

Tralirng in domestic wools continued !i&ht in February. Prices in the

Boston market ,were irregular and further declines were reocrted on most wools

during the month. Average prices for combing territory. wools at Easton in

February were about 40 percent lower than in February 1 37 when domestic

prices were at the peak.

The movement oif wool prices in foreign areetss was irregular in

January and February, but the general trend continued dov.n:;r.r


DOMESTIC SITUATICII

BACKGROUTD.- iur1-ing the spring of 1937 domestic wool :.ices
reached the highest level since 1929 but declined mrc t hin
30 ;Iercent by the end of the year. At the beginning of 1).8
domestic wool prices were lower than at any time since 1933'
The drop in prices in this country reflects (1) the decrease
in mill consumption since last summer; (2) the recession in
industrial activity and in the business situation generall;;
(3) larger world supplies of wool; (4) larger stocks of w:col
in this country, and (5) weakness in foreign wool prices
since last September.


Wool Sales and Prices

Trading in dcmcstic wools continued light in February. Prices of the
Boston market wero irregular and further declines were reported on most
wools during the month. Avor-.;c prices for col..bitg- territory wools in
February were about 40 percent lower than in February 1937 when domestic
prices were at the peak.




I --





WOL-15


-3-


Quotations for fine combing bright fleece wools at Boston the end of
February averaged 28.5 cents a pound grease basis, compared with 31.5 cents
in the last week of January. Similar 3/8 blood wools averaged 28 cents a
pound the last week of February and 30.5 cents a month earlier. Country
packed 3,/8 and 1/4 blood bright fleeces in mixed grade lots from the Middle
West w-ere available the end of February at 24 to 26 cents a pound in the
grease, delivered to eastern markets, compared with 27 to 28 cents a pound
quoted for similar wools in January.

Prices on graded combing territory wools and 12 months' Texas wools
declined 2 to 8 cents a pound, scoured basis, during February.


Index Numbers of Textile Prices

Although wool prices have continued to decline while prices of cotton
have advanced since November, domestic wool prices in January and February
were still high in relation to prices of other textile raw materials. The
decline in apparel wool prices after the early months of 1937 was not as
great as the decline in cotton prices.

Index numbers of prices of.wool, cotton, silk and rayon yarn for the
years 129-37 and to date in 1933 are shown below.



Index numbers of prices of wool, cotton, silk and rayon yarn,
United States 1929-37 and January and February 1938

1929= 100_
: Wool Cotton Silk Rayon
Year : / 3 2 / : yarn /


1929 .......... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1930 ...........: 77.7 69.9 69.2 85.0
1931 ...........: 64.3 43.4 48.7 60.8
1932 ...........: 47.9 33.6 31.6 53.0
1933 ..........: 68.3 45.9 32.7 48.9
1934 ...........: 83.2 66.9 26.3 47.1
1935 ............ 76.2 64.7 33.1 46.0
1936 ......... -. 93.3 65.5 35. 8 47.0
1937 ............ : 103.9 61.6 37.7 49.9
1938 -
Jan. ........: 78.9 46.9 31. 7 48.2
Feb. .......; 72.0 49.0

Index numbers are based on yearly averages of monthly prices.
j_/ Fine staple, territory, scoured basis Boston market,
2/ I.iilling 7/8 inch, average at 10 designated markets.
J/ Japanese silk double extra, 13-15; 78 percent white at
Now York Basis for trading on New York Silk E Bureau of Labor Statistics.
/ Domestic yarn, first quality 150 A denier. Bureau of
Labor Statistics.







.'XL-15


Domestic Wool Production

The 1938 shorn wool clir in the United States may be silently smaller
than that of 1937, since the number cf stock shop on hian. o0. January 1, 1938,
was slightly snaaller than that of a year earlier.

The total production of shorn a-d pulled wool in the Ul.itod States in
1937 amounted to 432,544,000 pounds accordingg tothe revised -stimiato of the
Bureau of .Aricultural Economics. This estimate includes 66,200,000 pounds
of pulled wool. Shorn wool production is now estimated at 366,3!44',00 pounds
from 4 ,!'57,000 shoo with-.an av-ra;e flece weight of 7.96 pounds co.-ared
with 7.03 pounds in 1936.

The incrcazsced quantity cf -ool1 shorn in 1937 cc.ipared with 1936 was
larz ly a result of the iacrea.se of 11 millionn pounds in Tcx.,s although
there was an inc:.' 3c of about 2 million -o'nds in the total for native sheep
States. Thn tot-l. i the '-estcrn shop States, excluding Texr.s, .'-as a'cut
7 million pounds il1r in 1937 than in 1936. The cc.U.dition ..f shuce this
season in thze 't rn States has been slightly better than in 1933-37.



United States: murfncr (' st ck sheoo on hand January 1, nunbcer
shorn -iL. ~-.1 prc'.uction, 1923-38


: I..e lambs Wool
:.'urt r of : t : ta
: stock : :Avr-.;e : Shorn : pulled : 'ro-
Year shop : Tunbor :w oight : wool : wool auction
: on h:pad :shorn : of : prc- : pro- : of
: Jan, 1 : :fleecc :duction:duction : wool
: millionn Million million Liiilliin Million
: head head Pounds Oounds pounds pounds

1923 .......: 40.7 39.3 7.90 314.8 51.9 366.7
192 .......: 43.5 42.0 7.80 327.8 54.5 382.3
190 ....... 45.5 44.5 7.90 352.1 61.9 414.0
1il -.......: 47.7 46.8 8.04 376.3 65.1 442.4
l'2 .......: 47.83 45.2 7.76 351.0 67.1 45l3.1
1Y-3 .......: 47.3 46.0 8.13 374.2 ..64.2 438.4
1934 ......: 43.5 46.7 7.94 370.3 60.5 430.8
1935 .......: 6.6 45.5 3.02 364.7 66.0 430.7
1936 ........ 46.4 45.7 7.T6 360.3 66.2 426.5
1937 .......: 47.1 .;0 7.96 366.3 65.2 432.5
193 .......: 46. -- -- --


-4-







VOOL-15


Wool Stocks

As indicated in the February issue of this report, the increase in
stocks of apparel wool in the United States at the beginning of April
over a year earlier may be less than the increase on January 1 inasmuch as
imports of wool so far in 1938 have been negligible compared with the large
imports in the early months of 1937. In January and February of 1938
general imports of apparel wool were. about 2 million pounds compared with
80 million pounds imported in those months of 1937, General imports in
the f irst quarter of 1937 were 111 million pounds.

Supplies of all wool in the United States at the beginning of 1938
were considerably larger than a year earlier butvure believed to be not
greatly different from the January 1 average for the receding 10 years.

\7ool I:norts

United States imports of apparel wool for ccnsuj.tion were only
2,068,000 pounds in January compared with 25 million pounds in January
1937 and 11 million pounds in Janua:y 193". Total imports for the calendar
year 1937(amounting to 150 million -ounds)were the largest since 1926, but
most of the 1937 imports entered this cou-ntry in the first half of
the year, when stocks of raw wool i.. the Ur.ited States were small. Since
stocks of raw wool in this country are now relatively large, .nd consumption
in the next 3 or 4 months is expected to be considerably smaller than a
year earlier, imports in the first h.lf of 193S no doubt will be much
smaller than in the early part of 1937 and also may be smaller than in 1936.

Mill Ccnsumtion

Mill consumption of apparel wool in January showed no increase from
the low level of December. The wco::ly average consumption of such wool on
a scoured basis was 2,542,000 pounds in the 5 weeks funded January 29 compared
with a weekly average of 2,606,000 pounds in Decomber. The January con-
sumption was 56 percent smaller thc'n in January 1937 and was smaller than
in any month since September 1934.

Despite the small mill consumption since- he middle of 1937 total
consumption of apparol wool in t he 12 months ended" d January 1930 was 233
million pounds, scoured basis, only 7 percent below the average yearly
consu..ption from 1925 to 1929. Cons -..ption in the 3-year period 1935-37 was
larger than in any other 3-year period since 1922-2!4

The high consumption in the first half of 1937 resulted in a
considerable accumulation of stocks of finished and semifinished wool goods
which are now being disposed of. When these inventories have been used up
some improvement in mill consumption probably will occur.


-5'







WOOL-15


-6-


Unfilled orders for woven cloths

Unfilled orders for certain woven cloths held by 138 reporting mills
showed a further slight reduction during the final quarter of 1937 ar.d v, ere
the smallest in the past 3 years of record, according to a recent re ort by
the Ilntional Association of Tool .Manul'acturers. The decline durii, the final
quarter of 1937 was due to smaller or'.ers for women' wear and auto cloths.
Unfilled orders for mens' wear were slightly larL.r on January 1, 1-'38,
than in late September. The position of the industry at the beginning of
1938 was in sharp contrast to that of a year earlier when unfilled orders
were large in all divisions of the industry.

1/
Unfilled orders for woven cloths, reported by 138 mills
January 2 and September 25, 1937 and January 1, 1938

: : Auto :
Mens' Womens' Auto
: s+ : : cloths Total
Date wear wear 2/
2/ ;

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: linear linear linear linear
:-ards yards yards yards
1937 -
Jan. 2 ...: 38,741 14,733 3,864 57,336
Sept. 25 ..: 15,221 7,541 3,773 26, 53
1938 -
Jan. 1 ...: 16,056 6,403 2,098 24,557

Compiled from ::oathly Statistics of Wool Manmfacture publish cd by
the National Association of Wool "::i.-ufacturers. Cloth less tL;ian
50 inches wide reported in equivalent 54 inch yardage.
1/ These mills equipped with 30,000 looms.
2/ Excludes cloth with pile or jacquard design.



FOREIGI; SirUTIC:T

Wool Sales and Prices

The movement of w:ool prices in foreign narlcts was irregular in January
and February, but the general trend continued downward.

Average prices for fine warp wool in Australia and the U:ion -f S southh
Africa in January were the lowest for the current season -u.l we'- al.-3t 30
percent lower than in January 1937. Japan made some purchases in -. AsLralia
during January and February but the quantity was small compared .:it" such
purch ses in recent years.

The wool markets of South America wore relatively quiet in January.
Germany was the principal buyer. Prices were largely nominal and unchanged.
Growers continue reluctant to sell :,t present prices.







i00 L-15 -7-


As reported last month, prices of merino wools at the close of the
first series of London sales for 1',38 on February 3 wore 5 to 7-1/2 percent
lower than in November, greasy fin: crossbreds were 10 percent lower and
greasy medium crossbreds 5 percent lower. prices of greasy low crossbreds
and all scoured crossbreds were equal to Novrmber prices while slipped wools
were 7-1/2 to 10 percent higher than in Nuvoimber. The next series of London
auctions will open 1.:arch 15.

iorld 7Wool prodi action in 1937

World wool production in 1937, exclusive of Russia and China, is now
estimated at 3,510 million pounds compared with 3,4i!4 million pounds in 1936
and an average of 3,383 million pounds for the 5 ycars, 1931-35. This
estimate for 1937 is based on pr~ioction in 25 countries which furnished 85
percent of the world total in 1936. There was an increase of 3 percent in
the five principal producing countries of th. South.-rn H.misphere which
produced o0 percent of the wVorl1. total in 1936. The 20 Northern Hemisphere
countries reporting produced 2 ,rc:..t moro wool in 1937 than in 1936.

The pre-shcaring ostimvates of w-ool production in Southern Heaisphcro
countries in the 1937-3 secann app;~ar to have been substantially correct.
Productic.; in the five I/ principal countries is still estimatedd at
2,096 million pounds, the same as in DoceC-bcr a cd a bout 3 percent larger
than in 1936, and also 3 percent above the average for th. 5 years 1931-35.


Supp ly Outlook at Bglnnir of 1933 Ilorthern Ei uisphJre Season

Present indications are that world stocks of raw wool will be larger
on April 1 than they have been on that date since 1935. That year April 1
stocks in the Southern HImisphcre w, re the largest for the 13-year period
1923 to 1997.

A; irent supplies -/in the five principal wool producing countries of
the Southern Homisphere on February 1 are estimated at 1,5 billion pounds,
an increase of 23 percent above the same date of 1937 and 5 percent above the
same date of 193.5. Wo ol reduction in the five ir-portant Southern Hiemisphere
countries in 1937 w-as slightly larger than in 1936, but exports from these
countries thus far in the 1937-33 season :u ere about 27 percent smaller than
in the corresponding period of 1 3S-37 and 25 percent smaller than the
average for the 5 preceding years.


1/ Australia, New Zealand, Union c. South Africa, Argentina and Uruguay.

2/ Carry-over from preceding season plus production minus o:ports to
January 31. Comparatively small quantity consumed and sold but not yet
exported not taken into account,







OCLL-15


V1/
Apparent su,:plies of w;ool ror.ai-:i:i for dispicsal ir five principall
Southoein Hemisphere countries as of February 1, 1932-38


: : : .'Lion : : :
er d ,ti':
Period :Australia:Zealand :of South:Argontina:Uruguay : Total
: : Afric ::

: Million Mlion Milli on :iil lion M.on million Million
: _oundL pounds pounds_ pounds pounds pounds

1932.................: 509.2 273.9 211.1 306.3 66.8 1,367.3
1933................: 556.0 293.3 134.2 289.1 60.3 1,332.9
1934....---........: 420.9 245.1 137.7 235.8 31.8 1,071.3
1935..............: 631.1 248.7 150.0 293.i 94.3 1,422.2
1936 ....... ..... 492.5 282.3 112.0 203.2 72.8 1,244.1

5-year average,
1932-36 ..........: 521.9 2e8.3 149.2 282.5 65.2 1,287.6

1937................: 491.1 245.9 153.6 264.1 60.6 1,215.3
1938................: 616.8 261.9 184.4 341.8 94.9 1,499.8

i/ Carry-ovor fror recedingg coason plus estimated production minus exports
front beginning of season to end of January. No account taken of relatively
small quantity sold but not exported and that used for domestic consumption.


Supplies in Inporting Countries

Such information as is available indicates that supplies of r'w wool
remain relatively small in most foreign importing countries. The sharp
reduction in wool ir-ports into zuchl countries in the last half of 1937, which
has resulted in an accumulation, of stocks in the Southern Hemisphere, has
prevented a piling-up of stocks in European countries during the rec.nrt period
of declining mill activity. The short .: of wool supplies in Germany and
Italy has boon relieved slightly in recent r;onths as a result of larg-r raw
wool imports since August.

iaufacturing Activity in Importing Countries

Further declines in wool manufacturing rere reported in January and earl
February from the United Kingdom, Ir'r.ce, and Belgium. Activity in Germany
and Italy remained largely unchanged.

The British Ministry of Labour reports that 21.1 percent of insured
workers were registered as une.iployed on January 17 co-.'pard with 17.c percent
on December 13 and 7.1 percent in January 1937. Unemployment in January was
the greatest reported since 1934. The British wool manufacturing industry
operated at a very high lovel in 1936 and the early part of 1937.


-8-





WOOL-15 -9-
SUPPLE,..lIT ARY DATA

Table 1 .- Price of wool per pound in specified markets and prices of
textile raw materials in the United States, selected periods, 1936-38


Market and description


: :1937 1938
Average .Aver--.e :"
: 1936 1937 : Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb.


Boston:
Territory combing scoured basis
64s, 70s, 80s, (fine) .....:
56s, (3/8 blood) ...........
46s, (low 1/4 blood) .......:
United States: Farm price, 15th of:
month, grease basis .............


Cents


92.0
60.4
65.9

26.9


Cents Cents Cents Cents


101.9
67.1
72.1


114.0
99.8
82.8


30.4 31.6


80.9
64.2
56.0


77.4
63.4
55.5


Cents


70.6
60.0
51.5


23.6 21.6 20.2


London: I/
Avera-t quality,clean cost 2/
70s .......... .... ...... :
56s ......................... :
46s .... ....... ... .... .. :
Bradford: 2/
Scoured basis -
64s warp .... .........
50S . ... . ..... .. ..:
Australia:
Average price at all selling
centers, greasy wool 4/.......:
Sydney (Delivered Bradford) / :
70s warp, clean basis.......:10/


50.4
35.1
23.6


59.8
29.7


23.0

62.9


62.1
46.3
39.5


64.7
43.2


63.7
48.4
38.7


60.1
38.7


46.6
34.6
30.2


52.0
32.3


45.3
33.6
29.7


46.8
33.3


24.7 29.7 22.0 21.1


11/67.5 70.6


Union of South Africa:
Average export price,greasywool: 21.4
Price at selling centers /
70s warp, clean cost ........:12/ 60,5
Argentina:
Buenos Aires Market
Buenos Aires, South and South-
east coarse crossbred greasy-
32s 50s .............. : /
Uruguay:
Montevideo Market
Fine crossbred, greasy -
50/56s 60s .............: 34.2
Coarse crossbred 32-36s-44s ':* 23.9
United States:
Textile fibers -
Wool, territory fine staple 7/: 92.0
Cotton, 7/8 Middling 8/......: 11.9
Silk, Japanese 13-15 9/...... 176.6
Rayon yarn 150 denier .....: 58.6


25.1 27.2 20.1 19.6


12/62.9


67.1


53.4 51.4


23.3' 17.2 14/17.7


15/39.8
15/30.8


101.9
11.2
186.0
62.2


S42.9
32.2


114.0
12.9
199.3
60.o


27.5
23.2


80.9
8.2
157.5
63.0


20.8
17.9


77.4
8.5
156.5
60.0


Continued -


43.9
33.5
29.3


42.8
26.1


57.8 52.6


70.6
8.9





WOOL-15


Table 1 .- Price of wool J..r pound in s: cificd markeots aid prices of
textile raw materials'in the United States,selected periods, 1936-38
Cont ii.usd

Foreign prices have beon converted at prevailing rates of exchar.-c. Yearly
averages are averages of monthly prices.

1/ Average of quotations for each series of London sales reported by the
London Office of the Eur-au. For months when no sales were held
figures are interpolated.
2/ Top and noil in oil.
3/ Quotations reported about the 25th of the month by the London Office of
the Bureau.
_/ National Council of Wool Selling Brokers.
W/ Wool Record and Textile World, Bradford.
6/ South Africa Ministry for Agriculture.
7/ Scoured Ja..3is, Boston market.
8/ Average at 10 markets.
9/ 78 percent white, at New York.
10/ 7-month average. No quotations April to August.
11/ 8-month average. No quotations May to August.
12/ 9-month avcr. ie. No quotations Juno to August.
13/ IC-monthi average.
14/ Average for 3 weeks.
15/ 5-mcnth average. Only months quoted.



Table 2.- fExorts of wool (grease and scoured cor.bined) from Argentina
and Uruguay to principal consuming countries, first 4 months of
season, October 1 to January 31, 1936-37 and 1937-33

Country of Argentina Uruguay Tctal
Country of


destination


.1936-37

million n
poundss


S1937-38

Million
pounds


1936-37. 1937-38.

Million Million
pounds pounds


1936-37

Mill icr.
pour. is


S1'937-38

uill ion
Sur.nds


United Kingdom .......: 39.0
Germany .... ......... : 4.4
France ............... : 12.3
Italy ............... : .
Belgium ........ .... : 8.3
Netherlands ..........: 0.5
Japan ............... : 15.6
United States .......: 39.3
Total. ..1....... 124.
Other countries.......: 6.0
Grand total ..... .. ...: 130.9


17.1 10,3 7.5 49.3 24.6
17.9 6.3 11.6 10.7 2:.5
10.6 2.5 1.0 14.8 11.6
1.2 1.9 0.7 7.4 1.9
2.8 4.5 1.2 12.5 4.0
0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5
1.1 20.7 --- 36.3 1.1
2.3 19.0 0.2 5L.3 2.5
53.5 66.1 23.2- 19. _76.7
.0 0.8 0.9 6.3 4.9
57.5 66.9 24.1 197.3 81.6


1Trale reports supplied by Buenos Aires Office f the Bureau of A"ricuitural
Economics.







Woo L-15


Table 3.- United States: Wool imports, ccnsumption and machinery
activity, specified periods, 1936-38


: Jn.-Dec. 1937


Item


: pounds


1937 Jan.
1,000 1,000
pounds pounds


Dec. Jan.
1,000 1,000
pounds pounds


Imports for consumption,
actual wei ht 1/ -/
App c.Ol ............... :
Fi:.er than L,0s ......:
Not finer than 40s ..:
Carpet, incluc i:ig
camels hair .......:

Consumption, scoured ..is 2/-:
Weekly av.ra.. :
Apparel ...... .....:
Carpet ........... :
Aggregate -
Apparel ............:
Carpet ............ .:


110,712
84,755
25,953

143,276


5,351
2,029

273,2 5
105, 041


: Percent


Machinery activity 2 -
(40-hour shift)
Worsted combs ..........:
Worsted spindles ......:
Woolen spindles .......:
Looms, broad ......... :
Looms, narrow .........:
Carpet :ni rug loons...:


121.1
83._5
118.2
98.9
51.9
63.3


150,160
12, 601
23,559

172,091


4,783
2,023

240' 715
105,1*6


Percent


115.2
82.2
107.8
97.2
51.0
'71.3


25,121
21,195
3,926

21,177


5,763
2,560

28,814
12, 02


Percent


144.6
109.0
134.9
122.5
69.9
82.0


Import figures from official records of t he Bureau of Foreign


and Domestic


Commerce. Co anumption and machinery activity figures from the Bureau of the
Census.
1/ Weight of :greasy, scoured and skin wool cd.-1. together.
2/ Figures for January based on 5 weeks, Decemrber on 4 weeks, January to
December 52 wej .O No adjustment made for holidays.


- -0 - -


1938


2,780
2,417
363

3 ,169


2,606
714

10,4124
2,857


Percent


64.6
54.7
6o.o
60,0
64.7
25.2
38.0


2,068
1,517
551

2,654


2,542
734

12,709
3,672


Percent


65.7
50.5
64.3
67.0
28.3
35.2


-11-




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

r 3 1262 08 61ll 5884Il llIlll II IlI I lll
3 1262 08861 5884










Ii