Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
October 1949
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00092

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text








BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
PES-139 OCTOB


FARM EGG PRICES and -% OF 1935-39


CONSUMER INCOME


'Disposable income
per capital -\- i-


1940
AVERAGE ANNUAL PRICE PER DOZEN
* INDICATIONS AS OF OCTOBER 1949


1945
RECEIVED BY FARMERS


-J 50
1950


S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


i11 The level of farm egg prices, on an annual
ais, is very closely associated with the level
Disposable incomes in the United States.
.Hle there have been departures from the gener-
y close association between the two factors -
daring the great egg surplus of 1944, and dur-
ti-he years when egg price ceilings were ef-


NEG. 47416-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


fective egg prices generally are high when
incomes, employment, and business activity are
favorable. The demand-price association shown
above continued even though per capital egg con-
sumption increased almost 30 percent during
the 15-year span.


FI.LrQL..Q 4j Q %J ai.


SITUATION


ER 1949


250


200


150


-100


935


a 0.








Th. Poultry and Egg Situation at a Glance

m Uit :Month : 196 19:9 v:rth: .ag: 198 199 :Coments on current eituatica.
nE: 1.
Emgs


Farm production ..................: Mil. doz.:Avc. 2C9.5

Average number of layers on tar : Million : do. 281.9

Bate of lay per hen .............. Number do. 12.3

Apparent civilian per capital
disappearance .................. do. do. 27.9

Frozen egG production ............: Nil1. lb. do. ---

Dried egg production ............. do. do. ---

Prices received by farmer ....... :Ct.per doz:Sept. 36.6

Prices received by farmer as a
percentage of parity ........... Percent do. 90

Retail price (BAE) ............... :Ct.per doz:Aug. 42.9

Egg-feed ratio ................... Lb. feed :Sept. 13.7

Stocks: : :

Shell .......................... :1,OOOcasee: do. 6438

Frozen .........................: do. : do. 6070

Dried ........................... Mil. lb. : do. ---

Chicke hatched by commercial : :
hatcheries ..................... Million :Aug. 34.9

Potential layers on farm ........: do. :Sept.1/592.5

Bene and pullets of laylrn age ...: do. : do. 307.2

Pullets not of laying age ........: do. do. 284.7

Farm price of poultry ration :Lol.perjwt do. 2.61


Prices received by farmers for
chJckenB ....................... :Ct. per lb:Sept.

Prices received by farmers as a
percentage of parity Percent : do.

Retail price of chickens (BAE) ... :Ct. per lb:Aug.

Prices received by farmers for
turkeys ........................: do. :Sept.

Etock: : :

Poultry, excluding turkeys ..... M1. lb. : do.

Turkey ........................: do. : do.

Chicken-feed ratio ............... Lb. feed do.

rjrke -feed ratio ................: do. : do.

Average veelly receipts of poultry:
at Central Western Primary :
Ilarketa, per plant ............. :1,000 lb. :Aug.

Averae weekly placements : :
or chlckp in 7 broiler area ... Million : do.

L' ..verge 1~H3.L7.


21.2


114

36.1


26.7



88.5

20.7

8.h

9.6



25.46


325.5 321.1 ::Sept.

285.6 286.3 :: do.

13.7 13.5 :: do.


31.2 29.2 :: do.

7.5 7.7 :: do.

5.9 4.0 :: do.

51.4 52.5 ::Oct.


89 94 ::do.

69.2. 70.0 ::Sept.

13.1 15.2 ::Cat.



6608 1626 :: do.

6225 3916 do.

25.7 689 :: do.


67.2 52.2 ::Sept.

535.0 557.9 ::Oct.

287.5 28:.3 :: do.

247.5 269.6 :: do.

3.93 3.66:: do.

Poultry ::

31.9 26.. ::Oct.


112 88 :: do.

55.5 5h.3 ::Sept.


43.3 36.3 ::Oct.



74.9 62.7 do.

13.3 20.8 :: do.

8.1 7.1 :: do.

11.0 9.9 :: do.



23.2 29.5 ::Sept.


3.9 6.5 :: do.


250.3 293.0

297.1 305.1

10.1 11.5


5081 3290

5UA5 5359
--- 27.2


27.7

521.8

312.6

209.4

2.60


5'1.5

322.7

178.8

3.68


298.0

308.8

11.6 :Sertember 1949 a record for the
month.









:Average for January-Septa ber
1969 le alliebU over 91 rot.


:Favorable to producers.


818

323h

73.5


53.1

517.8

329.,

18.64


20.9 29.9


111 105

38.3 57.5


26.6 62.7


106.1

18.7

8.2

10.1


:Practlc&all all Gover ment owed.


)
:)Indicatee more layers for
:) farm flocks in early 1950
:) than thie year.
:)


:Eolding steady.


:Average for January-September
: 1949 Is 90 percent.


:Above support.


96.2 :)
:)Increasing seasonally.
33.8 :)



:120 month average ratio
1938-47, is 10.0


33.0 29.3 35.5 :Seasonal peak normally in
: September or October.

3.7 5.2


Index tn the 19.0 0.,tlrnk Tunio

1: -."..r. .ry ........ .... *
: "Th Cener,] Lemand ti'tation .........................................
: Factnr nther Than P-ice WMhob May Inrflenre 1950 Pnuliry output ..... 5
:i. L. Pmrr-t1r. inn end SupplieR .......................................... 6
: Pri- es ............................. ................................ .. .. .........* 8
The 19? 0 Output of Ch:ckena Prised ............................ *...... 8
: Chicken Neot Prndu'tinn, Sipplieoa, and Prices ........................ 10
: The Prniler Induetry ............................ ..................... i0
: 9. Crwarierrel Cold Storoe Operatic-.. for :':-, Poultry ................. 11
:1C. "urkeye .............................................................. 12
:11. Frrniera' Incomes from Egge and Poultry ............................... 14
:12. ?xp-'.e end Imports .................................... ............. A1 :








Tfl. Z. h V U U JW 't' M I A.*L.* 1 V lU 0 1 1 U A I J.I U M
- -

Approved by Outlook and Situation Board October 13, 1949
!E?. E'E" U A Y


American farmers in 1950 are likely to raise somewhat fever
*cl.. chickens and turkeys than the very large numbers they produced this year.
however egg supplies in the coming year will remain abundant. The lay-
*ing flock cp January 1 will be larger than a year earlier, and January-
ulne egg e production will accordingly exceed this year. The farm prices
likely to result may'induce farmers to raise fewer chickens in the spring
Sof 1950. This leads to a prospect of a smaller laying flock in the fall.

The possible smaller egg production which may result in the' later
months of 1950 may be largely offset by an expected increase in commercial
cold storage holdings compared with 1949.

The prices paid to farmers for eggs and chickens, including broil-
ere, are likely to average lower in 1950 than in 1949. This is indicated
by the prospect that economic activity and consumer demand will continue
to decline slightly from the 1948 peaks, and also by the prospective
supplies of eggs and poultry meat. Through the first ralf of 1950, eggs
will be more plentiful than in 1949. In the early fall, normal-sized
storage stocks would tend to partly compensate for seasonally low egg
supplies, with the result that sharp and sudden price breaks may be avoid-
ed ed. Poultry supplies in the first months of 1950 are likely to include
much larger cold storage stocks of chicken and turkey t.ian the year be-
fore. Before mid-year, marketing of farm chickens will increase
seasonally. This prospect does.not indicate tnat poultry prices will
rise significantly from September 1949 levels. Since September prices
are lower than the average to date for 1949, the 1950 average price iS
likely to be significantly under 1949.

The declines expected in 1950 from the nigh 1949 levels of chicken
and turkey output are likely to be more moderate than would be expected
on the basis of price outlook alone. The record large feed supplies for
the year 1949-50, plus tae availability of family labor on farms and the
desire to maintain farm income, may partly offset price prospects in de-
termining the volume of 1950 poultry output. Prices for poultry ration
in'1950-are expected to be lower than in 1949 but not by enough to offset
the effect of the prospective decline in egg and poultry prices upon
farmers' incomes from the poultry enterprise.







United- States population, 1930-t49.


: : Index : : : Ch.ia.-; S aie a
: Index : of : : ; ens tion.. c
: : of :poultry: Po. :;g rdaled :FrmtfeaSflm. .
:Popu- : popu- : and :tential'" o-'exclud-tfoaokS : '" t .
Year :lation:lation : qg8g layers, duced".. ing : : a
:July l:July 1 : pro- :- : .a...oungMat- 1ro- ...
: :(1935- :duction: :' ;am ierc ial:birds: ure :' r.:t r. A......:
:39=100) (1935- : :' .broill- V. bD t lha ,.aM' .:J..
: :. ;39=100): : : ers .: .-. Auo
: Mil. Percent Percent Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.' Mil.

1930 :133.8 95,4 106 h20 39,667 777 s :
1931 :124.8 96.1 101 402 38,532 709 660
1932 :125.6 96.8 99 386 36,298 736 665 I
1933 :126.3 97.3 100 391 35,514 750 ....
1934 :127.1 97.9 96 385 34, o29 614 .3 ": 56 *
1935 :125.0 98.6 92 350 33,609 658 43 e ?. .,A
1936 :128.9 99.3 99 363 34,534 715 252 378 '53 683 ..A
1937 .:129.6 99.9 101 380 37,564 601 278 289 68 65:
1938 :130.7 100.7 101 353 37,356 651 238 316 8. *'. 67 .
1939 :131.7 101.5 110 377 33,843 697 252 349. 106' 707 :
1940 :132.8 102.3 112 393 39,695 634 285 286 143. 714 I
1941 :134.1 103.3 120 381 41,978 745 244 366 19. :B.o 9
:942 :135.5 104.4 139 423 48.597 844 275 412 228 9. 5 3
1943 :137.4 105.9 162 489 54,539 1,001 350 524 .285 -1 9 3
1944 :13P.9 107.0 166 524 58,530 832 403 388 265 1,056 3
1945 :140.4 108.2 170 474 55,858 915 373 437 346.: 1,15 5
1946 :142.1 109.5 160 474 55,590 746 340 369 276 9 .
1947 :144.9 111.6 157 436 55,252 745 289 384 295 '9
1948 :147.4 113.5 153 426 55,168 637 284 285 351 94%.,
1949 2/ :150.1 115.6 164 413 55,600 749 i

i/ Assuming same percentage distribution between young and mature birde In a ..:
consumption as in sales.
Preliminary.



The American poultry -industry in 1949 was at a production i. .v
about as high as any ot'ier peacetime year. This is trub even conl. i4e
relative to the growing population of the United States. The prospective
moderate reductions in numbers of young poultry in 1950 must be viewe .in
comparison with tae large 1949 numbers, which were exceeded onghy In. th :
war years when this country undertook food supply responsibilities abrd" ,

d..
S i


g ... m. s.i


















-,Tes which bear upon egg and poultry prices (as well as upon prices
S st other "fam'products).

The 195Q outlook indicates a. slight downward movement for urban
moment incomes, and business activity generally. While 1950 activity
S sipeted to be. high by all prewar standards, it probably will be lower
i m .,in either 1948 or 1949. The downward movement is not expected to be
0 sBrp or sudden, but instead a continuation of the slow declines from the
I ostwar peaks. A more detailed discussion of the demand outlook and its
1plications for agricultural prices will be found in the Outlook issue
Sof .e If 4j and. Price Situation.

I Plentiful Feed Supliea, Declinin Farm Income
Availability of Family Labor, Will Limit Tendency
for Poultry Numbers to Fall from Hilph 149 Levels

Large carry-overs from the 1948 feed-grain harvest, plus another
Sbueper corn crop this year, assure poultrymen and other livestock producers
of:arecord feed-grain supplies. The lower prices that are likely to apply
Sto grains and related products will probably bring poultry ration costs in
.1950 to a. level slightly lower than 1949.

Both in total and relative to prospective numbers of livestock to
3 be fedl' supplies of feed grain for the feeding-year October 1949-September
1950, are a record. Price support loan-rates are a little lower than in
1948-corn at the equivalent of 90 percent of parity is down 4 cents per
Sbushel. Enough "free" stocks are available to bring current prices
'a4. s tly wander loan levels. Poultrymen can expect that this situation
1ill continue through much of the coming feeding yearL at least until
fre f'..market corn is absorbed or until prospects concerning the 1950
comr crop become fairly definite.

S plies of byproduct feeds from wheat flour milling will continue
::a.irly.plentiful, although slightly less so than last year. The volume
iof'.hese, feeds. available for feeding is in proportion to the activity of
Domestic flour mills rather than in proportion to the size of the U. S.
: wheat stocks. While they probably will be scarcer than last year, these
. feeds may not be higher, since their prices are affected to some extent
?f' by competition from corn and other grains.








continue through most or 1I.50, aLtnough the pripp or prgaane'w e me rU
slightly during the year. In early October,' corn '"and -bi s' -a
15 percent above their 1939-48 averages (October price'. in eaoh year). ln,
early October meat sCraps were 53 percent higher than thart avera.a. a ;4
fish meal was 80 percent higher,. Soybeen eal. was pltt e 42.-paet t.t
the average." These high prices for protein fpeds are only partly aoftt4i. ".
by recent advances in.the field of nutrition which permit greater k4!f$ r
in their use in poultry rations. These advances, which ard already ..IIb
applied, include the-fortification of mashes' with z4rneral and ritaIMt
plements. ..

.On most farms in the United States poultry is a supplement tfseP-
prise. As such, it has provided an opportunity to more efficiently g
family labor and a certain amount of farm-grown grains. This fact bay
limit declines in poultry production which are to a certain degree indicated
by prospective price relationships. The general decline in. net faranKbi .
from the 1948 peak may be creating a pressure toward the fuller e .p .
of family labor-which now is available on .farms in larger numbers. thsan
during the war.


U'


The ample feed supply and the desire. to maintain farm. income h* "
is being distributed to a farm population increased over its wart .
numbers-may tend to hold poultry numbers in 1950 nearer the high 1 '"
figures than might be expected on the basis of price relationshipsand
price expectations alone .

Egg Supplies January to June 1950 t5 o
Exceed 1 99; Output .in Later Half


of Year Uncertain

.The number of potential layers on farms in January is the most ..
important factor in estimating egg.output for the following six or eight -
months. From year to year, mortality and culling losses in the Nation' .
laying flocks are relatively stable and changes in rate of lay-are a 4t.
Therefore, .the number of layers-is the most variable of the factors a '
fecting year-to-year changes in egg output. .

On the basis of number of potential layers and young chicken ts.*t
-estimated to be on farms, it is likely that January numbers will, be .ti
rcent larger than the 413 million potential layers (including layin.'ha.. ... "
pullets) reported on .January 1, 1949. Egg output for the January throig i.
June period will increase in the same measure over- a year earlier iif "ling S
and death losses are normal and if rate of lay is maintained. At present
there is. no basis for predicting death losses. Culling rates may exceed '
those of 1949 -if .springtime egg prices are markedly. lower.than a yeap. 'lf".
If rate of lay changes it is likely to be upward in keeping with the p. .:.
tren4. .

N "i. *


41










. p p.tl on .ltt p m o .. T I : ". -fa output rarity
.'' .., I .$azu pb.ratore .. *j, (1935.39=100) ., ratio
".: t *a iabsa tura'. .__ _
Million .- 4T r ... iTerAnt Percent


29

19
19
19


30.2 4.3
*. ,..31.0 .... .... 1.8
S .'' ,:VS0::: 2.,7.
S3.01 .r 3.4
3 31L8 a.4
36 .. ; 5.1
, : 30o .9 ... 5 1 :- '
38. -: 3 ;. 4.3
3 .. .5. 4.5 .
t0o. 30.3 "- 3 ..5
41 : 30.0 6.4
1 : 29.0 9.1
t3 26.7. -12.1
S 25.5. .12.5
S : 25.2 12.8 .
46 26.8 15.0
47 : 27.6 17.8
48 : 27.4 16.1
49 l/ 27.8 14.0


95

.. ". -- -, 101
S- -, :- 93
... .. 79
96
o-8
... : .; *' ,108
:.. -105-
: 106
S -' 110-
... .114
128
125
130
.. .. 129
134
129
138O


* I t.. ,
80
*. i .* 64
* -55
60-
S 7.0
84
. 90
: 92-.
:77.
- .- "-- 77 .
: :80
.. 94'
-106
S:. 119 .
: 116
S .. 117
121
120
115
2/104


feliminary estimates
/p"-1.6eas kinauary to September.

.. If laying flocks are 3 or 4 percent larger than a year ago, output
44aJP through, June 1950. could supply 200 to 210 eggs per capital,
acii:e. aiowlngtorl normal exports, ha-bching requirements and a substantial
Saomula tion of eggs in comnercial'cold storage. If storage stocks of
.shell and .frozen are to be built up to the levels of July 1, 1948, the
.200-to 210 eggs.per capital which would remain would be about the same as
S conevir uMed domestically in comparable recent past pe.riods. The record
r lzupry-Jtne er capital apparent disappearance was'.208 eggs ini 1947. In
S cent years, tlhe surplus after commercial riQuirements, at support prices,
has ben Aaeaorbed by Government purchases..

Many. birds from the January laying flock will be used as, layers in
th6 last hq'f. of 1950.. Beginning in about Auguat., however, the total num-
'be .':of layere will be' substantially influenced by the addition of puillets
frao the 1950 hatch. At present the size.of that hatch 16 uncertain'. If
Y it 'shows .only a.. moderate decline from 1949, egg production in the last half
of-1950 may. be near.that bft this year. In addition, there is a prospect
for larger commerolal cold-storage stocks of, eggs in. 1950 than in 1.949.


.. .it
*1 :*









Egg prices will not average as high in 1950 as in 194B.. .ea .i .
increased supplies through at least the first 6 months, and th1pr,.eu0pshtq
for a slightly 16wer demand, average springtime prices my fall .i: at:
10 or 15 percent from 1949:.unless price supportss are establish dtlo.
tain a higher level.

Moderately lower egg prices, if they boeur in the sprin.ot. .-'
may help prevent a surplus later in the year Lower springtime p...p it .,
will induce smaller baby ohiok placements for farm laying fltoptk 'Vqep- i
ments. This would result in lower egg production later in the yea .

The prospect for lower prices in the fall and early winter oft 19W
than at present is influenced by the likelihood that the increase then I,.;
storage holdings (over 1949) will offset to some extent the possibleao4-.;
crease in egg production at that time. As a result, the total supply fa!t.i
the fall and early winter of 1950 may be little different than in 194.
But it my be better distributed from month to month on aooppt of the
greater flexibility possible in timing the useq-of storage supplies au ..
compared with current production. The, consequent smoothing of prioe peaks.:|
and the slightly lower demand expected then, may result in a steadier but .
lower fall market in 1950 than in 1949.

Fewer Pullets to be Saved for Egg Production
in 1950; Extent of Decline to Depend
on Springtime Egg Prices

In the past, annual changes in the numbers of pullets saved for .
farm flock replacements have been closely related to poultrymen's returmo
during the hatching season and in the months immediately preceding. The
egg-feed price ratio is a simple indicator of returns to the egg producer.,
On the basis of the past relation between the egg-feed price ratio .and
poultrymon's responses, if egg prices next. spring are moderately lcutot S
placements on farms next spring will also be moderately smaller.

Even if springtime egg prices in-1950 fall to moderately beis .949-.' :4
the egg feed ratio would indicate that the number of chickens faise3 its
1950 vill be larger than in 1948. A moderate drop in egg prices, en is if:
feed prices do not decline substantially from present levels, woild .esuil 'b
in an egg-feed ratio more favorable" than the adverse monthly ratios iwhia.h.
influenced the1948 output of chicks. For the twelve months prior to
September 1949, layers from the 1948 output of chicks made up the majority
of the national laying flook, Egg production in that period was adoe43to .i
for all commercial requirements at prices which averaged only alight "
above support levels. This suggests that a 1950 hatch somewhat small ..
than 1949, though larger than 1948, will not reduce donemtio egg oou ,. .a I!
tion to levels below those recently experienced. Moderating influeanp -"
which will hold young chicken numbers in 1950 nearer to high 1949 lCA.::
than might otherwise be expected are the ample feed supplies and the '.,
availability of labor.


. 7P. i:,











i r t .. .raised

." ou:2 e a T


3 .: .24 700.1
'' 1" 751




V i 710498
,' ...' 13 "" 715 .
'. 9., 601
S 114,
124 .97
IDA 63L
11.5 745
13.2 84L
S 247. 1,0021
3 112 832
325 .915
n1 7.46 .
S637
S 124 _/ 74.9
RN :,.; .j ..,,


January 1 :
fAn11n :


"Mr" 'i '



244
0

212

249
215
254
2025
240o
278
319
350
301
325
285
85
268


P ia:sv art folloiB: Preceding Noveabar.1; preceding December, 2; Janua



Table 4.- Egg-food price ration, and chicken raised

: : New England Middle Atlantic
i' a : Egg-feed a Chickens Egg-feed : Chick
P rice ratio* a raised a ario ratio* : raise
aA PotS" miio n Pounds Mill

S ;. 4 11.6 23. 11.6 6
13.1, 28 13.7 7
:B 1 04..:-* 1. 34. 15.4 C
f. .. 31 .11.2 8
23.7. 34 .13.8
S, 11.9 22 12.0
,, ... 25 12.5
; 23 12.2 6
4.. .: 8 13.9 1/.
S '* eft rth Cntral South Atlantic

S' 0.8 211 9.6 6
S:i .'.:,. 246 11.6 .
a 115.3 286 12.8 10
I .1.8 239 10.2 5
S ..12.9 259 11.7 9
g- 12.1 215 11.2 2
.1 -.. .. 216 11.0 7
s 8.8 163 20.2 7
Sa 12.5- /196 12.0

S-, It h Central otai
I" .96 a %: 90 11.0
S 12 327 101 13.5
S..6 120 15.2 .3
a 30. 94 12.1
S* 12.0 10 .13.6 3
S 11.2 4i 12.9
7. .. 83 11.7
.' .9.5 72 U0.7
S 124 88 13.2


- ---m- r- r---n n -
a Chickens 5 Pullets on fame
raise sJianar 1 following


Percent


SEg-fihd
price ratio
Percent

.102.
105
99.
91
107
105
77
109

76
105
115
72
121
111
83
111
115
111
76
114
93
95
87
130


ry, 3; February, 4; March, 5; April, 3;



by regions, 1941-49


East North Central


Egg-feed :
price ratio* :
Pounds


:ens
aed

2
2
04

1o
1_




'5


F6
11


3
30.
10

!2
U.


Chickens
raised
.illi.ons


10.1 13
12.8 156
14.4 184
11.0 154
12.5 176
11.6 1 U3
10.9 141
9.5 117
12.4 1/143
East South Central

9.0 67
n 11.6 78
12.6 89
10.2 73
11.4 76
11.3 70
10.6 67
9.5 63
12.0 l 68

Pacific


11.6
12.8
15..
11.8
13.6
12.0.
12.2
10.6
12.7


SI42
45
53
42
51
38
.41
40
1/46


'4


I







A,
Hi



I

'a'








a


a6 avn gef mithlF rntls fellowIe Prceding Normber, 11 preceding Defbler, 2; JanUary, 3; Febrary, I
fp April, 3 MWay, 1; mIpt fr the year 19%41 which I based an the meths Jauaryn to May only.


. L
i-lo -1;- 1fl-


Ferceant
103
10 .

107
104
91
S104 *
102
86
102
109 .
84
108e
107
91
118 .,
113
119
03
110
82
100
86
n 211


94
103
100

110 ,
86
213
105
94
. u6
115
110
86
108
88
100
9k


.





















supplies for 1950.


. .... S.


Stocks of frozen poultry -at the. beginning of 1950 probably.
considerably larger than a year earlier.. These stocke will tEdoll:
amount of turkey -- perhaps as much as 120 million pounds -- wv1ilOJ.f W
restaurant trade competes directly with chicken.. There is a poassi .....
that these turkey stocks may remain in storage unless the prevallis i
is more favorable than the Government paying price already nq
July 1950. Despite this possibility, as long as they last these .
will be a considerable buffer to any potential substantial increa:b"
poultry prices. At the same time, the opportunity to-reduce bro 4 7 e
placements in the event of a sharp price downturn means that, at lit ."
until farm chickens are marketed in volume, such a possible sha Torp a.'
downturn would be relatively short-lived. .. .

These circumstances may govern the poultry situation unti t..,.'
May or June, and result in fairly steady prices until then. Bat i1* tswp
and following months, marketing of farm chicken will assume substitA .'
proportions. Mature birds will be marketed in proportion to naberp o: ".
January layers, where a 3 or 4 percent increase is already anticlpats$4 .
Even if the 1950 hatch of chicks is reduced, the seasonal. increa. .i
marketing of farm young stock will be substantial. These Gonsidq
make the poultry price outlook after mid-year less favorable to.
This may be particularly so if by then there is indicationn oft ..Am
large turkey crop, or weakening of competing red meat prices ana
quence of increased pork supplies.

Increased Efficiency of Broiler.Production
Improved Industry's Competitive Position -

The production period in the specialized broiler industry t1 .
short--12 to 14 weeks, after 3 weeks of incubation--that growers faN i.fVl
unfavorable market situations can reduce operations more quickly 1
any other segment of the poultry industry. In recent years, such
have been few because market conditions and price' ratioa have., by. 44 r
been favorable. Advances in nutrition, breeding, and .management, ha.
proved efficiency to the point' where under field editions a pmo
can be attained for each three pounds -of feed, although this is nob .f..
industry average. The industry has steadily expanded, a shown in .t


.. .. ..
.. "


:. :
1:.".5 .





















*iW..-S4orAt.. dcumulations of .&g Seen
ar4 50 EMected to'ftgn with
0oe 2f Frozen Poultry
...I.. b commercial accumulation.of eggs for cold storage in 1949 vas the
I'n'ce 1916. Indications are that storage activity in 1950 will be far
di! thf e low level of 1949 and-may be close to that of 1948, In 1949 peak
Iial storage holdings of shell and frozen eggs combined were 43 percent
-e',tah the 1948 peak. The peak commercial holdings in 1948 were equiva-
* .i* 11.6 million cases, against 6.6 million cases (equivalent) in 1949.

: ..Several considerations point to larger storage accumulations in 1950.
t'priagt'ize prices are low but fairly stable, the expectation for a substan-
a: d .fre ice between spring and fall prices will be increased. In addition,
a btirTlity probably will be encouraged by the favorable outturn of 1949
%ae activities. October egg futures at Chicago, which quotations are a
ft of value of storage eggs, rose from about 49 cents or less in 'the early
wtof the 1949 into-storage season to over 56 cents as a peak in mid-Sep-t
t.. While this price broke sharply early in dctober, actual stocks of shell
tyhe were, Bs mall that the adverse effects of the price-reaction may
e t uack y holders of stored shell eggs, so the 1949 egg-storage sea-
abe condeafrd a-profitable one. In the past, the profitability-of the
SA.:year'b storage, operations has had an important effect on the volume
D e i~~n the current year.
Froen poultry stocks usually are at or near a seasonal peak at the be-
....g of each calendar year. The holdings accumulated in 1948 were small on
.awitt tfhe small supDly end consequent relatively high price for poultry.
p iVeTag.e farm price of chicken now is about 23 percent lower than at
ft t.; 'year. This reduces the costs of accumulating and carrying

Tbo M lnA ovemn.t' of poultry began ohe month earlier in 1949 than in.
S, be. e -d.& onally large supplies exceeded current consumption require-
.S ie-r ya greater extent than last year.. The steady inmovement that
been reported since August, plus the price insurance provided for stored
vs, under the terms of the turkey support programs, lead to.the expectation
-oen poultry stocks at the beginning of 1950 will be far larger than
hldigs of January 1., 1949, and perhaps almost as large as the
.and of total frozen poultry for January 1, 1948, "
]I~ :; ,:'::&!









Tear Turkeys *
: poultry. :-Bhx .
S Mil. Ib. Mil. lb. Thous.. ease* 1 .
1930 : 10, 141 l o.A0 '1- 115 4
1931 : 5 105 9. .9507 114- l -''
1932 : 10 117 ...6339 100 ..
.933 3 15 ..112 9364 103
1 .934 16 .124 *' -. 965 116 .,.-
1935 : 19 132 7 ..595 108 v
1936 17 107. 7,058 .12 .
1937 3: 5 188 8,548 165
1938 : 26 124 6,255 139
1939 : 23 139 6,977 141
1940 : 52 168 .7j513 150
1941 :61 208 6427 .. -.179.
1942 : 50 218 7,935 278
1943 3: 6 188 8,871 323 ....
1944 : 37 226 11 335 .354
1945 : I 269 6,120 256 .:
1946 108 356 9,871 265
1947 : 128 317 4,203 237 A
1948 :83 317 5,669 267
1949 : 51 160 2.220 167 :
./ Beginning with January, 1-3,', the conversion factor for frozen e- .gg --- ll
-egg equivalent has been 37 1/2 pounds equal 1 case. Prior to tnat date, rl .4 '
were' lover and a variable conversion was employed to reflect the yields 04 t '.
prevalent.
Turkey Cro for 12 )0 Exec.ted Laro, r ....
Though Under 1949;j Carry-over an Influence; TI
Despite the near-record size of the 1949 turkey crop,' the. p :
turkey-feed price ratio is very near the long-time average. At 9..
for the month of September 1949, this ratio was within O 1 pound4..
1938-47 average (120 months). This is practically as favorable a8." .;,:|
average of the ratios which have resulted in an average annual. i .k...
almost 6 percent in turkey poults raised from the early thirties ti : "
1949,
While the .1949 turkey-feed ratio'is less favorable to proa a "
than the ratio which prevailed when "-the short turkey crop of 194$ V.."a.'b..
1949 prices have not fallen to the 90 percent of parity level whiOtch 4tb
floor for Government support. Even at the support level, the turkfil $ ".
price ratio would not be lower than 9.1 pounds during the remainder 4t I i.
marketing season. _/ Such a ratio, if it were to occur, would'1leetMf.
turkey numbers from the already high levels of 1949, but not heoews&a
to the low IRval of number that were raised in 1948. A

Jf Assuming unchanged prices tfbr turkey ration. -
*.. .:-;.











Bot live'" price during the slaughter season, is provide& by the an-
.pamt that the Department-of Agriculture will buy winter-killed
ks nder-apefied conditions In July 1950, if such turkey has not
thea und a fnd aeercial outlet. This support may hold turkey prices
t he: eason at. a-'level that will be an influence toward maintained
3. output. ,


: table 6. Turkey-reed price ratio and turkeys raised, 1930 to date


:,,,",, Turkey-feed a Turkeys raised : ha e f
i. ear : price : following : Turkey-fee
S ratio / : year : price
.. .. : : ratio I/
I, Pounds million Pounds

... 0 .. 10.7 18
'31 : 14.6' 22 + 3.9
4932 11.7 23 2.9
'..:.933 8.0 22 3.7
*34 7.6 21 0.4
S.35 : 12.2 28 + 4.6
I 936 : 6.6 26 5.6
1937 : 10.7 27 + 4.1
S.:938 : 12.5 34 + 1.8
'. .1939 : 9.4 34 3.1.
~ 90 10 9.4 33 0
:19641 : 10.1 33 + 0.7
'1942 : 12.4 32 + 2.3
; ,.9193 : 11.3 36 1.1
4. 11.9 44 + 0.6
11.5f : : 11.1 41 0.8
1:Z : 10.2- 35 .9
i'.1947 : 7.7 32 2.5
i.1948 13.1 41 + 5.4



SWeighted averxee of monthly ratios as follows:
Y:. 193 Q-1944,Ootober, 1; November, 4; December, 4;
.:. to date,October, 2; November, 4; December,
. '. ...


am preceding year
d : Turkeys raised
: following
Million ear cent
Million Percent


+ 4
+ 1
- 1
- 1
+ 7
- 2
+ 1
+ 7
0
- 1
0
- 1
+ 4
+ 8
- 3
- 6
- 3
+ 9


following January,1.
3; following January,


C xk
*. "A:

:" '**! ? I






' ': ..
""!:
0
I if


'!!
14?


1











The lower prices (compared with 1949. average) whibh areile4 lO
for the 1.SO Ui n of eggs, chickens (inaludint-broiler,.h sad -ie
will rnult in reduced receipts from'"sa"is *of.these -te s M~1t prow
tive reduotiens in prices will have nd djpreaiable in-ome oftAts 3 i
inmresed volume of sales, except possibly fob eggs. This -yiStl U ...
set is not likely to hold rross receipts from poultry at- the 1940* i
which for the four major categories will total sli.Jhtly over 3,000': ..."i
lion dollars. *. ':

Prospective cash receipts from sales of poultry products i 109 A I
are as follows: eggs, 1,818 Trillion dollars; farm chickens, .50S f5*Ai .
dollars; commneroiel broilers, 451 million dollars; and turkeys, 2aSS gtmi-
lion dollars. In 1948 cash receipts for these same items were egg .
1,857 million dollars; farm ohiikens, 542 million dollars; broiler4z`':' "-
Al81 million dollars; and turkey, 255 million dollars. The 1944 total :
of these 4 it3mis was 3,035 million dollars, a record.

Since noultrymen's aggregate costs are not .-xpectcd to fall asrplA
if at all, declines in rotcints will be ruflcoted almost entirely i t |
income. lTe snall declines likely in poultry ration prices (the t '.
single cost item to poultry produc-:.rs) may be partly offset by imr ws.
in other itemn, particularly taxes, fueL and r-'placcment costs for 690op-..
ment.

Foreigi Currency Devaluation Makes U, S. a
F.vorablo .%ark-t; Increased Canadian
Exports to U. S. & Posslbility

The devaluation of currencies by many foreign nations in SsptaE bet
may induce trade shifts in egcs which will affocct U'nited States mark ,:
A g enral effort of the devaluation is to make the United States a .
favorable place in Y-hich other countries mi'ht sell, and a less fayvon s:.
country from which to buyE Since devaluation ooocurred during a pertI" '.
when egg production abroad is rising, the realignm.-nts of buyers a.a:.'. .'".
sellers in the norld mark-t may have repercussions in exports to the '
United States. .:;

Devaluation is not likely to s'7riously affect U. S. exports o. .
oggs. Commercial exports and shipments from the Unit.-d States, aOL vr .an:k
one-half m:i.lion cases annually over the five yrars beginning with 1941, ,
are roletively small, ard ire not likely to be much affected since t8..
are mostly to convsni'mtly located hard-ourrency areas. Our exports w 7-
dried ems, under Government cuspicos, also may be relatively unaffoqoet I
Eincc the t'n- of -xport invol-ve lov :rnment-to-Government Arrang ~It,,.:
rather thar the %!rc" play of price and demand.


. :










of recent Canadian egg exports to destinations outside of North America.
Ittil reoantly the Canadian Special Products Board required prospective
.eg exporters. te 4eliverjl0.times as.many eggs for shipment to the United
S gfamdom as. were intended for export elsewhere. At present (October 13)
.op new egg agreement for 1950 :has been concluded between Canada and Great
.IBritain. The prospective decline .in-Canadian egg production will not fully
compensate jor the lows of the British market, if an agreement is not
negotiated.

The U. S. tariff on hen's eggs from Canada is 3 1/2 cents per dozen.
Recent Montreal prices are compared with New York prices in table 7 below.
jn 1948 and until devaluation in September 1949 the official exchange rate
waa 100 Canadian cents per U. S. dollar; since devaluation, the effective
- '*a6e is about 91 cents per U. S. dollar.
F.: able 7.- Eggs: Prices per dozen for Grade A large in.Montreal and for
White Extras in New York, selected dates, 1948-49,

I^.T : 19.48 0 : 1949
: Date Montreal New York Montreal New York
:Cents., Canadian Cents, U. S. Cents, Canadian Centa, U.S.

S".an. 3 48 56.5 49 54.5
'bn. 31 43 47.5 44 45.4
Feb. 28 : 44.5 52.0 49 47.0
SMar. 25 44 48.5 45 49.0
Apr. 25 : 45 47.2 46.5 54.5
".-Y 23. : 3.5 49.0 47 50.4
June 20 45.5 51.5 57.5 50.5
Ju 18 51.5 50.2 68 56.5
SAe. 15 60.5 59.0 63.5 58.0
.aet. 12 : 56.5 61.5 67 67.0
0t. 10 68.5 66.5 63.5
Nov. 7 70.5 67.0
J)ea. 5 51.5 56.6

1/Where given date is a Saturday or Sunday, quotation is for Monday
ao3loving. .

4'






p.
.4,
I.


- ------------------ 16 --- -
Table 8 .- Price of eggs received by farmers~ disposable isd .s.
and civilian egg consumption, 1935 4.9
(aa for ...S...
Prices of: c2ia :
eggs Disposable ;. eg- Price-of iassaps .
r received : income eegg fSe 1
.by fam~ras,per capital t received .
per doen> :per capital p reepve0 ,p4r 4 ..
-per dozen ... .by-farmer. ..
Cents Dollars Numbers Percent Percent


1935 :
1936 '
1937 :
1938
1939 :
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947. -
1948
1949 i"
'. S


23.4
21.8
21.3
20.3
17.4
18.0
23.5
30.0
37.1
32.5
37.7
37.6
45.3
47.2
46.7


453
513
549
501
533
570
686
861
964
1,058
1,076
1,113
S1,.187
S1,294
1,278


278 .
287
306. .
308
311
317
311
316
346
350
397
374
-379.
386
374


indication as of October 1949.
. _WIndications as of October 1949.


112
105
102
98
84
87
113
144
*infl


89
S101
108
98;
S 104
112
134
169 ,
".<,N-


156 20 '
181 2a .

. 218 : i
.. 227 253. :"
225 20
225 .2.-


Ohl :e o .'5,3 .: "iM '"21 5y" ,. .0../I. 3 1262 08904 0009


z :x
OFFICIAL. .N .r

EAE-PES-139-10/49-04300 ..
Permit No. 1001 .



DOCUKEIR T M ,.
rss;:6 .* *'a4ims| |-
.- MS6 AIBSIES


Yea