The Fats and oils situation

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Material Information

Title:
The Fats and oils situation
Physical Description:
301 v. : ill. ; 26-28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
frequency varies

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Oil industries -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Oils and fats, Edible -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
FOS-1 (Mar. 1937) - FOS-301 (Oct. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-<Oct. 1977>; Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, <May 1978>-July 1980; Economics and Statistics Service, Oct. 1980.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board," Oct. 1977-Oct. 1980.
General Note:
Title from caption.
General Note:
Item 21-D.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502965
oclc - 01588232
notis - ACS2699
lccn - 46039840 //r82
issn - 0014-8865
sobekcm - AA00005305_00073
Classification:
lcc - HD9490.U5 A33
ddc - 380.1/41385/0973
System ID:
AA00005305:00081

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Fats and oils outlook & situation

Full Text


































































111 11111 11111 0 IC1111 110011


BEFORL 1935, 80YBeAN Dil WAS USED PRINCIPALLY IN PAINTS AND VARISHESL
In THE UNIrao Surres. ALTHOUGH THE quaWTITY uSED IN THIS FIELD HAS IN-
CREASED SIOMEWHAT WITH THE 8nARP INCREASE INr DDM~sTIC PRODUCTIONS THAT HAS
SINCE OCCURRED, SOYBEAN 01L IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN USED LARGELY IN FOOD
R~ODUCTS. IN 1939, FooD USEB ACCOunTED FDA MORe THAN 80 PERCENT OF THE
TOTAL FACTORY CONSUMPTION, DAIING UaES FOR LE~S THAN 10 PERCENT.


- ;I I




~d O~a~SI


:' U.S. DEPOSITORY


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

~Rc: An


it 16, 1940


:IN THIS ISauE:


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OurtoDK FOR DOMEaTIC DILBEED8
.
FaoTany consuupream or rars no oaks 19


FACTORY CONSUMPTION OP SOYBEAN OIL. BY CLASSES
OF PRODUCTS. UNITED STATES. 1931-39


1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939
uass om adBA4@~ g? Ulma harrd urument*l


11011~111~ lrYIYI




FOS-38


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Table 1.- Price per pound of speci~ied frats and oils, and oil-bearing; materials,
Ma-rch 1938 nnd 1339, and Jnr~aary-March 1940
Item : Mar. : 198
: 1,O50 : 1939 : Jan. : Feb. : Mar.1)
Fat s and oils: :'ContD Cont s Cent s Centsa Cent s
Butter, 92-score, Chicago ......................: 2?.3 23.7 30.8 29.0 28.0
Oloomargarino, dom. vng, Chicagoa ..............: 15.1 14.5 15.0 15.0 15,0
Lard, priuo steam, Chic go .....................: .8 6.5 6.0 6.1 5-8
Lard, refined, tubs, Chicago ...................: 10.0 7.5 6.8 6.7 6.5
Compounds(animal and veg.coo:ing~ fats),elic~ago 10.2 9.2 9.5 9.5 9.6
0Olo oil, extra, ticrees, Chicago ...........,... 8.6 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.1
0Olostearine, bb1s., IT. Y. .....................: 7.6 6.6 6.8 6.4 6. 3

Corn oil, crudlo, tranks, f.o.b. mills ...........: 7.7 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1
Corn oil, refined, bbls., 11. Y. ................: 10.2 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.8
Cottonscod oil, crude, tzn~ks,f.o.b.S.E. mills ..: 7.0 5.8 5.9 6.0 59
Cottonsood oil, p.s.y.,tantk cors, N. Y. ........: 8.2 ;.9 6.9 6.9 6.7
Peanut oil, cnrade, tank~ls, f.o.b. mills .........: 7.3 5.9 6.7 6.96.
Peanut oil, dom. refined, ob51s., U. Y. .........: 10.2 3.1 9.6 9.5 9.6
Soyocan oil,-ruin, tankr cars,nia.twcatemn ills .: 6.4 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.7
Soybean oil, rcuin-ec., liuruns, 2;. Y. .............: 9.2 7.5 8. 2 8-3 8.4

Babassu oil, tanks, B. Y. ......................: 6.7 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.2
Coconut oilcI~dlrudeT,takfrO."o.Pacific Coa~st 2} .: 6.6 5?.9
Coconut oil, odible, thanks, 17. Y. 2/ ...........: 9.1 7.4 7.8 7.4 7.4
Olive oil, edliblc, bbls. (druns), 11. Y. ........: 26.0 25.1 26.9 26.7 26.01
01ivre-oil foots, prine, druns, N, Y. ...........: 8.9 7.0 8.4 8.3 8.3
Pralm oil, cru~e, cocsls (l.rurns) U. Y. 2/ .......: 7.1 6.8 6.4 5.2 7.6
Rape oil, recfincd, bbla., N. Y. 31/ .............: 16.5 15.3 18.2 18.2 18.2
Soscume oil, ;efined, dirus, 17. Y. ..............: 10.4 9.1 11.8 11.6 14.7
Tenseed oil, crude., c'.rur~s, iT. Y. ...............: 8.4 8.3 12. 5 12.5 12.0

Tallow, inrdibtle, Chiici.go ......................: 5.0 3.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
Grease, A white, Chicr~o .......................: 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.6
Mocnhaden oil, crudeC, t..nks", fuoo'b. Blaltilnor. ...: 4.9 4.1 1;.8 4.7 4.6
Sardine oil, crucdo, t"nr-s, Paceific Co-rst .......: 6.2 4.1 5.0 4.9 5.0
Whale o il, rcfin ed, ble ached wrir.t er, drunci,,I.T. 4}~J.: 9.9 3.2 12. 5 12.5 12.5

Linsced oil, rnw, t nk c-.rs, !.:inncepolis. .......: 9.6 8.6 10.4 10.1 10.3
Linsed oil, ~row, c .rlots, bb1s., N. Y. ........ 9.8 8.9 10.8 10.4 10.7
Pcrilla oil, draus,, 17. Y. 3/ ...................: 151 1. 2. 45 2.
Oiticica oil, drur1s, I. Y. ...................: 11.3 9.8~ 20.5 20.2 19.8
Tcrng oil, drruns,) IH. Yi. .........................: 13.3 15.2 27.6 27.5 27.4
Custor oil, dchy ra;ted, drunc, carlots, ?7. Y. ..: --- --- 17.0 18.1 16.1
Caster oil, 210. 3, bbl3., I;. Yr. ................: 9.2 8.9 12.5 12.5 12.8
Cod-liver oil, led. U.S.P~pbbs. ,N.Y.(dol.por bbl.) 27.0 23.5 33.5 33.5 33.5
Cod oil, Neiwoundland, bble., I:. Y. ............: 6.8 4.0 9.6 9,6 9.0.i
7i l-boaringr ;Ito ricals::
Coprra, bage, f.o.L. Pilcific Coast ..............: 2.1i 1.S 2.0 1,8 1.71
Cottons:-ed, Dallle (601. per ton) ..............: 23823.4 30.2 29.6 28.2'
Plaxseed, 110. 1, 1:innco-opolis (por bu.) .........: 206.0 196;.0 215.0 214.0 208.0
Soybouns, 110. 2 Yellow, Chzica;;o (par Isa.) ......: 98.0 68.0 1-16.0 106.0 114.0
Coolpiled~ from. Oil, Po.i:.t and Drug Eo .orter, TIhe Tnational Provisioner, Ch~icago Daily
Trade Bulletini, I.Iinnonpolis Daily lbzrket Roecord, and reports of the Ag~ricultural
MarkertingE Service nad Bureau of Labor Statistics. If Proliminary. 2/ Includes
excise tax~ of' 3 cents beglinning Mayr 10, 1934. 3/ In\cludos excise tax of 4.5 cratv
beginning August 21, 1936. 4/ Includce excise tax~ of 3 cents beginning July 1,
1939.






FOS-38


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THE FAdTS9 ANWD 0 I L SI T U ATI 0 N'




The demand for dacmstic oilseeds in thes 1940-41 marketing season may be

slightly stronger than in the present season. Production in 1940, however,

probably will be con~siderablyr larger than in 1989.

While no great change in the average level of industrial and building

activity is now in prospect fcr 1940-41 compared with 1939-40, certain indica-

tions point to some imp~rovrement in the demand for oilseeds. The total pig crop

in 1940 is expected to be somewhat smaller than in 1939, which probably wsill

result in a reduction in lar-d output in the hog-marketing; year beginning rnext

October, and in somne strengthening in the demand for edible oils. Th~e supply

of feed grains rper animal on farms, moreover, may be slightly smaller in 1940-

41 than in 1939-40. A reduction in such~ surplies could tend to strengthen the

demandd for oilseed cake and nreal, and homce the demand for oilseeds.

According to farmrnsl' intentions, as repoarted Ma~rch 1,.thle aeroagog c to be

planted to saybouns grown alone for all purposes may be 18 peroont larger in

1940 than in 1939. The most pronounced increases in acreage are indicated for

Illinois,. lowa, Ohio, and Indi33 na, shoroC about 91 p~creent of the snybounrs

harvested as bouns we~re gathered last your. W~ith about the usual abandonment,

and with average yie~lds, soybean production in 19)40 mayr total 100-110) million

bushels companred wnth 87 million bushels in 1939, and 5 million bushels in 1924,

the first your for whlich production figures are availrabl3.

The indicrated acreage to be planted to flaxseed is 15 percent larger this

year than last, wsith rooord large acreages indicated for several States, in~clud-

ing M~innesota, California, lown~, Kansas, and Tozas. Flaxseed production in







FOS-38 4-

1940 may total about 23 million bushels compared with 20 million bushels in

1939 and an average of 11 million bushels for the previous 10 years.

The indicated peanut acreage for 1940 is 5 percent smaller than the

record moreage planted in 1"39. But yields last year were unusually low in

several important producing States, and it seems likely, assuming normal

weather conditions, th'n' peanut production will be somewhat larger this year

than last, though possibly not so large as in 1938, when unusually good yields

were obtained in several States.

Prices of flaxscod, cottonseed, peanuts, and soybeans have averaged 3 tt

35 percent higher in the current marketing season than a your earlier, and from

January through March this your were the h.ighst since 1937. Prices of most

fats and oils declined somewhat in March, but with the exception of lard,

greases, and boof f:ats continued to equal or oxcood those of carly 1939. Ex-

ports of lard since the ou~tbreak of wa-r in Europe have totaled only about 10

poroent more than in thei corresponding period a yparr ago, despite the relative-

ly large supplies and low pl;rice of lard in this country. Exports of soybeans,

on the other hand, totaling :.bout 11 million bushels, have boon over 4 times

as largo as a jrrer eSarlier.

REVIEW OF PECENT DEVELOPM~ENTLS

Prices of f~ata and oils deve~loo downvward trend

Prices of most fats and oils woro steady to lowerc in March than a month
earlier, and in. scvo-ral cases wero lower than a year ourlier.

The average price of: prime steam lard at Ch~icago, at 5.8 cents per
pound, waes 5 percent lowecr in March than in Februargy, and was 11 percent lower
than in M"arch 19139. Prices of tallow, greases, 01eo oil, and 01eostearine also
vrere lower in M~arch than a month and a year earlier. The price of cottonseed
oil in Mach was slightly lower than a month earlier, but was little changed
from a year earlior. Butter- prices declined slightly, but wero 18 percent
higher in March this year than last.






FOS-38


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Prices of several imported oils, including babassu, olive, palm, and
teaseed, declined 2 to 7 percent in M~archl, but continued higher than a year
earlier. On the other han~d, the price of sesame oil advanced sharply in Mlarch.

The rather general tendency for prices of food and soap fats to decline
in Bbarch apparently was brought about by tbor rBcent declines in industrial
activity and consumer incomes, wI~Eeaness in the export demand for edible fats,
and the macrked increase in lard production this yeasr compared with last.
Despite the relastive~ly low prices, consumption ored exp~ort~s of' lard so3 far this
year have lagged behind production, adth the result that cold storagG holdings
of lard on April 1, to~taling 269 million ponulds, woro more than double the
avorago holdings for thant dato and were the largest for all months in 25 years
of record,

As exceptions to the gocnoral dow~n trend, linsood rand soybean oil prices
advanced slightly in Iarch, orad I.ore considerably higher than in Ma~rch 1939.
Prices of per~illa oil also wr-ro higher than a month and a.l yer orlier. Al-
though prices of tunge and citicica oils declined slightly in Ndarch, they worLre
still at relntivoly high leverls, averaging: B( to 100 percent higher than a your
earlier. Strength in demand for paints and varnishes resulting largely from
increased residential building activity and automobile production this your
compaerd vjith last, together with diifficulti.s in scouring supplies of tung oil
from China, reduced production of perills oil in Mb~nchuria and Japan, and
advances in ocean transpor~tation costs for imported materials sinoo the out-
break of war in Europe, wore the factors mainly re~sponsible3 for the relatively
high prices of drying oils. Soybean oil, although used mostly in food prod-
ucts, has boon omploy~d to an increasing extent as a drying oil in recent
months, and prices of sayboan oil apparently have boon affooted by the rela-
tively high prices prevailing@ for the factor-drying oils.

Exports of lord increased moderately, soybeans
sharply over a year1 ago

The supply of lard in excess of usual domestic requirements for the
1939-40 season is eatir:lated to be about 600! million pounds, but exports, in-
cluding shipments to United States territories, for the season to date have run
at only a little evor half th~is ratec. W\ar in Europe apparently has had an ad-
verse effect on the export: demand for American lard, which has been reflected
chie-fly in reduced takings b.:. the United Kingdom, our principal foreign market.
The United Kingdom apparently is endecavoring to conserve dollar exchange by
securing necessary fats from count:-ies attached to sterling exchange, through
barter arrangements, and from its own rather large production of wn~halo oil.

Expor~ts of lard to the United Kingdom for the period fromi September 1939
to February 1940 totaled 59 million pounds, 24 percent loss than in the cor-
responding period a G~rT 0171107. H~wever, exports to Cuba and nearly all
other acunrtries normally taking Ar~crican lard, except Germany and Poland, show-
od substantial incriasos, with the result that total exports to all countries
for the 6-mionth period (not including shipments to United StatGs cteritoriGS)
amounted to 142 million pounds, 11 percent more than a your earlier. Exports
to Cuba, our second mcost important foreign market, havoc boon about 10 pecront






POS-38


--6 -s


larger this season than last, wh-ile,exports to several other countries, in-
cluding Belgium, Finlandi, Italy, Nretherlands, Sweden, Swsitzerland, Canada,
Mexico, Colomb~ia, Venezuela, and Ecuadnr, have been 2 to 28 tires as large.
The relatively large supplies and low prices of lard in the United States have
been important factors in stirmulatirg exports, although the dislocation of
normal trade relations resulting from the war. apparently also has tended to
stirmulat e snorts to some countries.

Total exports'of soyrbeans, in contrast to lard, have shown a striking
increase during the current marketing season. Such exports amounted to 10.9
million bushels for the 6 months from September through February compared with
2.6 million bushels in the corresponding period a your carlior. Tho Nother-
lands has boon the principal foreign buyor. PurchasGS by Canada, mostly for
transshipment to Europe, also havoc bcon relatively large.~ Donmark, Nrorway,
and the United K~ingdom have purchased some soybeans in this country, but the
qualntitics takcn by those countries have not boon large. V'ith a record crop
of about 87 million bushecls produced in this country in 1939 the supply of soy-~
bcans available for export has bacnr relatively large. This situation coin-
cided adith acn oc3an-trainportt cost differential resulting from the war which
has placed Amerier~n soybiauns in a favorable position in the European market in
competition w~ith Man~churian soyboarm.

Exports of soybomns from the United Statos during the 6-month period
beginning Scptomber 1939 :ore equivalent to about 100 million pounds of crudo
soybean oil and 262,000l~ short tons of soybean cak~e and moo.1. In addition, ap-
proximately 9 million pounds of sayboan oil in the form of oil and nearly
43s000 tons of ca!:e and meal wevcro exported during this period.

Exports of cotto:nsoo-d oil also have boon larger this season than last,
totaling about 14 m;:ililn pounds (orude basis) for the period from Septomber
1939 through Febru-r:: 1CI40 compared with 2 million pounds in the corresponding
period a you' c-rlie-r. Caneda, Sw~itzo~rland, Swredon, an~d the Philippino Island
have been the principaL l foreign taker~s. During the past your the United Statoo
has changed frsm a not importing to a not oxp~orting position for cottonsood
o~il. Imports fo7r the- Septomber-Februaryl~ period this season totaled only 8
million pounds (in tenms of crudo cil) compared writh 42 million pounds in the
corresponding poriod of the 1938-30 seaso~n.

SPR~IF~G OUTLOOK FOR DONSTIC OILSEEDjS

Prices of oils~cods higher this season than last

Prices receivod by farmers f-r catt.nsoed, soybeans, pounuts, and flax-
sood have avoragod higher so far in .the 1939-40 marketing season than a your
earlier, and, except for flujxsood, have bcon the highest since the 1936-37
scnson. The farm prico of flaxsood has avoragod 3 percent higher this season
than last, pricos of cottonsood 4 porcont higher, pounuts 6 porcont higher,
and saybouns 35 percent higher.






FOS-38


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Table 2.- Exp~orts of lord, soybeans, and cottonsood oil from the
United States by countries of destination, September-
Fobruary 1933-39 and 1939-40 1i

Lad Cott oniscod
Country to eincludine ncuitr:.1: Soybans 2/ ol3
which expcortod
: ,001, 000~ 1,000 1, 000 1, 000 1,0r00
: b. lb. bu, bu. 16 b.

United ~ingdom ..........: 77, 198 58,831 --- 28 7 8
Canada .........: 555 2,555 2,271 3,408 12 4,046~
Germany ...,..............: 60 -- ---- --
Poland and Djanzig .......: 195 0 ----- --
Bolgium ....,.............: 1,216 7,777 8 --- --- 440
Donmur-k ....,.............: --- --- 37 764-- --
Finl~and ,..,..............: 127 2,772 -- --- --
Italy ........,...........: 64 1,570 -- ---- -
Notherlands .............: 99 551 199 6,622-- --
Norwa~y ..................: 8 52 --- 57--- -
Sweden ..................: 180I 4, 966 --- --- --- 1,,545
Swvitzerland .............: --- 987 --- --- --- 2,849
Whlta:, Goze and C:prus ..: 3 1,534 -- ---- -
Cuba ....................: 27,354 30, 015 --- --- 152 4241
Dceminicaln Republic ......: 912 1 -- ------
Haiti ...................: 395 379 -------
Mexico ........,..........: 4,069 8,0'19 23 --- 48 116
Costa Rice ..............: 1,216 1,835 -- ---- -
Paname 4/....,...........: 956 1,261 --- --- 469 656
Colombia .,...,...........: 3,916 7,680 --- --- 3 612
Vonos~uala ...............: 3,307 6,935 --- --- 16 186
Ecuador ..,...,...........: 4152 2,0900 -
Philippinc Islands ......: 2 4 -- 1,342 2,05 8
Otherr coLUntries .........: 4,19~5 1,132 "8 53 96 719
Total, all
counztric s 5/ .....:128,072 1.41,529 2,697 10,'C13 2,125 13,659

Compile(d from o-ffi c ial rcoo7rdsr o.f t he Bure~aul lf Fero~iig n~d~ Dmesic Commerce.rce
ExporJts do not include shipments to~ non;c-tiguous territ-rio~s of the ni~rted
States.

1/ Preliminary.
Skmcrican soybouns yield 1:-16 porecr.t of their we~iGht in crude oil, depend-
ing on method of exprcssiorn, an~d about 80 percGP~t Of their Wvcight in hieh-
protoin cake and necl1.
3/Refinod and crudc. Rcfincd anrnverted to~ crudo basis by divi~ding by 0.93.
4/Including Panama Cana-l Z lc.
1j/ Total of unrrounded. numbers.





FOS-38


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Table 3.- Unweighited a:erage prices received byr farmers for flaxseed,
cottoniseed, peanuts, and say~beans, marke-ting year through Ilarch,i
1936-39i

marketingng :Flax~seed, price: Cot~tonseed~, :Fearuts, price:Soybeans, price
year :per bushel : pr~ice, perl tsln: per round :per bushel
:Dollars Dollars Cen~ts Dollars

1936-37 : 1.94 34,0? 3.8 1.32
1937-39 : 1.721.17 3.3 .87
1938-39 : 1.62 22.30 3.3 .68
1939-40 : 1.67 25.15 3.5 .92

Computed from reports of thle' dFgricutu ltual reti, orvce Period~s covered:
Flaxaced and cottc.nsced, July-Yar\DIch; peanuts, Septembar-SMarch; soybeans,
October-March,

"art of th-e disparity in the price gains is due to differences in
mnarketing seasons; prices for flaxrscd and cottolnsood aire aveiraged for the
mnonths Jucly-ll.arch, p:'a~nu!ts for Soptcmbesr-"Irrch, nrd saybea~rs for October-lNarch.
Frices of all oilroads rmore unlusually. low in ,'uly aind August 1939, but ad-
v-od fai:-1.v sh.rpl~y fron Septemberr 1989 to Jannery~-~ 1(940:, and have since boon
m-.ant~caine~d at cco~rclrtively hi.Gh levels. Inr :n~id-;FarUch thi~s yea)r, the avo~rago
price~ rrccived by farr.rz fo~r f'la::c~cd wa7s .1.T1 per burshll, 41 percent higher
t;.n in A~ugust aid 16 p--rcen.:t l.i;;ho:r thran in !..arch 10.st yer.:r The farm prico
of' cottolnsorcd in I-id-:,archi, at :.EE.3i rper ton, wa~s 65 pa~rcent higher than in
Aurgust and 17 ercrc ent~ hi helir ticel in F.:rch a.i: ycr a.rlirr. Ard.~ the price of
scyb~cans, -t 51.0:1 rer 'rvsel., ::-s upr 58 pe~rcon-t from a~ugust and! 38 poroont
fro~m L~arch last yea~r. P;c: those of mother oilsceds, :;nd i~n nid-r'arch- av1ragecd enl:, 6 er~icont higher than
in TMTarch anid August 1939.

Several f.=ctors v:03ro resp-..nsibl, for th.low pcr :icles of oilsoods in July
cund Augusl:.t 1939j. A ,ang: those won~r the. comrsrzrtivly, Ir.rge stocks of edible
f-ts -nd ;ils and of facdstuffs on h:.nd, a persidnctt upwa~rd trend in foreign
production of oil-bc.cring rmateiaS ls prcsp, cts far incr,ased domestic prod~c-
tion of lard, say'tours, flaxceed, and pea~nuts in the 1939-4,0 season, a gener-
ally we~ak do~stic dEma.nd situation, and weakdness in the export demand for lard
which in thE past fev.:ears has :met increasing Lcompeattitio abroad from foreign
-vegetabtle oils sand from whialo oil.

Following the! ouf'breal: of \-ar in Eur~ope in September, a number of chne
in the- price situa~tion roccurred, not all of which, howiever, mra~y be attributed
to the ver (1) VIiar-risk~ insu~rance and ociEan-lfraight rates were materially in-
ercrased, with~ the rssulte that prices for importe~d materials advancod and the
demand for diomestic fats, oils, and oilscods w~as improved. (2) The higher
costs f'or ocea~n chiprments tended to curtail exports of soybouns from Manchuria
to we~storn Currope, p~lacing the. Ame~rican? product in a favortable competitive
rposition~ in that me,.rl~et. (3) Dionestic donar~d for food fits wras strengthened by
the cha~rn riso in industris 1 activity and consunmer income thrat took placo dur-
ing the fall and...rly vcintier months. (4) The demand for oilsocd cake and moal






FY)8-38


- 9-


also was strengthened by thei rise in industrial activity, by increases in live-
stook numbers, and by shortagro of rangc feod resulting from drought in largo
arous of the Wajstern States. (5) The demand for domestic flaxsccd wa~s in-
provod by an inorrmso in building; activity, and by the rrcrko~d deterioration of
the flaxsood crop in Arg~antin:. and of the perilla sood crop in Ideanchuria, both
of which turned out to be unusually smai:ll, although fairly large crops had bcon
oxpoetod ourlior in the srasoni.(6 Dona~stic peanult production also turned
out to be lose than had boon cx-pected.

Soma~ improvement in done~nd for demostic oilsecds expected

If the var in Euroac is prolonged through the next cro~p-nrketing sca-
son, ocoun shipping costs probably will continue high, with the result tha~t
the demand for domactic frits and cils will be. supported, to somerL artent at
least, by the continuation of higher prices for incorted oils and oil-boaring
materials. Arorican saytboans moreover, ~nay continue to hold their prosonrt
favorable conpctitive position in Burropoun narkots. rOn the other hanid, sup-
plios of odible oils end oil-boaring na~toria~ls in other curplus-producing
countries probably will conrtin~uo largG, anrd, as a result of the blockade, proj-
dacers in foreign countries will be forced to sclk new markets for materials
formerly exported to~ Gornany. !r0 proniouniccd increase in exports of lord from
the United States is in prospect, particularly sinoc theo United Kingdon, our
grirmipal rarket, is rorcorted to ha~ve large rcsorve stocks of f:.ts on hand, is
actively engaged in w~al~ing opeorti-ns, anrd continues to import vog~ctabl c oils
and oil-bea~ring ncotorials in fir~i;ly largo quantitieLs, ch~iefly fron countries
attadhod to sterling exchange.

Aside from the effects of war, prices of domestic oilseeds in the 1940-
41 season will be influenced by the trends in industrial and buildingr activi-
ties. Industrial activity in this country increased very sharply during thee
last 4 months of 1939, but has since declined. A reversal of the current dow~~n-
ward movement is expected to occur th~is spring, but there are as yert no signs
pointing to a rapid recovery thercartor. There is nothing in thie present
situation, however, to indicate that the general level of industrial activity,
or of building activity, wiill be g~reatly dirffrent in 19r40-41 thazn in 1939-40.

Although no great change in industrial or building activity seems likely
for the forthcoming marketing season, there are certain indications that the
domestic demand for oilsoods may/~be slightly stronger than in the present sea-
son. Because of the current h~igh prices for foods in re~lation to pric~-s for
hogs, hog production in 1940 is Ixpcted to be somowhat smaller thanl in 1939.
This probably will result in some riductiorn in lard output in the hog-marketing
season which begins noxt October, and homce in some strenlgthrening in the demand
for cottonsocd, soybean, and peanut oils. The supply of food grains per animal
on farms, moreover, is expected to bc slightly sna~llzr in 1910-41 than in 1939-
40, if farmersr intentions with regerd to the~ plan~ting; of corn, oats, barely,
and grain sorghum, a~s roported Mlarch 1, Ercr born out, and if the growring
season ~this your is about averalIo. A reduction in such supplies would tend to
strengthen the demand for oilsee~d cakeL anld neal, anid hence the~ dem:Lnd for oJil-
soods.




FOS-38


- 10 -


The donacnd for domenstica~lly producedc 1l~axsod during the current sonson
has boon supported to =cam3 c:;ctont by the unusually poor yields and- low produc-
tion of flexscod in Artgentina and perilla. so~d in Msnchruria in 1939.I WAhilo
there arc as yet no dcr"Snite, ind-lrcutLi:ls -s to the probable foreign production
of thSCs Oilsoreds in 1940, it aCon27s lil:Cly. th:-..t both jyields and production will
be groatcr tlan in? 1939. Th~ latesti nvailable= 3ctinate~s indicate a viold of
only 5.8 buchcle of fl-xs-:cd per seeded acro in Arentina for 1939 compared
vrith 9,2 bus~hels, th-e :\voraga3 for ~the prcedingls 5 ya~r=. The acron~go sol-dod ii
Argon~tino. inr 1930 wa~s Inr~cr tha.n GI~orage, bult pro~dUCtjio totailod only about 44;
million bu~shals compa~red with a 19P34-3S :,orage of 66 million bushols. The
y~icd jf' prilla sood pelr hrrvested acro in I.Iar.churic. fors 1935 is reported at
472 pounds comp~ared withr a -yea~vr avrag of 703 p-ounds per acro. Production
of perilla scld. in Mlanchurir. ir. 1939 totale:d Crb-ut 160 milli-n pounds compared
wvith an sveragoe of 266 nillionl! pounds fo~r t~he preco~din 5 ycr.rs, according to
latest ;fficial repor'lts.

Incronssd prolducticn of sryboans and flax~ceed i~d~ic-.ted

On the7 basis o~f ir.tor.did. plzntings report-d byr f-rnors to the Agricul-
tural Macrketing~ Servic- Ljbout ?.arch 1, further norked increascls in the produe-
tion o~f say~bour.S e~d flaxs'Cd arer likely tr takez place inl the United States
thiis, yaor, assann~ilg about n~crnarl wea~ther coditior.s Pe~nnut production also
1-..y be in~creased, ow~n though the! intended rcercago is sm~aller tha2n the record
acro-.go planrted. lst y--rr, when adverso wo~rther ?rtc in the grlroing~ son~son ro-
su~lted in un~usu-lly le~:: crop yi-ldS in certair. States.

Demostic sty113n prcrduction jincrcased fr.-n 5 million bushcls in 1924 to
13 million bushlel in 1933. Sinco 1933, the rrate of incrc~.so has boon groatly;
accolera.ted. Approxirr,~toly: 8'; nillio~n b~ushcls trar: prrduce~d In 1939. If
Fpresent indicationss of ulnjting are bor~rne \ut, an~d if idds are about avorago,
sayb;an preduction nay. tetzl 100-110J millio-n b~ustclr, this ye r.

Accordingii to the F:arch 1 rop .rts, the, ncrlerge o; saybir.ns to be grov~m
alone~i for all p:urTos~s 11411 t-te.1l labt!t 10,610,0001 acrcs cimparod with.
9,023,0070 acros planted last you-r. This rcpresents can increase of 1,587,000
acros, o~r rabout 18 percent. The: r:est orcn-unced increases in aercage aro inds-
ccatd f:,r Illincis, lawsI OhiC, anrd Indianis, where ..bo-ut 91 porcont of the soy-
beians harv;sted as bours u:cr- t;thcre~d l:ost year. Indic-ation~s are that aLcronge
v4 11 be incrased rnodor-tily, inl certain other Snt-ts, nrtably Wisconsin,
Mich-igan,, Misouri, IB1inusata, IKartuckyl, Pi.r.n=;ylvrani I'._rth Carorlina, and
Iarnsa, Cn7 the other hand, nine-r doorcer.sc e ir. ssyblca acrearge are indicated
for rever~al of the South:rn Statesr.

Donce~tic productiron o;f flays.d i!- 193', to~tali:'S 20,330,000 bushols,
waTsG ,Iprixinatelyl 150? perconrt Fgreactr thusi in 1988p and rans thle 10.rgost since
1930. The indlicatesd acr-t:ago t: bc p~lan!ted in 1940 is 1: perrcenrt.1argor than in
1939. With the ulsual abrcrnd-r~innt, arndl Iith yrields Tablut equal to- the avorago
fo~r the past tyre seas~ns, flaxsccd! prodluction th-is yecar would total seaccrowh
i~n the vicinityI af 23 -ailliin bushels, 1.ktich would bei the largost since 1927.

The most n'rked in!CroaSCc in the in~dicalted acreago to be planted to
flaxscood this your are for M~innestat and South Dakotar, \ith nere nodorato in-
oreases irndicated for Tixas, Iowra, "Tcn3S Is California, and No:rth Daketa.





FOS-38


- 11 J


~Deereases in f~lexseed acreage are indicated for M~ontana, Idaho, and Washing~ton.
If thle Ma~rch 1 intentions are borne out, thle acreage planted to flaxseed this
year in several States, including Ninnecsota, California, iowa, KaL~nss, and
Texas, will be th-e largest in 22 years of record.

.i~thl norn.11 yie!.lds, p:*anut production in 1940! should be somewhat larger
than the 1,180 ral.lior.-rpounc; crop of 19,9, alt~rugh p'oesibly, rot so3 large as
the 1938 r .-rord croo; of 1,20(6 million pounaisr Perorrts by, firr.ers indicate that
about 2,'-,ilr,00 ?c~lro 01 pelanuLts ma, to p~lanterd. alone for all purpoces this
year, wh~ich~ wou~lld bc 5 percent leSS theLT the! acrllage. phlntedl- :I yealr ago. Largo-
ly as a result cf execsz;ive moistu~re late in the grcowingE 3se."on Ilat yea~r,
yields walr, uinusuallyr lov: in scveral of the. Sou.thema~trerrn pea::ut-crodiucing
States, inlcludi:ng Geoi~rgia, Floride:, Alabmarx, and P'issiasippi. Dry, vrcather in
Louisian:, Cl:1 her.D, and$ Taxas~ also reulto5d ir. poor rields in th;ose Sta.te~s.
Yields in~ VirSinial :ird N~orthi Ca~rolina,~ howecvor, 2 imLortan~t producingE States,
woro un~~uuolly ?.1 b'. P,:anut ylields vary widrly frojm season1~ tot c...non, chiefly
as a rocult cf ci-la1nge in- weather c~or.Sitices5. Henrec any~ indica.tion of the trrob-
a~blo output for 1940 at this tim~c is subject to a rsthu~r vddsi margin of .rror.

No:c rellicble ind~iies.tion of the: productionr of cottonsco-d fo~r 1!'40 is now~c
availanble;. Suich production wvill dopend on the quca~tity of cotton produced this
ycar. The fi1-3t off'ci 1 report on co~ttcai acriCyc in CUltivotionl uill be ro-
loc.sod by the~ CropT Repo~rting Bea~rd o: July 8.

F'ACTERYI CONIISUF~FTION O1F FA~TS KI-D! GILS BY' CLLCSSES
OF PROCDU:CTS, 19~38 AI.D 1939j

Drata fo~r 1EsS and 1959 anr facto~ry consumprtio~n of fats -n~d o~ils by~
classes o~f prodiucts, as rcport-d by the- Burcou of th-e Coinsus,1/ toge~ther with
the astima~ted ter-1 appencor~t disap arc2/ r- givlen in t'ois report ini con-
tinatin ?c~ilo sttisic, beginning~ 1F31, publick.cd i,: thea April 1939
issue of Tin: Fate, -d Cils Situfltion. Sjr-rilficer.;t chanlges ini cOnSumption dur-
ing 1939 vrcr~ -.z follows:

Factor: cconsumption;.r of co?;ttonscd sil in -1r8 m:.-- sma~.!llr tha~n in? 1938
for all classes o~f products ;xemrt s.116; a3d eccoir;g Ils. Totcl F;Ctoryr c7n-
sumpition i:: 1939 Iwas dmcr! n bout 15 percent, from~ th~e no .r-r~ccrd cc:1sum~ption in
1938. Dooreased domes-tic suppjlies ,irs 1-ainly r sponsibib le for the redulctions.

To~tal l::rd co:n3;unption; in: 193G 0.r-.;un-ted to. ?*bout 1,660! million poun~ds,
15 porcor.t railc; than:~ i? 19~38. The use~ of lard in mnuif-actur~d products usually
repr~sents Ices t!han 1 porccent of total cc::eunption. Foo~to~ry colnsumpFtio of
lord in 1909' .munteldl to 15,25S0,000 pounds, 95 purcont of wh~ich~ ne~s used in
food pra~oducts. Althou,)h practically inlSignificant: in relntio n t.- the factory
total, senc~ 50',000i -uni; s of lard weire rep~~r~orte a bein. used i, s~..-a in 1939,
This figure conpriers s -thh 1,000O pounds ini 1938, 9,000C pounds in 153G, 1,0100
pounds in !C1935, -.-.6 24,000.C pounds in 19:4, the frjert ,rar for vhichi the use of
lard in soup~ nas rr7orted.
1/Factory on.::in fFats and Oils by Clacuce of Poducts fo~r 1939, pro-
Timinaryr report (1 page~, multilithod), Wlraahing~ton, Matrch- 19, 1940. See also,
Animal Futs anld Vgetablo Oils, annual report, usually issu:-d in M~ay by' the
Bureau ofl the Consus.
!y Of. The Frits an<' Oils Situation, Fe'bruary- 15, 1940,




* 12 -


POS-38


Footory consumption of 0100 oil, 010st;ourinc, end edible tnllow in
food yroducts w~as ru~duced somrP*:.t in 1980.

Faetary c-ns~ump~tion of srayb an.m oil, t~tallir~g 70 mill~i!n pounds, was
about. 55 Fpe~rce 1larger than in? 1988, Ce.r.6 v.-us by far the0 larC:gst on! record. In-
creeco~d use of cer-ybor. (:1l wsS reported for all classes of products in 1939,
writh the~ mljo~r uli in r- ad products.

Th-: con-c~umytiot n rf ec:nut oil in f~....- Fro;du~ctsl shr'l-:od a markcd doclino
in 1939, 27though'r its u in, rloup inicreaQs-d Approxilrt,7ly ?Z' po~rrcont of t~co
total rnct:ryr consu-1pti., nf coinutr roil. i? 1939 wans 1-'~ ;!o marnufactuzro of
srap, compe-red with'r 62 pr~cnc~wt rf ithe totrla in 1?38,

Bob,:su of.1, pr vioucly used largel:; in food pr.ducts, in 1939 found its;
majcr olutlet in~ ..ap. P'ibb its quie~k-lathering pr7perties, bebassu oil com-
pot.es directly vf-1+h co3ccnut cjl and ps'b-l:1.crnl cil for this u~Co The consump-l
tionl of baba:ssu r=il in souap incer:0sud rrcma E nilli*,n poundo In 1F38 to 38
milionpons i 199,Thlis increna o elightily more -thn o~ffst red~uce~d util-
iz:ation if Inlmn-l:.ccol oil in1 soup.

Theo use3 of r:.1m-ke.~: rT:1 olil was5 Sharply~ reduced for all classess of prod-
ucts in 193 ", with <>.9 re ;st pronou~nced redu~cticnl recovering; in soPp. Factory
conrsu~mpti-rn rDi' palm-Lke>Eal~ oil, totiling; 11 million pounds, wos 80 percent less
in 1'13? thanl~ .in 1534, FRud wBs thr smallest- inl mny ye;::ars

Althrcurt~ fctch.1 consum-t~ion of ediblE oli.;r, oil rue reduced somewhat in
1933, consumpr~tion of ir.edibls clive oii;r~l, atd ci-aol fOOts, chliefly in soap,
wa~s increased.

Thes consu:.artion of tiaih oils in 1939 wasl incre~sed f~r practically all
classes of' yro-d.ctss volth U nS'l;~~ o~llrt r red co~ins occurring in rutilization i~n
soap and th~e dr ing industrioc.

The- consumptionn of 'inedible tal~low and-l- Ersos i.nt.the: manufactulre of
soap was ireir-?.sodi inl 1939.,

The conlsunrption of lin~Ead oi;l, p:rilla oi'l, cit'cic oil (not ceparate-

crc-.ced-r in 1LS.,C, mjinly i~n responocr- to imprs-.d co-~Tnond e-and t-jons.

The-. consunpxnt~ion of acictor cil1 in p:int~s mnd varni,!.es i~ 193'; was nearly
double that~ of 1003, rrs-tcir m,:ilc hn d-chyi~ratedl posrca=cs drying ch~aractor-
istics sim~ilar ir'. I...y resprctZ toI t~oIT 51 cI;tleiCa Oil '.nd~ tungP Oil. TheC use
of csstor o;il in mi. crllr*?-o~uz in-durtral products calso~ incr,;snd shwrliy in 1939.

The r.?;jor sh~ifts in utjli-:ation of fr.ts in the r:r~itc3 Statess during: 1939
a~pp[-r to hc-tc b_en: (1)j An Ir.ercured uc- of ~srd :.r.S e:-yberL oi~l in food
prorducts, ~, rich ut.3 I.nrEcl:. olff'sat, ba5~c71rl by'I 1 reducllt.ijor. In. the use of cot-
ton:.ced ci.1. LLnd :f cetin~.'. Iimported IfilrP folr r!ch pu~rp55ses; (2 a maL~rked oX-
par.sicn in? th~ ure of bo~th- dern~.. tic ?.d imported f:.ts nd oils (CXOCpt palm-
ke-rnrl c~il) ir. sono; -and (3) on inoroused use o~f oils for drying, purposes. The
ten-rd.ney fr.r lord uld saybrean oil tor djiSplacI: imp~rted oils it. food usos re-
sul"t;d chiufly free the- relativoly lazrgo demo~stio supp!lies and layv prices of
12d n ,-cyka~n cil, to~gther with ricing pric s for imported matoriale bra
about by, thec increase: i? oceOn1 shipping; costs wlhijch follow~rod the outbreak of
vrrar in E~uropo.r Improvena~nt in industrial c.nd building activities in 1939 com-
parod w~ith 1938 r:as largoly responsi~ble- for the incroP~sod consumption of fats
and oile in~ soup and for drying~ purposes.















































































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Item



Production:
Colored ..........
UnTTcolored. .................
Tetal 2 .................
Materials used:


Feb. .1339-40 1/

,~ 198 139 Dc. Jan. Fe'b.
:1,000i 1,0!'0 1,000 1,000 1,000
:poLLis r)ound~s pounds pounds pounds

*142 127 148~ 150 169


- 16 -


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Table 5.- 01leom~rEarrine: Protaction1 and materials used in manufacture, United
States, February 193" and 1939, De~cembter-February 1939-40


0100 0.1 ......,.............: 911 1,283 876118 1,337
01eontenrine .,............: 2481 228 236 265 261
Lard, neutral ..............: 14j 115 206 241 333
01eo stock ,.................: 72 172 79r 120 105
Total animl~n ....... .......: 1)} ,741 ,397 1J 2,0)b
Cottonieedi oil .............: 13729,412 8;,779 103,077 10,200
sortean~ oil ................: :,756 L,395 7.575 e.973 8,657
Peanu-t oil .................: 31194 134 166 153
Corln oil ...................: 41 -2 54 Sk4 P9
Vegetable L'un~ ..............: 1
Total. domestic vege~table .: 1"(,907- 1 ,03 18602 19,3;00 19,100
Coconut oil ................: 5,031 i ,295 1,972 2,051 1,841
Babassui oil *..,,.... 1.C~99 655 692 770
Palm-kernal oil ....,........: i25 Gk---- -
Total forein~ resitblle ..: JG 2,6;[__ __1_ _i) 2~,743 2, 11
Total fats and~ oils ......: 29, -2 22 3)k 20,6jO 2j,813 23,747


$,$k 4
1," I


,,22
i1,2'6


4.980
1,137


5,696
1,307


5,761
1,332


M~ilk .....................,:
Salt and other misceillaneous .:


Comriled fron Biureau of Inlte;rnal Re~ve;nu records and Intern al Rvenue Blletin.


2/ Total of uzaroundedl nur.bers.


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