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POT TOES Released: January 13, 1984 3:00 P.M. ET ESTIMATED PC Reporting Board Statistics Service Reporting U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, 20250 POTATO TOCK DOWN PERCENT Fall January a year potatoes data fro percent potato , 1984, ago a were >m the fall totaled for the 70 p percent recent major below russ objective potato yield production million torage million State January 6 percent States. compared white The s with 6 torage down tock! perc total percent metric ent red tons) percent from variety, ased on accounted year continued ago. on page 4. FALL (FOR POTATO STATES : PRODUCTION ESTIMATING AND POTATO TOCK STOCK 1L EVL. - ~N* -NE.- - u *NOTE: * * * Stocks are defined and us the da as the quantity remaining in storage for al es, including shrinkage and waste and other te of each report. Sales of fall potatoes account for about 90 percent of the tota losses for all fall production. purposes that occur after * purposes generally* Shrinkage and * loss and home use account for the remaining 10 percent. * ******************************************* TABLE 1. AND MAY 1 FALL POTATOES: TOTAL STOCKS DECEMBER JANUARY AND COMPARABLE PRODUCTION FOR FEBRUARY 1, MARCH 1, APRIL 1, 15 STATES ESTIMATING POTATO STOCKS : PRODUCTION 247,686 278,679 266,422 294,978 295,421 311,981 285,060 255,691 286,245 296,657 277,769 DEC 1 154,890 183,850 181,720 219,850 200,820 171,730 192,810 206,175 187,100 JAN 1 131,600 160,100 156.220 193,520 176,020 146,610 163,680 178,750 161.210 FEB 1 000 CWT 105,360 131,480 129,710 142,030 147,930 137,120 149,560 MAR 1 80,460 102,963 102,850 112,830 119,850 132,570 121,720 97,280 111,280 121.540 APR i MAY 1 70,970 81,130 88,680 99,250 92,550 72,460 81,870 89.120 64,830 59,535 44,446 50,660 56.875 TABLE POTATOES USED FOR PROCESSING EIGHT STATES 1 1982 AND 1983 CROPS STATE STORAGE SEASON IDAHO AND MALHEUR 1982-83 1983-84 TO DEC 1 14,33 15.75 : JAN 1 18,645 20.445 TO FEB 1 23,395 MAR 1 28,535 APR 1 34.480 : MAY 1 ENTIRE SEASON 39.715 53. 395 MAINE 1982-83 : 1983-84 1,915 1.120 2,800 1.515 4.400 5,230 6,010 7,450 WASH AND OTHER AREAS : 1982-83 : 1983-84 16,840 16.245 20,130 19,920 23,685 27,870 32,100 36,365 45.500 OTHER STATES 3/ 4/ 1982-83 1983-84 10,220 4.305 12,170 13.820 16.405 6.005 TOTAL 1982-83 1983-84 38,740 37,425 48,710 47.885 59,345 71,025 83,980 95.910 122,750 TOTAL QUANTITY RECEIVED AND USED FOR PROCESSING REGARDLESS OF THE STATE IN WHICH THE POTATOES rncr AnriM Tki i in IIl C fIATTTrTC l1rC CAln nATArA PUTin Tiht UATAi U i++tt)t)ttkkt)ktttttttt)lrtt)tttttRtl IIIT nnl ir rn u utrrn LI nnv nn r.rlr TABLE 3. POTATO PROCESSORS S: PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES HELD BY GROWERS, , AND LOCAL DEALERS ON JANUARY 1, 1983 AND JANUARY 1, 1984 CROP OF 1982 CROP OF 1983 STATE : PRODUCTION :TOTAL :JAN 1 :JAN 1 STOCKS : AS % OF : PRODUCTION : PRODUCTION :TOTAL :JAN 1, TOCKS 1984 :JAN 1 STOCKS AS % OF PRODUCTION 1.000 CWT PERCENT ,000 CWT PERCENT CALIF COLO NY-LI UPSTATE N DAK OHIO OREG PA WASH WIS 7,58 12,82 91,71 27,03 8,08 11,52 1,92 2,14 4,99 7,02 17,25 2,32 21,10 5,75 52,80 22.57 15 STATE TOTAL 296,657 178,750 277.769 161,210 assist u estimates, the "I ser; Root s in t Mean evaluating the Square Error", been calculated. This is computed preliminary estimate and the final est squared average percentage deviations becomes, statistically, made concerning expected season those errors estimate, assuming that influencing recent years' reliability a statistical measure January based by expressing the deviations imate as a percent of the final he 1964-83 twenty-year period. potato on past between estimate and The square performance, stocks e January 1 averaging the root of this the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements in the current preliminary estimate relative to the final factors affecting thi preliminary estimates. year's estimate can be end-of- are not different "Root Mean Square Error" for the January , 1984 potato stocks estimate is 2.4 percent. This means that chance will not be above or million hundredweight difference will not ex es are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 161 mil lion below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or appr Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence le ceed 4.2 percent or approximately 6.77 million hundredweight. hundredweight oximately 3.87 vel) that the During the past 10 years, the difference estimate averaged 4.01 million hundredweight. was 1.23 million hundredweight. The preliminary 9 out of the past 10 years. between t The largest January 1 e January deviation 1 preliminary was 5.94 and y and final the smallest estimate was below the final estimate oV I TABLE FALL POTATO JANUARY 1, STOCKS 1984, MAJOR STATE POTATO TYPES STATE : REDS WHITES RUSSETS TOTAL PERCENT COLO IDAHO MAINE MICH 4/ MINN N Y 2/ N DAK OREG 1/ PA 2/ WASH 1/ STATE TOTAL INCLUDES SMALL INCLUDES SMALL QUANTITIE OF WHITES QUANTITIES OF REDS, INCLUDES SMALL AMOUNT NOT PUBLISHED OF RUSSETS, TO AVOID DISCLOSURE LESS LESS LES OF S THAN THAN 5 THAN 5 PERCENT OF PERCENT OF TOTAL. TOTAL. OPERATIONS. three ent from a percent percent from a year from while year Eastern ago. M b year. ;ylvania States aine stocks stock were stocks, totaled 2 estimated 4.00 million ?.1 million cwt, at 15.9 million million cwt, cwt, were down down cwt, were down 44 percent 1984, million was up down cwt, 8.40 million Michigan, million c :wt, Central percent a gain percent In cwt, at 4.50 States from la stored st year )f 10 percent The other 4 off 11 was down Lion percent cwt, 35.0 North from Central Minnesota, ras down Dakota st year States cwt of potato storage Ohio, were .80 million coes on J accounted I. anuary at 450 thousand follows cwt, down Wiscon percent; Nebraska, Western 9 percent Oregon ago. C0 from States Washington cellars. olorado sto but California ho potato t January. holdings, containing icks, at 8. Tidings, at stocks Idaho, were at 52.5 million cwt at 25.6 million 05 mil 4.21 cwt, were , were dipped were up sto down 8 p percent red, declined fractionally; than lightly. season yeai of r s app~a nce to7Thiia nury s pace shrinkage, and 5 percent dumped .. - short lost stocks million of 2 ... -. years season States year, This compared fron 1 include 1 n the f percent 'n-nn .. .h .... first below the last 15.9 million cwt million during BY TYPE AS PERCENT OF TOTAL STOCKS, perc TOTAL. INDIVIDUAL PERCENT OF , holding New York million down 16 percent. 14 percent. percent cwt, while year year; estimated million million lion cwt, cwt, million cwt, potatoes totaled percent from witi 1 Crop Reporting Board ORDER FORM USDA CROP REPORTING BOARD PUBLICATIONS (Publications available only from Crop Reporting Board Subscription Fee Subscription Fee Issued Domestic Foreign Issued Domestic Foreign FIELD CROP SERIES Stocks Peanut (2 issues) Stocks Processing Mar. & Sept. 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Monday-Friday 8 00 am ne GPC o to 4 00 (except holidaysl For Office Use Only Company or Personal Name Quantity Charges -L 1 l 1 Publications 22.50 25.00 22.50 33.75 20.00 28.75 5.00 10.65 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON. D.C. 20250 OFFICIAL BUSINESS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,,~_~*,,,,,,,,~~,,,*. PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE. S300 To stop meangO *.**. 0 0 tow Change your *n0 o shoot wnth Mbei Iect. ShowiO new l ree. to Crop Itepontng Board Pubc eons. SRS. U kpt of Agncufture. bM 5829 South udldmng. 14th & Independfenc Av S.W.. Wt .. D C 20250 IUNIV'ERSITy OF FLORIDA 3 1;62( 886( 47^ rOSTAOt AND Psu oAIO A. o iott n o | FIRST CLASS I |