Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00185

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text
3


Manufacturers' Shipments,



4. JUNE 1981
U.S. Department of Commerce
M3-1(81)-6
BURE AU OF THE CENSUS For Wire Transmission 2:30 P.M. E.D.T. Friday, July 31, 1981

1 (All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.) I


The January through June data presented in this report are consistent with
by the Department of Commerce. These revisions, published in Manufa r.
(M3-1.10), reflect: benchmarking of the shipments and inventory data Ov
Survey of Manufactures; benchmarking defense shipments to the MA-1 i "h i
lation of new orders estimates which are derived from the estimates of ir3 d o
levels; and updating of seasonal adjustment factors. 9 I


New orders for manufactured goods in June increased $1.5
billion or 0.9% to $170.9 billion the Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census reported today. New orders for the
durable goods industries increased $0.3 billion or 0.4% to $88.5
billion, revised from the earlier reported decline of 0.8%. Most
of the revision was due to more complete reporting in the
transportation and nonelectrical machinery categories.
Within the major durable industry categories the pattern of
change in new orders from May to June was mixed. New orders
for electrical machinery were up $0.9 billion or 7.4% to $12.6
billion, with communication equipment and radio and TV's
showing the largest increases. New orders for transportation
equipment were down in June $0.8 billion or 3.8% to $19.3
billion. The largest decline was in aircraft and parts orders,
down $1.6 billion or 27% to $4.2 billion. New orders for the
aircraft and parts industry so far this year have averaged $5.1
billion, compared to the monthly averages in 1980 of $5.3
billion, and 1979 of $5.4 billion. New orders for fabricated
metal products were up $0.5 billion or 4.2% for the month to
$11.1 billion, while orders for primary metals were down
$0.5 billion or 4.6% to $11.3 billion. The primary metal decline
was attributable to the nonferrous category which has shown
order declines in 7 of the last 8 months.
New orders in the capital goods categories, both defense and
nondefense, were down in June. New orders for nondefense
capital goods were down $0.6 billion or 2.6% to $23.2 billion,
as the decline in aircraft orders was only partially offset by in-
creases in most of the other categories. Without the aircraft
industry, nondefense capital goods orders increased 2.1%. New
orders for defense capital goods decreased $0.2 billion or 4.6%
to $5.1 billion, following a 35% increase last month.
Shipments of manufactured goods in June increased $3.4
billion or 2.0% to $171.0 billion. This is the largest one month
increase recorded since a 2.6% increase last October.


N'j972-1980 released July 21, 1981
, stories, and Orders: 1972-1980
(n ctures and the 1978 Annual
fe _ernment Agencies; recalcu-
penl v justments to unfilled orders


1A crease in dur ds shipments was mostly attri-
butabl I vehicle and parts category. Ship-
ments for re up $1.1 billion or 9.4% to $13.4
billion, nearly doue the volume of shipments of June 1980
of $7.6 billion.
A 2.0% increase in nondurable goods shipments resulted
from widespread gains. The largest dollar increase occurred in
the food products industry where an increase of $0.6 billion
or 2.9% to $22.6 billion followed a 3.4% decline in May.
The level of manufacturers' unfilled orders in June remained
virtually unchanged from May at $326.5 billion. An increase in
the backlog of orders for defense capital goods of $1.1 billion or
1.5% to $75.0 billion was offset by a $1.1 billion decline in
nondefense capital goods orders backlog. The decline in the
nondefense category was caused mostly by a drop in the com-
"mercial aircraft industry.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories in June re-
mained unchanged from May at $269.3 billion. Durable goods
inventories increased 0.3% while nondurable goods inventories
declined 0.5%. Manufacturers' inventories by stage of fabrica-
tion in June showed a somewhat different pattern of change.
Raw materials inventories were down 0.1%, work-in-process
inventories down 0.7%, while finished goods inventories in-
creased 0.9%. The inventory to shipments ratio for June was
1.58 down from 1.61 recorded in May.

The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for July is
scheduled for release on August 21, 1981, and the full report is
scheduled for release on September 1, 1981.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS










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Table 6. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS. INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS--MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG-TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Revisions'

Year Average monthly
te and industry group May- April- March- Feb.- Jan- Dec. 1980- ago June 1980
June 1981 May 1981 April 1981 March 1981 Feb. 1981 Jan. 1981 June June
1980 trough 1976-1980
May 1981


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.................... +2.0 +0.0 +1.0 +0.2 +0.6 +0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4
Durable goods industries...................... +2.1 +0.4 +1.5 +1.0 +1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3
Nondurable goods industries................... +2.0 -0.4 +0.5 -0.7 +0.0 +1.3 0.8 0.5 0.7

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries.................... +0.0 +0.7 +0.4 +0.8 +1.0 +1.5 0.1 0.1 0.2

New orders:
All manufacturing industries.................... +0.9 +0.5 +0.7 +0.2 +0.9 -0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3
Durable goods industries...................... +0.4 +1.1 +0.5 +1.5 +1.5 -2.7 0.3 0.6 0.4
Nondurable goods industries................... +1.5 -0.3 +1.0 -1.1 +0.4 +1.1 0.7 0.5 0.7

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries.......................... +0.0 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 +0.4 +0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Represents zero.
IThe revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the preliminary and final estimates. The monthly averages are
the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign, for the months specified. The advance to final percent change differences to the
durable goods industries are shown in the advance report for the month.




Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventoriesshients ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratiol
Inventories--shipments ratio (months' backlog)
(months' backlog)
Industry group
June May April March Feb. Jan. June May April March Feb. Jan.
1981P 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981P 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981

All manufacturing industries................... 1.58 1.61 1.60 1.61 1.60 1.59 3.63 3.69 3.69 3.68 3.70 3.74

Durable goods industries............................. 2.01 2.05 2.05 2.07 2.09 2.09 4.33 4.40 4.41 4.39 4.42 4.45
Stone, clay, and glass products..................... 1.60 1.56 1.49 1.52 1.51 1.49 0.64 0.61 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.64
Primary metals..................................... 1.96 1.96 2.00 2.09 1.95 1.85 2.42 2.46 2.49 2.56 2.40 2.32
Fabricated metals.................................. 1.87 1.87 1.89 1.88 1.90 1.97 3.09 3.07 3.12 3.10 3.13 3.22
Machinery, except electrical ....................... 2.35 2.39 2.36 2.34 2.39 2.36 4.82 4.86 4.84 4.75 4.84 4.91
Electrical machinery............................... 2.19 2.20 2.25 2.22 2.27 2.30 4.29 4.24 4.32 4.30 4.36 4.44
Transportation equipment............................ 1.89 2.01 2.02 2.07 2.18 2.22 10.20 11.11 11.07 10.54 11.38 11.44
Instruments and related products................... 2.25 2.29 2.38 2.27 2.27 2.31 1.64 1.66 1.71 1.70 1.71 1.74

Nondurable goods industries......................... 1.11 1.13 1.11 1.12 1.09 1.08 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.67
Food and kindred products.......................... 0.96 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.00 0.98 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products.................................. 3.20 3.58 3.33 3.40 3.21 3.43 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products............................. 1.48 1.51 1.56 1.54 1.57 1.58 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products........................... 1.31 1.28 1.26 1.27 1.25 1.29 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products....................... 1.33 1.35 1.33 1.29 1.29 1.27 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products.......................... 0.62 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.54 0.50 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c................ 1.40 1.46 1.43 1.47 1.48 1.36 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)


(NA) Not available. Preliminary.


(X) Not applicable.


lExcludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels, and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.








DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Survey provides broad-based monthly statistical data on eco-
nomic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. It is
designed to measure current industrial activity and to provide
an indication of future trends. The data are used extensively
by the executive branch of the Government in developing eco-
nomic, fiscal, and monetary policy; by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) as components of the gross national product
estimates; and by trade associations, corporate economists, and
other members of the business community as an analytical tool
in their assessment of the current and future economic condition
of the country.
The M3 shipments and inventory data are comparable to the
totals published in the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM).
The ASM is a sample survey of approximately 70,000 manu-
facturing establishments drawn from a 5-year census of manu-
factures universe of about 350,000 manufacturing establish-
ments. In the ASM, each manufacturing location reports data
on value of shipments, beginning and end-of-year inventories,
as well as various other economic variables.
The monthly M3 estimates through 1980 are based on
information obtained from approximately 4,500 reporting units
and include most manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees. In addition, selected smaller companies are included
to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cate-
gories. For firms which operate in a single M3 industry category,
the reporting unit typically comprises all operations of the
company. At the request of the Census Bureau, most large,
diversified companies file separate reports for divisions which
operate in different industrial areas.
Each company or reporting unit of a company in the survey
is classified into 1 of 79 industry categories for which separate
estimates are made based on the major activity of the reporting
unit. Some reporting units include industry activities outside
the M3 category in which they are classified. The survey
methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the
reporting units classified in each industry category effectively
represent the month-to-month movements of the establishments
in the SIC industries which make up the category.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the Census of
Manufactures and the ASM for shipments and inventories. The
most recent benchmark included data for 1977 and 1978. Since
benchmark data for unfilled orders are not available, levels are
based upon the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments of report-
ing companies. In the 1977-1978 benchmark report, unfilled
orders levels were revalued based on unfilled orders to ship-
ments ratios of reporting companies in the monthly M3 survey;
the MA-300, a one-time annual supplemental survey of multi-
establishment companies; and the ASM for single-establishment
companies.

MONTHLY ESTIMATING PROCEDURE

The monthly estimates of shipments, unfilled orders, and
total inventories are derived for each industry category by


multiplying the industry estimate for the previous month by
the percentage change from the previous month for companies
reporting in the current month.
Though collected as a separate item, new orders are not
calculated according to the standard ratio-estimate procedure.
The reason for this is that not all companies report new orders
and some that do report this item limit their reporting to
specific products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
New orders are, therefore, computed by adjusting the current
month's shipments by the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders. (New orders equal current month shipments plus cur-
rent month unfilled orders minus prior month unfilled orders.)
Thus, the estimate of new orders includes orders that are re-
ceived and filled in the same month as well as new orders that
have not yet been filled. Also included are the effects of can-
cellations and modifications on previously reported orders.

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

The monthly data on shipments, inventories, and unfilled
orders are adjusted for seasonality at the most detailed level
tabulated in the survey, using the X-11 variant of the Census
Bureau's seasonal adjustment program. Data from January 1958
through December 1980 are included in the calculations of the
factors used in this publication.
Seasonally adjusted industry aggregates are derived by adding
seasonally adjusted components rather than by direct seasonal
adjustment of the aggregates. New orders data are not inde-
pendently seasonally adjusted but are derived at the most de-
tailed levels from the seasonally adjusted shipments and the
change in the seasonally adjusted unfilled orders and then
similarly aggregated.

EXPLANATION OF TERMS
Value of Shipments-The shipments estimates -published in
the monthly survey are equivalent to value of shipments as re-
ported in the ASM which are net selling values, f.o.b. plant,
after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges
and excise taxes. Included in shipments is the value of all prod-
ucts sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts for contract work performed
for others, resales, receipts for miscellaneous activities such as
the sale of scrap and refuse; value of installation and repair work
performed by employees of the plant; and value of research and
development performed at the plant. In the shipbuilding in-
dustry, the value of shipments in a given time period varies
considerably from the value of work done because of the long
lead time between the input of the materials and labor and the
delivery of the completed ship. For this industry and for aircraft
and missile producers working under cost-plus contracts, the
value of work done during the year is requested rather than the
value of shipments.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and M3 industry








category levels since the products of some four-digit SIC indus-
tries are used as materials by other industries within the same
industry aggregate. The significance of the duplication within
the specific M3 industry categories varies depending on their
four digit industry composition. It is most pronounced in a
few highly integrated industry areas, such as primary metals
and motor vehicles and parts.
For multiunit companies, the M3 reports received each
month typically are not plant reports but are company or divi-
sional level reports that encompass groups of plants. The actual
sales reported are usually net sales and receipts from customers
and exclude the duplication of interplant transfers. The reported
sales are used to calculate month-to-month changes which bring
forward the plant-based shipments for the industry category
as estimated in the ASM.

Inventories-In the monthly survey and in the ASM, respond-
ents are asked to report their inventories at book values. Since
different methods of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO,
etc.), the definition of the value of aggregate inventories for all
plants in an industry is not precise.
There are also some inconsistencies between the M3 com-
pany or divisional reported inventory levels as compared with
the ASM establishment reported levels. The change in the value
of inventories, month-to-month as well as year-to-year, is con-
sidered to have greater significance and reliability.


Inventory data are requested from respondents by stage of
fabrication, i.e., finished goods, work in process, and raw
materials and supplies. However, the quality of these data is
limited due to lower response rates and the inclusion of the
same type of inventory under different stages of fabrication
in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders Received and Unfilled Orders-Orders as re-
ported in the monthly survey are net of cancellations received
during the month on orders previously reported. They include
orders received and filled during the month as well as orders
received for future delivery. They also include the net sales
value of contract changes which increase or decrease the sales
value of the unfilled orders to which they relate. Orders are
defined to include only those supported by binding legal docu-
ments such as signed contracts, letters of award, or letters of
intent, although in some industries this definition may not be
strictly applicable. In the case of letters of intent, the full
amount of the sales value is included if the parties are in sub-
stantial agreement on the amount; otherwise, only the funds
specifically authorized to be expended are included.
Unfilled orders include orders as defined above that have
not been reflected as shipments. Generally, unfilled orders at
the end of the reporting period are equal to unfilled orders
at the beginning of the period plus net new orders received
less net shipments.







j;


















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