Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00224

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text
,. 15 Y M 3 -I (77/1 ~
CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS


o, f ^ Manufacturers' Shipments,

1/ i;Z Inventories, and Orders

*r" O P AUGUST 1979
U.S. Department of C M31 (79)-8
BUREAU OF THE CENS For Release 4:00 P.M. Wednesday, October 3, 1979


s Arlin text below are
New orders for manufactured products rose $2.8 billion or
2.0 percent in August to $142.7 billion the Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The August level,
which follows a 1.6 percent decline for July, is 4.0 percent be-
low the peak of $148.6 billion in new orders recorded in March.
New orders for manufacturers' durable goods were up $2.1
billion or 2.9 percent to $74.6 billion, with the machinery and
transportation equipment industries being the main contribu-
tors to the rise. The electrical and nonelectrical machinery cate-
gories each reported increases of $0.8 billion in new orders,
while substantial orders for the aircraft industry lifted trans-
portation equipment new orders by $0.7"billion or 4.3 percent.
The upward revision in durable goods new orders from the 0.8
percent increase reported earlier for August primarily results
from more complete information received on new orders for
aircraft parts. :
The steel industry reported another large decline in new
orders, down $0.6 billion or 11.9 percent to $4.5 billion. With
the exception of a small increase in June, new orders have been
declining since January, when a high of $7.3 billion was re-
ported. The August orders level is the lowest recorded since
October 1977, when the value was $4.4 billion. In contrast,
new orders for the nonferrous primary metals industries rose
$0.4 billion or 8.8 percent to $5.1 billion.
New orders for the nondefense capital goods industries rose
$1.2 billion or 6.1 percent to $21.5 billion, the largest increase
for that series since the 6.8 percent February increase. Defense
capital goods orders were also up substantially, increasing
$0.7 billion or 31 percent to $3.0 billion.
Shipments of manufactured products rose $1.3 billion or 1.0
percent to $142.4 billion. Most durable goods industries re-
ported increases in shipments as a $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent
rise to $74.5 billion was recorded. The largest increase was re-
ported by the transportation equipment industries, up $0.5
billion or 3.4 percent to $16.1 billion. All transportation in-
dustries contributed to the increase except motor vehicles and
parts, which remain virtually constant during the third quarter
due to the seasonal adjustment technique employed during the
model changeover period.' A decline in steel shipments of
'Motor vehicle assembly plants close down for retooling for the
forthcoming model year, generally during July, August, and September.
Year-to-year variations in both the timing and duration of the model
changeover period are sufficiently great that the normal seasonal ad-
justment procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during
the period and may introduce substantial erratic movement. To com-


in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)
$0.2 billion or 3.6 percent to $5.8 billion more than offset a
3.4 percent increase in shipments of the nonferrous metal
industries.
The value of shipments of nondurable goods manufacturers
increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $67.9 billion, with
shipments of petroleum products increasing $0.9 billion or 8.2
percent. Excluding the petroleum industry, shipments of non-
durable goods declined 1.0 percent.
The August level of unfilled orders of manufacturers re-
mained virtually unchanged from the July level of $268.0
billion. A $1.3 billion drop in steel orders backlog to $18.8
billion was offset by increases in the machinery and trans-
portation equipment industries, although a decline in auto-
motive parts orders was reported.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories continued
to rise, up $2.4 billion or 1.1 percent in August to $219.4
billion. All of the major durable goods categories, except
railroad equipment, reported increases, the largest coming
from nonelectrical machinery, which was up $0.5 billion or
1.5 percent to $35.1 billion. Inventories of nondurable goods
manufacturers also rose, increasing $0.7 billion or 1.0 percent
to $74.3 billion. The petroleum industry, up $0.4 billion or
7.5 percent to $6.0 billion, accounted for a large part of the
increase.
The value of manufacturers' inventories has increased an
average of 1.3 percent monthly through August of this year,
which compares to a 0.9 percent per month increase for the first
8 months of 1978. The inventory to shipments ratio, after fluc-
tuating between 1.44 and 1.56 earlier this year, has held firm at
1.54 for the last 3 months.
The figures for the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear in the report to be published for next month.
Periodically all data are adjusted to benchmark levels as dis-
cussed later in the section Description of Survey. The advance
report on durable goods for September is scheduled for re-
lease on October 23, 1979 and the full report is scheduled
for release on October 31, 1979.
pensate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted quarterly average
is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3 months. These
seasonally adjusted data are recompiled each month as additional in-
formation is received. The seasonally unadjusted automotive data are not
subject to any special estimating procedure.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district
office. Postage stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or
by a draft on a U.S. bank. Price 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.





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T.le 6.--MANl'ACTlERS' SiHIPMENTS, INVENTOiI IS, AND ORDERiS lONTII-TO-MONTH AND LONG TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(BIised on saconally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rts -1978
of change Alragr 1973

tem nDd industry oroup .ec. C No.
Item ,nd industry group Juiv- June- May APr. Mlr.- Feb.- Jan.- 197c. May- Feb.- 1978No
ul. July lune .May Apr. Mar. Feb. Aug. May 1 Avera Adverag
1979 p 1979" 1979r 9 1979 979 199 1979 1979 1979 decline


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries................ +1.0 +15 -2.3 +6.1 -5 9 +4.8 +0.5 +1 1 +0.1 +1.7 +10 + 6 -12
urable goods industries, total.......... +1.3 +1.2 -41 +6.6 -7 6 +4.4 +1.0 +0.4 -0.5 +1 1 +1.0 +1.9 -17
Nondurable goods industries, total........ +0.5 +1 9 -0.4 +5.5 -3.8 +5.3 -0 1 +2.0 +0.7 +2.3 +0.9 +1.5 -0 9
+1.
Total inventories:
All manufacturing industries................ +1.1 +1.2 +1.5 +0.9 +17 +1.0 +1.4 +1.4 +1.3 +1.2 .+1.1 +0 9 -0 3

New orders:
All manufacturing ndustres................ +2.0 -16 -0.9 +3.1 -6.2 +3 2 +1 6 +2.7 -0.2 +0.0 +1.5 +1.9 -18
Durable goods industries, total ..... .. +2.9 -44 -1.6 +1.2 -8.4 +2.2 +2.1 +3.7 -1.0 -1.7 +1 9 +3.4 1.9
Nondurable goods industries, total..... +1.1 +1.5 -0.2 +5.3 -3.5 +4.4 +1.0 +1.4 +0.8 +2.1 +1.0 +16 -0.8
Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries, total...... ..... +6.0 -0.4 +1.2 +0.5 +2 1 +2.6 +3.3 +3 0 +0.1 +17 +27 +14 -0 8












Table 7.--RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Unfilled orders--shipments ratio1
Inventories--shipments ratio U 1(oths' backlog)
(months' backlog)
Industry group
Aug. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Aug. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan.
1979p 1979r 1979r 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979P 1979r 1979r 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979


All manufacturing industries, total......;..... 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.48 1.56 1.44 1.50 1.48 3.57 3.58 3.65 3.53 3.71 3.41 3.51 3.44

Durable goods industries, total................. 1.95 1.95 1.95 1 84 1.94 1.76 1,82 1.81 4.22 4.27 4.34 4.19 4.42 4.01 4.13 4.06

Stone, clay, and glass products.................. 1.36 1.32 1.32 1.29 1 36 1.32 1.39 1.32 0.82 0.83 0-80 0.82 0.87 0.79 0.85 0-85
Primary metals.................................. 1.63 1.58 1.62 1.47 1.79 1.44 1.54 1.63 2.54 2.60 2.78 2.57 3.16 2.55 2.64 2.67
Fabricated metals.............................. 2.06 2.05 2.06 1.95 2.08 1.82 1.97 1.95 3.40 3.38 3 40 3.32 3.55 3.13 3.36 3.36
Machinery, except electrical................... 2.58 2.61 2.64 2.57 2.59 2.49 2.49 2.60 4.63 4.78 4.84 4.77 4.84 4.70 4.63 4.83
Electrical machinery ........................... 2.07 2.09 2.01 2.02 2.06 1 95 1.98 1.98 3.68 3.70 3 64 3.66 3.75 3.51 3.59 3.49
Transportation equipment......................... 1.76 1.80 1.78 1.57 1.64 1.44 1.48 1.36 10.79 11.28 11.55 10.71 10.66 9.77 10.27 8.89
Instruments and related products............;.... 2.48 2.47 2.42 2.43 2.47 2.34 2.37 2.40 1.90 1.88 1.86 1.85 1.91 1.80 1.83 1.90

Nondurable goods industries, total................ 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.07 1.13 1.07 1.12 1.11 0.76 0.72 0.75 0.73 0.76 0 75 0.79 0.76

Food and kindred products....................... 0.99 0.97 0 99 0.95 0 97 0.92 0.94 0.94 (C) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products............................. 3.54 3.16 4 41 3.49 3.71 3.56 3 77 3.47 (x) (x) (X) (X) (X) (I) (X) (x)
Textile mill products. ........................ 1.45 1.40 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.48 1.57 1 48 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products.:..................... 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.12 1.15 1.09 1.12 1.17 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products............ .. 1.31 1.29 1,27 1.29 1.38 1 27 1.36 1.32 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products..................... 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.53 0.49 0.54 0.58 (X) (S) (X) (x) (X) (C ) (C) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c. ............ 1.29 1.33 1.31 1.28 1.34 1.20 1.23 1.26 (X) (1) (X) (X) (N) (X) (X) ()

(NA) Not available. PPreliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.
'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels and drums; farm machinery and
equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco, apparel and related products; building paper,
die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products: and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.









The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.




DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY


The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976 and issued in the report M3-1.7 released in
March 1978. In the absence of benchmark data for unfilled
orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the ratio of
unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the M3. These
levels were reset as of December 1973 in the M3-1.6 benchmark
publication released in December 1976.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.






EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.









Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


13
change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.














This
supplem
to the C
tion Rep
C30, prc
on the v
construct
for 1947

Features
* Mon
* Ann
* Prev
data
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The
supple
contain
statistic
constru
dollars
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C30-74S




ent Value of New
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t1974. Put in Place


thly data for 1958-1974 1947 to
ual data for 1947-1974
iously published 1974
from 1915
ugh 1946












ent r-
s annual
:s, by type of
action, in current
and in 1967 dollars.
*nthly statistics for 1958
1974 are presented unad-
nd seasonally adjusted both
nt dollars and in 1967 dollars.
eluded are a description of the me-
nd estimating procedures used for the
; the procedures for developing seasonal
nent factors and construction cost indexes;
limitations of the data. 196 pp. at $2.55
3-024-01156-5
Copies may be ordered from Assistant Public Printer,
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.





U.S. Department
of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233
Official Business
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