Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00233

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text
~ /1 -,


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

Manufacturers' Shipments,

)) Inventories, and Orders


JULY 1980
M3-1(80)-7
FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 2:30 P.M. Tuesday, September 2, 1980

below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods in July increased $7.8
billion or 5.7 percent to $146.4 billion the Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the first
monthly increase in orders since January and the largest one
month percentage increase since the 6.8 percent rise in Decem-


transportation equipment components of the series. New orders
for defense capital goods increased $0.9 billion or 25 percent
to $4.4 billion following a 35 percent decline in June. Prior to
June, new orders for defense capital goods had been increasing
since January, peaking at $5.3 billion in May.


her 1970. Although the July increase in orders was substantial, New orders in the nondurable goods industries increased
the volume of orders for the month was below the January high $1.0 billion or 1.4 percent to $73.1 billion. All major cate-
of $155.6 billion. gories showed increases except the apparel and petroleum in-
New orders reported by durable goods manufacturers in- dustries, both of which reflected shipments declines.
creased in July $6.8 billion or 10.3 percent to $73.3 billion, The value of shipments of manufactured products increased
revised upward from the 8.4 percent reported earlier. All major in July $3.9 billion or 2.7 percent to $145.4 billion, following
industry categories except electrical machinery showed in- 4 consecutive monthly declines. Within the durable goods
creases. In the transportation equipment category, new orders industries, shipments of transportation equipment were up
were up $3.5 billion or 28 percent to $16.2 billion. About half $1.7 billion or 13.5 percent to $14.7 billion. Over three fourths
of the increase in transportation orders was attributed to ship- of the increase was accounted for by the motor vehicle industry
mentsi for the motor vehicle industry. For the motor vehicle which is now into its annual model changeover period.' The
assembly portion of that industry, new orders are considered seasonally adjusted increase of 20 percent or $1.5 billion was
equal to shipments made during the month. The aircraft in- based on June shipments of $7.2 billion, the lowest one month
dustry reported orders for the month of $5.7 billion, a 17.9 volume of deliveries since the $7.2 billion in October 1976. The
percent increase over June. value of shipments in June 1979 going into the model change-
Within the primary metals category, steel producers re- over period was $10.5 billion. Excluding the motor vehicle
ported their second consecutive large increase in orders. After industry, shipments for transportation equipment increased
sharp declines in March of 12.4 percent, April of 20.1 percent 5.0 percent.
and May of 18.6 percent, steel orders in June rose 16.1 percent An increase in shipments of $0.5 billion by the primary
and July 22.5 percent. The value of steel orders for July was metals industries was mostly attributable to nonferrous pro-
$4.8 billion as compared to the high of $7.3 billion recorded ducers who reported an increase of $0.4 billion or 8.7 percent
in January 1979. Nonferrous metals producers also had a large to $5.0 billion. The largest decrease in durable goods shipments
increase in orders. After 5 months of declines orders were up occurred in the nonelectrical machinery category which de-
$0.9 billion or 21.6 percent to $5.2 billion, lined $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $13.5 billion. The average
In the capital goods industries new orders for nondefense value of monthly shipments for the first 6 months of this year
capital goods increased $0.9 billion or 4.4 percent to $20.8 for this category was $13.8 billion.
billion. Although the specific nondefense categories showed a The value of shipments by nondurable goods industries
mixed pattern of changes, the largest increases occurred in the increased $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $73.5 billion, the largest
increase since a 2.8 percent rate in January. Most of the major
nondurable goods industries had more significant increases but
SMotor vehicle assembly plants close down for retooling, generally
during July, August, and September, for the forthcoming model year. a near billion dollar decline in deliveries by petroleum refiners
Year-to-year variations in both the timing and duration of the model offset much of the other increases. Excluding the petroleum
changeover period are sufficiently great that the normal seasonal ad- industry nondurable goods shipments rose 3.3 percent.
justment procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during
the period and may introduce substantial erratic movement. To com- The unfilled orders levels of manufacturers increased $1.0
pensate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted monthly average for billion or 0.4 percent to $282.0 billion, following 3 consecutive
the quarter is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3 monthly declines. Increases of $1.5 billion or 1.3 percent in the
months. These seasonally adjusted data are recompiled each month as
additional information is received. The seasonally unadjusted automotive transportation equipment category and $0.5 billion or 1.9
data are not subject to any special estimating procedure. percent in primary metals were partially offset by declines in
Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district
office. Postage stamsp not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or
by a draft on a U.S. bank. Price 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.







both the electrical and nonelectrical machinery orders backlogs.
The orders backlog for the nonelectrical category declined $0.2
billion or 0.3 percent and for the electrical category $0.3 billion
or 0.7 percent.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories in July in-
creased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $244.5 billion. After in-
creases during the first four months of 1979 averaging more
than 1.5 percent per month, the value of inventories has gone
up less than 0.5 percent per month since April. For the durable
goods industries the pattern of change was mixed. For the
nondurable goods category most industries reported declines
in inventories. Significant increases in the petroleum industry


of $0.3 billion or 3.7 percent and the foods industry of $0.5
billion or 2.3 percent more than offset those declines.
The inventory to shipments ratio for July dropped to 1.68,
the first decline in the ratio since January.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for August
is scheduled for release on September 23, 1980, and the full
report is scheduled for release on October 1, 1980.






























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Table 6. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS--MONTH-TO-MDNTH AND LONG-TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change Average, 1975-1979

3 months 12 months
Item and industry group June- May- Apr.- Averae Average
July June May April- Jan.- Oct. 1979- July 1979- rise decline
1980 1980 1980 July April Jan. 1980 July 1980
1980 1980


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.................. +2.7 0.0 -1.4 +0.4 -1.9 +1.5 +0.2 +1.6 -1.2
Durable goods industries.................... +4.2 -0.6 -3.8 -0.1 -2.5 +1.1 -0.2 +1.9 -1.9
Nondurable goods Industries................. +1.3 +0.6 +1.0 +1.0 -1.3 +1.9 +0.6 +1.6 -0.7

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries.................. +0.4 0.0 +0.4 +0.3 +1.5 +1.3 +1.0 +0.7 -0.3

New orders:
All manufacturing industries................... +5.7 -0.2 -3.1 +0.7 -2.7 +2.0 +0.2 +1.9 -1.2
Durable goods industries..................... +10.3 -1.3 -7.0 +0.4 -3.8 +2.1 -0.1 +2.8 -2.0
Nondurable goods industries................. +1.4 +0.7 +1.0 +1.0 -1.5 +1.9 +0.6 +1.5 -0.7

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries..................... +U.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 +0.5 +1.1 +0.4 +1.2 -0.9












Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventories-shipments ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratio1
(months' backlog)
Industry group
July June May April July June May April
1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980

All manufacturing industries.......................... 1.68 1.72 1.72 1.69 3.72 3.82 3.83 3.75

Durable goods industries.................................... 2.24 2.32 2.31 2.21 4.52 4.60 4.61 4.50
Stone, clay, and glass products............................ 1.49 1.62 1.60 1.54 0.73 0.79 0.83 0.81
Primary metals............................................ 2.03 2.13 2.04 1.83 2.49 2.57 2.53 2.46
Fabricated metals......................................... 2.24 2.31 2.35 2.16 3.58 3.67 3.71 3.42
Machinery, except electrical............................... 2.92 2.82 2.89 2.89 4.54 4.44 4.61 4.69
Electrical machinery....................................... 2.20 2.21 2.18 2.23 3.85 3.92 3.86 3.93
Transportation equipment................................... 2.25 2.52 2.42 2.25 13.27 14.02 13.71 13.05
Instruments and related products........................... 2.46 2.51 2.50 2.54 1.82 1.88 1.92 1.95

Nondurable goods industries................................ 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16 0.66 0.71 0.74 0.76
Food and kindred products ................................. 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.06 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products......................................... 2.99 3.49 3.10 2.89 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products..................................... 1.48 1.54 1.54 1.47 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products.............. ..................... 1.25 1.32 1.32 1.27 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products.............................. 1.49 1.55 1.53 1.48 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products..................... ........ 0.66 0.59 0.57 0.59 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c....................... 1.28 1.41 1.51 1.45 (X) (X) (X) (X)


(NA) Not available.


PPreliminary.


Revised. IX) Not applicable.


'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.









The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.




DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY


The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976 and issued in the report M3-1.7 released in
March 1978. In the absence of benchmark data for unfilled
orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the ratio of
unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the M3. These
levels were reset as of December 1973 in the M3-1.6 benchmark
publication released in December 1976.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations p,,mari
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.






EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly ,' reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.







Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since d,fterenT methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2 dgiT industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.







U.S. Department
of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08589 4920

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