Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00223

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text

CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

Sacturers' Shipments,

ntories, and Orders


06J JULY 1979
M3-1 (79)-7
.( r RRelease 4:00 P.M. Thursday, Auaust 30, 19

(All figures in text be ow are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured products declined $2.8 billion
or 2.0 percent to $139.7 billion, the Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the second con-
secutive month in which new orders have declined, as June
orders were down 0.8 percent. New orders for durable goods
had a more substantial decline, dropping $3.5 billion or 4.6
percent to $72.5 billion. The largest contributors to the decline
were .the transportation equipment industries, down $2.5
billion or 13.8 percent to $15.3 billion; the electrical machinery
industries, down $0.9 billion or 9.4 percent to $8.8 billion; and
the primary metals industries, down $0.5 billion or 4.0 percent
to $11.2 billion. Of the transportation orders decline, sharp
drops in the aircraft and motor vehicle industries were only
partially offset by large increases in the shipbuilding and rail-
road equipment industries. Virtually all of the electrical ma-
chinery industries declined, except for electronic components.
New orders for nondefense capital goods declined $1.4
billion or 6i6 percent to. $20.4 billion, with aircraft and parts
accounting for most of the drop. Without commercial aircraft
and parts orders, nondefense new orders were down 0.7 per-
cent. Defense new orders also declined, down $0.3 billion or
10.3 percent to $2.2 billion.
Shipments of manufactured products in July increased $1.5
billion or 1.1 percent to $140.4 billion. The small net increase
in durable goods shipments of 0.7 percent or $0.5 billion, re-
sulted from mixed trends in the detailed industries. The largest
increase occurred in the primary metals industries, where ship-
ments rose $0.7 billion or 5.8 percent to $12.2 billion. A de-
cline in transportation equipment shipments of $0.3 billion or
1.7 percent to $15.2 billion followed a 10.5 percent decline in
June shipments. A $0.7 billion drop in motor vehicle ship-
ments1 was only partially offset by increases in most of the
other components of the transportation industry.

1 It should be noted that motor vehicle assembly plants close down
for retooling, generally during July, August, and September, for the
forthcoming model year. Year-to-year variations in both the timing and
duration of the model changeover period are sufficiently great that the
normal seasonal adjustment procedures do not adequately identify the
seasonality during the period and may introduce substantial erratic
movement. To compensate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted
quarterly average is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the
3 months. These seasonally adjusted data are recompiled each month as
additional information is received. The seasonally unadjusted automotive
data are not subject to any special estimating procedure.


Shipments of nondurable goods increased $0.9 billion or 1.4
percent to $67.3 billion. Most of the nondurable goods indus-
tries contributed to the rise, with the tobacco industry up 36
percent. This industry has been very volatile for the last few
months due to staggered price increases by individual companies.
Unfilled orders for manufactured goods declined $0.8 bil-
lion or 0.3 percent to $268.5 billion as shipments exceeded
new orders received during the month. This is the first decline
in backlog since July 1977 when a drop of 0.3 percent was
reported. Although most industries reported little change in
their unfilled orders levels, the backlog of steel orders declined
in July $0.9 billion or 4.4 percent to $20.0 billion.

The book value of total manufacturers' inventories in July
increased $2.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $217.1 billion. Inven-
tories of durable goods manufacturers' were up $1.4 billion or
1.0 percent to $143.1 billion, while nondurable goods inventor-
ies increased $1.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $73.9 billion.
All of the durable goods industries except fabricated metal
products, reported increases. The transportation equipment in-
dutries showed the most. significant increase, rising $0.5 billion
or 1.9 percent to $27.9 billion. Inventories of both electrical
and nonelectrical machinery manufacturers increased, up a total
of $0.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $53.5 billion. The inventory
increase for nondurable goods manufacturers reflected increases
in nearly all industry categories, with the tobacco industry
reporting the only decline.
Finished goods inventories of manufacturers for July in-
creased 1.7 percent over June, as compared to an average
monthly increase for the second quarter of 1979 of 1.3 percent.
Raw material inventories were up 1.0 percent and work in
process inventories 1.2 percent, as compared to average monthly
increases for the second quarter of 0.9 percent and 2.0 percent,
respectively.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for August
is scheduled for release on September 25, 1979 and the full
report is scheduled for release on October 3, 1979.


C1_o, I ': 0, 5 ,1( 1 / -l I


7 1



U.S. Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district
office. Postage stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or
by a draft on a U.S. bank. Price 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.
























































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Table 6.-MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change Average, 1973-1978

Dec. 3 months 12 months
Item and industry group June May- Apr.- Mar.- Feb.- Jan.- 1978- Average Average
July J9. May Apr. Mar Feb. Jan. Apr.-July Jan.-Apr. Oct. 1978- July 1978- rise decline
1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 Jan. 1979 July 1979



Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.......... ... +1.1 -2.3 +6.1 -5 9 +4.8 +0 5 +1.1 +1.6 -0.2 +1.2 +1.2 +1.6 -1.2
Durable goods industries, total........ +0.7 -4.1 +6.6 -7.6 +4.4 +1.0 +0.4 +1.1 -0.7 +1.3 +1.0 +1.9 -1.7
Nondurable goods industries, total..... +1.4 -0.4 +5.5 -3.8 +5.3 -0.1 +2.0 +2.2 +0.5 +1.1 +1.3 +1.5 -0.9

Total inventories:
All manufacturing industries............. +1.3 +1.5 +0.9 +1.7 +1.0 +1.4 +1.4 +1.2 +1.4 +1.1 +1.1 +0.9 -0.3

New orders:
All manufacturing industries.......... ... -2.0 -0.9 +3.1 -6.2 +3.2 +1.6 +2.7 +0.1 -0.5 +1.2 +1.0 +1,9 -1.8
Durable goods industries, total....... -4.6 -1.5 +1.2 -8.4 +2.2 +2.1 +3.7 -1.6 -1.4 +1.4 +0.9 +3.4 -1.9
Nondurable goods industries, total..... +1.0 -0.2 +5.3 -3.5 +4.4 +1.0 +1.4 +2.0 +0.6 +1.0 +1.2 +1.6 -0.8

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries, total........ -0.2 +1.3 +0.5 +2.1 +2.6 +3.3 +3.0 +0.5 +2.7 +2.5 +1.9 +1.4 -0.8











Table 7.--RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventories- pments ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratio'
Inventorise--shspments ratio bauklog)
(months' backlog)
Industry group
July Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. July Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan.
1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979


All manufacturing industries, total.......... 1.55 1,54 1.48 1.56 1.44 1.50 1.48 3.58 3.65 3.53 3.71 3.41 3.51 3.44

Durable goods industries, total.................. 1.96 1.95 1.84 1.94 1.76 1.82 1.81 4.28 4.35 4.19 4.42 4.01 4.13 4.06
Stone, clay, and glass products................ 1.36 1.32 1.29 1.36 1.32 1.39 1.32 0.84 0.80 0.82 0.87 0.79 0.85 0.85
Primary metals..... ... ..................... 1.54 1.62 1.47 1.79 1.44 1.54 1.63 2.54 2.78 2.57 3.16 2.55 2.64 2.67
Fabricated metals............................. 2.24 2.06 1.95 2.08 1.82 1.97 1.95 3.41 3.40 3.32 3.55 3.13 3.36 3.36
Machinery, except electrical................... 2.63 2.64 2.57 2.59 2.49 2.49 2.60 4.86 4.84 4.77 4.84 4.70 4.63 4.83
Electrical machinery........................... 2.10 2.01 2.02 2.06 1.95 1.98 1.98 3.73 3.64 3.66 3.75 3.51 3.59 3.49
Transprotation equipment..................... 1.84 1.78 1.57 1.64 1.44 1.48 1.36 11.37 11.57 10.71 10.66 9.77 10.27 8.89
Instruments and related products............... 2.48 2.42 2.43 2.47 2.34 2.37 2.40 1.87 1.86 1.85 1.91 1.80 1.83 1.90

Nondurable goods industries, total............... 1.10 1.10 1.07 1.13 1.07 1.12 1.11 0.71 0.75 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.79 0.76
Food and kindred products..................... 1.00 0.99 0.95 0.97 0.92 0.94 0.94 (X) (X) (X ) () ( X X) (X)
Tobacco products............................... 3.15 4.41 3.49 3.71 3.56 3.77 3.47 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products......................... 1.35 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.48 1.57 1.48 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products..................... 1.13 1.16 1.12 1.15 1.09 1.12 1.17 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products.................. 1.29 1.27 1.29 1.38 1.27 1.36 1.32 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products ................. 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.53 0.49 0.54 0.58 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c............ 1.31 1.31 1.28 1.34 1.20 1.23 1.26 (X) (X) (X) (x) (X) (X) (X)

(NA) Not available. Preliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.
'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels and drums; farm machinery and equipment; motor
vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals;
petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.







The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.




DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY


The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976 and issued in the report M3-1.7 released in
March 1978. In the absence of benchmark data for unfilled
orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the ratio of
unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the M3. These
levels were reset as of December 1973 in the M3-1.6 benchmark
publication released in December 1976.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily aply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.






EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.







Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.









COUNTY


BUSINESS


PATTERNS


1977



Now Available

1977 Data on Employment,

Payrolls, & Establishments


County Business Patterns presents inter-
censal data on employment, number and
employment size of establishments, and
payrolls by 2-, 3-, and 4-digit levels of the
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
for States and counties. This annual series
includes a separate paperbound report
for the United States, each State, and the
District of Columbia.

The individual State reports present for
the State, number of establishments, em.
ployment, and payroll data by employ
ment-size class to the 4-digit SIC level
Also included, by major industry group,
are data on the number of establishments
with 1,000 or more employees, by
employment size class.

The U.S. Summary includes data by
detailed industry (4-digit SIC) level for
the United States and by major group
(2-digit SIC) for each State. For the
U.S., number of establishments, employ.
ment, and payroll data are also provided
by employment-size class to the 4-digit
SIC level. Also included, by major in.
dustry group, are data on the number of


establishments, employees, and payroll
of administrative and auxiliary establish-
ments.
The Standard Metropolitan Statistical
Area (SMSA) includes the same data
items as the State reports by major group
(2-digit SIC) for each SMSA. For the
New England States, data are published
by the New England CountV Metro-
politan Area (NECMA).
CBP is a standard reference source of
small area data for business persons,
market researchers, and industrial and
civic planners.
CBP data are especially useful for.
Analyzing market potentials
Determining location and size of sales
territories
Establishing sales quotas and advertising
budgets
Locating production, marketing, and
service facilities.
CBP data are shown in detail for the
following broad industry categories-
Agricultural services, forestry, and
fisheries


Mining
Contract construction
Manufacturing
Transportation and other public utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Services


Data in Other Formats

Published CBP data, by county and by
industry, will be available at cost, on
computer tapes. Inquiries should be
addressed to Chief, Data User Services
Division, Bureau of the Census, Wash-
ington, D.C. 20233.
The reports described in this announce-
ment are also available on microfiche. For
further information, contact: Subscriber
Services Section 'Publications), Bureau
of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233
For a descriptive order form, listing all
available titles and prices, fill in the
request below, and mail to the address
shown.


iilease aelach here


Please send me an order form for County Business Patterns, 1977


N ,rrne


cr, I a' e z'~coee


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BurEdu o Ihe Ce'r.:.u
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or an, U S Dep.rrTrrnenI ol
Corrmer,:E *l,,ilr.Lc Offce


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of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
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