Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
October 1937
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00100

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Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text






UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT CF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

October 1, 1937

THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION



HENS AND PULLETS OF LAYING AGE': NUMBER PER FARM FLOCK ABOVE
OR BELOW 10-YEAR AVERAGE. 1ST DAY OF MONTH. 1925-37
NUMBER I- I I T
10-YEAR AVERAGE. 1925 34


u. DEPARIMENT Or AGRICULTURE[


"II FARM FLOCK S OF CPOP REPORTERS
kEG 31473 BU.aEAU or AGRICULTURAL ECOCMO.


CHICKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER FARM FLOCK ON JUNE 1. 1926-37
NUMBER PERCENT
PER FLOCK Of 10 YR
AV 1926 35


0- 105
140 -

/ \AV 1926- 36 --
134 4100

130 V




120 90



1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938
U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE hIEG 31505 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


fP
I lP'S-10








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34100 )
RECENT T 1 -----PERCENT I
200 SHELL EGGS, OUT-OF-STORAGE CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO
MOVEMENT 193
0 200
150 1936-37 ---- -- 1936


____--______-- 150 k --



1 ,I
'If o '




0 I I l
AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. 50 .... .... i ....i, ...
140 RC IPT DRESE I -
RECEIPTS OF DRESSED POULTRY EGG PRODUCTION PER FLO
AT FOUR MARKETS i
"T20




100 -A1 ~ 100

80 -9

"" -I ,
S80 -
8 L I I I

60 -1 _L __ I ._L_ 70 I IL

FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS FARM PRICE OF EG

100 ---100
I% %
I ,


90 -19- 6 -- 90 -9- -6 "

I 91936

80 --- 80 193--
1937 f

70 / 1 .. ..- I- I I 70 I I I I I


JAN. APR
U 5 DbPARTMENT OF AGPrCULTURE


CK


i1


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC.
REG 32717 BUREAU OF AGRICULYTURL ECONOMICS








T'llITED ST'.AT"S DEAF-T.'.,T C'F A ,I- .LTf-h'_RE
Eurc.un cf AU culturall Economics
ja Ehir..ton
PES-10 October 1, 1937

THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION




By early fall many of the circumstances that will affect the follow-

ing year's poultry situation are sufficiently well developed to warrant a

survey of poultry yresi-ects. Important developments, says the Bureau of

Agricultural E,-c.rnorics, are expec-ed to be: (1) a l.r::, r hatch than in 1937,

resulting from a more favorable feed situation; (2) smaller poultry su plies

in the first half, but greater in the last half, of 1938 than in the cor-

rnpodir.-g period of 1937; (3) higher chicken prices in early 1079 than in

1?3?, due to these smaller supplies, but lower prices in the fall of 1979;

(4) higher egg prices tha :.gho-' 1938, however, than in 1i2., because of

smaller rf.loks and a lower rate of .gg production *:-.rnected. Storage stocks

of egos in 19.59, affecting fall egg prices then,, are likely to be much lower

than in 19',7, due to reduced marketin.,-s. '.hil.-' the production of fall and

winter braile-rs this ,'ear is .xp,-.td to b hca t.. 'ric: is ni.t likely to

te d,.res.sed to a crrc.l': or.'in .-t nt a. :., a : n:r.: Jly smn .ill.r meat

supply.

Turke,- productions in 193' is cstimat-. -Ft i0 perc'enLt lesD tli2n in 1'.?76.

With 193" prices ex-..rct,-d to rxc.,,i those of 1932 -in possibly 193., the

hatch and rroduc-tiorn of turi-e's i. 19 Z..3 ill .1 r1 ro al.;, b. incr: 3-Ad ov-" 1'.3'7

?'ued Situation

Total production of tn. four te-i grinsr, -,rn, oats, tbrley, .ir.d

grain :c'rg~um in 197.7 ,vill be th,.; lar:-. t sin.c l-.'::'. Since th-. carry-c.vLr





FEE-1C 4 -

from 1936 was small the total supply will r;nt be so large as the production

estimates L:culi indicate. ;Weat production '.as also lar.e and the supply

available for poultry feeding w.;-ill be larger than in recer.t years. With other

liv-st-?. nua-trs very lw, the supply of g'sin per 'rain consuLming animal,

wita fet. ex.-e.tions, **ill be larger than in any of the past 15 years. Supplies

per animal ',all be unlusually lar-e in some of the Corn Belt States A'here live-

stock .nur.bers 'jere -reatly reduced.

The relationship of feed prices to e,: pricr-s is of importance to

1oultryrymen in several respects: (1) in the fall it influences the n-umber of

pullets, saved for tre laying floobi; (2) in the spring it influenr'es the size

of the hatch: 15) throughout the year it ma;. influence culling, and it may have

a bearing. upor the rate .3i roi.uction of G:-. During most of 193? about 50

percent more c*-':s tHan av- ra.e ';-ere rcc.uired to buy 100 pounds s of feed. In

September the feed- g:g ratio was only :0 percent above the 1925-34 average and

was below 19536. During the first half ci 1939 t.hr- frcd-:'' ratio is expected

to be GuI"ii lowe-r t.a.n in th,' same months of 1937 and r..'a -o bclo', the 1925-34

avcrace. In other w-jords thL ftLd situation n.'-xt erring v. 1]. br- much r:.ore

favorable to producers than in 1937.


T,o- f,-cd-zgJ ratio at Chicago, by weeks, average 1925-34, annual
1936-537

Dozens of eg -s r Euired to bu- 100 pounds of poultry. rations
Year i: '.k .ndercd as of 1' 537
:Jan. :Mar.: May:June:Aug. :Sept. :S.pt. :.-pt. :Sc. t.: Oct. : !07ov.: Dec.
: 9 : 3 : 1 : 5 : 7 : 4 : 11 : 19 : 25 : 2 : 6 : 4
:Doz. Loz. Doz. Doz. Dcz. EDo:. DoC.. Doz. Doz. Doz. Eoz. Doz.
Average
1925-34 : 4.06 6.20 6.43 6.98 6.38 5.63 5.52 b.31 5.20 5.02 3.97 3.64

1936 : 5.-2 5.11 6.01 5.60 7.71 7.99 7.74 7.73 7.59 7.27 5.85 5.92
1937 : 7.76 C.17 10.80 11. :3 8.90 8.17 R.23 7.66 7.30







FES-lO -

Spring hatchirng

EeCausr ,':f t..is i':.er f.,d-e- c ratlo -x e-ted i', early '? an irn creae
in the r-atc. o.'--r 1''77 i. l1 } l... T'..?t jir.,ing floc.:. likely to thF-
lowest of rccr, J sin & 1'.r.5, wi l1 c ip'.jt ,.rt -n 7t ir:ul t i ng inrrer-se
hat ing ;LIt:hin: r-at. ve to t `.ri f -- a.re snzi wn in t nc fiCll rin
table.

,Chirks arn', :y.'c n;- c- i enz in f r iri flc.S. June 1, .-r. sal-ble chi l:s5
iLetche, in onmri ri.r -til .at.heri:.- '-
1i924 = 10'0;

Item 199 1:, '. I1 -1952 l'.^ 1934 c 1. 1:C 1'
: o'- PF.r- PF r- Y-r- r'=- ?'.= ter- -:r- Fer-
n: -Lt .-*'.t Cert *' .t cent cent cent cent cent
Yount. chii -ens :
onr farrs ..... 1.11. 117.1 102.3 10.1.0 111.5 100.0 99.4 110.9 94.7

Co'nvr.rc-ial ha1th: 11 .5 142. l',4.- 10,,.2 11il.0 100.0 124.7 156.1 127.2

Poultry Srk-.etinr :s

Rec, ,t=1. ,or ,ires3 ', rmo ilt ry a-t th,. c', r Fr '.t "- .,'*.-:c" Chi ,' ,
Bos-ton, an.d Fni idElr.hi'.. .r 1 .r- r in t-- first ilf ci 1:'" : t :n a -ir
before. Tnis is r'rtI '- *x'l:inrL., ,- t c- ..-ir r out -crf-:tor [ r!,'-v,.r.iAt L,-an in
19? 6 and partly by t'.L rt.t ." tion' in fio?. si: th-n ir. i126'. Be us
of thc st..all flo-..s noj an t. ," 11.::t i't 'li, ". .- i 1= :o t j l :- .l .f 1937 to
the middle. of 197'-_ .. li!: 3y to -: ~e : t'n in t1:- ."rr,:spcndi, n pricls ri
yjar uarli -r. L'Ca..S-. of' t'.c ri'o. cti.. !.c ivi-r h .t ir. i'.'.8, r.c.-lts in the
last hall. :,f that :,.-r -r lir. 1 .. .eed tIi'-.r.. 1,i L 7.

Receipts of dire-e:4 r'poiltry qt '.:7 York, v'.:r -e 1.C.:5-34, rrinnuil

:,'J.' erdIE, 3a f __-_ _
Year Jiy: AL! : AU A, ". : .,-. : A :-ert. :.:e-t. : tSe t. : Se-t.
3: : 7 : 14 : .1 : ::q : 4 : 11 : 1i : ?5
: i,0C l,C' i '' ,C 1 DC 1 ,00," Gu0: 1,000 .., 1, ': ],,'.,.0
:,c'nrids pcolr.iJ I oj:,D ts r. inds C's:. o 1i: d f .n i- pncund s pounDri r :unnJs
Ave raf:e
1925-34 : 3,05 ,005 3,l-,150 1 ,.0 ,, .1,i" 3,2Zi 3,5.94 3,.22

1936 Z: ,729 3,92i 4,043 4,Ce6 Z3,9C4 3,L39 3,7,6 3,595 4,154
1937 : ," D 3,C79 ,,1. _5 i ,19c7 3 ,,CO ,' 677 z,11 3,9.7 7,? 7 8


Fall and winter brollers

Because cf th-. p.rosnective snall marketing of'' I'ani broilers in 13.7"
and thp less-than-a'/vrad.e seasonal incr..ea3e iji broiler storage stocks, the
prices of fall and winter broi-ers are exinected to remain high relative
to the same months of recent year. 1'Thile ptol.wu'tion of fall and irnter





PES-10


broilers may be the largest of record, the price-depressing effect of the
larger production is likely to be offset to a great extent by the effect
of small supplies of most meats.

Poult ry st-rn-ge

Stock- of frozen poultry in storage when the peal: is reached in
early 1936, *r* expected to be much less tnan in 1937 but above the 1925-34
averaLge. Tre increase in stocks from September 1 to February 1, is not
likely to be so great as average because of reduced receipts in this period.
On the other hand, September 1 stocks are 2C million pounds above average,
due to a he:'v;' carry-over from the 1936-37 storage season. Some of this
carry-over sock is reported of poor quality and will not have a great com-
petitive effect on farm poultry prices.

United States storage stocks of frozen poultry


: : Into storage .
Year Spt. 1 : Sept. 1-Feb. 1 Feb. 1
: Million Million Hillion
pounds promunds pounds

1925-2'6 to
1234-35 : 42,584 75, 'C'4 117,5C8

1936-37 ....: 66,488 112,816 178,304
1937-38 .... 63,760


Poultry' consumption

Consumption of poultry in the first half of 1937 was greater than
in the first half of 1936. This is indicated by (1) the exceptionally
large out-of-storage movement in this period, and by, (2) a greater reduction
in ia,, ing flocks from January 1 to July 1 than was the case in 1936. The
incrcase in poultry canning was not enough to offset these two indications.

Consumption of poultry in the last half of 1937 will very likely be
ies3 tnan in the same period of 1936, largely because of smaller marketing.
With storage stocks on January,, 1, 1938, expected to be much less tnan a
year earlier, consumption in the first half of 1938 will probably continue
low. Consumption in the last half of 1938 may be greater than a year earlier,
because of the probable larger supplies by that time.

Turkey production and prices

Thrl:ey production in 1937, as indicated by the number of turkeys on
hand on September 1, is expected to be about 10 percent less than the record
crop of 1936. Ma-iny small producers -and some large ones have discontinued
production entirely but large increases have been made by commercial producers
in some States. Much of the variation in numbers on hand in different parts
of tne country reflects the feed situation in those regions, some of the
biggest reductions coming in drought areas.


- 6 -




PES-10


Reduction from 1936 in turkeys on hand September 1

: Reduction : : Reduction
Division I from 1936 : Division : from 126

i Pe : recent Fercent

New England ............: : East South Central ..... :
Middle Atl"rntic . Pacific Coast ..........: 6
South Atl-i-ltic ..........: 1 West IU ..rth Centr,-l .....: 18
West South Central .....: 2 : mountainn .. ... ........ : 23
East 17orth Central .....: 4 Total ................: 9.5


Since the cost of feed with which the 1937 urkey- crop will be finished
for market iill be lower than in 1936 -,n since the price received for the
turke'3 will in gener:.l be higher, the production of turkeys for sale in the
fall of 1939 is c:-eected to be increased.

W: ile thie smaller qrop in 1937 will tend to raise turkey prices in
the fall and early winter of 1937 above those of 1936 and possibly above
those of 19.5, the larger hatch likely next year will probably bring turkey
prices in the fall of 1938 below those of 1937. Any anticipated small in-
cra7se in consumer incomes would be expected to offset this decline to some
extent.

United States farm price of turkeys per pound


Year : Oct. Nov. Dec. Jrn.


: Cents
Average :
1925-34 : 20.3

1935-36 ....: 15.9
1C36-37 ....: 15.9


Cents


19.9
15. C


Cents


21.3.
14.3


Cents


19.9
14.1


Chicken prices

WVith fewer poultry, both turkey and cnick.ens, to be marketed in the
last quarter of li,37. than a year earlier, chicken prices in this period
are exoccted to exceed those of the some months s of 1936 and possibly to
be above tne 1i9T,2-54 average. In most ycars chicken prices decline in
the last half of tie year. But this .:'i r, prices are advancing.

Farm price of cnickcns per pound

Ye-r J Jan. M: r. M: July Au. Sept. Nov.

C ents Cents Cents Ccnts Cents Cents Cents
Ave rage
1925-34 : 16.8 17.5 18.3 17.8 17.3 17.3 16.2

1935 ........ 12.4 14.2 15.7 14.0 14.1 15.4 15.9
1936 ........: 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.1 15.1 14.9 13.2
1937 ........: 13.4 1-4.4 14.3 15.3 16.8 17.4


---




PES-10


- 8 -


While poultry storage stocks in the first. ialf of 1938 will probr.bly
be less than in the first h-.lf of 1937, the effect of this on chicken prices
may be offset someahr't by, a possible small decline in consumer income.
Though chicken prices in this period rre expected to be greatly above those
of 1937 they are not likely to exceed the 1925-34 average.

In the -last half of 1938 the effect on chicken prices of the prospective
increase in hatchings will probably be partly offset by possible advances in
consumer income. Chick-en prices then ore expected to be somewhat below those
of t-he last half of 1937. There is no b.sis no7 for anticipating a seasonal
decline in this period greatly different from average.

:Tcn-..ricultural income, average 1925-3.4, *annual 1936-37

(Se.s'illy corrected indexes, 1924-29 = 100)
Year Jan. Mar. JunLe July Aui. Sept. Oct. Dec.
: : o; : "__. : 9 ___



1925-34 91.0 -:,'.4 E9.7 S3.8 D 3.6 89.6 9.4 S9.4 83.8

1936 ....... : 81.5 F.:.5 84.1 35.1 -36.8 87.4 37.9 59.8 100.9
1937 ....... : 92.9 9 5.3 *6.9 .91 9 98.4


L_ lf 1.floe: size-

,i.L: number of he. -ind ruliuts of living 'i'e er farm flock ordina.rily
decreases by about 25 .,--rcent from J-'na ry 1 to September 1. In 1937 this
decline was 29 percent, bringinr.g laying flock size down to the level of 1936,
while in January it had been 4 i:,ercent ,reater.

Hens and pullets in farm flocks on tne lst da,- of month

Year Jan. : Mar. : June Aug. Sept. Oct. Dec.

::jribcrs li 1amb-rs AUnbers ITamoub rs l;uimbcrs Numburs -ujibers hlumibers
Average :
1925-34 : 87.5 84.7 77.4 73.4 66.8 66.1 70.4 S1.9

15 ....: 78.3 75.8 69.1 65.1 59.2 58.5 65.1 76.6
1936 ....: 80.6 76.7 70.5 66.5 6:'.0 59.9 66.9 79.1
1937 ....: 84.2 80.0 73.1 63.5 62.1 59.9


The size of t:ie laying flock on Januar: 1 is largely influenced by
the number of youn, chickens on h.ind 6 months earlier and by the feed-cgg
r...tio i:I the: li..t nlIf of the year. The. effect of the 19 percent reduction
from 1936. in youns- chic!:ens. m;:i':g fever pullets available to add to the lay-
ing flock, Wvill be only slightly, offset by a somcihct more favorable (lowrir)
fei-,..;- r:.tio t,_:.n in 19.36 so that the laying flock on January 1, 1938, is
expected to be much smaller than in 1936 and probably smaller than in 1935.






PES-10


With a r-ore favorable feed situation in 1938 than 19.-7, fro-i the stfrnd-
point of the nrc.ducer, it is expected tht,t the laying flock will be built up
by less rigorous calling and by heavier hatchir... Layinr flock size in the
past hns fluctuated quite re-,ilnrly in 3-year cycles, the last low point being
in the winter of 1934-35 (see cover ch-rt)'. It seems likely: that the winter
of 1937-38 vill rrrk another such low point and that by the fall of 1938 playing
flocks rjill be lar-er than in the fall of 1937.

Rite of' nr'rduiction

Fe';or[ble weather in most of the season of hea'.'vy -roduict ion, more rigid
culling than usual, and a laying flock with a high .'ror-ortion of pullets
resulted in an exceptionally large number of eggs laid per hen in the period
Ja-in.v'.ry 1-Seprtermber 1, 19.7',. In 1938, 'ith culling probably less ri-rid -.nd
with smaller -rortortior. of oullcts than in 19,37 the r.te of -orodiction.I is
liiel. to be lo,,er thnr, in 1?7?.

Eg~zs laid per 100 hcns= and pullets of l1rinfg i,-e in f-r.i floc.c3

IYear Jr-n. : r. : a July Sent. : Total : Cot. Dec.
--------- "___n.-Sapt;_:
Aver:, e : limber ;IiJincr 1 nrrtber I.iuiber ilJu,,ib r 17.imter .Tuimibcr 1iu-rnber
19b?':' ...: 16.5 53.4 55.1 42.? 32.4 348.0 ::5. 12.9

1936 ........: I. l .1 :.5 .5 44." 31.4 349.5 25.1 16.0
1937 ........ : 2.0 39.2 5?.8 44.4 36.1 370.9


Eg marr::c t ir,-s

Lrr r r flocks r d -... icr=--nsed rs te cf n roduct ic 'rn c caused r-nll.-?eti-L.-.=. ir.
the first 8 rmoptcht of 1'7.? to be Dslihtly Irr- er th-n it. 19.'6. Durir. the
re-aind r of '12?, rmr'-:eti:_. fror, fresh eg c:rodi.ction r.re likely to be less
than in- 1936 be ,i.se of ,-.11cr fioc.-:s -nd lo-er .rice". E rc recei)t ?t t-.e
four narl:ct 'lk:v. Yot':, Chica.o, Philaiclhia, ar.d Bo-ton) ho..ever, .,1 one.-
thit of ? 5"ear .,, b-ec:i e of the ircls-ion of e. s from the lar:e 1to?:s 1i.
cold store c outside cfi t,-ese cities. T-o 1:',in- the n-o-.r-:jert of tnese stoct:e
into ccrnsur tion, mrrc:etinr.s _ftcr mi---v'i.ter -ill reflect curre:.t crc.,'uctior.
anr therefore, urt il the f11. of a1
Rccei .ts of elgs at Uevr Yor::, aver--'e 19?,-34, r.n.'.u l l'Jr-.3?


Year J:uly

1,000
.1 E.iC '
: cai, s
Av. 192.5-34 : 160.0
1936 ..... : 176.7
1937 ... : 151.5


'.ee&k ende1 .s of 1937
: Aug. : Auj. : Aug. : Au-:. : Se-t.:
: ? : 14 : 21 : 21 : 4 :
1 1,00 '0 1, 0 10 1 ,'000'
c *- s c se. s cases c,! ?s cares
116.6 114.3 111.7 100.2 104.3
114.0 107.5 113.2 12:.2 112.9
111.5. 98.7 9'. 3 l0 2 39.6


Sert.: Se .t.: Sept.
11 : 19 : '"5


1, 000
cases
104.6
101.3
'7,0


1,030
,1 ej C'

100.6
93.6
869.3


1,000
c0ses
101. 3
87.1
.--9.3


- 9-





PES-10


- 10 -


E"- stora-e

The .mid-sunmer -eak in cold storage stocks of shell and frozen e-gs in
1937 was about 25 percent above that of .?.76i a.:d ha.s only been exceeded in 1927,.
This was largely a result of an increased su-ply of e rs and a somewhat
stronger incentive to store than in 1926. These i..fl'.ences are likely to be
reversed in 1933, production probably beinj lo-.er than in 1937 and the storage
incentive likely to be weakened by a less profitable storage season than 1935-36.
Hence, storage stocks in 1938 are exnoected to be much less thai in 1937.

Cold stora-e holdings and out-of-storage movement of ecags
at 26 markets, r.veraje 192'5-34, annual 1936-37

Store.-e stocks ; Out-of-storage movement, : Storage stocks
Year July : Sept. week ended as of 19.37 : Set. 25
: 31 4 :Septll:Sent. 18:Seupt 25 :
1,000 1,0 1,00 1 1,0,00 1,000 1,000
: cases cse s csses claes c.ses cases
Shell eggs
Average
1325-34 : 6,433 5, 'n 162 201 227 5,400

193 : 5,067 4,311 162 170 302 4,277
1937 : 5,917 5,682 124 2.31 263 5,064
Frozen eggs :
1936 2,017 1,980 46 ?5 72 1,737
197 : 2,917 2,300 31 52 40 2,677


The ir- mediate effect of this year's lar-e stcra-re stock has been somewhat
accent-ated by- a slow out-of-st,:.ra.-e movement d.*ring Aukaust and early September.
i'ovemert since nrid-Seo-te-.iber, however, has been at a much heavier rate, relative
to earlier '.'rars.

Eag consu r.tion

The- su'r.ly of czjs available for consur'iption was greater durin- the
first :onr.ths of 1937 than for the corres-ondinr period in 1936, production
probably exceedin- that of 'he sane period in 193.6 by about 7 million cases.
The stoc': of -nell and froze-. e -..s in cold storage on Auuist 1, 1937, exceeded
that in 19'6 by about 3 milliDn cases. Part of this increase in ec-c's for
storage ".s offset, however, by th.e smaller hatching requirements than in 1936.
On the whole, therefore, consu:xntion exceeded that of 1936 probably in almost
every month of the r.riod.

During the re:.,'ainder of 19.37 smaller production than in 19.36 will be more
than offset by the increased storage stocks so that consuiTmtion is eroected to
continue Pbove last year well into thc winter. Lower consumption seems likely
in 1938 tlar, in 1937.






PES-10


E p prices

The larc, ctorae stoc'-s -v. tended to keep eFT prices in the fnll of
1937 below those of the sa..e a.onts of 1q36. The s as-.onal neak in 11ovember or
Dece',ber is rnot likely to be as hig-h ns year earl:or.

Farm rice of eggs rer dozen

Yo-r J-n.. 1:-r. I'-y July Aug. Sept. Nov,

Cents Cents Cents Cento Cents Cents Cents
Avern e
1925-.74 31.0 19.3 18.7 20.0 22.0 25.7 35.4
19'35 25.0 18.6 21.4 21.7 22.7 26.4 30.1
1936 22.3 17.5 18.1 20.0 22.4 24.5 32.5
1937 2.3.1 19.9 17.9 19.4 20.4 22.9



WTith norm-l weather conditions this :'inter, the sr.1ller p'roluction of
eggs is expected to -:een prices -bove tlhosc of 1936-37. Abnorm-.l ,,we-.ther, either
mild or severe, :?ill arobqbly cause sh-ro te'-,jornry fluctu -tions. A lorre
stor-'-e corry-over on Janu"-ry 1 '.ould tend to degrees egg prices to, the 1937
level, v'hile .nr. nver-.ze carry-over x.ould tend to. kepn -rices well nbove 19C7.

While the slight decline anticiinated in consumrners' incomes in the spring
of 1933 will offset to come extent the effect of lower production, er': orices
then are expected to be above those of th-e s3-rin, of 1937. With sm-ller storage
sto:!:s in orosn.ect by. Aujinust 1, 1935', than a yenr earlier -n'd with a slight
advance in consumers' income urob-ble, e-g prices in the f-l of 1-33 arc
expected to increase even more over 1.?:7 prices r nd nrob-bbly to be hi her than
in 1936.


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Ji'ERSr1 OF FLORA


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