Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
June 1951
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00097

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text

L4 '\FOR RELEASE
/ l- JULY 11, A. M.
-, JULI 51 =


NATION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL E NOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

RH JUNE 1951


A Minnesota study of costs and returns in
egg laying flocks emphasizes the importance
of high egg production per bird. Since out-of-
pocket costs principally feed increase only
slightly with increases in egg production per
layer, it is obvious that the most favorable
spread between gross returns and operating
costs should be expected from flocks with high
average egg production per bird.


The largest part of the feed intake of a
laying bird is for body maintenance; the addi-
tional nutritive requirements for egg production
are relatively small. It has been estimated :hat
after the body-maintenance requirements are
met (as little as 60 pounds per year of typical
poultry ration), additional requirements are less
than 2 pounds of feed per dozen eggs.


1 76 7 T


THE


PES- 153


VALUE OF EGGS PRODUCED AND

PRINCIPAL COSTS PER LAYER
In Relation to Rate of Lay,
160 Minnesota Farm Flocks, 1949
$ PER LAYER
Cost of:
Death loss 6 depreciation-7.0 Value of eggs
8 Feed consumed ..............-- produced









Under 150 150-179 180-209 210 and over
EGGS LAID PER LAYER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 48118 XX BUREAu OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS








2 -
Sp0l017 an ON ItMlo& a-2- t S
Ihe poultry eM egg eituation at, a glanm


item




Tam production .....................

Aarge number or layers on ferm....

Rate of lay per hem .................

Apparent civillan per capital
disappearance ........ ............

Froumn a production ...............

Drled eB production ..............


Price receiveT by farmre ...........

Price received by farmro a es
persantage of parity ..............

tetail price (BAZ)...................

Igg-fed price ratio ................

Stoote:

Shell .............................

rozen ................ ...........

Dried .............................

Chicle hatched by commercial
hatcherIes ........................

Chicks and yjngs chclkens on farm ..

Farm price of poultry ration ........




Price received by farmer far.
cblelcke live ....................

Price received by farmers asn a
percentage of parity ..............

Detail price of chickens,
dmeeed (BA) .....................

Price received by rarmr foar
turkey, live ................... ..

Stock

Poultry, excludLng turkeys ........

Turkey ........... .... ....... .


: nth : : Month : Ao : : rieria
: i nt A :t : r : 19I current situattor


13 Aa w 1 1 o ---------: --er t
to



Mil. do&. April 519.- 535.7 526.5 M: y k97.2 516.8 513.0 ely to year's rate r

Millions : Aprtil 357.6 36k 1 35h 9 a: y 338.5 342.5 336.9 3

Ee : April 17.4 17.7 17.8 :: M 17.6 18.1 18.3


AMge April 32.2 36.0 36.7 a:: 30.9 33.5 3t.5

M1il. lb. : April 72.4 64.2 70.1 a: sy 77.0 58.0 74.8
:3olely for careercil ar
Mil. lb. April --- 12.9 2. :: y ... 19.1 3.2 military req-irererts;
price support a factor
la:ast year.
Ct. prdos.: M 1 31.5 29.f kiS.2 Jnim 32.7 30.1 lk..7


Percent :ay 96 68 98 ,June 08 67 94 :

Ct.per doz.: April 12.9 47.1 62.1 M k43 6 kh.8 6k.

Lb. feea : ay 10.8 8.2 U.? JUID 1.1.2 8.3 11.? : Favorable to producers



Thcus.oaes: May 1 1,015 2,147 973 June 1 6,052 3,11I 2,09k :.
:: )'rsual aemaor peak la
Nil. It. : ay 1 155.5 155.1 109.3 :: June 1 210.3 179.7 160.7 :)July I or August I

MI. 1t.. : y 1 --- 79.9 58.9 June 1 --- 80.2 52.0


Millions April 298.k 281.5 319.4 M:: y 23.3 21.6 26.5

Uloane : aj 1 418.6 40.1 l.25.0 J: Un 1 570.0 509.1 549.3

Dol.per owt.: May 2.95 3 2 k-.0o:: June 2.97 3.61 3.-5:





:Ct.per lb. : Ma 23.4 22.5 28.9 June 23.5 22.1 27.3


Percent May UI 78 92 ::Juno Uf3 76 87


:Ct per It. April 42.? 53.3 56.5 :: 4y 12.8 52.6 56.8


Ct. per It.: May 27.3 27.1 35. :: June 27.0 0.8 35.8:



Mil. It. : H 1 60.4 74.2 87.3 :: Jun 1 66.1 59.5 75.9 :)
:)Approachlrg seanor loh
Mil. It. : May 1 6.8 92.8 59.9 :: JunO 1 42.3 77.1 b8.2 :)


Chloken-feed price ratio ............ Lb. feed aay

Turkey-feed price ratio .............: Lb. feed : May

Average weeoil receipt of pcult.r at:
Control Western Primary Market, :
per plant ........................ Thoua. lb.: April

Average weekly placement of chicks :
in 7 broiLer aeau ......... ..... MIllm : April


8.1 6.2 7.2 :: June

9.2 7.6 8.8 :: June



6.4 11.5 17.3 :: May


--- 7.5 10.1 : May


10.7 16.8 26.5


--- 7.0 9.9


Toroemaslag esonIlly


d.





P3S-153


TE HE P OUL-TRY A 'D EGG S I T "ATI 0 N


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, June 28, 1951



Strong demand, both current and prospective, continues to dominate
the price outlook for eggs and poultry.

Egg prices to farmers, which dropped slightly from mid-,May to mid-
June, have resumed their seasonal increase. Chicken prices in early June
were lower than a month earlier. This resulted from seasonally-increasing
marketing of both young and mature chickens from farm flocks, and large
broiler marketing from the record placements of 3 months ago*

Under Amendment 13 to the General Ceiling Price Regulation, a freeze
in maximum egg prices is no longer automatic when prices received by farmers
reach 100 percent of parity. IIeanwhile, the seasonal advance has brought
egg prices practically to the December 19-January 35 maximums which are the
basis for the current controls on handlers.

Cold-storage stocks of egos are near the seasonal peak. June 1
reports put the 1951 stocks of shell eg&:s on that date at a near record
low for the month. Stocks of frozen eg.s were 11 percent under last June.
A continuing heavy in-movement suggests that frozen stocks. may approach
last year's level.

fMore chickens are being raised for farm flock replacement this year
than last. June 1 estimates of the number of ynung chickens on farms are
8 percent higher than a year earlier. This suggests that the number of
potential layers on January 1, 1952 will be larger than at the beginning
of this year.

P~ & Price Near Parity;
Price Freeze at Parit,
FNo Longer Automatic

Egg prices weakened in the second half of Ilay, but the higher grades
had recovered by late June so that their prices then were near the highest
since February. Further seasonal increases -re in prospect for the coming
months. The mid-May United States average farm eg: price was 45.2 cents
per dozen, 98 percent of parity.




''. '


- 3-




JUNE 1951


Table 1. Highest quotations in price-control base period, December 19, 1950- -
J'anuary 25, .951, for selected grad eaot ewgg,. _oltoken, ag turkeys at
various markets compared with most recent available quotations
: : Highest quotation : Most recent
Description : Market "December 19-January 25 : tvailable-tuotlon
of : : inclusive a
commodity : : Date : Price : Date : Prioe
: : Date Price Date Price


Eggs, per dozen
Nearby, white, extra
fancy, heavy weights


:New


Nearby, brown, extra
fancy. heavy weights ... :New

Mid-western, mixed zoolors,:
Extras (60 percent A's,
45 bsO) ............. :New

Minimum 10 percent AA's,
white, 48t-50 lbs. .....:New

Minimum 10 percent AA's,
brown, 48z-50 lbs. ..... :New

Extras, minimum 60 percent:
A's, white 45-48 lbs.... :New


.:Dec. 20,22
York 1/-and 28,29
:
York 1/:Dec. 28,29



York ./:Dec.20,21


York 2/:Dec. 19-22
:inclusive

York 2/:Dec. 20


York 2/:Dec. 22


Large, mixed colors, : :
Extras (60 percent A's) :Chicago 2/ :Dec. 28,29

Large, Grade A ........... Los Angeles:Dec. 21.

Chickens, dressed, per pound:
Iced, Del-Mar-Va, :
21 lbs. average ....... :New York %/:Jan. 23-25

Dry-packed fowl, :
48-54 Ibs. per dozen.... :New York l/:Jan. 23-25
:inclusive
Fresh, ice-packed, :
22 lb. average, heavy :
breeds................:New York 2/:Jan. 23-25
:inclusive
Dry-packed hens, :
48-54 Ibs. per dot., : :
heavy breeds............ :New York 2/:Jan. 23-25
:inclusive
Turkeys, dressed, per lb. : 1 ;.
Northwestern, top-grade, :New York I/:
young toms, 24 Ibs. and over :Jan. 23-25
U. 8. Grade A, young tome. : inclusive
24-26 lbs. :New York 2/:Jan. 23-25
4mnn~ia4nr


1/ As quoted by the Urner-Barry Company. 2/ As quoted
Market News Service.


62 June 26


61 June 26


57 June 26


1 61-62


June 26 -62-64


59-60 June 26 63-65


58-59


51-52

542-57



33i-34


June 26 55-58


June 26 54-54I

June 22 57-58



June 26 34-341


361-37 June 26..


38-40


33-34 June 26 34-341



362-37 June 26 39j;-iD


45-


June 26 56-57
June 26 55}-56i


by the Federal-State


; n li Ye


- 4 -





PES-153


i 5-


Under Amendment 13 to the General Ceiling Price Regulation issued on
May 28, positive action by the Director of Price Stabilization will be nec-
essary to establish a new freeze or specific ceilings on egg prices when
they reach 100 percent of parity. Before the amendment vent into effect, a
freeze was automatically required when prices reached 100 percent of parity.

While the May 28 amendment also applies to chickens and turkeys, it
is of more immediate interest to buyers and sellers of eggs because egg
prices in recent months have been close to parity. On the other hand,prices
received by farmers for chickens and turkeys have been substantially below
parity.

The seasonal adjustment factors applied to prices received for eggs
in the coming months will rise, reflecting the normal seasonal rise in egg
prices. Therefore, increases in egg prices per dozen will not result in
proportionate increases in the seasonally adjusted price as a percentage of
parity. During March, April, and May the seasonal adjustment factor in the
parity computation was 87 percent of the average annual level. For June,
the seasonal adjustment factor rises to 90. Seasonal adjustment factors
for the months beyond June 1951 have not yet been announced, but July and
the first few months following will show increases. When announced, they
will cover the period through June, 1952. The new series is regularly pub-
lished, upon its release, in the Poultry and_ EZ Situation.

Chicken Plentiful:
June Prices Lower Than in Early May

Average chicken prices declined from mid-May to mid-June, as market-
ings increased. The decline was sharper for hons than for broilers.
Broiler prices seem to have recovered slightly from the lowest levels
achieved after the decline, but hardly any increase has been shown in
prices for hens.

Chicken meat supplies have been increasing and will probably increase
further in the next few months. The pressure of these supplies will at least
partly offset upward price pressures from the continued high general level of
demand. The demand for poultry meat is stimulated in part by the current
level of red meat prices.
The short term outlook for large supplies of chicken is based on the
expected continuation of the normal seasonal pattern of marketing of farm.
chickens, and the approach to marketing age of large numbers of broiler chicks
placed since the first of May

The seasonal pattern for marketing chickens from farm flocks is shown
in table 2. The three "or four months following June have been consistently
marked by larger chicken marketing than the months immediately preceding.
Because of the well-defined changes from trough to peak, seasonal aspects of
supply are of primary importance as a short-run price-making factor for
farm-produced chickens. For "the year as a whole. the supply of farm-pro-
duced chickens will be in proportion to (a) the number of mature birds on
farms on January 1, 1951 and (b) the number of chickens raised. The
immediate outlook can be gauged by June 1 numbers of chickens on farms.







The number of mature birds on farms at the beginning of the year
was 3 percent smaller than a year earlier and the laying flock on June 1
was 2 percent below June 1; 1950. On the other hand, the fact that there
were 8 percent more young chickens on farms June 1 indicates an increase
over last year in the number of chickens raised. Consequently the supply
of farm-produced chickens for 1951 probably will be slightly larger than
in 1950.

Since broiler placements I/ in the first five months of 1951 were
31 percent higher than in the same period of last year, the supply of
chicken meat forthcoming in the rest of 1951 will be larger than during
this period last year. Current marketing are being supplemented by stor-
age holdings of chickens which total about 16 million pounds higher than
a year ago. Storage holdings at this season of the year are normally near
the low point which usually occurs in July or August.


Table 2.- Farm chickens i/: P
annual total;


pounds marketed monthly as a percentage of
U. S. 1943-50, by regions 1950


Year,
region
a


1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

N. Atl.
E.N.C.
W.N.C.
8. Atl.
S. Cent.
Western


Jan.

Per-
cent

3.4
4.6
3.9
4.7
3.6
4.1
4.0
4.1

6.5
3.2
1.7
5.7
4.2
7.2


Feb.:


Per-
cent

3.2
3.5
3.3
3.9
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.6

5.5
3.1
1.7
4.3
3.8
6.3


Mar.-


Per-
cent

3.9
4.5
3.7
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.9

5.8
3.1
1.6
5.1
5.5
6.3


Apr.: May June' July. Aug.: Sept.:

Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
cent cent cent cent cent cent


4.5
5.1
4.6
5.7
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.1

6.1
4.3
3.2
5.9
8.0
6.3


6.3
7.3
6.6
8.0
7.0
7.2
7.4
6.8

8.1
5.6
4.3
8.5
11.0
7.3


9.0
9.6
8.4
9.2
8.3
9.0
8.9
9.3

9.2
8.6
9.0
10.0
11.6
7.8


11.1
10.5
10.6
11.3
10.8
10.5
10.2
9.4

8.9
9.2
9.0
9.8
11.0
.10.3


11.9
12.1
12.4
12.5
12.8
12.6
11.9
12.3

10.7
13.4
14.4
10.5
9.6
11.2


13.9
12.8
14.0
13.9
13.7
14.5
14.3
14.3

11.9
16.5
18.6
11.2
8.2
11.1


Oct.

Per-
cent

13.6
13.4
15.0
13.1
14.6
12.9
13.3
14.3

10.5
15.2
20.6
11.6
8.7
9.9


Nov.: Dec.

Per- Per-
cent, cent


11.3
9.8
10.3
7.9
10.5
9.7
9.6
9.7
8.4
11.2
10.1
9.2
9.4
8.5


7.9
6.8
7.2
5.7
6.6
7.0
7.3
7.2

8.4
6.6
5.8
8.2
9.0
7.8


i/ Excluding broilers from specialized enterprises.


I/ In 7 reporting areas.


-


l


- 6 -


JUNE 1951





PES-153


Young Chickens on Farms 8 Percent above Year Ago:
Hatchery Output Hih :

On June 1, the number of young chicneks on farms was 8 percent
greater than a year ago. This suggests an increase, although by a some-
what smaller percentage, in the number of potential layers that will be
available January 1, 1952. So far as laying flock replacement is concerned
the hatch of chicks in 1951 is later than in 1950. The April 1 estimate of
young chickens on farms, reflecting chicks started In March and earlier, was
7 percent below the year before. The corresponding May 1 estimate was
5 percent above last year.

The increase in the June I number of young chickens on farms is great-
est in the North Atlantic Region, where the increase is 33 percent over a
year earlier. Other large increases are in the Western States, 16 percent
South Atlantic States, 9 percent; and East North Central States, 4 percent.
The increases in the remaining regions were less than 2 percent.

The three most important months for the hatching of chicks for farm
flock replacements are March, April and May. Chicks produced in these months
are included in the report of June 1 numbers. Hatchings in June and July
will affect the number of potential layers available next January 1; but
hatchery output for farm flock replacement in June and July is normally re-
latively small, and this year it probably will be close enough to the June
and July output of 1950 so that numbers already on record probably indicate
reasonably closely the extent of the increase over 1950. _/

Hatchery output has been higher than in the corresponding months last
year. The cumulative increase through May was 12 percent. In the broiler
areas from which comparable reports are available, there had been a 31 per-
cent increase in January-May placements of 1951, as compared with the same
months of 1950. It is likely that almost half of the 1951 output of com-
mercial hatcheries will be of broiler chicks.

The percentage increase in broiler chick placements in 7 areas over
last year, which was noted through May 1951, probably is less than the gain
for the U. S. as a whole. This is because the recent growth of that in-
dustry had been, and probably continues, at a faster rate outside the 7 areas
than within them. Placements of broiler chicks, and settings of eggs In
incubators in broiler areas, already suggest that 100 or 110 million more
broilers will be marketed in January-September 1951 than in January-Septem-
ber 1950. This increase is equivalent to 16 or 18 percent of the total
.1950 output of 616 million broilers. Therefore, if broiler output in the
last quarter of 1951 (based on July-September chick placements) only holds
even with the comparable 1950 rate, an increase of one-sixth in annual
broiler production is indicated.




If For a discussion of the effects of changes in June and July hatches upon
annual numbers of chickens raised, see Poultry and Egg Situation, April
1950, page 5.


- 7 -




JUNE-1951


Cold-Storage Stocks of Frozen Egg Approach 1950 Level:
Shell far Lower

Stocks of both shell and frozen eggs in refrigerated storage are
near their season peaks. In 4 of the past 5 years, the seasonal peak of
shell egg holdings was reported 1/ as on July 1; in the other year, on
August 1. In the same period, the peak for commercial holdings of frozen
eggs also was reported 4 times for July 1, and once for August 1.

The In-movement of shell eggs has not increased to the rate that had
been expected prior to the storage season, and on June 1 the total holdings
of 2.1 million cases were the second lowest for the date since records were
begun in 1915-16. On June 1, 1950 there were 2.4 million cases in storage,
and the holdings of 1.9 million cases on June 1, 1949 were the record low
for the beginning of-that month.

After the slow 1951 start, storage of frozen egg increased more
rapidly and by June I stocks were within 11 percent of a year earlier.
However, last year's stocks were not large, either in comparison with pre-
vious years or with the demand for liquid and frozen egg. The decline in
movement of frozen egg into storage during 1951 contrasts with the long-
term trend. There was a fairly consistent increase in the season peak from
the average of 17 million pounds for 1916-20 to the 1941 level of 206 mil-
lion pounds.

This year's June I holdings of 161 million pounds of frozen egg are
equivalent to 4.2 million cases of 30 dozen each.2/ Frozen egg comprised
two-thirds of the combined holdings equivalent to 6.3 million cases.

Although there usually is not much net change in the volume of stored
shell egg stocks during June, table 3 shows that stocks in that month last
year were by mo means static; the table shows that, in the cities where
detailed data are available, the small net change during the month was the
result of a near-balance of the gross in and out-movements. Both in-and
out-movements evidently continue in every month of the year. The consistent
seasonal pattern of storage in the 4 cities is obviously due to the strong
preponderance of respective in and out-movements et the appropriate seasons,
rather than to the absence of offsetting contraseasonal movements.

Data do not exist to permit a check regarding the extent to which
the 4-city experience is representative of the United States. However, it
is likely that short holds, with contra-seasonal in-or.out-movements for In-
dividual lots, might be more frequent in the terminal markets than elsewhere.


I/ The actual peaks may not have occurred on those particular dates; the
nation-wide reports are prepared monthly.
2/ Converted at the rate of 38 1/2 pounds of frozen egg equals one case.
This is the new conversion rate adopted by the Department of Agriculture for
use in converting: stocks on hand January 1, 1951 or later, and production!
after that date. A table of conversions used in earlier years is printed on
another page. The chances in the conversions reflect changes in the size and
quality of the individual eggs used by commercial breakers, and changes in the
technique of breaking.


- 8-






P8-153


-9-


fable 3.-taell g BrOesM ad niet cold Itorag movements, ew TYork, Bostan,
PhIladelphis, an Chicago. by months, 1950 to date


I 1 3 1 o 3 1 :. I
SiMet move-: a : I Met move-
a ment as al Stocka. *a :st a a
stocks t percent- at In- t- : percent-
Taer a No .s t age of ae ..nt "-v-- a et : age of
and beginning movement movement oo(nm odoinwt I oe o movement dominant
Mont o : : o: :
mouth :ovement mth movement
.s m&e ,I a ; G i rent
a Gauee GCamm Gaue ti Percent a GaIse Cause Caue' 'ame. Percent


Bea Tort


Philadqlphia


9,30C
75,01W
: 97,255
* 132,20
236, 21

*L 21,19



8.773

* 12,05
2 18,6.
: 42,21
* 120,.U3


20,328
11,261
,8.293
32.134
411,537
10.676
10,233
10.613
3.691
5.610
1.581
825
2.481
3.077
5.361
20,106
40.390


3.150
7,186
8.,598
3.591
2,686
12.935
31,916
33,036
28,221
18,1463
7.506
997
636
2,135
2.936
2,996
6.725


17,198
4.075
- 305
28.51!
38,551
-' 2.259
- 21,683
- 22.423
- 24,530
- 12.153
- 5,925
- 172
1,845
942
2.425
17.110
33,665


s2 1 1.751
45 18.949
36 a 23,02h
TO : 22.719
51 a 51.262
17 : 90,113
72 87.s54
57 665.171
81 4: 3,T748
68 : 19,218
83 6.365
33 440

29 268
.23 2,113
s 48 3,055
67 s 5,480
s0 1 22,590







97 22.282
85 117,671
71 r 7.528
74 49,576
79 735,780
o 1.137.039
66: 1,268,s06
86 ,1 1194,822
81 1,07 ,886
60 766,187
83 228,765
22 11,827

90 40,o53
21 5.492
58 9 2,249

T. 71 131
.
.3.


80,054
49,332
103,637
145,988
254.735
111.633
4P.C37
68,618ts
28.053
30,324
7.569

23,666

117.239
234,886








5.077
?911
14.265
18,675
14.000ooo
3.959
5.060
2,555
2.251
3,510
500.
718


14.306
27.125o
6,6S7
49,210
.92.241t
152.059
1M8137
148,753
119.224
62.100
11.253
16.718
23,501
25,u89
38,972
47,135






Boaton

155
1,506
4.15
4,869
2.915

14.857

8.832
2,895
561


65,748
22,207
36,950
102,039
205.525
19,389
-110,022
- 89.519
-120,700
- o,0 .Q
- 51,246
- 3.654
6.948
6,828
23.354
78.,267
187,751









10,070
13,835
S11;085
5.953
9.797
15,277
9.597
5.328
2,398
157


2,192
9,193
10,119


I/ GOrau marement in sua direction am met movement.


19"0
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
NoV.

Dec.
191
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May


Chtcamp


I.
I
1






5,
I





4


-111,537
240.464
148.A01
2U5.087
401,782
140,46
16.257
24,426

3.119
3.78.4
7,85,1
6,914
39,859
17.973
106.807
226,260


605.
1,42 .2
3,802
12.197 ".
sk,ask..


16.548
10,607
6,253
1,553
523
8,719
90.241
142,362
-- 314.381
540.5413
220,722
15.,05

5,475
23.093
13,823
1.711
4,639


62
1.128
1.610

:065


95.359 85
229.857 96
142,o0e 96
246,204 99
401.-159. ..100
131,767 94
- 73.989 82
-117,936 83
-310,699 99
-537.422 99
-216,938 98
- 7.774 50
1,439 21
16,757 42
4,150 23
105,096 98
221,621 98


33
13 W
23,430
37.265
48.350
42,397
,2 0.
17
2,398
0

700
994
3.186
12.379


1950
Jan. i
Feb. I
Mar. a
Apr. I
June a
July
Aug.
ept. I
3o.. .
Dee..
1951 '
Jan. *
Feb. .
lar. I
Apr. I



.3
*1


I .




JUNE 1951


Hith Level of Demand
Factor in A& and Poultry Price _Rse

Higher prices for eg,;s and poultry than a year ago are due to
changes in demand, Because the civilian per capital disappearances of eggs
and chickens are currently at or above the corresponding levels of a year
ago, the price increases over a year ago cannot be ascribed to changes in
supply.

Some of the factors indicating the level of demand are shown in
table 7. Almost every one of the factors indicates a stronger demand than
a year ago. While all of the factors affecting demand are not listed in
the table those included are representative enough to indicate the extent
to which demand has strengthened since last spring. With the defense pro-
gram likely to continue at a high level for some time into the future, no
abrupt let-down in general demand is likely.

The prospect for a high level of demand does not necessarily mean
continuing strong demand for specific commodities, such as eggs or poultry.
Prices of specific commodities do not necessarily react in the same fashion
as prices in general, or even prices of commodities with which close rela-
tionships might be expected. For example, table 4 shows that egg prices
in iarch-Hay 1951 were 43 percent higher than the unusually low price of a
year earlier, and chicken and turkey prices respectively 25 and 17 percent
higher, while the corresponding changes for some other livestock items
ranged from an increase of 23 percent for hogs to a 40 percent increase for
lamb.

One frequently-expressed belief regarding egg prices is that over
moderately long periods, such as a year, the strongest influence upon them
is the general level of demand; but that in short intervals such as in a
month, changes in supply (largely seasonal) are the more important factors
affecting price changes. The two charts shown on the opposite page support
this belief.
Table 4.- Egg and poultry prices received by farmers:
Changes, llarch-Ilay 1950 to 1951, compared with
changes in selected agricultural prices

Commodity or a: rch-lay : March-May : March-Hay
m uUnit : :average increase,
measure of prices average, 1950Baverage, 1951* 1950 to in9 e
: : Percent
Eggs :Cents per doz. : 30.7 44.0 45.3
Chickens :Cents per lb. : 23.2 29,0 25.0
Turkeys :Cents per lb. : 29.7 35.3 18,9
Wholesale milk :Dollars per cwt: 3.56 4.37 22.8
Hogs :Dollars per cwt: 16.70 20.73 2341
Veal calves :Dollars per cwt: 24.83 33.53 35.0
Beef cattle :Dollars per cwt: 22.00 29.80 35.5
Lambs :Dollars per cwt: 24.17 33.97 40,5
Sheep :Dollars per cwt: 11.03 18.00 63.2
Wool :Cents per lb. : 53.7 112.7 109.9
Indices of: :
Livestock :
products : (Percent of) : 261 339 29.9
All crops : ( 1910-14 ) : 221 214 24.0
All farm products average ) 842_2 _- M& 08 a27. -


-10. -





- 11 -


MONTHLY SUPPLIES AND
PRICES OF EGGS


1948 1949 1950 1951
*AFtER PRICE SUPPORT. REQUIREMENTS FOR HATCHING. AND ADJUSTMENT
FOR CHANGES IN COLD STORAGE STOCKS


FARM EGG PRICES and % OF 1935-39
CONSUMER INCOME 2
S i-------- 250
Disposable income I
per capital %,N I,, \


I I I I I 5 0
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955
S*VERAGE ANNUAL PRICE PER DOZEN41ECEIVED IY FARMERS

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE REG. 47416-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


m B I I


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


47324A -XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS





Table 5. Eggs: Monthly commercial supply from farm production, and
average prices, January 1948 to date I/
:Net commercial: : : : : U. S.
:cold-storago :Government : Efdctite : U. S. :average
Year : Farm : movement :Eggs for : purchases : supply :average:retail
and :produc- : shell :hatching : for : in commercial : farm :price
month: tion : and frozen : : price : channels 2/: price :(BAE)
: equivalentt : :support : : per : per
: : Out : In : I: : :dozen :dozen
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: cases cases cases cases cases cases Cents Cents

Jan.: 11,994 360 408 11,946 48.7 68.8
Feb;: 13,075 99 992 12,084 45.0 60.6
Mar.: 16,872 1;459 1,190 14,223 42.6 60.1
Apr.: 17,444 3,447 882 13,115 42.6 59.3
May : 16,501 3,452 386 94 12,649 41.5 59.3
June: 13,892 1,233 232 6 1 11,76 43.4 62.5
July: 1,322 232 197 788 11,569 45. 4.
Aug.: 10,850 1,570 186 618 41,616 49.2 69.4
Sept: 9,759 2,047 195 329 11,281 51.4 70.7
Oct.: 9,706 2,405 241 205 11,665 54.7 76.6
Nov.: 9,594 1,999 229 46 11,318 58.3 78.2
Dec.: 11,128 1,117 334 76 11,835 52.8 69.2
1349 :
Jan.: 12,750 614 582 173 12,609 47.1 67.2
Feb.: 13,444 285 1,099 480 12,150 41,8 57.1
Mar.: 17,103 871 1,260 1,017 13,955 41.2 57.9
Apr.: 17,017 1,217 1,075 1,513 13,214 42.3 58.9
May : 16,292 1,972 486 827 13,007 43.4 61.4
June: 13,692 1,169 246 669 11,608 44.1 63.8
July: 12,075 275 219 652 11,479 45.4 64.1
Aug.: 10,757 1,002 270 367 11,122 48.8 70.0
Sept: 10.067 1,283 267 201 10,882 52.4 72.9
Oct.: 10,578 984 246 52 11,264 51.4 72.6
Nov.: 10,864 874 230 96 11,412 47.0 65.3
Dec.: 12,664 645 361 880 12,068 40.5 55.2
1950 :
Jan.: 14,375 308 591 153 13,323 31.2 46.9
Feb.: 14,569 836 1,112 551 12,070 29.6 /0.4
Mar.: 17,950 1,708 1,186 713 14,343 31.6 47.2
Apr.: 17,856 1,853 894 1.096 14,013 30.9 47.1
May : 17,228 1,933 436 1,700 13,159 29.6 44.8
June: 14,511 512 319 1732 11,948 30.1 46.4
July: 13,019 868 316 1,342 12,229 34.3 50.0
Aug.: 11,872 1,109 304 371 12,306 38.0 56.1
Sept: 10,964 1,608 310 428 11,834 40.4 58.8
Oct.: 11,317 1,831 295 91 12,762 43.2 65.3
ec.: 12 4 771 393 1 124 :7,
1951 :
Jan.: 13,947 392 661 0 13,678 42.6 61.4
Feb.: 14,453 108 1,120 0 13,225 1.4 57.8
Mar.: 17.oll 913 1,331 0 15,367 43.7 63.7
Apr.: 17,550 1,842 1,153 0 14,555 43.1 62.1
--Ma : 17,100 2.382 593 3/ 0 14.125 45.2
' / Corresponding data for prior months are given in The Poultry and Egg Situation
July-August 1949, table 2, page 5.
2/ Rggs from farm production and storage for domestic consumption, military use,
and exports.
3/ Estimated.






PES-153


Table 6.- Price of eggs received by farmers, disposable income
per capita,and civilian egg consumption, 1935-50


: Price of
eggs Disposable: Ci
Year received income
by farmers, per capital co
: per dozen pe:

Cents Dollars

1935 : 23.4 456

1936 : 21.8 516

1937 : 21.3 552
1938 : 20.3 595

1939 : 17.4 536

1940 18.0 574

1941 : 23.5 691

1942 : 30.0 867

1943 37.1 970

1944 : 32.5 1,065

1945 : 37.7 1,082

1946 : 37.5 1,125

1947 : 45.3 1,177

1948: : 47.2 1,285

1949 : 45.2 1,256

1950 : 36.2 1/1,332


I/ Preliminary estimate by Council of


:As a percentage of 1935-39 average
rilian Price of :Disposable : Civilian
egg eggs income : egg
isumption* received per capita:consumption
r capital by farmers per capital


Eggs

278

287

306

308

311

317

311

316

346

350

397

374

379

386

382

395


Percent

.112

105

102

98

84

87

113

144

178

156

181

180

218

227

217

174


Percent

89

101

108

98

104

112

135

169

189

208

211

219

229

250

245

260


Percent

93

96

103

103

104

106

104

106

116

117

133
126

127

130

128

133


Economic Advisers.






lt -

11bis 7.- 33astad saU tare of th tsi ato dom, g199 to date


I I I$aillsm 1bg ram e sa
*.-' '.I -.. e M ar f N u -- l. arues
P erio dt a. ; i rt I I lS --m 1
OPS,, t (loM.'^Mool, fiangwhmol (19o.
: mi.ML.Lt on Ma luamsn NUllsom ftm lan t swevt
1


1919
1.t carter a 1k8.3
eSd amrar : M18.7
3r Quarter 149.5
ch 44mite r a 10.2
1950
let Qamwtr 10.8
2m Q=ter a 151.k
3r Quarter 1952.1
ihe Garter 159.8


1951
J-7
.mab
April
JUM


170 159 59b
170 156 153
169 13 A9
168 uS 06


1l9 BM9

166 .26
171 163


S ( ) 61.5 59.o 1.5 1m 180o ma
(153.-) 61.3 58.9 2.k 181 186 176
( ) 62.3 60.02 .2 18i 18k M0
61.8 60.0 1.7 189 is8 M3
62.8 61.2 1.6 10 283 an


SPriaa oan Orae Natioml ProLmot R2s
: Ourrent alm 199
PnJoa a m l emetS m a Glrom PIVat a Govermant P~aas : Total : dallane,
meait, : imet taou.vestmt a of o em saM .eee u a Bm s tatal
: Billion dollars llI= dollars slilluon a dll llM dollar. 311im dollars


1919
lot QSu~rr
d Quarter
32d Qurter
lot QaMrtar

195u
1st Quarter
nad Quarter
3z4 Quarter I
kth Qater a
1951


April
MYar
,June


177.4
178.k
179.0
180.6

189.6
185.8
198.9
195.8


k1.9 08.8 ( )
11.3 25. ( .)
43.2 9. ( %3)
42.8 093.8 ( )

o0.5 963.3 ( )
39.9 271.6 l..
10.4 383.9
17.6 300.3 ( )


( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
(0Ok.8) (59.0) (53.6) (313.9)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )


lmhrobsolw pnww. 2
Partod urreato1han Td1a*na.. daeflst aw deltf ead %-o
S m~o-be p3arnl tome a Coip-HUttom of a M31 1bm mer e i Smom M m __ Total :a P Ir Capota I miloee Total a r It s omr L
:2110A dollar Doela.T Billi dollars Billie dollms Dollars 1 m dollMare
1919
lt Quarter 189.9 1,281 11.5 196.1 1.96 143.1
M GQwartur 16.2 1,2Sk 10.5 191.3 1,80a 1"t.1
3rd anm)rtr a 1895.1 1,238 Wo.o 109.1 1,160 VA.b
ish Qarmw a 16.8 1,213 L0.9 190.k 1,aI6 143.5
IW)
1950
1ot oanrsr 197.4 1,309 BAR.3 Ma.5 1,341 16.5
RaY Quartr 195.6 1,291 17.9 198.8 1,313 350.5
3rd uarr o 20b.6 1,34) 23).3 01*.8 1,237 15k.
kh taOter a 211.6 1,30 A.7 306.1 1,350 1358.0
1951
.Jmmr*7 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ( )
Fe ruy 21(.9) l, 170.2) (.2) 2,318) 6155.7)
Ihnh ( ) ) ) ( ) ( ) ( )

W11
numb
AMUl
MYr


ins.laag mte,
AnnalMs -t
moolnuesme VA


IL-. Iae., al "We sets.
o1seae-y uet t t.. ;
rnlon Inentins, mDot Uased orewestoUl to Iss a0staUs.


JAI-1951





ns-J.153 15 -

Table 8.- Major costs and gross returns per layer from. egg production as
related to rate of lay, 160 MInnesota farm flocks, 1949. I/ 4

(data for cover chart)
: Es l p laid aer la_ er
: Under : 350- : 160 : 210 or
150 : 179 : 209 : over

: Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars

Value of eggs
produced 4.20 5.42 6.29 7.50

Feed cost per
layer 2.61 2.71 2.86 2.91

Death loss and :
depreciation :
per layer .41 .69 .65 .43


Numbers Numbers Numbers Numbers

Number of
flocks 37 47 31 45

Average number
of layers 206 210 255 249
per flock

I/ From "Costs and Leturns From Poultry", Mimeo. Bpt. 187, University of
Minnesota, in cooperation with BAE, March 1951.

Table 9.- Conversion factors, shell to liquid or frozen egg, 1921 to date.


Applicable period Yield of liquid
:___ __ __ or frozen egg
: : from 30 dozen
From : Throuh : shell eggs


Year Year Pounds

1921 1925 35.5

1926 1930 36.0

1931 1933 36.5

1934 1936 37.0

1937 1950 37.5

1951 ---- 38.5





U. S. Department of Agriulture
Washlngton 25, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
BAE-PEs-153-3/51-3600
Permit No. 1001


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
DilI#AlllilllhiIII
Penalty for p 3 1262 08603 5884
penalty of potL.,, .


:- ..: Y OF FL.3RIDA
L i L .-iHY *
r ::r r*;.iS DrP.
5-':6-49
FNS-6 GAI:;;L-.VILL, FLA.


I






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:*
$ :i










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