Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00236

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text






'OT1 Oi



U.S. Department of Comme
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS ,


J -CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders


OCTOBER 1980
M3-1(80)-10
For Wire Transmission 3:00 P. M. Thursday, December 4, 1980

text below are in seasonally adjusted dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods in October increased
$2.7 billion or 1.7 percent from September, to $158.4 billion
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, reported
today. The durable goods industries showed the same percent-
age increase for the month, going up $1.4 billion to $80.7
billion. Excluding the defense category, new orders for durable
goods were up $3.8 billion or 5.3 percent. Durable goods orders
in September and October were heavily influenced by the
month-to-month movements in the defense' category. In
September, defense orders were up $1.9 billion or 43 percent
to $6.5 billion, while in October they dropped to $4.0 billion,
a decline of $2.5 billion or 38 percent.
New orders for primary metals in October increased $1.3
billion or 10.2 percent to $13.8 billion. Within the primary
metals category, steel orders, which were valued at $7.2 billion,
accounted for a $0.9 billion increase. Since May, when steel
orders dropped to $3.4 billion, orders have been steadily in-
creasing at an average rate of 13 percent per month. Fabricated
metal producers reported a $1.1 billion or 12.1 percent increase
in October new orders. New orders for electrical machinery in
October were also up $1.1 billion, an 11.5 percent increase over
the September volume of $10.0 billion.
The only major declines in new orders came from the trans-
portation equipment industries where orders were down in
total $2.9 billion or 16.3 percent to $15.0 billion. Without the
declines in defense orders for aircraft and ships, new orders for
transportation equipment had a 1.7 percent increase. New
orders for the nondefense capital goods industries as a group
decreased $0.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $20.7 billion, with
declines in aircraft and shipbuilding more than offsetting in-
creases in the machinery categories.
Shipments of manufactured products in October were valued
at $156.9 billion, up $4.2 billion or 2.7 percent from September.
Most of the durable goods industries reported increases, the
largest of which were in motor vehicles,2 up $1.1 billion or 12.8
percent to $9.9 billion; andsteel,up $0.6 billion or 10.7 percent
to $5.8 billion. Shipments in the household durable goods
category increased $0.2 billion or 3.9 percent to $5.2 billion.
After declining during the first half of 1980 to a low of $4.6
billion in June, the volume of shipments of household durables
has increased 3 of the last 4 months.

For all of the defense capital goods series, modified seasonal adjust-
ment factors were used to account for the change in the Federal


Shipments by nondurable goods manufacturers increased
$1.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $77.5 billion. Chemical shipments
which were up $0.7 billion or 5.1 percent, and petroleum ship-
ments which were up $0.5 billion or 3.8 percent accounted for
most of the increase. The value of shipments of food products
was down $0.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $21.9 billion.
The value of manufacturers' unfilled orders increased to
$287.4 billion in October, up $1.4 billion or 0.5 percent. An
increase of $2.0 billion in primary metal orders backlogs,
$1.4 billion of which was for steel and $0.6 billion for non-
ferrous metals, more than offset the decline in transportation
equipment backlog of $1.3 billion or 1.2 percent.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories was $243.3
billion in October. This level has been virtually unchanged for
the last 5 months, as May inventories were valued at $243.4
billion. The inventory to shipments ratio of 1.55 for October
has been declining since June when the ratio was 1.72.
For durable goods manufacturers, motor vehicles and parts
inventories declined $0.3 billion or 3.5 percent to $7.1 billion,
steel inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $10.9
billion, and nonelectrical machinery inventories were down
$0.3 billion, 0.8 percent to $38.8 billion. The largest decline in
nondurable goods inventories was in petroleum products, down
$0.5 billion or 5.5 percent.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for November
is scheduled for release on December 19, 1980 and the full
report is scheduled for release on December 31, 1980.
Government's fiscal year from a July 1 through June 30 basis to an
October 1 through September 30 basis in 1976. These factors were
introduced in the July 1977 data and will continue to be used until
sufficient data are available to assess the impact of the change in the
fiscal year on the seasonal pattern of the industry.
2Motor vehicle assembly plants close down for retooling generally
during July, August, and September, for the forthcoming model year.
Due to year to year variations in the timing of this model changeover
period, the estimated seasonally adjusted monthly average for the quarter
is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3 months. Com-
parisons between the October value and the three month average shown
for September do not accurately reflect the relative month to month
changes. The seasonal factor used for October is based on data through
September, 1980. The seasonally unadjusted data as published are not
subject to any special estimating procedure.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order orby a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.








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Table 6. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORd)ERS--MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG-TKRM PERiCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of changet Average, 1975-1979

3 months 12 months
Item and industry group Sept.- August- July-
Oct. September August July- June- March- Oct 1 Average Average
1980 1980r 1980r October September June Oct. rise decline
1980 1980 1980

Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.................. +2.7 +4.2 +0.7 +2.5 +2.6 -1.9 +0.6 +1.6 -1.2
Durable goods industries.................... +3.7 +6-3 -0.7 +3.1 +3.5 -3.1 +0.4 +1.9 -1.9
Nondurable goods industries................. +1.8 +2.2 +2.0 +2.0 +1.7 -0.7 +0.9 +1.6 -0.7

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries................. -0.1 +0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 +0.7 +0.7 +0.7 -0.3

New orders:
All manufacturing industries.................. +1.7 +5.8 +0.1 +2.5 +4.0 -3.0 +0.6 +1.9 -1.2
Durable goods industries.................... +1.7 +9.9 -2.7 +2.8 +6.1 -5.0 +0.4 +2.8 -2.0
Nondurable goods industries................. +1.7 +1.8 +2.8 +2.1 +1.9 -1.1 +0.9 +1.5 -0.7

Unfilled orders;
Durable goods industries.... ............... +0.5 +1.0 +0.1 +0.5 +0.6 -0.5 +0.4 +1.2 -0.9

'Method of calculation of these percentages for 3 month and 12 month time intervals has been revised to reflect compounded monthly growth rates.


Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

nventories--shipments ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratio'
nventories--shimets ratio (months' backlog)
Industry group
October September August July October September August July
1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980

All manufacturing industries........................... 1.55 1.59 1.66 1.68 3.52 3.56 3.76 3.71

Durable goods industries..................................... 2.02 2.10 2.24 2.23 4.19 4.26 4.52 4.48
Stone, clay, and glass products............................ 1.41 1.38 1.52 1.50 0.68 0.66 0.75 0.74
Primary metals............................................. 1.69 1.78 1.94 2.03 2.50 2.45 2.50 2.50
Fabricated metals.......................................... 1.89 2.00 2.16 2.21 3.00 3.14 3.46 3.55
Machinery, except electrical............................... 2.65 2.68 2.89 2.82 4.22 4.19 4.51 4.43
Electrical machinery....................................... 2.05 2.13 2.14 2.19 3.61 3.71 3.79 3-82
Transportation equipment................................... 2.11 2.21 2.34 2.24 12.67 12.66 13.95 12.94
Instruments and related products........................... 2.29 2.33 2.38 2.50 1.70 1.75 1.76 1.85

Nondurable goods industries.................................. 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.14 0.70 0.69 0.72 0.68
Food and kindred products.................................. 0.98 0.96 0.94 1.00 (X) (x) (X) (X)
Tobacco products........................................... 2.98 3.25 3.00 3.00 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products...................................... 1 52 1.48 1.49 1.48 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products.................................. 1.20 1.22 1.30 1.27 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products.............................. 1.27 1.35 1.41 1.47 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products............................... 0.56 0.62 0,62 0.64 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c....................... 1.15 1.20 1.20 1.32 (X) (X) (X) (X)

(NA) Not available. PPreliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.
'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels, and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products: tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.





12

The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.

DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey etirm- inq, procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the e-ib ;trri.:'mi, in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 l-,rou*.h 1976. In the absence of benchmark data for un-
filled orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the
ratio of unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the
M3. These levels were reset as of December 1973. Historical
data, 196'"-1978, including the seasonally adjusted series, re-
flecting seasonal factors based on data through December 1978,
are published in the M3-1.8 report issued in August 1979.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of thie .d,,vi.iiriii errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in .l..-.l-i ,
these levels, the definition of .inTi,,..1 orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.




EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and e-sludng freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of e-3tahlis,shmnnts in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the inout of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories ,-picall,' are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. AlithouJi this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish
merit reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.







Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible, otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.









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