Feed situation

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Title:
Feed situation
Physical Description:
: maps., diagrs. ; 28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Place of Publication:
Washington
Frequency:
quarterly[1974-1977]
monthly[ former 1939-1945]
bimonthly[ former 1946-1963]
issued 5 times a yr.[ former 1963-1973.]
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Feeds -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Feed industry -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
FdS 1 (Aug. 1939) - FdS 267 (Nov. 1977).
Issuing Body:
No. 1-142 issued by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; no.143-187 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; no. 188- by the Economic Research Service.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000482172
oclc - 01768376
notis - ACP9811
issn - 0014-9578
System ID:
AA00009482:00001

Related Items

Preceded by:
Feed and grain situation
Succeeded by:
Feed situation


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SSIT


SAT ION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

-


FoS-33


APRIL 1942


IN .THIS ISSUE:
INDEX NUMBERS OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF
HIGH-PROTEI-N FEEDS, 1935-42


CORN: DISTRIBUTION OF APRIL 1 STOCKS, UNITED STATES.
AVERAGE 1929-33. AND 1939-42


BUSHELS
( MILLIONS I
1.600

1.400

1.200

1.000

800

600


Other -- Other unsealed
- stocks I Held by the Governmnent
Stocks on Sealed *
_ farms LI Unsealed


AV. 1929-33


1939


1940


1941


1942


* INCLUDES OLD CORN RESEALED
&INCLUDES I1 MILLION BUSHELS SEALED BY FARMERS IN COUNTRY ELEVATORS


U 5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39101 BUPEAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


THE RECORD DISAPPEARANCE OF CORN D U R I N G JANUARY-MARCH REDUCED
STOCKS ON APRIL I TO 1,405 MILLION BUSHELS, 39 MILLION BUSHELS SMALLER
THAN THE RECORD STOCKS ON APRIL I LAST YEAR. MUCH OF THE C 0 R N OWNED
BY THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN SOLD DURING THE PAST YEAR. DISAPPEARANCE OF
CORN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MARKETING YEAR
AND THE CARRY-OVER OF CORN NEXT OCTOBER I MAY BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT SMALL-
ER THAN A YEAR EARLIER. (SEE TABLE 2 FOR DATA).



-^


T


400

200

0







APRIL 1942


Table 1.- Market prices of feeds and livestock-feed price ratios,
April 1940, 1941, and February-April 1942


Item 'Unit : Apr. :
: : 1940 : 1941 :
: : Ct. Ct .


Grains
Corn No. 3 Yellow, Chicago ................:
1!o. 3 Yellow, Kansas City ............:
Oats No. 3 White, Chicago .................:
No. 3 White, Minneapolis .............:
Barley No. 3, Minneapolis ................:
Wheat No. 2 Hd. Winter, Kansas City **......:
Rye No. 2, Minneapolis ....................:
Soybeans No. 3 Yellow, Chicago ......t......

Byproduct Feeds
Standard bran, Minneapolis ...........*...:
Chicago ............. ......:
Buffalo ....................
Standard middlings, Minneapolis ...........
Chicago ...............:
Buffalo ...............:
Cottonseed meal, 41% protein, Chicago .....:
41% protein, Memphis ..... :
Soybean meal, 41% protein, Chicago ........ :
Linseed meal, 37% protein, Minneapolis ....:
37% protein, Buffalo ......:..
Peanut meal, 45% protein, S.E. milling
points ......................
Copra meal, Los Angeles
White hominy feed, Chicago ................:
Gluten feed, 23o protein, Chicago .........:
Tankage, digester, 60%, Chicago ...........
Meat scraps, Chicago ......................:
Fish meal, San Francisco ..................:
Brewers' dried grains, Milwaukee ..........:
Distillers' dried grains, Cincinnati ...... :
Alfalfa meal, No. 1 fine, Kansas City ..... :


Bu.: 62.5
" : 62.1
" = 43.1
" : 39.7
" : 55.7
" :105.7
:" 69.5
" .J9.4

: Dol.
Ton: 24.35
" : 26.35
" : 27.90
" s 24.45
" : 26.60
" : 26.80
" 36.95
" ; 30.80
" 29.65
s 30.70
:" 32.00


30.85
18.95
23.95
22,30
47.50
48.00
51.35
24.60
27.90
22.65


69.1
63.1
39,0
35.4
52.4
87.2
56.5
119.5

Dol.
21.15
22.70
24 20
21.25
23.10
23.80
31.25
25.20
27.50
28.50
27.50

24.20
30.80
28.25
20.60
53.00
50.00
70.40
20.30
25.40
20.75


Indexes of Livestock-Feed Price Ratios 3/
Hog-corn ratio, Chicago, 1920-39 = 100 ........: 71
Beef-corn ratio, Chicago, 1920-39 = 100 .......:120
Butterfat-feed ratio, United States, 1920-39 = :
100 .. ...................... .. ... ..... .. : 88
Egg-feed ratio, United States, 1931-40 = 100 ..: 92


99 123 126 143
115 12F 112 120


106
121


81 80 4/ 91
103 112 1/118


I/ Grain prices, average for week ended April 18, byproduct feed prices as of
April 14.
2/ No. 3 Yellow.
/ Index numbers above 100 indicate that ratios are favorable tc livestock pro-
ducers. See table 1, FdS-31.
4/ Estimated.


Feb.
Ct.

81.9
77.4
55.9
53.1
7?.l
12 .1
78 1
18f .9

Dol
3 :.55
& .15
33.75
33.00
34.65
35.40
43.60
31 .90
46.45
42.50
37.60

45.70
49.50
33.20
31.00
80.00
75.00
77.40
35 60
39 .40
32 20


- 2 -


1942
Mar.
Ct.

81.7
78.8
54.0
51.5
69.6
121.0
75.5
186.0

Dol.
35.2C
37.1C0
39. 50
34.75
36.60
37 .90
42.6C
37 .OC
44.85
42.00
36.3C

45. 35
51.10
31. 15
31.6(
78.8(
74.0(
77.5(
32.1(
34.7
32.0(


:Apr .1/
Ct.

82.0
79.2
54.5
51.9
70.2
114.0
72.1
179.8

Dol.
38.00
39.50
41.50
38.00
39.25
38.50
S42.25
35.50
40.60
38.00
33.00

46.25
50.00
31.00
27.00
0 74.00
0 70.00
0 77.50
0 27.50
5 29.00
0 31.40









FdS-33


-- -- -- -- -- -- --- u-------- a---
THE FEED SITUATION


Summary

The record disappearance of corn in the United States during January-

March reduced stocks to 1,405 million bushels on April 1, 39 million bushels

below April 1 stocks last year. Disappearance of corn is expected to con-

tinue heavy and carry-over next October 1 may be between 500 and 550

million bushels, compared with the 1941 carry-over of 646 million bushels.

The oats carry-over next July 1 is expected to be about one-fourth smaller

than last yoar. The total feed grain supply for 1942-43, with an average

growing season, may be about 5 percent less than the 1941-42 supply, or

about a 10-percent reduction per animal unit.

Prices of feed grains will probably average higher in ?342-43 than

in 1941-42, but prices of high protein feeds may be a little Itwer as a

result of the prospective large production of these feeds. Th3 loan on

1942 corn may have less influence on feed prices than loans made during any

of the past 4 years.

A joint arrangement was approved early in April by the President and

the Prime Vinister of Canada to increase the production of oats, barley,

and flaxseed in Canada and of oil-bearing crops in the United States.

Larger production of oats and barley in Canada will provide more adequate

supplies for the expanding livestock program in Canada, and any excess of

production over Canadian needs will be available for supplementing United

States feed supplies in exchange for domestically produced fats and oils.

The first official estimate of the Argentine corn crop is 362 million

bushels, 40 million bushels smaller than the 1941 crop. The carry-over of


- 3 -






APRIL 1942


old corn in Argentina on April 1 was the largest on record, however, and

total supplies are estimated to be a little larger than the 1941-42 supply

of about 655 million bushels.

-- April 28, 1942

REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

BACKGPOUTID.- Supplies of feed grains and byproduct feeds have
been increasing each year since 1936. For 1941-42 the supply
of feed grains was the largest in over 20 years and the
supply of high-protein feed was the largest on record. Dis-
appearance of corn was smaller than production during the
years 1937-40, and the carry-over, including Government-
owned corn, increased to the largest on record. Disappear-
ance of feed grains was large during the past year because
of the sharp increase in livestock numbers and production.
Prices of feed grains and byproduct feeds advanced sharply
during 1941, largely because of the increased demand from
producers of livestock and livestock products.

January-March Disappearance of
Corn Largest on Record

The disappearance of corn during the first quarter of 1942 totaled
773 million bushels, 31 percent greater than in this quarter last year, and
the largest on record. This increase in the disappearance of corn reflects
the heavy feeding of livestock during the past several months and the in-
creased utilization of corn for industrial purposes. During the first half
of the present marketing year, beginning October 1, total disappearance of
corn, including corn fed as silage, was 1,913 million bushels, or about
200 million bushels greater-than disappearance in this period of 1940-41.
This heavy disappearance of corn reduced April 1 stocks to 1,405 million
bushels, which is 3 percent snm.llr than the record stocks of corn on
April 1 last year. Disappearance of oats, on the other hand, was compara-
tci4rely-light- totaling only 322 million bushels, which was slightly smaller
- than in this quarter of 1941.

Distribution of April 1
Corn Stocks

Stocks of corn on farms on April 1 totaled 1,287 million bushels,
or about 88 million bushels greater than the farm stocks of April 1 last
year. Of this quantity, about 2e2 million bushels were under seal compared
with 299 million bushels a year ago, leaving 125 million bushels more un-
sealed corn on farms April 1 this year than last. Stocks of corn owned by
the Government at country points and in terminal elevators on April 1
totaled only 75 million bushels compared with 231 million bushels a year
earlier. The much smaller holdings of corn by the Government reflect the
heavy sales of Government-owned corn during the past year.


- 4 -








FdS-33


Table 2.- Corn: Distribution of April 1 stocks, 1939-42


Item


Stocks on farms:
Old corn resealed ..........
New corn sealed ............
Sealed on farms ..........
Unsealed on farms ..........
Total on farms ...........
Other stocks:
Held by Government -
Steel bins ...............
Country elevators ........
Terminal elevators ......
Sub-terminal elevators ...
Total held by Government

Sealed by farmers in
country elevators ......
Unsealed, other ..........
Total other stocks .....
Total stocks ...........


1939 1940 1941 1942
: Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

: 29 149 2C,0 167
: 230 302 9 95
259 451 2&9 262
: S92 822 9(C 1,025
, 1,221 1,273 1,199 1,287


--- 61 124 48
--- 15 35 6
: 14 12 58 18
--- 3 14 3
: 14 91 231 75


S 12 --- ---
: 29 28 13 43


: 143
: 1,264


131
1,404


244
1,443


118
1,405


Stocks owned by Government and under seal on April 1 estimated on the basis of
data compiled by the Commodity Credit Corporation.

Government Sales of Corn and Wheat

During the period April 1-18 about 4-1/2 million bushels of corn were
sold by the Government, which reduced the total quantity of corn owned by
the Government to about 70 million bushels. Sales of Governrmnt corn have
been smaller in recent weeks then earlier in the year, as th. quantities
sold have been limited to corn for immediate utilization. Tie sale price
on corn is 86-1/2 cents per bushel, f.o.b., Chicago, in carloid lots.

Since the Government wheat feed program was started in January, about
22 million bushels of wheat have been sold for feed. Approximately one-
half of this wheat has been sold in the Eastern States, about 30 percent on
the P&acific Coas-, and most of the remainder in the Corn Belt. The sale
price of whera-t v:ries by .egions. In the Corn Belt, the sale price has been
gene-:-lly above the farm price of c,rn. Advances in corn prices in recent
weeks End the difricult-y in securing corn have caused an increased move-
ment of feed wheat into the Corn Belt.

Crop and Pasture Conditions


Pasture
of the country
recent years.
April 1 was 82


conditions on April 1 were unusually good in nearly all parts
and prospects for early pasture this spring are the best in
The condition of pastures for the country as a whole on
percent of normal compared with 77 percent of normal last


- 5 -







APRIL 1942


year. Moisture was ample and prospects for early spring pasture are re-
ported to be unusually good in the western Corn Belt and in most of the
Great Plains area where droughts have greatly reduced the feeding value of
pastures in many of the past 10 years. In Texas, pasture conditions on
April 1 were not as good as a year ago, but recent rains may have improved
the situation there. On the West Coast the condition of pastures was belaw
average and not nearly so good as on April 1 last year.

In mid-April, oat seeding was completed in most of the Great Plains
area and had advanced rapidly in the Upper Mississippi Valley. In the lower
Missouri and Ohio Valleys, however, there has been too much rain, which has
delayed the usual spring operations. In Oklahoma, green bugs are reported
to be damaging oats and barley. The rains in Texas which have occurred
since April 1 have benefited the oats and barley crops. Corn planting has
progressed rapidly in the South Atlantic area and in the Southwest. Some
corn has been planted as far North as southern Iowa.

Hog-Corn Price Ratio Most
Favorable in Recent Years

The hog-corn price ratio increased, as a result of further advances
in hog prides during the past morth, to 17.4, Chicago basis, which is the
highest level in recent years. This favorable ratio, accompanied by rela-
tively high prices paid for fet hogs, is resulting in heavy consumption of
corn for hog feeding. For the week ended April 18, the beef-corn price
ratio also was considerably more favorable to cattle feeders than the
long-time average. The number of cattle on feed April 1 was about 2 per-
cent smaller than on that date last year.

As a result of recent Government action to support the price of
92-score butter at Chicago at 36 cents per pound, the price of butterfat
advanced during the past month, which is contrary to the usual movement at
this season. In consequence, the mid-April butterfat-feed price ratio,
adjusted for seasonal varietior, was more favorable to dairymen than in
the past 5 months. There was little change in prices of eggs and poultry
feed during the past month, and the egp-feed price ratio was about un-
changed. After adjusting for seasonal variation, however, it is somewhat
more favorable to poultrymen than a month ago.

Byproduct Feeds

Cottonseed cake and meal production in March was about 25,000 tons
smaller than in March last year and about 37,000 tons smaller than in
February. Production of heat millfeeds also was smaller in karch and
early April than last year. Production of distillers' dried grains, on
the other hand, is running about 50 percent larger than a year ago and
about double production 2 years ago. Production of brewers' dried grains
and corn gluten feed is also much greater than during the past 2 or 3 years.
Revised data for corn gluten feed production are shown in table 10. The
flaxseed crush and output of linseed cake and meal in the first quarter of
1941 were much the largest on record for the period.


- 6 -







FdS-33 7 -

Feed Prices

Prices of corn advanced slightly during the past month, oat prices were
about unchanged, and barley prices increased considerably from the low levels
reached about the middle of MErch. Corn prices are now a little higher than
they were in Jbnuary, while oats and barley prices are generally 3 to 6 cents
lower.

Prices of wheat millfeeds have advanced about 4 dollars per ton dur-
ing the past month, and are now at about the highest level in 20 years.
Prices of all the oilseed cakes and i. als have declined since the middle of
March, with the greatest decline in the price of soybean meal, which is down
about 6 dollars p-r ton. Brewers' and distillers? grains have also declined,
which is partly seasonal, but it also reflects the increased production of
these feeds. Tankage end meat scrap prices have been lowered during the
past month to bring them in line with the new price ceilings announced by
the Office of Price Administration March 26.

Canada-United States Arrangement Affest-
ing Feed Grains and Oilseeds Announced

It was announced April 10 that an arrangement affecting oil-bearing
crops, oats, and barley in the United States and Canada had been approved by
the President and the Prime Minister of Canada. This arrangement provides
for increased production of oil-bearing crops in the United States and in-
creased production of oats, barley, end flaxseed in Canada to meet the war-
time needs of both countries. Through this arrangement the production of
oats, barley,and flaxseed in Canada vill be expanded and quantities in ex-
cess of Canadian requirements will be made available to the United States.
Increased production of oil-bearing crops in the United States will make
possible exports of fats and oils to Canada. The recommendations made by
the Joint Economic Committees of these two countries follow:

A. That the Governments of the two countries, through their ap-
propriate departments or agencies, undertake the following:

(1) The United States to increase its acreage of oil-producing
cops with the object of alleviating the impending shortage
of oils in both the United States and Canada.

(2) Canada to increase its acreage of flaxseed to provide as
large a volume as possible for domestic needs and an excess
to offset in part the reduction in North American imports
of vegetable oil and oil seeds.

(3) Canada to increase its acreage of oats and barley with the
object of obtaining adequate supplies of feed grains for the
expanded livestock program of Canada and supplementary sup-
plies for the United States.

B. That in order to encourage such a program, while at the same
time providing necessary assurances in the matter of market
outlets, the respective Governments agree, effective from
next autumn, that:







APRIL 1942 8 -

(1) Canada shall facilitate t1he delivery in the United States, at
the then current United States prices, of whatever quantity of
flaxseed, cats, and barley Canada may be in a position to supply;

(2) The United States shall not impose additional restrictions on
the importation of flaxseed, oats, and barley moving from
Canada to the United States;

(3) The United States shall facilitate the sale to Canada, at the
then current United States prices, of whatever quantity of
vegetable oils or vegetable oil seeds the United States may be
in a position to supply;

(4) Canada shall not impose additional restrictions on the importa-
tion of vegetable oils or vegetable oil seeds moving from the
United States to Canada.

Argeyntine Corn Supply at ITear
Record Lrvel

The supply of corn in Argentina available for feed, fuel, and export
during 1942-43 (year beginning April 1) may exceed the record supply available
last year. The first official estimate of the 1942 Argentine corn crop is
362 million bushels, about 40 million bushels below the 1941 crop. Exports
of corn from Argentina during the past y=ar have been the smallest in many
years, totaling about 13 million bushels. Stocks of old corn on hand on
April 1 are estimated to be 320 million bushels, i..aking a prospective supply
for 1942-43 of about 682 million bushels, the. largest on record. With exports
of corn limited, it is expected that a considerable part of the old corn
now on hand in Arcgntina and some of ..ns new corn produced will be used for
fuel during the coming year. Increased feeding of corn to cattle and other
livestock is also encouraged by th- G-overnrmcnt.

OUTLOOK

Prospective Carry-Over of Feed Grains

Present indications are that the United States carry-over of corn next
October 1 will be about 500 to 550 million bushels. This compares with a
carry-over of 646 million bushels last year and a 1928-32 average carry-over
of 163 million bushels. The record disappearance of corn during the first
quarter of 1942 reduced stocks on April 1 to 1,405 million bushels, 39 million
bushels smaller than on April 1 last year. The quantity of corn fed to hogs
is expected to continue much gre-attr than average during the remainder of
tha marketing year, since hog numbers are much above average and the hog-
corn ratio is unusually favorable. The quantity of corn used for industrial
purposes between now and next October 1 -ill also be much above average
and may be R Nhut 9". million bushels--greater than in thi.- period of 1941.
The quantity of corn fed to cattle arid poultry v"il] -depend to a-considerable
extent on th, outturn of the oats arid barley crops and on the rate at which
Government wheat is purchased for livestock feed. Stocks of oats carried
over into 19A2-43 are expected to bc about one-fourth less than the carry-
over of 223 million bushels on July 1 last year.










Prospective Supplies and Ds-i;.o.sr.r.e
in 192-43

With 1937-41 average yieldl: :.n the prospective ncr=ares for 1942,
production of feed gra-.i.s -"ill Le a little smaller than in 1941. If
the carry-ov--r of corn .ni at i:7 boat as indicated above, the 1942-43
supply cf feed grains may bV about 5 norcent smaller than in 1941-42.
The number of train-conse-inig an:-iral units on farms during 1942 is
expected to increase about 5 or 6 Fpercent. In this event the supply of
feel grains per anijr.1l .nit La" be hbout 10 percent smaller in 1942-43
than in 1v'l-42. Tric-easin pr'.ouction of livestock and livestock products
during tn- n- xt year or so rill mr.an a larger disappearance of feed
grTains. Thi m'.y, ce imet in pact by increased purchase's of Government
wheat iocr livesto-k feeding --ni s3..-e increase in imports of oats and
barley frmn C-.:ada. P,'-.iducti:n of hiiZh-protein feeds is expected to be
somewhat iarcer per anri-n1 tljan in other recent years. But even with
al]cwance fuor thes3 increases in f-eed supplies, it now appears probable
that the 19.-2 oroducticn of feed m'rins will not meet 1942-43 requirements,
and there pr':.Ly.i L ;il e a r-dc rion in the total carry-over of feed
rains d-.i- l742-3. ,'everh-l .:-, stocks at the end of the 1942-43
season a,- lik-ly to r.m-iin b: -'e :.-:c.*re unless crop yields of corn and
oats are r e:.!c:d in 1-.? by :i'-ouL-i or other causes.

Outlook for FeeJ Pric .s

It is prcball- tri-t th,. l.-v~l of feed grain prices in 1942-43 will
be higher tiian ;r. ,i?4- ~, ca;us of the smaller supply of feed grains
per ani ml arnd -th strn.--r d 1 r i] prospect. Prizes of oilseed meals,
how?'.'.-r, :-m-.: av'rage lirtic io-:.rer t-, in the current season as a result
of the pr: -':cti;e Is.'".' sopli--.: of t.ese feeds. Changes in feed
pric.-S3 cd'j-ng ti. r iex.; feX -V ;.Lths 1.rill be influenced largely by prospects
for thi 1-4,2 croPs. If thes crops turn out average or below, corn
prices ra:y 6- at .iuch a l.'I' th '-t th 1942 loan rate may have less
influence on f'-ed pricu.: th'-n i r. -[ny of the past 4 years.

V.'HOIESALE FRIES OF IC=IG'{-FOTIIN FEEDS, TERII.AL VARKfS
Ii:E: P.'IP.Tr-P, 1935-42

Suppli: of high-protein f:.-d ;- 'r increased greatly during the
past several years. Pric-s of these feeds have become increasingly
important in inr.'luncn.- the kind rf rations fed to livestock and the
eff L.'.ieic;, li--jtrT. pro..liction. Iniex numbers of prices of the
iir-crtart riTh-nri-Le-in feeds hi ve be-n computed for the first time and
will be .:ented mcrith!-ly in this r-:;po-rt. In 1941 the total ex.p.'_ii-itlure
of ijnite 1 -,te- farm-r-s for f?:d was 1,126 million dollars, of which about
25 percent :'s cpe:nt for 11 princir.-,l high protein feeds: soybean, cotton-
seed, l-,;:-ed, and peanut. cakes and meols, tasr-'e, meat scraps, fish
merL, c,'-.-= cake and meal, gluten feel, and distillers' and brewers'
dried g:- ins. The preparation of a series of index numbers prices of
these f-'ls is ccmolicated by the marked changes in supplies during the
past 15years. The sharo incr-eaze in soybean production has greatly
increased supplies of scybean cak3 end meal in the Corn Belt. The war,


FdS-33


- 1 -







APRIL 1942


by shutting off European markets, has greatly increased supplies of lin-
seed meal available to eastern feeders. Consequently, changes have
taken place in price relationships between the different high-protein
feeds and in the pattern of orice differences between areas. In order
that these changes may be reflected in the price index, prices at nore
than one market have been included for several feeds (see table 3).

High-protein feeds may be divided into three groups: (1) high-
protein oilseed cakes and meals, (2) livestock byp-oduct feeds and fish
meal, and (3) other protein feeds, namely, copra nr-al, cluten fecd, and
brewers' and distillers' grains. Prices of the f.-Ids in groups 1 ;nd 3
ar'e to a considerable extent independent of prices of 'he f--eds in ,vroup
20since the former are consumed largly. by cattle, while snir.'l byproduct
feeds and fish meal are consumed prri.nipally b:,' hoFs anid rltoui.try. In
recent years, however, large quantities of so.,rtan riL.al have bten f*-d to
hogs and poultry. Soybean meal is becoming popular as a suppl-ment to
tankage, meat scraps, and fish meal, pric':s of which havy advanced more
than prices of oilseed meals durir' th0 pact 1-ear.

Table 3.- Wholesale price-s of birh-prot.in f:-ds o-r ton
and price- irnd::-s L-v c-r-un., 19`35-41


: F'.P i,^.-
Item
. _5:________ 1: Di6 : 193 : .- : :- 1.r
:Dol'a.-s :3 i-Ire Donlar_ Dc'IJs Dol1ars Do lars PD lors


High-protein oilseed cake and r-a:
Cottonseed ,/ ................: 30.26
Soybean 2/ .................... 31.14
Linseed 3 ....................: 31.~9
Peanut 4 ....................: 824.
Livestock byproduct feeds and
fish meal ......................
Tankage, Chicago .............: 4 2. 5
Meat scraps, Chicago ......... : 44.3iT
* Fish meal, San Francisco.... 29.45
Other protein feeds .
Copra meal, Los Angeles ......: 24.00
Gluten feed, Chicago .........: 25.00
Distillers' dried grains, :
Cincinnati .................. 25.65
Brewers' dried grains,
Milwaukee ................... 1.55

High protein oilseed cake and meal: 100
Livestock byproduct feeds and
fish meal ......... .............: 83
Oth-er protein feeds .............: 9?
'Wholesale prices of 11 high pro- :
tein feeds .....................: 97


:3.54
r .50




53.30
50.70
44.25


24.L26

LC. 50




44.C 0
14 O


27.73
2.3. .
364J5



54.65
53.-25
45.20


31.15
2. 33
2Q. 51
26.35


4,6.10
L4.75
50.10


,4.17
33.86
1.53
5?. 53
2.13


59.50
56.55
66.30


28.20 32.25 27.50 25.95 20.90 33.75
25.60 29.70 21.20 20.15 22.50 23.80

26.85 33.35 27.00 27.45 27.75 29.50

21.15 ?6..5 14.40 19.20 22.10 24.90
Inde:-: ntm-brs (1935-3- = 100)
102 110 8. '4 98 110


101 107
102 121

10.2 115


103 134
92 105


90 46 98 114


1/ Prices at four markets, 'vsiz-ht.d follows: L>mphis, .333; Fort Worth, .333;
Kansas City, .167; Atlanta, .167. /J Prices :,t t,'rn markets, weight d as follows:
Chicago, .667; Kansas City, .333. '/ Prices at there : mark-_.ts, wA1.-ighted as follorvs:
Minneapolis, .60; Buffalo, .30; San Francisco, .10. 4/ Southern milling points.


- 10 -





FdS-33


- 11 -


Feed Prices Included in the Index

Wholesale prices of 11 feeds have been used in constructing the index of
high-protein feed prices. These are divided into the three groups mentioned
above. The oilseed cakes and meals, excluding copra cake and meal, contain on
the average about 35 percent digestible protein. The average digestible
protein content of animal byproduct feeds and fish meal is about 51 percent,
and for other protein feeds about 21 percent. The index of prices of these
feeds is constructed from 1935 to date. Prices of meat scraps, fish meal, and
brewers' dried grains have not been compiled for years prior to 1935. Prices
of cottonseed meal and linseed meal have been compiled by the Department of
Agriculture back to 1910. Tankage, gluten feed, and peanut meal prices are
available back to about 1920, and price series for the other four feeds were
started soon after 1930.

Method of Construction

Prices of the feeds shown in table 3 have been combined into group index
numbers, using the weighted aggregate method of index construction. The
weights used are based on apparent domestic disappearance of these feeds during
the calendar years 1937-41, excluding consumption of cottonseel cake and meal
for fertilizer. The series thus reflects changes in prices paid for high-
protein feeds by domestic feeders. The index numbers are base on average
prices in the period 1935-39 as equal to 10C. I.orthly and manual index
numbers for each of the three groups are shown in table 4.

Table 4.- Index numbers of wholesale prices of high-protein
feeds, by groups, monthly, 1935-142

S1935-39 = 100
Year: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aux:Sept.,: Oct,: Nov,: Dec.-Average
:__High-protein oilseed meals
1935: 129 124 11 114 112 103 92 79 76 S4 g2 83 100
1936: 81 78 76 79 82 87 120 132 122 115 121 130 102
1937: 133 130 129 144 146 12Q 119 102 92 89 92 90 116
19358: 93 93 90 37 S7 86 90 87 85 86 67 90 98
1939: 90 87 89 90 92 91 87 83 105 97 106 110 94
1940: 110 105 105 105 103 90 86 S!3 7 89 102 101 98
1941: 99 1I 90 92 92 97 110 11s 13S 127 128 135 110
1942: 142 142 139
Livestock byproduct feeds and. fish meal
1935: 92 8s s4 78 78 77 76 77 79 87 90 92 83
1936: 95 97 95 90 89 92 103 111 115 105 107 114 101
1937: 126 125 117 117 114 108 103 99 90 97 93 94 107
1938: 102 105 102 99 92 90 97 95 S9 93 96 107 97
1939: 110 101 106 los los 107 103 100 123 123 120 117 111
1940: 119 111 105 107 110 101 101 94 98 92 99 98 103
1941: 105 110 112 128 132 135 145 141 151 150 112 152 134
1942: 165 170 16
S___Other protein feeds __
1935: 130 124 107 97 938 93 86 s3 81 89 33 91 98
r 1936: 87 79 74 oS 70 74 ill 140 136 123 124 140 102
1937: 146 144 127 140 14o 124 11g 110 97 97 103 108 121
1938: 112 112 98 90 s6 s6 89 8S S5 82 50 81 91
1939: 80 77 78 81 S4 83 79 80 108 102 100 105 8S
1940: 107 100 92 91 91 78 77 79 89 90 100 o10 92
1941: 101 90 g8 91 90 93 105 111 123 120 117 128 105
I 1942: 139 142 13q9__ __






APRIL 1942


Domestic disappearance of these feeds has changed considerably during
the period covered, especially for the high-protein oilseed cakes and meals.
Weights used in constructing the index were taken as constants, however, since
the period covered is relatively short and the correction made by variable
weights would not result in an important change in the index. If the series
were extended back into the years prior to 1935, moving weights would be needed
to allow for changes in production of soybean meal, a feod which formerly was
relatively unimportant.

The weights used in computing index numbers for high-protein oilseed
cakes and meals are as follows: Cottonseed meal 55, soybean moal 32, linseed
meal 11, and peanut meal 2. Prices of the feeds in the other two groups are
weighted by the 1937-41 average production plus net imports for the feeds for
which import data are available. The weights applied to prices of these feeds
are: Animal high-protein feeds tgan]age 39, neat scraps 24, and fish meal 37;
other protein feeds gluten feed 5S, copra neal 15, distillers' grains 17,
and brewerst grains 10.

The index numbers of the three groups h7ve been combined into a single
index series by weighting each of the three series by the estimated average
quantity of that group of feeds consulted in the period 1937-41 and the
average protein content of each group. The protein contents of the individual
feeds were not c-nsidcred in weighting prices of these feeds to compute the
group index numbers, since the percentage protein of the feeds within each
group did not differ greatly. But the difference in average protein content
between groups is considerable, so the average protein content of each of the
three groups was included in computing the weights for combining the groups
into one series. The weights used in combining the group index numbers are
as follows: Group I, 6?; Group II, 19; and Group III, 13. Monthly index
numbers for the 11 high-protein feeds are shown in table 5.

Table 5.- Index numbers of wholesale prices of 11 high-
protein feeds, 1'933-42

1935-39 = 100
S:""Aver-
Year: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug. Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dr-:c.,
.. age

1935: 128 117 110 105 103 97 83 79 77 85 85 s6 97
1936: 84 82 79 80 82 s8 116 129 123 114 119 128 102
1937: 133 131 126 139 139 124 116 102 93 91 93 93 115
1938: 97 98 93 90 88 87 91 88 86 87 88 92 90
1939: 93 88 91 92 94 93 89 s6 109 103 o10 111 96
'1940: 111 105 103 10o4 103 91 87 8S 89 90 101 101 98
1941: 101 95 94 99 99 104 116 122 139 131 129 137 114
1942: 146 147 144


Seasonal Variation

Prices of the high-protein feeds tend to be lowest in the summer and early
fall and highest in the winter and spring. This reflects largely the increased
demand for these feeds in the winter and spring months, but the increase in


- 12 -









FdS-33


- 13 -


production of domestic oilseed cakes and meals during the late summer and fall
is also an important factor. The seasonal variation uf the miscellaneous
group is greater than for the other two groups, since t.-cse feeds are fed
largely to dairy cattle, and the: d'.:and varies more brb seas-ris thnn for the
other two groups. The se-iscnal variation in prices of oilsood meals is
moderated to some extent by the fact that demand is strongest in the winter
months when supplies are large. The seasonal variation in animal byproducts
reflects increased demand for these feeds during seasons when hog feeding is
heaviest.

The typical seasonal variation computed for the 11 high-protein feeds
by groups is shown in the table below. This was obtained by averaging the
median monthly ratios of actual data to 12-month moving ae ei.ges, centered,
during the period January 1935 through December 194l. Due to tho limited
number of years on which this seasonal pattern is based, it may be subject

Table 6.- Index of seasonal variation of 11 high-protein feeds, 1935-41

(Average of ye-tr = 100)
Item :Jan. Fcb.:.Mar "Apr.: May June 'JulyAug. Sept. Oct.irov.:Dec.

All groups ..,: 106 102 100 100 99 96 98 9h 90 99 102 10l
Oilseed meals : 105 102 101 100 99 96 100 94 97 99 102 106
Animal by-
products and :
fish meal ...: 107 104 101 102 101 97 97 95 9S 97 99 102
Other protein :
feeds ....... 110 102 96 96 96 92 95 94 103 102 104 110


to revision when data covering a longer period of time are available. The
magnitude of seasonal variation of high-protein feed prices, as a group, is
relatively unimportant. Changes from year to vear are much greater. For
this reason no adjustment for t,'pical seasonal variatio.'- has been made in the
monthly index numbers.


-- Malcolm Clough










APRIL 1942


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15 -

Table S.- Corn and oats" Total disappearance, United States,
by qi.rbers, 19539-42


Year : October- :T '- : Jul-
beginning : ecbe : April-June : Total
December rS -Sentember
October : : : : :
: I-illion Million Killion Million Million
: bushels b-ishels buEhels bushels bushels

: COfRl


1939
1940o
1941

Yfi=
beginning
July


]/ 1,142 6k2 436 273 2,493
: 1,124 477 321 2,510
I i/ 1,4o 773 __________ _______ ______

: July- Octobcr- : January- .
:Soctmbc.r : D.ccmbcr M: arch : April-June : Total
: Million Milli7n million n Million Million
: bushels b0-lI tb..hcls bushels bushels


1939 351 173 253 206 983
1940 : 352 239 327 251 1,169
1941 434 207 322

-/ Includcs corin hogged off anid icd as silage.


Table 9 .- Production and stocks of spccified b7 -'roc'v.ct foedd,
March 19L"D and 1941, January-4anirch 194?

Item : arch : 1942
0 -: l1',i "0 J-an : Feb. : iar-.
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: tors tor s tons tons tons

Production
Cottonseed cake and meal: 136.0 165.5 206. 176.g 139.7
Peanut cake and meal ... 4,3 16.s h.1 3.2 1.3
Gluten ferd and meal ...: 50,7 b6.7 82.1 75.5 S..O
Brewers daiszd grains ..: S.4 9.1 10.6 10.2 11.9
Distillers dried. grains: 14.1 1L,6 5,0.0 25.5 29.5
Wheat millLeeis .........: 345.4 364.0 401.0 3551.9


Stocks, end of month
Cottonseed cako and mcel: 175.1 3.'.6 370.6 372.2 53S.7
Peanut cake eand mcv. ...: 5.1 20.9 7.2 6.9 4.7
f


Fd.S-33










APRIL 1942


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?dS-33 17 -

Table 12.- Prices received by United States farmers for grains and hay, and
index of feed grain prices, March 1940 and 1941, January-NLrch 1942


Item
*
:*


Unit


Corn ......... ...:
Oats ................:
Barley ...............:
Grain sorghums ......:
Wheat ...... ......... :
Rye ............... .:
Soybean s ............:
Cottonseed ..........:
All hay .............
Alfalfa hay ..........:


Bushel
i
'I


'11
'I
w
Ton
it
11
*


: ar. : ""1942
: 1940 : 1941 : Jan. : Feb. : ?Far.
: Dollars Dollars Dollars 'liars Dollars


.560
.296
.461
.62
.850
.556
1.01
26.84
8.22
9 .34


Index of feed grain :
prices i/ ......... :1910-14 = 100: 89


.571
.337
.422
.48
.718
.431
.89
24.81
7.93
8.51


.727
.502
.608
.54
1.061
.652
1.65
43.24
10.15
11.78


87 115


.766
.520
.628
.56
1.049
.660
1.78
95.04
10.76
12.59


.784
.519
.619
.57
1.051
.643
1.79
44.18
11.03
12.99


123


y/ Corn, oats, and barley, weighted on b&sis of quantities fed to livestock dur-
ing 1955-39.

Table 13.- Prices of specified feeds per 100 pounds, April,1931-40 rver.-gcj 1940,


and 1941, February-April 1942,and April 1942


as a percentage of average


Item


Grains
Corn, ITo. 3 Yellow, Chicago .......:
Oats, No. 3 White, Chicago ........:
Barley, No. 3, Minneapolis ........:
Wheat, No. 2, Hard Winter,
Kansas City .. ......... ...... .. :
Rye, No. 2, Minneapolis ........... :

Byproduct feeds
Bran, Standard, Chicago ...........:
Middlings, Standard, Chicago ......:
Gluten feed, 23 percent, Chicago ..:
Hominy feed, YWhite, Chicago .......:
Cottonseed meal, 41 percent,Chicago:
Soybean meal, 41 percent, Chicago .:
Linseed meal, 37 percent,Minneapolis:
Tankage, digester, 60 percent,
Chicago .... ...... .. ..........
Brewers' dried grains, Milwaukee ..:
Distillers' dried grains,Cincinnati:


: Apr .

:Average:
:1931-40: 1940:


Dol. Dol.


1.12
1.08
1.32

1.45
1.03


1.14
1.14
1.06
1.15
1.50
1.47
1,.63

2.08
.94


1.12
1.35
1.16


^ : 1942
: : : :April 1942
: : Apr.: as a per-
1941: Feb.: Mar.: I/ :centage of
: ;: : : 1931-40'
; : : : *average
Dol. Dol. Do' Dol. Fct.


1.23
1.22
1.09


1.46
1.75
1.52


1.4'6
1 69
1.45


1.46
1.70
1.46


1.76 1.45 2.05 2. '- 1.90
1.24 1.01 1.39 1,.3 1.29


1.32
1.33
1.12
1.20
1.85
1.48
1.54

2.38
1.23
1.40


1.14
1.16
1 .03
1.41
1.56
1.38
1.42

2.65
1.02
1.27


1.71
1.73
1.55
1.66
2.18
2.32
2.12

4.00
1.78
1.97


1 L6
1.83
1.5F?
1.36
2.13
2.24
2.10

3.94
1.60
1.74


1.98
1.96
1.35
1.55
2.1.1
2.03
1.90

3.70
1.38
1.45


130
157
111

131
125


174
172
127
135
141
138
117

178
147


I/ Grains, average for week ended Apr. 18,


l_ j _


byproduct feeds as of Apr. 14.





UNiVERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08902 9788
.. ,;-.:..::. ..


1~' **.




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