Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00186

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text

CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

Manufacturers' Shipments,

/1 "tL Inventories, and Orders


U.S. Department of Cc
BUREAU OF THE CENSL


JULY 1981
M3-1(81)-7


below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods increased in July by
$2.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $173.1 billion the Department of
Commerce. Bureau of the Census reported today.
The durable goods industries accounted for the total increase
in new orders, going up $2.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $90.5
billion. Within durable goods, the aircraft and parts industries,
which are quite volatile month to month, increased $2.0 billion
or 50 percent to $6.1 billion, following a 30 percent decline in
June. Without the aircraft industry the increase in durable goods
orders was much less significant, going up only 0.2 percent.
New orders for primary metals in July were up $1.1 billion
or 9.8 percent to $12.4 billion. Steel orders increased 7.0
percent after 2 months of declines, while nonferrous metal
orders increased 13.9 percent. New orders in the shipbuilding
industry, also volatile monthly, amounted to $1.6 billion in
July, nearly double the June orders of $0.9 billion. The main
declines in durable goods new orders occurred in the machinery
and automotive industries. Electrical machinery orders declined
$0.5 billion or 4.3 percent and nonelectrical orders were down
$0.3 billion or 1.6 percent. For the motor vehicle and parts
industry, new orders showed a $1.0 billion decline. For the
automotive assembly portion of this industry, new orders
directly reflect shipments for the month since no backlog of
orders is reported.
Within the capital goods categories, new orders for non-
defense capital goods increased $1.8 billion or 7.9 percent to
$25.1 billion. A large increase in the commercial aircraft
industry was partially offset by the decline in machinery orders.
New orders for defense capital goods increased 10.3 percent
from $5.0 billion in June to $5.5 billion.
Shipments of manufactured goods in July declined $1.2
billion or 0.7 percent to $170.3 billion. Except for June when
shipments were reported up $2.4 percent, the change in value of
shipments monthly has been relatively flat since October,
increasing at rates of less than 1.0 percent per month. This is the
first decline in shipments reported since a 1.5 percent decrease
in May 1980.
Within the durable goods industries where shipments were
off $1.3 billion or 1.5 percent for the month, the motor vehicle
and parts industry declined $1.3 billion or 9.6 percent to $12.1


billion.' Excluding that industry, durable goods shipments
showed virtually no change in volume from June to July.
Shipments by the nondurable goods industries in July, valued
at $82.8 billion, similarly showed little change from last month.
Decreases in the petroleum and food products industries were
offset by increases in most of the other nondurable goods
categories.
The value of the orders backlog of manufacturers in July was
estimated at $328.7 billion, up $2.8 billion or 0.9 percent from
June. This increase was a composite of small gains which were
widespread throughout the durable goods industries. The
unfilled orders to shipments ratio which peaked at 4.04 in May
and June of 1980 has now dropped to 3.65.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories in July reached
$272.2 billion, up $2.5 billion or 0.9 percent from June. Nearly
all industries reported increases although petroleum inventories
declined $0.4 billion or 3.8 percent. The change in the value of
inventories by stage of fabrication showed a somewhat different
.pattern from total inventories. Raw materials and supplies
increased 1.7 percent for July while work in process and
finished goods were up 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent, respec-
tively.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for August is
scheduled for release on September 22, 1981, and the full
report is scheduled for release on October 1, 1981.


Motor vehicle assembly plants close down for retooling, generally
during July, August, and September, for the forthcoming model year.
Year-to-year variations in both the timing and duration of the model
changeover period are sufficiently great that the normal seasonal
adjustment procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during
the period and may introduce substantial erratic movement. To compen-
sate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted monthly average for the
quarter is used for the seasonally adjusted data in each of the 3 months.
These seasonally adjusted data are recompiled each month as additional
information is received. The seasonally unadjusted automotive data are
not subject to any special estimating procedure.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.











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Table 6, PERCENT CHANGES AND REVISIONS FOR MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Percent change Revisions2

Month-to-month Average monthly rate of change Year Average monthly
Item and industry group ear
June 1981- May 1981- Apr. 1981- Second First Fourth Aug. 1980 ag Ju 1980
July July 1980 July
July 1981 June 1981 May 1981 quarter quarter quarter through 1980 through 1976-1980
July 1981 June 1981 May 1981 1980 1976-1980
1981 1981 1980 July 1981 June 1981


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries........ -0.7 +2.4 0 0 +1.1 +0.4 +1 4 +1.0 0.3 0.3
Durable goods industries......... -1,5 +2.4 +0.4 +1.4 +0.6 +1.5 +1.2 0.5 0 4 0 5
Nondurable goods industries........ +0.1 +2.3 -0.4 +0.8 +0 2 +1 3 +0.9 0.8 0.4 0 8

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries ........ +0.9 +0.2 +0.7 +0 4 +1.1 +0 1 +05 02 0.2 0 1

New Orders:
All manufacturing industries ......... +1.3 +0.9 +0.5 +0 7 +0.1 +1 5 +0.9 0.3 0.3 0.6
Durable goods industries......... +2.5 +0 2 +1.1 +0.6 +0 1 +1 8 +1 0 1.0 0.6 1.0
Nondurable goods industries....... 0.0 +1.8 -0.3 +0.8 +0.1 +1 3 +0.9 0,4 0.4 0.6

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries ............ +1 0 -0 2 +0 5 +0.2 +0.4 +0 5 +0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2

Represents zero.
iMethod of calculation of these percentages for the quarter and the 12-month time intervals reflect compounded monthly growth rates
2The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the preliminary and final estimates. The monthly averages are
the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign, for the months specified. The advance to final percent change differences for the
durable goods industries are shown in the advance report for the month.





Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventories--shipments ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratio'
(months' backlog)
Industry group
July June May Apr. July June May Apr.
1981P 1981r 1981 1981 1981P 1981r 1981 1981


All manufacturing industries........................... 1.60 1.57 1.61 1.60 3.65 3.62 3.69 3.69

Durable goods industries.................................... 2.07 2.01 2.05 2.05 4.35 4.30 4.40 4.41
Stone, clay, and glass products............................ 1.57 1.57 1.56 1.49 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.58
Primary metals............................................. 1.99 1.98 1.96 2.00 2.41 2.42 2.46 2.49
Fabricated metals......................................... 1.91 1.89 1.87 1.89 3.19 3.10 3.07 3.12
Machinery, except electrical............................... 2.39 2.33 2.39 2.36 4.75 4.72 4.86 4.84
Electrical machinery....................................... 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.25 4.29 4.29 4.24 4.32
Transportation equipment.................................. 2.07 1.89 2.01 2.02 10.87 10.16 11.11 11.07
Instruments and related products.......................... 2.24 2.26 2.29 2.38 1.69 1.66 1.66 1.71

Nondurable goods industries................................... 1.10 1.10 1.13 1.11 0.65 0.68 0.69 0.67
Food and kindred products.................................. 0.98 0.96 1.01 0.97 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products......................................... 3.00 3.09 3.58 3.33 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products...................................... 1.52 1.48 1.51 1.56 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products................................... 1.29 1.30 1.28 1.26 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products............................. 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.33 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products................................. 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.62 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c........................ 1.38 1.38 1.46 1.43 (X) (X) (X) (X)


(NA) Not available.


Preliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.


'Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels, and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.








DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Survey provides broad-based monthly statistical data on eco-
nomic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. It is
designed to measure current industrial activity and to provide
an indication of future trends. The data are used extensively
by the executive branch of the Government in developing eco-
nomic, fiscal, and monetary policy; by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) as components of the gross national product
estimates; and by trade associations, corporate economists, and
other members of the business community as an analytical tool
in their assessment of the current and future economic condition
of the country.
The M3 shipments and inventory data are comparable to the
totals published in the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM).
The ASM is a sample survey of approximately 70,000 manu-
facturing establishments drawn from a 5-year census of manu-
factures universe of about 350,000 manufacturing establish-
ments. In the ASM, each manufacturing location reports data
on value of shipments, beginning and end-of-year inventories,
as well as various other economic variables.
The monthly M3 estimates through 1980 are based on
information obtained from approximately 4,500 reporting units
and include most manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees. In addition, selected smaller companies are included
to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cate-
gories. For firms which operate in a single M3 industry category,
the reporting unit typically comprises all operations of the
company. At the request of the Census Bureau, most large,
diversified companies file separate reports for divisions which
operate in different industrial areas.
Each company or reporting unit of a company in the survey
is classified into 1 of 79 industry categories for which separate
estimates are made based on the major activity of the reporting
unit. Some reporting units include industry activities outside
the M3 category in which they are classified. The survey
methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the
reporting units classified in each industry category effectively
represent the month-to-month movements of the establishments
in the SIC industries which make up the category.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the Census of
Manufactures and the ASM for shipments and inventories. The
most recent benchmark included data for 1977 and 1978. Since
benchmark data for unfilled orders are not available, levels are
based upon the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments of report-
ing companies. In the 1977-1978 benchmark report, unfilled
orders levels were revalued based on unfilled orders to ship-
ments ratios of reporting companies in the monthly M3 survey;
the MA-300, a one-time annual supplemental survey of multi-
establishment companies; and the ASM for single-establishment
companies.

MONTHLY ESTIMATING PROCEDURE

The monthly estimates of shipments, unfilled orders, and
total inventories are derived for each industry category by


multiplying the industry estimate for the previous month by
the percentage change from the previous month for companies
reporting in the current month.
Though collected as a separate item, new orders are not
calculated according to the standard ratio-estimate procedure.
The reason for this is that not all companies report new orders
and some that do report this item limit their reporting to
specific products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
New orders are, therefore, computed by adjusting the current
month's shipments by the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders. (New orders equal current month shipments plus cur-
rent month unfilled orders minus prior month unfilled orders.)
Thus, the estimate of new orders includes orders that are re-
ceived and filled in the same month as well as new orders that
have not yet been filled. Also included are the effects of can-
cellations and modifications on previously reported orders.

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

The monthly data on shipments, inventories, and unfilled
orders are adjusted for seasonality at the most detailed level
tabulated in the survey, using the X-11 variant of the Census
Bureau's seasonal adjustment program. Data from January 1958
through December 1980 are included in the calculations of the
factors used in this publication.
Seasonally adjusted industry aggregates are derived by adding
seasonally adjusted components rather than by direct seasonal
adjustment of the aggregates. New orders data are not inde-
pendently seasonally adjusted but are derived at the most de-
tailed levels from the seasonally adjusted shipments and the
change in the seasonally adjusted unfilled orders and then
similarly aggregated.

EXPLANATION OF TERMS
Value of Shipments-The shipments estimates published in
the monthly survey are equivalent to value of shipments as re-
ported in the ASM which are net selling values, f.o.b. plant,
after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges
and excise taxes. Included in shipments is the value of all prod-
ucts sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts for contract work performed
for others, resales, receipts for miscellaneous activities such as
the sale of scrap and refuse; value of installation and repair work
performed by employees of the plant; and value of research and
development performed at the plant. In the shipbuilding in-
dustry, the value of shipments in a given time period varies
considerably from the value of work done because of the long
lead time between the input of the materials and labor and the
delivery of the completed ship. For this industry and for aircraft
and missile producers working under cost-plus contracts, the
value of work done during the year is requested rather than the
value of shipments.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and M3 industry








category levels since the products of some four-digit SIC indus-
tries are used as materials by other industries within the same
industry aggregate. The significance of the duplication within
the specific M3 industry categories varies depending on their
four-digit industry composition. It is most pronounced in a
few highly integrated industry areas, such as primary metals
and motor vehicles and parts.
For multiunit companies, the M3 reports received each
month typically are not plant reports but are company or divi-
sional level reports that encompass groups of plants. The actual
sales reported are usually net sales and receipts from customers
and exclude the duplication of interplant transfers. The reported
sales are used to calculate month-to-month changes which bring
forward the plant-based shipments for the industry category
as estimated in the ASM.

Inventories-In the monthly survey and in the ASM, respond-
ents are asked to report their inventories at book values. Since
different methods of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO,
etc.), the definition of the value of aggregate inventories for all
plants in an industry is not precise.
There are also some inconsistencies between the M3 com-
pany or divisional reported inventory levels as compared with
the ASM establishment reported levels. The change in the value
of inventories, month-to-month as well as year-to-year, is con-
sidered to have greater significance and reliability.


Inventory data are requested from respondents by stage of
fabrication, i.e., finished goods, work in process, and raw
materials and supplies. However, the quality of these data is
limited due to lower response rates and the inclusion of the
same type of inventory under different stages of fabrication
in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders Received and Unfilled Orders-Orders as re-
ported in the monthly survey are net of cancellations received
during the month on orders previously reported. They include
orders received and filled during the month as well as orders
received for future delivery. They also include the net sales
value of contract changes which increase or decrease the sales
value of the unfilled orders to which they relate. Orders are
defined to include only those supported by binding legal docu-
ments such as signed contracts, letters of award, or letters of
intent, although in some industries this definition may not be
strictly applicable. In the case of letters of intent, the full
amount of the sales value is included if the parties are in sub-
stantial agreement on the amount; otherwise, only the funds
specifically authorized to be expended are included.
Unfilled orders include orders as defined above that have
not been reflected as shipments. Generally, unfilled orders at
the end of the reporting period are equal to unfilled orders
at the beginning of the period plus net new orders received
less net shipments.








From the Bureau of the Census...
a report on how the 1977
economic censuses were taken-


The History of the 1977 Eco-
nomic Censuses chronicles the
planning, data collecting, data
processing, and publication of 1977
census results. Based on memoran-
dums, interviews, specifications,
internal progress reports, and other
planning documents, this report is
a history of the latest quinquennial
censuses of the Nation's economic
activity prepared by the Census
Bureau for general distribution.
The history covers the censuses
of retail trade, wholesale trade,
service industries, construction
industries, manufactures, mineral
industries, transportation, and
women-owned businesses;
the survey of minority-owned
business enterprises and the special
survey of women-owned business-
es; and the enterprise statistics
program. The introduction contains
a synopsis of census operations.
The publication is illustrated with
maps, tables, and charts. Appendixes


present specialized reference
materials, including a history of
previous economic censuses; a
roster of key Census personnel;
descriptions of geographic areas
covered and codes used; a list of
questionnaire forms and facsimiles
of selected ones; lists of published
census reports; provisions of title


13, United States Code, relating
to the 1977 economic censuses;
principal advisory committees and
conferences on the 1977 censuses;
and a glossary of economic terms.
The 1977 history is of special
value to users of census data and to
students of survey techniques.
S N 003-024-02924-3 560 pp. at $10

Other Census
Histories
This report on the 1977 economic
censuses is part of a continuing
program of histories prepared for
each major census. Those for the
1978 Census of Agriculture and the
1980 Census of Population and
Housing are currently in prepara-
tion. The various phases of the
1982 economic and agricultural
censuses are being recorded and
histories of them will be issued
after the census period ends in
1985.


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