Memo from Lewis R. Grosenbaugh about his retirement from the U.S. Forest Service, and an Annual Report covering 1973-1974

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Memo from Lewis R. Grosenbaugh about his retirement from the U.S. Forest Service, and an Annual Report covering 1973-1974
Physical Description:
Mixed Material
Language:
English
Creator:
Grosenbaugh, L. R. (Lewis Randolph), 1913-
Publication Date:
Physical Location:
Box: 1
Folder: History of research project

Subjects

Spatial Coverage:
North America -- United States of America

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
System ID:
AA00007565:00001

Full Text
UNITEDSTATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FOREST SERVICE
SEFES


REPLY TO: 6180 (GROSLR74021) June 3, 1974

SUBJECT: Retirement

ro: Director, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station

Since the pioneering research unit in forest mensuration will cease to exist
June 8 upon my retirement, there are a few physical details not covered in
my annual report of March 31 that should be recorded. The CRIS report of
3-31-74 reported termination of the unit.
All property for which I bear written responsibility has been returned to
stock. This consisted of: 1 new book of TR's containing unused requests
B-3 325,161 through B-3,325,170 returned to R8 (C. H. Crowley) on May 1,
1974; 1 Forest Service master key, 1 USDA identification card (AD-54 serial
171151), and 1 expired U. S. Government motor vehicle operator' s identifica-
tion card (SF-46, serial SE-285), all returned to SEFES on June 3, 1974- I
have never had any funds advanced for travel. I am not now indebted to the
United States. I have no classified material of any kind in my possession.

A discussion with Deputy Chief M. B. Dickerman and yourself on April 24
resulted in verbal agreement to transfer all office furniture purchased in
1968 (new cost $2,321) to R8, in view of their support since then without
overhead charges except FTS and half of the annual salary of a GS-4 secretary.

It is hoped that the Station can handle publication of my remaining research
paper without recourse to R8 typists, but in the event that the Station is
unable to process my tape cassettes, we might have to ask R8 assistance in
reproducing (with or without modification) 40 pages of text from CPT or
TB/ST cassettes in a form suitable for photo-reproduction. I will have to
personally negotiate for high-quality computer printout of 74 pages of
appendices, since no government-controlled line-printers are suitable. Five
pages of the appendix will require photoreduction and paste-up. R8 provided
the five prints for the semifinal draft, and it would simplify things if
they would do the same for the final draft.

The official correspondence files of the unit consist of about a half-drawer
of letters and memoranda, with each outgoing item numbered serially and
abstracted. Unless this material should be required for national archives,
I would like to retain it, as it is ephemeral but does have some historical
value.







The extensive library of the unit is personally owned and I will remove it
as soon as feasible. However, I hope that R8 will give me a grace period
of several weeks, since it involves about 40 boxes of books, journals, and
papers that must go into temporary storage until I move to a residence large
enough to accommodate them. I will return the key to Room 200 as soon as
my library has been moved.

An exact accounting cannot be made until the end of the fiscal year. However,
I have projected all known legitimate costs through June 30, and the follow-
ing figures for the entire FY 74 can be added to Attachments 1 and 2 of my
recent annual reports salary $36,719; travel $812; computing $3,052; over-
head $5,950; total cost $46,533; released to Station $8,806 ($6,600 plus
$2,206 salary savings minus $45 FEHB cost absorption); unspent $586; gross
allotment $55,925. My release more than covers an $8,724 lump sum payment,
which is not a legitimate charge against research. Including the $9,987
special one-time costs, the pioneering unit cost $U80,856 over its almost
exactly 13-year life; it released $64,424 to the two Stations and returned
$4,255 to the Treasury unspent out of a gross allotment of $549,$3$5
Computer use for FY 74 for 244 jobs was 1.38 hours costing $1,600 (all Univac
1108 EXEC8 at NBS and Georgia Tech), with computer-related cost of $1,452
for keypunch rental. No useful computing chargeable to pioneering research
was done at Fort Collins, although I devoted a lot of time and effort to help-
ing R8 benchmark, validate, establish, and test ny four libraries so that the
Forest Service nationally and locally could access them there (60 jobs re-
quiring .33 hours of CPU time, for which no charge was made). Four quarterly
reports (forms GSA-2068A) covering .5237 hours of computer use at Georgia Tech
plus other services (total bill of $339.80) have been mailed to GSA with copies
to R8.

I would strongly advise R8 to retain my leased IBM 029 keypunch (it rents for
$121 monthly, serial number H6145). Among its excellent features are that it
can interpret, that it has interspersed-master duplicating capability, and
that it punches EBCDIC holes, which correspond closely to FIPS and ASCII stan-
dards. I assume R8 intends to retain the CPT typewriter (which replaced my
shared MT/ST in June) next fiscal year even without my contribution toward
rental after June 30.

Since approximately 450 square feet of office space that I have been occupying
will no longer be used by research in FY 75, someone should take steps to
relieve the research appropriation at the Washington level of GSA deductions
for that space.

All major achievements of the pioneering research unit have been embodied in
23 publications, 2 unpublished manuscripts, and 4 libraries of computer programs.







The 1974 annual report of the unit abstracted all publications. A final draft
of the first of two unpublished manuscripts ("An octal alternative to metri-
cation") was administratively cleared for publication by Director, SEFES, on
June 28, 1972. It has subsequently been rejected by the only three suitable
outlets (AAAS, ACM, NAS) because of their overwhelming biases in favor of
metrication. Purely as a matter of record, it may be published in some less
suitable outlet. Possibly after a century or two, the merits of the proposal
can be assessed more objectively.

A semifinal draft of the second manuscript ("STI 3-3-73: tree content and
value estimation using various sample designs, dendrometry methods, and
conversion coefficients") is being proposed as a Research Paper (114 pages
of camera copy). It not only embodies much new material, but has benefitted
from informal criticisms and suggestions by informed users who have used the
three earlier versions, the first of which appeared in 1964. The current
version of the program has been widely distributed and is being used heavily
at present, even with outdated documentation. Every effort should be made
to give this manuscript high enough priority so that the publication will
appear in three or four months; its predecessor published by the Washington
Office in 1971 required only three months from the time of the semifinal
draft, comparable to this one. Based on past experience and current interest,
about 1,500 copies should be adequate for a five year supply. Projected needs
take into account bulk demands by universities, workshops, etc. I am leaving
Xerox copies with the editor, and would appreciate speedy processing.

The four libraries of computer programs (LGLIB2, LGLIB3, BN69AX, SIMSCR) de-
veloped by pioneering research are well documented by ny 6600 memorandum to
the files dated December 4, 1973 (GROSLR73032). They have been established
and tested over a 6-year period at Georgia Tech, and now are available under
Univac 1108 ELEC8 as cataloged files at USDA Fort Collins Computer Center.
They were available also at NBS (Gaithersburg) and Georgia Tech until recently,
when they were deleted because of irrational Forest Service and USDA pressure
to concentrate all computing at Fort Collins regardless of much higher costs.

R8 has been furnished three large volumes of listings, runstreams, and outputs
that document library establishment and testing at Fort Collins. I trust that
they will accept responsibility for seeing that the files are appropriately
restored if system failures disable them. To help do this, I am turning over
to them two labelled 9-track tapes each containing the identical same four
files (in @COPY, GM format) at Fort Collins (AA FOO20, BB FOO0421). Since
the internal labels of each tape contain an expiration date of 2-22-75, they
should be recopied or updated with a later expiration date before that time.
The current master directory precedes each file with the qualifier GROSENBAUGH,
so that GROSENB&UGH*filename is the appropriate specification for each cataloged
file.

R8 has also been provided in Atlanta with card decks and test data for LGLIB2,
two 7-track unlabelled tapes made at Georgia Tech from which the 9-track tapes
at Fort Collins were copied, and decks of control cards to help update, list,
test, and document the four libraries.


I







Southern Forest Experiment Station's Bonnie Polmer has copied my original 7-
track tape containing all four files at NASA (Slidell) and has been given decks
of control cards (and test data) listed in my December 3, 1973 memorandum
(GROSLR73032).

Southeastern Area's James C. Space has both EBCDIC and BCD card decks of the
four major programs (with test data) in which he is interested (REX, RN3P,
STI, USMT).

The PNW (Johnson), INT (Stage), and SE (Boyce) Experiment Stations have also
been given card decks for the same four programs, the first in BCD for CDC
6b00, the second and third in EBCDIC for IBK 360's.

Finally U. of Florida, U. of South Alabama, U. of Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin
State U., West Virginia State U., U. of Maine, U. of New Hampshire, TVA, St.
Regis Paper Co., and a number of other corporations have recent EBCDIC decks
of the four programs and have them operational. A number of universities and
companies have earlier versions.

Those requesting copies of the programs in the future will have to provide
7-track or 9-4rack unlabelled tapes and have USDA Fort Collins copy them, as
the Forest Service DatalOO terminals have no capability to read or write
Univac 1108 tapes and the programs are too large and complex for card repro-
duction except in unusual cases.

I believe this, together with my annual report dated March 31, 197h, covers
the physical facts essential to closing out a one-man unit and documents the
content, location, and availability of the results of the 13 years of pioneer-
ing research in forest mensuration. My long association with the Forest Service
has been rewarding, and I expect to see most of my coworkers about as frequently
after retirement as before, which means there is no need for goodbyes, tears,
or cheers.


L R. GRGSEN AUGH


oc: R8, SE Area








ANNUAL REPORT (APRIL 1, 1973 MARCH 31, 1974)

PIONEERING RESEARCH UNIT IN FOREST MENSURATION

Atlanta, Georgia

SE-1399-POl


GENERAL

W. 0. procurement of slow, unreliable DATA 100 remote-batch terminals
for the regions, coupled with establishment of a USDA Computing Center
at Fort Collins occurred this past fall. Telecommunications are so
expensive, slow, and error ridden that attempts to divert most Forest
Service computing away from nearby efficient sources can only result
in greatly deteriorated cost-performance.


PHYSICAL FACILITIES

As was anticipated in last year's report, the scheduled move of pioneer-
ing research from the 8th to the 2nd floor (away from secretarial,
duplication, supply, procurement and travel services, and away from
technical branches of R8 and S&PF that cooperate in mensurational
research) has greatly diminished effective conduct of research besides
wasting nearly a month of scientist time in the moving process. The
subsequent loss (December 8) of a competent MT/ST typist has been an
additional setback.

FINANCES

Funds allocated to pioneering research in FY 74 were $38,925 for
scientist salary and fringe benefits, plus an operating allotment of
$17,000-a total of $55,925. Apparently Congress did not provide funds
for the increased costs of the January 1973 pay act.

One of the early products of pioneering research (1962) was an efficient,
detailed, timely, accurate, and meaningful program for money-management,
(ACT, updated to ACX), that furnished information unavailable from the
Service's obsolete fiscal accounting system but necessary to avoid jail
or gross underspending. This early achievement has made possible a
meaningful tabulation of the costs of research for the entire life span
of the pioneering unit, shown on Attachment 1.

Total cost from its beginning in FY 61 through FY 73 (including station and
RO overhead and $9,987 special one-time costs shown below the main
table) was $434,323.. Gross allotments for this period totalled $493,610,
of.which $55,618 was released to PSW or SE in ample time to help finance
other research, and $3,669 was returned to the Treasury unspent (a small
safety margin since travel, etc., could not be exactly predicted).


I % V





2

A gross allotment of $55,925 for FY 74 will have to be properly classified
and added to the above aggregates to complete the financial picture at
the end of FY 74.

Since computer use and computer-related activities constitute the largest
single element of nonoverhead, nonsalary expense, computer usage is
analyzed and expenditures are broken down by year and by system in
Attachment 2, which covers the same slightly more than 12-year period
as does Attachment 1. No interactive or demand usage occurred,
since it is far less efficient and more costly than batch processing
for large-scale program development.

As can.be inferred from Attachment 1, travel expense has been very
modest (averaging only slightly more than $800 per. year), except for
FY 73, when dendrometry/3P sampling workshops were being held at a large
number of universities and special advance trips were necessary to
get a sizable program library operational at each university computer
center.

PROGRESS REPORT

FY 74 marked the completion of that series of 11 workshops (mostly 2-1/2
days each) conducted cooperatively by pioneering research, S&PF, TM,
various schools of forestry, various extension services, and some
companies. About 20 participants were enrolled at each workshop,
not including a number of professors and graduate students who usually
audited the sessions. Participants constituted a rather well balanced
and progressive cross-section of professional foresters-including
federal, state, industrial, consulting, and university. An international
flavor was given to 3 workshops where Canadians and Mexicans partici-
pated; both Canada and Mexico have found the techniques efficient and
are going ahead with applications.

Each university was left with the entire dendrometry/3P system operational
on its computer, so that it could henceforth provide advice and computer
processing services to participants subsequently electing to apply the
techniques they had learned. In most cases, the workshop had direct impact
on the local mensuration or biometry curriculum and was responsible for
inclusion of the new techniques in both undergraduate and graduate
courses.

Locations and dates of the workshops were:

(1) Auburn University 9/15-16/71
(2) Auburn University 1/19-20/72
(3) Louisiana State University 5/17-19/72
(4) Mississippi State University 6/13-15/72
(5) Clemson University 8/15-17/72
(6) Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. 9/13-15/72
(7) University of Florida 2/13-15/73
(8) University of Tennessee 5/2-4/73
(9) University of Maine 5/30-6/1/73









(10) Stephen F. Austin State University 6/13-15/73
(11) University of New Hampshire 10/1-3/73

In addition to the 11 workshops above, a 2-day workshop for middle- and
top management of the FS and BLM was conducted in Washington, D. C. on :
4/16-17/73, jointly by pioneering research, S&PF, TM, and Forest Survey
at SO. I also participated in a 3-day national tree measurement workshop
in Denver on November 6-8, 1973, sponsored by the WO Division of Timber
Management.

These joint efforts to get pioneering research results into use were in
addition to a considerable number of individual efforts by pioneering
research, TM, and S&PF. Pioneering research assisted Forest Survey at the
Southern Station in analyzing and processing a state-wide pilot study on
the use of 3P techniques in remeasurement of permanent sample trees to
estimate survivor growth, harvest, and mortality in Mississippi. Pioneer-
ing research also made a short presentation to the Southern Long Range
Forest Research Planning Task Force (2.01) for Inventory and Appraisal
of Forest Resources at New Orleans on 9/11/73.

Work (begun in FY 73) to incorporate a number of improvements into
STX 2-22-72 was completed in FY 74, resulting in STX 3-3-73. This is
now a broad-spectrum forest inventory and appraisal system capable of
processing trees selected by a wide variety of sampling designs and
measured by -any desired type of dendrometry. Possible designs could employ
photos, strips, plots,points, lines, lists as well as 3P and multistage
combinations thereof. Furthermore, 2 new options were added that result
in adjustment of individual sample-tree frequencies so that their
aggregate equals total population frequency, first-stage estimate thereof,
or some arbitrary aggregate deemed more reliable that the 3P estimate of
frequency. Finally, this balancing is achieved without modifying the 3P
estimate of volume or of effective KPI.

Although frequency-balancing does not change or improve the volume
estimate, it improves the model of the population formed by the
samples, and should thus improve estimates of other variables that are
poorly correlated with effective KPI (e.g., frequency estimates are
obviously improved--or made perfect in the case of complete visitation).
One minor refinement could not be achieved in the current quantum-jump--it
would be desirable to constrain the vector of frequency percentage adjustment
factors so that no adjustment factor could equal or be more negative than
minus 1 (to avoid adjusted frequencies becoming zero or negative).
Future research undoubtedly will find a feasible way of imposing this
constraint, in view of success with related problems in linear programming.

The initial rough draft of a manuscript summarizing 10 years of research
and explaining how to use STX 3-3-73 has nearly been completed and the






4

75-page computer-printed Appendices A and B and 2 other sections have
been circulated to a number of interested users.

A paper ready for publication develops a coherent, consistent, and complete
system of measures using an octal base that is an attractive alternative to
the metric system (SI). Although change to either the new system or to
SI would have a one-time cost amounting to billions of dollars, the new
system (but not the metric system) would ultimately save billions of
dollars annually through allowing more efficient computer storage, search,
and processing. However, the new system seems to be too far ahead of its
time since most scientists are unaware of the implications of the binary
revolution and the superiority of 2-state logic in electronic information
storage, processing, and retrieval. The paper cannot be published until
a suitable opportunity arises--most publishers are currently so pro-metric
that they are unwilling to give space to any adverse argument.

One publication appeared in the current report year:

Grosenbaugh, L. R. 1973. Forest measurements (in 1973 McGraw-Hill Year-
book of Science and Technology, pp. 193-194).

[Six major advances in forest mensuration techniques in
the past few years are discussed, including better dendrometers;
a new broad-spectrum computer program capable of handling a
wide variety of sampling designs and tree-measurement
techniques; and the application of multistage 3P or list-
sampling designs to 4 different situations; individual standing
trees, felled-tree product-yield, aerial photographs, and remeasure-
ment of previously measured trees to estimate mortality, harvest,
and survivor growth].

Just as Attachments 1 and 2 summarize allotments, actual costs, and
computer usage from the initiation of the pioneering research unit
in forest mensuration in FY 61 through FY 73, so Appendix A summarizes
the published results of that research.

For completeness, the 2 unpublished manuscripts discussed above and
actual expenditures for FY 74 should be added if and when the publications
occur and when aggregate expenditures are known.

CONCLUSIONS

Scientific research can best be evaluated long after its occurrence.
Historians may sometime be interested, however, in how a responsible
scientist viewed his work at the time. After 8 years, an early
pessimistic assessment by the author turns out to have been fairly
realistic (page 6 of May 19, 1967, PSWFES "What's NEW in RESEARCH").


S1 t




I r ,I


5

I am a little more optilmtic now after 13 years, in view of the fact
that a small part of the research is in use on a modest scale and
appears to be spreading rapidly. A tremendous amount of educational
effort, demonstration, and advocacy by the researcher himself in the
past 11 years has finally borne fruit, but broad dissemination owes
much to foresters-.who grasped the potentialities and acted as exponents--
men like Clem Mesavage, Floyd Johnson, Dave Bruce, George Hartman,
Al Stage, Ted Lacher, Gary Steber, Jim Space, Doyle Turman, and
Dwane Van Hooser.

When more widely used, the dendrometry/3P techniques will not only
save millions of dollars annually in forest survey and timber sales,
but will provide objective information not now available in terms of
primary units (volume, surface, length) that are more useful (i.e., more
consistent and better related to cost, product outturn, and biological
growth phenomena) than are traditional units. Furthermore, a rather
unique conversion matrix is already embedded in computer program STX
that allows input in either US or metric units, and converts output
summaries into either US or metric units, regardless of input.

For the first time in history, foresters can employ precise dendrometry
efficiently and escape from unknown but large volume table biases without
incurring the exorbitant expense of destructive sampling. Even more
startling, skilled assessors can demonstrate statistically that their
consistent though biased guesses can be exploited to produce unbiased
estimates with far fewer measured samples for a specified level of
accuracy than would be required by equiprobable selection from point-
samples or plot-samples.

Despite the qualified optimism above, I do not feel complacent about
the achievements of the pioneering research unit.

I regret that my efforts to improve the speed and utility of Forest
Service accounting and budgeting have not borne fruit. However, computer
programs ACX and BUDJ are adaptable to a wide variety of situations, and
I expect that eventually enlightened users may have some impact on
Service-wide accounting procedures and MODE.

I also regret my inability to obtain the adoption by the Forest Service
of a more rational computer policy. However, my 4 program libraries
.(LGLIB2, LGLIB3, BN69AX, and SIMSCR) are well documented by a
memorandum of December 4, 1973, and are available to Forest Service
users at Georgia Tech, National Bureau of Standards, and USDA Fort
Collins Computer Center. Benchmarking indicates that Georgia Tech cost/
performance is much superior to NBS, FCCC, and CSC (Infonet). Costs
for processing benchmark jobs were half-again greater at FCCC and NBS,
and 5 to 7 times greater at CSC. I am also disappointed that the
Forest Service stubbornly persists in using Cobol instead of lbrtran
for accounting and record-keeping. In the long run this may waste







6

almost as many dollars as their procurement of inadequate and unreliable
hardware such as the Univac 1005, the CDC 3100, and the Data 100.

My last regret is that I have never had the time to continue my exploratory
work on standstructure. However, I felt that until good dendrometry and
sampling techniques were developed to provide suitable objective aggregates
that did not require stratification by stem size, model-building would be
futile. Much more plausible biological models can now be postulated in
terms of volume, surface, length, and my generalized growth distribution
function.

L R. GROSENBAUGH

L. R. GROSENBAUGH
Chief Mensurationist
Pioneering Research Unit


5 .' .'




Attachment 1. FPunds Allotted ta 'an Spent bj Roncc-enq Re:
FISCAL YEAR


;ear ~fr't Mewgura4orI


Expendlf.ire Ttems '62 63 _4_ '65 '66 '67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72. '73 '74-
Salary nd frnges 41L sB13 15- g 7 '*31 T 5733 51 t05 5Z 6 2.5-98 6 387 o '9 3 815 f35 -T I 7 6 2.- 36711
.Ma&or eqrpen meo0t' 2.50 2 0 -- -- -7 -- -- -
Tra.vej Z2.2 779 1 Ll4 494 776 1 321 LW59 V70 763 4f91 932. 2 689 8 __
Computim.l 503 1 179 3 99 1 709 1 861 2. OaS- 3 01o 2. 9l 37 76 3589 3 12. 3 2oZ. 30Z 2.
Miscellaneous 12-1 1 lao- 183 82 2. 9 L40' ''74 .1 _i_2. 1 --- --
O'heaod Pne. 006 600 o6 6 7 ( 734 4 993 8 44 9 22-9 5 519- qo5 5'3o9 e51 5 938 5950
Annual expenditure. 2-419 1 2 5Z 6 29 5467 2-7 73 33 904 33 .01 35739 357 af1 4Io 68t Lf2 219 490 49 9 -91.
Released t Statiort 5 98 f9 2Q0 200 o 175 1 15't 1oo 2.04 8 000 114 6 00 9 700 5 3o0 25go_
Returned ~7irea-ry 343 59 161 134 I2.8 -- 3oo 530 2B'- 181 9W8 586
Gross Aloent( 30 00030 o 85 31 9V 33 98. 3528 8 35 297 35 995" 3 r51 7 o1Z. 4- 64 3 ~5 57 5 559 5 9n
CostS of ponerin research- not shown abve-. see. m
office 5pace- FY 62-6S 360 S7, 6 ( ri^qQ withext chztrqc bu L)C-cLerkde^)) GROSL-R-7'I?
0fjc^e spa-c,-- Fy "3 5- (sO9 ehF-66. btj R9 L5 .inr-44 In FY 0, averheild acove)
Office spaOc F'( 70-7 475" sz ft- (prev b dedb 65b A A t pprcprLaftn dej ctoh &t W.O. level)
5tdarf oest FY61 41988
Transer of station cost PFYI t 9'-l4
TFrefei of station ce>5t Fr68 42-634 .
Office reodelhP Fy 69 4 13
PumhaZe *f-rurn re FY a4 232-1
TFtdJl re&- e.fae rtse not t 6 o bov/: '998 7
1 zarr .4 sfrtjd rFP-sZ. hrdroretcr t refurne( t f 5SV/ Sto m FY 68, 4o.n9 ~uA rucelWees eAer eqW ptnent.
i Wheeler 34-MAck experinenttj opiti( caliper wus retirmeA t; 5E Staft#a. in FY 7,
I Wle s5ciente.-. Gtlclator adA cacd reakdecr tas rerne4 t& Se St fion to FY 7q-,
a-ttire secfarte*S& ficddd *In overheg4 s5on above C6S5-4):
Mrs To ce- 5. Keith [J. 10i/G/68 11/29/29
Mrs Kdatrj G. Lewis [C.A 3 8/70 -1/8/72-
Miss CrnthIaL Moere- 5/7/72. -7/9/72.
Mrs Nonk AB,t tck-bee.-[.H] 7/10/7Z -1Z/i/ 72-.
Ms 5Susava A. ts 1 2/+/72. -12/8/73.


I




Attach ment 2-.


FISCAL


YEAR


Cornputer Sstm '62- '3 ')G '5 '67 'G 'C9 '70 '71 '17? '73 _7Z
fobs 116
IBM 704 Hours 7J9
(ell Mohort) )DoHlLs 503 ______________ _______ _______ ______
IJB 233 M85 Z73 37 388 172.'
IBM 70f Hour5 5.19 10.65 6.13 (6.73 7 351
(_SYS) [Dollr_ .1079* 25-4* 1409 156l 1297 828
IBM 36' H. 151
o05 3c0) LDoItars 9_6
fJobs 38 75
CDC 0O00 hur .31 .38
(SCOPE) lDolr Iz rs _____ ______ _
jobs 2.00 175" 26 Z.0 20
unvwc 18 o 151 2.30 L1 1.04-
(Exec-) LoTelar 1_____00 oo 1Zo 70 10Q8 1O8____
c J-bs 10O 156 139 167
Uwacb 1108 Hurs *88 1.16 1.21 .1lf
Exec. 8) L Dollar5 378 527 4~Z ;6-
jYbs 116 233 28S3 2.73 3Z7 426 332. 200 315- l420 399 447
"ThMa'nF vrAr Hous 7.19 5.1 10.5 6.13 6.75 5.95 21.-0 4.44 2.39 3*.6 2.32 2.18
Dollars 5303 1o79 254 1409 151 5 11 0 3 2191 1670 1750-_
Cornpuic-celt costs 40 100 o o5" 3oo 0oo oL600 098 q99 1332. 1392. 1 5 2.
(contTractpoqrnwau ______________ a .....


Annual compti n ,costs $


503


1179


170


1 691


Sndicaes 7090 used ,nsBed of 709-,


Computer Usqae and Costs t PRoneerinq Research in Forest Mensuration


33D7


'o0lt-


S/73r


l ^I


LoOZ


354-9









APPENDIX A
PUBLICATIONS RESULTING FROM PIONEERING RESEARCH
IN FOREST MENSURATION CY 1961 1973



(1) Grosenbaugh, L.R. 1961. Of trees, space, time, and knots. Ames
Forester 48:20-23. [At least 7 different classes of variables
affecting timber quality can be recognized, but the relative
importance of each and the optimum condition vary with end-
product. Some aspects of quality are technological and
abrupt -- unacceptable end products are derived from timber
below certain quality threshholds. Other aspects are economic
and continuous -- costs eat into profits as quality gradually
drops. Silviculture affects quality of existing stands largely
through allocation of growing space, selection of stems for
retention, length of rotation, and pruning. A prognosis of
the impact of quality considerations on a regional silviculture
is made.]

(2) Davis, K.P., P.A. Briegleb, J. Fedkiw, and L.R. Grosenbaugh. 1962.
Determination of allowable annual timber cut on forty-two
western national forests: an analysis of objectives, problems,
and methods with recommendations. USDA Forest Service,
Washington, D.C. Publication M-1299, 40 pp. [Report of Board
of Review appointed by Chief of Forest Service with objectives
as specified in title.]

(3) Grosenbaugh, L.R. 1963. Optical dendrometers for out-of-reach
diameters: a conspectus and some new theory. Forest Science
Monograph 4, 47 pp. [Three main classes of optical dendrometers
are discussed: forks, calipers, and rangefinders. Noncoincident
or nonmagnifying dendrometers have little promise. Some improved
designs with promise are described. A new exact theory for
rangefinder-dendrometers is presented for the first time and is
translated into a high-speed computer program converting instru-
ment readings to volume, surface and length by grade within tree.
Field tests suggest that rangefinder-dendrometer volumes will
vary no more than + 4 percent from individual tree check measure-
ments.]

(4) 1963. Instant octal accounting: byproduct of
forest mensuration research. USDA Forest Service Research
Note PSW-28, 23 pp. [Describes a research accounting program
adapted from a program for analyzing forest growth into
component parts on an IBM 7090 computer. It arrays thousands
of unsorted items in a few seconds; accumulates obligations,
expenditures, and transfers by account within fund for each
responsible individual; and prints subtotals, balances, totals,
and an arrayed list of component items.]


-1





2 -



(5) 1964. Some suggestions for better sample-tree-
measurement. Proc. Soc. Amer. Foresters Annual Meeting October
20-23, 1963, at Boston, Massachusetts, pp. 36-42. [A revolutionary
new approach to sample-tree-measurement has been made possible by
recent developments in sampling theory, improved dendrometry,
fresh looks at old geometric problems, adoption of more suitable
primary units of measure, and more complete exploitation of high-
speed computer capabilities. Major benefits from use of the
suggested procedures will lie in the field of quality assessment,
appraisal, and sale of standing timber, but with slight adaptation
the component techniques will be useful for other types of forest
inventory. Additionally, it seems likely that career opportu-
nities for men with certain special mensurational skills will
improve as advantages of the new procedures become more widely
known.]

(6) 1964. STX -- Fortran-4 program for estimates of
tree populations from 3P sample-tree-measurements. USDA Forest
Service Research Paper PSW-13, 49 pp. (pp. 50 128 comprising
appendices are available only on microcard edition that includes
initial 49 pp. also). [See later edition, reference (13) below,
for summary.]

(7) 1965. Three-pee sampling theory and program
"THRP" for computer generation of selection criteria. USDA Forest
Service Research Paper PSW-21, 53 pp. [Theory necessary for
sampling with probability proportional to prediction ("three-pee",
or "3P") is first developed and then exemplified by numerical
comparisons of several estimators when probabilities for every
possible combination of sample outcomes can be calculated.
Program "THRP" for computer generation of appropriate 3P-sample
selection criteria is described, and convenient random integer
dispensers are illustrated.]

(8) 1965. Generalization and reparameterization of
some sigmoid and other nonlinear functions. Biometrics 21:708-
714. [Many functions used in describing growth can be derived
from a single new function that is a power of the difference
between a weighted elementary function and a power of its exponen-
tial. Also, new parameters are suggested for the simplest two-
asymptote, third-degree form of the Pearl-Reed function so that
parameters specifying curvature are made independent of those
specifying location of point of inflection. Finally, general
expressions for 'derivatives, partial derivatives, and points of
inflection are given in terms of new parameters for both the new
growth function and the Pearl-Reed function to facilitate computer
improvement of initial parameters arbitrarily chosen to describe
observed behavior.]






3 -



(9) 1966. Tree form: definition, interpolation,
extrapolation. Forestry Chronicle 42:444-457. [Definition of
tree form requires numerous measurements of height and stem
radius or diameter distributed over the entire"tree stem. *'
Further definition may involve a graphic plot of stem profile,
an analytic expression of radius as a polynomial or rational
polynomial (Tchebycheff) function of distance from apex, or the
direct numeric evaluation of the major integrals of tree form
(length, surface, volume). Linear, quadratic, or harmonic
interpolation over short intervals can assume a monotonic one-
parameter function without introducing serious error. Extra-
polation should employ a two-parameter function passing through
the origin and based on 3 measured pairs of coordinates.
Appropriate surface and volume integrals are given for the
convex right hyperbola (XY-QX+PY=0) and the concave parabola
(Y2+QX-PY=0).]

(10) 1967. Choosing units of measure. Proceedings
of a conference on young-growth forest management in California,
March 1-3, 1967. University of California Agriculture Extension
Service, pp. 143-146. [The choice of units of measure in forest
management involves number theory (binary vs. decimal base) and
the relative specificity, consistency, simplicity, and additivity
of alternative scales. A trio (volume, surface, length) and a
pair (weight, length) of units of measure are far more efficient
than any of the single inconsistent scales now used (such as
board feet, cords, or pounds) that are nonlinear or nonadditive.
with respect to costs and product outturn.]

(11) __. 1967. The gains from sample-tree selection with
unequal probabilities. Jour. Forestry 65:203-206. [A simple
model'using urns and marbles facilitates derivation of an
apparently novel expression for the nongeometric components of
variance of samples selected with equal or unequal probabilities.
Further analysis of the expression permits broad conclusions as
to the relative merits of equal-probability techniques compared
to such unequal probability techniques as geometric cluster-
sampling with probability proportional to size, nongeometric
cluster-sampling with probability proportional to prediction, and
list-sampling. Probability sampling in these three major forms
is not being fully exploited in forestry. It is hoped that a
simplified picture of potential benefits may dispel latent mis-
givings.]


* b '






4 -



(12) .. 1967. REX -- Fortran-4 system for combinatorial
screening or conventional analysis of multivariate regressions.
USDA Forest Service Research Paper PSW-44, 47 pp. [REX is an
expansible computerized system that provides data needed in
regression or covariance analysis of as many as 50 variables, 8
of which may be dependent. Alternatively, it can screen
variously generated combinations of independent variables to
find the regression with the smallest mean-squared-residual,
which will be fitted if desired. The user can easily program
additional processing.]

(13) .1967. STX -- Fortran-4 program for estimates
of tree populations from 3P sample-tree-measurements. USDA
Forest Service Research Paper PSW-13, 2nd edition revised, 76
pp. [STX 5-1-67 is an improved and greatly expanded version of
the original 1-10-64 program and publication. It converts any
kind of dendrometer measurements of 3P-sample or plot-sample
trees to population values by strata with optional processing
to obtain graded outturn in primary units, product units, and
dollars. Tree options include choice of several projections
for upper stem and for bark thickness (bark can be included or
excluded), and choice of measuring stump and d.b.h. either
directly or with optical dendrometry.]

(14) 1968. Tree measuring techniques (in 1968
McGraw-Hill Yearbook of Science and Technology, pp. 190-191).
[A summary of the new techniques for tree measurement, includ-
ing dendrometers, 3P-sampling, use of primary units of measure,
and relation to cost and outturn.]

(15) ._____________ 1968. Sample-tree-measurement: a new science.
Forest Farmer 28(3):10-11. [Recent advances in the techniques
for measuring timber employ 3P-sampling, dendrometry,'a trio or
pair of primary units of measure, and large high-speed computers.
They eliminate the need for using volume tables or for scaling
felled timber. Product-yield, value, and cost can be linearly
related to combinations of volume, surface, length, and weight
much more satisfactorily than to traditional units of measure
such as board-feet or cords.]

(16) 1969. More on Fortran random number generators.
.Comm. ACM 12:639. [Marsaglia and Bray's one-line instruction
for obtaining least-positive product-residue (modulo 2**36) on
the Univac 1108 (Comm. ACM 11:757-759) does not give correct
residue once a change in sign has occurred. The author gives an
appropriate Fortran instruction for a multiplicative pseudo-
random number generator with residues correct for the Univac
1108 computer.]







5 -



(17) 1970. BUDJ -- Fortran-4 program for budgeting
cost of each employee by funds chargeable and cost schedules
applicable during each pay period. USDA Forest Service Research
Paper SE-68, 42 pp. [Describes how to use a budgeting program
adapted from a high-speed-computer dendrometry program. Budget
estimates are made by simulating conditions effective in each of
27 biweekly pay periods. Wage or salary tables plus fringe
benefits can be changed no more often than twice after initial
establishment, but employee grade or status can be changed as
frequently as desired. Actual and projected employee costs can
be distributed among no more than 99 cost-accounts or appropri-
ations.]

(18) 1970. Design of growth studies in mixed stands.
USDA Forest Service, Proceedings of a Workshop for Research on
Growth of Mixed Hardwood Stands, Athens, Georgia, March 10-11,
1970, pp. 57-62. [Discusses 3 major kinds of growth study:
(1) estimation of past growth by valid sampling; (2) identifi-
cation of model best accounting for observed growth differences;
(3) extrapolation of past growth into future by simulating a
rational or arbitrary model. Twelve recommendations for model
builders are made.]

(19) 1970. REX -- a system for regression analysis.
Proceedings of SHARE XXXIV, at Denver, Colorado, March 2-6,
1970, pp. 1543-1547. [Describes how to use an expansible
computerized system for regression analysis written in ANSI
Fortran. Discusses consequences of screening all possible linear
combinations of independent variables to find the regression with
the minimum mean-squared-residual. Contrasts results of using
this criterion against results of using conventional upward or
downward stepwise criteria in Monte Carlo simulation.j

(20) 1971. STX 1-11-71 for dendrometry of multistage
3P samples. USDA Forest Service Publication FS-277, 63 pp.
[Describes 1-11-71 modifications of STX 5-1-67 that allow
combining 3P sampling and dendrometry with multistage sampling
where the initial stage may involve area-sampling or point-
sampling. Updated STX 1-11-71 also substitutes a Fortran sort
for system sort/merge and provides for within-tree sorting and
subtotalling by grades if desired.]


* >




.4 I .


6 -



(21) 1972. Computer systems, access, and adminis-
tration. Proceedings of a Workshop on Computer and Information
Systems in Resources Management Decisions. USDA Forest Service
and Cooperative State Research Service, Washington, D.C., pp. 22-
34. [Briefly describes alternative computer systems currently
available (hardware, firmware, software) and discusses merits of
inhouse processing (purchasing of system, exclusive use of leased
system) versus metered processing on best available outside
systems. Either type of processing may involve several kinds of
access -- batch, remote batch, demand (conversational or desk-
calculator made), and real-time. The current limitations on
teleprocessing and likely improvements are discussed, along with
some considerations of the question of computer system financing
and administration.]

(22) 1973. Metrication and forest inventory. Jour.
Forestry 71:84-85. [A multistage forest inventory system with
the dual capability of accepting either U.S. or metric inputs and
outputting summarized results in either type of units is described.
Interconversion of angle-gauge factors from U.S. to metric or
metric to U.S. is facilitated by a compact table.]

(23) 1973. Forest measurements (in 1973 McGraw-Hill
Yearbook of Science and Technology, pp. 193-194). [Six major
advances in forest mensuration techniques made in the past few
years are discussed. Included are: (1) better dendrometers;
(2) application of multistage-3P sampling or list-sampling to
individual tree stems; (3) application of multistage-3P sampling
or list-sampling to areas subjected to aerial photography; (4)
application of multistage-3P sampling or list sampling to
estimation of growth, harvest, and mortality (CFI); (5) appli-
cation of 3P-dendrometry or point-3P dendrometry to felled tree
studies and to product outturn; (6) development of a single
broad-spectrum computer program capable of processing a wide
variety of sampling designs and tree measurement techniques.]











Several of the above publications resulted from continuing research started
by the author prior to the 1961 initiation of the pioneering unit in
mensuration research -- earlier publications developed theory of point- and
line-sampling, inventory techniques such as the diagnostic tally, and
concepts of height-accumulation, giant-tree, and a linear model for allow-
able cut computation.