ashi C., Ocober
:*.. "" ...
: n1 .
$..: .. *:... ... .
... ...: n .
Sow Bureau o. Crop Estimates) for the *s
.. ne.30, 1914.A. "
*CpRO E I as E t ll
*. n : *
... Ti shaB from Annual Reposts of the Department of AgricuLTure, 1914.1
W:i.:.,*.,D .. *O;cr 1"
4. ... .
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am. ,: L^ f JLap
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':. ., During
K- soreages p
M. ESTA BROOK4
Chief of B-ureau.
s of the
tes of t
methods which have
he total anoronriatio
atas) for the
ork of estimating
harvest time, and
cited States, includ-
animals, and the
was conducted by
hcal year 1914
aries in Washi
Bureau of S
n and $12S,
statistics (Crop Esti-
which $115,380 was
300 was lump sum.
bureau voluntary crop reporters and special correspondents
out the United States approximately as follows:
Number of voluntary crop reporters and special correspondents.
* a a *r C C 5 -. > ** a a a* a**i
a .. .... --
Township .. .. .....a.-
Special price...........- ....
Individual farm -............
Individual farm cotton. .....
Special cotton. .............
Mills and elevators...........
Live stock.....-- ...........
Live stock at market centers.
Special hops.... ........ ..
... 29, 445
... 7, 625
... 6, 066
.. 4, 334
.. 6, 995
-.. 5, 143
. .. 228
ut a a S *
Ia corn m..
o -- a a -
2eC0* aa. r- -
a a a* -t a a -
a a -** a
* a a a
jJ- ak ar at a a
*: a a 4a a a -
* a a a a a a
- a S S a
* -* a* a* a a.*
and beet sugar...
During the fiscal year 25,000 letters were
received, answered, and
filed, approximately 200,000 printed and duplicate form letters were
prepared and mailed to the field force, 2,000 accounts were subjected
Yearbooks, and a large number of
vegetable and flower seed, 18,(
other publications were mailed
.e bureau as a partial recognition
of their services. Approximately 354,176 sheets of tabular matter,
questionnaires, and form letters were run off on duplicating machines.
Nearly 800,000 schedule inquiries were folded and mailed to the field
force during the year, and the returns were tabulated, computed, and
summarized by the Division of Crop Reports.
In June, 1914,
the position of financial clerk was merged with that
thereby saving one salary at $1,800 per annum.
REORGANIZATION OF BUREAU OF STATISTICS.
COMMITTEE ON REORGANIZATION.
With a view to improving the crop reporting ser\ ice, a committee
was appointed at the beginning of the fiscal year composed of Milton
Whitney, Chief of the Bureau of Soils, J. L. Coulter, expert in charge
of the Division of Agricultural Statistics of the Bureau of the Census,
.7rllv%,,,, nr, n r. Ynn ~ n1 ~n T)rncr nnr a~n fl an nfl~ In 5Unn flW
BUREAU OF STATISTICS.
FUNCTIONS OF REORGANIZED BUREAU.
(1) The functions of the reorganized bureau should be to collect
anid compile, abstract, analyze, summarize, and interpret data relating
to agricultural industries, and to make and publish periodically crop
and live-stock forecasts and estimates, including acreage, yield, and
value of farm crops, in cooperation with other bureaus and offices of
the Department of Agriculture and the statistical agencies of other
branches of the National and State Governments.
CHANGE OF TITLE.
(2) A change of title from "Bureau of Statistics" to "Bureau of
Crop Estimates" was recommended in order to indicate more clearly
the functions of the bureau and the nature of the results of its work.
This change of title was adopted in the act making appropriations for
the fiscal year 1915 and became effective on July 1, 1914.
BRANCHES OF THE BUREAU AS REORGANIZED.
(3) The organization recommended by the committee consisted
of an Administrative Office, a Division of Crop Reports, a Division of
Crop Records, a Crop Reporting Board, and a Committee on Coopera-
tion, these units of organization to be made up as follows:
The Administrative Office consists of a chief of bureau and an assist-
ant chief of bureau, a chief clerk, and a small clerical force to handle
routine matters of administration, including supervision of the per-
sonnel, mails, and files, purchase and custody of office supplies and
stationery, financial records, and the bureau library.
The Division of Crop Reports is made up of a field force under the
direct supervision of the chief of division and an office force in charge
of an assistant chief of division. The field force consists of field
agents, one for eac
mation and report
corps of crop spec
crops, each to spe
the region of its g
large list of volu
office force of the
involved in mailing
to the field force
Crop Reporting B
The Division of
h State (or group of small States), to collect infor-
t monthly regarding the crops in each State; a
ialists, one for each of the more important special
ecialize on a single crop and to travel throughout
;rowth, disregarding State lines, in order to furnish
upon acreage, condition, yield, and prices; and a
nteer county and township crop reporters. The
division wili continue to handle the clerical work
lg the vast number of schedules and questionnaires
each month, and when received back to open,
and tabulate the returns and make all necessary
submission to the Administrative Office or to the
Crop Records consists of a chief of division, several
ANNUAL REPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OF0
The Crop Reporting Board consists of the chief of bureau, the
assistant chief of bureau, the chief of the Division of Crop Reports,
a statistical scientist of the Division of Crop Records, and two field
agents representing different crop regions of the country, who are
changed at each meeting of the board. As in the past, this board
assembles one or more times each month in a room which is kept
locked and from which all telephones and other means of communi-
cation are disconnected. From the special reports of the field force
the board prepares the final estimates of the bureau, which, when
approved by the Secretary or Acting Secretary, are issued to the
press and telegraphed to the station directors of the Weather Bureau
in each State at the hour and minute previously fixed and announced
by the Secretary.
The Committee on Cooperation, as a part of the administrative
organization, was recommended with a view to securing the closest
cooperation between the Bureau of Crop Estimates and other bureaus
and divisions of this and other departments of the Government, in
order to coordinate and articulate the forecasting, estimating, and
statistical work of all those organizations so far as it relates to agri-
CHANGES IN FIELD FORCE.
(4) Probably the most important change recommended by the
committee on reorganization relates to the strengthening of the field
force of the Division of Crop Reports. In addition to the large force
of voluntary county, township, and special crop reporters who serve
-without compensation other than such seeds and publications as the
department can supply, the field force consisted of 22 special field
agents in the classified civil service at salaries ranging from $1,200
to $2,250 per annum, the average being $1,675, each special field
agent being assigned to a group of States; also 47 State statistical
agents, one for each State, at salaries ranging from $300 to $1,100
per annum, the average salary being $582.
The special field agents were with few exceptions trained crop
reporters and their work was generally satisfactory, but the committee
felt that the territory assigned to them was too large for them to
cover effectively, even with a large corps of volunteer aids reporting
to them monthly, and that much better results could be secured if
their territory could be limited to a single State. The State statis-
tical agents were not in the classified civil service, many of them
were without previous training or experience in the work of crop
reporting, and because of their small salaries they were required to
devote only a portion of their time to the work. Practically all of
them were regularly employed outside of the department and their
.rvicrr.t nna State, sftitstaaai ] aa.nnt wn
To supplement the work of the regular field agents in each State,
the reorganization committee recommended the employment of crop
specialists, one or more for each of the important special crops, such
as cotton, tobacco, rice, fruit, and truck crops, possessing the same
qualifications and performing the same duties as the State field agents,
but devoting their entire time to specializing on the particular crops
to which they are assigned and traveling throughout the entire region
of their growth. In this way it is hoped that as these crop specialists
acqlure experience ana Knowled
authorities on these special crops,
become the recognized authorities
1 1 1
Lge they will become recognized
just as the field agents will in time
he bureau already had a special agent engaged in re
tobacco crop and another reporting on the rice crop,
es were changed to crop specialist on tobacco and cr
on rice." resnectivelv. In addition to these two SD
"crop specialist on cotton" was appointed in January,
REASSIGNMENT OF WORK.
(5) The various projects or lines of work, approximately 45 in
number, carried on in the bureau, were carefully scrutinized by the
reorganization committee, and as the result of their recommendations
the work was reassigned as follows:
WORK ASSIGNED TO THE DIVISION
OF CROP REPORTS.
1. Estimates of crops and live stock; acreage, condition,
2. Estimates of fruit and nut production, the nonstatistical part of this project to
be assigned to the Office of Markets and the Office of Horticultural Investigations of
the Bureau of Plant Industry.
3. Estimates of the causes and extent of crop damage, in cooperation
Bureau of Plant Industry, Weather Bureau, and Bureau of Entomology.
4. Compilation of prices of articles bought by farmers, in cooperation
Rural Organization Service.
WORK ASSIGNED TO THE DIVISION
OF CROP RECORDS.
1. Annual estimates of the prices and value of crop products in all agricultural
countries of the world.
2. Monthly reports of crop estimates for the International Institute of Agriculture
3. Monthly reports of exports and imports for the International Institute of Agri-
culture at Rome.
4. International sugar situation, the estimates to be made available to the Office of
5. Estimates of foreign crops, including live stock, from reports of the International
Institute of Agriculture at Rome.
6. Preparation of statistical tables for the Yearbook of the department, for other
e *mL ta .* _| f a -. uS .n .n 1 ~ -
12. Preparation of tables showing imports and exports of farm and forest products,
to be condensed and furnished the Office of Markets.
13. Estimates of extent and average dates of seedtime and harvest throughout the
United States, in cooperation with the Office of Farm Management.
14. Compilation showing geographic phases of prices of farm products in the United
States, by States, in cooperation with the Office of Markets.
15. Compilation of wages of farm labor.
16. Estimates of the dairy industry, in cooperation with the Dairy Division of the
Bureau of Animal Industry.
17. Chronology of agriculture of the United States, so much of this project as relates
to agricultural history to be assigned to the Rural Organization Service.
18. Estimates of the potential agricultural area of the United States, in cooperation
with the Bureau of the Census, Office of Farm Management, and the Bureau of Soils.
Other projects were either discontinued or
branches of the department.
(6) The committee also recommended that 1
of agricultural crops and their production to
Bureau of Crop Estimates sho ld be increased
in important areas.
the number of classes
be considered by the
as rapidly as possible
TELEGRAPHING STATE REPORTS.
the committee recon
of crop estimates and forecasts
telegraphed on the date of issue to the field age:
Upon reconsideration it was decided that it would
graph the estimates to the section director of the
in each State in order that the printing outfits of th
may be utilized for printing duplicate copies to be
local newspapers in the State. This practice was i:
autumn of 1913 and is working very satisfactorily at i
the estimates be
nt in each State.
be better to tele-
e station directors
mailed to all the
inaugurated in the
ISSUE OF THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK.
(8) The Crop Reporter, form
Statistics, having been discontin
on reorganization recommended
crop estimates and other data of
culture be published monthly in
the place of the Crop Reporter. I:
tion the Agricultural Outlook wa
part of the Farmers' Bulletin seri
early published by the Bureau of
ued in June, 1913, the committee
that the tabular statements of
a statistical nature relating to agri-
a pamphlet of bulletin size to take
n accordance with this recommenda-
is started in September, 1913, as a
ISSUE OF THE WEEKLY NEWS LETTER TO CROP CORRESPONDENTS.
(9) The committee recommended also that the corps of selected
county and township crop reporters of the bureau, comprising at
least one farmer in every agricultural county and township in the
REORGANIZATION I EFFECT JULY 1, 1914.
So far as it could be done without special legislation by Congress,
the various changes recommended by the committee on reorganiza-
tion were effected before the close of the fiscal year 1914 and arrange-
ments were fully completed to make all further changes on July 1,
the necessary authority having been granted by Congress in the act
making appropriations for the new fiscal year, so that on that date
the title of the bureau was formally changed to the Bureau of Crop
Estimates, the force of State statistical agents was abolished, the
titles of the former special field agents were changed, and a number
of new field agents were appointed.
USE OF RURAL MAIL CARRIERS.
At the suggestion of the Assistant Secretary of Agriculture, and
after careful consideration of plans and methods by the Interdepart-
mental Committee on Cooperation, it was decided to try to make an
annual census of farms, acreages of farm crops, and numbers of live-
stock by means of the rural mail carriers. The Postmaster General
and his assistants readily agreed to place the rural mail system of
the Post Office Department at the service of this department. In
order that the system under the new plan might be perfected in its
details before applying it to the entire United States, it was decided
to try out the scheme in the State of Maryland and in 15 counties
in the State of South Carolina,
The first step in the campaign was to send a return postal card
to all postmasters in Maryland and the 15 counties in South Caro-
lina, asking them to report for each rural route the number of farms,
the number of boxes, the number of families, and the number of
patrons; also the number
the post office and the nun
These cards were mailed o0
in five days. The inform
department to estimate 1
required. On February
first call on the postmaste]
44 Maryland postmasters
from whom no replies had
On December 15 a supp
was mailed to all the pos
offices in the 15 counties
of farms not on rural routes served from
iber of farms served by star-route carriers.
n November 15, 1913, and were returnable
ation called for was desired to enable the
the number of schedules that would be
5, 1914, nearly three months
rs for the required information,
and 26 of the South Carolina p
ly of short, cles
t offices in Ma
in South Caro
worded farm schedules
nd and to all the post
with a circular letter
from the Fourth Assistant Postmaster General directing the post-
masters to distribute the schedules among the rural and star route
carners, with instructions to leave them in all the rural mail boxes,
in nIllr- + +..l-s IRn+- n+-. ?+nw h,1n 1.A y b~, Ch11A n ,t+ -,rr -0h, o mara -o
to increase his
drifting in very
received was as
taxes. Notwithstanding these instructions and the
en to insure compliance therewith, the returns came
slowly. On January 28, by which date the schedules
ceased to come in, the total number of schedules
Percentage of farm census schedules received.
The cost to the Department of Agriculture involved in obtaining
reports from less than 40 per cent of the total farms in the States and
counties named was estimated at approximately $1,000, including
stationery, printing, duplicating, addressing, mailing, and sorting.
This estimate does not include the cost of correspondence with indi-
vidual postmasters. Approximately 40,000 schedules were received,
making the cost to this department about $2.50 per 100 schedules.
At the same rate it would cost this department alone more than
$160,000 simply to secure returns from the 6,500,000 farms in the
United States, and the cost of editing, tabulating, and summarizing
the returns would probably amount to as much more. In view of
this showing the experiment was abandoned.
The experiment seems to have demonstrated clearly that satisfac-
tory results can not be secured without (1) a personal canvass and
an actual enumeration by the rural mail carriers similar to that made
by the census enumerator; (2) legislation making it compulsory upon
farmers to supply the information requested; or (3) a long campaign
through the press and other agencies to educate the farmers into the
idea of furnishing information of a statistical nature regarding their
business, primarily for their own benefit and incidentally for the ben-
efit of others. Returns from less than 95 per cent of all the farms of
a State would be of no value except as a basis for forming an estimate,
yet this experiment has demonstrated that it would be extremely
difficult and expensive to obtain returns from even 50 per cent of the
farmers without education or compulsion of some sort.
nf rnn tinTn rmrnnrt c
OF CONDITION REPORTS.
interpretation by the Department of Agriculture
n n rinomnnl] ornric CY.nlf. ant.nn wav hsonnn in
MarylEhnd... ................... .. ....
Gouth C~olins .,.....,........... ................... ..........
reports relate. The condition of a corn (
normal with a forecast of 35 bushels per
practically ruined 10 days later by a devw
final yield be but 2 or 3 bushels per acre.
ures that, based upon average conditions
even chance or probability that the final
or below the figure forecast. A variation
June forecast does not necessarily indicate
in the forecast, but rather indicates an ave
3 an err
condition of 10.5 per cent before harvest.
The forecasts made during the last three years,
estimates of yield, are given below:
August 1 may be
it the crop may be
hot wind and the
ecasts are such fig-
years, there is an
ill be either above
per cent from the
or of 10.5 per cent
bsequent change in
together with final
Final estimates of crop yields compared with forecasts made during growing season, 1911,
1912, and 1913.
Winter wheat (bushels):
1913. ......... ..
Spring wheat (bushels):
1913. ........... .. ...
All wheat (bushels):
1912 .. .
1912. ........... .......
4J aPi 4A
Forecast made in-
INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE ON
monthly meetings since its organization in October,
the subjects formally considered are the following:
, and among
Method of handling cooperative projects partly completed by the Bureau of Sta-
tistics (Crop Estimates); new projects; revision of the statistical tables for the Year-
book; the utilization of rural mail carriers for an annual census of agriculture and live
stock; the compilation of data showing the quantity and value of imports and exports
of certain agricultural products from 1790 to 1913, most of which data have already
been compiled in the Bureau of the Census, the Department of Labor, or the Bureau
of Statistics (Crop Estimates) of this department; the compilation of a condensed
abstract of census figures to be published in a pocket-size pamphlet for the use of
employees in the field; the best method of taking over the work of estimating the wool
production in the United States which for the last 25 years has been carried on by the
national Association of Wool Manufacturers; index
numbers for wholesale prices of
textiles by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the proposed collection of statistics on farm
accidents by the Bureau of Crop Estimates; sources of information relating to meat
production and consumption in the principal meat producing and consuming countries
of the world, in connection with the special investigations of the committee appointed
to study the economics of the meat situation; and the best method of securing esti-
mates of the citrus and other fruit crops of the Mediterranean region.
In the autumn of 1913 a burea
u council was organized,
of the administrativB officials and principal assistants of the bureau.
Monthly meetings are held at which chiefs of divisions report on the
condition of the work in their divisions, the statistical scientists
investigations in their ch
difficulties encountered in
in bringing officials and employees together,
creating a better under-
standing among them, keeping them in touch with the work of the
bureau, and creating a spirit of cooperation which it would be difficult
to secure otherwise.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
AGRICULTURE AT ROME.
During the fiscal year the Bur
furnished monthly reports on acre
yields, and prices of live stock in
years the I
of Statistics (Crop Estimates)
crop conditions and estimated
United States, also reports of
estimates of world
institute of Agriculture
crops furnished by the
he institute and the
1*11' I I N ~~I' i -I *I
MEETING OF SPECIAL FIELD AGENTS OF THE
WASHINGTON, D. C.
The 22 special field agents of the field service m
administrative officials at Washington, D. C., dai
to 4.30 p. m. on four days, January 28 to 31, inclui
of the meeting was mainly to make the agents ac
another and with the bureau officials, to discuss
ganization of the field force, to outline to them
policies of the bureau, to revise the instructions
and to consider special difficulties encountered by i
The meeting was successful throughout. When 1
few of the agents were acquainted with each other or with
officials. When the agents separated, it was with a feeling
respect, friendship, and renewed zeal far the service, a
creased efficiency resulting from the conference has beei
The following program will indicate the character of t
Discussion and revision of instructions to special field agents.
Bases of crop estimates.
Securing and retaining the cooperation of an effective corps of a
Cooperation with State and local officials and agencies for
crops, live stock, prices, etc.
The best method of estimating acreage.
Estimating numbers and classes of live stock.
Estimating special crops or products, such as apples, potato
bees, quantities of honey produced, etc.
Value of crop estimates to farmers.
Travel by special field agents; its various phases.
Office work of special field agents.
Special difficulties encountered by field agents.
Addresses by the principal officials of the bureau.
9.30 a. m.
bd with one
st met, but
d the in-
ids or correspondents.
>es, peanuts, hives of
COOPERATIVE WORK FOR OTHER BRANCHES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF
In accordance with the policy recommended by the reorganization
committee, the organization and clerical force, equipment, and
facilities of the Bureau of Statistics (Crop Estimates) for collecting
and compiling information through its crop correspondents were
utilized by other branches of the department during the fiscal year
in connection with the cooperative projects which were reassigned,
and other special inquiries, as follows: For the Office of Markets,
estimates of stocks of cabbages and onions on hand in different sec-
tions; for the Rural Organization Sertice, inquiries relating to the
business of making loans to farmers, and conditions and facilities
for financing farm enterprises; for the Bureau of Animal Industry,
nn iirina rafitna tr'i ni r1rwn rnnr QhCtofl -ra roiCInO ind filrlPA
ANNUAL REPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OF
of Soils, the Advisory Committee
the Federal Horticultural Board,
Interdepartmental Committee or
clerical force involved in handling
bureaus was considerable, equival4
days, or the entire time of 10 clerk
on Finance and Business Methods,
the Bureau of Chemistry, and the
i Cooperation. The time of the
g this cooperative work for other
ent to the time of 1 clerk for 3,964
:s for the fiscal year.
MATERIAL FOR PUBLICATION.
the fiscal year the following manuscripts were prepared by
of the Bureau of Statistics (Crop Estimates):
.gents' Handbook of Agricultural Statistics, a condensed
of agricultural statistics of the Thirteenth Census, showing
alue, and relative importance of the different classes of
live stock for the United States and for each State.
d Manual for Field Parties, by H. W. Barker, M. D.
SClover: Dates of Sowing and Harvesting, by James R.
Inland Boat Service,
Cooperation Among t
Movement from Citi
Statistics of Sugar in
by Frank Andrews.
Material and special
Weekly News Letter to
by Frank Andrews.
Mhe Roumanian Peasants, by E. T. Peters.
i and Town to Agriculture, by George
the United States (Department Bulletin 66),
articles for the Agricultural Outlook and the
It is gratifying to note how generally the crop estimates of the
bureau during the year have been accepted by the public as approxi-
mately correct. This is due largely to the patriotic service of the
large force of voluntary crop reporters in every county and township
of the United States, who serve without compensation other than the
consciousness of a public duty well performed and such small recog-
nition as can be extended to them by the bureau in the form of seeds
and publications; to the zeal and efficiency of the trained field agents
of the bureau, and to the faithful, efficient, and loyal service of the
clerical force and administrative officials of the Washington office.
It is hoped that with the increased appropriations granted by Congress
for the fiscal year 1915, and with the force, equipment, and system of
collecting information fully reorganized along the lines laid down by
the reorganization committee, the crop estimating work of the bureau
will become increasingly valuable.
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3I 1262 08856 7341 illi
3 1262 08856 7341
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