The rice situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
The rice situation
Physical Description:
5 v. : ill. ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
Publisher:
Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Creation Date:
1961
Frequency:
annual
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Rice trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Rice trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
RS-1-5; Nov. 1956-61.
Numbering Peculiarities:
No issue published for 1960.
General Note:
Title from caption.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 004701585
oclc - 40367268
System ID:
AA00008495:00001

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Rice situation (Washington, D.C. : 1962)

Full Text


Ia19


January


1961


FOR RELEASE
JAN. 23, P.M.


RICE


SITUA


RS-


SUPPLY


AND DISTRIBUTION


MIL. CWT.*


Total<
supply


)Carryover
Y'.-1 Exports


at year end


Domestic
useo


* .
*
* I


*
*
*
*
*


'56-57


U. S DEPARTMENT


OifNLUDE 5
-RICULTURE


TFMRITOPIALr


USE.


NEC. tdi'O. C


'60-61


rFRFs OF RODGH.
AFORE(AST


SEI iCE


large export
rams. a fu.I


Result of continued
rGovernment pro-
eduction in the rice


it 1, 1961,


1960-61


is expected.


are tentatively


!rat 29. 7 million cwt.


the same


As of


about


as in 1959-60.
July 31, 1960, the carryover


was only about


years


a fourth ol what it was


earlier, reflect


ting record


exports in 1956-57 and near-record in
1959-60,the impact of the acreage re-
serve program in 1957 and 1958, and
lowered acreage allotments beginning
in 1956.


II7

iti:?


Published annually by
AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE


7


TION


*I
*


U


k'


---- --------


- -




........__. ......._._ ......._._. ..1*'..


JANWART 1961


RS-5


RICE


PRODUCTION


AND


YIELD


1930


1940


1950


1960


U. 5. DEPARTMENT


STATE aBfGINNING


OF AGRICULTURE


DATA FOR 1960 ARE
NEG. 6521-61 [1


DECEMBER


AGRICULTURAL


I ESTIMATES


MARKETING


SERVICE


Rice yields ba
uai fr m 19c5 to 1951.


a year


earlier


each


vwas aDarp


and ra lf again


as much


year snnce 1945,


in 1955.


In 1960,


as the 1i95-54


except rfo
the yields


average


r 1951 and 1958.
are a record "l.


The increase


en. ,


1 percent


of 22.52 cvt.


Product Ion


recolrd
totalen


crop


in 195


54. mllnton


increased
i, acreage


eacn year from 9199


allotments


to 1951.,


and marketing


except


quotas


for 1961, 191.5 and 1950.


have been


in erfeet.


In 1I960


Following


crop


cwlt.


RICE


PRICES


AND


LOAN


RATES"


S PER CWT


1950-


51 1955-56


1960-61


YFAR BEGINNING G-


INCLUDES MIlNOR


ve increased


as -d-


above


*^t.
., ; .


BY WOPTWI,


rlreull,






RS-5


JANUARY 1961


THE


RICE


SITUAT


ION


Approved by the


Outlook and Situation Board,


January 16,


1961


CONTENTS


Page
mCQ


Page


Summary ................... ....
Background .....................
Current Domestic Rice Situation.
Carryover stocks continue


to d
1960
yiel
Price
aver
Domesti
Announ
1961
refe


decline ...........
production up slig
d per acre new rec
s again expected t
age above support
c Rice Outlook and
cements for 1961 .


btly;
ord ...


rice marketing quota
rendum ..................


World Rice


Situation and Outlook


World production


to rise ..
World trade
postwar rec
U. S. export
almost 50 p
TU Q rn-_r


in 1960
ord ...
s in 19
percent
a Auimia


continues


a new

59-60 up
+ ....h.o....
t-Octo'ber ll


World stocks as of January 1
World rice prices down
about 6 percent ...........
World trade in 1961 ........
World export availability


**..


*

12 :

13 :
13 :


961 production may
slightly if yields
average..........
.961 lirice support
announced ........


down


in 1961 ..
Outlook goo
exports ..
Rice market
work .....


not yet
...........


for U.....
d for U.


O......
e


development


Legislation


Index of Tables


SUMMARY


A further reduction in the rice carryover is expected August 1, 1961,
mainly as a result of continued large exports under Government programs. Ten-
tative estimates for exports in 1960-61 are 29.7 million cwt., about the same
as the high level of exports in 1959-60.


gust
The
than
harv
with


Rice sup
1, 1960, w
1960 rice c
the 1959 c:
tested acre
acreage up


plies
as 12.
rop is
rop bu
of 34.
sligh


in 1960-61 total 67.0 million
1 million cwt., down 23 perce
estimated at 54.4 million cwt
t 12 percent above the 1949-58
11 cwt. in 1960 surpassed the
tly. Imports are estimated


cwt. The carryover Au-
nt from a year earlier.
., only slightly larger
I average. The yield per
1959 record of 33.69 cwt.
at 0.5 million cwt.


.. 11


I


I







RS-5


With


earlier
amount
three-f


exports and domestic use


stocks


to about


ourths


further reduction


The
in 1956-57


great


on August 1
9.1 million


, 1961
cwt..


less than the August


in the


reduction
impact of


reduced acreage allotments


estimated


to be abe


, left from supplies ol


a fourth
1, 1956


carryover


carryove


less


than on


record of


expected

r since


the Acreage Reserve


beginning


34


August


1956 refl<


Program


ii


in 1956.


-In the referendum held on December ~3, producers


quotas


This
the s
about
cwt.
the ]


for the


1961


more than


;ame acreage of


crop by a


the required


rice


'1.2 percent
two-thirds


is harvested


equal to the average of


would


be produced


-954-58 average


1961-62 marketing year and


a further
cvt. wou d


reduction


compared


past
with


. Assuming little


exports


in the


be below the 29.7


vote


accord


approval of ti


in 1961 as i
three years,
54.4 million


change


of poss


carryover on Au
mliion cwt.


n 196(
a cr
cvt.


in domest i


ibly 25 millic
gust i, 1t 2.
estikah 1997


JANUARY 1961 I

out the same as a year U
P 67.0 million cwt., will
August 1, 1960, and .
.6 million cwt. A still
t 1, 1962. I

ects the record exports
a 1957 and 1958, and the


approvedsrice marketing
ing to the final report. 4
hose voting. If about
), and if yields are .
op of about 52.7 million .
in 1960 and 51.4 million, ".
c disappearance in the
on cwt., there would be
Exrts of 25 million
t!#97-Ei 9 5h.


million


in 1959-60.


season average


price received


by farmers


for rice


in 1960-61 is


cur-


rently estimated at $4.59 per cwt.,


cents


above the


support rate of $4.42


CWt.


In 1959-60,


the season average price,


also


at $4


, was 21 cents


above


the support


price.


The. 1960


world rice


preceding year's harves
record of 486.8 billion


t of


crop,


forecast at 487.6 billion pounds is above the


480.6 billion


2 years


earlier


and slightly larger than the
With" acreage increased j m


acres,
output
since


crop outside Communis


However


weather wa'


, yields
s not as


t areas


per acre will
favorable as


vi )


L1 probably e


probably not att
a year earlier.


xceed last year 's record
ain the 1 59-60 level,
Rice production in Commm-


nist China
weather aga


probably was
,in reduced y


increased


fields


over the


poor


1959 harvest,


even


though adverse


per acre.


International


trade i


n rice for the


calendar year


^expected to


establish a new postwar


record


increase


in dewand reflects such factors__


as change
increases
attempts


in pri
small


to build


United Sta


milled


50 percent
exported


, for the


over


levels
inLcrass 1


increases i
up reserve

tes exports


ce


some


increases


n per capital
stocks.


of rice totaled


in per capital consumption


population


income and in a few instances,


20.6 million


marketing year gesn inndp At 1f 95
a year earlier and second to the record of .


cvi;.


in terms of


million cut.


in 1956-57


"E~ E""E "E
.. :Xbl


riac


I






RS-5


JANUARY


1961


Rice exports for dollars in 1959-60 were the
mounting to nearly 40 percent of total U. S. export
in exports under Government programs. Exports for
pled those of 1958-59 and amounted to approximately
"The remainder was shipped under grants (Section 416
relief) and barter.


highest since 1954-55, a-
. There was also a gain
foreignn currency nearly tri-
50 percent of total exports.
donations and disaster


Stocks of old-crop ric
close of the 1960 calendar ye
year, despite larger supplies
world as a whole, total carry
- that indicates any over-all s
tries have not seen any build
controlled areas undoubtedly
last few years.


;e in the hands of principal
Bar were expected to be lowe:
available for export during
-in stocks for 1961 are low
hortage. Generally speaking
-up of unmarketable stocks.
do not have the stocks of r


Asian exporters at the
r than for the previous
g the year. For the
er but not to a point
g, the free-world coun-
Moreover, Communist
ice they had in the


exports
an over
of long
9 perce
best, w
below a
years.


World rice prices for 1960,
, probably averaged about 6
.-all reduction of about 8 p
;-grain varieties averaged 7
nt reduction in 1959 from a
ith only al to 2 percent d
year earlier, while short


as represented
percent below
percent in 1959
percent lower
year earlier.
decline in 1960
grain-rice was


by f.o
those o
compare
than in
Medium
against
down 5


.b. pri
f 1959.
d with
1959,
- grain
5 perc
percent


ces for free-world
This followed
1958. Prices
compared with a
rice fared the
ent in 1959
in each of the


Prospective supplies and prices
indicative of the trend of world prices
for long grains in December, the size o
held by exporters, and the supplies in
112 months are expected to be relatively
of 1960.

World demand for rice is expected


level as in 1960. Whether or not
on growing conditions in importin
at the planting time for the new
Malaya and Indonesia will likely
may exceed those of last year bec
Altogether, it appears that world
high levels of the past 2 years.


of long-grain
. On the bas
f stocks of o
prospect for
* stable and r


varieties a
is of the le
Id-crop rice
1961, prices
remain fairly


continue at about


it will exceed
g countries in
crop. Imports
continue to be
ause of unfavor
requirements w


tha
late
byI
heavy
able
ill


t of last year
spring and ea
ndia, Pakistan
y. Pakistan's
growing condi
continue at th


re fairly
vel of prices
on January 1
in the next
close to those


same high
will depend
rly summer
, Ceylon,
requirements
tions in 1960.
e relatively


It is likely
outside Communist Ch
year. There may be
countries. Exports
- than a year earlier.
possibly much less,


that world supplies of rice available for export in 1961
iina will not be changed much from those of the previous
additional supplies available for export in free-world
from these sources may be about the same or even larger
Supplies available from Communist China appear less,
than a year ago because of unfavorable 1960 crop conditions.


The indicated level of export availability


in 1961,


including probable






RS-5


JANUARY 1961


THE RICE SITUATION AND OLrOOK


BACKGROUND
scarce and


time and


- Between 1945 and 1953,


prices


rose


steadily.


postwar disruptions


world supplies of rice were


Shortages


were


caused by war-
in important


rice producing countries.


Although U


rice production before


World
war it


1MB


less


than


25 million cwt.,


increased rapidly and continued


during and after the


to build until 1954,


when


it rose to 64 million cwt.


In 1957,


it reached a recent-year


of 43.0 million cwt


a decade


earlier,


, (table
S. rice


1 ).
produce


Though large in
tion in 1960 at


comparison with
54.4 million cwt


represented only about


percent of the world


total


(table


The world rice


shortage


began


to ease


in 1953 as


export


sup-


plies


in most areas


became more abundant


Unusually favorable


growing conditions and


expanded acreage planted


to rice,


both


importing and


exporting countries,


improved


the supply situation


By the


fall


of 1953,


prices


of rice


in world


trade


began to move


downward from record levels.


Stocks
following the


1954-


bination of


in the


these


and reduced sports


United States


record large


1953


cro


carryover


started building up in 1953
p, and at the beginning o


was j.5 million cut. The l
another record large 195 cr
-"^^^*" ^X^ ^^X*^^M~ b*8"a : ll:E i.ii~ ~q~:~Ei


sharply to about


26.7


million


cwt.


S"El~~~


In view of this
ments and marketing quo
These were approved in


suited


in a sharp


heavy accumulation of rice. acreage allot-
tas were proclaimed for the "95 cro .


the


reduction


referendum.


in acreage,


Although this action re-
a substantial Inrhease


I::.


in yield
record u
was not


per acre


boosted


p to that date


suffici ent


the
An in


1955 crqp to the second Fig"hest of
crease in domestlec dis &earance
he continuing accumulation, and


carryover stocks
of 34.6 million


1956


on August 1,


cwt.


1956 reached the
g quotas again we


crop.


record hi level .f
re in effect for -
"";""x: ":c. Th.h.


Althou
million cL.
continued lar


carryover on August


, 1957


was


to 20.1


by the sEaler crop and re.or. e.s awtt
ge and quotas were again necessary for the 195


Even though exports in 1957-58 were less t4hn haf of those of a
year earlier, stocks on au 1, l9~risredoh
million cwt. to 18.2 million ct, as a relt f further decline
in production brought about by participation in te A eage serve


Program,. St
their reduced
ani n roa c a


ocks at the
by 8 percent


end of the
t to 15.7 m


1958-59 marketing r were fr-
illion cwt. This resulted from :


in on e Wmnrn fhnn n^*t~oSn +4 nnT anifli u n an nn


which reduced output


55 marketing year the


carryover stocks,


at ,


ca~sep~ ~ue aiupw~ t~A


n -


to offset


Marketing


I crop.


"^^^^ ^" "^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^ ^^^"^^""^~~


...,....,.,...,


rgh


: ...EX:E.. ::XB.XS~EE
~irr rpa a~ :E!x~~EX"~g~:;EE""~XS~XE~~B~~~






-RS-5


JANUARY 1961


Domestic disappearance,
from 20 million cwt. in 1946- 47
(table 1 ). The quantity used


feed incr
reflected
erage lev
appearance
dine in
was a sli
by brewer
slight de


'ease
.an
'el,
e in
quan
ght
s.
clin


d more
increa
as wel
1956-
tititi
reduct


In


S
1
5
e
i


1958
in fo


in 1959-60 with most


than use f
e in per c
as an inc
7 dropped
s used by
on in food
-59 domest
od use and


of the


in


'
a
r
2
b


including shipments
* to 29 million cwt.
by brewers and used
r food. The increa
,pita consumption fr
*ease in population.
..1 million cwt., re
brewerss and fed. In
use, as well as use


ic dis
then
crease


appearance
increased
in food


for
se f
om a
Do
flec
195
for


was red


Territories
1955-56
seed and
or food
below-av-
mestic dis-
ting a de-
7-58 there
feed and
uced by a


million


use.


Table
countries of


9, page 21,
destination,


shows U. S. exports, milled basis,
for 1959-60 with comparisons.


THE CURRENT DOMESTIC RICE SITUATION


Carryover Stocks
To Decline


Continue


The rice carryover continued the decline started in 1956-57 and reached
12.1 million cwt., in terms of rough rice, by August 1, 1960. This amount was
only about a third of the 34.6 million cwt. on hand August 1, 1956. The re-
duction in carryover is principally due to the rise in exports but also reflects
acreage controls and the Soil Bank Program. During the five crop years 1955-56
through 1959-60, exports averaged 24.7 million cwt. a year, which consisted of
slightly more than 60 percent moved under Government-financed programs with
about three-fourths paid for with foreign currency.


Acreage
crop after the
increase in ca
1956-57 market
well below the
to 1960, except
to discontinue


allotments
1954 record
rryover to a
ing year. S
1954 level
t in 1958.
marketing q


and marketing
harvest and s
record 34.6 m
ince then, the
even though yi
Production has
uotas.


quotas
mall e
million
reduc
elds h
not b


were established for the 1955
exports in 1955 resulted in an
cwt. at the beginning of the
ed acreage has held production
ave increased each year from 1955
een reduced sufficiently, however,


sisting
and lilk
1960-61
earlier
5.0 mil
tic-use


Total rice supplies
of the carryover o
:ely imports of abou
is estimated at 28
. Domestic use con
lion; seed, 2.1 mil
categories is curr


ports are tentatively e
year's 29.3 million. 0
carryover would be down


sti
n t


1960-61 are


f 12.
t 500
.2 mi
sists
lion
ently
mated
he ba


1 mi
,000
llio
of
and
est
at
sisl


to about 9. 1


llion c
cwt. (


n cwt.,
rice fo
feed, 0
imated
29.7 mi
of these


estimated at


vt.


p


table
rough
r food
.6 mil
at the
llion


million


rodu
II


equ
, 20
lion
sam
cet.


estimate
cwt.,


67.0 million cwt.,


action o
Domest
ivalent
.5 mill
cwt.
e level
, only


con-


f 54.4 million cwt.
ic use of rice in
, the same as a year
ion; brewers' use,
Each of these domes-
as in 1959-60. Ex-
slightly above last


es, the August 1
representing the


1961


fifth con-


S:.


l
ii


b


L
)


)
)








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JANUARY 1961


CO ial 0\--
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0 CO uL ol
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tci'
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Ughir
* CP






a'







RS-5


JANUARY 1961


Consumption of rice for food in the Uni
is indicated by disappearance data to be about
above the 5-7 pounds in 1957-58 and above the
(table 14 on page 30). The per capital figure
pounds, which is out of line with other recent
1958-59 milling figures has been completed, it
capital figure will have to be revised upward.


t

5
f


,ed States from 1959-60 mil
5.8 pounds per capital, sli
.4--pound average for 1947-
'or 1958-59 was computed at
years. After a recheck of
may be found that this per


lings
ghtly

5.1
the


1960 Rice Production Up Slightly;
Yield Per Acre Sets New Record


The 1960 crop at


53.5 mil
with the
page 30)
over the
harvest
previous
greater,


54.4 million cwt.


lion produced in 1959
latter accounting for
. This is the same si
1958 crop. The yield
d acre of 34.11 cwt. r
records in 1959. The
amounting to about 7


due to
about
tuation
per se
reachedd


was


about


both larger acreage
two-thirds of the i
that prevailed in
leded acre of 33.71
new record highs; o


2 percent larger than


an
ncr
boo
cwt
ne


d hi
'ease
stin
. aerc
perch


gher yiel
(table 1
gthe 195
d the yie
ent above


d
3
9
1


the
s,
on
crop
d the
the


increase in yields in 1959 over 1958 was much
percent in both the yield per seeded acre and


yield per harvested acre.


year.
percent
estimate
ment wa


Rice
Howev
belo
aed at
s to


was harvested from 1,595,700 acres, only
er, this acreage was 13 percent below the
w the record acreage harvested in 1954.
1.2 percent, the smallest since 1955. A
comply with acreage allotments.


slightly larger than last
10-year average and 37
The acreage abandoned is
bout half of the abandon-


Louis
!year!
Louis
were
some
Condi


Production in


the Southern area--Missouri,


iana and Texas--totaled 40.9 million
s production. Record high yields per


iana with re
below the hi
weather prob
.tions follow


there was little


Mississippi,


cwt., about 2 percent
acre were estimated


cord-equaling yields in Missouri. Texas
gh level of recent years but well above
lems during the seeding period that cause
ing planting generally were favorable.
damage from weather. Harvest of early v


and M
average
ed som
Stands
arieti


Arkansas,
* above last
for Arkansas and
Lississippi yields
;e. There were
,e replanting.
were good and
es was delayed


by excessive moisture in Louisiana and Texas but most of the crop was
under favorable conditions.


harvested


In California, production
above the 1959 crop. The yield
the previous record set last yea
tion period, growing conditions '
nearly complete by November 1, p


is estimated at 13.
of 4,700 pounds per
r. Following a slow
were almost ideal.
probably the earliest


5 milli
acre is
start
Harvest
of rec


on
50
dur
in
ord


cwt., 2 percent
pounds above
ing the germina-
California was
.


Prices in 1960-61 Again Expected
Tob Average Above Support


Prices received by farmers for rice,


including an allowance for unr
mm tflr I.L tl -


ee-


|





I


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S Sn n S S S S Sn S


,dr OO i' ut.4 .
i4m m~mo a


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- 11


JANUARY 1961


In 1959-60, the price of rough rice to farmers
21 cents above the national average support of $4.38.
currently estimated at $4.59, which is 17 cents above
$4.42 per cwt.


averaged $4.59 per cwt.,
The 1960-61 price is
the announced support of


Farmers
the same proper
cwt. of rough r
7.0 million to
from the 1958 c
Bluebonnet and
varieties deliv
terms of rough,


put about a fourth of


*tion
ice
the
,rop
Nato
rered


Lput
put
CCC.
were
in
Lto


of the


their 1959


* under support from
under price support
The amounts place
11.6 million cwt.
the South and Calro
CCC from the 1959 c


total August 1,


1960


the 1
from
d under
and 6.
se in
rop.


crop under price


958 crop. Of
the 1959 crop,
r support and
6 million cwt.
California wer
CCC owned 6.9


carryover of


support,


the 12.3
farmers
deliver
, respect
'e the pr
million


12.1 million


about


million
delivered
d to CCC
tively.
incipal
cwt., in
cwt.


Through November 30, 1960, farmers had placed a total
of 1960-crop rice under support, compared with 5.5 million by
earlier (table 5)-. Of the 4.2 million cwt. under support by
million were warehouse-stored and 1.1 million were farm-store
agreements accounted for only 22,986 cwt. Farmers had repaid
cwt. by November 30, 1960. Repayments by this date were almo
large as those made by November 30, 1959.


of 4.2 million cwt.
that date a year
November 30th, 3.0
d loans. Purchase
L loans on 593,510
st 3 times as


DOMESTIC RICE ANNOUNCEMENTS AND OUTLOOK FOR 1961


1961 Rice Marketing Quota
And Referendum


Marketing quotas for rice we
now requires quotas be proclaimed f
supply for the preceding marketing
(P.L. 86-408). The total supply of
determination is 6.2 percent above
keting quota level 1/.


re proclaimed on November 17, 1960. The law
or the coming crop (1961) whenever the total
year (1960-61) exceeds the normal supply
rice for the 1960-61 marketing year quota
the normal supply figure, which is the mar-


1/ For the marketing quota determi:
1960-61 was estimated at 66,791,000
cwt., a carryover on August 1, 1960
400,000 cwt. The normal supply was
estimated domestic consumption of 20
year and exports of 29,000,000 cwt.
carryover allowance of 10 percent of


nation, the total supply of rice for
cwt., consisting of a 1960 crop of 54,244,000
of 12,147,000 cwt. and estimated imports of
estimated at 62,919,000 cwt., based on an
|,199,000 cwt. for the 1959-60 marketing
during the 1960-61 marketing year, plus a
the consumption and export total.






RS-5


- 12


JANUARY 1961


Table


.- Rice:


Acreage allotments,


by States,


1959-61


Appor 'ionment


State


1959


3.960


1961


Acres


Acres


Acres


Arizona
Arkansas
California
Florida


Illinois


Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina


Tennessee


Texas


398,855
299,6148


474,892
46, 669
4,765
38
149
2,845
517
422,147


399,012
299,766


122, 313


399,012
299,766
957


1422, 313


Total apportioned


to States


1,651,730 1,652.296 1.652,296


Unapportioned national reserve


United States total


1,652,596


18,$52, x5x


A A


Commodity Stabilization Service,


U.S.D.A.


Table


.- Rice:


Acreage and production,


by States 199-6


Acreage


.... Produi: on


Stat


Missouri
Mississippi
Arkansas
JaQiaW^flSa
Texas
California
Minor States 2

United States


Planted


* 1959


: acres

41.3
46
S 390

: 421
: 287
.1.2


Si, 6o8.~


19601/


acres


4.0
45
391

420
290
.1.0


J 1,615.o


Harvested : :


acres
^ Jii i


S4 .1A
44
383


285
.8


1,586.9


acres
miiidimhiiti


44


...9


cvtv; _________


1,188 1, 298
13,62i~~;;;


.;L -,Y f J. ijJO
13,252 13,536
.. 2 3'''


59.7


I/ Preliminary.
/ Minny f4-na n insn.ii Ar twnnn .. W1lniAn. T1.t4nnM4


I
IH


" """": """:i x:


x x


I~


8""": "$~~~


,~~~EE:


~j





BS-5


- 13


JANUARY 1961


In the referendum held on December 13, producers approved rice quotas
for 1961 by a 91.2 percent vote, according to the final report 2/. This is
substantially more than the required two-thirds vote of the producers voting.


1961 Production be Dbwn
Slight if Yields are Average


The national rice allotment for
fixed by law. This is the same allotme
The 1961 national acreage allotment has
producing States in the same proportion
allotted in 1960 (table 3).


1961 is 1,652,596 acres, the minimum
nt that has been in effect since 1956.
been apportioned among the 13 rice-
that they shared in the total acreage


, 595,000 acres


harvested
three year
compared w
With domes
ports proj


the carry
timated 29
record 37.


in 1960, and if yi
J a


are harvested in 1961,


about equal


s (33.05 cwt.), a crop of about 52.7 m
ith 54.4 million cwt. in 1960 and 51.4
tic disappearance in 1961-62 estimated
ected at about 25 million cwt., there
ver on August 1, 1962. Exports of thi
.7 million cwt. in 1960-61, the 29.3 m
5 million exported in 1956-57, about t


about the same acreage of rice
. to the average of the past
million cwt. would be produced,
million, the 1954-58 average.
L at 28.3 million cwt. and ex-
would be a further reduction in
*s size would be below the es-


million cwt.
he same as


in 1959-60 and the
in 1952-53 but above


any other year.


1961 Rice Price Support
Not Yet Announced


advance minimum national average


has
cent
crop
leve


not yet been announced. H
nor more than 90 percent
. For the 1960 crop, the
'1 actually used to determi


support program for the 19
agreements. Loans and purc
1962. Growers who exceed
marketing quota penalties
per cwt. on their excess p
duction may be postponed b
excess to the CCC or any o
Agriculture. None of the
will be eligible for price


61 c
base
thei


suppo


however, it will be
of parity, the stat
statutary minimum w
ne the support rate
rop will be carried
agreements will be
r farm acreage allo


amounting to 65
reduction. How
y storage under
other agency des


percent
ever, th
bond or
ignated


>rt price for 1961-crop rice
set at not less than 70 per-
utory limits set for the 1961
ras 75 percent and was the
. As in past years, the price
t out through loans and purchase
available through January 31,
tentss will be subject to
of parity (as of June 15, 1961
ie penalty on any excess pro-
avoided by delivery of the
by the U. S. Department of


production on farms which exceed
support.


)


their allohnents


2/ Rice marketing quotas were in effect for the 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959
and 1960 crops. For 1960, producers approved rice quotas by a 90.5 percent
favorable vote; for 1959, 86.9 percent; for 1958, 90.0 percent; for 1957, 91.4
percent; for 1956, 84.6 percent and for 1955, 90.2 percent.








RS-5


JaWAUr 1961


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RS-5


- 15


JANUARY


1961


Legislation


Current legislation provides that if growers approve marketing quotas,
the support price for rjce is determined at the discretion of the Secretary
after consideration of the eight factors specified under section 401 (b) of the
Agricultural Act of 1949, as amended. However, the support level cannot be in
excess of 90 percent of parity, nor less than 75 percent of parity for the 1959
and 1960 crops; 70 percent of parity for the 1961 crop and 65 percent of parity
for the 1962 and subsequent crops.


The 1961


rice acreage


allotment of


1,652,596 acres was


the minimum


acreage
vision
Beginn
quired
exceed,
clamat


that


, the 1
ing wit
to be
s the n
ion was


could be procla


961


h the
procl
normal
requ


omput
1961
aimed
supp
ired


ed al
crop
for
ly (P
only


excess of the normal supply.
to States and counties and t
farms on the basis of produce
only when recommended by Sta


imed under current 1
lotment would have b
, acreage allotments
the next succeding y
'.L. 86-408). For 19
when the total supply
The national rice
he State and county
ers' history or farm


te Committees


legislation.
een about 1
and market
ear whenever
60 and earl
y was more
acreage all
allotments
history.


and approved


Wi
539
ng
'th
er


than
otme
are
Farm


by the


thout this pro-
,000 acres.
quotas are re-
e total supply
years, such pro-
10 percent in
nt is apportioned
apportioned to


history is


used


Secretary.


THE WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK


World Rice
Continues


Production
To Rise 4/


World rice production
year earlier and indications
1958-59 record. The world ri
pounds compared with 480.6 bi
in 1958-59 (table 6).


in 1960-61 (August-July) is expected to be above
point to a crop slightly larger than the previous
ce crop of 1960-61 is forecast at 487.6 billion
lion pounds in 1959-60 and 486.8 billion pounds


Estimated 1960-61 world rice acreage, at 289 million acres, is nearly
2 percent larger than last year and 12 percent above the 1950-54 average.
More land was put into rice in all continents, except Europe and possibly Oceania,
with the major acreage increase occurring in Asia.

The world rice crop outside Communist areas in 1960-61 will probably
exceed last year's record output. Acreage increased 3 million acres. However,
yields per acre may not attain the 1959-60 level, since weather was not quite
so favorable.


3/ Except
and Outlook,
of the Forei
4/ From Fo


r the statement
as prepared by
Agricultural
ign Crops and M


on 1960
Dexter V
Service.
markets,


-61 production, the World Rice Situation
Rivenburgh, Rice Marketing Specialist


lorld Summaries,


Crops


Livestock,


i


W






..:



RS-5 16- JAIMURT 1961 ,

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.. .
000
a a

SODm
-O -^
CQOE^
mob
a.a .a. ..
000
SO00




C- a>
9an







S- .* -

a. a. .. ..
S^MN








?ig
a a
.. *














~D,N
Iw rfI r^
I ri 0




a a
707


^mao


qrM







.. a. .. a..


'DOS'
** ** *






* -
WNC

000
ann







r-N-
N II r

.. .. ** ..
000

wrn











CO(V .


.* a* *
* .. .
000


oim

S **







* a
am o Qe me

*r.








.4..
WOP




as ** e *B mi







a sir




.5.

*ol.

a, 0
.3?
COOE
see




SLOf
cpa





WWB
4

ah a
0 #
a
U a

*40
9


*H E

Ou3
9I a


.0 1-kr









U


'If
*

ou~
c2e




lee


4' 1..B

U~
gP'



0a.

SI.-


&1i


o0'L

d~al


S~


U~P

30$



4.343
4.3*1









Sek




.3.4

d C






14
1.0
r U
I. i


rl n in p






RS-5


U. S. Shares i


JAUARIY 1961


larger


world Rice Trade


MIL. METRIC TONS


n


1953


-...- I


Total world exports



OTHERS


THAILANDli"


BURMA


UNITED STATES


1954


1955


1956


1957


19i


-- -__ -


50 1961


FA.-NEG .21S


The United States


Burma, Thailand and Comunist China.
calendar year 1959, with about half


ranked fourth in 1960 world rice trade


U. S. exports
going to Asb .


-- next


rose 53 recent over the
xpors to the western


Hemisphere


increased


, and


those to


Europe and Africa decreased slightly.


U.S.


Rice Sales for Dollars


At Highest Level Since 1955


MIL CWT.


1956


1957


1958


1959 1960


YEAR ENDING JUNE 30


PAl~hEG


In the year ending June


dollars
Exrorts


-- mainly to Europe


under Government


1960,


Cuba and Africa


prograSms


also rose


United States rice export


-- were the


Sales


largest


sales


since


1955.


for foreign currency were


USDa


~Is


I'_=_|






RS-5


- 19


JANUARY 1961


omnmmist China in I960 put more


acreage


into rice,


but adverse weather again


reduced yields


per acre.


World Trade in 160
A New Postwar Record


international


trade


in rice


for the


calendar year


1960 apparently


established a new postwar re


were reasonably stable,


1959.


pattern for


they
1960


and appeared stronger than


cord.


During most of 1960,


showed quite diff
showed good import


in 1959


(table 8),


although


total


erent marketing patterns


exports
than in


demand through the entire year
particularly in Asia, Africa and


Europe .


In the previous year,


ing the first half


of the year


the volume


of trade


the second half


was extremely sluggish dur-
of 1959 experienced a rapid


increase


in sales and shipments,


so that


total level


of exports for the


year represented


the highest


since


World War


Table


7.--Rice, milled equivalent:


Imports into principal importing countries, calendar years,


average 1951


annual 1956


Country


Average
1951-55


1958 1/


1959 I/


- ----------- ---- -- -- -.*m -- -- ---- ---l- --- ----- -^ ---------____


Mil. Ib.


Mil. lb.


Mil. Ib.


Mil. Ib.


Mil. Ib.


Ceylon


1.153


Hong Kong
India
Indonesia


Japan
Korea
Malaya
Pakistan
Philippine Republic
Arabian Peninsula
Cuba

Belgium Luxembourg
France


Germany, West
Netherlands
United Kingdom


2,438
246
1,113

132
223
470

83
125
189


French West Africa


Maurizius


Other countries


World total


10,815


1,675
43
1,304
972
93
361
300

182
172
258
163
188

191
99
4,037

14,320


765
445
1.163
950
172
385
422

140
196
197
132
186

310
137
3,392

13,837


1,114
15
1,413
757
509
375
426

114
132
264
151
190

206
155
3,483

13,612


611
7
1,400
666
0
521
380

172
187
342
179
188

438
126
4,138

13,968


qlmmmm- -s- ---------------- -m -- ------- - -.1111111111111111111m






"5-5


- 20


JANUARY 1961


Table 8


Rice,
ealen


milled equivalent:
dar years, average


Exports from principal world areas,


1951-55,


annual 1956-59


Country
of origin


Average
1951-55


1956


1957


: 1958 V


: 1959 V


: Million
: pounds


Million
pounds


Million
pounds


Million
pounds


Million
pounds


Asia:
Burma


2,910
225
2/630
291
210
3,042


Cambodia
Communist China
Pakistan


Taiwan


Thailand


Vietnam
Other countries
Total

Western Hemisphere:
United Stated
Argentina
Brazil
British Guiana
Ecuador
Uruguay
Other countries
Total


4&,iii


2/2,300


190
,805
2


3,865
129
(1,085
5
319
3,474
405


3,109
465
g/2,880
4
431
2, 513
248


3,747
426
2/3,530
183
353
2,428
542


7,t19 9,732 9,62 9, 89 11,567


1,389 2,148 1,731 1,305 1,554
31 69 39 73 15
151 224 1 114 22
84 93 85 40 126
60 26 84 57 37
27 84 18 21 2
77 37 44 52 69


1,819


2,681


i, 662


1,825


Europe:

Spain
Portugal
Other countries


141

130


214
25
162


Total


1,092


Africa:


Malagasay Republic


U. A. R.


Egypt


Other countries


Total


352 620 742 1,011 199..


Australia


World


total


10, 728


14,199


13,280


13,1462 ~~ ~ic .1


5/ Preliminary.
e/ sPrm returns of importing countries.
I/ Lese than 500,000 pounds.


Foreign Agricultural Service.


.Ei 41: ~!


..I ...,,,;128~i;;;


94


L.A"'i~


x|


- -


--


_


a;aEE:E:


X"I~~:"""EE ~,aE~b:~n~i"ju]g~:,qiBi~Bi~~~






BS-5 21 JANUARY 1961
I.
Table 9 .- Rice, milled: United States exports to specified
countries, 1956-59 1/

: Year beginning August
Country of : : :
destination 1956 : 1957 1958 : 1959
I a a a
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
S cwt. cwt. cut. cwt.
Western Hemisphere:
Canada 376 293 267 283
Bahamas 21 11 30 64
British Honduras 33 24 25 52
Cuba 4,054 4,246 4,113 3,101
Guatemala 2Q 68 24 11


Mexico


Netherlands Antilles
West Indies Federation


Bolivia
Chile
Peru
Venzuela


Other countries
Total

Belgium-Luxembourg


ijest


Genoany,


Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Other countries
Total
Asia:
Ceylon
India
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
Korea, Republic of
Nansel and Nanpo Islands
Pakistan
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Other Arabia
Turkey
Other countries
Total
Africa:
Egypt
French West Africa
Ghana
Liberia
Union of South Africa
Other countries


Total


Oceania
Ryukyu Islands 4/
Section 416 donations
Destination not specified
World total
_/ Includes small quantity
than 500 cvt. 3/ Includes 6
- / T-.sj,..A.n OflflhndW^nan he n


5,019 5,895 4,835 5,029

686 76 315 341
20 30 1,116 678
50 14 350 575
16 12 34 58
58 32 26 39
34 444 505
40 29 87 71
870 227 2,372 2,267

331 1,078 904
4,376 --- --- 4,413
5,424 753 116 3,347
--- 5 24 361
:-7 1 93 94
2,746 242 --- --
2 2 199 394
4,372 3,453 1,169 173
20 554 1,140 2
98 151 114 9
22 126 189 142
218 --- 115 ---
118 6 6 133
17,403 5.624 4,243 10,050

--- 5 489 447
--- --- 526 44
--- 3 32 177
248 270 377 422
15 4 50 307
4 11 93 129
267 293 1,567 1.526
47- 52 50o b5
207 145 --- ---
2,036 683 b51 1,634
5/301 17 22 7


26,150


of rough rice


12,936


13,740


converted to terms of milled at


20,577


percent.


Less


3,000 bags to Argentina. / Programed by ICA and shipped by the Army.
in...sAl wmnhi w aA Pnr animal ?n nnl aiv tih Ph nnt nllu* iiA In







- 22


JANUARY 1961


Table 10.- Rice, milled: United States exports to specified countries,
August-October 1960, with comparisons ~/
zAugust-JMly August-Oc tob: October
Country of destination : 1959-60 199 1960 19S9 : 1960


Western RHeisphere:
Canada ..**........,.,.
Bahamas ,,.**..**.*.***
British Honduras *..*..
Cuba *.....*...*.....*e
El Salvador ...*....***
Mexico d.a .....o..... o
Netherland Antilles .,.
Argentina *..**.*....
Chile ................
Other countries ..**...


1,000


283
6L
52
3,101
80
278
82
63
205
1,o8b


.2
a:
a:


1,000
c w.


1,000
cut.

58
21
10
118

75
0
56
78


1,000
cwt.

20
2
0
175
0


1,000
out.


Total ................
Europe:
Belgium-Luxetbourg .....


Greece .........
Germany, West ..
Netherlands ...
Poland .........
Portugal .......
Spain ......*e..
Sweden .......0.
Switzerland ....
United Kingdom .
Yugoslavia .....
Other countries
Total ...,,..
Asia:
Ceylon ..,......
Hong Kong .....
India ....******
Indonesia .,..,
Iraq ...........
Israel .........
Nansei & Nanpo I
Pakistan ......


.la. *l


4****a**
islandss


Philippine Republic
Saudi Arabia .....,.
Other Arabia .......
Other countries ,...
Total ............
Africa:
Egypt ..............
French West Africa .
Ghana ow,..,..r*.*a,,
Liberia ............
Nigeria ..........,
Union of South Afric
Other countries ....
Total ............
Oceania ......*****.......
Other ,**,**.*****...


a


5,292 : 1,275 2l 560 186

3U1 165 5"1 37 ; 22
6h : 7 : 2 : 3 : 1
678 157 131 118 85
575 : 118 170 91 : 57
83 0 7 -0 0
50 0 25 z 0 : 0
75 o 35 o o 0
58 : 2I : 36 10 I 17
39 2 19 I 9
505 116 97 53 : 42
122 : 0 ; 27 s 0 0
120 : 18 : 15 : 6 5
2,0 637 615 322 23U


686
O0
O0
1,311
138
21
2
9h
0
195
29
5s


... a
....:.
..,..5/
****


10,909 s 2,337 ,


ensir


t



a


179
5
19
3/-


0
57
1,357
Ilb
20
52
9
31"


1*12
0
0
500
126
6
1


0

1,08.. .. .i
0
2
i:ll

0


30 : 19 : Li 1
260 2 a 133 V1
1,895 1,075 a l1277 7'


7 : 9 : i61
118 : h
7 : 1 Ii.
161 : 28 : 81 :.i.
68 : 0 E! a


1,595 : 737 17 73 205

7 a 3 : 0 1 a 0


World total ........: 20,577 a ,,998 a 3,65 : 2,031 : 1,909
/ Includes small quantity of rough rice in milled equivalent. 2/ Includes
Section 6 donations. Less than '00 ~ wt. hi/ includes 7lh.000 at.. to Peru and






RS-5


- 23


JANUARY 1961


The apparent increase in demand, as indicated by the new postwar record
exports estimated for 1960, involves several factors. These include changes in
price levels, some increases in per capital consumption, population increases,
small increases in per capital income and, in a few instances, the attempts to
{ build up reserve stocks.


Stability continued in 1960 regardless of continued shifts in the pattern
of exports by destination. Japan again showed a decline in total imports and
no longer represented a major world market for rice, the Philippines approached
self-sufficiency, and Korea and West Pakistan showed increased exports.


U. S. Exports of Rice in 1959-60
Almost 50 Percent Over Year Earlier


United States exports of rice totaled 20.6 million cwt.,
milled, for the marketing year beginning August 1, 1959 (table
increase of almost 50 percent over a year earlier and second to
26.2 million cwt. exported in 1956-57.


Rice exports for dollars were t
nearly 40 percent of total U.S. export
under Government programs. Exports fo
of 1958-59 and comprised approximated
mainder was shipped under grants (Sect
and barter.


in terms of
9). This is an
the record of


he highest since 1954-55, amounting to
s. There was also a gain in exports
r foreign currency nearly tripled those
50 percent of total exports. The re-
ion 416 donations and disaster relief)


U. S. Exports August-October
Below Last Year


Exports of rice,
1960 were approximately
months (table 10). This
Cuban market and a sligh
purchases made by India,
were not delivered as of


U. S. exports to the
variations. The exceptions
drastically curtailed short
to which we did not export
ment their shortage.


including rough in terms of milled, in August-October of
1.5 million cwt. below last year's total for the same
was due primarily to a loss of a million cwt. in the
t decrease in exports to Europe. However, there were
Indonesia and Pakistan under P. L. 480 agreements which
October 31, 1960 amounting to about 7.5 million cwt.


Western Hemisphere generally showed only seasonal
to this were Cuba, to which U. S. exports, were
ily after the marketing year began, and Argentina,
any rice in 1960 following 1959 exports to supple-


Exports to Canada were up sharply, probably reflecting lower supplies
from other Western Hemisphere sources. Mexico, the Canal Zone, the Bahamas,
the Netherland Antilles, Peru and Bolivia took increased amounts while exports
to Guatemala, El Salvador, Chile and British Honduras were below last year.


iii
i:


!







RS-5


Table


11.- Rice, milled:


S. exports


year beginning July,


Year


beginning
July


by type of sale,


l95~4-59


STAN


e


Under Government Programs


For
dollars


Mil.
cet.


1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 2/


: foreign
: currency
Mil.


0.2
3.4
18.0
5.1
3.9
I .O


Barter


Mil.
ct.

1/
.2
.6

2.0


Other


programs


Mil.
ct.

0.2
2.8
2.9
1.1
.9
%i


- 24 -


I/ Less than 0.5 million cvt.
2/ Preliminary.

Foreign Agricultural Service.


Table


12.- Rice,


milled:


U. S.


exports under Title


I of P.L.


480 (for foreign


currency),


by country of destination,
'*a 'i *^ .* "


Year begi n ina Juk


Country


destination


1955


1956


1957


1958


1959 _/


1,000
cwt.


Argentina
Ceylon

- aInla
Idonesia
Israel
Japan
Korea
Pais tan

Philippines
Turkey
Egypt


1,000
t..:


1evt.


4,339
5, 924


2,142

382


2,382
* ^


1000


-- 1~
1,078
11


100S


60
907


3,778
3,278
87


x" GliB8


3l~,


1:E% b~rli> cc"~~:: ,",^;~~E^;
1:,~~~ -""~"",
t. j


---
-- -


--I -- -


.-t~al


18,127


5,094


J iI77---- --w--- -9j~r~-------


l/ Preliminary.


~>


19 -59
xx x xxx x x


V


'E'";F"""""V;


;p;;;~
;II


~~~~i~xarx~~


UARY 1961 :;i




*i.
Total a1
exportss


Mil. -I
cut. ::a|
M=i

12.4
27.1
12.1 i
14.3 =|
"1|
2S-





NB-,


- 25


JANUARY 1961


There were same increases in exports to Africa--Tunisia, Ghana, Nigeria,
the Republic of the Congo and the Union of South Africa. Exports to Liberia
were down about 61,000 cwt. due, in part, to internal controls. There was no
movement at all to French West Africa except under aid programs, as was the case
in 1959.


In Europe the status of trade was better as cash commercial sales were up
and barter deliveries down, even though exports from the United States for the
3 months were down some 159,000 cwt., compared with last year, to the United


Kingdom, Belgium-Lux
were ineligible for 1
and the Netherlands.
lover level than in
to that country from
Saudi Arabia showed I
largely to the fail
destination.


emborg and West
barter in 1960.
Exports to Ir
the same months
other sources
some increase b
re of shippers


1 Germany. Most of the European countries
Exports increased to Sweden, Switzerland
.aq continued into 1960-61 although at a much
i of a year earlier when supplies available
were abnormally low. Exports to Lebanon and
ut those moving to Kuwait were down due


to provide required qualities


to that


In the Asian markets, some
Singapore and Malaya for the first
temporary market conditions, both
able. Fall sales against Title I,
over 8.8 million cwt. for India, I
cwt. unshipped as of October 31.


cash sales of U. S. rice occurred in both
time. This was probably influenced by their
as to price and the volume of supplies avail-
P.L. 48Q agreements were heavy, amounting to
ndonesia and Pakistan, with some 7.5 million


Section 416 donations in the first 3 months of the marketing year totaled
463,735 cwt. as compared with only 15,000 cwt. in the same period a year earlier.


Generally,

World Stocks as of


1960-61 marketing year was off to a good start.


January 1i,


1961


Stocks of old-crop rice in the hands of principal Asian exporters at t
close of the 1960 calendar year were likely lower than for the previous year,


despite
filling
point to
carry-in


larger supplies available for export during the year. Some delays in
late 1960 orders on the part of Burma, Thailand and Vietnam seem to
stocks being reduced even below adequate working levels. Total world
stocks for 1961 are generally lower but not to a point that indicates


any over-all shortage. During the past 3 years, annual exports have increase
ly come from the current crop or from the crop of the preceding year. Stocks
rice within the United States continue to move down from the highs of 1955 an
1956 but at a much slower rate than in other rice exporting countries. This
been largely due to the Government policy of orderly liquidation of surplus r
stocks to insure a much desired stability in the world market and to protect,


far as possible,


.ng-
I of
rd
has
'ice
as


the position of major rice exporters.


Stocks of rice held by major deficit rice countries are still adequate to
provide a buffer against short-run curtailment of domestic supplies and the
resulting fluctuations of internal prices. Some starts have been made toward






liSa,


-26-


JADTaHY 1961


requirements have tended to negate such efforts with war excess rice obtainable
moving rather rapidly into current consuuption channels. The position of major
exporting countries in so far as carryover stocks me concerned is a ajor point
ipon which to place an evaluation of 1961 prospects. Generally speaking, the
free-world countries have not seen any build-up of unmarketable stocks. Me-
over, Oiunist-controlled areas uadoubtedly do not have the stocks of rice that
they had in the last few years.


World Rice Prices .:!1
Below 1959

Rice prices for 1960, as a whole, as represented by f.o.b. prices for
free-world exports, probably averaged about 6 percent below those of 1959. The
decline followed an over-all reduction of about 8 percent in 1959 compared with
1958. Prices of lon-grpain varieties averaged a 7 percent reduction from 1959
compared with a 9 percent reduction in 1959 from a year earlier. Mdim-gpain
rice fared the best 4th a 1 to 2 percent reduction in 1960 aint a 5 percent
reduction in 1959, wvhle short-grain rice was down 5 percent in both years.

It appears that long-grain varieties more nearly follow a free market
than do medium or short-pgrain varieties, because less long-grain varieties are
sold under Government to Govermuent contracts, or trading arrangements of a .:
barter type, than other varieties. For example, the heater portion of the rice


.marketed by BEm the country which is consistently the
porter of rice -- is of a medim-rain type. A relatively
Burma's exports is in fulfillment of Government contracts.
largely responsible for the lover rate of price decline of


It is also apparent that


price changes that ma
tion coming fra both
prices for hier qual
milling facilities to
upgrade the product by
:XX X~ t.X XXB X.* K KKK X "X


As
quoted at
Long rail
compared
per cmt.,


of
$5.
ns,
with


the eun
70 per
15 per
i $5.07
roared


a


the higher the quality the
th qamt


occur. This is a highly co
equal and lover qualities.
cities makes it profitable fo
shift their takings to lover
reprocessing.
S'' ** ** *.** S" *: *IK!'" 'L ,; K !


Id of December, Thailand long p
* cvt. at Bangkok compared with
'cent broken, were at $5. 50 per
a year earlier and prices of B
with $3.00 a year earlier.
K~~ X lihF. X:~'XF XX. X^. XX XX


world's largest ex-

In addition, this is '
medir pain..

more abrupt are the


petitive field th cmpet-
Any abrupt upward movement of
r mporters with adeq te .
and cheaper Qualities and to


sin, 5 percent broken, was
about $5.60 a year earlier.
cvt. at the same market
broken A-i Special were $3.80


Medkim pains, while generally undergoing a less drastic decline than long ..
pains, have lately shown about a 3 percent advance over the average for 1960 in
forward contracting, announced thus far for 1961 in connection with Government
contracts. Advance contracting for medium grain of base gades and qualities
ap this year are relatively heavy, with prb ous oit
- tons under Government to Government contracts as of January 1.
'*''* ** .* -- -.----.... s r.. l. __-,^K^^.. .' ..... .^'^K


On the other hand, prices, particularly of long rains and broken, weak-


x~^.rx:L"rP::liE ~





RS-5


- 27


JANUARY 1961


some
ter,


instances, moved to the highest levels
prices declined only to advance again


for some
toward the


time.
end


In the third
of the year.


quar-


Prospective supplies and prices of long-grain
indicative of the trend of world prices. Prices in
expected to be relatively stable and remain fairly c


* varieties are fairly
the next 12 months are
lose to those of 1960.


The market for long-gra
Better milling, better grading
to further increase competition
these same factors, may again i
short grains could fluctuate mi
imports, which only a few year
consumer preference is definite
demand for the short grains.
preferences for long-grain ric
export demand and with short-g


in rice


will


continue


and more active
n. Prices of med
approximate the s
ore widely. The
s ago represented
ely for short-gra
This is followed


e on the
rain rice


European
a major


mark
ium
tabi
cont
the
in r
also
con
pre


to be highly


eting p
grains,
lity of
inual r
large
ice, ha
with g
tinent.
ference


policies
-hni rh


1960.
educti
t impo
s affe
radual
With


competitive.


LA


on
rt
ct
s
t


in Comm


are expected
subject to
Prices of
. of Japanese
is and where
ed world
hifts in
his lowered
'unist China


and other Communist areas
less stable than for either


f consumption,


long-


prices


or medium-grain


in the coming years may
types.


World Rice Trade


in 1961


trading


of the past two
year will depend


y


ears
on we


ports by India, Pakist
to be heavy. Pakistan
of unfavorable growing
those of last year and
reduction in Japanese
from Taiwan where subs
Any reduction which wi


in rice


is expected


(table 8). Whether
father conditions in
an, Ceylon, Malaya


'S
CO
im


requirements
nditions in
ports are li


imports
tantial
11 take


will b
export
place


B
S


may
1960
kely
in
app


continue


or not it
late spri
and Indone
exceed th
. Japan' s
to again
the quanti
ear to be


n Japanese


at about t
will exceed


ng and ea
sia will
,ose of la
needs wi
decline.
ties prev
unlikely


purchases,


he high levels
that of last


rly summer. Im-
likely continue
st year because
11 be less than
Much of the
iously obtained
for some time.


accordingly,


will


have practically no effect on world requirements.


Western Hemisphere requirements should remain about the same but some
major shifts in sources of supply, such as occurred in the second half of
1960 in the case of Cuba, will continue to be a factor. Demand requirements
will continue to rise appreciably in Africa and to some extent in the European
market.


World Export Availability in 1961
About the Same as Year Earlier


Supplies of rice


available


not differ substantially from
supplies available for export
Communist China probably will
tions. If there should be any
it may well be in the reduced
.av.w' A en..ma ae abn., AI H a 1 a ta w


for export


those
in fre
be les
lower
export
+hcn


of last
e-world
s, beca
ing of
s from
a lvain


throughout


year.
* country
use of
the lev'
Communi
snrl low


Th
ies
unf
el
st


the world in 1961


will


are may be additional
but availabilities in
favorablee 1960 crop condi-
of world trade in 1961,
China; exports from free-
har ina n nmn inimnat n+


World


!






RS-5


-28-


JANUARY 1961


Similarly, world trade in 1961 should not be in any way affected by stocks
rice in exporting countries from crops produced prior to 1960.


The 1
production,
throughout 1
appears that
to command a


weighted
high leve
the incre
grades.
has been


Paki
obta
trie
of t
incr


,evel


of export availability in 1961,


is expected to be
960 with no prono
the higher quali
premium in some
the side of lower
f 1960 will mean
will be in lower


of the ch
doubling


stan and Ceylon.
inable-- the lower
s combined represe
rade in the higher


eas


qualities


should
will


while


including


increases in


reasonably in balance with effective demand
unced trends to favor either buyer or seller. It
ties will not be in oversupply and will continue
markets. World trade in rice, however, is heavily
grades and any extension in exports above the
that proportionately a far higher percentage of
grades and qualities, rather than in the higher


anges which has taken place in the market s
of the quantities of rice imported by India
This has generally been confined to the che
qualities. The doubled imports from these
nt over 20 percent of present world trade.
qualities probably will continue and the r
.n the next decade. Even if this does devel


still remain a relatively small


In recent years,


acr
ext
lik
use
mor
div
whi
The
yie


eage
ent,


world rice production


, either on reclaimed paddy
through increased yields.


ely to come about more from impr
of better seed, more fertilizer
e important in the future. Howe
ersification of crop production
ch may offset what otherwise mig
beginning of a direct shift of
Ids may tend to slow up the press


h


land or on
In the next
oved yields
and improve
ver, there


by bo
ht be


emphasis


factor i

continued


ince 1956
, Indonesia,
apest rice
four coun-
The growth
ate of annual
op, the higher


n the over-all market.


to rise


new lands, and,
decade further i
than from added
ed cultural pract
is also likely to


through expanded
to a greater
increases are
acreages. The
;ices will be
Sbe a further


th exporting and importing countries
additional acreages planted to rice.


from added acreage


ent rate of annual increase


to improved
in world produc-


tion for a period of tim


World acreage of
but has failed to any m
increase in per capital 4
reflecting higher birth
economic development of
demand in coming years.
on productive capacity


e. *
.i:
rice has risen over 60 percent in the pqpt half century "
re than offset population growth and allow fro P ITte
consumption rates. Rapidly exEandinf world nation.
rates as well as the drive for improved diets, and
less developed areas of the world will expand world
Such expansion is expected to exert continued pressure
n some years to come.


Outlook Good for Exports of Rice
From the United States


Total exports of rice from the United States will likely continue at ,
fairly high levels in the years ahead, al tOygh y wbnotbj eqatpg
those of 1960 unless the Cuban market is again available. Cash sales to areas
other than Cuba will likely show a gradual increase, and disposals of rice


of


L


V






RS-5


- 29


JANUARY 1961


under Government programs should continue in substantial volume. The extension
of cash sales should be the most pronounced in the Western Hemisphere (exclu-
sive of Cuba), Africa, Europe and the Middle East. European and African out-
lets will perhaps be the most competitive.


Market Development


Work


The U. S. Rice
Foreign Agricultural
underway through the
The Association conti
and in demonstrating
at international food
exhibits are planned
projects are now under


Export Development


Serv
util
nued
its
fai
at s
rway


ice
iza
an
use
rs
imi
in


made consider
tion of foreign
d expanded its
Large exhibi
in London and M
lar fairs in va
West Germany,


association in cooperation with


ble pr
curre
effort
ts and
lunich
.rious


ogr
ncy
s i


r
u


Switzerland,


ess in getting
available unde
n exhibiting U.
monstrations we
ing the year.
entries. Large


projects
r P. L. 480.
S. rice
re put on
Further
promotional


the Netherlands,


Belgium,


Sweden and


the United Kingdom.


The Association is
various interested groups
groups are also bearing pa
are being trained to spend
countries, operating under
agreed upon.


operating the European p
of the rice industry in
rt of the expense of the
full time in the promote
a promotional plan that


project in cooperation with
those countries. These
projects. Local personnel
ion of rice within individual
has been developed and


The next issue of The Rice Situation
will be released in January, 1962.







-30 -


-JA R 1961.


Table


13.- Rice,


Acreage,


yield and production,


Southern


StataB,


Irornia


and United


StateB,


1930-60


: Harvested creage Average yield per harvested acre Production

year : Southern : : United Southern United : Southern Uned
States / :Califora : Sta : States 1,tae : California: Sgta Saes I/ :California : Sats
: ettorl:5ae


: 1,000
Sabres


1,000
acres


1,000
acres


Pounds


Pounds


Pounds


1,000
cwt.

16,91.6
16, 361
15,219
13,833
13,856


1,000


20,218
20,076
18,729
16,943


2,192

2,129


2,291


3.350


20,247
19,308
23,1 00
22, 712
2, 224
24,4J2
24,625


2la,1.95


2,194


&2/l1,502(




2/g1, 308


2 S9


2,515


37.491
33,236
33316

o0,899


8,270
10,692
11,711
12,325
12,1641
11,350
12,012
9,718
II,080

13,536


38,845
46,118
48,271
52,918
64,248
55,969
49,503
42,954L


54',I35


1/e

eInde


Southern
Bs acreage
a, (4fl i
I in i63,
~i) it 1960.


tates


consist


and product
n 196 2(
5 (55 In


of Texas


ion in


minor


44) in 1947,
195, 4 (671


LouEia naa


States,
3 (53)


ani Arrkansas


inr thousand acres
nr 1948, 1 (20) in


In 1955, 2 t(4)


in 1956,


and beginning


and thousand
19.9, 2 (25)


1 (19) iLn


1997


in 1949, Misslssippi


cVt.


in 1950,
, 1 (i5)


parenthes
1 (29) in
in 1958,6


and Missouri.


ea) as follows: 2
1951 6 (78) in 1
1 (22) in 1959 amd


2 In-
(36)
952.


Preliminary.


Data published


currentlyy


j ,"" B


in Qrc~ Pr~tctiof (MU).


able 1h


.- Rice,


milled


eqll Jalent.


Total


per capital


ccnaswnption


Continental


*1 1909-59


Year
beginning
AUeLb16


Ccr~nswlitiptio


Total I


Per


:: Year
*biehgtn
A ;ugnst


: Potal


Corraalmption

: capital


:: Year


Augunt.


~ansinn

** ~cB)itB


: Mil. lb.


4,


,^ vk ::


N2EIa flE


S^:";,j


:: 1934


1952


: 1954
:: 1955
:: 195b
.. .... 1957
:: .1958
:: 1959
..:


874

633
837
885
957
970


1,018


Li consumption in Cot ~tflenta1 US.4s caloulatet by eating t~ begifl pa


1/Tote


1917

199


5.8



5.5
5.8
5.8

5.1
5.8


1


^, :?
E,,


E~ili


rl ct~raxlmBtj;oP, 19 60tr


eel~ Isyy


WS,,Ss


ssx::s~:mx~.al~


i




f:.
iif
RS-5 31 JANUARY 1961


INDEX


OF TABLE


Page


Table
number


RICE


Acreage, Yield and Production


-- United States


By States and United States, 1959 and 1960 ...........
Southern States, California and United States, 1930-60


Acreage, Yield and Production -- World
By countries, average 1950-54, annual 1958-60


Acreage
Allotments, by States, 1959-61


!C: Price Support Operations, Support Price and
Price Received by Farmers, 1940-60 .........


Season Average


Consumption -- United States
Total and per capital consumption, 1909-59 ....**.*..*.....

Exports
United States:
Exports, by country of destination, 1956-59 ...*.......
Exports, by country of destination, August-October 1960,
with comparisons ............................ .
Exports, by type of sale, 1954-59 .........***.**.***--.
Exports under Title I of P. L. 480, 1955-59 ...........
World:
Exports from principal world areas, average 1951-55,
annual 1956-59 ........ ..... *********. ---*******


Imports Into Principal Importing Countries,


Average


1951-55,


Annual 1956-59 ..............| |.*.||. |*..| |."||*.||*|**** ******

Prices Received by Farmers, U.S. and Average Wholesale Prices at
New Orleans and San Francisco, 1949-60 ....... ..................

Supply and Distribution, United States, 1937-61 .....................






U. 8. Department of Agricull
Wash gton 25, D. C.


OFFICIAL


38-5


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08589 328!


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