Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00219

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text











U.S. Department of Commer
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

Manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders



FEBRUARY 1979
M3-1 (79)-2
For Release 3:00 P.M., Friday, March 30, 1979


(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods increased $2.0 billion
or 1.4 percent to $144.5 billion, as orders in the aircraft and
parts industry offset declines reported by most of the other
durable goods industries, the Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census reported today. Total durable goods new orders
increased $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent, revising upward the 0.3
percent increase published in the advance report. Excluding the
aircraft industry, durable goods orders declined 1.9 percent or
$1.5 billion. In addition to aircraft, the electrical machinery
group also reported a large increase, up $0.4 billion or 3.8 per-
cent to $10.1 billion. The sharpest decline, reported by the
steel industry of $0.6 billion or 8.4 percent to $6.9 billion,
followed a significant January increase of $1.9 billion or 32.8
percent. Fabricated metal products also showed a sizable decline
of $0.3 billion or 3.5 percent, the largest for that industry cate-
gory since the June 1978 drop of 3.6 percent.
The rise in aircraft orders also resulted in an increase in new
orders for. nondefense capital goods of $1.3 billion or 5.9 per-
cent to $23.5 billion. Without the aircraft industry, nondefense
capital goods orders declined 2.5 percent. The more volatile
defense capital goods industries showed a $1.2 billion or 43.8
percent increase with all industry groups except ordance show-
ing increases.
Since new and unfilled orders are reported net of cancella-
tions of previously reported orders, special inquiries were in-
cluded in the survey beginning in February to measure the
possible impact of cancellations of orders by the Government
of Iran. It was learned that these cancellations have no signi-
ficant effect on orders estimates through February. This may
reflect the fact that many orders reported in the press as can-
celled had not yet been recorded as firm orders on company
books.
Shipments of manufactured goods increased 0.8 percent in
February, up $1.1 billion to $136.3 billion. Most of the durable
goods industries contributed to the increase, with steel ship-
ments increasing $0.6 billion or 11.6 percent after a 12.9 per-
cent January decline. A billion dollar decline in transportation
equipment shipments was mostly due to a drop of $0.8 billion
or 18.2 percent in the aircraft industry.
Nondurable goods shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.7


percent to $62.5 billion. The largest increases were $0.7 billion
or 3.7 percent in the foods industries, and $0.4 billion or 7.2
percent in the paper products.
The orders backlog for durable goods continued to increase,
up $7.8 billion or 3.3 percent to $245.8 billion for February.
Virtually all major industry groups contributed to the increase,
with transportation equipment accounting for over one-half
of the gain. Of the $4.5 billion backlog rise in the nondefense
capital goods industries, commercial aircraft orders accounted
for over three-fourths of the increase.
In 1978 the average monthly increase in the durable goods
orders backlog was 2.1 percent. With the consecutive increases
of more than 3.0 percent recorded in January and February of
1979, the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments rose to 4.17,
the highest level since the 4.20 of February 1976. The recent
increases in this ratio are due primarily to the new orders re-
ported for aircraft and parts.
The value of manufacturers' inventories rose $2.6 billion or
1.3 percent to $203.3 billion. This increase and the January
increase of 1.4 percent are the largest recorded since a 2.3 per-
cent jump in December 1974. The average monthly increases
in 1978 were 0.8 percent, in 1977 0.5 percent, and in 1976
0.6 percent.
Most of the durable goods industries contributed to the in-
crease with transportation equipment accounting for $0.9
billion. Increases in inventories reported by most nondurable
manufacturers were substantially offset by the third consecutive
monthly decline in petroleum products inventories. The $0.2
billion or 3.1 percent drop to $5.2 billion followed declines of
0.8 percent in January and 3.0 percent in December. For all
of 1978 the average monthly inventory decline reported by
petroleum refiners was 0.7 percent.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for March
is scheduled for release on April 20, 1979 and the full report is
schedules for release on May 1, 1979.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district
office. Postage stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or
by a draft on a U.S. bank. Price 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.






















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Table 6.--MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change Average, 1974-1978

3 months 12 months
Dec.
Item and industry group Jan.- 19- Nov.- Average Average
Feb Jan. Dec Nov. Aug.- May- Feb. 1978- rise decline
197 979 1978 1978- Nov. Aug. Feb 1979
Feb. 1979 1978 1978


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.......... +0.8 +0.1 +2.0 +1.0 +1.2 +1.2 +1.1 +1.7 -1.5

Durable goods industries, total......... +0.8 -0.3 +2.0 +1.0 +1.2 +1.2 +1.3 +2.0 -1.9
Nondurable goods industries, total...... +0.7 +0.7 +1.3 +0.9 +0.9 +0.6 +0.9 +1.7 -0.8

Total inventories:
All manufacturing industries.......... +1.3 +1.4 +0.6 +1.1 +0.6 +0.9 +0.9 +0.9 -0.3

New orders:
All manufacturing industries.......... +1.4 +1.5 +2.0 +1.6 +1.7 +0.7 +1.4 +2.1 -1.7
Durable goods industries, total......... +1.2 +2.6 +2.6 +2.1 +2.4 +0.9 +1.8 +3.3 -2.2
Nondurable goods industries, total...... +1.7 +0.1 +1.2 +1.9 +0.9 +0.6 +1.0 +1.7 -0.9

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries, total......... +3.3 +3.2 +2.3 +2.9 +2.4 +0.9 +2.1 +1.5 -0.8













Table 7.--RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Unfilled orders--shipments ratio1
Inventories--shipments ratio bco
(months' backlog)
Industry group
Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov.
1979 1979r 1978 1978 1979P 1979r 1978 1978


All manufacturing industries, total ..................... 1.49 1.48 1.46 1.48 3.55 3.47 3.35 3.36

Durable goods industries, total............................. 1.81 1.80 1.76 1.79 4.17 4.09 3.91 3.94

Stone, clay, and glass products........................... 1.36 1.35 1.22 1.24 0.83 0.87 0.81 0.76
Primary metals........................................... 1.53 1.64 1.58 1.67 2.64 2.69 2.29 2.38
Fabricated metals....................................... 1.98 1.95 1.86 1.92 3.40 3.36 3.19 3.27
Machinery, except electrical ............................. 2.47 2.54 2.43 2.46 4.57 4.72 4.49 4.64
Electrical machinery..... ............................... 1.97 1.97 1.94 2.01 3.59 3.50 3.46 3.51
Transportation equipment.................................. 1.46 1.33 1.39 1.37 10.43 8.99 9.55 9.16
Instruments and related products.......................... 2.49 2.49 2.42 2.35 1.88 1.95 1.88 1.78


Nondurable goods industries, total.......................... 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.12 0.79 0.77 0.80 0.79

Food and kindred products................................. 0.91 0.93 0.89 0.91 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products......................................... 3.68 3.48 3.89 3.70 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products..................................... 1.57 1.48 1.54 1.53 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products................................. 1.11 1.18 1.20 1.13 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products............................. 1.38 1.34 1.35 1.40 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products.............................. 0.56 0.59 0.59 0.63 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c....................... 1.22 1.27 1.38 1.26 (X) (X) (X) (X)

(NA) Not available. Preliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.
'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels and drums;
farm machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco;
apparel and related products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and 'rubber and plastics
products, n.e.c.








The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.


DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976 and issued in the report M3-1.7 released in
March 1978. In the absence of benchmark data for unfilled
orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the ratio of
unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the M3. These
levels were reset as of December 1973 in the M3-1.6 benchmark
publication released in December 1976.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response
difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on


pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.
To remedy the deficiencies of the presently published levels
of unfilled orders, an independent benchmark survey of unfilled
orders was initiated in 1977. Results from this survey should be
available in the latter part of 1978.


EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.







Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.












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Guide to Programs
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