S- ,- ".
U.S. Department of Commr
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS
CD Inventories, and Orders
For Wire Transmission 2:30 P.M. E.S.T. Wednesday, March 3, 1982
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)
New orders for manufactured goods in January declined
$1.9 billion or 12 percent to $157.6 billion, the Department
of Commerce. Bureau of the Census reported today. Since
orders peaked last July at $172.6 billion, new orders have de-
clined each month, except November when they recovered
slightly from a large drop in October. Excluding the defense
capital goods category, new orders declined 2.0 percent.
Shipments of manufactured goods declined for the seventh
consecutive month. The January decrease was $3.9 billion or
2.4 percent to $157.2 billion. The book value of manufacturers'
inventories declined $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent following a
decrease in December of 1.1 percent. Despite the reduction in
the January inventory levels, the inventory to shipments ratio
increased in January to 1.75 from 1.72 in December.
The decline in new orders for manufactured goods in January
was widespread. Within the durable goods industries, which
were down in total $1.4 billion or 1.7 percent to $78.4 billion,
all major industries except transportation equipment showed
decreases. Excluding defense capital goods, new orders for
durables were down 3.5 percent. New orders for primary metals
were down for the sixth consecutive month, as a decline in steel
orders of $0.3 billion or 6.5 percent to $4.6 billion was partially
offset by increases in nonferrous metals and foundry orders.
New orders for nonelectrical machinery were off $2.2 billion
or 12.6 percent while orders for electrical machinery were down
$0.1 billion or 1.1 percent.
New orders for transportation equipment had a large increase
in January, going up $2.0 billion or 12.5 percent to $18.1
billion. New orders for the aircraft and shipbuilding categories,
both of which are heavily influenced by defense orders, to-
gether were up $3.3 billion. New orders in the motor vehicle
and parts industry were down $1.3 billion or 13.1 percent to
Within the capital goods industries, new orders for defense
capital goods were up $1.2 billion or 21 percent to $7.3 billion
following increases in December of 24 percent and in November
of 27 percent.
New orders for nondefense capital goods were down $0.3
billion or 1.3 percent, as a large decline in nonelectrical ma-
chinery orders was partially offset by an increase in the aircraft,
missiles and parts category.
The decline in shipments of manufactured products in Jan-
uary of $3.9 billion or 2.4 percent to $157.2 billion was caused
mostly by decreases in the durable goods components. The
largest were in the motor vehicle and parts industry, down $1.1
billion or 11.1 percent to $8.9 billion; the aircraft, missiles and
parts industry, down $0.9 billion or 16.6 percent to $4.5
billion; and the nonelectrical machinery industry, down $1.0
billion or 5.6 percent to $16.5 billion. The only significant in-
crease in shipments came from the primary metals category,
where an increase of $0.8 billion or 8.0 percent to $10.6 billion
followed 4 months of declines.
Shipments of nondurable goods were down $0.7 billion or
0.9 percent to $79.2 billion. The chemical industries showed
the largest dollar decline, down $0.5 billion or 3.3 percent.
The backlog of orders for manufactured goods in January
valued at $320.3 billion, increased $0.4 billion, following 3
months of declines. A $2.8 billion rise in the transportation
equipment backlog was offset by declines in nearly all the
other major durable goods industry categories. The increase in
the transportation equipment backlog was due almost entirely
to defense order increases. The backlog for defense capital
goods at the end of the month stood at $83.9 billion, up 3.8
percent from December.
The decline in the book value of manufacturers' inventories
in January was distributed across nearly all industries, both
durable and nondurable. Durable goods inventories were down
$0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $184.4 billion while nondurable
goods inventories were down $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to
The pattern of change in inventories by stage of fabrication
was different between the durable and nondurable goods cate-
gories. For the durable goods industries, the value of finished
goods inventories declined 1.7 percent, while the value of
raw materials and work-in-process inventories showed little
change from December. Within the nondurable goods industries
all stages of fabrication had small decreases in January.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for February
is scheduled for release on March 19, 1982, and the full report
is scheduled for release on March 30, 1982.
Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell-Menth, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.
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Fnabl, c. PERCENr CHANGE ES AND IEV1.S10NS FO0l MA' (IFACtUi- R Sl IM ISNTS, INVAiNTOKI-S, AND O)ltIS
(Bast-d so sfasonally ad iu-e.d data)
Itv1 and indust g group
Mon th-io-i :th
Dc. 1981- Nov. 1981-
.ian. 1982 Dec. 1982.
All anufactur dustr s ......... -2.4 0
able go s industries ........... -0
NondurablU gomxis industrifs........ -.9 ~U. 3
All manufacturing industries ..... .. -.* -1.1
All manufacturing industries... .. -1. -0.3
Durable goods ndustrie ........... -1 -
Nondurable goods industries ........ -0. -e 1
Durable. goods industries ............. .2 -0.
Avtr.I gt" lnthiy rates ,I change1
___________ I + I I
Average 1nn th l
"Nethod of calculation of these percentages for the quarter and the 12-month time intervals reflect compounded monthly growth rates.
IlTe revisions are the differences between the month-to-mo nth percent changes of the preliminary and filal estimates, File monthly averages are
the simple averages of the differences, without regard to si gn, for the months specified. The advance to tinal percent change differences lor the
durable goods industries are shown in the advance report for the month.
Table 7. RATIO OF VA1N1 ICTUREIRS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILI.ED ORDERS TO SHIPMENT-, BY INDUSTRY GROUP
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)
Invntori hipent ratio filled orders--shipments ratio1
Inventoriea--shiprents ratio (ronth baclog)
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct.
1982 1981 1981 1981 1982 1981 1981 1981
All manufacturing industries .......................... 1.75 1.72 1.73 1.70 J.84 3.74 3.72 3.74
Durable goods industries.. ............................... 2.37 2.28 2.29 2.26 4.65 4.51 4.49 4.49
Stone, clay, and glass products ............................ 1.80 1.82 1.80 1.80 0.64 0.68 0.07 0.65
Primary metals ............................................. 2.38 2.57 2.38 2.28 2.39 2.71 2.54 2.50
Fabricated etals........................................... 2.24 2..15 2.18 2.0b 33.44 3.36 3.33 3.17
Machinery, except electrical.............................. 2.57 2.44 2.44 2.50 4.72 4.60 4.57 4.73
Electrical machinery........................................ 2.31 2.36 3 2.3b 2.39 4.67 4.62 4.47 4.50
Transportation equipment.................................... 2.59 2.28 2.40 2.34 12.35 10.61 11.25 11.59
Instruments and related products............................ 2.4b 2.30 2.36 2.29 1.83 1.69 1.7t 1.66
nondurable goods industries.................................. 1.15 1.14 ] 1.15 1.13 0.l U -60 0. 2 0.64
Food and kindred products.................................... 0.99 0.99 1.01 0.98 (X) (X) (M) (X)
Tobacco products. .......................................... 3.67 3 56 3.44 3.b8 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products.. ........................... 1.64 1.73 1 1.71 1.64 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products ..... ......... ................... 1.32 1.35 1.35 1.34 (NA (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products.............................. 1.33 1.29 1.35 1.38 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal product ............. .................. 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.53 (1) (1) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.. ....................... 1.44 1.49 1.59 1.45 (X) (X) (X) (X)
(NA) Not available.
PPreliminary. Revised. (N) Not applicable.
1Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers metal cans, barrels, and drums: farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related productI ; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.
DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Survey provides broad-based monthly statistical data on eco-
nomic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. It is
designed to measure current industrial activity and to provide
an indication of future trends. The data are used extensively
by the executive branch of the Government in developing eco-
nomic, fiscal, and monetary policy; by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) as components of the gross national product
estimates; and by trade associations, corporate economists, and
other members of the business community as an analytical tool
in their assessment of the current and future economic condition
of the country.
The M3 shipments and inventory data are comparable to the
totals published in the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM).
The ASM is a sample survey of approximately 70,000 manu-
facturing establishments drawn from a 5-year census of manu-
factures universe of about 350,000 manufacturing establish-
ments. In the ASM, each manufacturing location reports data
on value of shipments, beginning and end-of-year inventories,
as well as various other economic variables.
The monthly M3 estimates through 1980 are based on
information obtained from approximately 4,500 reporting units
and include most manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees. In addition, selected smaller companies are included
to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cate-
gories. For firms which operate in a single M3 industry category,
the reporting unit typically comprises all operations of the
company. At the request of the Census Bureau, most large,
diversified companies file separate reports for divisions which
operate in different industrial areas.
Each company or reporting unit of a company in the survey
is classified into 1 of 79 industry categories for which separate
estimates are made based on the major activity of the reporting
unit. Some reporting units include industry activities outside
the M3 category in which they are classified. The survey
methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the
reporting units classified in each industry category effectively
represent the month-to-month movements of the establishments
in the SIC industries which make up the category.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the Census of
Manufactures and the ASM for shipments and inventories. The
most recent benchmark included data for 1977 and 1978. Since
benchmark data for unfilled orders are not available, levels are
based upon the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments of report-
ing companies. In the 1977-1978 benchmark report, unfilled
orders levels were revalued based on unfilled orders to ship-
ments ratios of reporting companies in the monthly M3 survey;
the MA-300, a one-time annual supplemental survey of multi-
establishment companies; and the ASM for single-establishment
MONTHLY ESTIMATING PROCEDURE
The monthly estimates of shipments, unfilled orders, and
total inventories are derived for each industry category by
multiplying the industry estimate for the previous month by
the percentage change from the previous month for companies
reporting in the current month.
Though collected as a separate item, new orders are not
calculated according to the standard ratio-estimate procedure.
The reason for this is that not all companies report new orders
and some that do report this item limit their reporting to
specific products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
New orders are, therefore, computed by adjusting the current
month's shipments by the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders. (New orders equal current month shipments plus cur-
rent month unfilled orders minus prior month unfilled orders.)
Thus, the estimate of new orders includes orders that are re-
ceived and filled in the same month as well as new orders that
have not yet been filled. Also included are the effects of can-
cellations and modifications on previously reported orders.
The monthly data on shipments, inventories, and unfilled
orders are adjusted for seasonality at the most detailed level
tabulated in the survey, using the X-11 variant of the Census
Bureau's seasonal adjustment program. Data from January 1958
through December 1980 are included in the calculations of the
factors used in this publication.
Seasonally adjusted industry aggregates are derived by adding
seasonally adjusted components rather than by direct seasonal
adjustment of the aggregates. New orders data are not inde-
pendently seasonally adjusted but are derived at the most de-
tailed levels from the seasonally adjusted shipments and the
change in the seasonally adjusted unfilled orders and then
EXPLANATION OF TERMS
Value of Shipments-The shipments estimates published in
the monthly survey are equivalent to value of shipments as re-
ported in the ASM which are net selling values, f.o.b. plant,
after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges
and excise taxes. Included in shipments is the value of all prod-
ucts sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts for contract work performed
for others, resales, receipts for miscellaneous activities such as
the sale of scrap and refuse; value of installation and repair work
performed by employees of the plant; and value of research and
development performed at the plant. In the shipbuilding in-
dustry, the value of shipments in a given time period varies
considerably from the value of work done because of the long
lead time between the input of the materials and labor and the
delivery of the completed ship. For this industry and for aircraft
and missile producers working under cost-plus contracts, the
value of work done during the year is requested rather than the
value of shipments.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and M3 industry
category levels since the products of some four-digit SIC indus-
tries are used as materials by other industries within the same
industry aggregate. The significance of the duplication within
the specific M3 industry categories varies depending on their
four-digit industry composition. It is most pronounced in a
few highly integrated industry areas, such as primary metals
and motor vehicles and parts.
For multiunit companies, the M3 reports received each
month typically are not plant reports but are company or divi-
sional level reports that encompass groups of plants. The actual
sales reported are usually net sales and receipts from customers
and exclude the duplication of interplant transfers. The reported
sales are used to calculate month-to-month changes which bring
forward the plant-based shipments for the industry category
as estimated in the ASM.
Inventories-In the monthly survey and in the ASM, respond-
ents are asked to report their inventories at book values. Since
different methods of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO,
etc.), the definition of the value of aggregate inventories for all
plants in an industry is not precise.
There are also some inconsistencies between the M3 com-
pany or divisional reported inventory levels as compared with
the ASM establishment reported levels. The change in the value
of inventories, month-to-month as well as year-to-year, is con-
sidered to have greater significance and reliability.
Inventory data are requested from respondents by stage of
fabrication, i.e., finished goods, work in process, and raw
materials and supplies. However, the quality of these data is
limited due to lower response rates and the inclusion of the
same type of inventory under different stages of fabrication
in the aggregate statistics.
New Orders Received and Unfilled Orders-Orders as re-
ported in the monthly survey are net of cancellations received
during the month on orders previously reported. They include
orders received and filled during the month as well as orders
received for future delivery. They also include the net sales
value of contract changes which increase or decrease the sales
value of the unfilled orders to which they relate. Orders are
defined to include only those supported by binding legal docu-
ments such as signed contracts, letters of award, or letters of
intent, although in some industries this definition may not be
strictly applicable. In the case of letters of intent, the full
amount of the sales value is included if the parties are in sub-
stantial agreement on the amount; otherwise, only the funds
specifically authorized to be expended are included.
Unfilled orders include orders as defined above that have
not been reflected as shipments. Generally, unfilled orders at
the end of the reporting period are equal to unfilled orders
at the beginning of the period plus net new orders received
less net shipments.
New Residential Construction
in Selected Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Builders, urban planners, economists, I|
bankers, and State and local government *I*ei Ilu s.I
officials are interested in new private
residential construction in metropolitan
The following standard metropolitan
statistical areas are shown in this
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, California
Las Vegas, Nevada
Los Angeles-Long Beach, California
New Orleans, Louisiana
New York, New York-New Jersey
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California
Salt Lake City-Ogden, Utah
San Diego, California
San Jose, California
For these SMSA's quarterly data are provided
on the number of housing units. ..
Authorized, by building permit
Authorized, but not yet started
U.S. Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
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