The Fats and oils situation

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Title:
The Fats and oils situation
Physical Description:
301 v. : ill. ; 26-28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
frequency varies

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Oil industries -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Oils and fats, Edible -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
FOS-1 (Mar. 1937) - FOS-301 (Oct. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-<Oct. 1977>; Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, <May 1978>-July 1980; Economics and Statistics Service, Oct. 1980.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board," Oct. 1977-Oct. 1980.
General Note:
Title from caption.
General Note:
Item 21-D.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502965
oclc - 01588232
notis - ACS2699
lccn - 46039840 //r82
issn - 0014-8865
sobekcm - AA00005305_00073
Classification:
lcc - HD9490.U5 A33
ddc - 380.1/41385/0973
System ID:
AA00005305:00100

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Fats and oils outlook & situation


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Full Text
1 1 -


11958 OUTLOOK ISSUEI


November 1957
FOR RELEASE
E NOV. 21, A. M.


FATS and OILS .


SITUATION -'- -

FOS-187 7T -


~ I..:I"


4.',
\* -


c"'


Published bimonthly by
AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


AMSJ
PRODUCTION OF MAJOR
FATS AND OILS


eO-O' Linseed oil*
I- I .,\ _
'0 00MOR *0R'R M 0


1960

MARKETING SERVICE


1940 1945 1950 1955
YEAR BEGINNING OCTOBER
INCLUDES OIL EQUIVALENT OF OILSEEDS EXPOdTEDO 95I FORECAST


NEG. 4603-57 (101 AGRICULTURAL


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE








Table 1.- Wholesale prices per pound for fats, oils, and glycerin at specified markets


Item



Babassu oil, tanks, New York ..............................
Butter, creamery, Grade A (92-score) bulk, New York ..........
Butter, creamery, Grade B, (90-soore) bulk, Chicago ..........
Castor oil, dehydrated, tanks, Noe York ......................
Castor oil, No. 1, tanks, f.o.b. New Jersey mills ............
Castor oil, No. 3, technical, drums, oarlots, f.o.b. N.Y ....
Coconut oil, crude, tank cars, Pacific Coast, f.o.b. mill j_ .
Coconut oil, crude, tanks, Atlantic ports (tax included) ....
Coconut oil, Cochin type, refined, drums, N.Y. (tax included).
Cod oil, Newfoundland, drums, Nwo York .......................
Codliver oil, medicinal, U.S.P., barrels, Ne York ..........

Corn oil, crude, tank cars, f.o.b. Midwest mills ...........
Corn oil, refined, drums, New York ..........................
Cottonseed oil, crude, tank cars, f.o.b. 8.E. mills ..........
Cottonseed oil, p.s.y., bleachable, tank cars, New York 2/ ...
Cottonseed-oil foots, raw (50 percent T.F.A) delivered East ..
Cottonseed oil, refined, drums, New York ....................
Degras, common, barrels, New York ..........................
Glycerin, soaplye, basis 80 percent, tanks, New York .........
Grease, A white, tank cars, f.o.b. Chicago ................
Grease, yellow, tank care, f.o.b. Chicago ...................

lard, loose, tank care, Chicago ..............................
Lard, prime steam, tierces, Chicago ..........................
lard, refined, i-pound cartons, Chicago ......................
Linseed oil, raw, tank cars, Minneapolis ....................
Linseed oil, raw, drums, carlots, New York ...................
Margarine, white, domestic vegetable, Chicago ................
Menhaden oil, light pressed, tanks, New York .................
Neat's-foot oil, 300, drums, carlots, New York ..............
Oiticica oil, drums, f.o.b. New York .........................
Oleo oil, extra, drums, New York .............................
Oleostearine, barrels, New York ............................

Olive oil, imported, edible, drums, New York .................
Olive oil foots, domestic, drums, carlots, New York ..........
Palm oil, Congo, drums, f.o.b. New York 3/ ...................
Peanut oil, crude, tank cars, f.o.b. S.E. mills .............
Peanut oil, refined, drums, New York .........................
Rapeseed oil, refined (denatured), tanks, New York ...........
Sardine oil, crude, tanks, Pacific Coast ....................
Sesame oil, refined, drums, Nev York .........................
Soybean oil, crude, tank cars, f.o.b. Midwest mills ..........
Soybean oil, refined, drums, New York ........................
Shortening, containing animal fat, 1-pound cartons, Chicago ..
Shortening, cottonseed hydrogenated, 10-drum lots, New York .
Sperm oil, natural, 456, drums, New York .....................

Tall oil, refined, tanks, works ..............................
Tallow, edible, loose, Chicago ...............................
Tallow, inedible, packers' prime, tank cars, f.o.b. Chicago ..
Tallow, No. 1, inedible, Chicago ............................
TDng oil, imported, drums, carlots, f.o.b. New York ..........
Tung oil, tanks, New York ..................................


October : 1957
1955 :1956 : August :September October
Cents Cents Cents Cent cents

15.2 -
58.6 62.3 60.5 62.4 60.5
57.4 60.0 58.9 60.5 59.1
20.8 24.4 28.6 28.6 28.2
16.2 19.8 23.5 23.5 23.1
15.5 17.6 22.8 22.8 22.4
14.1 13.8 15.4 15.9 12.9
15.5 15.1 16.1 16.6 16.8
19.5 19.0 19.2 19.5 ---
11.0 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.5
19.5 18.9 19.5 19.5 19.5

12.1 13.7 13.0 12.9 13.1
19.2 19.6 18.5 18.8 20.0
11.3 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.7
13.5 15.5 15.0 14.8 14.9
1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4
19.1 19.2 18.8 18.5 19.5
11.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
20.0 15.0 15.9 15.8 14.5
7.8 6.8 7.9 7.9 8.0
7.1 5.8 7.2 7.2 7.2

10.7 12.2 12.3 12.5 11.9
11.8 11.9 12.8 12.0 11.5
:15.3 16.9 16.4 17.5 16.3
:13.0 13.1 13.3 14.2 14.8
:16.0 16.4 16.9 17.8 18.4
:26.0 26.2 27.0 27.0 27.0
:10.6 11.5 11.5 11.9 12.0
30.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0
:14.8 15.8 19.0 19.1 19.1
:14.8 18.3 19.4 19.4 19.0
:11.6 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.2

32.0 44.7 40.0 35.7 36.0
: --- --- --- --- -
13.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0
17.5 15.5 13.8 13.8 15.5
24.2 19.9 19.4 19.4 21.7
15.8 19.5 18.7 18.5 16.6
8.8 8.5 -
36.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0
:10.9 12.5 11.4 11.3 11.3
:17.3 16.6 17.5 17.1 17.0
:26.8 29.8 30.5 30.5 30.4
:19.8 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.2
16.5 15.8 17.2 17.2 17.2

5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5
9.5 12.3 12.3 11.7 11.6
7.8 6.8 7.8 7.9 8.0
7.2 6.1 7.2 7.4 7.4
:26.8 23.8 25.3 25.3 25.3
: 25.2 22.3 23.8 23.8 23.8


y/ Public La 05-235 suspends the 3 cent tax imposed by section 511 (a) beginning October 1, 1957 and
ending June 30, 1960%
2 Near-by futures.
STax excluded. lax does not apply to palm oil used in the manufacture of iron or steel products, tin and
terne plate. Since 1943 these are the major uses of palm oil.

Prices compiled from Oil, Paint, and Drug Reporter; he National Provisioner; The Journal of Comerce
(New York); Wall Street JoiT Ccago P edition; reports of Bureau of Labor Staitis c, ad reports of
Commodity Stabilization Service. Excise taxes and duties included where applicable.


Fos-187


- 2 -


NDOEMBE 1957





FOS-187 3 NOVEMBER 1957


THE FATS AND OILS SITUATION

Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, November 15, 1957



: CONTENTS

Page Page:
: Summary .................... 3 Trends in Consumption
: Outlook ..................... 5 of Food Fats ................... 49
: Soybeans ................... 5 Household Use of Food Fats ...... 52
: Cottonseed ............... 19 Appendix ....................... 55
: Lard ....................... 22 Aster Yellows Disease of Flax .. 55
:Peanuts .................... 34 Oilseeds Processed by Techniques 56 :
: Flaxseed ................... 37 Marketing Research ............. 58
: Inedible Tallow............. 42 Utilization Research ........... 61
List of Special Articles




SUMMARY

The outlook for food fats and oils in the 1957-58 marketing year is
dominated by larger supplies than a year earlier of all major food fats
except cottonseed oil. Beginning stocks of food fats on October 1, 1957 were
smaller than a year earlier but are expected to be more than offset by
increased output during the year. The total supply of food fats in 1957-58
based on current estimates of crush and soybean exports is forecast at about
11.8 billion pounds compared with nearly 11.7 last year. In addition as
much as 50 million bushels of soybeans (equivalent to about 550 million
pounds of oil) in excess of probable market outlets will be available and
are likely to remain on hand next September 30.

Exports of food fats and oils (including the oil equivalent of soy-
beans) through September 1958 may be a little less than the record 2.9 billion
pounds shipped abroad in the year just ended The movement abroad will be
encouraged by lower prices than in 1956-57 but will be dependent in a large
measure on Government programs which enable foreign nations to use their own
currency to purchase fats and oils in the United States. Exports of edible
vegetable oils under Public Law 480 in 1957-58 probably will be as high
as and may exceed a year earlier. Shipments under ICA programs and
regular commercial transactions, however, are expected to be a little
lower. Competition in world markets will be keener than in the two pre-
ceding marketing years as exportable supplies in several countries will be







larger during 1957-58. Also, with strong anti-inflationary measures being
taken in many countries of Western Europe and in Japan, consumer incomes
abroad may not increase as rapidly in 1958 as in most recent years. While
current prospects point to lower exports than last year, any significant
changes in estimates of foreign oil crops or in political developments could
materially affect the demand for U. S. fats, oils and oilseeds.

The 1957 crop of soybeans is estimated at a record L91 million bushels,
at least 35 million more than last year. Crushings may reach 325 million
bushels and exports around 90 million, compared with 316 million and 85 mil-
lion bushels, respectively, in the year just ended. If 32 million bushels
are used on farms, this would leave a carryover as much as 50 million bushels.
A substantial part of these are likely to be in the hands of CCC.

Soybean farm prices during most of the 1957 harvesting season probably"
will average near loan level, as the support price tends to set a floor under
the market. The loan level is slightly less than the national average sup-
port price of $2.09 per bushel. The proportion of the crop marketed early
in the season was smaller than usual because of the late harvest and the
tendency for producers to hold beans. This will mean larger marketing later
which will tend to limit the seasonal upswing in soybean prices, which will
be small unless the fats and oils picture changes significantly. Indications
are that soybean oil prices during the 1957-58 marketing year will average
somewhat less than a year earlier.

Cottonseed production in 1957 is placed at 4,852,000 tons, nearly
11 percent less than last year and the smallest since 1950. Farm prices this
year probably will average near last year's level and above support. Lower
quality this year is a factor tending to offset the price effect of the smaller
supply.

The 1957 peanut crop is estimated at 1,504 million pounds, about
6 percent less than last year. However, carryover stocks were up, so the
total supply is nearly the same as last year and greater than required for
edible and farm uses. CCC will acquire the excess under the price support
program, as was the case last year. Season average prices to farmers are
likely to average near the support program loan value, which is slightly
lower than a year earlier.

Lard output in 1957-58 is estimated at close to 2,750 million pounds,
up around 125 million pounds from last year, chiefly reflecting the small rise
anticipated in hog slaughter, Total supply of lard may be only slightly
larger as carryover stocks on October 1, 1957 were down sharply from a year
earlier. Lard prices through most of the current marketing year probably
will remain under a year earlier as hog slaughter gains momentum. Exports
of lard may not differ significantly from the 591 million pounds shipped
abroad last year. Prospects are that little lard will move out under P.L. 480
programs in 1)957-58.


- 4 -


NOVEMBER 1957


FOS-187








The domestic flaxseed situation for 1957-58 is expected to be tight.
The 1957 crop dropped sharply to 27 million bushels and commercial carryover
stocks were low. Domestic oil use may be equivalent to about 26 million
bushels of flaxseed and another 4 million will be needed for seed and feed.
This would leave even less at the end of the season than the relatively
small commercial carryover at the beginning. Farm prices are expected to
average slightly higher than the $2.99 per bushel received last year.

The outlook for the 1957 tung nut crop is the most favorable in recent
years as the tung orchards were not as seriously hit by early spring freezes
this year. Preliminary estimates indicate a crop of about 35 million pounds
of tung oil and carryover stocks on November 1, 1957, of about 23 million
pounds. Domestic use in recent years has leveled off at around 50 million
pounds annually. Imports of tung oil during the period September 9, 1957 -
October 31, 1958 are restricted to a 26 million pound quota. Farm prices in
1957-58 probably will average near the year earlier level.

Inedible tallow and grease output is expected to remain about the same
in the 1957-58 marketing year as the 3.0 billion pounds total of a year earlier.
Prices in 1957-58 will again depend to a large extent upon export demand,
which is likely to be strong as little change is in prospect for domestic
disappearance,

Domestic disappearance of food fats and oils in 1957-58 is expected to
average around 44.5 pounds (fat content) per person, close to the rate
estimated for 1956-57. Prospects are that the per capital rates for butter,
margarine, lard and shortening will differ little from those indicated for 1956-
57, but a slight increase is likely for the "other edible oils." The con-
sumption rate for these oils -- used mainly in the form of cooking and salad
oils, mayonnaise and French dressings, and possibly "ready-to-eat" foods --
has trended upward.

SOYBEANS

Prospects for 1957-58

Soybean Output in 1957 New
Record; CCC Acquisitions
Likely to be Heavy

Soybean production in 1957 is estimated at a record 491 million
bushels, 8 percent above last year's record high. The huge output is the
result of record acreage for harvest as beans 21.6 million acres and a
record yield. The indicated yield of 22.7 bushels per acre compares with
21.8 bushels last year and the 10-year average of 20.2 bushels per acre.
The previous record yield was 22.3 bushels per harvested acre in 1949.


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957







FOS-187


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Good growing weather for the maturing 1957 crop was especially benefi-
cial to the large late-planted acreage and it improved the yield prospected
The crop was later than usual and a smaller than normal percentage was
harvested by October 1.

The big crop may result in a build-up of soybeans in storage. Until
this year soybean prices have consistently averaged above support levels,
and carryover stocks have been small. Not until 1956-57 did the CCC take
over significant quantities of beans. It acquired about 25 million bushels
on May 31, 1957; but it sold nearly all of them by early August. Because
prospective 1957-58 supplies are in excess of probable uses, soybeans going
under support will be heavy and CCC acquisitions are likely to be substantial.
Most of the soybean carryover next October 1 is likely to be in the hands of
CCC,

1957-58 Soybean
Disappearance and
Carryover Stocks
to Reach New Highs

Supplies of soybeans for the 1957-58 marketing year are estimated at
500 million bushels, at least 40 million more than last year's record and in
excess of estimated total disappearance.

Strong domestic and export demand for edible vegetable oils and
protein feeds will encourage a heavy crush of soybeans in 1957-58 which may
total around 325 million bushels, well within the estimated 370 million
bushel capacity of the industry. A crush this size would be nearly 10 mil-
lion bushels above last year and would produce 3p6 billion pounds of crude
soybean oil and 7.7 million tons of soybean cake and meal.

Crushings of soybeans during 1956-57 totaled 316 million bushels,
almost 12 percent more than the previous season. Soybean processing last
season got off to a rapid start. Crushing reached almost 28 million bushels
in October and the average monthly crush was maintained near that level
through May. The season average oil outturn of 10.9 pounds per bushel of
soybeans crushed compares with 11.1 pounds in 1955-56. The smaller yield was
mainly due to lower oil content of the beans, as about 95 percent of domestic
soybeans are processed by the efficient solvent-extraction technique. (See
statement in Appendix on Oilseeds Processed by Method of Extraction,
1956-57.) Oil outturns during the past five seasons have averaged close to
11 pounds per bushel. The 1956-57 season average yield of soybean meal per
bushel crushed was 47.5 pounds, up 1.5 pounds from the previous year.

Soybean exports in 1957-58, following the upward trend of recent years,
are expected to approximate 90 million bushels compared with 85 million for
the season just ended.

Estimated seed requirements (including feed and other uses) for the
large acreage expected for the 1958 crop may total about 32 million bushels.


-7-


NOVEMBER 1957


FOS-187






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Table 4.- Soybeans: Crushings and yields of oil and meal per bushel crushed, and
price, by months crop years 1950-56


Crushing
Year :
begin-: Oct. Nov. Dec.: Jan. Feb.: Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.: Year
ning : : :
October: : : : :


: Mil. Mil.
: bu. bu.

1950 : 19.6 22.8
1951 : 21.6 23.1
1952 : 22.5 22.0
1953 : 21.3 20.3
1954 : 21.7 22.2
1955 :25.4 25.4
1956 1/: 27.9 26.6
1957


Mil. Mil. Mil.. Mil M M Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu.


25.1 22.5 24.8 22.0
24.0 22.5 21.5 20.1
21.6 18.7 20.4 19.2
20.8 18.9 19.3 17.6
21.5 19.8 19.5 20.0
24.4 24.5 25.4 25.3
28.4 26.6 28.9 27.3


21.3 17.9 17.8 18.8 14.8
19.7 18.6 17.5 17.5 15.0
20.7 17.3 16.3 18.7 15.7
17.5 15.4 15.4 14.8 11.1
21.0 22.1 21.3 19.9 18.7
24.6 22.2 20.4 21.8 19.9
26.5 24.7 24.4 25.4 22.2


24.7
23.2
21.4
20.8
21.2
23.9
27.0


Mil.
bu.

252.0
244.4
234.4
213.2
249.0
283.1
315.9


Yield of oil per bu. crushed


Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb.


1950 : 9.7 9.5
1951 : 10.0 9.8
1952 : 10.0 10.5
1953 : 10.b 10.8
1954 : 10.9 10.8
1955 : 11.0 10.9
1956 1/: 10.d 10.7
1957


9.5
9.6
10.6
10.9
10.8
11.0
10.7


9.6
9.7
10.7
11.0
10.8
11.0
10.7


9.6 9.7 9.7
9.9 10.1 10.1
10.7 10.9 10.0
11.1 11.1 11.0
10.8 10.8 10.9
11.1 11.1 11.1
10.b 10.0 10.9


9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1
10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.4
10.9 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.1
11.0 11.1 11.3 11.2 11.2
10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
11.1 11.2 2 112 11.4 11.1
10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0


Yield of meal per bu. crushed


1950 : 46.3 47.0 46.7
1951 : 46.4 46.5 46.7
1952 : 47.9 47.1 47.4
1953 : 47.5 47.5 47.6
1954 : 46.0 45.7 45.8
1955 : 45.7 46.0 45.4
1956 1/: 47.1 47.5 47.7
1957


47.0
46.9
47.0
47.4
45.7
43.6
47.5


47.1 46.9 46.7
46.8 45.9 46.4
47.4 47.5 47.5
46.5 47.4 47.7
45.6 45.5 45.6
45.9 46.1 46.2
47.3 47.6 48.3


46.9 46.7 46.4
46.5 46.7 46.8
47.3 46.8 47.4
47.5 47.2 47.9
45.7 46.1 46.2
46.4 46.5 46.6
48.0 48.0 47.9


Average price per bu. received by farmers, United States, 2/


: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.

1950 :2.03 2.54 2.70 2.90 3.08 3.10 3.12 3.13 2.98 2.86 2.71
1951 :2.62 2.77 2.83 2.78 2.78 2.76 2.72 2.77 3.02 3.00 3.05
1952 :2.71 2.71 2.75 2.69 2.63 2.81 2.81 2.78 2.66 2.44 2.40
1953 :2.41 2.60 2.81 2.83 2.97 3.22 3.52 3.55 3.49 3.47 3.23
1954 :2.54 2.57 2.57 2.58 2.61 2.54 2.42 2.36 2.32 2.23 2.20
1955 :2.08 2.06 2.11 2.19 2.25 2.38 2.63 2.98 2.87 2.47 2.33
1956 1/: 2.07 2.27 2.27 2.31 2.25 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.18 2.24 2.27
1957


Dol. Dol.


2.59
2.83
2.33
2.51
2.00
2.07
2.13


1/ Preliminary


2/ Includes an allowance for unredeemed loans and purchase agreement deliveries by States.


: Lb. Lb.


9.7
10.0
10.8
11.0
10.9
11.1
10.9


46.9
47.7
47.6
47.9
46.1
47.1
47.6


46.8
46.9
47.3
46.3
45.9
46.2
46.5


46.8
46.7
47.4
47.4
45.8
46.0
47.5


2.47
2.73
2.72
2.72
2.46
2.22
2.17


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957


- 9 -







If estimated requirements for crushing, export and other uses should
be substantially accurate, carryover stocks of soybeans on October 1, 1958,
might be as much as 50 million bushels.

Soybean Export Demand to
Continue Strong

Exports have become an increasingly important outlet for soybeans and
soybean products. About 35 percent of last year's crop was shipped abroad --
85 million bushels of soybeans (nearly 20 percent of the crop) and the equiv-
alent of another 75 million bushels as soybean oil. The soybean equivalent
of meal exports is much less than that for soybean oil -- totaling less than
20 million bushels in 1956-57.

Foreign demand for U. S. soybeans is based about as much on the need
for the protein they contain as for the oil. For example, soybeans in
Japan, our leading customer, are used principally for making food products
and provide an essential part of the protein in the Japanese diet.

Soybeans are crushed for oil in Western Europe, but as in the United
States the value of the meal produced is about as great as the value of the
oil. European demand for protein feed has increased sharply in recent years
as rising consumer incomes have led to a greater demand for meat. U. S.
soybeans are in a strong competitive position because they have nearly
always been competitively priced and because many foreign exporting countries
restrict exports of oilseeds in favor of the oil or meal, while European
countries have a large crushing capacity and prefer the raw material.

Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and Canada, our major customers, took
63 million bushels from the U. S. last year, or 74 percent of the 1956 ex-
ports.

Factors tending to influence U. S. exports of soybeans in 1957-58 fall
on both sides of the balance. Those favoring a continuation of the upward
trend that has persisted for many years include record supplies and lower
support price. Nearly 2 million bushels will be shipped to Poland this
marketing year from a loan received from the Export-Import Bank in June.
Some were shipped prior to October 1, 1957.

These favorable factors could be partly offset by sharply improved
foreign supplies of alternative seeds such as peanuts and rapeseed. Appar-
ently part of last year's rise in shipments to France and Scandinavia can
be attributed to small supplies of domestic rapeseed. Denmark is likely to
increase her imports of beans from the U. S. to provide raw material for her
expanding crushing industry. This is likely to adversely affect U. S. ex-
ports to Germany since Denmark may reduce her purchases of soybean meal
from Germany. Germany consumes practically all the oils produced from
soybeans but exports about 75 percent of the meal, mainly to Scandinavian
countries, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. U. S. exports of soybeans to
Europe may be unfavorably affected by recent signs of slackening in the rapid
growth of the European economy.


- 10 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957






FOS-187


11 NOVEMBER 1957

Table 5.- Soybean oil: Supply and disposition and oil equivalent of
exports of soybeans, 1947 to 1956 1/


: Supply : Disposition i Soybean
Year : : : Domestic il
beginni Pro- Imports : Stocks Total : Exports : disap- equivalent
October duction : October 1 : pearance of exports
:Mil. lb. Mil. b. Mil. lb. Mil, lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb.

1947 :1,534 2/ 201 1,738 112 1,530 27
1948 : 1,807 96 1,903 300 1,490 225
1949 1,937 113 2,050 291 1,646 128
1950 2,,l5 -- 113 2,567 490 1,906 272
1951 2,444 2/ 171 2,615 271 2,150 167
1952 :2,536 _/ 194 2,730 93 2,L62 320
1953 2,350 -- 174 2,525 71 2,326 416
1954 : 2,711 -- 127 2,838 50 2,609 666
1955 3,143 -- 179 3,322 556 2,539 741
1956 3/ 3,431 -- 227 3,658 807 2,565 947
1957 : 286
/Totals computed from unrounded data.
Less than 500,000 pounds.
Preliminary

Table 6.- Soybean oil: Utilization, year beginning October,
1950-1956 and calendar year, 1947-56 /
: Food uses : onfood use Total
Year : : Drying a Foote domestic
beginning Shorten- : Margar- Other Total oil : and Other disap-
October: ing : ine s : a s : : :
October:s ing in : : products lose pearance
Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. b. lb. ilb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. Ib.

1950 : 797 461 302 1,560 205 87 54 1,906
1951 800 579 370 1,748 238 97 67 2,150
1952 : 879 735 461 2,078 252 106 26 2,462
1953 : 904 661 453 2,018 215 84 9 2,326
1954 979 741 508 2,228 259 107 15 2,609
1955 2/ : 803 725 594 2,122 290 107 21 2,539
1956 / : 764 836 606 2,206 226 107 25 2,565
Calendar :
year
1947 : 705 228 248 1,181 159 69 12 1,151
1948 : 708 225 240 1,203 162 73 35 1,473
1949 713 257 239 1,210 220 80 22 1,531
1950 : 81 312 293 1,446 213 82 27 1,769
1951 : 731 473 331 1,536 194 84 28 1,842
1952 : 851 652 408 1,911 209 104 75 2,299
1953 : 903 726 498 2,128 242 101 25 2,496
1954 918 665 419 2,002 209 86 36 2,334
1955 930 746 584 2,260 274 108 8 2,650
1956 2/ 781 751 538 2,070 301 107 27 2,506


/ Totals computed from unrounded numbers.

2/ Preliminary.







Japan increased her imports of soybeans from the U. S. by 3.5 million
bushels in 1956-57. Because Japan is short of dollar exchange, little if
any further expansion is expected in imports of U. S. soybeans in 1957-58.

U. S. soybean exports to Canada in 1956-57 set a new high. Canadian
production, which is less than imports from the United States, fell off some-
what and her exports of soybeans and products rose to a new peak. The 1957
Canadian soybean crop is up nearly a million bushels, or 15 percent. Unless
Canada can again increase her exports of beans and products, our shipments to
that country are not likely to go up.

As usual, one of the biggest question marks in the outlook for U. S.
exports is the probable level of competition from Communist China. The
Chinese are exporting less soybeans and other oilseeds because of limited
production and because of an apparent need to increase domestic food supplies.
There is a possibility that exports may decline further in 1957-58 as the
1957 peanut crop is reported to be down about 15 percent from last year and
there appears to be little change in the size of the soybean crop.

On balance, it appears likely that exports of soybeans during the
current marketing year may increase slightly.

Soybean Farm Prices Near
Support; Any Seasonal Price
Rise Likely to be Small

Prices to farmers for 1957 crop soybeans are being supported at a
national average farm price of $2.09 per bushel, 6 cents less than a year
earlier. The support is equal to 70 percent of the January 15, 1957, parity
price compared with 75 percent of parity at which the 1956 crop was supported.
Loans and purchase agreements are available through January 1958. Farmers
have through May 31, 1958 to redeem loans.

Farm prices of new crop soybeans averaged $2.04 per bushel in October,
about equal to the national support loan level. Farm prices during most of
the 1957 harvesting season probably will average near the loan level as the
support price tends to set a floor under the market. Smaller early marketing
of soybeans this year than usual will limit the seasonal upswing in soybean
prices, which will be modest unless the fats and oils picture changes signifi-
cantly. Prices next spring and summer will depend to a considerable extent
on the size of competing foreign crops, the prospects for domestic crops in
1958, and international developments.

There is usually a seasonal variation in prices received by farmers
for soybeans, reflecting in part storage practices. In the 10 crop years
1947-56, January farm prices averaged around 12 percent above prices for
the preceding October. Last year farm prices started from an October low
of $2.07 per bushel and advanced to a seasonal peak of $2.31 in January.


- 12 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957







Prices subsequently slid off somewhat but remained relatively stable through-
out the rest of the marketing year, averaging $2.17 for the entire 1956-57
season. The stability was due in part to the orderly marketing of beans by
farmers.

Farmers Storing Record Quantities
of 1957 Crop Soybeans

Soybean farmers are storing a record quantity of beans rather than
marketing them at harvest. By doing so they take advantage of any seasonal
rise in price, using the support program, under which storage loans or pur-
chase agreements are available, to protect themselves against declines.
Because of the strong holding action, farm stocks on January 1, 1958 probably
will be around 200 million bushels, a substantial portion of which is likely
to be under CCC loan. The previous record for farm stocks on January 1
occurred in 1957 when farmers held 169 million bushels of the 1956-57 soybean
output.

Soybean Oil Prices in 1957-58
Probably Will Vary Less and
Average Lower Than a
Year Earlier

A sharp rise in soybean oil prices from the harvest time low similar
to the past two seasons is not in prospect for 1957-58, barring unforeseen
increases in foreign demand. Present indications are that bean oil prices
during the 1957-58 marketing year will average somewhat less than in 1956-57,
because some of the demand-strengthening factors are lacking this year.

Last season, bean oil prices (crude, Decatur) moved uo sharply from
12.5 cents per pound in October to a peak of 14ih cents in January as
export demand for edible oils strengthened. Prices declined sharply in April
to 12.1 cents per pound, about the same as at the beginning of the marketing
year. Bean oil prices during May-July were relatively stable at the
11.7-11.9 cent level. They dropped in August and September to about 11.4
cents per pound.

The rise in bean oil prices in the fall of 1956 was in response to
increased demand and somewhat tight supplies, as a backlog of unfilled
P. L. 480 orders along with the blockage of the Suez Canal increased the
demand for U. S. oils and oilseeds. Soybean oil prices in mid-November 1957
were about 2 cents lower than a year before. They are expected to continue
lower than a year ago but may fluctuate less.


- 13 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957






14 -
Table 7.- Soybean oil: Supply, disposition and price, by months,
crop years 1950-56 /


Production
Year :
begin- : Oct Nov. : Dec. Jan. Feb. : ar. Apr. May June July : Aug. Sept.: Year
ning :
October: : : : ::
Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb.

1950 191 216 236 241 216 241 212 210 177 177 188 149 2,454
1951 215 225 222 234 222 218 204 199 190 179 179 156 2,444
1952 238 231 227 231 200 222 208 226 190 180 209 174 2,536
1953 230 219 226 228 209 213 195 193 172 173 166 125 2,350
1954 236 240 228 231 214 211 218 229 244 236 219 206 2,711
1955 280 277 2b2 270 271 281 281 273 249 228 249 221 3,143
1956 2/ : 302 285 290 305 287 313 298 290 272 269 277 244 3,431
1957

Stocks, first of month


1950 113 117 132 154 179 202 227 256
1951 171 196 238 281 328 344 354 354
1952 194 200 213 237 253 245 257 261
1953 174 150 163 208 242 233 239 241
1954 : 127 146 157 176 198 201 176 170
1955 179 180 217 218 219 209 213 281
1956 2/ : 227 210 209 233 238 230 248 270
1957 : 286


244 221 212
324 29b 297
292 273 270
231 211 211
159 150 186
296 296 288
298 279 317


Exports


1950 : 21 18 48
1951 30 34 37
1952 : 13 23 17
1953 2 4 3
1954 : 5 4 4
1955 12 31 55
1950 2/ : 82 39 100
1957


17 33
28 25
1 5
19 31
2 4
45 43
88 129


60 52
14 25
7 8
1 2
6 10
58 70
34 20


Domestic disappearance


1950 166 183 166 193 176 183 138 174
1951 159 150 142 170 179 182 189 205
1952 220 195 185 212 208 205 202 192
1953 252 203 178 191 199 176 192 200
1954 212 224 204 205 209 232 220 237
1955 267 209 206 222 236 236 180 210
1956 / : 236 247 166 208 207 166 203 202
1957


122 126 155
208 165 190
205 17b 227
190 173 179
250 193 204
207 179 213
229 197 260


Price per pound, crude, tank cars, f.o.b. midwest mills


Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
S 17.-- 19.6 20.6 21.1 20.5 20.5 19.5 15T? i 45 15.4 14.0 17.8
13.8 13.2 12.6 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.1 10.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.2 11.3
10.9 11.8 12.9 12.7 12.6 13.5 13-7 12.3 11.5 10.3 10.8 11.7 12.1
: 13.3 13.6 12.6 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 13.9 14.2 14.1 14.8 13.5 13.5
: 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.2 12.2 11.8 11.6 12.2 12.6 11.0 11.3 10.6 11.9
: 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 14.3 14.9 15.3 13.6 12.5 11.4 11.3 12.6
12.5 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.0 13.1 12.4 11.7 11.7 11.9 11.4 11.3 12.7


1/ Totals computed from unrounded data. _/ Preliminary.


1,906
2,150
2,462
2,32b
2,b09
2,539
2,565


1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956


NOVEMBER 1957


FOS-187






FOS-187


- 15 -


NOVEMBER 1957


Several factors will stimulate the demand for soybean oil this season
although the demand may not be as strong as last year. Purchases for export
under P. L. 480 during this fall and winter may be substantial. Furthermore,
supplies of competitive cotton oil are somewhat smaller, lower in quality,
and slower in arriving at market since the 1957 crop is late. Another demand
strengthening factor is the short supply of flaxseed this year and its
corollary, higher linseed oil prices, making bean oil prices more competitive
in the drying oils market.

Exports of Edible Oils in
1957-58 May Be Below
Last Year's Record

U. S. exports of cottonseed and soybean oils in 1956-57 reached 1,230
million pounds. This was a new high reflecting heavy domestic supplies, a
large Public Law 480 program that accounted for 45 percent of the exports,
substantial shipments under IdA financing and smaller than usual exportable
supplies of oil from other parts of the world. The Italian olive crop
harvested in late 1956 was below average; the Indian Government would not
allow any exports of peanut oil; there was little movement of oil out of
Argentina; and Chinese exports of oils and oilseeds were down, apparently
because of a general food scarcity in that country.

U. S. exports in 1957-58 are expected again to be large, but
probably below the record level of 1956-57.

The U. S. faces stronger competition from foreign supplies in the
current marketing year. Preliminary estimates indicate bumper crops of pea-
nuts in Nigeria, French West Africa and India for harvest this year. The
total Mediterranean olive crop is expected to be somewhat larger than a year
earlier, with sizable increase in Italy, Greece and Portugal. Reduced produc-
tion of olive oil is likely in Spain, Turkey and Morocco. The 1957 rapeseed
crops in Canada and Western Europe are up materially. Also, with strong
anti-inflationary measures being taken in many countries of Western Europe as
well as in Japan, consumer incomes abroad may not increase as rapidly in 1958
as in most recent years.

Exports of edible oils under P. L. 480 in 1957-58 will approximate or
possibly exceed last year's 549 million pounds. However, exports financed by
the International Cooperation Administration and regular commercial sales may
both be below the 1956-57 levels. Total exports are currently estimated at
about 1,100 million pounds compared with 1,230 million last year. About
45 million pounds of exports under P. L. 480 will consist of programs carried
over from last year. (Brazil 10 million, Colombia 7, Ecuador 4, Pakistan 14,
Spain 7 and Yugoslavia 3 million).








Table 8.- Fats and oils: Estimated world production,average 1935-39,
annual 1954-58 /

Av e ra g e : : : :
Fat or oil 935-39 : 1954 1955 1956 : 1957 : 1958

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
shabort short short short short short
tons tons tons tons tons tons
Edible vegetable oils : 7,750 10,270 10,135 10,900 11,497 11,900
Butter (fat content) : 4,190 3,875 3,855 3,915 4,000 4,075
Lard 3,485 4,160 4,310 4,460 4,520 4,725
Palm oils : 3,650 4,013 4,055 4,220 4,300 4,350
Industrial oils 6 : 1,570 1,383 1,372 1,410 1,818 1,600
Tallow and greases 1,615 2,880 2,965 3,180 3,215 3,240
Marine oils 7/ : 1,055 1,055 1,035 1,090 1,000 1,050
world Total : 23,315 27,636 27,727 29,175 30,350 30,940
United States production : 3,435 6,446 6,855 77295 7,375 7,500
Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
U. S. as a percentage of world : 15 23 25 25 24

SWorld totals for output of edible vegetable and industrial oils as based upon production of oilseeds
less estimated non-crushing uses. No allowance is made for changes in carryover stocks of oilseeds. his
table differs from previous Foreign Agricultural Service tables on world production in that the estimated
outturn of edible vegetable oils and industrial oils is shown in the calendar year when most of the oil be-
comes available. In the past, these items have been shown in the year when the oilseeds were harvested.
U. S. data through most of 1957 include reported production of oil plus oil equivalent of exported oilseeds.
Forecasts for the U. S. in 1958 are based upon availabilities. / Partly estimated. J/ Forecast. k Olive,
cottonseed, peanutsoybeans, sunflower, rapeseed and sesame. 5/ Coconut, palm kernel, palm and babassu
kernels. 6/ Linseed, castor, tung, oiticica, and perilla. 7/Whale, sperm whale, fish and fish livers.

Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service, Fats and Oils Division.


Table 9.- Fats, oils, and oilseeds in terms of oil: World indigenous exports by type,
average 1935-39, annual 1954-58

:Aveirage :
Fat or oil 935-39 1954 1955 1956 1957 / : 1958 2

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
short short short short short short
tons tons tons tons tons tons
Edible vegetable oils 3/ 1,792 1,823 2,086 2,342 2,317 2,400
Palm oils 4: 2,121 2,307 2,339 2,505 2,580 2,630
Industrial oils ./ 935 868 714 600 813 725
Butter (fat content) : /460 400 500 485 440 400
lard 180 292 345 375 330 350
Tallow and greases 245 755 850 985 980 980
Marine oils 7/ 710 745 725 760 725 750
World Total : 6,443 7,190 7,559 8,052 8,185 8,235
United States, exports : 160 1,905 1,990 2,411 2,500 8/2,325
Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
U. S. as a percentage of world 2 2 30 30 --

1 Partly forecast. 2 Forecast. / Olive oil and the following oils and oil content of oilseeds:
cottonseed, peanut, soybeans, sunflower, rapeseed and sesame. / Coconut, palm kernels, palm and babassu.
SLinseed oil and seed, castor oil and seed, tung, oiticica and perilla oils. 6 1934-38 average.
Whale, sperm whale and fish, including fish liver. _/ Practically all of the decline would be in flax-
seed and linseed oil. Little change in U. S. exports of edible vegetable oils and oilseeds is expected frcm
calendar 1957 to calendar 1958. However, exports of edible vegetable oils, excluding oilseeds, in the
1957-58 marketing year (October 1957-September 1958) probably will be moderately lower than the year before.


Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service, Fats and Oils Division.


FOS-1m7


- 16 -


NOVEMBER 1957








Germany and the Netherlands constitute the major market for regular
dollar purchases of U. S. edible oils. Last year this area received 322 mil-
lion pounds, a new high, or nearly 60 percent of exports outside of ICA and
P. L. 480 and a fourth of total exports. Most of the oil is cottonseed oil
used in a high quality margarine in Germany. Peanut oil possibly could be
substituted for cotton oil but there is great reluctance to use other oils.
Reduced supplies of quality cottonseed oil in the U.S. (the crop is 11 per-
cent smaller than last year and the average refining loss probably will be
higher because rain damaged part of the crop) with a consequent upward pres-
sure on prices and large availabilities of competing peanuts from Nigeria may
be reflected in lower exports from the U. S. Rain has greatly delayed the
harvesting of our cotton crop. Large quantities of cottonseed oil moved out
in September-October 1956. Very little went out in the same period this year.

Soybean Meal Supply in 1957-58
To Reach New High; Prices May
Average Near Last Year's Level

Soybean meal supply in 1957-58 is expected to total around 7.8 million
tons compared with 7.6 million last year (table 30). The 1957 soybean crop
is up 8 percent from last year but the volume of beans likely to be crushed
is expected to be only 3 percent larger. Exports of meal in 1957-58 probably
will not differ greatly from the record of 443,000 tons last year, leaving a
little larger supply available for feeding than in 1956-57.

Soybean meal prices sagged considerably during the 1956-57 season to
the lowest level in a decade. They averaged about $47.45 per ton (bulk,
Decatur). Soybean meal prices this fall and winter probably will not differ
significantly from the average of last season. While another big supply of
soybean meal is in prospect for 1957-58, higher livestock prices and the
expected increase in livestock production may help to maintain soybean meal
prices near the level for 1956-57. On the other hand, prospective record
supplies of feed grains along with their lower support prices means lower
prices for feed grains in 1957-58. These feeds compete to some extent with
soybean meal and other oilseed meals.


Soybean Outlook for 1958-59

Soybean Supplies Expected
to be Large in 1958-59

Soybean acreage harvested for beans in 1957 was at a peak, mainly
reflecting the use of land diverted from corn and cotton, which are
under allotments, as well as relatively favorable soybean prices at planting
time. If the harvested acreage in 1958 is about the same as this year
(restrictions on corn, wheat, and cotton will continue in 1958) and growing
conditions and yields are as favorable as in recent years, the soybean crop
would total around 475 million bushels.


FOS-187


- 17 -


NOVEMBER 1957






-18 NOVEMBER 1957

Table 10.- Cottonseed and soybean oils: U. S. exports, Public Law 480
and other, by countries, year beginning October, 1954-56


: 1954


1955


: 1956


Country or Area 1953c: : Public: O r:
: Law : Total Law : er Total Law : : Total
: 480 : 480 : : 480


Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb. lb. lb.

Europe
Germany-Netherlands : 256 --- 313 313 --
Belgium 3 --- 25 25 ---
United Kingdom : 50 --- 2/ 2/ ---
Greece --- --- 9 9 39
Italy : 2/ --- 2 2 26
Spain --- 26 45 71 275
Yugoslavia --- --- --- --- --
Other : 24 --- 12 12 ---


Total

Canada


Latin America

Cuba
Mexico
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
Equador
Peru
Other
Total


All Other

Algeria
Morocco
Spanish Africa
Israel
Turkey
Pakistan
Japan
Others


Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb. lb. Ib.


197 197 --- 322 322
1 1 --- 13 13
2/ --- 7 7
29 68 41 8 49
4 30 153 27 180
156 431 220 115 335
- --- 5 11 36
3 3 3/2 6 8


: 334 26 405 431 340 391 731 441 509 950

73 53 53 --- 59 59 --- 50 50



5 --- 11 11 --- 11 11 --- 13 13
17 --- 1 1 --- 5 5 --- 8 8
:--- 43 61 104 157 0 157 -
7 16 18 34 27 43 70 53 1 54
1 --- 3 3 14 0 14 --- 10 10
1 --- 2 2 8 1 9 7 2 9
1 --- 2/ 2/ 8 0 8 --- 4 4
9 --- o20 O --- 21 21 4L/2 19 21
: 41 59 116 175 214 81 295 62 57 119



: 1 --- 4 4 --- 17 17 --- 15 15
11 --- 9 9 --- 39 39 --- 30 30
: --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 9 9
: / 5/ 0 5 13 0 13 --- --- ---
: --- 27 0 27 --- --- 46 46
--- --- 17 17 --- 1 1 --- 2/
/ --- 3 3 --- 5 5 --- 7 7
: 9 --- 4 4 --- 1 1 --- 4 4


Total : 22 32 37 69 13

Charitable agencies : --- --- 30 30 --
Grand Total : 470 117 642 759 567


63 76 46 65 111

6 6 -
601 1,168 549 681 1,230


/ Includes ICA financing.
2/ Less than 1 million pounds.
3/ Poland.
/ Paraguay.
Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Services, Fats and Oils Division.


FOS -187







Total supplies would be about 525 million bushels if the 1958 crop of
soybeans should be 475 million bushels and if carryover stocks reach 50 mil-
lion bushels. Assuming farm uses at 30 million bushels, about 495 million
bushels would be available for crushing, export, or carryover. This compares
with about 470 million in 1957-58.

Price support for soybeans is discretionary with the Secretary of Agri-
culture. No announcement as to support for the 1958 crop has been made.

COTTONSEED

Prospects for 1957-58

1957 Cottonseed Output Down
Nearly 11 Percent; Farm
Prices Well Above Support

Cottonseed production in 1957 is estimated at 4,852,000 tons, based on
a normal lint-seed ratio. This would be nearly 11 percent less than last year
and the smallest since 1950. The reduced output reflects a drop in the acres
of cotton for harvest to 13,686,000 acres, 12.4 percent less than in 1956 and
the smallest since 1882. About 3 million allotted acres were removed from
production in 1957 and placed under the Soil Bank Program, compared with
1.1 million acres in 1956. Abandonment of the acres in cultivation July 1
totaled 3.8 percent, including that from natural causes and removal from
production to comply with Soil Bank and acreage allotments.

The yield of cotton lint per harvested acre was 413 pounds compared
with 409 pounds last year and the previous high of 417 pounds in 1955.
Diversion of less productive acres, increased use of fertilizer, and shifts
in acreage from lower to higher yielding areas are some of the reasons for the
high national acreage yield per acre. Growing conditions were not as favor-
able this year in most areas and harvesting was hampered by wet weather.
Cotton ginned prior to November 1 represented about L8 percent of the 1957
crop compared with 74 percent last year.

Prices to farmers during the 1957-58 season are being supported by
loans on farm-stored cottonseed at an average of 46 per ton, basis grade
(100), $2.00 less than last year. The program provides for purchases from
producers at an average price of 0L2.00 per ton and from ginners as .T6.00
per ton, basis grade (100). The support price is about 65 percent of the
January 15, 1957 parity price of $71 per ton. In the 1956-57 season there
were no purchases of cottonseed under the support program as farm prices
averaged well above support. Purchases are unlikely in the current year.


- 19 -


_~_~~ __1___ 11__1 iffiw_


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957







Farm prices this year probably will average near last year's level and
above support. Farm prices so far this crop year have not differed greatly
from a year earlier as the quality of the seed has been running somewhat lower.


1957-58 Cottonseed Crushings to Drop;
Cotton Oil Prices Likely to
Average Near Year
Earlier Level

Total supplies of cottonseed in 1957-58 (carryover stocks on August 1,
plus production) are estimated at 5,016,000 tons (table 11). After allowing
roughly 9 percent of the 1957 cottonseed crop for farm uses and exports, the
remainder of the crop will go to the oil mills for crushing and may total
about 4,425,000 tons. A crush this size would produce about 1,500 million
pounds of crude cotton oil and around 2,150,000 tons of cake and meal.

Cotton oil prices (crude Southeast mills) last year during harvest rose
from about 12 cents per pound in the early fall to a peak of 14.5 cents in
January 1957, as a result of the record export demand for edible vegetable
oils and relatively tight supplies. Prices subsequently declined to 12.9
cents per pound in May 1957 but then strengthened as the oil mills shut down
and oil stocks were reduced. Cotton oil prices this fall and winter probably
will average near a year earlier but are likely to be relatively more stable.
They would be maintained by low carryover inventories, lateness of the 1957
crop, a relatively strong domestic demand for cotton oil, and the purchase of
sizable quantities of edible vegetable oils for export under P. L. 480. Large
supplies of competitive soybean oil at lower prices, however, may tend to
check any significant rise in cotton oil prices.

Cottonseed meal supply for the 1957-58 feeding year is estimated at
about 2,400,000 tons compared with 2,490,000 last year. A 150,000 ton reduc-
tion in the prospective output was partly offset by an increase in carryover
stocks. Assuming exports will continue small and allowing for average stocks
at the close of the feeding year, the quantity available for feeding would be
only a little smaller than the 2,226,000 tons fed last year.

Cottonseed meal prices this fall have averagedat the lowest level in
a decade, reflecting in part bigger supplies of other feeds and better pastures
in the South. Prices in 1957-58 may average somewhat below the $55.30 per
ton (bagged, Memphis) of last year.


- 20 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957






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- 21 -


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FOS-187


- 22 -


NOVEMBER 1957


Cottonseed Outlook for 1958-59

Cotton Acreage Allotment in
1958 Same; Marketing
Quota Higher

The Secretary of Agriculture on October 11 proclaimed a national market-
ing quota of 11.9 million bales of cotton for the 1958 crop and a national
acreage allotment of 17.4 million acres, the same as the national allotments
for 1956 and 1957. Under provisions for State allotments, the State totals
are 17.6 million acres. A growers' referendum on the 1958 quotas will be held
on December 10, 1957. At least two-thirds of the farmers voting in the refer-
endum must approve quotas before they may be made effective. If quotas are
turned down, support to eligible growers would drop to 50 percent of parity.

Cottonseed is a by-product of the cotton industry and its supply is
determined primarily by the factors that affect cotton production. Cottonseed
output, therefore, cannot adjust to changing price levels of oilseed and
edible oils.

Cottonseed production in 1958 will tend to be reduced by any cotton
acreage taken out of production and placed under the Soil Bank Program. On
the other hand yields of lint per acre have recently exceeded those from
which the acreage allotment is calculated. Assuming these two influences can-
cel out so that cotton production is the same as the marketing quota, and if
the relationship between lint and cottonseed yields is the same as the average
for the past 5 years, output of cottonseed would total about 4.9 million tons,
about the same as in 1957.

LARD

Prospects for 1957-58

Lard Output Expected to
Rise in 1957-58; Prices
May Average A Little Lower

Lard output in 1957-58 is estimated at close to 2,750 million pounds,
up about 125 million pounds, chiefly reflecting the small rise anticipated in
hog slaughter. Total supply of lard may be only about 75 million pounds
larger than last year as carryover stocks on October 1, 1957 were down sharply.

Hog slaughter is expected to average below last year's rate until late
1957, then to rise above a year earlier in 1958. The increase is likely to be
rather small in the first half of the calendar year, as reports from 10 Corn
Belt States indicate that hog producers had planned to increase sows farrowing
by only 4 percent this fall. Breeding intentions indicate that sows to farrow
in the same States during the 1958 winter quarter (December 1957 through
February 1,53) will be up 7 percent from the same period a year earlier, Total
spring farrowings for the United States may be up a little more. This will





FOS-187


- 23 -


NOVEMBER 1957


affect slaughter beginning in August. 'Lard yields are likely to increase, as
usually happens when hog slaughter rises, because of a tendency by the packers
to trim more fat from pork cuts.

Lard prices (tanks, loose, Chicago) averaged 12.7 cents per pound
during 1956-57, 2.4 cents above a year earlier. The price differential
between the two years, however, narrowed from a high of 4.8 cents per pound
in January 1957 to about 0.8 cents in September. Lard prices in October,
the beginning of the new marketing year, were about the same as a year
earlier, and in mid-November they were nearly 2.0 cents per pound below last
year. Lard prices through most of the 1957-58 marketing year probably will
remain under a year earlier as hog slaughter gathers momentum. The season
average price likely will be a little lower than last year but not as low as
the 10.3 cents per pound in 1955-56.

Domestic disappearance of lard in 1957-58 is forecast at a level only
slightly higher than a year earlier, with increased usage of lard in manu-
factured products slightly offsetting a small decline in direct use. If lard
exports in 1957-58 are about the same as the past year and the estimate of
domestic requirements is substantially accurate, prospects are that carryover
stocks of lard on September 30, 1958, will be around 100 million pounds, up
about 30 million from this year.

Little Change Likely in Lard
Exports; Foreign Competition
May Stiffen

Exports of lard during 1956-57 dropped to 591 million pounds, about
18 percent from a year earlier, reflecting higher prices as supplies were
reduced. Current prospects indicate lard exports may not change significantly
in 1957-58. Lower prospective export prices would usually result in a pro-
jected increase in volume of lard exports. Such an increase is not likely
in 1957-58 because of increased foreign competition and reduced foreign demand
for lard. Prospects are that little lard is likely to move out under Public
Law 480 programs in 1957-58.

World hog slaughter in 1958, excluding communist China, is likely to
rise about 4 percent from the high level of 1957. Market possibilities for
U. S. lard in Western Europe will be reduced in 1958 as output in Denmark
and the Netherlands is high and both countries, which are important exporters,
are having difficulty finding export outlets. Recent measures taken in
France to increase exports of all commodities will also stiffen competition
on the European lard market.

Leading importers of lard from the United States in recent years have
been Cuba, the United Kingdom, Yugoslavia, West Germany, Austria, Canada,
Mexico, Guatemala, Bolivia and Peru. These countries take over 90 percent
of our shipments.


_~~I_~X_





OVEMBER 1957


FOa-i( 24 -


Table 12.- Lard from total commercial slaughter: Factors relating to production by months, 1946 to 1956 1/

Total commercial slaughter of hogs 2/
Year : : : : : : : : : Total
beginning: Oct. : Nov. : Dec. : Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. May : June: July : Aug. : Sept. : or
October : : : : : : : : : : : average


Thou.

1946 4,496
1947 : 5,135
1948 : 5,049
1949 : 5,967
1950 :6,180
1951 : 6,949
1952 :6,878
1953 :6,094
1954 :6,223
1955 :7,226
1956 3/ :7,507
1957
: Lb.

1946 : 242
1947 : 230
1948 : 232
1949 225
1950 : 228
1951 : 228
1952 227
1953 : 224
1954 : 230
1955 : 227
1956 / : 226
1957

1946 : 9.2
1947 11.4
1948 : 12.0
1949 :13.4
1950 : 13.3
1951 : 13.5
1952 : 13.3
1953 : 12.8
1954 :13.8
1955 :13.1
1956 : 13.5
1957

1946 22.2
1947 :26.3
1948 : 27.7
1949 : 30.3
1950 : 30.4
1951 : 30.9
1952 :30.2
1953 :28.6
1954 : 31.7
1955 : 29.8
1956/ : 30.4
1957


Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou. Thou.


7,515 5,080 4,335 4,622 4,726 4,481 4,248 3,430
6,599 4,855 4,797 4,477 4,564 5,119 3,749 3,088
6,527 5,133 5,427 4,824 4,575 4,505 3,836 4,226
7,108 5,310 6,192 5,339 5,320 5,036 4,092 4,506
8,048 5,365 6,327 6,111 6,002 5,658 4,670 5,318
8,415 7,164 7,140 6,563 5,622 5,256 4,657 4,642
7,764 5,812 6,232 5,450 4,548 4,448 4,106 4,278
5,874 4,887 5,648 4,724 4,205 4,272 4,123 4,723
6,810 5,761 6,714 5,449 5,098 4,608 4,197 5,423
8,038 7,102 7,514 6,260 5,865 5,177 5,064 5,524
6,880 5,995 6,383 5,979 5,867 4,795 5,033 5,309


Average live weight of hogs slaughtered
Lb. I1. Lt. I. LLb. b. Lb. Lb.


248 244 245 247 253 265
246 246 242 239 248 266
249 243 240 237 244 258
241 234 230 234 240 257
244 238 235 237 240 254
240 239 234 231 237 248
237 230 228 230 239 254
239 233 234 242 254 265
242 235 235 240 246 256
235 230 228 231 236 245
233 231 232 235 241 248
Yield of lard per 100 pounds live weight

13.8 13.4 13.4 13.1 14.0 14.1
13.3 13.6 13.0 12.2 12.8 13.8
14.7 14.4 14.2 13.9 14.0 14.0
14.3 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.5
14.5 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.4
14.2 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.2
14.7 14.2 13.7 13.9 13.9 13.3
13.5 13.4 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8
14.3 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.4 14.1
14.5 14.1 14.8 14.3 14.4 14.2
14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.6

Yield of lard per hog slaughtered

34.3 32.7 33.0 32.5 35.3 37.3
32.7 33.6 31.5 29.3 31.8 36.7
36.6 35.1 34.1 33.0 34.1 36.2
34.6 32.8 32.1 33.2 34.0 37.3
35.4 32.6 32.2 32.7 34.5 36.6
34.1 35.6 34.7 34.3 34.7 35.2
34.8 32.7 31.1 31.9 33.0 33.7
32.3 31.3 30.8 32.4 34.5 36.7
34.5 33.3 32.8 33.6 35.5 36.2
34.o 32.5 33.7 33.1 33.9 34.8
32.8 33.0 33.7 34.6 36.0 36.3


3,901 60,862
3,675 60,514
4,800 62,600
5,066 68,876
5,473 74,546
5,479 78,027
5,078 70,470
5,769 63,420
6,158 70,818
5,967 80,510
5,996 74,239


Lb. Lb. Lb. Lb.

278 272 242 250
272 262 239 245
272 253 231 245
268 252 230 239
267 253 232 241
254 245 231 237
254 234 223 235
257 235 227 238
250 235 227 239
241 230 224 233
240 227 221 233


14.2 13.2
13.7 13.0
14.4 13.7
14.0 13.8
14.4 13.7
14.2 13.6
13.4 12.6
14.0 13.3
14.0 13.5
13.9 13.5
13.8 13.2


39.3 35.9
37.1 34.0
39.1 34.8
37.6 34.8
38.3 34.6
36.1 33.4
34.1 29.4
36.1 31.3
35.0 31.7
33.4 31.1
33.9 29.9


Lara rendered 4/
: Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.1b. Mil.lb. b. Mlb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb. Mil.lb.

196 : 100oo 202 207 258 166 143 150 167 167 167 123 114 1,963
1947 : 135 178 232 216 163 151 131 145 188 139 105 104 1,887
1948 : 140 199 251 239 180 185 159 156 163 150 147 143 2,112
1949 : 181 227 263 246 174 199 177 181 188 154 157 154 2,301
1950 188 229 271 285 175 204 200 207 207 179 184 176 2,506
1951 : 215 254 281 287 255 248 225 195 185 168 155 166 2,634
1952 208 227 293 270 190 194 174 150 150 140 126 139 2,262
1953 : 174 207 208 190 153 174 153 145 157 149 148 170 2,028
1954 : 197 227 258 235 192 220 183 181 167 147 172 184 2,363
1955 : 215 264 292 273 231 253 207 199 180 169 172 177 2,632
1956 : 228 246 224 226 198 215 207 211 174 166 159 173 2,427
1957
I/ Totals computed from unrounded data. 2 Represents slaughter in federally inspected establishments plus non-
inspected slaughter in retail and wholesale establishments. Does not include farm slaughter. 3/ Preliminary. / In-
cludes rendered pork fat.


7,218 6,810
6,747 7,709
6,456 7,242
7,193 7,748
7,342 8,053
7,856 8,285
7,099 8,777
6,649 6,452
6,969 7,408
8,100 8,672
7,705 6,790


239 241
232 239
240 246
233 239
235 241
233 237
233 237
232 236
237 241
233 235
232 234


11.7 12.6
11.4 12.7
12.9 14.1
13.5 14.2
13.3 14.0
13.9 14.3
13.7 14.1
13.4 13.7
13.8 14.4
14.0 14.3
13.8 14.1


28.0 30.4
26.4 30.1
30.8 34.7
31.6 33.9
31.2 33.7
32-3 33.9
32.0 33.4
31.1 32.2
32.6 34.8
32.6 33.7
31.9 33.0


- -







Table 13.- Lard: Supply, disposition and price, by months,
crop years 1950-56 1J

Production (excluding farm)
Year : : : : : : : : :
begin- Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Year
ninr : g
October : : .


Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb.

1950 : 188 229 271 285 175 204 200 207
1951 : 215 254 281 287 255 248 226 195
1952 : 208 227 293 270 190 194 174 150
1953 :174 207 208 190 153 174 153 145
1954 :197 227 258 235 192 220 183 181
1955 :215 264 292 273 231 253 207 199
1956 : 228 246 224 226 198 215 207 211
1957


Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb.

207 179 185
185 168 155
150 140 126
157 149 148
167 147 172
180 169 172
174 166 159


Mil. Mil.
lb. lb.

176 2,506
166 2,634
139 2,261
170 2,028
184 2,363
177 2,632
173 2,427


Stocks, first of month


1950 :82 79 99 127 163 159 147 142
1951 :57 60 67 104 120 138 154 178
1952 : 143 112 137 211 242 242 239 226
1953 : 42 45 51 74 76 73 79 74
1954 : 50 51 75 104 124 138 137 140
1955 :75 75 98 147 184 210 233 226
1956 2 : 123 106 103 112 101 112 119 127
1957/ : 69


132 124 91
185 215 208
201 169 109
69 66 58
144 133 118
211 203 178
120 107 102


Exports 3/


1950 : 19 28
1951 : 32 76
1952 : 48 50
1953 : 23 39
1954 : 49 59
1955 :60 70
1956 2/ : 53 52
1957


43 54 36
95 101 105
48 54 52
45 38 44
64 61 54
75 74 56
53 43 43


58 70
90 61
45 45
27 49
54 61
66 62
67 47


73 77 53
33 34 40
32 37 38
36 32 37
35 33 40
49 47 46
58 38 29


Domestic disappearance


1950 172 181 200 194 144 158 135 143
1951 :180 170 149 Iro 132 142 141 136
1952 :191 153 171 185 138 151 142 138
1953 :148 162 140 151 112 141 109 95
1954 :147 144 165 153 124 167 119 138
1955 :155 170 169 163 149 164 152 141
1956 2/ 192 197 163 194 144 141 152 146
1957


141 136 151
124 141 155
150 163 142
124 125 121
143 129 152
139 147 163
129 133 155


Price per pound, tanks, loose Chicago


12.5 13.7 15.7 17.3 18.1 17.9 16.5 16.4 15.2 15.4 16.6
16.3 13.9 13.9 12.9 11.4 10.7 9.7 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.2
8.5 8.4 7.8 7.2 7.9 9.1 9.3 10.4 9.6 11.7 14.6
15.8 14.1 15.9 15.3 15.9 16.9 19.1 17.0 15.5 16.2 17.0
:14.2 13.6 12.1 11.5 11.1 10.9 11.8 11.2 10.8 10.6 9.9
:10.7 9.8 9.0 9.1 9.7 9.7 10.8 11.4 10.1 10.4 11.3
12.2 12.6 13.5 13.9 13.5 13.0 12.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 12.3


14


1/ Totals computed from unrounded data.
2/ Preliminary and partly estimated.
3/ Including shipments to U. S. Territories.
I/ Includes 6 million pounds of imports.


1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956


145 1,901
161 4/1,803
124 1,848
137 1,564
171 1,751
153 1,864
146 1,891


16.1
9.4
17.2
15.5
10.2
11.7
12.5


16.0
11.5
10.1
16.2
11.5
10.3
12.7


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957


- 25 -





FOS-187


- 26 -


NOVEMER 1957


Cuba, the largest single importer of U. S. lard, has gradually
increased hog slaughter.

In several important Northern European countries, government produc-
tion subsides and import controls have encouraged expansion in hog output.
Although the United Kingdom adjusted production subsides last year to make
hog production less attractive than other livestock enterprises, hog
slaughter did not drop.

In North America, relatively high production during 1956 discouraged
producers and resulted in a low slaughter in 1957. Canadian slaughter has
already begun to rise and further sharp rises are forecast for 1958. U. S.
output is also expected to increase in 1958, although not as sharply as in
Canada. The Canadian hog slaughter cycle seems to be running about a half
year ahead of the U. S. cycle. Throughout the rest of North America, in-
creased laughter has followed the general trend of rising consumer income
and demand.

Lard Outlook for 1958-59

Increased Lard Output in
Sight; Prices Likely to
Average Lower

Lard output in 1958-59 probably will increase following a rise in the
1958 hog production. The 1958 spring pig crop will be appreciably larger
than the 1957 crop and the 1958 fall crop also will likely increase. The
combined spring and fall pig crops will provide most of the hogs slaughtered
during 1958-59.

The bumper harvest plus record carryover stocks of feed grains make
increased spring farrowings highly probable in 1958.

The hog-corn ratio advanced to a high of 16.6 in September 1957 and
the September-December average may be close to 16. The ratio has averaged
slightly above 12 for many years. A hog-corn ratio of 15 during the breeding
season almost invariably has been followed by increased farrowings. The
normal increase from that ratio is close to 10 percent, though it has been
above or below this range in individual years.

The 7 percent increase in winter farrowings planned by producers in
10 States may be a minimum estimate and the likely increase for the entire
U. S. spring pig crop may be more nearly 8-10 percent. Abundant feed will
encourage feeding hogs to heavy weight. With heavy trim of fat, lard yields
per head will likely increase. Lard supplies in the fall of 1958 probably
will be up appreciably, and the 1958-59 total output may increase between
225 and 275 million pounds. Lard prices would be appreciably lower than in
late 1956 and 1957.





FOS-187


- 27 -


NOVEMBER 1957


BUTTER OUTLOOK

1957-58 Butter Output Expected
to be close to Last Year; Prices
Likely to Average Around Support

Butter output in 1957-58 probably will be close to the year earlier
level but total supplies are likely to be a little larger because of heavier
Government stocks this October 1. Milk production is expected to increase
but a larger proportion probably will be used as fluid milk and for dairy pro-
ducts other than butter.

Butterfat support prices have been at 79 percent of parity since
April 1, 1957 and prices have averaged near support of 58.6 cents per pound.
Prices after March 1958 will depend mainly on the level of support to be
established for the dairy marketing year which will start on April 1, 1958.
By present legislation, it can be between 75 and 90 percent of parity.

Since foreign donations of butter were ended in the spring of 1956,
dispositions of CCC-owned butter have been mainly in domestic school lunch
and welfare outlets and for increased military use. Moderate amounts of butter
have been sold for commercial export at prices competitive with world prices.
The CCC stock position is at a much lower level now than it was in 1954 fol-
lowing two years of heavy purchases and limited outlets.

Level of Butter Output in 1958-59
Will be Influenced by
Government Programs.

The level of milk production and therefore of butter production in
1958-59, and later, will depend in part on Government price programs for
dairy products and feed grains. Also of considerable influence will be the
trend in prices of cattle for slaughter. Declining numbers of cattle would lead
to gradual increases in beef prices in the next few years, which would tend
to bring down the number of milk cows a little faster than the average decline
of 1 percent per year in the last several years. Increased output of milk
per cow, however, is likely to more than offset the reduction in number of
cows.


TOTAL FATS AND OILS OUTLOOK

1957-58 Output of Domestic Fats and
Oils to Continue Near last Year's Level

The 1957-58 production of fats and oils from domestic materials (in-
cluding the oil equivalent of exported domestic oilseeds) is forecast at
14.8 billion pounds compared with 14.9 billion pounds a year earlier. Increased
output of edible fats and oils -- 10.9 billion pounds to 11.1 billion --
will almost offset a decline on the inedible side (table 16).







Table 14.- Creamery Butter (Actual weight): Supply, disposition and price,
by months, crop years 1950-56 /

Production
Year :
begin-: Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Year
ning : :
October: :: :
Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb.

1950 : 89 76 78 86 81 92 102 133 141 130 119 94 1220
1951 : 87 68 70 79 79 91 103 135 128 118 106 92 1155
1952 : 88 76 95 104 102 121 133 156 154 136 119 95 1378
1953 : 92 91 109 118 117 142 141 165 160 128 109 92 1464
1954 : 89 88 99 108 104 121 129 158 152 123 102 92 1367
1955 : 95 93 106 114 114 129 135 152 148 127 110 92 1415
1956 /: 93 92 103 116 109 125 133 158 149 129 109 91 1408
1957
: Cold Storage Stocks, first of month

1950 : 234 208 160 105 75 53 33 32 43 73 104 117
1951 :114 95 59 27 14 8 7 11 31 69 oo0 111
1952 : 111 102 84 73 86 100 133 150 194 257 310 335
1953 : 323 312 291 282 294 304 347 376 422 468 504 508
1954 : 489 463 423 379 342 315 311 293 308 335 352 328
1955 : 295 257 202 163 132 98 88 77 80 110 134 118
1956 /: 90 62 40 25 29 32 41 62 96 147 176 172
1957 2/: 145
: Exports 3/

1950 1 8 9 3 4 9 4 2 4 44 4 43
1951 V 3
1952 14
1953 3 2 5 5 6 9 2 3 45
i954 : 1 13 11 1 19 14 16 37 32 14 2 11 190
1955 9 21 34 28 19 39 14 28 23 18 7 9 240
1956 2/ 1 3 2 1 1 6 1 / 4/ 1 / 16
1957
Domestic disappearance

1950 : 114 115 123 113 100 103 99 120 111 98 106 97 1298
1951 :105 103 102 92 84 93 98 115 90 86 94 92 1155
1952 : 97 94 106 91 88 88 116 112 90 83 93 95 1152
1953 : 100 110 110 106 102 95 106 117 104 92 103 109 1255
1954 : 113 116 133 127 112 110 132 106 94 91 124 113 1372
1955 :124 126 111 118 128 101 132 120 95 96 118 112 1380
1956 : 120 112 116 112 106 110 111 124 98 99 113 118 1338
1957 :
Price per pound, 92 Score, Chicago

1950 :63.2 64.0 66.6 69.8 68.9 66.7 66.5 69.5 68.2 66.7 66.4 67.0 67.0
1951 :69.9 73.0 78.0 73.3 83.5 73.0 70.0 68.4 68.8 71.0 72.6 72.6 72.9
1952 :71.0 69.2 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.6 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 66.1 66.6
1953 : 67.4 66.2 65.5 65.3 65.3 64.5 57.3 57.1 56.9 56.9 57.0 58.4 61.5
1954 : 59.1 58.9 59.6 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.3 58.0 57.8
1955 : 57.6 57.9 57.7 57.4 57.4 57.4 58.3 59.2 59.1 59.2 59.5 60.3 58.4
1956 /: 60.8 61.9 59.9 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.0 61.1 59.9
1957 :

1/-Totals computed from unrounded data. 2/ Preliminary and partly estimated. 3/ Including
shipments to U.S. territories and exports. Also includes donations to programs not included in
census data.
4/ Less than 500,00 pounds. 5/ Includes some imports.


- 28 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957








Table 15.- Food fats and oils: Supply and disposition, 1951 to 1957 1/

Year beginning October
Item : : : : :: :Forecast
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 2/ 1956 1957 /
: Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb.


Stocks, October 1
Soybeans --oil
equivalent 4/
Butter
Lard
Cottonseed oil
Soybean oil
Others 5/
Total

Imports

Production
Butter
Lard
Cottonseed oil 6
Soybean oil 6/
Others 5 6/
Total

Total supply

Exports T/
Butter
Lard
Cottonseed oil 6
Soybean oil
Others 5 6/~
Adjustment 8
Total fats and oils

Soybeans--oil
equivalent
Total exports

Domestic use
Butter
Lard 9
Cottonseed oil
Soybean oil
Others 5/
Adjustment 8
Total 9/

Total use for food 1o

Per capital, civilian
and military
Letter (fat content)
Other
Total (fat content)


: 41 36 109 14 108 41 108
S 114 11 323 489 295 90 145
S 57 143 42 50 75 123 69
193 393 1,016 896 361 2541 145
171 194 174 127 179 227 286
S 56 39 33 45 51 66 49
S 590 O0 1,589 1, 600 962 760 94-

: 46 45 61 91 57 46 50

: 1,376 1,578 1,647 1,530 1,568 1,546 1,560
: 2,918 2,509 2,248 2,564 2,852 2,627 2,750
: 1,729 1,840 2,106 1,723 1,893 1,626 1,500
: 2,611 2,856 2,767 3,377 3,884 4,378 4,550
: 526 539 660 560 685 684 730
S 9,159 9,321 9,427 9,763 10,882 10,861 11,090

: 9,796 10,246 11,078 11,462 11,902 11,671 11,834

S 3 14 45 190 240 16
: 751 515 456 587 719 591
S 126 55 402 716 617 427
S 271 93 71 50 556 807
: 62 39 119 33 46 60
S 55 74 117 124 64 75
: 1,435 1,110 1,625 2,365 ,983 2,923

: 167 320 416 666 741 947
: 1,435 1,110 1,62 5 2,365 2,9f3 2,923


: 1,375 1,352 1,438 1,540 1,533 1,476
: 2,071 2,111 1,773 1,959 2,067 2,061
1,404 1,162 1,824 1,543 1,384 1,307
2,150 2,462 2,326 2,609 2,539 2,565
: 521 550 589 611 623 689
: -55 -74 -117 -124 -64 -75
: 7,466 7,563 7,834 81,i8 8,0o2 8,023

7,109 7,219 7,541 7,790 7,834 7,869


7.1 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.0
: 36.9 36.9 37.7 38.0 37.675
S 43.7 44.9 45.5 45.05


1 Totals computed from unrounded numbers. / Preliminary. 3/ Except for stocks on October 1, 1957.
4/ ot included in total stocks. 5/ Includes beef fats, peanut, corn, olive and sesame oils. 6/ Includes
oil equivalent of oilseeds exported for crushing. 7/ Includes shipments. Butter, cottonseed oil and
adjustments include quantities from CCC stocks that are not reported in Census data. 8/ Includes
exports of processed food oils not classified by kind, shortening and other secondary fats. 9/ Adjusted
for estimated changes in stocks on farm. 10/ Excludes food fats used for nonfood purposes but includes
nonfood oils (mostly coconut, babassu and palm-kernel) used in food.


FO -187


- 29 -


NOVEMBER 1957







Output of edible animal fats -- butter, lard and beef fats -- is ex-
pected to total about 4,6O million pounds in 1957-58, around 170 million more
than a year earlier, largely reflecting the prospective increase in lard.

Production of edible vegetable oils in 1957-58 is forecast at 6.4
billion pounds, about the same as last year. A large increase in soy-
bean oil is likely to more than offset a decline in cottonseed oil. The esti-
mated soybean oil output at 4,550 million pounds comprises about 70 percent
of the total edible vegetable oils. Peanut oil output probably will not change
significantly from last year.

Since corn oil is a byproduct of the processing of corn for other pro-
ducts, mainly corn starch and corn sugar, production varies principally in re-
sponse to the demand for these products. As demand is expected to continue
strong and with corn supplies for 1957-58 at record levels, production of corn
oil probably will not vary significantly from 1956-57 when 275 million pounds
were produced. Corn oil output has shown a slight trend upward in recent years.

No substantial change is expected in the 1957-58 output of soap fats and
oils from domestic materials. Production of inedible tallow and greases in the
year which began on October 1, 1957 probably will total 3,000 million pounds
or about the same as a year earlier. Production of greases will increase as a
result of the rise in hog slaughter, but output of inedible tallow likely will
decline with the cattle slaughter. Little change is expected in the 1957-58
output of fish oils.


Output of drying oils in 1957-58 is forecast at 550 million pounds
cairpaj.'e with 850 million a year earlier. The sharp drop is attributed to
the short flaxseed crop as a little more tung and castor oils are expected to
be produced. Production of linseed oil from the domestic crop during 1957-58
will be materially smaller than last year. The probable outturn of linseed
oil is forecast at 500 million pounds.


Fats and Oils Uses Down 0.7 of
a Pound in 1956-57; Domestic
Disappearance to Continue igh

Domestic disappearance of all fats and oils in the marketing year that
ended on September 30, 1957 is estimated at 64.2 pounds (fat content) per person,
down 0.7 of a pound from the year before. The drop was mostly in food fats al-
though nonfood uses were down slightly (table 17). The per person rate was
somewhat lower than in the preceding year, when some inventory accumulation in
positions not covered by Census reports is believed to have taken place. With
a continued high level of consumer income and of industrial activity expected,
total domestic disappearance of fats and oils in 1957-58 probably will hold at
the high level of recent years.


- 30 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957








Table 16.--Estimated production of fats and oils from domestic materials
and oil equivalent of exported domestic oilseeds, year beginning
October 1957 with comparisons


Item Average195 1953 195 1955 1956 1957
Item 193-:1951 1952 : 1953 : 1954 :1955 7
:1937-41: : : : :


Butter (actual weight)
Lard and rendered pork fat
Edible beef fats 3/
Total, edible animal fats

Corn oil
Cottonseed oil
Edible olive oil
Peanut oil
Peanuts (shelled), oil
equivalent of exports for
crushing abroad 4/
Soybean oil
Soybeans, oil equivalent of
exports V/
Total, edible vegetable
oils

Inedible tallow and greases
Fish, whale and seal oils 6/
Total, soap fats and oils

Linseed oil 7/
Flaxseed, oil equivalent of
exports 8/
Tung oil
Castor oil
Total, drying oils
Other fats and oils 10/
Grand total


Mil.
lb.

2,224
2,091
225


Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. Ib. lb. lb. lb. lb.


1,376
2,918
173


1,578
2,509
218


1,647
2,248
255


1,536
2,564
269


1,568 1,546
2,852 2,627
336 319


Mil.
lb.

1,560
2,750
350


4,540 4,467 4,305 4,150 4,369 4,756 4,492 4,660

: 173 223 258 252 268 270 275 280
1,456 1,726 1,840 2,106 1,723 1,893 1,626 1,500
: 7 4 7 2 3 1 5 3
: 87 123 53 82 20 79 84
100
: --- --- 69 --- 4 19
: 500 2,444 2,536 2,350 2,711 3,143 3,431
4,550
: 31 167 320 416 666 741 947

2,254 4,678 5,010 5,272 5,384 6,131 6,387 6,433

1,303 2,268 2,616 2,661 2,826 3,120 3,000 3,000
: 223 126 148 161 180 204 149 150
1,526 2,394 2,764 2,822 3,006 3,324 3,149 3,150

: 363 554 501 631 588 625 635
500
--- 55 9/ 122 133 69 183
1 15 43 40 15 2 32 35
: --- 8 11 8 4 1 3 10
: 364 632 555 801 740 824 853 545
: 5 28 36 31 42 31 36 40
:8,689 12,206 12,670 13,077 13,545 15,00814,917 14,828


1/ Preliminary. 2/ Forecasts. 3/ Edible tallow, oleo stock, oleo oil, and
oleostearine. Beginning January 1949, use of edible tallow in pressing is subtracted
from reported production of tallow. 4/ 43 percent of actual weight. 5/ 9 pounds per
bushel, 1937-41; 9.8 pounds in 1950-51; 10.0 pounds in 1952; 11 pounds in 1953-56.
6/ Excludes cod oil and fish liver oils. 7/ Excludes oil equivalent of imported
flaxseed. 8/ 19.8 pounds per bushel. 9/ Less than 500,000 pounds. 10 Neat's foot
oil, wool grease, cod and fish-liver oils, and vegetable oils not reported separately
by kind.


Totals computed from unrounded numbers.


FOS-187


- 31 -


NOVEMBER 1957







Fos-187


NOVflBEB 1957


Table 17.- Domestic disappearance of food fats, and fats and oils used in industrial
products, year beginning October 1956 with comparison


Year and Item


1954-5,
Butter:
Actual weight ........................
Fat content ..........................
Margarine:
Actual weight .........................
Fat content ...........................:
Lard (direct) ............................
Shortening ..............................
Other edible Ij ........................
Food (fat content):
Total...............................
Per person 2/ ...................
Soap 3/ .............................:
Drying oil products 5/ ...............:
Other industrial products 4/..........
All industrial products:.................
Total ..............................
Per person 2/.......................
All products (fat content):
Total ..............................:
Per person 2/.......................

1955-56
Butter:
Actual weight ........................
Fat content ..........................
Margarine
Actual weight ........................
Fat content ..........................
Lard (direct) ...........................
Shortening .............................:
Other edible / .........................
Food (fat content):
Total...............................
Per person 2/.......................:
Soap 3/ ............................:
Drying oil products / ..............
Other industrial products 4 ............
All industrial products:
Total...............................
Per person 2/ .......................
All products (fat content):
Total ..............................
Per person 2/ ......................

1956-57
Butter:
Actual weight.........................:
Fat content...........................:
Margarine:
Actual weight......................... :
Fat content ..........................
Lard (direct) ..........................
Shortening .............................
Other edible L/ ........................
Food (fat content):
Total ..............................
Per person 2/ ...... .........
Soap 3/ 4 ..............................
Drying oil products / ...... ......
Other industrial products 4/ ...........
All industrial products:
Total ...............................
Per person 2/........................:
All products (fat content):
Total ..............................
Per person 2/ ......................


Unit : Oct.-Dec. :




Mil.lb. : 405
Mil.lb. 326

Mil.lb. : 359
Mil.lb. 288
Mil.lb. 464
Mil.lb. : 513
Mil.lb. 356

Mil.lb. 1,947
Lb. : 11.9
Mil.lb. 294
Mil.lb. 212
Mil.lb. 304

Mil.lb. 810
Lb. 5.0

Mil.lb. 2,758
Lb. 16.9



Mil.lb. 401
Mil.lb. 323

Mil.Ib. : 352
Mil.lb. 285
Mil.lb. 457
Mil.lb. 478
Mil.lb. 437

Mil.lb. 1,980
Lb. : 11.9
Mil.lb. 302
Mil.lb. 247
Mil.lb. 288

Mil.lb. 837
Lb. 5.0

Mil.lb. 2,817
Lb. 16.9



Mil.lb. 383
Mil.lb. 309

Mil.lb. 385
Mil.lb. : 311
Mil.lb. 457
Mil.1b. : 520
Mil.lb. 413

Mil.lb. : 2,010
Lb. : 11.9
Mil.lb. 231
Mil.lb. : 307
Mil.lb. : 376

Mil.lb. : 914
Lb. 5.4

Mil.lb. 2,924
Lb. 17.3


Jan.-Mar. : Apr.-June : July-Sept. : Total


385
310

367
293
428
490
368

1,889
11.5
279
221
309

809
4.9

2,697
16.4



379
305

392
318
459
523
480

2,086
12.5
272
263
330

865
5.2

2,951
17.6



357
288

365
293
418
414
419

1,832
10.8
271
221
338

830
4.9

2,661
15.6


377
303

323
259
373
505
439

1,880
11.4
267
281
351

898
5.4

2,778
16.8



388
312

276
224
352
387
440

1,715
10.2
270
262
293

824
4.9

2,539
15.1



370
298

341
274
368
431
492

1,863
C.

243
309

799
4.7

2,662
15.6


373
301

287
234
383
437
417

1,772
10.7
270
301
249

820
4.9

2,592
15.6



365
294

303
245
366
421
428

1,755
10.4
267
257
290

814
4.8

2,568
15.2



366
294

347
281
366
466
470

1,876
10.9
234
237
345

817
4.8

2,693
15.7


1,540
1,240

1,336
1,074
1,650
1,945
1,581

7489
45.5
1,110
1,014
1,213

3,337
20.3

10,826
65.8



1,533
1,234

1,323
1,072
1,635
1,809
1,786

7 535
65.0
1,112
1,028
1,200,

3,340
19.9

10,875
64.9



1,476
1,188

1,437
1,160
1,609
1,831
1,793

7,581
44.5
983
1,008
1,368

3,360
19.7

10,941
64.2


L/ Mainly salad and cooking oils. Includes all oils and fats (other than butter, lard margarine and shortening) used in mayonnaise
and salad dressing, bakery goods, and confectionery, commercial roasting and frying, etc. 2/ Civilian and military. 3/ Excludes fat
equivalent of exports and shipments of soap. 4 Fat equivalent of soap used in manufactures (rubber, textiles, etc.) is included
with "Other industrial products." Prior to 1949, most of the fats and oils used in synthetic detergents is believed to have been
reported as used in soap. Beginning in January 1949, this use of fats and oils is entirely included in "Other industrial products."
5/ Paints, varnishes, floor coverings, oilcloth, printing inks, core oils, synthetic resins, insulation, linings, packing, coated
fabrics (other than oilcloth), caulking and other protective coatings.

Total and per person estimates computed from unrounded numbers.


computed from unrounded numbers.









Table 18.--Calculation of domestic disappearance of fats and oils, except
butter, used in food, year beginning October 1956 with comparisons


Year and item



1954 /

Fats ana oils used principally
for food /
Production
Net exports
Increase (+) or decrease (-) in stocks
Nonfood uses
Other fats and oils, food uses /
Net domestic disappearance of fats and
oils for food (butter excluded)
Total
Per person, civilian and military

1955 1/
Fats and oils used principally
for food i/
Production
Net exports
Increase (+) or decrease (-) in stocks
Nonfood uses
Other fats and oils, food uses
Net domestic disappearance of fats and
oils for food (butter excluded)
Total
Per person, civilian and military

1956 V/

Fats and oils used principally
for food 1
Production
Net exports
Increase (+) or decrease (-) in stocks
Nonfood uses
Other fats and oils, food uses
Net domestic disappearance of fats and
oils for food (butter excluded)
Total
Per person, civilian and military


: Unit Oct.-
Dec.






: Mil. lb. :2,570
Mil. lb. 772
: Mil. lb.: +130
Mil. lb. : 131
Mil. lb. : 71


Mil. Ib. : 1,621
: Lb. : 9.9





: Mil. Ib. :2,954
Mil. lb. : 816
: Mil. lb. : +382
Mil. lb. : 150
SMil. lb.: 53


: Mil. lb. : 1,657
: Lb. : 10.0





: Mil. lb. : 2,907
Mil. lb. : 915
: Mil. lb. : +188
Mil. lb. : 154
:Mil. b.: 66


: Mil. l.. 1,701
Lb. : 10.0


: Jan.- : April- : July- : Total
SMar. June Sept.


2,159
534
-28
146
58


1,756
368
-268
136
55


1,727
412
-215
120
60


8,212
2,086
-381
533
244


1,579 1,577 1,472 6,248
9.6 9.6 8.9 37.8


2,560
742
+30
154
60


2,021
619
-73
134
74


1,752
544
-325
132
66


9,308
2,721
+14
570
253


1,781 1,403 1,460 6,301
10.6 8.4 8.7 37.6


2,543
831
-99
121
33


2,026
605
+191
97
74


1,544 1,569
9.1 9.2


1,858
441
-5
63


9,334
2,792
+205
460
236


1,582 6,397
9.2 37.5


I/ Includes lard, oleo oil, oleo stock, oleo stearine, edible tallow, corn, cottonseed, peanut,
soybean and edible olive oil. Production and exports include oil equivalent of exported soybeans
and peanuts for crushing abroad. Net exports also include margarine, shortening and vegetable
stearine, and shipments. Change in stocks includes secondary oils, shortening, margarine and
estimates for farm lard.
/ Mainly babassu, coconut, palm-kernel and sesame oils.
SPreliminary.


Compiled from reports of the Bureau of the Census and United States Department of Agriculture.
Totals and per person estimates computed from unrounded numbers.


FOS- 167


- 33 -


NOVEMBER 1957







Food uses of fats and oils totaled about 44.5 pounds (fat content) per
person, down about 0.5 of a pound from the year before.

Domestic disappearance of butter in 1956-57 totaled about 8.7 pounds
(actual weight) per person, down a half pound from a year earlier. Margarine
use, on the other hand, increased a half pound and totaled 8.4 pounds, actual
weight. As a consequence total use of the two major table spreads at
17.1 pounds per person remained unchanged. Little change is expected in the
consumption of these fats in 1957-58. Total disappearance of lard and
shortening, at 20.2 pounds per person, in the year ended September 30 was
0.4 of a pound less than a year earlier. The decline in the disappearance
rate was mostly in the direct use of lard.

Other food uses (cooking and salad oils, etc.) at 10.5 pounds per person
in 1956-57 was a shade lower than the previous year. This category has in-
creased in recent years. Except for a possible small increase in this
category there is likely to be little change in domestic disappearance of food
fats in 1957-58. More lard probably will be used in the manufacture of
shortening as supplies will be bigger and prices lower than last year.

Soap continues to decline in importance as an outlet for fats and oils
as synthetic detergents make further inroads into the soap market. Domestic
disappearance of soap declined from 6.6 pounds per person in 1955-56 to 5.8
pounds in 1956-57. Although this trend probably will continue in 1957-58, it
is likely to be at a reduced rate. More fats and oils were consumed in other
industrial products because of the high level of economic activity. This
category increased nearly a pound in 1956-57 to 8.0 pounds per person. Use of
fats and oils in drying oil products slid off 0.2 pounds to 5.9 pounds per
person for the marketng year just ended.

Total disappearance of nonfood fats and oils is not expected to change
much during 1957-58, as the anticipated decline in soap probably will be about
offset by gains for other industrial uses.


PEANUTS

Prospects for 1957-58

Large Peanut Supplies Likely to
Keep Farm Prices at Support

The total supply of peanuts during the 1957-58 marketing year that began
August 1, 1957 is estimated at 1,959 million pounds, about the same as a year
ago. An increase in carryover stocks (mostly CCC cold storage) from last
year about offset the slightly smaller output in 1957. Nevertheless, the
1957 crop will provide many more peanuts than needed for food and farm uses
and CCC will acquire the excess under the support program.


FOS-187


- 34 -


NOVEMBER 1957






NOVEMBER 1957


Prices to farmers for Spanish and Runner peanuts so far this year are
averaging near the CCC loan value, which is slightly less than last year.
Virginia-Carolina peanuts have just started to move in volume and prices are
also running near the loan rate. The loan value is the support price less
about half a cent for charges for storage, inspection, grading and expenses of
cooperatively marketing the peanuts. Loans on 1957 crop peanuts are available'
until January 31, 1958 and will mature May 31, 1958 or earlier on demand by
CCC. The national average support price for 1957 crop peanuts is 11.1 cents
per pound, compared with 11.4 cents last year, and the season average price
received by farmers is likely to average near the loan value.

Output of peanuts in 1957 is forecast at 1,504 million pounds, about
6 percent less than the 1,602 million produced last year. The acreage to be
picked and threshed is up about 11 percent but the indicated yield per acre at
979 pounds is 178 pounds lower than in 1956. Extremely vet weather in the
Southeastern area this year damaged both quality and quantity of peanuts. Con-
tinuous rains late in the growing and harvesting season appreciably damaged
windrowed and stacked peanuts. Compared with last year, indicated production
is down 18 percent in the Virginia-Carolina area and 19 percent smaller in the
Southeast, but more than twice as large in the Southwest.


Peanut Consumption Likely to
Increase in 1957-58; CCC May
Acquire About 13 Percent of Crop

In recent years when supplies of peanuts were plentiful and prices re-
latively low, civilians consumed about 6.5 pounds per person, farmers' stock
basis (4.5 pounds shelled), at prices about reflecting support. In 1954-55
when the crop was short and prices rose, per capital consumption on a farmers'
stock basis fell about a half pound. In 1955-56, supplies of ball-park type
peanuts were short and relatively high prices held total consumption to about
6 pounds. With lower prices and larger supplies of peanuts available last
year, consumption increased to the 6.5 pound per person level.

Prospects point to an increase in consumption of peanuts during the
1957-58 marketing year. Supplies available during the season will be heavy and
prices lower. How much the price of peanut products purchased by consumers
drops because of expected lower farm prices will have some bearing on the pea-
nut consumption rate in 1957-58. Consumer incomes this year will probably be
fairly well maintained.

If the consumption of peanuts per person in 1957-58 should increase
slightly and farm uses should continue about the same, about 200 million
pounds, 13 percent of the 1957 crop, would be available for crushing, exports
and carryover stocks. As most of the excess peanuts will be acquired by CCC
under the support program, the quantity crushed and exported to a large extent
will defend on Government sales policy. As of the end of October, farmers had
placed 100 million pounds of 1957 crop peanuts under loan.


- 35 -


FOS-187





FOS-187


- 36 -


NOVEMBER 1957


Peanut Outlook for 1958-59

1958 Peanut Output Likely
To Be Ample; Marketing
Quota jJp Nearly 14 Percent

If growing conditions are average, the 1958 peanut crop probably will
result in a moderate surplus above food and farm uses.

A marketing quota of 826,000 tons (1,652 million pounds) of 1958 crop
peanuts and a national allotment of 1,610,000 acres for picking and threshing
was announced on October 28, 1957. This is the minimum marketing quota and
acreage allotment permitted under existing legislation. Under the formula
required by law, the yield--1,026 pounds per acre--used in making 1958
determinations is higher than that for 1957.

Peanut producers last December approved marketing quotas for the 1957,
1958 and 1959 crops. Quotas have been in effect since 1949. Price support
will be available at a level between 75 and 90 percent of parity in 1958 and
in 1959, depending upon the supply at the beginning of each marketing year.

1958 Crop Peanut Prices Will
Be Affected By the Lowering
of Transitional Parity

Although the 1958 price support program has not been announced as yet,
production probably will be large enough to keep prices around support.

The 1958 crop support price will be affected by the lowering of the
transitional parity. Present legislation provides for a "transitional" parity
price for peanuts which is the "old" parity price reduced by 5 percent per
year beginning in 1956. The scheduled 5 percent reduction for 1957 was elimi-
nated by the Agricultural Act of 1956, and the transitional parity price for
peanuts in 1958 will be 90 percent of the "old" parity. Because this
"transitional" parity is higher than the "modernized" parity price for pea-
nuts, it is the effective parity price. The old parity price for peanuts on
October 15, 1957, the latest month available, was lh.3 cents per pound. The
transitional parity price was 13.6 cents per pound compared with modernized
parity of 12.3 cents.

Another factor in determining the support level for the 1958 crop pea-
nuts is the relationship between the estimated supply and the "normal" supply
for that marketing year. For example, if the estimated supply (carryover
stocks, production and imports) is expected to be not more than 108 percent of
the normal supply, support would be at 90 percent of parity. At the other
extreme, if the supply percentage should be more than 130, minimum support
would be 75 percent. Normal supply is defined by legislation as the estimated
domestic consumption and export plus a carryout equal to 15 percent of the
two.






NOVEMBER 1957


The estimated supply and consequently the minimum support level for
1958 crop peanuts will depend largely on the size of the carryover. The
greater the carryover, whether in Government or commercial hands, the greater
will be the supply percentage.

The following is an example of the probable range of support prices
for the 1958 crop.

Assuming no change from October 15, 1957 level in the index of prices
paid, interest and taxes, transitional parity in 1958 would be 12.9 cents per
pound (90 percent of the old parity of 14.3 cents). Support at 75 to 90 per-
cent would range from 9.7 cents to 11.6 cents per pound. Support for the
1957 crop is 11.1 cents per pound, 81.4 percent of parity.


FLAXSEED
Prospects for 1957-58

Flaxseed Supplies Tight This
Season; Output Lowest Since 1946

Domestic flaxseed supplies during 1957-58 will be tight as production
from the 1957 crop dropped sharply and stocks are low. Farm stocks of flax-
seed on October 1 were estimated at 14 million bushels, the second lowest of
record and the smallest since 1952.

Production of 1957 crop flaxseed, which provides most of the supply for
the rest of the marketing year, is indicated at 27 million bushels, slightly
more than half the 1956 output. The estimated yield per acre is 5.1 bushels,
the lowest since 1936, and compares with 8.8 bushels last year.

This has been a disappointing season for most flaxseed growers in the
important producing States of the Dakotas and Minnesota. The crop generally
got off to a good start but encountered serious difficulty with "aster
yellows" disease and unusually high temperatures during July and August that
sharply reduced yield prospects. Additional heavy losses occurred in North
Dakota and northeastern Minnesota as wet weather, beginning about mid-August
and continuing into late September, caught a sizeable acreage either in the
swath or uncut. In addition to reduced yields on this acreage, the quality
of the seed and test weight were reduced rather sharply.

Supplies of flaxseed in the 1957-58 marketing year (including the flax-
seed equivalent of linseed oil) are estimated at 51.6 million bushels,
compared with 60 million last year. This year's supply includes stocks of
24.5 million bushels (including the flaxseed equivalent of linseed oil), the
majority of which was held by CCC (table 19).


FOS-187


- 37 -







NOVEMBER 1957


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Domestic oil use may be equivalent to about 26 million bushels of
flaxseed, and another 4 million will be needed for seed and feed. With early
season exports (CCC sales) of 9 million bushels of flaxseed and h million
bushels equivalent of linseed oil, carryover stocks of flaxseed and linseed
oil on July 1, 1958 probably will be less than the relatively small commercial
carryover of the current season.

Commercial exports of flaxseed and linseed oil during 1957-58 probably
will be negligible.


Flaxseed Farm Prices in
1957-58 to Average
Above Last Year

Farm prices at the beginning of the 1957-58 marketing season averaged
slightly under support and below a year earlier. Early supplies were heavy
and crop prospects favorable. Prices since then have moved up as stocks were
reduced and crop conditions deteriorated. Farm prices in October 1957
averaged $2.99 per bushel compared with $2.92 a year earlier. Because of the
sharp decline in the 1957-58 flaxseed supplies, farm prices for the year
probably will average slightly above the $2.99 per bushel received last year.
Apparently the poor quality of the flaxseed and low oil content are likely to
prevent a larger increase in farm prices.

Prices to farmers for 1957 crop flaxseed are being supported at a
national average price of $2.92 per bushel, down 17 cents from the 1956 level
and about the same as 1955. In terms of parity, support is 65 percent com-
pared with 70 percent last year. The deadline for loans and purchase agree-
ments is January 31, 1958.


Linseed Oil Prices Rise
Sharply; Will Continue
Higher Than Last Year

Linseed oil prices (raw, tank cars, Minneapolis) at the beginning of
the 1957-58 marketing year averaged 12.7 cents per pound, 0.7 cent less than
July a year earlier. Prices since then have risen sharply and in mid-
November were 15.0 cents per pound, about 2 cents above a year ago. Present
prospects indicate that linseed oil prices are likely to continue above a
year earlier during the remainder of the marketing year. They may even
increase further as supplies become scarce.

In most years, stocks of linseed oil at processing plants usually rise
from a low point in the fall to a seasonal high in the spring, partly reflect-
ing the seasonal pattern in crushings. The usual pattern is not likely this
season because of the short supply of flaxseed and linseed oil. Stocks of
linseed oil at processing plants on October 1, 1957 were nearly 102 million
pounds, about the same as a year earlier and equivalent to slightly more than
5 million bushels of flaxseed.


NOVEMBER 1957


FOS-187


- 39 -








World Exportable Supplies of
Flaxseed Large in 1957-58

Exportable supplies of flaxseed or linseed oil from other countries in
1957-58 may total around 55 million bushels. This is well above a year
earlier but about at the average of total world exports in the 3 preceding
years (1953-55) when U. S. shipments abroad were large (table 20).

Canada's flaxseed crop is estimated at 20 million bushels, down
sharply from last year's record crop. Because of a record carrying, exportable
supplies in 1957-58 are only 5 million bushels less than the 22 million
shipped out a year ago.

The downward trend in Argentine flaxseed production in recent years
was reversed in 1956. The 1957 crop is estimated to be about 35 million
bushels, 10 million above last year. A crop of this size would provide
approximately 30 million bushels for export. The new crop will be harvested
in late 1957 and supplies for export will not become available until early
1958. It has been the Argentine policy to crush flaxseed and export linseed
oil. If this policy is continued, the rate of crushing will determine how
much will go out in January June 1958.

India's 1957 flaxseed crop is estimated at 14 million bushels, 3 million
below last year. Exports of flaxseed are prohibited. Linseed oil is often
used as a food oil in India and exports depend upon prices and supplies of
other e6ible oils. Linseed oil exports in 1956 were equivalent to about 1
million bushels of flaxseed.

Prices of flaxseed and linseed oil in the international market have
declined materially from the highs reached in 1956, when foreign exportable
supplies were scarce and commercial exports from the U. S. were relatively
large. International prices are considerably below the U. S. support price to
farmers. Commercial exports of U. S. flaxseed have been negligible since
late 1956.


Flaxseed Outlook for 1958

Flaxseed Output in 1958-59
Likely to be Above This
Year's Short Crop

If plantings of flaxseed in 1958 are about the same as this year and
growing conditions are normal, the flaxseed crop would total nearly 50 million
bushels. This would be about 15-20 million bushels above probable commercial
use. No one can accurately predict the chances of recurrence of the aster
yellows disease in 1958. (See statement in Appendix.) The role of weather
may be important in its effect on the rate of hatch and survival of the
leafhoppers.


- h0 -


FOS- 187


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Approximately 95 percent of the flaxseed crop is grown in Minnesota
and North and South Dakota where alternative land uses are limited. The wheat
allotment for the 1958 crop is the same as the year before but less acreage
likely will be placed in the Soil Bank program. In 1957 the wheat acreage was
sharply reduced in North Dakota as farmers apparently turned to flaxseed for
cash crop income; however, because of disappointing yields some farmers may
not produce flaxseed in 1958. On the other hand, relatively strong flaxseed
prices at planting time would be an incentive to others.

Price support for flaxseed is discretionary with the Secretary of
Agriculture. As yet, no announcement has been made regarding support for the
1958 crop.


Tallow and Grease Outlook

Disappearance at High
Level in 195-7;
Carryover Stocks Lowest
in Years; Prices Rise

Apparent production of inedible tallow and greases in 1956-57 totaled
3,000 million pounds; it was 3,120 million the year before (table 21). Total
disappearance in 1956-57, which was about the same as in 1955-56, was 69 mil-
lion pounds greater than output, resulting in reduction of stocks. The
carryover stocks on October 1, 1957 were 239 million pounds, the lowest for
that date since 1946. Domestic disappearance in 1956-57 was a little larger
than a year earlier but this about offset slightly smaller exports.

Prices (prime, tank cars, Chicago) remained relatively stable during
October-May 1956-57 averaging 6.9 cents per pound. Prices moved up each month
since then and in mid-November were 8.0 cents per pound, reflecting the strong
demand and reduced supplies.

Consumption of inedible tallow and greases in soap continued downward
in 1956-57 but this was more than offset by a sharp rise in reported usage in
animal feeds and a moderate rise in "other" industrial uses. These consump-
tion trends are likely to continue in 1957-58.

Tallow and Grease Out ut to
Remain Large in 19 7-58

Output of inedible tallow and greases in 1957-58 is expected to remain
about the same as last year at the 3.0 billion pound level. Cattle slaughter
probably will be down a little but the average dressed weight per head may be
a shade higher. Consequently, tallow output may be down only slightly. A
larger output of grease is likely from increased slaughter of hogs.


FOS-187


- 42 -


NOVEMBER 1957









Table 21.- Tallow, inedible and grease: Supply, disposition and price, oy months,
crop years 1950-56 I/

Apparent production 2/
Year : : :
begin- I Oct.: Now. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May :June :July :Aug. Sept. Year
ning : : : : : : : : : : : : :
October :


Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
: b. lb. lb. lb. Ib. lb. lb. lb.

1950 : 217 205 222 233 191 196 200 208
1951 : 103 192 100 213 195 200 192 I l8
1952 : 200 195 213 230 204 229 23b 233
1953 : 216 212 251 250 213 236 203 214
1954 : 224 234 242 241 220 241 233 229
1955 : 241 267 264 268 271 273 285 273
1956 /: 256 242 277 267 23b 272 239 248
1957


Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lb. lb. lb. lb. lb.

171 15b 178 165 2,343
104 176 184 180 2,26o
225 226 198 222 2,blb
209 220 235 218 2, ol
243 222 251 245 2,826
260 229 248 240 3,120
253 234 233 242 3,000


Stocks. first of month


1950 :279 249 263 283 315 282 251 250
1951 : 340 334 339 345 353 346 325 311
1952 : 340 326 348 375 411 406 398 393
1953 : 363 313 306 300 307 289 293 282
1954 :268 250 248 262 275 263 263 254
1955 : 260 250 277 299 313 330 343 320
1956 3/ 306 308 347 353 360 361 297 263
1957 :239


275 299 340 347
315 332 346 338
394 392 410 389
289 274 209 283
250 245 259 259
318 331 339 319
258 259 262 256


Exports


1950 : 66 35 37 28 48 45 56 45
1951 : 50 57 57 57 65 84 66 56
1952 : 69 59 67 70 77 94 104 100
1953 : 118 83 120 89 96 88 86 85
1954 : 115 102 91 101 103 101 113 95
1955 : 117 106 106 127 123 122 174 135
1956 3/ : 109 74 145 115 105 189 133 111
1957


25 33 41 51 509
49 59 66 52 720
103 107 103 118 1,070
103 113 111 93 1,1i6
114 112 122 105 1,265
118 116 128 121 1,494
122 122 87 118 1,429


Domestic disappearance


1950 : 181 156 165 173 176 182 145 138
1951 : 139 130 117 148 136 138 140 127
1952 : 145 114 118 130 131 143 138 132
1953 : 151 135 137 133 135 146 129 122
1954 : 137 135 137 128 130 140 130 138
1955 : 136 135 136 127 132 138 135 140
1956 / :145 130 126 145 132 147 139 142
1957


122 84 130 122 1,773
118 104 126 126 1,550
125 100 115 130 1,523
121 92 131 140 1,574
134 97 129 139 1,572
129 105 140 131 1,583
13L 110 153 140 1,640


: Price per pound, inedible tallow prime, tanks, Chicago

1950 : 12.4 13.5 15.5 17.2 17.8 15.7 14.8 14.7 12.9 9.4 9.0 9.6 13.5
1951 : 9.1 8.0 7.3 6.6 5.7 5.3 4.7 5.6 6.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 6.3
1952 : 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.3
1953 : 4.5 5.6 5.8 6.5 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.2 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.2
1954 : 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.8 7.7 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.0
1955 : 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.9
1956 : 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.1
1957

I/ Totals computed front unrounded data.
2/ Computed production based on reported factory consumption, net foreign trade, and change in stocks.
Reported factory production excludes that from small rendering plants.
3/ Preliminary.


FOS-187


- 43 -


NOVEMBER 1957








Prices in 1957-58 will depend to a large extent upon the level of
exports, as little change is in prospect for domestic disappearance. Little
if any tallow is likely to be shipped abroad under P. L. 480 in 1957-58.


Tung Oil Outlook

Tung Oil Output Expected To
Rise Slightly in 1957-5
Beginning Stocks Up

Domestic supplies of tung oil -- production plus stocks -- in the mar-
keting year which began November 1, 1957 are estimated at 58 million pounds,
around 8 million more than estimated probable use. Beginning stocks, estima-
ted at 23 million pounds, are nearly twice as large as a year earlier. About
15 million pounds of these were in the hands of CCC, acquired on October 31,
1957 under the 1956 crop support program. Commercial stocks of tung oil are
lower than last year.

Prices of U. S. tung oil ranged higher than the imported oil during
most of the 1956-57 season, which encouraged consumption of foreign oil while
CCC held domestically produced oil. Imports of tung oil, mostly from Argen-
tine, during November 1956-October 1957 are placed at around 31 million pounds,
almost as large as the 1956-57 U. S. output (table.23). U. S. imports from
Red China, the major world exporter, are embargoed.

The outlook for the 1957 tung nut crop is the most favorable in recent
years. Output probably will be somehwat larger than last year as the tung
orchards were not as seriously hit by early spring freezes as in 1956. Preli-
minary trade estimates indicate a crop of about 35 million pounds of oil.
This would compare with 32 million in 1956, 2 million in 1955 and 15 million
in 1954.

Domestic use of tung oil in recent years has leveled off at around 50
million pounds annually. Little change is in prospect from this consumption
in 1957-58 though tung oil prices may average slightly lower.

Total supplies of drying oils are expected to be fully adequate, but
stocks of linseed oil will be reduced moderately.


Tung Oil Imports
Are Restricted

On September 9, 1957, the President issued a proclamation restricting
imports of tung oil for the remainder of the 1956-57 crop year and for each of
the three succeeding crop years ending October 31, 1960. This action was
taken because imports have interfered with the price support program for
tung oil.


- 44 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957








Table 22.- Tung nuts: Supply, disposition and price, 1939- 5r

Year : Supply Disposition : Price : Oil yield
beginning : Pro- : Season per ton
November dctio Imports Total :Crushings Residual avage Support rushd
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Stones tons tons tons tons Dol. Dol. Lb.

1939 : 1.2 -- 1.2 (1.2) --- 42.20
1940 11.0 --- 11.0 (11.0) --- 60.00
1941 : 8.7 --- 8.7 (8.7) --- 88.30
1942 : 16.4 16.4 16.4 --- 91.80 316
1943 : 6.2 -- 6.2 5.5 .7 99.00 341
1944 : 26.7 --- 26.7 27.3 .6 102.00 100.00 321
1945 :37.1 --- 37.1 27.5 9.6 98.90 101.25 332
1946 :57.4 -- 57.4 45.1 12.3 96.90 --- 319
1947 53.2 --- 53.2 50.6 2.6 64.90 72.00 316
1948 : 58.5 2.7 61.2 50.3 10.9 49.10 --- 339
1949 : 87.9 .3 88.2 83.1 5.1 63.70 60.00 322
1950 : 36.5 --- 36.5 35.8 .7 111.00 63.00 343
1951 : 49.1 .1 49.2 48.5 .7 106.00 67.20 303
1952 : 132.1 .5 132.6 129.5 3.1 79.80 67.20 335
1953 : 120.0 --- 120.0 112.6 7.4 66.80 63.38 352
1954 : 51.0 -- 51.0 46.6 4.A 59.40 54.96 325
1955 : 6.2 .5 6.7 i --- 64.00 51.06
1956 : 103.5 --- 103.5 100.2 3.3 53.40 53.76 319
1957 : 52.13
T Nce glig1bl2. 2/ Preliminary.

Table 23.- Tung oil: Supply, disposition and price, calendar year average 1935-39
and year beginning November 1942-57 1/

Supply : Disposition : Price ,
: Begin- : : Domestic: Drums, : Tanks, : Oil
Period : ning : Pro- : Imports' Total: Epor disap- N.Y.(im-: f.o.b. : Support acquired
stocks :duction 2/ :pearanceported) mill 3// by CCC
:Mil. lb. il. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Ct. Ct. Ct. Mil. lb.
Average
1935-39 : 37.9 .6 123.2 161.7 5.7 118.1 18.2
1942 : 31.4 5.2 4/ 36.7 1.8 5/11.5 39.0
1943 28.7 1.9 1.8 32.3 .7 /10.5 39.0
1944 : 22.8 8.8 .3 31.9 2.5 21.7 39.2 36.0 ---
1945 : 7.7 9.1 24.5 11.3 .9 33.2 39.2 6/36.0 ---
1946 : 7.2 14.4 103.4 125.0 6.0 87.1 32.4 --
1947 : 31.9 16.0 14o.4 188.4 10.4 130.4 25.2 25.0 7.8
1948 : 47.6 17.0 72.4 137.0 10.9 107.7 23.4 --
1949 : 18.5 26.8 105.9 151.1 8.2 112.5 26.5 25.1 24.1 1.6
1950 :30.5 12.3 48.2 91.0 6.4 5/72.4 38.2 36.7 25.1 ---
1951 :16.0 14.7 30.4 61.2 1.3 51.2 40.8 39.1 26.5 -
1952 : 8.7 43.4 13.0 65.1 .3 49.6 31.3 28.6 26.5 5.8
1953 :15.1 39.6 41.5 96.3 .3 49.3 24.3 23.8 23.9 32.8
1954 : 46.7 15.2 25.2 87.1 3.6 51.2 25.1 23.3 21.2 Y
1955 : 32.4 2.0 31.4 65.8 1.4 51.4 26.2 24.4 20.0 ---
1956 7/ : 13-0 32.0 31.0 76.0 1 52 24.6 22.7 21.0 15
1957 / : 23 35.0 20.5

1 Data by crop year not available until 1942-43.
Includes reexports.
Not available before April 1949.
Less than 50,000 pounds.
Factory consumption figures usod for years in which reported factory consumption exceeds domestic
disappearance.
6 Processor had to agree to buy back oil at 37 cents a pound or else CCC would purchase oil only at
30 cents a pound.
7/ Preliminary and partly estimated. 8/ Forecast.


NOVEMBER 1957


FOS-187


- 45 -







Three annual quotas of 26 million pounds each were established by the
proclamation. The period covered by the first 26 million-pound quota, however,
included the remainder of the 1956-57 crop year, September 9 to October 31,
and all of the crop year beginning November 1, 1957. For the second and third
crop years, not more than one-fourth of the annual quotas shall be imported
during the first quarter of each.

Of the annual quota of 26 million pounds, 22,100,000 pounds may be
imported from Argentina, 2,964,000 pounds from Paraguay, and 936,000 pounds
from other countries.

The President's proclamation was issued under Section 22 of the Agri-
cultural Adjustment Act, as amended, which authorizes limitation on imports
when they interfere with or threaten to interfere with domestic price support
or marketing programs.

1957-58 Tung Support
Price Slightly Lower

It was announced on October 30, 1957, the 1957 tung nut crop is to be
supported at $$2.13 per ton (65 percent of parity), basis 18.5 percent oil
content. The equivalent price for tung oil is 20.5 cents per pound. Support
last year was $53.76 per ton for the nuts and 21 cents per pound for tung oil,
equivalent to 65 percent of parity. Price support for tung nuts is mandatory
at some level between 60-90 percent of parity, under provisions of the Agri-
cultural Act of 1949, as amended. The 1957 crop price support will be imple-
mented through purchase agreements on tung nuts and purchase agreements and
loans on tung oil.

Farm prices of tung nuts daring the harvesting season, which is just
starting, are expected to average near the support price. Prospects are that
tung oil prices (tanks, f.o.b. mills) during the 1957-58 marketing season are
likely to average slightly less than the 22.7 cents per pound in 1956-57.

Castor Bean Outlook

Castor Bean Output Increases in
1957-5; Fu rher Expansion
Likely Next Year

The 1957 domestic castor bean crop, according to trade estimates,
probably will total over 20 million pounds, compared with about 5 million in
1956. A crop this size should yield around 9-10 million pounds of castor oil.
Producers in 1957 are expected to harvest about 15,000 acres in Arkansas,


FOS-187


- 6 -


NOVEMBER 1957








Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Favorable castor bean
prices along with high yields per acre and the efficient performance of new
harvesters are reportedly netting good returns to producers this year.

Domestic disappearance of castor oil in recent years has averaged
around 135 million pounds, practically all from imported beans and oil
(table 25). If this disappearance rate continues in 1957-58, around
125 million pounds of castor oil or beans will need to be supplied from
foreign sources. The United States is the major importer of castor beans
and oil, taking about 50 percent of the total world trade in 1956. Brazil
and India are the two major producers.

In view of the fact that large quantities of castor beans and castor
oil must be imported each year to meet domestic requirements, castor beans
afford an excellent opportunity to replace crops now in surplus such as feed
grains and cotton and at the same time tend to make the U. S. less dependent
upon imports. Experience has shown castor beans can be grown successfully
in the U. S. on a commercial basis and can compete effectively for land with
other crops when yields and price relationships are favorable.

The need for replacement crops along with improved varieties of
castor seed and harvesters, and relatively favorable bean prices, probably
will result in an increase of castor bean acreage in 1958. However, limited
harvesting and hulling facilities may tend to restrain the increase.

An important limiting factor in the expansion of domestic castor bean
production is the toxicity of the castor pomace, the residue after the oil
has been extracted from the beans, which at the present time is used as a
fertilizer. If research could develop an efficient method of detoxication
of the pomace, its value would be enhanced as it could then be used in live-
stock feeds. This should in turn be reflected in higher returns to castor
bean producers.

Imported Castor Bean Prices
Dr Shaply; World Output UP

Castor bean prices (f.o.b. Brazilian ports) rose sharply from $123 per
long ton in January 1956 to a peak of $185 in February 1957. Prices then
slid off a bit averaging $178 per ton during March-August 1957. Prices since
have dropped sharply and in early November were $132 per ton. The recent
decline probably reflects primarily increased availabilities with the harvest
of the large 1957 crop in Brazil.

Production of castor beans outside the U. S. during 1950-55 remained
quite stable ranging from 530,000 short tons in 1951 to a record 545,000 in
1953. Output in 1956 was 549,000 tons, and is estimated at about 565,000
for 1957 (table 24).


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NOVEMBER 1957







Table 24.--Castor beans: World production, exports, U. S.
imports and prices, 1947-57

World U. S. imports
: Production : Eports : Price per
: Beans : : Bean : : ton of
Year : : Excluding and oil Beans :equivalent Total : beans at
: Total : U. S in terms : :of oil 2/ Brazilian
: of beans :ports

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: short short short short short short
: tons tons tons tons tons tons Dollars

1947 : 464 464 272 138 7 145 216.10
1948 : 547 547 256 151 3 154 147.16
1949 : 504 504 184 145 11 156 108.30
1950 : 531 531 289 132 52 184 141.43
1951 : 541 530 267 75 99 174 260.02
1952 : 546 534 284 70 124 194 196.38
1953 : 571 545 298 57 141 198 145.60
1954 : 539 534 258 55 63 118 102.95
1955 534 532 322 44 106 150 114.09
1956 : 552 549 256 21 99 120 153.02
1957 : 575 565 278

1/ Preliminary.
2Assuming 45 percent oil content.



Table 25--Castor oil: Supply, disposition and price, U. S., 1947-57

Supply Disposition
: Production from : : : :Coputed :ctory : Price,
Year : Domestic Imported : Imports: Stocks : Total Exports* disap- .consump- : No. 1
: material:material : : Jan. 1 : :pearance :tion
Mil. Mil. Mil. Ml. Ml. Mil. Mil. Ml.
: lb. lb. lb. lb. Ib. lb. lb. lb. Ct.

1947 : 117 7 19 143 4 116 91 29.1
1948 : 136 2 24 162 2 128 107 22.7
1949 128 11 32 171 3 130 87 18.1
1950 128 47 38 213 2 181 120 20.4
1951 : 5 74 89 30 198 1 174 108 33.6
1952 8 66 112 23 209 1 182 81 28.9
1953 : 10 56 127 26 219 1 169 85 22.6
1954 : 7 55 57 50 169 1 138 79 17.2
1955 : 1 49 95 30 175 1 136 100 15.9
1956 2/ : 3 23 89 39 154 3 121 94 19.2
1957 / : /10 28

1/ Tanks, f.o.b. New Jersey mills.
2/ Preliminary.

3/ Forecast.


Totals computed from unrounded numbers.


FOs-187


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NOVEMBER 1957







TRENDS IN CONSUMPTION OF FOOD FATS AND OILS IN THE U. S.

The impact of World War II on the U. S. fats and oils foreign trade
and on oilseed and livestock production resulted in significant changes in
the American fats and oils consumption pattern. These changes were rein-
forced by the subsequent immediate postwar fats and oils shortage in Europe.
They were channeled and shaped by technological improvements in deodorizing,
hydrogenation and other phases of processing. These changes had for the most
part taken place within a period of about 10 years and by 1951 or 1952 the
present consumption pattern had largely become stabilized.

In the 1935-39 (calendar year) period per capital consumption of food
fats averaged 45.4 pounds. It declined to about 39 pounds during the belt
tightening rationed period of World War II. Postwar shortages and high prices
slowed recovery. However, by the end of 1948 domestic per capital consumption
had become stabilized at the approximate position it has maintained since.
The 1952-56 average per capital rate calculates to h447 pounds. That con-
sumption appears to be about half a pound less than prewar is of minor sig-
nificance and may be solely due to less accurate adjustment of the figures in
the prewar period. Roughly speaking, the U. S. has returned to the prewar
level which has been maintained now for nearly 10 years. The important
changes since prewar are in the types and relative quantities of the differ-
ent primary fats and oils used for edible purposes and in the relative quan-
tities of edible end products consumed. Many of these changes occurred in
the war and immediate postwar years. Others occurred between 1948 and 1952.
Since 1952 with one important exception, there has been no significant change.

The most significant decline in use in a primary product has occurred
in butter which averaged 1.8 billion pounds or 30 percent of total edible con-
sumption in 1935-39 but which averaged only 1.2 billion pounds and accounted
for only 16 percent of edible consumption in 1952-56. Nevertheless butter's
decline both in total quantity and percentagewise was arrested in 1952 (table
26).

Cottonseed oil consumption is quantitatively at nearly the same level
as prewar averaging close to 1.4 billion pounds in 1952-56. However, as a
percent of total consumption this has meant a decline from 24 to 18.

Total use of lard increased from 1., to 2.0 billion pounds while lard's
share of the total consumption increased more moderately from 24 percent in
1935-39 to 27 in 1952-56. Actually the quantity of lard consumed has not
tended to increase in the last 9 or 10 years and consequently lard's percent-
age of total consumption has declined from 31 percent in 1948-51 to 27 in
1952-56.

"All other" primary fats and oils used for edible purposes averaged
about 1.1 billion pounds in 1935-39 and declined to only 0.8 billion in 1952-
56. Percentagewise this represented a decline from 18 percent of the total
in the "all other" category to 11 percent. This change had occurred as a
direct result of the war itself with the U. S. changing from a net importing
to a net exporting country. In the prewar period the United States, as a
net importer, similarly to Europe prewar and today used a greater variety of


FOS-187


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NOVEMBER 1957







primary fats and oils for edible purposes. Oils no longer used for edible
purposes in 1952-56 which were imported for edible use during the 1935-39
period were: palm oil with 148 million pounds average edible use; sesame 38,
babassu 21, sunflower 13, rapeseed 10, and kapokseed h. A much larger per-
centage of the coconut oil imports went into edible products in 1935-39. Also
domestically produced fish oil averaged 25 million pounds for edible use in
1935-39 while little or none is so used today. However, the "other fats and
oils" category after reaching a low in the immediate postwar has been slowly
but steadily gaining both quantitatively and percentagewise since. Much of
this gain has been due to the increased use of edible tallow.

The most important single change in the consumption pattern has been in
the greatly increased use of soybean oil. The 1935-39 average consumption of
0.2 billion pounds had increased to 2.1 billion pounds by 1952-56. Percent-
agewise the increase was from 4 percent in 1935-39 to 28 percent of the total
in 1952-56. However, it is noteworthy that this level had been reached by
1952, after which date it has merely been maintained. The continuing large
increases in soybean production and soybean oil since that date have obvi-
ously gone almost entirely into the foreign market as beans or as oil.

Consumption by types of end products shows a similar changing situa-
tion but under a different face except for butter which is identical as a
primary fat and as an end product.

The direct use of lard has increased much less in poundage between
1935-39 and 1952-56 than did lard as a primary fat and it actually declined
from 25 to 22 as a percent of total consumption. In the war and immediate
postwar period practically the entire increase in lard production was
reflected in a corresponding increase in its direct use in consumption. The
decline in the direct use of lard largely occurred between 1948 and 1953.
Noteworthy also is the marked stability in the direct use of lard both quan-
titatively and percentagewise since 1953.

Margarine consumption increased from 0.3 billion pounds in 1935-39 to
an average of 1.1 billion in 1952-56 and from 5 percent to 14 percent of the
total consumption. Margarine's substantial increase stopped in 1952. Mar-
garine and butter considered jointly increased slightly on a quantitative
basis between 1935-39 and 1952-56 but decreased percentagewise by 5 percent.

Shortening increased quantitatively from an average of 1.5 billion
pounds in 1935-39 to 1.8 in 1952-56. However, this resulted in a decline in
shortening's percent of total consumption from 27 to 24,

Most marked and continuous of the end product increases has been that
under the catchall category "other edible products." This includes salad oil,
cooking oil, mayonnaise and a large number of related products. "Other edible


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FOS-187








Table 26.--Primary fate and oils: Domestic disappearance for food uses, 1935-39
and 1952-56 averages and 1948-56 by years

Year beginning Soybean Cottonseed :: Other fats Per apita
October 1 oil : oil ard : Butter 2/ :O t : Total : capital
a nd oils
Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb.
Average
1935-39 : .2 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.1 5.9 45.4
1952-56 : 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.2 .8 7.5 44.7
198 : 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.3 .6 6.5 43.4
1949 : 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 .7 6.9 45.1
1950 : 1.6 1.0 2.2 1.2 .7 6.8 43.5
1951 : 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.1 .7 7.0 44.0
1952 : 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.1 .7 7.0 43.7
1953 : 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 .8 7.5 44.9
1954 : 2.2 1.4 2.0 1.2 .8 7.7 45.5
1955 : 2.1 1.3 2.1 1.2 .9 7.6 45.0
1956 : 2.2 1.2 2.1 1.2 1.0 7.8 44.5

Pet. Pet. Pct. Pct. Pet. Pet.
Average
1935-39 : 4 24 24 30 18 100
1952-56 : 28 18 27 16 11 100
1948 : 18 23 30 20 9 100
1949 : 19 22 30 19 10 100oo
1950 : 24 15 33 18 10 100
1951 : 26 18 30 16 10 100
1952 : 30 15 30 15 10 100
1953 : 27 23 24 15 11 100
1954 : 29 19 26 16 10 100
1955 : 28 16 28 16 12 100
1956 : 29 16 28 15 12 100

_/ 1935-39 average on calendar year. 2/ Fat content. 3/ Unadjusted. 4/ Calculated from totals adjusted for exports
of products not identified by specific fat or oil, shipments to territories and changes in stocks of products and edible
secondary fats and oils.
Averages, totals, and percentages computed from unrounded figures.

Table 27.--Edible end products fats and oils: Domestic disappearance 1935-39 and
1952-56 averages and 1948-56 by years
Year beginning Margarine lard
Yearbeginning Margarine Butter 2/ ret use) : Shortening : Other Total 3/

Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb. Bil. lb.
Average
1935-39 : .3 1.8 1.4 1.5 .8 5.9
1952-56 : 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 7.5
1948 : .7 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 6.5
1949 : .7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.3 6.9
1950 : .8 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 6.8
1951 : .9 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 7.0
1952 : 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 7.0
1953 : 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.7 7.5
1954 : 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 7.7
1955 : 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 7.6
1956 : 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 7.8
Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pct. Pct.
Average
1935-39 : 5 30 25 27 13 100
1952-56 : 14 16 22 24 24 100
1948 : 11 20 29 22 18 100
1949 : 11 19 28 24 18 100
1950 : 12 18 28 22 20 100
1951 : 13 16 26 23 22 100
1952 : 15 15 26 22 22 100
1953 : 15 15 22 25 23 100
1954 : 14 16 21 25 24 100
1955 : 14 16 21 24 25 100
1956 : 15 15 21 24 25 100


1/ 1935-39 average on calendar year.
SFat content.
Not adjusted for exports of products not identified by specific fat or oil,
changes in stocks of products and edible secondary fats and oils.


Averages, totals, and percentages computed from unrounded figures.


shipments to territories and


FOS-187


- 51 -


NOVEMBER 1957





- 52 -


products" has increased from 0.8 billion pounds in 1935-39 to an average of
1.7 in 1952-56 and from 13 to 24 percent. It is this category which contin-
ues to show a substantial increase both quantitatively and percentagewise
each year (table 27). The fact that "other" has by 1956 become the most
important end product suggests that more data are needed on its component
parts.

The word "consumption" has been used advisedly in the preceding para-
graphs since the analysis has been running in terms of trends over the years.
However, the data as assembled by Census and used for these purposes is basi-
cally "domestic disappearance." It is a residual computed from reported
stocks, production, export and import data. As such it is not a sufficiently
refined tool to enable quarter-to-quarter or even year-to-year consumption
comparisons. Any error in reported data produces a reciprocal error in
"domestic disappearance." Shrinkage because of fires, accidents or other
causes becomes included. Shrinkage obviously varies greatly. The quantities
of primary fats and oils in end products stocks and exports are arbitrary
estimates. The export of much fat and oil in end products is not identifiable.
Further and possibly more important, unreported end product stocks can and do
vary greatly. "Domestic disappearance" is therefore at best only a guide to
consumption trends. Nevertheless it is the best guide available.

HOUSEHOLD USE OF FOOD FATS IN THE UNITED STATES

Detailed information on household use of food fats and oils is avail-
able from a 1955 nationwide survey of over 6,000 households. This informa-
tion has been cross-classified according to the region, degree of urbaniza-
tion, and family income of the households, and averages have been calculated
for each sub-category. A fairly extensive article in the October 1957 issue
of The National Food Situation reviews these data and those from earlier
surveys that are pertinent to the analysis of the household market for fats
and oils. Some of the highlights are given here.

Total Separated Fats and Oils 1/

Generally, among households surveyed as to their food uses in a week
in the spring of 1955, farm households used the most separated fats (butter,
margarine, lard, shortening, salad oils and dressings) per person. Urban
households used the least. Urban households obtained much more of these fats
from prepared foods such as bakery products than did farm households.

Average use of separated fats and oils varied among households of the
same urbanization category from one region to another. For example, among
urban households of 2 or more persons, average use ranged from a low of 0.70
pound per person during the survey week in the Northeast to 0.88 pounds in
the South.

1/ Separated fats are those used as such, in contrast with fat content of
foods such as meats and pastries. They comprise table fats, cooking fats,
and saladand cooking oils including those in salad dressings.


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NOVEMBER 1957








Households in the Northeast in each urbanization category were con-
sistently low in use of separated fats and oils compared to households in
the same urbanization category in the other regions.

Use per person of separated fats and oils decreased in rural nonfarm
and farm households in successively higher income groups. But among urban
households, average use increased with income. This increase was supplied by
the relatively greater use of prepared foods containing separated fats and
oils, such as bakery products, in the upper income groups of urban households.

Table Fats

Urban households used the same amount of butter per person as margar-
ine, an average of 0.20 pound each during the week reported in the survey.
Rural nonfarm households used more margarine than butter, and farm households
used more butter than margarine.

In all urbanization categories in all regions, use of butter generally
increased with income. Use of margarine was less affected by income.

Cooking Fats Purchased as Such

Farm households used the most lard per person and urban households
used the least in all regions. The vegetable shortening picture was not
quite so clear. Whereas in the Northeast farm households used the most per
person, they used the least in the North Central Region and the South. Low
income households in all urbanizations used more lard per person than vege-
table shortening. Use of lard decreased in households in successively
higher income groups. Use of vegetable shortening was about the same in
all income groups.

Salad and Cooking Oils and Prepared Salad Dressing

In the U. S. as a whole urban households averaged highest in use of
salad and cooking oils and prepared salad dressings, and farm households
the lowest. Western households used more of these commodities than did
households in the other regions. Generally, per person use of salad and
cooking oils and of prepared salad dressings increased with income.

Recent Changes in Use of Fats and Oils

Between 1942 and 1955 average use of total separated fats and oils
remained at the same level. Increase in the use of separated fat obtained
from prepared foods was offset by the decrease in use of separated fat


FOS-187


- $3 -


NOVEMBER 1957







purchased as such. The drop in average use of separated fat purchased as
such or home produced came from (1) changes in patterns of use according
to income, (2) changes in distribution of households among income groups,
and (3) changes in the proportion of households using the commodities.
Contributions of these sources of change to the change in average use of
individual fats and oils items are measured with survey data in the article
in The National Food Situation and their, impacts on overall disappearance
are evaluated.

REVISIONS IN PER CAPITAL SERIES

Civilian population data used in the per capital series in the past
were those adjusted for the percentage of underenumeration estimated to exist
in the Census of Population. A transition is being made to the population
data as reported, without adjustment. The change in all food consumption
series will conform with practices in other Government agencies.

CORRECTION

In the September 1957 issue of the Fats and Oils Situation, FOS-186,
Table 25, page 38, the data on crushing peanuts should read as follows:

Farmers Crushings
Year Stock 6/ Shelled 6/ Total

(mil. lb.)

1952 0 136 136

1953 0 210 210

1954 0 63 63

1955 0 189 189


0 192


- 54 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957


1956


192








APPENDIX
The following statements, usually presented at the Agricultural Out-
look Conference, are included here because of general interest in them.

ASTER YELLOWS DISEASE OF FLAXSEED 1/

The aster yellows disease of flax is frequently referred to as a new
disease. Actually it was recognized as a disease over 50 years ago when it
was suggested that a virus might be the cause. Occasionally during recent
years flax plants with the peculiar symptoms now known as aster yellows
were observed in commercial fields, particularly in the Dakotas and Minnesota.
In 1954 and 1955 the disease was noted in nearly all commercial fields in
Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas in amounts from a trace to 5 or 10 percent
in extreme cases. Only traces were found in most fields in 1956. In 1957,
however, the disease became of considerable importance when the infection
ranged from 0 to over 75 percent. Average losses in 1957 are estimated
at 25 to 30 percent.
It has been demonstrated that the disease is caused by a virus. So
far as known the six-spotted leafhopper is the only vector. Recent increases
of the disease are closely associated with increase in the insect population.
Symptoms are yellow stunted growth, contorted foliage, distortion and proli-
feration of the floral parts and development of prominent yellow, star-shaped
calyx, and failure in large measure to set bolls. No data are available on
loss in yield, but it is generally assumed to be fairly close to the per-
centage of diseased plants.
No effective method of control is known. Spraying or dusting with
appropriate chemicals will check the insect vector, but this method is too
costly. The development of resistant varieties may offer some hope for the
future, but the problem appears difficult and will require some time to solve.
Over 900 varieties of flax were grown in one of the heavily infested areas
in 1957 and noted for varietal resistance. While a number appeared to be
resistant, they probably were escapes--the insect may have preferred to feed
on other more palatable varieties.
Losses were usually less in early-sown fields than in fields sown
late. Thus, early sowing may offer some measure of control. In nearly all
seasons early-sown fields produce higher yields than late-sown fields, so
that delayed sowing may result in a double loss in yield. It is also known
that there is more damage in thin stands than in thicker stands. Sowing
sufficient seed and using good tillage practices to produce vigorous plants
may reduce losses from Aster Yellows.



I/ Statement prepared by Oilseed and Industrial Crops Research Branch,
Crop Research Division, ARS.


FOS-187


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NOVEMBER 1957








The question is frequently asked, "What are the chances of a recurrence
of the disease in 1958?" No one can accurately predict what may occur. Ap-
parently the distribution of the disease entirely depends upon the six-spotted
leaf hopper; extent of infestation will depend on the amber of leaf hoppers
next season. With a reduction in the population of the vector, less disease
would be expected. Further increases in the density of the population would
probably result in further increases in the disease. The role of weather may
also be important in its effect on the rate of hatch and survival of the leaf
hoppers.


SOYBEANS, COTTONSEED AND FLAXSEED PROCESSED BY METHOD
OF EXTRACTION, 1956-57 1/

The Marketing Research Division, AMS, has developed estimates on the
quantities of soybeans, cottonseed and flaxseed processed and the crude oil
produced by the various extraction methods for the 1956-57 season. These pre-
liminary estimates are based in part on information obtained from the Bureau
of the Census.

Soybeans processed during the 1956-57 season (October-September) totaled
316 million bushels or 9.5 million tons, 95 percent of which were processed by
the solvent extraction method. This is a 1 percent increase from the 1955-56
season and 9 percent larger than in 1952-53. The remaining 5 percent was pro-
cessed by the screw-press or hydraulic methods of extraction.

The average crude oil yields per ton of soybeans processed for the vari-
ous methods were as follows: solvent extraction, 365 pounds; screw-press and
hydraulic, 312 pounds. The U. S. average for all methods was 363 pounds.

During the 1956-57 season (August-July), about 4.9 million tons of cot-
tonseed were processed, of which 28 percent was processed by the hydraulic
method, 45 percent by the screw-press method, and the remaining 27 percent pro-
cessed by the solvent method of extraction.2/ Cottonseed processed by the sol-
vent extraction method has increased approximately 3 percent during the past
season and 6 percent since the 1952-53 season.

The average crude oil yields per ton of cotton seed processed during the
1956-57 season for the various processes were as follows: solvent extraction,
376 pounds; screw-press, 327 pounds; and hydraulic, 312 pounds. The U. S.
average for all methods was 340 pounds.


P Statement prepared by Marketing Research Division, AMS.


2/ Solvent extraction includes the prepress-solvent process.


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FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957







FOS-187


- 57 -


NOVEMBER 1957


Table 28.--Soybeans, cottonseed, flaxseed: Quantities processed by type of equipment,
oil produ'?d, and oil yield per ton for each process, 1 ''-57 season


Oilseeds Processed


Soybeans : Cottonseed / : F...
Type of equipment Tons :Peet Tons :Percent: Percent
: processed : : processed : : processed


Hydraulic press ..........: 2 :/ : 1,390,7 : 28.1 --
Continuous screw press ...:2/ 74,595: 5.0 2,212,398 : 44.7 :287,185 : 39.3
Solvent extraction .......: 9,017,307: 95.0 :1,346,247 : 27.2 :443,56 : 60.7

Total U. S. .............. :/9,491,902: 100.0 : 4,949,437 : 100.0 : 730,750 100.0


Crude Oil Produced


S Soybeans : Cottonseed 1/ Flaxseed 1/
Type of equipment : 1,000 :Percent: 1,000 :Percent: 1,000
pounds pounds pounds

Hydraulic press .......... 2/ 2/ : 447,510 : 26.6 : -- --
Continuous screw press ...: 7,680: 4.3 : 746,971 : 44.4 : 202,801 : .2
Solvent extraction .......: 3,286,736: 95.7 : 487,887 :29.0 :2/j,-092 61.8

-Total U. S. ..............:3/3,414,416: 100.0 :1,682,368 : 00.0 : 530,893 100o.


Oil Yield Per ro.


: Soybeans Cottonseed 1/ : Flaxseed I/
Type of equipment : Yiei :Fr.p rti.': eitl :PFropeti:- Yiel :Pr:>.r:
:per ton :of ton :per ton :of ton :per ton ; of ton

Hydraulic press ..........: / 312 : 15.6 : -- --
Continuous screw press ...: 312 15.6 :327 16.4 : 709 : 35.5
Solvent extraction .......: 365 : 19.2 376 : 18.8 : 747 : 37.4

Total U. S. .............. :3363 18.2 : 340 : 16.9 725 : .3

/ Solvent extraction includes prepress solvent extraction.
2 Hydraulic included with screw press.
/ The last month of the liJu-57 crop year estimated.


Based on AMS and Census data.






FOS-187


- 58 -


NOVEMBER 1957


During the 1956-57 season (July-June), flaxseed was processed only by
the screw-press and solvent methods of extraction, totaling nearly 731,000 tons.
Screw-press accounted for 39 percent and solvent extraction accounted for
61 percent. This is approximately a 4 percent increase in solvent extraction
during the past season and a 15 percent increase since the 1952-53 season.

Crude linseed oil yield by the solvent extraction method was 747 pounds
compared with 709 pounds by the screw-press method. The U. S. average for all
methods was 725 pounds.

Based on a 12-month crushing season and the quantity processed during
the biggest month of operation during the 1956-57 season, the soybean industry
utilized approximately 85 percent of its estimated 370 million bushel process-
ing capacity. On the same basis, the cottonseed industry utilized approxi-
mately 49 percent of its estimated capacity and the flaxseed industry 50 per-
cent of its estimated capacity.

CURRENT RESEARCH IN MARKETING FATS, OILS AND OILSEEDS BEING CONDUCTED
IN MARKETING RESEARCH DIVISION, AMS 1/

The following projects were listed in this Situation report a year ago.
Work under these line projects is still in progress.

Marketing Margins for Soybeans and Cottonseed--Margarine and Shortening
Economic Significance of Different Methods of Grading and Marketing
Soybeans
Labor and Power Utilization in Cottonseed Oil Mills
Marketing Significance of Changes in Farmers Stock Peanuts in Storage
Flaxseed Storage Practices Relating to Deterioration and Costs
Market Value of Tung Nuts as Related to Varying Composition
Factors Affecting Outturns and Quality of Stored Castor Beans
Storage of Vegetable Oils in Relation to Costs
Protection of Farmers Stock Peanuts from Insect Attack
Market Outlets for Inedible Fats in Feeds
New and Expanded Market Outlets for Fats and Oils in Plasticizers
Market Outlets for Proteins from Agricultural and Chemical Sources
Consumer Preferences for Peanuts and Tree Nuts
Evaluation of the Effect of Coupons and "Special Offers" on Sales of
Food Fats and Oils at the Retail Level
Aerating of Soybeans in Commercial Storage
Improving Efficiency in Peanut Marketing
Marketing Organization and Practices for Mellorine

1/ Statement prepared by Marketing Research Division, AMS.








Brief descriptions of line projects initiated during the past year is
given below.

Marketing Practices Affecting Procurement and Use of Major Vegetable
Oils. This project includes a study of the impact of economic forces on fats
and oils product manufacturers in selecting oils--such factors as supply, qua-
lity, and price. The study will analyze the importance of management decisions
and economics of the firm, including plant size, integration as related to pro-
cessing and merchandising, types of products made, and efficiency of labor and
power use. Secondary sources of information will be utilized jointly with data
obtained directly from refiners and users of oilseeds and fats and oils. The
nature of the finished products, proportions and variations in use of each of
the major oils, buying and merchandising methods, management and processing
practices, variations in inventories, and interchangeability of different oils
and substitutions of other materials, including animal fats, will be secured
from representative firms in the industry.

Methods for Determining Moisture Content in Grains, Seeds and Other
Farm Crops. The study of the applicability of the Karl Fischer chemical method
as a basic method for the determination of moisture in grains was completed.
The results showed that official oven methods gave correct moisture values for
wheat, oats, barley, rice, and rye, but gave low moisture values for soybeans
and flaxseed and high values for pea beans and corn. The application of the
Karl Fischer method to moisture determination of many classes of agricultural
seeds will be continued far the purpose of providing a basis for precise oven
test methods. Research concerned with the dielectric properties of grain will
be terminated when the measurements and data obtained with the improved instru-
mentation are completed.

Simple Fat Acidity Test. The purpose of this survey is to study the re-
lationship of the fat acidity value to the degree and type of damage found in
grain. Samples of barley, beans, corn, grain sorghum, rice, rye, soybeans and
wheat having different amounts and types of damage were tested for moisture
content, fat content and fat acidity. Enough data have been obtained on some
types of damage to determine their relationship to fat acidity values. It is
apparent that some types of damage are more clearly reflected in the fat acid-
ity test than others. When this study is completed, the true value of the fat
acidity test as an index of soundness of grain may be more sharply defined.

Sampling and Grading of Farmers Stock Peanuts. Work has been initiated
on the development and testing of an automatic sampler, a machine to shell the
sample, and a method for detecting curing damage in peanuts in an effort to
develop improved methods and equipment for the grading of peanuts. A recipro-
cating type peanut sheller was constructed and tested at the North Carolina
field station. This work will be continued to field-test the automatic sam-
pler, to complete experimental development of the sheller, and to continue de-
velopment work on other devices applicable to peanut grading.


- 59 -


FOs-187


NOVEMBER 1957








Fats and Oils and Derived Materials as Lubricants, Lubricant Additives
and Hydraulic Fluids. Marketing research to evaluate the present and potential
market for fats and oils and derived products in lubricants, lubricant addi-
tives and hydraulic fluids will be carried out by this study. To be ascer-
tained are the potential markets for chemically processed products of fats and
oils in new and thermically critical lubricant needs for jet engines, hydrau-
lic systems, and other specialty applications.



Marketing Research Reports Pertaining to Oilseeds and Fats and Oils
Released During the Past Year

"Marketing Research by U. S. Department of Agriculture, Pertaining to
Storage, Sampling, and Grading of Farmers Stock Peanuts by
C. B. Gilliland. Mimeographed statement presented at the Peanut
Research Conference, Atlanta, Georgia. February 21, 1957.



"Conversion of Small Hydraulic Cottonseed Oil Mills into Higher Oil-
Yielding Mills," USDA, Marketing Research Report No. 187. July 1957.

"Comparative Laboratory Tests with Emulsion and Wettable Powder Residues
Against the Indian-Meat Moth," by B. Kantack and H. Laudani, Journal
of Economic Entomology 50(4): 513-14. August 1957.

"Application of the Karl Fischer Method to Grain Moisture Determination,"
by Joe R. Hart and M. H. Neustadt. Cereal Chemistry 34(1):26.
January 1957.

"An Improved Rapid Method for Determining Fat Acidity in Grain," 1 page
mimeographed publication. June 1957.

"Applications of the Fat Acidity Test as an Index in Grain Deterioation,"
by Doris Baker, L. Zeleny, and M. H. Neustadt, Cereal Chemistry 34(4):
226. July 1957.

"Institutional Market Potentials for Oilseed Proteins," by Constance L.
Brine, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Mass., USDA, Marketing
Research Report No. 151. December 1956.

"Evaluation of Retail Merchandising Practices for Pears, Peanut Butter,
and Creamery Butter," USDA, Marketing Research Report No. 180.
June 1957.


PFs-187


- 60 -


NOVEMBER 1957








CURRENT RESEARCH IN UTILIZATION OF FATS, OILS, AND OILSEEDS
CARRIED ON IN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UTILIZATION RESEARCH
AND DEVELOPMENT DIVISIONS, ARS 1/


Southern Utilization Research
and Development Division

Oilseed research at the SURDD intends to broaden the utilization of
cottonseed, rice, peanuts and tung fruit and, by thorough chemical analysis,
to evaluate possible replacement crops such as jojoba (Simmondsia) and Castor.

A large-scale poultry and swine feeding experiment, coordinated
through this laboratory, has been completed in an effort to further the Ise
of cottonseed meals for such feeds. Chemical analyses for lysine content in-
dicate that processing conditions influence the lysine content of the meals;
moreover, there is a definite correlation between this amino acid and the
nutritive value of the meal. A similar study on the lysine content of peanuts
indicates that the peanut protein is damaged considerably by heat during
processing. In another line of research, the bitter principles of peanut
hearts have been isolated from improperly cured peanuts. Preliminary charac-
terization indicates that they are saponins similar to those found in other
oilseeds. More fundamental research has been done on determining the struc-
ture of peanut protein. This information may lead to a more complete under-
standing of their nutritive quality and improvement of processing techniques.

Research continues on tung and castor meals to develop an economical
method for their detoxification. Tung and castor oil also are being investi-
gated. Tung, castor and jojoba derivatives are being evaluated as possible
components of polyvinyl chloride plasticizers. Other tung oil derivatives
have been evaluated in polyester resins. The monoglycerides of tung oil show
promise, in tests, as ingredients of fugitive emulsifiers.

Considerable tests have been made to develop new fat products for use
as lubricants and pan greases in food processing. A short screening technique
(utilizing microbial enzymes) is being developed which could be used for
testing edibility of these new fats; the most promising will be subjected to
more thorough animal experiments.

In order to maintain cottonseed oil's present edible oil market, a
means for treating the crude oil is being developed to give the final bleached
oil a prime color. Treatment with polyfunctional amines is being tested on a
large scale in the pilot plant and will be ready soon for evaluation by
industry. If successful, such treatment will make possible the sale of more
than one fourth of the present surplus of poor oil as prime oil.



I/ Statements prepared by Southern and Northern Utilization Research and
Development Divisions, ARS.


FOS-187


- 61 -


NOVEMBER 1957






FOS-187


- 62 -


NOVEMBER 1957


Work has continued on determining the reactions that take place during
partial hydrogenation of the fatty acids of cottonseed oil derivatives and of
cottonseed oil. This information is useful in determining the new types of
dibasic acids that can be formed from cottonseed oil, some of which may have
industrial significance. It also indicates changes which take place in
edible oils during the normal commercial hydrogenation process and could
possibly lead to improved hydrogenation techniques.

Cottonseed oil is being tested as the main constituent of an emulsion
for intravenous feeding. This work is supported by the Office of the
Surgeon General, and if successfully completed will be a great milestone in
medical and utilization research.

Continued research on Southern agricultural commodities intends to
broaden present uses and create new uses, thus helping to cut down surpluses.

Northern Utilization Research
and Development Division

Two major outlets for vegetable oils in nonfood products are (1) pro-
tective coatings and (2) plastic compositions. Efforts have been concen-
trated on the further development of a number of polymers of the vinyl
ethers of soybean and linseed fatty alcohols which show excellent potential
as protective coating materials, and on adducts from conjugated fatty acids
from soybean and safflower oils.

Industry has cooperated in the preliminary evaluation of the vinyl
ether polymers as protective coating materials for specific purposes. These
polymers are new drying oils with properties different from other available
materials. Their unusual adhesion to black iron and other metals and their
alkali resistance make them unique among polymers derived from vegetable
oils. Several industrial concerns are interested in coatings of this nature
and have undertaken studies to further evaluate them for specific uses,
including the coating of cans in place of tin.

Adducts of esters of conjugated soybean and safflower fatty acids with
acrylic and maleic esters are primary plasticizers for polyvinyl chloride.
Satisfactory methods for preparing and purifying these compounds have been
developed and quantities of 12 of them are ready for detailed evaluation of
their properites as plasticizers and stabilizers.

Soybean oil continues to maintain its position as the major edible fat
of the country. Over 2 billion pounds are consumed, more than 75 percent of
which is in the forms of margarine and shortening. Only small amounts of
liquid soybean oil are marketed directly to the consumer. About one-half bil-
lion pounds are marketed as salad oil. Since edible oils containing relatively
high percentages of essential fatty acids may become increasingly importantfor
nutritional reasons, research on the stabilization of soybean oil remains a
major goal. Recent research on the role of tocopherols in the oxidative









stability of soybean oil and the effectiveness of certain classes of chemicals
as metal-inactivating agents have shown that further improvements in liquid
soybean oil are possible and that the problems associated with the use of
liquid soybean oil in cooking might be surmounted.

Soybean oil meal serves as the primary protein concentrate for the
nation's livestock feed industry. In order to establish processing conditions
for the production of meals of maximum nutritive value, a study of the minor
constituents, including minor protein components, has evaluated the effect of
processing variables on their inherent properties and nutritive value.

Soybean oil meal is also a primary source of vegetable protein for
glues and adhesives. Basic studies on the nature of soybean protein are in
progress to furnish the information required to extend its use for industrial
purposes.

Cooperative studies have been initiated to improve the acceptability of
American soybeans for making foreign-type soybean food products. The studies
are sponsored jointly by the American Soybean Association, Foreign Agricul-
tural Service, and the Agricultural Research Service. It is anticipated that
the results of this joint undertaking will stimulate the export of soybeans.

SPECIAL ARTICLES IN SITUATION REPORTS, 1956-57

"Food Fats and Oils Supply About Same as Last Season," George W. Kromer,
Agricultural Situation, October 1956.

"Review of Historical Trends and the 5-Year Soybean Outlook," Fats and Oils
Situation, November 1956.

"Exports of Food Fats and Oils May Equal Last Year's Record," George W.
Kromer, Agricultural Situation, January 1957.

"Demand for Soybeans Good But What About Prices?" George W. Kromer,
Agricultural Situation, March 1957.

"Trends in Nonfood Uses of Fats and Oils," Fats and Oils Situation, March 1957.

"Trends in Food Uses of Fats and Oils," Fats and Oils Situation, May 1957.

"Tallow Exports are Increasing," George W. Kromer, Agricultural Situation,
June 1957.

"Trends in Imports and Utilization of Copra and Coconut Oil, 1912-56,"
Fats and Oils Situation, July 1957.

"Food Use of Fats and Oils Down One Pound in 1956," George W. Kromer,
Agricultural Situation, August 1957.


- 63 -


uuv.-ImER 1957


FOS-187





- 64 -


NOVEMBER 1957


"Cottonseed and Cottonseed Products, 1909-56," Fats and Oils Situation,
September 1957.

"Soybean Demand Good; Record Crop Possible," George W Kromer,
Agricultural Situation, October 1957.

"Household Use of Fats and Oils in the United States," Robert J. Lavell,
National Food Situation. October 1957.

"Can Cottonseed Oil Make Major Comeback?" George W. Kromer,
Agricultural Situation, November 1957.






: Issue dates for The Fats and Oils
: Situation are January, March, May,
: July, September, and November (Outlook:
: Number). The next issue is scheduled
: for release late in January.


FOS-187








Table 29.- Price support operations for oilseeds, 1947-57*

Crop year 1!

Item Unit 1947 :1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 195 : 1955: 1956 1957


Soybeans:

Support price
Support price percentage of parity:
Price received by farmers per
bushels
Production
Placed under loan or purchased
under support program:
Quantity
Percentage of crop
Acquired by CCC
CCC carryout stocks, Sept. 30

Cottonseed:

Support price:
Basis grade 100 --
Loan
Purchase
Percentage of parity
Price received by farmers per ton
Production
Placed under loan or purchased
under support program:
As seed
As oil, crude basis
Percentage of crop _/
Acquired by CCC:
As seed
As oil, crude basis
CCC (carryout) stocks of oil,
crude basis, July 31

Flaxseed:

Support price
Percentage of parity
Price received by farmers per
bushel
Production
Placed under loan or purchased
under support program:
As seed
As oil
Percentage of crop
Acquired by CCC:
As seed
As oil
CCC carryout stocks June 30:
As seed
As oil

Tung nuts and oil:

Support price:

Nuts, per ton
Oil, per pound
Percentage of parity
Price received by farmers:
Nuts, per ton
Oil, per pound J/
Production:
Nuts
Oil
Placed under loan or purchased
under support program:
Nuts
Oil
Acquired by CCC--Oil
CCC carryout stocks of oil Oct. 31:


Dol.
Pet.

Dol.
Mil. bu.


Mil. bu.
Pet.
Mil. bu.
Mil. bu.





2oi.
Dol.

Pet.
Dol.
1,000 tons


1,000 tons
Mil. lb.
Pet.

1,000 tons
Mil. lb.

Mil. lb.



Dol.
Pet.

Dol.
Mil. bu.


Mil. bu.
Mil. lb.
Pet.

Mil. bu.
Mil. lb.

Mil. bu.
Mil. lb.





Dol.
Ct.
Pet.

Dol.
Ct.

1,000 tons
Mil. lb.


1,000 tons
Mil. lb.
Mil. lb.
Mil. lb.


2.04 2.18 2.11 2.06 2.45 2.56 2.56 2.22 2.04 2.15 2.09
90 90 90 80 90 90 90 80 70 75 70

3.33 2.27 2.16 2.47 2.73 2.72 2.73 2.46 2.22 /2.17
186.5 227.2 234.2 299.2 283.8 298.8 269.2 341.1 373.5 55.9 1/491.4


11.0 16.1 15.0 11.1
4.8 6.9 5.0 3.9
10.7 2/ 2
6.3 2 2


No program 50.65
46.50
90
85.90 67.20 43.40
4,682 5,945 6,559


-- --- 811.5
S- 51.1
S- 14.8

--- 803.6
S- 51.1

--- -- 82.5



5.75 5.75 3.74
160 143 90

6.15 5.71 3.63
40.6 54.8 43.0


26.5
95.0
57.1

24.6
95.0

17.5
295.8


6/72.00 No
25.0 program


64.90 49.10


53.2 58.5
16.0 17.0



7.8 ---
7.8 ---
7.8 ---


11.9

27.7

9.7


13.4
471.7





60.00
24.1
60

63.70
25.0

87.9
26.8



1.6
1.6
1.6


51.00 65.50
47.00 61.50
73 90
86.60 69.30
4,105 6,286


.5
-- 136.2
--- 6.8

--- .1
--- 136.2

--- 135.5


2.57 2.65 3.77 3.79
60 60 80 80

3.34 3.72 3.72 3.64
40.2 34.7 30.2 37.7


1.0

2.5




3.2
521.4





63.00
25.1
60

111.00
36.7

36.5
12.3





1.6


1.9

5.5




.2
498.6





67.20
26.5
60

106.00
39.1

49.1
14.7





.5


5.5 19.0

18.2 50.4

4.9 17.5


5.2 8.8
489.5 42.0





67.20 63.38
26.5 23.9
62 65

79.80 66.80
28.6 23.8

132.1 120.0
43.4 39.6



7.9 33.2
5.8 32.8
5.8 38.6


31.8 41.1 27.5 65.6
11.8 12.1 7.4 14.4
2/ 15.5 2/ 24.5
2/ 6.6 2/ 2.0


66.40 54.50 54.00 46.00
62.40 50.50 50.00 42.00
90 75 75 65
69.60 52.70 60.30 44.60
6,190 6,748 5,709 6,043


48.00
44.00
70
3/53.50
5,423


46.00
42.00
65

, L., ,


1.4 .1 -- --
384.1 227.3 -
17.2 12.0 --

--- --- --- ---
384.1 227.3 -- -

899.2 57.8 / --


3.14 2.91
70 65


3.09 2.92
70 65


3.05 2.90 3/2.99
41.3 41.2 48.7 3/27.1


10.4 7.1 17.5

25.2 17.2 35-9

8.7 2/ 16.1


54.96 51.06 53.76
21.2 20.0 21.0
60 60 65

59.40 64.00 3/53.40
23.3 24.4 22.7

51.0 6.2 103.5
15.1 2.0 3/32.0


52.13
20.5
65


.4 -
5.1 -

19.2 .4


s~g..uu...ag Ju.ue J. br- sonaa Puus .1rrctOeJl rrrasesesv


Iy pinnna uCWucr I ior sayoeans, Augusr I ror cotoanseea, July I ror fIaxseea, ana novemA
/ Less than 50,000 bushels.
3 Preliminary.
SPercent that seed plus oil is of the production.
Less than 50,000 pounds.
Price processors required to pay for tung nuts in order to be eligible to sell oil to CCC.
F.o.b. southern mill. Prices not available prior to 1949.

*Does not include olive oil for which support programs were in effect only in 1951 and 1952.

Prepared by Oils and Peanut Division, CSS.


er 1 ror rung nurs ans o01.


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957





FOS-187 66 NOVEMBER 1957

Table 30.--Oilseed cakes and meals: Supply and distribution,
United States, year beginning October, 1953-57

Supply Distribution
Oilseed cake:
and meal Stocks : : : : Other : : Stocks
(Oct 1) auctionn :Imports : Total : Feed uses Exports(Sept. 3
1 / :_1000 : 1,000 __: u:ses; y 3
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: tons tons tons tons tons tons tons tons

1953-54
Soybean : 57 5,051 16 5,124 4,965 30 67 62
Cottonseed: 3/142 3,019 70 3,226 2,925 30 66 205
Linseed : 23 577 1 601 526 --- 35 40
Peanut : 2 63 1 66 63 -- 2 1
Copra : 6 116 80 202 196 --- 0 6
Total : 230 8,821 168 9,219 8,675 60 170 314

1954-55
Soybean : 62 5,705 0 5,767 5,428 30 272 37
Cottonseed: 205 2,515 32 2,752 2,404 30 168 150
Linseed : 40 545 0 585 488 --- 75 22
Peanut : 1 19 0 20 17 --- 2 1
Copra : 6 117 63 186 182 --- 0 4
Total : 314 8,901 95 9,310 8,519 60 517 214

1955-56
Soybean : 37 6,546 0 6,583 6,042 30 400 111
Cottonseed: 150 2,628 59 2,837 2,510 30 156 141
Linseed : 22 582 0 604 439 --- 153 12
Peanut : 1 58 0 59 27 --- 30 2
Copra : 4 112 45 161 160 --- 0 1
Total 214 9,926 104 10,244 9,178 60 739 267

1956-57 4/ :
Soybean : 111 7,509 2/ 7,620 7,092 30 443 55
Cottonseed: 141 2,289 60 2,490 2,226 30 30 204
Linseed : 12 574 0 586 482 --- 40 64
Peanut : 2 62 0 64 46 --- 15 3
Copra : 1 113 65 179 178 --- 0 1
Total : 267 WO ,547 125 10,939 10,024 60 528 327

1957-58 6 :
Soybean : 55 7,750 --- 7,805
Cottonseed: 204 2,150 60 2,414
Linseed : 64 500 --- 564
Peanut : 3 60 --- 63
Copra : 1 120 65 186
Total : 327 10,580 125 11,032

I/ Stocks at processors' plants. 2/ Estimated quantities of soybean meal used for
industrial purposes and cottonseed meal used for fertilizer on farms of cotton growers
/ Includes 29,000 tons owned by CCC and not stored at processors' plants. h/ Prelim-
inary. _2/ Less than 500 tons. 6/ Forecast except for stocks on Octobef 1, 1957.








Table 31.--Wholesale prices, of fats, oils and oilseed meals,
specified markets, year beginning October
Fats and oils, per pound
:Oct. 1956-Sept. 1957

Item : 1953- : 1954- : 1955- : Range Aver- M
: 54 : 55 : 56 -:age 12 1957
.age 12
Low High 'months
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Butter, 92-scord, Chicago
Lard, tank carlots, Chicago
Cottonseed oil, crude, S. E. mills
Soybean oil, crude, tank cars,
Midwest mills
Corn oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. mills
Peanut oil, crude, tanks,
f.o.b. mills
Edible tallow, loose, Chicago
Olive oil, imported, edible,
drums, New York
Margarine, white, domestic vegetable,
Chicago
Shortening, cottonseed, hydrogenated,
10 drum lots, New York
Inedible tallow, prime, Chicago
Grease, yellow, Chicago
Coconut oil,ccrude, tank cars,
Pacific Coast 1
Linseed oil, raw, tank cars,
Minneapolis
Palm oil, Congo, drums, New York
Castor oil, dehydrated, tanks,
New York
Tung oil, tanks, New York
Menhaden oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b.
Baltimore


61.5
16.2
13.7

13.5
14.2

17.8
10.4

30.7

27.2

23.2
6.2
5.5

17.2

15.1
12.5

22.4
23.1

7.4


57.8
11.5
13.1

11.9
13.4

18.2
9.5

31.1

25.9

22.2
7.0
6.4

14.9

13.1
12.8

20.7
23.3


58.4
10.3
13.1


59.4 61.9 59.9
11.3 13.9 12.7
12.7 14.5 13.5


12.6 11.3 14.4 12.7
13.5 12.8 14.9 13.8

16.1 13.8 18.9 15.3
9.4 10.8 13.3 12.2

42.8 35.7 48.1 43.7

26.6 26.2 28.2 27.4

21.8 22.1 24.2 23.1
6.9 6.8 7.9 7.1
6.3 5.8 7.2 6.4

14.0 13.8 15.9 14.5

13.9 12.7 14.2 13.2
14.4 14.9 15.7 15.3

22.6 24.4 28.6 27.6
24.9 22.2 23.8 23.0

8.8 8.5 9.1 8.8


Oilseed Meals, per ton 2/


Copra meal, Los Angeles
Cottonseed meal, 41 percent protein,
Memphis
Linseed meal, 36 percent protein,
Minneapolis
Peanut meal, 45 percent protein,
f.o.b. S. E. mills
Soybean meal, 44 percent protein,
Chicago
Soybean meal, 44 percent protein,
bulk, Decatur


Dol.

67.40

66.85

69.95

79.05

89.80

78.65


Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.

70.80 68.60 62.25 73.50 66.65


64.25


54.85 51.60


65.25 58.85 50.10


73.85


55.75


71.50 63.50

60.70 52.55


58.40 55.20

63.00 56.10


43.80 58.50 50.20

55.75 64.40 58.85

44.25 52.90 47.45


Dol.

55.50

50.25

49.00

52.50

56.50

45.50


2/ Bagged carlots except soybean meal at Decatur, which is bulk.


59.0
11.4
13.4

11.4
14.2

16.0


34.7

27.0

22.2
8.1
7.4

13.0

15.0
15.0

28.1
23.8


1/ 3 cents added to allow for tax on first domestic processing. Beginning October 1, 1957
processing tax was suspended.


FOS-187


- 67 -


NOVEMBER 1957








Table 32.- Fats, oils, including margarine and shortening, and tall oil: Production from domestic and
imported materials, -and factory and warehouse stocks at end of month

Production Stocks

October-September : 1956 1957 1956 : 1957
Items grouped by major use ____
1 : : : a i
:1955-56 : 1956-57 :Septembae August :September: Sept. 30 : Aug. 31 t Sept. 30

Mil. lb. Nil. lb. Nil. lb. Yil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Ml. lb. Nil. lb.

PRIMARY FATS AND OILS


Food fats and oils
- tter 2/ ......................:. 1414.8
Lard and rendered pork fat ..: 2632.0
Beef fats ......................: 278.4
Total edible animal fats .....: 4325.2

Corn oil .......................: 269.8
Cottonseed oil .................: 1888.2
Olive oil, edible ..............: .5
Peanut oil ....................: 79.1
Soybean oil ....................: 3142.6
Total edible vegetable oils ..: 5380.2

Soa fats and oils
Tallow, inedible, and greases :
excluding wool grease / ......: 3120.5
Palm oil ....................... -
Fish oil .......................: 204.3
Marine mammal oil ...............: ..
Olive oil, inedible and foots ..: ---
Coconut oil ....................: 415.4
Total soap fats ..............: 3740.2

Drying oils
Castor oil, dehydrated .........: 21.4
Linseed oil ....................: 624.8
Oiticica oil ...................: _
Tung oil .....................: .4
Total drying oils ............: 646.6

Other industrial oils and fats
Cod oil and fish-liver oils ....: 1.8
Castor oil, No. 1 and No. 3 6/..: 8.9
Rapeseed oil .................. :
Other vegetable oils ...........: 30.6
Total ........................: 41.3

Grand total 7/ 8/ ............... 14133.5

From domestic materials ........: 13687.9
From imported materials ........: 455.6

FAT-AND-OIL PRODUCTS

Shortening .....................: 1810.7
Margarine ......................: 1332.8
Mono-and di-glycerides (edible).: 80.5
Fatty acids ....................: 523.4
Tall oil ........,...............: 619.8


1408.0
2427.0
299.2
4134.2

275.2
1621.9
5.3
84.4
3431.3
5418.1



3000.3

149.1


415.8
3565.2


19.0
634.9

32.0
685.8


1.4
-6.9

41.9
36.3

13839.6

411.8
427.8



1826.5
1451.3
81.5
492.3
547.4


92.2
177.0
18.0
287.2

21.6
165.5

2.2
221.3
401.5



239.7

22.5


32.6
294.8


1.6
46.9


48.5


.1
.1

5.9
5.9

1047.0

1012.9
34.1



133.4
115.0
6.3
39.2
41.7


108.8
159.0
26.7
294.5

24.5
48.4

7.5
276.6
357.0



232.7

26.3


32.3
291.3


1.3
68.4


69.7


.1
-1.3
6.7
5.5

1018.1

985.8
32.3



160.5
116.8
7.3
48.8
44.0


91.4
173.0
24.2
288.6

22.7
114.7
u-7-
7.7
244.4
389.5


241.9

26.3


32.6
300.9


1.3
58.8


60.1


.1
-1.1

5.0
4.0

1043.1

1010.3
32.8



160.2
120.7
6.7
40.2
39.0


10.3
123.4
10.2
223.9

22.5
253.8
6.4
27.1
226.5
536.3



306.3
22.3
84.3
28.5

75.
516.8


3.2
101.4
6.1
10.5
121.3


1.7
34.4

25.6
62.5







129.2
.22.2
3.4
59.2
96.3


171.8
76.6
19.4
267.8

18.5
135.7
4.4
11.2
312.9
482.7



255.9
21.0
52.1
23.1
.1
47.0
399.1


1.5
98.9
5.9
28.1
134.5


2.4
19.7
1.2
26.9
50.1







108.4
28.5
5.5
55.4
112.1


1 Factory production except as otherwise noted.
/ Creamery butter production and cold-storage stocks. United States Department of Agriculture.
/ Total commercial. Excludes farm production. Federally inspected in October 1955-1956 totaled 2,325.1 million
pounds. October 1956-Sept. 1957 totaled 2,135.3 millionpounds.
STotal apparent production, Agricultural Marketing Service. (Computed from factory consumption and stocks)
Less than 50,000 lbs.
SProduction of No. 1 and No. 3 minus production of dehydrated castor oil.
SComputed from unrounded numbers
SExcludes estimated output of farm butter and farm lard, 373 million pounds in October 1955-September 1956
338 million pounds in October 1956-September 1957.


-68-


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957


145.1
68.7
17.0
230.8

15.6
145.6
3.9
12.1
285.9
463.1



239.1
18.7
45.3
33.8
.1
56.7
393.6


1.7
101.8
4.4
25.0
132.8


2.3
20.8
1.0
26.8
50.9







112.7
27.3
3.4
55.6
105.9







-69-

Table 33.- Imports and exports of fats, oils, oil-bearing materials
and fat-and-oil products in terms of oil


NOVEMBER 1957


Imports for Exports 1/
consumption
Item Oct.- : 197 : Oct.-August : 1957

:19 57: July August 1955-56'1956-57 July August "September
: Mil.1b. Mil.lb. Mil.1b. MIi.1b. Mil.1b. Mil.1b. Mil.1b. Mil.lb.


Food fats and oils
Butter ........................................: .7
Lard ........................................ ---
Beef fats .................................... 3.5
Total, edible animal fate .................: 4.3

Cottonseed oil .............................. --
Cottonseed (17.0 percent) ...................:
Olive oil, edible ...........................: 39.8
Peanut oil .................................. ---
Peanuts, shelled (43 percent) ...............: -
Soybean oil ................................. ---
Soybeans .....................................: -
Other vegetable oils ........................: 7.8
Total, edible vegetable oils ..............: 47.6

Soap fats and oils
Tallow, inedible ............................: 2.6
Greases .....................................: .4
Fish and fish liver oils non-medicinal ......: 9.0
Marine maamal oils ..........................: 40.3
Foots and soap stock, including olive oil ...: .2
Palm oil ....................................: 16.8
Total, slow-lathering oils ................. 69.4

Coconut oil ................ .................: 169.1
Copra (63 percent) ..........................: 359.1
Palm kernel oil .............................: 43.8
Total, lauric-acid oils ...................: 572.0

Dryi oils
Flaxseed (35.7 percent) ..................... 2/
Linseed oil .................................: --
Oiticica oil ................................: 9.6
Tung oil ..................................... 36.6
Total .....................................: 46.2

Other industrial oils and fate
Cashew nut shell liquid oil) ..............: 8.7
Castor oil ..................................: 95.2
Castor beans (45 percent) ...................: 9.9
Fish-liver oils, medicinal ..................: 13.3
Neat's-foot oil and stock ...................: -
Rapeseed oil ...............................: 4.7
Wool grease .................................: 7.0
Other vegetable oils and fats, inedible .....: .2
Total .....................................: 139.0

Other products (fat content)
Margarine ................................... 1.0
Shortening ..................................: --
Cooking and salad oils ...................... --
Salad products ..............................: --
Soap ........................................: 1.2
Fatty acids .................................: 1.0
Total .....................................: 3.2

Grand total /........................... 881.6

Tall oil......................................: --


.1 2/ 229.1
--- --- 624.1
.7 --- 41.9
.7 2/ 895.1

-- 580.7
4.9
2.9 3.4 ---
2.5
-- --- 2.9
-- -- 480.7
S 709.3
.4 .2 21.2
3.3 3.6 1,802.2


1,241.0
131.3
138.3
.2
19.3

1,530.0

9.0
2/?
9.0


188.7
110.2

1.1
300.2



1.4

.4
.4


14.9
17.1


--- 3.3
--- 8.5

--- 2.3
.2 13.6
23.4
.3 51.1

71.3 4,604.8

39.1


13.6
499.0
14.5
527.1

408.8
3.7

24.5
19.2
780.1
897.6
12.4
2,146.4


1,207.0
105.5
106.1
.8
10.8

1,430.0

8.4
?/
8.4


153.3
116.0

1.4
270.7



2.2

.3
.4


26.3
29.3


3.3
8.1
12.1
2.6
16.3
19.8
62.2

4,473.9

46.1


0.4
34.7
1.1
36.2

21.9
.1

.1
2.3
34.3
50.8
.2
109.8


0.2
24.3
.7
25.2

28.6
2/

.9
2.6
20.5
86.0
1.0
139.6


119.1 79.3
2.7 7.8
5.0 15.8

.1 .2

127.0 103.0

.6 1.5


.6 1.5


.3 .3

i/
.1


.6 2.4
.9 2.8


.3
.6
1.4
.3
1.8
.8
5.1

364.9

4.3


.7
1.8
1.3
.3
1.2
1.9
6.7

372.9

2.2


Fos-187


0.1
30.5
.8
31.5

14.1
2/
.6

27.2
49.5
.5
91.9


110.2
8.2
24.9
.8


144.1

.9


.9


32.6
16.4

~---
49.0



.2





1.1
1.2


.1
.6
5.6
.2
1.4
1.6
9.6



3.4


1/ Includes re-exports of coconut, palm, and tung oils, olive-oil foots and copra. Does not include shipment.
Shipments average about 80 million pounds per year of which approximately 55 million are lard.
SLess than 50,000 pounds.
SComputed from unrounded numbers.






70 -
Table 34.- Index numbers of wholesale prices of fate and oils


1947-49=100
Item : October : 1957
1955 1956 August September : October

All fats and oils ....................: 68 72 73 74 73
All fats and oils, except butter .....: 58 62 64 64 64
Grouped by origin:
mlats ....................... 74 77 78 79 78
Vegetable oils, domestic ...........: 56 63 60 59 60
Vegetable oils, foreign ............ 65 67 78 80 80
Group y use
Butter ..............................: 86 90 88 90 88
Butter, seasonally adjusted ........: 82 86 92 88 85
Lard ...............................: 59 68 68 69 66
Food fats other than butter ........: 58 67 65 64 64
Food fats other than butter and lard: 58 66 63 62 62
All edible fats and oils .........: 72 79 77 77 76
Soap fats ..........................: 58 53 60 62 62
Drying oils .......................: 58 63 68 70 71
Other industrial ...................: 57 57 63 64 65
All industrial ..................: 58 56 63 64 65
Edible vegetable oils, grouped by
degree of processing:
Crude ............................: 58 66 62 61 62
Refined ..........................: 68 70 66 64 68
End products .....................: 80 84 84 84 85

All indexes except "Butter, seasonally adjusted" and "Other industrial" from Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Table 35.- Price received by farmers and prices at terminal markets for specified
oil-bearing materials and oilmeals

: : October : 1957
Ite Unit 1955 1956 August .September' October

: : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars

Castor beans, Brazilian ports ..............Long ton : 129.25 157.50 166.20 157.00 146.75
Copra, Philippines, c.i.f. Pacific Coast ...:Short ton: 155.38 151.88 161.80 165.12 162.00
Cottonseed, United States average ..........:Short ton: 43.50 54.10 55.70 53.20 49.80
Flaxseed, No. 1, Minneapolis ..............: Bushel : 3.01 3.27 3.25 3.40 3.40
Flaxseed, United States average .............: Bushel : 2.76 2.92 2.84 3.04 2.99
Peanuts, No. 1, shelled, Spanish,
Southeastern shipping points / ........: 100 lb. : 18.62 19.25 17.50 17.50 19.00
Peanuts, United States average .............: 100 lb. : 11.80 11.60 10.70 10.50 9.93
Soybeans, No. 2, Yellow, Chicago ...........: Bushel : 2.24 2.30 -- --- 2.26
Soybeans, No. 2, Yellow, Illinois
country shipping points ...................: Bushel : 2.22 2.21 2.40 2.19 2.13
Soybeans, United States average ............: Bushel : 2.08 2.07 2.27 2.13 2.04

S : ;Oilseed Meals g/

Copra meal, Los Angeles 3/ .................tShort ton: 71.40 73.50 64.90 62.25 58.90
Cottonseed meal, 41 percent protein,.Memphis:Short ton: 55.10 55.50 58.40 53.95 51.00
Cottonseed meal, 41 percent protein, Chicago:Short ton: 66.30 66.80 68.95 66.60 63.25
Linseed meal, 36 percent protein, :
Minneapolis ...............................:Short ton: 66.10 56.10 51.65 54.50 50.40
Linseed meal, 34 percent protein, New York .sShort ton: 82.25 73.90 71.35 79.10 76.75
Peanut meal, 45 percent protein, f.o.b. :
Southeastern mills .....................Short ton: 62.50 55.90 47.25 48.30 52.80
Soybean meal, 44 percent protein, Chicago ..:Short ton: 66.70 57.10 64.40 62.50 58.10
Soybean meal, 44 percent protein, bulk,
Decatur .................. ..............:Short ton: 56.00 45.70 52.90 51.00 46.60

I/ This price allies to peanuts for edible uses. 2/ Bagged carlots, except soybean meal at Decatur,
which is bulk. 3 Original quotations adjusted to bagged-carlots basis.

Compiled from Oil, Paint, and Drug Reporter, Daily Market Record (Minneapolis), Wall Street Journal,
Chicago edition, reports of the Agricultural Marketing Service, and records of the Commodity Stabilization
Service.


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957








LIST OF TABLES
Table Title Page

1 Wholesale prices per pound for fats and oils at specified markets .................... 2
2 Soybeans: Supply and disposition, 1947-57 ........................................... 6
3 Soybeans: Yield, price and value of products, 1947-56 .............................. 8
4 Soybeans: Crushings and yields of oil and meal, 1950-56 ............................. 9
5 Soybean oil: Supply and disposition, 1947-56 ....................................... 11
6 Soybean oil: Utilization, 1947-56 ................................................. ... 11
7 Soybean oil: Supply, disposition and price, 1950-56 ................................. 14
8 Fats and oils: Estimated world production, 1954-58 ................................. 16
9 Fats, oils, and oilseeds: World indigenous exports. 1954-58 ......................... 16
10 Cottonseed and soybean oils: Exports under P. L. 480, 1953-56 ......................... 18
11 Cottonseed: Supply and disposition, 1947-57 ..................... ................. 21
12 Lard: Production factors, by months, 1946-56 ........................................ 24
13 Lard: Supply and disposition, 1950-56 .............................................. 25
14 Creamery butter: Supply and disposition, 1950-56 .................................... 28
15 Food fats and oils: Supply and disposition, 1951-57 ................................. 29
16 Estimated production of fats and oils from domestic materials ........................ 31
17 Domestic disappearance of fats and oils, by quarters ................................. 32
18 Calculation of domestic disappearance of food fats and oils ............... .......... 33
19 Flaxseed: Price to farmers, acreage, yield, and related data ........................ 38
20 Flaxseed and linseed oil: World export availabilities ............................... 41
21 Inedible tallow and greases: Supply and disposition, 1950-56 ........................ 43
22 Tung nuts: Supply, disposition, and price, 1939-56 ............. .................... 45
23 Tung oil: Supply and disposition, 1942-57 ............................. ............. 45
24 Castor beans: World output, exports, and U. S. imports, 1947-57 ..................... 48
25 Castor oil: Supply, disposition, and price, U. S., 1947-57 .......................... 48
26 Primary fats and oils: Domestic disappearance for food, 1948-56 ................ ... 51
27 End product fats and oils: Domestic disappearance for food, 1948-56 ................. 51
28 Oilseeds: Quantities processed by type of equipment, 1956-57 ....................... 57
29 Price support operations for oilseeds, 1947-57 ....................................... 65
30 Oilseed cakes and meals: Supply and distribution, U. S., 1953-57 .................... 66
31 Wholesale prices of fats, oils and oilseed meals, specified markets ................. 67
32 Fats and oils: Production and warehouse stocks ...................................... 68
33 Imports and exports of fats and oils ................................................ 69
34 Index numbers of wholesale prices of fats and oils ................................... 70
35 Farm and terminal market prices for fats and oils .................................... 70


- 71 -


FOS-187


NOVEMBER 1957




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08903 8649




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