Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00235

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text
, .', -- /'- I CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS


"< "N Vanufacturers' Shipments,

\\ Inventories, and Orders


*475601 \\0 SEPTEMBER 1980
U.S. Department of Comm e M3-1(80)-9
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS ..wire Transmission 3:00 P.M. Friday, October 31, 1980

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods in September increased
$7.1 billion or 4.8 percent to $153.6 billion the Bureau of the
Census, Department of Commerce reported today. This increase
followed an August decline of 0.4 percent, revised from the
0.3 percent increase reported earlier for August, which was
based on less complete reporting.
New orders for durable goods were up $6.5 billion or 9.0
percent, with all industry categories except electrical machinery
reporting increases. Within the transportation industry category,'
the aircraft and parts industry increased $2.2 billion or 69 per-
cent to $5.4 billion, following a 44 percent decline in August.
Although new orders for this industry are volatile, the volume
of orders for September is comparable to the average monthly
volume of orders during 1979 of $5.5 billion.
New orders for nonelectrical machinery increased $1.4 billion
or 10.7 percent to $14.3 billion. This is the largest percentage
increase in that category since the 12.5 percent recorded in
January 1976. Within the primary metal industries, new orders
for steel increased $0.6 billion or 10.5 percent to $6.2 billion.
After dropping to a low in May of $3.4 billion, new orders for
steel have been steadily increasing, with the September volume
topping the previous high for the year of $5.9 billion recorded
in February. New orders for nonferrous metals increased $0.4
billion or 8.4 percent to $5.3 billion, following an August
decline of 8.2 percent.
Within the capital goods industries, new orders for defense
capital goods2 increased $2.0 billion or 52 percent to $5.9
billion, reflecting large orders received by the aircraft and ship-
building industries. New orders for nondefense capital goods
increased $1.2 billion or 6.0 percent to $20.5 billion. The
pattern of change for the specific nondefense categories was
mixed.
Shipments by manufacturers in September increased $5.0
billion or 3.4 percent to $151.7 billion Although shipments
have been increasing since June, they are still below the
February high of $152.9 billion. Shipments by the durable
goods industries' were up more significantly, increasing
$4.2 billion or 5.8 percent. Nearly all categories reported in-
creases, the largest of which were aircraft and parts, up $1.0
billion or 25 percent; nonelectrical machinery, up $0.8 billion


'Motor vehicle assembly plants close down for retooling generally
during July, August, and September, for the forthcoming model year.


or 5.6 percent; steel mills, up $0.6 billion or 12.8 percent; and
fabricated metal products, up $0.6 billion or 7.3 percent.
Shipments by nondurable goods manufacturers increased
$0.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $75.4 billion with increases by
chemical, paper, and apparel producers accounting for most
of the increase.
The backlog of manufacturers' orders in September increased
$2.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.4 billion. Unfilled orders in
the defense capital goods industries increased $2.2 billion or
4.0 percent. Without the defense capital goods industries,
manufacturers' backlog declined 0.1 percent.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories in September
increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $244.4 billion. Inventories
of durable goods manufacturers declined for the second consecu-
tive month, down $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent. Offsetting the
durable goods industry decline, inventories of nondurable goods
manufacturers increased $1.2 billion to 1.4 percent to $83.6
billion. A billion dollars of that increase came from the foods
industry.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for October
is scheduled for release on November 25, 1980, and the full
report is scheduled for release on December 4, 1980.


Year-to-year variations in both the timing and duration of the model
changeover period are sufficiently great that the normal seasonal ad-
justment procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during
the period and may introduce substantial erratic movement. To com-
pensate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted monthly average for
the quarter is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3
months. These seasonally adjusted data are recompiled each month as
additional information is received. The seasonally adjusted estimate of
shipments for motor vehicle assembly operations for the third quarter
was revised upward $0.6 billion or approximately $0.2 billion per month.
The seasonally unadjusted automotive data are not subject to any special
estimating procedure.
2 For all of the defense capital goods series, modified seasonal adjust-
ment factors were used to account for the change in the Federal Govern-
ment's fiscal year from a July 1 through June 30 basis to an October 1
through September 30 basis in 1976. These factors were introduced
in the July 1977 data and will continue to be used until sufficient data
are available to assess the impact of the change in the fiscal year on the
seasonal pattern of the industry.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell. (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.















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Table 6. 9NANl ACTItREI' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS-MONTll-TO-MONTH AND LONG-TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Averafe monthly rate of change Average, 1975-1979

3 months 1onth 1 nhs
Item and industry group August- July- June- Averge Average
S. ,l.- August July June- May- February- Sept. 19 re decli
1980r 1980 September August May ept 19 se decl
1980 1980 1980


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.................. +3.4 +0.7 +2.9 +2.3 +1.2 -2.5 +0.5 +1.6 -1.2
Durable goods industries.................... +5.8 -0.7 +5.1 +3.3 +1.2 -4.3 +0.2 +1.9 -1.9
Nondurable goods industries.................... +1. +2.0 +0.9 +1.3 +1.2 -0.8 +0.7 +1.6 -0.7

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries .................. +0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.0 +1.2 +0.8 +0.7 -0.3

New orders:
All manufacturing industries.................. +4.8 -0.4 +6.1 +3.5 +1.8 -3.5 +0.3 +1.9 -1.2
Durable goods industries.................... +9.0 -3.5 +11.7 +5.5 +2.1 -6.0 +0.0 +2.8 -2.0
Nondurable goods industries................. +0.8 +2.8 +1.0 +1.6 +1.5 -0.9 +0.7 +1.5 -0.7

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries...................... +0.7 -0.2 +0.6 +0.4 -0.2 -0.0 +0.4 +1.2 -0.9












Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Invens r o Unfilled orders--shipments ratio'
Inventories--shipments ratio (months' backlog)
(months' backlog)
Industry group
September August July June September August July June
1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980


All manufacturing industries........................... 1.61 1.66 1.68 1.72 3.57 3.75 3.71 3.82

Durable goods industries.................................... 2.11 2.24 2.23 2.32 4.26 4.51 4.48 4.60
Stone, clay, and glass products............................ 1.38 1.52 1.50 1.62 0.66 0.75 0.74 0.79
Primary metals............................................ 1.78 1.94 2.03 2.13 2.45 2.50 2.50 2.57
Fabricated metals......................................... 2.00 2.16 2.21 2.31 3.15 3.46 3.55 3.67
Machinery, except electrical.............................. 2.74 2.89 2.82 2.82 4.25 4.51 4.43 4.44
Electrical machinery...................................... 2.13 2.14 2.19 2.21 3.72 3.79 3.82 3.92
Transportation equipment.................................. 2.22 2.34 2.24 2.52 12.55 13.87 12.94 14.02
Instruments and related products.......................... 2.35 2.38 2.50 2.51 1.76 1.76 1.85 1.88

Nondurable goods industries.................................. 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.15 0.70 0.72 0.68 0.71
Food and kindred products.................................. 1.00 0.94 1.00 0.98 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products.......................................... 3.27 3.00 3.00 3.49 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products...................................... 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.54 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products.................................. 1.24 1.30 1.27 1.32 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products.............................. 1.36 1.41 1.47 1.55 (X) (x) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products................................ 0.63 0.62 0.64 0.59 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c......................... 1.19 1.20 1.32 1.41 (X) (X) (X) (X)

(NA) Not available. PPreliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.
'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels, and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.







The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.

DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976. In the absence of benchmark data for un-
filled orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the
ratio of unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the
M3. These levels were reset as of December 1973. Historical
data, 1967-1978, 'ncludir-,1 the seasonally adjusted series, re-
flecting seasonal factors based on data through December 1978,
are published in the M3-1.8 report issued in August 1979.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the ,inr.,ing errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of .unfi.',.-d orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in derlel,:rnq
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.




EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the inout of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4 digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly -reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.








CURRENT

CONSTRUCTION

REPORTS


CONSTRUCTION accounts
for approximately 11 percent
of the gross national product!
To assist industry representatives,
research specialists, market analysts,
and government officials interested
in this vital segment of the Nation's
economy, the Bureau of the Census
issues monthly, quarterly, and
annual reports on the value of new
construction put in place, building
permits, housing starts, housing
completions, housing sales,
alterations and repairs and
demolition of residential structures.
Current Construction Reports include:
C20 Housing Starts


C21 New Residential Construction in
Selected Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas
C22 Housing Completions
C25 New One-Family Houses Sold
and for Sale
C27 Price Index of New One-Family
Houses Sold
C30 Value of New Construction Put
in Place
C40 Housing Authorized by Building
Permits and Public Contracts
C45 Permits Issued for Demolition
of Residential Structures in
Selected Cities
C50 Expenditures on Residential
Additions, Alterations,
Maintenance and Repairs, and
Replacements


U.S. Department of Commerce BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


U.S. Department of Commerce








directory of



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a guide to sources

1976







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Spanning the period 1966-1976, the guide covers 350
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REFERENCE BY SPECIFIC TABLE NUMBER, agency
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FACTS YOU NEED TO GET UNPUBLISHED DATA (not
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And a DETAILED INDEX locating 2,300 subjects


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