Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
February 1940
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00101

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-38 FEBRUARY 2, 1940



THE P 0 ULTR Y AND EG G S I TUATI O N


HENS AND PULLETS ON FARMS JANUARY 1. UNITED STATES. 1918-40
NUMBER
I MILLION I

420 -


400


380 --


360 -


340


320 -
1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939
E i rMA !EC FFOM n-t.: AHNE 'ALLLEr: FER FARM FLOCK ON JANUARY I

u S DEPA[lliMhT rF ACA-C.I'JLu O IG fH 92 BURLLA Oi 4CG-CULIRAIL EC00MOICS



EGG PRODUCTION PER HEN AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE 1926-30
AVERAGE PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1918-39
PERCENT I I

150 -montha aggregate





130
1 Li C,.' I or.i ,toIolroS Jir, I ) 41

14 0 ------


130 -------


120 --


110 Annual- --


100

90


1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933
*E TlMATED FRCM 2i FIRPTO-. THE MOhTr LAYING


1936 1939


A DEPAErIIMEr W 4GA-CUILIuRE


NEG 155, BUREAU OF aqICALTFuAL ECOGOM-CS


THE NUMBER OF HENS AND PULLETS ON FARMS USUALLY REACHES A PEAK
ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. THE JANUARY I INVENTORY OF HENS AND
PULLETS ON FARMS REACHED THE HIGHEST FIGURE ON RECORD IN 1928. A
DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND FOLLOWED FROM 1928 TO 1935, AND SINCE THAT
TIME THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A LEVELING OFF OF NUMBERS. INCREAS-
ED PRODUCTION PER HEN HAS TENDED TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF DECREASED
NUMBERS ON TOTAL EGG PRODUCTION. INCREASED PRODUCTION PER HEN DUR-
ING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF LATE YEARS.











THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


EGGS
(DOZENS)


7



6



5



4


CASES
(THOUSANDS)

5


4


3


2


1


65 1939 -

I | -
60 JAN APR JUL OCT
JAN APR JUL1 OCT_


- PERCENT


105


100


95
-

90


85

CENTS
PER
POUND





15




S 13




11
CENTS
PER
DOZEN

30



25



20



15
-I
-. 15


* tlDEX IJUMBEF: j5 J f STEDF'C"; ;. EAL VARIATION


M I I
FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS


"1940

FARM PRICE OF EGGS-

FARM PRICE OF EGGS


JAN. APR JULY OCT.
A ON 1ST. DAY OF MONTH


NEG. 35994 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


_NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME*
(1924-29=100)








1939



A average
-'1929-38
t l ,


A average ---
1929-38



RECEIPTS OF EGGS AT
__ j 4 MARKETS




A average
I 1929-38




'1/940

1939 --




HENS PER FARM FLOCK A


0
NUMBER


U 5 DEFAITMENT Oi AGRIJLLTURE





PES-38


THE P POULTRY AITD EG G S I TUAT I 0 I


Su-mmar;,.-

Because of -.n advance in eg r.rices at Chicago, the feed-egg ratio

at that market declined during January. However, the number of egos re-

quired to buy 10C', pounds of poultry ration is e. ected to average higher

than a yvear earlier during th. first half of this yea'.r r-ni somewhat above

the 1929-3.7 average.

A tenuorary drop in market receipts of eggs ihas caused the out-of-

storage movement for sh.ll egzs- to be somewhat above tl.!..t of a year earlier,

Stocks of shell eggs are generally small at this time of year.

The seasonal neak in storage stocks of poultry, reached during the

first week of janutiary, 7Ts 26 percent greater than I year earlier and 35

percent over the 192q9-38 av..rage. A major part of the increase over

January 1939 c.n be attribute -.. to the 125-percent increase in storage

stocks of turkeys. The comparn:tivel.' large markstings of freshly dressed

poultry during recent weeks have resulted in a below-average out-of-storage

movement for poultry.

Most of the suosonal decline in the farm egr rice which ordinarily

occurs bt.tween I7ovembEr 15 and January 15 came this year in the first half

of the o-riod so that the seasonal decline between December 15 and January 15

was smaller than usual. The January 15 farm rice of eggs (18.3 cents) was

5.9 centq below the 1929'-3S average but only 2 cent below the trice on

January 15, 1959, whereas the December 15 farm rice ras 7 cents below that

nf a year earlier. The unfavorable breather during January also helped to

reduce the seasonal decline in farm egg prices from December to January.

The-increased number of lag.ing hens per farm flock on January 1

(35.2 as compared with 82.8 a year earlier) indicates a greater egg production

this year than in 1939, since the seasonal change in size of flocks varies-


-5^-





PES-38


little from year to year.

Prices received by farmers for chickens on January 15 were more

than 1 cent below those of a year earlier and about 2 cents under the 1929-

38 average for that date. Consumer demand is not expected to vary greatly

in the near future and changes in market receipts of both chickens and eggs

will probably be reflected directly in price changes.

F=-D-EGG RATIO

The seasonal rise in the Chicago feed-egg ratio from November 18 to
December 30 was much greater than usual. During this period in 1939 the
number of eggs required to purchase 100 pounds of poultry feed at Chicago
increased by 2 dozen egas, whereas in 1938 it increased by only 0.7 dozen
eggs, and. the 1929-38 average increase during this period was only 0.6 dozen.
Thus a large part of the seasonal rise in the feed-egg ratio, which
ordinarily-occurs during the early mont's of each new year, took place in
the marked advance of late November and December.

The number of eggs required to purchase 100 pounds of poultry ration
at Chicago declined from 6.72 dozens during the first week of January to 5-38
dozens for the week ending January 27. This decline may be only tenoorary,
and the feed-egg ratio probably will average above that of a year earlier
during the first half of 1940.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)
_________Week ending as of 1940
Year : January : February :A-ril:July : Oct.: December
: 6 : 13 : 20 : 27 : 3 : 10 : 17 :27 : 27 : 2. : 21 : 28
:Loz. Doz. loz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. r'D. :-. Doz. Do.-
Average :
1929-38: 4.77 5.13 5.46 5.55 5.63 5.72 5.78 6.68 6.E2 4.62 4.62 4.54

1938 : 5.30 5.40 5.88 6.39 6.68 7.17 6.70 5.85 5.12 3.-79 4.36 4.31
1939 : 5.02 6.12 6.13 6.65 076.65 .76 5.1 6.62 6.62
194o : 6.72 6.66 6.32 5.38

POULTRY SITUATION

Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at the 4 principal markets for the 4 weeks
ended January 27 were 42 percent above receipts for the corresponding period
a year earlier and 22 percent above the 1929-38 average receipts for these
weeks. A slight seasonal decline in receipts is expected during the next
several weeks, but rec31lts are expected to continue larger during the next
few months than a year earlier because of the increased number of hens and
chickens on farms on January 1 and the unfavorable feed-egg ratio.






PES-3S 5 -
Receipts of dressed poultry at 4 markets

(New York, Chicago, Philadelohia, Bostco n)
: ee_________ k ending aT o" l '___
Year : Janu1.ry : FMbruar'. : March : December
__: : 13, : 20 : 27 : 3 10 ::~30 21 : 2"
: 1,000" 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pounds poi.nds nrxds pounds pcunr.s po.urndc pmoindis pounds po'nrids


5, 47 5,553 6,028


A Average
1: 929-38 : 6,11S
*


: ,1i87

: 5,973


3,655
14. 1 8
6,017


4,23
5.7 0
7,,789


3,01g4
6,o ,..


5,SSh 4,ST70


4, 050
4, 657


,59,6 25,324 10,525


~, irA
Li. -


352 17,291
3,86 32,380


6,835
9, 1S7


Poultry storage

Stor.:.ge zstccks of frozen poultry reached the seasonal :,e3k during the
first week of Jit nuiary. Stocks at tn-. 26 m-jor storing, cities on January 27
were 31 percent l-arger than on the c'orr sr.:ndiin,- d.at- in 1lc99 and 41 percent
above th- 1'29-38 av'ra.e for that d;tte. Tlh o'ut-of-stora.e movement, which
began during the '-ee: r.nrei. Jnu..r, 17, h s b..enless than thvt of n year
earlier or the 1'i2-.8 avtra.-. This is probal-v t.i, r,:sult of the in-
creased mar;:rtinr.A o-f frcsn poi:Iltry.

Unit--d Stt.-s stocks o" poultry on Januarry 1 were- 20 percent larger
thni thoc of ::. .-.ar :srliar. The i:ncr.ease was lrgel;. a result of the 125
percent increase in storage stocks of turk;;s, since stoee- of fowls (mature
hens) increased but 1 r, er-ent ov-r a ye.-r earlier and stocks of other types
of poultry declined about pTercent.

Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 m arkcts

:___ Week n Pi r.1z r-s of l4r __
: Storag6 : Sborge mozremG;.-t, J.ur: : Storage
I stocks : : I : 27 : stocks
: Dec. 30 1/: : : : : Jan. 27
: 1,0'' 1,000 1,000 1,COO 1,000 1,000
: rounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds


Average :
1923-38 : 93,456


1~93


101,94
12.,4gil


43,226 -453 -1,339 -1,2 :4


+2,369
@ ,4qo


91,6y6


-7 -2,002 -1,521 100,216
-42S 206 + 256 131,593


IJ For pr'cciini year.

Hat things

R2Torts from conmercil?.l hatcheries indicate- that almost as many chicks
were produced com:nrci-lly'du1.ring Deccm.bcr 1939 as in the sams month a year
earlier. But the decreare in ndv-ince orders on January 1, 1940 is probably
indicative of future reactions. Because of the unfavorable feed-egg ratio,


193S
1939
1940


1.




PES-38 6 -

the demand for chicks is expected to continue to be weak d-uring the next few
months. Except in the Pacific Coast States, the demand for chicks hatched
in December -pparently has come largely from broiler producers.

Chicken prices

Prices received by farmers for chickens advanced from the seasonal
low of 11.7 cents on Dercmber 15 to 12.0 cents on January 15. This repre-
sents a seasonal increase, but the prices are decidedly below average. The
price as of January 15 was 2 cents less than a year earlier and 2.8 cents
below the 1929-38 average. The effect on prices of expected larger sup-
plies of poultry during the next few months compared with a year earlier
will be offset somewhat by higher consumers' income.

Price per pound received by farmers for chickens


Year :Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : Jane : Aug. :
: 15 15 : 15 15 : 1 : 15 :
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Ce-.ts Cents
Average
1929-38 : 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.9 15.5 14.9

193 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 15.7 1L.2
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.4 13.0
1940 : 12.0


Oct.
15 :
,ct.- tS


Iov. :
15 :
Cents


Dec.
1Cents
Cents


11 .6 14.1 13.6


13.C
12.7


13.6 13.6
12.4 11.7


EGG SITCU.TION

Laying flock size

The average size of farm l.ing flocks rench-Jd -'-,at is probably the
seasonal cpa.k of 85.2 birds on Janurry 1. This is the highest figure reached
for any month since January 1934. The Tre-ent high feed prices and low egg
prices may cause farmers to cull tLi.-r flocks r.orc closel:I during the next
few months than they did last year. However, tna size of ln:'ing flocks may
continue above that of :- year earlier during at least the first half of this
year.

The seasonal increase in the nu- '"r cf layers per farm flock from the
low point of 61.3 on Aiuzst 1 to 85.2 cr January 1 represent. an increase of
39 percent compared with the 1929-3S avera-e increase of 35 rErcent from
seasonal low to seasonal high. It is interesting to note that 1'78 and 1939
are the only years during which the seasonal low \as reached on August 1
rather than on September 1.

Average number of Ir-ying hens per farn fleck
on the first day of the month


Year Jan. F.b. : .ar.
: Number NUuzmbc-r !'umb>r


Average
1929-38 : 84.5


77.6
82.8
85.2


83.6 81.0


: Anr. Aug. : Sept. Nov
i'u:-ber Nurtaer IIum-ber N'u'ibej

78.4 63.1 62.5 73.3


78.3 75.- 73.8 59.3 59.8 72.5
82.0 79.8 76.8 61.3 62.1 75.1


1938
1939
1940


Dec.
r Number


79.4

78.0
80.8
79.O
9069


"~~,~~,,~;L;,~ 9r).2,_









Egg production

Egg production pr lay.: r and pcr flock on both December 1 and January 1
was the highest on record f3r those dates. Production per bird was undoubtedly
stimulated considerably by the unusually favcrable weather during November and
December. The comparatively larg; nunb-r of birds per flock contributed to the
record production per farn flock.

Egg production p-r flock *on January 1 was 9 percent above that of a year
earlier and 40 percent above the 1929-38 average. With the increased number of
birds per form flock a.t the present tim, egg production may average higher
during this -:yar than in 1939. However, the unfavorable food-egg ratio may re-
sult in sor. reduction in size cf flocks not previous anticipated.

Eggs laid per 100 herns and pullets of laying age in farm flocks
cn the first da,' of the 7cnath


Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. July Oct. Nov. Dec.
. Number Fumber ]number THulbcrr Hunber Iiunbor Nlumber Number
Average
1929-38 18.7 26.0 33.4 53.5 43.2 25.8 18.5 15.8

1938 :22.7 32.2 42.2 57.9 46.5 28.2 22.3 19.9
1939 24.6 31.9 41.4 56.7 45.E 27.5 22.0 21.5
1940 :26.3


Egg narkctings

Rcceipts of cggc at the 4 principal markctc had been increasing season-
ally until recent vweks. Since Jainuary 6, receipts at these markets have do-
S crossed srno-e'hat as a result of videsprecd -unfavorable wrathor conditions.
Receipts during 1940 may -exceed those: cf 1959 because of the expected larger
egg production.

Peceipts cf ecggr at 4 mari:kets


(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)
Week ending as of 1940
Year : January ; February : March : December
6 : 13 : 20 27 7: 5 10 : 30 : 21 : 28
1 nnn 1T nn 1 nn .1 0nF 1 nn 0 1 nr 1 nln 1 n0n 1 2nn


cases


cases 'cases cases cases- cases


cases


cass ca
cases ca


ses


Average
1929-38: 183.6 191.3 206.7 211.1 218.4 219.0 444.4 144.1 139.0

1938 : 168.5 198.5 231.8 220.1 231.6 215.9 449.5 173.9 171.1
1939 : 211.5 206.8 235.5 229.2 212.6 212.9 437.0 184.1 181.5
1940 : 221.9 209.9 177.7 174.6


PES-38


-7-






PES-38 8

Egg storage

Stocks of eggs are always small at this season of the year. United
States stocks of shell eggs on January 1, however, were nearly twice those of a
year earlier, although they were only about half of the 1929-38 average.
Stocks of frozen eggs were about 15 percent above the figure for January 1,
1939.

The out-of-storage movement for both shell eggs and frozen eggs at the
26 major storing cities during the 5 weeks ended January 27 has been greater
than that of a year earlier. This is probably due to the drop in receipts of
fresh eggs during recent weeks as indicated by receipts at the 4 principal
markets.

Egg prices

Increased production during the late months of 1939 resulted in the low-
est Dccesber 15 farm -gg :ricO f.r the past 30 years. The- farm price of eggs
on J---'. ary i! was 18.3 cents per dozen, .which v.:-: only on--half cent below the
corr5sroncdirn- date of last yc-ir but 5.9 cents blovw the 1929-38 average. Thus,
the dc-Cs.:. in price batwe. n December 15 and January 15 was somewhat loss than
scasonial. rrmajor pa':rt of th: d cline vhich ordinarily occurs bet.'en November
15 and J.aniu.r- 15 ha1i htcn accounted for in the marked dror during Docember.
The unfa--or-bh: i_';.cth-r during January -lso helped to reduce the szr.sonal do-
clin.3 in f.rr prices of cggs. But the total src-sonal decline to date has been
sufficin'-rt I:- cusc. 1ir to follc.i 1939 in having the lowcst January 15 prices
during the r..id since 1910, Ixccpt for 1932 anrd 1934.

As a result of the larger number of hens oand pullets on farms on
January 1 than a y.,e r earlier, c-g supplies during the next fcv: months may be
somewhet grc.t.cr than during t-hc Zsan,: p:.riod in 1935. But th: effect on
prices of an: incrr.-:.sc in siupli..s arts comc._r:d v.ith a yca:_ earlier is expected
to b3 at last partly off'act b:, higher consi..m'nrst income..

Price ,,er dczen- received by f-rn-rs for oegs

: -:.r..: F:b.. .r, : Aur. : Je.. : : :. -,-. : Dec.
: 15 ...: *' : "_, : i5 : 15 : 1- : : 15 : 15
: ;- .t :- Cr:t Cen-L C:-nts CoI nts C:rn+s C1on.ts Cents
Average
1929-38 24.2 20.3 17.. 16.8 16.8 19.9 26.2 30.1 28.8

198 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.9 18.2 21.0 27.1 29.0 27.9
1935 : 18., 16.7 16.0 15.5 14.9 17.5 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : .3

DOMESTIC DEMAND

The rapid improvement in general conditions affecting the doncstic
demand for farm products has been halted. A decline of industrial production
from the all-timo peak reached in December has started, and may continue during









the next few months. During the first part of this period of decline consumer
incomes are -xpected to be supported somewhat by increased general employment
resulting from-, the previous period of business imnrovemont. Furthermore, some
timo is required for consumers to readjust tPl.ir purchases of many items. This
lag of conrun..er demand behind industrial production may be sufficient to result
in little change in domestic demand for poultry and aog-s in the near future.

Index r., bors of ncnagricultural income

(1924-29 = 10, adjuzt-d for sC.so-.al variation)
Year : Jan. 7 ?.;. b M.ar. .10.y July Sept. ct: Nov.' Dec.

Average
1929-8 : 85.2 35.1 85.4 34.3 84.7 84.4 84.5 84.2 84.1

1937 : C2.P 93.8 05.1 96.4 97.1 96.7 96.0 94.1 91.7
1938 : 58.9 8E.1 87.9 86.1 S6.2 88.3 C9.0 89.8 90.3
1939 : 0.6 90.6 91.1 90.5 91.8 93.4 95.4 96.2 l/ 97.2

1/ Pro)liminzary'.

SUIP?LEiC!IiT;'Y DATA

Chargo in offici.nl index of seasonal vEriatic. c f ..rrC egg prices

Since, December 1939 0a n:.w official index of s-ac.nral '-.--'tion for farm
cg, prices h.s Lbcon in use. The n:w ..d.x rcprescntz a ch.c-g from th: use of
the years 1921-50 tc th- yoarc 192C-..7 .: th.. b'.: period.

The two induxc arc, comTpar'- in the fo.llov'ring table. It will be noted
that Hi.ov;mnb--; is tiu pea. morth in th-: n v s,.'rics T'hocros Decnmbe.r formerly was
the peak monTtrh. A c:.c-nd import -.nt diff:rcre i.- th.t the rc--.'isd series does
not show th-. video vL:rir.tie b:tv..-.n s: .senal high and E..asoral low. The entire
series has b:,'n siaocthcd censidcrably.

The cl.ngo v.s made '.dvsable as a r'-zult of the gradual shift in the
monthly production of c.; z and the r. -ultin- change in the c-sonal variation
of egg pric.n The index of scosonr.al variation is used to clculato parity
prices and r.ric-s as a :.rcrnt-go .f Pr-r'lt in c :mcction it. s-veral Govern-
mont activities, including egg purch-roc by th. Fcd-.rc.l Surplus Ccirmeditics
Corporation.


ondes : .: J .Feb o.rApr. ".y :Junc' JulAug.:Sent. Oct.: 1ov.: Dec.
compared : : : : : :

1921-30 basis:12E.0 1ir2.0 74.4 72.6 7?.7 74.2 77.3 36.1 101.1 118.9 143.5 151.2
1929-38 basis:108.6 0.0 70.3 78.3 77.3 77.4 83.8 93.3 108.9 124.0 144.4 134.7


PES-38


* 9 -




li llII Hilll lll lllBI llU I II 11111 1111111111 11151 51U
3 1262 08903 9464











-*.low


. .9r




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