Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
May 1942
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00072

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text





e



4t-2"-< 'SITU ACTION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


_2_ MAY 1942



EGG PRODUCTION ON FARMS. AND EGG-FEED PRICE
RATIO. UNITED STATES. 1910-41
PIOuco I mIiil
DOZENS Eggaa -lead I ...
ID"* 4.000 Z- 25-/9-- .P_


St Ot M. .tCbLFaIl


e16 s1t. *-- 0 D .U -lb IC...t


EGG PRODUCTION PER LAYER. AND EGG-FEED PRICE
RATIO. UNITED STATES. 1910-41
PRODUCTION I I
PER BIRD I I
Egg~teed price r.aro .






100 -
As0 s IR I -. I \




9 1 Egga production per layer


1910 1915 1920 1925 1990 1935
UROlWrME OF 1008 PRODUCED PRI REP AND PUlLLaT ON PAmINm JA i


1940


.I Mll Of -MiEbinhai


11 c-i .... atan ic-M


EGG PRODUCTION RESPONDED RAPIDLY TO THE FAVORABLE EGG-FEED PRICE RELATJOhSHIP IN
1941 AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IS TAKING PLACE T NH I S YEAR. IN MID-APRIL
1942 A DOZEN EGGS W A S EQUIVALENT IN PRICE TO A LITTLE LESS FEED THAN A YEAR EARLIER
BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN AVERAGE, INDICATING A FAVORABLE PRICE SITUATION FOR PRODUC-
ERS. (IN THIS ISSUE POULTRY PRODUCT-FEED PRICE RATIOS ARE PRESENTED TO REPLACE T H E
FEED-POULTRY PRODUCT PRICE RATIOS FORMERLY PUBLISHED).









STATISTICAL SUNMANY

UNIT I TEAR
IT UNIT ARIL AVEMI 1941 142PRL IRC
PITOD 1ATEMO IE ARCH| APR IL MARCB APR IL BADLESR


Number of layers on farm .
Number of eggs laid per hen .
Total farm production of eggs .
Stocks. eggs:
Privately owned, shall .
Privately owned, frozen .
USDA owned, shell . .
USDA owned, frozen . .
Total . .
Purchase., ael,. USDA:
Dried2 . .
Shell, direct . .
Shell, blue stamp3 . .
Commercial hatchery operations:
Eggs not . .
Chicks hatched . .
Receipts:
Poultry. dressed, 4 markets .
Poultry, live. Chjcago4 .
Poultry, live, New York4 .
Poultry, live, Midwest, per plant .
Fowl, live, Midweat, per plant .
Stocks, poultry: 1
Broilers . .
Fryers . .
Roasters . .
Fowls . .
Turkey . .
Duck . .
Miscellaneou sand unclassified .
Total poultry . .
Prices received by farmers:
Eggs, per dozen . .
Chicken., per pound . .
Turkeys., per pound . .
Eggs, percentage of parity .
Chickens., percentage of parity .
Turkeys, percentage of parity .
All farm commodities. (1910-14 = 100).
Chickens and eggs. (1910-14 = 100) .
Wholesale prices, Chicago:
Eggs, fresh firsts per dozen .
Live heavy hena per pound .
Live broilersa, B. R., per pound .
Live roaaster, light. 1. R., per pound
Live roasters, heavy, W. R., per pound
Cash farm income:5
Total marketing . .
Poultry and eggs . .
Price ration:
Chicago, Broiler. B.R.,. feed .
Chicago. Light roasters, W. R.,- feed.
Farm, Egg feed . .
Farm. Chicken-feed . .
Farm, Turkey-feed . .
Feed cost per cut., farm poultry ration.
Wholesale food prices (193S-39 = 100) .
Retail food prices (1935-39 = 100) .
Prices paid. int. and tazea 1910-14=100)
Retail prices (ELS):
Roasters, dressed, per lb. ..
Eggs, strictly fresh, per dozen .
Nonagricultural employees' compensation
(1924-29 100) . .


Millions
Number
Mil. cases

1.000 cases
1,000 case#
1.000 cases
1.000 cease
1.000 casae

Mil. lb.
1.000 cases
1.000 camea

Millions
Millions

Ni lb.
Care
Cars
1,000 lb.
1,000 lb.

Nil. lb.
Nil. lb.
Mil. lb.
Mil. lb.
Mil. lb.
Mil. lb.
Mil. lb.
Mil. Ib

Cent
Cents
Cents
Percent
Percent
Percent
Index nos.
fndex nos.

Cent a
Cents
Cents
Cents
Cents

Mal. doll.
Mil. dols.

Lb. feed
Lb. feed
Lb. feed
Lb. feed
Lb. feed
Dollars
Index nos.
Index noe.
Index nom.

Cents
Cents

Index noa.


1931-40
1931-40
1931-40

1931-40
1931-40

1931-40







1931-40
1936-40
1936-40
1932-40
1932140

1936-40
1936-40
1936-40
1936-40
1936.40
1936-40
1936-40
1936-40

1931-40
1931.40
1936-40
1931-40
1931-40
1936-40
1931-40
1931-40

1931-40
1936-40
1936-40


1936-40
1936-40

1936-40
1936-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40
1931-40

1931-40


298
16.6
13.8

3,866
1,540

6,046







15.6
311
761
9.2
8. 1

6.1
5.8
13.5
10.7
23.4
1. 2
11.4
72.2

15.4
14.1
15.8
71
96
85
93
86

17.3
18.2
22.9


515
61

17.3
20.8
13.6
12.9
12.9
1.18
91.3
95. 7
128

30.5
27.6

83.9


315
15.0
13.1

1,065
1.691
25
0
2.781

0
72
165

334
194

18.4
262
473
7.3
6.2

5.6
8.0
23.0
22.0
47.0
1.7
19.7
126.9

16.4
14.4
15.2
72
98
82
103
90

17.8
17.4
21.1
21.2
23. 1

610
56

16.9
16.9
14.2
12.4
13.1
1.16
95.1
98.4
129

32.1
29.4

119.9


301
16.9
14.2

2,816
2.654
215
0
5.685

0
387
182

356
238

19.2
318
655
7.6
6.0

4.5
6.0
18.0
18.0
36.2
1.7
16.9
101. 1

19.7
15.7
15.5
87
107
83
110
104

21.6
19.4
21.9
21.4
23.8

65s
72

16.6
16.2
15.9
12.7
12.5
1.24
98.5
100.6
129

33.2
32.5

121.9


354
15.5
15.2

1.702
2.549
96
315
4.662
26.7
83
168

393
242

19.6
293
648
6.2
8.0

6.6
9.5

26.5

I.,
25.3
139.7

25.8
18.0
19.9
98
105
92
146
130

28. 2
22.3
24.5
24.9
27.2

901
119

14.4
14.6
15.5
10.8
12.0
1.66
121.5
118.6
150
35.7
39.7

145.4


a _______________ L .6. 6 _________ 6 A I ~ I


'End of month. Frozen eggs converted to case equivalent.
2Includes purchases for future delivery.
3Adjusted for wastage in distribution.
4Car equivalent of receipts by freight, truck and express.
SFisures for 1941 and 1942 are not strictly comparable: figures for poultry and egga for 1942 are based
on revised production data and include broilers.


343
17.5
16.6

4.594
4.068
56
177
8.895

56.8
21

423
283
22.4
307

6.3
4.8

5.7
5.1
15.7
17.6
38.4
1.4
15.4
96.4

25.6
18.4
19.8
96
107
91
150
131

29.3
21.1
24.9
25.3
28.3

134

14.6
14.8
15.4
11. 1
11.9
1.67
114.8
119.6
181

35.7
39.4


114
104
11I

163
10a
26
--
156

-5
102

119
119

117
97
137
a83
80

127
85
U7
98
98

82
91
95

130
117
128


136
128

136
109
114
118
119

148
186

91
97
87
95
135
127
119
117

108
121

121





PES-65


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


SummaB ry

Consumer purchasing power diverted from products with controlled prices

may eventually increase demand and prices for poultry products. No maximum

prices for poultry and eggs were established by the general price order of

April 28, since prices for these products were below minimum levels at which

ceilings for farm products may be established as stipulated in the Emergency

Price Control Act of 1942.

Previous indications of large chicken output this year are being

verified. Hatchery output of baby chicks in April was 19 percent larger than

in April 1941 and the number of young chickens on farms May 1 was 16 percent

more than last year. Production of turkeys also will be considerably larger

this year. The stronger demand for all meats will tend to offset the effects

on prices of the larger supplies, so that prices received by farmers for chickens

and turkeys probably will average higher this year than last.

Egg production will decline seasonally until November but is likely to

continue much larger than a year earlier. In April the seasonal high point

in egg production increases over last year were 14 percent in the number of

layers and 17 percent in the output of eggs. Because of the favorable relation-

ship between egg prices and feed prices, farmers continue to delay marketing

their old hens and to feed better than usual. Egg prices throughout the year

are likely to be favorable for egg production, since large quantities will be

purchased for lend-lease and consumer demand is strong. In early May wholesale

prices of eggs at Chicago declined somewhat but in mid-May were about the same

as a month earlier and about 30 percent higher than in May 1941.


- 3 -








The supply of feed grains per animal unit in 1942-43 may be considerably

smaller than in 1941-42 and feed grain prices probably will be higher. Supplies

of high-protein feeds, on the other hand, probably will be larger and prices

of such feeds may average a little lower.

-- May 22, 1942

REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Number of Layers Continuing to Increase
Relative to a Year Earlier

During recent months the number of layers on farms declined less than
usual and in April was about 14 percent larger than in April 1941 and the
largest on record for the month. Increases over a year earlier by regions
were as follows: North Atlantic, 7 percent; East North Central, 10 percent;
West North Centrnl, 17 percent; South Atlantic, 15 percent; South Central, 19
percent; Western, S percent. Numbers were the largest on record in the North
Atlantic and South Central regions and were only a little below previous records
in other regions.

During April the average number of eggs laid per bird in the United States
was about equal to the previous record for the mcnth established in 1938. The
April rate was about 3 percent over April last year. Increases over a year
earlier in the rate of lay, in general, were largest in regions with greatest
increases in numbers of layers. Increases in egg production by regions over
the April 1941 output were as follows: North Atlantic, 10 percent; East North
Central, 14 percent; West North Central, 23 percent; South Atlantic, 18 percent;
South Central, 22 percent; Western, 10 percent.

Receipts of eggs in April at primary markets in the mid-West were about
50 percent larger than a year earlier. Receipts in Pacific Coast States were
up about 25 percent, and at egg auctions in the East, over 30 percent. But
because of hervy Government buying in producing areas, largely in dried form,
receipts at terminal markets were a little smaller than in April last year.
Apparent domestic consumption was about the same as in April 1941.

Dried Egg Industry Now Using About 2
IMillion Cases of Eggs per Month

The estimated output of dried eggs in April was 21.7 million pounds,
equivalent to about 2.2 million cases of shell eggs. On the average, a case of
shell eggs yields approximately 10 pounds of dried whole egg. Dried egg plants
are located mostly in the midwestern States and encourage record production in
that area by offering farmers an exceptionally favorable outlet for eggs. In
addition to the liquid eggs being dried immediately, considerable quantities of
such eggs are being placed in freezers for drying later in the year when current
farm production of eggs is at a lower level. Shell eggs also are being stored
for this purpose.


- 4 -


MAY 1942




PSS-65 5 -

Duritg April, the Into-storage movements of both shell and frozen eggs
were the largest on record. On May 1 increases compared to last year in stocks
of shell eggs were 53 percent, and in stocks of frozen eg-s, 60 percent, with
total stocks 56 percent larger. Foldings of shell and frozen eggs in the
United States Department of Agriculture were reduced considerably during April.

Eg Prices Changed Little'During the
Month ELO.ing in MJd-May

Bgg prices advanced slightly during late April but declined somewhat
in the first half of May, leaving mid-May prices about the same as in mid-April.
Compared with a year earlier, however, prices at Chicago in .mid-May were nearly
a third higher.

The average price received by farmers for eggs in mid-April -- 25.6
cents per dozen -- was 30 percent higher than last year and the egg-feed price
ratio, although a little less favorable than in April last year, continued
unusually favorable for egg production.

Fowl Marketings Continuing Smallpr
Than a Year Earlier

Reductions in number of layers on farms this year have been relatively
smaller tnan last year, and receipts of live fowl at midwest markets have con-
tinued smaller than in corresponding weeks of 1941. The extent of decline
from a year earlier has been reduced in recent weeks, however. As a result of
the large production of younm chickens this spring, receipts of live poultry
at New York and Chicago together have been a little larger than last year.
Production of chickens in some broiler areas has declined moderately, but out-
put for the country as a whole continues large.

Receipts of dressed poultry, fresh and frozen, at the four principal
markets continues to average larger than in corresponding periods of 1941.
Net withdrawals of .1ll storage poultry in Anril were about 14 million pounds
(8s percent) above the previous record withdrawals for the month and about 17
million pounds more than in April 1941.

Prices of Live Chickens and Fowl Declined
Slightly Dvriig the Past Month

Prices of heavy hens and leghorn hens were steady during the past month,
but prices of medium heavy hens were somewhat lower in mid-May than in mid-
April. Prices of young chickens averaged slightly lower in mid-May than a
month earlier. Prices of hens were a little higher than last year, and prices
of young chickens were about 30 percent higher than in mid-May 1941. During
the third week of May, prices of young chickens advanced considerably in
eastern markets.

POULTRY PRODUCTS FOR LEND-LEASE

Eggs andgg Products

Purchasing of agricultural products under the lend-lease authority was
inaugurated in late March and early April of 1941. Previously the Department of




MAY 1942 6.1 ,

Agriculture purchased shell eggs as P price-e_.mporting measure, and--continued
this program for several morthc after M&rch 14.'1., acr.epting offers made in
terms of UniteA St..tes wholr.=-Le and rut2i.i ri.eles (Un'.ted 3tate.e: StauCards
No. 1 wholeF-Li grale or e. ,ser). Offers wefr cce, tod the ia after: being
received, and delivery took place within tea aL.Js Uf the acceptance date.

Beginning September 15, 141 purchasing of shell erfo of export grades
was begun and the former practice of p-rchasing wholesale and retail grade
egg's was diFcontinued. Terntative United States export grades, of relatively
hligh evergr~ oralitv, were developed ana adopted to meet lead-lease requi.reme.nts.
Purchasi2rg cgrs of eppnrt -grn.des continued u until late Febr'nary )912. Fur-hase
of eags r.f u.,l esle ?ra5cs primarily fcr price supporting purposes was re-
sumed in earl;.- March, 1942.

The frozen Mgg purchase program was inaugurated in early May 1941.
First purchaBes were made for delivery within 43 days, but the program was
lrter mnndifiud so that frozen ergs could be offered for currenL or future
delivery -. the ver'rr chros'ng the delivery date for each quantity cffored.
Ou SeptLiber 12 last year it': wa ano -uced a6b pur.rh-set of frot-:n egGs were
being disiontiniued. Deliveries continued for scmetiue after that date, however.

The &.i. e-a purchiase program was established in April 3)st year. The
first annour.,;ement :pecifc'. thrt delivery *.'us to be r.:ade within 45 days of the
acceptance date. A later a :u-ouaze-ni. callud. for do:J-ery within 15, 30 or
145 '&r; and this provlsioi %,s ;.o'lifie on .y .'5, 1 'li to peirz-it delivery at
ary date specified by the vendor. ur to i1;r:'. .1, 192. On Feut:uary P5, 1942
it was anuaurnced tikit offers vorl l be -acrepted fToh dJlivery an, time up to
Dpoe.embr j1, l.92. T'n e,- ,eit- the dri.d egg pr'vgram, purchase prices for
dried eg.-s for future delivery, New rork basis, have been announced by two-week
intervals du-".ng the nast several weeks.

By far the largest quantity of dried egg products p-irchased to date has
been spray-dried whole egg. In addAit'.on, quantities cf dried a'bu-men aad
dried y-!1: packed sEpa-ately in the p:oportion-s of 1 pound of dri.-d albumen to
2.5 pounds of dried. yclk, nnai dried al'ujen Lrpray &r-i parn nroeas) have been
purrhazEd. Dried egg products. as purchased., ive been pr.I=:ed largely in 150
and 200 nour.'. barrels. For some purposes the Dcpartment of Agriculture hao
contracted with firms to package conside-able quantities of the dried product
previously pur-hased in consumer-size packages of 5 ounces net.

At tines during the past year it has been desirable for the Department
to have part of its holdings of shell.eggc dried or exchanged for eggs pre-
viously died. In early June last year offers to process were invited and in
AuZust a procedure vae annrc.-ced thereby shell eggs owned by the Department of
Agriculture were exchdnged for dried eggs.

In addition to the procedures mentioned above, all of which were trans-
acted under the offer and acceptance plan, the Departnent has purchased eggs
on the Chicago and Ne/j York Mercantile Exchanges. E-'s were purchased directly
in some of the thirteen southern States by firms authorized to p-irchase eggs
from producers at previously announced prices. Both of these practices were





PES-65 7 -

primarily for price support purposes Pnd the eggs so obtained arc being used
for school lurnch programs and Rod Cross purposes, amorg others.

Canned Chickrn mnd Tu"key

Announcement of the program to purchase canned boned chicken was made
on September 3, 1941. Under this rrorar.:, purchases were made for delivery
within 30, 60 or 90 days after accept'-ae of t'.e offer. In an a:m-nouncment
released on October 8, the canned chit :'n nruLchase program was generally clari-
fied and procedures to be au-d w3re mpdd m>re d.-'fint. .. The class of poultry
from which the produce was obtained was to bc .;cifi&a in the offers. Old
cocks, roasters, or fc'-1 coLLd be used, and, L'.T.cpt for a tolciance of 20 percent,
only one class of pci..'.:y as to be inlvded ir any ct-nele lot as offered. The
purchase period was tio .xtrc> from Octo'er 15 to Decenraer 31, and the period of
delivery was to be srpcifi?" in the offer. In the last an1iouncedPent pertaining
to poultry (ma>ie on JD-cen'-e:r 1, 1941), e period of purchase was extended to
March 1, 1942 and offers for the sale of: .;anned turkey made from young toms also
were invited. As in previous instances, the period of delivery was to be
specified in the offer.

In the following tables the status of the United States Department of
Agriculture purchase program is summarized as of May 1, 1942.

Poultry products: I'urchases, deliveries and unfilled contracts,
United States Department of Agriculture

t hel : Frozen : 1 ; : n .ued : Canned
Itemes____ : es : .-'. : chicken : turkey
: Pc d Pcunds Pourds Pounds
Purchases in 1914
(Mar. 15-Dec. 31) ....:1.64,87. 66,1S),090 44,611.385 4,92S,4o4 1,190,520
Purchases in 1942
(Jan. 1-May 1) ......: L?.l15 C 172,1P q20 712,200 S4,Q00
Total ......;, 1 ,1 .C 0 1..,50305 5,6 L.o04 1,275,020
Monthly deliveries in
1942
January ............. : 23,000 902,720 9,497,600 1,3s4,320 9,500
February ............: :b,273 0 15,55.1,272 1,N73,568 359,0S4
March ...............: 115,779 0 9,917,037 1,444,972 420,146
April ............... : 37,301 0 18,508,25' 1,710,624 204,774
Unfilled contracts
as of May 1, 1942 : 1,442,613 76,700,430 80,000 291,016

Data from Agricultural Marketing Administration.
Conversion factors: 1 case of shell eggs yields 37.5 pounds of frozen eggs, or
10 pounds of dried eggs; 4 pounds of dressed chicken or turkey yields approximate-
ly 1 pound of canned product.




IMY 1942


Commitments of dried eggs for future delivery
as of :.ay 1, 1942

Month Comitment Month Commitment
: Pound s : Pounds

May ........: 18,.03,590 September *o.: 6,863,740
June *........: 9,837,465 October e*a, : 10,719,410
July **s.....* 5,8-3,745 November ....: 7,292,205
August *.....,: E,249,855 December go..: 4,971,795
Total (TPay-December) : 70,011,805

Data from Agricultural Marketing Administration.

During the first half cf I-ay the Department of Agric.ilture made the
following purchases for current and future delivery: shell egge 22,648 cases,
dried eggs about 17 million pounds.

Purchase Program for Poultry
Products Now in .ffect

Under nroprams now in operation, the Department of Agriculture is
purchasing dried eggs under the offer and acceptance plan for delivery during
any month in 1942. Jn recent weeks, dried eggs have been purchased under an
"announced price" plan. This procedure was adonted to provide processors an
opportunity to plan operations snmei"hat in advance, such as the storing of
shell eggs for drying later in the year. On ay" 1, combined stocks of shell
and frozen eggs were more than 3 million cases larger than last year. The
excess over a year earlier probably will be increased considerably by August 1,
the probable seasonal peak in holdings.

With respect to shell eggs the following programs are in effect:
(1) offer and acceptance plan for the purchase of Standards, Po. 1, or better,
in carload lots from anywhere in the United States and Standards, Ho. 4, or
better, in lots of 100 cases or more in certain southern States; and (2) direct
purchase plan whereby local firms are authorized bv the Department to pur-
chase egrs grading Standards, 10o. 4, or better in certain southern States in
lots of ten cases or more at previously announced prices. Egg pri.-es in
general have been well above the support level (85 percent parity) in the past
several weeks and consequently relatively few shell eggs have been purchased.

OUTL :10K

Chickens and 2rgs

Maximum prices for poultry products were not established by the General
Maximum Price Regulation Order because prices received by farmers for these
commodities are below the minimum levels at which ceilings cnn be established,
as stipulated in the Emergency Price Control Lct of 1942. This Act, as it
applies to poultry products was discussed in the February issue of this report.


- 8 -








The outlook for chickens and eg-s may be summarized as follows:

(1) The egg-feed price ratio probably will not average as high this
year as last but is likely to continue favorable for egg production.

(2) Favorable egg prices 1will encourage delayed marketing. of old hens
and better feeding than usual. Ege, production in the United States this year,
therefore, probably will be at leas' 13 percent larger than in 1941, which is
the goal established for production thls year.

(3) Large quantities to be taken for lend-lease a.nd stronger consumer
purchasing power probably will more than offset the effects on egg prices
of larger production this year.

(4) Because of the increase in the number of chickens raised on farms,
supplies of chicken this year and the number of layers at the beginning of
1943 will be larger than last year and by far the largest on record.

(5) Pecause of the stronger ~nnsumer demand, particularly for meats,
prices received by farmers for chickens may average higher this year than
last despite the prospective large ir-creose in svrplies.

Turkeys

Indications continue to point to a larger turkey crop this year than
last. In February farmers indicated their intentions to start 8 percent more
poults than in 1941. The outuut of poults frrim a sample of hatcheries in
April this year -ras 8 percent larger than in Apr.il 1941 and for several months
has been larger than a year earlier. Advance orders for poults on May 1 were
13 percent more than last year. '.ith a strong demand for all meats in prospect
it is likely that turkey prices will continue favorable for producers. Cash
farm income from turkeys this year, therefore, will be considerably larger than
in 1941.

Feed Supplies and Prices

Because of the increasing production of livestock and livestock
products the demand for feeds v-ill become crenter. As a result, the carry-
over of feed grains during 1942-43 may be reduced from a year earlier even
with larger production this year and larger inports of oats and barley from
Canada. Howr-ever, stocks at the end of 1942-43 are likely to be about average
unless crop yields of corn and oats in 1942 are below normal.

Feed grain prices in 1942-43 probably will be higher than in 1941-42
since sunvlies ner animal will be considerably smaller and the derand will be
stronger. Supplies of oilseed meals per animal, however, are likely to be
larger than in the current season and prices may a-rerare a little lower.

Price Ceilings to Have Little immediate
-'-ffect on 'eT-d Fri.-es

Although price ceilings have been established for all byoroduct feeds
except linseed meal, prices of all of these products, extent bran in certain


- 9 -


PES-65








cities, are below the ceiling levels and are likely to continue below such
levels fcr the next few months. 1,!o pr'.ce ceilings have been established for
feed Criins or for mixed feeds. The egg-feed price ratio in April vwas a
little less favorable than in April last year and although it may average
lower this year than last it is likely to continue favorable for egg-pro-
duction.

POULTRY "RODUCT-FEED PRICE RATIOS EXPRESSED
IN TE?,IS OF FEED

The Department of Agriculture has used two general methods of ex-
pressing ratios between prices of feed and prices of livestock products. For
the Dast se-eral years .ll ratios e::cent those for poultry products have been
exT dressed ir. terms of the amount of feed ore unit of the product would buy.
For noultry products the ratio has been ernressed as the quantity of product
required to purchase 100 pounds of feed. These have been called feed-egg,
feed-chicken, and feed-turkey rrice ratios. These ratios were computed by
dividing the rice o" 100 pounds of feed by the .rice ner unit of poultry
products.

Because of the widespread use now being made of the ratios for poultry
products especially for eegs by people dealing "'ith many other products as
well as poultry, it has become particularly desirable tc express all ratios
on a common basis. 'ata presented in the accompanying tables on poultry
prcdur-t-feed price ratios are comparable with ratios published by the United
States D:epartment of Acricult-ure j'or other commodities. Since these ratios
are commuted by dividing the price per unit of poultry products by the price
of feed per pound the opDosite of the former method they are called egg-
feed, chicken-feed, and turkey-feed price ratios.

The ratios computed on the new basis can be used for essentially the
sane purposes as 'hose formerly published. It is necessary, of course, when
interpreting them, to realize that a favorable ratio is denoted by a high
ratio rather then a low one and vice versa. In mid-April, for example, the
feed-egg ratio tased cn United States average prices was 3.5 dozens of eggs.
In April 19"1 the ffed-eg ratio -as ;.3 dozens of eggs. In other rords, the
feed-err ratio ,:a3 a little 1:-ss 'a--nrable in April this vear than last
because vlihtly more eggs v'ere required to buy a given quantity of feed than
in April 11-+. The erg-feed ratio in Annri this year -ras 15.3 pounds of feed
(per dozen eggs) compared with 15.9 pounds a year earlier. Thus, the egg-feed
ratio also ran be said to have been a little less favorable than in April last
yerr becnusr a do-en egs -ras eq'iivalent in price to a -lightly smaller quanti-
ty of fe.d -han in Anril 1941. Both ratios indicate that the relationship be-
tween feed -rices and egg prices was less favorable to producers than in April
1941 by about t! e sane degree.

Lik.'wise, compared with the 10-year (1931-40) average, the ratios
comrul-ed by either method indicate that the present relationship between egg
prices ard feed oric-.s is relatively favcrable for egg production. It is
interesting to note, ho-rever, that the comparison of each current ratio with
its respective average for a given month will not always indicate exactly the
same relative position. This follows because the two methods of computing
ratios are the reciprccals of each other, and the reciprocal of an average


- 10 -


MAY 1942






is not identical to an average of reciprocals. But for practical nurnoses,
this difference can be disregarded once a given reikhod of computing the price
relationship has been adopted.

Why the Method of Computation Was ,IhaneI
at this Time

As indicated above, it has become particularly desirable to express all
ratios on a common basis because the data now are used widely by people
dealing with other livestock products as well as poultry. Since the ratios
computed for other commodities are rree.ter in number than thc-se computed for
poultry and since many of the people now beginning to use the rat'os for
poultry products are accustomed to using the radios for other commodities, it
would result in less total confusion to change the poultry ratios rather than
the others. hiaturally, of course, the change will result in sone difficulty-
for poultry specialists who have become accustomed to using the ratios com-
puted on the other basis. However, this will be temporary whereas if the
change were not male there would be constant confusion among many people as a
result of having the ratios on two different bases. Extension men and other
individuals in many States already have changed from a feed-egg to an egg-feed
basis. The Bure-.u cf Agricultural Economics and other agencies of the
Department will give all possible assistance to individuals wishing to change
their records to the new basis. Usual charts and other materials showing
data on the egg-feed ratio will be supplied.

Uses Made of Price Ratios

The most important use made of any ratio between feed prices and live-
stock product prices is in forecasting future production. A ratio alone, of
course, s-ich as the egg-fee- ratio, cannot be used to show whether poultrymen
are making or losing money at any one tire. Many factors other than feed
costs and egg prices determine the nrofitableness of an individual laying
flock. For an individual poultryman to determine the profitability of his
flock fairly detailed records must be V-e,.-. The egg-feed ratio only provides
a rough means of forecasting what the raj-.-rity of producers will decide on the
basis of their financial outcome during a given period. A ratio based on
average prices therefore is used primarily by those individuals who are par-
ticularly interested in future product on trends, and are used relatively
little by ind-vidual producers. 'h'en the egg-feed price ratio is high, feed
costs are low in relation to egg prices, and, other things being equal, it is
more profitable to produce eggs than when the ratio is low.

Other considerations also are important in interpreting a given ratio
between prices of poultry products and feed prices. Foremost among these are
the level of prices in general and the relative favcrnbleness of ratios for
other livestock enterprises. Either of these may r.ore than offset tne direct
effects on production of a given ratio. In the depreezion years, for example,
the egg-feed price ratio was much more favorable than average, but cash farm
income was at such a low level that farmers had difficulty in meeting fixed
costs after paying for feed. When prices in general are relatively high,


PES-65


- 11 -





MAY 1942


egg producing operations may he profitable despite a ratio less favorable
than average. The second irrortant r.j.isider-tior the relatives favorablenesa
of other rc.tios has its w".i-rt pnric Lci n in the 1 i'rest It ap.li- at
last to some extort in alI 1,eas nf tie c .intry. i',h ;:-c'L-.:':ion of all
lirve;tocl- proJirc at or 'o-'--: previous r-':rdsI. t is par tic,.larly necessary
to censiear the relat 'r; u,'-i .lons of all ratios ;.-hen appraising tne outlook
for the fan- production of an- one product.

Characteristics of the i-cultry Product-
Foru fric. ra-.o3

Th. came min'xtre of feeds is used in computing the feed-poultry product
price ratir.- as 'r. t)s past. This nation is co.u-osed of 6! percent aorn,
14 ocrconc -;'at, 8 percent oats, 2. percmint barley, 9 percent brani, ard 5 per-
cent -tnzr'e, by we'g'itn. The prices used are mi.d-month orices rec-'ved by
farmers for corn, w/.eat, oats, and barley, end prices paid by farmers for
bran and t Unr>'3. Pou.lry product prices x-red nre the mid-north average
pric-.sz re :e:ed by farmFrs. T'..e feed rat'.on is nt'; nr:ce.-s_'ly rrncnm-ended
for -nult:.- po:.'o'".cers end, in fact, mnay nit be u .-l as such snr.-'rhorr. in the
United lte..:t-s. 'it si:,'h, thi cr-nrw-it-ients c:'mnoce a very lArye percentage of
all :-tonis o.id eice o"an.es of all feecds ar:e Tc're or lecs irnifonrm, the irioe
chani-cs or t'at. ;:.i.xture are s1.nif_'-anat. Faticns rseo in present-day poultry
feeding c-erations are flIexioe, of co,;r-", ..- ir. ,lule ra:r- additional in-
gre ieats. Thie ;';reau of Aeric'-ilt-ral Er. cno:'.ic: i3 now col.ccting monthly
deGl ? on prices pni'J by farme-s ocr 1 .c...-,;.'xcd po- t.r f.-;.:ds, In the near
future thece nay aiso cntar into thie iomwuta-ion of poultry rroduct-feed price
ratios.

The annual averages given in the accomranying tables are simple
avera;as of mnornthly data for the egg-feed and ch'icen-feed -rite ratios. For
turkeys alLrual ratios were comp',ted between the vreighted average price re-
ceived by c rmers for turkeys in the months Octohr through January and the
weighted average price of feed used during the growing season (UI y to
Tov?.3ber), The arnual ratio for turkeys is more logically cu.nstrvcted than
monr"ily r-rics, since the latter, d,,rnrg t-he grov'ig season, sxpreases the
relationship bec;r.sn prices p.Lid for feed in thi growing season and prices
received fcr breeder hens that were produced the year before.

The egg-feed price relationship is more important than the chicken-feed
price relationship in cousin, cnanaes in the production of chickens on farms
in the UrAiel States. The relative fa-.or:bleness of the chicken-feed price
relationship. however, is of some imrr.ortance in causing changes in t:.pes of
chickens raised for egg produ-.cing purposes, During the past year, for example,
the egg-feed price ratio has been relatively much more favorable than the
chicken-feed price ratio and the demand for light breed chicks has been
exceptionally strcnr this spring. Changes in the chicken-feed price relation-
ship, of course, affect the production of commercial broilers. Because of
the less favorable relationship bet-reen broiler prices and feed prices during
the past several months the production of commercial broilers in some areas
has declined moderately.


- 12--





PPS-65


- 13 -


table 1.- Egg-feed price ratio, 1910-42 1/

Year : Jan.f Feb.2 Ma'r.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.: *Av-


22.4
23.8
22.3
23.4
22.3
22.1
21.3
20.3
18.1
19.8

20.4
35.0
29.0
24.5
23.6
22.8
22.6
25.0
23.2
20.3

24.1
18.6
22.8
45.3
IS.8
15.5
20.1
12.0
18.8
19.1

15.4
17.2
19.8


19.1
17.4
19.9
19.4
18.9
15.5
17.4
18,0
16.1
12.8

16.0
20.7
26.1
18.9
22.1
16.4
18.3
19.2
17.0
18.5

20.2
12.4
17.5
22.9
16.1
15.9
20.6
10.2
14.4
17.1

16.9
14. 8
16.8


15.3
14.1
15.3
16.2
16.1
10.7
13.1
11.9
10.4
12.2

12.9
18.3
14.5
15.6
13.4
11.3
15.8
13.8
13.0
16.o

14.0
15.0
14.5
19.9
14.3
11.9
15.0
10.1
14.6
16.6

12.7
14.2
15.5


13.9
13.1
11.8
14.0
11.7
10.6
12.5
11.2
10.2
12.3

10.9
15.0
14.5
13.0
12.6
12.4
16.4
13.5
12.1
13.5

14,4
14.4
14.3
15.8
13.3
12.5
14.5
9.4
14,4
15.4

12.0
15.,
15.4


13.8
12.6
10.9
13.6
12.0
10.5
13.0
10.3
10.hL
12.6

10.6
14.5
15.0
13.0
13.1
12,3
16.6
12.3
11.8
14.7

13.1
12.3
15.0
14.
13.0
13.6
15.4
8.4
16.2
14.2


13.6
12.0
10,8
13,7
12.3
10.7
13.3
10.1
10.1
11.5

9.9
15.0
15.0
12.7
13.7
12.7
16.8
9.8
11.8
15.9

12.0
13.6
16.4
11.7
11.6
14.o
16.0
8.7
17.2
14.2


13.3
?1.7
20.5
.3.2
12.6
11.0
13.7
9.2
11.2
11.7

11.0
18.9
15.1
13.2
12.9
14.3
16.6
11.3
13.0
15.7

13.1
14.9
18.8
11.2
11.8
15.1
13.4
9.6
18.9
16.4


11.8 11.8 13.9
15.6 17.5 18.7


11 Number of pounds of feed equal in value to 1
Lj Simple average of monthly ratios.


13.S
12.6
12.7
13.6
13.2
11.9
13.9
9.4
11.7
12.3

13.4
23.6
15.3
14. g
13.6
15.1
16.1
12.6
15.2
16.4

12.9

22.9
12.6
12.3
16.2
12.2
11.6
22.1
18.4

14.7
19.3


16.3
14.2
13.6
15.5
14.9
15.6
11.7
13.1
i3.3

17.0
26.6
20.3
s1.6
16.3
16.5
19.7
15.9
17.9
IS.4

15.6
23.3
2S.3
16.3
14.6
19.0
13.2
14. 1
26.3
17.8


19.8
16.5
19.0
19.3
16.5
19.1
17.8
13.3
15.7
17.8

23.0
36.6
25.3
21.3
19.1
22.3
23.1
20.1
21.0
21.3

17.8
31.6
42.4
23.6
15.9
20.8
15.5
20.6
30.7
21.4


24.2
20.0
25.0
23.5
20.8
24.0
19.5
15.6
19.0
21.3

33.1
49.1
30.6
29.1
24.1
28.7
30.0
25.7
25.6
26.T

24a.
33.1
53.0
26.2
19.3
26.2
18.5
25.9
33.0
23.6


27.0
22.6
27.0
24.3
23.8
24.8
21.0
17.5
21.6
24.4

40.9
48.7
31.8
30.3
25.0
29.9
32.3
26.7
27.0
28,3

21.2
33.4
59.4
23.5
16.9
25.7
16.s
23.9
30.3
18.0


18.1 20.7 22.8 23.8
20.6 22.7 25.5 23.2


dozen eggs at local markets,


1120
1)21
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1'28
1329


17.7
15.9
16.6
17.5
16.3
15.5
16.0
13.2
14.0
15.2

18.3
26.8
21.0
18.8
17.5
17,9
20.4
17.2
17.4
18.8

16.9
20.1
27.1
20.3
14.8 g
17.2
15.9
13.7
21.4
17.7

16.2
18.8


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

1940o
1941
1942








Table 2,- Chicken-feed price ratio, 1910-42 1/

Year Jan. Feb.: Mar.: Apr. May : June July. A&.g. Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.:
U U U U ** _


1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919

1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942


8.3
9.6
7.6
10.2
8.6
7.6
8.5
7.5
6.8
7.9

7.8
14.o
17.3
11.2
11.7
8.7
13.0
13.6
11.9
13.3

12.4
13.2
17.6
19.7
10.0
7.7
14.,6
7.0
14.6
14.3

10.1
11.9
10. S


8.4
9.5
7.7
10.1
9.0
7.4
8.7
7.6
7.1
8.0

8.5
14.9
15.8
11.8
12.0
8.8
13.6
14.0
11.8
12.8

13.0
13.3
17.3
19.6
10.4
8.3
14.6
6.9
14.o
14.5

10.2
12.3
1C,6b


8.7
9.6
7.6
10.3

9.0

7.4
6.8
8.4

8.6
15.5
14,4
11.6
12.4
9.5
14.3
14.1
11,2
13.0

13.6
14.2
17.6
17.9
10.6
?1

7.3
14,3
14. 8

10.6
12.4
10,8


9.1
9.6
7.4
10.3
9.3
7.6
9.3
6.8
7.0

8.5
16.2
14.5
11.7
12,8
10.8
15.3
14.4
11,0
14.0

14.1
14. g8
17.7
15.1
10.9


7.1
14.7
14.3

10,4
12.7
11ii.1


9.3
9.5
7.1
10.1
9.0
7.6
9.5
6.0
7.0
8.7

7.9
16.3
14.5
12.0
13.4
10.9
15.6
13.5
10.4
14.7

13.1
14.7
17.7
12.4
11.0
q.9
4.1
6.9
14.s
13.0

10.6
12.6


9.3
9.2
7.1
9.8
9.q4
8.1
9.8
6.o
7.3
8.4

7.5
16.0
15.3
12.3
13.3
10.5
15.6
11. 1
10.6
14.9

12.3
15.5
17.6
11.6
9.9
104
13.9
7.3
12,S
12,9


9.1
8.9
6.9
10.5
9.7
8.2
9.7
5.5
7.9
8.3

8.2
16.9
15.4
12.8
11.5
11.0
15.3
10.9
11.1
13.7

12.1
16.o
18.3
8.9
9.8
9.7
10.7
7.6
14.2
13.6


9.0
8.6
7.9
9.8
9.0
8.4
9.1
5.2
7.8
7.9
8.4
17..5
14.0o
12.4
10.4
10.5
13.5
10.6
11.9
12.5

10.9
17.4
16.2
9.3
8.2
10.0
8.2
p.6
14,9
13.7


11.5 11.8 i1.6
11.7 l.1 11.4


9.2
8.4
7.5
9.2
8.5
8.7
8.7
6.0
7.9
8.0

9.4
17.4
13.8
12,.3
10.1
10.8
13.4
10.5
12.7
12.1

11.0
19.1
19.1
9.5
8.5
11.1
8,0
10.7-
15.1
11.8


9.5
8.0
9.0
9,6
8.4
9.2
s.4
6.4
7,8
8.1

10.3
17.8
13.2
11.7
9.7
11.8
13.1
11,1
13.2
11.9

11.7
20.1
20.2
10.6
7.9
11.7
7.8
14.4
15.4
11.9


9.8
7.7
9.9
8,6
8.2
9.4
7.8
6.4
8.0
7.9

12.0
18.3
12,1
11.3
9J7
11.8
13.4
12.0
13,9
12.2

12,6
18.1
20.5
9.6
7.9
13.9
7.5
15.6
15.5
11.3

11.4
11.1


11.5 11i.2
10.7 11.9


l/ Number of pounds of feed equal in value to 1 pound of live chicken at local
markets,
2/ Simple average of monthly ratios,


9.6
7.5
10.3
8.4
8.0
8.9
7.5
6.7
8.2
7.7

12.6
17.3
11.6
11.1
9.0
12,1
133.4
11.8
13.4
11.8

12.1
18.1
19.5
9.4
7.3
14.3
6.9
15.1
14.8
10.2


AV.


9.2
9.0
7.9
10.0
9.0
8,2
8.8
6.3
7.5
8.3

9.0
16.3
14.3
11.9
11.3
10.6
14.4
12.2
12.0
13.3

12.3
16.2
18.6
11,7
9.2
10.3
10,8
9.1
15.0
13.0


10.9 11.6
12.3 12.3


MAY 1942


- 14 -




E&s-65


A. 5 -


Table 3.- Tuk*ey-fsad prise ratio 1929-42 I/

Year Jan.: Fob.: Mar.: Apr.: May June: July, Aug. Sept.: Oct.: Nov.. Dc.: _
._ 2. .


1929 : 17.3
P


15.1 16.3


14.5 14.4


12.9
11.3
9.6
13.8
6.6
15.1
14.6


11.9
9.8
9.5
13.1
6.7
14.7
14.o


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

1940
1941
1942


9.1
9.4
10.2
6.9
14,9
14.3


7.9
9.3
8.4
8.1
15.8
15.1


10.7
7.9
10.4
8.5
9.2
16.9
13.3


14.9
18.2
23.9
21.6
12.4
9.9
17.5
7.3
15.3
18.6

12.0
13.5
13.0


14.1

24.9
12.S
8.5
11.9
8.9
13.7
14,7
14.3


15.7
23.0
26.2
12.9
9.9
17.3
8.5
16.5
19.4
14.6


12.8 13.5
13.4 14.5


1/ Number of pounds of feed equal in value to 1 pound of live turkey at local
markets.
2/ Batio between weighted average price received by farmers for turkeys in months
October-January and average price of food during the growing period weighted as
follows: May, 2; Juno, 6; July, 11; August, 15; Soptomboi 19; October, 23; and
November, 24.


10.3 io.6
11.9 11.6


11.0 11.5 12.3
11.5 11.6 11.9


20.8
12.3
10.0
16.2
7.1
15.5
17.9

11.7
13.3
12.2


19.7
12.1
10.1
15.3
7.2
15.5
18,2

11.3
13,1
12.0


15.8
12.0
9.8
14.8
6.7
15.4
16. S

10.8
12.5
11.9


15.8
25.3
23.0
12.1
10.0
19.1
7.9
16.5
20.0
13.7

14.1
14.2


13.8
22.0
20.7
11.9
10.6
14.9
8.5
11.8

14.5

13.3
14.5







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SAfter five days return to
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Bureau of Agricultural Economics
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