Current industrial reports

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Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00234

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text

c ASi )


U.S. Department of Commi
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders


AUGUST 1980
M3-1(80)-8
FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION, 3:00 P.M. October 1, 1980


(All figures n x below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods in August increased
$0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $147.4 billion the Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. An increase
in orders for nondurable goods more than offset a $1.1 billion
or 1.5 percent decline in durable goods orders.
The decline in durable goods orders, which followed a large
increase in July of 11.3 percent, was caused mostly by the
aircraft industries. New orders for aircraft and parts dropped
$2.4 billion or 41 percent to $3.3 billion, after an 18 percent
increase last month. Excluding the aircraft industries, durable
goods orders showed an increase of 1.8 percent.
The most significant increases in durable goods new orders
came from the electrical machinery and steel industries. Orders
for electrical machinery were up $1.2 billion or 12.6 percent to
$10.9 billion, while new orders reported by steel producers in-
creased $1.0 billion or 20 percent to $5.7 billion. This is the
third consecutive month a significant increase has been reported
in steel orders.
In the capital goods industries, new orders for nondefense
capital goods declined $1.3 billion or 6.0 percent to $20.3
billion. A decrease in commercial aircraft and parts orders ac-
counted for over two-thirds of the decline. Excluding aircraft,
orders for nondefense capital goods were down 0.6 percent,
with increases in electrical machinery orders offsetting declines
in the nonelectrical machinery category. New orders for defense
capital goods were down $0.4 billion or 8.2 percent to $4.0
billion. Here also a decline in the aircraft industry more than
offset increases in the other defense categories.
Shipments of manufactured goods in August increased $1.8
billion or 1.2 percent to $147.2 billion. This followed a $3.9
billion or 2.7 percent increase in July. In the durable goods
industries shipments increased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to
$72.8 billion. Primary metal shipments totaled $10.7 billion,
for a $0.5 billion or 4.7 percent increase; electrical and non-
electrical machinery shipments totaled $24.4 billion for a $0.4
million or 1.8 percent increase.
In the transportation equipment industries all categories
except shipbuilding had declines in shipments. Aircraft and
parts shipments were down $0.3 billion or 6.4 percent to $4.0
billion, while motor vehicle and parts shipments' were down
$0.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $8.5 billion.

Motor vehicle assembly plants close down for retooling, generally
during July, August, and September, for the forthcoming model year.


Shipments by the household durable goods industries de-
clined $0.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $4.7 billion. An increase
in July shipments of household durable goods of 5.1 percent
followed 4 consecutive months of decline.
Shipments by the nondurable goods industries increased
$1.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $74.4 billion. The foods category
was up $0.9 billion or 4.4 percent; petroleum, up $0.5 billion
or 3.3 percent; chemicals, up $0.4 billion or 3.4 percent; and
rubber and plastics products, up $0.2 billion or 4.3 percent.
All other nondurable categories had declines.
The value of manufacturers' orders backlogs in August
stood at $282.6 billion, virtually unchanged from July. Since
December 1979 when the backlog level was at $279.7 billion,
its value has increased only 0.1 percent per month as compared
to the average monthly increase for all of 1979 of 1.3 percent.
Industries reporting significant increases in backlog in August
were steel, up $1.0 billion or 6.9 percent; electrical machinery,
up $0.5 billion or 1.4 percent; and shipbuilding and military
up $0.4 billion or 3.6 percent. Virtually all other industries
reported declines.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories declined
$0.5 billion or 0.2 percent in August to $243.6 billion. This
is the first monthly decline reported since the 0.2 percent
decline recorded in December 1975. The August inventory de-
cline resulted from a billion dollar drop in the value of non-
durable goods inventories. All nondurable goods categories
except foods reported decreases. The value of inventories of
durable goods manufacturers increased $0.5 billion or 0.3
percent in August. Excluding the aircraft industries inventories
of durable goods manufacturers also had a slight decline.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier this month. The present report is
based on more complete reporting, but is still considered pre-
liminary. Final figures will appear in the full report scheduled
for release on October 31. The advance report on durable goods
for September is scheduled for release on October 22.

Year-to-year variations in both the timing and duration of the model
changeover period are sufficiently great that the normal seasonal adjust-
ment procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during the
period and may introduce substantial erratic movement. To compensate
for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted monthly average for the
quarter is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3 months.
These seasonally adjusted data are recompiled each month as additional
information is received. The seasonally unadjusted automotive data are
not subject to any special estimating procedure.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.





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Table 6. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS--MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG-TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change Average,


Item and industry group July- June- May-
Aug. July June May- Feb- Average Average
1980 Nov. 1979- Aug, 1979- rise decline
19801980 1980 Feb 1980 Aug. 1980
1980 1980


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries ................. +1.2 +2.7 0.0 +1.3 -2.5 +1.9 +0.3 + -1.2
Durable goods industries..... ... ........ +0.7 +4.7 -0.6 +1.6 -4.3 +2.4 -0.2 +1.9 -19
Nondurable goods industries.......... ...... +1.8 +0.9 +0.6 +1.1 -0.8 +1.5 +0.7 +1.6 -0.I

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries ........ -0.2 +0.2 0.0 +0.0 +1.2 +1.3 +0.9 +0.7 -

New orders:
All manufacturing industries ................. +0.3 +b.0 -0.2 +2.0 -3.5 +1.7 +0.2 +1.9 -I.2
Durable goods industries.. .............. -1.5 +11.3 -1.3 +2.7 -6.0 +2.2 -0.2 +2.8 -2.0
Nondurable goods industries ... ..... .. .... +2.2 +1.0 +0.7 +1.3 -0.9 -1.2 +07 1.5 -0 7

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries ...... .. ...... 0.0 +0.6 -1.0 -0.1 -0.0 +1.0 -0.4 -1.2 -0.9












Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNTILLED ORDERS TO SHIPiMNTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

I nfilled orders--shipnents rati,'
Inventories--shipments ratio Unfilled orders-hipments ratio'
(months' backlog)
Industry group
August July June May August July June May
1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980


.11 ,...,r..,, ,,...,. I.1 Cu-[rl I i' .

Durable goods industries................................... 2.22 2.23 2.32 2.31 4.45 4.48 4.60 .461
Stone, clay, and glass products............. .......... 1.52 1.50 1.62 1.60 0. 074 0.7 0.79 0.83
Primary metals .. ................................ ........ 1.92 2.03 2.13 2.04 2.47 2.50 2.57 2.53
Fabricated metals............ ....... .... .. ... ....... 2.19 2.21 2.31 2.35 3.50 3.55 3.67 3.71
Machinery, except electrical ........ .......... .. ... 2.80 2.82 2.82 2.89 4.35 4.43 4.44 4.61
Electrical machinery. .... ........ ........ .... .. .. 2.12 2.19 2.21 2.18 3.76 3.82 3.92 3.86
Transportation equipment ..................... .. .. ..... 2.34 2.24 2.52 2.42 13.47 12.94 14.02 13.71
Instruments and related products ....................... 2.38 2.50 2.51 2.50 1.7 1.85 1.88 1.92

Nondurable goods industries ......... ... .... .. .... 1.11 1.14 1.15 1.15 0.71 0.68 0 71 0.74
Food and kindred products ...................... ..... 0.97 1.00 0.98 1.00 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products............... ................. .... 3 00 3.00 3.49 3.10 (X) (N) (X) (X)
Textile mill products ....... ..... .. ...... .. ..... 1 47 1.48 1.54 1.5. (NA) (Xl) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products. ...... ......... ..... .. 1.30 1.27 1.32 1.32 (NA) (NA) N(A) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products .. ..... ..... .. ...... 1.39 1.47 1.55 1.53 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products ..... .......... .......... 0.60 0.64 0.59 0.57 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c .............. ....... 1.19 1.32 1.41 1.51 (X) (X) (X) (X)


(NA) Not available,


PPreliminary. (X Not applicable.


'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and
related products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.








The ..... .... s a description of the survey anil define tions
used. These are provided to da ify the meaning of the teams'
involved and do not represent any r vis ons from those
definitions previous employed,

DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly f guess that are comarab to th
annual totals published each year i the Annua Survey of
Manufactur-s (lS '.1 The ASM s a prohablty samp of
approximately 70,000 manufact n t estli shments drawn
from the most recent 5-y ar census on iverse oi about 312,000
establishments In thi ASM. each manufacturing stab li shrnent
provides data on implo)ment paii shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and nventories as well as other
selected teams. Unt -, ~ the ASM did not r nfor m-
ation on unf ed orders or new oders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
mnanufactur ng industries the Sta ndard I industri a C ass f
cation i,:..1 system and area data fo industry groups
The estimates presented n the M3 report ar sed on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting unis, cons sting
of virtually all manufacture ng compares with 1 000 or more
employees and add tional med u -sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage iM individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medum- or companies
comprises al operations of the company. Many of the laer
diversified companies i e separate divsona reports for the
operations in different industries, although ths dvsional
report is not followed by a arge companies
Each reporting unt in the month panel s classIid into
one of 79 industry class f cat ons for tabulat on Many of the
reporting units include rixed industry act ty even wthi the
broad industry catgores of the month y survey. H wever, the
survey estimatnig procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reportin ts cassifed i each industry
category effectively represent the nonthto-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries wi ch make up the
category. This ratio estmating procedure s used fo a teams
,.r. in the survey except for new orders w'ch is d scussed
separately below.
The M3 seri s 5s pei dicaly benchmarked to th' ASM for
shipments and inventories The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976 In the absence of benchmark data for un-
filled orders, levels weri sit n August 1962 based u3on the
ratio of unfilled orders to sales for comparnes reeportin in the
M3 These evels were reset as of December 1973 Hstor ca
data, 1967- 1978, the s a ra ustt d seres re
flect ng season factors basd or data through Decr' r 1978
are published in the M3 1 8 report ss .id r Auqust 1979
The M3 data are subt t to some lIm.tatons r
resulting from the re ely smal s sample used ti dei op the,
estimates andl the use of dvs onal and cop y l ports to
extrapolate estabishment base dir a. Pics mesurnmn't of
these lm itato s bised in st imat's of t'< sim li I irrrs i s
iot avamabe. In addlit on >h; c of ''.13 su voy
data, the est nnt e eels 05 u fil ei a sut i i Ct ti
further i tat ons due s e isumpt ai n dev i ing
these I s, te defir i r IdI am isD r s


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
paes iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
o fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.





EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
aie received or receivable net .:,,, values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM.
contain d(i ,.. at the all manufacturing and industry 1,,aup
eve s since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4 digit
SIC qroup level. Since the M3- 1 industry categories t, ircaii, are
i oup ngs of industries, this duplication is n'i, in' for v'l the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
nd the var ous market groups. The s gnificance of the dupil,
catin thin the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4 -digt industry composition of these groups. It is most
Snounced n a few highly integrated industry areas such as
S0imary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Snce most monthly reports are for the entire company or
ma, divsons rathe than establishments, the companies are
Sgquested to report net sales, i.e., total company i.11i'-.s after
idsio nts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
r)p ts ar requestedri to treat transfers from the division of the
ompny to another as if they were net sales to outside
customs Alt ou this defni tion of shipments in the
monthly rp' ts iffers from that used in the annual riliish
mciit ri 'p is it s assumed that the month-to month changes in
comply siles n the industry are representative of the
mont-to month shipments of the establishments in the indus-








Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


13
change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.










COUNTY


BUSINESS


PATTERNS


1978



Now Available

1978 Data on Employment,
Payrolls, & Establishments


County Business Patterns presents inter-
censal data on employment, number and
employment size of establishments, and
payrolls by 2-, 3.. and 4-digit levels of the
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
for States and counties. This annual series
includes a separate paperbound report
for the United States. each State and the
District of Columbia

The individual State reports present for
the State, number of establishments, em
ployment, and payroll data by employ.
ment-size class to the 4-digit SIC level
Also included, by major industry group,
are data on the number of establishments
with 1,000 or more employees, by
employment-size class.

The U.S. Summary includes data by
detailed industry (4-digit SIC) level for
the United Slates and by major group
(2-digit SIC) for each State. For the
U.S., number of establishments, employ
ment, and payroll data are also provided
by employment-size class to the 4-digit
SIC level. Also included, by major in
dustry group, are data on the number of


establishments. employees. and payroll
of administrative and auxiliary establish
ments
The Standard Metropolitan Statistical
Area (SMSA) includes the same data
items as the State reports by major group
(2-digit SIC) for each SMSA For the
New England States data are published
by the New England Counrv Metro
politan Area (NJECMA)
CBP is a standard reference source of
small area data for business persons.
market researchers, and industrial and
civic planners
CBP data are especially, useful for
Analyzing market potentials
Determining location and size of sales
territories
Establishing sales quotas and advertising
budgets
Locating production, marketing, and
service facilities
CBP data are shown in detail for the
following broad industry categories.
Agricultural services, forestry, and
fisheries


Mining
Contract construction
Manufacturing
Transportation and other public utilities
Who,'; sal, I rdde
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Services


Data in Other Formats
Published CBP data, by county and by
industry, will be available at cost, on
computer tapes Inquiries should be
addressed to Chief, Data User Services
Division, Bureau of the Census, Wash-
ington, D C 20233.
The reports described in this announce-
ment are also available on microfiche. For
further information, contact Subscriber
Services Section (Publications). Bureau
of the Census. Washington, D.C 20233
For a descriptive order form, listing all
available titles and prices, fill in the
request below, and mail to the address
shown.


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of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233
Official Business
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