Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
February 1942
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00069

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text





THE


SITUATION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-62 FEBRUARY 1942


FEED-EGG RATIO AT CHICAGO, 1927-42
( DEVIATIONS FROM 10-YEAR AVERAGE )


DOZENS

4


3


2


1


AVERAGE
. 1929-S8

1


-2


-3


U. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 32471 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FEED PRICES HAVE ADVANCED CONSIDERABLY IN RECENT MONTHS LARGELY BE-
CAUSE OF THE INCREASED DEMAND FOR FEED FROM PRODUCERS OF ALL LIVESTOCK
AAD LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS. EGG PRICES DECLINED AS EGG MARKETING INCREAS-
ED BUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEED PRICES AND EGG PRICES HAS CONTINUED
FAVORABLE FOR EGG PRODUCTION. FOR THIS SEASON AS A WHOLE THE FEED-EGG
RATIO IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE THAN AVERAGE BUT PERHAPS NO MORE
FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR EARLIER.


I









It









EGGS
I DOZENS I

8


7


6


5


4
CENTS PER
DOZEN

30



25


0
NUMBER
i MILLIONS I

350


325


300


275


250


JAN APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A M S DATA EXCEPT NONAGRIC-ULTURAL EMPLOYEES'COMPENSATION

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGR.CuLUr FIGURE I NIG 39323 BUREAU OF AGRICULTU..L ECONOMICS


THE EGG SITUATION

I PERCENT
D-EGG RATIO NONA
140 -- El
COp
( I
Average
1931-40 1 2
120 -


I-

\ 100




80
% % CASES
E D ( MILLIONS I
I

/ 2 ,12
""- 194 2-
--^A i l


15


NUMBER








PES-62


- 3 -


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Summary

The number of potential layers now on farms is large enough to meet

the 1942 egg production goal, which is 13 percent larger than the 191l out-

put. If the goal is reached, the supply of eggs will be ample to meet lend-

lease needs even while maintaining per capital consumption in this country at,

or above, the average for the last f3w years. Revised estimates indicate

that the number of potential layers wes 12 percent larger on January 1 than

on January 1, 1941. The total egg output in Jtnuary was 17 percent larger

than a year earlier, end output will increase seasonally until April at a

level imch higher than a year earlier. Because of the heavy egg-drying oper-

ations in producing areas, receipts of shell eggs Pt terminal markets have

continued smaller than in early 1941 despite the much larger production.

Egg prices declined during the rast month as marketing increased

seasonally. The price of fresh firsts Pt Chicago in mid-February was about

6 cents lower than in mid-January but about 11 cents higher than a year

earlier. Despite the decline in erg prices and some further rise in feed

prices, the feed-egg ratio for the United States as a whole is more favorable

than a year earlier and slightly more favorable than the 1931-40 average.

Factors that will help to maintain higher prices received by farmers

for eggs this year than last are: (1) A stronger domestic consumer demand

this year than last, (2) prospective large purchases of eggs by the Depart-

ment of Agriculture, and (3) a storage demand fully as strong as in 1941,

if not stronger. The feed-egg ratio is expected to continue favorable for

egg production, but it probably will not be as favorable for this year as

a whole as for 1941.






FEBRUARY 1942 4 -

Supplies of chicken meat are larger now than a year ago. Storage

stocks of chickens on February 1 were 17 percent larger than on February 1

last year, end production of commercial broilers is continuing at a record

level. Partly as a result of large supplies, especially of young birds,

chicken prices have not advanced as rich during the past year as prices of

some other meats. 3-cause of this change in price relationships, some con-

sumers may shift from buying othar meats to buying chicken. The price of

young chickens also is continuing low relative to the price of hens.

A farther increase in the number of chicKcns raised on farms is ex-

pected this yea.r. On February 1, farmers indicated they intended to purchase

about 12? percent mere baby chicks than they pirches-d in 1941. Realization

of thes intentions, however, will depend considerably on the relationship of

egg prices to feel r-icas in the penk months of hatchery output (March-May).

Supplies of chicken for the y-er Ps r whole very licsely will be the largest

on record. Prices received by farmers for chickens may average Higher this

year than last.

-- February 23, 1942

POLT.T-Y PRODUCTS A-nTD PRICE CONTROL

The Emergency Price Control Act of 1042, approved by the President
on January 30, 1942, provides for Govcrnnent regulation of commodity prices,
rents, and arkptinE marrins. It authorizes tl:e establishment of maximum
prices wnicn in tio- judgment of the Price Administrator "will be generally
fair and cquitatle en- will effectuate the purnoszs of this Act," which in
general are to check "speculative end excessive price rises, price disloca-
tions, and inflr-tionary tendencies."

The Act states that "So far as practicable, in establishing any maxi-
mum price, the Admnnii'tr-.tor shall Pscertrin and t'ive due consideration to
the prices prevailing between October 1 and October 1I, 1q41." Provision
is made for adjustments in maximum prices to take account of changes in costs
of production and distribution end other conditions.

For agricultural commodities no maximum price is to be established
below the highest of any of the following Prices, as determined and published
by the Secretary of Agriculture: (1) 110 percent of the parity or comparable







PES-62


- 5 -


price for the commodity, adjusted by the Sncrptery of Agriculture. for grade,
location, and seasonal. differentials, (2) the r'--ket price on October 1, 1941,
(3) the market price on Lecembcr 15, 19111, or (4) the are-rae price during
the period July 1, 1919 to Ju-ne 30, 1'.1i. Local rir'-et prices for poultry
and eggs appro::imately equivalent to the mirirrium ceiliUns specified above
are given in the following table:

Prices of poultry products: Mid-January farm prices and approximate
levels below which maximum prices cannot be established
under the Emergency Price Control Act

: : Average :
: : price :110 percent : Estimated : Averag : Farm price
Item Ut: by farmers :1942 parity : on Oct. 1, farm price in mi-Dec.
: : in mid-Jan.: price : a191 : 1919-29 I 19
: : 1o42 : : : :
: C.nts Cents CCenCents Cents

Eggs .... 3oz.: 31.3 2/ 32.8 31.0 33.2 34.1
Chickens :Lb. : 17.0 18.3 16.2 21.1 15.3
Turkeys .:Lb. : 20.5 23.1 18.2 23.8 20.9

1 Average of monthly pric. s received by far.aers, July 191-June 1929.
2/ Adjusted for seasonal variation.

In interpreting the minimum ceiling levels it should be recognized
that the 110 percent of parity limitation will change with fluctuations in
the index of prices paid by farmers, include:,: int:-rest -nd texes.

The Act also provides that "No maxir-i rice shpll be established or
maintained for any com-odity processed or ml-ufcturcd in wnole or substantial
part from any agricultural comrrodity below a price which i-ll reflect to pro-
ducers of such agri-cultural connrodity n price for such agricultural commodity
equal to the highest rice therefor spncifie1," nl nmthn.re in the Act is to
be construed to modify the provisions of the Agricultural Marksting Act of
1937, as amended, or to invalidate rny marketing agreercant, license or order
under the pro-ision- of that Act. Io m.xim-ua price for .r.y a ricaultural con-
modity is to be est-blished under the Act without the mirror epprovvl of the
Secretary of Agricaulture.

Prices of poultry products in mid-January were considerably below the
highest of tLie minimum ceiling oricas. Because production of poultry products
responds rapidly to favorable prices, it is considerably less likely that
price control will be applied to prices of 'xu't!Cr products tan to prices
of some other products. Although a r-lativrlY lo-:r rrice may be received
by farmers for products that increase in ouz-uat rI.dil;, the larger number
of units sold will help to increase the cz-sa farm income from such products.






FEBRUARY 1942


- 6 -


EGG SITUATION

REVIEW OF 27CEPIT DE7FLOPM-FTS

Zgg Production in January 17 Percent
Larger Than a Yt;.r Eprlier

The average number of layers on farms during Janu-ry was 11 percent
larger than in January 1941. The rate of lay was about 5 percent higher,
making the total egg output 17 percent larger than the r vised figure for
a year earlier end by far the largest on record for the month. Revised data
on egg production for 1941 will be published by the Agricultural Marketing
Service within the next month or two. Incr'-ses in the January egg output
compared with a year earlier by regions were as follows: North Atlantic
5.1 percent, East North Central 11.1 percent. West North Central 35-5 per-
cent, South Atlantic 10.9 percent, South Cencral 18.2 percent, and Western
9.8 percent. Unusually warm weather for t..e month as a whole was an important
factor in bringing about thcse large increases in egg output.

The larger eg-s output is beinF reflected in large increases in receipts
of eggs Pt mrdwest primary markets. But because of the heavy egg-drying
operations in producing arees, receipts of shell eggs at terminal markets
have continued smaller than in early 1941.

StocKs of Epes Ke-ring Seasonal Low

Private holdings of shell eggs on February 1 were about half as large
as those of a year earlier. Holdings by the Department, however, were much
larger, making total holdings 11 percent larger theman those of a year earlier.
Totl stocks of frozen eggs on February 1 were considerably larger than a
year earlier. The Department of Agriculture owned the equivalent of about
A72,000 cases, leaving private stocks at about the average for the last few
years.

A net into-storage movement of shell egs occurr.. during the second
neeKi of February, as a result of operations by the Department of Agriculture.
Private stocks of shell eggs will begin to be accumulate early in March. The
net withdrawals of frozen eggs have continued much larger than a year earlier,
but stocks from the previous year at the beginning of t- coming into-storage
season will be the largest in several years.

Storage Demand Expected to be Fully
as Strong This Yea-r as Last

The total cost per dozen for storing eggs from the spring to the
following fall and winter, including deterioration of -roduct as well as
direct storing costs, has averaged about 3 cents. A comparison of the average
price of eggs when they were placed into storage with the average price upon
removal is a rough indication of whether this cost has been met. Such monthly
prices, weighted by net monthly storage movements, show that the storing sea-
son now ending was the best in about a decade from the viewpoint of storage
operators. It is likely, therefore, that the storage demand during the coming
into-storage season will be fully as strong as in 1941. The storing of rela-
tively largo quentitics of shell eggs for drying lp.ter in the year will
supplement the probable strong demand for normal uses.










Egg Prices Declined Following
Increases in Rcceints

Wholesale prices for eggs declined 5 to 6 c-nts per dozen during late
January and early February after remaining steady during th.3 preceding 6
weeks. The drop in egg prices care a little later than usual this year be-
cause of the cold weather in the first part of Jpnua.ry an. the heavy egg-
drying operations throughout that month. Esainning in late January, pro-
duction increased seasonally end increases in receipts .t terminal markets
were possible even while heavy egg-drying operations were maintained in the
producing areas.

A considerable quantity of shell eggs were purchased by the Dersrt-
ment of Agriculture during the first pert of February for purposes of price
support, pnd although egg prices declined considerably as a. result of in-
creased receipts, prices continued well above the minimum support-level.
During the first 2 weeks of February, shell egg purchases totaled 62,000
cases and offers for 23 million pounds of dried eggs wert accepted.

The price of fr:sh firsts at C-:ic,go in mid-Fabruory was 2-1 cents per
dozen compared with 14 cents in mid-Jnnulr;y fnn. 17.5 cents in mid-February
1941. The aversae price received by f-rmcrs in the Unit-1 States in mid-
January was 31.3 c.:nts per dozon. Taii, w-s 11.C ccnts nirher than a year
earlier and 5 percort above the mid-JanUary par-ity price.

OUTLOOK EGGS

BACKGPOUND.- The month-to-month chenaes in the number of
layers on farms are estimated on the basis of reports from
about 20,000 crop reporters having flocks of less thEn 400
layers and of reports from commerciEl poultryacn. The re-
sults of the rural carrier surv7v', -",-ich is made in January
of each year, are use&, to supplc:-rvt the reports from general
crop reporters. This survey is much larrer in scope pnd
frequently indicates larger ch'n.-zes in January 1 numbers
than that indicated by the rnencrel report. This year the
general report indicated an incre-se of about 8 percent in
the January 1 number of layers, whereas the more inclusive
reTort showed an increase of abcut 12 percent. The number
of all chiciccons on farms January 1 was 12 percent larger
than on JPnuary 1, 19l1.

Number of Potential Leyers Now on Farms
Ample to Meet Esc Production Goal

The number of potential leyers now on farms is about I? percent larger
than a year earlier, and the excess over a year earli-r probPbly will in-
crease somewhat further because of the larger nunmbr cf pullets to be added
to laying flocks end the likelihood that only the minimum number of hens
will be culled from la;-ing flocks. It appears likely, therefore, that egg
production in the United States this year will be ampie to supply lend-lease
needs while maintaining per canita consumption of eggs in this country at or
above the average of recent years.


PES-62


- 7 -







FE~DUARY 1942


Increases in the January 1 number of layers by regions rere as follows:
NIort' Atlartic 6 percent, East North Central 7 percent, West North Central
16 percent, S'ut]' lila: tic 10 pnrcznt, South Central 14 percent, ard Western
6 percent. Increas-s -in egg output this year over 1941 in the various regions
will correspond ipLrly closely to the increases in number of layers, since
in 1941, as a tvhc1, t.e feed-egg ratio v.'s exceptionally favorable in all
areas, and the reto of la" was near or above previous record highs.

Suggested State Goals Pevised on Basis
of' Jan.nuar- 1 T.uLer of Jayers

The rinmbr of Is:ers or. frmsn ,January 1 r iff'ercd considerably in
individual SPa.tos. from That nppearod to be in prospect v.-.en the first set
of sug';rstcd State goa s "'as established in Sertem'ner 3941l. This necessi-
tated making considcra'.-le changes in the suggested goals for y:g production
in 1942 from those estimates distributed et tha reg.ior.al agricultural meet-
ings in S.ptmnbhr 1941. The revised figures for all pro ucts are published
in a mirEographed report "Suggested State and Regicnal Distribution of
Revised Goals and a-pected Production for 1942," -.huich was released by the
Department in January.

Continued Favorable Egg TPrices in Prosrect

Despite the ruch larger egg production in nrospeit for this year, it
is likely thai- egr prices ai'dl averagee higher th-an they did in 1941. Factors
which vill help to crir.g -.boit higher prices are the yollo-wingr: (1) A
stronger dcmeatic consumer demand, k2) .prospective large purchases by the
Dep --tiont of Arici.lture for l- rd-blase, and (g.) a storage demand fully as
strong as in 19-41, if not stronger.

Departrnen't; to FIntr?r.se E; PTrchases to
Cciicinc 7rithil Incr-oeZ e Sr-TiL iTro1uction

To carry f'c.r.ard the arnounced rro-ranr to support prices received by
far:-rs for .jr.gs aL rnot los:, thi 5 percent of parity, the Department is
prepared to aa.ko hee-' r[archeies of eggs in the rno.thz o0 flush production.
nr. addition to t' o lar,e "-ol of dried eggs to be obtain-.'d, shell eggs of
United St-tes who2a.:lc al.d ur': rt rradez (-.ith and v.it.hout sholl treat-
ment) Trill be n-ircLu-id. United Str.tos wholesale grades of fresh shell
eggs w.ll be used .or school lunch, relief, and ot!er imr.-ediate distribu-
tion p rposc-, ar.d for sLtrare ''or -ubsequ:nt distribution. Export grade
eggs will be rsed. lrg',ly for lnd-lease shiprm3nts.

In ea-ly February, the Departmert announced thrt prices for specified
grades of eggs crn the CI.icago and lHeTw Yorlk Nkrcntile Excharges vould be
supported at or above certain minimnim levels. The grader of eggs and the
respective minirim prices for the nonth of Fobruary, iere as follows: Qn the
Chicago Mercan.tile YEchange, Fresh Graded Firsts, 27.b cents per dczen; on
the liew York Ler-.antil- E-changre, :ixcd Color Firsts, 28,.5 cents, fixed
Color Extras, 29.5 cents, and Nearby and ?'idrestern 7Jhite and Brown Specials,
30.5 cents. It is probable that the Department will anrinonce similar
minirrmn rrises periodically during thi 'current season


- 8 -











POUNDS
(MILLIONS) F
P

40



30



20



10




CENTS PER
POUND FA




16 -





14 -





12
MILLIONS


200



150



100 --
I'

50 -


o -
JAN.
A. M S. DATA


THE POULTRY SITUATION

POUNDS r |
S OF DRESSED I MILLIONS I


. JULY OCT.
FIRST OF THE MONTH


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


60




40




20




0
POUNDS
( MILLIONS
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS
60




40




20


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
* INCLUDES BROILERS. FRYERS, AND ROASTERS
NESG. 39914 BUREAU OF AGRICULTuRAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2







FEBRUARY 1942 10 -

POULTRY SITUATION

REVIEW CF RECENT DEVELOPaENTS

Fowl Marketings in Farly February
Smaller than a Year Earlier

Receipts of young chickens at midvest primary markets during January
averaged much larger than a year earlier. These data have been discontinued
until marketing of this year's crop of young chickens begin. Receipts of
fowl at these plants during January also averaged larger than in January
last year but in early February vere somewhat smaller. Receipts of dressed
poultry fresh] and frozen) at the four principal markets in the last part of
January and in early February were about as large as a year earlier.

Stocks of Frozen Poultry Reduced
More than Usual During January

Despite the large farm marketing of live fowl and chickens during
January, total storage holdings of poultry were reduced more than usual
during that month. Total holdings on February 1, however, vere 7 percent
larger than a year earlier and the largest on record for that date. Changes
in stocks of fowls and roasters were responsible for most of the larger-
than-usual decline in total holdings. Nevertheless, stocks of fowls on
February 1 v.ere the largest on record for that date, and stocks of roasters
were the largest for February 1 in more than a decade. Stocks of turkeys
increased more in January this year than in January 1941 but on February 1
were about 9 percent sr.aller than on the corresponding date last year.

Prices of Live Forwl and Chickens Strengthened
Further During the Fast lvnthE-

Wholesale prices of live fowl and young chickens at Chicago averaged
slightly higher in rid-February than a month earlier, after advancing
materially from rid-December to mid-January. Prices of all classes of live
birds were higher than a year earlier, the difference being relatively much
larger for fowl th aj for young chickens. This difference, of course, is
largely due to the nuch larger marketing of young stock in contrast to the
smaller marketinrs of fowl. In late February and early March 1941, fowl
marketing were relatively heavy because egg prices were at a low level
and the feed-egg ratio v'as unfavorable.

OUTLOOK C-ICKE.JS

BACKGROWU'D.- The number of chickens on farms was increased
considerably during 1941. The estimated number of all
chickens on farms January 1 was about 474 million birds
(excluding broilers), about 12 percent larger than the
number on January 1, 1941 and about a million birds fewer
than the peak numbers in 1928.

The number of chickens raised annually fluctuates
in fairly regular 3-year cycles usually increasing for









2 years following a decline. The number of chickens raised
in 1940 was 11 percent smaller than in 1939. Because of the
sharp decline -in 1I40, the unusually favorable feed-egg ratio
during most of the hatching season last year and the general
encouragement given to poultrymen to increase their laying
flocks, the number of chickens raised on farms in 1941, as
estimated on July 1, was 14 percent larger than in 1940.
Eo-.:,ver, later indications reflecting the large late hatch
may show a somr3aw-at larger increase. The percentage in-
crease in commercial broiler production Tras even larger than
the porcontare increase in numbers on farms producing eggs
pr iar i ly.

Record Cormnercial Hatchery Output Continuing

In January about 47 million baby chicks e.ere hatched by commercial
hatcheries, 14 percent more than in January last year and by far the largest
on record for the month. This indicates that the production of cornercial
broilers is continuing the largest or. record, since relatively few chicks are
hatched for pullet production before late Felbruary. The number of eggs set
during January was 2 percent larger than in January last yesr, and advance
orders for baby chicks on February 1, for various delivery dates, vere 35
percent larger than on February 1, 1941.

Farmers Intend to PuTrchase Yore
Chicks this Year than Last

The favorable relationship bet-reen feed prices and egg prices during
the past winter has resulted in a strong demand for baby chicks this spring.
Tvo measures of this demand are available. The first is the volume of
advance orders compared with a year rrzlier vhich, as indicated above, was
35 percent over a year earlier on February 1. The second is the annual
intentions-report. On February 1, farmers indicated they intended to pur-
chase and custom-hatch about 12 percent more baby chicks than the so obtained
in 1941. Although this percentage may exaggerate the actual intentions,
since the trend toward purchasing a larger proportion of the chicks raised
may continue this year, it is likely that a material increase will occur in
the total number of chickens raised on farms. Increases by regions in the
number of chicks farmers intend to purchase this year compared to 1941 are
as follows: i'ew Enrland 22 percent, Middle Atlantic 12 percent, East North
Central 9 percent, Vest North Central 8 percent, South Atlantic 19 percent,
East South Central 22 percent, W.'est South Central 15 percent, Pocky mountain
17 percent, anrd Facific Coast 5 percent. The relative favorableness of the
feed-egg ratio during the next several weeks will be thle most important factor
in influencing farmers' actual decisions vith respect to the number of chickens
they will raise this year. The feed-egg ratio at the present time is more
favorable than a year earlier, but during much of the major hatching season
when it is most influential it may be less 2fvoral.le. It is expected to be
slightly more favorable than average, however.

Chicken Prices Low Relative to
Prices of Some Other Learts

Because of the time required to expand the slaughter supplies of some
species of livestock such as hogs, the full effects of the food expansion


- 11 -


PES-62







FEBRUARY 1942


program vill not be fully reflected in increased rnat supplies until later
this year. Chicker prodretion, on the nther hand, wras increased consider-
ably by late 1941 and is continuing abo-e all previous records. Moreover,
relatively small quantities of chicken :1ave been used for lend-lease pur-
poses compared w-ith the vclur.e of parr products that have been shipped.
These circumstances hPve resulted in low chicken prices relative to some
cuts of other iuats. Because of these price relationships, many consumers
may shift from the use of s ome other r.ats to chicken, especially young
birds, The current heavy broiler output an-d the relatively small farm
marketing of hens have been accompanied by low prices for young chickens
relative to ti-c rice of hens. The relationship 'et7veen the prices of these
two general classes is expected to resueo a more nearly normal relationship
in the late spr.nr: and summer -'.'her slaughter supplies of fowl probably will
be considerably larger t-.an a year earlier. The price of chicken meat in
general this year .aev average higher than in 1941 despite the increases in
supplies in prospect. Increases in prices nay be less for chickens than
for sor.e other rcars, ho-vever, because supplies of chickens can be in-
creased more readily.

TUR :hY3

Number of Turkeys or. Farms January 1
LarFer' than a Ye- Earlier

The number of turkeys on farrs January 1 was 6 percent larger than
an January 1, 1.31. Cn January 1 this year, 7,710,000 turkeys were on farms
compared with 7,252,000 a yenr s.arlier. The percentage changes from a year
earlier by regions acere as fcllovws: forth Atlantic 16 percent, East North
Central -11 percent, '.-est lorth Central 9 percent, South Atlantic 1 per-
cent, South Central -9 percent, Ymesterr states 20 percent. On the basis
of these increases and the probable similar increase in breeding stock
numbers, it appeFrs fairly likely that the number of turkeys raised an
farms will be considerably larger this year than last. A material in-
crease in turley supplies probably could be absorbed in 1942 at prices
vhich compare favorably with prices in 1941. Turkeys are not included in
that group of corrodities for which price support has been announced and a
national goal has not been established for turkey production.

Storage stocLs of turkeys on February 1 were 9 percent smaller than
on February 1, l'11l. Turkey prices in wholesale markets are continuing
well above those c ep year earlier.

FEED SITUAT I al

Feed orice-s have ricen considerably during the past several months
largely because of the increased demand for feeds from producers of all
livestock and livestock products. These advances in recent weeks have
coincided .i-th seasonal declines in egg prices. This, of course, has also
resulted in a less favorable feed-egg ratio than that which prevailed dur-
irg the last part o 1C941. In the spring months, however, the rate of lay
per bird is higher and the quantity of feed used per dozen eggs produced
is smaller than in the fall and winter when production per bird is smaller.
As a result the returns over feed costs on the average are larger in the
spring months than in the fall and u-inter.


- 12 -








PES-62


- 13 -


The feed-egg ratio at the present time, though less favorable than
it was a few months ago, is more favorable than a year ago or than average
as indicated in tables in the back of this report. For 1942 as a whole the
feed-egg ratii probably will be less favorable than a year earlier but
slightly more favorable than average.

Any further advances in feed prices will be retarded to some extent
by action taken recently by the Department of Agriculture and the Office of
Price Administration. Large quantities of wheat and corn owned by. the
Comnodity Credit Corporation are for sale to producers of livestock and
livestock products. The Office of Price Administration has established
tentative ceiling prices for several feeds high in animal protein. In
general the Department will use every means at its disposal to maintain
reasonable feed prices for livestock, dairy, and poultry producers.

In order to sVpply ample quantities of feed for the expanded live-
stock output, the Derartment of Igriculture has increased the corn acreage
allotment and is encouraging increased feed production in general this year.

DOMESTIC DE.IAA]D

Consumer Demand for Farm Products Expected to
be 1Maintained at or Above Recent High Levels

Curtailment of civilian goods production incident to the shift from
a defense to a war economy is resulting in considerable temporary unemploy-
ment. 15any of the displaced workers in civilian industries will be quickly
reemployed, however, and the hours and paZy of those in factories producing
for war will continue to increase The net effect on the money income of
consumers of the shift over to vwar production probably will be to slow up
the race of increase rather than to stop it. Although increased taxes and
defense bond sales ray absorb rLuch of the net gain in consumer income during
the next few months, the proportion left over for food, clothing, and
other nondurable goods ,-Ill be increased by the elimination of automobile
productio.i and curtailment in output of other drra':le consumer products.

The net effect of all these conditions is expected to be a stronger
demand for farm products in 1942 as a whole than in any year since 1919.

The pressure of rising consumer income in relation to the volume of
goods and services available for civilian use will be a strong factor tend-
ing to raise the general level of prices this year. The pressure v.ll be
the strongest on cormodities in shortest supply, but price controls and
raticnii, cr' such cor-codities vill tend to limit expenditures for there and
consequient.ly' to increase the pressure on other products in Large supply,
including farm corr-odities.









*1


Table 1.- Eggs: Production, storage holdings, purchases by the United States
Department of Agriculture, and commercial hatchery operations


Storage stocks, first s purchased by the USA Comercial hatch-

Year Number Aerage Total of the month eggs_ pu -hse-_ the ery operations
and of number farm Privately owned Owned by USDA Shel eggs
month lad ra of eggs produc- Sh el Fro[ e Blue Frozen Dried Eggs Chicks
h on farm elaide tion Shel FrosenS Shell Froeno Direct s 2 al net hatched
per hen eggs Phur-sp eggs e
chases chases


298 2. 187 251
138 1.610 193


1.000 1.000 1.000
cases pounds pounds


0
0
0
0
15.527
6.240
42. 218
2. 205
0
0
0
0




0


0
0
0
0
840
735
4.750
6.525
5.546
12.687
4.247
9.284


Millions Millins
adds chicks




91.8 41.2
192.9 84.0
334.4 193.7
356.0 237.8
272. 1 224.2
126.3 131.1
37.6 29.6
30.8 19.2
30.2 tb. 1
32.0 20. S
34.8 22.6
38.9 24.6


10.550 1 93.9 46.9


* 4 L L L& .5


10-year averages. 1931-40


Comparable data. 1940


' 1941
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.



1942
Jan.
Feb.







Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Aay
June
July
Aud.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.


57.2 39.1
154.4 54.7
308.0 165.9
319.8 236.5
194.4 178.6
70.9 77.8
28.1 22.3
19.3 0. 3
20.1 1 6.6
22.1 .4
22.5 1. S
32.3 IT.1


Caae equivalent.
2Adjusted for wastage in distribution.
3Praliminary.
4N purchase during 1940.


Millions Nusmbar Million
ceaes


1.000 1.000 1.000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases


324
318
308
295
280
266
254
249
263
291
318
341




368


313
272
291
1.065
2.816
4.960
6.100
6.402
5.S12
4.846
3,271
1.278


1.955
1.435
1, 206
1,691
2,654
3,788
4.372
5.156
4,661
3.977
3.373
2. 756


7.9
9. 1
12.8
13.9
13.5
II. 1
9.7
8.5
7.4
6.6
5.7
6.9




9.4


301
25
16
25
215
415
327
239
619
595
586
392


126
140
165
182
179
194
169
211
193
196
118
124


4
173
72
387
399
38
317
97
88
92
16
72




142


(4) I (4)


328
322
312
298
282
364
250
244
254
276
28
319


6.8
8.9
14.2
16.6
16.8
14.3
12.8
11.3
9.0
7.0
5. 1
5.4


6. 2
7.9
12.3
13.8
13. 1
10.5
8.9
7.6
6.4
5.3
4.3
4.8


819
270
182
1.257
3.886
6.516
7.719
7.855
7,338
6. 169
4,256
2, 128


1,916
1.616
1.386
1.540
2. 157
2,872
3.363
3.440
3.250
2.929
2.573
2,217


0
0
0
58
25
318
933
1,068
1.025
901
717
545















Table 2.- Poultry: Receipts and storage holdings


Receipts Receipts of live poultry Storage stocks first of the monthi
of
Year dressed Kid-west, sverageweekly Miscel-
and poultry receipts per plant elneous
ont td 4 New lsntous
month rinci- Total Fol Youn Chicago orkI Broilers Fryers Roasters Fowls Turkeys Ducks and un-
pal poultry stock cs *1-
mrketse


Million 1,000 1,000 1.000
pounds pounds pounds pounds


Cares Car Million
Pounds


Million Million Million HillionIMillion Million
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds


41.5
35. 2
29.0
22.0
18.0
14.9
13.8
14. 7
18.0
20.6
29.6
37.7


60.6
65.3
59.3
47.0
36.2
30.4
28.0
19.8
12.8
9.2
8.2
21. 1


45.5 44. 2 50.0
39.3 37.2 59. 2


1941
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May


July
Aud.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.



1942
Jan.
Feb. 2









Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aud.
Sept.
Oct.
Now.
Dec.


7. 2
7. 7
7. 2
8. 1
10.0
10.8
8.8
7.8
8.3
10.4
10.8
10.8


644
618
764
751
676
705
661
661
827
695
786
830


25.0
22. 2
19.4
14.4
10. 7
10. 1
12. 1
12.5
13. 2
14. 1
18.9
24.6


30.5
36.6
34.4
28.9
23. 4
21.6
20. 1
16.0
11.4
8.0
6.6
22.9


1Car equivalent of receipts by freight, truck and express.
2Preliminary.


Average Nine-year averages Five-year averages 1936.40
1931-40 1932-40














Table 3.- Poultry and egga: Prices, wholeaaJe and farm with percentages of parity.


Average prices received by farmers Wholesale prices at Chicago
Index number
Year Actual prices Percentage of parity (Aug. 1909-July Poultry. live
and 1914 = 100) ioe.-
month I-fresh Roaster@s Mite

Eg Chickens Turke Eggs Chicken Tuco- Chicken rste Heavy. Barred t is
per don per lb. per lb. icn Tuke, .l .nd he. Eocb. LIb.t ey.
pear i.per lb. pio lb. per lb.


1941
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Aby
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.


Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May

July
Aug.
Sept.
o:t.
No .
Dec.


Cante




19.7
16.8
16.4
19.7
3. 1
23. 2
25.6
26.8
30.3
31.8
35.5
34.1




31. 3


20.8
17.6
15.6
15.4
15.4
15.3
16.8
18.4
21.5
234.4
27.7
26. 3


Centa


Cents




15.5
15. 1
15.2
15.5
15.4
15.4
15.8
16. 1
17. 5
18.8
20.2
20.9


Percent Percent Percent


105 102 98


Centa Cents Cents Cente Cents


Ten year averages 1931-402 Comparable prices, 1940


16.8
16.4
16. 1
15.8
15. 1
14.5
14.4
14.5
15. 3
15.8
16.3
16.4


91
88
B7
85
81
78
78
78
82
85
88
89


95S
94
93
93
92
91
94
95
97
95
95
95


102
92
85
86
86
85
90
95
106
114
125
119


14.9
15.0
IS. 1
15.8
14.9
14. 1
14.6
14.9
16.0
15. 1
14.9
15.5


16.2
18.0
19.7
21.6
24.4
20. 2
17.8
17.7
16.2
15.3
15.9
17.7


16.5
19.3
22.0
24.0
27.0
26.7
20.3
18.6
16.5
15.6
16. 1
1U.1


IAmerages of prices in first half of month.
2Five-year average, 1936-40 for turkeys (actual price and percentage of parity).


1 1 I I


I 1



















Table 4.- Poultry and eggs: Cash income, price ratios, cost of feeds used
in poultry ration and index numbers of related series


Caah Farm Price ratio Index numbers Retail prices
olele pric. Cost of
ear Total es pices. Farm prices feed Indicated base period = 100
and from oultry used In Chi Oickens Eggs
fo Poultry rm e Priced (ritly
math f*ou and Feed- Feed- pultrm hole p Paidby Non-agr. (Roasate) (strictly
market- eggs broiler Iht ed- Feed- Feed- ration d fea cultural ES S
nu tr r d e hicn G food includ. employees .
(Barred (to e egg chicken turkey (per prices prices in. in- coepena.
ck) Rock) 100 Ib.) (ES) (aE.S) terest tion
& taxes

Million Million Pounds Pounds Dozen Pounds Pounds Dollars 193539 193539 191014 192429 Cents Cents
dollars dollars chicken chicken eggs chicken turAey per Iba. per dos.


667
550
610
665
747
773
889
1. 101
1.298
1.442
1.213
1, 150


56
45
56
72
83
86
94
88
87
98
123
117


6.5
6.2
5.9
6. 2
7. 1
7.7
7. 1
7.7
8.4
7.9
8.3
8.7






9.3
17.9


5.8
6.8
7. 1
6.3
6.4
5.7
5.4
5.2
4.9
4.4
3.9
4.3





5.0
26.0


8.4
8. 1
8.0
7.9
7.9
8.1
8.2
8.5
9.0
8.7
9.0
9.3





9.3
29.0


7.4
7.5
1.6
8.0
8.4
8.6
8.7
8.6
8.4
7.4
6.9
7.0





7.7
27.7


1.15
1. 14
L 16
1.24
1.29
1.33
1.37
1.39
1.47
1.40
1.39
1.47






1.56


93. 2
92.9
95. 1
98.5
100.5
105. I
107. I
110. 2
113. 1
112.4
112.9
114.4


97.8
97.9
9q. 4
100.6
102. 1
105.9
106. 7
108.0
110.7
111.6
113. 1
113. 1


118.5 116. 2


115. 2
117.5
119.9
121.9
126.7
130.6
128. 1
130.6
134.9
138.0
137.9
142.6


Ten year averages 1931-40


603
402
527
515
547
577
699
733
865
1.001
839
721


49
43
48
61
65
66
75
74
72
67
82
71


6.9
6.5
6. 0
6. 1
6. 2
6.7
7.3
7.7
7.7
6.9
6.8
7.5


7.3
6.4
5. 1
4.9
5.5
5.6
6.4
7.3
8. 1
8.0
8.0
3.0


7.9
8. 2
B.2
8.7
9. 1
9.2
9.4
9.2
8.8
7.7
7.4
7.6


I. 13
1. 14
1.13
1.18
1.20
I. 17
1.22
1.21
1. 21
1.11
1.08
1.10


93.0
92.3
91.7
91.3
90.7
91. 2
92.6
93.6
95.4
94.0
93.8
92.9


96.7
95.9
95.6
95.7
95.7
96. 1
97.0
97.0
98.2
97. 2
96.3
95.7


.....L L A. A _________ t A & J


29.5
29.7
30. 1
30.5
30.8
30.5
30. 3
30. 2
30.3
29.2
28.5
2. .3


35.2
31.2
28.7
27.6
27.8
28.5
31.0
33.5
37.2
39.9
42.0
39.6


IBased on verages for first half of month.

Sti ated.


1941
Jan.
Feb.
Abr.
Apr.
Aby
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
act.


Dec.




1942
Jan.
Feb.


I I I


I B


I








.. .. .. .. .. II. II .ill .. i. H i...l .




S3 1262 08904 I