Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
October 1949
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00093

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text



!TH


in Thi- l -uc-
E L' Ls and Pnulrrv in [lie
A.-LrcLltural Act ol lo-i0


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

The decline in commercial ee,.: stora ,e in
recent years is due in large measure to the gen-
erallv narrowing spread between springtime ego
prices and peak fall prices. This -pread is be-
iny reduced by the increased production ot ee s
in the fall, and also, since l1-il, by the larae


NEG. 47443-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

purch ase -; ol the Derpartment ot Acriculture.
Durin, the v ar,Government purchase_ were rrade
to fill overseas needs, but foreign :demands ha.e
diminished and in the last 2 years Government
purchase- ha e been made solel,.' tor price
support.


FOR RELEASE
E C. 7, P. M.


-SITUATION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
_RUKl NOV.- DEC. 1949


PES-140


EGGS IN STORAGE
Commercial Stocks and U S D A Purchases as a
Percentage of Jan.-July Farm Production
%/ ---- I--- I--- ----i---

USDA
30 PURCHASES
J a(fJan.-July )

20


10 SHELL :

FROZEN

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950









The Poultry and Egg Situation at a Glance


Item Unit



production .................. M1. doz.
number of layers on farm : Million

of lay per hen .............. Number

_t civilian per capital
appearance ..................: do.

n egg production .............. Mil. lb.

egg production .............: do.

e received by farmers ....... Ct.per doz.

coe received by farmre an a
centage or parity ............: Percent

t11 price (BAE) ............... Ct.per doz.

-feed ratio ................... Lb. feed

tocks:

Shell .......................... 1,000 canes

Frozen ......................... do.

Dried .........................:. 111. lb.

hicks natched by commercial
hatcheries ......................: MilllJon

Potential layer on farms ........: do.

Bens and pullete of laying age ... do.

Pellets not of laying age ........: do.

Farm price of poultry ration ..... Dl.per cvt.


Prices received by farmers for I
.:'chickene ........................ :Ct. per lb.

prices received by farmers an a
percentages of parity ............: Percent

Patall price of chickens (BAE) ... :Ct. per lb.

Ericas received by farmers for
nturkeye ......................... do.

|tocka:

4 Poultry, excluding turkeys ..... Mil. lb.

IF Turkey ........................ *: do.

Shicken-feed ratio ............... Lb. feed

iurkey-feed ratio ................: do.

nerage weekly receipts of poultry:
at Central Western Primry
7 Mrketoa, per plant : 1,000 lb.

terage weekly placement:
aof chicks in 7 broiler areas .... Million


Average. Ave:
:Month .7 1948 1949 "Month93- 1918 1919 Cme--nte on current situation
: 1384: -9..
BARB


250.3 293.0 298.0:: Oct.

297.1 305.1 308.8:: do.

10.1 11.5 11.6:: do.


26.6 30.2 28.3:: do.

--- 3.9 5.4:: do.

-- 3.9 1.8:: do.

37.6 56.7 51.14:: Nov.


90 88 92:: do.

47.0 70.7 72.9:: Oct.

15.0 116.9 15.1:: Nov.



5,081 3,290 810:: do.

5,.45 5,359 3,239:: do.
--- 27.2 69.,.:: do.


30.3 4h.5 53.1:: Oct.

521.8 501.5 517.8:: NoT.

312.4' 322.7 329.4:: do.

209.1 178.8 188.4:: do.

2.60 3.68 .60:: do.

Poultry

20.9 29.9 23.2:: Nov.


11. 105 85:: do.

38.3 57.5 51.2:: Oct.


25.9 42.7 33.8:: Nov.



106.1 93.2 96.9:: do.

12.7 15.1 35.5:: do.

8.2 8.1 6.8:: do.

10.1 11.6 9.9:: do.



33.0 29.3 35.5:: Oct.


--- 3.7 5.3:: do.


232.0

328.3

8.4


26.8





39.41


88

51.1

16.0



3,185

:6,551




31.1

: 90.6

3: .1

: 16.3

S2.59


291.41

339.9

10.3


31.16

1.7

2.4

58.3


86

76.6

16.2



1,685

4,51.1

28.2


46.8

465.7

357.1

108.6

3.59


19.9 29.3 23.1: Holding steady


106 10h 8h:

0.8 59.3 51.6:


26.8 46.1 3.4.i:



1: 3.0 120.6 135.0:

29.2 34.0 74.9: Stocks doubled during October

8.0 8.2 7.0:

: 10.6 12.8 10..: near average



: 36.7 30.3 36.1:


: --- 6.5 6.5:


312.A: October higher than September
: for second tim in history.
318.1:

10.8:


28.8:

3.7:

0.9:

17.1: Sharply down from early fall
peak.

77:

72.6:

14 .2: For the ontn, less favorable
than average.


197 Approaching seasonal low

2,575; points

70.1: Practically all government
owned

62.7:

479.3:

366.8:

112.5:

3.31:


& i


*I








: T H E P 0


- 3 -


ULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, November 29, 1949


SUMMARY


Egg prices reached the 1949 seasonal peak in September, one or
two months earlier than in most recent years. The average price received
by farmers for eggs in mid-November, 47.1 cents per dozen, was 11.2 cents
lower than the November 1948 price and 5.4 cents below the September peak
of. this year. Prices of eggs will continue to drift lower through the flush
season of egg production in the first half of next year.

1' Prices in the spring of 1950 probably will be less than in 1949, not
only because of the expected increase in production over the year before,
but also because new agricultural legislation has made eggs a "non-mandatory"
commodity,: for which even maximum support in 1950 will be at a point under
the 1949 support level. Prices for 1950 egg futures, which are already be-
ing traded', reflect an expectation of lower prices.

A record October egg production contributed to the unusual decline
of egg prices during October and November, and production is continuing at
a high rate. The output not only exceeded that of previous Octobers, but
was 5 percent larger than the September production. In all previous years
except 1941, October production had been smaller. However, high October
productionrcontinues past trends towards earlier fall production.

S- November sales of turkeys from farms probably were at their seasonal
peak. Peak sales of chickens from farms probably occurred in either October
or November. The seasonally heavy movement of both went to storage as well
as to the holiday trade. Storage stocks of all poultry, which on November 1
were 36 percent larger than last year, are increasing seasonally but in total
are 12 percent under the 5-year average. Turkey stocks, taken separately,
are a near-record for the season. Prices of both turkeys and chickens are
sharply under last year, but little different from the levels of the past
few months.








"..*







.:t:;: : ..:













. : .



'
1 -

















.. 9 : ..









* :: .:::
a '
. :r























-IF :. A :..K ** **! *


N,


Prices of the wholesale grades of eggs in the principal .metyolipy ;q?
tan market were firm during most of Sqptaebez, In the %ew o Trk :e:1 qheia igS
markets prices for the commonly quoted grade of eggs reached theSr sea- iM
sonal peaks in mid-September, at about the same time ,that October futures
were at their peak. After declining during the last 10 days of September
both New York and Chicago wholesale prices recovered somehati; another de- '
cline began in both markets on October 21, and fresh egg prices continued.
to fall at wholesale in both cities- until the end.of .the mo For large ::
Extras in New York,. the decline firom Octobers 20 through; 6 wa Q 2.to .
15 cents per dozen, ..and in Chicago the drop far-the same grma d r A.Octo-
ber 20 through October 27 was 1.1 1/2 to 16 cents. Part.pf' 4Pthe9u10..lo 6
were regained in early November, but in view of seasonal production tih-
creases it is not likely that prices in the remaining .e9ke.of .9L9 V"11
again approach the highs already recorded. '

These downturns -in egg prices are responsible for the .nore as@ -l
weekly offerings of dried egg to the Government, which -is .cctiznuig !'
chases through December under the 1949 price support program. kst offef-.
ings in the 5 weeks beginning October 24 averaged 287 thousand pounds., .
against a weekly average of 133-thousand pounds in the 7 weeks ine4ately
prior. Total purchases (net after cancellations) to Novembdr 26 fr ,om.
January 1, 1949 are 60.6 million pounds,. The disposition through Octo-
ber 1 of these purchases and the initial inventory is shown..4. table 5,
pagt 14 .,
p gb l. .i .. ...

Farm egg prices since September have been. dealizing from their..
season.peak at a slower rate than wholesale prices for specific grades.
As a U. S. average, prices to producers were 47.1 cents per dozen i *No-"
vember, compared with 51.4 cents in October and 52.5 cents in September,..
The seemingly gradual decline of farm egg prices follows partly.'from the ,,,
seasonally changing composition of farm. egg marketing, with,respect, to j.
both size and quality of the individual eggs. Average farm pgg prices .
this fall have been slightly lower than the September-November average
'in either 1947 or 1948, but higher than any other year since.1920 .

October Egg- Production. a Record;. ;
Exceeds Last Year in Every Region '

Egg production in both September and October set records for the
respective months. For the second time since records were begun in 1925,
October egg production exceeded output in the preceding month. The .
3,749 million eggs produced on farms in October 1949 were 5 percent more.
than the Septembor 1949 production. The only other year that October i
production exceeded September was 1947, when the increase was 2 percent.

The Increased production this October, as compared with Septea r ;Ni
probably helps explain the fact that egg prices were lower in Octobei'.a .
than in September, contrary to usual experience. However, in 1947, t i
other year when October production exceeded September, faza egg -yri.P '
rose seasonally in the time between the two monthly price report.
:: '


. ?!




riM.


-5-


: A record high October rate of lay and a laying flock larger than
either a month or a year earlier combined to provide the record high egg
production for the month. In table 1 this year's October production,
rate of lay, and laying flock size are compared with previous performances,
and the major influence of increases in rate of lay is clearly indicated.
In 8 of the past 10 years, the successive October rates of lay have been
records. In 1949, the percentage increase from September to October in
numbers of layers in farm flocks was the highest ever recorded, and the
relative seasonal decrease in egg production per hundred layers was a re-
cord low.

Regional differences from a year ago in October egg production are
fairly consistent; production exceeded that of a year ago. in all areas, and
the October rate of lay (in every region a record for the month) likewise
exceeded last year in all areas. Moreover, in comparison with the previous
month rather than the previous year, the differences by regions in October
egg output offer further evidence regarding the current trend toward an
earlier occurence of the low point in fall egg production. Table 2 which
shows monthly fall egg production by regions, demonstrates that in the
Northeast, September has been the low month for fall production for several
years, that this has also been the case in some other regions (though for
fewer years) and that a trend toward the same situation is apparent in the
remaining regions. Incidentally, in the Northeast, late summer production
-- in August -- has in recent years been even lighter than in September.

On November 1, 1949, the number of potential layers (including pullets
not yet of laying age) was 3 percent larger than last year. The number of
pullets not yet of laying age was 4 percent larger. These comparisons
indicate the extent by which the laying flock on January 1,.1950 is likely
to exceed the flock of a year earlier. The numbers of layers that will be
kipt in the first six or eight months of 1950 will be largely influenced
by the numbers available on January 1, although culling and death rates also
will be important factors.

Table 1.- September and October egg production and related factors,-
5-year averages 1925-44, annual 1945 to date

Period : Total egg : Layers on : Eggs per
or :production on farms : farms during month : 100 layers
year :September : October :September : October : September : October
: Million Million Million- Million Number Number

1925-29: 2,401 1,863 284 303 844 614
1930-34: 2,265 1,817 267 287 848 .633
1935-39: 2,270 1,951 251 274 905 711
1940-44: 3,048 2,783 303 336 1,003 828
1945 : 3,425 3,154 323 357 1,060 883
1946 : 3,296 3,192 312 345 1,058 925
1947 : 3,362 3,433 315 349 1,068 984
1948 : 3,516 3,497 305 340 1,153 1,029
1949 : 3,576 3,749 309 348 1,158 1,077





I.



















45 6

4,4
00

us us ae as ae
'ml.
o rE
-
U, I


Ia
43
ar~i


i:
-, s
0
4
OS
4.3





to
M
Fl
0









.0
o
I



0


0

01
a
'4
p.'




-I
4,[
*S
0






E-I


4,
0


o. a





4-
*
S-




AD
0
a ** m








s '
-e


a a
14
Sn


to toD


SO




,-1 c cu


.0 cW. i-


*I
r CD|01 C
to C
to ct
3 I "


4.
to


a a -a -
ri
Go cow
%ii M W


S-0 to
allot-


rq v co
*|I W
-H 40 to0
^ *


0S
<
to


m 4* o
w to 4o
n t


* I










0o i-N
a -1a a
r-* r- I-


M s by K V6 bw.^. nw i Jar .a6r *>i -riv f -..
.. .~.5. .r 1.:2 ; .', t '

t c ,- to w to m N 0s' 10 to u.-I to
t-- en co Io o oU 114 t o to w oCh Mrt

q Cm s so was to
c ,o .o vQ. Va 1 r t,. -:

4 r*q 0 *- n t 0 Go (3 C





to ed to w 0 t -a -0 to q t co t cd 0 -
CD to a)to co m. 0* 1. N 7 K. V. ism-:
m m .coca. m 0 M C Kwtj M _Q .





w -- 0 oI V3 C% .00 I.l P0'0 i to. t
t- ton m o t E- -.ci to Q so .-M to. ..:
It O t 0.0 CO 0. CO o -eI r e !- f .a gO, ..: H .f






t-o cto to L, t- t- I e ,i, rI re-: 4a:
Sa' Lo to o



O -f m .-.1 s -L .. ;:


-4 -
i w .

,n ,.,-. e me P- ,- I a,.- -. S,-I .l .., !












LOrn-d O i- rO cI" WO.-i i,-C 0 C4 t c.0 tot" .fC" 0 :r4"Q
Le OL Wb to El LN o


















, r t ,. .4 0. 0. -, :
li 1 I
t- ( t to,,, t t-c|arcb. -IO 8O. v 0r 0 040 0








SIO to t t- -.. t 7 rH 0 .. l-"i



*.a ioItoOr* O iQ .D :pQK447
.ll-...-O O 0 O ro s a r -. .al? ., r .












r- r-. r4 r v-1 4 iM r: .. -. .:,


**-., "-:, ~ k i":S*^*. : gm.B:**H

.. ... ". ii
-: .. .. : ''ji~i


h w
.,* ,,... 6 T', ..?.
S :... R ': .
.. ... ,: ,: ...

I- '&L'":a' -,;l







e .:. Y.. .-I'..
'.-. r ". '







4.4
p. .. 1.. ... ......
A ..AW4 i
* .... .. f. ." .. 1 .'
i-:'.:: .. : ''.- ..'-, '. :;:', ; .: :": ;:;
.' ***.. :.,. i '**;:." '** *".: :









:'*"" '"." *:"*. i:-*"';-,'" .,,.." p,.K
A-,".: -. : ., :' ..,
- :;, ;!- ,,, ,"'"-** :.] ":. .'"!:!







"- '. ". i:'ii












<-~~ v^s'ik~



t-^^Mt
.. K:p .' ,::... :. : .i

:' ,.;.K..:,.
It ; : i

KS ~ "".
.,.'K... :It t ...4


a aus
* ip




>
0
i a







Trading Opens in 1950 Egg Futures;
Chicago Prices Lover than in 1949, but
Difference in Base Grade Bars Precise Comparison

Trading in contracts for September 1950 delivery of eggs (#2 Refrig-
erator Extras) was begun on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on November 1,
1949, The contract closed its first day at 42.50 cents per dozen, and from
then through November 29 its prices at the daily closes drifted downward to
close at 40.25 cents per dozen on the latter date. The nearest comparable
1949 contract (October) went as high as 56.75 cents during its life, and
was settled at 53 cents.

The basic grade standard for contracts in the fall of 1990 was
changed from the base grade applying to 1949 contracts. Fcr September 1950
through January 1951 the basis is 40 percent A's in refrigerator eggs,
while the contracts for refrigerator eggs through January 1950 are traded
on the basis of 60 percent A's. A means of comparing the prices of the
earlier and later contracts is provided, however, by the allowances which
the exchange stipulates for the delivery of eggs below the 1949 base grade.
For delivery against 1949 storage egg contracts, packs of eggs containing
40 percent A's are acceptable with an allowance of 8 eggs per case, com-
pared with the acceptance at par, of packs containing 60 percent A's. If
this allowance or discount, amounting to slightly over 2 percent, is ac-
cepted as an indication of the difference in value between the two qualities,
it is apparent that the discrepancy in the grade description is not great
enough to be the sole explanation of the price difference between this
year's and next year's contracts. Among the additional factors are the
belief that there will be an ample egg supply in 1950 during the into-
storage season as well as in the fall, and the fact that even maximum
support prices if. 1950 will be under the levels wh5ch were supported in
1949.

The price history of the 1949 contract (October) which is most
nearly comparable to the September 1950 contract, is discussed on page 9.

Turkeys Marketed for Holidays;
Price Under Last Year; Storage Stocks up

The 1949 turkey crop, 29 percent larger than output in 1948, is
moving to the holiday markets and to storage at prices that are sharply
lower than a year ago. At 34.4 cents per pound (live) in mid-November,
the average price received by farmers was 25 percent under the 46.2 cents
received a year ago, and 2.8 cents lower than the 5-year average price
for November of 37.2 cents. Wholesale prices for dressed birds in New
York City are also down from last year, by about the same percentage as
farm prices.

Although the U. S. average prices of turkeys in November and the
two months immediately preceding were respectively 99, 98 and 99 percent
of parity, offerings have been made to the Government under the turkey
support program which provides paying prices equivalent to about 90 per-
cent of parity. Through November 26, purchases have totaled 726 thousand
pounds.









4-7"7 u0uao wU.a U I ootD juoJAJL A U.L fsLuv L&AL n.a&irt~iqa&iW^ .. 4
%;:. the record 1945 turkey crop was the source of the .taogs hoM:.duS
.Usually, frozen turkey stocks.increse. thr.ug 'J ar f a
on Februr3y 1.

Chicken Prices Steady I Hoveiaber .
K"i, Storage Stocks Increase 8eaona ..... ..:.:* i

There has been little change in the past., fewV MithifA l tA o- m :
level of prices received by farmers for chiclcens. .Wh$1e the volume of..
marketing of farm-produced chicken is still heavy, the mven.t a's tq. @
ably passed its seasonal peak,. Storage .stckes robay.' l.lo ooi. nu : ;to.
increase, but the net in-movement may. not .1be. a heay as 'vOat' O;!.e
*,=.::. )38 million pounds of poultry exclusive 6r turkeyes a. dalcl.a were addlte 6.'
S.* freezer stocks..

..... At 23.1'cents per pound in mid-November, the average K ice. *?de e'
.* by farmers for chickens was little different from the a.vera p 'ico .. V .
ceived in.the 3 months immediately' preceding. In'August149 t..e.f s
25.1 cents, in September 24.4 cents, and. in October .23,.c6l.ts~,, Tn.l.t:
months prices of commercial broilers in spme markets have been le" Ate 6"
than this average would indicate, .however. On the' Deql-tr-Ve. Pnfesautq
example, the weekly average price to broiler producers .vaied .a.twdeep -.
ut and mid-November within the range of 24.8.to 31.3 .centsv : ad ,..er;
28 the price most commonly paid on the Peninsula was about, 26 d2ent6pe
pound. Currently, both the U. S. average price for chicken 'andbte 4. :
Mar-Va broiler price are about 20 percent under the levels wvich, prev a ie d
a year ago and respectively 30 and 20 percent below peaks readhe e'arli
in 1948.

U. S. storage .stocks of-frozen poultry, exclusive of turkeys a .":
ducks, were 126 million pounds on November 1., This represents !j4tret.:S
over the months immediately preceding, and is a part of the deason:... e
. which usually brings holdings to a peak about January ,WhIlJ presQpt
storage holdings of poultry excluding turkeys and ducks. aie. eee
than last year's stocks, they are 27 percent smaller ith th"n aea 'S Mi
ember holdings for the five years 1944-48. .,,
S. .. ..A.
Chicago E Futures Trading Suspen ed .
for OctobQr 1949 Contracts; ..
Settlement Price Established ': ..

On October 11, 1949, the Board of Governors. of- the ago, Msb4
tile Exchange, ruled that after the opening of the market on 0"ct"h !
trading in 1949 October eggs.- be limited to closing out existing bn l
Trading in this contract without the-.above zreatricti o vofld 4iunaar .
have continued until October 24', 1949.- At the eaSW it ;.'ti la. i sn
ments were increased. : ".. '


-4

_~ ~ ~~~~~~~~i R M "."".o., ,j ;.:?%.i#%







The Board of Governors fNrther ruled on October 14 that trading in
the October 1949 contract be ended and that a settlement price at 53 cents
a dozen be fixed.

On October 17, the Board of Governors adopted a final ruling.affect-
ing the October 1949 contract. This provided that any clearing member de-
siring to make delivery on October egg contracts after October 24 had to
notify the blearing house of the Exchange of his intention to deliver, and
to furnish satisfactory evidence of his ability to do so. All short con-
tracts in the October future for which delivery was not planned would be
offset against longs at the close of business on October 24, at the settle-
ment price of 53 cents as fixed on October 14.

The deliverable grades of eggs on the October 1949 future were U. S.
Refrigerator Extras of various qualities, with 60 percent A's the basic
grade. Fresh eggs are also acceptable for delivery on refrigerator con-
tracts, but their delivery is seldom economically practical because no
premium is allowed for such deliveries.

At the close"of the market on October 11, 1949, when the initial
Exchange action was taken, there were 1,207 open contracts (480 cases
each) in the October future. On October 14, when trading in the October
contract was suspended, there were 985 open contracts.; By the close of
the market on October 24, (after which date contracts not-yet closed out
were to be settled by delivery), 34 contracts for October were open. By
October 27, the 34 contracts were delivered, thereby completely closing
out the October contract.

The price history of the October 1949 egg contract snows a steady
rise from the beginning of trading in November 1948 until about mid-Sept-
ember 1949, when the price was at a peak. After mid-September, the course
of prices was erratic. During the first week in which the contract was
traded, in November 1948, the price averaged 45.50 cents a-dozen (daily
closes). From then on it rose fairly steadily to 56.05 cents, the average
for the week ended September 16, 1949. From September 16 until October 5,
the October future price declined, closing at .50.50 cents on the latter
date. After October 5 the price advanced, reaching 54.50 cents at the time
trading was suspended on October 14.

The price record of the October future in relation to other refrig-
erator futures contracts for deferred deliveries showed that the premium
of the October relative to other contracts widened steadily. As an ex-
ample, on September 1 the premium of October over November was 2.65 cents
per dozen; by October 14, when trading was suspended, this premium had
increased to 7.30 cents a dozen.

Table 7 shows the statistical position of the October contract at
various times during its life.








EGGS AND.POULTRY .Ik THE AWICU WLW & 1W

Not only i's the -prilce-support status of `eg Ci
turkeys affected by'the6 Agmiculua Ac1o "94 bithi k ,prt,14*
for'those commodities. are changed byte1gsaih The
by the 81st Congress in the.-closringdy of-iteis t sesp as
by. the 'President 6n October 31, 194
Under the new Act the. 1.5 parity 03ce lql be 5._jerce mt lower
for eggs., and 5 percent higher to choices and, t-keys; thyan t, ey e
be under the present pstm of parity opu atin. orcikn dt
keys., the 150 parity prices will be about 5 Peicn ihr-hate
would have been had Title nI of the Agri cultural Act of 1948 gd" AAt
effect. Parity pricesiof eiggs will be uncha4ed in an idaiical
tional pari~~~~ty -would apply under either teArclua c f14

The 1949 Act amends Title II of. the. AD+" of 1948, which- as to have
become effective on January 1, 199D. ISo far- is Peggs and poultry are qyes
cerned, the substantial differences between (a h current proyisjonva
throughh December -19497), (b)the new measure,, and W the supersede pr--
visions, .are as shown in table 3

The computation of dollars and cents prices -for eg&s chiakensa dd
turkeys, as equivalents of any 1ie1eetg o aitkl probdbly
be of less significance in determining.1950 suppo'rts_,th-n was reel y
to past supports.1/ In current legisilationt'suppo-rt$ for gsa pu y
ar seifeda agven percent 6f parity or within a elapivoly narrow,
rawg which is defined by parity standards,,

With the various economic indices at their November 1949 levels, l
trations of the prices as various percen-tagea of eWV. parity Or( ggsr
chickens, and turkeys wol ea ie eo..The. -acta pzces, (for
eggs, seasonally adjusted) in November,1949p, are also given, b -elow.

Eggs Chickns Turkoj
.per dos,. par 1 'per

Prices received by farmers..
November 1949 3L6 ,

New parity at variousA
levels
100 percent 49.0 2.
85 percent 41.6 26453
70" percnt 2i2$
==i3=%3,i.i]
55 Percent i7. ii f





" 's-i O 11 -

In the legislation effective on January 1, 1950 price supports
for eggs and poultry are permissive,not mandatory. The level of support
if available is to be not more than 90 percent of parity. In determining
the level at which prices shall be supported under possible Government
programs, consideration must be given to 8 factors which are speci-
fied in the act as criteria for the determination of support levels.
These 8 criteria, listed in Section 401 (b) Title IV of the Act, are:

"(1) The supply of the commodity in relation to the
demand therefore,

"(2) The price levels at which other commodities are
being supported.........,

"(3) The availability of funds,

"(4) The perishability of the commodity,

"(5) The importance of the commodity to agriculture
and the national economy,

"(6) The ability to dispose of stocks acquired through
a price-support operation,

"(7) The need for offsetting temporary losses of export
markets, and

"(8) The ability and willingness of producers to keep
supplies in line with demand."

These 8 criteria are also pertinent to a determination as to whether or
not price support shall be available.

To compute the parity price for 1950, the procedure will be first,
to multiply (a) the adjusted base price for the commodity in question,
by (b) the current index (1909-14=100) of prices paid by farmers, includ-
ing interest, taxes, and wages of hired farm labor, and then to divide
the product by 100. The result will be the parity price, on an annual
basis. The derivation of the adjusted base price is shown in table 4.
(As bases for parity computations, the adjusted base prices for the vari-
ous commodities are in a sense comparable with the 1919-14 bases used in
the present computations. Those bases are 21.5 cents per dozen for eggs,
11.4 cents per pound for chickens, and 14.4 cents per pound for turkeys.)


I *














40








41
a










43









'"b: ic
II
*6








"0 9
P.



-


S4



CA
E*

0
*rf
VP .
4 3





I-
So
0 ON




AH
-I





.ci,
5


al







to
0





S
5




r-
0




I

&


c10


I -


I..- o


-0 0i id

-P r- u
*ra 4 0 q0 43
00o r-I m-H
l-rA E-4




I'* *1

a1 2



I

LII

I--I


HI



54.
*rd
PC

'0

I -


~'54 -. H I
-H 4-2 g d'
U (*





0 = *0
J o" f 0
0 r-l 0 Q



'd M*rf 0 C- to a

R! C o Do I

.HI 4'-1 M -
*g ~ us ^
01m *r4 Q0




In H
0 0 0
c! cr to a
o --:t H
*rl H 43
11 C
K -P r
-0 r-1 *a
H T- 0 1
I M trid 10
OH a D
H o .O 0


r- *


.0

4.1-194
dl a ip


9108
o obq
'0


43 h
rto a
0

o 'i
m ,


0 0
.ie

**** ** -, !' h.];. 4 J


c*gg ii'
0: 49 6 -P
b0 # f l *Sc
o !: *&ri
m JA F4
. d Ce
tC t.0 C *i
.-4 4 p r

.cI


to.

ib
0 U
0.
0%


4I


&% a
lI
43.l


4a s
5r0 U
C=rt S


r ao
A'g


2V0s



11.11
' ., -i .

.5 M '?
ill.
s 60
0 H p "
o n ad
A H'"
D m
|S <^e


Sf
1*-

P.
0

0
0%
'-.-'-





%rw.k:4":-,%ES-1J0 13-

Table 4.- Prices received by farmers for eggs, chickens and turkeys, relative
to the general level of prices received by farmers, 1939-48, and example of
derivation of adjusted base prices for parity computation

: Prices :Average price received by
Sreceived Average prices received by:farmers for poultry products,
:by farmers :for :divided by index of prices
: for all : poultry products :received for all commodities 1/
S:coties (Aug.: Eggs, ;Chidkens;Turkeys,: Eggs, :Chickens,: Turkeys,

: 1909-July : per : per : per per per : per
1 191ilOQj dozen pound pound dozen pound : pound
: Percent Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

: a. Annual averages

1939 : 95 18.4 13.4 16.0 19.4 14.1 16.8
1940 : 100 19.1 13.1 14.0 19,1 13.1 14.0
1941 -124 25.0 15.6 16.8 20.2 12.6 13.5
1942 : 159 31.4 18.8 21.6 19.7 11.8 13.6
1943 : 193 38.7 24.4 29.6 20.1 12.6 15.3
1944 : 198 33.8 23.9 31.6 17.1 12.1 16.0
1945 : 207 39.0 25.8 33.3 18.8 12.5 16.1
1946 : 236 39.2 26.8 33.4 16.6 11.4 14.2
1947 : 278 46.4 26.7 31.8 16.7 9.6 11.4
1948 : 287 48.0 29.4 41.1 16.7 10,2 14.3

: b. 10-year average

Average :
1939-48 2/: 188 33.9 21.8 26.9 18.0 11.6 14.3

1/ Including allowance for wartime subsidy payments.
2/ If this average were based on 1940-49 instead of 1939-48, the entries in the
last three columns would be the adjusted base prices for the specified commodi-
ties.

To compare monthly prices for eggs (but not for chickens or tur-
keys) to parity there is an additional step, on account of the seasonal
adjustment which is stipulated for the expression of monthly egg prices
in parity terms. This step is to divide the monthly farm price of -eggs
by the appropriate one of the factors given below, and to multiply by
100, to derive the seasonally adjusted monthly price for eggs, which ad-
justed price can then be compared with the parity price. The factors so
far announced for 1950 are:
January 103 April 85
February 91 May 86
March 88 June 89
Factors for 12 months after June 1950 will be announced in the June issue of
Agricultural Prices.

With the passage of time, parity computations under the new method
will be affected by the fact that data for new years are added to the
,._ ..,,period determining the adjusted base price, and data for years a decade
. iP'ast are dropped. This is because the adjusted base price is based on the
.-,rerage of the 10 most recent calendar years. The process of continually









...



.,':".: L
.:'. "*'.. ,
;. i: .





>! ....."
*... ..*







!""

;;....


distribution, including jachool lunches

To U, S. Army, and to International
Refugee Organization, for relief feeding

Co rmbtoial sales.for export and domestic
non-food uses

CCC supply beyond scheduled dispositions
itemized above


2 1b.7 '


.2

.... .
*' "":- J'i""". m!i


I/ This table brings up to date an earlier table wh1iot ae
page 11 of the May-June 1949 issue of the PoultZ and M .j
earlier table was accompanied by a description of .1 tremi .1
to each of the outlets. / Of th.eSe IQ.7 1 million pOeans tbc-
pounds remained in Section .2 inventory a. -the l2d Of. ba

.::.:" ::" :. .. ". .: .:.. :: ... E :.. % ::E.E::..: ..:::E. E=:iEJC W, A ~ l


change, not now expected, in the price of poultry'produot i rlStii4
other products sold"by farmers. This is demonstrated :n tabla i-; :n *^Sxth%
table, it is shown that in the years 1940-44 -the prices ot gsgchi*k n
and turkeys stood relatively high in comparison with the genus b lv0elof'::
prices.received bylfarmers. In.1946-48 -and *6 date I..19^9'th 1 'atid. TH
considerably lower. The relationship for 1950'and possibly Stbr fBllow1gii
years is not likely to be much more-. ftarable than 1949, fmu the poin ac
view of poultrymen, Therdfore, astimB..goes on, the most .Tiar-al yearMo
in the 10-year adjusted base price-are likelyt&.be supplatedby years" i.
of-relativoly less favorable Ceg and poultry'prtoes, anth aj. tted., he4
price for poultry products is likely to decline" *-The methao of computing i
the adjusted base price is illustrated in the lower section of table 4. -

Table 5.- Supply and disposition of dried egg bought for price-support
January-October, 1949 /
-A
-Item Quantity
i iz'ons*':

Supply -
pCCl inventory, January 1, 1949 24.- '
Net purchLses, January through OctobQr, 1949 58.9 .

Total 83,1

Disposition
Under ECA programs, with Section 32 supplement -
.To the United Kingdom and Belgium 6.e
To Western Germany .9

Tinder U. S. Army programs, with Section 32 .
supplement, to Western Germany .6 "

To' %a^"n 2 nno n+ A .^.,. A..'-4-


Total





IMV. -12C. 1949


- 15 -


Table 6.- Commercial storage stocks of eggs, and U. S. Department of
Agriculture purchases, as a percentage of January-July
production, 1925-49

(Data for cover chart)
:Commercial storage : USDA .Farm egg:As a oercontage of Jan.-July -roducti
: stocks, August 1 :purchases.:produc- :August 1 storage stocks:USDA :Storagi
Year : : :Shell :January- : tion : : Shell :pur- :stocks
:Shell:Frozen: and :July :January-: Shell :Frozen : and : chae:and US]
: : :frozen: ____ July :. : :frozen :cas ::purchar
:Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
:cases cases cases cases cases cent cent cent cent cent


1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949


: 9.5
:9.1
:10.6
:10.0
:8.5
:10.7
: 9.5
: 6.3
: 9.4
: 9.0
:7,6
:7.1
: 8.5
:6.3
: 7.0
:7.5
:6.4
:7.9
: 8.9
:11.3
:6.1
:9.9
4: .2
: 5.5
: 1,9


1.2
1.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
3.2
3.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.1
4,4
3.6
3.8
4.1
5.2
7.7
9.4
10.4
6.6
6.9
6.4
6.9
4.5


10.7
10.5
12.9
12.3
11.0
13.9
12.6
9.0
12.4
12,3
10.7
10.2
12,9
9.9
10.8
11.6
11.6
15.6
18.3
21.7
12.7
16.8
10.6
12.4
6.4


0.2


.0.3

0.2
2.2
3. 3.9
3 18.4
11.0
23.1
3.5
7.6
9.1
1.5
5.3


71.1
75.7
79.6
78.5
76.9
79.9
77.4
74.1
73.0
70.8
66.7
69.0
74.6
73.4
76.0
77.0
79.5
93.0
106.0
114.0
107.9
107.1
104.6
102.2
102.0


13.3
12.0
13.3
12.7
11.1
13.4
12.3
8.5
12.9
12.7
11.4
10.3
11.4
8.6
9.2
9.8
8.1
8.5
8.4
9.9
5.7
9.2
4.0
5.4
1.9


1.7
1.9
2.9
2.9
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.6
4.1
4.7
4.6
4.5
5.9
4.9
5.0
5.3
6.5
8.3
8.9
9.1
6.1
6.5
6.1
6.7
4.4


15.0
13.9
16.2
15.6
14.3
17.4
16,3
12.1
17.0
17.4
16.0
14.8
17.3
13.5
14.2
15.1
14.6
16.8
17.3
19.0
11.8
15.7
10.1
12.1
6.3


0.3

2/
0.4

0.3
2.9
4.9
19.8
10.4
20. 3
3.2
7,1
8.71
1.5
5.2


17.7
16.0
14.8
17.7
13.5
14.5
18.0
19.5
36.6
27.7
39.3
15.0
22.8
18.8
13.6
11.5


l/ Less than 50,000 cases.
2/ Less than 0.05 percent.
3/ Estimated from calendacryear4 total.


i:




a ''..1!7T:" 'V,5 :?R, 1 t j "UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
II II I I II 1111111111111111111NII
'. i~ 3 1262 08903 9845
S Mahibgton 25, D. 'C.

jg'.*: ,"OFFICIAL BUSIfNElS 'M%

BAE-PES-14O-11/49- 4100'
.'. Permit No. 1001





IL -----.- ---:--1. Al---
.'. Table 7 .- Eggs: Open contract in -1949 October future on ld





:.. : ::_____ ;::" "_":'_':'_'_ ":'i
: Open contracts for : Reported storagBStock
: -r : ..o j; T A it





; 1- 199 : Contracts GOases Cases Cs

July 1 2,8l2 1349,760 400,788 923,000 2,i.1ti
August 1 : 2,691 1,291,680 337,375 913,000. 2,
S eptember 1 : 2,462 1,181,760 255,700 68,000 ,
^: September 15 1,899 911,520 .180,192 45
V October 1 : /1,573 / 755,040 4/130,174 319,6000i
SOctober 10 : 1,24 595,680 116,175
.. October 17 : 968 464,640 302,865 '"

.. November 1 --- --- 8,510 186,000
... 51.0::!%


' There are no report
would meet the de'llive
2/' Market News.Servic
SMonth-ly Cold- Stora
f/ October 3.


'ts indicating- the proportiozi of the atbied
ry requirements of the. Chicago Msentile 61 &
e, Production and Marke ting A iu ":tat I i
S '........... .





*"* .... W -"i .
., ,. :. :
.. ., .: .
:J., ., ., .


.1-..'