Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00214

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS


Manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders


*.4rs o1
U.S. Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


I (All figures in text be1Q .

New orders for manufactured products increased $0.4 billion
or 0.3 percent to $131.4 billion in September, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. Durable
goods new orders were valued at $72.3 billion up $0.7 billion or
1.0 percent from August. Excluding transportation equipment,
orders for durable goods rose $0.8 billion or 1.5 percent to
$53.9 billion. Wide fluctuations in new orders for aircraft and
shipbuilding have been affecting the movement of new orders
for the last several months. This results in part from difficulty in
seasonally adjusting data for these industries especially for
defense new orders. This is discussed further below.
Shipments of manufactured products remained virtually
unchanged from the August level of $127.9 billion. Durable
goods shipments showed an increase of $0.2 billion or 0.3
percent to $68.9 billion while nondurable goods shipments
declined $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $59.0 billion.
Unfilled orders for durable goods continued to rise in
September with a $3.4 billion or 1.6 percent increase to $213.4
billion. During the last year backlog has increased steadily by an
average of 1.8 percent per month. Manufacturers' inventories at
the&end of September amounted to $194.1 billion, a $1.2 billion
or 0.6 percent increase over the August level.
The 1.5 percent rise in durable goods new orders, excluding
transportation equipment, was caused by blast furnaces and
steel mill products, up $0.6 billion or 11.1 percent to $5.8
billion, nonelectrical machinery up $0.8 billion or 7.1 percent
to $12.7 billion, electrical machinery, up $0.1 billion or 1.6
percent to $8.9 billion, and the instruments and related
products, up $0.1 billion or 4.7 percent to $2.8 billion.
Offsetting declines occurred in fabricated metal products of
$0.3 billion or 3.7 percent to $8.0 billion, nonferrous and other
primary metal products of $0.2 billion or 5.0 percent to $4.3
billion, and all other durable goods industries of $0.3 billion or
4.0 percent to $6.6 billion. All of these declines followed on
sizeable increases in August new orders.
New orders for the nondefense capital goods industries rose
$0.7 billion or 3.5 percent to $20.0 billion, with the main
contributors being nonelectrical machinery, communication
equipment and shipbuilding. Declines were reported by the
complete aircraft and railroad equipment industries. New orders
for the household durable goods series dropped $0.1 billion or
2.5 percent to $4.5 billion after an August increase of 13.0
percent.
Shipments of durable goods for September were up 0.3
percent or $0.2 billion to $68.9 billion. The major increase was
reported by the aircraft and parts industries which went up $0.6
billion or 15.5 percent to $4.1 billion. The blast furnace and


September 1978
M3-1(78)-9


fflTy adjusted current dollars.) I

steel mill industry also increased their shipments by $0.2 billion
or 3.0 percent. The nondurable goods industries reported a $0.2
billion decline in shipments. Increases in the chemicals, petro-
leum and coal industries were offset by declines in the food and
rubber and all other nondurable goods industries.
Shipments for the capital goods industries as a group showed
an increase of $0.9 billion or 4.2 percent to $21.3 billion with
both defense and nondefense shipments increasing by the same
relative amounts. The household durable goods category de-
clined $0.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $4.3 billion.
Increases in the order backlog for durable and nondurable
goods were evidenced in most major industry groups. The only
declines were in stone, clay, and glass products; fabricated metal
products; and the miscellaneous durable goods industries.
Inventories of durable and nondurable goods manufacturers
showed identical percentage increases of 0.6 percent in
September. The durable goods industries increase of $0.8 billion
to $126.0 billion resulted from increases in the transportation
industries of $0.3 billion and by the machinery industries of
$0.3 billion.
It should again be noted that for all of the defense capital
goods series, modified seasonal adjustment factors were used to
account for the change in the Federal Government's fiscal year
from a July 1 through June 30 basis to an October 1 through
September 30 basis in 1976. These factors were introduced in
the July 1977 data and will continue to be used until a
sufficient amount of data are available to assess the impact of
the change in fiscal year. Further seasonal adjustment modifica-
tions are made for motor vehicle assembly plants which during
July, August, and September, are closed down to allow for
retooling for the forthcoming model year. Year-to-year varia-
tions in both the timing and duration of the model changeover
period are sufficiently great that the normal seasonal adjustment
procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during
the period and may introduce substantial erratic movements. To
compensate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted quarterly
average is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3
months. The unadjusted data are not subject to any special
adjustments.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for October
is scheduled for release on Novemebr 22, 1978 and the full
report is scheduled for release on December 4, 1978.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district
office. Postage stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or
by a draft on a U.S. bank. Price 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.












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Table 6.--MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change Average, 1973-1977

3 months 12 months
Item and industry group August- July- June-
September August July June- May- April- Average Average
1978 1978 1978 Sept. 1977 rise decline
1978 1978 1978 Sept. August July
1978 1978 1978 Sept. 1978


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries........... -0.0 +3.9 -1.4 +0.8 +1.2 -0.4 +1.1 +1.5 -1.2

Durable goods industries, total......... +0.3 +5.3 -1.6 +1.3 +1.7 -0.6 +1.3 +1.8 -1.9
Nondurable goods industries, total...... -0.4 +2.3 -1.1 +0.3 +0.6 -0.2 +0.9 +1.7 -0.7

Total inventories:
All manufacturing industries.......... +0.6 +0.9 +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 +0.7 +1.0 -0.3

New orders:
All manufacturing industries........... +0.3 +6.2 -3.4 +1.0 +0.7 -1.3 +1.2 +2.0 -1.4
Durable goods industries, total......... +1.0 +9.8 -5.3 +1.8 +0.9 -2.3 +1.6 +2.9 -2.1
Nondurable goods industries, total...... -0.5 +2.2 -1.1 +0.2 +0.6 0.0 +0.9 +1.8 -0.8

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries, total......... +1.6 +1.4 0.0 +1.0 +0.9 +1.2 +1.7 +1.6 -0.9













Table 7.--RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventories--shipments ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratio'
Inventories--shipments ratio o backlog)
(months backlog)
Industry group
Sept. August July June Sept. August July June
1978P 1978r 1978 1978 1978P 1978r 1978 1978


All manufacturing industries, total..................... 1.52 1.51 1.55 1.52 3.26 3.22 3.33 3.29

Durable goods industries, total ............................ 1.83 1.82 1.90 1.85 3.83 3.79 3.96 3.90

Stone, clay, and glass products........................... 1.26 1.24 1.26 1.23 0.80 0.80 0.85 0.85
Primary metals............................................ 1.72 1.70 1.75 1.75 2.40 2.30 2.35 2.34
Fabricated metals...... ................................... 2.01 1.99 2.16 2.04 3.38 3.35 3.67 3.52
Machinery, except electrical ............................. 2.45 2.48 2.54 2.52 4.60 4.65 4.78 4.78
Electrical machinery...................................... 1.99 1.98 2.08 2.04 3.40 3.37 3.51 3.49
Transportation equipment.................................. 1.42 1.43 1.48 1.43 8.18 8.30 8.96 8.60
Instruments and related products......................... 2.37 2.31 2.40 2.32 1.77 1.71 1.80 1.68


Nondurable goods industries, total.......................... 1.15 1.14 1.16 1.14 0.79 0.77 0.77 0.76

Food and kindred products................................ 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products......................................... 3.77 3.65 4.11 3.65 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products..................................... 1.53 1.50 1.52 1.52 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products................................. 1.22 1.20 1.22 1.22 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products............................. 1.47 1.49 1.45 1.39 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products................................ 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.63 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c....................... 1.33 1.30 1.39 1.38 (X) (X) (X) (X)

(NA) Not available. Preliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.
'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass-containers; metal cans, barrels and drums;
farm machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco;
apparel and related products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics
products, n.e.c.








The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.


DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976 and issued in the report M3-1.7 released in
March 1978. In the absence of benchmark data for unfilled
orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the ratio of
unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the M3. These
levels were reset as of December 1973 in the M3-1.6 benchmark
publication released in December 1976.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response
difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on


pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.
To remedy the deficiencies of the presently published levels
of unfilled orders, an independent benchmark survey of unfilled
orders was initiated in 1977. Results from this survey should be
available in the latter part of 1978.


EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.







Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


13
change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.






































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