Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00183

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text
c3.) 5 :


manufacturers' Shipments,

// Inventories, and Orders


APRIL 1981
*c, /
ce c M3-1(81)-4
/ For Wire Transmission 2:30 P.M. E.D.T. Tuesday, June 2, 1981

(All figures in t eow are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured goods in April declined $1.4
billion or 0.8 percent from March to $163.3 billion the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported
today. Except for a very slight decrease in January, this is the
first decline in orders since the 0.2 percent decrease reported
last June. Most of the decline in the April orders occurred in the
nondurable goods area which was down $1.1 billion or 1.3
percent to $79.4 billion. For most nondurable goods industries,
new orders equals shipments for the month.
New orders for durable goods in April were down $0.3
billion or 0.4 percent to $83.9 billion. The largest decline came
from the fabricated metals products area, where orders dropped
$0.5 billion or 4.7 percent to $10.0 billion. New orders for
transportation equipment were down $0.2 billion or 1.2 percent
to $17.5 billion, as all categories except motor vehicles and
parts reported decreases. New orders for primary metals and
machinery showed little change from last month.
New orders for the nondefense capital goods industries in
April declined $1.0 billion or 4.3 percent to $22.8 billion. Most
of the decline was attributable to the commercial aircraft and
parts industry. Without the aircraft industry, nondefense capital
goods orders were virtually unchanged from March. New orders
for defense capital goods of $4.9 billion also showed little
change from last month as an increase in orders for aircraft
offset declines in the other defense categories.
Shipments of manufactured goods in April were valued at
$162.3 billion, down $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent from March. A
billion dollar decline in nondurable goods shipments more than
offset the $0.8 billion increase in deliveries of durable goods.
The decrease in nondurable goods shipments was due to large
declines reported by the chemical and petroleum products
industries. Shipments of chemicals dropped $0.7 billion or 4.9
percent to $14.7 billion, while petroleum products shipments
declined $0.5 billion or 3.0 percent to $15.9 billion.


In the durable goods area, most industries reported small
increases in shipments. The only large gains were in steel
shipments, up $0.4 billion or 7.0 percent from March and motor
vehicle and parts shipments, up $0.8 billion or 7.7 percent to
$10.7 billion. This is the third consecutive monthly increase in
automotive shipments.
The value of manufacturers' unfilled orders rose $1.1 billion
or 0.4 percent in April to $296.1 billion. Although most
industries showed small increases, the largest percentage gain
occurred in the steel industry where the orders backlog
increased $0.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $18.7 billion. Within the
capital goods categories, the orders backlog of nondefense
capital goods producers was valued at $134.6 billion, unchanged
from March. Unfilled orders for defense capital goods increased
$0.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $64.2 billion.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories in April was
$254.8 billion, up $1.4 billion or 0.5 percent from March. This
is the smallest 1-month increase reported this year, as the value
of inventories rose 1.6 percent in January, 1.1 percent in
February, and 0.9 percent in March. The December 1980
increase was 0.2 percent. The value for inventories of electrical
machinery producers in April increased $0.5 billion or 2.2
percent to $23.3 billion, while those of nonelectrical machinery
producers increased $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $39.3 billion.
The inventory to shipments ratio for April was 1.57, up from
1.56 in March.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for May is
scheduled for release on June 19, 1981, and the full report is
scheduled for release on June 30, 1981.


NOTICE

The next benchmark report in this series (M3-1.10) is tentatively scheduled for release in mid-June. rhis report will include
revisions to the shipments and inventory series to reflect adjustments to the 1977 Census and 1978 Annual Survey of Manu-
factures and a recomputation of the factors used to seasonally adjust the individual series.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per ,ear


-7


ofs 0o




U.S. Department of Comrn
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS








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Table 6. PERCENT CHANGES AND REVISIONS FOR MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Percent changes Revisions'

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change1 Average monthly
Item and industry group Year ago
Mar.- Feb.- Jan.- First Fourth Third May 1980 Apr. Apr. 1980
Apr. Mar. Feb. quarter quarter quarter through 1980 through 1976-1980
1981 1981 1981 1981 1980 1980 Apr. 1981 Mar. 1981


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries ......... -0.1 +0.5 +0.3 +0.7 +1.4 +2.6 +1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1
Durable goods industries........... +1.0 +1.2 +1.0 +0.8 +1.5 +3.5 +1.2 0.1 0.3 1.2
Nondurable goods industries........ -1.2 -0.1 -0.4 +0.5 +1.3 +1.7 +0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries ......... +0.5 +0.9 +1.1 +1.2 +0.1 +0.4 0.2 0.2

New orders:
All manufacturing industries ......... -0.8 +1.2 +0.4 +0.5 +1.5 +3.9 +1.1 0.3 0.4 0.2
Durable goods industries ........... -0.4 +2.4 +1.1 +0.6 +1.5 +5.9 +1.2 0.0 0.6 0.2
Nondurable goods industries........ -1.3 -0.1 -0.3 +0.4 +1.4 +1.9 +0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries............. +0.4 +0.8 +0.4 0.5 +0.6 +0.5 +0.3 0.3 0.1

'Method of calculation of these percentages for the quarter and the 12-month time intervals reflect compounded monthly growth rates.
2The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the preliminary and final estimates. The monthly averages are the
simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign, for the months specified. The advance to final percent change differences for the durable
goods industries are shown in the advance report for the month.
Represents zero.


Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventories--shipments ratio Unfilled orders--shipments ratio'
(months' backlog)
Industry group
Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan.
1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981

All manufacturing industries........................... 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 3.47 3.45 3.48 3.51

Durable goods industries...................................... 2.03 2.03 2.05 2.06 4.15 4.12 4.15 4.18
Stone, clay, and glass products............................ 1.37 1.41 1.36 1.35 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.61
Primary metals............................................. 1.81 1.84 1.72 1.68 2.48 2.50 2.33 2.33
Fabricated metals........................................... 1.89 1.89 1.93 1.99 2.95 2.96 2.98 3.07
Machinery, except electrical ............................... 2.53 2.51 2.55 2.48 4.11 4.05 4.10 4.04
Electrical machinery........................................ 2.09 2.05 2.09 2.11 3.75 3.72 3.76 3.79
Transportation equipment.................................... 2.12 2.18 2.36 2.37 12.1/ 11.79 13.32 13.31
Instruments and related products........................... 2.39 2.23 2.25 2.30 1.74 1.67 1.69 1.74

Nondurable goods industries................................... 1.09 1.08 1.05 1.03 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68
Food and kindred products................................... 0.95 0.97 0.96 0.94 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products............................................ 2.92 3.10 2.88 3.13 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products .................................... 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.46 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products................................... 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products.............................. 1.35 1.26 1.28 1.23 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products................................ 0.64 0.62 0.55 0.51 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c........................ 1.32 1.35 1.33 1.23 (x) (X) (X) (X)


(NA) Not available.


PPreliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.


Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels, and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.







The following is a description of the survey and deliirit ,n,
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.

DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the nost recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital exr.,-ndhures. and inventories as w.i- as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the' Standard industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all m..,iuf:..ii nr;r companies with 1,000 or more
employees and ,_ddi.r-.,Il medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. Tha
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category ,.i. civi,-i' represent the month-to month movements
of the -:IabihrrT.r!,. in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M- series is ....ioi ll-, benchmark, to the ASM tor
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was foi
1974 through 1976. In the absence of benchmark oata for un-
filled orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the
ratio of un ll,. I orders to sales for companies reporting in the
M3. These levels were reset as of December 1973. Historical
data, 1967-1978, including the seasonally adjusted series, re-
flecting seasonal factors based on data ,ir.-.,gh December 1978,
are published in the M3-1.8 report issued in August V'-i.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations pirir rily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of ii,,j,,,,.il and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general -iiji .r, of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the ,I:,rn i.i.r of unfilled orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
.11 i i..il orders data p,mat. ,' apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change n unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer imitations than the unfilled orders estimates.





EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
ar- received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
fo(r miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the innut of the materials
ird labor and the shipments of the completed ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the ail manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories ,pically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
n manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the .r,.ci'ic M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company illings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual esTab'ish
ment reports, it is assumed that the month to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.






Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in delniton to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since dvtllr,.nt methods
of ,nventor' valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
defniton of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
indusir is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


13
change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.








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