The Fats and oils situation

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Title:
The Fats and oils situation
Physical Description:
301 v. : ill. ; 26-28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington
Publication Date:
Frequency:
frequency varies

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Oil industries -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Oils and fats, Edible -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
FOS-1 (Mar. 1937) - FOS-301 (Oct. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-<Oct. 1977>; Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, <May 1978>-July 1980; Economics and Statistics Service, Oct. 1980.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board," Oct. 1977-Oct. 1980.
General Note:
Title from caption.
General Note:
Item 21-D.

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502965
oclc - 01588232
notis - ACS2699
lccn - 46039840 //r82
issn - 0014-8865
sobekcm - AA00005305_00022
Classification:
lcc - HD9490.U5 A33
ddc - 380.1/41385/0973
System ID:
AA00005305:00022

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Fats and oils outlook & situation

Full Text

.6 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

S OS-2 April 1935

UD U FT
TEI FATS AND.OILS SITUATION



This month's issue is devoted largely to the tloe6M PWI ree
oilseedss soybeans, flaxseed, and peanuts. Future issues w
Other phases of the fate and oils situation.


ESTIMATED SOYBEAN PRODUCTION EXCLUDING CHINA









6-n












MANCHURIA
1OS 0 1 67%
IU

















'.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
i".- ;:-


S









CONTEIlTS

Outlook Page
Soybeans and soybean nil ........ . .... 1 11

Flaxseed and linseed oil . . 12 13

Peanuts and peanut oil . ...... .. 14 15


Statistics
Cottonseed oil, disappearance, by months, Aug. 1935 Ihar. 1937


Oleomargarine, materials used in manufacture, Jan.-Feb., 1936-37 17 18

Price per pound of fats and oils, Feb.-Mar., 1936-37 . 18 19


16


Table 1. -


Soybeans:


Production in specified countries, 1925-36


Cr:'p United : Netherland
year States :Manchuria 1/: Chosen Japan : India 2/
year 1,000 b
: l,n03 bu. 1,00 bu. 1,000 bu. l 000 bu. 1 000 bu.


1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1950
1i31
1932
1933
1934
1955
1936


4,875
5,239
6,938
7,880
9,398

13,471
16,733
14,975
13,147
23,195
44,378
29,616


126,113
107,731
163., 3.;3
177" ,0.- ,
178,389

196,944
192,057
156,821
169,056
122,980
141,793
155,424


23,609
22,276
24,300
19,510
20,434

22,989
21,155
22,578
23,324
19,519
22,401


17,106
14,213
15,467
14,110
12,585

14,381
11,777
11,435
13,307
10,255


4,038
3,608
3,961
4,303
3,917

4,692
4,722
5,471
6,676
6,445
7,448


i_, Data for MIaiichuria are from reports cf the South Manchurian Railway,
and 1'anchurian Government cooperating, and do not include large pro-
duction in China proper.
2/ I!ative crops Fnly.
3/ Preliminary.

Countries producing small amounts of soybeans include U.S.S.R., Bulgaria,
and others.


FOS-2


- 2 -







SOYBEANS ATD SQBEAN OIL

Soybean oil has enjoyed a rapidly increasing importance in the United

States during the past few years. As recently as 1930, it accounted for less

than 1 percent of the vegetable oil production from domestic materials in the

United States and only about 2/10 of 1 percent cf the total consumption of fats

and oils. But in 1936, soybean oil represented 12 percent of the vegetable oil

production and 2-1/2 percent of the total consumption. Thus, the outlook for

the soybean crop, embracing beans and meal as well as oil, is of growing sig-

nificance in the fat and cil siturticn in the United States.

World Production and Imports of Soybeans

Although domestic production of soybeans has greatly increased in recent
years, the United Stctes is still a poor second to Manchuria in production. (See
cover page.) The 1936 Manchurian crop of 155 million bushels accounted for
two-thirds of world production, excluding China proper. China produces large
quantities but reliable statistical data are not available. Practically all
the soybeans entering world trade are from Manchuria.

Germany is the largest single importer, but steadily, year by year, is
taking fewer beans. Imports into Germany in 1936 were only about 40 percent of
1932 imports. From 1931 to 1935, the United Kingdom imported a not average of
about 79 million pounds of soybean ril and oil equivalent of soybeans, but net
imports in 1936 amounted to only slightly over 50 percent of the previous 5-year
average, partly because of ad valorem import duties of 10 percent on soybeans,
effective August 1, 1935, and 20 percent on soybean oil, effective Varch 11,
1936. Denmark's net imports of soybeans and oil remained at about the same
level as in 1935, or about 42 million pounds total. Sweden, next in importance
as an importer, has taken a steadily increasing volume of soybeans, growing from
1 million bushels in 1931 to 5 million bushels in 1936.

Increasing Domestic Production

From 1924 to 1931 there was a marked upward trend in domestic production,
but the increase in any one year was slight. Following smaller crops in 1932
and 1933, production jumped to 23 million bushels in 1934, and 44 million bushels
in 1935. There were several reasons for this rapid growth. Some of the in-
crease in soybean acreage was undoubtedly due to reductions in acreage planted
to other crops in accordance with the agricultural Adjustment programs. The
relative freedom of soybeans from drought and pest hazards probably played a
part also. Moreover, the record crop in 1935 was encouraged by the satisfactory
prices received in 1934. Production in 1936 fell to 30 million bushels because
of lower yields and reduced acreage. The smaller acreage was largely the re-
sponse to lower prices paid for the large 1935 crop, although the f-ct that soy-
beans for crushing were classified as soil-depleting under the Agricultural Con-
servation Program also may have been a factor. The upward trend in soybean pro-
duction seems likely to continue, but increases as large as those in 1934 and
1935 will probably not be repeated for some tinu. See trble 2.


FOS-2


- 3 -







FOS- 2


Table 2.- Soybeans: Acreage, yield per acre, and production, 1i24-36


:Equivalent : :Acreage from:
: of total Acreage :which beans :
Year .except for
Year slid :excet for:are gathered:
: acreage 1/ hay) 2/ 3/
1,000 acres 1 000 acres 1 000 acres


1924
1921
1926
1927
IZ28
1929

1930
1931
1932
1533
1934
1Cs35.


/


1,782
1,785
2,127
2,3150
2,439
2,736

3,387
4,194
4,049
5,777
5,994
7,111
6,312


e35
610
696
794
830
994

1,366
1,494
1,374
1, 34
1,925
3,111
3,1n3


448
415
466
568
579
708

1,008
1,104
977
997
1,539
2,697
2,113


Yield per
acre


Production


Bushels j1000 bu.


11.0
11.7
11.2
12.2
13.6
13.3

13.4
15.2
15.3
13.2
15.0
16.5
14.0


4,947
4,875
5,239
6,938
7,880
9,398

13,471
16,733
14,975
13,147
23,095
44,378
29,616


1_/ Computed as fcll-ws: Add acreage for 1. Grain; 2. Hay; 3. Other
purposes; 4. Interplanted with other crops reduced by 0.50 for all States
except '?ississippi which is reduced by 0.60.
2/ Excluding soybeans cut for hay. Soybeans planted in corn, and soybeans
grazed or hogged off are included for the important Southern States but
omitted for unimportant Northern States.
3/ Solid equivalent of acres from which soybeans are gathered.
4/ Preliminary.


Domestic Production and Consumption of S:-ybean Oil

Since 1930, when the present tariff of 2 cents per pound was imposed
on soybeans, imports have been negligible. Although soybeans have, at times,
been exrorted from the United States since 1931, most of the increased I1ro-
luction in recent years has been crushed in this country. Consequently the
domestic production of soybean oil has kept pace with that of soybeans, in-
cressin, from 26 million pounds in the 1933--1 marketing year, to 73 r-nd 209
million pounds in 1934-35 and 1935-36,respectively. See table 5.


____


- 4 -









This increased production occurred at the same time that the demand
for soybean oil for edible uses also was increasing because of reduced supplies
of lard and cottonseed oil. As a result, most of the increased production went
into the edible field. Prior to 1935, tne most important outlet for soybean
oil was in the paint and other drying-oil industries. In the past 2 years,
however, the increased consumption in the edible field has made soybean oil
predominantly an edible oil. In the period 1931-34, 50 percent of the factory
consumption was in the drying-oil industries, while only 21 percent went into
edible products. During the past 2 years, the amount of soybean oil used as
a drying oil actually increased but represented only 13 percent of total
factory consumption compared with 77 percent used in the edible field.


Table 3.- Soybeans crushed, exported, and used
soybean oil, crude, production, imports, and
1924-25 to 1935-36


for feed or seed;
apparent disappearance,


Year
beginning
Oct.


1924-25
1925-26
1926-27
1927-28
1928-29
1929-30

1930-31
1931-32
1932-53
19.3-.34
1935-35
1935-36


: Soybeans Soybean oil, crude
: : Total as:Used for :Factory : :Apparent
::Exported:percentage: seed-or produc- : Net : dis-
:Crushed : I/ : of feed tion : imports :appear-
: : :_ reduction: ::: ance
:1,l00 b 1,c000 bu. recent 000 bu.:l0001.:,000 ]b.:l,000 lb.

S 307 6.2 4,640 : 2,268 15,180 19,924
S 351 7.2 ,524 : 2,639 26,675 23,153
S 335 6.4 : 4,904 : 2,658 11,853 16,394
S 559 8.1 :6,379 :4,373 4,942 10,039
: 82 11.2 : 6,99 : 7,284 8,518 11,487
S1,666 17.7 : 7,732 : 13,424 5,814 17,983


4,069
4,7235
3, -7' '
3,054
9,105
25,181


2,131
2,4,50

19
3,490


31:.2
41.2
35,5
23.3
39.5
64.6


9,402
9, -47

10,'j93
13,971
15,707


: 34,688
: 39,946
2C. 078

: 78,123
2C8,965


197
2/-2,339
1,422
2/ -96
9,509
5,219


31,871
36,919
36,293
22,141
8,,260
159,110


1/ Inspected for export by Federal licensed inspectors.
2/ Net exports.
3J Preliminary.

Compiled as follows:
Production of soybean oil and crusnings :f soybeains, B1 renu of the Census,
Animal and Vegetable Fats and Oils. Reports do not state -'hethier production
of oil is from do.:estic or foreign materials.
Net imports of soybean oil, Forei-gn Commerce and fl.,vi.sation of tie United
States. Crude and rE.fined not separ,.tel: reporlcd, used as crude.


- 5 -


FOS-2







FOS-2


The follor'in' table supplies t'tal utilization d-.ta used in Figure 1.
See -iso table 5.


TE.ble 4.- Soybec- oil, crude: Productioi, trade, stocks Dec. 31, and
appLArent disapper.rr.ce, 1924 36


: Factory :
: produc- : Imports : Exports
: tion :


:1,000 lb.

950
2,520
2,646
: 3,C08
4,716
: 11,009

: 14,387
: 39,150
: 39,445
: 26,533
: 35,366
105,0 56
:220,297


l,OuO lb. 1,0"00 lb.


9,125
19,493
30,712
14,915
13,116
19,489

8,348
4,916
405
3,669
2/ 2,829
14,248
-7,1S


2,264
520
1,567
5,444
7,142
7,967

4,962
4,551

2,040

4,111
4,029


: : oet :
:Reexports: imports"

1,000 lb. 1,000 lb.


277
1,748
545
1,134
852
129

517
898
46
0


6,584
17,225
28,600
2,287
5,122
11,393

2,369
-533
-2,2E8
2, 100
7389
10,137
3,159


Stocks, :Apparent
Dec.31 : dis-p-
:Dc.rra.nce
1,000 lb. 1,000 lb.


2,836
2,455
7,723
6,291
6,073
15,631

15,178
18,650
16,552
13,534
19,007
31,090
33,390


14,149
20,123
25,981
12,607
10,056
12,844

17,709
35,145
39,255
31,651
30,682
103,110
226,156


met exports.
Imports for consumption, bejin..i.-.g Janua ry 1934.
PTrl-i i;i.:.ary.


Compiled as follows:
Productio.i and stocks -
3,reau of the Census, Animal and V.etr.ble F-.ts and Oils.
Reports di: not state wether from domestic or f.-,rci.n materi.ls,
1924-36. Stocks are crude plus refined, converted to crude
b:..si: (usi.ic; 0.94).
Ti'.de fi2ares -
1924-36, Foreign; Commerce and NTvigwation of the :United States, Crude
and rcfiiied not srpnar..t.ly r.-prrted, used as crude.
A!:,,.:-Lit disr.ppcerance computed from other items.


C il .d-.r
year


1924
1325
1925
19267


1929

1930
1931
1932
193 3

1935
:1.95 3/


- ----- --


- 6 -











UTILIZATION OF SOYBEAN OIL BY GROUPS OF
INDUSTRIES. UNITED STATES, 1931 TO DATE
POUNDS
(MILLIONS)


1932 1933 1934 1935 1936
INCLUDING FOOTS USED IN SOAP


U S DEPARTMENTOFAGRICULTURE


NEG 32293 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I








With present technical akno-:1,dgc, soybean oil is still esse-.ti-lly a
substitute oil. Although there are some uses to -anich it has bo.n found to
be specially adapted, they supply an outlet for only sm..ll part of the
production. In paints and varnishes, soybean oil is hrandicapped by a.
rol-.tively lo:- drying power, and is mixed with other oils of higher during
qualities chiefly on the basis of its lo.-er price. I. edible products it
is at a disadvantage bec-use of its tendency to r.cquirc :an unpleasant flavor
on .ging, :nd a lower price is also t.i b.sis for its utilization in this
field. If and .iwen supplies of lard n-.d cottonseed oil return to normal, con-
suriTption of soybean oil in food products m.-r decre-se sharply unless this
handicap is overcome in the mea.itime.

Reported factor consumption s i noi in the following: table is some-thc.t
less t r?.:n total disappeiar .ce computed o.x production, stocks and trade. Sec
also table 4.


Table 5.- Sojbe-a oil: Factory co nsumption, by classes of products,1931-36


Products :1931 : 1932 :1933 : 1934 : 1935 : 1936

:1,00l O b.1,000 l,1,000 lb.1,000 b.1,000 lb.1,000 lb,
Compouids and vegetable :
shorteninis : 10,869 4,889 489 2,735 52,452 113,697
Olomarn.arine : 623 3 7 24 1,740 14,262
Other edible 180 460 509 9,421 21,598
So~o : 3,816 5,571 4,235 1,354 2,549 5,023
Drying industry 1/ :8,901 11,593 14,274 13,353 17,871 17,419
Miscellaneous :2,051 1,875 2,626 2,109 1,665 3,405
Loss, including foots :1,625 1,158 867 823 5,468 8,959


Total



Compounds and vegetable
shortenintgs
Oleoma.rgarine
Other edible
So.-.p
Dryi.:. industry, 1/
Miscellaneous
Loss, including foots


27,885 25,269 22,958 20,907 91,166 184,563
: As a percentage of the total factory
: consumption of soybean oil
Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent:

39 19 2 13 57 61
2 2/ 2/ 2 8
1 2 2 10 12
14 22 19 7 3 3
32 46 32 64 20 9
S7 11 10 2 2
6 5 4 4 6 5


T:t..l 100 100 100 100 100 100

1/ Includes paints and varnishes, linoleum and oilcloth, and printiif inks.
2/ Less than one-half of one percent.

Ba.-ed on Bureau of the Census, Factory Consumption of Primary Anilml .aid
Vegetable Fats and Oils, by Classes of Products, calendar years, 1931-36,
inclusive.


FOS-2


- 8 -









Sunrn'.r;, of Outlook for So;bea.-s

At r:i-cscnt, the so'-be-.: situ-.ticn is i.frv rnble to fr'r ,':or :.dit]i ood
prices bci in pnid a-: a, riault of reduced production i., i ~1 -d .i r ctlr ,i de.,nrnd
for both oil and meal. T:he irruTediate outlook is also sa.ti;f-..tor.,r ,vit.i the
ses.-.onl demand for soyberas for seed purposes Fexpected to offs;.t t:ec price-
depressi;g e-ffct of possible decline in mercl prices.

For the l-.st part of 1937, now'7ev.r, the outlook is iss f-."'r.ble.
If production this year is -is lar: as a:rcr.,,c intentions indica.t?, mc-
prices man;. f.'.ll to t.ie level of $20 tO $25 per toin ...lic:a prevailed in- 195-5.
If this should occur, it would i:ve dcpr esci'in effect on so;,'ba--, .ris C,
oven t:-ou-h sober, oil prices continue .oigh.

Presoet Sitiation anid Imnciit.te Outlook

Prices of o;,bens, so,:ban mec..i, ru.d soy'.bc:'. oil 9re "t re: t-tlvl.z
high levels at t:.c present time. T,:. dem-andi .or so;,-b.ano .s w.2-.:, \;ill t.-m.d
to keep bcAi prices up d.uri:n: t;:: next fc. mont.-s, a.lth u. c.'.r-.;, in t.-:
prices of soib::.n oil ?.nd iic-.1i ill still be importntt f..toars in.flu.nci:::
t;E- price of so;,'br..-; C i'.tinue-i business rE.covecr; anid i..creo-sed cc s.jj r
purc.-.:.i.,g po-'or a1. '::pr"ect .; L3 r s.-ilt i, an incrc:.sed dc, i..rid f)r ediol,
f?.ts .nd oils. I.. -.-ie. :: t.-c exp.-cted decre.rse in prroducti :ii of l.rd 1.1 1937
as ,. result of drought liquid-tion of .o3. i..urian 1936, demand for c tt- n-
seed c, sci;:ba:-r pi ,.t, -... :.tiir Cdill e oils uIS-L'.L in t..- m:,lU-i'2:tL,: : .:..1f l.rd
substitute zjill prob-blr rc'.lni str:'ig, -n d ,oybea.- oil .ill conrtinru,- t
be used c..icfl:- p.- r..- cdibl: oil.

The 1336 c-:.cise t:ices n. oils may-. tend to Stre'i-.t.n t'. price. 3f
soy,bean oil r.-id other domestic oilZs jsc.i in edibl, prt:..diu:t ?.lt.-.:i the
use o:f unt: ,,-d suLs;itut;s m, i.croear slig.-.tl. De::id fr ails i.i
paints aui ':.1ris.. a -.so :.ill in;creas- '.Wit;n t-O co.:n,_tini-LuLd r,:viv 1 of
bul 1,' in- activity out con sumLLptio,.n .jf soa.bc-mn oil ini tl-.is field iS ot
likeCi, to she..' aWn; ainifica:nt i:icr-ase-. T.I,c excise t -ae n. o prill ,rnd
hcimpze.:d oils .-a.:. allsccds ..'ill t.end t,. incr.:--.l t.:, us.e ,f liin-sec- ..id
tu,-' oils but m,- disco'ura e _. us. 1f sob r.n ,>. in p.i t ; 0,, in.r'e:sin
the c.,st :if t..e pC rill:.-soy ber.n ail ce.nbi..-tio.,i .::icf' :Lr.3 b:-,n t:. "':.icle
for a l.r:,e_ part of t.i s;:.bc-i oii ui s.-d i:i t.-e tpint indust ry, C. ::r-.r. ti.vo
prices of so. be:.n, pi:rill ...d lined oils -.re s..o:, in -'i .t .

Prices of s. "-be-j mea.l .-.ve b-if. rel.-tiv-ely l-i h during t :. l-.st
8 months, along ..it cut tiseed .nd li nss:id .;..] 1, l:argel- b:-.use of ta.c
drought id t..e r s.1 t in. incre.a-,ed demc-nd f:or fceil. Incre-.se.s i, i.in: rts
'.ttr. .'ted U.. t'he .i-ii. pricj's, tj.,et'c.ar '..i': .-,.,'r .".,L ',4.., mli i',:.n..L i. .-
decline i:: t.-,o price of so.', c-n rmi.- 'l in t..e ext fIr.; ont.:. Oil prices
.nd d dr..:,.nd a.re expected to support the :;-.rkc t, hotev:r, aid it i'r
probablie t..-t sobc.-.ns will c:ontiue to bri..;: good price: uitil tae ne'."
crop ent;-r ti.e picture.


- 9 -


FOS-2









PRICE OF SOYBEAN OIL COMPARED WITH OTHER OILS, 1929 TO DATE


CENTS
PER
POUND



10





5





0 -






10





5





0 -






10


,* Coconut oil.
New York

I I

ING OILS

Linseed oil. raw.
Minneapolis

^^^f


5 -





0
1929 1930
US.DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN.
1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
NEG 32289 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2





FOS-2 11 -

Acreage intentions for 1a3

According to the March 1 acreage intentions,6.3 million acres of soybeans
gro-n alone for all purposes are indicated for harvest in 1937. This is an
increase of 11.3 percent over the corresponding acreage harvested in 1936.

The 1957 production of soybeans depends on the proportion of the total
acreage which will be harvested for beans, as vell as on the yields obtained.
It is probable that most of the increase in soybean acreage is for beans, in-
asmuch as the increase is largely in the iorth Central States.

If hay supplies should prove short Inter in tne season, ho-wever, a con-
siderable amount of the soybean acreage may be harvested for hay. If Corn-
Belt pastures should sho-r great losses, a material shift from bean acreage to
hay acreage might result in that area. Because of this variable factor, no
exact estimate of production can be made; but with normal yields, from 34 to
44 million bushels may be expected, with about 38 million bushels as the most
probable figure. This would be 8 million bushels above last year's production
but 6 million less than the record production in 1935.

The first official estimate of 1937 soybean production in important pro-
ducing Soates -ill not be released by the Bureau's Crop Reporting Poard until
September 10, and not until November 10 for all other States.

Outlook for 1937-38

Since the prices paid for soybeans for crushing purposes depend on the
value of the oil and meal produced, continuance of the present favorable
situation in the last part of 1937 and in 1938 will depend on good prices for
these two products.

Maintenance of present high prices for soybean oil will depend to a
considerable extent on continued demand for edible uses. If there should be
a sudden decrease in demand in tnis field, it is probable that the paint and
other drying-oil industries could absorb the surplus only at materially lower
prices. Consequently, tnh prospective supply of lard is an important factor
in the outlook. Stocks of lard, tctalin, 202 million pounds on March 1 are
two and one-half times as large as stocks a year ago. Lower production in
1937 will probably offset the large stocks, however, and total available
supplies this year will probably differ little from those in 1936 but will
be well below the average suppli.:s for the 5 years 1929-33. Therefore, the
demand for lard substitutes -ill probably remain high during the remainder
of 1937 and, to a lesser degree, in 1938.

AlthouQh there may be material increases in the production of com-
peting vegetable oils as a result of larger crops this year, it is unlikely
that these increases will be large enough to curtail the use of soybean oil
in edible products during 1937-3S, end prices of soybean oil will probably
remain at a fairly high level.

The value of the soybean mEal is usually morF than 50 percent of the
total value of oil and meal, and the outlook for soybean meal is a very
important element in the outlook for soybeans. Soybean meal is used chiefly
as a cattle feed in competition with cottonseed and linseed meals. Prices of
soybean meal will depend to a large extent on the total supply of these three
meals. Since this supply us expected to be increased in 1937, prospects for
soybean meal are somewhat/favorable.




F)S-2


- 12 -


FLAXSEED AM: LINSED OIL

The 1937 United States flaxseed crop -ill enter a market this fall af-

fected by larger world supplies and slightly greater world demand than in the

fall of 1936.

Combining estimates of January stocks of old seed, 1937 production, and
movement into consumption between January 1 and August 1, 1937, for the four
principal producing countries other than Russia, results in an estimated August
1, 1337, supply of about 60 million bushels compared with about 53 million bush-
els on the same date 1936. By the time the 1937 domestic crop is harvested,
estimates will be available of the acreage to be planted in Argentina for the
1938 crop. As in past years, these Argentine prospects will be an important
factor in the market for the domestic crop in the fall months. No estimate of
the 193C Argentine crop is attempted at this time.

The 1,306, ,nn1 acres of flaxseed indicated for harvest in the United State'
in 1937, is an increase of about 11 percent over the 1,IS0,000 acres harvested
in 1936, but is only h7 percent of the 5-year (1928-32) average of 2,772,000
acres. If the yields should be normal the August 1 commercial supply may not ex-
ceed that of last year by more than 3' percent and would be less than half the
prospective domestic requirements.

Table 6.- Flaxseed supplies in important producing -ountries,
average 1328-32, annual 1933-37

Flaxseed supplies. Aug. 1 : Argentine crop
:United States :____
: Seed
ear Com- eqia-:Canada : Argen-: India : Total
:mercial:1ent of: : tina Au. 1 : Year Crop 6/
: supply:linseed: 4/ :supplies
S 1_ : oil
:____stccks :
S1, 0 1,0(' 1,00 1,000 1, 00 1, 00 : : 1,000
:Iushels tushels bushels bushels bushels tushels : bushels
Average : :Average
1928-32 : 17,901 r,60,- 3,7, 27,5(C 11,455 67,196 :1929-33 :71,559

1933 : 8,179 4,612 1,694 17,461 12,977 4,923 : 1934 :62,595
1934 : 7,3"3 h,38 1,27C, 22,277 l, 'S 6, 346 : 1955 :79,720
1935 : 15,41 5,597 1,737 29,893 14,796 67,424 193 : 59,445
193h : 8,196 7,502 1,344 24,477 1',424 52,543 1937 : 74,012
1937 7:/(, 300)

i/ United States, July 1 factory, market, and farm stocks of all seed plus
crop, less seed for planting next crop.
2/ Stocks of oil as of June 31 in mills and warehouses only.
I/ Canadian total stocks July 31, plus crop, less seed for next crop.
Argentine stocks of old seed January 1, plus crop, less exports January
1 to July 31, less estimated domestic disappearance.
5/ Indian crop less exports April 1 July 31.
/ The Argentine harvest usually begins in December and continues through the
first fe-v months of the follo-ing year. 7/ Preliminary estimate.







- .13 -


Present indications point toward a sliht increase in w-orld demand for
flaxseed in the fall of 1937 connared with the 1936-37 season. Building:
activity in the United Stntes has increased in volume each year since 1932 and
this trend is ernected to continue in 1937. Buildin- costs have increased and
may becor.e a more important factor in detcrr.inin- the rate of increase in
building. in the Unite! States. Dennnd for linsced oil in Envland, the most
important sin le forei-n consumer, is erected to show little chan--e in 1937.
Chan-es in the demand for linseed oil in France and Gernany are not expected
to be irmortant.

Table 7.- Linseed oil and flaxseed: Production, trade, stocks June 30,
and apparent disappearance, United States, 1920-21 to 1936-37
(net ex-orts nre indicated by a minus siln)
Year : Flaxseed Linseed oil
besinnin : Net : Reported :Net exports: Stocks, : Apparent
July :Production: imports :factory : or net :June 30 : disar-
: : productionn: imports : pearance
:1,000 bu. 1,000 'u. :1,000 b. 1,000 lb. 1,000 lb. 1,000 11.

1920-21 :10,900 16,169 : 484,313 10,764 83,707 475,741
1921-22 : 8,107 13,630 440,424 165,961 97,063 593,029
1922-23 :10,520 25,006 :594,750 53,659 81,462 664,010
1923-24 : 16,563 19,577 673,918 15,212 74,137 696,455
1924-25 : 31,220 13,119 : 751,340 21,152 126,793 719,866
1925-26 : 22,334 19,354 :703,855 14,393 129,721 715,325
1926-27 :18,531 24,224 : 749,947 -1,407 152,892 725,369
1927-28 : 25,174 18,112 : 810,603 -1,875 191,192 770,428
1928-29 : 19,118 23,494 :737,533 4,657 123,543 S09,534
1929-30 : 15,924 19,652 : 651,038 3,287 108,842 669,031

1930-31 :21,673 7,813 : 488,545 -1,042 73,205 518,140
1931-32 : 11,755 13,849 : 438,763 -845 116,954 399,169
1932-33 :11,511 6,213 :318,120 -745 6, 477 347,852
1933-34 : 6,904 17,901 :442,796 1/11,866 12,8, 46 412,733
1934-35 2j 5,661 15,332 : 404,060 2,290 104,949 429,807
1935-36 21 14,520 15,388 : 505,530 139 140,666 469,952
1936-37 2J 5,908

1/ I.por ts for consuma-'tion, lbe-innin- J-n'-iry 1934.
/ Preliminary.

Compiled as follows:
Production of flaxseed Bureau of Agricultural Econonics.
Production and stocks of linseed oil Bureau of the Census, Ani.nl and
Ve eatble Fats and Oils. Factory -)roduction is from domestic and imported
seed. Stocks are mill and warehouse (or crushers) stocks -nd do not take
account of stocks in hands of local dealers, in transit, etc.
Trade fi-ires Forei-n Cor.imerce and lavir-ntion of the United States.
Apparent .isapnearance commuted front other ite-.s.


FOS-2







PEA-UTS

The 1937 peanut acreage is expected to te increased 2 percent over

the record large acreage harvested last year but, with average yields, this

increased acreage would result in a total peanut crop slightly under that

produced in 1936.

During the past 2 seasons, unusually large quantities of peanuts -"ere
crushed for oil and th. indications are that still larger quantities are
being so used in the current (1936-37) season. Whereas, crushings averaged
73 million pounds of peanuts in-the-shell during the 5 years 1926-32, and
totaled only 45 million pounds in the 193l7-3 season, they incr'-ased to 220
million pounds in 1934-35 and to 241 million pounds in 1935-36. (Table 8).
In the current season (1936-37), crushing during the first quarter amounted
to 136 million pounds and were 26 percent greater than in the first quarter
of the 1935-56 season.

This unusual increased demand for peanuts, together with improving
consumer purchasing po-rer, has resulted in substantially higher average
prices to growers during the past 3 seasons, despite the large crops pro-
duced. Although the iTro.uction of peanuts for nuts totaledl3billion rounds
in 1936 compared with '346 million pounds, the 1928-32 average, prices re-
ceived by gro-er: have risen sharply from the season's low point in November
and have averaged higher than for any season since 13r.

With another large peanut cro' in prospect for 1937, it appears that
crushers will again have to take a relativel-. large quantity of peanuts if
r-rices are to continue at the l.-vels prevailing in recent years. Recently,
prime crude peanut oil, -ith 5 percent refining loss, "as quoted at 10-1/S
to IC-1/4 ?ents per pound compared -7ith 8-3/8 to S-1/2 cents a year earlier,
and bleached -ottonseed oil, Mar.h delivery, ranged from 11.20 to 11.35 cents
Per pound, against :. tc, 9.L8 2ents a year ago. Based upon the relation-
ship of normal requirements of edible fats and oils generally to the pros-
pective supply for 1937-38, it is probable that the demand for peanuts for
oil production -ill be as great next season as in the 1936-37 season.


FOS-2


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COTTONTSEED OIL
The cottonsee'. cron of 19~c-37 ?nountc.l to 5,513,0n0 short tons cor-
2.re4d with 4,729,0`'0 sh'rt tons in :1'32-..0. Consrq-tior. of refined cottonseed
oil '.urin- the -ast 3 or.ths (Deccri.er, J-nuorry, ant' Fc'riary) .ms totaled
334 :-.illion -ounds, zomr.n-arFd with 26-4 million -oands in t-.e st-i -icrioc! of
1935-36. Total stocks of refined oil "nd the refiner' equivalent of crude oil
amounted to 649 r.illion -ounds nt the cnd of Fe'rruiry 1937, conm.nrced with 607
million 'ounr's on t'r.c sa e C.-te in 1923, and -n aver- e of 780 million -"ounds
for 1921-35. (T.':le 9.)

T.-le 9.- Cottonseed oil, refincC: 2ro auction trp,'.e, sticks ond of
rerio'.1, .n:'. a-i; rent iis-i ic r nce, '.y r.onths,
A'r- t 1935 7c'.ruiary 1937

Year : :I,-c.rts for:: Stocks, : An- .rent
anr'. :Producition :consu;imtion: Exorts : end of isa"-
r.nth : : : : ncricd c / : )cnrencc
l: 1,0 1'. 1,000 1L. 1,000 1.. I.0o 1'.. 1,000 '.
1935
A1-, : .,184 8, 65 439 342,818 148,725
Se-mt. : 74.313 9,712 321 286,331 140,191
Oct. : 164,4-3 8, 50 113 290,402 168,809
Iov. : 17?974 6,666 251 3.13,348 125,943
Dec. : 139,21?. ,484 146 402,203 89,301
Jan. : 127,.783 10,973 237 453,256 87,016
2ce. : 112,412 11,287 213 48,95E1 87,791
!ar. : 86,263 13,393 329 504,2 7 83,947
kr. : 65,135 10,47? 15? 47'g-94 91,850
.a; : 41,126 16,255 35. 4':0,13 84,876
June : 40,4-13 9,384 179 408,94-1 101,217
Jul : 29,627 7,462 438 281,73 126,832

Total 1,0'91,777 11 ,390 3,129 1,336,4!9

19362/
Au-. 2:2,75 14,44 125 237,220 118,777
Sent. : 92,c'.D 9,471 161 228,764 110,072
Oct. : 179,72 3,122 269 507,369 103,970
Nov. 1: 3, 75 5,7-8 58 395,250 111,366
Dec. : 168,332 334 102 418,087 17.6,227
Jan. : 167,3.2 9,054 10. 410,448 137,369
Fc'. : 141, 777 1,.73 173 529,781 93,644




f Stoc'-s July 31, 1935, were 444,833,000 -:ounds.
2J Preliminary.

Pro.'action, trade, andi stocks from 3urcv.au of the Cc.sus, Cotton Production and
Distri-ution, and monthly preliminary re-,orts on Zottonsee:1 -an Cottonseed
products.
A-rparent c'isre.-'crance co.eo-ited from other itoms.

These data should not be confusci with --u':lisldc det- concerning. crude cotton-
seed oil.


- 16 -


FOS-2






TOS-2


- 17 -


OLEOIA; "11-. ITE
productionn of oleornar:nrine declined from 32 million -"oun:s in Janurry
1937 to 29 million -ounds in Fe'.rurary. Tlile consider ly '.elov the figures
for the sr:.e -eriod a year o, -roruction is still :.0ell C..ove the 1931-35
avera. e of 24 million -ounds. (T:':le 10.)

The r.ost striking: chnn es in inrredicnts enterin- into olco'mr".nrine
were in coconut, cottonseed, and soy'crn oils. Coconut oil rc-resented only
12 million -ounds or 2- -ercent of the total fnts ann oils use,. in Janur.r, and
Ferun.r,, 19?7, as co-.r ci ':;ith 35 million moun:'.s or E56 -ercent of the totrl
used in thc sanc 2 months in 1936. The amount of cottonseed oil used :ns
more than double t:he vz.oaunt of -ny other sin, Ic oil, end increasedI fro;. 19
million pounds or 31 percent of the totil fats an" oils used in Jnnu-r.i and
FPe'True.ry 1936 to 27 million -ounds or 53 -ercent of the total used in the sane
2 -onths in 1937. (T-'c 11.)

Soybean oil enjoyed an increased use in oleo.:-rrorine -:ianufacture, jump-
in- fror-_ a total of about 500,000 -ountds in Jrnnu?.r and February 1936 to .lore
than 5 million -ounds for the st-,e 2 monthss of 1937. The use of ani..1al oils
rc:.ained --rctically unchan e.. The ne:'. oils scree to '.e vanin: in ir.mortance;
babassu oil decrease? ':y a.jut 50 percent, -nd ouricuri oil, use.d to the
extent of alout 100,000 -oounds ecr Aonr.th in the lst qu.-rter of 1936, dro-ped
to only 45 --ou.-nrs in Jsnurry' -nc'. Feru'L?r; 1937.

TaLle 10.- Oleo. r -rine: Pro.uction aind withdrn'm for consumption,
J.nur'., .-nrd Februnry, gver? e 1931-35, 1936 nn'. 1937

Avern-e 1931-35 : 1936 I/ 1937 l/
Item
J-,n. : Feb. Jn. ret. : J-n. 7Fe.

:'il. il :il. lb. : il. I1. :il. 1':. :'il. lb. !il. 1 .

Production 24 24 3: 39 : 2 29
JTithfrpn for
coInsLU.tion 24 4 371c 38 : 3 29


Comniled rnd connutc:. from re-orts of the Co.-rissioner of Intcrn?.l 2Levcnue.


V/ ireliLinery- esti-i-tes.






FOS-2


- 18 -


Tntle 11.- Oleo:ier-nrine: ..terinls used in .a.nuf.cture, United
States, Janu--ry nn Februa.nry, 1936 and 1937

: 1936 1/ :1937 I/
Iten : : : :
Jan. Fc'. Jan. Feb,

: 1,000 1. 1,000 1 1,000 i1. 1,000 11.

Oleo oil 1,379 1,54 : 1,304 1,363
L-rd, neutral 189 292 165 173
Oleostearine 408 247 : 21 225
Oleo stock 181 174 : 134 131

-othonsce. oil 8,627 10,700 13,815 12,848
?eanut oil : 49 560 307 234
SoyLcan oil 242 348 3,125 2,283
Corn oil 5 : 11 175

Coconut oil :17,946 17,108 : 6,337 5,913
-alassu oil : 57 976 591 256
Palm oil : 105 106 : 18 191
Paln--kernel oil 16 7 4-18 83
Sunflover oil 1 -
Sesane oil : 9 6 1-
Total fp.ts nnd1 oils : 30,229 32,093 :2/ 2,8357 23,877

1ilk : 7,3?6 7,.555 : 5,960 5,197
Other miscellaneous : 2,031 2,123 1,97 1,345

Grrncr total 39,706 41,771 3.,414 20,419


I/ Ircli: in-ry.


2/ Inclu'L:s 45 -ounu's of ouricuri oil.


Co:~riled -r. corrmute:. from reports of the 3o..t.issioner of Int.rnil Revenue.

?TICES OF SELECTED FATS AND OILS
?T!.crc was co:n-arntivclj little difference between the :".rch nC. .TeLrunry
1937 prices of the 31 fats ard oils for -'.ic:h vera-o prices are shovn in
ta",le 12. Practic-lly all the fpts and oils were at markeLly hi h-lcr levels in
F2.'runar "ri.. .nHrch 1927 thrn in the srae months in 1936, -orice increases
ran;inr; fr:nr 1 to 10 cents. Likewise, with few cxce-,tions, -;rices of fnts and
oils in the first quarter of 1937 were on a higher level than the 1936 annual
avera,- -prices. The nost -ronounced "rice increases fro;.i "larch 1936 to 1:arch
1937, are shonm ~ry the followin,-:g Edible olive oil .dv-nced 10.5 cents; tea-
seed oil, 4.9 cents; r-ne oil, 4.7 cents; crude coconut oil, 4.4 cents;
_'erilla oil anc.d roses, 4.3 cents; inedible tallow, 3.9 cents; olive oil foots,
3.8 cents; -utter, 3.6 cents; and crude soy1lenn oil, 3.0 cents. Only two
other oils were lower in 1'rice in Mnrch 1937 than in Narch 1936: Tun;" oil,
1.5 cents, and sesame oil, 0.3 cents.






FOS-2


- 19 -


Table 12.- Price per pound of selected fats and oils,
Februar-y Marc;h, 1936 -id 1937

1936 1937
Fat or oil
Fat or oil Feb. Marc Feb. Marc

Cents Cenits Cents Cents

Butter, 920, New York 36.9 32.2 34.3 35.8
OleomargariL.e, nut, C.:icago 11.5 11.5 15.0 14.4
Lard, prime stea.rn, Chicago 10.B 10.8 12.4 12.5
Lard, refined, C,.icero 12.1 11.9 13.3 13.2
Lard compounds, Cliicg.o : 12.2 11.9 13.8 13.7
Coconut oil,-dible, Ne:. York 7.0 6.8 11.2 11.0
Cottonseed oil, crude, f.o.b.
S.E.mills 8.4 6.3 9.9 9.9
Cottonseed oil, p.s.:y., lie: York : 9.7 9.4 11.0
Soybean oil, refined, INe York 9.6 .6 12.2 12.2
Peanut oil,domestic,refinci, N.Y. 12.6n 12.4 13.5n 13.5n
Rape oil, refined, Nlew York 7.2 7.0 11.4 11.7
Oleo oil, 1:o. 1, le-; York : 12.4 11.5 13.8 13.4
Oleostearine, barrels, ITc:. York : 8.6 7.9 10.4 10.3

Corn oil, refined, Ict. York : 12.1 11.0 12.9n 13.0
Olive oil, edible, Noe York 23.3 22.8 31.3n 33.3n
Sesnme oil, refinui, in:' York 10.6 10.4 10.2n 10. In
Sunflo-:.r oil, refined, !Te-0 York : 10.3 10.0 12.3 12.2n
Teaseed oil, edible, ie-: York : 9.5n 9.lI 14.7u 14.0n

Coconut oil, crude, Pacific Coast : 4.5 4.2 8.2n .on
Tallo';,, inedible, Chicaso 5.6 5.0 8.8 8.9
Grease, house, Ne.: York 5.0 4.5 8.5 8.8
Palm .il, crude, N: .-: 4.9 4.7 6.9n 6.6
Olive oil 3oots, b?rr'l., .e: York : 8.4 8.2 12.5 i2.On
Palm-kernel oil, dcna.tured, I:.Y. 4.3n 4.7n 7.4 7.4
Baba.ssu oil (futuros),t .- ,!.Y. 7.1.. 7. --
Sardine oil, ianks, P.ciiic Coast 5.0 4.4n 6.9 7.2

Linsc:ed oil, ra:-, Minneapolis : 9. 1 9.3 9.8 10.0
Tung oil, drums, liN. York 15.0 16.9 15.1 15.4
Perilla oil, drums, Ile: York : 7.2 7.3 11.6 11.6
Soybean oil, rude, fob rills 7.2 6.8 9.9 9.8
MDnhz.den oil, crud'c, fob -,lto. : 4.8 4.6n 5.1 5.7
Harnpscei oil, crude, ie: York 8.4 8.4 -

Castor oil, No. 3, Ne.' York : 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2
Cod oil, barrels, Te-:foundlhand 5.3n 5.3n .8 : 6.8n




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IllI3III IIIlIII9III 274
3 1262 08904 2740






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