Current industrial reports

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00180

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text

...--.--CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS

:\ Manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders
APR 20 1981

\ JANUARY 1981
4- M3-1 (81)-
:z' t. For Wire Transmission 2:30 P.M. E.S.T. Wednesday March 4,1981

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.)


New orders for manufactured products in January declined
$0.5 billion or 0.3 percent from December to $161.6 billion the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today.
This is the first decline in new orders since the 4-month series of
declines recorded in February through May of last year.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January were
down $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $81.1 billion. The largest
decline was reported in the primary metals category, where steel
orders dropped $1.6 billion or 24 percent to $5.2 billion. This
is the third consecutive monthly decline for that industry
and the largest reported since a 27 percent drop in March 1975.
The volume of steel orders for January 1980 was $5.8 billion
and January 1979, $7.3 billion.
The other major decline in durable goods new orders came
from the transportation equipment industry, which decreased
$1.1 billion or 6.3 percent to $16.1 billion. Most of the drop
was caused by declines in the shipbuilding and motor vehicle
industries.
New orders for machinery showed a large increase for January.
Electrical and nonelectrical machinery orders were up 7.8
percent and 7.4 percent, respectively, with nearly all types
of machinery showing order increases.
Within the capital goods industries, new orders for non-
defense capital goods were up $2.2 billion or 10.3 percent to
$23.9 billion, reflecting both machinery and commercial aircraft
order increases. Orders for defense capital goods dropped 29
percent following a 31 percent increase last month.
Shipments of manufactured goods in January increased $1.8
billion or 1.1 percent to $161.1 billion. The increase in the
petroleum industry of $2.0 billion or 12.8 percent to $17.3
billion more than offset declines reported by many durable and
nondurable industries. The largest declines within the durable
goods category were in steel shipments, down $0.5 billion or
7.0 percent to $6.2 billion; and motor vehicles, down $0.3


billion or 3.3 percent to $9.3 billion. Within the nondurable
goods category, shipments by the chemical industry were
down $0.6 billion or 3.8 percent to $15.0 billion, following a
10.4 percent increase in December.
Manufacturers' backlog of orders showed a small increase
for the month of $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $291.3 billion.
The only significant increases occurred in the machinery cate-
gories where the unfilled orders level for the nonelectrical
category increased $0.8 billion or 1.4 percent, and for the
electrical category $0.8 billion or 1.9 percent. The backlog
of steel orders declined in January $1.0 billion or 5.3 percent.
The book value of manufacturers' inventories in January rose
$4.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $249.0 billion. This is the largest
1-month percentage increase since the 2.3 percent recorded
in December 1974. Within the durable goods categories,
industries showing increases of greater than 3.0 percent were
aircraft, up $1.2 billion or 5.1 percent; steel, up $0.4 billion
or 3.3 percent; and motor vehicles, up $0.2 billion or 3.2
percent. Within the nondurable goods category, 5 of the 10
major industries reported increases larger than 3.0 percent.
By stage of fabrication, both the raw materials and work in
process categories increased significantly. The value of raw
materials rose 2.3 percent, while work in process went up 2.7
percent. The value of finished goods inventories increased
only 0.3 percent.
The figures on the durable goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for February
is scheduled for release on March 20, 1981, and the full report
is scheduled for release on March 31, 1981.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or call
Ruth Runyan or Kathleen Swindell. (301) 763-2502.
For sale by Customer Services (DUSD) Bureau of the Census, Washington. D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce district office. Postage
stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money order or by a draft on a
U.S. bank. Price, 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.








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Table 6. PERCENT CHANGES AND REVISION RATES OF MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Percent changes Revision rate'

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change1 Year ago Average monthly
Item and industry group
Dec. 1980- Nov.- Oct.- Fourth Third Second Jan. 1980- Jan. Jan.- Jan.
Jan. 1981 Dec. Nov. quarter quarter quarter Jan. 1981 1980 1976-1980
Jan. 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 Jan. 1981 1980 198 1976-1980


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries......... +1.1 +1.0 40.7 +1.4 +2.6 -1.9 +0.5 +0.4 0.3 0.3
Durable goods Industries........... +0.4 +0.4 +0.3 +1.5 +3.5 -3.1 +0.3 +0.3 0.3 0.6
Nondurable goods industries........ +1.8 +1.7 +1.0 +1.3 +1.7 -0.7 +0.7 +0.4 0.5 0.5

Inventories:
All manufacturing industries......... +1.9 +0.2 +0.5 +0.1 -0.0 +0.7 +0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2

New orders:
All manufacturing industries......... -0.3 +2.1 -0.5 +1.5 +3.9 -3.0 +0.3 +0.7 0.3 0.6
Durable goods industries........... -1.9 +2.0 +0.4 +1.5 +5.9 -5.0 -0.0 +0.7 0.5 0.9
Nondurable goods industries........ +1.3 +2.3 +0.5 +1.4 +1.9 -1.1 +0.7 +0.6 0.5 0.6

Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries............. +0.3 +0.9 +0.5 +0.6 +0.5 -0.5 40.3 +0.1 0.1 0.2

'Method of calculation of these percentages for the quarter and the 12-month time intervals reflect compounded monthly growth rates.
2Represents the revision in the percentage change between the preliminary and final estimates. The revision rates between the advance and final
estimates for durable goods industries are shown in the advance report for the month.


Table 7. RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Inventories--shpments ratio Unfilled orders -shipments ratio1
Inventories--shients ratio (months' backlog)
Industry group
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct.
1981 1980 1980 1980 1981 1980 1980 1980

All manufacturing industries........................... 1.55 1.53 1.55 1.55 3.52 3.52 3.51 3.51

Durable goods industries...................................... 2.05 2.02 2.02 2.01 4.18 4.18 4.17 4.18
Stone, clay, and glass products ............................ 1.34 1.33 1.37 1.40 0.60 0.62 0.66 0.68
Primary metals.............................................. 1.66 1.61 1.64 1.70 2.34 2.44 2.48 2.52
Fabricated metals........................................... 1.96 1.88 1.90 1.88 3.04 2.96 2.99 3.02
Machinery, except electrical............................... 2.50 2.60 2.64 2.62 4.08 4.20 4.21 4.17
Electrical machinery ....................................... 2.13 2.13 2.04 2.06 3.81 3.82 3.66 3.62
Transportation equipment.................................... 2.37 2.22 2.14 2.09 13.34 12.83 12.61 12.48
Instruments and related products........................... 2.30 2.26 2.33 2.31 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.71

Nondurable goods industries................................... 1.04 1.04 1.07 1.07 0.68 0.70 0.69 0.71
Food and kindred products................................... 0.93 0.95 0.98 0.99 (x) (X) (x) (X)
Tobacco products........................................... 3.06 2.79 3.22 3.02 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products....................................... 1.50 1.55 1.49 1.48 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products................................... 1.25 1.21 1.24 1.23 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products...... ....................... 1.28 1.19 1.32 1.30 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products................................ 0.50 0.55 0.53 0.57 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c........................ 1.26 1.25 1.15 1.18 (X) (X) (X) (X)


(NA) Not available.


Preliminary. rRevised. (X) Not applicable.


Excludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels, and drums; farm
machinery and equipment; motor vehicle assembly operation; other transportation equipment; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related
products; building paper; die-cut paper and board; chemicals; petroleum and coal products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.








The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those
definitions previously employed.

DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey
(M3-1) provides monthly figures that are comparable to the
annual totals published each year in the Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM). The ASM is a probability sample of
approximately 70,000 manufacturing establishments drawn
from the most recent 5-year census universe of about 312,000
establishments. In the ASM, each manufacturing establishment
provides data on employment, payrolls, shipments, cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and inventories as well as other
selected items. Until 1976, the ASM did not compile inform-
ation on unfilled orders or new orders. Since the ASM is
establishment based, it provides data for each of the 425
manufacturing industries in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) system and area data for industry groups.
The estimates presented in the M3 report are based on a
sample panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units, consisting
of virtually all manufacturing companies with 1,000 or more
employees and additional medium-sized companies that
strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry cells. The
reporting unit for many medium- or single-line companies
comprises all operations of the company. Many of the larger
diversified companies file separate divisional reports for their
operations in different industries, although this divisional
reporting is not followed by all large companies.
Each reporting unit in the monthly panel is classified into
one of 79 industry classifications for tabulation. Many of the
reporting units included mixed industry activity even within the
broad industry categories of the monthly survey. However, the
survey estimating procedure assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry
category effectively represent the month-to-month movements
of the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. This ratio estimating procedure is used for all items
compiled in the survey except for new orders which is discussed
separately below.
The M3 series is periodically benchmarked to the ASM for
shipments and inventories. The most recent benchmark was for
1974 through 1976. In the absence of benchmark data for un-
filled orders, levels were set in August 1962 based upon the
ratio of unfilled orders to sales for companies reporting in the
M3. These levels were reset as of December 1973. Historical
data, 1967-1978, including the seasonally adjusted series, re-
flecting seasonal factors based on data through December 1978,
are published in the M3-1.8 report issued in August 1979.
The M3 data are subject to some limitations primarily
resulting from the relatively small sample used to develop the
estimates and the use of divisional and company reports to
extrapolate establishment based data. Precise measurement of
these limitations based on estimates of the sampling errors is
not available. In addition to the general limitations of M3 survey
data, the estimated levels of unfilled orders are subject to
further limitations due to the assumptions made in developing
these levels, the definition of unfilled orders, and response


difficulties. These limitations are discussed in greater detail on
pages i-iv in the introductory chapter of the latest benchmark
publication mentioned above. Generally, the limitations to the
unfilled orders data primarily apply to the absolute level of
unfilled orders and, to a much lesser extent, to the month-to-
month change in unfilled orders. Since this month-to-month
change in unfilled orders is used to develop the monthly
estimates of new orders, the estimates of new orders are subject
to fewer limitations than the unfilled orders estimates.




EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for other, resales, receipts
for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by employees of
the plant; and value of research and development performed at
the plant. In the ship building industry the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value of shipments
because of the long lead time between the input of the materials
and labor and the shipments of the corrpleted ship. In the
annual survey, therefore, the value of work done during the year
is requested rather than the value of shipments. Value of work
done is also reported by aircraft and missile producers working
on cost-plus contracts.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM
contain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the
exception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit
SIC group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for all the
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the dupli-
cation within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from the division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside
customers. Although this definition of shipments in the
monthly reports differs from that used in the annual establish-
ment reports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in
company sales in the industry are representative of the
month-to-month shipments of the establishments in the indus-
try.








Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the
definition of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an
industry is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories
from one period to the next are of greater significance than the
actual aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.

New Orders and Unfilled Orders-The unfilled orders shown
in this publication represent the net sales value of goods on
order which have not been shipped. They are net of cancell-
ations and include all adjustments resulting from contract


change documents. Only those orders supported by binding
legal documents such as signed contracts or letter contracts are
included. Some large defense contracts are authorized and
funded in several stages. Only the funded portion of such
contracts are included in these figures.
New orders are not calculated according to the standard ratio
estimate procedure, even though they are collected as a separate
item. The reason for this is that not all companies report new
orders, and some that do limit their reporting to specific
products for which long lead times are required in the
production cycle. These companies, in effect, exclude new
orders received for products that are shipped from inventory.
To take advantage of the higher response rate for shipments
data and to include orders filled from inventory, new orders are
computed by adding the change in the backlog of unfilled
orders to the current month's shipments. Thus, the estimate of
new orders includes orders that are received and filled in the
same month as well as orders that have not yet been filled. The
estimate also includes the effects of cancellations and modifica-
tions of previously existing contracts.
Seasonally adjusted new orders are similarly derived from the
monthly change in the seasonally adjusted backlog of unfilled
orders and seasonally adjusted shipments. Many nondurable
goods industries and some durable goods industries have no
backlog of unfilled orders. Shipments are used as the estimate of
new orders in these industries.









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