The Fats and oils situation

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Material Information

Title:
The Fats and oils situation
Physical Description:
301 v. : ill. ; 26-28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
frequency varies

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Oil industries -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Oils and fats, Edible -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
FOS-1 (Mar. 1937) - FOS-301 (Oct. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-<Oct. 1977>; Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, <May 1978>-July 1980; Economics and Statistics Service, Oct. 1980.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board," Oct. 1977-Oct. 1980.
General Note:
Title from caption.
General Note:
Item 21-D.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502965
oclc - 01588232
notis - ACS2699
lccn - 46039840 //r82
issn - 0014-8865
sobekcm - AA00005305_00039
Classification:
lcc - HD9490.U5 A33
ddc - 380.1/41385/0973
System ID:
AA00005305:00039

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Succeeded by:
Fats and oils outlook & situation

Full Text











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!.& T U AT 1-ON

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTj ENT. OF AGRICULTURE


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IN THI s ISSUE:
* ". .. .- ... .



SWHOQLESALE PRICES OF FATS ANh dILS GROUPED ACCORDING
"- .TO USE. UN1TEO'SATES..1922-40 '
.* INDEX NUMBERS-' 124-29- 100)
S.ECE.NT .
S120 --


I ,





.:. .. .. .. .:: .
p .....



40 *. r **


otherloodlb



Bo Drying oils ...

80

40 Soap fats


2'.. 0
:Wt : .. 192 1924 1926 19428. 1930 1932 1934. 966 1938 1940
'1 U PEPa. TIN u ..a uICUL.TULM I. NI [Eg I'I' U IfU F'G P tLURAL COhOMICS
...,.:: .


S' A RECORD DOMESTIC OUTPUT AND THE LOSS OF EUROPEAN MARKETS
;.' BROUGHT ABOUT'SHARP DECLINES I W PRCTS'OF MOST FATS AND OILS,
PARTICULARLY LARD, kN-THE PAST TWO YEARS. NOTABLE EXCEPTiONS
S','' :' WERE THE DRYING OILS, PRICES OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY
Si,.', DIFFICULTIES IN OBTAINING TUNG OIL FROM CHINA AND PERILLA OIL
S -.''.'. r PROM-JAPA*. PRICES OF MOST FATS ANO OILS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
S. ..,..' IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVEMENT IN DOMESTIC
DEMAND CONDITIONS. BUTTER PRICES ALREADY HAVE RESPONDED TO
THIS FACTOR.


I


1


I




d 2


FO7-47


Table 1.- Price per pound of specified fats and oils,
December 1938 and 1939, and October-December 1940


Item


: December : 1u4o
: 1938 : 1939 : Oct. : Nov.:Deo.1/


:Cents Cents
Butter, 92-score, Chicago ........................: 27.4 29.5
Butter, 92-score, New Y',rk .....................: 28.3 30.2
Oleomargarine, dom. veg., Chicago ................: 14.8 15.0
Compounds (animal and veg. cooking fats), Chicago : 9.6 9.5
Lard, prime steam, tierces, Chicago ............: 6.7 6.2
Lard, refined, cartons, Chicago 2/ ...............: 7.9 7.1
Oleo oil, extra, tierces, Chicago ................: 8.2 7.4
Oleostearine, bbls., N Y. .....................: 6.9 7.0
Tallow, edible, Chicago .........................: 6.1 5.7


Corn oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. mills .............: 6.4
Corn oil, refined, bbl., N. Y. ..................: 9.3
Cottonseed oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. S. E. mills .: 6.4
Cottonseed oil, p.s.y., tank cars, N. Y. .........: 7.4
Peanut oil, crude, taren:, f.o.b. mills ...........: 6.5
Peanut oil, dom. refined, bbl., N. Y. ...........: 10.1
Soybean oil, crude, tank cars, midwestern mills ..: 5.1
Soybean oil, refined, drums, !N. Y. ...............: 7.9

Babassu oil, tanks, N. Y. ........................ 6.1
Coconut oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. Pacific Coast 3/: 5.8
Coconut oil, edible, tanks, N.. Y ...............: 7.3
Olive oil, edible, drums, N. Y. ..................: 25.1
Olive-oil foots, prime, drums, N. Y. ............: 7.2
Olive oil, inedible, drums, N. Y. ...............: 12.3
Palm oil, Niger, crude, drums, N. Y. 3/ ..........: 6.7
Palm oil, Sumatra, bulk, H. Y. 3/ ................: 5.7
Rape oil, refined, bbl., N. Y. .................:4/10.8
Rape oil, blown, bbl., (drums), I. Y. ............: 14.2
Sesame oil, refined, drums, N. Y. ................: 10.5
Teaseed oil, crude, drums, N. Y. .................: 8.4


Tallow, inedible, Chicago ........................:
Grease, A white, Chicago .......................:
Menhaden oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. Baltimore .....:
Sardine oil, crude, tanks, Pacific Coast ........:
Whale oil, refined, bleached winter, drums, N. Y. :


5.1
5.3
4.1
4.1
8.2


Linseed oil, raw, tank cars, Minneapolis .........: 8.3
Linseed oil, raw, drums, carlots, N. Y. ..........: 8.6
Perilla oil, drums, N. Y ........................:4/ 9.8
Oiticica oil, drums, N. Y. .......................: 11.2
Tung oil, drums, N. Y. ..........................: 15.0


Castor oil, dehydrated, drums, carlots, N. Y. ....:
Castor oil, No. 3 bbl., N. Y. ..... .........
Cod-liver oil, med. U.S.P. bbl.,I-.Y.dol.per bbl.):
Cod oil, Newfoundland, bbl., N. Y. ........ .:


9.2
26.5
4.7


5.9
8.6
5.9
6.9
6.6
10.1
5.1
8.0
6.6
6.4
7.9
27.7
8.7
13.7
8.0
---
4/13.7
17.2
12.0
12.5


5.3
5.4
4.3
4.2
9.5


9.9
10.3
4/15.4
20.4
26.5
16.0
12.0
33.5
9.6


Cents
29.6
30.4
14.5
8.4
4.7
6.2
7.0
6.1
4.4

5.1
7.7
4.4
5.4
4.5
8.0
3.9
6.9

5.8
5.4
6.8
38.8
9.5
25.3
6.5
5.2
14.8
17.5
----
15.6

3.6
3.7


9.5

7.5
8.4
18.1
19.0
26.9
13.1
9.8
72.5
8.0


Cents
532.4
33.1
14.5
8.2
4.7
6.4
7.0
6.2
4.8

5.3
7,8
4.6
5.7
4.8
7.5
4.3
7.3

5.9
5.5
6.8
41.3
10.3
29.9
6.6
5.0
13.6
17.5

16.9

4.3
4.3
3.8
5.1
9.5

7.7
8.7
18.0
19,0
26.9

13.1
9.8
72.5
8.0


Compiled from Oil, Paint, and Drug Reporter, The National Provisioner, and reports of
the Agricultural Marketing Service and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices q ed in-
clude excise taxes and duties where applicable. I reljminary. 2/Reportedn ues
prior to July 1940. 3/ Three-cent procqasing tax added to price as originally quoted.
4/ Revised.
Index numbers of prices of fats and oils, prices of oilseeds, and prices of ot~eske
meal are given elsewhere in this report.


____


34.2
34.8
14.5
8.4
4.4
6.2
7.1
6.2
4.6

5.9
8.5
4.8
5.9
4.9
7.7
4.5
7.7

5.8
5.5
6.8
43.3
10.4
31.7
6.6
5.0
13.3
17.5

17.5

4.2
4.1
4.0
5.3
9.5

7.9
8.8
18.0
19.0
26.9
13.1
9.8
72.5
8.0


.& m










THE FATS AND OILS 8 ITUAT ION
-----------------------------------------------------------------

SSummary

Prices of most fats and oils are expected to rise moderately in 1941

siiita. possibly more in 1942. The principal factor bringing about this rise will

Tbe iSprovement in industrial activity and in consumer incomes, resulting in

g" p from increased defense expenditures, particularly in the second half of

V4rI. Lard; tallow, and grease prices are likely to advance relatively more

prices of other fats, because of prospective changes in the domestic sup-

pgly situation. Total supplies of domestically-produced fats are not expected

I;" te"ochange greatly in the next 2 years.

With reduced hog marketing, lard and grease production will be sub-

', fstiially smaller in 1941 than in 1940. The pig crop in 1940 was estimated

to a"Be- 10 percent smaller than in 1939, and, as a result of prevailing low hog

Prices in relation to corn prices, the pig crop probably will be further re-

duced this year. Increased production of vegetable and marine oils, however,

is likely t'o offset most of the decrease in lard and grease output.

Prices of fats, oils, and oilseeds showed little change from November

to December. For 1940 as a whole, the general level of fats-and-oils prices

Swas 5 percent higher than in 1939, but was 36 percent below the 1924-29 aver-

:age-. Prices of linseed oil, butter, marine oils, and many of the imported oils

v were moderately to sharply higher in 1940 than in 1939, reflecting improved

> t ,-.
domestic demand conditions and difficulties in obtaining supplies of oils from

[.. Europe and China. On the other hand, prices of lard, tallow, greases, most

j.C do*astic vegetable oils, and oils imported from the Philippines and the East

I t s. declined, to the lowest levels in 6 or 7 years. The large domestic




I ...; : ... ...









output of fats and oils in 1940 and the closing of many European markets to

world trade were the factors primarily responsible for the downward movement

in prices for these items.

January 14, 1941

REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Prices of fats, oils, oilseeds little
changed in December

Changes in prices of fats and oils from November to December were
generally moderate. The price of corn oil advanced about 10 percent, possibly
as a result of the growing tightness in the supply situation for olive oil.
Butter prices continued to advance, in part seasonally, gaining 5 percent for
the month. Prices of olive, teaseed, soybean, cottonseed, peanut, linseed,
menhaden, and sardine oils also advanced moderately. On the other hand, -
prices of lard, tallow, and greases declined 3-6 percent, apparently as a re-
sult of the unusually large volume of.production for those fats in recent
months.

The average price of prime steam lard (in tierces) at Chicago in
December, at 4.44 cents per pound, was the lowest since March 1933.. Prices
of inedible tallow and greases were about 1 cent higher than in August 1940,
but were 20-25 percent below those for December 1939. Prices of other do-
mestic fats and oils except corn oil, butter, and sardine oil also were
substantially lower than a year earlier.

Among the imported oils, prices of babassu, castor, coconut, cod, palm,
and oiticica shared the depressed status of the majority of the domestic items.
But prices of cod-liver, olive, teaseed, and perilla oils were considerably
higher in December than a year earlier, reflecting difficulties in securing
foreign shipments. The price of tung oil also was at a high level, although
not greatly different from the price prevailing in December 1939.

Prices of domestic oilseeds showed little change from November to
December. But the average farm price of cottonseed in mid-December was 3 per-
cent lower than a year earlier, peanuts vere 6 percent lower, soybeans 16 per-
cent, and flaxseed 22 percent. A record production of fats and oils from .do-
mestic materials, the loss of important export outlets for lard, oleo oil,
and soybeans, and an unusually large hemisphere surplus of flaxseed were the
factors primarily responsible for the low prices for oilseeds, as well as for
most domestic fats and oils in 1940.

Reduction in lard output indicated r
by pig crop report

The downswing in hog production which began in the spring of 1940 con-
tinued through the fall and Will continue at least through the spring season


FOS-47


- 4 -






POS-47


of 1941, according to the December pig crop report. The spring pig crop of
1940 was estimated to have been 9 percent smaller than that of 1939, while the
fall pig crop showed a reduction of 12.5 percent. The combined pig crop in
1940 was 10 percent smaller than in 1939. The indicated number of sows to
farrow in the spring season of 1941 is 14 percent below the number farrowed
in the spring of 1940, and 20 percent below the number farrowed in the spring
of 1939.

Low-hog prices in relation to corn prices during the past year and a
half have been mainly responsible for reductions in the pig crops. The hog-
corn price.ratio is still unfavorable to hog production. But with a material
decrease in hog slaughter in prospect for the next few months, hog prices are
expected to rise in relation to corn prices, and the current decline in hog
productions likely to be halted by next fall or by spring 1942.

Despite the 9-percent reduction in the spring pig crop last year,
Federally inspected hog slaughter in the first 3 months (October-December) of
the current hog-marketing year was 21 percent larger than in the correspond-
ing period of 1939, and was the largest for the period on record. Many
spring pigs that ordinarily would have been marketed from January to April
apparently were marketed early in the season. It is expected that hog market-
ings throughout 1941 will be substantially smaller than in 1939. Lard produc-
tion also will be substantially reduced.

The ,production of lard under Federal inspection, including rendered pork
fat, in the, first 11 months of 1940 totaled 1,345 million pounds, 22 percent
more than a. year earlier. This was the largest production for the 11-month
period since 1933. Present indications are that total lard production in 1941
will be 10-15 percent smaller than in 1940; production may show some further
decline in 1942.

Peanut and flaxseed estimates
revised upward

Peanut production in 1940, as indicated by the December 1 crop report,
totaled 1,612 million pounds compared with the 1,574 million pounds indicated
a month earlier, and a production of 1,180 million pounds in 1939. The 1940
crop was 37. percent larger than that of a year earlier, and was by far the
largest ever produced in this country. As requirements for peanuts for clean-
ing and shelling, and for farm and local use, probably will not total more
than 1,100-1,150 million pounds, the quantity of farmers' stock peanuts avail-
able for crushing from the 1940 crop is likely to exceed 450 million pounds
and may exceed 500 million pounds. The greatest use by domestic oil mills
previously was in the 1938-39 season, when 260 million pounds of farmers' stock
peanuts were crushed. Purchases of 1940 farmers' stock peanuts by cooperatives
operating under the diversion program, to early January this year, totaled 741
million pounds, of which 283 million pounds had already been diverted to crush-
ing mills.

The flaxseed crop in 1940 amounted to 31.1 million bushels, nearly 11
million bushels more than in 1939, and 20 million bushels in excess of the
average production for the previous 10 years. The United States has been on a








net importing basis for. flaxseed for- over 30 years. Imports in recent years,
mostly from Argentina and Uruguay, have averaged about 15 million bushels
annually. With the large supply now available from domestic sources, imports
in the current market year probably will not total more than a third of
the usual amount, even though domestic cnmshings may be somewhat larger this
season than la3t. (Table 2.)

According to the January 1 crop report, the acreage of flaxseed seeded
for harvest in 1941 is estimated at 213,0n0 acres in California compared with
140,000 acres sown for harvest in that State in 1940, and 15,000 acres in
Arizona compared v.ith 13,OC0 acres last year. The indicated increase in
California is 52 percent and in Arizona 15 percent. Production in these 2
States, mostly on irri-t ?d land, has shown a sharp upward trend in recent
years, and in 1940 acc.,u'nted for nearly 10 percent of the near-record United
States total production.

No reliable indications are now available as to the acreage to be seed-
ed to flaxseed in other States this year. It is possible that total United
States acreage, vhich has been expiaded cr',:'.crably in the past 2 years, may
be increazcd further in 1941. Tit:-h L-'. g ood as those experienced in
1940, it is concei.-able that total ;':- .-i.r in 1341 mirht exceed domestic
requirements for t:.e pa:it and v-.rnr.s]j. iau u-y, and for seeding. Such an oc-
currence probably :coul3 result in a dr~seic decline in flcxseed prices in this
country, particularly if it becarr necessary to seek an cutlet for flaxseed
abroad in cojnetition rith Argentin.? and Indian seed. With a tariff of 65
cents a bus'uel on imports of flaxs .d, and v.ith ou'ecn transportation costs
also supporting prices in this country, the price of I0o. 1 flaxseed at
Minneapolis for the past 10 years has averaged 69 cents a bushel higher than
a comparable grade of flaxseed at Buenos I.ires, if the United States should
become a nat exmp--ter of flaxseed, much of this price differential would dis-
appear. ilorecver, world prices of floxseed wcrld te lowered by the increase
in world supplies resulting from increased output in this country.

With a record peanut crop in 1940, a;i increased (though still below
average) crop of cottonseed, and a reduction in exports for soybeans which
will nearly offset the reduction in the soybean crop, total production of
edible oils from domestic oilseeds in the 1940-41 season is likely to be 100-
200 million pounds larger than in 1939-40. The decrease in lard output,
however, is expected to be at least 100 million pounds in excess of this
amount.


FOS-47


- 6 -






-FOS-47 7 -

Table 2.- Supply, net trade.-and drushings of domestic oilseeds, and oil
produced, United States, average 1929-38, annual 1939 and 1940 1/
(Net exports are indicated by a minus sign)


Carry-
over 3/


:Product


:1,000 tons 1,000't


Cottonseed 2/
: :Iet imports: : Crude
ion: Total or :Crushings : oil
Supply :net exports: :produced.
ons 1,000 tons 1,000 tons 1,000 tons Mil. lb.


..Av. 1929
1939
194C


Av..


-38 : 135-
S 121
40
*4/ : 40

*: Mil. lb.


1929-38
1939
1940 4/


Av. 1929-38
1939
1940 4/


Av. 1929-38
1939
1940 4/


* 6/
S 27
: 76

:1f,00 bu.

220
965
393


2,929
2,296
3,911


6,025
5,260
5,645

Mil. lb.

1,035
1,180
1,612


6,158 8
5,381 ---
5,685
Peanu ts5/


Mil. lb.'.

6/
1,206
1.688
Soybeans


1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

27,318 27,538
91,272 92,237
79.837 80,230
Flaxseed 8/


10,846
20,152
31,127


13,775
22,448
35,038


4,650
4,151


Mil. lb. Mil. lb.

2 97
8 73

7/


1,000 bu.

- 1,369
-10,947


15,985
13,212


1,446
1,325


Mil. lb.

43
33


1,000 bu. I.i lb.


14,667
57,072


25,568
30,078


131
537


484
579


Compiled as follows: aFrry-over: Cottonseed and soybeans, Bureau of the
Census; peanuts and flaxseed, Agricultural Marketing Service. Production:
Agricultural Marketing Service. Ilet trade: Bureau of Foreign and Domestic
Commerce. Crushings and oil produced: Bureau of the Census, except peanuts
1934-39, Agricultural Marketing Service.
1/ Production data for 1959 and 1940 revised on basis of December 1 (1940)
Crop Report. 2/ Year beginning August. / Cottonseed: dill stocks. Pea-
nuts, farmers' stock: Total mill and warehouse stocks September 1, excluding
stocks held by firms handling less than 30,000 pounds of peanuts yearly. Soy-
beans: Processors', importers', and exporters' stocks in mills and warehouses.
Flaxseed: Farm, commercial, and factory stocks. 4/ Preliminary. _/ Net im-
-ports, year beginning July. Crushings, year beginning October. /J Not avail-
able. / Year beginning October. 8/ Year beginning July.

Large flexseed surplus in Argentina;
Manchurian perilla supply small

Flaxseed production in Argentina from the 1940-41 crop has been offi-
cially indicated to be about 65,349,000 bushels. This compares with the
final estimate for the 1939-40 crop of 39,935,000 bushels and the 10-year
(1929-38) average of 67,349,000 bushels. There will be a large surplus stock


Crop year






FOS-47 8-

of flaxseed in Argentina this year, as the usual export movement to the
United States and to Europe probably will be materially reduced because
of the large crop in this country in 1940 and the present blockade of im-
portant European markets.

The surly siturlt.on for perilla seed is the reverse of that for
flaxseed. Thr IMnzhuri- perilla crop in 1939 mounted only to 143 million
pounds compared wjth an avcr3ge for the previous 5 years of 266 million
pounds. The first official estimate for 1940 places the crop for thot year
at 104 million pounds. According to a. radio report received by the Office of
Foreign Agrizultural Rflations, trade circles in Daircn believe that only
about 10 million pounds of perilla oil will be aviilfble for export from
Manchuria to the United Strats "jid elsewhere in 1941. Additional shipments
may be made from Japan, where, ?lanchuri.n seed ilso is processed, but such
shipments are likely to b- small. Imports of perilla oil into the United
States from Manchuria and Jpanj in the 5 ycars 1935-39 averaged more th-an 60
million pounds annually. Imports dropped sh-.rply in 1940, -nd seem likely
to continue small in 1941. Perilln oil is superior to linseed oil in drying
properties and finds po.rticular usLfuln~e: in mixtures .vith semi-drying oils,
such as soybean oil, in the paint n; -i r-ish industry.

Erratum

It was reported in th- Dr-ccmbr issur of Th._ Fr.ts and Oils Situation
th3t 10 million pounds of cottons.a-dd oil shcrtning had been nurchascd by
the Surplus Marketing Aitinistr.ticn in Iov.mbcr. This was in error. Cer-
tain bids were accepted Lut no corilitiment to purchase J-s made.

PRICES OF FATS AND DILS EHOW MI:CED TETITDS I 1940

The -verage level of uno les-le prices of f-ts -nd oils in 1940 w-s
about 5 percent hiher than in 1939 aind 45 pLrcent high..r thPan in 1932, but
was 36 percent below the 1924-29 aver.ge.l. In other words, prices, though
moderately nigh..r than a year r-.rlier, were still _t : r-.lativly low level.

The advance in th-e genor l price lIEvl for f:ts -ntd oils in 1940 was
largely the result of g.ins of 4-2"0 p.rccnt for lins.-ed oil, butter, fish
and whila oils, and of 20-60 percent for most imported oils, including rape,
olive, tung, oiticica, cistor, tens-eed, sesame, pLrill., .nd cod oils. The
price of cod-liver oil w-.s 108 pe.rc-.:nt higher th-n in 1929.

Not all f1ts adv-nced in price in 1940. Prices of corn oil, cotton-
seed oil', and p *nut oil ware -bout 5 pcrs.nt lowrr thin n year _.irlier,
babassu oil was down 6 percent, coconut oil 8 percent, olco oil .nd oleo
stenrine 11-12 pircEnt, lard and -dible t.'llow 16 percent, .'nd inedible
tallow and greases about 20 percent. Prices of these fits -nd oils were at
the lowest levels since 1930 or 19A4.

The price gains for linseed oil and butt.-r >pp .ar to h- v been largely
in response to improvement in dom-stic d-m nd conditions. ThL rise in prices
of marine oils, on th7 other h'.nd, swrms to hive been due in greater part to
reductions in supply, p:rticul.,rly of the dom:stic.ally-produccd sardine and
whale oils, .:d of cod and cod-liver oils, imports of whichh h-ve been severely






FOB-47 -9'-

curtailed as a result of w.ar in Europe. Imports of several other oils,
such as-olive, tung, rape, sesame, and.tcaseed, also h.ve bcen influenced
by war conditions; rising prices for these oils have b..en reflected in
prices of closely competitive products, p-rticularly of oiticica nmd
castor oils, which are being used as substitutes for tung oil.

The sharp downtrend in lard, tallow, =nd grcc.se prices in the past
2 years, -nd the lesser decline in prices of rel..ted domestic products,
have been largely the result.of increased.domestic production coupled with
the decrease in exports. .The.low level of prices for coconut, bebassu, and
.palm oils in recent months.has been occasioned chiefly by the closing of
continental European markets to imports of these oils from surplus-producing
areas.

Improvement in industrial activity and in consumer incomesin the
United States in 1941 and 1942, resulting in large p-irt from increased de-
fense expenditures, will be an important factor tending to strengthen the
demand and prices for domestic f-ats and oils in the next 2 yeors. No pro-
nounced change in the tot-.l supply of domestically produced f-ts is in
prospect, although lard' -nd grease production is expected to decrease fair-
ly sharply. Prices of most domestic fat-s -and oils are likely to advance
in coming months, particularly in the second half of 1941 when industrial
activity and employment are expected to show rather sharp increases. Lard,
tallow, and grease prices perhaps will show the greatest relative gains.
The general advance, however, probably will be moderate unless foreign ship-
ping routes are further curtailed or European markets are reopened to world
trade, since unusually large supplies of certain vegetable oils and oil bear-
ing materials are readily available in foreign areas for shipment to the
United States. The effect of improvement in domestic demand for fats will be
felt not only in this country, but to some extent also in such surplus-pro-
ducing areas as the Philippines, the East Indir-s, and South America.
























*.




0os-47


Table 3.- Price per pound of specified fats and oils,
annual averages, 1936-40
Item 936b 1937 1938 ;1939 191 -
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Butter, 92-score, Chicago .........................: 32.1 33.2 27.1 25.4 28.7
Butter, 92-scoro, fiew York ........................: 33.0 34.4 28.0 26.0 29.5
Oleomargarine, dom. veg., Chicago .................: 15.1 15.6 15.5 14.7 14.8
Compounds (animal and veg. cooking fats), Chicago .: 12.2 12.4 10.2 9.3 9.1
Lard, prime steam, tierces, Chicago ...............: 11.3 11.3 .O0 6.4 5.4
Lard, refined, cartons, Chicago 2/ ................: 12.2 12.7 9.2 7.5 6.4
Oleo oil, extra, tierces, Chicago .................: 10.4 12.4 8.8 8.0 7.1
Oleostcarine, bbl., N. Y. .........................: 9.0 9.7 7.2 6.8 6.0
Tallow, edible, Chicago ...........................: 7.8 8.6 6.1 5.5 4.6

Corn oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. mills ..............: 8.9 8.4 7.1 5-9 5.7
Corn oil, refined, bbl., N. Y. .....................: 12.0 11.5 9.8 8.8 8.3
Cottonseed oil, crude, trnks, f.o.b. S. E. mills ..: s.6 8.0 6.7 5.6 5-3
Cottonseed, oil, p.s.y. tank cars, U. Y. ...........: 9. 9.2 7.9 6.6 6.2
Peanut oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. mills ............: .g8 s.6 6.9 5.9 5-7
Peanut oil, dom. refinci, bbl., U. Y. .............: 12.5 12.1 10.2 9.4 8.8
Soybean oil, cruda, tank cars, midwe-tern mill, ...: 7.5 8.1 5.6 4.8 4.8
Soybean oil, refined, drums, N. Y. ................: 9.8 10.9 8.4 7.6 7.6


Eabassu oil, taiks, I. Y. .........................:
Coconut oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. Pacific Coast 7/ :
Coconut oil, edible, t&nuKs, I1. Y. ................:
Olive oil, edible, drir.s, II. Y. ...................:
Olive-oil foots, rrime, drums, I. Y. ..............:
Olive oil, inedible, I. 7. ........................:
Palm oil, Niger, crude, irums, N. Y. f/ ...........:
Palm oil, Sumatra, bulk, N. Y. / ................:
Rape oil, refined, bbl., UI. j/ ...............
Rape oil, blown, bbl., II. Y. ......................:
Sesame oil, refined, drums, ;. Y. / ...............
Teaseed oil, crude, drir s, II. Y. ..................:

Tallow, inedible, Chicago ..........................:
Grease, A white, Chic-go ..........................:
Menhaden oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. Faltimore ......:
Sardine oil, crude, t-rns, Pacific Coast ..........:
Whale oil, refined, bleached winter, drums, I. Y. .:

Linseed oil, raw, tank cars, Minneapolis ..........:
Linseed oil, raw, drums, carlots, 'I. Y. ...........:
Perilla oil, drums, U. Y. 4/ ..................... :
Oiticica oil, drums, II. Y. .........................
Tung oil, drums, I. Y. .............................:


8.0
10.4
24.1
8.7
13.5
7.,
7.6
8.3
10.2
13.5
10.6

5.8
6.3
14.3
4.
7.8

9.5
9.8
8.8
12.6
16.1


11.5
31.9
11.1
19.4
8.6
8.0
12.3
14..:
11.9
10* 8

7.5
8.0
5.2
6.n
10.3

10.3
IC. 8
12.1
12.9
15.7


6.4
6.1
s.4
26.0
8.0
12.9
6.g

11.0
14.4
10.4
7.8

5.0
5.3
4.4
4.7
9.1

8.7
9.1
1C.4
11.1
13.5


6.4
6.1
7.6
26.3
7.8
12.9
7.0
5.7
11.6
15.0
9.7
10.5

5.1
5.2
4.0
4.1
6/8.5

8.8
9.3
11.7
15.0
21.0


6.0
5.6
7.0
32.0
9.0
19.6
7.2
5.4
14.2
17.4
14.8
13.5

4.1
4.2
4.2
4.9
9.5

9.0
9.7
18.7
18.9
26.3


Castor oil, dehydrated, drums, carlots, U. Y ......: --- --- -- -- 15.6
Castor oil, No. 3, bbl., N. Y. ....................: 10.2 10.2 9.2 9.3 11.7
Cod-liver oil, med. U.S.P. bbl., N.Y.(.dol. per bbl.) 25.3 26.7 26.8 28.0 58.3
Cod oil, Newfoundland, bbl., N. Y. ................: 5.6 6.9 6.0 5.3 8..
Compiled from Oil, Paint, and Drug Renorter, The National Provisioner, a.nd reports
of the Agricultural Marketing Service and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices in-
clude excise taxes and duties where applicable. 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Re-ortcd in
tybs prior to Jly 194. 3 Three-cet processing. tax added to prTce as orL-
1y q5ltd. Rovised, 3-39. 5/ Revised 19i6; revision for 1934, 9 935,
13.5". "-Bjevlsed.


- 10 a.





- 11 -
Table 4.- Wholesale prices of fats and oils: Index numbers,
S: October-December 1940, annual 1938-40
(1924-29 = 100)
SG p 19040 __: Annual average
:. ....... _____ Oct. Nov. : Dec. :.1938 : 1939 : 1940

.ia .domestic fats and oils I/ ..: 82 88 .91 90 81 83
Mt domestic fats and oils .....: 58 62 64 64 57 59


ZAjB ts and oils (27 items) .....: 63 68 .70
I2ped by origin :
i. i nal fats ..................: 60 66 69
line animal oils .... .......: 86 86 .. 37
": Vegetable oils, domestic .....: 56 59 61
L: Vegetable .oils, foreign ......: 8' 91 92
Gitouped by use- :
Batter, unadjusted ...........: 67 74 78
r :B hitter, adjusted 2/ .......... 65 63 71
rd ........................ 35 3 34
I.. -ood fats, other .............: 62 65 68.
;Soap fats ....................: 57 62 61.
I .....Drying oils ..................: 86 s8 ._.
S miscellaneous oils ...........: 86 4 84
/1910-14 = 100. 2/ Acdjusted for typical seasonal variation.


66 61 64


62 58
62 58
61 49
76 67
71 67
79 6
73 72


f i
"Table 5.- Prices of specified oil-bearit. .7.ateri.ls, December 1936 and 1939:
October-December 19L0
Item Ut December : 1940
t :: 1938 : 1939 : Oct. Nov. : Dec.
: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.

astor beans, Brazilian, c. f.. ii. Y. ....: Ton: -- --- 5100 51 00 51..00
;opra, bags, f.c.b., Pacific Coast .........:cwt.: 170 2.04 1.1.2 1.41 1.42
ttonseed, Dallas .........................: Ton: 23.'0 27.61 '24.07 27.20 26.94
laxseed, No. 1, LiLneapolis ...............: u.: I.D 2.07 1.47 1.59 1.64
eanuts, shelled, Runners No. 1, S.E. mills :cwf.: "5.25 5.30' 4.75 1.88 5.05
soybeans, No. 2 Yellow, Chicago ............: Bu. 1.15 .83 .95 .95
Comupilcd from Oil,- Paint and Drug Reporter, Chicago Daily T2rade Sul.etin, Minne-
Apolis Mar'-.et Record., and reports of the Ar-iicultural iEarketin; Service.
STable 6.- Price per ton of spe-ified oilca.:e meals, December 1938
and 1939, October-December 1940
i. e: Deceiber : 1940
:_ __ 1938 : 1939 : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol.
pra meal, Los Anyeles ........................: 23.75 2S.80 20.50 21.55 22.20
ottonseed neal, 41 pet. protein, I.r.ephis ......: 22...0 29.50 25.05 29.30 28.95
ttonseed neal, 41 pet. protein, Chicago ......: 28.55 35.50 30.60 35.60 35.25
inseed meal, 37 pet. protein, Minneapolis .....: 39.75 35.50 25.10 28.25 28.90
seed meal, 34 pet. protein, N. Y. ........... /41.75 36.40 25./.5 27.50 26.60
peanut meal, 45 pct. protein, f.o.b.,SE. mills ...: 21.25 34.C0 21.05 24.94 22.70
bean meal, 41 pet. protein, Chicago .........: 26.20 34.95 25.90 30.50 29.60
piled from records of the Agricultural lLarketing Service.
Bagged, carlots, except for peanut meal. 2/ 30-32 percent protein.


60
88
64
89

66
66
41
65
62
94
95






- 12 -


Table 7.- Production, stocks, trade, and disappearance of butter, lard,
rendered pork fat, and cottonseed oil, United States,
November 1938 and 1939, September-November 1940


Item


: Novemb _r : __1940
: Y938. 1939 : Sept. : ct. : Nov. /1
:1,000 Ib. 1,000 lb. 1,000 lb. 1,000 lb. 1000 lb.


Production (creamery only) ........: 116,841
Cold storage holdings, end of month: 160,632
Exports ..........................: 268
Imports ......................... : 107
Apparent consumption 2/ ...........: 151,311


111,053
89,783
367
91
149,105


144,205
128,087
264
98
150,219


135,435
105,106
272
'91
158,235


115,720
67,598
406
128
152,950


Production under Federal inspection: 102
Cold storage holdings, end of month: 74
Exports ............. ..............: 16
Apparent consumption 2/ ...........: 79


,501 128,419
,499 88,955
,009 25,70E
,660 82,496


Lard
84,310
S 235,690
3 9,956
S 110,954


Production under Federal inspection:
Cold storage holdings, end of month:
Exports ...... ......... ........... :
Apparent consumption ..............



Production ........................:
Factory and warehouse stocks, end
of month 5/ ....................:
Exports 5/ ...,...................
Imports 5/ .......................:
Apparent consumption ..............:
______ ___________


Rendered pork fat 3/
--- -- -


--- 1508
15,838
--- 5,120
S 4/
10,718


194,737

711,596
145
7,104
123,951


Compiled as follows:
Production of creamery butter and storage


Cottonseed oil, crude basis
200,6 75 110,592 224,625


711,691
2,364
2
108,908


454,512
1,116
540
123,387


531,196
1,071
2,835
149,706


holdings of butter, lard, and r


205,192

612,919
525

122,944


endered


pork fat, Agricultural Marketing Service.
Production of lard and rendered pork fat under Federal inspection, Bureau of
Animal Industry.
Exports and imports, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
Production and stocks of cottonseed oil, Bureau of the Census.
Apparent consumption computed.
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Excludes farm butter and non-federally inspected lard.
3/ Included with lard prior to November 1940.
4/ Included with lard, if any.
/ Crude plus refined converted to crude basis by dividing by 0.93.


114,789
223,166
10,198
117,115


129,549
232,472
10,228
110,015


__- --


I


FOS-47


r


i







- 13 -


Table 8.- Oleomargarine: Production and materials used in manufacture,
United States, November 1938 and 1939, September-November 1940


SItem
sq.







Total 2/ .................:
: icuti on:






!aWterials used:
010 loriled ......................:
Olsostearine ...................
a od, neutral ...............:
:Oleo stock ...................:
Olnostearine ..............:

Total, animal .............:

Cottonseed oil ...............:
Soybean oil ......................:
Peanut oil .................:
Corn oil .....................:



vegetable ...a............

Coconut oil .................:
Babassu oil ..................:
Palm-kernel oil ..............:

Total, foreign vegetable..:
Total, fats and oils

Milk .o t ol ..................:
Salt and other miscellaneous


November


1938

1,000 lb.


123
30,153


30,276


940
262
112
109


1,423


10,807
4,303
246
114


1939

1,000 lb.


143
27,743


: 1940 1/


Sept. Oct. I Nov.
1,000 lb. 1,000 lb. 1,000 lb.


214
26,328


215
29,945


27,886 26,542 30,160 30,002


1,240
282
426
95
18


1,17U


9,701
8,074
201
34
1


15,477 18,011


7,023
643
18


i,6684
24,5584


5,838
1,366


2,154
1,057


2,061


9,956
7,605
153
1


1,159
347
427
107
20


2,060


11,827
8,664
185
19
1


17,715 20,696 20,340


1,142
331


o--e11 I-- -


6 l,21 1,473
22,400 21,249


5,337
1,301


5,118
1,112


1,464
138


1,602
24,358

5,545
1,222


Compiled from Internal Revenue records and Internal Revenue Bulletin.

1/ Preliminary
I/ Total of unrounded numbers.


IiOS47
iF FOS-47


278
29,724


1,345
263
406
107
19


2,140


10,908
9,257
157
17

1


1,664
56


1,720
24,200


5,544
1,209


"' "~"-"


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