Current industrial reports

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Material Information

Title:
Current industrial reports
Portion of title:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders
Physical Description:
v. : ; 28-29 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of the Census. -- Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch
United States -- Bureau of the Census
Publisher:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, the Bureau of the Census :
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
March 1968
Publication Date:
Frequency:
monthly, with annual summary[1976-]
monthly[ former 1963-1975]
monthly
normalized irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Manufacturing industries -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Inventories -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Additional Physical Form:
Also distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.
Additional Physical Form:
Some monthly issues also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website as: Highlights from the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Address as of 12/17/03: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/priorrel.htm; current access available via PURL.
Additional Physical Form:
Some annual summaries also available via Internet from the Census Bureau website. Address as of 12/8/2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/m3-1.html; current access available via PURL.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Oct. 1963-
Numbering Peculiarities:
Some annual summaries issued in revised editions.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Each annual summary cumulates previous issues for a period of prior years, i.e., annual summaries for <1976>-197 cumulate from 1958.
Issuing Body:
Prepared by: Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Manufactures' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch, 1963-1964; issued by: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, <2000->
General Note:
Title from cover.
General Note:
Some issues not distributed to depository libraries in a tangible format.
General Note:
Paper copy no longer sold by Supt. of Docs., U.S.G.P.O.
General Note:
Latest issue consulted: July 2002.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001320832
notis - AGH1708
oclc - 02548418
lccn - 74614399
issn - 0364-1880
Classification:
lcc - HD9724 .U52a
ddc - 380.1/0973
System ID:
AA00008477:00174

Related Items

Preceded by:
Industry survey
Preceded by:
Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders

Full Text
3, C "r [ '/17 -7


Manufacturers' Shipments,

/ 0% Inventories, and Orders


4r7 "O/ SEPTEMBER 1977
U.S. Department of Commerce For Release 2:00 P.M. November 3, 1977
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Series: M3-1(77)-9


All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.


New orders for manufactured products in September showed a
small increase of 0.4 percent or $0.5 billion to $112.0 billion
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported
today. New orders for durable goods rose 0.9 percent or $0.5
billion and new orders for nondurables, were unchanged at
$53.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured products showed a
slight increase ($0.2 billion or 0.2 percent) as a $0.4 billion
increase in durable goods was partially offset by a $0.2 billion
decline in nondurable goods. Inventories held by manufacturers
rose $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $176.4 billion. Inventories
held by producers of nondurable goods rose $0.9 billion and ac-
counted for three-fourths of the increase, while inventories of
durable goods producers rose $0.4 billion.

New orders for nondefense capital goods rose $1.3 billion or
8.7 percent to $16.0 billion. (In the Advance Report, based
on limited reporting, new orders were shown as increasing
$0.9 billion or 6.3 percent to $15.6 billion.) The revised
September increase is the largest month-to-month increase since
the 9.3 percent increase reported in July 1976. Several in-
dustries contributed to the increase including the nondefense
portions of the communication equipment, aircraft parts, and
shipbuilding industries, and also the railroad equipment in-
dustry. On a quarterly basis, however, new orders for nondefense
capital goods declined slightly owing to a 7.2 percent decline in
July. Quarterly totals for 1977 are: first quarter, $43.4 billion;
second quarter, $45.2 billion; and third quarter, $45.0 billion.
September new orders for the defense capital goods industries
declined 18 percent or $0.4 billion to $1.6 billion. (In the
Advance Report, new orders for defense capital goods were re-
ported as $1.9 billion or 5.5 percent below August.) Since this
series is greatly affected by large defense orders, both the
month-to-month changes and the revisions show substantially
greater variability than most other series in this report.

The $0.4 billion rise in shipments of durable goods arose
largely from a $0.4 billion or 3.3 percent increase in shipments
of transportation equipment. Increases of $0.2 billion in fab-
ricated metals and $0.1 billion in primary metals were nearly


matched by a $0.2 billion decline in nonelectrical machinery.
In nondurable goods industries, where shipments declined by
$0.2 billion or 0.4 percent, a $0.4 billion decline in foods and a
$0.1 billion decline in the paper industries were only partially
offset by a $0.3 billion increase in chemicals.

Inventories have nt from $166.6 billion in
December 1976/ 4.7 II September 1977. As a
result, the rat*j' w< entries nts has remained vir-
tually unchar ~.59 in December d 1.58 in September
1977. The i ies contributing th ~ t to the $1.3 billion
inventory i se in September w ods, $0.5 billion;
fabricated are s, $0.2 billion; and icals, $0.2 billion.

As indica i past reports, the I adjustment factors
used to adju S dividual defe es on backlog of un-
filled orders ha e difi a to account the change
in the fiscal ye a yT(I)rt eral Government These
modified factors, whi uced in the July report, will
continue to be used until a sufficient amount of data are avail-
able to assess the impact of the change in fiscal year. In addition,
a special seasonal adjustment procedure is used for the July,
August, and September figures for the motor vehicle assembly
series. These adjustments and procedures are expalined more
fully in the footnotes to Tables 1 and 2.



SCHEDULED RELEASE DATES

The figures on the durable' goods industries in this report
supersede those issued earlier in the advance report on durable
goods. The present report is based on more complete reporting,
but the estimates are also considered preliminary. Final figures
will appear as historical data in the report to be published for
next month. The advance report on durable goods for October
is scheduled for release on November 21, 1977 and the full
report is scheduled for release on December 1, 1.977.


Address inquiries concerning these figures to U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division, Washington, D.C. 20233, or
call William Menth, (301) 763-2502.
For sale by the Subscriber Services Section (Publications), Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, or any U.S. Department of Commerce
district office. Postage stamps not acceptable; currency submitted at sender's risk. Remittances from foreign countries must be by international money
order or by a draft on a U.S. bank. Price 30 cents per copy, $3.60 per year.


CURRENT INDUSTRIAL REPORTS








Table 1.--VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP

(Millions of dollars)

Shipments Total inventories

Without seasonal Without seasonal
Industry group Seasonally adjusted Withadustmental Seasonally adjusted adjusteasonal

Sept. Aug. Julyr Sept. Aug. July Sept. Aug. July Sept. Aug. July
1977P 1977 1977 1977w 1977r 19777 1977P 1977r 1 19r 1977P 1977r 1977


All manufacturing indus-
t ries:
Total................... 1
Total, excluding trans-
portation..............
Total for industries
with unfilled orders...

Durable goods industries, total.

Durable goods with unfilled
orders.........................

Stone, clay, and glass products.

Primary metals, total.........
Blast furnaces, steel mills.
Nonferrous and
other primary metals.......

Fabricated metal products
total ........................
Metal cans, barrels, and
drums......................

Machinery, except electrical,
t-t il ........................
F": i. r. rm rr r.- ......
Farm machinery and equipment.
Construction, mining, and
material handling equipment.
Metalworking machinery......
General industrial -i .r, r

Electrical machinery, pial...
Electrical transmission ond
distribution equipment and
industrial apparatus.......
Household appliances ........
Radio and TV................
Communication equipment.....

Transportation equipment, total'
Motor vehicles and parts2...
Aircraft, missiles, and
parts ......................
Shipbuilding and military
tank vehicles..............

Instruments and related
products, total..............
Scientific and engineering..
Photographic goods..........

All other durable goods
industries...................

Nondurable goods industries,
total................ ..........

Nondurable goods with unfilled
orders.........................

Food and kindred products,
total........................
Meat products...............
Fats and oils...............

Tobacco products..............
Textile mill products .........

Paper and allied products,
total........................
Pulp, paper, etc............
Paperboard containers .......
All other paper containers..

Chemicals and allied products,
total........................
Industrial chemcials, except
pigments...................
Drugs, soap, and toiletries.

Petroleum and coal products...
Rubber and plastics products,
n.e.c........................
All other nondurable goods
industries...................
See footnotes at end of table.


11,585

97,955

58,120

58,509


46,253

2,961

8,420
4,380

3,076


7,480

665


10,287
914
804

1,955
598
959

6,933


1,317
954
483
1,894

13,630
9,407

2,813

578


2,283
1,342
760


6,515


111,376

98,183

57,680

58,087


45,693

3,080

8,281
4,273

3,073


7,303

656


109,208

95,660

56,433

56,820


44,856

2,906

8,174
4,248

3,011


6,972

627


:0 o .

"1- 817

1,866 1,844
,412 591
991/ 855

6,912 6,900


1,370
924
483
1,817

13,193
9,195

2,680

565


2,339
1,364
788


6,514


53,076 53,289


11,867 11,987


15,321
3,923
1,490

715
3,578


4,409
1,929
1,007
1,473


9,497

3,277
2,335

8,058

3,123

8,375


15,768
3,958
1,494

708
3,537


4,548
1,964
1,045
1,539


9,206

3,058
2,172

8,073

3,070

8,379


1,351
943
489
1,811

13,548
9,403

2,719

626


2,280
1,355
737


6,003


52,388


11,577


15,513
3,863
1,747

676
3,423


4,433
1,947
961
1,525


9,064

2,941
2,277

8,080

3,010

8,189


116,422

102,293

60,704

61,227


48,267

3,193

8,522
4,358

3,171


7,917

750


10,573
983
833

1,963
618
982

7,386


1,394
1,028
577
1,884

14,129
9,767

2,897

587


2,459
1,420
831


7,048


55,195


12,437


16,048
3,970
1,527

710
3,822


4,556
1,930
1,050
1,576


9,766

3,238
2,639

8,106

3,222

8,965


109,894

98,616

56,787

55,768


44,632

3,281

7,991
4,154

2,932


7,438

784


9,716
814
798

1,827
539
939

6,780


1,315
968
504
1,727

11,278
7,455

2,487

548


2,313
1,329
797


6,971


54,126


12,155


15,774
4,029
1,510

749
3,640


4,675
2,018
1,082
1,575


9,319

3,159
2,279

8,122

3,109

8,738


102,201

90,026

51,809

52,379


41,070

2,856

7,483
3,882

2,779


6,600

712


9,137
775
695

1,779
514
803

6,236


1,168
939
392
1,672

12,175
8,207

2,563

599


2,100
1,236
712


5,792


49,822


10,739


14,706
3,782
1,609

689
2,988


4,220
1,887
922
1,411


8,552

2,961
1,997

8,122

2,812

7,733


176,397

155,967

117,255

111,832


102,735

4,365

17,647
10,324

6,246


175,104

154,549

117,019

111,452


102,461

4,314

17,759
10,519

6,213


13,973 13,763

1,286 1,286


25,250
2,111
2,457

5,516
1,629
2,699

15,503


3,049
1,687
880
4,952

20,430
6,940

10,407

1,429


4,925
3,160
1,315


9,739


64,565


14,520


16,579
1,348
1,447

3,687
5,411


5,635
2,173
1,451
2,011


13,943

3,992
4,185

5,847

4,165

9,298


25,148
2,092
2,452

5,429
1,617
2,662

15,379


3,038
1,701
869
4,844

20,555
7,112

10,445

1,410


4,878
3,088
1,346


9,656


63,652


14,558


16,120
1,348
1,539

3,561
5,461


5,649
2,173
1,467
2,009


13,746

4,053
4,064

5,686

4,137

9,292


174,571

154,194

116,608

110,978


101,960

4,321

17,819
10,591

6,216


13,682

1,293


25,018
2,102
2,439

5,387
1,608
2,647

15,250


3,073
1,663
859
4,794

20,377
7,079

10,390

1,389


4,839
3,074
1,306


9,672


63,593


14,648


16,127
1,394
1,827

3,647
5,464


5,625
2,146
1,476
2,003


13,549

3,987
4,000

5,654

4,112

9,415


174,401

153,839

116,260

110,785


101,869

4,258

17,364
10,180

6,159


13,863

1,215


24,831
2,084
2,354

5,378
1,626
2,640

15,313


3,030
1,610
899
4,873

20,562
7,162

10,367

1,405


4,907
3,119
1,334


9,687


173,730

153,335

116,402

110,656


101,719

4,286

17,486
10,288

6,195


13,828

1,282


24,795
2,075
2,386

5,326
1,619
2,641

15,315


3,018
1,652
921
4,781

20,395
7,098

10,371

1,364


4,906
3,078
1,370


9,645


63,616 63,074


14,391 14,683


16,314
1,284
1,123

3,477
5,334


5,557
2,129
1,450
1,978


13,617

3,912
4,131

5,942

4,068

9,307


15,751
1,280
1,294

3,309
5,473


5,648
2,159
1,486
2,003


13,543

3,976
4,081

5,780

4,092

9,478


172,902

153,221

115,891

110,110


101,065

4,367

17,694
10,422

6,272


13,790

1,349


24,810
2,080
2,410

5,311
1,598
2,652

15,200


3,029
1,680
890
4,694

19,681
6,605

10,218

1,361


4,874
3,068
1,343


9,694


62,792


14,826


15,479
1,362
1,662

3,267
5,523


5,644
2,138
1,494
2,012


13,480

3,931
4,100

5,671

4,075

9,653








Table 1.--VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP--Continued

(Millions of dollars)

New orders Unfilled orders

Without seasonal Without seasonal
Industry group Seasonally adjusted Witout me al Seasonally adjusted Withoadjustmental


Sept. Aug. July Sept. Aug. July Sept. Aug. July Sept. Aug. July
1977P 1977' 1977' 1977P 1977 1977r 1977 1977r 1977r 1977 1977 1977

All manufacturing indus-
tries:
Total................... 111,979 111,494 108,598 116,508 111,036 103,311 183,046 182,646 182,541 183,855 183,774 182,632
Total, excluding trans-
portation............... 98,938 99,077 95,931 102,499 99,956 91,091 129,059 128,071 127,190 129,543 129,339 128,002
Total for industries
with unfilled orders... 58,514 57,798 55,823 60,790 57,929 52,919 -

Durable goods industries, total. 58,774 58,270 56,031 61,360 57,107 53,317 174,516 174,245 174,072 175,452 175,322 173,984

Durable goods with unfilled
orders.......................... 46,518 45,876 44,067 48,400 45,971 42,008 -

Primary metals, total......... 8,618 8,576 8,311 8,121 8,423 7,495 17,833 17,634 17,342 17,255 17,657 17,225

Blast furnaces, steel mills. 4,526 4,382 4,316 4,114 4,409 3,906 11,493 11,347 11,239 11,148 11,393 11,138
Nonferrous and other
primary metal products..... 3,098 3,234 3,057 2,986 3,082 2,729 5,063 5,040 4,880 4,840 5,025 4,875

Fabricated metal products ..... 7,252 7,346 6,798 8,066 7,461 6,636 22,994 23,222 23,179 23,598 23,448 23,428

Machinery, except electrical,
total........................ 10,806 10,897 10,130 10,748 10,287 9,369 45,940 45,420 44,988 45,876 45,701 45,130

Engines and turbines ........ 1,263 1,003 1,062 1,114 845 846 16,628 16,278 16,204 16,429 16,299 16,268
Construction, mining, and
material handling equipment. 1,977 2,035 1,753 1,934 1,948 1,750 6,432 6,410 6,241 6,451 6,480 6,360
Metalworking machinery...... 706 661 645 707 659 585 3,363 3,256 3,207 3,417 3,327 3,207
General industrial machinery. 928 934 844 998 1,012 765 6,719 6,750 6,806 6,752 6,736 6,663

Electrical machinery, total... 7,036 6,973 6,901 7,531 7,094 6,642 24,660 24,556 24,500 25,021 24,875 24,561

Electrical transmission and
distribution equipment and
industrial apparatus ....... 1,379 1,327 1,279 1,430 1,306 1,189 5,887 5,825 5,869 5,940 5,903 5,911
Household appliances ........ 949 871 983 1,015 943 994 323 328 381 359 372 398
Radio and TV................. 339 715 478 423 758 412 499 643 412 554 708 454
Communication equipment..... 1,954 1,605 1,913 2,084 1,681 1,922 11,514 11,455 11,668 11,629 11,430 11,476

Transportation equipment,
total........................ 13,041 12,417 12,667 14,009 11,080 12,220 53,987 54,575 55,351 54,312 54,435 54,630

Aircraft, missiles, and
parts...................... 2,524 2,183 2,123 3,045 2,491 2,734 36,641 36,928 37,425 36,866 36,719 36,713
Shipbuilding and military
tank vehicles.............. 368 243 438 381 95 399 8,359 8,570 8,891 8,283 8,490 8,942

All other durable goods
industries................... 12,021 12,601 11,224 12,885 12,762 10,955 9,102 8,838 8,712 9,390 9,206 9,010

Nondurable goods industries,
total............................ 53,205 53,224 52,567 55,148 53,929 49,994 8,530 8,401 8,469 8,403 8,452 8,648

Industries with unfilled
orders........................ 11,996 11,922 11,756 12,390 11,958 10,911 8,530 8,401 8,469 8,403 8,452 8,648
Industries without unfilled
orders....................... 41,209 41,302 40,811 42,758 41,971 39,083 -

Represents zero. Preliminary. rRevised.
'Adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations.
2 Motor vehicles and parts--During July, August, and September, motor vehicle assembly plants are closed down to allow for retooling for
the forthcoming model year. Year-to-year variations in both the timing and duration of the model changeover period are sufficiently great
that the normal seasonal adjustment procedures do not adequately identify the seasonality during the period and may introduce substantial
erratic movements. To compensate for this, the estimated seasonally adjusted quarterly average is used for the seasonally adjusted data in
each of the three months. The unadjusted data, however, are not subject to any special adjustments. This series accounts for about two-
thirds of the published motor vehicles and parts shipments and about 40 percent of the published transportation equipment shipments.









Table 2.--VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS. INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS, FOR MARKET CATEGORIES AND SUPPLEMENTARY SERIES
(Millions of dollars)
Without seasonal Without seasonal
Seasonally adjusted Wit seasonal Seasonally adjusted Wit ussonal
adjustment' y adjustment
Industry group
Sept. Aug. July Sept Aug. July Sept Aug. July Sept Aug. July
1977 1977r 1977r 977 1977 1977 1977 977r 1977 1977 1977 1977r

Shipments Total inventories

All manufacturing industries, total.. 111,585 111,376 109,208 116,422 109,894 102,201 176,397 175,104 174,571 174,401 173,730 172,902

Durable goods industries, total........... 58,509 58,087 56,820 61,227 55,768 52,379 111,832 111,452 110,978 110,785 110,656 110,110
Nondurable goods industries, total......... 53,076 53,289 52,388 55,195 54,126 49,822 64,565 63,652 63,593 63,616 63,074 62,792

Industry groups arranged by market
categories:
Home goods and apparel.................... 8,988 8,898 8,716 9,863 9,645 8,007 14,681 14,708 14,699 14,522 14,774 14,948
Consumer staples........................... 19,301 19,638 19,065 20,326 19,694 18,089 25,061 24,217 23,962 24,862 23,895 23,225
Equipment and defense products, except
automotive.............................. 15,124 15,244 14,830 15,600 14,381 13,735 41,271 40,901 40,701 40,705 40,435 40,302
Automotive equipment....................... 11,187 10,959 11,105 11,739 9,315 9,937 9,166 9,298 9,189 9,341 9,260 8,705
Construction materials, supplies, and
intermediate products..................... 10,134 9,985 9,480 10,791 10,574 9,432 14,753 14,462 14,465 14,638 14,507 14,527
Other materials and supplies and
intermediate products..................... 46,851 46,652 46,012 48,103 46,285 43,001 71,465 71,518 71,555 70,333 70,859 71,195

Supplementary series:2
Household durable goods industries....... 3,747 3,688 3,507 4,162 3,913 3,106 7,543 7,559 7,487 7,412 7,539 7,564
Capital goods industries................... 17,457 17,436 17,107 18,076 16,441 15,718 45,892 45,641 45,391 45,356 45,173 44,917
Nondefense ............................. 14,877 14,935 14,529 15,335 14,020 13,245 39,029 38,715 38,455 38,561 38,331 38,089
Defense ................................. 2,580 2,501 2,578 2,741 2,421 2,473 6,863 6,926 6,936 6,795 6,842 6,828

New orders Unfilled orders


All manufacturing industries, total.. 111,979 111,494 108,598 116,508 111,036 103,311 183.046 182,646 182,541 183,855 183,774 182,632

Durable goods industries, total............. 58,774 58,270 56,031 61,360 57,107 53,317 174,516 174,245 174,072 175,452 175,322 173,984
Nondurable goods industries, total......... 53,205 53,224 52,567 55,148 53,929 49,994 8,530 8,401 8,469 8,403 8,452 8,648

Industry groups arranged by market
categories:
Home goods and apparel.................... 8,997 9,161 8,796 9,809 9,940 8,339 3,892 3,903 3,622 4,144 4,211 3,883
Consumer staples.......................... 19,279 19,660 19,108 20,314 19,729 18,118
Equipment and defense products, except
automotive .............................. 15,160 14,332 14,484 15,898 14,086 14,272 104,038 104,111 104,906 104,679 104,438 104,418
Automotive equipment....................... 11,080 11,076 11,022 11,683 9,628 10,014
Construction materials, supplies, and
intermediate products.................... 9,930 10,129 9,418 10,856 10,707 9,457 18,131 18,335 18,191 18,491 18,426 18,295
Other materials and supplies and
intermediate products..................... 47,533 47,136 45,770 47,948 46,946 43,111 56,985 56,297 55,822 56,541 56,699 56,036

Supplementary series:2
Household durable goods industries....... 3,744 3,931 3,589 4,103 4,222 3,407 3,113 3,115 2,874 3,378 3,438 3,131
Capital goods industries................... 17,593 16,676 16,341 18,481 16,323 16,090 112,768 112,630 113,391 113,175 112,772 112,886
Nondefense ............................. 15,951 14,678 14,409 16,225 14,359 13,783 82,999 81,923 82,179 83,391 82,502 82,161
Defense ................................ 1,642 1,998 1,932 2,256 1,964 2,307 29,769 30,707 31,212 29,784 30,270 30,725

.During 1968 manufacturers in ordnance, communications, aircraft and aircraft parts, and shipbuilding industries began to provide aggre-
gate figures on shipments, orders, and total inventories of work performed for the Department of Defense. The results of these reports are
included in these new defense series. Preliminary. rRevised. iShipments and new orders adjusted for trading-day and calendar-
month variations; unfilled orders and inventories as of end of month. 2The supplementary series are regroupings of the separate industry
categories as follows:

Household durable goods industries Household furniture; kitchen articles and pottery; cutlery, handtools, and hardware; household
appliances; ophthalmic goods, watches, and clocks, watchcases; and miscellaneous personal goods.
Capital goods industries The capital goods industries series is comparable to the previous Producers' Capital Goods and the Defense
Products (old series) categories.
Nondefense industries Machinery, except electrical (excluding farm machinery and equipment and machine shops), electrical
machinery (excluding household appliances and electronic components), railroad equipment and the nondefense portions of ship-
building and military tank vehicles, communication equipment, aircraft, aircraft parts and ordnance.
Defense products (new series) Based on separate reports on defense work filed by large defense contractors in the following
industries: ordnance, communications, complete aircraft, aircraft parts, and shipbuilding and military tank vehicles. The
data are comparable to those published annually in the MA-175, Shipments of Defense-Oriented Industries, for the specified
industries.

3Beginning in 1976, the fiscal year for the Federal Government was changed from a July 1-June 30 basis to an October 1-September 30
basis. This change in the Government's fiscal year probably affected the awarding of contracts and other financial arrangements. Al-
though the impact of this change is not known, the use of previously established seasonal factors would have substantially distorted the
current data since these seasonal factors reflect historical Government purchasing patterns. Therefore, beginning in July 1977, new
composite seasonal factors were developed by combining the existing end of fiscal year information with data for the previous calendar
quarter (i.e., one quarter preceding the end of the fiscal year). These composite factors were applied to the unfilled orders data for
each of the separately tabulated defense industries. This adjustment also modified the new orders data. Similar adjustments could not
be made for nondefense Government orders since such data are not compiled separately. This method of calculating the seasonal factors
will be used until a sufficient amount of data are available to assess the impact of the change in the fiscal year on the seasonal pattern
of the defense industries.









Table 3.--MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS MONTH-TO-MONTH AND LONG TERM PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Month-to-month Average monthly rates of change Average, 1972-1976


Item and industry group Aug.- July- June- 3 months 12 months
Sept. Aug. July Average Average
Sep1977 1977 17 June-Sept. Mar.-June Dec. 1976- Sept.1976- rise decline
7 17 17 1977 1977 Mar. 1977 Sept.1977


Shipments:
All manufacturing industries.......... +0.2 +2.0 -1.3 +0.3 -0.2 +2.1 +1.1 +1.5 -1.1

Durable goods industries, total........ +0.7 +2.2 -1.3 +0.5 -0.7 +2.2 +1.4 +1.8 -1.5
Nondurable goods industries, total..... -0.4 +1.7 -1.4 -0.0 +0.4 +2.1 +0.8 +1.6 -1.1

Total inventories:
All manufacturing industries.......... +0.7 +0.3 +0.4 +0.5 +0.9 +0.6 +0.6 +1.0 -0.4
New orders:
All manufacturing industries.......... +0.4 +2.7 -2.6 +0.2 -0.1 +1.6 +1.1 +1.9 -1.7
Durable goods industries, total........ +0.9 +4.0 -4.0 +0.3 -0.4 +1.3 +1.4 +3.1 -2.1
Nondurable goods industries, total..... -0.0 +1.2 -1.1 +0.0 +0.3 +2.0 +0.8 +1.8 -1.1
Unfilled orders:
Durable goods industries, total........ +0.2 +0.1 -0.5 -0.1 +1.0 +0.5 +0.6 +1.6 -0.9












Table 4.--VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES, BY STAGE OF FABRICATION, BY INDUSTRY GROUP
(Millions of dollars)
Without seasonal Without seasonal
Seasonally adjusted ithusesonal Seasonally adjusted ait ussonal
adjustment adjustment
Industry group
Sept Aug. July Sept. Aug. July Sept. Aug. July Sept Aug. July
1977p 1977r 1977r 1977 1977r 1977r 1977 1977r1 1977r 1977 1977r 1977r

Total Materials and supplies


All manufacturing industries, total.. 176,397 175,104 174,571 174,401 173,730 172,902 64,340 63,891 63,910 63,893 63,647 63,233
Durable goods industries, total............. 111,832 111,452 110,978 110,785 110,656 110,110 37,358 37,312 37,209 37,535 37,371 36,932
Stone, clay, and glass products.......... 4,365 4,314 4,321 4,258 4,286 4,367 1,585 1,547 1,505 1,573 1,554 1,512
Primary metals ........................... 17,647 17,759 17,819 17,364 17,486 17,694 8,239 8,274 8,379 8,241 8,238 8,319
Machinery (electrical and nonelectrical). 40,753 40,527 40,268 40,144 40,110 40,010 11,402 11,227 11,237 11,267 11,243 11,316
Transportation equipment.................... 20,430 20,555 20,377 20,562 20,395 19,681 5,809 6,026 5,707 6,070 5,953 5,300
All other durable goods industries....... 28,637 28,297 28,193 28,457 28,379 28,358 10,323 10,238 10,381 10,384 10,383 10,485
Nondurable goods industries, total......... 64,565 63,652 63,593 63,616 63,074 62,792 26,982 26,579 26,701 26,358 26,276 26,301
Chemicals and allied products............. 13,943 13,746 13,549 13,617 13,543 13,480 5,497 5,442 5,339 5,457 5,439 5,373
Petroleum and coal products.............. 5,847 5,686 5,654 5,942 5,780 5,671 1,898 2,018 1,923 1,921 2,017 1,949
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c...... 4,165 4,137 4,112 4,068 4,092 4,075 1,480 1,509 1,510 1,449 1,499 1,504
All other nondurable goods industries.... 40,610 40,083 40,278 39,989 39,659 39,566 18,107 17,610 17,929 17,531 17,321 17,475

Work in process Finished goods

All manufacturing industries, total.. 54,464 54,076 53,694 54,164 53,842 53,315 57,593 57,137 56,967 56,344 56,241 56,354
Durable goods industries, total............. 44,835 44,529 44,120 44,529 44,306 43,761 29,639 29,611 29,649 28,721 28,979 29,417
Stone, clay, and glass products........... 707 687 671 682 682 671 2,073 2,080 2,145 2,003 2,050 2,184
Primary metals.......................... 5,806 5,977 5,892 5,703 5,891 5,915 3,602 3,508 3,548 3,420 3,357 3,460
Machinery (electrical and nonelectrical). 17,725 17,412 17,199 17,560 17,318 17,002 11,626 11,888 11,832 11,317 11,549 11,692
Transportation equipment.................. 11,829 11,826 11,936 11,749 11,742 11,739 2,792 2,703 2,734 2,743 2,700 2,642
All other durable goods industries....... 8,768 8,627 8,422 8,835 8,673 8,434 9,546 9,432 9,390 9,238 9,323 9,439
Nondurable goods industries, total......... 9,629 9,547 9,574 9,635 9,536 9,554 27,954 27,526 27,318 27,623 27,262 26,937

Chemicals and allied products.............. 2,345 2,289 2,299 2,323 2,260 2,275 6,101 6,015 5,911 5,837 5,844 5,832
Petroleum and coal products................ 1,254 1,172 1,194 1,252 1,194 1,224 2,695 2,496 2,537 2,769 2,569 2,498
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c...... 759 738 723 734 715 699 1,926 1,890 1,879 1,885 1,878 1,872
All other nondurable goods industries.... 5,271 5,348 5,358 5,326 5,367 5,356 17,232 17,125 16,991 17,132 16,971 16,735

PPreliminary.
rRevised.







Table 5.--RATIO OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TO SHIPMENTS AND UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, BY INDUSTRY GROUP
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Unfilled orders shipments ratio'
Inventories shipments ratio (months backlog)

Industry group
Sept. Aug. July June Sept. Aug. July June
1977p 1977 1977r 1977 1977b 1977r 1977 1977

All manufacturing industries, total................... 1.58 1.57 1.60 1.57 3.15 3.17 3.23 3.22
Durable goK ods Industries, total............................. 1.91 1.92 1.95 1.92 3.77 3.81 3.88 3.88
Stone, clay, antd glass products........................... 1.47 1.40 1.49 1.41 0.91 0.90 0.92 0.90
Primary metals.......... ...... ........................... 2.10 2.14 2.18 2.09 2.12 2.13 2.12 2.04
Fabricated metals.............................. ....-- 1.87 1.88 1.96 1.81 3,37 3.49 3.65 3.45
Machinery. except electrical........ ...................... .. 2.45 2.40 2.49 2.56 4.84 4.75 4.88 5.06
Electrical machinery...................................... 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.27 3.56 3.55 3.55 3.63
Transportation equipment......... ......................... 1.50 1.56 1.50 1.47 7.99 8.56 8.27 8.65
Instruments and related products.......................... 2.16 2.09 2.12 2.04 1.73 1.65 1.68 1.64
Nondurable goods industries, total........... .. ... ......... 1.22 1.19 1.21 1.19 0.72 0.70 0.73 0.71
Food and kindred products................................. 1.08 1.02 1.04 1.03 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products ......................................... 5.16 5.03 5.39 5.17 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products .................................... 1.51 1.54 1.60 1.58 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products................................. 1.28 1.24 1.27 1.21 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products ............................ 1.47 1.49 1.49 1.39 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products............................... 0.73 0.70 0.70 0.70 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c....................... 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.32 (X) (X) (X) (X)

NA' Not available. PPreliminary. "Revised. (X) Not applicable.
IExcludes the following industries with no unfilled orders: Wood and lumber products; glass containers; metal cans, barrels and drums;
motor vehicles assembly operations; foods and related products; tobacco; apparel and related products; chemicals; petroleum and coal
products; and rubber and plastics products, n.e.c.






APPENDIX


The following is a description of the survey and definitions
used. These are provided to clarify the meaning of the items
involved and do not represent any revisions from those defini-
tions previously employed.


DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey
provides monthly figures that are comparable to the annual
totals published each year in the Annual Survey of Manufac-
tures (ASM). The ASM is based on a sample of approximately
60,000 manufacturing establishments drawn from the 5-year
census universe of about 310,000 establishments.. In the ASM,
each manufacturing establishment provides data on employ-
ment, payrolls, shipments, cost of materials, capital expendi-
tures, and inventories as well as other selected items. The estab-
lishments do not provide information on unfilled orders or new
orders. Since the ASM is establishment based, it provides data
for each. of the 425 manufacturing industries in the Standard
Industrial Classification System (SIC) and area data for industry
groups.
The monthly survey M3-1 does not provide information at
the complete SIC industry detail because of the smaller size of
the reporting panel and the fact that most companies cannot
provide shipments, inventories, and orders data monthly for
individual establishments.
The monthly reporting panel consists of approximately
5,000 reporting units and includes virtually all companies with
1,000 or more employees and a sample of the smaller ones. The
reporting unit typically comprises the entire operations of a
company although many of the larger diversified companies file
separate divisional type reports for their operations in different
industries.
Most of the reporting units include mixed industry activity
even within the broad industry categories of the monthly sur-
vey. The survey methodology assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each industry cate-
gory represent effectively the month-to-month movements of
the establishments in the SIC industries which make up the
category. Thus, the monthly reports are used to update the
ASM estimates by using a link relative of matched companies in
each industry.


EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments-Shipments in the monthly survey are
equivalent to value of shipments as reported in the ASM which
are received or receivable net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after
discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and
excise taxes. Included in shipments are the value of all products
sold, transferred to other plants of the same company, or
shipped on consignment.
Shipments also include receipts of establishments in the
industry for contract work performed for others, resales, re-
ceipts for miscellaneous activities such as the sale of scrap and
refuse; value of installation and repair work performed by
employees of the plant; and value of research and development
performed at the plant. In the aircraft industry and ship-


building, the value of work done in a given year varies consider-
ably from the value of shipments because of the long lead time
between the input of the materials and labor and the shipments
of the completed aircraft or ship. In the annual survey, there-
fore, the value of work done during the year is requested rather
than the value of shipments.
The value of shipments figures developed from the ASM con-
tain duplication at the all manufacturing and industry group
levels since the products of some industries are used as materials
by other industries within the industry group. With the excep-
tion of motor vehicles, it is not significant at the 4-digit SIC
group level. Since the M3-1 industry categories typically are
groupings of industries, this duplication is significant for the all
manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable goods categories
and the various market groups. The significance of the duplica-
tion within the specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending
on the 4-digit industry composition of these groups. It is most
pronounced in a few highly integrated industry areas such as
primary metals and motor vehicles and parts.
Since most monthly reports are for the entire company or
major divisions rather than establishments, the companies are
requested to report net sales, i.e., total company billings after
discounts and allowances. Companies which file divisional
reports are requested to treat transfers from one division of the
company to another as if they were net sales to outside cus-
tomers. Although this definition of shipments in the monthly
reports differs from that used in the annual establishment re-
ports, it is assumed that the month-to-month changes in com-
pany sales in the industry are representative of the month-to-
month shipments of the establishments in the industry.


Inventories-End-of-month inventories in the monthly survey
are identical in definition to the end-of-year inventories in the
ASM. In the ASM, respondents are asked to report inventories
of individual establishments at approximate current cost if
feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since different methods
of inventory valuation are used (LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the defini-
tion of the aggregate inventories for establishments in an indus-
try is not precise. The figures on the change in inventories from
one period to the next are of greater significance than the actual
aggregates.
Inventories are reported by stage of fabrication: (a) finished
goods; (b) work in process; and (c) materials, supplies, fuel, and
other inventories. In using inventories by stage of fabrication at
the all manufacturing and 2-digit industry levels as well as for
the durable and nondurable goods sectors, it should be noted
that a finished product of one industry may be a raw material
for another industry at the next stage of fabrication. Insofar as
the durable and nondurable goods sectors and also the 2-digit
industry groups contain industries with successive stages of
processing, the same type of commodity may be included under
different inventory categories in the aggregate statistics.


New Orders Received and Unfilled Orders-Orders as re-
ported in the monthly survey are net of cancellations during the
month. They include orders received during the period and also
filled during the period as well as those orders received for
future delivery. They also include the net sales value of contract




U.S. Department
of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233
Official Business


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

ill 11111111111 11 ll l Illl 1ll l ll1l111 11111111 ll 1I
3 1262 08589 4805
|U.S.MAIL
COM-202 L1


change documents which increase or decrease the sales value of
the unfilled orders to which they relate. Orders include only
those supported by binding legal documents such as signed con-
tracts, or letter contracts. In case of letter contracts the full
amount of the sales value is included if the parties are in sub-
stantial agreement on the amount; otherwise, only the funds
specifically authorized to be expended are included. The re-
spondent is instructed to deduct the sales value of partial or
complete cancellation of existing orders.
Unfilled orders include orders as defined above that have not
yet passed through the sales account. Generally, unfilled orders
at the end of the reporting period are equal to unfilled orders at


the beginning of the period plus net new orders received less net
sales.
While both new orders and unfilled orders are used in review-
ing individual company reports for consistency, only unfilled
orders are estimated directly in the tabulated totals. New orders
are derived from the shipments plus net change in unfilled
orders for each industry category. This procedure is followed
for seasonally adjusted data as well as for the unadjusted data.
Shipments and unfilled orders are seasonally adjusted inde-
pendently. Seasonally adjusted new orders are derived from
seasonally adjusted shipments and seasonally adjusted unfilled
orders.